Search results for: glomerular filtration rate
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8308

Search results for: glomerular filtration rate

6238 A Cros Sectional Observational Study of Prescription Pattern of Gastro-Protective Drugs with Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs in Nilgiris, India

Authors: B.S. Roopa

Abstract:

Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of concomitant use of GPDs in patients treated with NSAIDs and GPDs in recommended dose and frequency as prophylaxis. And also to know the association between risk factors and prescription of GPDs in patients treated with NSAIDs. Methods: Study was a prospective, observational, cross-sectional survey. Data from patients with prescription of NSAIDs at the out-patient departments of secondary care Hospital, Nilgiris, India were collected in a specially designed proforma for a period of 45 days. Analysis using χ2 tests for discrete variables. Factors that might be associated with prescription of GPD with NSIADs were assessed in multiple logistic regression models. Results: Three hundred and three patients were included in this study, and the rate of GPD prescription was 89.1%. Most of the patients received H2-receptor antagonist, and, to a lesser degree, antacid and proton pump inhibitor. Patients with history of GI ulcer/bleeding were much more likely to be co-prescribed GPD than those who had no history of GI disorders .Compared with patients who were managed in general outpatient clinic, those managed in Secondary care hospital in Nilgrisis, India were more likely to receive GPD. Conclusions: The prescription rate of GPD with NSAIDs is high. Patients were prescribed with H2RA with dose of 150mg twice daily, which are not effective in reducing the risk of NSAIDs induced gastric ulcer. Only the frequency of NSAIDs prescription was considered significant determinant for the co-prescription with GPAs in patients who are < 65 years and ≥ 65 years old.

Keywords: gastro protective agents, non steridol anti inlfammatory agents

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6237 Assessment of Tidal Current Energy Potential at LAMU and Mombasa in Kenya

Authors: Lucy Patricia Onundo, Wilfred Njoroge Mwema

Abstract:

The tidal power potential available for electricity generation from Mombasa and Lamu sites in Kenya will be examined. Several African countries in the Western Indian Ocean endure insufficiencies in the power sector, including both generation and distribution. One important step towards increasing energy security and availability is to intensify the use of renewable energy sources. The access to cost-efficient hydropower is low in Mombasa and Lamu hence Ocean energy will play an important role. Global-Level resource assessments and oceanographic literature and data have been compiled in an analysis between technology-specific requirements for ocean energy technologies (salinity, tide, tidal current, wave, Ocean thermal energy conversion, wind and solar) and the physical resources in Lamu and Mombasa. The potential for tide and tidal current power is more restricted but may be of interest at some locations. The theoretical maximum power produced over a tidal cycle is determined by the product of the forcing tide and the undisturbed volumetric flow-rate. The extraction of the maximum power reduces the flow-rate, but a significant portion of the maximum power can be extracted with little change to the tidal dynamics. Two-dimensional finite-element, numerical simulations designed and developed agree with the theory. Temporal variations in resource intensity, as well as the differences between small-scale and large-scale applications, are considered.

Keywords: energy assessment, marine tidal power, renewable energy, tidal dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 577
6236 Bulking Rate of Cassava Genotypes and Their Root Yield Relationship at Guinea Savannah and Forest Transition Agroecological Zone of Nigeria

Authors: Olusegun D. Badewa, E. K. Tsado, A. S. Gana, K. D. Tolorunse, R. U. Okechukwu, P. Iluebbey, S. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Farmers are faced with varying production challenges ranging from unstable weather due to climate change, low yield, malnutrition, cattle invasion, and bush fires that have always affected their livelihood. Research effort must therefore be centered on improving farmers’ livelihood, nutrition, and health by providing early bulking biofortified cassava varieties that could be harvested earlier with reasonable root yield and thereby preventing long stay of the crop on their farmland. This study evaluated cassava genotypes at different harvesting months of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after planting in order to evaluate their bulking rate at different agroecology of Mokwa and Ubiaja. Data were collected on fresh storage root yield, Harvest index, and Dry matter content. It was shown from the study that traits FSRY, HI, and DM were significant for genotype and months after planting and variable among the genotype while location had no effect on the yield traits. Early bulking genotypes were not high yielding and showed discontinuity at some point across the months. The retrogression in yield performance across months had no effect on the highest yielding. Also, for all the genotypes and across evaluated months, FSRY reduces at 9 MAP due to a reduction in dry matter content during the same month, and the best performing genotype was the genotype IBA90581, followed by IBA120036, IBA130896, and IBA980581 while the least performing was genotype IBA130818.

Keywords: early bulking, dry mater, harvest index, high yielding, root yield

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6235 Integrated Farming Barns as a Strategy for National Food Security

Authors: Ilma Ulfatul Janah, Ibnu Rizky Briwantara, Muhammad Afif

Abstract:

The agricultural sector is one of the sectors that contribute to national development. The benefit of the agricultural sector can be felt directly by the majority of Indonesian people. Indonesia is one of the agricultural countries and most of the people working in the agricultural sector. Hence, the agricultural sector’s become the second sector which has contributed greatly to the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) after the manufacture sector. Based on the National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) from 2015 to 2019, one of the targets to be achieved by the Indonesian government is rice’s self-sufficient. Rice is the main food commodities which as most people in Indonesia, and it is making Indonesian government attempt self-sufficient in rice. Indonesia as an agricultural country becomes one of the countries that have a lower percentage of food security than other ASEAN countries. Rice self-sufficiency can be created through agricultural productivity and the availability of a market for the output. There are some problems still to be faced by the farmers such as farmer exchange rate is low. The low exchange rate of farmers showed that the level of the welfare’s Indonesian farmers is still low. The aims of this paper are to resolve problems related to food security and improve the welfare of the national rice farmers. The method by using materials obtained from the analysis of secondary data with the descriptive approach and conceptual framework. Integrated Farmers barn raising rice production is integrated and managed by the government coupled with the implementation of technology in the form of systems connected and accessible to farmers, namely 'SIBUNGTAN'.

