Search results for: paper sensor

Authors: Dhouibi Mohamed, Stirbu Bogdan, Chabotier André, Pirlot Marc

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Effects of erosion and wear on the performance of small caliber guns have been analyzed throughout numerical and experimental studies. Mainly, qualitative observations were performed. Correlations between the volume change of the chamber and the maximum pressure are limited. This paper focuses on the development of a numerical model to predict the maximum pressure evolution when the interior shape of the chamber changes in the different weapon’s life phases. To fulfill this goal, an experimental campaign, followed by a numerical simulation study, is carried out. Two test barrels, « 5.56x45mm NATO » and « 7.62x51mm NATO,» are considered. First, a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) with a contact scanning probe is used to measure the interior profile of the barrels after each 300-shots cycle until their worn out. Simultaneously, the EPVAT (Electronic Pressure Velocity and Action Time) method with a special WEIBEL radar are used to measure: (i) the chamber pressure, (ii) the action time, (iii) and the bullet velocity in each barrel. Second, a numerical simulation study is carried out. Thus, a coupled interior ballistic model is developed using the dynamic finite element program LS-DYNA. In this work, two different models are elaborated: (i) coupled Eularien Lagrangian method using fluid-structure interaction (FSI) techniques and a coupled thermo-mechanical finite element using a lumped parameter model (LPM) as a subroutine. Those numerical models are validated and checked through three experimental results, such as (i) the muzzle velocity, (ii) the chamber pressure, and (iii) the surface morphology of fired projectiles. Results show a good agreement between experiments and numerical simulations. Next, a comparison between the two models is conducted. The projectile motions, the dynamic engraving resistances and the maximum pressures are compared and analyzed. Finally, using this obtained database, a statistical correlation between the muzzle velocity, the maximum pressure and the chamber volume is established.

Keywords: engraving process, finite element analysis, gun barrel erosion, interior ballistics, statistical correlation

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Authors: Alemayehu Muluneh, Saskia Keesstra, Leo Stroosnijder, Woldeamlak Bewket, Ashenafi Burka

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There are some scientific evidences and a belief by many that forests attract rain and deforestation contributes to a decline of rainfall. However, there is still a lack of concrete scientific evidence on the role of forests in rainfall amount. In this paper, we investigate the forest-rainfall relationships in the environmentally hot spot area of the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Specifically, we evaluate long term (1970-2009) rainfall variability and its relationship with historical forest cover and the relationship between existing forest cover and topographical variables and rainfall distribution. The study used 16 long term and 15 short term rainfall stations. The Mann-Kendall test, bi variate and multiple regression models were used. The results show forest and wood land cover continuously declined over the 40 years period (1970-2009), but annual rainfall in the rift valley floor increased by 6.42 mm/year. But, on the escarpment and highlands, annual rainfall decreased by 2.48 mm/year. The increase in annual rainfall in the rift valley floor is partly attributable to the increase in evaporation as a result of increasing temperatures from the 4 existing lakes in the rift valley floor. Though, annual rainfall is decreasing on the escarpment and highlands, there was no significant correlation between this rainfall decrease and forest and wood land decline and also rainfall variability in the region was not explained by forest cover. Hence, the decrease in annual rainfall on the escarpment and highlands is likely related to the global warming of the atmosphere and the surface waters of the Indian Ocean. Spatial variability of number of rainy days from systematically observed two-year’s rainfall data (2012-2013) was significantly (R2=-0.63) explained by forest cover (distance from forest). But, forest cover was not a significant variable (R2=-0.40) in explaining annual rainfall amount. Generally, past deforestation and existing forest cover showed very little effect on long term and short term rainfall distribution, but a significant effect on number of rainy days in the CRV of Ethiopia.

Keywords: elevation, forest cover, rainfall, slope

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Authors: Imad Khan, Imran Shafi, Sarmad Farooq

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Large diameter pipes, barrels, tubes, and ducts are used in a variety of applications covering civil and defense-related technologies. This may include heating/cooling networks, sign poles, bracing, casing, and artillery and tank gun barrels. These large diameter assemblies require regular inspection and cleaning to increase their life and reduce replacement costs. This paper describes the design, development, and testing results of an efficient yet simplified, low maintenance mechanical design controlled with minimal essential electronics using an electric motor for a non-technical staff. The proposed solution provides a simplified user interface and an automated cleaning mechanism that requires a single user to optimally clean pipes and barrels in the range of 105 mm to 203 mm caliber. The proposed system employs linear motion of specially designed brush along the barrel using a chain of specific strength and a pulley anchor attached to both ends of the barrel. A specially designed and manufactured gearbox is coupled with an AC motor to allow movement of contact brush with high torque to allow efficient cleaning. A suitably powered AC motor is fixed to the front adapter mounted on the muzzle side whereas the rear adapter has a pulley-based anchor mounted towards the breach block in case of a gun barrel. A mix of soft nylon and hard copper bristles-based large surface brush is connected through a strong steel chain to motor and anchor pulley. The system is equipped with limit switches to auto switch the direction when one end is reached on its operation. The testing results based on carefully established performance indicators indicate the superiority of the proposed user-friendly cleaning mechanism vis-à-vis its life cycle cost.

Keywords: pipe cleaning mechanism, limiting switch, pipe cleaning robot, large pipes

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Authors: Rosa Tiziana Bruno

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The connection between education and sustainability has been posited to have benefit for realizing a social development compatible with environmental protection. However, an educational paradigm based on the passage of information or on the fear of a catastrophe might not favor the acquisition of eco-identity. To build a sustainable world, it is necessary to "become people" in harmony with other human beings, being aware of belonging to the same human community that is part of the natural world. This can only be achieved within an authentic educating community and the most effective tools for building educating communities are reading literacy and storytelling. This paper is the report of a research-action carried out in this direction, in agreement with the sociology department of the University of Salerno, which involved four hundred children and their teachers in a path based on the combination of reading literacy, storytelling, autobiographical writing and outdoor education. The goal of the research was to create an authentic educational community within the school, capable to encourage the acquisition of an eco-identity by the pupils, that is, personal and relational growth in the full realization of the Self, in harmony with the social and natural environment, with a view to an authentic education for sustainability. To ensure reasonable validity and reliability of findings, the inquiry started with participant observation and a process of triangulation has been used including: semi-structured interview, socio-semiotic analysis of the conversation and time budget. Basically, a multiple independent sources of data was used to answer the questions. Observing the phenomenon through multiple "windows" helped to comparing data through a variety of lenses. All teachers had the experience of implementing a socio-didactic strategy called "Fiabadiario" and they had the possibility to use it with approaches that fit their students. The data being collected come from the very students and teachers who are engaged with this strategy. The educational path tested during the research has produced sustainable relationships and conflict resolution within the school system and between school and families, creating an authentic and sustainable learning community.

