Search results for: mathematical beliefs

Authors: Sang-Keun Moon, Hong-Rok Lim, Jin-O Kim

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This paper presents a Power Quality (PQ) modeling and filtering processes for the distribution system disturbances using recognition learning methods. Typical PQ waveforms with mathematical applications and gathered field data are applied to the proposed models. The objective of this paper is analyzing PQ data with respect to monitoring, discriminating, and evaluating the waveform of power disturbances to ensure the system preventative system failure protections and complex system problem estimations. Examined signal filtering techniques are used for the field waveform noises and feature extractions. Using extraction and learning classification techniques, the efficiency was verified for the recognition of the PQ disturbances with focusing on interactive modeling methods in this paper. The waveform of selected 8 disturbances is modeled with randomized parameters of IEEE 1159 PQ ranges. The range, parameters, and weights are updated regarding field waveform obtained. Along with voltages, currents have same process to obtain the waveform features as the voltage apart from some of ratings and filters. Changing loads are causing the distortion in the voltage waveform due to the drawing of the different patterns of current variation. In the conclusion, PQ disturbances in the voltage and current waveforms indicate different types of patterns of variations and disturbance, and a modified technique based on the symmetrical components in time domain was proposed in this paper for the PQ disturbances detection and then classification. Our method is based on the fact that obtained waveforms from suggested trigger conditions contain potential information for abnormality detections. The extracted features are sequentially applied to estimation and recognition learning modules for further studies.

Keywords: power quality recognition, PQ modeling, waveform feature extraction, disturbance trigger condition, PQ signal filtering

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Authors: Z. B. Ibrahim, N. Ismail, K. I. Othman

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Fuzzy Differential Equations (FDEs) play an important role in modelling many real life phenomena. The FDEs are used to model the behaviour of the problems that are subjected to uncertainty, vague or imprecise information that constantly arise in mathematical models in various branches of science and engineering. These uncertainties have to be taken into account in order to obtain a more realistic model and many of these models are often difficult and sometimes impossible to obtain the analytic solutions. Thus, many authors have attempted to extend or modified the existing numerical methods developed for solving Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) into fuzzy version in order to suit for solving the FDEs. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed the development of a fuzzy version of three-point block method based on Block Backward Differentiation Formulas (FBBDF) for the numerical solution of first order FDEs. The three-point block FBBDF method are implemented in uniform step size produces three new approximations simultaneously at each integration step using the same back values. Newton iteration of the FBBDF is formulated and the implementation is based on the predictor and corrector formulas in the PECE mode. For greater efficiency of the block method, the coefficients of the FBBDF are stored at the start of the program. The proposed FBBDF is validated through numerical results on some standard problems found in the literature and comparisons are made with the existing fuzzy version of the Modified Simpson and Euler methods in terms of the accuracy of the approximated solutions. The numerical results show that the FBBDF method performs better in terms of accuracy when compared to the Euler method when solving the FDEs.

Keywords: block, backward differentiation formulas, first order, fuzzy differential equations

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Authors: Gospel Iyioku, Jana Mazancova, Jiri Hejkrlik

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The “Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016–2020)” represents a strategic initiative by the Nigerian government to address domestic food shortages and the challenges in exporting products at the required quality standards. Hindered by an inefficient system for setting and enforcing food quality standards, coupled with a lack of market knowledge, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) aims to enhance support for the production and activities of key crops like cashew. By collaborating with farmers, processors, investors, and stakeholders in the cashew sector, the policy seeks to define and uphold high-quality standards across the cashew value chain. Given the challenges and opportunities faced by Nigerian cashew farmers, active participation in cashew marketing groups becomes imperative. These groups serve as essential platforms for farmers to collectively navigate market intricacies, access resources, share knowledge, improve output quality, and bolster their overall bargaining power. Through engagement in these cooperative initiatives, farmers not only boost their economic prospects but can also contribute significantly to the sustainable growth of the cashew industry, fostering resilience and community development. This study explores the perceptions and intentions of farmers regarding their involvement in cashew marketing cooperatives, utilizing an expanded version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Drawing insights from a diverse sample of 321 cashew farmers in Southwest Nigeria, the research sheds light on the factors influencing decision-making in cooperative participation. The demographic analysis reveals a diverse landscape, with a substantial presence of middle-aged individuals contributing significantly to the agricultural sector and cashew-related activities emerging as a primary income source for a substantial proportion (23.99%). Employing Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with Maximum Likelihood Robust (MLR) estimation in R, the research elucidates the associations among latent variables. Despite the model’s complexity, the goodness-of-fit indices attest to the validity of the structural model, explaining approximately 40% of the variance in the intention to join cooperatives. Moral norms emerge as a pivotal construct, highlighting the profound influence of ethical considerations in decision-making processes, while perceived behavioural control presents potential challenges in active participation. Attitudes toward joining cooperatives reveal nuanced perspectives, with strong beliefs in enhanced connections with other farmers but varying perceptions on improved access to essential information. The SEM analysis establishes positive and significant effects of moral norms, perceived behavioural control, subjective norms, and attitudes on farmers’ intention to join cooperatives. The knowledge construct positively affects key factors influencing intention, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making. A supplementary analysis using partial least squares (PLS) SEM corroborates the robustness of our findings, aligning with covariance-based SEM results. This research unveils the determinants of cooperative participation and provides valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to empower and support this vital demographic in the cashew industry.

Keywords: marketing cooperatives, theory of planned behaviour, structural equation modelling, cashew farmers

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Authors: Md. Rezaul Karim, Md. Ashikur Rahman, Dewan Mahmud Mim

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Scarcity of potable water as the result of rapid climate change and saltwater intrusion in groundwater has been a major problem in the coastal regions over the world. In equinoctial countries like Bangladesh, where sunlight is available for more than 10 hours a day, Solar Distillation provides a promising sustainable way for safe drinking water supply in coastal poor households with negligible major cost and difficulty of construction and maintenance. In this paper, two passive type solar stills- a Conventional Single Slope Solar still (CSS) and a Pyramid Solar Sill (PSS) is used and relationship is established between distill water output corresponding to four different factors- temperature, solar intensity, relative humidity and wind speed for Gazipur, Bangladesh. Comparison is analyzed between the two different still outputs for nine months period (January- September) and efficiency is calculated. Later a thermal mathematical model is developed and the distilled water output for Khulna, Bangladesh is computed. Again, difference between the output of the two cities- Gazipur and Khulna is demonstrated and finally an economic analysis is prepared. The distillation output has a positive correlation with temperature and solar intensity, inverse relation with relative humidity and wind speed has nugatory consequence. The maximum output of Conventional Solar Still is obtained 3.8 L/m2/day and Pyramid still is 4.3 L/m2/day for Gazipur and almost 15% more efficiency is found for Pyramid still. Productivity in Khulna is found almost 20% more than Gazipur. Based on economic analysis, taking 10 BDT, per liter, the net profit, benefit cost ratio, payback period all indicates that both stills are feasible but pyramid still is more feasible than Conventional Still. Finally, for a 3-4 member family, area of 4 m2 is suggested for Conventional Still and 3m2 for Pyramid Solar Still.