Keywords: agriculture, self-sufficiency, technology, productivity

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6234 In and Out-Of-Sample Performance of Non Simmetric Models in International Price Differential Forecasting in a Commodity Country Framework

Authors: Nicola Rubino

Abstract:

This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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6233 Hybrid Equity Warrants Pricing Formulation under Stochastic Dynamics

Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim

Abstract:

A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic

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6232 Non-Invasive Techniques for Management of Carious Primary Dentition Using Silver Diamine Fluoride and Moringa Extract as a Modification of the Hall Technique

Authors: Rasha F. Sharaf

Abstract:

Treatment of dental caries in young children is considered a great challenge for all dentists, especially with uncooperative children. Recently non-invasive techniques have been highlighted as they alleviate the need for local anesthesia and other painful procedures during management of carious teeth and, at the same time, increase the success rate of the treatment done. Silver Diamine Fluoride (SDF) is one of the most effective cariostatic materials that arrest the progression of carious lesions and aid in remineralizing the demineralized tooth structure. Both fluoride and silver ions proved to have an antibacterial action and aid in the precipitation of an insoluble layer that prevents further decay. At the same time, Moringa proved to have an effective antibacterial action against different types of bacteria, therefore, it can be used as a non-invasive technique for the management of caries in children. One of the important theories for the control of caries is by depriving the cariogenic bacteria from nutrients causing their starvation and death, which can be achieved by applying stainless steel crown on primary molars with carious lesions which are not involving the pulp, and this technique is known as Hall technique. The success rate of the Hall technique can be increased by arresting the carious lesion using either SDF or Moringa and gaining the benefit of their antibacterial action. Multiple clinical cases with 1 year follow up will be presented, comparing different treatment options, and using various materials and techniques for non-invasive and non-painful management of carious primary teeth.

Keywords: SDF, hall technique, carious primary teeth, moringa extract

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6231 Effect of High Intensity Interval Training and Moderate Interval Continuous Training on Cardiovascular Endurance In young Healthy Female

Authors: Sidra Majeed, Irum Ali, Aroosa Ishfaq, Munazzah Parveen

Abstract:

Objectives: The objective is to compare the effects of high-intensity interval training VS moderate moderate-intensity continuous training on cardiovascular endurance in young healthy females. Method: 30 young, healthy females were collected and randomly assigned into two training groups, HIIT and MICT, each group having a sample size of (n=15). There will be three parameters to be tested, including (VO2max, Resting heart rate, and Rate perceived exertion). Each group will be tested at three different times, e.g. (at Baseline measurement, after two weeks and after four weeks). For the first two weeks, the HIIT group has to perform at 70%HRR and for the third and fourth weeks, at 75%HRR for two minutes, followed by an active resting interval at 30%HRR for two minutes (1:1) with warm-up and cool-down period (2 minutes each period ) on the treadmill. For the first two weeks, the MICT group has to perform at 40%HRR and for the third and fourth weeks at 50% HRR for fifteen minutes continuously on the treadmill, including warm up and cool down period (2 minutes each period). Result: The final assessment of HIIT and MICT groups had shown p values for VO2max (p=.000), RHR (p=.323) and for RPE (p=.085). These values indicating significant improvement in these three parameters in both groups. Conclusion: This study showed that there were significant improvements in both groups but there were more improvements in VO2max in HIIT group so, it is proved that HIIT is more beneficial than MICT in improving cardiovascular endurance.

Keywords: HIIT, MICT, RPE, RHR

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6230 The Determinants of Female Participation to the Labour Force in Turkey

Authors: Zeynep Karacor, Rahime Hulya Ozturk

Abstract:

Located in developing countries but with the successful performance in recent years have shown in emerging economies , the labor factor has undoubtedly an important place in Turkish economy. The theorists have emphasized the importance of labor and human capital factors for many years. The importance of human capital is emerging in the process of determining the labor force participation rate. It is relatively easy to employ qualified labor force but employment of unskilled labor is particularly difficult. Another factor affecting the gender differences are employment opportunities in the labor force. In our country, the employment conditions of men and women differ. Factors causing these differentials are inherent job requirements, the social structure of society, women's point of view, working hours, working conditions. Crisis in our country in recent years have significantly affect the labor force participation rates. In particular, women's labor force participation rates have shown a decrease in crisis.In crisis female laborforce leave their job and go their home. It is the sole provider of social perception of men so in crisis period it is considered that woman lost their job. In the first part of this study the current situation in the world of female participation in the labor force in Turkey will examine. In the second part of the study literature will be examined. In the third and last part of the study factors of determinants of female labor force participation rate analysis will done by Granger Causality Analysis.

Keywords: female labour force, employment, labor force, Turkey

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6229 Production of Pour Point Depressant for Paraffinic Crude Oils

Authors: Mosaad Attia Elkasaby

Abstract:

The crude oil contains paraffines, aromatics, and asphaltenes in addition to some organic impurities, with increasing demands to reduce the cost of crude oil production, the uses of a pour point depressant is mandatory to maintain good flow rate. The wax materials cause many problems during production, storage, and transport, especially at low temperature, as these waxes tend, at low temperatures, to precipitate on the wall lines, thus leads to the high viscosity of crude oil and impede the flow rate, which represents an additional burden for crude oil pumping system from the place of production to the refinery. There are many ways to solve this problem, including, but not limited to, heat the crude and the use of organic solvents. But one of the most important disadvantages of these methods is the high economic cost. The aim of this innovation is to manufacture some polymeric materials (polymers based on aniline) that are processed locally that can be used as a pour point depressant of crude oil. For the first time, polymer based on aniline is modified and used with a number of organic solvents and tested with solvent (Styrene). It was found that the polymer based on aniline, when modified, had full solubility in styrene, unlike other organic solvent that was used in the past, such as chloroform and toluene. We also used a new solvent (PONA) that is obtained from the process of hydrotreating and separation of straight run naphtha to dissolve polymer based on aniline as a pour point depressant of crude oil. This innovative include studies conducted on highly paraffinic crude oil (C.O.1 and C.O.2). On using concentration (2500 ppm) of polymer based on aniline, the pour point of crude oil has decreased from +33 to - 9°C in case of crude oil (C.O.1) and from + 42 to – 6°C in case crude oil (C.O.2) at the same concentration.

