Search results for: probability weighted moment estimation

Authors: M. Jathaveda, Joben Leons, G. Vidya

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Reentry from orbit is a critical phase in the entry trajectory. For a non-propulsive ballistic entry, static and dynamic stability play an important role in the trajectory, especially for the safe deployment of parachutes, typically at subsonic Mach numbers. Static stability of flight vehicles are being estimated through CFD techniques routinely. Advances in CFD software as well as computational facilities have enabled the estimation of the dynamic stability derivatives also through CFD techniques. Longitudinal static and dynamic stability of a typical reentry body for subsonic Mach number of 0.6 is predicted using commercial software CFD++ and presented here. Steady state simulations are carried out for α = 2° on an unstructured grid using SST k-ω model. Transient simulation using forced oscillation method is used to compute pitch damping derivatives.

Keywords: stability, typical reentry body, subsonic, static and dynamic

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Authors: Sayaka Ono, Ryutaro Imai, Tomoko Ehara, Tetsuya Matsumoto, Hajime Matsumura

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Background: Wound pH affects a number of important factors in wound healing. We previously measured the pH value of the exudates collected from second-degree burns and found that the increase in pH was observed in the burn wounds in which colonized by Staphylococcus spp., and the increase in pH was evident prior to the clinical findings of local infection. To investigate the relationship between the changes of pH value and bacterial growth, we performed in vitro study using Pseudomonas aeruginosa and liquid medium as a locally infected wound equivalent model. Methods: Pseudomonas aeruginosa standard strain (ATCCR 10145TM) was cultured at 37 °C environment in Luria Broth Miller medium. The absorbance rate which means the amount of bacteria was measured by a microplate reader 2300EnSpireTM). The pH was measured using pH-indicator strips (MColorpHastTM). The statistical analysis was performed using the product-moment correlation coefficient of Pearson's. Results: The absorbance rate and pH value were increased along with culture period. There was a positive correlation between pH value and absorbance rate (n = 27, Pearson's r = 0.985). Moreover, there was a positive correlation between pH value and the culture period (n = 18, Pearson's r = 0.901). The bacteria was well growth in the media from pH 6.6 to pH 8.0 and the pH of culture media converged at 8 -9 along with the bacterial growth. Conclusion: From these results, we conclude that pH value of the wound is correlated with the number of viable bacteria and bacterial growth periods.

Keywords: colonization, potential of hydrogen, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, wound

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Authors: Daniel Puciato, Piotr Oleśniewicz, Julita Markiewicz-Patkowska, Krzysztof Widawski, Michał Rozpara, Władysław Mynarski, Agnieszka Gawlik, Małgorzata Dębska, Soňa Jandová

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Physical activity as a part of people’s everyday life reduces the risk of many diseases, including those induced by lifestyle, e.g. obesity, type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis, coronary heart disease, degenerative arthritis, and certain types of cancer. That refers particularly to professionally active people, including the early senior group working on non-manual positions. The aim of the study is to evaluate the relationship between physical activity and the socio-economic status of non-manual workers from Wroclaw—one of the biggest cities in Poland, a model setting for such investigations in this part of Europe. The crucial problem in the research is to find out the percentage of respondents who meet the health-related recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning the volume, frequency, and intensity of physical activity, as well as to establish if the most important socio-economic factors, such as gender, age, education, marital status, per capita income, savings and debt, determine the compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations. During the research, conducted in 2013, 1,170 people (611 women and 559 men) aged 21–60 years were examined. A diagnostic poll method was applied to collect the data. Physical activity was measured with the use of the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire with extended socio-demographic questions, i.e. concerning gender, age, education, marital status, income, savings or debts. To evaluate the relationship between physical activity and selected socio-economic factors, logistic regression was used (odds ratio statistics). Statistical inference was conducted on the adopted ex ante probability level of p<0.05. The majority of respondents met the volume of physical effort recommended for health benefits. It was particularly noticeable in the case of the examined men. The probability of compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations was highest for workers aged 21–30 years with secondary or higher education who were single, received highest incomes and had savings. The results indicate the relations between physical activity and socio-economic status in the examined women and men. People with lower socio-economic status (e.g. manual workers) are physically active primarily at work, whereas those better educated and wealthier implement physical effort primarily in their leisure time. Among the investigated subjects, the youngest group of non-manual workers have the best chances to meet the WHO standards of physical activity. The study also confirms that secondary education has a positive effect on the public awareness on the role of physical activity in human life. In general, the analysis of the research indicates that there is a relationship between physical activity and some socio-economic factors of the respondents, such as gender, age, education, marital status, income per capita, and the possession of savings. Although the obtained results cannot be applied for the general population, they show some important trends that will be verified in subsequent studies conducted by the authors of the paper.

