Search results for: contaminant transport model

Authors: Hongbin Yang, Mingxue Liao, Changwen Zheng, Mengyao Kong, Chaohui Liu

Abstract:

Microfacet-based reflection models are widely used to model light reflections for rough surfaces. Microfacet models have become the standard surface material building block for describing specular components with varying roughness; and yet, while they possess many desirable properties as well as produce convincing results, their design ignores important sources of scattering, which can cause a significant loss of energy. Specifically, they only simulate the single scattering on the microfacets and ignore the subsequent interactions. As the roughness increases, the interaction will become more and more important. So a multiple-scattering microfacet model based on specular V-cavity is presented for this important open problem. However, it spends much unnecessary rendering time because of setting the same number of scatterings for different roughness surfaces. In this paper, we design a geometric attenuation term G to compute the BRDF (Bidirectional reflection distribution function) of multiple scattering of rough surfaces. Moreover, we consider determining the number of scattering by deterministic heuristics for different roughness surfaces. As a result, our model produces a similar appearance of the objects with the state of the art model with significantly improved rendering efficiency. Finally, we derive a multiple scattering BRDF based on the original microfacet framework.

Keywords: bidirectional reflection distribution function, BRDF, geometric attenuation term, multiple scattering, V-cavity model

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Anshul Ashu

Abstract:

Computers are applied to the vehicle aerodynamics in two ways. One of two is Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and other is Computer Aided Flow Visualization (CAFV). Out of two CFD is chosen because it shows the result with computer graphics. The simulation of flow field around the vehicle is one of the important CFD applications. The flow field can be solved numerically using panel methods, k-ε method, and direct simulation methods. The spoiler is the tool in vehicle aerodynamics used to minimize unfavorable aerodynamic effects around the vehicle and the parallel spoiler is set of two spoilers which are designed in such a manner that it could effectively reduce the drag. In this study, the standard k-ε model of the simplified version of Bugatti Veyron, Audi R8 and Porsche 911 are used to simulate the external flow field. Flow simulation is done for variable Reynolds number. The flow simulation consists of three different levels, first over the model without a rear spoiler, second for over model with single rear spoiler, and third over the model with parallel rear-spoiler. The second and third level has following parameter: the shape of the spoiler, the angle of attack and attachment position. A thorough analysis of simulations results has been found. And a new parallel spoiler is designed. It shows a little improvement in vehicle aerodynamics with a decrease in vehicle aerodynamic drag and lift. Hence, it leads to good fuel economy and traction force of the model.

Keywords: drag, lift, flow simulation, spoiler

Procedia PDF Downloads 474

Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

Abstract:

This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Masahiro Suzuki, Nobuyuki Okura

Abstract:

The crosswind effect on ground transportations has been extensively investigated for decades. The effect of tornado, however, has been hardly studied in spite of the fact that even heavy ground vehicles, namely, trains were overturned by tornadoes with casualties in the past. Therefore, aerodynamic effects of the tornado on the train were studied by several approaches in this study. First, an experimental facility was developed to clarify aerodynamic forces acting on a vehicle running through a tornado. Our experimental set-up consists of two apparatus. One is a tornado simulator, and the other is a moving model rig. PIV measurements showed that the tornado simulator can generate a swirling-flow field similar to those of the natural tornadoes. The flow field has the maximum tangential velocity of 7.4 m/s and the vortex core radius of 96 mm. The moving model rig makes a 1/40 scale model train of single-car/three-car unit run thorough the swirling flow with the maximum speed of 4.3 m/s. The model car has 72 pressure ports on its surface to estimate the aerodynamic forces. The experimental results show that the aerodynamic forces vary its magnitude and direction depends on the location of the vehicle in the flow field. Second, the aerodynamic forces on the train were estimated by using Rankin vortex model. The Rankin vortex model is a simple tornado model which widely used in the field of civil engineering. The estimated aerodynamic forces on the middle car were fairly good agreement with the experimental results. Effects of the vortex core radius and the path of the train on the aerodynamic forces were investigated using the Rankin vortex model. The results shows that the side and lift forces increases as the vortex core radius increases, while the yawing moment is maximum when the core radius is 0.3875 times of the car length. Third, a computational simulation was conducted to clarify the flow field around the train. The simulated results qualitatively agreed with the experimental ones.

