Search results for: area under the ROC curve

Authors: Caio E. G. Reis, Jose G. Dórea, Teresa H. M. da Costa

Abstract:

Objective: Epidemiological data shows an inverse association of coffee consumption with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, the clinical effects of coffee consumption on the glucose metabolism biomarkers remain controversial. Thus, this paper reviews clinical trials that evaluated the effects of coffee consumption on glucose metabolism. Research Design and Methods: We identified studies published until December 2014 by searching electronic databases and reference lists. We included randomized clinical trials which the intervention group received caffeinated and/or decaffeinated coffee and the control group received water or placebo treatments and measured biomarkers of glucose metabolism. The Jadad Score was applied to evaluate the quality of the studies whereas studies that scored ≥ 3 points were considered for the analyses. Results: Seven clinical trials (total of 237 subjects) were analyzed involving adult healthy, overweight and diabetic subjects. The studies were divided in short-term (1 to 3h) and long-term (2 to 16 weeks) duration. The results for short-term studies showed that caffeinated coffee consumption may increase the area under the curve for glucose response, while for long-term studies caffeinated coffee may improve the glycemic metabolism by reducing the glucose curve and increasing insulin response. These results seem to show that the benefits of coffee consumption occur in the long-term as has been shown in the reduction of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk in epidemiological studies. Nevertheless, until the relationship between long-term coffee consumption and type 2 diabetes mellitus is better understood and any mechanism involved identified, it is premature to make claims about coffee preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus. Conclusion: The findings suggest that caffeinated coffee may impairs glucose metabolism in short-term but in the long-term the studies indicate reduction of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk. More clinical trials with comparable methodology are needed to unravel this paradox.

Keywords: coffee, diabetes mellitus type 2, glucose, insulin

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Authors: Thipayasothorn Pastraporn, Phonpakdee Rachadakorn, Ponpo Sopar

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Forage production area development in Bangkok Metropolitan Region with an Agriculture in the city concept. Food chain of city man reduced distance of the food, so the food chain was a good attempt to connect the city’s product with the changes in each area of city. This paper purposed (I) to study the problems of using forage production area development in Bangkok Metropolitan Region, (II) to propose guidelines of forage production area development in Bangkok Metropolitan Region. We collected the data by questionnaire which we got from the agriculture, marketing and city plan sector in Bangkok Metropolitan Region. We analyzed the questionnaire in the way of relationship and guidelines of forage production area development in Bangkok Metropolitan Region. Results from the analyses are that the role of forage area productive plan in Bangkok Metropolitan Region is important to the cities for adapting in changing way of the food transmission. It also enhanced benefits using from cities fringe. Moreover, it managed watercourse and reduced energy consumption in order to sustainable distribute the food into the cities. .

Keywords: city plan, forage production area, urban development, Bangkok Metropolitan Region

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Authors: Prachi Singh

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This paper presents a low-cost, eco-friendly and reproducible microbe mediated biosynthesis of TiO₂ nanoparticles. TiO₂ nanoparticles synthesized using the bacterium, Bacillus subtilis, from titanium as a precursor, were confirmed by TEM analysis. The morphological characteristics state spherical shape, with the size of individual or aggregate nanoparticles, around 30-40 nm. Microbial resistance represents a challenge for the scientific community to develop new bioactive compounds. Here, the antibacterial effect of TiO₂ nanoparticles on Escherichia coli was investigated, which was confirmed by CFU (Colony-forming unit). Further, growth curve study of E. coli Hb101 in the presence and absence of TiO₂ nanoparticles was done. Optical density decrease was observed with the increase in the concentration of TiO₂. It could be attributed to the inactivation of cellular enzymes and DNA by binding to electron-donating groups such as carboxylates, amides, indoles, hydroxyls, thiols, etc. which cause little pores in bacterial cell walls, leading to increased permeability and cell death. This justifies that TiO₂ nanoparticles have efficient antibacterial effect and have potential to be used as an antibacterial agent for different purposes.

Keywords: antibacterial effect, CFU, Escherichia coli Hb101, growth curve, TEM, TiO2 nanoparticle, Toxicity, UV-Vis

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Authors: Bhavita S. Dave, Jaimin Vaidya, Chandresh H. Solanki, Atul K.

