Search results for: financial vulnerability

Authors: Kaoutar Abbahaddou, Mohammed Salah Chiadmi

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The need to find a relevant way to predict the next-day price of a stock index is a real concern for many financial stakeholders and researchers. We have known across years the proliferation of several methods. Nevertheless, among all these methods, the most controversial one is a machine learning algorithm that claims to be reliable, namely neural networks. Thus, the purpose of this article is to study the prediction power of neural networks in the particular case of Islamic finance as it is an under-looked area. In this article, we will first briefly present a review of the literature regarding neural networks and Islamic finance. Next, we present the architecture and principles of artificial neural networks most commonly used in finance. Then, we will show its empirical application on two Islamic stock indexes. The accuracy rate would be used to measure the performance of the algorithm in predicting the right price the next day. As a result, we can conclude that artificial neural networks are a reliable method to predict the next-day price for Islamic indices as it is claimed for conventional ones.

Keywords: Islamic finance, stock price prediction, artificial neural networks, machine learning

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Authors: Bobuchi Ken-Opurum

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The impacts of climate change on urban settlements is growing. In the global south, communities are even more vulnerable and suffer there is an increased vulnerability from due to climate change disasters such as flooding and high temperatures. This is primarily due to high intensity rainfall, low-lying coasts, inadequate infrastructure, and limited resources. According to the Emergency Events Database, floods were the leading cause of disaster -based deaths in the global south between 2006 and 2015. This includes deaths from heat stress related health outcomes. Adapting to climate vulnerabilities is paramount in reducing the significant redevelopment costs from climate disasters. Governments and urban planners provide top-down approaches such as evacuation, and disaster and emergency communication. While they address infrastructure and public services, they are not always able to address the immediate and critical day to day needs of poor and vulnerable populations. There is growing evidence that some bottom-up strategies and grassroots initiatives of self-build housing such as in urban informal settlements are successful in coping and adapting to hydroclimatic impacts. However, these research findings are not consolidated and the evaluation of the resilience outcomes of the bottom-up strategies are limited. Using self-build housing as a model for sustainable and resilient urban planning, this research aimed to consolidate the flood and heat stress resilient design solutions, analyze the effectiveness of these solutions, and develop guidelines and methods for adopting these design solutions into mainstream housing in megathermal climates. The methodological approach comprised of analyses of over 40 ethnographic based peer reviewed literature, white papers, and reports between the years 2000 and 2019 to identify coping strategies and grassroots initiatives that have been applied by occupants and communities of the global south. The results of the research provide a consolidated source and prioritized list of the best bottom-up strategies for communities in megathermal climates to improve the lives of people in some of the most vulnerable places in the world.

Keywords: resilient, design, megathermal, climate change

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Authors: K.T Alade, A.F Lawal, A.A Omonori

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Construction is an everlasting activity across the globe. Likewise, the problem of delay in the construction industry is a global phenomenon. Although there are several reasons that may be responsible for delay during construction, this may vary from place to place and can be reduced to the minimum when identified. This study considered the major causes and effects of delay in the execution of construction projects in Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria. Using literatures, a total number of 30 causes of construction delays were identified. The convenient sampling technique was used to select sixty respondents for a survey. The respondents comprise twenty-two (22) clients, eighteen consultants (18) and twenty (20) contractors. The analyses of the primary data revealed that the three most important causes of delay in construction projects in Akure, Ondo State Nigeria are poor site management and supervision, inadequate contractors experience and client’s financial difficulties. Based on the findings of this study, recommendations were given on how the causes and effects of delay in construction can be mitigated.

Keywords: Akure, causes, construction projects, delay, effects

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Authors: Loonibha Manandhar, Rajendra Bhandari, Kumud Raj Kafle

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Nepal’s Terai region is a part of the Ganges river basin which is one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world, with recurrent monsoon flooding causing millions in damage and the death and displacement of hundreds of people and households every year. The vulnerability of human settlements to natural disasters such as floods is increasing, and mapping changes in land use practices and hydro-geological parameters is essential in developing resilient communities and strong disaster management policies. The objective of this study was to develop a flood hazard zonation map of Orai Khola watershed and map the decadal land use/land cover dynamics of the watershed. The watershed area was delineated using SRTM DEM, and LANDSAT images were classified into five land use classes (forest, grassland, sediment and bare land, settlement area and cropland, and water body) using pixel-based semi-automated supervised maximum likelihood classification. Decadal changes in each class were then quantified using spatial modelling. Flood hazard mapping was performed by assigning weights to factors slope, rainfall distribution, distance from the river and land use/land cover on the basis of their estimated influence in causing flood hazard and performing weighed overlay analysis to identify areas that are highly vulnerable. The forest and grassland coverage increased by 11.53 km² (3.8%) and 1.43 km² (0.47%) from 1996 to 2016. The sediment and bare land areas decreased by 12.45 km² (4.12%) from 1996 to 2016 whereas settlement and cropland areas showed a consistent increase to 14.22 km² (4.7%). Waterbody coverage also increased to 0.3 km² (0.09%) from 1996-2016. 1.27% (3.65 km²) of total watershed area was categorized into very low hazard zone, 20.94% (60.31 km²) area into low hazard zone, 37.59% (108.3 km²) area into moderate hazard zone, 29.25% (84.27 km²) area into high hazard zone and 31 villages which comprised 10.95% (31.55 km²) were categorized into high hazard zone area.

