Search results for: targeted maximum likelihood estimation

Authors: E. Popov, N. Yorino, Y. Zoka, Y. Sasaki, H. Sugihara

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This paper discusses the performance of critical trajectory method (CTrj) for power system transient stability analysis under various loading settings and heavy fault condition. The method obtains Controlling Unstable Equilibrium Point (CUEP) which is essential for estimation of power system stability margins. The CUEP is computed by applying the CTrjto the boundary controlling unstable equilibrium point (BCU) method. The Proposed method computes a trajectory on the stability boundary that starts from the exit point and reaches CUEP under certain assumptions. The robustness and effectiveness of the method are demonstrated via six power system models and five loading conditions. As benchmark is used conventional simulation method whereas the performance is compared with and BCU Shadowing method.

Keywords: power system, transient stability, critical trajectory method, energy function method

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Sumira Jan, Javid Iqbal Mir, Desh Beer Singh, Anil Sharma, Shafia Zaffar Faktoo

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Background and Aims: Climatic and edaphic factors immensely influence crop quality and proper development. Regardless of economic potential, Himalayan Oregano has not subjected to phytonutrient and chemometric evaluation and its relationship with environmental conditions are scarce. The central objective of this research was to investigate microclimatic variation among wild and cultivated populations located in a microclimatic gradient in north-western Himalaya, Kashmir and analyse if such disparity was related with diverse climatic and edaphic conditions. Methods: Micrometeorological, Atomic absorption spectroscopy for micro elemental analysis was carried for soil. HPLC was carried out to estimate variation in phytonutrients and phytochemicals. Results: Geographic variation in phytonutrient was observed among cultivated and wild populations and among populations diverse within regions. Cultivated populations exhibited comparatively lesser phytonutrient value than wild populations. Moreover, our results observed higher vegetative growth of O. vulgare L. with higher pH (6-7), elevated organic carbon (2.42%), high nitrogen (97.41Kg/ha) and manganese (10-12ppm) and zinc contents (0.39-0.50) produce higher phytonutrients. HPLC data of phytonutrients like quercetin, betacarotene, ascorbic acid, arbutin and catechin revealed direct relationship with UV-B flux (r2=0.82), potassium (r2=0.97) displaying parallel relationship with phytonutrient value. Conclusions: Catechin was found as predominant phytonutrient among all populations with maximum accumulation of 163.8 ppm while as quercetin exhibited lesser value. Maximum arbutin (53.42ppm) and quercetin (2.87ppm) accumulated in plants thriving under intense and high UV-B flux. Minimum variation was demonstrated by beta carotene and ascorbic acid.

Keywords: phytonutrient, ascorbic acid, beta carotene, quercetin, catechin

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Yinsheng Zhang

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Changes in the extent and amount of snow cover in Eurasia are of great interest because of their vital impacts on the global climate system and regional water resource management. This study investigated the spatial and temporal variability of the snow cover extent (SCE) and snow water equivalent (SWE) of continental Eurasia using the Northern Hemisphere Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grid (EASE-Grid) Weekly SCE data for 1972–2006 and the Global Monthly EASE-Grid SWE data for 1979–2004. The results indicated that, in general, the spatial extent of snow cover significantly decreased during spring and summer, but varied little during autumn and winter over Eurasia in the study period. The date at which snow cover began to disappear in spring has significantly advanced, whereas the timing of snow cover onset in autumn did not vary significantly during 1972–2006. The snow cover persistence period declined significantly in the western Tibetan Plateau as well as the partial area of Central Asia and northwestern Russia but varied little in other parts of Eurasia. ‘Snow-free breaks’ (SFBs) with intermittent snow cover in the cold season were mainly observed in the Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia, causing a low sensitivity of snow cover persistence period to the timings of snow cover onset and disappearance over the areas with shallow snow. The averaged SFBs were 1–14 weeks in the Tibetan Plateau during 1972–2006 and the maximum intermittence could reach 25 weeks in some extreme years. At a seasonal scale, the SWE usually peaked in February or March but fell gradually since April across Eurasia. Both annual mean and annual maximum SWE decreased significantly during 1979–2004 in most parts of Eurasia except for eastern Siberia as well as northwestern and northeastern China.