Keywords: PPD, aniline, paraffinic crude oils, polymers

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6228 Computer Countenanced Diagnosis of Skin Nodule Detection and Histogram Augmentation: Extracting System for Skin Cancer

Authors: S. Zith Dey Babu, S. Kour, S. Verma, C. Verma, V. Pathania, A. Agrawal, V. Chaudhary, A. Manoj Puthur, R. Goyal, A. Pal, T. Danti Dey, A. Kumar, K. Wadhwa, O. Ved

Abstract:

Background: Skin cancer is now is the buzzing button in the field of medical science. The cyst's pandemic is drastically calibrating the body and well-being of the global village. Methods: The extracted image of the skin tumor cannot be used in one way for diagnosis. The stored image contains anarchies like the center. This approach will locate the forepart of an extracted appearance of skin. Partitioning image models has been presented to sort out the disturbance in the picture. Results: After completing partitioning, feature extraction has been formed by using genetic algorithm and finally, classification can be performed between the trained and test data to evaluate a large scale of an image that helps the doctors for the right prediction. To bring the improvisation of the existing system, we have set our objectives with an analysis. The efficiency of the natural selection process and the enriching histogram is essential in that respect. To reduce the false-positive rate or output, GA is performed with its accuracy. Conclusions: The objective of this task is to bring improvisation of effectiveness. GA is accomplishing its task with perfection to bring down the invalid-positive rate or outcome. The paper's mergeable portion conflicts with the composition of deep learning and medical image processing, which provides superior accuracy. Proportional types of handling create the reusability without any errors.

Keywords: computer-aided system, detection, image segmentation, morphology

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6227 Global Developmental Delay and Its Association with Risk Factors: Validation by Structural Equation Modelling

Authors: Bavneet Kaur Sidhu, Manoj Tiwari

Abstract:

Global Developmental Delay (GDD) is a common pediatric condition. Etiologies of GDD might, however, differ in developing countries. In the last decade, sporadic families are being reported in various countries. As to the author’s best knowledge, many risk factors and their correlation with the prevalence of GDD have been studied but its statistical correlation has not been done. Thus we propose the present study by targeting the risk factor, prevalence and their statistical correlation with GDD. FMR1 gene was studied to confirm the disease and its penetrance. A complete questionnaire-based performance was designed for the statistical studies having a personal, past and present medical history along with their socio-economic status as well. Methods: We distributed the children’s age in 4 different age groups having 5-year intervals and applied structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, Karl Pearson correlation coefficient, and chi-square test.Result: A total of 1100 families were enrolled for this study; among them, 330 were clinically and biologically confirmed (radiological studies) for the disease, 204 were males (61.8%), 126 were females (38.18%). We found that 27.87% were genetic and 72.12 were sporadic, out of 72.12 %, 43.277% cases from urban and 56.72% from the rural locality, the mothers' literacy rate was 32.12% and working women numbers were 41.21%. Conclusions: There is a significant association between mothers' age and GDD prevalence, which is also followed by mothers' literacy rate and mothers' occupation, whereas there was no association between fathers' age and GDD.

Keywords: global developmental delay, FMR1 gene, spearman’ rank correlation coefficient, structural equation modeling

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6226 A Cross Sectional Study on Pharmacy Workforce in Saudi Arabia: Evaluating Supply and Demand, Distribution and Employment Prospects

Authors: Dalia Almaghaslah, A. Alsayari, R. Asiri, N. Albugami

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the pharmacy workforce in Saudi Arabia in terms of supply, geographical distribution, nationality and gender distribution, as well as to assess the employment rate. A retrospective cross-sectional approach was used to address these objectives. Relevant data was identified and retrieved from the latest version of the Health Statistical Yearbook— Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2016; Saudi Commission for Health Specialties publications, 2018; and national pharmacy organisation websites. In general, the exponential increase in the number of pharmacy schools has helped to produce more pharmacists in the rural areas of the country, but inequitable distribution of the workforce still exists. The reliance on non-indigenous pharmacists, especially in the private sector, is substantial. Male pharmacists outnumber females, mainly due to the cultural and social factors that limit the participation of women in community pharmacy, which is the largest employment sector. The employment rate shows limited opportunities for Saudi pharmacists at the Ministry of Health (MOH) as they have already Saudised almost all pharmacy positions at the MOH healthcare facilities. However, the private sector needs to assume responsibility for their share of the re-nationalisation of the profession in order to provide jobs for local pharmacists. Regular, more detailed profiling of the pharmacy workforce is an essential step to achieving effective pharmacy workforce planning. Currently, a large gap exists in our knowledge of the workforce in the country, especially regarding their supply and demand and employment prospects.

