Search results for: area and volume

Authors: Berhanu Keno Terfa

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To understand the consequences of urbanization, accurate, and long-term representation of urban dynamics is essential. Remote sensing data from various multi-temporal satellite images viz., TM (1987), TM (1995), ETM+ (2005) and OLI (2017) were used. An integrated method, landscape metrics, built-up density, and urban growth type analysis were employed to analyze the pattern, process, and overall growth status in the city. The result showed that the built-up area had increased by 541.3% between 1987 and 2017, at an average annual increment of 8.9%. The area of urban expansion in a city has tripled during the 2005-2017 period as compared to 187- 1995. The major growth took place in the east and southeast directions during 1987–1995 period, whereas predominant built-up development was observed in south and southeast direction during 1995–2017 period. The analysis using landscape metrics and urban typologies showed that Hawassa experienced a fragmented and irregular spatiotemporal urban growth patterns, mostly by extension, suggesting a strong tendency towards sprawl in the past three decades.

Keywords: Hawassa, spatial patterns, remote sensing, multi-temporal, urban sprawl

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Authors: M. Budakoglu, M. Karaman

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Lake Acıgöl is located in area with limited influences from urban and industrial pollution sources, there is nevertheless a need to understand all potential lithological and anthropogenic sources of priority contaminants in this closed basin. This study discusses vertical and horizontal distribution pattern of major, trace elements of recent lake sediments to better understand their current geochemical analog with lithological units in the Lake Acıgöl basin. This study also provides reliable background levels for the region by the detailed surfaced lithological units data. The detail results of surface, subsurface and shallow core sediments from these relatively unperturbed ecosystems, highlight its importance as conservation area, despite the high-scale industrial salt production activity. While P2O5/TiO2 versus MgO/CaO classification diagram indicate magmatic and sedimentary origin of lake sediment, Log(SiO2/Al2O3) versus Log(Na2O/K2O) classification diagrams express lithological assemblages of shale, iron-shale, vacke and arkose. The plot between TiO2 vs. SiO2 and P2O5/TiO2 vs. MgO/CaO also supports the origin of the primary magma source. The average compositions of the 20 different lithological units used as a proxy for geochemical background in the study area. As expected from weathered rock materials, there is a large variation in the major element content for all analyzed lake samples. The A-CN-K and A-CNK-FM ternary diagrams were used to deduce weathering trends. Surface and subsurface sediments display an intense weathering history according to these ternary diagrams. The most of the sediments samples plot around UCC and TTG, suggesting a low to moderate weathering history for the provenance. The sediments plot in a region clearly suggesting relative similar contents in Al2O3, CaO, Na2O, and K2O from those of lithological samples.

Keywords: Lake Acıgöl, recent lake sediment, geochemical speciation of major and trace elements, heavy metals, Denizli, Turkey

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Authors: Ari Prasetyo, Taufik Faturohman

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The COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia is part of the ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It was confirmed to have spread to Indonesia on 2 March 2020. Moreover, the government of Indonesia has been conducting a local lockdown to limit people's movement from one city to another city. Therefore, this situation has impact on business operation, especially on highway companies listed on the Indonesia stock exchange. This study evaluates and measures three companies’ financial performance and health conditions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2016 – 2020. The measurement is conducted by using financial ratio analysis and the Altman Z-score method. The ratio used to measure the financial ratio analysis is taken from the decree of the Ministry of SOE’s KEP-100/MBU/2002 about the company’s health level condition. From the decree, there are eight financial ratios used such as return on equity (ROE), return on investment (ROI), current ratio, cash ratio, collection period, inventory turnover, total asset turnover, and total equity to total asset. Altman Z-score is used to calculate the financial distress condition. The result shows that the highway companies for the period 2016 – 2020 are as follows: PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (AA, BB, BB, BB, C), PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk (BB, AA, BB, BBB, C), and PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (BB, BB, AA, BBB, C). In addition, the Altman Z-score assessment performed in 2016-2020 shows that PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk was in the grey zone area for 2015-2018 and in the distress zone for 2019-2020. PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk was in the grey zone area for 2015-2019 and in the distress zone for 2020. PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk was in the grey zone area for 2015-2018 and in the distress zone for 2019-2020.

Keywords: financial performance, financial ratio, Altman Z-score, financial distress, highway company

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Authors: Sawan Kumar Jangid

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The paper attempts to study various facets of urbanization and regional planning in the framework of the present conditions and future needs. Urbanization is a dynamic system in which development and changes are prominent features; which implies population growth and changes in the primary, secondary and tertiary sector in the economy. Urban population is increasing day by day due to a natural increase in population and migration from rural areas, and the impact is bound to have in urban areas in terms of infrastructure, environment, water supply and other vital resources. For the organized way of planning and monitoring the implementation of Physical urban and regional plans high-resolution satellite imagery is the potential solution. Now the Remote Sensing data is widely used in urban as well as regional planning, infrastructure planning mainly telecommunication and transport network planning, highway development, accessibility to market area development in terms of catchment and population built-up area density. With Remote Sensing it is possible to identify urban growth, which falls outside the formal planning control. Remote Sensing and GIS technique combined together facilitate the planners, in making a decision, for general public and investors to have relevant data for their use in minimum time. This paper sketches out the Urbanization modal for the future development of Urban and Regional Planning. The paper suggests, a dynamic approach towards regional development strategy.