Keywords: flood hazard, land use/land cover, Orai river, supervised maximum likelihood classification, weighed overlay analysis

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Authors: Waganesh Zeleke, Abebaw Minaye

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This study examined the act, means, and purpose of human trafficking in the case of Ethiopian migrant returnees from the Middle East and South Africa. Using a questionnaire survey data was gathered from 1078 returnees. Twelve focus group discussions were used to solicit detailed experience of returnee about the process of their 'unsafe' immigration. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis results revealed that against the mainstream thinking of human trafficking means such as forcing, coercing, abducting or threatening, traffickers used 'victims’ free will' means by providing false promises to and capitalizing on the vulnerability of migrants. The migrants’ living condition including unemployment, ambitious view to change their life, and low level of risk perception were found to be risk factors which made them vulnerable and target of the brokers and smugglers who served as a catalyst in the process of their 'unsafe' migration. Equal to the traffickers/brokers/agency, the migrants’ family, friends and Ethiopian embassies contributed to the deplorable situation of migrant workers. 64.4% of the returnees reported that their migration is self-initiated, and 20% reported peer pressure and 13.8 percent reported family pressure, and it is only 1.8% who reported having been pushed by brokers. The findings revealed that 69.5% of the returnees do not know about the lifestyle and culture of the host community before their leave. In a similar vein, 50.9% of the returnees reported that they do not know about the nature of the work they are to do and their responsibilities. Further, 81% of the returnees indicated that the pre-migration training they received was not enough in equipping them with the required skill. Despite the returnees experiences of various forms of abuse and exploitation in the journey and at the destination they still have a positive attitude for migration (t=9.7 mean of 18.85 with a test value of 15). The returnees evaluated the support provided by sending agencies and Ethiopian embassies in the destination to be poor. 51.8% of the migrants do not know the details of the contract they signed during migration. Close to 70% of the returnees expressed that they had not got any legal support from stakeholders when they faced problems. What is more is that despite all these 27.9% of the returnees indicated re-immigrating as their plan. Based on these findings on the context and experience of Ethiopian migrant returnees, implications for training, policy, research, and intervention are discussed.

Keywords: trafficking, migrant, returnee, Ethiopia, experience, reconceptualizing

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Authors: Jong-Hyo Park, Eunyoung Choi, Jae-Yeon Lim, Seon-Suk Lee, Yeong-Rong Koo, Ji-Ung Kwon, Kyung-Sung Kim, Jong-Ik Lee, Juhan Park, Hyun-Kyu Lee, Won-Kyoung Oh, Jisang Lee, Jiwon Choe

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Due to COVID-19, cyber violence among youths has soared as they spend more time online than before. In contrast to the deepening concerns, measurement tools that can assess the vulnerability of cyber violence in individual youths still need to be supplemented. The measurement tools lack consideration of various factors related to cyber violence among youths. Most of the tools are self-report questionnaires, and these adolescents' self-report questionnaire forms can underestimate the harmful behavior and overestimate the damage experience. Therefore, this study aims to develop a multi-report measurement tool for youths that can reliably measure individuals' ecological factors related to cyber violence. The literature review explored factors related to cyber violence, and the questions were constructed. The face validity of the questions was confirmed by conducting focus group interviews. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses (N=671) were also conducted for statistical validation. This study developed a multi-report measurement tool for cyber violence with 161 questions, consisting of six domains: online behavior, cyber violence awareness, victimization-perpetration-witness experience, coping efficacy (individuals, peers, teachers, and parents), psychological characteristics, and pro-social capabilities. In addition to self-report from a youth respondent, this measurement tool includes peers, teachers, and parents reporting for the respondent. It is possible to reliably measure the ecological factors of individual youths who are vulnerable or highly resistant to cyber violence. In schools, teachers could refer to the measurement results for guiding students, better understanding their cyber violence conditions, and assessing their pro-social capabilities. With the measurement results, teachers and police officers could detect perpetrators or victims and intervene immediately. In addition, this measurement tool could analyze the effects of the prevention and intervention programs for cyber violence and draw appropriate suggestions.

