Search results for: cluster model approach

Authors: Mohammad Alnabhan, Awni Hammouri, Mustafa Hammad, Anas Al-Badareen, Omamah Al-Thnebat

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Software visualization is one of the main techniques used to simplify the presentation of software systems and enhance their understandability. It is used to present the software system in a visual manner using simple, clear and meaningful symbols. This study proposes a new 2D software visualization approach. In this approach, each class is represented by rectangle, the name of the class placed above the rectangle, the size of class (Line of Code) represented by the height of the rectangle. The methods and the attributes are represented by circles and triangles respectively. The relationships among classes correspond to arrows. The proposed visualization approach was evaluated in terms of applicability and efficiency. Results have confirmed successful implementation of the proposed approach, and its ability to provide a simple and effective graphical presentation of extracted software components and properties.

Keywords: software visualization, software metrics, calling relationships, 2D graphs

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Authors: Sudhir Kumar Tiwari

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The paper demonstrates a methodology that can be used at an early design stage of any conventional aircraft. This research activity assesses the feasibility derivation of methodology for aircraft loads estimation during the various phases of design for a transport category aircraft by utilizing potential of using commercial finite element analysis software, which may drive significant time saving. Early Design phase have limited data and quick changing configuration results in handling of large number of load cases. It is useful to idealize the aircraft as a connection of beams, which can be very accurately modelled using finite element analysis (beam elements). This research explores the correct approach towards idealizing an aircraft using beam elements. FEM Techniques like inertia relief were studied for implementation during course of work. The correct boundary condition technique envisaged for generation of shear force, bending moment and torque diagrams for the aircraft. The possible applications of this approach are the aircraft design process, which have been investigated.

Keywords: multi-disciplinary optimization, aircraft load, finite element analysis, stick model

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Authors: Pedro Paulo Galindo Francisco, Eli Dhadad Junior

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This study addresses the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle by introducing the latest machine learning techniques as alternatives for predicting the exchange rates. Using RMSE as a comparison metric, Meese and Rogoff discovered that economic models are unable to outperform the random walk model as short-term exchange rate predictors. Decades after this study, no statistical prediction technique has proven effective in overcoming this obstacle; although there were positive results, they did not apply to all currencies and defined periods. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence technologies have paved the way for a new approach to exchange rate prediction. Leveraging this technology, we applied five machine learning techniques to attempt to overcome the Meese-Rogoff puzzle. We considered daily data for the real, yen, British pound, euro, and Chinese yuan against the US dollar over a time horizon from 2010 to 2023. Our results showed that none of the presented techniques were able to produce an RMSE lower than the Random Walk model. However, the performance of some models, particularly LSTM and N-BEATS were able to outperform the ARIMA model. The results also suggest that machine learning models have untapped potential and could represent an effective long-term possibility for overcoming the Meese-Rogoff puzzle.

Keywords: exchage rate, prediction, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Janneth Gonzalez, Andrés Pinzon Velasco, Maria Angarita

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Astrocytes play an important role in various processes in the brain, including pathological conditions such as neurodegenerative diseases. Recent studies have shown that the increase in saturated fatty acids such as palmitic acid (PA) triggers pro-inflammatorypathways in the brain. The use of synthetic neurosteroids such as tibolone has demonstrated neuro-protective mechanisms. However, broad studies with a systemic point of view on the neurodegenerative role of PA and the neuro-protective mechanisms of tibolone are lacking. In this study, we performed the integration of multi-omic data (transcriptome and proteome) into a human astrocyte genomic scale metabolic model to study the astrocytic response during palmitate treatment. We evaluated metabolic fluxes in three scenarios (healthy, induced inflammation by PA, and tibolone treatment under PA inflammation). We also applied a control theory approach to identify those reactions that exert more control in the astrocytic system. Our results suggest that PA generates a modulation of central and secondary metabolism, showing a switch in energy source use through inhibition of folate cycle and fatty acid β‐oxidation and upregulation of ketone bodies formation. We found 25 metabolic switches under PA‐mediated cellular regulation, 9 of which were critical only in the inflammatory scenario but not in the protective tibolone one. Within these reactions, inhibitory, total, and directional coupling profiles were key findings, playing a fundamental role in the (de)regulation of metabolic pathways that may increase neurotoxicity and represent potential treatment targets. Finally, the overall framework of our approach facilitates the understanding of complex metabolic regulation, and it can be used for in silico exploration of the mechanisms of astrocytic cell regulation, directing a more complex future experimental work in neurodegenerative diseases.