Keywords: development, dynamic, migration, resolution

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Authors: Mili Dutta, Lokender Prashad

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Introduction: Population ageing is a phenomenon that can be observed around the globe. The health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a measurement of health status of an individual, and it describes the effect of physical and mental health disorders on the well-being of a person. The present study is aimed to describe the influence of socio-economic characteristics of elderly on their health-related quality of life in India. Methods: EQ-5D instrument and population-based EQ-5D index score has been measured to access the HRQOL among elderly. Present study utilized the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) data which was conducted in 2007 in India. Multiple Logistic Regression model and Multivariate Linear Regression model has been employed. Result: In the present study, it was found that the female are more likely to have problems in mobility (OR=1.41, 95% Cl: 1.14 to 1.74), self-care (OR=1.26, 95% Cl: 1.01 to 1.56) and pain or discomfort (OR=1.50, 95% Cl: 1.16 to 1.94). Elderly residing in rural area are more likely to have problems in pain/discomfort (OR=1.28, 95% Cl: 1.01 to 1.62). More older and non-working elderly are more likely whereas higher educated and highest wealth quintile elderly are less likely to have problems in all the dimensions of EQ-5D viz. mobility, self-care, usual activity, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression. The present study has also shown that oldest old people, residing in rural area and currently not working elderly are more likely to report low EQ-5D index score whereas elderly with high education level and high wealth quintile are more likely to report high EQ-5D index score than their counterparts. Conclusion: The present study has found EQ-5D instrument as the valid measure for assessing the HRQOL of elderly in India. The study indicates socio-economic characteristics of elderly such as female, more older people, residing in rural area, non-educated, poor and currently non-working as the major risk groups of having poor HRQOL in India. Findings of the study will be helpful for the programmes and policy makers, researchers, academician and social workers who are working in the field of ageing.

Keywords: ageing, HRQOL, India, EQ-5D, SAGE, socio-economic characteristics

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Authors: Arezou Hajhashemi, Karim Asgari, Masoud Etemadifar, Maryam Keyvani, Ali Hekmatnia

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Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is one of the most prevalent demyelinating diseases in CNS. As in other chronic cerebral diseases, impairment in cognitive functioning and in memory is popular. Because of the inflammatory and demyelinating nature of the disease, the localization of plaques in different parts of the Prefrontal and Limbic System, may lead to memorial symptoms. This investigation was intended to study relationship between frequency of plaques and memorial symptoms arising from dysfunction limbic system and prefrontal of patients with MS. The sample was selected randomly from patients with MS with memory problem, who have been referred to Isfahan Multiple Sclerosis Society. Brain System Test and Memory Test was administered to the sample, and their MRI's were analyzed by specialist in order to indentify two different parts of plaques. The data was analyzed by SPSS. The results showed that there were significant relationship between MS plaques and prefrontal's dysfunction and memorial symptom related to prefrontal area; however, there were no significant relationship between MS plaques and limbic system's dysfunction and memorial symptoms related to limbic system area. The results of this study suggest that memorial symptoms due to injury regions of the brain have the most significant relationship to prefrontal. Better judgment about these results needs more studies in future.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, magnetic image, brain injury, behavior disorder

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Authors: Mohammed A. Sakr, Tarek M. Khalifa, Walid N. Mansour

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External bonding of fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) plates to reinforced concrete (RC) beams is an effective technique for flexural strengthening. This paper presents an analytical parametric study on the behavior of RC continuous beams flexurally strengthened with externally bonded FRP plates on the upper and lower fibers, conducted using simple uniaxial nonlinear finite element model (UNFEM). UNFEM is able to estimate the load-carrying capacity, different failure modes and the interfacial stresses of RC continuous beams flexurally strengthened with externally bonded FRP plates on the upper and lower fibers. The study investigated the effect of five key parameters on the behavior and moment redistribution of FRP-reinforced continuous beams. The investigated parameters were the length of the FRP plate, the width and the thickness of the FRP plate, the ratio between the area of the FRP plate to the concrete area, the cohesive shear strength of the adhesive layer, and the concrete compressive strength. The investigation resulted in a number of important conclusions reflecting the effects of the studied parameters on the behavior of RC continuous beams flexurally strengthened with externally bonded FRP plates.

Keywords: continuous beams, parametric study, finite element, fiber reinforced polymer

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Authors: Kibrom Hadush

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Countries like Ethiopia, whose economy is mainly rain-fed dependent agriculture, are highly vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes. Sub-seasonal (monthly) and dekadal forecasts are hence critical for crop production and water resource management. Therefore, this paper was conducted to study the predictability and variability of Kiremt rainfall over the northern half of Ethiopia on monthly and dekadal time scales in association with global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at different lag time. Trends in rainfall have been analyzed on annual, seasonal (Kiremt), monthly, and dekadal (June–September) time scales based on rainfall records of 36 meteorological stations distributed across four homogenous zones of the northern half of Ethiopia for the period 1992–2017. The results from the progressive Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method shows that there is no significant trend in the annual, Kiremt, monthly and dekadal rainfall total at most of the station's studies. Moreover, the rainfall in the study area varies spatially and temporally, and the distribution of the rainfall pattern increases from the northeast rift valley to northwest highlands. Methods of analysis include graphical correlation and multiple linear regression model are employed to investigate the association between the global SSTs and Kiremt rainfall over the homogeneous rainfall zones and to predict monthly and dekadal (June-September) rainfall using SST predictors. The results of this study show that in general, SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the main source of the predictive skill of the Kiremt rainfall variability over the northern half of Ethiopia. The regional SSTs in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean as well contribute to the Kiremt rainfall variability over the study area. Moreover, the result of the correlation analysis showed that the decline of monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over most of the homogeneous zones of the study area are caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period 1992 - 2017. It is also found that the monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over the northern, northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia are positively correlated with the SST in the western equatorial Pacific, eastern and tropical northern the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are positively correlated to the Kiremt season rainfall in the northeastern highlands. Overall, the results showed that the prediction models using combined SSTs at various ocean regions (equatorial and tropical) performed reasonably well in the prediction (With R2 ranging from 30% to 65%) of monthly and dekadal rainfall and recommends it can be used for efficient prediction of Kiremt rainfall over the study area to aid with systematic and informed decision making within the agricultural sector.

