Search results for: seismic risk analysis

Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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The elastic period has a primary role in the seismic assessment of buildings. Reliable calculations and/or estimates of the fundamental frequency of a building and its site are essential during analysis and design process. Various code formulas based on empirical data are generally used to estimate the fundamental frequency of a structure. For existing structures, in addition to code formulas and available analytical tools such as modal analyses, various methods of testing including ambient and forced vibration testing procedures may be used to determine dynamic characteristics. In this study, the dynamic properties of the 32 buildings located in the Madinah of Saudi Arabia were identified using ambient motions recorded at several, spatially-distributed locations within each building. Ambient vibration measurements of buildings have been analyzed and the fundamental longitudinal and transverse periods for all tested buildings are presented. The fundamental mode of vibration has been compared in plots with codes formulae (Saudi Building Code, EC8, and UBC1997). The results indicate that measured periods of existing buildings are shorter than that given by most empirical code formulas. Recommendations are given based on the common design and construction practice in Madinah city.

Keywords: ambient vibration, fundamental period, RC buildings, infill walls

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Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

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Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: N. M. Sani, I. Bitrus, A. M. Sarki, N. S. Mujahid

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Hepatitis is one of the neglected infectious diseases in sub Saharan Africa, and most of the available data is based on blood donors. Health care workers (HCWs) often get infected as a result of their close contact with patients. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence of hepatitis B and C among this group of professionals with a view to improving the quality of care to their patients. Hepatitis B and C infections pose a major public health problem worldwide. While infection is highest in the developing world particularly Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, healthcare workers are at higher risk of acquiring blood-borne viral infections, particularly Hepatitis B and C which are mostly asymptomatic. This study was aimed at determining the prevalence of Hepatitis B and C infections and associated risk factors among health care workers in Dutse Metropolis, Jigawa State - Nigeria. A standard rapid immuno-chromatographic technique i.e. rapid ELISA was used to screen all sera for Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and Hepatitis C viral antibody (HCVAb) respectively. Strips containing coated antibodies and antigens to HBV and HCV respectively were removed from the foil. Strips were labeled according to samples. Using a separate disposable pipette, 2 drops of the sample (plasma) were added into each test strip and allowed to run across the absorbent pad. Results were read after 15 minutes. The prevalence of HBV and HCV infection in 100 healthcare workers was determined by testing the plasma collected from the clients during their normal checkup using HBsAg and HCVAb test strips. Results were subjected to statistical analysis using chi-square test. The prevalence of HBV among HCWs was 19 out of 100 (19.0%) and that of HCV was 5 out of 100 (5.0%) where in both cases, higher prevalence was observed among female nurses. It was also observed that all HCV positive cases were recorded among nurses only. The study revealed that nurses are at greater risk of contracting HBV and HCV due to their frequent contact with patients. It is therefore recommended that effective vaccination and other infection control measures be encouraged among healthcare workers.

Keywords: prevalence, hepatitis, viruses, healthcare workers, infection

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Authors: Anung Style Bukhori, Ani Dijah Rahajoe

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Poverty poses a significant challenge in Indonesia, requiring an effective analytical approach to understand and address this issue. In this research, we applied the Naïve Bayes classification method to examine and classify poverty data in Indonesia. The main focus is on classifying data using RapidMiner, a powerful data analysis platform. The analysis process involves data splitting to train and test the classification model. First, we collected and prepared a poverty dataset that includes various factors such as education, employment, and health..The experimental results indicate that the Naïve Bayes classification model can provide accurate predictions regarding the risk of poverty. The use of RapidMiner in the analysis process offers flexibility and efficiency in evaluating the model's performance. The classification produces several values to serve as the standard for classifying poverty data in Indonesia using Naive Bayes. The accuracy result obtained is 40.26%, with a moderate recall result of 35.94%, a high recall result of 63.16%, and a low recall result of 38.03%. The precision for the moderate class is 58.97%, for the high class is 17.39%, and for the low class is 58.70%. These results can be seen from the graph below.

Keywords: poverty, classification, naïve bayes, Indonesia

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Authors: Mohammad Mokhtari, Mehdi Masoodi, Parvaneh Faridi

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history of tsunami generating earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone provides evidence of the potential tsunami hazard for the whole coastal area. In comparison with other subduction zone in the world, the Makran region of southern Pakistan and southeastern Iran remains low seismicity. Also, it is one of the least studied area in the northwest of the Indian Ocean regarding tsunami studies. We present a review of studies dealing with the historical /and ongoing palaeotsunamis supported by IGCP of UNESCO in the Makran Subduction Zone. The historical tsunami presented here includes about nine tsunamis in the Makran Subduction Zone, of which over 7 tsunamis occur in the eastern Makran. Tsunami is not as common in the western Makran as in the eastern Makran, where a database of historical events exists. The historically well-documented event is related to the 1945 earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1moment magnitude and tsunami in the western and eastern Makran. There are no details as to whether a tsunami was generated by a seismic event before 1945 off western Makran. But several potentially large tsunamigenic events in the MSZ before 1945 occurred in 325 B.C., 1008, 1483, 1524, 1765, 1851, 1864, and 1897. Here we will present new findings from a historical point of view, immediately, we would like to emphasize that the area needs to be considered with higher research investigation. As mentioned above, a palaeotsunami (geological evidence) is now being planned, and here we will present the first phase result. From a risk point of view, the study shows as preliminary achievement within 20 minutes the wave reaches to Iranian as well Pakistan and Oman coastal zone with very much destructive tsunami waves capable of inundating destructive effect. It is important to note that all the coastal areas of all states surrounding the MSZ are being developed very rapidly, so any event would have a devastating effect on this region. Although several papers published about modelling, seismology, tsunami deposits in the last decades; as Makran is a forgotten subduction zone, more data such as the main crustal structure, fault location, and its related parameter are required.