Keywords: aerodynamic force, experimental method, tornado, train

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: K. Petcharaporn, S. Kumchoo

Abstract:

The acidity (citric acid) is one of the chemical contents that can refer to the internal quality and the maturity index of tomato. The titratable acidity (%TA) can be predicted by a non-destructive method prediction by using the transmittance short wavelength (SW-NIR). Spectroscopy in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. The set of 167 tomato samples divided into groups of 117 tomatoes sample for training set and 50 tomatoes sample for test set were used to establish the calibration model to predict and measure %TA by partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique. The spectra were pretreated with MSC pretreatment and it gave the optimal result for calibration model as (R = 0.92, RMSEC = 0.03%) and this model obtained high accuracy result to use for %TA prediction in test set as (R = 0.81, RMSEP = 0.05%). From the result of prediction in test set shown that the transmittance SW-NIR spectroscopy technique can be used for a non-destructive method for %TA prediction of tomatoes.

Keywords: tomato, quality, prediction, transmittance, titratable acidity, citric acid

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Stewart A. Keir, Faik A. Hamad

Abstract:

This study aims to use both analytical and experimental methods of analysis to examine the accuracy of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models that can then be used for more complex analyses, accurately representing more elaborate flow phenomena such as internal shockwaves and boundary layers. The geometry used in the analytical study and CFD model is taken from the experimental rig. The analytical study is undertaken using isentropic and adiabatic relationships and the output of the analytical study, the 'shockwave location tool', is created. The results from the analytical study are then used to optimize the redesign an experimental rig for more favorable placement of pressure taps and gain a much better representation of the shockwaves occurring in the divergent section of the nozzle. The CFD model is then optimized through the selection of different parameters, e.g. turbulence models (Spalart-Almaras, Realizable k-epsilon & Standard k-omega) in order to develop an accurate, robust model. The results from the CFD model can then be directly compared to experimental and analytical results in order to gauge the accuracy of each method of analysis. The CFD model will be used to visualize the variation of various parameters such as velocity/Mach number, pressure and turbulence across the shock. The CFD results will be used to investigate the interaction between the shock wave and the boundary layer. The validated model can then be used to modify the nozzle designs which may offer better performance and ease of manufacture and may present feasible improvements to existing high-speed flow applications.

Keywords: CFD, nozzle, fluent, gas dynamics, shock-wave

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Titanilla Komenda

Abstract:

Human-machine-collaboration defines a direct interaction between humans and machines to fulfil specific tasks. Those so-called collaborative machines are used without fencing and interact with humans in predefined workspaces. Even though, human-machine-collaboration enables a flexible adaption to variable degrees of freedom, industrial applications are rarely found. The reasons for this are not technical progress but rather limitations in planning processes ensuring safety for operators. Until now, humans and machines were mainly considered separately in the planning process, focusing on ergonomics and system performance respectively. Within human-machine-collaboration, those aspects must not be seen in isolation from each other but rather need to be analysed in interaction. Furthermore, a simulation model is needed that can validate the system performance and ensure the safety for the operator at any given time. Following on from this, a holistic simulation model is presented, enabling a simulative representation of collaborative tasks – including both, humans and machines. The presented model does not only include a geometry and a motion model of interacting humans and machines but also a numerical behaviour model of humans as well as a Boole’s probabilistic sensor model. With this, error scenarios can be simulated by validating system behaviour in unplanned situations. As these models can be defined on the basis of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis as well as probabilities of errors, the implementation in a collaborative model is discussed and evaluated regarding limitations and simulation times. The functionality of the model is shown on industrial applications by comparing simulation results with video data. The analysis shows the impact of considering human factors in the planning process in contrast to only meeting system performance. In this sense, an optimisation function is presented that meets the trade-off between human and machine factors and aids in a successful and safe realisation of collaborative scenarios.

