Search results for: design management
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 20172

Search results for: design management

312 Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation and Hydropower Potential: A Case of Upper Blue Nile Basin in Western Ethiopia

Authors: Elias Jemal Abdella

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The Blue Nile River is an important shared resource of Ethiopia, Sudan and also, because it is the major contributor of water to the main Nile River, Egypt. Despite the potential benefits of regional cooperation and integrated joint basin management, all three countries continue to pursue unilateral plans for development. Besides, there is great uncertainty about the likely impacts of climate change in water availability for existing as well as proposed irrigation and hydropower projects in the Blue Nile Basin. The main objective of this study is to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the upper Blue Nile basin, western Ethiopia. Three models were combined, a dynamic Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate model (RCM) that is used to determine climate projections for the Upper Blue Nile basin for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the period 2021-2050. The outputs generated from multimodel ensemble of four (4) CORDEX-RCMs (i.e., rainfall and temperature) were used as input to a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model which was setup, calibrated and validated with observed climate and hydrological data. The outputs from the SWAT model (i.e., projections in river flow) were used as input to a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) water resources model which was used to determine the water resources implications of the changes in climate. The WEAP model was set-up to simulate three development scenarios. Current Development scenario was the existing water resource development situation, Medium-term Development scenario was planned water resource development that is expected to be commissioned (i.e. before 2025) and Long-term full Development scenario were all planned water resource development likely to be commissioned (i.e. before 2050). The projected change of mean annual temperature for period (2021 – 2050) in most of the basin are warmer than the baseline (1982 -2005) average in the range of 1 to 1.4oC, implying that an increase in evapotranspiration loss. Subbasins which already distressed from drought may endure to face even greater challenges in the future. Projected mean annual precipitation varies from subbasin to subbasin; in the Eastern, North Eastern and South western highland of the basin a likely increase of mean annual precipitation up to 7% whereas in the western lowland part of the basin mean annual precipitation projected to decrease by 3%. The water use simulation indicates that currently irrigation demand in the basin is 1.29 Bm3y-1 for 122,765 ha of irrigation area. By 2025, with new schemes being developed, irrigation demand is estimated to increase to 2.5 Bm3y-1 for 277,779 ha. By 2050, irrigation demand in the basin is estimated to increase to 3.4 Bm3y-1 for 372,779 ha. The hydropower generation simulation indicates that 98 % of hydroelectricity potential could be produced if all planned dams are constructed.

Keywords: Blue Nile River, climate change, hydropower, SWAT, WEAP

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311 The Impact of a Leadership Change on Individuals' Behaviour and Incentives: Evidence from the Top Tier Italian Football League

Authors: Kaori Narita, Juan de Dios Tena Horrillo, Claudio Detotto

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Decisions on replacement of leaders are of significance and high prevalence in any organization, and concerns many of its stakeholders, whether it is a leader in a political party or a CEO of a firm, as indicated by high media coverage of such events. This merits an investigation into the consequences and implications of a leadership change on the performances and behavior of organizations and their workers. Sport economics provides a fruitful field to explore these issues due to the high frequencies of managerial changes in professional sports clubs and the transparency and regularity of observations of team performance and players’ abilities. Much of the existing research on managerial change focuses on how this affects the performance of an organization. However, there is scarcely attention paid to the consequences of such events on the behavior of individuals within the organization. Changes in behavior and attitudes of a group of workers due to a managerial change could be of great interest in management science, psychology, and operational research. On the other hand, these changes cannot be observed in the final outcome of the organization, as this is affected by many other unobserved shocks, for example, the stress level of workers with the need to deal with a difficult situation. To fill this gap, this study shows the first attempt to evaluate the impact of managerial change on players’ behaviors such as attack intensity, aggressiveness, and efforts. The data used in this study is from the top tier Italian football league (“Serie A”), where an average of 13 within season replacements of head coaches were observed over the period of seasons from 2000/2001 to 2017/18. The preliminary estimation employs Pooled Ordinary Least Square (POLS) and club-season Fixed Effect (FE) in order to assess the marginal effect of having a new manager on the number of shots, corners and red/yellow cards after controlling for a home-field advantage, ex ante abilities and current positions in the league of a team and their opponent. The results from this preliminary estimation suggest that the teams do not show a significant difference in their behaviors before and after the managerial change. To build on these preliminary results, other methods, including propensity score matching and non-linear model estimates, will be used. Moreover, the study will further investigate these issues by considering other measurements of attack intensity, aggressiveness, and efforts, such as possessions, a number of fouls and the athletic performance of players, respectively. Finally, the study is going to investigate whether these results vary over the characteristics of a new head coach, for example, their age and experience as a manager and a player. Thus far, this study suggests that certain behaviours of individuals in an organisation are not immediately affected by a change in leadership. To confirm this preliminary finding and lead to a more solid conclusion, further investigation will be conducted in the aforementioned manner, and the results will be elaborated in the conference.

Keywords: behaviour, effort, manager characteristics, managerial change, sport economics

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310 Auditory Rehabilitation via an VR Serious Game for Children with Cochlear Implants: Bio-Behavioral Outcomes

Authors: Areti Okalidou, Paul D. Hatzigiannakoglou, Aikaterini Vatou, George Kyriafinis

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Young children are nowadays adept at using technology. Hence, computer-based auditory training programs (CBATPs) have become increasingly popular in aural rehabilitation for children with hearing loss and/or with cochlear implants (CI). Yet, their clinical utility for prognostic, diagnostic, and monitoring purposes has not been explored. The purposes of the study were: a) to develop an updated version of the auditory rehabilitation tool for Greek-speaking children with cochlear implants, b) to develop a database for behavioral responses, and c) to compare accuracy rates and reaction times in children differing in hearing status and other medical and demographic characteristics, in order to assess the tool’s clinical utility in prognosis, diagnosis, and progress monitoring. The updated version of the auditory rehabilitation tool was developed on a tablet, retaining the User-Centered Design approach and the elements of the Virtual Reality (VR) serious game. The visual stimuli were farm animals acting in simple game scenarios designed to trigger children’s responses to animal sounds, names, and relevant sentences. Based on an extended version of Erber’s auditory development model, the VR game consisted of six stages, i.e., sound detection, sound discrimination, word discrimination, identification, comprehension of words in a carrier phrase, and comprehension of sentences. A familiarization stage (learning) was set prior to the game. Children’s tactile responses were recorded as correct, false, or impulsive, following a child-dependent set up of a valid delay time after stimulus offset for valid responses. Reaction times were also recorded, and the database was in Εxcel format. The tablet version of the auditory rehabilitation tool was piloted in 22 preschool children with Νormal Ηearing (ΝΗ), which led to improvements. The study took place in clinical settings or at children’s homes. Fifteen children with CI, aged 5;7-12;3 years with post-implantation 0;11-5;1 years used the auditory rehabilitation tool. Eight children with CI were monolingual, two were bilingual and five had additional disabilities. The control groups consisted of 13 children with ΝΗ, aged 2;6-9;11 years. A comparison of both accuracy rates, as percent correct, and reaction times (in sec) was made at each stage, across hearing status, age, and also, within the CI group, based on presence of additional disability and bilingualism. Both monolingual Greek-speaking children with CI with no additional disabilities and hearing peers showed high accuracy rates at all stages, with performances falling above the 3rd quartile. However, children with normal hearing scored higher than the children with CI, especially in the detection and word discrimination tasks. The reaction time differences between the two groups decreased in language-based tasks. Results for children with CI with additional disability or bilingualism varied. Finally, older children scored higher than younger ones in both groups (CI, NH), but larger differences occurred in children with CI. The interactions between familiarization of the software, age, hearing status and demographic characteristics are discussed. Overall, the VR game is a promising tool for tracking the development of auditory skills, as it provides multi-level longitudinal empirical data. Acknowledgment: This work is part of a project that has received funding from the Research Committee of the University of Macedonia under the Basic Research 2020-21 funding programme.