Keywords: adolescents, cyber violence, cyber violence measurement tool, measurement tool, multi-report measurement tool, youths

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Authors: Muhammad Ilham Agus Salim, Mohammad Ali

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In this article, we have elaborated a study over the nature of Islamic financial transaction by comparing between Dinar and IDR currency in Indonesia. We have found the interesting issue among scholars and practitioners in which Dinar would be a single currency ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), then becoming motivation and added value research. The assessment among dinar volatility analysis for three years ago and IDR fluctuation as well as outlook qualitative test regarding dinar are components of analysis that weak Indonesian currency should be altered to be better coinage. The value of dinar more stable than IDR and also eligible as a currency e.g. limited quantities, easy to carry, durable, easy to saved, and has the same quality. On the other hand, the existing of IDR has defeated by inflation. The EViews program explained that Dinar at current level still fluctuate, but in the first different have fixed variant. The result of analysis describing that dinar has potential as the medium exchange, because the material of dinar is relevant and feasible since 14 century until present. Therefore, dinar should be considered to solve Indonesia crisis today.

Keywords: medium of exchange, dinar & IDR currency, volatility analysis, EViews program

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Authors: Jeferson Gomes Dos Santos, Mirelle Cristina De Abreu Quintela

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Considering that after the 1988 Constitution, in Brazil, municipalities have acquired new roles in the face of a financial reality that jeopardizes more substantial actions, the Public Budget is essential for the establishment of guidelines for action, within each budgetary reality. Within this, the present work sought to understand the budget profile of the mining municipality of Ataleia, with a view to identifying its budget composition, in relation to the main sources of revenue and expenditure. To achieve the purposes of the study, information was collected on the municipality's finances, from the years 2000 to 2016, visualizing the progress of its revenues in terms of funding and origin, and expenses in terms of nature and purpose. It was evidenced that the municipality, having its budget revenue in the period, still shows great dependence on intergovernmental transfers, as the own collection was relatively low. The budget expenditure of the period was mainly influenced by social expenditures, but it must be said that the municipality complied with the limits of spending, minimum and maximum, established by law.

Keywords: expenses, municipal budget, planning, revenue

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Authors: Norazilawati Binti Md Dahlal, Nabiila Binti Mat Yusoff, Anis Najiha Binti Ahmad

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With the increasing demand for halal products, there is a growing emphasis on ensuring their quality and adherence to halal standards. However, the vulnerability of halal goods to fraud and adulteration poses a significant challenge to the integrity of the halal industry. Whistleblowers play a pivotal role in safeguarding the safety and integrity of halal food by exposing wrongdoings, misconduct, and fraudulent practices. This study explores the implementation of whistleblowing practices aligned with halal and toyyib principles to effectively address halal food fraud issues. Whistleblowing is defined as the act of disclosing information about misconduct, immorality, or unlawful activities to relevant authorities or the public. Although whistleblowing is universally recognized as beneficial, it exposes whistleblowers to substantial risks, including career setbacks, reputation damage, and personal safety threats. Despite legal protections, whistleblowers often face retaliation and hesitancy to come forward. By integrating the principles of halal and toyyib, which encompass the physical and spiritual as well as material and supernatural elements, effective whistleblowing practices can be developed. These principles include the physical characteristic of the product in accordance with Shari’ah law (P1); products that are sourced ethically and responsibly (P2); Products that meet high standard of quality and safety (P3); functioning as servant and caliph of Allah in managing according to Allah's commands and prohibitions (P4); not excessively wasteful or extravagant (P5); positive moral and spiritual implications associated with the product (P6); and aimed at achieving prosperity in both this life and the Hereafter (P7). Employing a quantitative research approach, this study examines Islamic primary data sources and secondary data sources to investigate the prevalence and impact of whistleblowing in the halal industry. By analyzing the principles of halal and toyyib and exploring the importance of whistleblowing effective whistleblowing practices, this research aims to enhance our understanding of promoting accountability and justice within the halal industry from an Islamic perspective.

Keywords: whistleblowing, halal and toyyib, food fraud, halal integrity, Islamic practices

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Authors: Sabiu Abdullahi Yau

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Nigeria is a high fertility country that experiences eye-popping population growth, with no end in sight. However, there is evidence that its large population inhibits government’s efforts in meeting the basic needs of the people. Moreover, past and present governments of Nigeria have been committing huge amount of financial resources to meet the basic infrastructural requirements capable of propelling growth and development. Despite the country’s large population and abundant natural resources, poverty, unemployment, rural-urban migration, deforestation and inadequate infrastructural facilities have been persistently on the increase resulting in consistent failure of government policies to impact positively on the economy. This paper, however, identifies and critically analyses the major development challenges caused by population growth in Nigeria using secondary data. The paper concludes that for the Nigeria’s economy to develop, all the identified challenges posed by rapid population growth must be promptly and squarely addressed.