Keywords: historical tsunami, Indian ocean, makran subduction zone, palaeotsunami

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Authors: Nabila Farhin, Israt Jahan

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Despite the feminisation of the global health force, women mostly engage in nursing, midwifery and community health workers (HWs), and the posts like surgeons, doctors, and specialists are generally male-dominated. It is also prominent in Bangladesh, where female HWs witness systematic workplace inequalities, discrimination, and underpayment. The Covid-19 pandemic put unsurmountable pressure on HWs as they had to serve in high-risk workplaces as frontliners. The already disadvantaged female HWs shouldered the same burden, were overworked without adequate occupational health and safety measures (OSH) and risked their lives. Acknowledging their vulnerable workplace conditions, the World Health Organization (WHO) and International Labour Organization (ILO) circulated a few specialised guidelines amid the peril. Bangladesh tried to adhere to international guidelines while formulating pandemic management strategies. In reality, the already weak and understaffed health sector collapsed with the patient influx and many HWs got infected and died in the line of duty, exposing the high-risk nature of the work. Unfortunately, the gender-segregated data of infected HWs are absent. This qualitative research investigates whether the existing laws of Bangladesh are adequate in protecting female HWs as frontliners in high-risk workplaces during the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper first examines international labour laws safeguarding female frontline HWs. It also analyses the specialised Covid-19 pandemic guidelines protecting their interests. Finally, the research investigates the compliance of Bangladesh as per international legal guidance during the pandemic. In doing so, it explores the domestic laws, professional guidelines for HWs and pandemic response strategies. The paper critically examines the primary sources like international and national statutes, rules, regulations and guidelines. Secondary sources like authoritative journal articles, books and newspaper reports are contextually analysed in line with the objective of the paper. The definition of HW is ambiguous in the labour laws of Bangladesh. It leads to confusion regarding the extent of legal protection rendered to female HWs at private hospitals in high-risk situations. The labour laws are not applicable in Public hospitals, as the employees follow the public service rules. Unfortunately, the country has no specialised law to protect HWs in high-risk workplaces, and the professional guidelines for HWs also remain inadequate in this regard. Even though the pandemic management strategies highlight some protective measures in high-risk situations, they only deal with HWs who are pregnant or have underlying health issues. No specialised protective guidelines can be found for female HWs as frontliners. Therefore, the laws are insufficient and failed to render adequate legal protection to female frontline HWs during the pandemic. The country also lacks comprehensive health legislation and uniform institutional and professional guidelines, preventing them from accessing grievance mechanisms. Hence, the female HWs felt victimised while duty-bound to serve in high-risk workplaces without adequate safeguards. Bangladesh should clarify the definition of HWs and standardise the service rules for providing medical care in high-risk workplaces. The research also recommends adequate health legislation and specialised legal protection to safeguard female HWs in future emergencies.

Keywords: female health workers (HWs), high-risk workplaces, Covid-19 pandemic, Bangladesh

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Authors: Eakarat Boonreang

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The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities did not participate in the natural disaster management. Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and information about the capacity building and the natural disaster management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be consist of 1)link operation and information in the natural disaster management between nation, province, local and community levels, 2)enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate to the natural disaster management, 3)establish proactive natural disaster management both planning and implementation, 4)decentralize the natural disaster management to local government organizations, 5)construct public awareness in the natural disaster management to community, 6)support Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7)emphasis on participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.

Keywords: capacity building, Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM), Natural Disaster Management, Thailand

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Authors: Jie Zhang, Chaomin Zhang, Jihua Zhang, Haitong Li

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Using the theory of optimal distinctiveness, this study examines the effects of conformity and differentiation within corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices on capital market performance. Analysing data from Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2022, this paper demonstrates that when firms conform to the expected scope of CSR, such behaviour enhances investor attention and market acceptance, thereby boosting stock liquidity. Conversely, emphasising differentiation in CSR practices more effectively mitigates stock price crash risk by addressing principal–agent problems and decreasing information asymmetry. This paper also investigates how organisational and environmental factors moderate the relationship between conformity and differentiation in CSR practices and their impact on capital market performance. The results also show that the influence of conformity on stock liquidity is accentuated in smaller firms and environments with stringent legal oversight. By contrast, the benefits of differentiation in reducing stock price crash risk are amplified in firms with robust corporate governance and markets characterised by high uncertainty.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, social responsibility practices, capital market performance, optimal distinctiveness

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Authors: Alejandro Arnaldo Barroso Martinez

