Search results for: confidence interval lengths

Authors: Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Norou Diawara, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari

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Modeling effort is needed to predict the COVID-19 trends for developing management strategies and adaptation measures. The objective of this study was to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater could serve as a predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases using copula-based time series modeling. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Chesapeake VA was measured using the RT-qPCR method. Gaussian copula time series marginal regression model, incorporating an autoregressive moving average model and the copula function, served as a forecasting model. COVID-19 cases were correlated with wastewater viral load, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The forecasted trend of COVID-19 cases closely paralleled one of the reported cases, with over 90% of the forecasted COVID-19 cases falling within the 99% confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load could serve as a predictor for COVID-19 cases and hospitalization cases.

Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, time series, copula function

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Authors: Shu-Hui Wen, Wei-Chuan Chang, Hsien-Chang Wu

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Background: Little is known about the benefits and risks of use of Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) in conditions related to hormone therapy (HT) use on the risk of ischemic stroke (IS). The aim of this study is to explore the risk of IS in menopausal women treated with HT and CHM. Materials and methods: A total of 32,441 menopausal women without surgical menopause aged 40- 65 years were selected from 2003 to 2010 using the 2-million random samples of the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. According to the medication usage of HT and CHM, we divided the current and recent users into two groups: an HT use-only group (n = 4,989) and an HT/CHM group (n = 9,265). Propensity-score matching samples (4,079 pairs) were further created to deal with confounding by indication. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of IS during HT or CHM treatment were estimated by the robust Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The incidence rate of IS in the HT/CHM group was significantly lower than in the HT group (4.5 vs. 12.8 per 1000 person-year, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis results indicated that additional CHM use was significant with a lower risk of IS (HR = 0.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.43). Further subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses had similar findings. Conclusion: We found that combined use of HT and CHM was associated with a lower risk for IS than HT use only. Further study is needed to examine possible mechanism underlying this association.

Keywords: Chinese herbal medicine, hormone therapy, ischemic stroke, menopause

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Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

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Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

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Authors: Manlika Ratchagit

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This paper is concerned with robust mean square stability of uncertain stochastic switched discrete time-delay systems. The system to be considered is subject to interval time-varying delays, which allows the delay to be a fast time-varying function and the lower bound is not restricted to zero. Based on the discrete Lyapunov functional, a switching rule for the robust mean square stability for the uncertain stochastic discrete time-delay system is designed via linear matrix inequalities. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: robust mean square stability, discrete-time stochastic systems, hybrid systems, interval time-varying delays, Lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequalities

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Authors: Samane Eftekhari Ranjbar

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Diabetes mellitus, a metabolic disorder characterized by elevated blood glucose levels, ranks among the leading causes of adult mortality. This study investigates the impact of an eight-week high-intensity interval training (HIIT) program combined with sodium nitrite supplementation on TNF- α, MURF1, and PI3K in a type 2 diabetes rodent model. Elevated TNF-α levels have been associated with insulin resistance, while MURF1 and PI3K play roles in muscle atrophy and insulin signaling pathways, respectively. In this experimental study, 15 eight-week-old rats from the Sara Laboratory Center in Tabriz were assigned to one of five groups: healthy control, diabetic control, diabetic with sodium nitrite supplementation, diabetic with eight weeks of intermittent exercise, and diabetic with eight weeks of interval training plus sodium nitrite supplementation. The HIIT protocol was designed to span eight weeks, with five weekly sessions at specified intensities and durations. Sodium nitrite, known for its vasodilatory and cytoprotective properties, was administered via injection. The findings revealed that the HIIT program and sodium nitrite supplementation influenced the examined biomarkers. ANOVA test outcomes indicated statistically significant differences in TNF- α (P=0.001), MURF1 (P=0.001), and PI3K (P=0.001) concentrations among the various groups. The healthy control group exhibited substantially decreased TNF- α, and MURF1 levels, as well as elevated PI3K levels compared to the diabetic control group. The exercise group, in conjunction with sodium nitrite supplementation, demonstrated a significant rise in PI3K levels (P=0.001) and a decline in TNF- α levels (P=0.018) relative to the diabetic control group. These results suggest that the combined intervention may help improve insulin sensitivity and reduce inflammation. However, MURF1 levels, which are related to muscle atrophy, showed no significant difference (P=0.24). In conclusion, in type 2 diabetic rats, an eight-week high-intensity interval training program with sodium nitrite supplementation does not affect MURF1 levels but does influence PI3K and TNF- α levels. This combination may hold potential for improving insulin sensitivity and reducing inflammation in type 2 diabetes patients, warranting further investigation and potential translation to human clinical trials.

Keywords: high-intensity interval training, sodium nitrate supplementation, type 2 diabetes, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase, muscle RING-finger protein-1

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Authors: Manlika Rajchakit

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This paper is concerned with robust mean square stability of uncertain stochastic switched discrete time-delay systems. The system to be considered is subject to interval time-varying delays, which allows the delay to be a fast time-varying function and the lower bound is not restricted to zero. Based on the discrete Lyapunov functional, a switching rule for the robust mean square stability for the uncertain stochastic discrete time-delay system is designed via linear matrix inequalities. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: robust mean square stability, discrete-time stochastic systems, hybrid systems, interval time-varying delays, lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequalities

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: M. W. Sun, Y. Zhang, L. M. Zhang, Z. H. Wang, Z. Q. Chen

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In the realm of flight control, the Proportional- Derivative (PD) control is still widely used for the attitude control in practice, particularly for the pitch control, and the attitude dynamics using PD controller should be investigated deeply. According to the empirical knowledge about the unstable flight dynamics, the control parameter combination conditions to generate sole or finite number of closed-loop oscillations, which is a quite smooth response and is more preferred by practitioners, are presented in analytical or numerical manners. To analyze the effects of the combination conditions of the control parameters, the roots of several polynomials are sought to obtain feasible solutions. These conditions can also be plotted in a 2-D plane which makes the conditions be more explicit by using multiple interval operations. Finally, numerical examples are used to validate the proposed methods and some comparisons are also performed.