Keywords: economic development, population, growth, Nigeria

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Authors: Bassam Istanbouli

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Organizations are living in a very competitive and dynamic environment which is constantly changing. In order to achieve a high level of service, the products and processes of these organizations need to be flexible and evolvable. If the supply chains are not modular and well designed, changes can bring combinatorial effects to most areas of a company from its management, financial, documentation, logistics and its information structure. Applying the normalized system’s concept to segments of the supply chain may help in reducing those ripple effects, but it may also increase lead times. Lead times are important and can become a decisive element in gaining customers. Industries are always under the pressure in providing good quality products, at competitive prices, when and how the customer wants them. Most of the time, the customers want their orders now, if not yesterday. The above concept will be proven by examining lead times in a manufacturing example before and after applying normalized systems concept to that segment of the chain. We will then show that although we can minimize the combinatorial effects when changes occur, the lead times will be increased.

Keywords: supply chain, lead time, normalization, modular

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Authors: AbdulHameed Badmas Yusuf

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Islamophobia is unfounded fear of Islam and, more accurately, of his adherents. This phenomenon has found a fertile terrain in Nigeria given her status as a multireligious society where Muslims and Christians co-exist. Over the years, Islamophobia has taken constitutional, diplomatic, educational, financial, and political dimensions in the country. Any move by Muslims to adhere to their religious dictates, within the constitutional framework, is misconstrued by Christians - their religious counterparts- as a systematic way of Islamizing the country. Against this backdrop, this paper casts a look at Islamophobia from the five dimensions mentioned above. It shall identify possible causes of Islamophobia and proffer solutions accordingly. Available resources as well as events in the recent past reveal that Islamophobia is not unconnected with orientalism and terrorism, which are informed by prejudice and ignorance respectively. As such, the paper suggests adequate knowledge and tolerance as inevitable tools to curtail the menace of Islamophobia. This will go a long way in enhancing mutual tolerance and peaceful co-existence among the adherents of Christianity, Islam, and other religions in Nigeria. Both historical and analytical methods are used in this paper.

Keywords: islamophobia, islam, Nigeria, orientalism, terrorism

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Authors: Muhammad Yousaf Sadiq

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The complexity arises in defining the construction quality due to its perception, based on inherent market conditions and their requirements, the diversified stakeholders itself and their desired output. An quantitative survey based approach was adopted in this constructive study. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted for the assessment of construction Quality perception and expectations in the context of quality improvement technique. The survey feedback of professionals of the leading construction organizations/companies of Pakistan construction industry were analyzed. The financial capacity, organizational structure, and construction experience of the construction firms formed basis for their selection. The quality perception was found to be project-scope-oriented and considered as an excess cost for a construction project. Any quality improvement technique was expected to maximize the profit for the employer, by improving the productivity in a construction project. The study is beneficial for the construction professionals to assess the prevailing construction quality perception and the expectations from implementation of any quality improvement technique in construction projects.

Keywords: construction quality, expectation, improvement, perception

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Authors: Krzysztof Rafał, Weronika Radziszewska, Hubert Biedka, Oskar Grabowski, Krzysztof Mik

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We present a method to choose energy storage technologies and their parameters for the economic operation of a microgrid. A grid-connected system with local loads and PV generation is assumed, where an energy storage system (ESS) is attached to minimize energy cost by providing energy balancing and arbitrage functionalities. The ESS operates in a hybrid configuration and consists of two unique technologies operated in a coordinated way. Based on given energy profiles and economical data a model calculates financial flow for ESS investment, including energy cost and ESS depreciation resulting from degradation. The optimization strategy proposes a hybrid set of two technologies with their respective power and energy ratings to minimize overall system cost in a given timeframe. Results are validated through microgrid simulations using real-life input profiles.

Keywords: energy storage, hybrid energy storage, cost-benefit analysis, microgrid, battery sizing

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Authors: Syauqi Asfiya R.

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This study examines the constraints faced by Islamic boarding school (Pesantren) in Indonesia in effectively addressing physical violence within their educational institutions. The vulnerability to violence in the education sector remains pervasive, including in Pesantren, primarily due to the residential nature of the boarding school system, which necessitates round-the-clock interaction among students from diverse backgrounds. Additionally, environmental factors, parenting styles, individual characteristics, and media influences further complicate the conditions within Pesantren. Numerous cases of physical violence have been reported, underscoring the need to identify the constraints of violence prevention strategies implemented by Pesantren. Adopting a case study approach, this research focuses on a Modern Pesantren in Tangerang and utilizes interviews conducted with 20 victims of violence to explore the aspects of Pesantren's violence prevention strategies that may have been overlooked. The findings indicate that many students face a dilemma when reporting the violence they experience, as the imposed sanctions often prove excessively severe and carry the risk of exacerbating the violence perpetrated by the offenders. Consequently, numerous victims choose to remain silent, thereby enabling the perpetuation of violence. Moreover, senior students (mudabbir) are prohibited from giving punishment, but there are still many who punish other students based on their personal moods. Furthermore, violence is also perpetrated by religious teachers (ustadz), despite their responsibility for addressing such issues. The evaluation process often follows a unidirectional approach wherein the santri have limited freedom compared to the Mudabbir or ustadz when it comes to providing feedback. Additionally, sentiment within specific student generations is reinforced due to the segregation of dormitories based on cohorts. Lastly, the absence of psychologists to address the trauma experienced by victims further exacerbates the situation. This research sheds light on the constraints faced by Pesantren in effectively preventing physical violence and emphasizes the importance of implementing comprehensive measures to create safer and nurturing learning environments within these institutions.

