Search results for: long acting

Authors: Naylya Djumaeva

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Since the end of 2019, the world has been shaken by an infection that has claimed the lives of more than six and a half million patients. Currently, SARS-CoV-2 not only causes acute damage but has long-term consequences affecting every organ and has brought a wave of a new chronic disabling condition called Long-Covid..This preliminary study describes an application of un-explored properties of low-level laser radiation with laser- light emitter in the field of which is placed Copegus (Ribavirin) with the aim of treatment of patients with Long-Covid syndrome. The difference from the traditional use of the drug is that Copegus was not prescribed to the patient by the traditional method - orally or intravenously, and the medicinal properties of the drug were introduced into the patient’s body using the un-explored properties of low-power laser radiation. Ninety eight patients with Long- Covid syndrome were observed. The obtained findings suggest that under the influence of the field formed into the laser- light emitter with a Copegus placed inside the field, the remote transfer of pharmacological properties of Сopegus occurs. Conclusions about the produced effect of exposure were made based on improvement in the condition of patients, the disappearance of complaints, and positive changes in various diagnostic tests performed by the patients. Biography: Djumaeva N completed her PhD from the Institute of Epidemiology, Microbiology and Infectious Diseases in 2000. In her dissertation work devoted to the treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection, she presented data on the possible influence of Complex Homeopathic Preparations on the organization of bound intracellular water in the cells of the body. She is the Consultant (Neurologist) at the Scientific-Research Institute for Virology, Uzbekistan, and an expert in “medicament testing” method (30 years). She has published 43 papers, including 2 patents.

Keywords: long covid, low level laser, copegus, laser- light emmiter

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Authors: Daniel Pastor, Hyo-Sang Shin

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This paper presents a novel method to use optical flow navigation for long-term navigation. Unlike standard SLAM approaches for augmented reality, OFLAAM is designed for Micro Air Vehicles (MAV). It uses an optical flow camera pointing downwards, an IMU and a monocular camera pointing frontwards. That configuration avoids the expensive mapping and tracking of the 3D features. It only maps these features in a vocabulary list by a localization module to tackle the loss of the navigation estimation. That module, based on the well-established algorithm DBoW2, will be also used to close the loop and allow long-term navigation in confined areas. That combination of high-speed optical flow navigation with a low rate localization algorithm allows fully autonomous navigation for MAV, at the same time it reduces the overall computational load. This framework is implemented in ROS (Robot Operating System) and tested attached to a laptop. A representative scenarios is used to analyse the performance of the system.

Keywords: vision, UAV, navigation, SLAM

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Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of CO2 emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfil the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Oman using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for stationary, Johansen maximum likelihood method for co-integration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. All the variables in this study show very strong significant effects on GDP in the country for the long term. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests positive long-run causalities from CO2 emissions to GDP. Conversely, negative impacts of energy consumption on GDP are found to be significant in Oman during the period. In the short run, there exist negative unidirectional causalities among GDP, CO2 emissions and energy consumption running from GDP to CO2 emissions and from energy consumption to CO2 emissions. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use and economic output in Oman over of period 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Oman, time series analysis

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Authors: Zinaida I. Ivanova, Olga V. Yudenkova

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The article addresses the pressing need to implement the principle of the biosphere compatibility as the core prerequisite for sustainable development. The co-authors argue that a careful attitude towards the biosphere, termination of its overutilization, analysis of the ratio between the biospheric potential of a specific area and its population numbers, coupled with population regulation techniques represent the factors that may solve the problems of ecological depletion. However these problems may only be tackled through the employment of the high-quality human capital, capable of acting with account for the principles of nature conservation.

Keywords: biosphere compatibility, eco-centered conscience, human capital, sustainable development

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Authors: Christoph Schuler, Oriana Ponta

