Search results for: health model

Authors: Anna Avramenko, Heikki Haario

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This paper reports the development and application of a 2D depth-averaged model. The main goal of this contribution is to apply the depth averaged equations to a wind park model in which the treatment of the geometry, introduced on the mathematical model by the mass and momentum source terms. The depth-averaged model will be used in future to find the optimal position of wind turbines in the wind park. K-E and 2D LES turbulence models were consider in this article. 2D CFD simulations for one hill was done to check the depth-averaged model in practise.

Keywords: depth-averaged equations, numerical modeling, CFD, wind park model

Procedia PDF Downloads 603

Authors: Jui-Ching Chou

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Numerical simulation is a popular method used to evaluate the effects of soil liquefaction on a structure or the effectiveness of a mitigation plan. Many constitutive models (UBCSAND model, PM4 model, SANISAND model, etc.) were presented to model the liquefaction phenomenon. In general, inputs of a constitutive model need to be calibrated against the soil cyclic resistance before being applied to the numerical simulation model. Then, simulation results can be compared with results from simplified liquefaction potential assessing methods. In this article, inputs of the UBCSAND model, a simple elastic-plastic stress-strain model, are calibrated against several popular generic liquefaction triggering curves of simplified liquefaction potential assessing methods via FLAC program. Calibrated inputs can provide engineers to perform a preliminary evaluation of an existing structure or a new design project.

Keywords: calibration, liquefaction, numerical simulation, UBCSAND Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Mahmoud M. AbuAlSamen, Tamam El-Elimat

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Amid the economic crisis in Jordan, the Jordanian government has opted for a knowledge economy where education is promoted as a mean for economic development. University education usually comes at the expense of study-related stress that may adversely impact the health of students. Since stress is a latent variable that is difficult to measure, a valid tool should be used in doing so. The effort-reward imbalance (ERI) is a model used as a measurement tool for occupational stress. The model was built on the notion of reciprocity, which relates ‘effort’ to ‘reward’ through the mediating ‘over-commitment’. Reciprocity assumes equilibrium between both effort and reward, where ‘high’ effort is adequately compensated with ‘high’ reward. When this equilibrium is violated (i.e., high effort with low reward), this may elicit negative emotions and stress, which have been correlated to adverse health conditions. The theory of ERI was established in many different parts of the world, and associations with chronic diseases and the health of workers were explored at length. While much of the effort-reward imbalance was investigated in work conditions, there has been a growing interest in understanding the validity of the ERI model when applied to other social settings such as schools and universities. The ERI questionnaire was developed in Arabic recently to measure ERI among high school teachers. However, little information is available on the validity of the ERI questionnaire in university students. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 833 students in Jordan to measure the validity and reliability of the ERI questionnaire in Arabic among university students. Reliability, as measured by Cronbach’s alpha of the effort, reward, and overcommitment scales, was 0.73, 0.76, and 0.69, respectively, suggesting satisfactory reliability. The factorial structure was explored using principal axis factoring. The results fitted a five-solution model where both the effort and overcommitment were uni-dimensional while the reward scale was three-dimensional with its factors, namely being ‘support’, ‘esteem’, and ‘security’. The solution explained 56% of the variance in the data. The established ERI theory was replicated with excellent validity in this study. The effort-reward ratio in university students was 1.19, which suggests a slight degree of failed reciprocity. The study also investigated the association of effort, reward, overcommitment, and ERI with participants’ demographic factors and self-reported health. ERI was found to be significantly associated with absenteeism (p < 0.0001), past history of failed courses (p=0.03), and poor academic performance (p < 0.001). Moreover, ERI was found to be associated with poor self-reported health among university students (p=0.01). In conclusion, the Arabic ERI questionnaire is reliable and valid for use in measuring effort-reward imbalance in university students in Jordan. The results of this research are important in informing higher education policy in Jordan.