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Unlike sex, which is constituted by anatomic-physiological differences, gender is a social construction. Our thoughts and behaviors as females and males are not etched in stone by our biology but rather from how society expects us to think and behave based on our sex assignment in the womb. Social expectations, values, and roles are taken on by individuals and shape the ways considered acceptable and linked to our bodies, feelings, and interpersonal relationships. Furthermore, these evolve into dire consequences for those who do not meet these disciplinary, economic, and cultural standards. Then, the social learning of gender identity implies the individual’s psychological sense of being, and it might be highly linked to a sense of life and suicide attempts. As a result, suicide has been considered a gender issue with differences in the rates and means used by men and women worldwide. Nevertheless, there has been a misunderstanding of the meaning of being male or female in a particular context and how it becomes a risk process for suicide attempts. For this reason, the general objective of the current research is to explain how this process occurs in Cuba. From a Critical Sociology and Social Psychology, a qualitative methodology was developed through six case studies and qualitative in-depth interviews. The analysis is focused on the sequence and interplay between two dimensions of meaning: signifiers and voices. Findings show that the risk process of suicide attempts in Cuba means some patriarchal beliefs and practices as part of informal educational models and some positivist practices in mental health attention. Findings also show that community relations create a sense of belonging, and it is a protection against suicide attempts in Cuba. Those frames of signifiers and voices explain in both males and females but differently when and how they are suffering from isolation, violence, the normalization of emotional awareness, and emotional distress expression. Suicide prevention programs should take gender learning into account as a cultural process.

Keywords: social constructions, gender identity, meanings, suicide attempt

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Authors: Sara Mouffouk, Fatma Belaid, Asma Hechani, Chaima Mouffouk

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Cancer of the cervix caused by HPV (human papillomavirus ) is for many years a real public health problem, it is ranked 2nd deadly female cancer kills more than 270 000 women each year worldwide. In Algeria, the mortality of cervical cancer decreases with the impact, but the prognosis of these cancers remains bleak: The 5-year relative survival is 60 %. The mode of transmission is usually sexuel. Our study was undertaken to show the link between HPV and cervical cancer and the importance of Pap smear screening in this type of pathology. On the total sample, 76.11 % showed abnormal cervical smears of which 13% have mild cases and hormonal reaction Change, and 44% represent inflammatory smears and normal cases 35%, while long seven years from 2005 to 2012. Thus, 43% of abnormal smear results between ASCUS, AGUS, low and high grade carcinoma and adenocarcinoma and 57 % of other cases of unknown origin. The average age of women at risk of developing adenocarcinoma is 45-50 with a 67% to 33% of the same risk in women of age group 41-45 years although the percentage of cases of HPV infected patients was 2% in the past seven years. We found that with increasing age, the risk is argued. Due to several factors such as multiparty can reduced the resistance of the uterine epithelium and even as the multi that promotes contamination HPV causes repeated infections with HPV.

Keywords: cervical cancer, human papillomavirus (HPV) screening, prevention, vaccines

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Authors: Badriah Alayidi, Emad Alyahya

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Background: Most people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) report worsening balance as the condition progresses. Poor balance control is also well known to be a significant risk factor for both falling and fear of falling. The increased risk of falls with disease progression thus makes balance control an essential target of gait rehabilitation amongst people with MS. Intervention programs have developed various methods to improve balance control, and accumulating evidence suggests that exercise programs may help people with MS improve their balance. Among these methods, virtual reality (VR) is growing in popularity as a balance-training technique owing to its potential benefits, including better compliance and greater user happiness. However, it is not clear if a VR environment will induce different balance control mechanisms in MS as compared to healthy individuals or traditional environments. Therefore, this study aims to examine how individuals with MS control their balance in a VR setting. Methodology: The proposed study takes an empirical approach to estimate and determine the role of balance response in persons with MS using a VR environment. It will use primary data collected through patient observations, physiological and biomechanical evaluation of balance, and data analysis. Results: The preliminary systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that there was variability in terms of the outcome assessing balance response in people with MS. The preliminary results of these assessments have the potential to provide essential indicators of the progression of MS and contribute to the individualization of treatment and evaluation of the interventions’ effectiveness. The literature describes patients who have had the opportunity to experiment in VR settings and then used what they have learned in the real world, suggesting that this VR setting could be more appealing than conditional settings. The findings of the proposed study will be beneficial in estimating and determining the effect of VR on balance control in persons with MS. In previous studies, VR was shown to be an interesting approach to neurological rehabilitation, but more data are needed to support this approach in MS. Conclusions: The proposed study enables an assessment of balance and evaluations of a variety of physiological implications related to neural activity as well as biomechanical implications related to movement analysis.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, virtual reality, postural control, balance

