Search results for: damage prediction models

Authors: Belkis L. Cabrera

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Contemporary technological innovations have reshaped possibility, interaction, communication, engagement, education, and training. Indeed, today, a high-quality technology enhanced learning experience can be transformative as much for the learner as for the educator-trainer. As innovative technologies continue to facilitate, support, foster, and enhance collaboration, problem-solving, creativity, adaptiveness, multidisciplinarity, and communication, the field of instructional design (ID) also continues to develop and expand. Shifting its focus from media to the systematic design of instruction, or rather from the gadgets and devices themselves to the theories, models, and impact of implementing educational technology, the evolution of ID marks a restructuring of the teaching, learning, and training paradigms. However, with all of its promise, this latter component of ID remains underdeveloped. The majority of ID models are crafted and guided by learning theories and, therefore, most models are constructed around student and educator roles rather than trainer roles. Thus, when these models or systems are employed for training purposes, they usually have to be re-fitted, tweaked, and stretched to meet the training needs. This paper is concerned with the training or professional development (PD) facet of instructional design and how ID models built on teacher-to-teacher interaction and dialogue can support the creation of professional learning communities (PLCs) or communities of practice (CoPs), which can augment learning and PD experiences for all. Just as technology is changing the face of education, so too can it change the face of PD within the educational realm. This paper not only provides a new ID model but using innovative technologies such as Padlet and Thinkbinder, this paper presents a concrete example of how a traditional body-to-body, brick, and mortar learning community can be transferred and transformed into the online context.

Keywords: communities of practice, e-learning, educational reform, instructional design, professional development, professional learning communities, technology, training

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Alejandro Dinkelberg, Michael Quayle

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Within agent-based modeling, opinion dynamics is the field that focuses on modeling people's opinions. In this prolific field, most of the literature is dedicated to the exploration of the two 'degrees of freedom' and how they impact the model’s properties (e.g., the average final opinion, the number of final clusters, etc.). These degrees of freedom are (1) the interaction rule, which determines how agents update their own opinion, and (2) the network topology, which defines the possible interaction among agents. In this work, we show that the third degree of freedom exists. This can be used to change a model's output up to 100% of its initial value or to transform two models (both from the literature) into each other. Since opinion dynamics models are representations of the real world, it is fundamental to understand how people’s opinions can be measured. Even for abstract models (i.e., not intended for the fitting of real-world data), it is important to understand if the way of numerically representing opinions is unique; and, if this is not the case, how the model dynamics would change by using different representations. The process of measuring opinions is non-trivial as it requires transforming real-world opinion (e.g., supporting most of the liberal ideals) to a number. Such a process is usually not discussed in opinion dynamics literature, but it has been intensively studied in a subfield of psychology called psychometrics. In psychometrics, opinion scales can be converted into each other, similarly to how meters can be converted to feet. Indeed, psychometrics routinely uses both linear and non-linear transformations of opinion scales. Here, we analyze how this transformation affects opinion dynamics models. We analyze this effect by using mathematical modeling and then validating our analysis with agent-based simulations. Firstly, we study the case of perfect scales. In this way, we show that scale transformations affect the model’s dynamics up to a qualitative level. This means that if two researchers use the same opinion dynamics model and even the same dataset, they could make totally different predictions just because they followed different renormalization processes. A similar situation appears if two different scales are used to measure opinions even on the same population. This effect may be as strong as providing an uncertainty of 100% on the simulation’s output (i.e., all results are possible). Still, by using perfect scales, we show that scales transformations can be used to perfectly transform one model to another. We test this using two models from the standard literature. Finally, we test the effect of scale transformation in the case of finite precision using a 7-points Likert scale. In this way, we show how a relatively small-scale transformation introduces both changes at the qualitative level (i.e., the most shared opinion at the end of the simulation) and in the number of opinion clusters. Thus, scale transformation appears to be a third degree of freedom of opinion dynamics models. This result deeply impacts both theoretical research on models' properties and on the application of models on real-world data.