Keywords: solar distillation, household water supply, saline zones, Bangladesh

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Authors: Raghavi Janaswamy, Saraswathi K. Vasudev

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Music is ubiquitous in human lives. Ever since the fetus hears the sound inside the mother’s womb and later upon birth, the baby experiences alluring sounds, the curiosity of learning emanates and evokes exploration. Music is an education than mere entertainment. The intricate balance between music, education, and entertainment has well been recognized by the scientific community and is being explored as a viable tool to understand and improve human cognition. There are seven basic swaras (notes) Sa, Ri, Ga, Ma, Pa, Da, and Ni in the Carnatic music system that are analogous to C, D, E, F, G, A, and B of the western system. The Carnatic music builds on the conscious use of microtones, gamakams (oscillation), and rendering styles that evolved over centuries and established its stance. The complex but erudite raga system has been designed with elaborate experiments on srutis (musical sounds) and human perception abilities. In parallel, ‘rasa’- the emotions evoked by certain srutis and hence the ragas been solidified along with the power of language in combination with the musical sounds. The Carnatic music branches out as Kalpita sangeetam (pre-composed music) and Manodharma sangeetam (improvised music). This article explores the Manodharma sangeetam and its subdivisions such as raga alapana, swara kalpana, neraval, and ragam-tanam-pallavi (RTP). The intrinsic mathematical strategies in it’s practice methods toward improvising the music have been explored in detail with concert examples. The techniques on swara weaving for swara kalpana rendering and methods on the alapana development are also discussed at length with an emphasis on the impact on the human cognitive abilities. The articulation of the outlined conscious practice methods not only helps to leave a long-lasting melodic impression on the listeners but also onsets cognitive developments.

Keywords: Carnatic, Manodharmam, music cognition, Alapana

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Authors: Scott Draper, Nat Benjanuvatra, Grant Landers, Terry Griffiths, Justin Geldard

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Open water swimming has been an Olympic sport since 2008 and is growing in popularity world-wide as a low impact form of exercise. Unlike pool swimming, open water swimmers experience a range of different environmental conditions, including surface waves, variable water temperature, aquatic life, and ocean currents. This presentation will describe experimental research to investigate how freestyle swimming behaviour and performance is influenced by surface waves. A group of 12 swimmers were instructed to swim freestyle in the 54 m long wave flume located at The University of Western Australia’s Coastal and Offshore Engineering Laboratory. A variety of different regular waves were simulated, varying in height (up to 0.3 m), period (1.25 – 4s), and direction (with or against the swimmer). Swimmer’s velocity and acceleration, respectively, were determined from video recording and inertial sensors attached to five different parts of the swimmer’s body. The results illustrate how the swimmers stroke rate and the wave encounter frequency influence their forward speed and how particular wave conditions can benefit or hinder performance. Comparisons to simplified mathematical models provide insight into several aspects of performance, including: (i) how much faster swimmers can travel when swimming with as opposed to against the waves, and (ii) why swimmers of lesser ability are expected to be affected proportionally more by waves than elite swimmers. These findings have implications across the spectrum from elite to ‘weekend’ swimmers, including how they are coached and their ability to win (or just successfully complete) iconic open water events such as the Rottnest Channel Swim held annually in Western Australia.

Keywords: open water, surface waves, wave height/length, wave flume, stroke rate

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Authors: Sunday Olufemi Adesogan

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The supply of potable water at least is a very important index in national development. Water tariffs depend on the treatment cost which carries the highest percentage of the total operation cost in any water supply scheme. In order to keep water tariffs as low as possible, treatment costs have to be minimized. The University of Ibadan, Nigeria, water supply scheme consists of a treatment plant with three distribution stations (Amina way, Kurumi and Lander) and two raw water supply sources (Awba dam and Eleyele dam). An operational study of the scheme was carried out to ascertain the efficiency of the supply of potable water on the campus to justify the need for water supply schemes in tertiary institutions. The study involved regular collection, processing and analysis of periodic operational data. Data collected include supply reading (water production on daily basis) and consumers metered reading for a period of 22 months (October 2013 - July 2015), and also collected, were the operating hours of both plants and human beings. Applying the required mathematical equations, total loss was determined for the distribution system, which was translated into monetary terms. Adequacies of the operational functions were also determined. The study revealed that water supply scheme is justified in tertiary institutions. It was also found that approximately 10.7 million Nigerian naira (N) is lost to leakages during the 22-month study period; the system’s storage capacity is no longer adequate, especially for peak water production. The capacity of the system as a whole is insufficient for the present university population and that the existing water supply system is not being operated in an optimal manner especially due to personnel, power and system ageing constraints.

Keywords: development, panacea, supply, water

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Authors: Narupot Putwattana

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Changes in global situation such as environmental and economic crisis brought the new perspective for science education called integrative biology. STEM has been increasingly mentioned for several educational researches as the approach which combines the concept in Science (S), Technology (T), Engineering (E) and Mathematics (M) to apply in teaching and learning process so as to strengthen the 21st-century skills such as creativity and critical thinking. Recent studies demonstrated STEM as the pedagogy which described the engineering process along with the science classroom activities. So far, pedagogical contents for STEM explaining the content in biology have been scarce. A qualitative literature review was conducted so as to gather the articles based on electronic databases (google scholar). STEM education, engineering design, teaching and learning of biology were used as main keywords to find out researches involving with the application of STEM in biology teaching and learning process. All articles were analyzed to obtain appropriate teaching and learning model that unify the core concept of biology. The synthesized model comprised of engineering design, inquiry-based learning, biological prototype and biologically-inspired design (BID). STEM content and context integration were used as the theoretical framework to create the integrative biology instructional model for STEM education. Several disciplines contents such as biology, engineering, and technology were regarded for inquiry-based learning to build biological prototype. Direct and indirect integrations were used to provide the knowledge into the biology related STEM strategy. Meanwhile, engineering design and BID showed the occupational context for engineer and biologist. Technological and mathematical aspects were required to be inspected in terms of co-teaching method. Lastly, other variables such as critical thinking and problem-solving skills should be more considered in the further researches.