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Public Financial Management (PFM) reforms are promoted by various international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank, local development banks and the donor country community to strengthen governance and accountability in developing countries across the world. Reform efforts undertaken are often systematically measured against international best practice by the application of standardized analytical instruments such as the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Framework (PEFA) or the Poverty Reduction Action Plan (PARP). While those instruments analyze direct achievements of PFM reforms, the long-term benefits of such reforms for society remain untapped. This gives rise to the question why the concept of impact evaluation with its experimental or quasi-experimental settings in the form of randomized control trials has rarely been applied in the context of PFM reforms. To close this gap, this study provides examples where the concept of impact evaluation can be applied to PFM reforms and thereby shifting the focus from outcome towards a long-term impact. As it is a new approach, this study does not attempt to conduct a fully flagged impact evaluation of a certain PFM reform. However, it will outline, as a form of pre-test the applicability of the impact evaluation methodology in this context, for example, by more closely analyzing the commonly used indicators (for example within PEFA or PARP). This would mean to scrutinize these indicators as to how they were designed and how they are related to the long-term impact, they should be producing. The analysis of PFM reform indicators and their relation to long-term impacts should provide practitioners and scholars alike with new insights on how to strengthen the accountability of public service delivery through successful and sustainable PFM reforms.

Keywords: accountability, impact evaluation, PFM reforms, public financial management

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Authors: Hessam Mortezaei, Saeid Joudakian

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In this paper, the wear problem on rider rings of boil off gas compressor has been studied. This kind of oil free double acting compressor has free floating piston (FFP) technology and as a result of that it should have the lowest possible wear on its rider rings. But a design problem had caused a complete wear of rider rings after one month of continuous operation. In this case study, the source of this problem was recognized and solved.

Keywords: piston rider, rings, gas distribution, pressure wear

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Authors: Mesbah Tarek, Kelaiaia Samia, Chiheb Sofien, Kelaiaia Mounia Samira, Labar Hocine

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Short circuit causes important damage in power systems. The aim of this paper is the investigation of the effect of short circuit at the AC side inverter in HVDC transmission line. The cutoff of HVDC transmission line implies important economic losses. In this paper it is proposed an efficient procedure which can protect and eliminate the fault quickly. The theoretical development and simulation are well detailed and illustrated.

Keywords: AC inverter, HVDC, short circuit, switcher gate, power system

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Authors: Ceshi Sun, Yueyu Zhao, Yaobing Zhao, Zhiqiang Wang, Jian Peng, Pengxin Guo

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With the rapid development of transportation, there are more than 100 cable-stayed bridges with main span larger than 300 m in China. In order to ascertain the statistical relationships among the design parameters of stay cables and their distribution characteristics, 1500 cables were selected from 25 practical long-span cable-stayed bridges. A new relationship between the first order frequency and the length of cable was found by conducting the curve fitting. Then, based on this relationship other interesting relationships were deduced. Several probability density functions (PDFs) were used to investigate the distributions of the parameters of first order frequency, stress level and the Irvine parameter. It was found that these parameters obey the Lognormal distribution, the Weibull distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution, respectively. Scatter diagrams of the three parameters were plotted and their 95% confidence intervals were also investigated.

Keywords: cable, cable-stayed bridge, long-span, statistical analysis

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Authors: David Loh, Wan Chee Wai, Pei Nan, Chen Zhe

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To increase the conveyance capacity to Western Singapore and to meet Singapore’s long-term water needs in a more cost-effective manner, four new transmission pipelines consisting of two 2200 mm diameter water pipes and two 1200mm diameter water pipes will be needed by 2024 to convey water from a Water Reclamation Plant to existing networks in the west region of Singapore. Out of the several possible routes studied, the most cost-effective and technically feasible route was selected to lay the proposed 1.6km-long pipelines that cross a channel via a 6m diameter subsea tunnel. This paper outlines the challenges the team faced throughout the project thus far. It also examined the difficulties such as (1) construction of a 56m-deep launching shaft near a highly sensitive 700mm diameter Gas Transmission Pipeline (GTP) and at a location with high groundwater; (2) manpower and supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic situation.

Keywords: underwater tunnel, subsea engineering, subsea tunnel construction, waterpipe construction

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Authors: Mohammad Moridzadeh, Mohammad Djavid, Barry Doyle