Keywords: effort-reward imbalance, factor analysis, validity, self-reported health

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Xin Chen, Xiao Yang, Rongrong Han, Lu Chen, Lingling Gao

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Background: Leisure time physical activity (LTPA) benefits both pregnant women and their fetuses. The guidelines recommended that pregnant women should do at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity aerobic physical activity throughout the week. The aim of this study was to investigate the rate of LTPA participation among Chinese pregnant women and to identify its predictors based on the health belief model. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from June 2019 to September 2019 in Changchun, China. A total of 225 pregnant women aged 18 years or older with no severe physical or mental disease were recruited in the obstetric clinic. Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect data. LTPA was assessed by a pregnant physical activity questionnaire (PPAQ). A revised pregnancy physical activity health belief scale and social-demographic and perinatal characteristics factors were collected and used to predict LTPA participation. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression. Results: The participants had a high level of perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefits, and action clues, with mean item scores above 3.5. The predictors of LTPA in Chinese pregnant women were pre-pregnancy exercise habits [OR 3.236 (95% CI:1.632, 6.416)], perceived susceptibility score [OR 2.083 (95% CI:1.002, 4.331)], and perceived barriers score [OR 3.113 (95%CI:1.462, 6.626)]. Conclusions: The results of this study will lead to better identification of pregnant women who may not participate in LTPA. Healthcare professionals should be cognizant of issues that may affect LTPA participation among pregnant women, including pre-pregnancy exercise habits, perceived susceptibility, and perceived barriers.

Keywords: pregnancy, health belief model., leisure time physical activity, factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

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Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies.

Keywords: runoff, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

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Authors: Mukesh A. Modi

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High-nitrate concentration in groundwater of unconfined aquifers has been a serious issue for public health risk at a global scale. Various anthropogenic activities in agricultural land and urban land of alluvial soil have been observed to be responsible for the increment of nitrate in groundwater. The present study was designed to identify suitable denitrification strategies to minimize the effects of high nitrate in groundwater near the Mahi River of Vadodara block, Gujarat. There were 11 wells of Jal Jeevan Mission, Ministry of Jal Shakti, along with 3 observation wells of Gujarat Water Resources Development Corporation have been used for the duration of 21 years. MODFLOW and MT3DMS codes have been used to simulate solute transport phenomena along with attempted effectively for optimization. Current research is one step ahead by optimizing various denitrification strategies with the simulation of the model. The in-situ and ex-situ denitrification strategies viz. NAS (No Action Scenario), CAS (Crop Alternation Scenario), PS (Phytoremediation Scenario), and CAS + PS (Crop Alternation Scenario + Phytoremediation Scenario) have been selected for the optimization. The groundwater model simulates the most suitable denitrification strategy considering the hydrogeological characteristics at the targeted well.

Keywords: groundwater, high nitrate, MODFLOW, MT3DMS, optimization, denitrification strategy

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Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

Procedia PDF Downloads 548

Authors: Jalal Abdulkareem Sultan, Abdulhakeem Luqman Hasan

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With the development of health care systems competition, hospitals face more and more pressures. Meanwhile, resource allocation has a vital effect on achieving competitive advantages in hospitals. Selecting the appropriate number of beds is one of the most important sections in hospital management. However, in real situation, bed allocation selection is a multiple objective problem about different items with vagueness and randomness of the data. It is very complex. Hence, research about bed allocation problem is relatively scarce under considering multiple departments, nursing hours, and stochastic information about arrival and service of patients. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy multiobjective bed allocation model for overcoming uncertainty and multiple departments. Fuzzy objectives and weights are simultaneously applied to help the managers to select the suitable beds about different departments. The proposed model is solved by using Artificial Bee Colony (ABC), which is a very effective algorithm. The paper describes an application of the model, dealing with a public hospital in Iraq. The results related that fuzzy multi-objective model was presented suitable framework for bed allocation and optimum use.

Keywords: bed allocation problem, fuzzy logic, artificial bee colony, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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SEM analysis is a complex multivariate analysis because it involves a number of exogenous and endogenous variables that are interconnected to form a model. The measurement model is divided into two, namely, the reflective model (reflecting) and the formative model (forming). Before carrying out further tests on SEM, there are assumptions that must be met, namely the linearity assumption, to determine the form of the relationship. There are three modeling approaches to path analysis, including parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches. The aim of this research is to develop semiparametric SEM and obtain the best model. The data used in the research is secondary data as the basis for the process of obtaining simulation data. Simulation data was generated with various sample sizes of 100, 300, and 500. In the semiparametric SEM analysis, the form of the relationship studied was determined, namely linear and quadratic and determined one and two knot points with various levels of error variance (EV=0.5; 1; 5). There are three levels of closeness of relationship for the analysis process in the measurement model consisting of low (0.1-0.3), medium (0.4-0.6) and high (0.7-0.9) levels of closeness. The best model lies in the form of the relationship X1Y1 linear, and. In the measurement model, a characteristic of the reflective model is obtained, namely that the higher the closeness of the relationship, the better the model obtained. The originality of this research is the development of semiparametric SEM, which has not been widely studied by researchers.