Keywords: dekadal, Kiremt rainfall, monthly, Northern Ethiopia, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Abhishek Agarwal, Manoj Sarda, Juhi Kaushik, Vatsal Sanjay, Arup Kumar Das

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Propagation of fire through a non-air conditioned railway compartment is studied by virtue of numerical simulations. Simultaneous computational fire dynamics equations, such as Navier-Stokes, lumped species continuity, overall mass and energy conservation, and heat transfer are solved using finite volume based (for radiation) and finite difference based (for all other equations) solver, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). A single coupe with an eight berth occupancy is used to establish the numerical model, followed by the selection of a three coupe system as the fundamental unit of the locomotive compartment. Heat Release Rate Per Unit Area (HRRPUA) of the initial fire is varied to consider a wide range of compartmental fires. Parameters, such as air inlet velocity relative to the locomotive at the windows, the level of interaction with the ambiance and closure of middle berth are studied through a wide range of numerical simulations. Almost all the loss of lives and properties due to fire breakout can be attributed to the direct or indirect exposure to flames or to the inhalation of toxic gases and resultant suffocation due to smoke and soot. Therefore, the temporal stature of fire and smoke are reported for each of the considered cases which can be used in the present or extended form to develop guidelines to be followed in case of a fire breakout.

Keywords: fire dynamics, flame propagation, locomotive fire, soot flow pattern, non-air-conditioned coaches

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Authors: A. Roukbi, B. Draoui

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Due to the high cost and the environmental problems caused by the conventional air-conditioning systems, various researches are being increasingly focused on thermal comfort in the building sector integrating renewable energy sources, particularly solar energy. For that purpose, this study aims to present a modeling and performance analysis of a direct air-cooled Water/LiBr absorption chiller. The chiller is considered to be coupled to a small residential building at an arid zone situated in south Algeria. The system is modeled with TRNSYS simulation program. The main objective is to study the feasibility of the chosen system in arid zones and to apply a simplified method to predict the performance of the system by mean of the characteristic equation approach tacking in account the influence of the climatic conditions of the considered site, the collector area and storage volume of the hot water tank on the performance of the installation. First, the results of the system modeling are compared with an experimental data from the open literature and the developed model is then validated. In another hand, a parametric study is performed to analyze the performance of the direct air-cooled absorption chiller at the operating conditions of interest for the present study. Thus, the obtained results has shown that the studied system can present a good alternative for cooling systems in arid zones since the cooling load is roughly in phase with solar availability.

Keywords: absorption chiller, air-cooled, arid zone, thermal comfort

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Authors: Jamilu Adamu

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Radical political activities among the people of Northern Nigeria and Sabon Birni, in particular from the formation of the Northern Element Progressive Union (NEPU) and Northern People Congress (NPC) in the last decade of colonial rule, led to the dramatic spread of radical ideas that were expressed through party politics. The above two parties were said to be more prominent in each of the movements throughout the period covered by this study. The NEPU and NPC were said to have opposed one another in an attempt to establish their political control in the area. What is apparent about the nature of the opposition is that the earlier NEPU and People Redemption Party (PRP) emerged from the idea of liberating the common man (Talakawa) against all forms of oppression, thereby rejecting a contrary idea of supporting the native elites and their colonial collaborators as envisaged in the ideology of the later NPC and National Party of Nigeria (NPN). This laid the ground for ideological confrontation between the supporters of the two opposing wings all over the northern emirates and the Sabon Birni district in particular. The study used a qualitative method of data collection. This study examines the historical developments of radical party politics among the Gobirawa people of the Sabon Birni District of Sokoto. It also investigates the factors that inspired opposition politics among the Gobirawa people of Sabon Birni. These were analyses side-by-side with the role of the traditional leaders in the area in suppressing the activities of the opposition party.

Keywords: NEPU, NPC, radical politics, Sabon-Birni District

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Authors: Mustafa Yıldız, Ali Ulvi Uzer, Murat Olgun

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In this study, geotechnical and mineralogical properties of gypsum containing clay basis which form the ground of Second Organized Industrial Zone in Konya province have been researched through comprehensive field and laboratory experiments. Although sufficient geotechnical research has not been performed yet, an intensive structuring in the region continues at present. The study area consists of mid-lake sediments formed by gypsum containing soft silt-clay basis which evolves to a large area. To determine the soil profile and geotechnical specifications; 18 drilling holes were opened and disturbed / undisturbed soil samples have been taken through shelby tubes within 1.5m intervals. Tests have been performed on these samples to designate the index and strength properties of soil. Besides, at all drilling holes Standart Penetration Tests have been done within 1.5m intervals. For the purpose of determining the mineralogical characteristics of the soil; all rock and X-RD analysis have been carried out on 6 samples which were taken from various depths through the soil profile. Strength and compressibility characteristics of the soil were defined with correlations using laboratory and field test results. Unconfined compressive strength, undrained cohesion, compression index varies between 16 kN/m2 and 405.4 kN/m2, 6.5 kN/m2 and 72 kN/m2, 0.066 and 0.864, respectively.