Keywords: degrees of freedom, empirical validation, opinion scale, opinion dynamics

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Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

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Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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Authors: Robson da C. Santos, Carlos Henrique de A. S. P. Coutinho, Lucas Moreira Dias, Gerson Gomes Cunha

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The article refers to the development of an augmented reality 3D display, through the control of servo motors and projection of image with aid of video projector on the model. Augmented Reality is a branch that explores multiple approaches to increase real-world view by viewing additional information along with the real scene. The article presents the broad use of electrical, electronic, mechanical and industrial automation for geospatial visualizations, applications in mathematical models with the visualization of functions and 3D surface graphics and volumetric rendering that are currently seen in 2D layers. Application as a 3D display for representation and visualization of Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and Digital Surface Models (DSM), where it can be applied in the identification of canyons in the marine area of the Campos Basin, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The same can execute visualization of regions subject to landslides, as in Serra do Mar - Agra dos Reis and Serranas cities both in the State of Rio de Janeiro. From the foregoing, loss of human life and leakage of oil from pipelines buried in these regions may be anticipated in advance. The physical design consists of a table consisting of a 9 x 16 matrix of servo motors, totalizing 144 servos, a mesh is used on the servo motors for visualization of the models projected by a retro projector. Each model for by an image pre-processing, is sent to a server to be converted and viewed from a software developed in C # Programming Language.

Keywords: visualization, 3D models, servo motors, C# programming language

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Authors: Adil Balla Elkrail

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Visual MODFLOW computer codes were selected to simulate head distribution, calculate the groundwater budgets of the area, and evaluate the effect of external stresses on the groundwater head and to demonstrate how the groundwater model can be used as a comparative technique in order to optimize utilization of the groundwater resource. A conceptual model of the study area, aquifer parameters, boundary, and initial conditions were used to simulate the flow model. The trial-and-error technique was used to calibrate the model. The most important criteria used to check the calibrated model were Root Mean Square error (RMS), Mean Absolute error (AM), Normalized Root Mean Square error (NRMS) and mass balance. The maps of the simulated heads elaborated acceptable model calibration compared to observed heads map. A time length of eight years and the observed heads of the year 2004 were used for model prediction. The predictive simulation showed that the continuation of pumping will cause relatively high changes in head distribution and components of groundwater budget whereas, the low deficit computed (7122 m3/d) between inflows and outflows cannot create a significant drawdown of the potentiometric level. Hence, the area under consideration may represent a high permeability and productive zone and strongly recommended for further groundwater development.

Keywords: aquifers, model simulation, groundwater, calibrations, trail-and- error, prediction

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Authors: Priyesh Kumar Singh, S. K. Sharma, Sanjay Verma, C. Samuel

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Supplier Relationship Management (SRM), is strategic planning and managing of all interactions with suppliers to maximize its value. Its application varies from construction industries to healthcare system and investment banks to aviation industries. Several buyer-supplier relationship models, as well as supplier selection and evaluation strategies, have been documented by many academicians and researchers. In this paper, through a comprehensive literature review of over 30 published papers, different theoretical models, empirical data and conclusions were analysed relating to SRM to find its role in establishing better supplier relationships. These journal articles were searched by using the keyword “supplier relationship management,” in databases of Mendeley Library, ProQuest, EBSCO and Google Scholar. This paper reviews the academic literature on different relationship models, supplier evaluation, and selection strategies to discuss its implications in different situations. It also describes the dominant factors responsible for buyer-supplier relationships such trust and power. Finally, conclusions have been drawn which can be validated by various researchers and can help practitioners in industries.

Keywords: supplier relationship management, supplier performance, supplier evaluation, supplier selection strategies

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Authors: Bharat Kumar, Deepak Kumar, Vijay Chaudhry

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Zirconium alloys exhibit low neutron absorption cross-section and excellent mechanical properties. Due to these unique characteristics, these materials are widely used in designing core components of pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs). Another material that is widely used in the design of reactor core is stainless steel. Under operating conditions of the reactor, there are possibilities for mechanical and tribological interaction between the components made of zirconium alloy (Zr-2.5 Nb) and stainless steel (SS-410). This may result in wear of the material. To study the tribological characteristics of Zr-2.5 Nb and SS-410, low amplitude reciprocating wear tests are conducted at room temperature and at high temperatures (260 degrees Celsius). The tests are conducted at frequencies ranging from 5 Hz to 25 Hz. The displacement amplitude is varied from 200 µm to 600 µm. The responses are recorded, analyzed and correlated with damage observed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and an optical profilometer. Energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) is used to study the damage mechanism prevailing at the contact interface. A higher coefficient of friction (COF) is observed at higher temperatures as compared to the one at room temperature. Tests carried out at high temperature reveals adhesive wear as the dominant mechanism resulting in significant material transfer.