Keywords: biomimicry, engineering approach, STEM education, teaching and learning model

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Authors: A. Clementking, C. Jothi Venkateswaran

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Mathematical and computational functionalities such as descriptive mining, optimization, and predictions are espoused to resolve natural resource planning. The water quality prediction and its attributes influence determinations are adopted optimization techniques. The water properties are tainted while merging water resource one with another. This work aimed to predict influencing water resource distribution connectivity in accordance to water quality and sediment using an innovative proposed master-slave neural network back-propagation model. The experiment results are arrived through collecting water quality attributes, computation of water quality index, design and development of neural network model to determine water quality and sediment, master–slave back propagation neural network back-propagation model to determine variations on water quality and sediment attributes between the water resources and the recommendation for connectivity. The homogeneous and parallel biochemical reactions are influences water quality and sediment while distributing water from one location to another. Therefore, an innovative master-slave neural network model [M (9:9:2)::S(9:9:2)] designed and developed to predict the attribute variations. The result of training dataset given as an input to master model and its maximum weights are assigned as an input to the slave model to predict the water quality. The developed master-slave model is predicted physicochemical attributes weight variations for 85 % to 90% of water quality as a target values.The sediment level variations also predicated from 0.01 to 0.05% of each water quality percentage. The model produced the significant variations on physiochemical attribute weights. According to the predicated experimental weight variation on training data set, effective recommendations are made to connect different resources.

Keywords: master-slave back propagation neural network model(MSBPNNM), water quality analysis, multivariate analysis, environmental mining

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Authors: Foo Shen Hwang, Thomas Confrey, Stephen Scully, Barry Flannery

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Thermal characterization plays an important role in battery pack design. Lithium-ion batteries have to be maintained between 15-35 °C to operate optimally. Heat is generated (Q) internally within the batteries during both the charging and discharging phases. This can be quantified using several standard methods. The most common method of calculating the batteries heat generation is through the addition of both the joule heating effects and the entropic changes across the battery. In addition, such values can be derived by identifying the open-circuit voltage (OCV), nominal voltage (V), operating current (I), battery temperature (T) and the rate of change of the open-circuit voltage in relation to temperature (dOCV/dT). This paper focuses on experimental characterization and comparative modelling of the heat generation rate (Q) across several current discharge rates (0.5C, 1C, and 1.5C) of a 18650 cell. The analysis is conducted utilizing several non-linear mathematical functions methods, including polynomial, exponential, and power models. Parameter fitting is carried out over the respective function orders; polynomial (n = 3~7), exponential (n = 2) and power function. The generated parameter fitting functions are then used as heat source functions in a 3-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver under natural convection conditions. Generated temperature profiles are analyzed for errors based on experimental discharge tests, conducted at standard room temperature (25°C). Initial experimental results display low deviation between both experimental and CFD temperature plots. As such, the heat generation function formulated could be easier utilized for larger battery applications than other methods available.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, curve fitting, lithium-ion battery, voltage drop

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Authors: Wern Lin Yeo, Choo Kim Tan, Sook Ling Lew

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Mathematics anxiety refers to the feeling of anxious when one having difficulties in solving mathematical problem. Mathematics anxiety is the most common type of anxiety among other types of anxiety which occurs among the students. However, level of anxiety among males and females are different. There were few past study were conducted to determine the relationship of anxiety and gender but there were still did not have an exact results. Hence, the purpose of this study is to determine the relationship of anxiety level between male and female undergraduates at a private university in Malaysia. Convenient sampling method used in this study in which the students were selected based on the grouping assigned by the faculty. There were 214 undergraduates who registered the probability courses had participated in this study. Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) was the instrument used in study which used to determine students’ anxiety level towards probability. Reliability and validity of instrument was done before the major study was conducted. In the major study, students were given briefing about the study conducted. Participation of this study were voluntary. Students were given consent form to determine whether they agree to participate in the study. Duration of two weeks were given for students to complete the given online questionnaire. The data collected will be analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) to determine the level of anxiety. There were three anxiety level, i.e., low, average and high. Students’ anxiety level were determined based on their scores obtained compared with the mean and standard deviation. If the scores obtained were below mean and standard deviation, the anxiety level was low. If the scores were at below and above the mean and between one standard deviation, the anxiety level was average. If the scores were above the mean and greater than one standard deviation, the anxiety level was high. Results showed that both of the gender were having average anxiety level. Males having high frequency of three anxiety level which were low, average and high anxiety level as compared to females. Hence, the mean values obtained for males (M = 3.62) was higher than females (M = 3.42). In order to be significant of anxiety level among the gender, the p-value should be less than .05. The p-value obtained in this study was .117. However, this value was greater than .05. Thus, there was no significant difference of anxiety level among the gender. In other words, there was no relationship of anxiety level with the gender.

Keywords: anxiety level, gender, mathematics anxiety, probability and statistics

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Authors: Shimaa Nagro, Russell Campion

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Mobile devices are becoming ever more widely available, with growing functionality, and are increasingly used as an enabling technology to give students access to educational material anytime and anywhere. However, the design of educational material user interfaces for mobile devices is beset by many unresolved research issues such as those arising from emphasising the information concepts then mapping this information to appropriate media (modelling information then mapping media effectively). This report describes a multimedia user interface design method for mobile learning. The method covers specification of user requirements and information architecture, media selection to represent the information content, design for directing attention to important information, and interaction design to enhance user engagement based on Human-Computer Interaction design strategies (HCI). The method will be evaluated by three different case studies to prove the method is suitable for application to different areas / applications, these are; an application to teach about major computer networking concepts, an application to deliver a history-based topic; (after these case studies have been completed, the method will be revised to remove deficiencies and then used to develop a third case study), an application to teach mathematical principles. At this point, the method will again be revised into its final format. A usability evaluation will be carried out to measure the usefulness and effectiveness of the method. The investigation will combine qualitative and quantitative methods, including interviews and questionnaires for data collection and three case studies for validating the MDMLM method. The researcher has successfully produced the method at this point which is now under validation and testing procedures. From this point forward in the report, the researcher will refer to the method using the MDMLM abbreviation which means Multimedia Design Mobile Learning Method.