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An assessment of the long-term stability of a cavern in Chagrin shale excavated by the sequential excavation method was performed during and after construction. During the excavation of the cavern, deformations of rock mass were measured at the surface of excavation and within the rock mass by surface and deep measurement instruments. Rock deformations were measured during construction which appeared to result from the as-built excavation sequence that had potentially disturbed the rock and its behavior. Also some additional time dependent rock deformations were observed during and post excavation. Several opinions have been expressed to explain this time dependent deformation including stress changes induced by excavation, strain softening (or creep) in the beddings with and without clay and creep of the shaley rock under compressive stresses. In order to analyze and replicate rock behavior observed during excavation, including current and post excavation elastic, plastic, and time dependent deformation, Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was performed. The analysis was also intended to estimate long term deformation of the rock mass around the excavation. Rock mass behavior including time dependent deformation was measured by means of rock surface convergence points, MPBXs, extended creep testing on the long anchors, and load history data from load cells attached to several long anchors. Direct creep testing of Chagrin Shale was performed on core samples from the wall of the Pump Room. Results of these measurements were used to calibrate the FEA of the excavation. These analyses incorporate time dependent constitutive modeling for the rock to evaluate the potential long term movement in the roof, walls, and invert of the cavern. The modeling was performed due to the concerns regarding the unanticipated behavior of the rock mass as well as the forecast of long term deformation and stability of rock around the excavation.

Keywords: Cavern, Chagrin shale, creep, finite element.

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Authors: İrem Bulut, Mustafa Z. Söyük, Ertuğrul Yalçın, Simge Şişman-Bal

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Eyewitness testimony is one of the most frequently used methods in criminal cases for the determination of crime and perpetrator. In the literature, the number of studies about the reliability of eyewitness testimony is increasing. The study aims to reveal the factors that affect the short-term and long-term visual memory performance of the participants in the event of an accident. In this context, the effect of the emotional content of the accident and the sounds during the accident on visual memory performance was investigated with eye-tracking. According to the results, the presence of visual and auditory stimuli with emotional content during the accident decreases the participants' both short-term and long-term recall performance. Moreover, the data obtained from the eye monitoring device showed that the participants had difficulty in answering even the questions they focused on at the time of the accident.

Keywords: eye tracking, eyewitness testimony, long-term recall, short-term recall, visual memory

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Authors: M. H. M. Rashid

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A Banach space operator T obeys property (gm) if the isolated points of the spectrum σ(T) of T which are eigenvalues are exactly those points λ of the spectrum for which T − λI is a left Drazin invertible. In this article, we study the stability of property (gm), for a bounded operator acting on a Banach space, under perturbation by finite rank operators, by nilpotent operators, by quasi-nilpotent operators, or more generally by algebraic operators commuting with T.

Keywords: Weyl's Theorem, Weyl Spectrum, Polaroid operators, property (gm)

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Authors: Christian Klettner, Ian Eames, Tristan Robinson

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Tsunami is characterised by their very long time periods and can have devastating consequences when these inundate through built-up coastal regions as in the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Tsunami. This work aims to investigate the effect of these long waves on the flow through and around a group of buildings, which are abstracted to circular cylinders. The research approach used in this study was using experiments and numerical simulations. Large-scale experiments were carried out at HR Wallingford. The novelty of these experiments is (I) the number of bodies present (up to 64), (II) the long wavelength of the input waves (80 seconds) and (III) the width of the tank (4m) which gives the unique opportunity to investigate three length scales, namely the diameter of the building, the diameter of the array and the width of the tank. To complement the experiments, dam break flow past the same arrays is investigated using three-dimensional numerical simulations in OpenFOAM. Dam break flow was chosen as it is often used as a surrogate for the tsunami in previous research and is used here as there are well defined initial conditions and high quality previous experimental data for the case of a single cylinder is available. The focus of this work is to better understand the effect of the solid void fraction on the force and flow through and around the array. New qualitative and quantitative diagnostics are developed and tested to analyse the complex coupled interaction between the cylinders.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, tsunami, forces, complex geometry

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Authors: Salako Rotimi, Oshungade Stephen, Ojewoye Opeyemi

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The maintenance of price stability is one of the macroeconomic challenges facing Nigeria as a nation. This paper attempts to build a co-integration multivariate time series model for inflation movement in Nigeria using data extracted from the abstract of statistics of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 2008 to 2017. The Johansen cointegration test suggests at least one co-integration vector describing the long run relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI), Food Price Index (FPI) and Non-Food Price Index (NFPI). All three series show increasing pattern, which indicates a sign of non-stationary in each of the series. Furthermore, model predictability was established with root-mean-square-error, mean absolute error, mean average percentage error, and Theil’s unbiased statistics for n-step forecasting. The result depicts that the long run coefficient of a consumer price index (CPI) has a positive long-run relationship with the food price index (FPI) and non-food price index (NFPI).