Keywords: PHWRs, Zr-2.5Nb, SS-410, wear

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Authors: Francisco Reyes, Hector Ramirez

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In the coastal zones are home to mangrove swamps, coral reefs, and seagrass ecosystems, which are the most biodiverse and fragile on the planet. These areas support a great diversity of marine life; they are also extraordinarily important for humans in the provision of food, water, wood, and other associated goods and services; they also contribute to climate regulation. The lack of an automated model that generates information on the dynamics of changes in coastlines and coastal erosion is identified as a central problem. Coastlines were determined from 1984 to 2020 on the Google Earth platform Engine from Landsat and Sentinel images, using the Normalized Differential Water Index (MNDWI) and Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) v5.0. Starting from the 2020 coastline, the 10-year prediction (Year 2031) was determined with the erosion of 238.32 hectares and an accretion of 181.96 hectares, while the 20-year prediction (Year 2041) will be presented an erosion of 544.04 hectares and an accretion of 133.94 hectares. The erosion and accretion of Playa Muelle in the municipality of Puerto Colombia were established, which will register the highest value of erosion. The coverage that presented the greatest change was that of artificialized Territories.

Keywords: coastline, coastal erosion, MNDWI, Google Earth Engine, Colombia

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Authors: Emmanuel Osaze Oshoiribhor, Adetokunbo MacGregor John-Otumu

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There has been a need in recent years to predict student academic achievement prior to graduation. This is to assist them in improving their grades, especially for those who have struggled in the past. The purpose of this research is to use supervised learning techniques to create a model that predicts student academic progress. Many scholars have developed models that predict student academic achievement based on characteristics including smoking, demography, culture, social media, parent educational background, parent finances, and family background, to mention a few. This element, as well as the model used, could have misclassified the kids in terms of their academic achievement. As a prerequisite to predicting if the student will perform well in the future on related courses, this model is built using a logistic regression classifier with basic features such as the previous semester's course score, attendance to class, class participation, and the total number of course materials or resources the student is able to cover per semester. With a 96.7 percent accuracy, the model outperformed other classifiers such as Naive bayes, Support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Random forest, and Adaboost. This model is offered as a desktop application with user-friendly interfaces for forecasting student academic progress for both teachers and students. As a result, both students and professors are encouraged to use this technique to predict outcomes better.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ML, logistic regression, performance, prediction

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Authors: Kourosh Modarresi

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The Netflix problem has brought the topic of “Recommendation Systems” into the mainstream of computer science, mathematics, and statistics. Though much progress has been made, the available algorithms do not obtain satisfactory results. The success of these algorithms is rarely above 5%. This work is based on the belief that the main challenge is to come up with “scalable personalization” models. This paper uses an adaptive regularization of inverse singular value decomposition (SVD) that applies adaptive penalization on the singular vectors. The results show far better matching for recommender systems when compared to the ones from the state of the art models in the industry.

Keywords: convex optimization, LASSO, regression, recommender systems, singular value decomposition, low rank approximation

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Authors: Abderahman Efhialelbum

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The period since the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, and the collapse of the former Soviet Union in December 1985 has seen a major change in the economies and labour markets of Eastern Europe. The events also had reverberating effects across Asia and South America and parts of Africa, including Libya. This article examines the typologies and the models of transition economies. Also, it sheds light on the Libyan transition in particular and the impact of Qadhafi’s regime on the transition process. Finally, it illustrates how the Libyan transition process followed the trajectory of other countries using economic indicators such as free trade, property rights, and inflation.

Keywords: transition, economy, typology, model, Libya

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Authors: N. Didiş Körhasan, D. Kaltakçı Gürel

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Many students have difficulty in learning physics from elementary to university level. In addition, students' expectancy, attitude, and motivation may be influenced negatively with their experience (failure) and prejudice about physics learning. For this reason, physics educators, who are also physics teachers, search for the best ways to make students' learning of physics easier by considering cognitive, affective, and psychomotor issues in learning. This research critically discusses the history of physics education, fundamental pedagogical approaches, and models to teach physics, and transformation of physics education with recent research.