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To measure the permeability of a soil specimen, one of the basic assumptions of Darcy's law is that the soil sample should be saturated. Unlike saturated soils, the permeability of unsaturated soils cannot be found using conventional methods as it does not follow Darcy's law. Many empirical models, such as the Van Genuchten Model and Fredlund-Xing Model were suggested to predict permeability value for unsaturated soil. Such models use data from the soil-freezing characteristic curve to find fitting parameters for frozen unsaturated soils. In this study, soil specimens were subjected to 0, 1, 3, and 5 freezing-thawing (F-T) cycles for different degrees of saturation to have a wide range of suction, and its soil freezing characteristic curves were formulated for all F-T cycles. Changes in fitting parameters and relative permeability with subsequent F-T cycles are presented in this paper for both models.

Keywords: frozen unsaturated soil, Fredlund Xing model, soil-freezing characteristic curve, Van Genuchten model

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Authors: Yagya Murti Aryal, Bipin Adhikari, Pradeep Gyawali

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The Lesser Himalaya zone of Nepal consists of thrusting and folding belts, which play an important role in the sustainable management of groundwater in the Himalayan regions. The study area is located in the Dolakha and Ramechhap Districts of Bagmati Province, Nepal. Geologically, these districts are situated in the Lesser Himalayas and partly encompass the Higher Himalayan rock sequence, which includes low-grade to high-grade metamorphic rocks. Following the Gorkha Earthquake in 2015, numerous springs dried up, and many others are currently experiencing depletion due to the distortion of the natural groundwater flow. The primary objective of this study is to identify potential groundwater areas and determine suitable sites for artificial groundwater recharge. Two distinct statistical approaches were used to develop models: The Frequency Ratio (FR) and Shannon Entropy (SE) methods. The study utilized both primary and secondary datasets and incorporated significant role and controlling factors derived from field works and literature reviews. Field data collection involved spring inventory, soil analysis, lithology assessment, and hydro-geomorphology study. Additionally, slope, aspect, drainage density, and lineament density were extracted from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using GIS and transformed into thematic layers. For training and validation, 114 springs were divided into a 70/30 ratio, with an equal number of non-spring pixels. After assigning weights to each class based on the two proposed models, a groundwater potential map was generated using GIS, classifying the area into five levels: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The model's outcome reveals that over 41% of the area falls into the low and very low potential categories, while only 30% of the area demonstrates a high probability of groundwater potential. To evaluate model performance, accuracy was assessed using the Area under the Curve (AUC). The success rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were determined to be 78.73% and 77.09%, respectively. Additionally, the prediction rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were calculated as 76.31% and 74.08%. The results indicate that the FR model exhibits greater prediction capability compared to the SE model in this case study.

Keywords: groundwater potential mapping, frequency ratio, Shannon’s Entropy, Lesser Himalaya Zone, sustainable groundwater management

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Authors: Luiz G. Véras, Felipe L. Medeiros, Lamartine F. Guimarães

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This work approaches the automatic planning of paths for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) through the application of the Rapidly Exploring Random Tree Star-Smart (RRT*-Smart) algorithm. RRT*-Smart is a sampling process of positions of a navigation environment through a tree-type graph. The algorithm consists of randomly expanding a tree from an initial position (root node) until one of its branches reaches the final position of the path to be planned. The algorithm ensures the planning of the shortest path, considering the number of iterations tending to infinity. When a new node is inserted into the tree, each neighbor node of the new node is connected to it, if and only if the extension of the path between the root node and that neighbor node, with this new connection, is less than the current extension of the path between those two nodes. RRT*-smart uses an intelligent sampling strategy to plan less extensive routes by spending a smaller number of iterations. This strategy is based on the creation of samples/nodes near to the convex vertices of the navigation environment obstacles. The planned paths are smoothed through the application of the method called quintic pythagorean hodograph curves. The smoothing process converts a route into a dynamically-viable one based on the kinematic constraints of the vehicle. This smoothing method models the hodograph components of a curve with polynomials that obey the Pythagorean Theorem. Its advantage is that the obtained structure allows computation of the curve length in an exact way, without the need for quadratural techniques for the resolution of integrals.