Keywords: human-computer interaction, interface design, mobile learning, education

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Authors: Ana Maria Reis d'Azevedo Breda, Catarina Maria Neto da Cruz

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The role of images/illustrations in communicating meanings and triggering emotions assumes an increasingly relevant role in contemporary texts, regardless of the age group for which they are intended or the nature of the texts that host them. It is no coincidence that children's books are full of illustrations and that the image/text ratio decreases as the age group grows. The vast majority of children's books can be considered multimodal texts containing text and images/illustrations interacting with each other to provide the young reader with a broader and more creative understanding of the book's narrative. This interaction is very diverse, ranging from images/illustrations that are not essential for understanding the storytelling to those that contribute significantly to the meaning of the story. Usually, these books are also read by adults, namely by parents, educators, and teachers who act as mediators between the book and the children, explaining aspects that are or seem to be too complex for the child's context. It should be noted that there are books labeled as children's books that are clearly intended for both children and adults. In this work, following a qualitative and interpretative methodology based on written productions, participant observation, and field notes, we will describe the perceptions of future teachers of the 1st cycle of basic education, attending a master's degree at a Portuguese university, about the role of the image in literary and non-literary texts, namely in mathematical texts, and how these can constitute precious resources for emotional regulation and for the design of creative didactic situations. The analysis of the collected data allowed us to obtain evidence regarding the evolution of the participants' perception regarding the crucial role of images in children's literature, not only as an emotional regulator for young readers but also as a creative source for the design of meaningful didactical situations, crossing other scientific areas, other than the mother tongue, namely mathematics.

Keywords: children’s literature, emotions, multimodal texts, soft skills

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Authors: Priyanka Botny Srinath, Alessandro Suglia, Mel McKendrick

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Background: Organizational cultural studies integrate sociology and anthropology, portraying man as a creator of symbols, languages, beliefs, and ideologies -essentially, a creator and manager of meaning. In our research, we leverage analytical measures to discern whether an organization embodies a singular culture or a myriad of subcultures. Fast-forward to 2023, our research thesis focuses on digitally measuring culture, coining it as the "Work Culture Quotient." This entails conceptually mapping common experiential patterns to provide executives insights into the digital organization journey, aiding in understanding their current position and identifying future steps. Objectives: Finding the new age skills that help in defining the culture; understand the implications of post-COVID effects; derive a digital framework for measuring skillsets. Method: We conducted two comprehensive Delphi studies to distill essential insights. Delphi 1: Through a thematic analysis of interviews with 20 high-level leaders representing companies across diverse regions -India, Japan, the US, Canada, Morocco, and Uganda- we identified 20 key skills critical for cultivating a robust organizational culture. The skills are -influence, self-confidence, optimism, empathy, leadership, collaboration and cooperation, developing others, commitment, innovativeness, leveraging diversity, change management, team capabilities, self-control, digital communication, emotional awareness, team bonding, communication, problem solving, adaptability, and trustworthiness. Delphi 2: Subject matter experts were asked to complete a questionnaire derived from the thematic analysis in stage 1 to formalise themes and draw consensus amongst experts on the most important workplace skills. Results: The thematic analysis resulted in 20 workplace employee skills being identified. These skills were all included in the Delphi round 2 questionnaire. From the outputs, we analysed the data using R Studio for arriving at agreement and consensus, we also used sum of squares method to compare various agreements to extract various themes with a threshold of 80% agreements. This yielded three themes at over 80% agreement (leadership, collaboration and cooperation, communication) and three further themes at over 60% agreement (commitment, empathy, trustworthiness). From this, we selected five questionnaires to be included in the primary data collection phase, and these will be paired with the digital footprints to provide a workplace culture quotient. Implications: The findings from these studies bear profound implications for decision-makers, revolutionizing their comprehension of organizational culture. Tackling the challenge of mapping the digital organization journey involves innovative methodologies that probe not only external landscapes but also internal cultural dynamics. This holistic approach furnishes decision-makers with a nuanced understanding of their organizational culture and visualizes pivotal skills for employee growth. This clarity enables informed choices resonating with the organization's unique cultural fabric. Anticipated outcomes transcend mere individual cultural measurements, aligning with organizational goals to unveil a comprehensive view of culture, exposing artifacts and depth. Armed with this profound understanding, decision-makers gain tangible evidence for informed decision-making, strategically leveraging cultural strengths to cultivate an environment conducive to growth, innovation, and enduring success, ultimately leading to measurable outcomes.

Keywords: leadership, cooperation, collaboration, teamwork, work culture

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Authors: Evgeny Obraztsov, Ilya Kremnev, Vitaly Sokolov, Maksim Gavrilov, Evgeny Tretyakov, Vladimir Kukhtevich, Vladimir Bezlepkin

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Over the last decade, a specific set of connected software tools and calculation codes has been gradually developed. It allows simulating I&C systems, thermal-hydraulic, neutron-physical and electrical processes in elements and systems at the Unit of NPP (initially with WWER (pressurized water reactor)). In 2012 it was called a complex simulation suite “Virtual Unit of NPP” (or CSS “VEB” for short). Proper application of this complex tool should result in a complex coupled mathematical computational model. And for a specific design of NPP, it is called the Virtual Power Unit (or VPU for short). VPU can be used for comprehensive modelling of a power unit operation, checking operator's functions on a virtual main control room, and modelling complicated scenarios for normal modes and accidents. In addition, CSS “VEB” contains a combination of thermal hydraulic codes: the best-estimate (two-liquid) calculation codes KORSAR and CORTES and a homogenous calculation code TPP. So to analyze a specific technological system one can build thermal-hydraulic simulation models with different detalization levels up to a nodalization scheme with real geometry. And the result at some points is similar to the notion “engineering/testing simulator” described by the European utility requirements (EUR) for LWR nuclear power plants. The paper is dedicated to description of the tools mentioned above and an example of the application of the engineering thermal-hydraulic simulator in analysis of the boron acid concentration in the primary coolant (changed by the make-up and boron control system).