Keywords: attitude control, dynamic performance, numerical solving method, interval, unstable flight dynamics

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Authors: Kyngäs Helvi, Patala-Pudas, Kaakinen Pirjo

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It has been reported that COPD -patients may experience much emotional distress, which can compromise positive health outcomes. The aim of this study was to explore disease-related uncertainty as reported by Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients. Uncertainty was defined as a lack of confidence; negative feelings; a sense of confidence; and awareness of the sources of uncertainty. Research design was a non-experimental cross-sectional survey. The data (n=141) was collected by validated questionnaire during COPD -patients’ visits or admissions to a tertiary hospital. The response rate was 62%. The data was analyzed by statistical methods. Around 70% of the participants were male with COPD diagnosed many years ago. Fifty-four percent were under 65 years and used an electronic respiratory aid apparatus (52%) (oxygen concentrator, ventilator or electronic inhalation device). Forty-one percent of the participants smoked. Disease-related uncertainty was widely reported. Seventy-three percent of the participants had uncertainty about their knowledge of the disease, the pulmonary medication and nutrition. One-quarter (25%) did not feel sure about managing COPD exacerbation. About forty percent (43%) reported that they did not have a written exacerbation decision aid indicating how to act in relation to COPD symptoms. Over half of the respondents were uncertain about self-management behavior related to health habits such as exercise and nutrition. Over a third of the participants (37%) felt uncertain about self-management skills related to giving up smoking. Support from the care providers was correlated significantly with the patients’ sense of confidence. COPD -patients who felt no confidence stated that they received significantly less support in care. Disease-related uncertainty should be considered more closely and broadly in the patient care context, and those strategies within patient education that enhance adherence should be strengthened and incorporated into standard practice.

Keywords: adherence, COPD, disease-management, uncertainty

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Authors: Jeong Hong Kim, Ju Wan Kang

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Objective: Histamine skin prick testing is most commonly used to diagnose immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated allergic diseases, and histamine reactivity is used as a standardized positive control in the interpretation of a skin prick test. However, reactivity to histamine differs among individuals for reasons that are poorly understood. The present study aimed to evaluate the potential association between body mass index (BMI) and histamine skin reactivity in children. Methods: A total of 451 children (246 boys, 205 girls) aged 7–8 years were enrolled in this study. The skin prick test was performed with 26 aeroallergens commonly found in Korea. Other information was collected, including sex, age, BMI, parental allergy history, and parental smoking status. Multivariate analysis was used to confirm the association between histamine skin reactivity and BMI. Results: The histamine wheal size was revealed to be associated with BMI (Spearman's Rho 0.161, p < 0.001). This association was confirmed by multivariate analysis, after adjusting for sex, age, parental allergy history, parental smoking status, and allergic sensitization (coefficient B 0.071, 95% confidence interval 0.030–0.112). Conclusions: Skin responses to histamine were primarily correlated with increased BMI. Further studies are needed to understand the clinical implication of BMI when interpreting the results of skin prick test.

Keywords: allergy, body mass index, histamine, skin prick test

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Viktor M. Denisov

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A robust sequential nonparametric method is proposed for adaptation to background noise parameters for real-time. The distribution of background noise was modelled like to Huber contamination mixture. The method is designed to operate as an adaptation-unit, which is included inside a detection subsystem of an integrated multichannel monitoring system. The proposed method guarantees the given size of a nonasymptotic confidence set for noise parameters. Properties of the suggested method are rigorously proved. The proposed algorithm has been successfully tested in real conditions of a functioning C-OTDR monitoring system, which was designed to monitor railways.

Keywords: guaranteed estimation, multichannel monitoring systems, non-asymptotic confidence set, contamination mixture

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Authors: Muhammad Kamran Hanif Khan, Fahad Mushtaq

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Background: In both developed and underdeveloped countries, coronary artery disease (CAD) is a serious cause of death and disability. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is becoming more prevalent in emerging countries like Pakistan due to the spread and acceptance of Western lifestyles. Material and Methods: An observational cross-sectional investigation was conducted, and data collection relied on a random cluster sampling method. The sample size for this cross-sectional study was calculated using the following factors: estimated true proportion of 17.5%, desired precision of 2%, and confidence interval of 95%. The data for this study was collected from a sample of 1387 adults. Results: The average age of those living in rural areas is 55.24 years, compared to 52.60 years for those living in urban areas. The mean fasting blood glucose of the urban participants is 105.28 mg/dL, which is higher than the mean fasting blood glucose of the rural participants, which is 102.06 mg/dL. The mean total cholesterol of the urban participants is 192.20 mg/dL, which is slightly higher than the mean total cholesterol of the rural participants, which is 191.97 mg/dL. CAD prevalence is greater in urban areas than in rural areas. ECG abnormalities prevalence is 16.1% in females compared to 12.5% in men. Conclusion: The prevalence of CAD is more common in urban areas than in rural ones for all of the measures of CAD used in the study.