Keywords: economic, inflation, model, series

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Authors: Jamel Boukhatem, Semia Rachid, Marmar Nasr

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Considering the differences between oil- and non-oil-producing countries, this paper aims to evaluate the impact of financial development (FD) and institutional quality (IQ) on CO2 emissions in 15 MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries over the period 1996-2018 using the Panel ARDL approach. We found evidence to support an unconditional long run effect of FD on environmental conditions (EC), with quite significant differences between the two groups of countries. While FD leads to environmental degradation (ED) in non-oil-producing countries, it helps protect the environment in oil-producing ones. Regarding the effects of IQ on EC, they are not significant in both short- and long run for non-oil-producing countries, but they are significant for oil-producing ones only in the long run. In the short run, IQ indicators haven’t significant effects on EC for the two groups of countries.

Keywords: financial development, institutional quality, environmental conditions, Panel ARDL

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Authors: Maria Da Glória Diniz De Almeida, Andreia M. P. Salgado

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This paper aims to present the creation of a mentoring program to be applied in developing future junior industrial engineers acting professionally. Its objective is to contribute to a better professional performance as engineers. It is a case-study for the RIP region (including the cities of Resende, Itatiaia and Porto Real), which is located in an industrial area in Rio de Janeiro State, in Brazil. As a result, 87% of mentors and mentees approved the program as efficient, based on the initial targets.

Keywords: mentoring program, mentors and mentees, student professional development, young engineers education

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Authors: Chung-Yu Wu, Chia-Chi Chang, Wei-Ming Chen, Pu-Wei Wu, Shih-Fan Chen, Po-Chun Chen

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Electrostimulation medical devices for neural diseases require electroactive and biocompatible materials to transmit signals from electrodes to targeting tissues. Protection of surrounding tissues has become a great challenge for long-term implants. In this study, we designed back-end processes with compatible, efficient, and reliable advantages over the current state-of-the-art. We explored a hermetic packaging process with high quality of adhesion and uniformity as the biocompatible devices for long-term implantation. This approach is able to provide both excellent biocompatibility and protection to the biomedical electronic devices by performing conformal coating of biocompatible materials. We successfully developed a packaging process that is capable of exposing the stimulating electrode and cover all other faces of chip with high quality of protection to prevent leakage of devices and body fluid.

Keywords: biocompatible package, medical microelectronics, surface coating, long-term implantation

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Authors: Zdzislaw Kaminski, Zbigniew Czyz, Tytus Tulwin

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This paper describes the geometrical model, algorithm and CFD simulation of an airflow around a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine rotor. A solver, ANSYS Fluent, was applied for the numerical simulation. Numerical simulation, unlike experiments, enables us to validate project assumptions when it is designed to avoid a costly preparation of a model or a prototype for a bench test. This research focuses on the rotor designed according to patent no PL 219985 with its blades capable of modifying their working surfaces, i.e. absorbing wind kinetic energy. The operation of this rotor is based on a regulation of blade angle α between the top and bottom parts of blades mounted on an axis. If angle α increases, the working surface which absorbs wind kinetic energy also increases. CFD calculations enable us to compare aerodynamic characteristics of forces acting on rotor working surfaces and specify rotor operation parameters like torque or turbine assembly power output. This paper is part of the research to improve an efficiency of a rotor assembly and it contains investigation of the impact of a blade angle of wind turbine working blades on the power output as a function of rotor torque, specific rotational speed and wind speed. The simulation was made for wind speeds ranging from 3.4 m/s to 6.2 m/s and blade angles of 30°, 60°, 90°. The simulation enables us to create a mathematical model to describe how aerodynamic forces acting each of the blade of the studied rotor are generated. Also, the simulation results are compared with the wind tunnel ones. This investigation enables us to estimate the growth in turbine power output if a blade angle changes. The regulation of blade angle α enables a smooth change in turbine rotor power, which is a kind of safety measures if the wind is strong. Decreasing blade angle α reduces the risk of damaging or destroying a turbine that is still in operation and there is no complete rotor braking as it is in other Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines. This work has been financed by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, mathematical model, numerical analysis, power, renewable energy, wind turbine

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Authors: D. S. Mohale, A.V. Chandewar