Keywords: educating community, education for sustainability, literature in education, social relations

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Authors: Bin Zhou, Tongli Lu, Jianwu Zhang, Hongtao Hao

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Dual clutch transmissions (DCT) offer a high comfort performance in terms of the gearshift. Hydraulic multi-disk clutches are the key components of DCT, its engagement determines the shifting comfort. The prefill of the clutches requests an initial engagement which the clutches just contact against each other but not transmit substantial torque from the engine, this initial clutch engagement point is called the touch point. Open-loop control is typically implemented for the clutch prefill, a lot of uncertainties, such as oil temperature and clutch wear, significantly affects the prefill, probably resulting in an inappropriate touch point. Underfill causes the engine flaring in gearshift while overfill arises clutch tying up, both deteriorating the shifting comfort of DCT. Therefore, it is important to enable an adaptive capacity for the clutch prefills regarding the uncertainties. In this paper, a dynamic model of the hydraulic actuator system is presented, including the variable force solenoid and clutch piston, and validated by a test. Subsequently, the open-loop clutch prefill is simulated based on the proposed model. Two control parameters of the prefill, fast fill time and stable fill pressure is analyzed with regard to the impact on the prefill. The former has great effects on the pressure transients, the latter directly influences the touch point. Finally, an adaptive method is proposed for the clutch prefill during gear shifting, in which clutch fill control parameters are adjusted adaptively and continually. The adaptive strategy is changing the stable fill pressure according to the current clutch slip during a gearshift, improving the next prefill process. The stable fill pressure is increased by means of the clutch slip while underfill and decreased with a constant value for overfill. The entire strategy is designed in the Simulink/Stateflow, and implemented in the transmission control unit with optimization. Road vehicle test results have shown the strategy realized its adaptive capability and proven it improves the shifting comfort.

Keywords: clutch prefill, clutch slip, dual clutch transmission, touch point, variable force solenoid

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Authors: Kayode A. Olaniyi, Tola. M. Osifeko, Adeola A. Ogunleye

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Text line segmentation is an important step in document image processing. It represents a labeling process that assigns the same label using distance metric probability to spatially aligned units. Text line detection techniques have successfully been implemented mainly in printed documents. However, processing of the handwritten texts especially unconstrained documents has remained a key problem. This is because the unconstrained hand-written text lines are often not uniformly skewed. The spaces between text lines may not be obvious, complicated by the nature of handwriting and, overlapping ascenders and/or descenders of some characters. Hence, text lines detection and segmentation represents a leading challenge in handwritten document image processing. Text line detection methods that rely on the traditional global projection profile of the text document cannot efficiently confront with the problem of variable skew angles between different text lines. Hence, the formulation of a horizontal line as a separator is often not efficient. This paper presents a technique to segment a handwritten document into distinct lines of text. The proposed algorithm starts, by partitioning the initial text image into columns, across its width into chunks of about 5% each. At each vertical strip of 5%, the histogram of horizontal runs is projected. We have worked with the assumption that text appearing in a single strip is almost parallel to each other. The algorithm developed provides a sliding window through the first vertical strip on the left side of the page. It runs through to identify the new minimum corresponding to a valley in the projection profile. Each valley would represent the starting point of the orientation line and the ending point is the minimum point on the projection profile of the next vertical strip. The derived text-lines traverse around any obstructing handwritten vertical strips of connected component by associating it to either the line above or below. A decision of associating such connected component is made by the probability obtained from a distance metric decision. The technique outperforms the global projection profile for text line segmentation and it is robust to handle skewed documents and those with lines running into each other.

Keywords: connected-component, projection-profile, segmentation, text-line

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Authors: Merzak Laribi, Abdelmadjid Kasser

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Thermal spraying processes are widely used to produce coatings on original constructions as well as in repair and maintenance of long standing structures. A lot of efforts forwarding to develop thermal spray coatings technology have been focused on improving mechanical characteristics, minimizing residual stress level and reducing porosity of the coatings. The specific aim of this paper is to determine either residual stresses distribution or wear resistance of stainless steel coating thermally sprayed on a carbon steel substrate. Internal stresses determination was performed using an extensometric method in combination with a simultaneous progressive electrolytic polishing. The procedure consists of measuring micro-deformations using a bi-directional extensometric gauges glued on the substrate side of the materials. Very thin layers of the deposits are removed by electrochemical polishing across the sample surface. Micro-deformations are instantaneously measured, leading to residual stresses calculation after each removal. Wear resistance of the coating has been determined using a ball-on-plate tribometer. Friction coefficient is instantaneously measured during the tribological test. Attention was particularly focused on the influence of a post-annealing at 850 °C for one hour in vacuum either on the residual stresses distribution or on the wear resistance behavior under specific wear and lubrication conditions. The obtained results showed that the microstructure of the obtained arc sprayed stainless steel coating is classical. It is homogeneous and contains un-melted particles, metallic oxides and also pores and micro-cracks. The internal stresses are in compression in the coating. They are more or less scattered between -50 and -270 MPa on the surface and decreased more at the interface. The value at the surface of the substrate is about –700 MPa, partially due to the molten particles impact with the substrate. The post annealing has reduced the residual stresses in both coating and surface of the steel substrate so that the hole material becomes more relaxed. Friction coefficient has an average value of 0.3 and 0.4 respectively for non annealed and annealed specimen. It is rather oil lubrication which is really benefit so that friction coefficient is decreased to about 0.06.

