Search results for: extreme precipitation

Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wang

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The study of extreme rainfall events is very important for flood management in river basins and the design of water conservancy infrastructure. Evaluation of quantiles of annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) is required in different environmental fields, agriculture operations, renewable energy sources, climatology, and the design of different structures. Therefore, the annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) was performed at different stations in Pakistan. Multiple probability distributions, log normal (LN), generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel (max), and Pearson type3 (P3) were used to find out the most appropriate distributions in different stations. The L moments method was used to evaluate the distribution parameters. Anderson darling test, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, and chi-square test showed that two distributions, namely GUM (max) and LN, were the best appropriate distributions. The quantile estimate of a multi-parameter PD offers extreme rainfall through a specific location and is therefore important for decision-makers and planners who design and construct different structures. This result provides an indication of these multi-parameter distribution consequences for the study of sites and peak flow prediction and the design of hydrological maps. Therefore, this discovery can support hydraulic structure and flood management.

Keywords: RAMSE, multiple frequency analysis, annual maximum rainfall, L-moments

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Authors: Md. Shafiullah, M. Shafiul Alam, Bandar Suliman Alsharif

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Electrical quantities such as frequency, voltage, current are being fluctuated due to abnormalities in power system. Most of the abnormalities cause fluctuation in system frequency and sometimes extreme abnormalities lead to system blackout. To protect the system from complete blackout planned and proper islanding plays a very important role even in case of extreme abnormalities. Islanding operation not only helps stabilizing a faulted system but also supports power supplies to critical and important loads, in extreme emergency. But the islanding systems are weaker than integrated system so the stability of islands is the prime concern when an integrated system is disintegrated. In this paper, different impacts on a load rich island have been studied and a frequency based auto-load shedding scheme has been developed for sudden load addition, generation outage and combined effect of both to the island. The developed scheme has been applied to Khulna-Barisal Island to validate the effectiveness of the developed technique. Various types of abnormalities to the test system have been simulated and for the simulation purpose CYME PSAF (Power System Analysis Framework) has been used.

Keywords: auto load shedding, FS&FD relay, impact study, island, PSAF, ROCOF

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Authors: Shahnaz Mansouri, Xiao Dong Chen, Meng Wai Woo

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A new antisolvent vapour precipitation approach was used to make ultrafine submicron probiotic encapsulates. The approach uses ethanol vapour to precipitate submicron encapsulates within relatively large droplets. Surprisingly, the probiotics (Lactobacillus delbrueckii ssp. bulgaricus, Streptococcus thermophilus) showed relatively high survival even under destructive ethanolic conditions within the droplet. This unusual behaviour was deduced to be caused by the denaturation and aggregation of the milk protein forming an ethanolic protective matrix for the probiotics. Skim milk droplets which is rich in casein and contains naturally occurring minerals provided higher ethanolic protection when compared whey protein isolate and lactose droplets.

Keywords: whey, skim milk, probiotic, antisolvent, precipitation, encapsulation, denaturation, aggregation

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Authors: Rui Teixeira, Alan O’Connor, Maria Nogal

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The statistical theory of extreme events is progressively a topic of growing interest in all the fields of science and engineering. The changes currently experienced by the world, economic and environmental, emphasized the importance of dealing with extreme occurrences with improved accuracy. When it comes to the design of offshore structures, particularly offshore wind turbines, the importance of efficiently characterizing extreme events is of major relevance. Extreme events are commonly characterized by extreme values theory. As an alternative, the accurate modeling of the tails of statistical distributions and the characterization of the low occurrence events can be achieved with the application of the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) methodology. The POT methodology allows for a more refined fit of the statistical distribution by truncating the data with a minimum value of a predefined threshold u. For mathematically approximating the tail of the empirical statistical distribution the Generalised Pareto is widely used. Although, in the case of the exceedances of significant wave data (H_s) the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution, which is a specific case of the Generalised Pareto distribution, are frequently used as an alternative. The Generalized Pareto, despite the existence of practical cases where it is applied, is not completely recognized as the adequate solution to model exceedances over a certain threshold u. References that set the Generalised Pareto distribution as a secondary solution in the case of significant wave data can be identified in the literature. In this framework, the current study intends to tackle the discussion of the application of statistical models to characterize exceedances of wave data. Comparison of the application of the Generalised Pareto, the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution are presented for different values of the threshold u. Real wave data obtained in four buoys along the Irish coast was used in the comparative analysis. Results show that the application of the statistical distributions to characterize significant wave data needs to be addressed carefully and in each particular case one of the statistical models mentioned fits better the data than the others. Depending on the value of the threshold u different results are obtained. Other variables of the fit, as the number of points and the estimation of the model parameters, are analyzed and the respective conclusions were drawn. Some guidelines on the application of the POT method are presented. Modeling the tail of the distributions shows to be, for the present case, a highly non-linear task and, due to its growing importance, should be addressed carefully for an efficient estimation of very low occurrence events.