Keywords: IPAQ, nonmanual workers, physical activity, socioeconomic factors, WHO

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Authors: Svetlana K. Eden

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Movies and TV shows have long become part of modern culture. We all have our preferred genre, story, actors, and actresses. However, can we objectively discern good acting from the bad? As laymen, we are probably not objective, but what about the Oscar academy members? Are their votes based on objective measures? Oscar academy members are probably also biased due to many factors, including their professional affiliations or advertisement exposure. Heavily advertised films bring more publicity to their cast and are likely to have bigger budgets. Because a bigger budget may also help earn a Best Picture (BP) nomination, we hypothesize that best actor/actress (BA) nominees from BP-nominated movies would have higher chances of winning the award than those BA nominees from non-BP-nominated films. To test this hypothesis, three Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed, and their performance is evaluated. The results from all three models largely support our hypothesis. Depending on the proportion of BP nominations among BA nominees, the odds ratios (estimated over expected) of winning the BA award conditional on BP nomination vary from 2.8 [0.8-7.0] to 4.3 [2.0, 15.8] for actors and from 1.5 [0.0, 12.2] to 5.4 [2.7, 14.2] for actresses.

Keywords: Oscar, best picture, best actor/actress, bias

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Authors: Azade Sedigh, Mehrdad Modaresi, Akbar Pirestani

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Appropriate nutrition is necessary today for desire reproduction and profitable livestock industry. Minerals including zinc element are from nutritional factors. Studies show that zinc plays an important role in reproduction process and secretion of reproductive hormones. This study was carried out to determine the effects of organic zinc on some reproductive hormones, fertility of male mice. The study was done as completely randomized design with one control and six treatment groups. Seventy male mature mice were kept for 35 days to adapt to environment and then divided in seven groups with ten replications. Samples received zinc (organic) daily in 50,100, and 150 ppm doses of each type for 35 days. At the end, blood samples were taken to measure LH, FSH, and testosterone hormones. Meanwhile, fertility rates were measured. Results were analyzed using one way ANOVA and means were compared using Duncan multiple ranges test at 5% probability level. According to results, LH concentration of all groups except 50 ppm was increased significantly (p<0.05). FSH amount was increased significantly (p<0.05) in 100 ppm mineral group and reduced in 50 ppm mineral but was not changed in other groups.

Keywords: organic supplements, zinc, reproductive hormones, fertility

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Authors: M. Sohail Hasan, Wichuda Munbua, Chikako Fujiyama, Koichi Maekawa

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During the past few years, offshore wind energy has become the key parameter to reduce carbon emissions. In most of the previous studies, floaters in floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) are made up of steel. However, fatigue and corrosion are always major concerns of steel marine structures. Recently, researchers are working on concrete floating substructures. In this paper, the conceptual design of pre-cast panel-based economical and durable reinforced concrete floating substructure for a 10 MW offshore wind turbine is proposed. The new geometrical shape, i.e., hexagon with inside hollow boxes, is proposed under static conditions. To design the outer panel/side walls to resist hydrostatic forces, special consideration for durability is given to limit the crack width within permissible range under service limit state. A comprehensive system is proposed for transferring the ultimate moment and shear due to strong wind at the connection between steel tower and concrete floating substructure. Moreover, a stable connection is also designed considering the fatigue of concrete and steel due to the fluctuation of stress from the mooring line. This conceptual design will be verified by subsequent dynamic analysis soon.

Keywords: cracks width control, mooring line, reinforced concrete floater, steel tower

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Authors: Raya Al Khayari, Rasha Al Jassim, Muna Al Balushi, Fatma Al Moqbali, Said El Hajjar

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This study utilizes linear regression analysis to investigate the correlation between user account passwords and the probability of civil ID exposure, offering statistical insights into civil ID security. The study employs multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to further investigate the elements that influence consumers’ views of civil ID security. This aims to increase awareness and improve preventive measures. The results obtained from the MLR analysis provide a thorough comprehension and can guide specific educational and awareness campaigns aimed at promoting improved security procedures. In summary, the study’s results offer significant insights for improving existing security measures and developing more efficient tactics to reduce risks related to civil ID security in Oman. By identifying key factors that impact consumers’ perceptions, organizations can tailor their strategies to address vulnerabilities effectively. Additionally, the findings can inform policymakers on potential regulatory changes to enhance civil ID security in the country.