Keywords: Konya second organized industrial region, strength, compressibility, soft clay

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Authors: Neerja Gupta

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Objective-Reconstruction of large cavities of the breast without contralateral symmetrisation Background- Reconstruction of breast includes a wide spectrum of procedures from displacement to regional and distant flaps. The pedicled Perforator flaps cover a wide spectrum of reconstruction surgery for all quadrants of the breast, especially in patients with comorbidities. These axial flaps singly or adjunct are based on a near constant perforator vessel, a ratio of 2:1 at its entry in a flap is good to maintain vascularity. The perforators of lateral chest wall viz LICAP, LTAP have overlapping perfurosomes without clear demarcation. LTAP is localized in the narrow zone between the lateral breast fold and anterior axillary line,2.5-3.8cm from the fold. MICAP are localized at 1-2 cm from sternum. Being 1-2mm in diameter, a Single perforator is good to maintain the flap. LICAP has a dominant perforator in 6th-11th spaces, while LTAP has higher placed dominant perforators in 4th and 5th spaces. Methodology-Six consecutive patients who underwent reconstruction of the breast with pedicled perforator flaps were retrospectively analysed. Selections of the flap was done based on the size and locations of the tumour, anticipated volume loss, willingness to undergo contralateral symmetrisation, cosmetic expectations, and finances available.3 patients underwent vertical LTAP, the distal limit of the flap being the inframammary crease. 3 patients underwent MICAP, oriented along the axis of rib, the distal limit being the anterior axillary line. Preoperative identification was done using a unidirectional hand held doppler. The flap was raised caudal to cranial, the pivot point of rotation being the vessel entry into the skin. The donor area is determined by the skin pinch. Flap harvest time was 20-25 minutes. Intra operative vascularity was assessed with dermal bleed. The patient immediate pre, post-operative and follow up pics were compared independently by two breast surgeons. Patients were given a breast Q questionnaire (licensed) for scoring. Results-The median age of six patients was 46. Each patient had a hospital stay of 24 hours. None of the patients was willing for contralateral symmetrisation. The specimen dimensions were from 8x6.8x4 cm to 19x16x9 cm. The breast volume reconstructed range was 30 percent to 45 percent. All wide excision had free margins on frozen. The mean flap dimensions were 12x5x4.5 cm. One LTAP underwent marginal necrosis and delayed wound healing due to seroma. Three patients were phyllodes, of which one was borderline, and 2 were benign on final histopathology. All other 3 patients were invasive ductal cancer and have completed their radiation. The median follow up is 7 months the satisfaction scores at median follow of 7 months are 90 for physical wellbeing and 85 for surgical results. Surgeons scored fair to good in Harvard score. Conclusion- Pedicled perforator flaps are a valuable option for 3/8th volume of breast defects. LTAP is preferred for tumours at the Central, upper, and outer quadrants of the breast and MICAP for the inner and lower quadrant. The vascularity of the flap is dependent on the angiosomalterritories; adequate venous and cavity drainage.

Keywords: breast, oncoplasty, pedicled, perforator

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Authors: Laura Amato, Paolo Mulatti, Fabrizio Montarsi, Matteo Mazzucato, Laura Gagliazzo, Michele Brichese, Manlio Palei, Gioia Capelli, Lebana Bonfanti

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West Nile virus (WNV) re-emerged in north-eastern Italy in 2008, after ten years from its first appearance in Tuscany. In 2009, a national surveillance programme was implemented, and re-modulated in north-eastern Italy in 2011. Hereby, we present the results of surveillance activities in 2008-2016 in the north-eastern Italian regions, with inferences on WNV epidemiological trend in the area. The re-modulated surveillance programmes aimed at early detecting WNV seasonal reactivation by searching IgM antibodies in horses. In 2013, the surveillance plans were further modified including a risk-based approach. Spatial analysis techniques, including Bernoulli space-time scan-statistics, were applied to the results of 2010–2012 surveillance on mosquitoes, equines, and humans to identify areas where WNV reactivation was more likely to occur. From 2008 to 2016, residential horses tested positive for anti-WNV antibodies on a yearly basis (503 cases), also in areas where WNV circulation was not detected in mosquito populations. Surveillance activities detected 26 syndromic cases in horses, 102 infected mosquito pools and WNV in 18 dead wild birds. Human cases were also recurrently detected in the study area during the surveillance period (68 cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease). The recurrent identification of WNV in animals, mosquitoes, and humans indicates the virus has likely become endemic in the area. In 2016, findings of WNV positives in horses or mosquitoes were included as triggers for enhancing screening activities in humans. The evolution of the epidemiological situation prompts for continuous and accurate surveillance measures. The results of the 2013-2016 surveillance indicate that the risk-based approach was effective in early detecting seasonal reactivation of WNV, key factor of the integrated surveillance strategy in endemic areas.

Keywords: arboviruses, horses, Italy, surveillance, west nile virus, zoonoses

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Authors: K. Shaji Mon, P. R. John Sreenidhi

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In deep-submicrometer CMOS processes, time-domain resolution of a digital signal is becoming higher than voltage resolution of analog signals. This claim is nowadays pushing toward a new circuit design paradigm in which the traditional analog signal processing is expected to be progressively substituted by the processing of times in the digital domain. Within this novel paradigm, digitally controlled delay lines (DCDL) should play the role of digital-to-analog converters in traditional, analog-intensive, circuits. Digital delay locked loops are highly prevalent in integrated systems.The proposed paper addresses the glitches present in delay circuits along with area,power dissipation and signal integrity.The digitally controlled delay lines(DCDL) under study have been designed in a 90 nm CMOS technology 6 layer metal Copper Strained SiGe Low K Dielectric. Simulation and synthesis results show that the novel circuits exhibit no glitches for dual output coarse DCDL with less power dissipation and consumes less area compared to the glitch free NAND based DCDL.