Keywords: VR serious games, auditory rehabilitation, auditory training, children with cochlear implants

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309 Giving Children with Osteogenesis Imperfecta a Voice: Overview of a Participatory Approach for the Development of an Interactive Communication Tool

Authors: M. Siedlikowski, F. Rauch, A. Tsimicalis

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Osteogenesis Imperfecta (OI) is a genetic disorder of childhood onset that causes frequent fractures after minimal physical stress. To date, OI research has focused on medically- and surgically-oriented outcomes with little attention on the perspective of the affected child. It is a challenge to elicit the child’s voice in health care, in other words, their own perspective on their symptoms, but software development offers a way forward. Sisom (Norwegian acronym derived from ‘Si det som det er’ meaning ‘Tell it as it is’) is an award-winning, rigorously tested, interactive, computerized tool that helps children with chronic illnesses express their symptoms to their clinicians. The successful Sisom software tool, that addresses the child directly, has not yet been adapted to attend to symptoms unique to children with OI. The purpose of this study was to develop a Sisom paper prototype for children with OI by seeking the perspectives of end users, particularly, children with OI and clinicians. Our descriptive qualitative study was conducted at Shriners Hospitals for Children® – Canada, which follows the largest cohort of children with OI in North America. Purposive sampling was used to recruit 12 children with OI over three cycles. Nine clinicians oversaw the development process, which involved determining the relevance of current Sisom symptoms, vignettes, and avatars, as well as generating new Sisom OI components. Data, including field notes, transcribed audio-recordings, and drawings, were deductively analyzed using content analysis techniques. Guided by the following framework, data pertaining to symptoms, vignettes, and avatars were coded into five categories: a) Relevant; b) Irrelevant; c) To modify; d) To add; e) Unsure. Overall, 70.8% of Sisom symptoms were deemed relevant for inclusion, with 49.4% directly incorporated, and 21.3% incorporated with changes to syntax, and/or vignette, and/or location. Three additions were made to the ‘Avatar’ island. This allowed children to celebrate their uniqueness: ‘Makes you feel like you’re not like everybody else.’ One new island, ‘About Me’, was added to capture children’s worldviews. One new sub-island, ‘Getting Around’, was added to reflect accessibility issues. These issues were related to the children’s independence, their social lives, as well as the perceptions of others. In being consulted as experts throughout the co-creation of the Sisom OI paper prototype, children coded the Sisom symptoms and provided sound rationales for their chosen codes. In rationalizing their codes, all children shared personal stories about themselves and their relationships, insights about their OI, and an understanding of the strengths and challenges they experience on a day-to-day basis. The child’s perspective on their health is a basic right, and allowing it to be heard is the next frontier in the care of children with genetic diseases. Sisom OI, a methodological breakthrough within OI research, will offer clinicians an innovative and child-centered approach to capture this neglected perspective. It will provide a tool for the delivery of health care in the center that established the worldwide standard of care for children with OI.

Keywords: child health, interactive computerized communication tool, participatory approach, symptom management

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308 Management of Urine Recovery at the Building Level

Authors: Joao Almeida, Ana Azevedo, Myriam Kanoun-Boule, Maria Ines Santos, Antonio Tadeu

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The effects of the increasing expansion of cities and climate changes have encouraged European countries and regions to adopt nature-based solutions with ability to mitigate environmental issues and improve life in cities. Among these strategies, green roofs and urban gardens have been considered ingenious solutions, since they have the desirable potential to improve air quality, prevent floods, reduce the heat island effect and restore biodiversity in cities. However, an additional consumption of fresh water and mineral nutrients is necessary to sustain larger green urban areas. This communication discusses the main technical features of a new system to manage urine recovery at the building level and its application in green roofs. The depletion of critical nutrients like phosphorus constitutes an emergency. In turn, their elimination through urine is one of the principal causes for their loss. Thus, urine recovery in buildings may offer numerous advantages, constituting a valuable fertilizer abundantly available in cities and reducing the load on wastewater treatment plants. Although several urine-diverting toilets have been developed for this purpose and some experiments using urine directly in agriculture have already been carried out in Europe, several challenges have emerged with this practice concerning collection, sanitization, storage and application of urine in buildings. To our best knowledge, current buildings are not designed to receive these systems and integrated solutions with ability to self-manage the whole process of urine recovery, including separation, maturation and storage phases, are not known. Additionally, if from a hygiene point of view human urine may be considered a relatively safe fertilizer, the risk of disease transmission needs to be carefully analysed. A reduction in microorganisms can be achieved by storing the urine in closed tanks. However, several factors may affect this process, which may result in a higher survival rate for some pathogens. In this work, urine effluent was collected under real conditions, stored in closed containers and kept in climatic chambers under variable conditions simulating cold, temperate and tropical climates. These samples were subjected to a first physicochemical and microbiological control, which was repeated over time. The results obtained so far suggest that maturation conditions were reached for all the three temperatures and that a storage period of less than three months is required to achieve a strong depletion of microorganisms. The authors are grateful for the Project WashOne (POCI-01-0247-FEDER-017461) funded by the Operational Program for Competitiveness and Internationalization (POCI) of Portugal 2020, with the support of the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER).

Keywords: sustainable green roofs and urban gardens, urban nutrient cycle, urine-based fertilizers, urine recovery in buildings

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307 Assessing Moisture Adequacy over Semi-arid and Arid Indian Agricultural Farms using High-Resolution Thermography

Authors: Devansh Desai, Rahul Nigam

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Crop water stress (W) at a given growth stage starts to set in as moisture availability (M) to roots falls below 75% of maximum. It has been found that ratio of crop evapotranspiration (ET) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is an indicator of moisture adequacy and is strongly correlated with ‘M’ and ‘W’. The spatial variability of ET0 is generally less over an agricultural farm of 1-5 ha than ET, which depends on both surface and atmospheric conditions, while the former depends only on atmospheric conditions. Solutions from surface energy balance (SEB) and thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing are now known to estimate latent heat flux of ET. In the present study, ET and moisture adequacy index (MAI) (=ET/ET0) have been estimated over two contrasting western India agricultural farms having rice-wheat system in semi-arid climate and arid grassland system, limited by moisture availability. High-resolution multi-band TIR sensing observations at 65m from ECOSTRESS (ECOsystemSpaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station) instrument on-board International Space Station (ISS) were used in an analytical SEB model, STIC (Surface Temperature Initiated Closure) to estimate ET and MAI. The ancillary variables used in the ET modeling and MAI estimation were land surface albedo, NDVI from close-by LANDSAT data at 30m spatial resolution, ET0 product at 4km spatial resolution from INSAT 3D, meteorological forcing variables from short-range weather forecast on air temperature and relative humidity from NWP model. Farm-scale ET estimates at 65m spatial resolution were found to show low RMSE of 16.6% to 17.5% with R2 >0.8 from 18 datasets as compared to reported errors (25 – 30%) from coarser-scale ET at 1 to 8 km spatial resolution when compared to in situ measurements from eddy covariance systems. The MAI was found to show lower (<0.25) and higher (>0.5) magnitudes in the contrasting agricultural farms. The study showed the potential need of high-resolution high-repeat spaceborne multi-band TIR payloads alongwith optical payload in estimating farm-scale ET and MAI for estimating consumptive water use and water stress. A set of future high-resolution multi-band TIR sensors are planned on-board Indo-French TRISHNA, ESA’s LSTM, NASA’s SBG space-borne missions to address sustainable irrigation water management at farm-scale to improve crop water productivity. These will provide precise and fundamental variables of surface energy balance such as LST (Land Surface Temperature), surface emissivity, albedo and NDVI. A synchronization among these missions is needed in terms of observations, algorithms, product definitions, calibration-validation experiments and downstream applications to maximize the potential benefits.

Keywords: thermal remote sensing, land surface temperature, crop water stress, evapotranspiration

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306 Investigating the Role of Community in Heritage Conservation through the Ladder of Citizen Participation Approach: Case Study, Port Said, Egypt

Authors: Sara S. Fouad, Omneya Messallam

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Egypt has countless prestigious buildings and diversity of cultural heritage which are located in many cities. Most of the researchers, archaeologists, stakeholders and governmental bodies are paying more attention to the big cities such as Cairo and Alexandria, due to the country’s centralization nature. However, there are other historic cities that are grossly neglected and in need of emergency conservation. For instance, Port Said which is a former colonial city that was established in nineteenth century located at the edge of the northeast Egyptian coast between the Mediterranean Sea and the Suez Canal. This city is chosen because it presents one of the important Egyptian archaeological sites that archive Egyptian architecture of the 19th and 20th centuries. The historic urban fabric is divided into three main districts; the Arab, the European (Al-Afrang), and Port Fouad. The European district is selected to be the research case study as it has culture diversity, significant buildings, and includes the largest number of the listed heritage buildings in Port Said. Based on questionnaires and interviews, since 2003 several initiative trials have been taken by Alliance Francaise, the National Organization for Urban Harmony (NOUH), some Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and few number of community residents to highlight the important city legacy and protect it from being demolished. Unfortunately, the limitation of their participation in decision-making policies is considered a crucial threat facing sustainable heritage conservation. Therefore, encouraging the local community to participate in their architecture heritage conservation would create a self-confident one, capable of making decisions for the city’s future development. This paper aims to investigate the role of the local inhabitants in protecting their buildings heritage through listing the community level of participations twice (2012 and 2018) in preserving their heritage based on the ladder citizen participation approach. Also, it is to encourage community participation in order to promote city architecture conservation, heritage management, and sustainable development. The methodology followed in this empirical research involves using several data assembly methods such as structural observations, questionnaires, interviews, and mental mapping. The questionnaire was distributed among 92 local inhabitants aged 18-60 years. However, the outset of this research at the beginning demonstrated the majority negative attitude, motivation, and confidence of the local inhabitants’ role to safeguard their architectural heritage. Over time, there was a change in the negative attitudes. Therefore, raising public awareness and encouraging community participation by providing them with a real opportunity to take part in the decision-making. This may lead to a positive relationship between the community residents and the built heritage, which is essential for promoting its preservation and sustainable development.