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Authors: Sima Majnooni

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This paper discusses the Green Climate Fund's environmental and social management framework (GCF). The environmental and social management framework ensures the accredited entity considers the GCF's accreditation standards and effectively implements each of the GCF-funded projects. The GCF requires all accredited entities to meet basic transparency and accountability standards as well as environmental and social safeguards (ESMS). In doing so, the accredited entity sets up different independent units. One of these units is called the Grievance Mechanism. When allegations of environmental and social harms are raised in association with GCF-funded activities, affected parties can contact the entity’s grievance unit. One of the most challenging things about the accredited entity's grievance unit is the lack of available information and resources on the entities' websites. Many AEs have anti-corruption or anti-money laundering unit, but they do not have the environmental and social unit for affected people. This paper will argue the effectiveness of environmental and social grievance mechanisms of AEs by using a qualitative approach to indicate how many of AEs have a poor or an effective GRM. Some ESMSs seem highly effective. On the other hand, other mechanisms lack basic requirements such as a clear, transparent, uniform procedure and a definitive timetable. We have looked at each AE mechanism not only in light of how the website goes into detail regarding the process of grievance mechanism but also in light of their risk category. Many mechanisms appear inadequate for the lower level risk category entities (C) and, even surprisingly, for many higher-risk categories (A). We found; in most cases, the grievance mechanism of AEs seems vague.

Keywords: grievance mechanism, vague environmental and social policies, green climate fund, international climate finance, lower and higher risk category

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Authors: Rangika Perera, Shyamani Hettiarachchi, Fran Hagstrom

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Dyslexia is the most common reading reading-related difficulty among the school school-aged population and currently, 5-10% are showing the features of dyslexia in Sri Lanka. As there is an insufficient number of speech and language pathologists in the country and few speech and language pathologists working in government mainstream school settings, these children who are at risk of dyslexia are not receiving enough quality early intervention services to develop their reading skills. As teachers are the key professionals who are directly working with these children, using them as the primary facilitators to improve their reading skills will be the most effective approach. This study aimed to identify the efficacy of a two and half a day of intensive training provided to fifteen mainstream government school teachers of grade two classes. The goal of the training was to enhance their knowledge of dyslexia and provide full classroom skills training that could be used to support the development of the students’ reading competencies. A closed closed-ended multiple choice questionnaire was given to these teachers pre and -post-training to measure teachers’ knowledge of dyslexia, the areas in which these children needed additional support, and the best strategies to facilitate reading competencies. The data revealed that the teachers’ knowledge in all areas was significantly poorer prior to the training and that there was a clear improvement in all areas after the training. The gain in target areas of teaching skills selected to improve the reading skills of children was evaluated through peer feedback. Teachers were assigned to three groups and expected to model how they were going to introduce the skills in recommended areas using researcher developed, validated and reliability reliability-tested materials and the strategies which were introduced during the training within the given tasks. Peers and the primary investigator rated teachers’ performances and gave feedback on organizational skills, presentation skills of materials, clarity of instruction, and appropriateness of vocabulary. After modifying their skills according to the feedback the teachers received, they were expected to modify and represent the same tasks to the group the following day. Their skills were re-evaluated by the peers and primary investigator using the same rubrics to measure the improvement. The findings revealed a significant improvement in their teaching skills development. The data analysis of both knowledge and skills gains of the teachers was carried out using quantitative descriptive data analysis. The overall findings of the study yielded promising results that support intensive training as a method for improving teachers’ knowledge and teaching skill development for use with children in a whole class intervention setting who are at risk of dyslexia.

Keywords: Dyslexia, knowledge, teaching skills, training program

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Authors: Julinda Keçi

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In many countries, governments have been promoting the involvement of private sector entities to enter into long-term agreements for the development and delivery of large infrastructure projects, with a focus on overcoming the limitations upon public fund of the traditional approach. The involvement of private sector through public-private partnerships (PPP) brings in new capital investments, value for money and additional risks to handle. Worldwide research studies have shown that an objective, systematic, reliable and user-oriented risk assessment process and an optimal allocation mechanism among different stakeholders is crucial to the successful completion. In this framework this paper, which is the first stage of a research study, aims to identify the main risks for the delivery of PPP projects. A review of cross-countries research projects and case studies was performed to map the key risks affecting PPP infrastructure delivery. The matrix of mapping offers a summary of the frequency of factors, clustered in eleven categories: Construction, Design, Economic, Legal, Market, Natural, Operation, Political, Project finance, Project selection and Relationship. Results will highlight the most critical risk factors, and will hopefully assist the project managers in directing the managerial attention in the further stages of risk allocation.

Keywords: construction, infrastructure, public private partnerships, risks

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Authors: E. Rama Devi Jothilingam

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Diabetes mellitus is now one of the most common non communicable diseases globally. India leads the world with largest number of diabetic subjects earning the title "diabetes capital of the world". In order to reduce the mortality rate, a fuzzy expert system is designed to predict the severity of cardiac and renal problems of diabetic patients using fuzzy logic. Since uncertainty is inherent in medicine, fuzzy logic is used in this research work to remove the inherent fuzziness of linguistic concepts and uncertain status in diabetes mellitus which is the prime cause for the cardiac arrest and renal failure. In this work, the controllable risk factors "blood sugar, insulin, ketones, lipids, obesity, blood pressure and protein/creatinine ratio" are considered as input parameters and the "the stages of cardiac" (SOC)" and the stages of renal" (SORD) are considered as the output parameters. The triangular membership functions are used to model the input and output parameters. The rule base is constructed for the proposed expert system based on the knowledge from the medical experts. Mamdani inference engine is used to infer the information based on the rule base to take major decision in diagnosis. Mean of maximum is used to get a non fuzzy control action that best represent possibility distribution of an inferred fuzzy control action. The proposed system also classifies the patients with high risk and low risk using fuzzy c means clustering techniques so that the patients with high risk are treated immediately. The system is validated with Matlab and is used as a tracking system with accuracy and robustness.