Keywords: extreme events, offshore structures, peak-over-threshold, significant wave data

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Authors: Mara F. Müller, Simon C. Griffith, Tara L. Crewe, Mirjam Kaestli, Sydney J. Collett, Ian J. Radford, Hamish A. Campbell

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The intensity and frequency of heat waves have been progressively increasing because of climate change. Passerines that inhabit very hot regions are already close to their physiological thermal limit and are thus considered highly susceptible to increased ambient temperatures. However, the extent by which passerines behaviorally compensate for extreme heat in their natural habitat has rarely been assessed due to monitoring challenges. To address this knowledge gap, coded VHF-nano transmitters were attached to a tropical passerine (Gouldian finch, Chloebia gouldiae). Fine-scale activity and movement were monitored throughout the hottest and driest period of the year using an array of static VHF-receivers. The finches were found to typically show a peak activity for a few hours at sunrise and remained relatively quiescent for the rest of the day. However, on extremely hot days (max temperature >38ºC), finches showed higher activity levels earlier in the morning and presented a second peak in the afternoon. Gouldian finches are physiologically challenged when ambient temperatures exceed 38ºC, suggesting the shift in movement activity reflects a behavioral mitigation strategy to extreme heat. These tropical finches already exist on an energetic knife-edge during this time of the year due to resource scarcity. Hence, the increased energetic expenditure to mitigate thermal stress may be detrimental. The study demonstrates the value of VHF-telemetry technology in monitoring the impact of global change on the biology of small-bodied mobile species.

Keywords: animal tracking, biotelemetry, climate change, extreme heat, movement activity, radiotelemetry, VHF-telemetry

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Authors: Sulamain Alharbi, Mohammad Khiyami, Reda Amasha, Bassam Al-Johny, Hesham Khalil, Milton Wainwrigh

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Nematodes, Rotifers and Tardigrades (NRT) are extreme-tolerant invertebrates which can survive long periods of stasis brought about by extreme drying and cold. They can also resist the effects of UV radiation, and as a result could act as vehicles for the panspermic transfer of microorganisms. Here we show that NRT contain a variety of bacteria and fungi within their bodies in which environment they could be protected from the extremes of the space and released into new cosmic environments. Diatoms were also shown to contain viable alga and Escherichia coli and so could also act as panspermic vehicles for the transfer of these and perhaps other microbes through space. Although not studied here, NRT, and possibly diatoms, also carry protozoa and viruses within their bodies and could act as vehicles for the panspermic transfer of an even wider range of microbes than shown here.

Keywords: extromophiles, diatoms, panspermia, survival in space

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Authors: Kaniz Roksana, Aluthgun Hewage Shaini, Cheng Zhu

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Lead is environmentally hazardous because it may persist for a long time in soil, water, and air, and it can travel large distances when carried by wind or water. Lead is toxic to many different species of organisms and has the potential to disrupt ecosystem stability. Moreover, lead can contaminate crops and livestock, which can then have an adverse effect on human health. This study was conducted to use the enzyme-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (EICP) technique from soybean crude extract urease along coconut fiber derived biochar’s (CFB) to bioremediate lead. To study the desorption rates of heavy metals from the soil, lead (Pb) was added to the soil at load ratios of 50 and 100 mg/kg. There were five separate treatment soil columns created: control sample, only CFB, only EICP, EICP with 2% (w/w) CFB, and EICP with 4% (w/w) CFB. Laboratory scale experiment demonstrates significant lead removal from soil. The amount of CaCO₃ precipitated in the soil was measured using a gravimetric acid digestion test, which related heavy metal desorption to the amount of precipitated calcium carbonate. These findings were validated using a scanning electron microscope (SEM), which revealed calcium carbonate and lead coprecipitation. As a result, the study reveals that the EICP technique, in conjunction with coconut fiber biochar, could be an efficient alternative in the remediation of heavy metal ion-contaminated soils.

Keywords: enzyme induced calcium carbonate precipitation (EICP), coconut fiber derived biochar’s (CFB), bioremediation, heavy metal

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Authors: Petra Balla, Gabor Manhertz, Akos Antal

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Nowadays spinal deformities are very frequent problems among teenagers. Scheuermann disease is a one dimensional deformity of the spine, but it has prevalence over 11% of the children. A traditional technology, the moiré method was used by us for screening and diagnosing this type of spinal deformity. A LabVIEW program has been developed to evaluate the moiré pictures of patients with Scheuermann disease. Two different solutions were tested in this computer program, the extreme and the inflexion point calculation methods. Effects using these methods were compared and according to the results both solutions seemed to be appropriate. Statistical results showed better efficiency in case of the extreme search method where the average difference was only 6,09⁰.

Keywords: spinal deformity, picture evaluation, Moiré method, Scheuermann disease, curve detection, Moiré topography

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Authors: Anas Al-Ali, Mohammed Suleiman, Ayman Hussein

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Sulfur is an important element has many practical applications in present as nanoparticles. Nanosize sulfur particles also have many important applications like in pharmaceuticals, medicine, syn-thesis of nano-composites for lithium batteries, modification of carbon nano tubes. Different methods were used for nano-sized particle synthesis; among those, chemical precipitation, electrochemical method, micro emulsion technique, composing of oil, surfactant, co-surfactant, aqueous phases with the specific compositions and ultrasonic treatment of sulfur-cystine solution. In this work Sulfur nanoparticles (S NPs) were prepared by a quick precipitation method with and without using a surfactant to stabilize the formed S NPs. The synthesized S NPs were characterized by XRD, SEM and TEM in order to confirm their sizes and structures.Application of nanotechnology is suggested for diag-nosis and treatment of cancer. The anticancer activity of the prepared S NPs has been tested on various types of cancer cell clones including leukemia, kidney and colon cancers.