Keywords: astrocytes, data integration, palmitic acid, computational model, multi-omics

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Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

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The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

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Authors: Matthew John F. Sino Cruz, Sarah Jane M. Ferrer, Janice C. Francisco

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COVID-19 pandemic has affected more than 114 countries all over the world since it was considered a global health concern in 2020. Different sectors, including education, have shifted to remote/distant setups to follow the guidelines set to prevent the spread of the disease. One of the higher education institutes which shifted to remote setup is the Pangasinan State University (PSU). In order to continue providing quality instructions to the students, PSU designed Flexible Learning Model to still provide services to its stakeholders amidst the pandemic. The model covers the redesigning of delivering instructions in remote setup and the technology needed to support these adjustments. The primary goal of this study is to determine the insights of the PSU – Bayambang students towards the remote setup implemented during the pandemic and how they perceived the initiatives employed in relation to their experiences in flexible learning. In this study, the topic modelling approach was implemented using Latent Dirichlet Allocation. The dataset used in the study. The results show that the most common concern of the students includes time and resource management, poor internet connection issues, and difficulty coping with the flexible learning modality. Furthermore, the findings of the study can be used as one of the bases for the administration to review and improve the policies and initiatives implemented during the pandemic in relation to remote service delivery. In addition, further studies can be conducted to determine the overall sentiment of the other stakeholders in the policies implemented at the University.

Keywords: COVID-19, topic modelling, students’ sentiment, flexible learning, Latent Dirichlet allocation

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Mahesh Pal

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The paper investigates the potential of support vector machines based regression approach to model the mass transfer capacity of multiple plunging jets, both vertical (θ = 90°) and inclined (θ = 60°). The data set used in this study consists of four input parameters with a total of eighty eight cases. For testing, tenfold cross validation was used. Correlation coefficient values of 0.971 and 0.981 (root mean square error values of 0.0025 and 0.0020) were achieved by using polynomial and radial basis kernel functions based support vector regression respectively. Results suggest an improved performance by radial basis function in comparison to polynomial kernel based support vector machines. The estimated overall mass transfer coefficient, by both the kernel functions, is in good agreement with actual experimental values (within a scatter of ±15 %); thereby suggesting the utility of support vector machines based regression approach.

Keywords: mass transfer, multiple plunging jets, support vector machines, ecological sciences

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Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

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Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

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Authors: Ming-Jen Huang, Chun-Fang Huang, Chiching Wei

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With the recent advance of the deep neural network, we observe new applications of NLP (natural language processing) and CV (computer vision) powered by deep neural networks for processing business documents. However, creating a real-world document processing system needs to integrate several NLP and CV tasks, rather than treating them separately. There is a need to have a unified approach for processing documents containing textual and graphical elements with rich formats, diverse layout arrangement, and distinct semantics. In this paper, a framework that fulfills this unified approach is presented. The framework includes a representation model definition for holding the information generated by various tasks and specifications defining the coordination between these tasks. The framework is a blueprint for building a system that can process documents with rich formats, styles, and multiple types of elements. The flexible and lightweight design of the framework can help build a system for diverse business scenarios, such as contract monitoring and reviewing.

Keywords: document processing, framework, formal definition, machine learning

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Authors: G. Santamato, M. Solazzi, A. Frisoli

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Systems for detection of damages in railway pantographs effectively reduce the cost of maintenance and improve time scheduling. In this paper, we present an approach to design a monitoring tool fitting strong customer requirements such as portability and ease of use. Pantograph has been modeled to estimate its dynamical properties, since no data are available. With the aim to focus on suspensions health, a two Degrees of Freedom (DOF) scheme has been adopted. Parameters have been calculated by means of analytical dynamics. A Finite Element Method (FEM) modal analysis verified the former model with an acceptable error. The detection strategy seeks phase-plots topology alteration, induced by defects. In order to test the suitability of the method, leakage in the dashpot was simulated on the lumped model. Results are interesting because changes in phase plots are more appreciable than frequency-shift. Further calculations as well as experimental tests will support future developments of this smart strategy.