Keywords: buildings preservation, community participation, heritage conservation, local inhabitant, ladder of citizen participation

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305 Impact of Simulated Brain Interstitial Fluid Flow on the Chemokine CXC-Chemokine-Ligand-12 Release From an Alginate-Based Hydrogel

Authors: Wiam El Kheir, Anais Dumais, Maude Beaudoin, Bernard Marcos, Nick Virgilio, Benoit Paquette, Nathalie Faucheux, Marc-Antoine Lauzon

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The high infiltrative pattern of glioblastoma multiforme cells (GBM) is the main cause responsible for the actual standard treatments failure. The tumor high heterogeneity, the interstitial fluid flow (IFF) and chemokines guides GBM cells migration in the brain parenchyma resulting in tumor recurrence. Drug delivery systems emerged as an alternative approach to develop effective treatments for the disease. Some recent studies have proposed to harness the effect CXC-lchemokine-ligand-12 to direct and control the cancer cell migration through delivery system. However, the dynamics of the brain environment on the delivery system remains poorly understood. Nanoparticles (NPs) and hydrogels are known as good carriers for the encapsulation of different agents and control their release. We studied the release of CXCL12 (free or loaded into NPs) from an alginate-based hydrogel under static and indirect perfusion (IP) conditions. Under static conditions, the main phenomena driving CXCL12 release from the hydrogel was diffusion with the presence of strong interactions between the positively charged CXCL12 and the negatively charge alginate. CXCL12 release profiles were independent from the initial mass loadings. Afterwards, we demonstrated that the release could tuned by loading CXCL12 into Alginate/Chitosan-Nanoparticles (Alg/Chit-NPs) and embedded them into alginate-hydrogel. The initial burst release was substantially attenuated and the overall cumulative release percentages of 21%, 16% and 7% were observed for initial mass loadings of 0.07, 0.13 and 0.26 µg, respectively, suggesting stronger electrostatic interactions. Results were mathematically modeled based on Fick’s second law of diffusion framework developed previously to estimate the effective diffusion coefficient (Deff) and the mass transfer coefficient. Embedding the CXCL12 into NPs decreased the Deff an order of magnitude, which was coherent with experimental data. Thereafter, we developed an in-vitro 3D model that takes into consideration the convective contribution of the brain IFF to study CXCL12 release in an in-vitro microenvironment that mimics as faithfully as possible the human brain. From is unique design, the model also allowed us to understand the effect of IP on CXCL12 release in respect to time and space. Four flow rates (0.5, 3, 6.5 and 10 µL/min) which may increase CXCL12 release in-vivo depending on the tumor location were assessed. Under IP, cumulative percentages varying between 4.5-7.3%, 23-58.5%, 77.8-92.5% and 89.2-95.9% were released for the three initial mass loadings of 0.08, 0.16 and 0.33 µg, respectively. As the flow rate increase, IP culture conditions resulted in a higher release of CXCL12 compared to static conditions as the convection contribution became the main driving mass transport phenomena. Further, depending on the flow rate, IP had a direct impact on CXCL12 distribution within the simulated brain tissue, which illustrates the importance of developing such 3D in-vitro models to assess the efficiency of a delivery system targeting the brain. In future work, using this very model, we aim to understand the impact of the different phenomenon occurring on GBM cell behaviors in response to the resulting chemokine gradient subjected to various flow while allowing them to express their invasive characteristics in an in-vitro microenvironment that mimics the in-vivo brain parenchyma.

Keywords: 3D culture system, chemokines gradient, glioblastoma multiforme, kinetic release, mathematical modeling

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304 Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines

Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama

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The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.

Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines

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303 Determination of Energy and Nutrients Composition of Potential Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food Formulated from Locally Available Resources

Authors: Amina Sa'id Muhammad, Asmau Ishaq Alhassan, Beba Raymond, Fatima Bello

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Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains a major killer of children under five years of age. Nigeria has the second highest burden of stunted children in the world, with a national prevalence rate of 32 percent of children under five. An estimated 2 million children in Nigeria suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM), and 3.9% of children in northwest Nigeria suffer from SAM, which is significantly higher than the national average of 2.1%. Community-Based Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) has proven to be an effective intervention in the treatment of SAM in children using Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) is a key component for the treatment of Severe Acute Malnutrition. It contains all the energy and nutrients required for rapid catch-up growth and used particularly in the treatment of children over 6 months of age with SAM without medical complications. However, almost all RUTFs are currently imported to Nigeria from other countries. Shortages of RUTF due to logistics (shipping costs, delays, donor fatigue etc) and funding issues present a threat to the achievement of the 2030 World Health Assembly (WHA) targets for reducing malnutrition in addition to 2030 SDGs 2 (Zero Hunger), 3 (Good Health and Wellbeing), 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), and 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), thus undermining its effectiveness in combating malnutrition On the other hand, the availability of human and material resources that will aid local production of RUTF presents an opportunity to fill in the gap in regular RUTF supply. About one thousand Nigerian children die of malnutrition-related causes every day, reaching a total of 361,000 each year. Owing to the high burden of malnutrition in Nigeria, the local production of RUTF is a logical step, that will ensure increased availability, acceptability, access, and efficiency in supply, and at lower costs. Objective(s): The objectives of this study were therefore, to formulate RUTF from locally available resources and to determine its energy and nutrients composition, incommensurate with the standard/commercial RUTF. Methods: Three samples of RUTF were formulated using locally available resources (soya beans, wheat, rice, baobab, brown-sugar, date palm and soya oil); which were subjected to various analysis to determine their energy/proximate composition, vitamin and mineral contents and organoleptic properties were also determined using sensory evaluation. Results: The energy values of the three samples of locally produced RUTF were found to be in conformity with WHO recommendation of ≥ 500 kcal per 100g. The energy values of the three RUTF samples produced in the current study were found to be 563.08, 503.67 and 528.98 kcal respectively. Sample A, B and C had protein content of 13.56% 16.71% and 14.62% respectively, which were higher than that of commercial RUTF (10.9%). Conclusions/recommendations: The locally formulated RUTF samples had energy value of more than 500 kcal per 100g; with an appreciable amount of macro and micro nutrients. The appearance, taste, flavor and general acceptability of the formulated RUTF samples were also commendable.

Keywords: energy, malnutrition, nutrients, RUTF

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302 Autologous Blood for Conjunctival Autograft Fixation in Primary Pterygium Surgery: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Authors: Mohamed Abdelmongy

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Autologous Blood for Conjunctival Autograft Fixation in Primary Pterygium Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Hossam Zein1,2, Ammar Ismail1,3, Mohamed Abdelmongy1,4, Sherif Elsherif1,5,6, Ahmad Hassanen1,4, Basma Muhammad2, Fathy Assaf1,3, Ahmed Elsehili1,7, Ahmed Negida1,7, Shin Yamane9, Mohamed M. Abdel-Daim8,9 and Kazuaki Kadonosono9 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30277146 BACKGROUND: Pterygium is a benign ocular lesion characterized by triangular fibrovascular growth of conjunctival tissue over the cornea. Patients complain of the bad cosmetic appearance, ocular surface irritation and decreased visual acuity if the pterygium is large enough to cause astigmatism or encroach on the pupil. The definitive treatment of pterygium is surgical removal. However, outcomes are compromised by recurrence . The aim of the current study is to systematically review the current literature to explore the efficacy and safety of fibrin glue, suture and autologous blood coagulum for conjunctivalautograft fixation in primary pterygium surgery. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of fibrin glue compared to sutures and autologous blood coagulum in conjunctival autografting for the surgical treatment of pterygium. METHODS: During preparing this manuscript, we followed the steps adequately illustrated in the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions version 5.3, and reported it according to the preferred reporting of systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) statement guidelines. We searched PubMed, Ovid (both through Medline), ISI Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (Central) through January 2017, using the following keywords “Pterygium AND (blood OR glue OR suture)” SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that met the following criteria: 1) comparing autologous blood vs fibrin glue for conjunctivalautograft fixation in primary pterygium surgery 2) comparing autologous blood vs sutures for conjunctivalautograft fixation in primary pterygium surgery DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened the search results, assessed trial quality, and extracted data using standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. The extracted data included A) study design, sample size, and main findings, B) Baseline characteristics of patients included in this review including their age, sex, pterygium site and grade, and graft size. C) Study outcomes comprising 1) primary outcomes: recurrence rate 2) secondary outcomes: graft stability outcomes (graft retraction, graft displacement), operation time (min) and postoperative symptoms (pain, discomfort, foreign body sensation, tearing) MAIN RESULTS: We included 7 RCTs and The review included662eyes (Blood: 293; Glue: 198; Suture: 171). we assess the 1) primary outcomes: recurrence rate 2) secondary outcomes: graft stability outcomes (graft retraction, graft displacement), operation time (min) and postoperative symptoms (pain, discomfort, foreign body sensation, tearing) CONCLUSIONS: Autologous blood for conjunctivalautograft fixation in pterygium surgery is associated with lower graft stability than fibrin glue or sutures. It was not inferior to fibrin glue or sutures regarding recurrence rate. The overall quality of evidence is low. Further well designed RCTs are needed to fully explore the efficacy of this new technique.