Keywords: residual stresses, wear resistance, stainless steel, coating, thermal spraying, annealing, lubrication

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Authors: Alok Agrawal, Alok Satapathy

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In this paper, an attempt to determine the effective thermal conductivity (keff) of particulate filled polymer composites using finite element method (FEM) a powerful computational technique is made. A commercially available finite element package ANSYS is used for this numerical analysis. Three-dimensional spheres-in-cube lattice array models are constructed to simulate the microstructures of micro-sized particulate filled polymer composites with filler content ranging from 2.35 to 26.8 vol %. Based on the temperature profiles across the composite body, the keff of each composition is estimated theoretically by FEM. Composites with similar filler contents are than fabricated using compression molding technique by reinforcing micro-sized aluminium oxide (Al2O3) in polypropylene (PP) resin. Thermal conductivities of these composite samples are measured according to the ASTM standard E-1530 by using the Unitherm™ Model 2022 tester, which operates on the double guarded heat flow principle. The experimentally measured conductivity values are compared with the numerical values and also with those obtained from existing empirical models. This comparison reveals that the FEM simulated values are found to be in reasonable good agreement with the experimental data. Values obtained from the theoretical model proposed by the authors are also found to be in even closer approximation with the measured values within percolation limit. Further, this study shows that there is gradual enhancement in the conductivity of PP resin with increase in filler percentage and thereby its heat conduction capability is improved. It is noticed that with addition of 26.8 vol % of filler, the keff of composite increases to around 6.3 times that of neat PP. This study validates the proposed model for PP-Al2O3 composite system and proves that finite element analysis can be an excellent methodology for such investigations. With such improved heat conduction ability, these composites can find potential applications in micro-electronics, printed circuit boards, encapsulations etc.

Keywords: analytical modelling, effective thermal conductivity, finite element method, polymer matrix composite

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Authors: Kgabo H. Badimo, Sheryl Buckley

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Knowledge is increasingly recognised in this, the knowledge era, as a strategic resource, by public sector organisations, in view of the public sector reform initiatives. People and knowledge play a vital role in attaining improved organisational performance and high service quality. Many government departments in the public sector have started to realise the importance of knowledge management in streamlining their operations and processes. This study focused on knowledge management in the public healthcare service organisations, where the concept of service provider competitiveness pales to insignificance, considering the huge challenges emanating from the healthcare and public sector reforms. Many government departments are faced with challenges of improving organisational performance and service delivery, improving accountability, making informed decisions, capturing the knowledge of the aging workforce, and enhancing partnerships with stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to examine the knowledge management practices of the Gauteng Department of Health in South Africa, in order to understand how knowledge management practices influence improvement in organisational performance and healthcare service delivery. This issue is explored through a review of literature on dominant views on knowledge management and healthcare service delivery, as well as results of interviews with, and questionnaire responses from, the general staff of the Gauteng Department of Health. Web-based questionnaires, face-to-face interviews and organisational documents were used to collect data. The data were analysed using both the quantitative and qualitative methods. The central question investigated was: To what extent can the conditions required for successful knowledge management be observed, in order to improve organisational performance and healthcare service delivery in the Gauteng Department of Health. The findings showed that the elements of knowledge management capabilities investigated in this study, namely knowledge creation, knowledge sharing and knowledge application, have a positive, significant relationship with all measures of organisational performance and healthcare service delivery. These findings thus indicate that by employing knowledge management principles, the Gauteng Department of Health could improve its ability to achieve its operational goals and objectives, and solve organisational and healthcare challenges, thereby improving organisational.

Keywords: knowledge management, Healthcare Service Delivery, public healthcare, public sector

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Authors: Eranga N. Somaratna, Pradeep Dharmadasa

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In the current competitive environment, the factors leading to organization success are not limited to the investment of capital, labor, and raw material, but in the ability of knowledge innovation from all the members of an organization. However, knowledge on its own cannot provide organizations with its promised benefits unless it is shared, as organizations are increasingly experiencing unsuccessful knowledge sharing efforts. In such a backdrop and due to the dearth of research in this area in the South Asian context, the study set forth to develop an understanding of the factors that influence knowledge-sharing behavior within an organizational framework, using widely accepted social psychology theories. The purpose of the article is to discover the determinants of knowledge-sharing intention and actual knowledge sharing behaviors of bank employees in Sri Lanka using an aggregate model. Knowledge sharing intentions are widely discussed in literature through the application of Ajzen’s Theory of planned behavior (TPB) and Theory of Social Capital (SCT) separately. Both the theories are rich to explain knowledge sharing intention of workers with limitations. The study, therefore, combines the TPB with SCT in developing its conceptual model. Data were collected through a self-administrated paper-based questionnaire of 199 bank managers from 6 public and private banks of Sri Lanka and analyzed the suggested research model using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The study supported six of the nine hypotheses, where Attitudes toward Knowledge Sharing Behavior, Perceived Behavioral Control, Trust, Anticipated Reciprocal Relationships and Actual Knowledge Sharing Behavior were supported while Organizational Climate, Sense of Self-Worth and Anticipated Extrinsic Rewards were not, in determining knowledge sharing intentions. Furthermore, the study investigated the effect of demographic factors of bankers (age, gender, position, education, and experiences) to the actual knowledge sharing behavior. However, findings should be confirmed using a larger sample, as well as through cross-sectional studies. The results highlight the need for theoreticians to combined TPB and SCT in understanding knowledge workers’ intentions and actual behavior; and for practitioners to focus on the perceptions and needs of the individual knowledge worker and the need to cultivate a culture of sharing knowledge in the organization for their mutual benefit.

Keywords: banks, employees behavior, knowledge management, knowledge sharing

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Authors: Hisham Mortada

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Transition in the urban configuration of Arab cities has never been as radical and visible as it has been since the turn of the last century. The emergence of new cities near historical settlements of Arabia has spawned a series of developments in and around the old city precincts. New developments are based on advanced technology and conform to globally prevalent standards of city planning, superseding the vernacular arrangements based on traditional norms that guided so-called ‘city planning’. Evidence to this fact are the extant Arab buildings present at the urban core of modern cities, which inform us about intricate spatial organization. Organization that subscribed to multiple norms such as, satisfying gender segregation and socialization, economic sustainability, and ensuring security and environmental coherence etc., within settlement compounds. Several participating factors achieved harmony in such an inclusive city—an organization that was challenged and apparently replaced by the new planning order in the face of growing needs of globalized, economy-centric and high-tech models of development. Communities found it difficult to acclimatize with the new western planning models that were implemented at a very large scale throughout the Kingdom, which later experienced spatial re-structuring to suit users’ needs. A closer look the ancient city of Yanbu, now flanked with such new developments, allows us to differentiate and track the beginnings of this unprecedented transition in settlement formations. This paper aims to elaborate the Arabian context offered to both the ‘traditional’ and ‘modern’ planning approaches, in order to understand challenges and solutions offered by both at different times. In the process it will also establish the inconsistencies and conflicts that arose with the shift in planning paradigm, from traditional-'cultural norms’, to modern-'physical planning', in the Arabian context. Thus, by distinguishing the two divergent planning philosophies, their impact of the Arabian morphology, relevance to lifestyle and suitability to the biophysical environment, it concludes with a perspective on sustainability particularly for in case of Yanbu.