Keywords: Eurasia, snow cover extent, snow cover persistence period, snow-free breaks, onset and disappearance timings, snow water equivalent

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: R. Sabre

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This work focuses on the symmetric alpha stable process with continuous time frequently used in modeling the signal with indefinitely growing variance, often observed with an unknown additive error. The objective of this paper is to estimate this error from discrete observations of the signal. For that, we propose a method based on the smoothing of the observations via Jackson polynomial kernel and taking into account the width of the interval where the spectral density is non-zero. This technique allows avoiding the “Aliasing phenomenon” encountered when the estimation is made from the discrete observations of a process with continuous time. We have studied the convergence rate of the estimator and have shown that the convergence rate improves in the case where the spectral density is zero at the origin. Thus, we set up an estimator of the additive error that can be subtracted for approaching the original signal without error.

Keywords: spectral density, stable processes, aliasing, non parametric

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Authors: Pirta Palola, Richard Bailey, Lisa Wedding

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Societies and economies worldwide fundamentally depend on natural capital. Alarmingly, natural capital assets are quickly depreciating, posing an existential challenge for humanity. The development of robust natural capital accounting systems is essential for transitioning towards sustainable economic systems and ensuring sound management of capital assets. However, the accurate, equitable and comprehensive estimation of natural capital asset stocks and their accounting values still faces multiple challenges. In particular, the representation of socio-cultural values held by groups or communities has arguably been limited, as to date, the valuation of natural capital assets has primarily been based on monetary valuation methods and assumptions of individual rationality. People relate to and value the natural environment in multiple ways, and no single valuation method can provide a sufficiently comprehensive image of the range of values associated with the environment. Indeed, calls have been made to improve the representation of multiple types of value (instrumental, intrinsic, and relational) and diverse ontological and epistemological perspectives in environmental valuation. This study addresses this need by establishing a novel valuation framework, Environmental Value Functions (EVF), that allows for the integration of multiple types of value in natural capital accounting systems. The EVF framework is based on the estimation and application of value functions, each of which describes the relationship between the value and quantity (or quality) of an ecosystem component of interest. In this framework, values are estimated in terms of change relative to the current level instead of calculating absolute values. Furthermore, EVF was developed to also support non-marginalist conceptualizations of value: it is likely that some environmental values cannot be conceptualized in terms of marginal changes. For example, ecological resilience value may, in some cases, be best understood as a binary: it either exists (1) or is lost (0). In such cases, a logistic value function may be used as the discriminator. Uncertainty in the value function parameterization can be considered through, for example, Monte Carlo sampling analysis. The use of EVF is illustrated with two conceptual examples. For the first time, EVF offers a clear framework and concrete methodology for the representation of multiple types of value in natural capital accounting systems, simultaneously enabling 1) the complementary use and integration of multiple valuation methods (monetary and non-monetary); 2) the synthesis of information from diverse knowledge systems; 3) the recognition of value incommensurability; 4) marginalist and non-marginalist value analysis. Furthermore, with this advancement, the coupling of EVF and ecosystem modeling can offer novel insights to the study of spatial-temporal dynamics in natural capital asset values. For example, value time series can be produced, allowing for the prediction and analysis of volatility, long-term trends, and temporal trade-offs. This approach can provide essential information to help guide the transition to a sustainable economy.

Keywords: economics of biodiversity, environmental valuation, natural capital, value function

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Authors: T. D. Tran, H. Schlegel, R. Neugebauer

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Ball screws are an important component in machine tools. In mechatronic systems and machine tools, a ball screw has to work usually at a high speed. Otherwise the axial compliance of the ball screw, in combination with the inertia of the slide, the motor, the coupling and the screw, will cause an oscillation resonance, which limits the systems bandwidth and consequently influences performance of the motion controller. In this paper, the modal analysis method by measuring and analysing the vibrating parameters of the ball screw system to determine the dynamic characteristic of existing structures is used. On the one hand, the results of this study were obtained by the theoretical analysis and the modal testing of a ball screw system test station with the help of an impact hammer, respectively using excitation by motor. The experimental study showed oscillating forms of the ball screw for each frequency and obtained eigenfrequencies of the ball screw system. On the other hand, in this research a simulation with the help of the numerical modal analysis in order to analyse the oscillation and to find the eigenfrequencies of the ball screw system is used. Furthermore, the model order reduction by modal reduction and also according to Guyan is carried out. On the basis of these results a secure and also rapid commissioning of the control loops with regard to operating in their optimal function is targeted.