Keywords: civil-id disclosure, awareness, linear regression, multiple regression

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Authors: Tallataf Rasheed, Adnan Rashdi, Ahmad Naeem Akhtar

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The accurate spectrum sensing is a fundamental requirement of dynamic spectrum access for deployment of Cognitive Radio Network (CRN). To acheive this requirement a Reliability factors based Fuzzy Logic (RFL) Scheme for Spectrum Sensing has been proposed in this paper. Cognitive Radio User (CRU) predicts the presence or absence of Primary User (PU) using energy detector and calculates the Reliability factors which are SNR of sensing node, threshold of energy detector and decision difference of each node with other nodes in a cooperative spectrum sensing environment. Then the decision of energy detector is combined with Reliability factors of sensing node using Fuzzy Logic. These Reliability Factors used in RFL Scheme describes the reliability of decision made by a CRU to improve the local spectrum sensing. This Fuzzy combining scheme provides the accuracy of decision made by sensornode. The simulation results have shown that the proposed technique provide better PU detection probability than existing Spectrum Sensing Techniques.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, energy detector, reliability factors, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Halil Koch

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In this article, besides the current tourism potential of Kyrgyzstan, the factors that may affect the tourism potential of Kyrgyzstan were discussed. Kyrgyzstan is a unique country that can offer quite different alternatives for tourism with its unique nature, lakes, mountains, history, and rich culture. Despite having so many alternatives, today, Kyrgyzstan cannot use this unique wealth as it should. This article tried to deal with matters that can increase the tourism potential of Kyrgyzstan. In addition, the contribution of ethical rules to the tourism potential of Kyrgyzstan was discussed. A detailed literature review was carried out on the tourism industry and tourism potential of Kyrgyzstan. After the literature review, a survey was conducted with the businesses and employees of touristic businesses in the Issyk Kul region of Kyrgyzstan in order to determine the factors that might improve the tourism potential and the effect of ethical rules on the tourism of Kyrgyzstan. 100 people participated in the survey. According to the results of the survey, the participants of the survey think that the culture, touristic richness, and unique nature of Kyrgyzstan are not promoted effectively. Participants think that Kyrgyzstan's tourism capacity will increase with the effective implementation of ethical rules as well as the effective promotion of Kyrgyzstan's cultural and natural wealth. According to the results of the survey, participants think that the tourism sector in Kyrgyzstan will develop rapidly if the ethical rules are followed as much as possible from the first moment that the tourists who come to the country set foot in the country. Participants predict that ethical rules have a tremendous impact on Kyrgyzstan tourism. It has been revealed that there is no systematic approach to ethical rules.

Keywords: tourism, ethics, growth, economy

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Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

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As energetic and environmental issues are getting more and more attention all around the world, the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) mainly those harvesting renewable energies (REs) ascends with an unprecedented rate. This matter causes more uncertainties to appear in the power system context; ergo, the uncertainty analysis of the system performance is an obligation. The uncertainties of any system can be represented probabilistically or possibilistically. Since sufficient historical data about all the system variables is not available, therefore, they do not have a probability density function (PDF) and must be represented possibilistiacally. When some of system uncertain variables are probabilistic and some are possibilistic, neither the conventional pure probabilistic nor pure possibilistic methods can be implemented. Hence, a combined solution is appealed. The first of this two-paper series formulates a new possibilistic-probabilistic tool for the load flow uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. This possibilistic- probabilistic formulation is solved in the second companion paper in an uncertain load flow (ULF) study problem.