Keywords: pterygium, autograft, ophthalmology, cornea

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301 We Have Never Seen a Dermatologist. Reaching the Unreachable Through Teledermatology

Authors: Innocent Atuhe, Babra Nalwadda, Grace Mulyowa Kitunzi, Annabella Haninka Ejiri

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Background: Atopic Dermatitis (AD) is one of the most prevalent and growing chronic inflammatory skin diseases in African prisons. AD care is limited in African due to lack of information about the disease amongst primary care workers, limited access to dermatologists, lack of proper training of healthcare workers, and shortage of appropriate treatments. We designed and implemented the Prisons Telederma project based on the recommendations of the International Society of Atopic Dermatitis. Our overall goal was to increase access to dermatologist-led care for prisoners with AD through teledermatology in Uganda. We aimed to; i) to increase awareness and understanding of teledermatology among prison health workers; and ii) to improve treatment outcomes of prisoners with atopic dermatitis through increased access to and utilization of consultant dermatologists through teledermatology in Uganda prisons: Approach: We used Store-and-forward Teledermatology (SAF-TD) to increase access to dermatologist-led care for prisoners and prisons staff with AD. We conducted a five days training for prison health workers using an adapted WHO training guide on recognizing neglected tropical diseases through changes on the skin together with an adapted American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) Childhood AD Basic Dermatology Curriculum designed to help trainees develop a clinical approach to the evaluation and initial management of patients with AD. This training was followed by blended e-learning, webinars facilitated by consultant Dermatologists with local knowledge of medication and local practices, apps adjusted for pigmented skin, WhatsApp group discussions, and sharing pigmented skin AD pictures and treatment via zoom meetings. We hired a team of Ugandan Senior Consultant dermatologists to draft an iconographic atlas of the main dermatoses in pigmented African skin and shared this atlas with prison health staff for use as a job aid. We had planned to use MySkinSelfie mobile phone application to take and share skin pictures of prisoners with AD with Consultant Dermatologists, who would review the pictures and prescribe appropriate treatment. Unfortunately, the National Health Service withdrew the app from the market due to technical issues. We monitored and evaluated treatment outcomes using the Patient Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) tool. We held four advocacy meetings to persuade relevant stakeholders to increase supplies and availability of first-line AD treatments such as emollients in prison health facilities. Results: Draft iconographic atlas of the main dermatoses in pigmented African skin Increased proportion of prison health staff with adequate knowledge of AD and teledermatology from 20% to 80% Increased proportion of prisoners with AD reporting improvement in disease severity (POEM scores) from 25% to 35% in one year. Increased proportion of prisoners with AD seen by consultant dermatologist through teledermatology from 0% to 20% in one year. Increased the availability of AD recommended treatments in prisons health facilities from 5% to 10% in one year

Keywords: teledermatology, prisoners, reaching, un-reachable

Procedia PDF Downloads 98
300 The Future Control Rooms for Sustainable Power Systems: Current Landscape and Operational Challenges

Authors: Signe Svensson, Remy Rey, Anna-Lisa Osvalder, Henrik Artman, Lars Nordström

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The electric power system is undergoing significant changes. Thereby, the operation and control are becoming partly modified, more multifaceted and automated, and thereby supplementary operator skills might be required. This paper discusses developing operational challenges in future power system control rooms, posed by the evolving landscape of sustainable power systems, driven in turn by the shift towards electrification and renewable energy sources. A literature review followed by interviews and a comparison to other related domains with similar characteristics, a descriptive analysis was performed from a human factors perspective. Analysis is meant to identify trends, relationships, and challenges. A power control domain taxonomy includes a temporal domain (planning and real-time operation) and three operational domains within the power system (generation, switching and balancing). Within each operational domain, there are different control actions, either in the planning stage or in the real-time operation, that affect the overall operation of the power system. In addition to the temporal dimension, the control domains are divided in space between a multitude of different actors distributed across many different locations. A control room is a central location where different types of information are monitored and controlled, alarms are responded to, and deviations are handled by the control room operators. The operators’ competencies, teamwork skills, team shift patterns as well as control system designs are all important factors in ensuring efficient and safe electricity grid management. As the power system evolves with sustainable energy technologies, challenges are found. Questions are raised regarding whether the operators’ tacit knowledge, experience and operation skills of today are sufficient to make constructive decisions to solve modified and new control tasks, especially during disturbed operations or abnormalities. Which new skills need to be developed in planning and real-time operation to provide efficient generation and delivery of energy through the system? How should the user interfaces be developed to assist operators in processing the increasing amount of information? Are some skills at risk of being lost when the systems change? How should the physical environment and collaborations between different stakeholders within and outside the control room develop to support operator control? To conclude, the system change will provide many benefits related to electrification and renewable energy sources, but it is important to address the operators’ challenges with increasing complexity. The control tasks will be modified, and additional operator skills are needed to perform efficient and safe operations. Also, the whole human-technology-organization system needs to be considered, including the physical environment, the technical aids and the information systems, the operators’ physical and mental well-being, as well as the social and organizational systems.

Keywords: operator, process control, energy system, sustainability, future control room, skill

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299 Augmented Reality Enhanced Order Picking: The Potential for Gamification

Authors: Stavros T. Ponis, George D. Plakas-Koumadorakis, Sotiris P. Gayialis

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Augmented Reality (AR) can be defined as a technology, which takes the capabilities of computer-generated display, sound, text and effects to enhance the user's real-world experience by overlaying virtual objects into the real world. By doing that, AR is capable of providing a vast array of work support tools, which can significantly increase employee productivity, enhance existing job training programs by making them more realistic and in some cases introduce completely new forms of work and task executions. One of the most promising AR industrial applications, as literature shows, is the use of Head Worn, monocular or binocular Displays (HWD) to support logistics and production operations, such as order picking, part assembly and maintenance. This paper presents the initial results of an ongoing research project for the introduction of a dedicated AR-HWD solution to the picking process of a Distribution Center (DC) in Greece operated by a large Telecommunication Service Provider (TSP). In that context, the proposed research aims to determine whether gamification elements should be integrated in the functional requirements of the AR solution, such as providing points for reaching objectives and creating leaderboards and awards (e.g. badges) for general achievements. Up to now, there is a an ambiguity on the impact of gamification in logistics operations since gamification literature mostly focuses on non-industrial organizational contexts such as education and customer/citizen facing applications, such as tourism and health. To the contrary, the gamification efforts described in this study focus in one of the most labor- intensive and workflow dependent logistics processes, i.e. Customer Order Picking (COP). Although introducing AR in COP, undoubtedly, creates significant opportunities for workload reduction and increased process performance the added value of gamification is far from certain. This paper aims to provide insights on the suitability and usefulness of AR-enhanced gamification in the hard and very demanding environment of a logistics center. In doing so, it will utilize a review of the current state-of-the art regarding gamification of production and logistics processes coupled with the results of questionnaire guided interviews with industry experts, i.e. logisticians, warehouse workers (pickers) and AR software developers. The findings of the proposed research aim to contribute towards a better understanding of AR-enhanced gamification, the organizational change it entails and the consequences it potentially has for all implicated entities in the often highly standardized and structured work required in the logistics setting. The interpretation of these findings will support the decision of logisticians regarding the introduction of gamification in their logistics processes by providing them useful insights and guidelines originating from a real life case study of a large DC operating more than 300 retail outlets in Greece.

Keywords: augmented reality, technology acceptance, warehouse management, vision picking, new forms of work, gamification

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298 Kanga Traditional Costume as a Tool for Community Empowerment in Tanzania in Ubuntu perspective - A Literature Review

Authors: Meinrad Haule Lembuka

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Introduction: Ubuntu culture represents African humanism with collective and positive feeling of people living together, interdependence, equally and peaceful etc. Overtime, Ubuntu culture developed varieties of communicative strategies to express experiences, feelings and knowledge. Khanga or kanga (garment) is among the Ubuntu cultural practice of Bantu speaking people along the East African coast following interaction with Arabs and Bantu speaking people to formulate Swahili culture. Kanga or Kanga is a Swahili word which means a traditional soft cotton cloths in varieties of colours, patterns, and styles which as a deep cultural, historical, and social significance not only in Tanzania but the rest of East African coast. Swahili culture is a sub culture of Ubuntu African culture which is rich in customs and rituals that serve to preserve goodness and life where Tanzania, like the rest of East African societies along the Indian coast engaged in kanga dressing custom under Swahili culture to express their feelings and knowledge sharing. After the independence of Tanzania (formerly Tanganyika) from British colonial rule, Kanga traditional dressing gained momentum in Swahili culture and spread to the rest of East Africa and beyond. To date kanga dressing holds a good position as a formal and informal tool for advocating marginalised groups, counselling, psychosocial therapy, liberation, compassion, love, justice, campaign, and cerebration etc. Methodology: A literature review method was guided by Ubuntu theory to assess the implications of kanga traditional dressing in empowering Tanzanian community. Findings: During slavery, slaves wore Kaniki and people despised Kaniki dressing due to its association with slavery. Ex-slave women seeking to become part of the Swahili society began to decorate their Kaniki clothes. After slavery was abolished in 1897, Kangas began to be used for self-empowerment and to indicate that the wearer had personal wealth. During colonial era, freedom of expressions for Africans were restricted by colonial masters thus Tanzanians used kanga to express the evils of colonialism and other social problems, Under Ubuntu value of unity and solidarity liberation and independence fighters crafted motto and liberation messages that were shared and spread rapidly in the community. Political parities like TANU used kanga to spread nationalism and Ujamaa policy. kanga is more than a piece of fabric-it is a space for women to voice unspeakable communication and a women-centred repository for indigenous knowledge, feminisms addressing social ills, happiness, campaigns, memories and reconciliation etc. Kanga provides an indirect voice and support vulnerable and marginalised populations and strongly it has proved to be a peaceful platform of capture attention of government and societies. Kanga textiles gained increased international fame when an Obama kanga design was produced upon the president’s election in 2008 and his visit to Tanzania in 2013. Conclusion: Kanga preserves and symbolises Swahili culture and contributes in realization of social justice, inclusion, national identity and unity. As an inclusive cultural tool, Kanga spread across Africa to international community and the practice has moved from being a woman domination dressing code to other sex orientations.