Keywords: modal analysis, ball screw, controller system, machine tools

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Authors: Muhammad Saad Shoaib Khan, Rasbin Basnet, Qingyao Shu

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Phospholipids are one of the major classes of lipid comprising 10% of total grain lipid in rice. Phospholipids are the main phosphorus containing lipid in the rice endosperm, contributing to rice palatability and seed storage property. However, in the rice grain, the majority of phosphorus occur in the form of phytic acid and are highly abundant in the bran. Phytic acid, also known as hexaphosphorylated inositol (IP6), are strong chelating agents which reduces the bioavailability of essential dietary nutrients and are therefore less desirable by rice breeders. We used the CRISPR/Cas9 system to generate mutants of a phospholipase D gene (PLDα1), which is responsible for the degradation of phospholipids into phosphatidic acid (PA). In the mutants, we found a significant reduction in the concentration of phytic acid in the grain as compared to the wild-type. The biochemical analysis of the PLDα1 mutants showed that the decrease in production of phosphatidic acid is due to reduced accumulation of CDP-diacylglycerolderived phosphatidylinositol (PI), ultimately leading to lower accumulation of phytic acid in mutants. These results showed that loss of function of PLD in rice leads to lower production of phytic acid, suggesting the potential application of Ospldα1 in breeding rice with less phytic acid.

Keywords: CRISPR/Cas9, phospholipase D, phytic acid, rice

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Authors: Sathiya Susuman Appunni

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Background: This article reviews the self-reported pregnancies among teenage girls currently attending secondary school in South Africa. The study aim is to examine the demographic and socio-economic factors associated with self-reported pregnancies among teenage girls currently attending secondary school in the study area. Data and Methods: Secondary data drawn from the General Household Surveys 2016 and Community Survey 2016 as well as 10 % sample data from the 2011 South African census were used. Bivariate, and Multivariate analyses were carried in order to meet the aims of the study. Results: The independent variable identified was the number of economically active people in the household, which indicated 3.3% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2016 for the household with no economically active member. Among the provinces, Limpopo has been leading by 5.2% of self-reported pregnancies among the girls currently attending secondary school in South Africa. Conclusion: It is recommended that the needs to be special health policies and strategies in place to address this epidemic and such policies need to be targeted to the different needs of teenagers in the different demarcations of the country.

Keywords: pregnancy prevalence, demographic, household, teenage girls, socio-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Shri Dubey, Jamal Ghorieshi

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Instability of the lumbar spine is caused by various factors that include degenerative disc, herniated disc, traumatic injuries, and other disorders. Pedicle screws are widely used as a main fixation device to construct rigid linkages of vertebrae to provide a fully functional and stable spine. Various technologies and methods have been used to restore the stabilization. However, loosening of pedicle screws is the main cause of concerns for neurosurgeons. This could happen due to poor bone quality with osteoporosis as well as types of pedicle screw used. Compatibilities and stabilities of pedicle screws with bone depend on design (thread design, length, and diameter) and material. Grip length and pullout strength affect the motion and stability of the spine when it goes through different phases such as extension, flexion, and rotation. Pullout strength of augmented pedicle screws is increased in both primary and salvage procedures by 119% (p = 0.001) and 162% (p = 0.01), respectively. Self-centering pedicle screws at different trajectories (0°, 10°, 20°, and 30°) show the same pullout strength as insertion in a straight-ahead trajectory. The outer cylindrical and inner conical shape of pedicle screws show the highest pullout strength in Grades 5 and 15 foams (synthetic bone). An outer cylindrical and inner conical shape with a V-shape thread exhibit the highest pullout strength in all foam grades. The maximum observed pullout strength is at axial pullout configuration at 0°. For Grade 15 (240 kg/m³) foam, there is a decline in pull out strength. The largest decrease in pullout strength is reported for Grade 10 (160 kg/m³) foam. The maximum pullout strength of 2176 N (0.32-g/cm³ Sawbones) on all densities. Type 1 Pedicle screw shows the best fixation due to smaller conical core diameter and smaller thread pitch (Screw 2 with 2 mm; Screws 1 and 3 with 3 mm).