Keywords: glitch free, NAND-based DCDL, CMOS, deep-submicrometer

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Authors: M. T. Z. Butt, T. Ahmad, N. A. Siddiqui

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Commercially SA 516 Grade 70 is frequently used for the manufacturing of pressure vessels, boilers and storage tanks etc. in fabrication industry. Heat input is the major parameter during welding that may bring significant changes in the microstructure as well as the mechanical properties. Different welding technique has different heat input rate per unit surface area. Materials with large thickness are dealt with different combination of welding techniques to achieve required mechanical properties. In the present research two schemes: Scheme 1: SMAW (Shielded Metal Arc Welding) & GTAW (Gas Tungsten Arc Welding) and Scheme 2: SMAW & SAW (Submerged Arc Welding) of hybrid welding techniques have been studied. The purpose of these schemes was to study hybrid welding effect on the microstructure and mechanical properties of the weldment, heat affected zone and base metal area. It is significant to note that the thickness of base plate was 12 mm, also welding conditions and parameters were set according to ASME Section IX. It was observed that two different hybrid welding techniques performed on two different plates demonstrated that the mechanical properties of both schemes are more or less similar. It means that the heat input, welding techniques and varying welding operating conditions & temperatures did not make any detrimental effect on the mechanical properties. Hence, the hybrid welding techniques mentioned in the present study are favorable to implicate for the industry using the plate thickness around 12 mm thick.

Keywords: grade 70, GTAW, hybrid welding, SAW, SMAW

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Authors: Kimuli Ismail, Michael Lubwama, John Baptist Kirabira, Adam Sebbit

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This study develops 4 energy scenarios for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). GKMA is Uganda’s capital with a population of 4.1million and a GDP growth rate of 5.8 with a nonsustainable energy management system. The study uses TIMES-VEDA to examine the energy impacts of business as usual (BAU), Kabejja, Carbon-Tax, and Lutta scenarios in commercial, industrial, transportation, residential, agricultural, and electricity generation activities. BAU is the baseline scenario with limited CO2 emissions restrictions against which Kabejja with 20% CO2 emissions restriction, a carbon tax of $100/ton imposed in 2050 for Carbon-Tax scenario, and Lutta with 95% CO2 emissions restriction is made. The analysis suggests that if the current policy trends continue as BAU, consumption would increase from 139.6PJ to 497.42PJ and CO2 emissions will increase from 4.6mtns to 7mtns. However, consumption would decrease by 2.3% in Kabejja, 3.4% in Carbon-Tax, and 3.3 % in Lutta compared to BAU. The CO2 emissions would decrease by 8.57% in Kabejja, 55.14% in Carbon-Tax, and 60% in Lutta compared to BAU. Sustainability is achievable when low-carbon electricity is increased by 53.68% in the EMS, and setting up an electrified Kampala metro. The study recommends Lutta as the sustainable pathway to a lowcarbon 2050.

Keywords: Sustainability, Scenario Plannnig, Times-Veda Modelling, Energy Policy Development

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Authors: Fatma Mohamed Magdy Badr El Dine, Amr Mohamed Abd Allah

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Introduction: Age estimation of individuals is one of the crucial steps in forensic practice. Different traditional methods rely on the length of the diaphysis of long bones of limbs, epiphyseal-diaphyseal union, fusion of the primary ossification centers as well as dental eruption. However, there is a growing need for the development of precise and reliable methods to estimate age, especially in cases where dismembered corpses, burnt bodies, purified or fragmented parts are recovered. Teeth are the hardest and indestructible structure in the human body. In recent years, assessment of pulp/tooth area ratio, as an indirect quantification of secondary dentine deposition has received a considerable attention. However, scanty work has been done in Egypt in terms of applicability of pulp/tooth ratio for age estimation. Aim of the Work: The present work was designed to assess the Cameriere’s method for age estimation from pulp/tooth ratio of maxillary canines, central and lateral incisors among a sample from Egyptian population. In addition, to formulate regression equations to be used as population-based standards for age determination. Material and Methods: The present study was conducted on 270 peri-apical X-rays of maxillary canines, central and lateral incisors (collected from 131 males and 139 females aged between 19 and 52 years). The pulp and tooth areas were measured using the Adobe Photoshop software program and the pulp/tooth area ratio was computed. Linear regression equations were determined separately for canines, central and lateral incisors. Results: A significant correlation was recorded between the pulp/tooth area ratio and the chronological age. The linear regression analysis revealed a coefficient of determination (R² = 0.824 for canine, 0.588 for central incisor and 0.737 for lateral incisor teeth). Three regression equations were derived. Conclusion: As a conclusion, the pulp/tooth ratio is a useful technique for estimating age among Egyptians. Additionally, the regression equation derived from canines gave better result than the incisors.

Keywords: age determination, canines, central incisors, Egypt, lateral incisors, pulp/tooth ratio

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Authors: Allan F. F. Alves, Fernando A. Bacchim Neto, Guilherme Giacomini, Marcela de Oliveira, Ana L. M. Pavan, Maria E. D. Rosa, Diana R. Pina

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Stroke is a worldwide concern, only in Brazil it accounts for 10% of all registered deaths. There are 2 stroke types, ischemic (87%) and hemorrhagic (13%). Early diagnosis is essential to avoid irreversible cerebral damage. Non-enhanced computed tomography (NECT) is one of the main diagnostic techniques used due to its wide availability and rapid diagnosis. Detection depends on the size and severity of lesions and the time spent between the first symptoms and examination. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) is a subjective method that increases the detection rate. The aim of this work was to implement an image segmentation system to enhance ischemic stroke and to quantify the area of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke lesions in CT scans. We evaluated 10 patients with NECT examinations diagnosed with ischemic stroke. Analyzes were performed in two axial slices, one at the level of the thalamus and basal ganglion and one adjacent to the top edge of the ganglionic structures with window width between 80 and 100 Hounsfield Units. We used different image processing techniques such as morphological filters, discrete wavelet transform and Fuzzy C-means clustering. Subjective analyzes were performed by a neuroradiologist according to the ASPECTS scale to quantify ischemic areas in the middle cerebral artery region. These subjective analysis results were compared with objective analyzes performed by the computational algorithm. Preliminary results indicate that the morphological filters actually improve the ischemic areas for subjective evaluations. The comparison in area of the ischemic region contoured by the neuroradiologist and the defined area by computational algorithm showed no deviations greater than 12% in any of the 10 examination tests. Although there is a tendency that the areas contoured by the neuroradiologist are smaller than those obtained by the algorithm. These results show the importance of a computer aided diagnosis software to assist neuroradiology decisions, especially in critical situations as the choice of treatment for ischemic stroke.