Keywords: African culture, Kanga, khanga, swahili culture, ubuntu

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297 Strategy of Loading by Number for Commercial Vehicles

Authors: Ramalan Musa Yerima

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The paper titled “Loading by number” explained a strategy developed recently by the Zonal Commanding Officer of the Federal Road Safety Corps of Nigeria, covering Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara States of Northern Nigeria. The strategy is aimed at reducing competition, which will invariably lead to a reduction in speed, reduction in dangerous driving, reduction in crash rate, reduction in injuries, reduction in property damages and reduction in death through road traffic crashes (RTC). This research paper presents a study focused on enhancing the safety of commercial vehicles. The background of this study highlights the alarming statistics related to commercial vehicle crashes in Nigeria with a focus on Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara States, which often result in significant damage to property, loss of lives, and economic costs. The significance and aims is to investigate and propose an effective strategy to enhance the safety of commercial vehicles. The study recognizes the pressing need for heightened safety measures in commercial transportation, as it impacts not only the well-being of drivers and passengers but also the overall public safety. To achieve the objectives, an examination of accident data, including causes and contributing factors, was performed to identify critical areas for improvement. The major finding of the study reveals that when competition comes into play within the realm of commercial driving, it has detrimental effects on road safety and resource management. Commercial drivers are pushed to complete their routes quickly and deliver goods on time, or they push themselves to arrive quickly for more passengers and new contracts. This competitive environment, fuelled by internal and external pressures such as tight deadlines, poverty and greed, often leads to sad endings. The study recommends that if a strategy called loading by number is integrated with other multiple safety measures, such as driver training programs, regulatory enforcement, and infrastructure improvements, commercial vehicle safety can be significantly enhanced. "Loading by Number” approach is designed to ensure that the sequence of departure of drivers from the motor park ‘A’ would be communicated to motor park officials of park ‘B’, which would be considered sequentially when giving them returning passengers, regardless of the first to arrive. In conclusion, this paper underscores the significance of improving the safety measures of commercial vehicles, as they are often larger and heavier than other vehicles on the road. Whenever they are involved in accidents, the consequences can be more severe. Commercial vehicles are also frequently involved in long-haul or interstate transportation, which means they cover longer distances and spend more time on the road. This increased exposure to driving conditions increases the probability of accidents occurring. By implementing the suggested measures, policymakers, transportation authorities, and industry stakeholders can work collectively toward ensuring a safer commercial transportation system.

Keywords: commercial, safety, strategy, transport

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296 The Effect of a Multidisciplinary Spine Clinic on Treatment Rates and Lead Times to Care

Authors: Ishan Naidu, Jessica Ryvlin, Devin Videlefsky

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Introduction: Back pain is a leading cause of years lived with disability and economic burden, exceeding over $20 billion in healthcare costs not including indirect costs such as absence from work and caregiving. The multifactorial nature of back pain leads to treatment modalities administered by a variety of specialists, which are often disjointed. Multiple studies have found that patients receiving delayed physical therapy for lower back pain had higher medical-related costs from increased health service utilization as well as a reduced improvement in pain severity compared to early management. Uncoordinated health care delivery can exacerbate the physical and economic toll of the chronic condition, thus improvements in interdisciplinary, shared decision-making may improve outcomes. Objective: To assess whether a multidisciplinary spine clinic (MSC), consisting of orthopedic surgery, neurosurgery, pain medicine, and physiatry, alters interventional and non-interventional planning and treatment compared to a traditional unidisciplinary spine clinic (USC) including only orthopedic surgery. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with patients initially presenting for spine care to orthopedic surgeons between July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019. Time to treatment recommendation, time to treatment and rates of treatment recommendations were assessed, including physical therapy, injections and surgery. Treatment rates were compared between MSC and USC using Pearson’s chi-square test logistic regression. Time to treatment recommendation and time to treatment were compared using log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard regression. All analyses were repeated for the propensity score (PS) matched subsample. Results: This study included 1,764 patients, with 692 at MSC and 1,072 at USC. Patients in MSC were more likely to be recommended injection when compared to USC (8.5% vs. 5.4%, p=0.01). When adjusted for confounders, the likelihood of injection recommendation remained greater in MSC than USC (Odds ratio [OR]=2.22, 95% CI: (1.39, 3.53), p=0.001). MSC was also associated with a shorter time to receiving injection recommendation versus USC (median: 21 vs. 32 days, log-rank: p<0.001; hazard ratio [HR]=1.90, 95% CI: (1.25, 2.90), p=0.003). MSC was associated with a higher likelihood of injection treatment (OR=2.27, 95% CI: (1.39, 3.73), p=0.001) and shorter lead time (HR=1.98, 95% CI: (1.27, 3.09), p=0.003). PS-matched analyses yielded similar conclusions. Conclusions: Care delivered at a multidisciplinary spine clinic was associated with a higher likelihood of recommending injection and a shorter lead time to injection administration when compared to a traditional unidisciplinary spine surgery clinic. Multidisciplinary clinics may facilitate coordinated care amongst different specialties resulting in increased utilization of less invasive treatment modalities while also improving care efficiency. The multidisciplinary clinic model is an important advancement in care delivery and communication, which can be used as a powerful method of improving patient outcomes as treatment guidelines evolve.

Keywords: coordinated care, epidural steroid injection, multi-disciplinary, non-invasive

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295 Supplementing Aerial-Roving Surveys with Autonomous Optical Cameras: A High Temporal Resolution Approach to Monitoring and Estimating Effort within a Recreational Salmon Fishery in British Columbia, Canada

Authors: Ben Morrow, Patrick O'Hara, Natalie Ban, Tunai Marques, Molly Fraser, Christopher Bone

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Relative to commercial fisheries, recreational fisheries are often poorly understood and pose various challenges for monitoring frameworks. In British Columbia (BC), Canada, Pacific salmon are heavily targeted by recreational fishers while also being a key source of nutrient flow and crucial prey for a variety of marine and terrestrial fauna, including endangered Southern Resident killer whales (Orcinus orca). Although commercial fisheries were historically responsible for the majority of salmon retention, recreational fishing now comprises both greater effort and retention. The current monitoring scheme for recreational salmon fisheries involves aerial-roving creel surveys. However, this method has been identified as costly and having low predictive power as it is often limited to sampling fragments of fluid and temporally dynamic fisheries. This study used imagery from two shore-based autonomous cameras in a highly active recreational fishery around Sooke, BC, and evaluated their efficacy in supplementing existing aerial-roving surveys for monitoring a recreational salmon fishery. This study involved continuous monitoring and high temporal resolution (over one million images analyzed in a single fishing season), using a deep learning-based vessel detection algorithm and a custom image annotation tool to efficiently thin datasets. This allowed for the quantification of peak-season effort from a busy harbour, species-specific retention estimates, high levels of detected fishing events at a nearby popular fishing location, as well as the proportion of the fishery management area represented by cameras. Then, this study demonstrated how it could substantially enhance the temporal resolution of a fishery through diel activity pattern analyses, scaled monthly to visualize clusters of activity. This work also highlighted considerable off-season fishing detection, currently unaccounted for in the existing monitoring framework. These results demonstrate several distinct applications of autonomous cameras for providing enhanced detail currently unavailable in the current monitoring framework, each of which has important considerations for the managerial allocation of resources. Further, the approach and methodology can benefit other studies that apply shore-based camera monitoring, supplement aerial-roving creel surveys to improve fine-scale temporal understanding, inform the optimal timing of creel surveys, and improve the predictive power of recreational stock assessments to preserve important and endangered fish species.

Keywords: cameras, monitoring, recreational fishing, stock assessment

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294 Polar Bears in Antarctica: An Analysis of Treaty Barriers

Authors: Madison Hall

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The Assisted Colonization of Polar Bears to Antarctica requires a careful analysis of treaties to understand existing legal barriers to Ursus maritimus transport and movement. An absence of land-based migration routes prevent polar bears from accessing southern polar regions on their own. This lack of access is compounded by current treaties which limit human intervention and assistance to ford these physical and legal barriers. In a time of massive planetary extinctions, Assisted Colonization posits that certain endangered species may be prime candidates for relocation to hospitable environments to which they have never previously had access. By analyzing existing treaties, this paper will examine how polar bears are limited in movement by humankind’s legal barriers. International treaties may be considered codified reflections of anthropocentric values of the best knowledge and understanding of an identified problem at a set point in time, as understood through the human lens. Even as human social values and scientific insights evolve, so too must treaties evolve which specify legal frameworks and structures impacting keystone species and related biomes. Due to costs and other myriad difficulties, only a very select number of species will be given this opportunity. While some species move into new regions and are then deemed invasive, Assisted Colonization considers that some assistance may be mandated due to the nature of humankind’s role in climate change. This moral question and ethical imperative against the backdrop of escalating climate impacts, drives the question forward; what is the potential for successfully relocating a select handful of charismatic and ecologically important life forms? Is it possible to reimagine a different, but balanced Antarctic ecosystem? Listed as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, a result of the ongoing loss of critical habitat by melting sea ice, polar bears have limited options for long term survival in the wild. Our current regime for safeguarding animals facing extinction frequently utilizes zoos and their breeding programs, to keep alive the genetic diversity of the species until some future time when reintroduction, somewhere, may be attempted. By exploring the potential for polar bears to be relocated to Antarctica, we must analyze the complex ethical, legal, political, financial, and biological realms, which are the backdrop to framing all questions in this arena. Can we do it? Should we do it? By utilizing an environmental ethics perspective, we propose that the Ecological Commons of the Arctic and Antarctic should not be viewed solely through the lens of human resource management needs. From this perspective, polar bears do not need our permission, they need our assistance. Antarctica therefore represents a second, if imperfect chance, to buy time for polar bears, in a world where polar regimes, not yet fully understood, are themselves quickly changing as a result of climate change.