Keywords: human-machine-system, human-robot-collaboration, safety, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Ime R. Udotong, Ofonime U. M. John, Justina I. R. Udotong

Abstract:

Ibeno, Nigeria hosts the operational base of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU), a subsidiary of ExxonMobil and the current highest oil and condensate producer in Nigeria. Besides MPNU, other multinational oil companies like Shell Petroleum Development Company Ltd, Elf Petroleum Nigeria Ltd and Nigerian Agip Energy, a subsidiary of ENI E&P operate onshore, on the continental shelf and deep offshore of the Atlantic Ocean in Ibeno, Nigeria, respectively. This study was designed to carry out the survey of the oil impacted sites in Ibeno, Nigeria. A combinations of electrical resistivity (ER), ground penetrating radar (GPR) and physico-chemical as well as microbiological characterization of soils and water samples from the area were carried out. Results obtained revealed that there have been hydrocarbon contaminations of this environment by past crude oil spills as observed from significant concentrations of THC, BTEX and heavy metal contents in the environment. Also, high resistivity values and GPR profiles clearly showing the distribution, thickness and lateral extent of hydrocarbon contamination as represented on the radargram reflector tones corroborates previous significant oil input. Contaminations were of varying degrees, ranging from slight to high, indicating levels of substantial attenuation of crude oil contamination over time. Hydrocarbon pollution of the study area was confirmed by the results of soil and water physico-chemical and microbiological analysis. The levels of THC contamination observed in this study are indicative of high levels of crude oil contamination. Moreover, the display of relatively lower resistivities of locations outside the impacted areas compared to resistivity values within the impacted areas, the 3-D Cartesian images of oil contaminant plume depicted by red, light brown and magenta for high, low and very low oil impacted areas, respectively as well as the high counts of hydrocarbonoclastic microorganisms in excess of 1% confirmed significant recent pollution of the study area.

Keywords: oil-polluted sites, physico-chemical analyses, microbiological characterization, geotechnical investigations, total hydrocarbon content

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Ferdinando Montemari, Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello

Abstract:

The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: flapping dynamics, flight dynamics, system identification, tilt-rotor modeling and simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Shangerganesh Lingeshwaran

Abstract:

In this presentation, we have performed numerical simulations for a reaction-diffusion equation with various nonlinear density-dependent diffusion operators and proliferation functions. The mathematical model represented by parabolic partial differential equation is considered to study the invasion of gliomas (the most common type of brain tumors) and to describe the growth of cancer cells and response to their treatment. The unknown quantity of the given reaction-diffusion equation is the density of cancer cells and the mathematical model based on the proliferation and migration of glioma cells. A standard Galerkin finite element method is used to perform the numerical simulations of the given model. Finally, important observations on the each of nonlinear diffusion functions and proliferation functions are presented with the help of computational results.

Keywords: glioma invasion, nonlinear diffusion, reaction-diffusion, finite eleament method

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Drew Fockler

Abstract:

This research examines how to improve an employee’s experience when transferring between departments within an organization. This research includes a historical review of a Canadian retail organization. Based on this historical review, gaps are identified between current and future visions to show where problems with existing training and development practices need to be resolved to reduce front-line employee turnover within an organization. The strategies within this paper support leaders through the LEAD: Listen, Explore, Act and Develop, Change Management Model. The LEAD Change Management Model supports the change process. This research proposes three possible solutions to improve an employee who is transferring between departments. The best solution to resolve the problem of improving an employee moving between departments experience is creating a Training Manager position within the retail store. A Training Manager position could support both employees and leadership with training and development of staff who are moving between departments. Within this research, an implementation plan using the TransX Model was created. The TransX Model is a hybrid of Leader-Member Exchange Theory and Transformational Leadership Theory to facilitate this organizational change within an organization by creating a common vision. Finally, this research provides the next steps as well as future considerations to enhance the training manager role within an organization.

Keywords: employee transfers, employee engagement, human resources, employee induction, TransX model, lead change management model

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: An-Yi Wang, Wei-Fong Kao, Shin-Han Tsai

Abstract:

Introduction: Information as patient characteristics, resuscitation scene, resuscitation provider perspectives and families wish affects on resuscitation decision-making for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). There is no consistency consensus on how families and emergency physicians approach this decision. The main purpose of our study is to evaluate the characteristics of withholding resuscitation efforts arrival at the hospital. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed patients with OHCA without pre-hospital return-of-spontaneous circulation (ROSC) who was sent to our emergency department (ED) between January 2014 and December 2015. Baseline characteristics, pre-hospital course, and causes of the cardiopulmonary arrest among patients were compared. Results: In 2 years, total 155 arrest patients without pre-hospital ROSC was included. 33(21.3%) patients withhold the resuscitation efforts in ED with mean resuscitation duration 4.45 ± 7.04 minutes after ED arrival. In withholding group, the initial rhythm of arrests was all non-shockable. 9 of them received endotracheal intubation before decision-making. None of the patients in withhold resuscitation group survived to discharge. There was no significant difference among gender, underlying cardiovascular disease, malignancy, chronic renal disease, nor witness collapse between withhold and continue resuscitation groups. Univariate analysis showed there was lower percentage of bystander resuscitation (32.3% vs. 50.4%, p=0.071), and the lower percentage of transport via emergency medical service (EMS) (78.8% vs. 91.8%, p=0.054) in withholding group. Multivariate analysis showed old age (adjusted odds ratio=1.06, 95% C.I.=[1.02-1.11], p<0.05), with underlying respiratory insufficiency (adjusted odds ratio=12.16, 95% C.I.=[3.34-44.29], p<0.05), living at home compared with nursing home (adjusted odds ratio=37.75, 95% C.I.=[1.09-1110.70], p<0.05) were more likely to withhold resuscitation. Transport via EMS was more likely to continue resuscitation (adjusted odds ratio=0.11, 95% C.I.=[0.02-0.71], p<0.05). Conclusion: The decision-making for families and emergency physicians to withhold or continue resuscitation for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is complex and multi-factorial. Continue resuscitation efforts in nursing home residents is high, and further study among this population is warranted.

Keywords: cardiopulmonary resuscitation, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, termination resuscitation, withhold resuscitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Alibakhsh Kasaeian, Mohammad Sameti, Zahra Noori, Mona Rastgoo Bahambari

Abstract:

Nowadays, the parabolic trough solar collector technology has become the most promising large-scale technology among various solar thermal generations. In this paper, a detailed numerical heat transfer model for a parabolic trough collector with nanofluid is presented based on the finite difference approach for which a MATLAB code was developed. The model was used to simulate the performance of a parabolic trough solar collector’s linear receiver, called a heat collector element (HCE). In this model, the heat collector element of the receiver was discretized into several segments in axial directions and energy balances were used for each control volume. All the heat transfer correlations, the thermodynamic equations and the optical properties were considered in details and the set of algebraic equations were solved simultaneously using iterative numerical solutions. The modeling assumptions and limitations are also discussed, along with recommendations for model improvement.

Keywords: heat transfer, nanofluid, numerical analysis, trough

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Aysun Pınarbaşı, Béla Vizvári

Abstract:

The countries are the units that procure the vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The delivered quantities are huge. The countries must bear the inventory holding cost according to the variation of stock quantities. This cost depends on the speed of the vaccination in the country. This speed is time-dependent. The vaccinated portion of the population can be approximated by the cumulative distribution function of the Cauchy distribution. A model is provided for determining the minimal-cost inventory policy, and its optimality conditions are provided. The model is solved for 20 countries for different numbers of procurements. The results reveal the individual behavior of each country. We provide an inventory policy for the pandemic period for the countries. This paper presents a deterministic model for vaccines with a demand rate variable over time for the countries. It is aimed to provide an analytical model to deal with the minimization of holding cost and develop inventory policies regarding this aim to be used for a variety of perishable products such as vaccines. The saturation process is introduced, and an approximation of the vaccination curve of the countries has been discussed. According to this aspect, a deterministic model for inventory policy has been developed.

Keywords: covid-19, vaccination, inventory policy, bounded total demand, inventory holding cost, cauchy distribution, sigmoid function

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Emmanuel Agunloye, Asterios Gavriilidis, Luca Mazzei

Abstract:

Gold nanoparticles are commonly synthesized by reducing chloroauric acid with sodium citrate. This method, referred to as the citrate method, can produce spherical gold nanoparticles (NPs) in the size range 10-150 nm. Gold NPs of this size are useful in many applications. However, the NPs are usually polydisperse and irreproducible. A better understanding of the synthesis mechanisms is thus required. This work thoroughly investigated the only model that describes the synthesis. This model combines mass and population balance equations, describing the NPs synthesis through a sequence of chemical reactions. Chloroauric acid reacts with sodium citrate to form aurous chloride and dicarboxy acetone. The latter organizes aurous chloride in a nucleation step and concurrently degrades into acetone. The unconsumed precursor then grows the formed nuclei. However, depending on the pH, both the precursor and the reducing agent react differently thus affecting the synthesis. In this work, we investigated the model for different conditions of pH, temperature and initial reactant concentrations. To solve the model, we used Parsival, a commercial numerical code, whilst to test it, we considered various conditions studied experimentally by different researchers, for which results are available in the literature. The model poorly predicted the experimental data. We believe that this is because the model does not account for the acid-base properties of both chloroauric acid and sodium citrate.