Keywords: Yanbu, traditional architecture, Hijaz, coral building, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: P. Geetha, R. S. D. Wahida Banu

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The crowning advances in Silicon based electronic technology have dominated the computation world for the past decades. The captivating performance of Si devices lies in sustainable scaling down of the physical dimensions, by that increasing device density and improved performance. But, the fundamental limitations due to physical, technological, economical, and manufacture features restrict further miniaturization of Si based devices. The pit falls are due to scaling down of the devices such as process variation, short channel effects, high leakage currents, and reliability concerns. To fix the above-said problems, it is needed either to follow a new concept that will manage the current hitches or to support the available concept with different materials. The new concept is to design spintronics, quantum computation or two terminal molecular devices. Otherwise, presently used well known three terminal devices can be modified with different materials that suits to address the scaling down difficulties. The first approach will occupy in the far future since it needs considerable effort; the second path is a bright light towards the travel. Modelling paves way to know not only the current-voltage characteristics but also the performance of new devices. So, it is desirable to model a new device of suitable gate control and project the its abilities towards capability of handling high current, high power, high frequency, short delay, and high velocity with excellent electronic and optical properties. Carbon nanotube became a thriving material to replace silicon in nano devices. A well-planned optimized utilization of the carbon material leads to many more advantages. The unique nature of this organic material allows the recent developments in almost all fields of applications from an automobile industry to medical science, especially in electronics field-on which the automation industry depends. More research works were being done in this area. This paper reviews the carbon nanotube field effect transistor with various gate configurations, number of channel element, CNT wall configurations and different modelling techniques.

Keywords: array of channels, carbon nanotube field effect transistor, double gate transistor, gate wrap around transistor, modelling, multi-walled CNT, single-walled CNT

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Authors: Themistoklis Tzimas

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The proposed paper focuses on a triangular relationship, between human security, human development and responsibility to rebuild. This relationship constitutes the innovative contribution to the debate about human security. Human security constitutes a generic and legally binding notion, which orientates from an integrated approach the UN Charter principles and of the collective security system. Such an approach brings at the forefront of international law and of international relations not only states but non- state actors as well. Several doctrines attempt to implement the fore-mentioned approach among which the Responsibility to Protect- hereinafter R2P- doctrine and its aspect of Responsibility to Rebuild- hereinafter R2R. In this sense, R2P in general and R2R are supposed to be guided by human security imperatives. Human security because of its human- centered approach encompasses as an integral part of it, human development. Human development constitutes part of the backbone of human security, since it deals with the social and economic root- causes of the threats, which human security attempts to confront. In this sense, doctrines which orientate from human security, such as R2P and its R2R aspect should also take into account human development imperatives, in order to improve their efficiency. On the contrary though, R2R is more often linked with market- orientated policies, which are often imposed under transitional authorities, regardless of local needs. The implementation of such policies can be identified as a cause for striking failures in the framework of R2R. In addition it is a misinterpretation of the essence of human security and subsequently of R2P as well. The findings of the article, on the basis of the fore-mentioned argument is that a change must take place from a market- orientated misinterpretation of R2R to an approach attempting to implement human development doctrines, since the latter lie at the heart of human security and can be proven more effective in dealing with the root- causes of conflicts. Methodologically, the article begins with an examination of human security and of its binding nature on the basis of its orientation from the UN Charter. It also examines its significance in the framework of the collective security system. Then, follows the analysis of why and how human development constitutes an integral part of human security. At the next part it is proven that R2P in general and R2R more specifically constitute or should constitute an attempt to implement human security doctrines within the collective security system. Having built this triangular relationship it is argued that human development is proven to be the most suitable notion, so that the spirit of human security and the scopes of R2P are successfully implemented.

Keywords: human security, un charter, responsibility to protect, responsibility to rebuild, human development

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Authors: Catia S. A. Sima, K. Bousson

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Congestion in the Terminal Maneuvering Areas (TMAs) of larger airports impacts all aspects of air traffic flow, not only at national level but may also induce arrival delays at international level. Hence, there is a need to monitor appropriately the air traffic flow in TMAs so that efficient decisions may be taken to manage their occupancy rates. It would be desirable to physically increase the existing airspace to accommodate all existing demands, but this question is entirely utopian and, given this possibility, several studies and analyses have been developed over the past decades to meet the challenges that have arisen due to the dizzying expansion of the aeronautical industry. The main objective of the present paper is to propose concepts to manage and reduce the degree of uncertainty in the air traffic operations, maximizing the interest of all involved, ensuring a balance between demand and supply, and developing and/or adapting resources that enable a rapid and effective adaptation of measures to the current context and the consequent changes perceived in the aeronautical industry. A central task is to emphasize the increase in air traffic flow management capacity to the present day, taking into account not only a wide range of methodologies but also equipment and/or tools already available in the aeronautical industry. The efficient use of these resources is crucial as the human capacity for work is limited and the actors involved in all processes related to air traffic flow management are increasingly overloaded and, as a result, operational safety could be compromised. The methodology used to answer and/or develop the issues listed above is based on the advantages promoted by the application of Markov Chain principles that enable the construction of a simplified model of a dynamic network that describes the air traffic flow behavior anticipating their changes and eventual measures that could better address the impact of increased demand. Through this model, the proposed concepts are shown to have potentials to optimize the air traffic flow management combined with the operation of the existing resources at each moment and the circumstances found in each TMA, using historical data from the air traffic operations and specificities found in the aeronautical industry, namely in the Portuguese context.