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Study was undertaken to investigate the effect of imipramine on various biochemical parameters and oxidative stress markers in short and long term depression on rats. Rats were subjected for short (21 days) and long term (84 days) social isolation for and checked for depression on force swim test and tail suspension method. Various markers of oxidative stress like lipid peroxidation (LPO), reduced glutathione (GSH), Supersoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and biochemical parameters like Serum glutamate oxaloacetate transaminase (SGOT), Serum glutamate pyruate transaminase (SGPT), and blood glucose were determined in depressed, control, imipramine and Vitamin E treated group. The rats displayed an increase in depression on force swim test and tail suspension method relative to control. There was significant increase in the level of LPO and decrease in the levels of GSH, SOD and CAT after short and long term depression. Increased oxidative stress in depression which may leads to alteration of biochemical parameters. Treatment with imipramine an tricyclic antidepressant significantly decreases in level of LPO, SGOT, SGPT and increase in the levels of GSH, SOD and CAT in long term depression.

Keywords: depression, oxidative stress, lipid peroxidation, reduced glutathione

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Authors: Parth Prajapati, A. R. Srinivas

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The purpose of this paper is to validate the concept of the Lotus Mechanism using Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) tools considering the statics and dynamics through actual time dependence involving inertial forces acting on the mechanism joints. For a 1.2 m mirror made of hexagonal segments, with simple harnesses and three-point supports, the maximum diameter is 400 mm, minimum segment base thickness is 1.5 mm, and maximum rib height is considered as 12 mm. Manufacturing challenges are explored for the segments using manufacturing research and development approaches to enable use of large lightweight mirrors required for the future space system.

Keywords: dynamics, manufacturing, reflectors, segmentation, statics

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Authors: Rongzhou Wang

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Research on designing nano-antibacterial agent with potent and long-lasting antibacterial property is demanding and provoking work. In this study, a core-shell AgBr/cationic polymer nanocomposite (AgBr/NPVP-H10) were synthesized and its structure confirmed by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer (FT-IR), Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (1H NMR) and X-ray diffraction (XRD), and the cationic polymer contents were determined with Thermal Gravimetric Analyzer (TGA). The morphology was directly observed by Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM) which showed that the nanoparticle contains single core and organic shell and had an average diameter of 30.1 nm. The antibacterial test against Gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus and Gram-negative Escherichia coli illuminated that this nanocomposite had potent bactericidal activity, which can be attributed to the contact-killing of cationic polymers and releasing-killing of Ag+ ions. In addition, cationic polymer encapsulating AgBr cores gave the resin discs sustained release of Ag+ ions, which may result in long-lasting bactericidal activity. The AgBr/NPVP-H10 nanoparticle with the dual bactericidal capability and long term antimicrobial effect is a promising material aimed at preventing bacterial infection.

Keywords: core-shell nanocomposite, cationic polymer, dual antibacterial capability, long-lasting antibacterial activity

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Authors: Mrinalini Ranjan, Sudheesh Chethil

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Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder characterised by the recurrence of seizures. Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals are complex biomedical signals which exhibit nonlinear and nonstationary behavior. We use two methods 1) Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and 2) Recurrence Plots (RP) to capture this complex behavior of EEG signals. DFA considers fluctuation from local linear trends. Scale invariance of these signals is well captured in the multifractal characterisation using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Analysis of long-range correlations is vital for understanding the dynamics of EEG signals. Correlation properties in the EEG signal are quantified by the calculation of a scaling exponent. We report the existence of two scaling behaviours in the epileptic EEG signals which quantify short and long-range correlations. To illustrate this, we perform DFA on extant ictal (seizure) and interictal (seizure free) datasets of different patients in different channels. We compute the short term and long scaling exponents and report a decrease in short range scaling exponent during seizure as compared to pre-seizure and a subsequent increase during post-seizure period, while the long-term scaling exponent shows an increase during seizure activity. Our calculation of long-term scaling exponent yields a value between 0.5 and 1, thus pointing to power law behaviour of long-range temporal correlations (LRTC). We perform this analysis for multiple channels and report similar behaviour. We find an increase in the long-term scaling exponent during seizure in all channels, which we attribute to an increase in persistent LRTC during seizure. The magnitude of the scaling exponent and its distribution in different channels can help in better identification of areas in brain most affected during seizure activity. The nature of epileptic seizures varies from patient-to-patient. To illustrate this, we report an increase in long-term scaling exponent for some patients which is also complemented by the recurrence plots (RP). RP is a graph that shows the time index of recurrence of a dynamical state. We perform Recurrence Quantitative analysis (RQA) and calculate RQA parameters like diagonal length, entropy, recurrence, determinism, etc. for ictal and interictal datasets. We find that the RQA parameters increase during seizure activity, indicating a transition. We observe that RQA parameters are higher during seizure period as compared to post seizure values, whereas for some patients post seizure values exceeded those during seizure. We attribute this to varying nature of seizure in different patients indicating a different route or mechanism during the transition. Our results can help in better understanding of the characterisation of epileptic EEG signals from a nonlinear analysis.