Keywords: citrate method, gold nanoparticles, Parsival, population balance equations, Turkevich organizer theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Ahmad Umar, Ahmed A. Ibrahim, Mohsen A. Alhamami

Abstract:

This study introduces a facile synthesis method for synthesizing reduced graphene oxide (rGO) nanosheets with surface decoration of polyaniline (PANI). The resultant rGO@PANI nanocomposite (NC) exhibit substantial potential as advanced electrode materials for high-performance supercapacitors. The strategic integration of PANI onto the rGO surface serves dual purposes, effectively mitigating the agglomeration of rGO films and augmenting their utility in supercapacitor applications. The PANI coating manifests a highly porous and nanosized morphology, fostering increased surface area and optimized mass transport by reducing diffusion kinetics. The nanosized structure of PANI contributes to the maximization of active sites, thereby bolstering the efficacy of the nanocomposites for diverse applications. The inherent conductive nature of the rGO surface significantly expedites electron transport, thereby amplifying the overall electrochemical performance of the nanocomposites. To systematically evaluate the influence of PANI concentration on the electrode performance, varying concentrations of PANI were incorporated. Notably, an elevated PANI concentration was found to enhance the response owing to the unique morphology of PANI. Remarkably, the 5% rGO@PANI NC emerged as the most promising candidate, demonstrating exceptional response characteristics with a specific capacitance of 314.2 F/g at a current density of 1 A/g. Furthermore, this catalyst exhibits outstanding long-term stability, retaining approximately 92% of its capacitance even after enduring 4000 cycles. This research underscores the significance of the synergistic integration of rGO and PANI in the design of high-performance supercapacitors. The elucidation of the underlying mechanisms governing the improved electrochemical properties contributes to the fundamental understanding of nanocomposite behavior, thereby paving the way for the rational design of next-generation energy storage materials.

Keywords: reduced graphene oxide, polyaniline, nanocomposites, supercapacitors, energy storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Muhammad Noor Ul Ane, Dong-Soon Kim, Myron P. Zalucki

Abstract:

Models can be useful to help understand population dynamics of insects under diverse environmental conditions and in developing strategies to manage pest species better. Adult longevity and fecundity of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) were evaluated against a wide range of constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 37.5ᵒC). The modified Sharpe and DeMichele model described adult aging rate and was used to estimate adult physiological age. Maximum fecundity of H. armigera was 973 egg/female at 25ᵒC decreasing to 72 eggs/female at 37.5ᵒC. The relationship between adult fecundity and temperature was well described by an extreme value function. Age-specific cumulative oviposition rate and age-specific survival rate were well described by a two-parameter Weibull function and sigmoid function, respectively. An oviposition model was developed using three temperature-dependent components: total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate. The oviposition model was validated against independent field data and described the field occurrence pattern of egg population of H. armigera very well. Our model should be a useful component for population modeling of H. armigera and can be independently used for the timing of sprays in management programs of this key pest species.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, life table, temperature-dependent adult development, temperature-dependent fecundity

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Salako Rotimi, Oshungade Stephen, Ojewoye Opeyemi

Abstract:

The maintenance of price stability is one of the macroeconomic challenges facing Nigeria as a nation. This paper attempts to build a co-integration multivariate time series model for inflation movement in Nigeria using data extracted from the abstract of statistics of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 2008 to 2017. The Johansen cointegration test suggests at least one co-integration vector describing the long run relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI), Food Price Index (FPI) and Non-Food Price Index (NFPI). All three series show increasing pattern, which indicates a sign of non-stationary in each of the series. Furthermore, model predictability was established with root-mean-square-error, mean absolute error, mean average percentage error, and Theil’s unbiased statistics for n-step forecasting. The result depicts that the long run coefficient of a consumer price index (CPI) has a positive long-run relationship with the food price index (FPI) and non-food price index (NFPI).