Keywords: ischemic stroke, image processing, CT scans, Fuzzy C-means

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Authors: Ammar Manaa

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The late Pleistocene raised coral reef terraces, 1 to 5 m above present sea level, are distinguished in Rabigh area into two marine terraces at elevations 0.5 m and 3.20 m, in addition to back-reef facies. The lower and upper terraces consist mainly of corals that increased in abundance and distribution in the upper terrace, with a minor occurrence of detrital quartz and feldspar. The back-reef facies consist mainly of coralline algae with a minor occurrence of corals. The upper terrace was interpreted as a reef crest or algal ridge due to the dominance of bindstone facies. The lower terrace indicates an outer reef flat with the occurrence of grainstone and rudstone facies. The coral framework in the upper terrace indicates a low energy environment. Within the back-reef terrace, calcareous mud was dominant, which indicates low energy, lagoon environment. The XRD results for the studied terraces revealed a variable abundance of aragonite, high-Mg calcite, and low-Mg calcite, with a slight increase in calcite and high-Mg calcite in the upper terrace. The dominant diagenetic processes in the terraces are cementation by fibrous and blocky calcite and dissolution that varied slightly between the lower and upper terraces. This study provides a coral reef model relevant to a low energy system in a dry and hot environment.

Keywords: late Pleistocene, Rabigh, reef terraces, Red Sea, Saudi Arabia.

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Authors: Uzma Ahmad

Abstract:

hyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) is the most turbulent province of Pakistan, sharing a longborder with Afghanistan. For about four decades, KPK is facing a series of international events. The peak was reached after 9/11when region was labelled as posing a major theatre of militancy and terrorism which was intensified when Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP) began attempts to seize the authority of state. One of the main focus of TTP was to damage and uprooting of female education system and infrastructure in KPK which later became the site of a massacre of school children of Army Public School Peshawar on 16 December 2014.It resulted to the launching of Zarb-e-Azb against the TTP insurgency,casualty and crime rates in the KPKas a whole dropped by 40.0% as compared to 2011–13. All this has badly hampered the female education both in terms of quantity and quality. Malala Yousafzai who is now an advocate of female education has been a victim of Talibans brutality in that area. And thelanguage in which she managed to express herself to the International community is English.Keeping in view the situation, the present project was designed with a sole aim to focus on female students of the area which are few in numbers and to investigate some specific area, where they have been confronting problems in the use of grammar, vocabulary,tenses and organization of ideas in writings. The reasons might be the careless attitude, insufficient reading habits, lack of interest and poor knowledge of English language. The methodology was a descriptive one as it shows the effects of the internal efficiency(independent variables) on an intermediate college’s progress(dependent variables). It was a case study since data was collected from a focused group of 60 female students of arts and humanities at Swabi college at Intermediate level. The ultimate focus was to explore the possibilities of creating a Gender friendly environment for female students. This research has proved how the correct use of English language has given them confidence to move ahead side by side with men and to acknowledge their right of self-determination.

Keywords: capacity building, female education, gender friendly, internal efficiency

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Authors: Muhammad Tarmidzi, Reza M. G. Gani, Andri Luthfi

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to identify rock zone containing hydrocarbons with calculating rock property includes volume shale, total porosity, effective porosity and water saturation. Identification method rock property based on GR log, resistivity log, neutron log and density rock. Zoning is based on sequence stratigraphic markers that are sequence boundary (SB), transgressive surface (TS) and flooding surface (FS) which correlating ten well log in blok “M”. The results of sequence stratigraphic correlation consist of eight zone that are two LST zone, three TST zone and three HST zone. The result of rock property calculation in each zone is showing two LST zone containing hydrocarbons. LST-1 zone has average volume shale (Vsh) 25%, average total porosity (PHIT) 14%, average effective porosity (PHIE) 11% and average water saturation 0,83. LST-2 zone has average volume shale (Vsh) 19%, average total porosity (PHIT) 21%, average effective porosity (PHIE) 17% and average water saturation 0,82.

Keywords: hydrocarbons zone, petrophysic, rock property, sequence stratigraphic

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Authors: Ahmad E. Aldousaria, Abdulla Al Kafy

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Urbanization is an incessant process that involves the transformation of land use/land cover (LULC), resulting in a reduction of cool land covers and thermal comfort zones (TCZs). This study explores the directional shrinkage of TCZs in Kuwait using Landsat satellite data from 1991 – 2021 to predict the future LULC and TCZ distribution for 2026 and 2031 using cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms. Analysis revealed a rapid urban expansion (40 %) in SE, NE, and NW directions and TCZ shrinkage in N – NW and SW directions with 25 % of the very uncomfortable area. The predicted result showed an urban area increase from 44 % in 2021 to 47 % and 52 % in 2026 and 2031, respectively, where uncomfortable zones were found to be concentrated around urban areas and bare lands in N – NE and N – NW directions. This study proposes an effective and sustainable framework to control TCZ shrinkage, including zero soil policies, planned landscape design, manmade water bodies, and rooftop gardens. This study will help urban planners and policymakers to make Kuwait an eco–friendly, functional, and sustainable country.