Keywords: Diabetes mellitus, fuzzy expert system, Mamdani, MATLAB

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Authors: Ahmed Sami Hammami, Mohamed Jellazi

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Background: The aim of the study is to evaluate the magnitude of different psychological outcomes among Tunisian health care professionals (HCP) during the COVID-19 pandemic and to identify the associated factors. Methods: HCP completed a cross-sectional questionnaire from April 4th to April, 28th 2020. The survey collected demographic information, factors that may interfere with the psychological outcomes, behavior changes and mental health measurements. The latter was assessed through 3 scales; the 7-item questions Insomnia Severity Index, the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire and the 2-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify factors associated with psychological outcomes. Results: A total of 503 HCP successfully completed the survey; among those, n=493 consented to enroll in the study, 411 [83.4%] were physicians, 323 [64.2%] were women and 271 [55%] had a second-line working position. A significant proportion of HCP had anxiety 35.7%, depression 35.1% and insomnia 23.7%. Females, those with psychiatric history and those using public transport exhibited the highest proportions for overall symptoms compared to other groups e.g., depression among females vs. males: 44,9% vs. 18,2%, P=0.00. Those with a previous medical history and nurses, had more anxiety and insomnia compared to other groups e.g. anxiety among nurses vs. interns/residents vs. attending 45,1% vs 36,1% vs 27,5%; p=0.04. Multivariable logistic regression showed that female gender was a risk factor for all psychological outcomes e.g. female sex increased the odds of anxiety by 2.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1, 78-4, 60; P=0.00, whereas having a psychiatric history was a risk factor for both anxiety and insomnia. (e.g. for insomnia OR=2,86; 95% [CI], 1,78-4,60; P=0.00), Having protective equipment was associated with lower risk for depression (OR=0,41; 95% CI, 0,27-0,62; P=0.00) and anxiety. Physical activity was also protective against depression and anxiety (OR=0,41, 95% CI, 0,25-0,67, P=0.00). Conclusion: Psychological symptoms are usually undervalued among HCP, though the COVID-19 pandemic played a major role in exacerbating this burden. Prompt psychological support should be endorsed and simple measures such as physical activity and ensuring the necessary protection are paramount to improve mental health outcomes and the quality of care provided to patients.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, health care professionals, mental health, protective factors, psychological symptoms, risk factors

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Authors: Julia Koralun-Bereźnicka, Ewa Majerowska

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This study explores the moderating role of firm size in shaping the financing policies of non-public firms across 12 European Union countries. The analysis targets private companies, offering new insights into an often-overlooked segment of the economy. Utilising a multi-country dataset spanning two decades (2000–2020), the research investigates how firm size interacts with key determinants of capital structure, including profitability, liquidity, asset tangibility, and risk, to influence debt composition and financing strategies. It incorporates a detailed analysis of different debt maturities, encompassing both short- and long-term debt structures. The findings indicate variations in financing patterns among small, medium, and large enterprises. Small firms are found to rely more heavily on short-term debt due to constrained access to long-term financing, whereas larger firms benefit from more diverse funding sources and lower perceived risk from creditors. Beyond its direct effects, firm size is shown to play a considerable indirect role by moderating the strength and direction of primary capital structure determinants. This approach highlights firm size not only as a primary determinant of capital structure but also as a secondary factor influencing financial decision-making. Employing advanced panel data modelling, the study emphasizes the importance of firm size in shaping financing strategies and the complex interactions between capital structure determinants. The findings provide insights into the financial behaviour of private firms and offer practical implications for improving access to capital and promoting financial stability across firm sizes.

Keywords: capital structure, panel data modelling, firm size effect, private companies

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Authors: Sarakorn Sukaviriya

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This paper describes the inspection procedure, root cause analysis, the rectification of crack, and how to apply the procedure with other similar plants. During the operation of the steam turbine (620MW), instruments such as speed sensor of steam turbine, the servo valve of main stop valve and electrical wires were malfunction caused by leakage steam from main steam governing valve. Therefore, the power plant decided to shutdown steam turbines for figuring out the cause of leakage steam. Inspection techniques to be applied in this problem were microstructure testing (SEM), pipe stress analysis (FEM) and non-destructive testing. The crack was initially found on main governing valve’s weldment by visual inspection. To analyze more precisely, pipe stress analysis and microstructure testing were applied and results indicated that the crack was intergranular and originated from the weld defect. This weld defect caused the notch with high-stress concentration which created crack and then propagated to steam leakage. The major root cause of this problem was an inappropriate welding process, which created a weld defect. To repair this joint from damage, we used a welding technique by producing refinement of coarse grain HAZ and eliminating stress concentration. After the weldment was completely repaired, other adjacent weldments still had risk. Hence, to prevent any future cracks, non-destructive testing (NDT) shall be applied to all joints in order to ensure that there will be no indication of crack.