Keywords: physical violence, islam, boarding school, constraint

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Authors: Darren Zou

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Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, predict, stock

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Authors: Saeid Asghari

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The growing interest in sustainability and healthy lifestyles has stimulated the development of solutions that promote mindful consumption and healthier choices. One such solution is the use of transparent graded lanes in product packaging, which enables consumers to visually track their product consumption and encourages portion control. However, the extent to which this packaging affects consumer behavior, trust, and loyalty towards a product or brand, as well as the effectiveness of messaging on the graded lanes, remains unclear. The research aims to examine the impact of transparent graded lanes on consumer behavior, trust, and loyalty towards products or brands in the context of the Janbo chain supermarket in Tehran, Iran, focusing on Ketchup and edible oils containers. A representative sample of 720 respondents is selected using quota sampling based on sex, age, and financial status. The study assesses the effect of messaging on the graded lanes in enhancing consumer recall and recognition of the product at the time of purchase, increasing repeat purchases, and fostering long-term relationships with customers. Furthermore, the potential outcomes of using transparent graded lanes, including the promotion of healthy consumption habits and the reduction of food waste, are also considered. The findings and results can inform the development of effective messaging strategies for graded lanes and suggest ways to enhance consumer engagement with product packaging. Moreover, the study's outcomes can contribute to the broader discourse on sustainable consumption and healthy lifestyles, highlighting the potential role of packaging innovations in promoting these values. We used four theories (social cognitive theory, self-perception theory, nudge theory, and marketing and consumer behavior) to examine the effect of these transparent graded lanes on consumer behavior. The conceptual model integrates the use of transparent graded lanes, consumer behavior, trust and loyalty, messaging, and promotion of healthy consumption habits. The study aims to provide insights into how transparent graded lanes can promote mindful consumption, increase consumer recognition and recall of the product, and foster long-term relationships with customers. Findings suggest that the use of transparent graded lanes on Ketchup and edible oils containers can have a positive impact on consumer behavior, trust, and loyalty towards a product or brand, as well as promote mindful consumption and healthier choices. The messaging on the graded lanes is also found to be effective in promoting recall and recognition of the product at the time of purchase and encouraging repeat purchases. However, the impact of transparent graded lanes may be limited by factors such as cultural norms, personal values, and financial status. Broadly speaking, the investigation provides valuable insights into the potential benefits and challenges of using transparent graded lanes in product packaging, as well as effective strategies for promoting healthy consumption habits and building long-term relationships with customers.

Keywords: packaging customer behavior, purchase, brand loyalty, healthy consumption

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Authors: Carrie Prendergast, Lisa Bortman

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The focus of this presentation will be on non-traditional (adult) students as they seek their Bachelors’ degrees online. This presentation will specifically examine nontraditional online student perceptions of Tinto’s success conditions: expectations, support, assessment, and engagement. Expectations include those of the student, the faculty and the institution. Support includes academic, social, and financial support. Feedback and assessment encompasses feedback in the classroom, upon entry, and on an institutional level. The fourth success condition is involvement or engagement of students with their peers and faculty in both academic and social contexts. This program will review and discuss a rich, detailed description of the lived experience of the nontraditional online student to add to the paucity of research on this understudied population and guide higher education professionals in supporting this growing population of students.

Keywords: adult students, online education, student success, vincent tinto

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Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya

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In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.

Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk

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Authors: Filiz Celik, Rachel Harrad, Rob Keasley, Paul Bennett

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The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a significant challenge to many, with some groups with particular vulnerability to adverse psychological impacts. These include those disadvantaged by mental ill health, either pre-existing or occurring during pregnancy or post-partum. Using a qualitative approach, the research aimed to identify the challenges posed by COVID-19 to women, their infants and families during the perinatal period and to suggest what further support can help alleviate the adverse mental health impact of COVID-19. 21 expectant and new mothers who were currently receiving support via a peri-natal mental health service participated in semi-structured interviews. In these interviews, participants explored the impact of changes in social circumstances and healthcare providers as a result of COVID-19 restrictions, with the resultant audio recordings transcribed and analyzed using Reflexive Thematic Analysis (RTA). Based on these accounts, it was concluded that women, their partners and potentially their infants experienced heightened peri-natal distress, and their experience at this time increased their risk for future mental health problems. Women described emerging as more vulnerable, owing to their role as primary caregivers during the perinatal period and also explained how social isolation and limited access to services meant protective buffers against mental health deterioration were reduced and the resources they needed in order to develop resilience were weakened. Although partners were invited to take part in the research, a sizeable volume of data could not be generated to fully assess the impact of the pandemic on a partner’s mental well-being. However, women expressed concerns about the paternal mental health of partners and husbands which invites us to be further vigilant to paternal mental health and associated experiences. Overall, these interviews serve to highlight and provide a voice to these women and their families who describe experiencing disadvantage at an already vulnerable time in their lives, as well as illustrating the need for services to prioritize the needs of this population when acute events strike, be those future pandemics or other disasters.

Keywords: patient experience, perinatal mental health, covid-19 pandemic, heightened anxiety, birth trauma, post-natal well-being

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Authors: Changhong Guo, Shaomei Fang, Yong He

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In this paper, fractional Black-Scholes models for the European option pricing were established based on the fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm), which generalizes the concepts of the classical Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion and the G-Brownian motion, and that can be used to be a tool for considering the long range dependence and uncertain volatility for the financial markets simultaneously. A generalized fractional Black-Scholes equation (FBSE) was derived by using the Taylor’s series of fractional order and the theory of absence of arbitrage. Finally, some explicit option pricing formulas for the European call option and put option under the FBSE were also solved, which extended the classical option pricing formulas given by F. Black and M. Scholes.

Keywords: European option pricing, fractional Black-Scholes equations, fractional g-Brownian motion, Taylor's series of fractional order, uncertain volatility

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Authors: Francesco Saverio Angiò

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The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant / Syria (ISIL/S), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad, also known as ‘Boko Haram’ (BH), have fought successfully against Syria and Iraq, Mali, Nigeria’s government, respectively. According to Napoleoni, the ‘shell-state’ concept can explain the economic dimension and the financing model of the ISIL insurgency. However, she argues that AQIM and BH did not properly plan their financial model. Consequently, her idea would not be suitable to these groups. Nevertheless, AQIM and BH’s economic performances and their (short) territorialisation suggest that their financing models respond to a well-defined strategy, which they were able to adapt to new circumstances. Therefore, Napoleoni’s idea of ‘shell-state’ can be applied to the three jihadist armed groups. In the last five years, together with other similar entities, ISIL/S, AQIM and BH have been fighting against governments with insurgent tactics and terrorism acts, conquering and ruling a quasi-state; a physical space they presented as legitimate territorial entity, thanks to a puritan version of the Islamic law. In these territories, they have exploited the traditional local economic networks. In addition, they have contributed to the development of legal and illegal transnational business activities. They have also established a justice system and created an administrative structure to supply services. Napoleoni’s ‘shell-state’ can describe the evolution of ISIL/S, AQIM and BH, which has switched from an insurgency to a proto or a quasi-state entity, enjoying a significant share of power over territories and populations. Napoleoni first developed and applied the ‘Shell-state’ concept to describe the nature of groups such as the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), before using it to explain the expansion of ISIL. However, her original conceptualisation emphasises on the economic dimension of the rise of the insurgency, focusing on the ‘business’ model and the insurgents’ financing management skills, which permits them to turn into an organisation. However, the idea of groups which use, coordinate and grab some territorial economic activities (at the same time, encouraging new criminal ones), can also be applied to administrative, social, infrastructural, legal and military levels of their insurgency, since they contribute to transform the insurgency to the same extent the economic dimension does. In addition, according to Napoleoni’s view, the ‘shell-state’ prism is valid to understand the ISIL/S phenomenon, because the group has carefully planned their financial steps. Napoleoni affirmed that ISIL/S carries out activities in order to promote their conversion from a group relying on external sponsors to an entity that can penetrate and condition local economies. On the contrary, ‘shell-state’ could not be applied to AQIM or BH, which are acting more like smugglers. Nevertheless, despite its failure to control territories, as ISIL has been able to do, AQIM and BH have responded strategically to their economic circumstances and have defined specific dynamics to ensure a flow of stable funds. Therefore, Napoleoni’s theory is applicable.