Keywords: detrended fluctuation, epilepsy, long range correlations, recurrence plots

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Authors: Roham Rafiee, Behzad Mazhari

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Composite structures, having incredible properties, have gained considerable popularity in the last few decades. Among all types, polymer matrix composites are being used extensively due to their unique characteristics including low weight, convenient fabrication process and low cost. Having polymer as matrix, these type of composites show different creep behavior when compared to metals and even other types of composites since most polymers undergo creep even in room temperature. One of the most challenging topics in creep is to introduce new techniques for predicting long term creep behavior of materials. Depending on the material which is being studied the appropriate method would be different. Methods already proposed for predicting long term creep behavior of polymer matrix composites can be divided into five categories: (1) Analytical Modeling, (2) Empirical Modeling, (3) Superposition Based Modeling (Semi-empirical), (4) Rheological Modeling, (5) Finite Element Modeling. Each of these methods has individual characteristics. Studies have shown that none of the mentioned methods can predict long term creep behavior of all PMC composites in all circumstances (loading, temperature, etc.) but each of them has its own priority in different situations. The reason to this issue can be found in theoretical basis of these methods. In this study after a brief review over the background theory of each method, they are compared in terms of their applicability in predicting long-term behavior of composite structures. Finally, the explained materials are observed through some experimental studies executed by other researchers.

Keywords: creep, comparative study, modeling, composite materials

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Authors: N. Zerzouri, N. Benalia, N. Bensiali

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This work is devoted to an analysis of the operation of a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) integrated with a wind system. The power transfer between the stator and the network is carried out by acting on the rotor via a bidirectional signal converter. The analysis is devoted to the study of a fault in the converter due to an interruption of the control of a semiconductor. Simulation results obtained by the MATLAB/Simulink software illustrate the quality of the power generated at the default.

Keywords: doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), wind energy, PWM inverter, modeling

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Authors: Henrique Veras De Paiva Fonseca

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This paper investigates the long-term relationship between early life exposure to malaria and adult socioeconomic outcomes in Brazil. The identification strategy relies on exogenous variation in the risk of malaria outbreaks in different states and seasons of the year to identify early life exposure according to the timing and location of birth. Furthermore, Brazil has undergone a successful campaign of malaria eradication during the late 1950s, which allows for comparing outcomes of birth cohorts born just prior to and just after eradication to identify the extent of in utero exposure. Instrumental variables estimates find consistent negative treatment effects of in utero exposure to malaria on socioeconomic outcomes, such as educational attainment and health status. The effects are stronger for exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy than during other periods of gestation. Additionally, consistent with previous findings, men are more likely to exhibit larger long-term effects.

Keywords: malaria, exposure, eradication, instrumental variables, education, health

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Authors: Natalie M. Wride, Xueyu Geng

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Subgrade soils of railway infrastructure are subjected to a significant number of load applications over their design life. The use of slab track on existing and future proposed rail links requires a reduced maintenance and repair regime for the embankment subgrade, due to restricted access to the subgrade soils for remediation caused by cyclic deformation. It is, therefore, important to study the deformation behaviour of soft cohesive subsoils induced as a result of long term cyclic loading. In this study, a series of oedometer tests and cyclic triaxial tests (10,000 cycles) have been undertaken to investigate the undrained deformation behaviour of soft kaolin. X-ray Computer Tomography (CT) scanning of the samples has been performed to determine the change in porosity and soil structure density from the sample microstructure as a result of the laboratory testing regime undertaken. Combined with the examination of excess pore pressures and strains obtained from the cyclic triaxial tests, the results are compared with an existing analytical solution for long term settlement considering repeated low amplitude loading. Modifications to the analytical solution are presented based on the laboratory analysis that shows good agreement with further test data.