Keywords: sulfur nanoparticles (S-NPs), TEM, SEM, XRD

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Authors: Anas Al-Ali, Mohammed Suleiman, Ayman Hussein

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Sulfur is an important element has many practical applications in present as nanoparticles. Nanosize sulfur particles also have many important applications like in pharmaceuticals, medicine, synthesis of nanocomposites for lithium batteries, modification of carbon nanotubes. Different methods were used for nano-sized particle synthesis; among those, chemical precipitation, electrochemical method, micro-emulsion technique, composing of oil, surfactant, co-surfactant, aqueous phases with the specific compositions and ultrasonic treatment of sulfur-cystine solution. In this work, sulfur nanoparticles (S NPs) were prepared by a quick precipitation method with and without using a surfactant to stabilize the formed S NPs. The synthesized S NPs were characterized by XRD, SEM, and TEM in order to confirm their sizes and structures. Application of nanotechnology is suggested for diagnosis and treatment of cancer. The anticancer activity of the prepared S NPs has been tested on various types of cancer cell clones including leukemia, kidney and colon cancers.

Keywords: sulfur nanoparticles (S-NPs), TEM, SEM, anti cancer activity, XRD

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Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

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Authors: Daniyar Seitenov, Nazim Mir-Nasiri

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Optimization of horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine has been performed using a shield protection that automatically protects the generator shaft at extreme wind speeds from over speeding, mechanical damage and continues generating electricity during the high wind speed conditions. A semi-exposed to wind generator has been designed and its structure has been described in this paper. The simplified point-force dynamic load model on the blades has been derived for normal and extreme wind conditions with and without shield involvement. Numerical simulation has been conducted at different values of wind speed to study the efficiency of shield application. The obtained results show that the maximum power generated by the wind turbine with shield does not exceed approximately the rated value of the generator, where shield serves as an automatic break for extreme wind speed values of 15 m/sec and above. Meantime the wind turbine without shield produced a power that is much larger than the rated value. The optimized horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine with shield protection is suitable for low and medium power generation when installed on the roofs of high rise buildings for harvesting wind energy. Wind shield works automatically with no power consumption. The structure of the generator with the protection, math simulation of kinematics and dynamics of power generation has been described in details in this paper.

Keywords: renewable energy, wind turbine, wind turbine optimization, high wind speed

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Authors: Antonia Harold-Barry, Eugene Dempsey

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Background: The objective is to examine the survival and outcome of infants born under 26 weeks gestation in an Irish tertiary maternity hospital from 2007-2016 and to describe the survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes of these extremely preterm infants. Method: The population is 132 infants born at 23, 24, and 25 weeks in Cork University Maternity Hospital from 2007 to 2016. Ethical approval was granted by the Cork Clinical Research Ethics Committee. Patient details were obtained from the Vermont Oxford and Badger Networks. Survival rates and Bayley scores were calculated to assess neurodevelopmental outcomes. Statistical analysis with SPSS included frequencies, distributions, and comparisons between data from 2007-2011 and 2012-2016. Results: Overall survival rate was 63%. Of the surviving babies, 61% had Bayley scores calculated. Survival stood at 39% for delivery at 23 weeks, 50% at 24 weeks, and 83% at 25 weeks. The 2012 to 2016 cohort has shown further increases in survival, with 50% of babies at 23 weeks, 58% at 24 weeks, and 89% at 25 weeks. Corresponding figures for 2007-2011 are 20%, 39%, and 75%. Gestational age and incidence of periventricular leukomalacia were statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.022. Gestational age and delivery room deaths had a p-value of 0.025, as did gestational age and birth weight. A comparison of the two cohorts (2007-2011 and 2012-2016) with the administration of antenatal steroids showed a statistically significant p-value of 0.044. Conclusion: There is less morbidity and mortality in infants born at 25 than at 23 or 24 weeks. Survival of extremely premature infants has increased significantly over the past ten years. Survival rates with normal neurodevelopmental outcomes are comparable with international standards and reflect positive changes in attitude and practices in neonatal intensive care. This study will inform parents about the potential outcomes of extreme prematurity and policy regarding the management of extreme prematurity.