Keywords: CVD prevalence, CVD risk factors, rural area, urban area

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Authors: Jiahao Tian, Michael D. Porter

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Law enforcement agencies are tasked with crime prevention and crime reduction under limited resources. Having an accurate temporal estimate of the crime rate would be valuable to achieve such a goal. However, estimation is usually complicated by the interval-censored nature of crime data. We cast the problem of intensity estimation as a Poisson regression using an EM algorithm to estimate the parameters. Two special penalties are added that provide smoothness over the time of day and day of the week. This approach presented here provides accurate intensity estimates and can also uncover day-of-week clusters that share the same intensity patterns. Anticipating where and when crimes might occur is a key element to successful policing strategies. However, this task is complicated by the presence of interval-censored data. The censored data refers to the type of data that the event time is only known to lie within an interval instead of being observed exactly. This type of data is prevailing in the field of criminology because of the absence of victims for certain types of crime. Despite its importance, the research in temporal analysis of crime has lagged behind the spatial component. Inspired by the success of solving crime-related problems with a statistical approach, we propose a statistical model for the temporal intensity estimation of crime with censored data. The model is built on Poisson regression and has special penalty terms added to the likelihood. An EM algorithm was derived to obtain maximum likelihood estimates, and the resulting model shows superior performance to the competing model. Our research is in line with the smart policing initiative (SPI) proposed by the Bureau Justice of Assistance (BJA) as an effort to support law enforcement agencies in building evidence-based, data-driven law enforcement tactics. The goal is to identify strategic approaches that are effective in crime prevention and reduction. In our case, we allow agencies to deploy their resources for a relatively short period of time to achieve the maximum level of crime reduction. By analyzing a particular area within cities where data are available, our proposed approach could not only provide an accurate estimate of intensities for the time unit considered but a time-variation crime incidence pattern. Both will be helpful in the allocation of limited resources by either improving the existing patrol plan with the understanding of the discovery of the day of week cluster or supporting extra resources available.

Keywords: cluster detection, EM algorithm, interval censoring, intensity estimation

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Authors: Krishna Dahiya, Esha Charaya

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Induction of labour is a common obstetrical intervention. Around 1 in every 4 patient undergo induction of labour for different indications Purpose: To study the efficacy of the combination of Foley bulb and vaginal misoprostol in comparison to vaginal misoprostol alone for cervical ripening and induction of labour. Methods: A prospective randomised study was conducted on 150 patients with term singleton pregnancy admitted for induction of labour. Seventy-five patients were induced with both Foley bulb, and vaginal misoprostol and another 75 were given vaginal misoprostol alone for induction of labour. Both groups were then compared with respect to change in Bishop score, induction to the active phase of labour interval, induction delivery interval, duration of labour, maternal complications and neonatal outcomes. Data was analysed using statistical software SPSS version 11.5. Tests with P,.05 were considered significant. Results: The two groups were comparable with respect to maternal age, parity, gestational age, indication for induction, and initial Bishop scores. Both groups had a significant change in Bishop score (2.99 ± 1.72 and 2.17 ± 1.48 respectively with statistically significant difference (p=0.001 S, 95% C.I. -0.1978 to 0.8378). Mean induction to delivery interval was significantly lower in the combination group (11.76 ± 5.89 hours) than misoprostol group (14.54 ± 7.32 hours). Difference was of 2.78 hours (p=0.018,S, 95% CI -5.1042 to -0.4558). Induction to delivery interval was significantly lower in nulliparous women of combination group (13.64 ± 5.75 hours) than misoprostol group (18.4±7.09 hours), and the difference was of 4.76 hours (p=0.002, S, 95% CI 1.0465 to 14.7335). There was no difference between the groups in the mode of delivery, infant weight, Apgar score and intrapartum complications. Conclusion: From the present study it was concluded that addition of Foley catheter to vaginal misoprostol have the synergistic effect and results in early cervical ripening and delivery. These results suggest that the combination may be used to achieve timely and safe delivery in the presence of an unfavorable cervix. A combination of the Foley bulb and vaginal misoprostol resulted in a shorter induction-to-delivery time when compared with vaginal misoprostol alone without increasing labor complications.

Keywords: Bishop score, Foley catheter, induction of labor, misoprostol

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Authors: Huazhen Lin, Ruihua Xu, Zhibin Jiang

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In this real-world case, timetabling the LRT network as a whole is rather challenging for the operator: they are supposed to create a timetable to avoid various route conflicts manually while satisfying a given interval and the number of rolling stocks, but the outcome is not satisfying. Therefore, the operator adopts a computerised timetabling tool, the Train Plan Maker (TPM), to cope with this problem. However, with various constraints in the dual-line network, it is still difficult to find an adequate pairing of turnback time, interval and rolling stocks’ number, which requires extra manual intervention. Aiming at current problems, a one-off model for timetabling is presented in this paper to simplify the procedure of timetabling. Before the timetabling procedure starts, this paper presents how the dual-line system with a ring and several branches is turned into a simpler structure. Then, a non-linear programming model is presented in two stages. In the first stage, the model sets a series of constraints aiming to calculate a proper timing for coordinating two lines by adjusting the turnback time at termini. Then, based on the result of the first stage, the model introduces a series of inequality constraints to avoid various route conflicts. With this model, an analysis is conducted to reveal the relation between the ratio of trains in different directions and the possible minimum interval, observing that the more imbalance the ratio is, the less possible to provide frequent service under such strict constraints.