Keywords: path planning, path smoothing, Pythagorean hodograph curve, RRT*-Smart

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Authors: Reza Abbasi, Ahmad Hamidi Benam

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Shell structures have many geometrical variables that modify some of these parameters to improve the mechanical behavior of the shell. On the other hand, the behavior of such structures depends on their geometry rather than on mass. Optimization techniques are useful in finding the geometrical shape of shell structures to improve mechanical behavior, especially to prevent or reduce bending anchors. The overall objective of this research is to optimize the shape of concrete shells using the thickness and height parameters along the reference curve and the overall shape of this curve. To implement the proposed scheme, the geometry of the structure was formulated using nonlinear curves. Shell optimization was performed under equivalent static loading conditions using the modified bird community algorithm. The results of this optimization show that without disrupting the initial design and with slight changes in the shell geometry, the structural behavior is significantly improved.

Keywords: concrete shells, shape optimization, spinless curves, modified particle community algorithm

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Authors: Lenka Bodnárová, Rudolf Hela, Michala Hubertová, Iveta Nováková

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This paper is concerning the issues of behaviour of lightweight expanded clay aggregates concrete exposed to high temperature. Lightweight aggregates from expanded clay are produced by firing of row material up to temperature 1050°C. Lightweight aggregates have suitable properties in terms of volume stability, when exposed to temperatures up to 1050°C, which could indicate their suitability for construction applications with higher risk of fire. The test samples were exposed to heat by using the standard temperature-time curve ISO 834. Negative changes in resulting mechanical properties, such as compressive strength, tensile strength, and flexural strength were evaluated. Also visual evaluation of the specimen was performed. On specimen exposed to excessive heat, an explosive spalling could be observed, due to evaporation of considerable amount of unbounded water from the inner structure of the concrete.

Keywords: expanded clay aggregate, explosive spalling, high temperature, lightweight concrete, temperature-time curve ISO 834

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Authors: Hamed Mohamed Haggag

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Prior to 12 November 1955, no earthquakes have been reported from the Abu Dabbab area in the International Seismological Center catalogue (ISC). The largest earthquake in Abu Dabbab area occurred on November 12, 1955 with magnitude Mb 6.0. The closest station from the epicenter was at Helwan (about 700 km to the north), so the depth of this event is not constrained and no foreshocks or aftershocks were recorded. Two other earthquakes of magnitude Mb 4.5 and 5.2 took place in the same area on March 02, 1982 and July 02, 1984, respectively. Since the installation of Aswan Seismic Network stations in 1982, (250-300 km to the south-west of Abu Dabbab area) then the Egyptian Natoinal Seismic Network stations, it was possible to record some activity from Abu Dabbab area. The recorded earthquakes at Abu Dabbab area as recorded from 1982 to 2014 shows that the earthquake epicenters are distributed in the same direction of the main trends of the faults in the area, which is parallel to the Red Sea coast. The spectral analysis was made for some earthquakes. The source parameters, seismic moment (Mo), source dimension (r), stress drop (Δδ), and apparent stress (δ) are determined for these events. The spectral analysis technique was completed using MAG software program.

Keywords: Abu Dabbab, seismicity, seismic moment, source parameter

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Authors: Mohamed Yousef, Magdy Samuel, Maha El-Meligy, Taher El-Bitar

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The present work is dealing with 2% Si-steel alloy. The alloy contains 0.05% C as well as 0.85% Al. The alloy under investigation would be used for electrical transformation purposes. A heating (expansion) - cooling (contraction) dilation investigation was executed to detect the a, a+g, and g transformation temperatures at the inflection points of the dilation curve. On heating, primary a  was detected at a temperature range between room temperature and 687 ^oC. The domain of a+g was detected in the range between 687 ^oC and 746 ^oC. g phase exists in the closed g region at the range between 746 ^oC and 1043 ^oC. The domain of a phase appears again at a temperature range between 1043 and 1105 ^oC, and followed by secondary a at temperature higher than 1105 ^oC. A physical simulation of thermo-mechanical processing on the as-cast alloy was carried out. The simulation process took into consideration the hot flat rolling pilot plant parameters. The process was executed on the thermo-mechanical simulator (Gleeble 3500). The process was designed to include seven consecutive passes. The 1^st pass represents the roughing stage, while the remaining six passes represent finish rolling stage. The whole process was executed at the temperature range from 1100 ^oC to 900 ^oC. The amount of strain starts with 23.5% at the roughing pass and decreases continuously to reach 7.5 % at the last finishing pass. The flow curve of the alloy can be abstracted from the stress-strain curves representing simulated passes. It shows alloy hardening from a pass to the other up to pass no. 6, as a result of decreasing the deformation temperature and increasing of cumulative strain. After pass no. 6, the deformation process enhances the dynamic recrystallization phenomena to appear, where the z-parameter would be high.