Keywords: air traffic flow, terminal maneuvering area, TMA, air traffic management, ATM, Markov chains

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Authors: Madifedile Thasi, Azola Mayeza

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In South Africa, provision of housing to the growing population has been described as one of the greatest challenges facing the government. Between 1994 to 2015, more than 2.5 million housing units were provided by the government for the poorest households and the low-income earners under the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP). Yet, the latest census figure revealed that about 2.1 million households still live in shacks and informal dwellings. Human settlements patterns remain dysfunctional across in South Africa because of rapid urbanisation. The housing backlog is growing at a rate of 178 000 units a year. The aforementioned predicament calls the need for innovative approaches to address the issue in a sustainable way and this need not be overemphasized. Aside from the issue of cost, the delivery of more housing units comes with environmental and sustainability issues. The prefabrication building technology has resulted into accelerated housing delivery to a satisfactory level in some countries such as Nigeria and Malaysia that are facing similar issue. It is therefore expected to be a foremost option to address the social housing backlog in South Africa and within the country housing sustainability agenda. This paper appraises the factors responsible for the limited implementation of prefabrication technology in South African housing projects. The objective is to recommend the method and materials that can be best sustained in the country in terms of local availability, cost effectiveness and environmental friendliness. It presents empirical data to support the hypothesis that a wider implementation of prefabrication technology in the social housing projects will be of significant benefit, by providing fast turnaround, cost-effective and sustainable solution that will dent the housing backlog, as well as improving the quality of the social housings. It was found that only 17 000 units of the RDP housings provided were constructed using alternative building technologies. Furthermore, there are variety of prefabricated technologies in the market but mostly have limited production capacity, minimal manufacturing capacity and most materials are imported, which leads to unavailability of the technology for large scale delivery and utilization despite its obvious advantages.

Keywords: prefabrication technology, sustainable social housings, South Africa, housing delivery

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Authors: Mohammed Zahid Akter

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In the studies of language change, mental factors including analogy, reanalysis, and frequency have received considerable attention as possible catalysts for language change. In comparison, relatively little is known regarding which functional domains or construction types are more amenable to these mental factors than others. In this regard, this paper will show with data from South Central (Kuki-Chin) Tibeto-Burman languages how language change interacts with certain functional domains or construction types. These construction types include transitivity, person marking, and polarity distinctions. Thus, it will be shown that transitive clauses are more prone to change than intransitive and ditransitive clauses, clauses with 1st person argument marking are more prone to change than clauses with 2nd and 3rd person argument marking, non-copular clauses are more prone to change than copular clauses, affirmative clauses are more prone to change than negative clauses, and standard negatives are more prone to change than negative imperatives. The following schematic structure can summarize these findings: transitive>intransitive, ditransitive; 1st person>2nd person, 3rd person; non-copular>copular; and affirmative>negative; and standard negative>negative imperatives. In the interest of space, here only one of these findings is illustrated: affirmative>negative. In Hyow (South Central, Bangladesh), the innovative and preverbal 1st person subject k(V)- occurs in an affirmative construction, and the archaic and postverbal 1st person subject -ŋ occurs in a negative construction. Similarly, in Purum (South Central, Northeast India), the innovative and preverbal 1st person subject k(V)- occurs in an affirmative construction, and the archaic and postverbal 1st person subject *-ŋ occurs in a negative construction. Like 1st person subject, we also see that in Anal (South Central, Northeast India), the innovative and preverbal 2nd person subject V- occurs in an affirmative construction, and the archaic and postverbal 2nd person subject -t(V) in a negative construction. To conclude, data from South Central Tibeto-Burman languages suggest that language change interacts with functional domains as some construction types are more susceptible to change than others.

Keywords: functional domains, Kuki-Chin, language change, south-central, Tibeto-Burman

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Authors: Jiayun Shen, Lorenz Wyss, Thierry Golliard, Matthias Finger

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Innovation is widely recognized as the key for private enterprises to win the market competition. The state-owned-enterprises need to be innovative to compete in the market after the privatization as well. However, it is a lack of research to study how state-owned-enterprises manage innovation to create new products and services. Swiss Post, a Swiss state-owned-enterprises, has established a department to transform the corporate culture and foster innovation to achieve digital transformation. This paper describes the innovation management process at the Swiss Post and analyzes the impacts of the instruments, the organizational structure, and explores the barriers of innovation. This study used qualitative methods based on a review of the literature on innovation management and semi-structured interviews. Being established for over five years, the Swiss Post’s innovation management department has established a software-assisted modularized platform with systematic instruments to help the internal employees with the different innovation processes. It guides the innovators from idea creation to piloting in markets and supports with a separate financing source, with knowledge inputs and coaching, as well as with connections to external partners through the open innovation and venturing team. The platform also adapts to different business units within the corporate with a customized tailor for the various operational business units. The separate financing instruments enabled the creation and further development of new ideas; the coaching services contribute greatly to the transformation of teams’ innovation culture by providing new knowledge, thinking methods, and use cases for inspiration. It also facilitates organizational learning to help the whole corporate with the digital transformation. However, it is also confronted with a big challenge in twofold. Internally, the disruptive projects often hardly overcome the obstacles of long-established operational processes in the traditional business units; externally, the expectations of the public and restrictions from the federal government have become high hurdles for the company to stay and compete in the innovation track.

Keywords: empirical case study, innovation management, state-owned-enterprise, Swiss Post

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Authors: Sabina-Adriana Floria, Marius Gavrilescu, Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu, Costel Anton

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Neuroevolution is a subfield of artificial intelligence used to solve various problems in different application areas. Specifically, neuroevolution is a technique that applies biologically inspired methods to generate neural network architectures and optimize their parameters automatically. In this paper, we use different biologically inspired optimization algorithms in an ensemble strategy with the aim of training multilayer perceptron neural networks, resulting in regression models used to simulate the industrial chemical process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials. Installations in the raw ceramics industry, i.e., bricks, are characterized by significant energy consumption and large quantities of emissions. In addition, the initial conditions that were taken into account during the design and commissioning of the installation can change over time, which leads to the need to add new mixes to adjust the operating conditions for the desired purpose, e.g., material properties and energy saving. The present approach follows the study by simulation of a process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials, i.e., the modeling and optimization of the process. Optimization aims to determine the working conditions that minimize the emissions represented by nitrogen monoxide. We first use a search procedure to find the best values for the parameters of various biologically inspired optimization algorithms. Then, we propose an adaptive ensemble strategy that uses only a subset of the best algorithms identified in the search stage. The adaptive ensemble strategy combines the results of selected algorithms and automatically assigns more processing capacity to the more efficient algorithms. Their efficiency may also vary at different stages of the optimization process. In a given ensemble iteration, the most efficient algorithms aim to maintain good convergence, while the less efficient algorithms can improve population diversity. The proposed adaptive ensemble strategy outperforms the individual optimizers and the non-adaptive ensemble strategy in convergence speed, and the obtained results provide lower error values.