Keywords: creep, cyclic loading, deformation, long term settlement, train loading

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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Authors: Zbigniew Czyz, Pawel Magryta, Mateusz Paszko

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The paper discusses the status of loads acting on the drive unit of the unmanned helicopter during deceleration to dash maneuver. Special attention was given for the loads of bearings in the gas generator turbine engine, in which will be equipped a helicopter. The analysis was based on the speed changes as a function of time for manned flight of helicopter PZL W3-Falcon. The dependence of speed change during the flight was approximated by the least squares method and then determined for its changes in acceleration. This enabled us to specify the forces acting on the bearing of the gas generator in static and dynamic conditions. Deceleration to dash maneuvers occurs in steady flight at a speed of 222 km/h by horizontal braking and acceleration. When the speed reaches 92 km/h, it dynamically changes an inclination of the helicopter to the maximum acceleration and power to almost maximum and holds it until it reaches its initial speed. This type of maneuvers are used due to ineffective shots at significant cruising speeds. It is, therefore, important to reduce speed to the optimum as soon as possible and after giving a shot to return to the initial speed (cruising). In deceleration to dash maneuvers, we have to deal with the force of gravity of the rotor assembly, gas aerodynamics forces and the forces caused by axial acceleration during this maneuver. While we can assume that the working components of the gas generator are designed so that axial gas forces they create could balance the aerodynamic effects, the remaining ones operate with a value that results from the motion profile of the aircraft. Based on the analysis, we can make a compilation of the results. For this maneuver, the force of gravity (referring to statistical calculations) respectively equals for bearing A = 5.638 N and bearing B = 1.631 N. As overload coefficient k in this direction is 1, this force results solely from the weight of the rotor assembly. For this maneuver, the acceleration in the longitudinal direction achieved value a_max = 4.36 m/s2. Overload coefficient k is, therefore, 0.44. When we multiply overload coefficient k by the weight of all gas generator components that act on the axial bearing, the force caused by axial acceleration during deceleration to dash maneuver equals only 3.15 N. The results of the calculations are compared with other maneuvers such as acceleration and deceleration and jump up and jump down maneuvers. This work has been financed by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

Keywords: gas bearings, helicopters, helicopter maneuvers, turbine engines

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Authors: Mats Nilsson

Abstract:

The European electricity markets have been changing from a regulated market, to in some places a deregulated market, and are now experiencing a strong influence of renewable support systems. Firm’s that rely on subsidies have a different business logic than firms acting in a market context. The article proposes that an offspring to the regular business models, the business-to-citizen, should be used. The case of the European electricity market frames the concept of a business-citizen business model, and a research agenda for this concept is outlined.

Keywords: business logic, business model, subsidies, business-to-citizen

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Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Sima Mohamadi Amidabadi, Amir Mohamadi Nejad, Farahnaz Nekoofar

Abstract:

As a result of uncertainty and doubts about the quantity of agricultural products, greater significance has been attached to risk management in the agricultural sector. Normally, farmers seek to minimize risks, and crop diversity has always been a means to reduce risk. The study at hand seeks to explore the long-term impact of crop diversity on income risk reduction. The timeframe of the study is 1998 to 2018. Initially, the Herfindahl index was used to estimate crop diversity in different periods, and next, the Hodrick-Prescott filter was applied to estimate income risk both in nominal and real terms. Finally, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the long-term impact of crop diversity on two modes of risk for the farmer's income has been estimated. Given the long-term pattern’s results, it is evident that in the long-run, crop diversity can reduce income fluctuations in two nominal and real terms. Moreover, results showed that in case the fluctuation shock affects the agricultural income in the short run, to balance out the shock in nominal and real terms, 4 and 3 cycles are needed respectively. In other words, in each cycle, 25% and 33% of the shock impact can be removed, respectively. Thus, as the results of the error correction coefficient showed, policies need to be put in place to prevent income shocks. In case of a shock, they need to be balanced out in a four-year period, taking inflation into account, and in a three-year period irrespective of the inflation and reparative policies such as insurance services should be developed.

Keywords: risk, long-term model, Herfindahl index, time series model, vector error correction model

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