Keywords: semiparametric SEM, measurement model, structural model, reflective model, formative model

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Authors: Kyung-Sook Bang

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Background: The health status of school-age children has a great influence on their growth and life-long health. The purposes of this study were to identify physical and mental health status of late school-age children in Seoul, South Korea and to investigate the related factors for their health. Methods: After gaining the approval from Institutional Review Board (IRB), a cross-sectional study was conducted with elementary students in grade 4 or 5. Questionnaires were distributed to eight elementary schools located different regions of Seoul in November, 2016, and 302 participants were finally included. From all participants, informed consents from the parents, and assents from children were received. Children's socioeconomic status, family functioning, peer relations, physical health symptoms, and depression were measured with self-reported questionnaires. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, t-test, Pearson’s correlations, and multiple regression. Results: Children's physical health symptoms and depression were not significantly different, and only their peer relations were significantly different according to their socioeconomic status (t=-3.93, p<.001). Depression showed significant positive correlation with physical health symptoms (r=.720, p<.001) and negative correlations with family functioning (r=-.428, p<.001) and peer relations (r=-.775, p<.001). The multiple regression model, which explained 73.5% of variance, showed peer relations (r2 =.604), physical health symptoms (r2 change=.125), and family functioning (r2 change=.005) as significant predictors for depression. Only the peer relations was significant predictor for their physical health symptoms and explained 50.6% of it. Conclusions: The peer relations was the most important factor in their physical and mental health at this age, and it can be affected by their socioeconomic status. Nursing interventions for promoting social relations and family functioning are required to improve children’s physical and mental health, especially for vulnerable population.

Keywords: child, depression, health, peer relation

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Ahmed Hamzi, Bryan Norman

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Having scribes help document patient records in electronic health record systems can improve hospitalists’ productivity. But hospitals need to determine the optimum number of scribes to hire to maximize scribe cost effectiveness. Scribe attendance uncertainty due to planned and unplanned absences is a primary challenge. This paper presents simulation and analytical models to determine the optimum number of scribes for a hospital to hire. Scribe staffing practices vary from one context to another; different staffing scenarios are considered where having extra attending scribes provides or does not provide additional value and utilizing on-call scribes to fill in for potentially absent scribes. These staffing scenarios are assessed for different scribe revenue ratios (ratio of the value of the scribe relative to scribe costs) ranging from 100% to 300%. The optimum solution depends on the absenteeism rate, revenue ratio, and desired service level. The analytical model obtains solutions easier and faster than the simulation model, but the simulation model is more accurate. Therefore, the analytical model’s solutions are compared with the simulation model’s solutions regarding both the number of scribes hired and cost-effectiveness. Additionally, an Excel tool has been developed to facilitate decision-makers in easily obtaining solutions using the analytical model.

Keywords: hospitalists, workload, optimization cost, economic analysis

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Authors: Eunji Choi, Borang Park, Youngjae Choi, Jinwoo Moon

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In this study, a predictive model for estimating the metabolism (MET) of human body was developed for the optimal control of indoor thermal environment. Human body images for indoor activities and human body joint coordinated values were collected as data sets, which are used in predictive model. A deep learning algorithm was used in an initial model, and its number of hidden layers and hidden neurons were optimized. Lastly, the model prediction performance was analyzed after the model being trained through collected data. In conclusion, the possibility of MET prediction was confirmed, and the direction of the future study was proposed as developing various data and the predictive model.