Keywords: employment prospects, pharmacy workforce, Saudi Arabia, supply and demand

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6225 Design of Demand Pacemaker Using an Embedded Controller

Authors: C. Bala Prashanth Reddy, B. Abhinay, C. Sreekar, D. V. Shobhana Priscilla

Abstract:

The project aims in designing an emergency pacemaker which is capable of giving shocks to a human heart which has stopped working suddenly. A pacemaker is a machine commonly used by cardiologists. This machine is used in order to shock a human’s heart back into usage. The way the heart works is that there are small cells called pacemakers sending electrical pulses to cardiac muscles that tell the heart when to pump blood. When these electrical pulses stop, the heart stops beating. When this happens, a pacemaker is used to shock the heart muscles and the pacemakers back into action. The way this is achieved is by rubbing the two panels of the pacemaker together to create an adequate electrical current, and then the heart gets back to the normal state. The project aims in designing a system which is capable of continuously displaying the heart beat and blood pressure of a person on LCD. The concerned doctor gets the heart beat and also the blood pressure details continuously through the GSM Modem in the form of SMS alerts. In case of abnormal condition, the doctor sends message format regarding the amount of electric shock needed. Automatically the microcontroller gives the input to the pacemaker which in turn gives the shock to the patient. Heart beat monitor and display system is a portable and a best replacement for the old model stethoscope which is less efficient. The heart beat rate is calculated manually using stethoscope where the probability of error is high because the heart beat rate lies in the range of 70 to 90 per minute whose occurrence is less than 1 sec, so this device can be considered as a very good alternative instead of a stethoscope.

Keywords: missing R wave, PWM, demand pacemaker, heart

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6224 Water Desalination by Membrane Distillation with MFI Zeolite Membranes

Authors: Angelo Garofalo, Laura Donato, Maria Concetta Carnevale, Enrico Drioli, Omar Alharbi, Saad Aljlil, Alessandra Criscuoli, Catia Algieri

Abstract:

Nowadays, water scarcity may be considered one of the most important and serious questions concerning our community: in fact, there is a remarkable mismatch between water supply and water demand. Exploitation of natural fresh water resources combined with higher water demand has led to an increased requirement for alternative water resources. In this context, desalination provides such an alternative source, offering water otherwise not accessible for irrigational, industrial and municipal use. Considering the various drawbacks of the polymeric membranes, zeolite membranes represent a potential device for water desalination owing to their high thermal and chemical stability. In this area wide attention was focused on the MFI (silicalite, ZSM-5) membranes, having a pore size lower (about 5.5 Å) than the major kinetic diameters of hydrated ions. In the present work, a scale-up for the preparation of supported silicalite membranes was performed. Therefore, tubular membranes 30 cm long were synthesized by using the secondary growth method coupled with the cross flow seeding procedure. The secondary growth presents two steps: seeding and growth of zeolite crystals on the support. This process, decoupling zeolite nucleation from crystals growth, permits to control the conditions of each step separately. The seeding procedure consists of a cross-flow filtration through a porous support coupled with the support rotation and tilting. The combination of these three different aspects allows a homogeneous and uniform coverage of the support with the zeolite seeds. After characterization by scanning electron microscope (SEM), X-ray diffractometry (XRD) and Energy-dispersive X-ray (EDX) analysis, the prepared membranes were tested by means of single gas permeation and then by Vacuum Membrane Distillation (VMD) using both deionized water and NaCl solutions. The experimental results evidenced the possibility to perform the scale up for the preparation of almost defect free silicalite membranes. VMD tests indicated the possibility to prepare membranes that exhibit interesting performance in terms of fluxes and salt rejections for concentrations from 0.2 M to 0.9 M. Furthermore, it was possible to restore the original performance of the membrane after an identified cleaning procedure. Acknowledgements: The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) for funding the research Project 895/33 entitled ‘Preparation and Characterization of Zeolite Membranes for Water Treatment’.

Keywords: desalination, MFI membranes, secondary growth, vacuum membrane distillation

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6223 The Utilization of Salicylic Acid of the Extract from Avocado Skin as an Inhibitor of Ethylene Production to Keep the Quality of Banana in Storage

Authors: Adira Nofeadri Ryofi, Alvin Andrianus, Anna Khairunnisa, Anugrah Cahyo Widodo, Arbhyando Tri Putrananda, Arsy Imanda N. Raswati, Gita Rahmaningsih, Ina Agustina

Abstract:

The consumption level of fresh bananas from 2005 until 2010, increased from 8.2 to 10 kg/capita/year. The commercial scale of banana generally harvested when it still green to make the banana avoid physical damage, chemical, and disease after harvest and ripe fruit. That first metabolism activity can be used as a synthesis reaction. Ripening fruit was influenced by ethylene hormone that synthesized in fruit which is experiencing ripe and including hormone in the ripening fruit process in klimaterik phase. This ethylene hormone is affected by the respiration level that would speed up the restructuring of carbohydrates inside the fruit, so the weighting of fruit will be decreased. Compared to other klimaterik fruit, banana is a fruit that has a medium ethylene production rate and the rate of respiration is low. The salicylic acid can regulate the result number of the growth process or the development of fruits and plants. Salicylic acid serves to hinder biosynthesis ethylene and delay senses. The research aims to understand the influence of salicylic acid concentration that derived from the waste of avocado skin in inhibition process to ethylene production that the maturation can be controlled, so it can keep the quality of banana for storage. It is also to increase the potential value of the waste of avocado skin that were still used in industrial cosmetics.

Keywords: ethylene hormone, extract avocado skin, inhibitor, salicylic acid

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6222 Hybrid Data-Driven Drilling Rate of Penetration Optimization Scheme Guided by Geological Formation and Historical Data

Authors: Ammar Alali, Mahmoud Abughaban, William Contreras Otalvora

Abstract:

Optimizing the drilling process for cost and efficiency requires the optimization of the rate of penetration (ROP). ROP is the measurement of the speed at which the wellbore is created, in units of feet per hour. It is the primary indicator of measuring drilling efficiency. Maximization of the ROP can indicate fast and cost-efficient drilling operations; however, high ROPs may induce unintended events, which may lead to nonproductive time (NPT) and higher net costs. The proposed ROP optimization solution is a hybrid, data-driven system that aims to improve the drilling process, maximize the ROP, and minimize NPT. The system consists of two phases: (1) utilizing existing geological and drilling data to train the model prior, and (2) real-time adjustments of the controllable dynamic drilling parameters [weight on bit (WOB), rotary speed (RPM), and pump flow rate (GPM)] that direct influence on the ROP. During the first phase of the system, geological and historical drilling data are aggregated. After, the top-rated wells, as a function of high instance ROP, are distinguished. Those wells are filtered based on NPT incidents, and a cross-plot is generated for the controllable dynamic drilling parameters per ROP value. Subsequently, the parameter values (WOB, GPM, RPM) are calculated as a conditioned mean based on physical distance, following Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation methodology. The first phase is concluded by producing a model of drilling best practices from the offset wells, prioritizing the optimum ROP value. This phase is performed before the commencing of drilling. Starting with the model produced in phase one, the second phase runs an automated drill-off test, delivering live adjustments in real-time. Those adjustments are made by directing the driller to deviate two of the controllable parameters (WOB and RPM) by a small percentage (0-5%), following the Constrained Random Search (CRS) methodology. These minor incremental variations will reveal new drilling conditions, not explored before through offset wells. The data is then consolidated into a heat-map, as a function of ROP. A more optimum ROP performance is identified through the heat-map and amended in the model. The validation process involved the selection of a planned well in an onshore oil field with hundreds of offset wells. The first phase model was built by utilizing the data points from the top-performing historical wells (20 wells). The model allows drillers to enhance decision-making by leveraging existing data and blending it with live data in real-time. An empirical relationship between controllable dynamic parameters and ROP was derived using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The adjustments resulted in improved ROP efficiency by over 20%, translating to at least 10% saving in drilling costs. The novelty of the proposed system lays is its ability to integrate historical data, calibrate based geological formations, and run real-time global optimization through CRS. Those factors position the system to work for any newly drilled well in a developing field event.

Keywords: drilling optimization, geological formations, machine learning, rate of penetration

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6221 An Evaluation of the Use of Telematics for Improving the Driving Behaviours of Young People

Authors: James Boylan, Denny Meyer, Won Sun Chen

Abstract:

Background: Globally, there is an increasing trend of road traffic deaths, reaching 1.35 million in 2016 in comparison to 1.3 million a decade ago, and overall, road traffic injuries are ranked as the eighth leading cause of death for all age groups. The reported death rate for younger drivers aged 16-19 years is almost twice the rate reported for older drivers aged 25 and above, with a rate of 3.5 road traffic fatalities per annum for every 10,000 licenses held. Telematics refers to a system with the ability to capture real-time data about vehicle usage. The data collected from telematics can be used to better assess a driver's risk. It is typically used to measure acceleration, turn, braking, and speed, as well as to provide locational information. With the Australian government creating the National Telematics Framework, there has been an increase in the government's focus on using telematics data to improve road safety outcomes. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that improvements in telematics measured driving behaviour to relate to improvements in road safety attitudes measured by the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ). Methodology: 28 participants were recruited and given a telematics device to insert into their vehicles for the duration of the study. The participant's driving behaviour over the course of the first month will be compared to their driving behaviour in the second month to determine whether feedback from telematics devices improves driving behaviour. Participants completed the DBQ, evaluated using a 6-point Likert scale (0 = never, 5 = nearly all the time) at the beginning, after the first month, and after the second month of the study. This is a well-established instrument used worldwide. Trends in the telematics data will be captured and correlated with the changes in the DBQ using regression models in SAS. Results: The DBQ has provided a reliable measure (alpha = .823) of driving behaviour based on a sample of 23 participants, with an average of 50.5 and a standard deviation of 11.36, and a range of 29 to 76, with higher scores, indicating worse driving behaviours. This initial sample is well stratified in terms of gender and age (range 19-27). It is expected that in the next six weeks, a larger sample of around 40 will have completed the DBQ after experiencing in-vehicle telematics for 30 days, allowing a comparison with baseline levels. The trends in the telematics data over the first 30 days will be compared with the changes observed in the DBQ. Conclusions: It is expected that there will be a significant relationship between the improvements in the DBQ and the trends in reduced telematics measured aggressive driving behaviours supporting the hypothesis.

Keywords: telematics, driving behavior, young drivers, driving behaviour questionnaire

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6220 Thermodynamic and Immunochemical Studies of Antibody Biofunctionalized Gold Nanoparticles Mediated Photothermal Ablation in Human Liver Cancer Cells

Authors: Lucian Mocan, Flaviu Tabaran, Teodora Mocan, Cristian Matea, Cornel Iancu

Abstract:

We present method of Gold Nanoparticle enhanced laser thermal ablation of HepG2 cells (Human hepatocellular liver carcinoma cell line), based on a simple gold nanoparticle carrier system, such as serum albumin (BSA), and demonstrate its selective therapeutic efficacy. Hyperspectral, contrast phase, and confocal microscopy combined immunochemical staining were used to demonstrate the selective internalization of HSA-GNPs via Gp60 receptors and the caveolin-mediated endocytosis inside HepG2 cells. We examined the ability of laser-activated carbon nanotubes to induce Hsp70 expression using confocal microscopy. Hep G2 cells heat-shocked (laser activated BSA-GNPs) to 42°C demonstrated an up-regulation of Hsp70 compared with control cells (BSA-GNPs treated cells without laser), which showed no detectable constitutive expression of Hsp70. We observed a time-dependent induction in Hsp70 expression in Hep G2 treated with BSA-GNPs and LASER irradiated. The post-irradiation apoptotic rate of HepG2 cells treated with HSA-GNPs ranged from 88.24% (for 50 mg/L) at 60 seconds, while at 30 minute the rate increased to 92.34% (50 mg/L). These unique results may represent a major step in liver cancer treatment using nanolocalized thermal ablation by laser heating.