Keywords: si- steel, hot deformability, critical transformation temperature, physical simulation, thermo-mechanical processing, flow curve, dynamic softening.

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Authors: Mecheri Zeid Belmecheri, Maamar Ahfir, Izzet Kale

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Automatic cardiac auscultation is still a subject of research in order to establish an objective diagnosis. Recorded heart sounds as Phonocardiogram signals (PCG) can be used for automatic segmentation into components that have clinical meanings. These are the first sound, S1, the second sound, S2, and the systolic and diastolic components, respectively. In this paper, an automatic method is proposed for the robust segmentation of heart sounds. This method is based on calculating an intermediate sawtooth-shaped signal from the length variation of the recorded Phonocardiogram (PCG) signal in the time domain and, using its positive derivative function that is a binary signal in training a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Results obtained in the context of a large database of recorded PCGs with their simultaneously recorded ElectroCardioGrams (ECGs) from different patients in clinical settings, including normal and abnormal subjects, show a segmentation testing performance average of 76 % sensitivity and 94 % specificity.

Keywords: heart sounds, PCG segmentation, event detection, recurrent neural networks, PCG curve length

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Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege

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To interpolate scattered or regularly distributed data, there are imprecise or exact methods. However, there are some of these methods that could be used for interpolating data in a regular grid and others in an irregular grid. In spatial epidemiology, it is important to examine how a disease prevalence rates are distributed in space, and how they relate with each other within a defined distance and direction. In this study, for the geographic and graphic representation of the disease prevalence, linear and biharmonic spline methods were implemented in MATLAB, and used to identify, localize and compare for smoothing in the distribution patterns of tuberculosis (TB) in Eastern Cape Province. The aim of this study is to produce a more “smooth” graphical disease map for TB prevalence patterns by a 3-D curve fitting techniques, especially the biharmonic splines that can suppress noise easily, by seeking a least-squares fit rather than exact interpolation. The datasets are represented generally as a 3D or XYZ triplets, where X and Y are the spatial coordinates and Z is the variable of interest and in this case, TB counts in the province. This smoothing spline is a method of fitting a smooth curve to a set of noisy observations using a spline function, and it has also become the conventional method for its high precision, simplicity and flexibility. Surface and contour plots are produced for the TB prevalence at the provincial level for 2012 – 2015. From the results, the general outlook of all the fittings showed a systematic pattern in the distribution of TB cases in the province and this is consistent with some spatial statistical analyses carried out in the province. This new method is rarely used in disease mapping applications, but it has a superior advantage to be assessed at subjective locations rather than only on a rectangular grid as seen in most traditional GIS methods of geospatial analyses.

Keywords: linear, biharmonic splines, tuberculosis, South Africa

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Authors: Emilio A. Berny-Brandt, Sonia E. Ruiz