Keywords: deep learning, indoor quality, metabolism, predictive model

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

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We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

Procedia PDF Downloads 563

Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: T. Holecki, J. Wozniak-Holecka, P. Romaniuk

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Due to the highly centralized model of financing health care in Poland, local self-government rarely undertook their own initiatives in the field of public health, particularly health promotion. However, since 2017 the possibility of applying for a subsidy to health policy programs has been allowed, with the additional resources to be retrieved from the National Health Fund, which is the dominant payer in the health system. The amount of subsidy depends on the number of inhabitants in a given unit and ranges about 40% of the total cost of the program. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of newly implemented solutions in financing health policy on the management of public finances, as well as on the activity provided by local self-government in health promotion. An effort to estimate the amount of expenses that both local governments, and the National Health Fund, spent on local health policy programs while implementing the new solutions. The research method is the analysis of financial data obtained from the National Health Fund and from local government units, as well as reports published by the Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Pricing, which holds substantive control over the health policy programs, and releases permission for their implementation. The study was based on a comparative analysis of expenditures on the implementation of health programs in Poland in years 2010-2018. The presentation of the results includes the inclusion of average annual expenditures of local government units per 1 inhabitant, the total number of positively evaluated applications and the percentage share in total expenditures of local governments (16 voivodships areas). The most essential purpose is to determine whether the assumptions of the subsidy program are working correctly in practice, and what are the real effects of introducing legislative changes into local government levels in the context of public health tasks. The assumption of the study was that the use of a new motivation tool in the field of public management would result in multiplication of resources invested in the provision of health policy programs. Preliminary conclusions show that financial expenditures changed significantly after the introduction of public funding at the level of 40%, obtaining an increase in funding from own funds of local governments at the level of 80 to 90%.

Keywords: health care system, health policy programs, local self-governments, public health management

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Authors: Raymond C. Hawkins II, Catherine A. Hawkins

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The System Contextual Integrated Model (SCIM), developed as a trans-theoretical framework for selecting measures for psychotherapy process and outcome, is reformulated for behavioral health applications. The SCIM “healing cycle” is an allostatic hedonic affective-cognitive right-hemisphere–left-hemisphere coordinated process involving positive alliesthesia that mitigates traumatic pain and generates psychological flexibility. The SCIM “trauma cycle” is an allostatic overload alliesthesia opponent process with long-lasting pathology sequelae. The social ecological context moderates the “healing cycle” and the “trauma cycle.” Repeated evocation of the “healing cycle” in a therapeutic relationship can gradually relieve trauma sequelae. The SCIM is applied to pain, obese binge eating, and substance use disorders.

Keywords: allostasis, alliesthesia, opponent process, behavioral health, assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: W. Rowan, Y. O’Connor, L. Lynch, C. Heavin

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Situation Awareness can offer the potential for conscious dynamic reflection. In an era of online health data sharing, it is becoming increasingly important that users of health social networks (HSNs) have the information necessary to make informed decisions as part of the registration process and in the provision of eConsent. This research aims to leverage an adapted Situation Awareness (SA) model to explore users’ decision making processes in the provision of eConsent. A HSN platform was used to investigate these behaviours. A mixed methods approach was taken. This involved the observation of registration behaviours followed by a questionnaire and focus group/s. Early results suggest that users are apt to automatically accept eConsent, and only later consider the long-term implications of sharing their personal health information. Further steps are required to continue developing knowledge and understanding of this important eConsent process. The next step in this research will be to develop a set of guidelines for the improved presentation of eConsent on the HSN platform.

Keywords: eConsent, health social network, mixed methods, situation awareness

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Authors: I. C. Tolias, A. G. Venetsanos, N. Markatos

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In the present work, CFD simulations of a large scale open deflagration experiment are performed. Stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture occupies a 20 m hemisphere. Two combustion models are compared and are evaluated against the experiment. The Eddy Dissipation Model and a Multi-physics combustion model which is based on Yakhot’s equation for the turbulent flame speed. The values of models’ critical parameters are investigated. The effect of the turbulence model is also examined. k-ε model and LES approach were tested.