Keywords: light rail transit (LRT), non-linear programming, railway timetabling, timetable coordination

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Authors: Shan Faiz, Arfat Anis, Saeed M. Al-Zarani

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High density polyethylene (HDPE) and poly benzimidazole fiber (PBI) composites were prepared by melt blending in a twin screw extruder (TSE). The thermo-mechanical properties of PBI fiber reinforced HDPE composite samples (1%, 4% and 8% fiber content) of fiber lengths 3 mm and 6 mm were investigated using differential scanning calorimeter (DSC), universal testing machine (UTM), rheometer and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The effect of fiber content and fiber lengths on the thermo-mechanical properties of the HDPE-PBI composites was studied. The DSC analysis showed decrease in crystallinity of HDPE-PBI composites with the increase of fiber loading. Maximum decrease observed was 12% at 8% fiber length. The thermal stability was found to increase with the addition of fiber. T50% was notably increased to 40oC for both grades of HDPE using 8% of fiber content. The mechanical properties were not much affected by the increase in fiber content. The optimum value of tensile strength was achieved using 4% fiber content and slight increase of 9% in tensile strength was observed. No noticeable change was observed in flexural strength. In rheology study, the complex viscosities of HDPE-PBI composites were higher than the HDPE matrix and substantially increased with even minimum increase of PBI fiber loading i.e. 1%. We found that the addition of the PBI fiber resulted in a modest improvement in the thermal stability and mechanical properties of the prepared composites.

Keywords: PBI fiber, high density polyethylene, composites, melt blending

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Authors: T. O. Ajewole, K. S. Olorunmiaye, D. A. Animasaun, M. Okpeku

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Drought impact on the production of food crops for the benefit of mankind cannot be overemphasized. This study shows the different kind of genes expressed at various level of drought regimes on Basella alba and rubra using a real-time PCR machine. The planting was done in the screen house while the gene expression study was carried out in the laboratory. Sandy-loamy soil was collected and four levels of drought regime was used as treatment and a control experiment was set up for the two vegetables. Drought interval of 5, 10, 15 and 20 days were used as treatments while a control experiment which was not starved of water at any point was also set up, five replicates were set up for each treatment. Stress was introduced at 12 Weeks after planting (WAP). From the result of this study, Basella alba shows the highest amplicon size of 34.6 and 52.32 for GmPCS5 and HVA1 respectively which by implication means these genes were expressed the more as the stress period interval increases.

Keywords: water stress, basella alba, basella rubra, HVA1

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Authors: Chuchai Sujivorakul

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This research focused on the study of various parameters of fiber itself affecting on the flexure of hooked steel fiber reinforced concrete (HSFRC). The size of HSFRC beams was 150x150 mm in cross section and 550 mm in length, and the flexural test was carried out in accordance with EN-14651 standard. The test result was the relationship between centre-point load and crack-mount opening displacement (CMOD) at the centre notch. Controlled concrete had a compressive strength of 42 MPa. The investigated variables related to the hooked fiber itself were: (a) 3 levels of aspect ratio of fibers (65, 80 and 100); (b) 2 different fiber lengths (35 mm and 60 mm); (c) 2 different tensile strength of fibers (1100 MPa and 1500 MPa); and (d) 3 different fiber-end geometries (3D 4D and 5D fibers). The 3D hooked fibers have two plastic hinges at both ends, while the 4D and 5D hooked fibers are the newly developed steel fibers by Bekaert, and they have three and four plastic hinges at both ends, respectively. The hooked steel fibers were used in concrete with three different fiber contents, i.e., 20 30 and 40 kg/m³. From the study, it was found that all variables did not seem to affect the flexural strength at limit of proportionality (LOP) of HSFRC. However, they affected the residual flexural tensile strength (fR,j). It was observed that an increase in fiber lengths and the tensile strength the fibers would significantly increase in the fR,j of HSFRC, while the aspect ratio of the fiber would slightly effect the fR,j of HSFRC. Moreover, it was found that using 5D fibers would better enhance the fR,j and flexural behavior of HSFRC than 3D and 4D fibers, because they gave highest mechanical anchorage effect created by their hooked-end geometry.

Keywords: hooked steel fibers, fiber reinforced concrete, EN-14651, flexural test

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Authors: Sally Hosny, Mona G. Ibrahim, N. K. Hassan

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Fiber reinforced polymers (FRP) is one of the most environmentally method for strengthening and retrofitting steel structure buildings. The behaviour of flexural strengthened steel I-beams using FRP was investigated. The finite element (FE) models were developed using ANSYS® as verification cases to simulate the experimental behaviour of using FRP strips to flexure strengthen steel I-beam. Two experimental studies were selected for verification; first examined the effect of different thicknesses and modulus of elasticity while the second studied the effect of applying different carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRP) bond lengths. The proposed FE models were in good agreement with the experimental results in terms of failure modes, load bearing capacities and strain distribution on CFRP strips. The verified FE models can be utilized to conduct a parametric study where various widths (40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 mm), thickness (1.2, 2 and 4 mm) and lengths (1500, 1700 and 1800 mm) of CFRP were analyzed. The results presented clearly revealed that the load bearing capacity was significantly increased (+7%) when the width and thickness were increased. However, load bearing capacity was slightly affected using longer CFRP strips. Moreover, applying another glass fiber reinforced polymers (GFRP) of 1500 mm in length, 50 mm in width and thicknesses of 1.2, 2 and 4 mm were investigated. Load bearing capacity of strengthened I-beams using GFRP is less than CFRP by average 8%. Statistical analysis has been conducted using Minitab®.