Keywords: extreme of viability, neurodevelopmental outcome, periventricular leukomalacia, prematurity

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Authors: Wei-Bo Hua, Zhuo Zheng, Xiao-Dong Guo, Ben-He Zhong

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The layered structure LiNi1/3Co1/3Mn1/3-xAlxO2 (x = 0 ~ 0.04) series cathode materials were synthesized by a carbonate co-precipitation method, followed by a high temperature calcination process. The influence of Al substitution on the microstructure and electrochemical performances of the prepared materials was investigated by X-Ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and galvanostatic charge/discharge test. The results show that the LiNi1/3Co1/3Mn1/3-xAlxO2 has a well-ordered hexagonal "α" -NaFeO2 structure. Although the discharge capacity of Al-doped samples decreases as x increases, LiNi1/3Co1/3Mn1/3-0.02Al0.02O2 exhibits superior capacity retention at high voltage (4.6 V). Therefore, LiNi1/3Co1/3Mn1/3-0.02Al0.02O2 is a promising material for “green” vehicles.

Keywords: lithium ion battery, carbonate co-precipitation, doping, microstructure, electrochemical properties

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Authors: Eugen Rusu

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The objective of the work proposed is to perform an analysis of the wave conditions in the Black Sea basin. This is especially focused on the spatial and temporal occurrences and on the dynamics of the most extreme storms in the context of the climate changes. A numerical modelling system, based on the spectral phase averaged wave model SWAN, has been implemented and validated against both in situ measurements and remotely sensed data, all along the sea. Moreover, a successive correction method for the assimilation of the satellite data has been associated with the wave modelling system. This is based on the optimal interpolation of the satellite data. Previous studies show that the process of data assimilation improves considerably the reliability of the results provided by the modelling system. This especially concerns the most sensitive cases from the point of view of the accuracy of the wave predictions, as the extreme storm situations are. Following this numerical approach, it has to be highlighted that the results provided by the wave modelling system above described are in general in line with those provided by some similar wave prediction systems implemented in enclosed or semi-enclosed sea basins. Simulations of this wave modelling system with data assimilation have been performed for the 30-year period 1987-2016. Considering this database, the next step was to analyze the intensity and the dynamics of the higher storms encountered in this period. According to the data resulted from the model simulations, the western side of the sea is considerably more energetic than the rest of the basin. In this western region, regular strong storms provide usually significant wave heights greater than 8m. This may lead to maximum wave heights even greater than 15m. Such regular strong storms may occur several times in one year, usually in the wintertime, or in late autumn, and it can be noticed that their frequency becomes higher in the last decade. As regards the case of the most extreme storms, significant wave heights greater than 10m and maximum wave heights close to 20m (and even greater) may occur. Such extreme storms, which in the past were noticed only once in four or five years, are more recent to be faced almost every year in the Black Sea, and this seems to be a consequence of the climate changes. The analysis performed included also the dynamics of the monthly and annual significant wave height maxima as well as the identification of the most probable spatial and temporal occurrences of the extreme storm events. Finally, it can be concluded that the present work provides valuable information related to the characteristics of the storm conditions and on their dynamics in the Black Sea. This environment is currently subjected to high navigation traffic and intense offshore and nearshore activities and the strong storms that systematically occur may produce accidents with very serious consequences.

Keywords: Black Sea, extreme storms, SWAN simulations, waves

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: E. Obreque-Slier, F. Orellana-Rodríguez, R. López-Solís

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Phenolic compounds are secondary metabolites present in some foods, such as wine. Polyphenols comprise two main groups: flavonoids (anthocyanins, flavanols, and flavonols) and non-flavonoids (stilbenes and phenolic acids). Phenolic acids are low molecular weight non flavonoid compounds that are usually grouped into benzoic (gallic, vanillinic and protocatechuic acids) and cinnamic acids (ferulic, p-coumaric and caffeic acids). Likewise, tannic acid is an important polyphenol constituted mainly by gallic acid. Phenolic compounds are responsible for important properties in foods and drinks, such as color, aroma, bitterness, and astringency. Astringency is a drying, roughing, and sometimes puckering sensation that is experienced on the various oral surfaces during or immediately after tasting foods. Astringency perception has been associated with interactions between flavanols present in some foods and salivary proteins. Despite the quantitative relevance of phenolic acids in food and beverages, there is no information about its effect on salivary proteins and consequently on the sensation of astringency. The objective of this study was assessed the interaction of several phenolic acids (gallic, vanillinic, protocatechuic, ferulic, p-coumaric and caffeic acids) with saliva. Tannic acid was used as control. Thus, solutions of each phenolic acids (5 mg/mL) were mixed with human saliva (1:1 v/v). After incubation for 5 min at room temperature, 15-μL aliquots of the mixtures were dotted on a cellulose membrane and allowed to diffuse. The dry membrane was fixed in 50 g/L trichloroacetic acid, rinsed in 800 mL/L ethanol and stained for protein with Coomassie blue for 20 min, destained with several rinses of 73 g/L acetic acid and dried under a heat lamp. Both diffusion area and stain intensity of the protein spots were semiqualitative estimates for protein-tannin interaction (diffusion test). The rest of the whole saliva-phenol solution mixtures of the diffusion assay were centrifuged and fifteen-μL aliquots of each supernatant were dotted on a cellulose membrane, allowed to diffuse and processed for protein staining, as indicated above. In this latter assay, reduced protein staining was taken as indicative of protein precipitation (precipitation test). The diffusion of the salivary protein was restricted by the presence of each phenolic acids (anti-diffusive effect), while tannic acid did not alter diffusion of the salivary protein. By contrast, phenolic acids did not provoke precipitation of the salivary protein, while tannic acid produced precipitation of salivary proteins. In addition, binary mixtures (mixtures of two components) of various phenolic acids with gallic acid provoked a restriction of saliva. Similar effect was observed by the corresponding individual phenolic acids. Contrary, binary mixtures of phenolic acid with tannic acid, as well tannic acid alone, did not affect the diffusion of the saliva but they provoked an evident precipitation. In summary, phenolic acids showed a relevant interaction with the salivary proteins, thus suggesting that these wine compounds can also contribute to the sensation of astringency.