Keywords: shell-state, jihadist insurgency, proto or quasi-state entity economic planning, strategic financing

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Authors: Leticia Lengler, Vania Estivalete, Vivian Flores Costa, Tais De Andrade, Lisiane Fellini Faller

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Social entrepreneurship has emerged and driven a new development perspective, and as the literature mentions, it is based on innovation, and mainly, on the creation of social value, rather than personal wealth and shareholders. In this field of study, one of the focuses of discussion refers to the distinct characteristics of the individuals responsible for socially directed initiatives, named as social entrepreneurs. To contribute to this perspective, the present study aims to identify the values related to work that guide the performance of social entrepreneurs, members of enterprises that have developed themselves within a social incubator at a federal institution of higher education in Brazil. Each person's value system is present in different facets of his life, manifesting himself in his choices and in the way he conducts the relationship with other people in society. Especially the values of work, the focus of this research, play a significant role in organizational studies, since they are considered one of the important guiding principles of the behavior of individuals in the work environment. Regarding the method of the study, a descriptive and qualitative research was carried out. In the data collection, 24 entrepreneurs, members of five different enterprises belonging to the social incubator, were interviewed. The research instrument consisted of three open questions, which could be answered with the support of a "disc of values", an artifact organized to clearly demonstrate the values of the work to the respondents. The analysis of the interviews took into account the categories defined a priori, based on the model proposed by previous authors who validated these constructs within their research contexts, contemplating the following dimensions: Self-determination and stimulation; Safety; Conformity; Universalism and benevolence; Achievement; and Power. It should be noted that, in order to provide a better understanding of the interviewees, in the "disc of values" used in the research, these dimensions were represented by the objectives that define them, being respectively: Challenge; Financial independence; Commitment; Welfare of others; Personal success; And Power. Some preliminary results show that, as guiding principles of the investigation, priority is given to work values related to Self-determination and stimulation, Conformity and Universalism and benevolence. Such findings point to the importance given by these individuals to independent thinking and acting, as well as to novelty and constant challenge. Still, they demonstrate the appreciation of commitment to their enterprise, the people who make it and the quality of their work. They also point to the relevance of the possibility of contributing to the greater social good, that is, of the search for the well-being of close people and of society, as it is implied in models of social entrepreneurship coming from literature. With a lower degree of priority, the values denominated Safety and Realization, as the financial question at work and the search for satisfaction and personal success, through the use of socially recognized skills were mentioned aspects with little emphasis by social entrepreneurs. The Power value was not considered as guiding principle of the work for the respondents.

Keywords: qualitative study, social entrepreneur, social incubator, values of work

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Authors: Gabriela Sardinha Pacheco

Abstract:

In a context of elderly population growth, the need to provide high quality infrastructure and services to these people becomes even more evident. The act of designing a space dedicated to elderly people goes beyond the concept of well-being and reaches to a point of evaluating and changing the way which society sees this part of the population as well as how it can build a relationship with energy efficiency. In this context, the care facilities for elderly have an extremely important role to provide this infrastructure to the population. A common issue is that, for many times, these facilities face financial issues, and the full operation of the establishment can be impacted. The intention of this work is to develop a project in which the energy efficiency measures can be lived daily and that the residents of the institution can participate actively, directly, or indirectly in the construction of this relationship. The use of energy efficiency strategies should become a natural process when thinking about buildings as it is an essential step to provide increased well-being, climate change mitigation, and cost reduction.

Keywords: energy efficiency, environmental comfort, long-term care facility, well-being

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Authors: Guilan Huang

Abstract:

In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data from selected fast food restaurants and full service restaurants for tracking changes in the occurrence of foodborne illness risk factors. This paper discussed how we customized spatial random sampling method by considering financial position and availability of FDA resources, and how we enriched restaurants data with location. Location information of restaurants provides opportunity for quantitatively determining random sampling within non-government units (e.g.: 240 kilometers around each data-collector). Spatial analysis also could optimize data-collectors’ work plans and resource allocation. Spatial analytic and processing platform helped us handling the spatial random sampling challenges. Our method fits in FDA’s ability to pinpoint features of foodservice establishments, and reduced both time and expense on data collection.

Keywords: geospatial technology, restaurant, retail food risk factor study, spatially random sampling

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Authors: S. Mani, M. Kafil, E. Asadi

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Condition Monitoring (CM) of electrical equipment has gained remarkable importance during the recent years; due to huge production losses, substantial imposed costs and increases in vulnerability, risk and uncertainty levels. Power cables feed numerous electrical equipment such as transformers, motors, and electric furnaces; thus their condition assessment is of a very great importance. This paper investigates electrical, structural and environmental failure sources, all of which influence cables' performances and limit their uptimes; and provides a comprehensive framework entailing practical CM guidelines for maintenance of cables in industries. The multilevel CM framework presented in this study covers performance indicative features of power cables; with a focus on both online and offline diagnosis and test scenarios, and covers short-term and long-term threats to the operation and longevity of power cables. The study, after concisely overviewing the concept of CM, thoroughly investigates five major areas of power quality, Insulation Quality features of partial discharges, tan delta and voltage withstand capabilities, together with sheath faults, shield currents and environmental features of temperature and humidity; and elaborates interconnections and mutual impacts between those areas; using mathematical formulation and practical guidelines. Detection, location, and severity identification methods for every threat or fault source are also elaborated. Finally, the comprehensive, practical guidelines presented in the study are presented for the specific case of Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) feeder MV power cables in Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), the largest steel company in MENA region, in Iran. Specific technical and industrial characteristics and limitations of a harsh industrial environment like MSC EAF feeder cable tunnels are imposed on the presented framework; making the suggested package more practical and tangible.