Keywords: FRP, strengthened steel I-beams, flexural, FEM, ANSYS

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Authors: Manju Pandey, Nilay Khare, S. C. Shrivastava

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This paper is the final in a series, which has defined two new classes of aggregation operators for triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy numbers based on the geometrical characteristics of their fuzzy membership functions. In the present paper, a new aggregation operator for trapezoidal fuzzy numbers has been defined. The new operator is based on the geometric mean of the membership lines to the left and right of the maximum possibility interval. The operator is defined and the analytical relationships have been derived. Computation of the aggregate is demonstrated with a numerical example. Corresponding arithmetic and geometric aggregates as well as results from the recent work of the authors on TrFN aggregates have also been computed.

Keywords: LR fuzzy number, interval fuzzy number, triangular fuzzy number, trapezoidal fuzzy number, apex angle, left apex angle, right apex angle, aggregation operator, arithmetic and geometric mean

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Authors: Muhammad Zia ul Haq, Ong Kuan Boon, Jeffrey Low Fook Lee, Bendri Bin Dasril, Amna Iqbal, Muhammad Saleem

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This study is bond of two purpose, first is to establish the anthropometric profile of Malaysian cricket batsmen and second, to find the variances among the anthropometric characteristics of ten under-16 years, eight under-19 years and eight senior teams batsmen. The anthropometric variables were measured as 8 skinfolds, 12 circumferences, 06 lengths and 05 breadths, stature, sitting height, arm span, body mass, hand grip strength and leg strength. The batsmen of under-19 and under-16 found similar in skinfolds, sum of skinfolds, circumferences and breadth measurements but significantly lesser than the senior team batsmen. Senior and Under-19 batsmen were almost found similar in segmental lengths, heights and arm span but significantly higher than the under-16 batsmen. Breadth measurements the under-19 found higher than the senior and u-16 batsmen. The hand grips strength of the senior batsmen significantly high than the uder-19 and under-16 players and both groups were similar and no significant difference were found in leg strength of all three groups batsmen. Leg strength were found significant correlation with wrist, hip, thigh, and calf girth and handgrip strength. The hand grip strength were found correlated with all variables except biceps, mid-thigh skinfold, segmental length, humerus breadth. It is concluded from the present study that the girth segments and hand grip strength are the predictors of good performance in cricket batting.

Keywords: cricket batting, batsmen, anthropometry, body segments, hand grip strength

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Authors: E. A. Kiridi, A. O. Ogunlela

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Pollutants from aquacultural practices constitute environmental problems and phytoremediation could offer cheaper environmentally sustainable alternative since equipment using advanced treatment for fish tank effluent is expensive to import, install, operate and maintain, especially in developing countries. The main objective of this research was, therefore, to develop a mathematical model for phytoremediation by aquatic plants in aquaculture wastewater. Other objectives were to evaluate the retention times on phytoremediation rates using the model and to measure the nutrient level of the aquaculture effluent and phytoremediation rates of three aquatic macrophytes, namely; water hyacinth (Eichornia crassippes), water lettuce (Pistial stratoites) and morning glory (Ipomea asarifolia). A completely randomized experimental design was used in the study. Approximately 100 g of each macrophyte were introduced into the hydroponic units and phytoremediation indices monitored at 8 different intervals from the first to the 28th day. The water quality parameters measured were pH and electrical conductivity (EC). Others were concentration of ammonium–nitrogen (NH₄⁺ -N), nitrite- nitrogen (NO₂⁻ -N), nitrate- nitrogen (NO₃⁻ -N), phosphate –phosphorus (PO₄³⁻ -P), and biomass value. The biomass produced by water hyacinth was 438.2 g, 600.7 g, 688.2 g and 725.7 g at four 7–day intervals. The corresponding values for water lettuce were 361.2 g, 498.7 g, 561.2 g and 623.7 g and for morning glory were 417.0 g, 567.0 g, 642.0 g and 679.5g. Coefficient of determination was greater than 80% for EC, TDS, NO₂⁻ -N, NO₃⁻ -N and 70% for NH₄⁺ -N using any of the macrophytes and the predicted values were within the 95% confidence interval of measured values. Therefore, the model is valuable in the design and operation of phytoremediation systems for aquaculture effluent.

Keywords: aquaculture effluent, macrophytes, mathematical model, phytoremediation

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Authors: P. B. Thumar

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Today’s athletes face acute and unique challenges as the competition standards are higher and tougher. There are certain moments during a competition that appear to carry great psychological significance when the momentum starts to shift in one direction or another. These situations require athletes to remain completely focused and calm in facing the difficult circumstances. The purpose of the study was to compare the Mental Toughness level among the players of the team and individual sports. Purposive sampling was done in which subjects for the present study were the male students of The M. S. University of Baroda, Vadodara studying various courses in the academic year 2014-15. Thus, a total number of 120 boys were identified and included in the study from which 60 boys had participated in individual sports and 60 in team sports. ‘The Mental Toughness Questionnaire’ prepared by Dr. Alan Goldberg was used to determine mental toughness level of the players of the team and individual sports. The scores arrived from 60 individual players and 60 team players were compared by applying the t-test. Significant difference was found on overall Mental Toughness and in subcomponents there was significant difference in ability to handle pressure, concentration and confidence whereas there was no significant difference in reboundability and motivation among team and individual sports players. This could be largely due the nature of both sports. Team players of MSU found to be having more overall mental toughness, and team players are able to handle pressure more than individual players, can concentrate more and are also more confident while playing in the team. Team preparation and training prior to competition could have increased the level of ability to handle pressure, concentration and confidence of team players.