Keywords: pantograph models, phase plots, structural health monitoring, damage detection

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Vojo George Fasinu, Nadaraj Govender, Predeep Kumar

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An Antenna, which remains the hub of technological development in Africa had been found to be a course that is been taught and designed in an abstract manner in some universities. One of the reasons attached to this is that the appropriate approach of teaching antenna design is not yet understood by many engineering academics in some universities in South Africa. Also, another problem reported is the main difficulty encountered when interpreting and applying some of the mathematical concepts learned into their practical antenna design course. As a result of this, some engineering experts classified antenna as a mysterious technology that could not be described by anybody using mathematical concepts. In view of this, this paper takes it as its point of departure in explaining what an antenna is all about with a strong emphasis on its mathematical modelling. It also argues that the place of modelling mathematical concepts into the teaching of engineering design cannot be overemphasized. Therefore, it explains the mathematical concepts adopted during the teaching of an antenna design course, the Strategies of modelling those mathematics concepts, the behavior of antennas, and their mathematics usage were equally discussed. More so, the paper also sheds more light on mathematical modelling in South Africa context, and also comparative analysis of mathematics concepts taught in mathematics class and mathematics concepts taught in engineering courses. This paper focuses on engineering academics teaching selected topics in electronic engineering (Antenna design), with special attention on the mathematical concepts they teach and how they teach them when teaching the course. A qualitative approach was adopted as a means of collecting data in order to report the naturalistic views of the engineering academics teaching Antenna design. The findings of the study confirmed that some mathematical concepts are being modeled into the teaching of an antenna design with the adoption of some teaching approaches. Furthermore, the paper reports a didactical-realistic mathematical model as a conceptual framework used by the researchers in describing how academics teach mathematical concepts during their teaching of antenna design. Finally, the paper concludes with the importance of mathematical modelling to the engineering academics and recommendations for further researchers.

Keywords: modelling, mathematical concepts, engineering, didactical, realistic model

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Authors: Mukesh Khadka, Alexander Paz, Hanns de la Fuente-Mella

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Typically, pavement performance models are developed in two steps: (i) pavement segments with similar characteristics are grouped together to form a cluster, and (ii) the corresponding performance models are developed using statistical techniques. A challenge is to select the characteristics that define clusters and the segments associated with them. If inappropriate characteristics are used, clusters may include homogeneous segments with different performance behavior or heterogeneous segments with similar performance behavior. Prediction accuracy of performance models can be improved by grouping the pavement segments into more uniform clusters by including both characteristics and a performance measure. This grouping is not always possible due to limited information. It is impractical to include all the potential significant factors because some of them are potentially unobserved or difficult to measure. Historical performance of pavement segments could be used as a proxy to incorporate the effect of the missing potential significant factors in clustering process. The current state-of-the-art proposes Clusterwise Linear Regression (CLR) to determine the pavement clusters and the associated performance models simultaneously. CLR incorporates the effect of significant factors as well as a performance measure. In this study, a mathematical program was formulated for CLR models including multiple explanatory variables. Pavement data collected recently over the entire state of Nevada were used. International Roughness Index (IRI) was used as a pavement performance measure because it serves as a unified standard that is widely accepted for evaluating pavement performance, especially in terms of riding quality. Results illustrate the advantage of the using CLR. Previous studies have used CLR along with experimental data. This study uses actual field data collected across a variety of environmental, traffic, design, and construction and maintenance conditions.

Keywords: clusterwise regression, pavement management system, performance model, optimization

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Authors: Mustafa Kamoona, Mohamed El-Sharkawy

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Although the latest Wireless Local Area Network technology Wi-Fi 802.11i standard addresses many of the security weaknesses of the antecedent Wired Equivalent Privacy (WEP) protocol, there are still scenarios where the network security are still vulnerable. The first security model that 802.11i offers is the Personal model which is very cheap and simple to install and maintain, yet it uses a Pre Shared Key (PSK) and thus has a low to medium security level. The second model that 802.11i provide is the Enterprise model which is highly secured but much more expensive and difficult to install/maintain and requires the installation and maintenance of an authentication server that will handle the authentication and key management for the wireless network. A central issue with the personal model is that the PSK needs to be shared with all the devices that are connected to the specific Wi-Fi network. This pre-shared key, unless changed regularly, can be cracked using offline dictionary attacks within a matter of hours. The key is burdensome to change in all the connected devices manually unless there is some kind of algorithm that coordinate this PSK update. The key idea of this paper is to propose a new algorithm that proactively and effectively coordinates the pre-shared key generation, management, and distribution in the cheap WPA/WPA2 personal security model using only a DD-WRT router.