Keywords: economic, inflation, model, series

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Ilker Ali Ozkan

Abstract:

In this study, an artificial neural network model has been developed to estimate chronic kidney failure which is a common disease. The patients’ age, their blood and biochemical values, and 24 input data which consists of various chronic diseases are used for the estimation process. The input data have been subjected to preprocessing because they contain both missing values and nominal values. 147 patient data which was obtained from the preprocessing have been divided into as 70% training and 30% testing data. As a result of the study, artificial neural network model with 25 neurons in the hidden layer has been found as the model with the lowest error value. Chronic kidney failure disease has been able to be estimated accurately at the rate of 99.3% using this artificial neural network model. The developed artificial neural network has been found successful for the estimation of chronic kidney failure disease using clinical data.

Keywords: estimation, artificial neural network, chronic kidney failure disease, disease diagnosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: Jozef Mindas, Jaroslav Skvarenina, Jana Skvareninova

Abstract:

Study of the effects of climate change on Norway Spruce (Picea abies) forests has mainly focused on the diversity of tree species diversity of tree species as a result of the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes as well as some effects of disturbance regime changes. The tree species’ diversity changes in spruce forests due to climate change have been analyzed via gap model. Forest gap model is a dynamic model for calculation basic characteristics of individual forest trees. Input ecological data for model calculations have been taken from the permanent research plots located in primeval forests in mountainous regions in Slovakia. The results of regional scenarios of the climatic change for the territory of Slovakia have been used, from which the values are according to the CGCM3.1 (global) model, KNMI and MPI (regional) models. Model results for conditions of the climate change scenarios suggest a shift of the upper forest limit to the region of the present subalpine zone, in supramontane zone. N. spruce representation will decrease at the expense of beech and precious broadleaved species (Acer sp., Sorbus sp., Fraxinus sp.). The most significant tree species diversity changes have been identified for the upper tree line and current belt of dwarf pine (Pinus mugo) occurrence. The results have been also discussed in relation to most important disturbances (wind storms, snow and ice storms) and phenological changes which consequences are little known. Special discussion is focused on biomass production changes in relation to carbon storage diversity in different carbon pools.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, Norway spruce forests, gap model

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Amirhossein Chambari

Abstract:

This article proposes a bi-objective model for the facility location problem subject to congestion (overcrowding). Motivated by implementations to locate servers in internet mirror sites, communication networks, one-server-systems, so on. This model consider for situations in which immobile (or fixed) service facilities are congested (or queued) by stochastic demand to behave as M/M/1/K queues. We consider for this problem two simultaneous perspectives; (1) Customers (desire to limit times of accessing and waiting for service) and (2) Service provider (desire to limit average facility idle-time). A bi-objective model is setup for facility location problem with two objective functions; (1) Minimizing sum of expected total traveling and waiting time (customers) and (2) Minimizing the average facility idle-time percentage (service provider). The proposed model belongs to the class of mixed-integer nonlinear programming models and the class of NP-hard problems. In addition, to solve the model, controlled elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithms (Controlled NSGA-II) and controlled elitist non-dominated ranking genetic algorithms (NRGA-I) are proposed. Furthermore, the two proposed metaheuristics algorithms are evaluated by establishing standard multiobjective metrics. Finally, the results are analyzed and some conclusions are given.

Keywords: bi-objective, facility location, queueing, controlled NSGA-II, NRGA-I

Procedia PDF Downloads 567

Authors: Misagh Faezipour

Abstract:

System dynamics is a systems engineering approach that can help address the complex challenges in different systems. Little is known about how the brain represents people to predict behavior. This work is based on how the brain simulates different personal behavior and responds to them in the case of young children ages one to five. As we know, children’s minds/brains are just as clean as a crystal, and throughout time, in their surroundings, families, and education center, they grow to develop and have different kinds of behavior towards the world and the society they live in. Hence, this work aims to identify how young children respond to various personality behavior and observes their reactions towards them from a system dynamics perspective. We will be exploring the Big Five personality traits in young children. A causal model is developed in support of the system dynamics approach. These models graphically present the factors and factor relationships that contribute to the big five personality traits and provide a better understanding of the entire behavior model. A simulator will be developed that includes a set of causal model factors and factor relationships. The simulator models the behavior of different factors related to personality traits and their impacts and can help make more informed decisions in a risk-free environment.