Keywords: optimization, biologically inspired algorithm, neuroevolution, ensembles, bricks, emission minimization

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Authors: E. Happ, A. Albert Tóth

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The aim of the research is to investigate the forms of the demands of leisure tourism in a West-Hungarian industrial city, Győr. Today, Győr is still a traditional industrial city, its industry is mainly based on vehicle industry, but the role of tourism is increasing in the life of the city as well. Because of the industrial nature and the strong economy of the city, the ratio of business tourists is high. It can be stated that MICE tourism is dominating in Győr. Developments of the last decade can help the city with new tourism products to increase the leisure tourism. The new types of tourism – besides business tourism – can help the providers to increase the occupancy rates and the demand at the weekends. The research demonstrates the theoretical background of the topic, and it shows the present situation of the tourism in Győr with secondary data. The secondary research contains statistical data from the Hungarian Statistical Office and the city council, and it is based on the providers’ data. The next part of the paper shows the potential types of leisure tourism with the help of primary research. The primary research contains the results of an online questionnaire with a sample of 1000 potential customers. It is completed with 10 in-depth interviews with tourism experts, who explained their opinions about the opportunities of leisure tourism in Győr from the providers’ side. The online questionnaire was filled out in spring 2017 by customers, who have already stayed in Győr or plan to visit the city. At the same time in-depth interviews were made with hotel managers, head of touristic institutions and employees at the council. Based on the research it can be stated that the touristic supply of Győr allows the increase of the leisure tourism ratio in the city. Primarily, the cultural and health tourism show potential development, but the supply side of touristic services can be developed in order to increase the number of guest nights. The tourism marketing needs to be strengthened in the city, and a distinctive marketing activity - from other cities - is needed as well. To conclude, although Győr is an industrial city, it has a transforming industrial part, and tourism is also strongly present in its economy. Besides the leading role of business tourism, different types of leisure tourism have the opportunity to take place in the city.

Keywords: business tourism, Győr, industrial city, leisure tourism, touristic demand

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Authors: Pradyumna R., Sridhar S., A. Satyanarayana, Alok S. Chauhan, Baig M. A. H.

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Modern turbine engines for aerospace applications need precision investment cast components such as integrally cast rotors and stators, for their hot end turbine stages. Traditionally, these turbines are used as starter engines. In recent times, such engines are also used for strategic missile applications. The rotor/stator castings consist of a central hub (shrouded in some designs) over which a number of aerofoil shaped blades are located. Since these components cannot be machined, investment casting is the only available route for manufacture and hence stringent dimensional aerospace quality has to be in-built in the casting process itself. In the process of investment casting, pattern generation by injection of wax into dedicated dies/moulds is the first critical step. Traditional approach deals in producing individual blades with hub/shroud features through wax injection and assembly of a set of such injected patterns onto a dedicated and precisely manufactured fixture to wax-weld and generate an integral wax pattern, a process known as the ‘segmental approach’. It is possible to design a single-injection die with retractable metallic inserts in the case of untwisted blades of stator patterns without the shroud. Such an approach is also possible for twisted blades of rotors with highly complex design of inter-blade inserts and retraction mechanisms. DMRL has for long established methods and procedures for the above to successfully supply precision castings for various defence related projects. In recent times, urea based soluble insert approach has also been successfully applied to overcome the need to design and manufacture a precision assembly fixture, leading to substantial reduction in component development times. Present paper deals in length various approaches tried and established at DMRL to generate precision wax patterns for aerospace quality turbine rotors and stators. In addition to this, the importance of simulation in solving issues related to wax injection is also touched upon.

Keywords: die/mold and fixtures, integral rotor/stator, investment casting, wax patterns, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Chuyi Ye, Minsang Kim, Cheol-Hee Moon

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The organic light emitting diode(OLED), is a potential organic optical functional materials which is considered as the next generation display technology with the advantages such as all-solid state, ultra-thin thickness, active luminous and flexibility. Due to the development of polymer-inorganic substrate, it becomes possible to achieve the flexible OLED display. However the organic light-emitting material is very sensitive to the oxygen and water vapor, and the encapsulation requires water vapor transmission rate(WVTR) and oxygen transmission rate(OTR) as lower as 10-6 g/(m2.d) and 10-5 cm3/(m2.d) respectively. In current situation, the rigorous WVTR and OTR have restricted the application of the OLED display. Traditional epoxy/getter or glass frit approaches, which have been widely applied on glass-substrate-based devices, are not suitable for transparent flexible organic devices, and mechanically flexible thin-film approaches are required. To ensure the OLED’s lifetime, the encapsulation material of the OLED package is very important. In this paper, a low melting point alloy(LMPA)-epoxy mixture in the encapsulation process is introduced. There will be a phase separation when the mixture is heated to the melting of LMPA and the formation of the double line structure between two substrates: the alloy barrier has extremely low WVTR and OTR and the epoxy fills the potential tiny cracks. In our experiment, the PI film is chosen as a flexible transparent substrate, and Mo and Cu are deposited on the PI film successively. Then the two metal layers are photolithographied to the sealing pattern line. The Mo is a transition layer between the PI film and Cu, at the same time, the Cu has a good wettability with the LMPA(Sn-58Bi). At last, pattern is printed with LMPA layer and applied voltage, the gathering Joule heat melt the LMPA and form the double line structure and the OLED package is sealed in the same time. In this research, the double-line encapsulating structure of LMPA and epoxy on the PI film is manufactured for the flexible OLED encapsulation, and in this process it is investigated whether the encapsulation satisfies the requirement of WVTR and OTR for the flexible OLED.