Keywords: polar bear, climate change, environmental ethics, Arctic, Antarctica, assisted colonization, treaty

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293 Evaluation of Feasibility of Ecological Sanitation in Central Nepal

Authors: K. C. Sharda

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Introduction: In the world, almost half of the population are lacking proper access to improved sanitation services. In Nepal, large number of people are living without access to any sanitation facility. Ecological sanitation toilet which is defined as water conserving and nutrient recycling system for use of human urine and excreta in agriculture would count a lot to utilize locally available resources, to regenerate soil fertility, to save national currency and to achieve the goal of elimination open defecation in country like Nepal. The objectives of the research were to test the efficacy of human urine for improving crop performance and to evaluate the feasibility of ecological sanitation in rural area of Central Nepal. Materials and Methods: The field investigation was carried out at Palung Village Development Committee (VDC) of Makawanpur District, Nepal from March – August, 2016. Five eco-san toilets in two villages (Angare and Bhot Khoriya) were constructed and questionnaire survey was carried out. During the questionnaire survey, respondents were asked about socio-economic parameters, farming practices, awareness of ecological sanitation and fertilizer value of human urine and excreta in agriculture. In prior to a field experiment, soil was sampled for analysis of basic characteristics. In the field experiment, cauliflower was cultivated for a month in the two sites to compare the fertilizer value of urine with chemical fertilizer and no fertilizer with three replications. The harvested plant samples were analyzed to understand the nutrient content in plant with different treatments. Results and Discussion: Eighty three percent respondents were engaged in agriculture growing mainly vegetables, which may raise the feasibility of ecological sanitation. In the study area, water deficiencies in dry season, high demand of chemical fertilizer, lack of sanitation awareness were found to be solved. The soil at Angare has sandier texture and lower nitrogen content compared to that in Bhot Khoriya. While the field experiment in Angare showed that the aboveground biomass of cauliflower in the urine fertilized plot were similar with that in the chemically fertilized plot and higher than those in the non-fertilized plots, no significant difference among the treatments were found in Bhot Khoriya. The more distinctive response of crop growth to the three treatments in the former might be attributed to the poorer soil productivity, which in turn could be caused by the poorer inherent soil fertility and the poorer past management by the farmer in Angare. Thus, use of urine as fertilizer could help poor farmers with low quality soil. The significantly different content of nitrogen and potassium in the plant samples among three treatments in Bhot Khoriya would require further investigation. When urine is utilized as a fertilizer, the productivity could be increased and the money to buy chemical fertilizer would be utilized in other livelihood activities. Ecological sanitation is feasible in the area with similar socio-economic parameter.

Keywords: cauliflower, chemical fertilizer, ecological sanitation, Nepal, urine

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292 Exploring the Impact of Mobility-Related Treatments (Drug and Non-Pharmacological) on Independence and Wellbeing in Parkinson’s Disease - A Qualitative Synthesis

Authors: Cameron Wilson, Megan Hanrahan, Katie Brittain, Riona McArdle, Alison Keogh, Lynn Rochester

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Background: The loss of mobility and functional dependence is a significant marker in the progression of neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson’s Disease (PD). Pharmacological, surgical, and therapeutic treatments are available that can help in the management and amelioration of PD symptoms; however, these only prolong more severe symptoms. Accordingly, ensuring people with PD can maintain independence and a healthy wellbeing are essential in establishing an effective treatment option for those afflicted. Existing literature reviews have examined experiences in engaging with PD treatment options and the impact of PD on independence and wellbeing. Although, the literature fails to explore the influence of treatment options on independence and wellbeing and therefore misses what people value in their treatment. This review is the first that synthesises the impact of mobility-related treatments on independence and wellbeing in people with PD and their carers, offering recommendations to clinical practice and provides a conceptual framework (in development) for future research and practice. Objectives: To explore the impact of mobility-related treatment (both pharmacological and non-pharmacological) on the independence and wellbeing of people with PD and their carers. To propose a conceptual framework to patients, carers and clinicians which captures the qualities people with PD value as part of their treatment. Methods: We performed a critical interpretive synthesis of qualitative evidence, searching six databases for reports that explored the impact of mobility-related treatments (both drug and non-pharmacological) on independence and wellbeing in Parkinson’s Disease. The types of treatments included medication (Levodopa and Amantadine), dance classes, Deep-Brain Stimulation, aquatic therapies, physical rehabilitation, balance training and foetal transplantation. Data was extracted, and quality was assessed using an adapted version of the NICE Quality Appraisal Tool Appendix H before being synthesised according to the critical interpretive synthesis framework and meta-ethnography process. Results: From 2301 records, 28 were eligible. Experiences and impact of treatment pathway on independence and wellbeing was similar across all types of treatments and are described by five inter-related themes: (i) desire to maintain independence, (ii) treatment as a social experience during and after, (iii) medication to strengthen emotional health, (iv) recognising physical capacity and (v) emphasising the personal journey of Parkinson’s treatments. Conclusion: There is a complex and inter-related experience and effect of PD treatments common across all types of treatment. The proposed conceptual framework (in development) provides patients, carers, and clinicians recommendations to personalise the delivery of PD treatment, thereby potentially improving adherence and effectiveness. This work is vital to disseminate as PD treatment transitions from subjective and clinically captured assessments to a more personalised process supplemented using wearable technology.

Keywords: parkinson's disease, medication, treatment, dance, review, healthcare, delivery, levodopa, social, emotional, psychological, personalised healthcare

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291 Measurement System for Human Arm Muscle Magnetic Field and Grip Strength

Authors: Shuai Yuan, Minxia Shi, Xu Zhang, Jianzhi Yang, Kangqi Tian, Yuzheng Ma

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The precise measurement of muscle activities is essential for understanding the function of various body movements. This work aims to develop a muscle magnetic field signal detection system based on mathematical analysis. Medical research has underscored that early detection of muscle atrophy, coupled with lifestyle adjustments such as dietary control and increased exercise, can significantly enhance muscle-related diseases. Currently, surface electromyography (sEMG) is widely employed in research as an early predictor of muscle atrophy. Nonetheless, the primary limitation of using sEMG to forecast muscle strength is its inability to directly measure the signals generated by muscles. Challenges arise from potential skin-electrode contact issues due to perspiration, leading to inaccurate signals or even signal loss. Additionally, resistance and phase are significantly impacted by adipose layers. The recent emergence of optically pumped magnetometers introduces a fresh avenue for bio-magnetic field measurement techniques. These magnetometers possess high sensitivity and obviate the need for a cryogenic environment unlike superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDs). They detect muscle magnetic field signals in the range of tens to thousands of femtoteslas (fT). The utilization of magnetometers for capturing muscle magnetic field signals remains unaffected by issues of perspiration and adipose layers. Since their introduction, optically pumped atomic magnetometers have found extensive application in exploring the magnetic fields of organs such as cardiac and brain magnetism. The optimal operation of these magnetometers necessitates an environment with an ultra-weak magnetic field. To achieve such an environment, researchers usually utilize a combination of active magnetic compensation technology with passive magnetic shielding technology. Passive magnetic shielding technology uses a magnetic shielding device built with high permeability materials to attenuate the external magnetic field to a few nT. Compared with more layers, the coils that can generate a reverse magnetic field to precisely compensate for the residual magnetic fields are cheaper and more flexible. To attain even lower magnetic fields, compensation coils designed by Biot-Savart law are involved to generate a counteractive magnetic field to eliminate residual magnetic fields. By solving the magnetic field expression of discrete points in the target region, the parameters that determine the current density distribution on the plane can be obtained through the conventional target field method. The current density is obtained from the partial derivative of the stream function, which can be represented by the combination of trigonometric functions. Optimization algorithms in mathematics are introduced into coil design to obtain the optimal current density distribution. A one-dimensional linear regression analysis was performed on the collected data, obtaining a coefficient of determination R2 of 0.9349 with a p-value of 0. This statistical result indicates a stable relationship between the peak-to-peak value (PPV) of the muscle magnetic field signal and the magnitude of grip strength. This system is expected to be a widely used tool for healthcare professionals to gain deeper insights into the muscle health of their patients.

Keywords: muscle magnetic signal, magnetic shielding, compensation coils, trigonometric functions.