Keywords: gold nanoparticles, liver cancer, albumin, laser irradiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 306
6219 Changes in Heavy Metals Bioavailability in Manure-Derived Digestates and Subsequent Hydrochars to Be Used as Soil Amendments

Authors: Hellen L. De Castro e Silva, Ana A. Robles Aguilar, Erik Meers

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Digestates are residual by-products, rich in nutrients and trace elements, which can be used as organic fertilisers on soils. However, due to the non-digestibility of these elements and reduced dry matter during the anaerobic digestion process, metal concentrations are higher in digestates than in feedstocks, which might hamper their use as fertilisers according to the threshold values of some country policies. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the required assimilated amount of these elements by some crops, which might result in their bioaccumulation. Therefore, further processing of the digestate to obtain safe fertilizing products has been recommended. This research aims to analyze the effect of applying the hydrothermal carbonization process to manure-derived digestates as a thermal treatment to reduce the bioavailability of heavy metals in mono and co-digestates derived from pig manure and maize from contaminated land in France. This study examined pig manure collected from a novel stable system (VeDoWs, province of East Flanders, Belgium) that separates the collection of pig urine and feces, resulting in a solid fraction of manure with high up-concentration of heavy metals and nutrients. Mono-digestion and co-digestion processes were conducted in semi-continuous reactors for 45 days at mesophilic conditions, in which the digestates were dried at 105 °C for 24 hours. Then, hydrothermal carbonization was applied to a 1:10 solid/water ratio to guarantee controlled experimental conditions in different temperatures (180, 200, and 220 °C) and residence times (2 h and 4 h). During the process, the pressure was generated autogenously, and the reactor was cooled down after completing the treatments. The solid and liquid phases were separated through vacuum filtration, in which the solid phase of each treatment -hydrochar- was dried and ground for chemical characterization. Different fractions (exchangeable / adsorbed fraction - F1, carbonates-bound fraction - F2, organic matter-bound fraction - F3, and residual fraction – F4) of some heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Ni, and Cr) have been determined in digestates and derived hydrochars using the modified Community Bureau of Reference (BCR) sequential extraction procedure. The main results indicated a difference in the heavy metals fractionation between digestates and their derived hydrochars; however, the hydrothermal carbonization operating conditions didn’t have remarkable effects on heavy metals partitioning between the hydrochars of the proposed treatments. Based on the estimated potential ecological risk assessment, there was one level decrease (considerate to moderate) when comparing the HMs partitioning in digestates and derived hydrochars.

Keywords: heavy metals, bioavailability, hydrothermal treatment, bio-based fertilisers, agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
6218 The Corrosion Resistance of P/M Alumix 431D Compacts

Authors: J. Kazior, A. Szewczyk-Nykiel, T. Pieczonka, M. Laska

Abstract:

Aluminium alloys are an important class of engineering materials for structural applications. This is due to the fact that these alloys have many interesting properties, namely, low density, high ratio of strength to density, good thermal and electrical conductivity, good corrosion resistance as well as extensive capabilities for shaping processes. In case of classical PM technology a particular attention should be paid to the selection of appropriate parameters of compacting and sintering processes and to keeping them. The latter need arises from the high sensitivity of aluminium based alloy powders on any fluctuation of technological parameters, in particular those related to the temperature-time profile and gas flow. Only then the desired sintered compacts with residual porosity may be produced. Except high mechanical properties, the other profitable properties of almost fully dense sintered components could be expected. Among them is corrosion resistance, rarely investigated on PM aluminium alloys. Thus, in the current study the Alumix 431/D commercial, press-ready grade powder was used for this purpose. Sintered compacts made of it in different conditions (isothermal sintering temperature, gas flow rate) were subjected to corrosion experiments in 0,1 M and 0,5 M NaCl solutions. The potentiodynamic curves were used to establish parameters characterising the corrosion resistance of sintered Alumix 431/D powder, namely, the corrosion potential, the corrosion current density, the polarization resistance, the breakdown potential. The highest value of polarization resistance, the lowest value of corrosion current density and the most positive corrosion potential was obtained for Alumix431/D powder sintered at 600°C and for highest protective gas flow rate.

Keywords: aluminium alloys, sintering, corrosion resistance, industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 346
6217 Biomass Enhancement of Stevia (Stevia rebaudiana Bertoni) Shoot Culture in Temporary Immersion System (TIS) RITA® Bioreactor Optimized in Two Different Immersion Periods

Authors: Agustine Melviana, Rizkita Esyanti

Abstract:

Stevia plant contains steviol glycosides which is estimated to be 300 times sweeter than sucrose. However in Indonesia, conventional (in vivo) propagation of Stevia rebaudiana was not effective due to a poor result. Therefore, alternative methods to propagate S. rebaudiana plants is needed, one of it is using in vitro method. Multiplication with a large quantity of stevia biomass in relatively short period can be conducted by using TIS RITA® (Recipient for Automated Temporary Immersion System). The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of immersion period of the medium on growth and the medium bioconversion into the production of shoot biomass. The study was conducted to determine the effect of different intensity period of medium to enhance biomass of stevia shoots. Shoot culture of S. rebaudiana was grown in full strength MS medium supplemented with 1 ppm Kinetin. RITA® bioreactors were set up with two different immersion periods, 15 min (RITA® 15) and 30 min (RITA® 30), scheduled every 6 hours and incubated for 21 days. The result indicated that immersion period affected the biomass and growth rate (µ). Thirty-minutes immersion showed greater percentage of shoot multiplication (93.44 ± 0.83%), percentage of leaf growth (85.24 ± 5.99%), growth rate (0.042 ± 0.001 g/day), and productivity (0.066 g/L medium/day) compared to that immersed in RITA® 15 min (76.90 ± 4.85%; 79.73 ± 7.76; 0.045 ± 0.004 g/day, and 0.045 g/L medium/day respectively). Enhancement of biomass in RITA® 30 reached 1,702 ± 0,114 gr, whereas in RITA® 15 only 0,953 ± 0,093 gr. Additionally, the pattern of sucrose, mineral, and inorganic compounds consumption followed the growth of plant biomass for both systems. In conclusion, the bioconversion efficiency from medium to biomass in RITA® 30 is better than RITA® 15.