Keywords: encapsulation, flexible, low melting point alloy, OLED

Procedia PDF Downloads 583

Authors: Periklis Brakatsoulas

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Recent empirical research shows a growing interest in investment decision-making under market anomalies that contradict the rational paradigm. Momentum is undoubtedly one of the most robust anomalies in the empirical asset pricing research and remains surprisingly lucrative ever since first documented. Although predominantly phenomena identified across equities, momentum premia are now evident across various asset classes. Yet few many attempts are made so far to provide traders a diversified portfolio of strategies across different assets and markets. Moreover, literature focuses on patterns from past returns rather than mechanisms to signal future price directions prior to momentum runs. The aim of this paper is to develop a diversified portfolio approach to price distortion signals using daily position data on stocks, credit derivatives, and bonds. An algorithm allocates assets periodically, and new investment tactics take over upon price momentum signals and across different ranking groups. We focus on momentum life cycles, trend reversals, and price acceleration signals. The main effort here concentrates on the density, time span and maturity of momentum phenomena to identify consistent patterns over time and measure the predictive power of buy-sell signals generated by these anomalies. To tackle this, we propose a two-stage modelling process. First, we generate forecasts on core macroeconomic drivers. Secondly, satellite models generate market risk forecasts using the core driver projections generated at the first stage as input. Moreover, using a combination of the ARFIMA and FIGARCH models, we examine the dependence of consecutive observations across time and portfolio assets since long memory behavior in volatilities of one market appears to trigger persistent volatility patterns across other markets. We believe that this is the first work that employs evidence of volatility transmissions among derivatives, equities, and bonds to identify momentum life cycle patterns.

Keywords: forecasting, long memory, momentum, returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

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The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: angle of internal friction, cone penetrating test, general regression neural network, soil modulus of elasticity

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Authors: Jiri Beranovsky, Jaroslav Knapek, Tomas Kralik, Kamila Vavrova

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The paper deals with the results of research focused on the complex aspects of the use of intentionally grown biomass on agricultural land for the production of solid biofuels as an alternative for individual household heating. . The study primarily deals with the analysis of CO2 emissions of the logistics cycle of biomass for the production of energy pellets. Growing, harvesting, transport and storage are evaluated in the pellet production cycle. The aim is also to take into account the consumption profile during the year in terms of heating of common family houses, which are typical end-market segment for these fuels. It is assumed that in family houses, bio-pellets are able to substitute typical fossil fuels, such as brown coal and old wood burning heating devices and also electric boilers. One of the competing technology with the pellets are heat pumps. The results show the CO2 emissions related with considered fuels and technologies for their utilization. Comparative analysis is aimed biopellets from intentionally grown biomass, brown coal, natural gas and electricity used in electric boilers and heat pumps. Analysis combines CO2 emissions related with individual fuels utilization with costs of these fuels utilization. Cost of biopellets from intentionally grown biomass is derived from the economic models of individual energy crop plantations. At the same time, the restrictions imposed by EU legislation on Ecodesign's fuel and combustion equipment requirements and NOx emissions are discussed. Preliminary results of analyzes show that to achieve the competitiveness of pellets produced from specifically grown biomass, it would be necessary to either significantly ecological tax on coal (from about 0.3 to 3-3.5 EUR/GJ), or to multiply the agricultural subsidy per area. In addition to the Czech Republic, the results are also relevant for other countries, such as Bulgaria and Poland, which also have a high proportion of solid fuels for household heating.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, heating costs, energy crop, pellets, brown coal, heat pumps, economical evaluation

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Authors: A. Y. Purnama, N. Yasufuku

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The bridge structure is a building that has to be maintained, especially for the elastomeric bearing. The girder of the bridge needs to be lifted upward to maintain this elastomeric bearing, that needs high cost. Nowadays, integral abutment bridges are becoming popular. The integral abutment bridge is less costly because the elastomeric bearings are eliminated, which reduces the construction cost and maintenance costs. However, when this elastomeric bearing removed, the girder movement due to environmental thermal forces directly support by pile foundation, and it needs to be considered in the design. In case of pile foundation in a stiff soil, in the top area of the pile cannot move freely due to the fixed condition by soil stiffness. Pre-bored pile system can be used to increase the flexibility of pile foundation using a pre-bored hole that filled with elastic materials, but the behavior of soil-pile interaction and soil response due to this system is still rarely explained. In this paper, an experimental study using small-scale laboratory model test conducted in a half size model. Single flexible pile model embedded in sandy soil with the pre-bored ring, which filled with the filler material. The testing box made from an acrylic glass panel as observation area of the pile shaft to monitor the displacement of the pile during the lateral loading. The failure behavior of the soil inside the pre-bored ring and around the pile shaft was investigated to determine the point of pile rotation and the movement of this point due to the pre-bored ring system along the pile shaft. Digital images were used to capture the deformations of the soil and pile foundation during the loading from the acrylic glass on the side of the testing box. The results were presented in the form of lateral load resistance charts against the pile shaft displacement. The failure pattern result also established due to the cyclic lateral loading. The movement of the rotational point was measured due to the pre-bored system filled with appropriate filler material. Based on the findings, design considerations for pre-bored pile system due to cyclic lateral loading can be introduced.

Keywords: failure behavior, pre-bored pile system, cyclic lateral loading, sandy soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Surajo Ladan

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There is no doubt nowadays, the media plays a crucial role in the development of languages. Media practitioners influence and set our linguistic norms to a greater extent. Their strategic position makes them influential than school teachers as linguistic pacesetters and models. This is so because of the direct access to the general public that media enjoys being public, oriented and at the same time being patronized by the public, the media is regarded as an authority as far as language use is concerned. In the modern world, listening to the news has become part and parcel of our daily lives. Easy communication has made the world a global village. Contact between countries and people are increasing daily. In Nigeria and indeed the whole of West Africa, radio is the most widely spread out of the three types of media (radio, television, and print). This is because of its (radio) cheapness and less cumbersome and flexibility. Therefore, the positive or negative effect of radio on the lives of a typical Nigerian or African cannot be over emphasized. Hausa language, on the other hand, is one of the most widely spoken languages in West Africa and, of course, the lingua franca in the Northern part of Nigeria and Southern Niger. The language has been in use to a large extent by almost all the popular foreign media houses of BBC, VOA, Deutsche Welle Radio, Radio France International, Radio China, etc. The many people in Nigeria and West Africa depend so much on the news in this language. In fact even government programmes, mobilization, education and sensitization of the populace are done in this language through the broadcast media. It is against this background, for effective and efficient work of this nature it requires the services of a trained translator for the purpose of translating scientific and technological terms. The main thrust of this paper was necessitated for the fact that no nation develops using foreign or borrowed language. This is in lined with UNESCO declaration of 1953 where it says 'the best Language of Instruction (LOI) is the vernacular or the Mother Tongue (MT) of the learner'. This idea is in the right direction especially nowadays that the developing nations have come to terms with realities that their destiny is really in their own hands, not in the hands of the so-called developed nations.