Keywords: astringency, polyphenols, tannins, tannin-protein interaction

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Authors: Aiman Mazhar Qureshi, Ahmed Rachid

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Extreme heat events are emerging human environmental health concerns in dense urban areas due to anthropogenic activities. High spatial and temporal resolution heat maps are important for urban heat adaptation and mitigation, helping to indicate hotspots that are required for the attention of city planners. The Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) is the important approach used by decision-makers and urban planners to identify heat-vulnerable communities and areas that require heat stress mitigation strategies. Amiens is a medium-sized French city, where the average temperature has been increasing since the year 2000 by +1°C. Extreme heat events are recorded in the month of July for the last three consecutive years, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Poor air quality, especially ground-level ozone, has been observed mainly during the same hot period. In this study, we evaluated the HVI in Amiens during extreme heat days recorded last three years (2018,2019,2020). The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is used for fine-scale vulnerability mapping. The main data we considered for this study to develop the HVI model are (a) socio-economic and demographic data; (b) Air pollution; (c) Land use and cover; (d) Elderly heat-illness; (e) socially vulnerable; (f) Remote sensing data (Land surface temperature (LST), mean elevation, NDVI and NDWI). The output maps identified the hot zones through comprehensive GIS analysis. The resultant map shows that high HVI exists in three typical areas: (1) where the population density is quite high and the vegetation cover is small (2) the artificial surfaces (built-in areas) (3) industrial zones that release thermal energy and ground-level ozone while those with low HVI are located in natural landscapes such as rivers and grasslands. The study also illustrates the system theory with a causal diagram after data analysis where anthropogenic activities and air pollution appear in correspondence with extreme heat events in the city. Our suggested index can be a useful tool to guide urban planners and municipalities, decision-makers and public health professionals in targeting areas at high risk of extreme heat and air pollution for future interventions adaptation and mitigation measures.

Keywords: heat vulnerability index, heat mapping, heat health-illness, remote sensing, urban heat mitigation

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Authors: Amir Hamzeh Haghiabi

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Water resource management is of global significance as it plays a key role in the socioeconomic development of all nations. On account of the fact that Iran is situated in a highly pressurized belt in the world, precipitation is limited, so that the average annual precipitation in the country is about 250 mm, only about one third to one quarter of the world average for rainfall. Karkheh basin is located in the semiarid and arid regions of Western Iran, an area with severe water scarcity. 70 % of rainfall is directly evaporated. The potential annual evaporation of the southern and northern regions is 3,600 mm 1,800 mm, respectively. In this paper, Some aspects of water resources management for this region, the specifications of the Karkheh reservoir dam & hydroelectric power plant as the biggest dam in history of Iran with total volume of reservoir 7.3 Bm3 are illustrated. Also the situation of water availability in the basin, surface and groundwater potential are considered.

Keywords: Iran, water availability, water resources, Zagros

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Authors: Zerarka Hizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

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The landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) is characterized by a complex geology and a high hydrogeology hazard. AEH's perpetual reactivation compels us to look closely at its triggers and to better understand the mechanisms of its evolution in mass and in depth. This study builds a numerical model to simulate the influencing factors such as precipitation, non-saturation, and pore pressure fluctuations, using Plaxis software. For a finer analysis of instabilities, we use Hill's criterion, based on the sign of the second order work, which is the most appropriate material stability criterion for non-associated elastoplastic materials. The results of this type of calculation allow us, in theory, to predict the shape and position of the slip surface(s) which are liable to ground movements of the slope, before reaching the rupture given by the plastic limit of Mohr Coulomb. To validate the numerical model, an analysis of inclinometer measures is performed to confirm the direction of movement and kinematic of the sliding mechanism of AEH’s slope.