Keywords: mental toughness, reboundability, confidence, team sports, individual sports

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Authors: Rachel S. E. Lim, Winnie L. C. Tan

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Visual literacy is about making meaning through the interaction of images, words, and sounds. Graphic communication students typically develop visual literacy through critique and production of studio-based projects for their portfolios. However, the abrupt switch to online learning during the COVID-19 pandemic has made it necessary to consider new strategies of visualization and planning to scaffold teaching and learning. This study, therefore, investigated how MIRO, a cloud-based visual collaboration platform, could be used to develop the visual literacy confidence of 30 diploma in graphic communication students attending a graphic design course at a Singapore arts institution. Due to COVID-19, the course was taught fully online throughout a 16-week semester. Guided by Kolb’s Experiential Learning Cycle, the two lecturers developed students’ engagement with visual literacy concepts through different activities that facilitated concrete experiences, reflective observation, abstract conceptualization, and active experimentation. Throughout the semester, students create, collaborate, and centralize communication in MIRO with infinite canvas, smart frameworks, a robust set of widgets (i.e., sticky notes, freeform pen, shapes, arrows, smart drawing, emoticons, etc.), and powerful platform capabilities that enable asynchronous and synchronous feedback and interaction. Students then drew upon these multimodal experiences to brainstorm, research, and develop their motion design project. A survey was used to examine students’ perceptions of engagement (E), confidence (C), learning strategies (LS). Using multiple regression, it¬ was found that the use of MIRO helped students develop confidence (C) with visual literacy, which predicted performance score (PS) that was measured against their application of visual literacy to the creation of their motion design project. While students’ learning strategies (LS) with MIRO did not directly predict confidence (C) or performance score (PS), it fostered positive perceptions of engagement (E) which in turn predicted confidence (C). Content analysis of students’ open-ended survey responses about their learning strategies (LS) showed that MIRO provides organization and structure in documenting learning progress, in tandem with establishing standards and expectations as a preparatory ground for generating feedback. With the clarity and sequence of the mentioned conditions set in place, these prerequisites then lead to the next level of personal action for self-reflection, self-directed learning, and time management. The study results show that the affordances of MIRO can develop visual literacy and make up for the potential pitfalls of student isolation, communication, and engagement during online learning. The context of how MIRO could be used by lecturers to orientate students for learning in visual literacy and studio-based projects for future development are discussed.

Keywords: design education, graphic communication, online learning, visual literacy

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Authors: Sanath Kumar Shetty, Sanya Sinha, K. Kamalakanth Shenoy

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The posterior reference for the ala tragal line is a cause of confusion, with different authors suggesting different locations as to the superior, middle or inferior part of the tragus. This study was conducted on 200 subjects to evaluate if any correlation exists between the variation of angulation of palatal throat form and the relative parallelism of occlusal plane to ala-tragal line at different tragal levels. A Custom made Occlusal Plane Analyzer was used to check the parallelism between the ala-tragal line and occlusal plane. A lateral cephalogram was shot for each subject to measure the angulation of the palatal throat form. Fisher’s exact test was used to evaluate the correlation between the angulation of the palatal throat form and the relative parallelism of occlusal plane to the ala tragal line. Also, a classification was formulated for the palatal throat form, based on confidence interval. From the results of the study, the inferior part, middle part and superior part of the tragus were seen as the reference points in 49.5%, 32% and 18.5% of the subjects respectively. Class I palatal throat form (41degree-50 degree), Class II palatal throat form (below 41 degree) and Class III palatal throat form (above 50 degree) were seen in 42%, 43% and 15% of the subjects respectively. It was also concluded that there is no significant correlation between the variation in the angulations of the palatal throat form and the relative parallelism of occlusal plane to the ala-tragal line.

Keywords: Ala-Tragal line, occlusal plane, palatal throat form, cephalometry

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Authors: Dilek Yalız Solmaz

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Meta-cognition is an important factor for educating conscious individuals who are aware of their cognitive processes. With this respect, the purposes of this article is to find out the perceived metacognition level of Physical Education and Sports School students at Anadolu University and to identify whether metacognition levels display significant differences in terms of various variables. 416 Anadolu University Physical Education and Sports School students were formed the research universe. "The Meta-Cognitions Questionnaire (MCQ-30)" developed by Cartwright-Hatton and Wells and later developed the 30-item short form (MCQ-30) was used. The MCQ-30 which was adapted into Turkish by Tosun and Irak is a four-point agreement scale. In the data analysis, arithmethic mean, standard deviation, t-test and ANOVA were used. There is no statistical difference between mean scores of uncontrollableness and danger, cognitive awareness, cognitive confidence and the positive beliefs of girls and boys students. There is a statistical difference between mean scores of the need to control thinking. There is no statistical difference according to departments of students between mean scores of uncontrollableness and danger, cognitive awareness, cognitive confidence, need to control thinking and the positive beliefs. There is no statistical difference according to grade level of students between mean scores of the positive beliefs, cognitive confidence and need to control thinking. There is a statistical difference between mean scores of uncontrollableness and danger and cognitive awareness.