Keywords: polymethylmethacrylate, PMMA, classical pedicle screws, CPS, expandable poly-ether-ether-ketone shell, EPEEKS, includes translaminar facet screw, TLFS, poly-ether-ether-ketone, PEEK, transfacetopedicular screw, TFPS

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Authors: Andrey Kashcheev, Victor Sytnikov, Mikhail Dubinin, Elena Filipeva, Dmitriy Sorokin

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Various variants of technical solutions aimed at improving the reliability of power supply to consumers of 110 kV substation are considered. For each technical solution, the results of calculation and analysis of electrical modes and short-circuit currents in the electrical network are presented. The estimation of electric energy consumption for losses within the boundaries of substation reconstruction was carried out in accordance with the methodology for determining the standards of technological losses of electricity during its transmission through electric networks. The assessment of the technical and economic feasibility of the use of HTS CL compared with the complex reconstruction of the 110 kV substation was carried out. It is shown that the use of high-temperature superconducting AC cable lines is a possible alternative to traditional technical solutions used in the reconstruction of substations.

Keywords: superconductivity, cable lines, superconducting cable, AC cable, feasibility

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Authors: O. Anan, D. Böhning, A. Maruotti

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The purpose of the study is to estimate the elusive target population size under a truncated count model that accounts for heterogeneity. The purposed estimator is based on the generalized Poisson distribution (GPD), which extends the Poisson distribution by adding a dispersion parameter. Thus, it becomes an useful model for capture-recapture data where concurrent events are not homogeneous. In addition, it can account for over-dispersion and under-dispersion. The ratios of neighboring frequency counts are used as a tool for investigating the validity of whether generalized Poisson or Poisson distribution. Since capture-recapture approaches do not provide the zero counts, the estimated parameters can be achieved by modifying the EM-algorithm technique for the zero-truncated generalized Poisson distribution. The properties and the comparative performance of proposed estimator were investigated through simulation studies. Furthermore, some empirical examples are represented insights on the behavior of the estimators.

Keywords: capture, recapture methods, ratio plot, heterogeneous population, zero-truncated count

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Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming

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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.

Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study

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Authors: Arif Armagan Gozutok, Alper Kule, Burak Tos, Selman Demirel

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Wireless communication chain requires effective ways to keep throughput efficiency high while it suffers location-dependent, time-varying burst errors. Several techniques are developed in order to assure that the receiver recovers the transmitted information without errors. The most fundamental approaches are error checking and correction besides re-transmission of the non-acknowledged packets. In this paper, stop & wait (SAW) and chase combined (CC) hybrid automated repeat request (HARQ) protocols are compared and analyzed in terms of throughput and average delay for the usage of low earth orbit (LEO) mega-constellations case. Several assumptions and technological implementations are considered as well as usage of low-density parity check (LDPC) codes together with several constellation orbit configurations.

Keywords: HARQ, LEO, satellite constellation, throughput

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Authors: Arpita Roy, Navneeta Bharadvaja

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Cancer is an uncontrolled growth of abnormal cells in the body. It is one of the most serious diseases on which extensive research work has been going on all over the world. Structure-based drug designing is a computational approach which helps in the identification of potential leads that can be used for the development of a drug. Plumbagin is a naphthoquinone derivative from Plumbago zeylanica roots and belongs to one of the largest and diverse groups of plant metabolites. Anticancer and antiproliferative activities of plumbagin have been observed in animal models as well as in cell cultures. Plumbagin shows inhibitory effects on multiple cancer-signaling proteins; however, the binding mode and the molecular interactions have not yet been elucidated for most of these protein targets. In this investigation, an attempt to provide structural insights into the binding mode of plumbagin against four cancer receptors using molecular docking was performed. Plumbagin showed minimal energy against targeted cancer receptors, therefore suggested its stability and potential towards different cancers. The least binding energies of plumbagin with COX-2, TACE, and CDK6 are -5.39, -4.93, -and 4.81 kcal/mol, respectively. Comparison studies of plumbagin with different receptors showed that it is a promising compound for cancer treatment. It was also found that plumbagin obeys the Lipinski’s Rule of 5 and computed ADMET properties which showed drug likeliness and improved bioavailability. Since plumbagin is from a natural source, it has reduced side effects, and these results would be useful for cancer treatment.