Keywords: landslide, second order work, precipitation, inclinometers

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Authors: Márcia Afonso, Marisa Dinis-Almeida, Cristina Fael

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Climate change, namely precipitation patterns alteration, has led to extreme conditions such as floods and droughts. In turn, excessive construction has led to the waterproofing of the soil, increasing the surface runoff and decreasing the groundwater recharge capacity. The permeable pavements used in areas with low traffic lead to a decrease in the probability of floods peaks occurrence and the sediments reduction and pollutants transport, ensuring rainwater quality improvement. This study aims to evaluate the porous asphalt performance, developed in the laboratory, with addition of cellulosic fibres. One of the main objectives of cellulosic fibres use is to stop binder drainage, preventing its loss during storage and transport. Comparing to the conventional porous asphalt the cellulosic fibres addition improved the porous asphalt performance. The cellulosic fibres allowed the bitumen content increase, enabling retention and better aggregates coating and, consequently, a greater mixture durability. With this solution, it is intended to develop better practices of resilience and adaptation to the extreme climate changes and respond to the sustainability current demands, through the eco-friendly materials use. The mix design was performed for different size aggregates (with fine aggregates – PA1 and with coarse aggregates – PA2). The percentage influence of the fibres to be used was studied. It was observed that overall, the binder drainage decreases as the cellulose fibres percentage increases. It was found that the PA2 mixture obtained most binder drainage relative to PA1 mixture, irrespective of the fibres percentage used. Subsequently, the performance was evaluated through laboratory tests of indirect tensile stiffness modulus, water sensitivity, permeability and permanent deformation. The stiffness modulus for the two mixtures groups (with and without cellulosic fibres) presented very similar values between them. For the water sensitivity test it was observed that porous asphalt containing more fine aggregates are more susceptible to the water presence than mixtures with coarse aggregates. The porous asphalt with coarse aggregates have more air voids which allow water to pass easily leading to ITSR higher values. In the permeability test was observed that asphalt porous without cellulosic fibres presented had lower permeability than asphalt porous with cellulosic fibres. The resistance to permanent deformation results indicates better behaviour of porous asphalt with cellulosic fibres, verifying a bigger rut depth in porous asphalt without cellulosic fibres. In this study, it was observed that porous asphalt with bitumen higher percentages improve the performance to permanent deformation. This fact was only possible due to the bitumen retention by the cellulosic fibres.

Keywords: binder drainage, cellulosic fibres, permanent deformation, porous asphalt

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Authors: Farzad Shirzad, Bohlol Alijani, Mehry Akbary, Mohammad Saligheh

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Climate change and global warming are very important issues today. The process of climate change, especially changes in temperature and precipitation, is the most important issue in the environmental sciences. Climate change means changing the averages in the long run. Iran is located in arid and semi-arid regions due to its proximity to the equator and its location in the subtropical high pressure zone. In this respect, the Hyrcanian forest is a green necklace between the Caspian Sea and the south of the Alborz mountain range. In the forty-third session of UNESCO, it was registered as the second natural heritage of Iran. Beech is one of the most important tree species and the most industrial species of Hyrcanian forests. In this research, using dendroclimatology, the width of the tree ring, and climatic data of temperature and precipitation from Shanderman meteorological station located in the study area, And non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical method to investigate the trend of climate change over a time series of 202 years of growth ringsAnd Pearson statistical method was used to correlate the growth of "ring" growth rings of beech trees with climatic variables in the region. The results obtained from the time series of beech growth rings showed that the changes in beech growth rings had a downward and negative trend and were significant at the level of 5% and climate change occurred. The average minimum, medium, and maximum temperatures and evaporation in the growing season had an increasing trend, and the annual precipitation had a decreasing trend. Using Pearson method during fitting the correlation of diameter of growth rings with temperature, for the average in July, August, and September, the correlation is negative, and the average temperature in July, August, and September is negative, and for the average The average maximum temperature in February was correlation-positive and at the level of 95% was significant, and with precipitation, in June the correlation was at the level of 95% positive and significant.

Keywords: climate change, dendroclimatology, hyrcanian forest, beech

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Authors: L. L. Tundisi, A. Pessoa Jr., E. B. Tambourgi, E. Silveira, P. G. Mazzola

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L-asparaginase (L-ASNase) is the gold standard treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukemia that mainly affects pediatric patients; treatment increases survival from 20% to 90%. The characterization of other L-Asparaginases, apart from the most used from Escherichia coli and Erwinia chrysanthemi, has been reported, but the choice of the most appropriate is still under debate. This choice should be based on its pharmacokinetics, immune hypersensitivity, doses, prices, pharmacodynamics. The main factors influencing the antileukemic activity of ASNase are enzymatic activity, Km, glutaminase activity, clearance of the enzyme and development of resistance. However, most of the commercialized enzyme present an intrinsic glutaminase activity, which is responsible for some side effects. In this study, glutaminase free asparaginase produced from Aspergillus oryzae was precipitated in different percentages of ethanol (0–80%), until optimum ethanol concentration of 60% (w/w) was found. Following, precipitation of crude L-ASNase was performed in a single step, using 60% (w/w) ethanol, under constant agitation and temperature. It presented activity of 135.45 U/mg and after gel filtration chromatography with Sephadex G-the enzymatic activity was 322.02 U/mg. The apparent molecular mass of the purified L-ASNase fraction was estimated by 10% SDS-PAGE. Proteins were stained with Coomassie Brilliant Blue R-250. The molar mass range was from 10 kDa to 250 kDa. L-ASNase from Aspergillus oryzae was characterized aiming possible therapeutic use. Four different buffers (phosphate-citrate buffer pH 2.6 to 5.8; phosphate buffer pH 5.8 to 7.4; Tris - HCl pH 7.4 to 9.0; and carbonate buffer pH 9.8 to 10.6) were used to measure the optimum pH for L-ASNase activity. The optimum temperature for enzyme activity was measured at optimal pH conditions (Tris-HCl and phosphate buffer, pH 7.4) at different temperatures ranging from 5 to 55°C. All activities were calculated by quantifying the free ammonia, using the Nessler reagent. The kinetic parameters calculation, e.g. Michaelis-Menten constant (Km), maximum velocity (Vmax) and Hills coefficient (n), were performed by incubating the enzyme in different concentrations of the substrate at optimum conditions of pH and fitted on Hill’s equation. This glutaminase free asparaginase showed a low Km (3.39 mM and 3.81 mM) and enzymatic activity of 135.45 U/mg after precipitation with ethanol. After gel filtration chromatography it rose to 322.02 U/mg. Optimum activity was found between pH 5.8 - 9.0, best activity results with phosphate buffer pH 7.4 and Tris-HCl pH 7.4 and showed activity from 5°C to 55°C. These results indicate that L-ASNase from A. oryzae has the potential for human use.