Keywords: probabilistic uncertainty modeling, possibilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

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Authors: A: Annis Fathima, V. Vaidehi, S. Ajitha

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Face recognition system finds many applications in surveillance and human computer interaction systems. As the applications using face recognition systems are of much importance and demand more accuracy, more robustness in the face recognition system is expected with less computation time. In this paper, a hybrid approach for face recognition combining Gabor Wavelet and Linear Discriminant Analysis (HGWLDA) is proposed. The normalized input grayscale image is approximated and reduced in dimension to lower the processing overhead for Gabor filters. This image is convolved with bank of Gabor filters with varying scales and orientations. LDA, a subspace analysis techniques are used to reduce the intra-class space and maximize the inter-class space. The techniques used are 2-dimensional Linear Discriminant Analysis (2D-LDA), 2-dimensional bidirectional LDA ((2D)2LDA), Weighted 2-dimensional bidirectional Linear Discriminant Analysis (Wt (2D)2 LDA). LDA reduces the feature dimension by extracting the features with greater variance. k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN) classifier is used to classify and recognize the test image by comparing its feature with each of the training set features. The HGWLDA approach is robust against illumination conditions as the Gabor features are illumination invariant. This approach also aims at a better recognition rate using less number of features for varying expressions. The performance of the proposed HGWLDA approaches is evaluated using AT&T database, MIT-India face database and faces94 database. It is found that the proposed HGWLDA approach provides better results than the existing Gabor approach.

Keywords: face recognition, Gabor wavelet, LDA, k-NN classifier

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Authors: Mauricio Filho, Carina Castro

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The object of this project is to analyze long-time public agents that passed through several governments and see themselves in the position of having to deliberate with new agents, recently settled in the public administration. For theoretical ends, internal deliberation is understood as the one practiced on the public administration agencies, without any direct participation from the general public in the process. The assumption is: agents with longer periods of public service tend to step away from momentary political discussions that guide the current administration and seek to concentrate on institutionalized routines and procedures, making the most politically aligned individuals with the current government deliberate with less "passion" and more exchanging of knowledge and information. The theoretical framework of this research is institutionalism, which is guided by a more pragmatic view, facing the fluidity of reality in ways showing the multiple relations between agents and their respective institutions. The critical aspirations of this project rest on the works of professors Cass Sunstein, Adrian Vermeule, Philipp Pettit and in literature from both institutional theory and economic analysis of law, greatly influenced by the Chicago Law School. Methodologically, the paper is a theoretical review and pretends to be unfolded, in a future moment, in empirical tests for verification. This work has as its main analytical tool the appeal to theoretical and doctrinaire areas from the Juridical Sciences, by adopting the deductive and analytical method.

Keywords: institutions, state, law, agencies

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Authors: Burcu Kaya, Jan-Martin Kaiser, Karl-Friedrich Becker, Tanja Braun, Klaus-Dieter Lang

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Quality of the molded packages is strongly influenced by the process parameters of the transfer molding. To achieve a better package quality and a stable transfer molding process, it is necessary to understand the influence of the process parameters on the package quality. This work aims to comprehend the relationship between the process parameters, and to identify the optimum process parameters for the transfer molding process in order to achieve less voids and wire sweep. To achieve this, a DoE is executed for process optimization and a regression analysis is carried out. A systematic approach is represented to generate models which enable an estimation of the number of voids and wire sweep. Validation experiments are conducted to verify the model and the results are presented.

Keywords: dielectric analysis, electronic packages, epoxy molding compounds, transfer molding process

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Authors: Yuchen Yang, Zhenming Wang, Jun Zhu, Ning Zhao

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An easy-to-implement and robust finite volume multi-resolution Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO) scheme is proposed on adaptive cartesian grids in this paper. Such a multi-resolution WENO scheme is combined with the ghost cell immersed boundary method (IBM) and wall-function technique to solve Navier-Stokes equations. Unlike the k-exact finite volume WENO schemes which involve large amounts of extra storage, repeatedly solving the matrix generated in a least-square method or the process of calculating optimal linear weights on adaptive cartesian grids, the present methodology only adds very small overhead and can be easily implemented in existing edge-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes with minor modifications. Also, the linear weights of this adaptive finite volume multi-resolution WENO scheme can be any positive numbers on condition that their sum is one. It is a way of bypassing the calculation of the optimal linear weights and such a multi-resolution WENO scheme avoids dealing with the negative linear weights on adaptive cartesian grids. Some benchmark viscous problems are numerical solved to show the efficiency and good performance of this adaptive multi-resolution WENO scheme. Compared with a second-order edge-based method, the presented method can be implemented into an adaptive cartesian grid with slight modification for big Reynolds number problems.

Keywords: adaptive mesh refinement method, finite volume multi-resolution WENO scheme, immersed boundary method, wall-function technique.