Keywords: cancer, receptor, plumbagin, docking

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Authors: Levan Sabauri

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The purpose of this article is an examination of the meaning of theoretic aspects of audit in the context of solving of specific problems of the audit. The audit’s aim is the estimation of financial statements by the auditor, i.e. if they are prepared according to the basic requirements of current financial statements. By examination of concrete examples, we can clearly see problems created in an audit and in often cases, those contradictions which can be caused by incompliance of matters regulated by legislation and by reality. An important part of this work is the analysis of reform in the direction of business accounting, statements and audit in Georgia and its comparison with EU countries. In the article, attention is concentrated on the analysis of specific problems of auditing practice and ways of their solving by taking into consideration theoretical aspects of the audit are proposed.

Keywords: audit, auditor, auditors’ ethic code, auditor’s risk, financial statement, objectivity

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Authors: Zhong-Dan Tu, Wang-Xi Fan, Yi-Chen Huang, Jen-Taut Yeh

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Novel ultrahigh molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE)/cellulose nanofiber (CNF) (F100CNFy) and UHMWPE/modified cellulose nanofiber (MCNF) (F100MCNFxy) as-prepared nanocomposite fibers were prepared by spinning F100CNFy and F100MCNFxy gel solutions, respectively. Cellulose nanofibers were successfully prepared by proper acid treatment of cotton fibers using sulfuric acid solutions. The best prepared CNF is with specific surface areas around 120 m2/g and a nanofiber diameter of 20 nm. Modified cellulose nanofiber was prepared by grafting maleic anhydride grafted polyethylene (PE-g-MAH) onto cellulose nanofibers. The achievable draw ratio (Dra) values of each F100MCNFxy as-prepared fiber series specimens approached a maximal value as their MCNF contents reached the optimal value at 0.05 phr. In which, the maximum Dra value obtained for F100MCNFx0.05 as-prepared fiber specimen prepared at the optimal MCNF content reached another maximum value as the weight ratio of PE-g-MAH to CNF approach an optimal value at 6. Similar to those found for the achievable drawing properties of the as-prepared fibers, the orientation factor, tensile strength (σ f) and initial modulus (E) values of drawn F100MCNF6y fiber series specimens with a fixed draw ratio reach a maximal value as their MCNF contents approach the optimal value, wherein the σ f and E values of the drawn F100MCNFxy fiber specimens are significantly higher than those of the drawn F100 fiber specimens and corresponding drawn F100CNFy fiber specimens prepared at the same draw ratios and CNF contents but without modification. To understand the interesting ultradrawing, thermal, orientation and tensile properties of F100CNFy and F100MCNFxy fiber specimens, Fourier transform infra-red, specific surface areas, and transmission electron microcopic analyses of the original and modified CNF nanofillers were performed in this study.

Keywords: ultradrawing, cellulose nanofibers, ultrahigh molecular weight polyethylene, nanocomposite fibers

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Authors: Rahmoune Abdelhaq

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Systemic risk is a key concern for central banks charged with safeguarding overall financial stability. In this work, we investigate how systemic risk is affected by the structure of the financial system. We construct banking systems that are composed of a number of banks that are connected by interbank linkages. We then vary the key parameters that define the structure of the financial system — including its level of capitalization, the degree to which banks are connected, the size of interbank exposures and the degree of concentration of the system — and analyses the influence of these parameters on the likelihood of contagious (knock-on) defaults. First, we find that the better-capitalized banks are, the more resilient is the banking system against contagious defaults and this effect is non-linear. Second, the effect of the degree of connectivity is non-monotonic, that is, initially a small increase in connectivity increases the contagion effect; but after a certain threshold value, connectivity improves the ability of a banking system to absorb shocks. Third, the size of interbank liabilities tends to increase the risk of knock-on default, even if banks hold capital against such exposures. Fourth, more concentrated banking systems are shown to be prone to larger systemic risk, all else equal. In an extension to the main analysis, we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tier) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out. This paper also discusses why bank risk management is needed to get the optimal one.