Keywords: best-estimate code, complex simulation suite, engineering simulator, power plant, thermal hydraulic, VEB, virtual power unit

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Authors: Francois Brambati, Daniele Ruscio, Federica Biassoni, Rebecca Hueting, Alessandra Tedeschi

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This research, in the frame of social acceptance of renewable energies and community-based production and consumption models, aims at (1) supporting a data-driven approachable to dealing with climate change and (2) identifying & quantifying the psycho-sociological dimensions and factors that could support the transition from a technology-driven approach to a consumer-driven approach throughout the emerging “prosumer business models.” In addition to the existing Social Acceptance dimensions, this research tries to identify a purely individual psychological fourth dimension to understand processes and factors underling individual acceptance and adoption of renewable energy business models, realizing a Prosumer Acceptance Index. Questionnaire data collection has been performed throughout an online survey platform, combining standardized and ad-hoc questions adapted for the research purposes. To identify the main factors (individual/social) influencing the relation with renewable energy technology (RET) adoption, a Factorial Analysis has been conducted to identify the latent variables that are related to each other, revealing 5 latent psychological factors: Factor 1. Concern about environmental issues: global environmental issues awareness, strong beliefs and pro-environmental attitudes rising concern on environmental issues. Factor 2. Interest in energy sharing: attentiveness to solutions for local community’s collective consumption, to reduce individual environmental impact, sustainably improve the local community, and sell extra energy to the general electricity grid. Factor 3. Concern on climate change: environmental issues consequences on climate change awareness, especially on a global scale level, developing pro-environmental attitudes on global climate change course and sensitivity about behaviours aimed at mitigating such human impact. Factor 4. Social influence: social support seeking from peers. With RET, advice from significant others is looked for internalizing common perceived social norms of the national/geographical region. Factor 5. Impact on bill cost: inclination to adopt a RET when economic incentives from the behaviour perception affect the decision-making process could result in less expensive or unvaried bills. Linear regression has been conducted to identify and quantify the factors that could better predict behavioural intention to become a prosumer. An overall scale measuring “acceptance of a renewable energy solution” was used as the dependent variable, allowing us to quantify the five factors that contribute to measuring: awareness of environmental issues and climate change; environmental attitudes; social influence; and environmental risk perception. Three variables can significantly measure and predict the scores of the “Acceptance in becoming a prosumer” ad hoc scale. Variable 1. Attitude: the agreement to specific environmental issues and global climate change issues of concerns and evaluations towards a behavioural intention. Variable 2. Economic incentive: the perceived behavioural control and its related environmental risk perception, in terms of perceived short-term benefits and long-term costs, both part of the decision-making process as expected outcomes of the behaviour itself. Variable 3. Age: despite fewer economic possibilities, younger adults seem to be more sensitive to environmental dimensions and issues as opposed to older adults. This research can facilitate policymakers and relevant stakeholders to better understand which relevant psycho-sociological factors are intervening in these processes and what and how specifically target when proposing change towards sustainable energy production and consumption.

Keywords: behavioural intention, environmental risk perception, prosumer, renewable energy technology, social acceptance

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Authors: Fatemeh Abbasi, Sahand Daneshvar

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Productivity is one of the essential goals of companies to improve performance, which as a strategy-oriented method, determines the basis of the company's economic growth. The history of productivity goes back centuries, but most researchers defined productivity as the relationship between a product and the factors used in production in the early twentieth century. Productivity as the optimal use of available resources means that "more output using less input" can increase companies' economic growth and prosperity capacity. Also, having a quality life based on economic progress depends on productivity growth in that society. Therefore, productivity is a national priority for any developed country. There are several methods for calculating productivity growth measurements that can be divided into parametric and non-parametric methods. Parametric methods rely on the existence of a function in their hypotheses, while non-parametric methods do not require a function based on empirical evidence. One of the most popular non-parametric methods is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which measures changes in productivity over time. The DEA evaluates the productivity of decision-making units (DMUs) based on mathematical models. This method uses multiple inputs and outputs to compare the productivity of similar DMUs such as banks, government agencies, companies, airports, Etc. Non-parametric methods are themselves divided into the frontier and non frontier approaches. The Malmquist productivity index (MPI) proposed by Caves, Christensen, and Diewert (1982), the Hicks–Moorsteen productivity index (HMPI) proposed by Bjurek (1996), or the Luenberger productivity indicator (LPI) proposed by Chambers (2002) are powerful tools for measuring productivity changes over time. This study will compare the Malmquist, Hicks–Moorsteen, and Luenberger indices theoretically and empirically based on DEA models and review their strengths and weaknesses.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, Hicks–Moorsteen productivity index, Leuenberger productivity indicator, malmquist productivity index

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Authors: H. M. N. L. Handagiripathira

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The distributions of naturally occurring and anthropogenic radioactive materials were determined in surface sediments taken at 27 different locations along the bank of Negombo Lagoon in Sri Lanka. Hydrographic parameters of lagoon water and the grain size analyses of the sediment samples were also carried out for this study. The conductivity of the adjacent water was varied from 13.6 mS/cm to 55.4 mS/cm near to the southern end and the northern end of the lagoon, respectively, and equally salinity levels varied from 7.2 psu to 32.1 psu. The average pH in the water was 7.6 and average water temperature was 28.7 °C. The grain size analysis emphasized the mass fractions of the samples as sand (60.9%), fine sand (30.6%) and fine silt+clay (1.3%) in the sampling locations. The surface sediment samples of wet weight, 1 kg each from upper 5-10 cm layer, were oven dried at 105 °C for 24 hours to get a constant weight, homogenized and sieved through a 2 mm sieve (IAEA technical series no. 295). The radioactivity concentrations were determined using gamma spectrometry technique. Ultra Low Background Broad Energy High Purity Ge Detector, BEGe (Model BE5030, Canberra) was used for radioactivity measurement with Canberra Industries' Laboratory Source-less Calibration Software (LabSOCS) mathematical efficiency calibration approach and Geometry composer software. The mean activity concentration was found to be 24 ± 4, 67 ± 9, 181 ± 10, 59 ± 8, 3.5 ± 0.4 and 0.47 ± 0.08 Bq/kg for 238U, 232Th, 40K, 210Pb, 235U and 137Cs respectively. The mean absorbed dose rate in air, radium equivalent activity, external hazard index, annual gonadal dose equivalent and annual effective dose equivalent were 60.8 nGy/h, 137.3 Bq/kg, 0.4, 425.3 mSv/year and 74.6 mSv/year, respectively. The results of this study will provide baseline information on the natural and artificial radioactive isotopes and environmental pollution associated with information on radiological risk.