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Authors: Jiahe Liu, Hongyang Yu, Miao Luo, Feng Qian

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The widespread application of 3D human body reconstruction spans various fields. Smplify-X, an algorithm reliant on single-image input, employs three distinct body parameter templates, necessitating gender classification of individuals within the input image. Researchers employed a ResNet18 network to train a gender classifier within the Smplify-X framework, setting the threshold at 0.9, designating images falling below this threshold as having neutral gender. This model achieved 62.38% accurate predictions and 7.54% incorrect predictions. Our improvement involved refining the MobileNet network, resulting in a raised threshold of 0.97. Consequently, we attained 78.89% accurate predictions and a mere 0.2% incorrect predictions, markedly enhancing prediction precision and enabling more precise 3D human body reconstruction.

Keywords: SMPLX, mobileNet, gender classification, 3D human reconstruction

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Authors: Aicha Bouhlala, Sabah Chettibi

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A systematic investigation on structural, electronic, and magnetic properties of Ce₀.₇₅A₀.₂₅O₂ (A = W, Mo) is performed using first-principles calculations within the framework Full-Potential Linear Augmented Plane Wave (FP-LAPW) method based on the Density Functional Theory (DFT). The exchange-correlation potential has been treated using the generalized gradient approximation (WC-GGA) developed by Wu-Cohen. The host compound CeO2 was doped with transition metal atoms W and Mo in the doping concentration of 25% to replace the Ce atom. In structural properties, the equilibrium lattice constant is observed for the W-doped CeO₂ compound which exists within the value of 5.314 A° and the value of 5.317 A° for Mo-doped CeO2. The present results show that Ce₀.₇₅A₀.₂₅O₂ (A=W, Mo) systems exhibit semiconducting behavior in both spin channels. Although undoped CeO₂ is a non-magnetic semiconductor. The band structure of these doped compounds was plotted and they exhibit direct band gap at the Fermi level (EF) in the majority and minority spin channels. In the magnetic properties, the doped atoms W and Mo play a vital role in increasing the magnetic moments of the supercell and the values of the total magnetic moment are found to be 1.998 μB for Ce₀.₇₅W₀.₂₅O₂ and to be 2.002 μB for Ce₀.₇₅Mo₀.₂₅O₂ compounds. Calculated results indicate that the magneto-electronic properties of the Ce₁₋ₓAₓO₂(A= W, Mo) oxides supply a new way to the experimentalist for the potential applications in spintronics devices.

Keywords: FP-LAPW, DFT, CeO₂, properties

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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In this paper, groundwater seepage into Amirkabir tunnel has been estimated using analytical and numerical methods for 14 different sections of the tunnel. Site Groundwater Rating (SGR) method also has been performed for qualitative and quantitative classification of the tunnel sections. The obtained results of above-mentioned methods were compared together. The study shows reasonable accordance with results of the all methods unless for two sections of tunnel. In these two sections there are some significant discrepancies between numerical and analytical results mainly originated from model geometry and high overburden. SGR and the analytical and numerical calculations, confirm the high concentration of seepage inflow in fault zones. Maximum seepage flow into tunnel has been estimated 0.425 lit/sec/m using analytical method and 0.628 lit/sec/m using numerical method occurred in crashed zone. Based on SGR method, six sections of 14 sections in Amirkabir tunnel axis are found to be in "No Risk" class that is supported by the analytical and numerical seepage value of less than 0.04 lit/sec/m.

Keywords: water Seepage, Amirkabir Tunnel, analytical method, DEM, SGR

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Authors: Mohamed Noureldin, Jinkoo Kim

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The sensitivity of the seismic response parameters to the uncertain modeling variables of pile-founded fixed steel jacket platforms are investigated using tornado diagram, first-order second-moment, and static pushover analysis techniques. The effects of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty on seismic response parameters have been investigated for an existing offshore platform. The sources of uncertainty considered in the present study are categorized into three different categories: the uncertainties associated with the soil-pile modeling parameters in clay soil, the platform jacket structure modeling parameters, and the uncertainties related to ground motion excitations. It has been found that the variability in parameters such as yield strength or pile bearing capacity has almost no effect on the seismic response parameters considered, whereas the global structural response is highly affected by the ground motion uncertainty. Also, some uncertainty in soil-pile property such as soil-pile friction capacity has a significant impact on the response parameters and should be carefully modeled. Based on the results, it is highlighted that which uncertain parameters should be considered carefully and which can be assumed with reasonable engineering judgment during the early structural design stage of fixed steel jacket platforms.