Keywords: steam-pipe leakage, steam leakage, weld crack analysis, weld defect

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Authors: Briony Gray, Glenn Simpson, Hajira Dambha-Miller, Andrew Farmer

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Multimorbidity may be strongly affected by a variety of conditions, factors, and variables requiring higher demands on health and social care services, infrastructure, and expenses. Holding one or more conditions increases one’s risk for development of future conditions; with patients over 65 years old at highest risk. Psychosocial factors such as anxiety and depression are rising exponentially globally, which has been amplified by the COVID19 pandemic. These are highly correlated and predict poorer outcomes when held in coexistence and increase the likelihood of comorbid physical health conditions. While possible future reform of social and healthcare systems may help to alleviate some of these mounting pressures, there remains an urgent need to better understand the potential role health behaviours and psychosocial conditions - such as anxiety and depression – may have on aging populations. Using the UK healthcare scene as a lens for analysis, this study uses big data collected in the UK Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) to examine the role of anxiety and depression in ageing populations (65yrs+). Using logistic regression modelling, results identify the 10 most significant variables correlated with both anxiety and depression from data categorised into the areas of health behaviour, psychosocial, socioeconomic, and life satisfaction (each demonstrated through literature review to be of significance). These are compared with wider global research findings with the aim of better understanding the areas in which social and healthcare reform can support multimorbidity interventions, making suggestions for improved patient-centred care. Scope of future research is outlined, which includes analysis of 59 total multimorbidity variables from the ELSA dataset, going beyond anxiety and depression.

Keywords: multimorbidity, health behaviours, patient centred care, psychosocial factors

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Authors: Joseph Bertrand Iboum Kissaaka, Charles Fonyuy Ngum Tchioben, Paul Gustave Fowe Kwetche, Jeannette Ngo Elogan Ntem, Joseph Binyet Njebakal, Ribert Yvan Makosso-Tchapi, François Mvondo Owono, Marie Joseph Ntamak-Nida

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Located in the Gulf of Guinea, the Kribi-Campo sub-basin belongs to the Aptian salt basins along the West African Margin. In this paper, we investigated the tectono-stratigraphic architecture of the basin, focusing on the role of salt tectonics and strike-slip faults along the Kribi Fracture Zone with implications for reservoir prediction. Using 2D seismic data and well data interpreted through sequence stratigraphy with integrated seismic attributes analysis with Python Programming and unsupervised Machine Learning, at least six second-order sequences, indicating three main stages of tectono-stratigraphic evolution, were determined: pre-salt syn-rift, post-salt rift climax and post-rift stages. The pre-salt syn-rift stage with KTS1 tectonosequence (Barremian-Aptian) reveals a transform rifting along NE-SW transfer faults associated with N-S to NNE-SSW syn-rift longitudinal faults bounding a NW-SE half-graben filled with alluvial to lacustrine-fan delta deposits. The post-salt rift-climax stage (Lower to Upper Cretaceous) includes two second-order tectonosequences (KTS2 and KTS3) associated with the salt tectonics and Campo High uplift. During the rift-climax stage, the growth of salt diapirs developed syncline withdrawal basins filled by early forced regression, mid transgressive and late normal regressive systems tracts. The early rift climax underlines some fine-grained hangingwall fans or delta deposits and coarse-grained fans from the footwall of fault scarps. The post-rift stage (Paleogene to Neogene) contains at least three main tectonosequences KTS4, KTS5 and KTS6-7. The first one developed some turbiditic lobe complexes considered as mass transport complexes and feeder channel-lobe complexes cutting the unstable shelf edge of the Campo High. The last two developed submarine Channel Complexes associated with lobes towards the southern part and braided delta to tidal channels towards the northern part of the Kribi-Campo sub-basin. The reservoir distribution in the Kribi-Campo sub-basin reveals some channels, fan lobes reservoirs and stacked channels reaching up to the polygonal fault systems.

Keywords: tectono-stratigraphic architecture, Kribi-Campo sub-basin, machine learning, pre-salt sequences, post-salt sequences

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Authors: Larry O. Awo, George N. Duru