Keywords: pedagogy, physics, physics education, science education

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Authors: Siamack A. Shirazi, Farzin Darihaki

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Solid particles could be found in many multiphase flows, including transport pipelines and pipe fittings. Such particles interact with the pipe material and cause erosion which threats the integrity of the system. Therefore, predicting the erosion rate is an important factor in the design and the monitor of such systems. Mechanistic models can provide reliable predictions for many conditions while demanding only relatively low computational cost. Mechanistic models utilize a representative particle trajectory to predict the impact characteristics of the majority of the particle impacts that cause maximum erosion rate in the domain. The erosion caused by particle impacts is not only due to the direct impacts but also random impingements. In the present study, an alternative model has been introduced to describe the erosion due to random impingement of particles. The present model provides a realistic trend for erosion with changes in the particle size and particle Stokes number. The present model is examined against the experimental data and CFD simulation results and indicates better agreement with the data incomparison to the available models in the literature.

Keywords: erosion, mechanistic modeling, particles, multiphase flow, gas-liquid-solid

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Authors: Sulemana Ibrahim

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Food security remains a paramount global challenge, with vulnerable regions grappling with issues of hunger and malnutrition. This study embarks on a comprehensive exploration of data-driven strategies aimed at ameliorating food security in such regions. Our research employs a multifaceted approach, integrating data analytics to predict crop yields, optimizing supply chains, and enhancing food distribution networks. The study unfolds as a multi-dimensional analysis, commencing with the development of robust machine learning models harnessing remote sensing data, historical crop yield records, and meteorological data to foresee crop yields. These predictive models, underpinned by convolutional and recurrent neural networks, furnish critical insights into anticipated harvests, empowering proactive measures to confront food insecurity. Subsequently, the research scrutinizes supply chain optimization to address food security challenges, capitalizing on linear programming and network optimization techniques. These strategies intend to mitigate loss and wastage while streamlining the distribution of agricultural produce from field to fork. In conjunction, the study investigates food distribution networks with a particular focus on network efficiency, accessibility, and equitable food resource allocation. Network analysis tools, complemented by data-driven simulation methodologies, unveil opportunities for augmenting the efficacy of these critical lifelines. This study also considers the ethical implications and privacy concerns associated with the extensive use of data in the realm of food security. The proposed methodology outlines guidelines for responsible data acquisition, storage, and usage. The ultimate aspiration of this research is to forge a nexus between data science and food security policy, bestowing actionable insights to mitigate the ordeal of food insecurity. The holistic approach converging data-driven crop yield forecasts, optimized supply chains, and improved distribution networks aspire to revitalize food security in the most vulnerable regions, elevating the quality of life for millions worldwide.

Keywords: data-driven strategies, crop yield prediction, supply chain optimization, food distribution networks

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Authors: Petr Gurný

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One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the credit-scoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: credit-scoring models, multidimensional subordinated Lévy model, probability of default

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Authors: Dong-Hyun Kim, Wan-Ho Chung, Hak-Sung Kim

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In this work, non-destructive evaluation was conducted to measure the sheet resistance of silver nanowire coated film and find a damage of that film using terahertz (THz) wave. Pulse type THz instrument was used, and the measurement was performed under transmission and pitch-catch reflection modes with 30 degree of incidence angle. In the transmission mode, the intensity of the THz wave was gradually increased as the conductivity decreased. Meanwhile, the intensity of THz wave was decreased as the conductivity decreased in the pitch-catch reflection mode. To confirm the conductivity of the film, sheet resistance was measured by 4-point probe station. Interaction formula was drawn from a relation between the intensity and the sheet resistance. Through substituting sheet resistance to the formula and comparing the resultant value with measured maximum THz wave intensity, measurement of sheet resistance using THz wave was more suitable than that using 4-point probe station. In addition, the damage on the silver nanowire coated film was detected by applying the THz image system. Therefore, the reliability of the entire film can be also be ensured. In conclusion, real-time monitoring using the THz wave can be applied in the transparent electrodes with detecting the damaged area as well as measuring the sheet resistance.

