Search results for: southern high plains
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 20698

Search results for: southern high plains

20548 Juvenile Fish Associated with Pondweed and Charophyte Habitat: A Case Study Using Upgraded Pop-up Net in the Estuarine Part of the Curonian Lagoon

Authors: M. Bučas, A. Skersonas, E. Ivanauskas, J. Lesutienė, N. Nika, G. Srėbalienė, E. Tiškus, J. Gintauskas, A.Šaškov, G. Martin

Abstract:

Submerged vegetation enhances heterogeneity of sublittoral habitats; therefore, macrophyte stands are essential elements of aquatic ecosystems to maintain a diverse fish fauna. Fish-habitat relations have been extensively studied in streams and coastal waters, but in lakes and estuaries are still underestimated. The aim of this study is to assess temporal (diurnal and seasonal) patterns of fish juvenile assemblages associated with common submerged macrophyte habitats, which have significantly spread during the recent decade in the upper littoral part of the Curonian Lagoon. The assessment was performed by means of an upgraded pop-up net approach resulting in much precise sampling versus other techniques. The optimal number of samples (i.e., pop-up nets) required to cover>80% of the total number of fish species depended on the time of the day in both study sites: at least 7and 9 nets in the evening (18-24 pm) in the Southern and Northern study sites, respectively. In total, 14 fish species were recorded, where perch and roach dominated (respectively 48% and 24%). From multivariate analysis, water salinity and seasonality (temperature or sampling month) were primary factors determining fish assemblage composition. The southern littoral area, less affected by brackish water conditions, hosted a higher number of species (13) than in the Northern site (8). In the latter site, brackish water tolerant species (three-spined and nine-spined sticklebacks, spiny loach, roach, and round goby) were more abundant than in the Southern site. Perch and ruffe dominated in the Southern site. Spiny loach and nine-spined stickleback were more frequent in September, while ruffe, perch, and roach occurred more in July. The diel dynamics of the common species such as perch, roach, and ruffe followed the general pattern, but it was species specific and depended on the study site, habitat, and month. The species composition between macrophyte habitats did not significantly differ; however, it differed from the results obtained in 2005 at both study sites indicating the importance of expanded charophyte stands during the last decade in the littoral zone.

Keywords: diel dynamics, charophytes, pondweeds, herbivorous and benthivorous fishes, littoral, nursery habitat, shelter

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20547 Assessment the Tsunamis Impact with Tectonic Sources in the Southern Mainland of the Haitian Republic: Using Two Numerical Models

Authors: Delva Richard, Zahibo Narcisse, Yalciner Ahmet

Abstract:

The Republic of Haiti is one of the poor countries of the world, therefore the authorities must make choices to provide timely solutions to the many difficulties that this Caribbean country is experiencing. There is a very acute lack of scientific research to study natural phenomena in depth. A working group meeting was established under the aegis of the World Bank, UNESCO and the authorities, to study the level of exposure of the Hispaniola. The devastating earthquake of August 2021 killed about 2100 and caused massive material damage; and the 14 12 January 2010 killed more than 250,000 people and caused massive material damage, the evidence of which is still 11 years later. In this paper we want to contribute to the assessment of the risk of tsunami on the southern peninsula of the Republic of Haiti. For the realization of this work we have the bathymetric and topographic data of very good qualities from the private measurement campaigns that we have combined with GEBCO for the inundation grids. We use two numerical models MOST and NAMI DANCE for the calculation of the parameters required in any tsunami risk assessment.

Keywords: modélisation numérique, ondes longues océaniques, bathymetrie, evaluation risque, tsunamis

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20546 Hydro Geochemistry and Water Quality in a River Affected by Lead Mining in Southern Spain

Authors: Rosendo Mendoza, María Carmen Hidalgo, María José Campos-Suñol, Julián Martínez, Javier Rey

Abstract:

The impact of mining environmental liabilities and mine drainage on surface water quality has been investigated in the hydrographic basin of the La Carolina mining district (southern Spain). This abandoned mining district is characterized by the existence of important mineralizations of sulfoantimonides of Pb - Ag, and sulfides of Cu - Fe. All surface waters reach the main river of this mining area, the Grande River, which ends its course in the Rumblar reservoir. This waterbody is intended to supply 89,000 inhabitants, as well as irrigation and livestock. Therefore, the analysis and control of the metal(loid) concentration that exists in these surface waters is an important issue because of the potential pollution derived from metallic mining. A hydrogeochemical campaign consisting of 20 water sampling points was carried out in the hydrographic network of the Grande River, as well as two sampling points in the Rumbler reservoir and at the main tailings impoundment draining to the river. Although acid mine drainage (pH below 4) is discharged into the Grande river from some mine adits, the pH values in the river water are always neutral or slightly alkaline. This is mainly the result of a dilution process of the small volumes of mine waters by net alkaline waters of the river. However, during the dry season, the surface waters present high mineralization due to a constant discharge from the abandoned flooded mines and a decrease in the contribution of surface runoff. The concentrations of dissolved Cd and Pb in the water reach values of 2 and 81 µg/l, respectively, exceeding the limit established by the Environmental Quality Standard for surface water. In addition, the concentrations of dissolved As, Cu, and Pb in the waters of the Rumblar reservoir reached values of 10, 20, and 11 µg/l, respectively. These values are higher than the maximum allowable concentration for human consumption, a circumstance that is especially alarming.

Keywords: environmental quality, hydrogeochemistry, metal mining, surface water

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20545 Sedimentation and Morphology of the Kura River-Deltaic System in the Southern Caucasus under Anthropogenic and Sea-Level Controls

Authors: Elmira Aliyeva, Dadash Huseynov, Robert Hoogendoorn, Salomon Kroonenberg

Abstract:

The Kura River is the major water artery in the Southern Caucasus; it is a third river in the Caspian Sea basin in terms of length and size of the catchment area, the second in terms of the water budget, and the first in the volume of sediment load. Understanding of major controls on the Kura fluvial- deltaic system is valuable for efficient management of the highly populated river basin and coastal zone. We have studied grain size of sediments accumulated in the river channels and delta and dated by 210Pb method, astrophotographs, old topographic and geological maps, and archive data. At present time sediments are supplied by the Kura River to the Caspian Sea through three distributary channels oriented north-east, south-east, and south-west. The river is dominated by the suspended load - mud, silt, very fine sand. Coarse sediments are accumulated in the distributaries, levees, point bar, and delta front. The annual suspended sediment budget in the time period 1934-1952 before construction of the Mingechavir water reservoir in 1953 in the Kura River midstream area was 36 mln.t/yr. From 1953 to 1964, the suspended load has dropped to 12 mln.t/yr. After regulation of the Kura River discharge the volume of suspended load transported via north-eastern channel reduced from 35% of the total sediment amount to 4%, and through the main south-eastern channel increased from 65% to 96% with further fall to 56% due to creation of new south-western channel in 1964. Between 1967-1976 the annual sediment budget of the Kura River reached 22,5 mln. t/yr. From 1977 to 1986, the sediment load carried by the Kura River dropped to 17,6 mln.t/yr. The historical data show that between 1860 and 1907, during relatively stable Caspian Sea level two channels - N and SE, appear to have distributed an equal amount of sediments as seen from the bilateral geometry of the delta. In the time period 1907-1929, two new channels - E and NE, appeared. The growth of three delta lobes - N, NE, and SE, and rapid progradation of the delta has occurred on the background of the Caspian Sea level rise as a result of very high sediment supply. Since 1929 the Caspian Sea level decline was followed by the progradation of the delta occurring along the SE channel. The eastern and northern channels have been silted up. The slow rate of progradation at its initial stage was caused by the artificial reduction in the sediment budget. However, the continuous sea-level fall has brought to this river bed gradient increase, high erosional rate, increase in the sediment supply, and more rapid progradation. During the subsequent sea-level rise after 1977 accompanied by the decrease in the sediment budget, the southern part of the delta has turned into a complex of small, shallow channels oriented to the south. The data demonstrate that behaviour of the Kura fluvial – deltaic system and variations in the sediment budget besides anthropogenic regulation are strongly governed by the Caspian Sea level very rapid changes.