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Steel tubular towers serving as support structures for large wind turbines are subject to several hundred million stress cycles arising from the turbulent nature of the wind. This causes high-cycle fatigue which can govern tower design. The practice of maintaining the support structure after wind turbines reach its typical 20-year design life have become common, but without quantifying the changes in the reliability on the tower. There are several studies on this topic, but most of them are based on the S-N curve approach using the Miner’s rule damage summation method, the de-facto standard in the wind industry. However, the qualitative nature of Miner’s method makes desirable the use of fracture mechanics to measure the effects of fatigue in the capacity curve of the structure, which is important in order to evaluate the integrity and reliability of these towers. Temporal and spatially varying wind speed time histories are simulated based on power spectral density and coherence functions. Simulations are then applied to a SAP2000 finite element model and step-by-step analysis is used to obtain the stress time histories for a range of representative wind speeds expected during service conditions of the wind turbine. Rainflow method is then used to obtain cycle and stress range information of each of these time histories and a statistical analysis is performed to obtain the distribution parameters of each variable. Monte Carlo simulation is used here to evaluate crack growth over time in the tower base using the Paris-Erdogan equation. A nonlinear static pushover analysis to assess the capacity curve of the structure after a number of years is performed. The capacity curves are then used to evaluate the changes in reliability of a steel tower located in Oaxaca, Mexico, where wind energy facilities are expected to grow in the near future. Results show that fatigue on the tower base can have significant effects on the structural capacity of the wind turbine, especially after the 20-year design life when the crack growth curve starts behaving exponentially.

Keywords: crack growth, fatigue, Monte Carlo simulation, structural reliability, wind turbines

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Authors: Conrad Weber

Abstract:

The modelling of railway noise over large projects areas can be very time consuming in terms of preparing the noise models and calculation time. An open-source GIS program has been utilised to assist with the modelling of operational noise levels for 675km of railway corridor. A range of GIS algorithms were utilised to break up the noise model area into manageable calculation sizes. GIS was utilised to prepare and filter a range of noise modelling inputs, including building files, land uses and ground terrain. A spreadsheet was utilised to manage the accuracy of key input parameters, including train speeds, train types, curve corrections, bridge corrections and engine notch settings. GIS was utilised to present the final noise modelling results. This paper explains the noise modelling process and how the spreadsheet and GIS were utilised to accurately model this massive project efficiently.

Keywords: noise, modeling, GIS, rail

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Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo

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There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.

Keywords: chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone, least squares method, regression models

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Authors: Daoudi Abdelaziz, Mahmoudi Saïd, Chikh Mohamed Amine

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This paper presents a fully automatic segmentation method of the left ventricle at End Systolic (ES) and End Diastolic (ED) in the ultrasound images by means of an implicit deformable model (level set) based on Geodesic Active Contour model. A pre-processing Gaussian smoothing stage is applied to the image, which is essential for a good segmentation. Before the segmentation phase, we locate automatically the area of the left ventricle by using a detection approach based on the Hough Transform method. Consequently, the result obtained is used to automate the initialization of the level set model. This initial curve (zero level set) deforms to search the Endocardial border in the image. On the other hand, quantitative evaluation was performed on a data set composed of 15 subjects with a comparison to ground truth (manual segmentation).

Keywords: level set method, transform Hough, Gaussian smoothing, left ventricle, ultrasound images.

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Authors: Mahdi Fakoor, Hannaneh Manafi Farid

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In order to predict the fracture behavior of cracked orthotropic materials under mixed-mode loading, well-known minimum strain energy density (SED) criterion is extended. The crack is subjected along the fibers at plane strain conditions. Despite the complicities to solve the nonlinear equations which are requirements of SED criterion, SED criterion for anisotropic materials is derived. In the present research, fracture limit curve of SED criterion is depicted by a numerical solution, hence the direction of crack growth is figured out by derived criterion, MSED. The validated MSED demonstrates the improvement in prediction of fracture behavior of the materials. Also, damaged factor that plays a crucial role in the fracture behavior of quasi-brittle materials is derived from this criterion and proved its dependency on mechanical properties and direction of crack growth.

Keywords: mixed-mode fracture, minimum strain energy density criterion, orthotropic materials, fracture limit curve, mode II critical stress intensity factor

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Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Dasharath Koulage, Dattatray Manerikar, Asmita Ghate