Keywords: terahertz wave, sheet resistance, non-destructive evaluation, silver nanowire

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Authors: Nabila Jaman, K. E. Hoque, S. Sawall, M. Ferdows

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Coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the most lethal diseases of the cardiovascular diseases. Coronary arteries stenosis and bifurcation angles closely interact for myocardial infarction. We want to use computer-aided design model coupled with computational hemodynamics (CHD) simulation for detecting several types of coronary artery stenosis with different locations in an idealized model for identifying virtual fractional flow reserve (vFFR). The vFFR provides us the information about the severity of stenosis in the computational models. Another goal is that we want to imitate patient-specific computed tomography coronary artery angiography model for constructing our idealized models with different left anterior descending (LAD) and left circumflex (LCx) bifurcation angles. Further, we want to analyze whether the bifurcation angles has an impact on the creation of narrowness in coronary arteries or not. The numerical simulation provides the CHD parameters such as wall shear stress (WSS), velocity magnitude and pressure gradient (PGD) that allow us the information of stenosis condition in the computational domain.

Keywords: CAD, CHD, vFFR, bifurcation angles, coronary stenosis

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Authors: M. Rilliard

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Based on a Multiliteracies-inspired and sociolinguistically-informed advanced French composition class, this study employed autobiographical narratives from speakers traditionally considered non-legitimate models for L2 teaching purposes of inspiring students to develop an authentic L2 voice and to see themselves as legitimate L2 speakers. Students explored their L2 identities in French through a self-inspired fictional character. Two autobiographical narratives of identity quest by non-traditional French speakers provided them guidance through this process: the novel Le Bleu des Abeilles (2013) and the film Qu’Allah Bénisse la France (2014). Written and French oral productions for different genres, as well as metalinguistic reflections in English, were collected and analyzed. Results indicate that ideas and materials that were relatable to students, namely relatable experiences and relatable language, were most useful to them in developing their L2 voices and achieving authentic and legitimate L2 speakership. These results point towards the benefits of using non-traditional speakers as pedagogical models, as they serve to legitimize students’ sense of their own L2-speakership, which ultimately leads them towards a better, more informed, mastery of the language.

Keywords: foreign language classroom, L2 identity, L2 learning and teaching, L2 writing, sociolinguistics

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Authors: Akinbo Razak Yinka, Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Oladokun Oluwagbenga Peter

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Time series data are sequences of observations collected over a period of time. Such data can be used to predict health outcomes, such as disease progression, mortality, hospitalization, etc. The Statistical approach is based on mathematical models that capture the patterns and trends of the data, such as autocorrelation, seasonality, and noise, while Neural methods are based on artificial neural networks, which are computational models that mimic the structure and function of biological neurons. This paper compared both parametric and non-parametric time series models of patients treated for malaria in Maternal and Child Health Centres in Lagos State, Nigeria. The forecast methods considered linear regression, Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA and SARIMA Modeling for the parametric approach, while Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network were used for the non-parametric model. The performance of each method is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as criteria to determine the accuracy of each model. The study revealed that the best performance in terms of error was found in MLP, followed by the LSTM and ARIMA models. In addition, the Bootstrap Aggregating technique was used to make robust forecasts when there are uncertainties in the data.

Keywords: ARIMA, bootstrap aggregation, MLP, LSTM, SARIMA, time-series analysis

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Authors: M. K. Bin Subhan, P. Cullen, C. Howard

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A recent study by the World Corrosion Organization estimated that corrosion related damage causes $2.5tr worth of damage every year. As such, a low cost easily scalable solution is required to the corrosion problem which is economically viable. Graphene is an ideal anti-corrosion barrier layer material due to its excellent barrier properties and chemical stability, which makes it impermeable to all molecules. However, attempts to employ graphene as a barrier layer has been hampered by the fact that defect sites in graphene accelerate corrosion due to the inert nature of graphene which promotes galvanic corrosion at the expense of the metal. The recent discovery of spontaneous dissolution of charged graphite intercalation compounds in aprotic solvents enables defect free graphene platelets to be employed for anti-corrosion applications. These ‘inks’ of defect-free charged graphene platelets in solution can be coated onto a metallic surfaces via electroplating to form a homogeneous barrier layer. In this paper, initial data showing homogeneous coatings of graphene barrier layers on steel coupons via electroplating will be presented. This easily scalable technique also provides a controllable method for applying different barrier thicknesses from ultra thin layers to thick opaque coatings making it useful for a wide range of applications.