Keywords: Wi-Fi, WPS, TLS, DD-WRT

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Authors: K. Yahia, A. Ghoggal, A. Titaouine, S. E. Zouzou, F. Benchabane

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This paper deals with the problem of stator faults diagnosis in induction motors. Using the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for the current Park’s vector modulus (CPVM) analysis, the inter-turn short-circuit faults diagnosis can be achieved. This method is based on the decomposition of the CPVM signal, where wavelet approximation and detail coefficients of this signal have been extracted. The energy evaluation of a known bandwidth detail permits to define a fault severity factor (FSF). This method has been tested through the simulation of an induction motor using a mathematical model based on the winding-function approach. Simulation, as well as experimental, results show the effectiveness of the used method.

Keywords: Induction Motors (IMs), Inter-turn Short-Circuits Diagnosis, Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Current Park’s Vector Modulus (CPVM)

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

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Authors: Ana Rahma Yuniarti, Ki Moo Lim

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Slowed myocardial conduction velocity (CV) and shortened action potential duration (APD) due to some reason are associated with an increased risk of re-entrant excitation, predisposing to cardiac arrhythmia. That is because both of CV reduction and APD shortening induces shortening of wavelength. In this study, we investigated quantitatively the cardiac mechanical responses under various CV and APD using multi-scale computational model of the heart. The model consisted of electrical model coupled with the mechanical contraction model together with a lumped model of the circulatory system. The electrical model consisted of 149.344 numbers of nodes and 183.993 numbers of elements of tetrahedral mesh, whereas the mechanical model consisted of 356 numbers of nodes and 172 numbers of elements of hexahedral mesh with hermite basis. We performed the electrical simulation with two scenarios: 1) by varying the CV values with constant APD and 2) by varying the APD values with constant CV. Then, we compared the electrical and mechanical responses for both scenarios. Our simulation showed that faster CV and longer APD induced largest resultants wavelength and generated better cardiac pumping efficacy by increasing the cardiac output and consuming less energy. This is due to the long wave propagation and faster conduction generated more synchronous contraction of whole ventricle.

Keywords: conduction velocity, action potential duration, mechanical contraction model, circulatory model

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Authors: M. Mohsin Munir, Taimoor Ahmad, Javed Munir, Usman Rashid

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Determination of maximum elevation of a flowing fluid due to sudden rejection of load in a hydropower facility is of great interest to hydraulic engineers to ensure safety of the hydraulic structures. Several mathematical models exist that employ one-dimensional modeling for the determination of surge but none of these perfectly simulate real-time circumstances. The paper envisages investigation of surge inception and propagation for a Low Head Hydropower project using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis on FLOW-3D software package. The fluid dynamic model utilizes its analysis for surge by employing Reynolds’ Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations (RANSE). The CFD model is designed for a case study at Taunsa hydropower Project in Pakistan. Various scenarios have run through the model keeping in view upstream boundary conditions. The prototype results were then compared with the results of physical model testing for the same scenarios. The results of the numerical model proved quite accurate coherence with the physical model testing and offers insight into phenomenon which are not apparent in physical model and shall be adopted in future for the similar low head projects limiting delays and cost incurred in the physical model testing.

Keywords: surge, FLOW-3D, numerical model, Taunsa, RANSE

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Authors: Kolade Olawande Owoeye, George Weir

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Terrorism and extremism activities on the internet are becoming the most significant threats to national security because of their potential dangers. In response to this challenge, law enforcement and security authorities are actively implementing comprehensive measures by countering the use of the internet for terrorism. To achieve the measures, there is need for intelligence gathering via the internet. This includes real-time monitoring of potential websites that are used for recruitment and information dissemination among other operations by extremist groups. However, with billions of active webpages, real-time monitoring of all webpages become almost impossible. To narrow down the search domain, there is a need for efficient webpage classification techniques. This research proposed a new approach tagged: SentiPosit-based method. SentiPosit-based method combines features of the Posit-based method and the Sentistrenght-based method for classification of terrorism and extremism webpages. The experiment was carried out on 7500 webpages obtained through TENE-webcrawler by International Cyber Crime Research Centre (ICCRC). The webpages were manually grouped into three classes which include the ‘pro-extremist’, ‘anti-extremist’ and ‘neutral’ with 2500 webpages in each category. A supervised learning algorithm is then applied on the classified dataset in order to build the model. Results obtained was compared with existing classification method using the prediction accuracy and runtime. It was observed that our proposed hybrid approach produced a better classification accuracy compared to existing approaches within a reasonable runtime.