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This paper presents an additive reliability model using warranty data and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) data. Warranty data for any product gives insight to its underlying issues. This is often used by Reliability Engineers to build prediction model to forecast failure rate of parts. But there is one major limitation in using warranty data for prediction. Warranty periods constitute only a small fraction of total lifetime of a product, most of the time it covers only the infant mortality and useful life zone of a bathtub curve. Predicting with warranty data alone in these cases is not generally provide results with desired accuracy. Failure rate of a mechanical part is driven by random issues initially and wear-out or usage related issues at later stages of the lifetime. For better predictability of failure rate, one need to explore the failure rate behavior at wear out zone of a bathtub curve. Due to cost and time constraints, it is not always possible to test samples till failure, but FEA-Fatigue analysis can provide the failure rate behavior of a part much beyond warranty period in a quicker time and at lesser cost. In this work, the authors proposed an Additive Weibull Model, which make use of both warranty and FEA fatigue analysis data for predicting failure rates. It involves modeling of two data sets of a part, one with existing warranty claims and other with fatigue life data. Hazard rate base Weibull estimation has been used for the modeling the warranty data whereas S-N curved based Weibull parameter estimation is used for FEA data. Two separate Weibull models’ parameters are estimated and combined to form the proposed Additive Weibull Model for prediction.

Keywords: bathtub curve, fatigue, FEA, reliability, warranty, Weibull

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Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

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Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, Monte Carlo, simulation, wind turbine

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Authors: Sidharth Talan, Rajlakshmi G. Majumdar

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Problem-solving skill is one the few skills which is constantly endeavored to improve upon by the professionals and academicians around the world in order to sustain themselves in the ever-growing competitive environment. The given paper focuses on evaluating a hypothesized relationship between the problems solving efficiency of an individual with spaced repetitions, conducted with a time interval of one day over a period of two weeks. The paper has utilized uni-variate regression analysis technique to assess the best fit curve that can explain the significant relationship between the given two variables. The paper has incorporated Anagrams solving as the appropriate testing process for the analysis. Since Anagrams solving involves rearranging a jumbled word to form a correct word, it projects to be an efficient process to observe the attention span, visual- motor coordination and the verbal ability of an individual. Based on the analysis for a sample population of 30, it was observed that problem-solving efficiency of an individual, measured in terms of the score in each test was found to be significantly correlated with time period measured in days.

Keywords: Anagrams, histogram plot, moving average curve, spacing effect

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Authors: Atin Mukherjee, Amitabha Sinha, Debesh Choudhury

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Fast Fourier transform (FFT) of large-number of samples requires larger hardware resources of field programmable gate arrays and it asks for more area as well as power. In this paper, an area efficient architecture of FFT processor is proposed, that reuses the butterfly units more than once. The FFT processor is emulated and the results are validated on Virtex-6 FPGA. The proposed architecture outperforms the conventional architecture of a N-point FFT processor in terms of area which is reduced by a factor of log_N(2) with the negligible increase of processing time.

Keywords: FFT, FPGA, resource optimization, butterfly units

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Authors: Aziza Barrek, Mohamed Haythem Msaddek, Ismail Chenini

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Excessive groundwater pumping due to the increasing water demand, especially in the agricultural sector, causes groundwater scarcity. Groundwater recharge is the most important process that contributes to the water's durability. This paper is based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process multicriteria analysis to establish a groundwater recharge susceptibility map. To delineate aquifer suitability for groundwater recharge, eight parameters were used: soil type, land cover, drainage density, lithology, NDVI, slope, transmissivity, and rainfall. The impact of each factor was weighted. This method was applied to the El Fahs plain shallow aquifer. Results suggest that 37% of the aquifer area has very good and good recharge suitability. The results have been validated by the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve. The accuracy of the prediction obtained was 89.3%.

Keywords: AHP, El Fahs aquifer, empirical formula, groundwater recharge zone, remote sensing, semi-arid region

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Authors: Mario Gómez, José Carlos Rodríguez

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to test the causality relationship between economic activity, trade openness and carbon dioxide emissions in Mexico (1971-2011). The results achieved in this research show that there are three long-run relationships between production, trade openness, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The EKC hypothesis was not verified in this research. Indeed, it was found evidence of a short-term unidirectional causality from GDP and GDP squared to carbon dioxide emissions, from GDP, GDP squared and TO to EC, and bidirectional causality between TO and GDP. Finally, it was found evidence of long-term unidirectional causality from all variables to carbon emissions. These results suggest that a reduction in energy consumption, economic activity, or an increase in trade openness would reduce pollution.