Keywords: anti-corrosion, defect-free, electroplating, graphene

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

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In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building, Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that this simplification would only lead to the error that is less than 7% for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which can cover most situations.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Timothy Kayode Samson, Adedoyin Isola Lawal

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The past five years have shown a sharp increase in public interest in the crypto market, with its market capitalization growing from $100 billion in June 2017 to $2158.42 billion on April 5, 2022. Despite the outrageous nature of the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the use of skewed error innovation distributions in modelling the volatility behaviour of these digital currencies has not been given much research attention. Hence, this study models the volatility of 5 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance coin, and USD Coin) using four variants of GARCH models (GJR-GARCH, sGARCH, EGARCH, and APARCH) estimated using three skewed error innovation distributions (skewed normal, skewed student- t and skewed generalized error innovation distributions). Daily closing prices of these currencies were obtained from Yahoo Finance website. Finding reveals that the Binance coin reported higher mean returns compared to other digital currencies, while the skewness indicates that the Binance coin, Tether, and USD coin increased more than they decreased in values within the period of study. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, negative skewness was obtained, meaning that within the period of study, the returns of these currencies decreased more than they increased in value. Returns from these cryptocurrencies were found to be stationary but not normality distributed with evidence of the ARCH effect. The skewness parameters in all best forecasting models were all significant (p<.05), justifying of use of skewed error innovation distributions with a fatter tail than normal, Student-t, and generalized error innovation distributions. For Binance coin, EGARCH-sstd outperformed other volatility models, while for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and USD coin, the best forecasting models were EGARCH-sstd, APARCH-sstd, EGARCH-sged, and GJR-GARCH-sstd, respectively. This suggests the superiority of skewed Student t- distribution and skewed generalized error distribution over the skewed normal distribution.

Keywords: skewed generalized error distribution, skewed normal distribution, skewed student t- distribution, APARCH, EGARCH, sGARCH, GJR-GARCH

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Authors: Vimanyu Chadha, Ranganath M. Singari

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Drilling composite materials is a frequently practiced machining process during assembling in various industries such as automotive and aerospace. However, drilling of glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP) composites is significantly affected by damage tendency of these materials under cutting forces such as thrust force and torque. The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of the various cutting parameters such as cutting speed and feed rate; subsequently also to study the influence of number of layers on delamination produced while drilling a GFRP composite. A plan of experiments, based on Taguchi techniques, was instituted considering drilling with prefixed cutting parameters in a hand lay-up GFRP material. The damage induced associated with drilling GFRP composites were measured. Moreover, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was performed to obtain minimization of delamination influenced by drilling parameters and number layers. The optimum drilling factor combination was obtained by using the analysis of signal-to-noise ratio. The conclusion revealed that feed rate was the most influential factor on the delamination. The best results of the delamination were obtained with composites with a greater number of layers at lower cutting speeds and feed rates.

Keywords: analysis of variance, delamination, design optimization, drilling, glass fiber reinforced plastic composites, Taguchi method

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Authors: Sean Paulsen, Michael Casey

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In this work we present a self-supervised pretraining framework for transformers on functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data. First, we pretrain our architecture on two self-supervised tasks simultaneously to teach the model a general understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of human auditory cortex during music listening. Our pretraining results are the first to suggest a synergistic effect of multitask training on fMRI data. Second, we finetune the pretrained models and train additional fresh models on a supervised fMRI classification task. We observe significantly improved accuracy on held-out runs with the finetuned models, which demonstrates the ability of our pretraining tasks to facilitate transfer learning. This work contributes to the growing body of literature on transformer architectures for pretraining and transfer learning with fMRI data, and serves as a proof of concept for our pretraining tasks and multitask pretraining on fMRI data.