Keywords: sentiposit, classification, extremism, terrorism

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Authors: S. M. Javad Davoodi, Mojtaba Shourian

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Groundwater table close to the ground surface causes major problems in construction and mining operation. One of the methods to control groundwater in such cases is using pumping wells. These pumping wells remove excess water from the site project and lower the water table to a desirable value. Although the efficiency of this method is acceptable, it needs high expenses to apply. It means even small improvement in a design of pumping wells can lead to substantial cost savings. In order to minimize the total cost in the method of pumping wells, a simulation-optimization approach is applied. The proposed model integrates MODFLOW as the simulation model with Firefly as the optimization algorithm. In fact, MODFLOW computes the drawdown due to pumping in an aquifer and the Firefly algorithm defines the optimum value of design parameters which are numbers, pumping rates and layout of the designing wells. The developed Firefly-MODFLOW model is applied to minimize the cost of the dewatering project for the ancient mosque of Kerman city in Iran. Repetitive runs of the Firefly-MODFLOW model indicates that drilling two wells with the total rate of pumping 5503 m3/day is the result of the minimization problem. Results show that implementing the proposed solution leads to at least 1.5 m drawdown in the aquifer beneath mosque region. Also, the subsidence due to groundwater depletion is less than 80 mm. Sensitivity analyses indicate that desirable groundwater depletion has an enormous impact on total cost of the project. Besides, in a hypothetical aquifer decreasing the hydraulic conductivity contributes to decrease in total water extraction for dewatering.

Keywords: groundwater dewatering, pumping wells, simulation-optimization, MODFLOW, firefly algorithm

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Authors: Sufrin Hannan, Budi Suharjo, Rita Nurmalina, Kirbrandoko

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The challenge for independent surveyor service companies now is growing with increasing uncertainty in business. Protection from the government for domestic independent surveyor industry from competitor attack, such as entering the global surveyors to Indonesia also no longer exists. Therefore, building customer loyalty becomes very important to create a long-term relationship between an independent surveyor with its customers. This study aims to develop a model that can be used to build customer loyalty by looking at various factors that determine customer loyalty, especially on independent surveyors for coal inspection in Indonesia. The development of this model uses the relationship marketing approach. Testing of the hypothesis is done by testing the variables that determine customer loyalty, either directly or indirectly, which amounted to 10 variables. The data were collected from 200 questionnaires filled by independent surveyor company decision makers from 51 exporting companies and coal trading companies in Indonesia and analyzed using Structural Equation Model (SEM). The results show that customer loyalty of independent surveyors is influenced by customer satisfaction, trust, switching-barrier, and relationship-bond. Research on customer satisfaction shows that customer satisfaction is influenced by the perceived quality and perceived value, while perceived quality is influenced by reliability, assurance, responsiveness, and empathy.

Keywords: relationship marketing, customer loyalty, customer satisfaction, switching barriers, relationship bonds

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Authors: Aisling Gough, Ruth F. Hunter, Jianjun Tang, Sarah F. Brennan, Oliver Smith, Mark A. Tully, Chris Patterson, Alberto Longo, George Hutchinson, Lindsay Prior, David French, Jean Adams, Emma McIntosh, Frank Kee