Keywords: gamma spectrometry, lagoon, radioactivity, sediments

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Authors: Ramish, Farhan Khalique Awan

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Kinematic redundancy within the manipulators presents extended dexterity and manipulability to the manipulators. Redundant serial robotic manipulators are very popular in industries due to its competencies to keep away from singularities during normal operation and fault tolerance because of failure of one or more joints. Such fault tolerant manipulators are extraordinarily beneficial in applications where human interference for repair and overhaul is both impossible or tough; like in case of robotic arms for space programs, nuclear applications and so on. The design of this sort of fault tolerant serial 3 DoF manipulator is presented in this paper. This work was the extension of the author’s previous work of designing the simple 3R serial manipulator. This work is the realization of the previous design with optimizing the link lengths for incorporating the feature of fault tolerance. Various measures have been followed by the researchers to quantify the fault tolerance of such redundant manipulators. The fault tolerance in this work has been described in terms of the worst-case measure of relative manipulability that is, in fact, a local measure of optimization that works properly for certain configuration of the manipulators. An optimum fault tolerant Jacobian matrix has been determined first based on prescribed null space properties after which the link parameters have been described to meet the given Jacobian matrix. A solid model of the manipulator was then developed to realize the mathematically rigorous design. Further work was executed on determining the dynamic properties of the fault tolerant design and simulations of the movement for various trajectories have been carried out to evaluate the joint torques. The mathematical model of the system was derived via the Euler-Lagrange approach after which the same has been tested using the RoboAnalyzer© software. The results have been quite in agreement. From the CAD model and dynamic simulation data, the manipulator was fabricated in the workshop and Advanced Machining lab of NED University of Engineering and Technology.

Keywords: fault tolerant, Graham matrix, Jacobian, kinematics, Lagrange-Euler

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Authors: Kin On Kwok, Vivian Wei, Benjamin Cowling, Steven Riley, Jonathan Read

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Background: The role of social contact behavior measured in different contact constructs in the transmission of respiratory pathogens with acute respiratory illness (ARI) remains unclear. We, therefore, aim to depict the individual pattern of ARI in the community and investigate the association between different contact dimensions and ARI in Hong Kong. Methods: Between June 2013 and September 2013, 620 subjects participated in the last two waves of recruitment of the population based longitudinal phone social contact survey. Some of the subjects in this study are from the same household. They are also provided with the symptom diaries to self-report any acute respiratory illness related symptoms between the two days of phone recruitment. Data from 491 individuals who were not infected on the day of phone recruitment and returned the symptom diaries after the last phone recruitment were used for analysis. Results: After adjusting different follow-up periods among individuals, the overall incidence rate of ARI was 1.77 per 100 person-weeks. Over 75% ARI episodes involve running nose, cough, sore throat, which are followed by headache (55%), malagia (35%) and fever (18%). Using a generalized estimating equation framework accounting for the cluster effect of subjects living in the same household, we showed that both daily number of locations visited with contacts and the number of contacts, explained the ARI incidence rate better than only one single contact construct. Conclusion: Our result suggests that it is the intertwining property of contact quantity (number of contacts) and contact intensity (ratio of subject-to-contact) that governs the infection risk by a collective set of respiratory pathogens. Our results provide empirical evidence that multiple contact constructs should be incorporated in the mathematical transmission models to feature a more realistic dynamics of respiratory disease.

Keywords: acute respiratory illness, longitudinal study, social contact, symptom diaries

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Marija Vitanovа, Igor Gjorgjiev, Viktor Hristovski, Vlado Micov

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Evaluation of stability is very important in the process of definition of optimal structural measures for maintenance of bridge structures and their strengthening. To define optimal measures for their repair and strengthening, it is necessary to evaluate their static and seismic stability. Presented in this paper are methodologies for evaluation of the seismic stability of existing reinforced concrete bridges designed without consideration of seismic effects and checking of structural justification of newly designed bridge structures. All bridges are located in the territory of the Republic of North Macedonia. A total of 26 existing bridges of different structural systems have been analyzed. Visual inspection has been carried out for all bridges, along with the definition of three main damage categories according to which structures have been categorized in respect to the need for their repair and strengthening. Investigations involving testing the quality of the built-in materials have been carried out, and dynamic tests pointing to the dynamic characteristics of the structures have been conducted by use of non-destructive methods of ambient vibration measurements. The conclusions drawn from the performed measurements and tests have been used for the development of accurate mathematical models that have been analyzed for static and dynamic loads. Based on the geometrical characteristics of the cross-sections and the physical characteristics of the built-in materials, interaction diagrams have been constructed. These diagrams along with the obtained section quantities under seismic effects, have been used to obtain the bearing capacity of the cross-sections. The results obtained from the conducted analyses point to the need for the repair of certain structural parts of the bridge structures. They indicate that the stability of the superstructure elements is not critical during a seismic effect, unlike the elements of the sub-structure, whose strengthening is necessary.

Keywords: existing bridges, newly designed bridges, reinforced concrete bridges, stability assessment

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Authors: Himanshu Singh, Rishi Kant, Shantanu Bhattacharya

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This paper adopts a top-down approach for mathematical modeling to predict the size reduction from micro to nano-scale through persistent etching. The process is simulated using a finite difference approach. Previously, various researchers have simulated the etching process for 1-D and 2-D substrates. It consists of two processes: 1) Convection-Diffusion in the etchant domain; 2) Chemical reaction at the surface of the particle. Since the process requires analysis along moving boundary, partial differential equations involved cannot be solved using conventional methods. In 1-D, this problem is very similar to Stefan's problem of moving ice-water boundary. A fixed grid method using finite volume method is very popular for modelling of etching on a one and two dimensional substrate. Other popular approaches include moving grid method and level set method. In this method, finite difference method was used to discretize the spherical diffusion equation. Due to symmetrical distribution of etchant, the angular terms in the equation can be neglected. Concentration is assumed to be constant at the outer boundary. At the particle boundary, the concentration of the etchant is assumed to be zero since the rate of reaction is much faster than rate of diffusion. The rate of reaction is proportional to the velocity of the moving boundary of the particle. Modelling of the above reaction was carried out using Matlab. The initial particle size was taken to be 50 microns. The density, molecular weight and diffusion coefficient of the substrate were taken as 2.1 gm/cm3, 60 and 10-5 cm2/s respectively. The etch-rate was found to decline initially and it gradually became constant at 0.02µ/s (1.2µ/min). The concentration profile was plotted along with space at different time intervals. Initially, a sudden drop is observed at the particle boundary due to high-etch rate. This change becomes more gradual with time due to declination of etch rate.