Keywords: fixed jacket offshore platform, pile-soil structure interaction, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Fuchun Li, Hong Xiao

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We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.

Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons

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Authors: Fazia Rahmoune, Sofiane Ziani

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Retrial queueing systems have been extensively used to stochastically model many problems arising in computer networks, telecommunication, telephone systems, among others. In this work, we consider a $M/G/1$ retrial queue with an unreliable server with random vacations and two types of primary customers, persistent and impatient. This model involves the unreliability of the server, which can be subject to physical breakdowns and takes into account the correctives maintenances for restoring the service when a failure occurs. On the other hand, we consider random vacations, which can model the preventives maintenances for improving system performances and preventing breakdowns. We give the necessary and sufficient stability condition of the system. Then, we obtain the joint probability distribution of the server state and the number of customers in orbit and derive the more useful performance measures analytically. Moreover, we also analyze the busy period of the system. Finally, we derive the stability condition and the generating function of the stationary distribution of the number of customers in the system when there is no vacations and impatient customers, and when there is no vacations, server failures and impatient customers.

Keywords: modeling, retrial queue, unreliable server, vacation, stochastic analysis

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Authors: Mai Ghazal, Ahmed Hammad

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Cost overruns in construction projects are considered as worldwide challenges since the cost performance is one of the main measures of success along with schedule performance. To overcome this problem, studies were conducted to investigate the cost overruns' factors, also projects' historical data were analyzed to extract new and useful knowledge from it. This research is studying and analyzing the effect of some factors causing cost overruns using the historical data from completed construction projects. Then, using these factors to estimate the probability of cost overrun occurrence and predict its percentage for future projects. First, an intensive literature review was done to study all the factors that cause cost overrun in construction projects, then another review was done for previous researcher papers about mining process in dealing with cost overruns. Second, a proposed data warehouse was structured which can be used by organizations to store their future data in a well-organized way so it can be easily analyzed later. Third twelve quantitative factors which their data are frequently available at construction projects were selected to be the analyzed factors and suggested predictors for the proposed model.

Keywords: construction management, construction projects, cost overrun, cost performance, data mining, data warehousing, knowledge discovery, knowledge management

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Authors: Yanto Santosa, Dede Aulia Rahman, Cory Wulan, Abdul Haris Mustari

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The global demand for long-tailed macaques for medical experimentation has continued to increase. Fulfillment of Indonesian export demands has been mostly from natural habitats, based on a harvesting quota. This quota has been determined according to the total catch for a given year, and not based on consideration of any demographic parameters or physical environmental factors with regard to the animal; hence threatening the sustainability of the various populations. It is therefore necessary to formulate a method for calculating a sustainable harvesting quota, based on population parameters in natural habitats. Considering the possibility of variations in habitat characteristics and population parameters, a time series observation of demographic and physical/biotic parameters, in various habitats, was performed on 13 groups of long-tailed macaques, distributed throughout the West Java, Lampung and Yogyakarta areas of Indonesia. These provinces were selected for comparison of the influence of human/tourism activities. Data on population parameters that was collected included data on life expectancy according to age class, numbers of individuals by sex and age class, and ‘ratio of infants to reproductive females’. The estimation of population growth was based on a population dynamic growth model: the Leslie matrix. The harvesting quota was calculated as being the difference between the actual population size and the MVP (minimum viable population) for each sex and age class. Observation indicated that there were variations within group size (24 – 106 individuals), gender (sex) ratio (1:1 to 1:1.3), life expectancy value (0.30 to 0.93), and ‘ratio of infants to reproductive females’ (0.23 to 1.56). Results of subsequent calculations showed that sustainable harvesting quotas for each studied group of long-tailed macaques, ranged from 29 to 110 individuals. An estimation model of the MVP for each age class was formulated as Log Y = 0.315 + 0.884 Log Ni (number of individual on ith age class). This study also found that life expectancy for the juvenile age class was affected by the humidity under tree stands, and dietary plants’ density at sapling, pole and tree stages (equation: Y= 2.296 – 1.535 RH + 0.002 Kpcg – 0.002 Ktg – 0.001 Kphn, R2 = 89.6% with a significance value of 0.001). By contrast, for the sub-adult-adult age class, life expectancy was significantly affected by slope (equation: Y=0.377 = 0.012 Kml, R2 = 50.4%, with significance level of 0.007). The infant to reproductive female ratio was affected by humidity under tree stands, and dietary plant density at sapling and pole stages (equation: Y = -1.432 + 2.172 RH – 0.004 Kpcg + 0.003 Ktg, R2 = 82.0% with significance level of 0.001). This research confirmed the importance of population parameters in determining the minimum viable population, and that MVP varied according to habitat characteristics (especially food availability). It would be difficult therefore, to formulate a general mathematical equation model for determining a harvesting quota for the species as a whole.