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Background: As a large proportion of the UK workforce is employed in sedentary occupations, worksite interventions have the potential to contribute significantly to the health of the population. The UK Government is currently encouraging the use of financial incentives to promote healthier lifestyles but there is a dearth of evidence regarding the effectiveness and sustainability of incentive schemes to promote physical activity in the workplace. Methods: A large cluster RCT is currently underway, incorporating nested behavioural economic field experiments and process evaluation, to evaluate the effectiveness of a Physical Activity Loyalty Scheme. Office-based employees were recruited from large public sector organisations in Lisburn and Belfast (Northern Ireland) and randomised to an Intervention or Control group. Participants in the Intervention Group were encouraged to take part in 150 minutes of physical activity per week through provision of financial incentives (retailer vouchers) to those who met physical activity targets throughout the course of the 6 month intervention. Minutes of physical activity were monitored when participants passed by sensors (holding a keyfob) placed along main walking routes, parks and public transport stops nearby their workplace. Participants in the Control Group will complete the same outcome assessments (waiting-list control). The primary outcome is steps per day measured via pedometers (7 days). Secondary outcomes include health and wellbeing (Short Form-8, EuroQol-5D-5L, Warwick Edinburgh Mental Well Being Scale), and work absenteeism and presenteeism. Data will be collected at baseline, 6, 12 and 18 months. Information on PAL card & website usage, voucher downloads and redemption of vouchers will also be collected as part of a comprehensive process evaluation. Results: In total, 853 participants have been recruited from 9 workplaces in Lisburn, 12 buildings within the Stormont Estate, Queen’s University Belfast and Belfast City Hospital. Participants have been randomised to intervention and control groups. Baseline and 6-month data for the Physical Activity Loyalty Scheme has been collected. Findings regarding the effectiveness of the intervention from the 6-month follow-up data will be presented. Discussion: This study will address the gap in knowledge regarding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a workplace-based financial incentive scheme to promote a healthier lifestyle. As the UK workforce is increasingly sedentary, workplace-based physical activity interventions have significant potential in terms of encouraging employees to partake in physical activity during the working day which could lead to substantial improvements in physical activity levels overall. Implications: If a workplace based physical activity intervention such as this proves to be both effective and cost-effective, there is great potential to contribute significantly to the health and wellbeing of the workforce in the future. Workplace-based physical activity interventions have the potential to improve the physical and mental health of employees which may in turn lead to economic benefits for the employer, such as reduction in rates of absenteeism and increased productivity.

Keywords: behaviour change, cluster randomised controlled trial, loyalty scheme, physical activity

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

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The current study follows an educational intervention on bottle-weaning to simultaneously evaluate the effect of the bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months. A shared parameter model and a random effects model are used to jointly model bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake. We show in the two joint models that the bottle-weaning intervention promotes bottleweaning, and reduces daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles and daily energy intake. We also show that the odds of drinking from a bottle were positively associated with the amount of milk intake from bottles and increased daily milk intake from bottles was associated with increased daily energy intake. The effect of bottle use on daily energy intake is through its effect on increasing daily milk intake from bottles that in turn increases daily energy intake.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, joint model, gamma regression, shared parameter model, random effects model

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Authors: Asma Shaheen, Javed Iqbal

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The water resources are depleting due to an intrusion of industrial pollution. There are clusters of industries including leather tanning, textiles, batteries, and chemical causing contamination. These industries use bulk quantity of water and discharge it with toxic effluents. The penetration of heavy metals through irrigation from industrial effluent has toxic effect on soil and groundwater. There was strong positive significant correlation between all the heavy metals in three media of industrial effluent, soil and groundwater (P < 0.001). The metal to the metal association was supported by dendrograms using cluster analysis. The geospatial variability was assessed by using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and pollution model to identify the simulation of carcinogenic elements in soil and groundwater. The principal component analysis identified the metals source, 48.8% variation in factor 1 have significant loading for sodium (Na), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), iron (Fe), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) of tannery effluent-based process. In soil and groundwater, the metals have significant loading in factor 1 representing more than half of the total variation with 51.3 % and 53.6 % respectively which showed that pollutants in soil and water were driven by industrial effluent. The cumulative eigen values for the three media were also found to be greater than 1 representing significant clustering of related heavy metals. The results showed that heavy metals from industrial processes are seeping up toxic trace metals in the soil and groundwater. The poisonous pollutants from heavy metals turned the fresh resources of groundwater into unusable water. The availability of fresh water for irrigation and domestic use is being alarming.

Keywords: groundwater, geostatistical, heavy metals, industrial effluent

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Authors: Rabia Waseem, Low Kah Hin, Najihah Mohamed Hashim

Abstract:

The variability in the chemical components of the Syzygium species essential oils has been evaluated. The leaves of Syzygium species have been collected from Perak, Malaysia. The essential oils extracted by using the conventional Hydro-distillation extraction procedure and analyzed by using Gas chromatography System attached with Mass Spectrometry (GCMS). Twenty-seven constituents were found in Syzygium species in which the major constituents include: α-Pinene (3.94%), α-Thujene (2.16%), α-Terpineol (2.95%), g-Elemene (2.89%) and D-Limonene (14.59%). The aim of this study was the comparison between the evaluated data and existing literature to fortify the major variability through statistical analysis.