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290 Home Garden: A Food-Based Strategy to Achieve Sustainable Impact on Household Nutrition of Resource-Poor Families in Nepal

Authors: Purushottam P. Khatiwada, Bikash Paudel, Ram B. Rana, Parshuram Biswakarma, Roshan Pudasaini

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Nepal has been putting its efforts into securing food and nutrition security for its citizens adopting different models and approaches. Home Garden approach, that integrates vegetables, fruits, small livestock, poultry along with other components like fish, honeybee, mushroom, spices for the promotion of nutritional security of resource-poor and disadvantaged groups was implemented during March 2009 to July 2013 spreading over 16 districts of Nepal covering 115 farmers groups, directly working with 3500 households. Sustained long-term impact of development interventions targeted to the resource-poor and disadvantaged groups has been a recurrent issue for donors, policymakers and practitioners alike. Considering the issue, a post-project evaluation was carried out in a selected project group (Dangibari of Jhapa) after four years of project completion in 2017 in order to evaluate the impact and understand the factors associated with its success. Qualitative information was collected through focus group discussion with group members and associated local institutions. For quantitative information, a quick survey was carried out to the same group members only selecting few indicators. The results are compared with the data obtained from the baseline study conducted by the project in March 2009. The impact of project intervention was evident as compared to the benchmarks established during the baseline, even after four years of project completion. The area under home garden is increased to 729 m² from 386 m² and average food self-sufficiency months increased to 10.22 from 8.11. Seven to eleven fruit species are maintained in the home gardens. An average number of vegetable species grown increased to 15.85 from 9.86. It has resulted in an increase in vegetables self-sufficient month to 8.74 from 4.74 and a huge increase in cash income NPR 6142.8 (USD 59.6) from NPR 385.7 (USD 3.9) from the sale of surplus vegetables. Coaching and mentoring including nutrition sensitization by the project staff at the beginning, inputs and technical support during the project implementation phase and projects effort on the institutional building of disadvantaged farmers were the key drivers of home garden sustainability and expansion. Specifically, package of home garden management trainings provided by the project staff, availability of group funds for buying inputs even after the project, uniting home garden group members in a cooperative, resource leveraging by local institutions through group lobbying, farmers innovations for maintaining home garden diversity and continuous backstopping support by few active members as local resource persons to other members are some additional factors contributing to sustain and/or improve the home garden status by the resource-poor and disadvantaged group.

Keywords: food-based nutrition, home garden, resource-poor and disadvantaged group, sustained impact

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289 Investigating the Impact of Individual Risk-Willingness and Group-Interaction Effects on Business Model Innovation Decisions

Authors: Sarah Müller-Sägebrecht

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Today’s volatile environment challenges executives to make the right strategic decisions to gain sustainable success. Entrepreneurship scholars postulate mainly positive effects of environmental changes on entrepreneurship behavior, such as developing new business opportunities, promoting ingenuity, and the satisfaction of resource voids. A strategic solution approach to overcome threatening environmental changes and catch new business opportunities is business model innovation (BMI). Although this research stream has gained further importance in the last decade, BMI research is still insufficient. Especially BMI barriers, such as inefficient strategic decision-making processes, need to be identified. Strategic decisions strongly impact organizational future and are, therefore, usually made in groups. Although groups draw on a more extensive information base than single individuals, group-interaction effects can influence the decision-making process - in a favorable but also unfavorable way. Decisions are characterized by uncertainty and risk, whereby their intensity is perceived individually differently. Individual risk-willingness influences which option humans choose. The special nature of strategic decisions, such as in BMI processes, is that these decisions are not made individually but in groups due to their high organizational scope. These groups consist of different personalities whose individual risk-willingness can vary considerably. It is known from group decision theory that these individuals influence each other, observable in different group-interaction effects. The following research questions arise: i) Which impact has the individual risk-willingness on BMI decisions? And ii) how do group interaction effects impact BMI decisions? After conducting 26 in-depth interviews with executives from the manufacturing industry, the applied Gioia methodology reveals the following results: i) Risk-averse decision-makers have an increased need to be guided by facts. The more information available to them, the lower they perceive uncertainty and the more willing they are to pursue a specific decision option. However, the results also show that social interaction does not change the individual risk-willingness in the decision-making process. ii) Generally, it could be observed that during BMI decisions, group interaction is primarily beneficial to increase the group’s information base for making good decisions, less than for social interaction. Further, decision-makers mainly focus on information available to all decision-makers in the team but less on personal knowledge. This work contributes to strategic decision-making literature twofold. First, it gives insights into how group-interaction effects influence an organization’s strategic BMI decision-making. Second, it enriches risk-management research by highlighting how individual risk-willingness impacts organizational strategic decision-making. To date, it was known in BMI research that risk aversion would be an internal BMI barrier. However, with this study, it becomes clear that it is not risk aversion that inhibits BMI. Instead, the lack of information prevents risk-averse decision-makers from choosing a riskier option. Simultaneously, results show that risk-averse decision-makers are not easily carried away by the higher risk-willingness of their team members. Instead, they use social interaction to gather missing information. Therefore, executives need to provide sufficient information to all decision-makers to catch promising business opportunities.

Keywords: business model innovation, decision-making, group biases, group decisions, group-interaction effects, risk-willingness

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288 A Foucauldian Analysis of Child Play: Case Study of a Preschool in the United States

Authors: Meng Wang

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Historically, young members (children) in the society have been oppressed by adults through direct violent acts. Direct violence was evident in rampant child labor and child maltreatment cases. After acknowledging the rights of children from the United Nations, it is believed in public that children have been protected against direct physical violence. Nevertheless, at present, this paper argues from Foucauldian and disability study standpoints that similar to the old times, children are oppressed objects in the context of child play, which is constructed by adults to substitute direct violence in regulating children. Particularly, this paper suggests that on the one hand, preschool play is a new way that adults adopt to oppress preschoolers and regulate the society as a whole; on the other hand, preschoolers are taught how to play as an acquired skill and master self-regulation through play. There is a line of contemporary research that centers on child play from social constructivism perspective. Yet, current teaching practices pertaining to child play including guided child play and free play, in fact, serve the interest of adults and society at large. By acknowledging and deconstructing the prevalence of 'evidence-based best practice' in early childhood education field within western society, reconstruction of child-adult power relation could be achieved and alternative truth could be found in early childhood education. To support the argument of this paper, an on-going observational case study is conducted in a preschool setting in the United States. Age range of children is 2.5 to 4 years old. Approximately 10 children (5 boys) are participating in this case study. Observation is conducted throughout the weekdays as children follow through the classroom routine with a lead and an assistant teacher. Classroom teachers are interviewed pertaining to their classroom management strategies. Preliminary research finding of this case study suggested that preschool teachers tended to utilize scenarios from preschoolers’ dramatic play to impart core cultural values to young children. These values were pre-determined by adults. In addition, if young children have failed to follow teachers' guidance in terms of playing in a correct way, children ran the risk of being excluded from the play scenario by peers and adults. Furthermore, this study tended to indicate that through child play, preschoolers are obliged to develop an internal violence system, that is self-regulation skill to regulate their own behavior; and if this internal system is unestablished based on various assessments by adults, then potentially there will be consequences of negative labeling and disabling toward young children intended by adults. In conclusion, this paper applies Foucauldian analysis into the context of child play. At present, within preschool, child play is not free as it seems to be. Young children are expected to perform cultural tasks through their play activities designed by adults. Adults utilize child play as technologies of governmentality to further predict and regulate future society at large.

Keywords: child play, developmentally appropriate practice, DAP, poststructuralism, technologies of governmentality

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287 Pharmacophore-Based Modeling of a Series of Human Glutaminyl Cyclase Inhibitors to Identify Lead Molecules by Virtual Screening, Molecular Docking and Molecular Dynamics Simulation Study

Authors: Ankur Chaudhuri, Sibani Sen Chakraborty

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In human, glutaminyl cyclase activity is highly abundant in neuronal and secretory tissues and is preferentially restricted to hypothalamus and pituitary. The N-terminal modification of β-amyloids (Aβs) peptides by the generation of a pyro-glutamyl (pGlu) modified Aβs (pE-Aβs) is an important process in the initiation of the formation of neurotoxic plaques in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). This process is catalyzed by glutaminyl cyclase (QC). The expression of QC is characteristically up-regulated in the early stage of AD, and the hallmark of the inhibition of QC is the prevention of the formation of pE-Aβs and plaques. A computer-aided drug design (CADD) process was employed to give an idea for the designing of potentially active compounds to understand the inhibitory potency against human glutaminyl cyclase (QC). This work elaborates the ligand-based and structure-based pharmacophore exploration of glutaminyl cyclase (QC) by using the known inhibitors. Three dimensional (3D) quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) methods were applied to 154 compounds with known IC50 values. All the inhibitors were divided into two sets, training-set, and test-sets. Generally, training-set was used to build the quantitative pharmacophore model based on the principle of structural diversity, whereas the test-set was employed to evaluate the predictive ability of the pharmacophore hypotheses. A chemical feature-based pharmacophore model was generated from the known 92 training-set compounds by HypoGen module implemented in Discovery Studio 2017 R2 software package. The best hypothesis was selected (Hypo1) based upon the highest correlation coefficient (0.8906), lowest total cost (463.72), and the lowest root mean square deviation (2.24Å) values. The highest correlation coefficient value indicates greater predictive activity of the hypothesis, whereas the lower root mean square deviation signifies a small deviation of experimental activity from the predicted one. The best pharmacophore model (Hypo1) of the candidate inhibitors predicted comprised four features: two hydrogen bond acceptor, one hydrogen bond donor, and one hydrophobic feature. The Hypo1 was validated by several parameters such as test set activity prediction, cost analysis, Fischer's randomization test, leave-one-out method, and heat map of ligand profiler. The predicted features were then used for virtual screening of potential compounds from NCI, ASINEX, Maybridge and Chembridge databases. More than seven million compounds were used for this purpose. The hit compounds were filtered by drug-likeness and pharmacokinetics properties. The selective hits were docked to the high-resolution three-dimensional structure of the target protein glutaminyl cyclase (PDB ID: 2AFU/2AFW) to filter these hits further. To validate the molecular docking results, the most active compound from the dataset was selected as a reference molecule. From the density functional theory (DFT) study, ten molecules were selected based on their highest HOMO (highest occupied molecular orbitals) energy and the lowest bandgap values. Molecular dynamics simulations with explicit solvation systems of the final ten hit compounds revealed that a large number of non-covalent interactions were formed with the binding site of the human glutaminyl cyclase. It was suggested that the hit compounds reported in this study could help in future designing of potent inhibitors as leads against human glutaminyl cyclase.