Keywords: biopharmaceuticals, bioprocessing, bioproducts, biotechnology, enzyme activity, ethanol precipitation

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Authors: Dawd Ahmed, Venkatesh Uddameri

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Agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic sector influenced by agricultural drought. A simultaneous assessment of drought trends using multiple drought indicators is useful for drought planning and management. Intra-season and seasonal drought trends in Ethiopia were studied using a suite of drought indicators. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Z-index for long-rainy, dry, and short-rainy seasons are used to identify drought-causing mechanisms. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction and data analyses. Trend analysis indicated shifts in late-season long-rainy season precipitation into dry in the southwest and south-central portions of Ethiopia. Droughts during the dry season (October–January) were largely temperature controlled. Short-term temperature-controlled hydrologic processes exacerbated rainfall deficits during the short rainy season (February–May) and highlight the importance of temperature- and hydrology-induced soil dryness on the production of short-season crops such as tef. Droughts during the long-rainy season (June–September) were largely driven by precipitation declines arising from the narrowing of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Increased dryness during long-rainy season had severe consequences on the production of corn and sorghum. PDSI was an aggressive indicator of seasonal droughts suggesting the low natural resilience to combat the effects of slow-acting, moisture-depleting hydrologic processes. The lack of irrigation systems in the nation limits the ability to combat droughts and improve agricultural resilience. There is an urgent need to monitor soil moisture (a key agro-hydrologic variable) to better quantify the impacts of meteorological droughts on agricultural systems in Ethiopia.

Keywords: autocorrelation, climate change, droughts, Ethiopia, food security, palmer z-index, PDSI, SPEI, SPI, trend analysis

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Authors: Vinay C. Doranalu, Amba Shetty

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In recent days due to climate change, there is a large variation in spatial distribution of daily rainfall within a small region. Rainfall is one of the main end climatic variables which affect spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. The real task postured by the change in climate is identification, estimation and understanding the uncertainty of rainfall. This study intended to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of daily precipitation using high resolution (0.25º x 0.25º) gridded data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). For the study, 38 grid points were selected in the study area and analyzed for daily precipitation time series (113 years) over the period 1901-2013. Grid points were divided into two zones based on the elevation and situated location of grid points: Low Land (exposed to sea and low elevated area/ coastal region) and High Land (Interior from sea and high elevated area/western Ghats). Time series were applied to examine the spatial analysis and temporal trends in each grid points by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator to perceive the nature of trend and magnitude of slope in trend of rainfall. Pettit-Mann-Whitney test is applied to detect the most probable change point in trends of the time period. Results have revealed remarkable monotonic trend in each grid for daily precipitation of the time series. In general, by the regional cluster analysis found that increasing precipitation trend in shoreline region and decreasing trend in Western Ghats from recent years. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be partly explained by heterogeneity in temporal trends of rainfall by change point analysis. The Mann-Kendall test shows significant variation as weaker rainfall towards the rainfall distribution over eastern parts of the Western Ghats region of Karnataka.

Keywords: change point analysis, coastal region India, gridded rainfall data, non-parametric

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Authors: Kun Huang

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This paper investigates whether the combination of local and stochastic volatility models can be calibrated exactly to any arbitrage-free implied volatility surface of European option. The risk neutral Brownian Bridge density is applied for calibration of the leverage function of our Hybrid model. Furthermore, the tails of marginal risk neutral density are generated by Generalized Extreme Value distribution in order to capture the properties of asset returns. The local volatility is generated from the arbitrage-free implied volatility surface using stochastic volatility inspired parameterization.