Keywords: financial stability, contagion, liquidity risk, optimal risk

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Authors: Elena Vinogradova, Aleksei Pleshakov, Aleksei Yakovlev

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During the flight of a supersonic aircraft under various conditions (altitude, Mach, etc.), it becomes necessary to coordinate the operating modes of the air intake and engine. On the supersonic aircraft, it’s been done by changing various control factors (the angle of rotation of the wedge panels and etc.). This paper investigates the possibility of using modern optimization methods to determine the optimal position of the supersonic air intake wedge panels in order to maximize the total pressure recovery coefficient. Modern software allows us to conduct auto-optimization, which determines the optimal position of the control elements of the investigated product to achieve its maximum efficiency. In this work, the flow in the supersonic aircraft inlet has investigated and optimized the operation of the flaps of the supersonic inlet in an aircraft in a 2-D setting. This work has done using ANSYS CFX software. The supersonic aircraft inlet is a flat adjustable external compression inlet. The braking surface is made in the form of a three-stage wedge. The IOSO NM software package was chosen for optimization. Change in the position of the panels of the input device is carried out by changing the angle between the first and second steps of the three-stage wedge. The position of the rest of the panels is changed automatically. Within the framework of the presented work, the position of the moving air intake panel was optimized under fixed flight conditions of the aircraft under a certain engine operating mode. As a result of the numerical modeling, the distribution of total pressure losses was obtained for various cases of the engine operation, depending on the incoming flow velocity and the flight altitude of the aircraft. The results make it possible to obtain the maximum total pressure recovery coefficient under given conditions. Also, the initial geometry was set with a certain angle between the first and second wedge panels. Having performed all the calculations, as well as the subsequent optimization of the aircraft input device, it can be concluded that the initial angle was set sufficiently close to the optimal angle.

Keywords: optimal angle, optimization, supersonic air intake, total pressure recovery coefficient

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Authors: P.P. Rupasinghe, A.H. Farid

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The Aleutian mink disease virus (AMDV, Carnivore amdoparvovirus 1) causes persistent infection, plasmacytosis, and formation and deposition of immune complexes in various organs in adult mink, leading to glomerulonephritis, arteritis and sometimes death. The disease has no cure nor an effective vaccine, and identification and culling of mink positive for anti-AMDV antibodies have not been successful in controlling the infection in many countries. The failure to eradicate the virus from infected farms may be caused by keeping false-negative individuals on the farm, virus transmission from wild animals, or neighboring farms. The identification of sources of infection, which can be performed by comparing viral sequences, is important in the success of viral eradication programs. High mutation rates could cause inaccuracies when viral sequences are used to trace back an infection to its origin. There is no published information on the mutation rate of AMDV either in vivo or in vitro. The in vivo estimation is the most accurate method, but it is difficult to perform because of the inherent technical complexities, namely infecting live animals, the unknown numbers of viral generations (i.e., infection cycles), the removal of deleterious mutations over time and genetic drift. The objective of this study was to determine the mutation rate of AMDV on which no information was available. A homogenate was prepared from the spleen of one naturally infected American mink (Neovison vison) from Nova Scotia, Canada (parental template). The near full-length genome of this isolate (91.6%, 4,143 bp) was bidirectionally sequenced. A group of black mink was inoculated with this homogenate (descendant mink). Spleen sampled were collected from 10 descendant mink after 16 weeks post-inoculation (wpi) and from anther 10 mink after 176 wpi, and their near-full length genomes were bi-directionally sequenced. Sequences of these mink were compared with each other and with the sequence of the parental template. The number of nucleotide substitutions at 176 wpi was 3.1 times greater than that at 16 wpi (113 vs 36) whereas the estimates of mutation rate at 176 wpi was 3.1 times lower than that at 176 wpi (2.85×10-3 vs 9.13×10-4 substitutions/ site/ year), showing a decreasing trend in the mutation rate per unit of time. Although there is no report on in vivo estimate of the mutation rate of DNA viruses in animals using the same method which was used in the current study, these estimates are at the higher range of reported values for DNA viruses determined by various techniques. These high estimates are logical based on the wide range of diversity and pathogenicity of AMDV isolates. The results suggest that increases in the number of nucleotide substitutions over time and subsequent divergence make it difficult to accurately trace back AMDV isolates to their origin when several years elapsed between the two samplings.

Keywords: Aleutian mink disease virus, American mink, mutation rate, nucleotide substitution

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Authors: K. Roushanger, A. Soleymanzadeh

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Weirs are structures often used in irrigation techniques, sewer networks and flood protection. However, the hydraulic behavior of this type of weir is complex and difficult to predict accurately. An accurate flow prediction over a weir mainly depends on the proper estimation of discharge coefficient. In this study, the Genetic Expression Programming (GEP) approach was used for predicting trapezoidal and rectangular sharp-crested side weirs discharge coefficient. Three different performance indexes are used as comparing criteria for the evaluation of the model’s performances. The obtained results approved capability of GEP in prediction of trapezoidal and rectangular side weirs discharge coefficient. The results also revealed the influence of downstream Froude number for trapezoidal weir and upstream Froude number for rectangular weir in prediction of the discharge coefficient for both of side weirs.