Keywords: intensity period, shoot culture, Stevia rebaudiana, TIS RITA®

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
6216 An Investigation of System and Operating Parameters on the Performance of Parabolic Trough Solar Collector for Power Generation

Authors: Umesh Kumar Sinha, Y. K. Nayak, N. Kumar, Swapnil Saurav, Monika Kashyap

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The authors investigate the effect of system and operating parameters on the performance of high temperature solar concentrator for power generation. The effects of system and operating parameters were investigated using the developed mathematical expressions for collector efficiency, heat removal factor, fluid outlet temperature and power, etc. The results were simulated using C++program. The simulated results were plotted for investigation like effect of thermal loss parameter and radiative loss parameters on the collector efficiency, heat removal factor, fluid outlet temperature, rise of temperature and effect of mass flow rate of the fluid outlet temperature. In connection with the power generation, plots were drawn for the effect of (TM–TAMB) on the variation of concentration efficiency, concentrator irradiance on PM/PMN, evaporation temperature on thermal to electric power efficiency (Conversion efficiency) of the plant and overall efficiency of solar power plant.

Keywords: parabolic trough solar collector, radiative and thermal loss parameters, collector efficiency, heat removal factor, fluid outlet and inlet temperatures, rise of temperature, mass flow rate, conversion efficiency, concentrator irradiance

Procedia PDF Downloads 322
6215 Performance Analysis and Multi-Objective Optimization of a Kalina Cycle for Low-Temperature Applications

Authors: Sadegh Sadeghi, Negar Shabani

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From a thermal point of view, zeotropic mixtures are likely to be more efficient than azeotropic fluids in low-temperature thermodynamic cycles due to their suitable boiling characteristics. In this study, performance of a low-temperature Kalina cycle with R717/water working fluid used in different existing power plants is mathematically investigated. To analyze the behavior of the cycle, mass conservation, energy conservation, and exergy balance equations are presented. With regard to the similarity in molar mass of R717 (17.03 gr/mol) and water (18.01 gr/mol), there is no need to alter the size of Kalina system components such as turbine and pump. To optimize the cycle energy and exergy efficiencies simultaneously, a constrained multi-objective optimization is carried out applying an Artificial Bee Colony algorithm. The main motivation behind using this algorithm lies on its robustness, reliability, remarkable precision and high–speed convergence rate in dealing with complicated constrained multi-objective problems. Convergence rates of the algorithm for calculating the optimal energy and exergy efficiencies are presented. Subsequently, due to the importance of exergy concept in Kalina cycles, exergy destructions occurring in the components are computed. Finally, the impacts of pressure, temperature, mass fraction and mass flow rate on the energy and exergy efficiencies are elaborately studied.

Keywords: artificial bee colony algorithm, binary zeotropic mixture, constrained multi-objective optimization, energy efficiency, exergy efficiency, Kalina cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 153
6214 Algorithmic Approach to Management of Complications of Permanent Facial Filler: A Saudi Experience

Authors: Luay Alsalmi

Abstract:

Background: Facial filler is the most common type of cosmetic surgery next to botox. Permanent filler is preferred nowadays due to the low cost brought about by non-recurring injection appointments. However, such fillers pose a higher risk for complications, with even greater adverse effects when the procedure is done using unknown dermal filler injections. AIM: This study aimed to establish an algorithm to categorize and manage patients that receive permanent fillers. Materials and Methods: Twelve participants were presented to the service through emergency or as outpatient from November 2015 to May 2021. Demographics such as age, sex, date of injection, time of onset, and types of complications were collected. After examination, all cases were managed based on an algorithm established. FACE-Q was used to measure overall satisfaction and psychological well-being. Results: The algorithm to diagnose and manage these patients effectively with a high satisfaction rate was established in this study. All participants were non-smoker females with no known medical comorbidities. The algorithm presented determined the treatment plan when faced with complications. Results revealed high appearance-related psychosocial distress was observed prior to surgery, while it significantly dropped after surgery. FACE-Q was able to establish evidence of satisfactory ratings among patients prior to and after surgery. Conclusion: This treatment algorithm can guide the surgeon in formulating a suitable plan with fewer complications and a high satisfaction rate.

Keywords: facial filler, FACE-Q, psycho-social stress, botox, treatment algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 85
6213 Effects of Drying Method and Seed Priming Duration on Coffee Seed and Seedling Quality

Authors: Taju Mohammednur, Tesfaye Megersa, Karta Kaske

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Coffee is an economically important cash crop in Ethiopia. However, the conditions under which coffee seeds are dried and processed significantly affect the seedling quality and productivity. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of pre-sowing treatments and drying methods on the physiological quality of coffee seeds and seedlings. The study included two coffee varieties (74110, 75227), two drying conditions (under-shade drying room, open sun), and five durations of seed hydro priming (6, 8, 18, 24 hours, and an untreated control). Factorial combinations of the three factors were laid out in a Completely Randomized Design of three replications. Results indicated that the highest germination percentage (91%), emergence rate (90%), and seedling vigor index-I (2236 cm %) were recorded for seeds dried under-shade drying room. In contrast, the lowest values of germination percentage, emergence rate, and vigor index were observed for seeds dried under open sun. There was a significant difference in seed germination based on hydro priming time, with the highest germination percentage (83%) recorded for seeds soaked for 6 hours, followed by 24 hours (83%). The lowest germination percentage (77%) was recorded for un-soaked seeds. In conclusion, drying seeds under shade is better for coffee seed quality, and hydro priming has improved seedling vigor. However, further investigation into seed priming methods and preservation techniques for primed seeds is necessary to improve coffee seed quality.