Keywords: arbitrage free implied volatility, calibration, extreme value distribution, hybrid model, local volatility, risk-neutral density, stochastic volatility

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Authors: RAM PAL SINGH, VIKASH CHAUDHARY, MONIKA VERMA

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In this paper, we proposed the implementation of optimization based Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) for watermarking of B-channel of color image in discrete wavelet transform (DWT) domain. ELM, a regularization algorithm, works based on generalized single-hidden-layer feed-forward neural networks (SLFNs). However, hidden layer parameters, generally called feature mapping in context of ELM need not to be tuned every time. This paper shows the embedding and extraction processes of watermark with the help of ELM and results are compared with already used machine learning models for watermarking.Here, a cover image is divide into suitable numbers of non-overlapping blocks of required size and DWT is applied to each block to be transformed in low frequency sub-band domain. Basically, ELM gives a unified leaning platform with a feature mapping, that is, mapping between hidden layer and output layer of SLFNs, is tried for watermark embedding and extraction purpose in a cover image. Although ELM has widespread application right from binary classification, multiclass classification to regression and function estimation etc. Unlike SVM based algorithm which achieve suboptimal solution with high computational complexity, ELM can provide better generalization performance results with very small complexity. Efficacy of optimization method based ELM algorithm is measured by using quantitative and qualitative parameters on a watermarked image even though image is subjected to different types of geometrical and conventional attacks.

Keywords: BER, DWT, extreme leaning machine (ELM), PSNR

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Authors: A. Ghenaim, A. Terfous

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In this work, degradation phenomena in fluvial beds having uniform sediments are explored experimentally under extreme flow conditions. Laboratory experiments were conducted in a rectangular cross-section channel for different flow conditions, channel characteristics, and sediment properties at the National Institute of Applied Sciences (Strasbourg, France). Tests were carried out in two conditions: (1) equilibrium condition, where, once the steady and uniform flow conditions were achieved for a given slope and discharge, the channel was fed with variable sediment discharges until the bed-load sediment transport achieved an equilibrium condition; and (2) nonequilibrium condition, where the sediment feeding was instantaneously stopped, and the bed levels were measured over time. Experimental results enabled assessing the erosion rates and determining the empirical mathematical model to predict the bed level changes.

Keywords: fluvial beds, sediment, uniform flow conditions, nonequilibrium condition, sediment disposition, erosion

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Authors: Mohadese Motahari

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In general, we consider the phenomenon of "fandism" or extreme fandom to be an aspect of fandom for a person, a group, or a collection, which leads to extreme support for them. So, for example, we consider a fan or a "fanatic" (which literally means a "fanatical person") to be a person who is extremely interested in a certain topic or topics and has a special passion and fascination for that issue. It may also be beyond the scope of logic and normal behavior of the society. With the expansion of the media and the advancement of technology, the phenomenon of fandom also underwent many changes and not only became more intense, but a large economy was also formed alongside it, and it is becoming more and more important every day. This economy, which emerged from the past with the formation of the first media, has now taken a different form with the development of media and social networks, as well as the change in the interaction between celebrities and audiences. Earning huge amounts of money with special methods in every social network and every media is achieved through fans and fandoms. In this article, we have studied the relationship between fans and famous people with reference to the economic debates surrounding it.

Keywords: fandism, famous people, social media, new media

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Joo-Heon Lee, Ho-Won Jang, Hyung-Won Cho, Tae-Woong Kim

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Drought is a recurrent climatic feature that occurs in virtually every climatic zone around the world. Korea experiences the drought almost every year at the regional scale mainly during in the winter and spring seasons. Moreover, extremely severe droughts at a national scale also occurred at a frequency of six to seven years. Various drought indices had developed as tools to quantitatively monitor different types of droughts and are utilized in the field of drought analysis. Since drought is closely related with climatological and topographic characteristics of the drought prone areas, the basins where droughts are frequently occurred need separate drought preparedness and contingency plans. In this study, an analysis using statistical methods was carried out for the historical droughts occurred in the five major river basins in Korea so that drought characteristics can be quantitatively investigated. It was also aimed to provide information with which differentiated and customized drought preparedness plans can be established based on the basin level analysis results. Conventional methods which quantifies drought execute an evaluation by applying a various drought indices. However, the evaluation results for same drought event are different according to different analysis technique. Especially, evaluation of drought event differs depend on how we view the severity or duration of drought in the evaluation process. Therefore, it was intended to draw a drought history for the most severely affected five major river basins of Korea by investigating a magnitude of drought that can simultaneously consider severity, duration, and the damaged areas by applying drought run theory with the use of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) that can efficiently quantifies meteorological drought. Further, quantitative analysis for the historical extreme drought at various viewpoints such as average severity, duration, and magnitude of drought was attempted. At the same time, it was intended to quantitatively analyze the historical drought events by estimating the return period by derived SDF (severity-duration-frequency) curve for the five major river basins through parametric regional drought frequency analysis. Analysis results showed that the extremely severe drought years were in the years of 1962, 1988, 1994, and 2014 in the Han River basin. While, the extreme droughts were occurred in 1982 and 1988 in the Nakdong river basin, 1994 in the Geumg basin, 1988 and 1994 in Youngsan river basin, 1988, 1994, 1995, and 2000 in the Seomjin river basin. While, the extremely severe drought years at national level in the Korean Peninsula were occurred in 1988 and 1994. The most damaged drought were in 1981~1982 and 1994~1995 which lasted for longer than two years. The return period of the most severe drought at each river basin was turned out to be at a frequency of 50~100 years.

Keywords: drought magnitude, regional frequency analysis, SPI, SDF(severity-duration-frequency) curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 379