Keywords: discharge coefficient, genetic expression programming, trapezoidal weir

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

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Authors: Jun-Ho Park, Kwang-Woo Nam, Seung-Mo Hong, Tae-Heon Moon, Sang-Ho Lee, Youn-Taik Leem

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The aim of this study was to build ‘Ubi-Net’, a decision-making support system for systematic establishment in U-City planning. We have experienced various urban problems caused by high-density development and population concentrations in established urban areas. To address these problems, a U-Service contributes to the alleviation of urban problems by providing real-time information to citizens through network connections and related information. However, technology, devices, and information for consumers are required for systematic U-Service planning in towns and cities where there are many difficulties in this regard, and a lack of reference systems. Thus, this study suggests methods to support the establishment of sustainable planning by providing comprehensive information including IT technology, devices, news, and social networking services(SNS) to U-City planners through intelligent searches. In this study, we targeted Smart U-Parking Planning to solve parking problems in an ‘old’ city. Through this study, we sought to contribute to supporting advances in U-Space and the alleviation of urban problems.

Keywords: desigin and decision support system, smart u-parking planning, social network analysis, urban engineering

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Authors: Talha Ali Khan

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Discovering different energy resources to fulfill the world's growing demand is now one of the society’s bigger challenges for the next half-century. The main task is to convert the sun radiation into electricity via photovoltaic solar cells which is suddenly decreasing $/watt of delivered solar electricity. Therefore, in this context the sun trackers are those devices that can be used to ameliorate efficiency. In this paper, a variety of the sun tracking systems are evaluated and their merits and demerits are highlighted. The most adept and proficient sun-tracking devices are polar axis and azimuth-elevation types.

Keywords: dual axis, fixed axis, sun tracker, sun radiation

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Authors: T. Kobayashi, K. Shiba, T. Kaburagi, Y. Kurihara

Abstract:

For the elderly living alone, falls can be a serious problem encountered in daily life. Some elderly people are unable to stand up without the assistance of a caregiver. They may become unconscious after a fall, which can lead to serious aftereffects such as hypothermia, dehydration, and sometimes even death. We treat the subject as an inverted pendulum and model its angle from the equilibrium position and its angular velocity. As the model is non-linear, we implement the filtering method with a particle filter which can estimate true states of the non-linear model. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the particle filter estimation results, we calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the estimated angle/angular velocity and the true values generated by the simulation. The experimental results give the highest accuracy RMSE of 0.0141 rad and 0.1311 rad/s for the angle and angular velocity, respectively.

Keywords: fall, microwave Doppler sensor, non-linear dynamics model, particle filter

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Authors: Maha Awad M. Almuttairi

Abstract:

This research aimed to measure the impact of the use of a mobile learning (iTunes U) app for the development of metacognition skills delivered in the enrichment program offered to gifted students at the secondary level in Jeddah. The author targeted a group of students on an experimental scale to evaluate the achievement. The research sample consisted of a group of 38 gifted female students. The scale of evaluation of the metacognition skills used to measure the performance of students in the enrichment program was as follows: Satisfaction scale for the assessment of the technique used and the final product form after completion of the program. Appropriate statistical treatment used includes Paired Samples T-Test Cronbach’s alpha formula and eta squared formula. It was concluded in the results the difference of α≤ 0.05, which means the performance of students in the skills of metacognition in favor of using iTunes U. In light of the conclusion of the experiment, a number of recommendations and suggestions were present; the most important benefit of mobile learning applications is to provide enrichment programs for gifted students in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as well as conducting further research on mobile learning and gifted student teaching.