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There are growing public and mental health concerns over the availability of gambling platforms and shops in Nigeria and the high level of youth involvement in gambling. Early theorizing maintained that gambling involvement was driven by a quest for resource gains. However, evidence shows that the economic model of gambling tends to explain the involvement of the gambling business owners (sport lottery operators: SLOs) as most gamblers lose more than they win. This loss, according to the law of effect, ought to discourage decisions to gamble. However, the quest to recover losses has often initiated prolonged gambling sessions. Therefore, the need to investigate mental contemplations (such as counterfactual reasoning (upward versus downward) of what “would, should, or could” have been, and feeling of the illusion of control; IOC) over gambling outcomes as risk or protective factors in gambling decisions became pertinent. The present study sought to understand the differential contributions and conditional effects of upward versus downward counterfactual reasoning as pathways through which the association between IOC and gambling decisions of Nigerian youths (N = 120, mean age = 18.05, SD = 3.81) could be explained. The study adopted a randomized group design, and data were obtained by means of stimulus material (the Gambling Episode; GE) and self-report measures of IOC and Gambling Decision. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) result showed that participants in the upward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 22.08) differed from their colleagues in the downward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 17.33) on the decision to gamble, and this difference was significant [F(1,112) = 23, P < .01]. HAYES PROCESS macro moderation analysis results showed that 1) IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were positively associated with the decision to gamble (B = 14.21, t = 6.10, p < .01 and B = 7.22, t = 2.07, p <.05, respectively), 2) downward counterfactual reasoning was negatively associated with the decision to gamble more to recover losses (B = 10.03, t = 3.21, p < .01), 3) upward counterfactual reasoning did not moderate the association between IOC and gambling decision (p > .05), and 4) downward counterfactual reasoning negatively moderated the association between IOC and gambling decision (B = 07, t = 2.18, p < .05) such that the association was strong at the low level of downward counterfactual, but wane at high levels of downward counterfactual reasoning. The implication of these findings is that IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were risk factors and promoted gambling behavior, while downward counterfactual reasoning protects individuals from gambling activities. Thus, it is concluded that downward counterfactual reasoning strategies should be included in gambling therapy and treatment packages as it could diminish feelings of both IOC and negative feelings of missed positive outcomes and the urge to gamble.

Keywords: counterfactual reasoning, gambling cognition, gambling decision, Nigeria, youths

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Authors: Abul Shamsuddin

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The Islamic stock market indices are constructed by screening out stocks that are incompatible with Islam’s prohibition of interest and certain lines of business. This study examines the effects of Islamic screening on the risk-return characteristics of Islamic vis-a-vis mainstream equity portfolios. We use data on Dow Jones Islamic market indices and FTSE Global Islamic indices over 1993-2013. We observe that Islamic equity indices outperform their mainstream counterparts in both raw and risk-adjusted returns. In addition, Islamic equity indices are more resilient to turbulence in international markets than that of their mainstream counterparts. The findings are robust across a variety of portfolio performance measures.

Keywords: Dow Jones Islamic market index, FTSE global Islamic index, ethical investment, finance

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Authors: Hosein Almasikia

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Sarableh City is located in the west of Iran and in the seismic zone of Zagros. After the Azgole-Sarpol Zahab earthquake with a magnitude of 3.7 Richter on November 21, 2016, in some parts of Sarableh city, horrible sounds were heard by people. There is also a sound similar to the wear of the mill by some of the residents. Vibration studies and field investigations showed that these sounds have a geological origin and are emitted from the ground to the surface and may be related to geological hazards such as landslides, collapse of karstic zones, etc. In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the possible relationship between these abnormal sounds and geological hazards.

Keywords: Sarable, Zagros, landslide, karstic zone

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Authors: Louise Moles, Steve Riley, Sarah D. Lichenstein, Marzieh Babaeianjelodar, Robert Kohler, Annie Cheng, Corey Horien Abigail Greene, Wenjing Luo, Jonathan Ahern, Bohan Xu, Yize Zhao, Chun Chieh Fan, R. Todd Constable, Sarah W. Yip

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Background: Risks for depression are myriad and include both genetic and brain-based factors. However, relationships between these systems are poorly understood, limiting understanding of disease etiology, particularly at the developmental level. Methods: We use a data-driven machine learning approach connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) to identify functional connectivity signatures associated with polygenic risk scores for depression (DEP-PRS) among youth from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) study across diverse brain states, i.e., during resting state, during affective working memory, during response inhibition, during reward processing. Results: Using 10-fold cross-validation with 100 iterations and permutation testing, CPM identified connectivity signatures of DEP-PRS across all examined brain states (rho’s=0.20-0.27, p’s<.001). Across brain states, DEP-PRS was positively predicted by increased connectivity between frontoparietal and salience networks, increased motor-sensory network connectivity, decreased salience to subcortical connectivity, and decreased subcortical to motor-sensory connectivity. Subsampling analyses demonstrated that model accuracies were robust across random subsamples of N’s=1,000, N’s=500, and N’s=250 but became unstable at N’s=100. Conclusions: These data, for the first time, identify neural networks of polygenic depression risk in a large sample of youth before the onset of significant clinical impairment. Identified networks may be considered potential treatment targets or vulnerability markers for depression risk.

Keywords: genetics, functional connectivity, pre-adolescents, depression

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Authors: Aschenaki Zerihun Kea, Bernt Lindtjorn, Achamyelesh Gebretsadik, Sven Gudmund Hinderaker

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Introduction: Maternal mortality studies conducted at the national level do not provide the information needed for planning and monitoring health programs at lower administrative levels. The aim of this study was to measure maternal mortality, identify risk factors and district-level variations in Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia. Methods: A cross sectional population-based survey was carried out in households where women reported pregnancy and birth outcomes in the past five years. The study was conducted in the Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia, from July 2019 to May 2020. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was employed. The outcome variable of the study was maternal mortality. Complex sample logistic regression analysis was applied to assess variables independently associated with maternal mortality. Results: We registered 10602 live births (LB) and 48 maternal deaths, yielding an overall maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 419; 95% CI: 260-577 per 100,000 LB. Aroresa district had the highest MMR with 1142 (95% CI: 693-1591) per 100,000 LB. Leading causes of death were haemorrhage 21 (41%) and eclampsia 10 (27%). Thirty (59%) mothers died during labour, or within 24 hours after delivery, 25 (47%) died at home and 17 (38%) at a health facility. Mothers who did not have formal education had a higher risk of maternal death (AOR: 4.4; 95% CI: 1.7 – 11.0). The risk of maternal death was higher in districts with a low midwife-to-population ratio (AOR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.0-8.9). Conclusion: The high maternal mortality with district-level variations in Sidama Region highlights the importance of improving obstetric care and employing targeted interventions in areas with high mortality rates. Due attention should be given to improving access to female education. Additional midwives have to be trained and deployed to improve maternal health services and consequently save the lives of mothers.