Keywords: meta cognition, physical education, sports school students, thinking

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Authors: Katerine Moraes dos Satons, Gisele Massante Peixoto Tracera, Regina Célia Gollner Zeitoune

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To analyze the psychosocial risks related to the organization of nursing work in outpatient clinics of university hospitals. Cross-sectional epidemiological study developed in 11 outpatient units linked to the three public universities of the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Participants were 388 nursing professionals who worked in patient care at the time of the research. Data were collected from July to December 2018, using a self-applicable instrument. A questionnaire was used for sociodemographic, occupational and health characterization, and the Work Organization Scale. The bivariate analyses were performed using the odds ratio (OR), with a confidence interval of 95%, significance level of 5%. The organization of nursing work received an assessment of medium psychosocial risk by the professionals participating in the research, demanding interventions in the short and medium term. There was no association between sociodemographic, occupational and health characteristics and the organization of outpatient work. Interventional measures should be performed in the psychosocial risk factors presented in this research, with a view to improving the work environment, so that the importance of maintaining satisfactory material conditions is considered, as well as the adequate quantity of human resources. In addition, it aims to expand the spaces of nursing participation in decision- making, strengthening its autonomy as a profession.

Keywords: occupational risks, nursing, nursing team, worker’s health, psychosocial risks

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Authors: Sonia Pajaron, Flaviano Sentina, Ranulfo Etulle

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Learning a second language calls for a total commitment from the learner whose response is necessary to successfully send and receive linguistic messages. It is relevant to virtually every aspect of human behaviour which is even more challenging when the components on -affective domains- are involved in second language learning. This study investigated the association between the identified affective attributes and second language performance of the one hundred seventeen (117) randomly selected third year maritime students. A descriptive-correlational method was utilized to generate data on their affective attributes while composition writing (2 series) and IELTS-based interview was done for speaking test. Additionally, to establish the respondents’ English language profile, data on their high school grades (GPA), entrance exam results in English subject (written) as well as in the interview was extracted as baseline information. Data were subjected to various statistical treatment (average means, percentages and pearson-r moment coefficient correlation) and found out that, Nautical Science and Marine Engineering students were found to have average high school grade, entrance test results, both written and in the interview turned out to be very satisfactory at 50% passing percentage. Varied results were manifested in their affective attributes towards learning the second language. On attitude, nautical science students had true positive attitude while marine engineering had only a moderate positive one. Secondly, the former were positively motivated to learn English while the latter were just moderately motivated. As regards anxiety, both groups embodied a moderate level of anxiety in the English language. Finally, data showed that nautical science students exuded real confidence while the marine engineering group had only moderate confidence with the second language. Respondents’ English academic achievement (GWA) was significantly correlated with confidence and speaking with anxiety towards the second language among the students from the nautical science group with moderate positive and low negative degree of correlation, respectively. On the other hand, the marine engineering students’ speaking test result was significantly correlated with anxiety and self-confidence with a moderate negative and low positive degree of correlation, respectively while writing was significantly correlated with motivation bearing a low positive degree of correlation.

Keywords: affective attributes, second language, second language performance, anxiety, attitude, self-confidence and motivation

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Authors: Bistra Kunovska, Kremena Ivanova, Jana Djounova, Desislava Djunakova, Zdenka Stojanovska

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The carcinogenic effects of radon as a radioactive noble gas have been studied and show a strong correlation between radon exposure and lung cancer occurrence, even in the case of low radon levels. The major part of the natural radiation dose in humans is received by inhaling radon and its progenies, which originates from the decay chain of U-238. Indoor radon poses a substantial threat to human health when build-up occurs in confined spaces such as homes, mines and caves and the risk increases with the duration of radon exposure and is proportional to both the radon concentration and the time of exposure. Tourist caves are a case of special environmental conditions that may be affected by high radon concentration. Tourist caves are a recognized danger in terms of radon exposure to cave workers (guides, employees working in shops built above the cave entrances, etc.), but due to the sensitive nature of the cave environment, high concentrations cannot be easily removed. Forced ventilation of the air in the caves is considered unthinkable due to the possible harmful effects on the microclimate, flora and fauna. The risks to human health posed by exposure to elevated radon levels in caves are not well documented. Various studies around the world often detail very high concentrations of radon in caves and exposure of employees but without a follow-up assessment of the overall impact on human health. This study was developed in the implementation of a national project to assess the potential health effects caused by exposure to elevated levels of radon in buildings with public access under the National Science Fund of Bulgaria, in the framework of grant No КП-06-Н23/1/07.12.2018. The purpose of the work is to assess the radon level in Bulgarian caves and the exposure of the visitors and workers. The number of caves (sampling size) was calculated for simple random selection from total available caves 65 (sampling population) are 13 caves with confidence level 95 % and confidence interval (margin of error) approximately 25 %. A measurement of the radon concentration in air at specific locations in caves was done by using CR-39 type nuclear track-etch detectors that were placed by the participants in the research team. Despite the fact that all of the caves were formed in karst rocks, the radon levels were rather different from each other (97–7575 Bq/m3). An assessment of the influence of the orientation of the caves in the earth's surface (horizontal, inclined, vertical) on the radon concentration was performed. Evaluation of health hazards and radon risk exposure causing by inhaling the radon and its daughter products in each surveyed caves was done. Reducing the time spent in the cave has been recommended in order to decrease the exposure of workers.