Keywords: CFD, deflagration, hydrogen, combustion model

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Authors: Mutaz Shurahabeel Ahmed Ombada

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This paper investigates potential health and financial settlement of health information technology, this paper evaluates health care with the use of IT and other associated industries. It assesses prospective savings and costs of extensive acceptance of Electronic Medical Record Systems (EMRS), models significant to health as well as safety remuneration, and conclude that efficient EMRS execution and networking could ultimately save more than US $55 billion annually through recuperating health care effectiveness and that Health Information Technology -enabled prevention and administration of chronic disease could eventually double those savings while rising health and other social remuneration. On the contrary, this is improbable to be realized without related to significant modifications to the health care system.

Keywords: electronic medical record systems, health care economics, EMRS

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Authors: Nuri Caglayan, H. Kursat Celik

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There are many factors that influence the health and productivity of the animals in livestock production fields, including temperature, humidity, carbon dioxide (CO2), ammonia (NH3), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), physical activity and particulate matter. High NH3 concentrations reduce feed consumption and cause daily weight gain. At high concentrations, H2S causes respiratory problems and CO2 displace oxygen, which can cause suffocation or asphyxiation. Good air quality in livestock facilities can have an impact on the health and well-being of animals and humans. Air quality assessment basically depends on strictly given limits without taking into account specific local conditions between harmful gases and other meteorological factors. The stated limitations may be eliminated. using controlling systems based on neural networks and fuzzy logic. This paper describes a fuzzy logic based ventilation algorithm, which can calculate different fan speeds under pre-defined boundary conditions, for removing harmful gases from the production environment. In the paper, a fuzzy logic model has been developed based on a Mamedani’s fuzzy method. The model has been built on MATLAB software. As the result, optimum fan speeds under pre-defined boundary conditions have been presented.

Keywords: air quality, fuzzy logic model, livestock housing, fan speed

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Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

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The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

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Authors: Ahmad Sarfaraz, Raiyad Herwies

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In this paper, a multi-criteria decision making analysis is used to help any organization selects the best KM tool that fits and serves its needs. The AHP model is used based on a previous study to highlight and identify the main criteria and sub-criteria that are incorporated in the selection process. Different KM tools alternatives with different criteria are compared and weighted accurately to be incorporated in the GP model. The main goal is to combine the GP model with the AHP model to ensure that selecting the KM tool considers the resource constraints. Two important issues are discussed in this paper: how different factors could be taken into consideration in forming the AHP model, and how to incorporate the AHP results into the GP model for better results.

Keywords: knowledge management, analytical hierarchy process, goal programming, multi-criteria decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Jan Muhammad, Saad Malik, Fadia W. Al-Azawi, Ali Imran

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In the era of climate variability, rising temperatures are the most significant aspect. In this study PRECIS model data and observed data are used for assessing the temperature change scenarios of Sindh province during the first half of present century. Observed data from various meteorological stations of Sindh are the primary source for temperature change detection. The current scenario (1961–1990) and the future one (2010-2050) are acted by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 * 25 km. Regional Climate Model (RCM) can yield reasonably suitable projections to be used for climate-scenario. The main objective of the study is to map the simulated temperature as obtained from climate model-PRECIS and their comparison with observed temperatures. The analysis is done on all the districts of Sindh in order to have a more precise picture of temperature change scenarios. According to results the temperature is likely to increases by 1.5 - 2.1°C by 2050, compared to the baseline temperature of 1961-1990. The model assesses more accurate values in northern districts of Sindh as compared to the coastal belt of Sindh. All the district of the Sindh province exhibit an increasing trend in the mean temperature scenarios and each decade seems to be warmer than the previous one. An understanding of the change in temperatures is very vital for various sectors such as weather forecasting, water, agriculture, and health, etc.

Keywords: PRECIS Model, real observed data, Arc GIS, interpolation techniques

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Authors: Saba Harati, Nasrin Arian Parsa

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The current research was an attempt to investigate the effect of resilience on mental health and life satisfaction. In one Cross Sectional research, 287 (173 females and 114 males) students of Tehran University were participated their average age was 23.17 years old (SD=4.9). The instruments used for assessing the research variables included: Cutter and Davidson resilience scale (CD-RISC), the short form of the depression-anxiety-stress scale, and life satisfaction scale. The data analysis was done in the form of structural equation model. The results of Simultaneous Hierarchical Multiple Regression Analysis indicated that there was a significant mediating role of the negative emotions (depression, anxiety, and stress), in the relationship between the family resilience (p < 0.001) and satisfaction with life (p < 0.001). Resilience results in life satisfaction by reducing the emotional problems (or increasing the mental health level). The effect of the resilience variable on life satisfaction was indirect.