Keywords: land cover change, thermal environment, green cover loss, machine learning, remote sensing

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Authors: S. H. Atef, N. H. Mahmoud, S. Abdrahman, A. Fattoh

Abstract:

Background: The aim of the study is to assess the diagnostic value of fibrotest and hyaluronic acid in discriminate between insignificant and significant fibrosis. Also, to find out if these parameters could replace liver biopsy which is currently used for selection of chronic hepatitis C patients eligible for antiviral therapy. Study design: This study was conducted on 52 patients with HCV RNA detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) who had undergone liver biopsy and attending the internal medicine clinic at Ain Shams University Hospital. Liver fibrosis was evaluated according to the METAVIR scoring system on a scale of F0 to F4. Biochemical markers assessed were: alpha-2 macroglobulin (α2-MG), apolipoprotein A1 (Apo-A1), haptoglobin, gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), total bilirubin (TB) and hyaluronic acid (HA). The fibrotest score was computed after adjusting for age and gender. Predictive values and ROC curves were used to assess the accuracy of fibrotest and HA results. Results: For fibrotest, the observed area under curve for the discrimination between minimal or no fibrosis (F0-F1) and significant fibrosis (F2-F4) was 0.6736 for cutoff value 0.19 with sensitivity of 84.2% and specificity of 85.7%. For HA, the sensitivity was 89.5% and specificity was 85.7% and area under curve was 0.540 at the best cutoff value 71 mg/dL. Multi-use of both parameters, HA at 71 mg/dL with fibrotest score at 0.22 give a sensitivity 89.5%, specificity 100 and efficacy 92.3% (AUC 0.895). Conclusion: The use of both fibrotest score and HA could be as alternative to biopsy in most patients with chronic hepaitis C putting in consideration some limitations of the proposed markers in evaluating liver fibrosis.

Keywords: fibrotest, liver fibrosis, HCV RNA, biochemical markers

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Authors: Chao Yang, Jinchuan Zhang, Yongqiang Xiong

Abstract:

The Lower Cambrian Niutitang Formation shale (NFS) deposited in the marine deep-shelf environment in Southeast Upper Yangtze (SUY), possess excellent source rock basis for shale gas generation, however, it is currently challenged by being over-mature with strong tectonic deformations, leading to much uncertainty of gas-bearing potential. With emphasis on the shale gas enrichment of the NFS, analyses were made based on the regional gas-bearing differences obtained from field gas-desorption testing of 18 geological survey wells across the study area. Results show that the NFS bears low gas content of 0.2-2.5 m³/t, and the eastern region of SUY is higher than the western region in gas content. Moreover, the methane fraction also presents the similar regional differentiation with the western region less than 10 vol.% while the eastern region generally more than 70 vol.%. Through the analysis of geological theory, the following conclusions are drawn: Depositional environment determines the gas-enriching zones. In the western region, the Dengying Formation underlying the NFS in unconformity contact was mainly plateau facies dolomite with caves and thereby bears poor gas-sealing ability. Whereas the Laobao Formation underling the NFS in eastern region was a set of siliceous rocks of shelf-slope facies, which can effectively prevent the shale gas from escaping away from the NFS. The tectonic conditions control the gas-enriching bands in the SUY, which is located in the fold zones formed by the thrust of the Southern China plate towards to the Sichuan Basin. Compared with the western region located in the trough-like folds, the eastern region at the fold-thrust belts was uplifted early and deformed weakly, resulting in the relatively less mature level and relatively slight tectonic deformation of the NFS. Faults determine whether shale gas can be accumulated in large scale. Four deep and large normal faults in the study area cut through the Niutitang Formation to the Sinian strata, directly causing a large spillover of natural gas in the adjacent areas. For the secondary faults developed within the shale formation, the reverse faults generally have a positive influence on the shale accumulation while the normal faults perform the opposite influence. Overall, shale gas enrichment targets of the NFS, are the areas with certain thickness of siliceous rocks at the basement of the Niutitang Formation, and near the margin of the paleouplift with less developed faults. These findings provide direction for shale gas exploration in South China, and also provide references for the areas with similar geological conditions all over the world.

Keywords: over-mature marine shale, shale gas accumulation, structure-complicated area, Southeast Upper Yangtze

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Authors: Agim Kukelii, Gevorg Sargsyan

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This study, focusing on the base regional area (county level), estimates the effect of natural disaster damages on aggregate personal income, aggregate wages, wages per worker, aggregate employment, and aggregate income transfer. The study further estimates the dynamics of personal income, employment, and wages under natural disaster shocks. Southeast Texas, located at the center of Golf Coast, is hit by meteorological and hydrological caused natural disasters yearly. On average, there are more than four natural disasters per year that cane an estimated damage average of 2.2% of real personal income. The study uses the panel data method to estimate the average effect of natural disasters on the area’s economy (personal income, wages, employment, and income transfer). It also uses Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model to study the dynamics of macroeconomic variables under natural disaster shocks. The study finds that the average effect of natural disasters is positive for personal income and income transfer and is negative for wages and employment. The PVAR and the impulse response function estimates reveal that natural disaster shocks cause a decrease in personal income, employment, and wages. However, the economy’s variables bounce back after three years. The novelty of this study rests on several aspects. First, this is the first study to investigate the effects of natural disasters on macroeconomic variables at a regional level. Second, the study uses direct measures of natural disaster damages. Third, the study estimates that the time that the local economy takes to absorb the natural disaster damages shocks is three years. This is a relatively good reaction to the local economy, therefore, adding to the “resiliency” hypothesis. The study has several implications for policymakers, businesses, and households. First, this study serves to increase the awareness of local stakeholders that natural disaster damages do worsen, macroeconomic variables, such as personal income, employment, and wages beyond the immediate damages to residential and commercial properties, physical infrastructure, and discomfort in daily lives. Second, the study estimates that these effects linger on the economy on average for three years, which would require policymakers to factor in the time area need to be on focus.