Keywords: harvesting, long-tailed macaque, population, quota

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Authors: Yang Jian-Hong, Zhang Ren-Cheng, Huang Li

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Arc fault is one of the main inducements of electric fires. Arc Fault Detection Device (AFDD) can detect arc fault effectively. Arc fault detections and unhooking standards are the keys to AFDD practical application. First, an arc fault continuous production system was developed, which could count the arc half wave number. Then, Combining with the UL1699 standard, ignition probability curve of cotton and unhooking time of various currents intensity were obtained by experiments. The combustion degree of arc fault could be expressed effectively by arc area. Experiments proved that electric fires would be misjudged or missed only using arc half wave number as AFDD unhooking basis. At last, Practical tests were carried out on the self-developed AFDD system. The result showed that actual AFDD unhooking time was the sum of arc half wave cycling number, Arc wave identification time and unhooking mechanical operation time And the first two shared shorter time. Unhooking time standard depended on the shortest mechanical operation time.

Keywords: arc fault detection device, arc area, arc half wave, unhooking time, arc fault

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Authors: Talat Baran

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Palladium-catalyzed Suzuki coupling reactions are powerful ways for synthesis of biaryls compounds and so far different palladium sources as have been used in catalyst systems. However, the high cost of the ligands using as support materials for palladium ion and so researchers have explored alternative low-cost support materials such as silica, cellule and zeolite. A natural polymer chitosan is suitable for support material because of it unique properties such as eco-friendly, renewable, abundant, low cost, biodegradable and it has free reactive -NH2 and –OH groups. Especially, pendant amino groups of chitosan can easily react with carbonyl groups of aldehyde or ketone by Schiff base formation and thus palladium ions can coordinate with imine groups of Schiff base. This purpose, in this study, firstly a new chitosan Schiff base supported palladium (II) catalyst was synthesized and its chemical structure was characterized with FT-IR, SEM/EDAX, XRD, TG-DTG, ICP-OES and magnetic moment techniques. Then catalytic performance of the catalyst was investigated in Suzuki cross coupling reactions under simple and fast microwave heating methods. Also, recycle activity of palladium catalyst was tested under optimum condition and the catalyst showed long life time. At the end of catalytic performance tests of chitosan supported palladium (II) catalysts indicated high turnover numbers, turnover frequency and selectivity with very small loading catalyst

Keywords: catalyst, chitosan, Schiff base, Suzuki coupling

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Authors: Ahmed ElAzab, Amira M. Idrees, Mahmoud A. Mahmoud, Hesham Hefny

Abstract:

Social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook attracts over 500 million users across the world, for those users, their social life, even their practical life, has become interrelated. Their interaction with social networking has affected their life forever. Accordingly, social networking sites have become among the main channels that are responsible for vast dissemination of different kinds of information during real time events. This popularity in Social networking has led to different problems including the possibility of exposing incorrect information to their users through fake accounts which results to the spread of malicious content during life events. This situation can result to a huge damage in the real world to the society in general including citizens, business entities, and others. In this paper, we present a classification method for detecting fake accounts on Twitter. The study determines the minimized set of the main factors that influence the detection of the fake accounts on Twitter, then the determined factors have been applied using different classification techniques, a comparison of the results for these techniques has been performed and the most accurate algorithm is selected according to the accuracy of the results. The study has been compared with different recent research in the same area, this comparison has proved the accuracy of the proposed study. We claim that this study can be continuously applied on Twitter social network to automatically detect the fake accounts, moreover, the study can be applied on different Social network sites such as Facebook with minor changes according to the nature of the social network which are discussed in this paper.