Keywords: tourist caves, radon concentration, exposure, Bulgaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Mohsen Abdelrazek Khorshid Ali Selim

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Disadvantages and errors of current concrete reinforcement methodsL: Current concrete reinforcement methods are adopted in most parts of the world in their various doctrines and names. They adopt the so-called concrete slab system, where these slabs are semi-independent and isolated from each other and from the surrounding environment of concrete columns or beams, so that the reinforcing steel does not cross from one slab to another or from one slab to adjacent columns. It or the beams surrounding it and vice versa are only a few centimeters and no more. The same applies exactly to the concrete columns that support the building, where the reinforcing steel does not extend from the slabs or beams to the inside of the columns or vice versa except for a few centimeters and no more, just as the reinforcing steel does not extend from inside the column at the top. The ceiling is only a few centimetres, and the same thing is literally repeated in the concrete beams that connect the columns and separate the slabs, where the reinforcing steel does not cross from one beam to another or from one beam to the slabs or columns adjacent to it and vice versa, except for a few centimeters, which makes the basic building elements of columns, slabs and beams They all work in isolation from each other and from the environment surrounding them from all sides. This traditional method of reinforcement may be valid and lasting in geographical areas that are not exposed to earthquakes and earthquakes, where all the loads and tensile forces in the building are constantly directed vertically downward due to gravity and are borne directly by the vertical reinforcement of the building. However, in the case of earthquakes and earthquakes, the loads and tensile forces in the building shift from the vertical direction to the horizontal direction at an angle of inclination that depends on the strength of the earthquake, and most of them are borne by the horizontal reinforcement extending between the basic elements of the building, such as columns, slabs and beams, and since the crossing of the reinforcement between each of the columns, slabs and beams between them And each other, and vice versa, does not exceed several centimeters. In any case, the tensile strength, cohesion and bonding between the various parts of the building are very weak, which causes the buildings to disintegrate and collapse in the horrific manner that we saw in the earthquake in Turkey and Syria in February 2023, which caused the collapse of tens of thousands of buildings in A few seconds later, it left more than 50,000 dead, hundreds of thousands injured, and millions displaced. Description of the new earthquake-resistant model: The idea of the new model in the reinforcement of concrete buildings and constructions is based on the theory that we have formulated as follows: [The tensile strength, cohesion and bonding between the basic parts of the concrete building (columns, beams and slabs) increases as the lengths of the reinforcing steel bars increase and they extend and branch and the different parts of the building share them with each other.] . In other words, the strength, solidity, and cohesion of concrete buildings increase and they become resistant to earthquakes as the lengths of the reinforcing steel bars increase, extend, branch, and share with the various parts of the building, such as columns, beams, and slabs. That is, the reinforcing skewers of the columns must extend in their lengths without cutting to cross from one floor to another until their end. Likewise, the reinforcing skewers of the beams must extend in their lengths without cutting to cross from one beam to another. The ends of these skewers must rest at the bottom of the columns adjacent to the beams. The same thing applies to the reinforcing skewers of the slabs where they must These skewers should be extended in their lengths without cutting to cross from one tile to another, and the ends of these skewers should rest either under the adjacent columns or inside the beams adjacent to the slabs as follows: First, reinforce the columns: The columns have the lion's share of the reinforcing steel in this model in terms of type and quantity, as the columns contain two types of reinforcing bars. The first type is large-diameter bars that emerge from the base of the building, which are the nerves of the column. These bars must extend over their normal length of 12 meters or more and extend to a height of three floors, if desired. In raising other floors, bars with the same diameter and the same length are added to the top after the second floor. The second type is bars with a smaller diameter, and they are the same ones that are used to reinforce beams and slabs, so that the bars that reinforce the beams and slabs facing each column are bent down inside this column and along the entire length of the column. This requires an order. Most engineers do not prefer it, which is to pour the entire columns and pour the roof at once, but we prefer this method because it enables us to extend the reinforcing bars of both the beams and slabs to the bottom of the columns so that the entire building becomes one concrete block that is cohesive and resistant to earthquakes. Secondly, arming the cameras: The beams' reinforcing skewers must also extend to a full length of 12 meters or more without cutting. The ends of the skewers are bent and dropped inside the column at the beginning of the beam to its bottom. Then the skewers are extended inside the beam so that their other end falls under the facing column at the end of the beam. The skewers may cross over the head of a column. Another passes through another adjacent beam and rests at the bottom of a third column, according to the lengths of each of the skewers and beams. Third, reinforcement of slabs: The slab reinforcing skewers must also extend their entire length, 12 meters or more, without cutting, distinguishing between two cases. The first case is the skewers opposite the columns, and their ends are dropped inside one of the columns. Then the skewers cross inside the adjacent slab and their other end falls below the opposite column. The skewers may cross over The head of the adjacent column passes through another adjacent slab and rests at the bottom of a third column, according to the dimensions of the slabs and the lengths of the skewers. The second case is the skewers opposite the beams, and their ends must be bent in the form of a square or rectangle according to the dimensions of the beam’s width and height, and this square or rectangle is dropped inside the beam at the beginning of the slab, and it serves as The skewers are for the beams, then the skewers are extended along the length of the slab, and at the end of the slab, the skewers are bent down to the bottom of the adjacent beam in the shape of the letter U, after which the skewers are extended inside the adjacent slab, and this is repeated in the same way inside the other adjacent beams until the end of the skewer, then it is bent downward in the form of a square or rectangle inside the beam, as happened. In its beginning.

Keywords: earthquake resistant buildings, earthquake resistant concrete constructions, new technology for reinforcement of concrete buildings, new technology in concrete reinforcement

Procedia PDF Downloads 64