Keywords: causality, cointegration, energy consumption, economic growth, environmental Kuznets curve

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Authors: Sanpachai Huvanandana, Settapong Malisuwan, Soparwan Tongyuak, Prust Pannachet, Anong Phoepueak, Navneet Madan

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Many regions of Thailand are prone to flooding due to tropical climate. A commonly increasing precipitation in this continent results in risk of flooding. Many efforts have been implemented such as drainage control system, multiple dams, and irrigation canals. In order to decide where the drainages, dams, and canal should be appropriately located, the flooding risk area should be determined. This paper is aimed to identify the appropriate features that can be used to classify the flooding risk area in Thailand. Several features have been analyzed and used to classify the area. Non-supervised clustering techniques have been used and the results have been compared with ten years average actual flooding area.

Keywords: flood area clustering, geographical information system, flood features

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Authors: Peter W. Woodruff, Georgios Ponirakis, Reem Ibrahim, Amani Ahmed, Hoda Gad, Ioannis N. Petropoulos, Adnan Khan, Ahmed Elsotouhy, Surjith Vattoth, Mahmoud K. M. Alshawwaf, Mohamed Adil Shah Khoodoruth, Marwan Ramadan, Anjushri Bhagat, James Currie, Ziyad Mahfoud, Hanadi Al Hamad, Ahmed Own, Peter Haddad, Majid Alabdulla, Rayaz A. Malik

Abstract:

Introduction:- We aimed to test the hypothesis that, using corneal confocal microscopy (a non-invasive method for assessing corneal nerve fibre integrity), patients with schizophrenia would show neuronal abnormalities compared with healthy participants. Schizophrenia is a neurodevelopmental and progressive neurodegenerative disease, for which there are no validated biomarkers. Corneal confocal microscopy (CCM) is a non-invasive ophthalmic imaging biomarker that can be used to detect neuronal abnormalities in neuropsychiatric syndromes. Methods:- Patients with schizophrenia (DSM-V criteria) without other causes of peripheral neuropathy and healthy controls underwent CCM, vibration perception threshold (VPT) and sudomotor function testing. The diagnostic accuracy of CCM in distinguishing patients from controls was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characterstics (ROC) curve. Findings:- Participants with schizophrenia (n=17) and controls (n=38) with comparable age (35.7±8.5 vs 35.6±12.2, P=0.96) were recruited. Patients with schizophrenia had significantly higher body weight (93.9±25.5 vs 77.1±10.1, P=0.02), lower Low Density Lipoproteins (2.6±1.0 vs 3.4±0.7, P=0.02), but comparable systolic and diastolic blood pressure, HbA1c, total cholesterol, triglycerides and High Density Lipoproteins were comparable with control participants. Patients with schizophrenia had significantly lower corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD, fibers/mm2) (23.5±7.8 vs 35.6±6.5, p<0.0001), branch density (CNBD, branches/mm2) (34.4±26.9 vs 98.1±30.6, p<0.0001), and fiber length (CNFL, mm/mm2) (14.3±4.7 vs 24.2±3.9, p<0.0001) but no difference in VPT (6.1±3.1 vs 4.5±2.8, p=0.12) and electrochemical skin conductance (61.0±24.0 vs 68.9±12.3, p=0.23) compared with controls. The diagnostic accuracy of CNFD, CNBD and CNFL to distinguish patients with schizophrenia from healthy controls were, according to the AUC, (95% CI): 87.0% (76.8-98.2), 93.2% (84.2-102.3), 93.2% (84.4-102.1), respectively. Conclusion:- In conclusion, CCM can be used to help identify neuronal changes and has a high diagnostic accuracy to distinguish subjects with schizophrenia from healthy controls.

Keywords:

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Gerardo Casal, Miguel E. Vázquez-Méndez

Abstract:

The clothoid (also known as Cornu spiral or Euler spiral) is a curve that is characterized because its curvature is proportional to its length. This property makes that it would be widely used as transition curve for designing the layout of roads and railway tracks. In this work, from the geometrical property characterizing the clothoid, its parametric equations are obtained and two algorithms to compute it are compared. The first (classical), is widely used in Surveying Schools and it is based on the use of explicit formulas obtained from Taylor expansions of sine and cosine functions. The second one (alternative) is a very simple algorithm, based on the numerical solution of the initial value problems giving the clothoid parameterization. Both methods are compared in some typical surveying problems. The alternative method does not use complex formulas and so it is conceptually very simple and easy to apply. It gives good results, even if the classical method goes wrong (if the quotient between length and radius of curvature is high), needs no subsequent translations nor rotations and, consequently, it seems an efficient tool for designing the layout of roads and railway tracks.