Keywords: personality traits, systems engineering, system dynamics, causal model, behavior model

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Shubham Dwivedi, Raghavender Medishetti, Rita Rani, Aarti Sevilimedu, Pushkar Kulkarni, Yogeeswari Perumal

Abstract:

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder of early onset, characterized by impaired sociability, cognitive function and stereotypies. There is a significant urge to develop and establish new animal models with ASD-like characteristics for better understanding of underlying mechanisms. The aim of the present study was to develop a cost and time effective zebrafish model with quantifiable parameters to facilitate mechanistic studies as well as high-throughput screening of new molecules for autism. Zebrafish embryos were treated with valproic acid and a battery of behavioral tests (anxiety, inattentive behavior, irritability and social impairment) was performed on larvae at 7th day post fertilization, followed by study of molecular markers of autism. This model shows a significant behavioural impairment in valproic acid treated larvae in comparison to control which was again supported by alteration in few marker genes and proteins of autism. The model also shows a rescue of behavioural despair with positive control drugs. The model shows robust parameters to study behavior, molecular mechanism and drug screening approach in a single frame. Thus we postulate that our 7 days zebrafish larval model for autism can help in high throughput screening of new molecules on autism.

Keywords: autism, zebrafish, valproic acid, neurodevelopment, behavioral assay

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

Abstract:

Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Huda Al Shuaily, Karen Renaud

Abstract:

Databases comprise the foundation of most software systems. System developers inevitably write code to query these databases. The de facto language for querying is SQL and this, consequently, is the default language taught by higher education institutions. There is evidence that learners find it hard to master SQL, harder than mastering other programming languages such as Java. Educators do not agree about explanations for this seeming anomaly. Further investigation may well reveal the reasons. In this paper, we report on our investigations into how novices learn SQL, the actual problems they experience when writing SQL, as well as the differences between expert and novice SQL query writers. We conclude by presenting a model of SQL learning that should inform the instructional material design process better to support the SQL learning process.

Keywords: pattern, SQL, learning, model

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: C. Surmei

Abstract:

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a complex developmental disorder that can affect an individual’s (but is not limited to) cognitive development, emotional development, language acquisition and the capability to relate to others. Ecological Systems Theory is a sociocultural theory that focuses on environmental systems with which an individual interacts. The SCERTS Model is an educational approach and multidisciplinary framework that addresses the challenges confronted by individuals on the autism spectrum and other developmental disabilities. To aid the understanding of ASD and educational philosophies for families, educators, and the global community alike, a Comparative Analysis was undertaken to examine key variables (the child, society, education, nurture/care, relationships, communication). The results indicated that the Ecological Systems Theory and the SCERTS Model were comparable in focus, motivation, and application, attaining to a viable and notable relationship between both theories. This paper unpacks two child development philosophies and their relationship to each other.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, ecological systems theory, education, SCERTS model

Procedia PDF Downloads 561

Authors: Phakamani Xaba, Robert Huberts, Bilainu Oboirien

Abstract:

The present study was aimed at developing & comparing two neural-network-based predictive models to predict shelf-life/product age of South African margarine using free fatty acid (FFA), water droplet size (D3.3), water droplet distribution (e-sigma), moisture content, peroxide value (PV), anisidine valve (AnV) and total oxidation (totox) value as input variables to the model. Brick margarine products which had varying ages ranging from fresh i.e. week 0 to week 47 were sourced. The brick margarine products which had been stored at 10 & 25 °C and were characterized. JMP and MATLAB models to predict shelf-life/ margarine age were developed and their performances were compared. The key performance indicators to evaluate the model performances were correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) relative to the actual data. The MATLAB-developed model showed a better performance in all three performance indicators. The correlation coefficient of the MATLAB model was 99.86% versus 99.74% for the JMP model, the RMSE was 0.720 compared to 1.005 and the MAPE was 7.4% compared to 8.571%. The MATLAB model was selected to be the most accurate, and then, the number of hidden neurons/ nodes was optimized to develop a single predictive model. The optimized MATLAB with 10 neurons showed a better performance compared to the models with 1 & 5 hidden neurons. The developed models can be used by margarine manufacturers, food research institutions, researchers etc, to predict shelf-life/ margarine product age, optimize addition of antioxidants, extend shelf-life of products and proactively troubleshoot for problems related to changes which have an impact on shelf-life of margarine without conducting expensive trials.