Keywords: chemotaxonomy, cluster analysis, essential oil, medicinal plants, statistical analysis

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Authors: Girts Zageris, Vadims Geza, Andris Jakovics

Abstract:

Gasification processes are of great interest due to their generation of renewable energy in the form of syngas from biodegradable waste. It is, therefore, important to study the factors that play a role in the efficiency of gasification and the longevity of the machines in which gasification takes place. This study focuses on the latter, aiming to optimize an entrained-flow gasifier by reducing slag formation on its walls to reduce maintenance costs. A CFD mathematical model for an entrained-flow gasifier is constructed – the model of an actual gasifier is rendered in 3D and appropriately meshed. Then, the turbulent gas flow in the gasifier is modeled with the realizable k-ε approach, taking devolatilization, combustion and coal gasification into account. Various such simulations are conducted, obtaining results for different air inlet positions and by tracking particles of varying sizes undergoing devolatilization and gasification. The model identifies potential problematic zones where most particles collide with the gasifier walls, indicating risk regions where ash deposits could most likely form. In conclusion, the effects on the formation of an ash layer of air inlet positioning and particle size allowed in the main gasifier tank are discussed, and possible solutions for decreasing a number of undesirable deposits are proposed. Additionally, an estimate of the impact of different factors such as temperature, gas properties and gas content, and different forces acting on the particles undergoing gasification is given.

Keywords: biomass particles, gasification, slag formation, turbulence k-ε modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Maslan Lamria, Ralph E. H. Sims, Tatang H. Soerawidjaja

Abstract:

In increasing its self-sufficiency on transportation fuel, Indonesia is currently developing commercial production and use of drop-in biofuel (DBF) from vegetable oil. To maximize the level of success, it is necessary to get insights on how the implementation would develop as well as any important factors. This study assessed the dynamics of transition from existing fossil fuel system to a renewable fuel system, which involves the transition from existing biodiesel to projected DBF. A systems dynamics approach was applied and a model developed to simulate the dynamics of liquid biofuel transition. The use of palm oil feedstock was taken as a case study to assess the projected DBF implementation by 2045. The set of model indicators include liquid fuel self-sufficiency, liquid biofuel share, foreign exchange savings and green-house gas emissions reduction. The model outputs showed that supports on DBF investment and use play an important role in the transition progress. Given assumptions which include application of a maximum level of supports over time, liquid fuel self-sufficiency would be still unfulfilled in which palm biofuel contribution is 0.2. Thus, other types of feedstock such as algae and oil feedstock from marginal lands need to be developed synergically. Regarding support on DBF use, this study recommended that removal of fossil subsidy would be necessary prior to applying a carbon tax policy effectively.

Keywords: biofuel, drop-in biofuel, energy transition, liquid fuel

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Authors: Gabriela Estrada, Joaquim Lloveras

Abstract:

Design for error-proofing assembly is a new DFX approach to prevent assembly issues since early design stages. Assembly issues that can happen during the life phases of a system such as: production, installation, operation, and replacement phases. This prevention is possible by designing the product with poka-yoke or error-proofing characteristics. This approach guide designers to make decisions based on poka-yoke assembly design requirements. As a result of applying these requirements designers are able to create solutions to prevent assembly issues for the product in development stage. This paper integrates the needs to design products in an error proofing way into the systematic approach of design process by Pahl and Beitz. A case study is presented applying this approach.

Keywords: poka-yoke, error-proofing, assembly issues, design process, life phases of a system

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Gabriela Estrada, Joaquim Lloveras

Abstract:

Design for error-proofing assembly is a new DFX approach to prevent assembly issues since early design stages. Assembly issues that can happen during the life phases of a system such as: production, installation, operation and replacement phases. This prevention is possible by designing the product with poka-yoke or error-proofing characteristics. This approach guide designers to make decisions based on poka-yoke assembly design requirements. As a result of applying these requirements designers are able to create solutions to prevent assembly issues for the product in development stage. This paper integrates the needs to design products in an error proofing way into the systematic approach of design process by Pahl and Beitz. A case study is presented applying this approach.

Keywords: poka-yoke, error-proofing, assembly issues, design process, life phases of a system

Procedia PDF Downloads 323