Keywords: natural disaster damages, macroeconomics effects, PVAR, panel data

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Authors: Enrique González Pendás, Vidal Pérez Hernández, Jorge Ferro Díaz, Nelson Careaga Pendás

Abstract:

The investigation is carried out on the Protected Area of San Ubaldo, toward the interior of an open pinegrove with palm trees in a dry plainness of quar zitic sands, belonging to the Floristic Managed Reservation San Ubaldo-Sabanalamar, Guane, Pinar del Río, Cuba. This area is characterized by drastic seasonal variations, high temperatures and water evaporation, strong solar radiation, with sandy soils of almost pure quartz, which are very acid and poor in nutrients. The objective of the present work is to determine evidence of facilitation and its relationship with the structure and composition of plant communities in these peculiar ecosystems. For this study six lineal parallel transepts of 100 m are traced, in those, a general recording of the flora is carried out. To establish which plants act as nurses, is taken into account a height over 1 meter, canopy over 1.5 meter and the occurrence of several species under it. Covering was recorded using the line intercept method; the medium values of species richness for the taxa under nurses is compared with those that are located in open spaces among them. Then, it is determined which plants are better recruiter of other species (better nurses). An experiment is made to measure and compare some parameters in pine seedlings under the canopy of the Byrsonima crassifolia (L.) Kunth. and in open spaces, also the number of individuals is counted by species to calculate the frequency and total abundance in the study area. As a result, it is offered an up-to-date floristic list, a phylogenetic tree of the plant community showing a high phylodiversity, it is proven that the medium values of species richness and abundance of species under the nurses, is significantly superior to those occurring in open spaces. Furthermore, by means of phylogenetic trees it is shown that the species which cohabit under the nurses are not phylogenetically related. The former results are cited evidences of facilitation among plants, as well as it is one more time shown the importance of the nurse effect in preserving plant diversity on extreme environments.

Keywords: facilitation, nurse plants, positive interactions, quarzitic sands

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Authors: Ruan Yi-Chen, Li Wang-Ming, Fang Yuan

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With the rapid growth of urbanization in China in recent years, public services are in short supply because of expanding population and limitation of financial support, which makes delicate configuration of public service facilities to become a trend in urban planning. Besides, the facility configuration standard implemented in China is equal to the whole the urban area without considering internal differences in it. Therefore, this article focuses on population Spatial disparities analysis in order to optimize facility configuration in communities of main city district. The used data, including population of 93 communities during 2010 to 2015, comes from GongShu district, Hangzhou city, PRC. Through the analysis of population data, especially the age structure of those communities, the communities finally divided into 3 types. Obviously, urban public service facilities allocation situation directly affect the quality of residents common lives, which turns out that deferent kinds of communities with deferent groups of citizens will have divergences in facility demanding. So in the end of the article, strategies of facility configuration will be proposed based on the population analysis in order to optimize the quantity and location of facilities with delicacy.

Keywords: delicacy, facility configuration, population spatial disparities, urban area

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Authors: Thimma Reddy Pothireddy, Ramesh Srikonda

Abstract:

India is prone to natural disasters such as Floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes and landslides frequently due to its geographical considerations. It has become a persistent phenomenon as observed in last ten decades. The recent survey indicates that about 60% of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of various intensities with reference to Richard scale, over 40 million hectares is prone to floods; about 8% of the total area is prone to cyclones and 68% of the area is vulnerable to drought. Climate change is likely to be perceived through the experience of extreme weather events. There is growing societal concern about climate change, given the potential impacts of associated natural hazards such as cyclones, flooding, earthquakes, landslides etc. The recent natural calamities such as Cyclone Hudhud had crossed the land at Northern cost of AP, Vishakapatanam on 12 Oct’2014 with a wind speed ranging between 175 – 200 kmph and the records show that the tidal waves were reached to the height of 14mts and above; and it alarms us to have critical focus on planning issues so as to find appropriate solutions. The existing condition is effective is in terms of institutional set up along with responsive management mechanism of disaster mitigation but considerations at settlement planning level to allow mitigation operations are not adequate. This paper deals to understand the response to climate change will possibly happen through adaptation to climate hazards and essential to work out an appropriate mechanism and disaster receptive settlement planning for responding to natural (and climate-related) calamities particularly to cyclones and floods. The statistics indicate that 40 million hectares flood prone (5% of area), and 1853 kmts of cyclone prone coastal length in India so it is essential and crucial to have appropriate physical planning considerations to improve preparedness and to operate mitigation measures effectively to minimize the loss and damage. Vijayawada capital region which is susceptible to cyclonic and floods has been studied with respect to trajectory analysis to work out risk vulnerability and to integrated disaster mitigation physical planning considerations.

Keywords: meta analysis, vulnerability index, physical planning, trajectories

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Authors: Champika S. Kariyawasam

Abstract:

The distribution of gorse (Ulex europaeus) plants in South Australia has been modelled using 126 presence-only location data as a function of seven climate parameters. The predicted range of U. europaeus is mainly along the Mount Lofty Ranges in the Adelaide Hills and on Kangaroo Island. Annual precipitation and yearly average aridity index appeared to be the highest contributing variables to the final model formulation. The Jackknife procedure was employed to identify the contribution of different variables to gorse model outputs and response curves were used to predict changes with changing environmental variables. Based on this analysis, it was revealed that the combined effect of one or more variables could make a completely different impact to the original variables on their own to the model prediction. This work also demonstrates the need for a careful approach when selecting environmental variables for projecting correlative models to climatically distinct area. Maxent acts as a robust model when projecting the fitted species distribution model to another area with changing climatic conditions, whereas the generalized linear model, bioclim, and domain models to be less robust in this regard. These findings are important not only for predicting and managing invasive alien gorse in South Australia and Sri Lanka but also in other countries of the invasive range.

Keywords: invasive species, Maxent, species distribution modelling, Ulex europaeus

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