Keywords: margarine shelf-life, predictive modelling, neural networks, oil oxidation

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: R. Boudjelthia

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to determine the influence of mix composition of concrete as the content of water and cement, water–binder ratio, and the replacement of fly ash on the durability of self compacting concrete (SCC) by using artificial neural networks (ANNs). To achieve this, an ANNs model is developed to predict the durability of self compacting concrete which is expressed in terms of chloride ions permeability in accordance with ASTM C1202-97 or AASHTO T277. Database gathered from the literature for the training and testing the model. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted using the trained and tested ANN model to investigate the effect of fly ash on the durability of SCC. The results indicate that the developed model is reliable and accurate. the durability of SCC expressed in terms of total charge passed over a 6-h period can be significantly improved by using at least 25% fly ash as replacement of cement. This study show that artificial neural network have strong potentialas a feasible tool for predicting accurately the durability of SCC containing fly ash.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, durability, chloride ions permeability, self compacting concrete

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: T. R. Bandara, H. Jaelani, G. J. Griffin

Abstract:

The conversion of lignocellulosic waste materials, such as sugar cane bagasse, to biofuels such as ethanol has attracted significant interest as a potential element for transforming transport fuel supplies to totally renewable sources. However, the refractory nature of the cellulosic structure of lignocellulosic materials has impeded progress on developing an economic process, whereby the cellulose component may be effectively broken down to glucose monosaccharides and then purified to allow downstream fermentation. Ionic liquid (IL) treatment of lignocellulosic biomass has been shown to disrupt the crystalline structure of cellulose thus potentially enabling the cellulose to be more readily hydrolysed to monosaccharides. Furthermore, conventional hydrolysis of lignocellulosic materials yields byproducts that are inhibitors for efficient fermentation of the monosaccharides. However, selective extraction of monosaccharides from an aqueous/IL phase into an organic phase utilizing a combination of boronic acids and quaternary amines has shown promise as a purification process. Hydrolysis of sugar cane bagasse immersed in an aqueous solution with IL (1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium acetate) was conducted at different pH and temperature below 100 ºC. It was found that the use of a high concentration of hydrochloric acid to acidify the solution inhibited the hydrolysis of bagasse. At high pH (i.e. basic conditions), using sodium hydroxide, catalyst yields were reduced for total reducing sugars (TRS) due to the rapid degradation of the sugars formed. For purification trials, a supported liquid membrane (SLM) apparatus was constructed, whereby a synthetic solution containing xylose and glucose in an aqueous IL phase was transported across a membrane impregnated with phenyl boronic acid/Aliquat 336 to an aqueous phase. The transport rate of xylose was generally higher than that of glucose indicating that a SLM scheme may not only be useful for purifying sugars from undesirable toxic compounds, but also for fractionating sugars to improve fermentation efficiency.

Keywords: biomass, bagasse, hydrolysis, monosaccharide, supported liquid membrane, purification

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Irfan Ali, Srikant Gupta, Aquil Ahmed

Abstract:

Every country needs a sustainable development (SD) for its economic growth by forming suitable policies and initiative programs for the development of different sectors of the country. This paper is comprised of modeling and optimization of different sectors of India that form a multi-criterion model. In this paper, we developed a fractional goal programming (FGP) model that helps in providing the efficient allocation of resources simultaneously by achieving the sustainable goals in gross domestic product (GDP), electricity consumption (EC) and greenhouse gasses (GHG) emission by the year 2030. Also, a weighted model of FGP is presented to obtain varying solution according to the priorities set by the policy maker for achieving future goals of GDP growth, EC, and GHG emission. The presented models provide a useful insight to the decision makers for implementing strategies in a different sector.

Keywords: sustainable and economic development, multi-objective fractional programming, fuzzy goal programming, weighted fuzzy goal programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 214