Keywords: coffee, germination, seed drying, seed longevity, seed priming

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6212 Agreement between Basal Metabolic Rate Measured by Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis and Estimated by Prediction Equations in Obese Groups

Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

Abstract:

Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is widely used and an accepted measure of energy expenditure. Its principal determinant is body mass. However, this parameter is also correlated with a variety of other factors. The objective of this study is to measure BMR and compare it with the values obtained from predictive equations in adults classified according to their body mass index (BMI) values. 276 adults were included into the scope of this study. Their age, height and weight values were recorded. Five groups were designed based on their BMI values. First group (n = 85) was composed of individuals with BMI values varying between 18.5 and 24.9 kg/m2. Those with BMI values varying from 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m2 constituted Group 2 (n = 90). Individuals with 30.0-34.9 kg/m2, 35.0-39.9 kg/m2, > 40.0 kg/m2 were included in Group 3 (n = 53), 4 (n = 28) and 5 (n = 20), respectively. The most commonly used equations to be compared with the measured BMR values were selected. For this purpose, the values were calculated by the use of four equations to predict BMR values, by name, introduced by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO)/United Nations University (UNU), Harris and Benedict, Owen and Mifflin. Descriptive statistics, ANOVA, post-Hoc Tukey and Pearson’s correlation tests were performed by a statistical program designed for Windows (SPSS, version 16.0). p values smaller than 0.05 were accepted as statistically significant. Mean ± SD of groups 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 for measured BMR in kcal were 1440.3 ± 210.0, 1618.8 ± 268.6, 1741.1 ± 345.2, 1853.1 ± 351.2 and 2028.0 ± 412.1, respectively. Upon evaluation of the comparison of means among groups, differences were highly significant between Group 1 and each of the remaining four groups. The values were increasing from Group 2 to Group 5. However, differences between Group 2 and Group 3, Group 3 and Group 4, Group 4 and Group 5 were not statistically significant. These insignificances were lost in predictive equations proposed by Harris and Benedict, FAO/WHO/UNU and Owen. For Mifflin, the insignificance was limited only to Group 4 and Group 5. Upon evaluation of the correlations of measured BMR and the estimated values computed from prediction equations, the lowest correlations between measured BMR and estimated BMR values were observed among the individuals within normal BMI range. The highest correlations were detected in individuals with BMI values varying between 30.0 and 34.9 kg/m2. Correlations between measured BMR values and BMR values calculated by FAO/WHO/UNU as well as Owen were the same and the highest. In all groups, the highest correlations were observed between BMR values calculated from Mifflin and Harris and Benedict equations using age as an additional parameter. In conclusion, the unique resemblance of the FAO/WHO/UNU and Owen equations were pointed out. However, mean values obtained from FAO/WHO/UNU were much closer to the measured BMR values. Besides, the highest correlations were found between BMR calculated from FAO/WHO/UNU and measured BMR. These findings suggested that FAO/WHO/UNU was the most reliable equation, which may be used in conditions when the measured BMR values are not available.

Keywords: adult, basal metabolic rate, fao/who/unu, obesity, prediction equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
6211 Complications and Outcomes of Cochlear Implantation in Children Younger than 12 Months: A Multicenter Study

Authors: Alimohamad Asghari, Ahmad Daneshi, Mohammad Farhadi, Arash Bayat, Mohammad Ajalloueyan, Marjan Mirsalehi, Mohsen Rajati, Seyed Basir Hashemi, Nader Saki, Ali Omidvari

Abstract:

Evidence suggests that Cochlear Implantation (CI) is a beneficial approach for auditory and speech skills improvement in children with severe to profound hearing loss. However, it remains controversial if implantation in children <12 months is safe and effective compared to older children. The present study aimed to determine whether children's ages affect surgical complications and auditory and speech development. The current multicenter study enrolled 86 children who underwent CI surgery at <12 months of age (group A) and 362 children who underwent implantation between 12 and 24 months of age (group B). The Categories of Auditory Performance (CAP) and Speech Intelligibility Rating (SIR) scores were determined pre-impanation, and "one-year" and "two-year" post-implantation. Four complications (overall rate: 4.65%; three minor) occurred in group A and 12 complications (overall rate: 4.41%; nine minor) occurred in group B. We found no statistically significant difference in the complication rates between the groups (p>0.05). The mean SIR and CAP scores improved over time following CI activation in both groups. However, we did not find significant differences in CAP and SIR scores between the groups across different time points. Cochlear implantation is a safe and efficient procedure in children younger than 12 months, providing substantial auditory and speech benefits comparable to children undergoing implantation at 12 to 24 months of age. Furthermore, surgical complications in younger children are similar to those of children undergoing the CI at an older age.

Keywords: cochlear implant, Infant, complications, outcome

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
6210 Growing Sorghum Varieties with Potential of Fodder and Biofuel Crops, with Potential of Two Harvest in One Year

Authors: Farah Jafarpisheh, John Hutson, Howard Fallowfield

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Growing Sorghum varieties, with the potential of the animal food source, by using the treated wastewater from High Rate Algae Ponds (HRAPs) is an attractive subject. For the first time, in South Australia, Sorghum Earthnote variety one (SE1) has been grown using the wastewater from HRAPs. In this study, after the first harvest, the roots left in the soil. After a short period of time, sorghum started to regrow again, which can increase the value of planting sorghum by using the wastewater. This study demonstrates the higher amount of green biomass with the potential of animal food source after the second harvest. Different parameters, including height(mm), number of leaves and tiller, Brix percentage, fresh and dry leaf weight(g), total top fresh weight(g), stem and seed dry and fresh weight(g) have been measured in the field after first and second harvest. The results demonstrated the higher height, number of tiller, and diameter after the second harvest. Number of leaves and leaves fresh weight and total top weight increased by 6 and 10 times, respectively. Brix percentage increased by 2 times. In the first harvest, no seeds harvested, while in the second harvest, 134 g seeds harvested. This sorghum variety (SE1) showed the acceptable green biomass, especially after the second harvest. This property will add to the value of sorghum in this condition, as it will not need extra fertilizer and labor work for seed planting.

Keywords: energy, high rate algae ponds, HRAPs, Sorghum, waste water

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
6209 An Integration of Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization to Forecast Transport Energy Demand

Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

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Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 369