Keywords: transition curves, railroad and highway engineering, Runge-Kutta methods

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

Abstract:

Diabetes in India is growing at an alarming rate and the complications caused by it need to be controlled. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the complications that will be discussed for prediction in this study. India has the second most number of diabetes patients in the world. To the best of our knowledge, there is no CHD risk score for Indian type 2 diabetes patients. Any form of CHD has been taken as the event of interest. A sample of 750 was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of CHD. Predictive risk scores of CHD events are designed by cox proportional hazard regression. Model calibration and discrimination is assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Overfitting and underfitting of the model is checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Youden’s index is used to choose the optimal cut off point from the scores. Five year probability of CHD is predicted by both survival function and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores for CHD developed can be calculated by doctors and patients for self-control of diabetes. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be implemented as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, cox proportional hazard regression, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes Mellitus

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Authors: Pooja Seth, Shruti Aggarwal

Abstract:

The Europium (Eu) doped (0.02-0.1 wt %) lithium fluoride (LiF) crystal in the form of multicrystalline sheet was gown by the edge defined film fed growth (EFG) technique. Crystals were grown in argon gas atmosphere using graphite crucible and stainless steel die. The systematic incorporation of Eu inside the host LiF lattice was confirmed by X-ray diffractometry. Thermoluminescence (TL) glow curve was recorded on annealed (AN) crystals after irradiation with a gamma dose of 15 Gy. The effect of different concentration of Eu in enhancing the thermoluminescence (TL) intensity of LiF was studied. The normalized peak height of the Eu-doped LiF crystal was nearly 12 times that of the LiF crystals. The optimized concentration of Eu in LiF was found to be 0.05wt% at which maximum TL intensity was observed with main TL peak positioned at 185 °C. At higher concentration TL intensity decreases due to the formation of precipitates in the form of clusters or aggregates. The nature of the energy traps in Eu doped LiF was analysed through glow curve deconvolution. The trap depth was found to be in the range of 0.2 – 0.5 eV. These results showed that doping with Eu enhances the TL intensity by creating more defect sites for capturing of electron and holes during irradiation which might be useful for dosimetry application.

Keywords: thermoluminescence, defects, gamma radiation, crystals

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Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

Abstract:

Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

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Authors: Wei Zhao, Yuxuan Yao, Hao Chen

Abstract:

In order to find out the mechanical properties and failure behavior of lithium-ion batteries, drop hammer impact experiments and finite element simulations are carried out on batteries with different packed angles. Firstly, a drop hammer impact experiment system, which is based on the DHR-1808 drop hammer and oscilloscope, is established, and then a drop test of individual batteries and packed angles of 180 ° and 120 ° are carried out. The image of battery deformation, force-time curve and voltage-time curve are recorded. Secondly, finite element models of individual batteries and two packed angles are established, and the results of the test and simulation are compared. Finally, the mechanical characteristics and failure behavior of lithium-ion battery modules with the packed arrangement of 6 * 6 and packing angles of 180 °, 120 °, 90 ° and 60 ° are analyzed under the same velocity with different battery packing angles, and the same impact energy with different impact velocity and different packing angles. The result shows that the individual battery is destroyed completely in the drop hammer impact test with an initial impact velocity of 3m/s and drop height of 459mm, and the voltage drops to close to 0V when the test ends. The voltage drops to 12V when packed angle of 180°, and 3.6V when packed angle of 120°. It is found that the trend of the force-time curve between simulation and experiment is generally consistent. The difference in maximum peak value is 3.9kN for a packing angle of 180° and 1.3kN for a packing angle of 120°. Under the same impact velocity and impact energy, the strain rate of the battery module with a packing angle of 180° is the lowest, and the maximum stress can reach 26.7MPa with no battery short-circuited. The research under our experiment and simulation shows that the lithium-ion battery module with a packing angle of 180 ° is the least likely to be damaged, which can sustain the maximum stress under the same impact load.

Keywords: battery module, finite element simulation, power battery, packing angle

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