Keywords: glutaminyl cyclase, hit lead, pharmacophore model, simulation

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286 A Comparative Study on the Influencing Factors of Urban Residential Land Prices Among Regions

Authors: Guo Bingkun

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With the rapid development of China's social economy and the continuous improvement of urbanization level, people's living standards have undergone tremendous changes, and more and more people are gathering in cities. The demand for urban residents' housing has been greatly released in the past decade. The demand for housing and related construction land required for urban development has brought huge pressure to urban operations, and land prices have also risen rapidly in the short term. On the other hand, from the comparison of the eastern and western regions of China, there are also great differences in urban socioeconomics and land prices in the eastern, central and western regions. Although judging from the current overall market development, after more than ten years of housing market reform and development, the quality of housing and land use efficiency in Chinese cities have been greatly improved. However, the current contradiction between land demand for urban socio-economic development and land supply, especially the contradiction between land supply and demand for urban residential land, has not been effectively alleviated. Since land is closely linked to all aspects of society, changes in land prices will be affected by many complex factors. Therefore, this paper studies the factors that may affect urban residential land prices and compares them among eastern, central and western cities, and finds the main factors that determine the level of urban residential land prices. This paper provides guidance for urban managers in formulating land policies and alleviating land supply and demand. It provides distinct ideas for improving urban planning and improving urban planning and promotes the improvement of urban management level. The research in this paper focuses on residential land prices. Generally, the indicators for measuring land prices mainly include benchmark land prices, land price level values, parcel land prices, etc. However, considering the requirements of research data continuity and representativeness, this paper chooses to use residential land price level values. Reflects the status of urban residential land prices. First of all, based on the existing research at home and abroad, the paper considers the two aspects of land supply and demand and, based on basic theoretical analysis, determines some factors that may affect urban housing, such as urban expansion, taxation, land reserves, population, and land benefits. Factors of land price and correspondingly selected certain representative indicators. Secondly, using conventional econometric analysis methods, we established a model of factors affecting urban residential land prices, quantitatively analyzed the relationship and intensity of influencing factors and residential land prices, and compared the differences in the impact of urban residential land prices between the eastern, central and western regions. Compare similarities. Research results show that the main factors affecting China's urban residential land prices are urban expansion, land use efficiency, taxation, population size, and residents' consumption. Then, the main reason for the difference in residential land prices between the eastern, central and western regions is the differences in urban expansion patterns, industrial structures, urban carrying capacity and real estate development investment.

Keywords: urban housing, urban planning, housing prices, comparative study

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285 Probing Scientific Literature Metadata in Search for Climate Services in African Cities

Authors: Zohra Mhedhbi, Meheret Gaston, Sinda Haoues-Jouve, Julia Hidalgo, Pierre Mazzega

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In the current context of climate change, supporting national and local stakeholders to make climate-smart decisions is necessary but still underdeveloped in many countries. To overcome this problem, the Global Frameworks for Climate Services (GFCS), implemented under the aegis of the United Nations in 2012, has initiated many programs in different countries. The GFCS contributes to the development of Climate Services, an instrument based on the production and transfer of scientific climate knowledge for specific users such as citizens, urban planning actors, or agricultural professionals. As cities concentrate on economic, social and environmental issues that make them more vulnerable to climate change, the New Urban Agenda (NUA), adopted at Habitat III in October 2016, highlights the importance of paying particular attention to disaster risk management, climate and environmental sustainability and urban resilience. In order to support the implementation of the NUA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has identified the urban dimension as one of its priorities and has proposed a new tool, the Integrated Urban Services (IUS), for more sustainable and resilient cities. In the southern countries, there’s a lack of development of climate services, which can be partially explained by problems related to their economic financing. In addition, it is often difficult to make climate change a priority in urban planning, given the more traditional urban challenges these countries face, such as massive poverty, high population growth, etc. Climate services and Integrated Urban Services, particularly in African cities, are expected to contribute to the sustainable development of cities. These tools will help promoting the acquisition of meteorological and socio-ecological data on their transformations, encouraging coordination between national or local institutions providing various sectoral urban services, and should contribute to the achievement of the objectives defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Paris Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals. To assess the state of the art on these various points, the Web of Science metadatabase is queried. With a query combining the keywords "climate*" and "urban*", more than 24,000 articles are identified, source of more than 40,000 distinct keywords (but including synonyms and acronyms) which finely mesh the conceptual field of research. The occurrence of one or more names of the 514 African cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants or countries, reduces this base to a smaller corpus of about 1410 articles (2990 keywords). 41 countries and 136 African cities are cited. The lexicometric analysis of the metadata of the articles and the analysis of the structural indicators (various centralities) of the networks induced by the co-occurrence of expressions related more specifically to climate services show the development potential of these services, identify the gaps which remain to be filled for their implementation and allow to compare the diversity of national and regional situations with regard to these services.

Keywords: African cities, climate change, climate services, integrated urban services, lexicometry, networks, urban planning, web of science

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284 Solar Power Forecasting for the Bidding Zones of the Italian Electricity Market with an Analog Ensemble Approach

Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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283 Osteosuture in Fixation of Displaced Lateral Third Clavicle Fractures: A Case Report

Authors: Patrícia Pires, Renata Vaz, Bárbara Teles, Marco Pato, Pedro Beckert

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Introduction: The management of lateral third clavicle fractures can be challenging due to difficulty in distinguishing subtle variations in the fracture pattern, which may be suggestive of potential fracture instability. They occur most often in men between 30 and 50 years of age, and in individuals over 70 years of age, its distribution is equal between both men and women. These fractures account for 10%–30% of all clavicle fractures and roughly 30%–45% of all clavicle nonunion fractures. Lateral third clavicle fractures may be treated conservatively or surgically, and there is no gold standard, although the risk of nonunion or pseudoarthrosis impacts the recommendation of surgical treatment when these fractures are unstable. There are many strategies for surgical treatment, including locking plates, hook plates fixation, coracoclavicular fixation using suture anchors, devices or screws, tension band fixation with suture or wire, transacromial Kirschner wire fixation and arthroscopically assisted techniques. Whenever taking the hardware into consideration, we must not disregard that obtaining adequate lateral fixation of small fragments is a difficult task, and plates are more associated to local irritation. The aim of the appropriate treatment is to ensure fracture healing and a rapid return to preinjury activities of daily living but, as explained, definitive treatment strategies have not been established and the variety of techniques avalilable add up to the discussion of this topic. Methods and Results: We present a clinical case of a 43-year-old man with the diagnosis of a lateral third clavicle fracture (Neer IIC) in the sequence of a fall on his right shoulder after a bicycle fall. He was operated three days after the injury, and through K-wire temporary fixation and indirect reduction using a ZipTight, he underwent osteosynthesis with an interfragmentary figure-of-eight tension band with polydioxanone suture (PDS). Two weeks later, there was a good aligment. He kept the sling until 6 weeks pos-op, avoiding efforts. At 7-weeks pos-op, there was still a good aligment, starting the physiotherapy exercises. After 10 months, he had no limitation in mobility or pain and returned to work with complete recovery in strength. Conclusion: Some distal clavicle fractures may be conservatively treated, but it is widely accepted that unstable fractures require surgical treatment to obtain superior clinical outcomes. In the clinical case presented, the authors chose an osteosuture technique due to the fracture pattern, its location. Since there isn´t a consensus on the prefered fixation method, it is important for surgeons to be skilled in various techniques and decide with their patient which approach is most appropriate for them, weighting the risk-benefit of each method. For instance, with the suture technique used, there is no wire migration or breakage, and it doesn´t require a reoperation for hardware removal; there is also less tissue exposure since it requires a smaller approach in comparison to the plate fixation and avoids cuff tears like the hook plate. The good clinical outcome on this case report serves the purpose of expanding the consideration of this method has a therapeutic option.

Keywords: lateral third, clavicle, suture, fixation

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