Keywords: particle size reduction, micromixer, FDM modelling, wet etching

Procedia PDF Downloads 431

Authors: Paramvir Singh

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The locomotion of aquatic organisms has long fascinated biologists and engineers alike, with fish fins serving as a prime example of nature's remarkable adaptations for efficient underwater propulsion. This paper presents a comprehensive study focused on the hydrodynamic analysis of fish fin kinematics, employing an innovative approach that combines machine learning and image processing techniques. Through high-speed videography and advanced computational tools, we gain insights into the complex and dynamic motion of the fins of a Tilapia (Oreochromis Niloticus) fish. This study was initially done by experimentally capturing videos of the various motions of a Tilapia in a custom-made setup. Using deep learning and image processing on the videos, the motion of the Caudal and Pectoral fin was extracted. This motion included the fin configuration (i.e., the angle of deviation from the mean position) with respect to time. Numerical investigations for the flapping fins are then performed using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver. 3D models of the fins were created, mimicking the real-life geometry of the fins. Thrust Characteristics of separate fins (i.e., Caudal and Pectoral separately) and when the fins are together were studied. The relationship and the phase between caudal and pectoral fin motion were also discussed. The key objectives include mathematical modeling of the motion of a flapping fin at different naturally occurring frequencies and amplitudes. The interactions between both fins (caudal and pectoral) were also an area of keen interest. This work aims to improve on research that has been done in the past on similar topics. Also, these results can help in the better and more efficient design of the propulsion systems for biomimetic underwater vehicles that are used to study aquatic ecosystems, explore uncharted or challenging underwater regions, do ocean bed modeling, etc.

Keywords: biomimetics, fish fin kinematics, image processing, fish tracking, underwater vehicles

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Neslihan Şahin Çelik, Ali Eraslan

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In recent years, mathematics educators have frequently stressed the necessity of instructing students about models and modeling approaches that encompass cognitive and metacognitive thought processes, starting from the first years of school and continuing on through the years of higher education. The purpose of this study is to examine the thought processes of 4th-grade primary school students in their modeling activities and to explore the difficulties encountered in these processes, if any. The study, of qualitative design, was conducted in the 2015-2016 academic year at a public state-school located in a central city in the Black Sea Region of Turkey. A preliminary study was first implemented with designated 4th grade students, after which the criterion sampling method was used to select three students that would be recruited into the focus group. The focus group that was thus formed was asked to work on the model eliciting activity of the Paper Airplane Problem and the entire process was recorded on video. The Paper Airplane Problem required the students to determine the winner with respect to: (a) the plane that stays in the air for the longest time; (b) the plane that travels the greatest distance in a straight-line path; and (c) the overall winner for the contest. A written transcript was made of the video recording, after which the recording and the students' worksheets were analyzed using the Blum and Ferri modeling cycle. The results of the study revealed that the students tested the hypotheses related to daily life that they had set up, generated ideas of their own, verified their models by making connections with real life, and tried to make their models generalizable. On the other hand, the students had some difficulties in terms of their interpretation of the table of data and their ways of operating on the data during the modeling processes.

Keywords: primary school students, model eliciting activity, mathematical modeling, modeling process, paper airplane problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Rashi Rajput, Manisha Singh

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Escitalopram oxalate (ETP), an FDA approved antidepressant drug from the category of SSRI (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor) and is used in treatment of general anxiety disorder (GAD), major depressive disorder (MDD).When taken orally, it is metabolized to S-demethylcitalopram (S-DCT) and S-didemethylcitalopram (S-DDCT) in the liver with the help of enzymes CYP2C19, CYP3A4 and CYP2D6. Hence, causing side effects such as dizziness, fast or irregular heartbeat, headache, nausea etc. Therefore, targeted and sustained drug delivery will be a helpful tool for increasing its efficacy and reducing side effects. The present study is designed for formulating mucoadhesive nanoparticle formulation for the same Escitalopram loaded polymeric nanoparticles were prepared by ionic gelation method and characterization of the optimised formulation was done by zeta average particle size (93.63nm), zeta potential (-1.89mV), TEM (range of 60nm to 115nm) analysis also confirms nanometric size range of the drug loaded nanoparticles along with polydispersibility index of 0.117. In this research, we have studied the in vitro drug release profile for ETP nanoparticles, through a semi permeable dialysis membrane. The three important characteristics affecting the drug release behaviour were – particle size, ionic strength and morphology of the optimised nanoparticles. The data showed that on increasing the particle size of the drug loaded nanoparticles, the initial burst was reduced which was comparatively higher in drug. Whereas, the formulation with 1mg/ml chitosan in 1.5mg/ml tripolyphosphate solution showed steady release over the entire period of drug release. Then this data was further validated through mathematical modelling to establish the mechanism of drug release kinetics, which showed a typical linear diffusion profile in optimised ETP loaded nanoparticles.

Keywords: ionic gelation, mucoadhesive nanoparticle, semi-permeable dialysis membrane, zeta potential

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Shu-Yu Chung, Ying-Fang Wang, Shih-Min Wang

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To conduct long-term exposure assessments are important for workers exposed to chemicals with chronic effects. However, it usually encounters with several constrains, including cost, workers' willingness, and interference to work practice, etc., leading to inadequate long-term exposure data in the real world. In this study, an integrated approach was developed for conducting long-term exposure assessment for welding workers in a shipbuilding factory. A laboratory study was conducted to yield the fume generation rates under various operating conditions. The results and the measured environmental conditions were applied to the near field/far field (NF/FF) model for predicting long term fume exposures via the Monte Carlo simulation. Then, the predicted long-term concentrations were used to determine the prior distribution in Bayesian decision analysis (BDA). Finally, the resultant posterior distributions were used to assess the long-term exposure and serve as basis for initiating control strategies for shipbuilding workers. Results show that the NF/FF model was a suitable for predicting the exposures of metal contents containing in welding fume. The resultant posterior distributions could effectively assess the long-term exposures of shipbuilding welders. Welders' long-term Fe, Mn and Pb exposures were found with high possibilities to exceed the action level indicating preventive measures should be taken for reducing welders' exposures immediately. Though the resultant posterior distribution can only be regarded as the best solution based on the currently available predicting and monitoring data, the proposed integrated approach can be regarded as a possible solution for conducting long term exposure assessment in the field.