Keywords: fake accounts detection, classification algorithms, twitter accounts analysis, features based techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Neta Kela Madar, Tali Teeni-Harari, Tamar Icekson, Yaron Sela

Abstract:

This paper proposes and empirically tests a theoretical model positing relationships between dispositional optimism, emotional intelligence, and entrepreneurial intention. To author's best knowledge, this study examined for the first time the role of dispositional optimism together with emotional intelligence as predictors of entrepreneurial intentions. The study findings suggest that optimism may increase entrepreneurial intentions indirectly by enhancing emotional intelligence/ model formulation is based on a random survey of students (N= 227). Model parameter estimation was supported by Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Results indicate that students’ optimism and emotional intelligence are associated with increased levels of entrepreneurial intention. Additionally, the present study argues that emotional intelligence mediates the positive relationship between optimism and entrepreneurial intention. Theoretical and practical implications of this model are discussed.

Keywords: entrepreneurial intentions, emotional intelligence, optimism, dispositional optimism

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Joon-Yeop Na, Sang-Keun Baik, Kyu-Soo Chong

Abstract:

Road sign sizes are related to their support and foundation, and the large-scale support that is generally installed at roadsides can cause inconvenience to pedestrians and damage the urban landscape. The most influential factor in determining the support and foundation of road signs is the wind load. In this study, we introduce a hole-type road sign to analyze its effects on reducing wind load. A hole-type road sign reduces the drag coefficient that is applied when considering the air and fluid resistance of a plate when the wind pressure is calculated, thus serving as an effective option for lightening the weights of road sign structures. A hole-type road sign is punctured with a perforator. Furthermore, the size of the holes and their distance is determined considering the damage to characters, the poor performance of reflective sheets, and legibility. For the calculation of the optimal specification of a hole-type road sign, we undertook a theoretical examination for reducing the wind loads on hole-type road signs, and analyzed the bending and reflectivity of sample road sign plates. The analytic results confirmed that a hole-type road sign sample that contains holes of 6 mm in diameter with a distance of 18 mm between the holes shows reflectivity closest to that of existing road signs; moreover, the average bending moment resulted in a reduction of 4.24%, and the support’s diameter is reduced by 40.2%.

Keywords: hole type, road sign, weight lightening, wind load

Procedia PDF Downloads 539

Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

Abstract:

In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: M. Tahir Demirsel, Mustafa Atsan

Abstract:

Many elements of the environment in which businesses operate today leave them faced with unexpected threats and opportunities. One of the major threats is business crisis. The crisis is a state of affairs in a business wherein the executives must take urgent and unprecedented action to try to save the business from failure. In order to survive in the business environment, organizations should be prepared for the potential crises. Technological developments, uncertainty in the market and the intense competition increase the probability of encountering a crisis for organizations. Therefore, by acting proactively to predict crisis, to detect signals of crisis and be prepared for a crisis by taking necessary precautions accordingly, is of great importance for businesses. In this context, the objective of this study is to reveal that how much organizations are proactive and can predict the future crises and investigate whether they are prepared for possible crises or not. The research was conducted on 222 business executives in one of the major industrial zones of Turkey, Konya Organized Industrial Zone (KOS). The findings are analyzed through descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis. According to the results, it has been observed that organizations cannot predict the crisis signals and are not prepared for potential crises.

Keywords: crisis preparedness, crisis signals, industrial organizations, proactivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 505

Authors: Moustafa Osman

Abstract:

Modeling of air pollutants from the accidental release is performed for quantifying the impact of industrial facilities into the ambient air. The mathematical methods are requiring for the prediction of the accidental scenario in probability of failure-safe mode and analysis consequences to quantify the environmental damage upon human health. The initial statement of mitigation plan is supporting implementation during production and maintenance periods. In a number of mathematical methods, the flow rate at which gaseous and liquid pollutants might be accidentally released is determined from various types in term of point, line and area sources. These emissions are integrated meteorological conditions in simplified stability parameters to compare dispersion coefficients from non-continuous air pollution plumes. The differences are reflected in concentrations levels and greenhouse effect to transport the parcel load in both urban and rural areas. This research reveals that the elevation effect nearby buildings with other structure is higher 5 times more than open terrains. These results are agreed with Sutton suggestion for dispersion coefficients in different stability classes.

Keywords: air pollutants, dispersion modeling, GIS, health effect, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 354