Keywords: maternal mortality variation, maternal death, Sidama, Ethiopia

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Authors: Ashutosh Saxena, Kumar Pallav, Ramji Dwivedi

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The present study estimates the seismicity parameter 'b' and maximum possible magnitude of an earthquake (Mmax) for Gujarat region with three well-established methods viz. Kijiko parametric model (KP), Kijiko-Sellevol-Bayern (KSB) and Tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR), as a combined seismic source regime. The earthquake catalogue is prepared for a period of 1330 to 2013 in the region Latitudes 20o N to 250 N and Longitudinally extending from 680 to 750 E for earthquake moment magnitude (Mw) ≥4.0. The ’a’ and 'b' value estimated for the region as 4.68 and 0.58. Further, Mmax estimated as 8.54 (± 0.29), 8.69 (± 0.48), and 8.12 with KP, KSB, and TGR, respectively.

Keywords: Mmax, seismicity parameter, Gujarat, Tapered Gutenberg-Richter

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Authors: Zahra Tolou-Ghamari

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Introduction: After allogeneic organ transplantation, in order to lower the rate of rejectiontacrolimus is given. In fact, infection is reported as the most complication of tacrolimus that might be associated with higher susceptibility by its’ long term use. Aim: This study aims to review the association between the occurrence of infections after organ transplantation following the administration of tacrolims. Materials and Methods: Scientific literature on the pharmacotherapy of tacrolimus after organ transplantation and infections were searched using PUBMED.Gov (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/), Web of Science, and Scopus. Results: In order to prevent acute and chronic rejection, the potent immunosuppressive drug tacrolimus administered as a calcineurin inhibitor after organ transplantation. Its’ most frequent infectious complication is reported as urinary tract infection. Virulent strain of recombinant Literiamonocytogenes, in addition to an increase in bacterial burden in the liver and spleen tissues, was reported in the animal experimental study. The consequence of aggressive events and recipients total area under the cureve exposure to immunosuppressive could be as considered as surrogate markers for individual infection’s risk evaluation. Conclusion: Transplant surgery and duration of hospital stay could determinate the risk of infection during the first month of organ transplantation. Despite administration of antiviral drugs, opportunistic infection such as cytomegalovirus could increase the risk of infection during month 1 to year after transplantation.

Keywords: transplant, infection, tacrolimus, kidney

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Authors: Rebecca A. Deek

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There is evidence that erratic and extreme weather is becoming a common occurrence, and even predictions that this will become even more frequent and more severe. It also appears that the severity of earthquakes is intensifying. Some observers believe that human conduct has given reasons for such change; others attribute this to environmental and geological cycles. However, as some physicists, environmental scientists, politicians, and others continue to debate the connection between weather events, seismic activities, and climate change, other scientists, engineers, and urban planners are exploring how can our habitat become more responsive and resilient to such phenomena. There are a number of recent instances of nature’s destructive events that provide basis for the development of defensive measures.

Keywords: biomimicry, natural disasters, protection of human lives, resilient infrastructures

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Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Marília Antunes, Maria J. Alves, Hugo Osório, Sofia Cunha, João Casaca

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Using a geographic information system (GIS), the relations between a georeferenced data set of Culex pipiens sl. mosquitoes collected in Portugal mainland during seven years (2006-2012) and meteorological and physiographic parameters such as: air relative humidity, air temperature (minima, maxima and mean daily temperatures), daily total rainfall, altitude, land use/land cover and proximity to water bodies are evaluated. Focus is on the mosquito females; the characterization of its habitat is the key for the planning of chirurgical non-aggressive prophylactic countermeasures to avoid ambient degradation. The GIS allow for the spatial determination of the zones were the mosquito mean captures has been above average; using the meteorological values at these coordinates, the limits of each parameter are identified/computed. The meteorological parameters measured at the net of weather stations all over the country are averaged by month and interpolated to produce raster maps that can be segmented according to the thresholds obtained for each parameter. The intersection of the maps obtained for each month show the evolution of the area favorable to the species through the mosquito season, which is from May to October at these latitudes. In parallel, mean and above average captures were related to the physiographic parameters. Three levels of risk could be identified for each parameter, using above average captures as an index. The results were applied to the suitability meteorological maps of each month. The Culex pipiens critical niche is delimited, reflecting the critical areas and the level of risk for transmission of the pathogens to which they are competent vectors (West Nile virus, iridoviruses, rheoviruses and parvoviruses).

Keywords: Culex pipiens, ecological niche, risk assessment, risk management

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