Keywords: Bayesian decision analysis, exposure assessment, near field and far field model, shipbuilding industry, welding fume

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Hong Li, Haiyang Yu, Shiqing Cheng, Nai Cao, Zhiliang Shi

Abstract:

Unconventional resources have gradually become the main direction for oil and gas exploration and development. However, the productivity of gas wells, the level of water production, and the seepage law in tight fractured gas reservoirs are very different. These are the reasons why production prediction is so difficult. Firstly, a three-dimensional multi-scale fracture and multiphase mathematical model based on an embedded discrete fracture model (EDFM) is established. And the material balance method is used to calculate the water body multiple according to the production performance characteristics of water-producing gas well. This will help construct a 'virtual water body'. Based on these, this paper presents a numerical simulation process that can adapt to different production modes of gas wells. The research results show that fractures have a double-sided effect. The positive side is that it can increase the initial production capacity, but the negative side is that it can connect to the water body, which will lead to the gas production drop and the water production rise both rapidly, showing a 'scissor-like' characteristic. It is worth noting that fractures with different angles have different abilities to connect with the water body. The higher the angle of gas well development, the earlier the water maybe break through. When the reservoir is a single layer, there may be a stable production period without water before the fractures connect with the water body. Once connected, a 'scissors shape' will appear. If the reservoir has multiple layers, the gas and water will produce at the same time. The above gas-water relationship can be matched with the gas well production date of the Xujiahe gas reservoir in the Sichuan Basin. This method is used to predict the productivity of a well with hydraulic fractures in this gas reservoir, and the prediction results are in agreement with on-site production data by more than 90%. It shows that this research idea has great potential in the productivity prediction of water-producing gas wells. Early prediction results are of great significance to guide the design of development plans.

Keywords: EDFM, multiphase, multilayer, water body

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Mitra Saberi, Saeideh Fakhari, Amir Karam, Ali Ahmadabadi

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Geomorphology is the scientific study of the characteristics of form and shape of the Earth's surface. The existence of types of landforms and their variation is mainly controlled by changes in the shape and position of land and topography. In fact, the interest and application of fractal issues in geomorphology is due to the fact that many geomorphic landforms have fractal structures and their formation and transformation can be explained by mathematical relations. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the fractal behavior of landforms of macro geomorphologic regions of Iran, as well as studying and analyzing topographic and landform characteristics based on fractal relationships. In this study, using the Iranian digital elevation model in the form of slopes, coefficients of deposition and alluvial fan, the fractal dimensions of the curves were calculated through the box counting method. The morphometric characteristics of the landforms and their fractal dimension were then calculated for 4criteria (height, slope, profile curvature and planimetric curvature) and indices (maximum, Average, standard deviation) using ArcMap software separately. After investigating their correlation with fractal dimension, two-way regression analysis was performed and the relationship between fractal dimension and morphometric characteristics of landforms was investigated. The results show that the fractal dimension in different pixels size of 30, 90 and 200m, topographic curves of different landform units of Iran including mountain, hill, plateau, plain of Iran, from1.06in alluvial fans to1.17in The mountains are different. Generally, for all pixels of different sizes, the fractal dimension is reduced from mountain to plain. The fractal dimension with the slope criterion and the standard deviation index has the highest correlation coefficient, with the curvature of the profile and the mean index has the lowest correlation coefficient, and as the pixels become larger, the correlation coefficient between the indices and the fractal dimension decreases.

Keywords: box counting method, fractal dimension, geomorphology, Iran, landform

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Authors: Rui Li, Min Wen, Kim Bang Salling

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For the modern railways, maintenance is critical for ensuring safety, train punctuality and overall capacity utilization. The cost of railway maintenance in Europe is high, on average between 30,000 – 100,000 Euros per kilometer per year. In order to reduce such maintenance expenditures, this paper presents a mixed 0-1 linear mathematical model designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballast track in the planning horizon of three to four years. The objective function is to minimize the tamping machine actual costs. The approach of the research is using the simple dynamic model for modelling condition-based tamping process and the solution method for finding optimal condition-based tamping schedule. Seven technical and practical aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality recovery on the track quality after tamping operation; (5) Tamping machine operation practices (6) tamping budgets and (7) differentiating the open track from the station sections. A Danish railway track between Odense and Fredericia with 42.6 km of length is applied for a time period of three and four years in the proposed maintenance model. The generated tamping schedule is reasonable and robust. Based on the result from the Danish railway corridor, the total costs can be reduced significantly (50%) than the previous model which is based on optimizing the number of tamping. The different maintenance strategies have been discussed in the paper. The analysis from the results obtained from the model also shows a longer period of predictive tamping planning has more optimal scheduling of maintenance actions than continuous short term preventive maintenance, namely yearly condition-based planning.

Keywords: integer programming, railway tamping, predictive maintenance model, preventive condition-based maintenance

Procedia PDF Downloads 442

Authors: Alakija Temitope Olufunmilayo, Akinyemi, Yagba Joy

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Hepatitis is the inflammation of the liver tissue that can cause whiteness of the eyes (Jaundice), lack of appetite, vomiting, tiredness, abdominal pain, diarrhea. Hepatitis is acute if it resolves within 6 months and chronic if it last longer than 6 months. Acute hepatitis can resolve on its own, lead to chronic hepatitis or rarely result in acute liver failure. Chronic hepatitis may lead to scarring of the liver (Cirrhosis), liver failure and liver cancer. Modelling Hepatitis B may become necessary in order to reduce its spread. So, dynamic SIR model can be used. This model consists of a system of three coupled non-linear ordinary differential equation which does not have an explicit formula solution. It is an epidemiological model used to predict the dynamics of infectious disease by categorizing the population into three possible compartments. In this study, a five-compartment dynamic model of Hepatitis B disease was proposed and developed by adding control measure of sensitizing the public called awareness. All the mathematical and statistical formulation of the model, especially the general equilibrium of the model, was derived, including the nonlinear least square estimators. The initial parameters of the model were derived using nonlinear least square embedded in R code. The result study shows that the proportion of Hepatitis B patient in the study population is 1.4 per 1,000,000 populations. The estimated Hepatitis B induced death rate is 0.0108, meaning that 1.08% of the infected individuals die of the disease. The reproduction number of Hepatitis B diseases in Nigeria is 6.0, meaning that one individual can infect more than 6.0 people. The effect of sensitizing the public on the basic reproduction number is significant as the reproduction number is reduced. The study therefore recommends that programme should be designed by government and non-governmental organization to sensitize the entire Nigeria population in order to reduce cases of Hepatitis B disease among the citizens.

Keywords: hepatitis B, modelling, non-linear ordinary differential equation, sihar model, sensitization

Procedia PDF Downloads 89