Keywords: transfer learning, fMRI, self-supervised, brain decoding, transformer, multitask training

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Authors: Chong Wang, Kellem M. Soares, Luis E. Kosteski

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The problem of toughening in brittle materials reinforced by fibers is complex, involving all the mechanical properties of fibers, matrix, the fiber/matrix interface, as well as the geometry of the fiber. An appropriate method applicable to the simulation and analysis of toughening is essential. In this work, we performed simulations and analysis of toughening in brittle matrix reinforced by randomly distributed fibers by means of the discrete elements method. At first, we put forward a mechanical model of the contribution of random fibers to the toughening of composite. Then with numerical programming, we investigated the stress, damage and bridging force in the composite material when a crack appeared in the brittle matrix. From the results obtained, we conclude that: (i) fibers with high strength and low elasticity modulus benefit toughening; (ii) fibers with relatively high elastic modulus compared to the matrix may result in considerable matrix damage (spalling effect); (iii) employment of high-strength synthetic fiber is a good option. The present work makes it possible to optimize the parameters in order to produce advanced ceramic with desired performance. We believe combination of the discrete element method (DEM) with the finite element method (FEM) can increase the versatility and efficiency of the software developed.

Keywords: bridging stress, discrete element method, fiber reinforced composites, toughening

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Authors: Jean-Pierre Dubois, Jihad S. Daba, H. Karam, J. Abdallah

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Tsunami early detection and warning systems have proved to be of ultimate importance, especially after the destructive tsunami that hit Japan in March 2012. Such systems are crucial to inform the authorities of any risk of a tsunami and of the degree of its danger in order to make the right decision and notify the public of the actions they need to take to save their lives. The purpose of this research is to enhance existing tsunami detection and warning systems. We first propose an automated and miniaturized model of an early tsunami detection and warning system. The model for the operation of a tsunami warning system is simulated using the data acquisition toolbox of Matlab and measurements acquired from specified internet pages due to the lack of the required real-life sensors, both seismic and hydrologic, and building a graphical user interface for the system. In the second phase of this work, we implement various satellite image filtering schemes to enhance the acquired synthetic aperture radar images of the tsunami affected region that are masked by speckle noise. This enables us to conduct a post-tsunami damage extent study and calculate the percentage damage. We conclude by proposing improvements to the existing telecommunication infrastructure of existing warning tsunami systems using a migration to IP-based networks and fiber optics links.

Keywords: detection, GIS, GSN, GTS, GPS, speckle noise, synthetic aperture radar, tsunami, wiener filter

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Panagiotis Karadimos, Leonidas Anthopoulos

Abstract:

Predicting the actual cost and duration in construction projects concern a continuous and existing problem for the construction sector. This paper addresses this problem with modern methods and data available from past public construction projects. 39 bridge projects, constructed in Greece, with a similar type of available data were examined. Considering each project’s attributes with the actual cost and the actual duration, correlation analysis is performed and the most appropriate predictive project variables are defined. Additionally, the most efficient subgroup of variables is selected with the use of the WEKA application, through its attribute selection function. The selected variables are used as input neurons for neural network models through correlation analysis. For constructing neural network models, the application FANN Tool is used. The optimum neural network model, for predicting the actual cost, produced a mean squared error with a value of 3.84886e-05 and it was based on the budgeted cost and the quantity of deck concrete. The optimum neural network model, for predicting the actual duration, produced a mean squared error with a value of 5.89463e-05 and it also was based on the budgeted cost and the amount of deck concrete.

Keywords: actual cost and duration, attribute selection, bridge construction, neural networks, predicting models, FANN TOOL, WEKA

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Yasaman Tohidi, Rouzbeh Riazi, Shidvash Vakilipour, Masoud Mohammadi

Abstract:

The objective of the present study is to numerically investigate the effect of CO₂ replacement of N₂ in air stream on the flame characteristics of the CH₄ turbulent diffusion flame. The Open source Field Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) has been used as the computational tool. In this regard, laminar flamelet and modified k-ε models have been utilized as combustion and turbulence models, respectively. Results reveal that the presence of CO₂ in air stream changes the flame shape and maximum flame temperature. Also, CO₂ dilution causes an increment in CO mass fraction.

Keywords: CH4 diffusion flame, CO2 dilution, OpenFOAM, turbulent flame

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

Abstract:

In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period

Procedia PDF Downloads 511

Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

Abstract:

Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 133