Keywords: condition monitoring, diagnostics, insulation, maintenance, partial discharge, power cables, power quality

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Authors: Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Imron Mawardi, Achsania Hendratmi

Abstract:

Murabaha is the most popular contract by the Islamic banks in Indonesia, since there is opinion stating that the risk level of mudharaba and musyaraka are higher and the return is uncertain. This research aims to analyze the difference of return, risk, and variation coefficient between profit sharing-based and trading-based financing in Islamic bank. This research uses quantitative approach using Wilcoxon signed rank test with data sampled from 13 Indonesian Islamic banks, collected from their quarterly financial reports from 2011 to 2015. The result shows the significant difference in return, while risk and variation coefficient are almost same. From the analysis, it can be concluded that profit sharing-based financing is less desirable not because of its risk. Trading-based financing is more desirable than the profit sharing because of its return.

Keywords: financing, Islamic bank, return, risk

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Authors: María Teresa Baquero, Ester Higueras

Abstract:

One of the challenges facing 21st century cities, is their adaptation to the phenomenon of an ageing population. International policies have been developed, such as the "Global Network for Age-friendly Cities and Communities". These cities must recognize the diversity of the elderly population, and facilitate an active, healthy, satisfied aging and promote inclusion. In order to promote active and healthy aging, older people should be encouraged to engage in physical activity, sunbathe, socialize and enjoy the public open spaces in the city. Some studies recognize thermal comfort as one of the factors that most influence the use of public open spaces. However, although some studies have shown vulnerability to thermal extremes and environmental conditions in older people, there is little research on thermal comfort for older adults, because it is usually analyzed based on the characteristics of the ¨average young person¨ without considering the physiological, physical and psychological differences that characterize the elderly. This study analyzes the relationship between the microclimate parameters as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sky view factor (SVF) with the personal thermal perception of older adults in three public spaces in Madrid, through a mixed methodology that combines weather measurements with interviews, made during the year 2018. Statistical test like Chi-square, Spearman, and analysis of variance were used to analyze the relationship between preference votes and thermal sensation votes with environmental and personal parameters. The results show that there is a significant correlation between thermal sensation and thermal preference with the measured air temperature, age, level of clothing, the color of clothing, season, time of the day and kind of space while no influence of gender or other environmental variables was detected. These data would contribute to the design of comfortable public spaces that improve the welfare of the elderly contributing to "active and healthy aging" as one of the 21st century challenges cities face.

Keywords: healthy ageing, older adults, outdoor public space, thermal perception

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Authors: Maria Giovanna Pacifico

Abstract:

Maintenance, in Italy, is not yet a consolidated practice despite the benefits that could come from. Among the main reasons, there are the lack of financial resources and personnel in the public administration and a general lack of knowledge about how to activate and to manage a prevented and programmed maintenance. The experimentation suggests that users and tourists could be involved in the maintenance process from the knowledge phase to the monitoring ones by using mobile devices. The goal is to increase the quality of Facility Management for cultural heritage, prioritizing usage needs, and limiting interference between the key stakeholders. The method simplifies the consolidated procedures for the Information Systems, avoiding a loss in terms of quality and amount of information by focusing on the users' requirements: management economy, user safety, accessibility, and by receiving feedback information to define a framework that will lead to predictive maintenance. This proposal was designed to be tested in the Archaeological Park of Pompeii on the state property asset.

Keywords: asset maintenance, key stakeholders, Pompeii, user requirement

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Authors: Shah Muhammad Butt, Ahmed Masaud Ansair

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Present financial crisis in Higher Educational Institutes (HEIs) is causing lots of problems such as considerable budget cuts, which makes it difficult to meet the ever growing IT based research and learning needs. Institutions are rapidly planning and promoting cloud based approaches for their academic and research needs. A cost-effective hybrid cloud framework for HEIs will provide educational services for campus or intercampus communication. Hybrid cloud framework comprises private and public cloud approaches. This paper will propose the framework based on the Open Source Cloud (OpenNebula for Virtualization, Eucalyptus for Infrastructure and Aneka for programming development environment) combined with CSPs services which are delivered to the end-user via the internet from public clouds such as Google, Microsoft, Zoho, and Salesforce.

Keywords: educational services, hybrid campus cloud, open source, higher educational institutes

Procedia PDF Downloads 471