Keywords: enrichment program, gifted students, metacognition skills, mobile learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Myriam Ferreira

Abstract:

Websites and social networks allow museums to divulge their works by new and attractive means. Besides, these technologies provide tools to generate a new history of art’s contents and promote visits to their installations. At the same time, museums are proposing more and more activities to families, children and young people. However, these activities usually take place in the museum’s physical installations, while websites and social networks seem to be mainly targeted to adults. The problem is that being children and young people digital natives, they feel apart from museums, so they need a presence of museums in digital means to feel attracted to them. Some institutions are making efforts to fill this vacuum. In this paper, resources designed specifically for children and teenagers have been selected from websites and social networks of five Spanish Museums: Prado Museum, Thyssen Museum, Guggenheim Museum, America Museum and Cerralbo Museum. After that, we have carried out an investigation in a school with children and teenagers between 11 and 15 years old. Those young people have been asked about their valuation of those web pages and social networks, with quantitative-qualitative questions. The results show that the least rated resources were videos and social networks because they were considered ‘too serious’, while the most rated were games and augmented reality. These ratings confirm theoretical papers that affirm that the future of technologies applied to museums is edutainment and interaction.

Keywords: children, museums, social networks, teenagers, websites

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Authors: M. Sneha, N. Meenakshi Sundaram

Abstract:

In recent times, magnetic hyperthermia is used for cancer treatment as a tool for active targeting of delivering drugs to the targeted site. It has a potential advantage over other heat treatment because there is no systemic buildup in organs and large doses are possible. The aim of this study is to develop a suitable magnetic biomaterial that can destroy the cancer cells as well as induce bone regeneration. In this work, the composite material was synthesized in two-steps. First, porous iron oxide nano needles were synthesized by hydrothermal process. Second, the hydroxyapatite, were synthesized from natural calcium (i.e., egg shell) and inorganic phosphorous source using wet chemical method. The crystalline nature is confirmed by powder X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD). Thermal analysis and the surface area of the material is studied by Thermo Gravimetric Analysis (TGA), Brunauer-Emmett and Teller (BET) technique. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) images show that the particles have nanoneedle-like morphology. The magnetic property is studied by vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) technique which confirms the superparamagnetic behavior. This paper presents a simple and easy method for synthesis of magnetite/hydroxyapatite composites materials.

Keywords: iron oxide nano needles, hydroxyapatite, superparamagnetic, hyperthermia

Procedia PDF Downloads 633

Authors: Rishikesh Dingari, Sai Kiran Dornala

Abstract:

In this paper, a simple method of achieving maximum power by mechanical energy transmission device (METD) with integration to induction generator is proposed. METD functioning is explained and dynamic response of system to step input is plotted. Induction generator is being operated at self-excited mode with excitation capacitor at stator. Voltage and current are observed when linked to METD.

Keywords: mechanical energy transmitting device(METD), self-excited induction generator, wind turbine, hydraulic actuators

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Daphne Ashley Sze, Kenneth Santos, Ariane Gabrielle Lim

Abstract:

As women are now given more freedom and choice to pursue employment, the world’s over-all fertility has been decreasing mainly due to the shift in time allocation between working and child rearing. As such, we study the case of the Philippines, where there exists a decreasing fertility rate and increasing openness for women labor participation. We focused on the distinction between fertility and fecundity, the former being the manifestation of the latter and aim to trace and compare the effects of both fecundity and fertility to women’s employment status through the estimation of the reproduction function and multinomial logistic function. Findings suggest that the perception of women regarding employment opportunities in the Philippines links the negative relationship observed between fertility, fecundity and women’s employment status. Today, there has been a convergence in the traditional family roles of men and women, as both genders now have identical employment opportunities that continue to shape their preferences.

Keywords: multinomial logistic function, tobit, fertility, women employment status, fecundity

Procedia PDF Downloads 586

Authors: Khalid Sekkat, Fredj Fhima, Ridha Nouira

Abstract:

This paper focuses on three main limitations of the literature regarding the impact of corruption on democracy. These limitations relate to the distinction between causality and correlation, the components of democracy underlying the impact and the shape of the relationship between corruption and democracy. The study uses recent developments in panel data causality econometrics, breaks democracy down into different components, and examines the types of the relationship. The results show that Control of Corruption leads to a higher quality of democracy. Regarding the estimated coefficients of the components of democracy, they are significant at the 1% level, and their signs and levels are in accordance with expectations except in a few cases. Overall, the results add to the literature in three respects: i). corruption has a causal effect on democracy and, hence, single equation estimation may pose a problem, ii) the assumption of the linearity of the relationships between control of corruption and democracy is also possibly problematic, and iii) the channels of transmission of the effects of corruption on democracy can be diverse. Disentangling them is useful from a policy perspective.

Keywords: corruption, governance, causality, threshold models

Procedia PDF Downloads 27