Keywords: resilience, negative emotion, mental health, life satisfaction

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Abdelkadir Muzey Mohammed, Habtu Alemayehu Atsbaha, Yohannes Yirga Kefela, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Kiros Tedla Gebrehiwot

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The circumstances of war and conflict have long been associated with concerns about heightening HIV infection due to the use of sexual violence and rape as a weapon of war and lack of health services access to the patients with HIV as well as sexual violence and rape victims. This paper examines the impact of war related mass rape on HIV incidence and prevalence in the war ravaged Tigray, Ethiopia. Risk equation model and uncertainty analyses with sampled ranges of parameters were employed using data from WHO, Ethiopian Public Health Institute and Ethiopian Central Statistical Agency was used. Our analysis indicated that the mass rape committed in Tigray could cause an increase of incidence and prevalence by a median of 63.01% and 1.14% respectively. The significant increase in HIV incidence and prevalence due to mass rape demands a special attention including region wide improved surveillance and tracing of rape survivors. Furthermore, HIV prevention and treatment strategies such as delivery of emergency health service, providing pre and post exposure treatments on the basis of human rights should priority of governmental and nongovernmental organizations in a conflict situation.

Keywords: conflict situation, mass rape, HIV, mathematical model, uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Gokhan Kilic, Pelin Celik

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Structural health monitoring (SHM) is widely used in evaluating the state and health of membrane structures. In the past, in order to collect data and send it to a data collection unit on membrane structures, wire sensors had to be put as part of the SHM process. However, this study recommends using wireless sensors instead of traditional wire ones to construct an economical, useful, and easy-to-install membrane structure health monitoring system. Every wireless sensor uses a software translation program that is connected to the monitoring server. Operational neural networks (ONNs) have recently been developed to solve the shortcomings of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), such as the network's resemblance to the linear neuron model. The results of using ONNs for monitoring to evaluate the structural health of a membrane are presented in this work.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, non-destructive testing, operational neural networks, membrane structures, dynamic monitoring

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Authors: Coskun Serefoglu

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The study aims to analyse how a traditional sector such as agri-food could be mobilized through regional innovation strategies. A principal component analysis as well as qualitative information, such as in-depth interviews, focus group and surveys, were employed to find the priority sectors. An agri-food model was developed which includes both a linear model and interactive model. The model consists of two main components, one of which is technological integration and the other one is agricultural extension which is based on Land-grant university approach of U.S. which is not a common practice in Turkey.

Keywords: regional innovation strategy, interactive model, agri-food sector, local development, planning, regional development

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Authors: Erez Yerushalmi, Sani Ziv

Abstract:

The rising demand for healthcare services, without a corresponding rise in public supply, led to a debate on whether to increase private healthcare provision - especially in hospital services and second-tier healthcare. Proponents for increasing private healthcare highlight gains in efficiency, while opponents its risk to social welfare. None, however, provide a measure of the social value and its impact on the economy in terms of a monetary value. In this paper, we impute a minimum social value of public healthcare that corresponds to indifference between gains in efficiency, with losses to social welfare. Our approach resembles contingent valuation methods that introduce a hypothetical market for non-commodities, but is different from them because we use numerical simulation techniques to exploit certain market failure conditions. In this paper, we develop a general equilibrium model that distinguishes between public-private healthcare services and public-private financing. Furthermore, the social value is modelled as a by product of healthcare services. The model is then calibrated to our unique health focused Social Accounting Matrix of Israel, and simulates the introduction of a hypothetical health-labour market - given that it is heavily regulated in the baseline (i.e., the true situation in Israel today). For baseline parameters, we estimate the minimum social value at around 18% public healthcare financing. The intuition is that the gain in economic welfare from improved efficiency, is offset by the loss in social welfare due to a reduction in available social value. We furthermore simulate a deregulated healthcare scenario that internalizes the imputed value of social value and searches for the optimal weight of public and private healthcare provision.

Keywords: contingent valuation method (CVM), general equilibrium model, hypothetical market, private-public healthcare, social value of public healthcare

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