Keywords: translation, scientific, technological, language, radio, media

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Ola Jon Mork, Lars Andre Giske, Emil Bjørlykhaug

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Stabilization of critical processes in order to have the right quality of the products, more efficient production and smoother flow is a key issue in lean production. This paper presents how simulation of key welding processes can stabilize complicated welding processes in small scale production, and how simulation can impact the entire production concept seen from the perspective of lean production. First, a field study was made to learn the production processes in the factory, and subsequently the field study was transformed into a value stream map to get insight into each operation, the quality issues, operation times, lead times and flow of materials. Valuable practical knowledge of how the welding operations were done by operators, appropriate tools and jigs, and type of robots that could be used, was collected. All available information was then implemented into a simulation environment for further elaboration and development. Three researchers, the management of the company and skilled operators at the work floor where working on the project over a period of eight months, and a detailed description of the process was made by the researchers. The simulation showed that simulation could solve a number of technical challenges, the robot program can be tuned in off line mode, and the design and testing of the robot cell could be made in the simulator. Further on the design of the product could be optimized for robot welding and the jigs could be designed and tested in simulation environment. This means that a key issue of lean production can be solved; the welding operation will work with almost 100% performance when it is put into real production. Stabilizing of one key process is critical to gain control of the entire value chain, then a Takt Time can be established and the focus can be directed towards the next process in the production which should be stabilized. Results show that industrial parameters like welding time, welding cost and welding quality can be defined on the simulation stage. Further on, this gives valuable information for calculation of the factories business performance, like manufacturing volume and manufacturing efficiency. Industrial impact from simulation is more efficient implementation of lean manufacturing, since the welding process can be stabilized. More research should be done to gain more knowledge about simulation as a tool for implementation of lean, especially where there complex processes.

Keywords: simulation, lean, stabilization, welding process

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Timine Suoware, Sylvester Edelugo, Charles Amgbari

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The susceptibility of natural fibre polymer composites to flame has necessitated research to improve and develop flame retardant (FR) to delay the escape of combustible volatiles. Previous approaches relied mostly on FR such as aluminium tri-hydroxide (ATH) and ammonium polyphosphate (APP) to improve fire performances of wood sawdust polymer composites (WSPC) with emphasis on non-structural building applications. In this paper, APP was modified with gum Arabic powder (GAP) and then hybridized with ATH at 0, 12 and 18% loading ratio to form new FR species; WSPC12%APP-GAP and WSPC18%ATH/APP-GAP. The FR species were incorporated in wood sawdust waste reinforced in polyester resin to form panels for fireproof doors. The panels were produced using hand lay compression moulding technique and cured at room temperature. Specimen cut from panels were then tested for tensile strength (TS), flexural strength (FS) and impact strength (IS) using universal testing machine and impact tester; thermal stability using (TGA/DSC 1: Metler Toledo); time-to-ignition (Tig), heat release rates (HRR); peak HRR (HRRp), average HRR (HRRavg), total HRR (THR), peak mass loss rate (MLRp), average smoke production rate (SPRavg) and carbon monoxide production (COP ) were obtained using the cone calorimeter apparatus. From the mechanical properties obtained, improvements of IS for the panels were not noticeable whereas TS and FS for WSPC12%APP-GAP respectively stood at 12.44 MPa and 85.58 MPa more than those without FR (WSPC0%). For WSC18%ATH/APP-GAP TS and FS respectively stood at 16.45 MPa and 50.49 MPa more compared to (WSPC0%). From the thermal analysis, the panels did not exhibit any significant change as early degradation was observed. At 900 OC, the char residues improved by 15% for WSPC12%APP-GAP and 19% for WSPC18%ATH/APP-GAP more than (WSC0%) at 5%, confirming the APP-GAP to be a good FR. At 50 kW/m2 heat flux (HF), WSPC12%APP-GAP improved better the fire behaviour of the panels when compared to WSC0% as follows; Tig = 46 s, HRRp = 56.1 kW/2, HRRavg = 32.8 kW/m2, THR = 66.6 MJ/m2, MLRp = 0.103 g/s, TSR = 0.04 m2/s and COP = 0.051 kg/kg. These were respectively more than WSC0%. It can be concluded that the new concept of modifying FR with GAP in WSC could meet the requirement of a fireproof door for building applications.

Keywords: composite, flame retardant, wood sawdust, fireproof doors

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Goodness Thandi Ntuli

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As one of the sub-Saharan African countries, South Africa has a majority of women living at the receiving end of all ferocious atrocities, afflictions and social ills such as utter poverty, unemployment, morbidity, sexual exploitation and abuse, gender-based and domestic violence. The response to these social ills that permeate the South African context like wildfire requires postcolonial feminism as a lens which needs to directly address this particular context. In the empirical study that was conducted among the Zulu people about Zulu young women in the South African context, it was found that a postcolonial young woman has a lot of social challenges that militate against her. In her struggle to liberate herself, there are layers of oppression that she has to deal with before attaining emancipation of any kind. These layers of oppression emanate from postcolonial effects on cultural norms that come with patriarchal issues, racial issues as the woman of colour and socio-economic issues as the poverty-stricken marginalised woman. Such layers also render marginalized women voiceless on many occasions, and hence the kind of feminism that needs to be applied in this context has to give them a voice, worth and human dignity that they deserve. From the postcolonial feminist perspective, this paper examines the condition of women from the margins and seeks the ways in which the layers of oppression could be disengaged. In the process of the severed layers of oppression, these women can be uplifted to becoming the women of worth, restored to life-giving dignity from the inferiority complex of racial discrimination and liberation from all forms of patriarchy and its upshots that keep them bound by gender inequality. This requires, in particular, postcolonial feminism that would find profound ways of reaching into the deep-seated socialization and internalization of every kind of prejudice against women. It is the kind of feminism that questions the status core even among those who consider themselves feminists. With the ruination of all postcolonial layers of oppression, women in the margins could find real emancipation that they have always longed for through feminism that will take into consideration their context. This calls for the rethinking of feminism in different contexts because the conditions of the oppressed woman of the South cannot be the same as the conditions of the woman who considers herself oppressed in the North.

Keywords: exploration, feminism, postcolonial, margins, South African, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 192