Keywords: anthropogenic control on sediment budget, Caspian sea-level variations, Kura river sediment load, morphology of the Kura river delta, sedimentation in the Kura river delta

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20544 Imported Oil Logistics to Central and Southern Europe Refineries

Authors: Vladimir Klepikov

Abstract:

Countries of Central and Southern Europe have a typical feature: oil consumption in the region exceeds own commodity production capacity by far. So crude oil import prevails in the region’s crude oil consumption structure. Transportation using marine and pipeline transport is a common method of the imported oil delivery in the region. For certain refineries, in addition to possible transportation by oil pipelines from seaports, oil is delivered from Russian oil fields. With the view to these specific features and geographic location of the region’s refineries, three ways of imported oil delivery can be singled out: oil delivery by tankers to the port and subsequent transportation by pipeline transport of the port and the refinery; oil delivery by tanker fleet to the port and subsequent transportation by oil trunk pipeline transport; oil delivery from the fields by oil trunk pipelines to refineries. Oil is also delivered by road, internal water, and rail transport. However, the volumes transported this way are negligible in comparison to the three above transportation means. Multimodal oil transportation to refineries using the pipeline and marine transport is one of the biggest cargo flows worldwide. However, in scientific publications this problem is considered mainly for certain modes of transport. Therefore, this study is topical. To elaborate an efficient transportation policy of crude oil supply to Central and Southern Europe, in this paper the geographic concentration of oil refineries was determined and the capacities of the region’s refineries were assessed. The quantitative analysis method is used as a tool. The port infrastructure and the oil trunk pipeline system capacity were assessed in terms of delivery of raw materials to the refineries. The main groups of oil consuming countries were determined. The trends of crude oil production in the region were reviewed. The changes in production capacities and volumes at refineries in the last decade were shown. Based on the revealed refining trends, the scope of possible crude oil supplies to the refineries of the region under review was forecast. The existing transport infrastructure is able to handle the increased oil flow.

Keywords: European region, infrastructure, oil terminal capacity, pipeline capacity, refinery capacity, tanker draft

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20543 Genetic Structuring of Four Tectona grandis L. F. Seed Production Areas in Southern India

Authors: P. M. Sreekanth

Abstract:

Teak (Tectona grandis L. f.) is a tree species indigenous to India and other Southeastern countries. It produces high-value timber and is easily established in plantations. Reforestation requires a constant supply of high quality seeds. Seed Production Areas (SPA) of teak are improved stands used for collection of open-pollinated quality seeds in large quantities. Information on the genetic diversity of major teak SPAs in India is scanty. The genetic structure of four important seed production areas of Kerala State in Southern India was analyzed employing amplified fragment length polymorphism markers using ten selective primer combinations on 80 samples (4 populations X 20 trees). The study revealed that the gene diversity of the SPAs varied from 0.169 (Konni SPA) to 0.203 (Wayanad SPA). The percentage of polymorphic loci ranged from 74.42 (Parambikulam SPA) to 84.06 (Konni SPA). The mean total gene diversity index (HT) of all the four SPAs was 0.2296 ±0.02. A high proportion of genetic diversity was observed within the populations (83%) while diversity between populations was lower (17%) (GST = 0.17). Principal coordinate analysis and STRUCTURE analysis of the genotypes indicated that the pattern of clustering was in accordance with the origin and geographic location of SPAs, indicating specific identity of each population. A UPGMA dendrogram was prepared and showed that all the twenty samples from each of Konni and Parambikulam SPAs clustered into two separate groups, respectively. However, five Nilambur genotypes and one Wayanad genotype intruded into the Konni cluster. The higher gene flow estimated (Nm = 2.4) reflected the inclusion of Konni origin planting stock in the Nilambur and Wayanad plantations. Evidence for population structure investigated using 3D Principal Coordinate Analysis of FAMD software 1.30 indicated that the pattern of clustering was in accordance with the origin of SPAs. The present study showed that assessment of genetic diversity in seed production plantations can be achieved using AFLP markers. The AFLP fingerprinting was also capable of identifying the geographical origin of planting stock and there by revealing the occurrence of the errors in genotype labeling. Molecular marker-based selective culling of genetically similar trees from a stand so as to increase the genetic base of seed production areas could be a new proposition to improve quality of seeds required for raising commercial plantations of teak. The technique can also be used to assess the genetic diversity status of plus trees within provenances during their selection for raising clonal seed orchards for assuring the quality of seeds available for raising future plantations.

Keywords: AFLP, genetic structure, spa, teak

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20542 A House for Men: A Study of the Dong Minority Residential Architecture in the Southern Dialect Areas from a Gender Perspective

Authors: Fung Sze Wai Veera, Peter W. Ferretto

Abstract:

Gender functions as a principle in organizing society based on the cultural meanings given to males and females. It is an essential component in constructing the spatial reality, one that is in most cases in favor of men’s needs and disregards that of women’s. Similar to other minorities in China, men of the Dong community hold the primary position in policymaking, moral standards, social values, and, furthermore, the building of the physical environment. This study, therefore, aims to investigate the residential architecture of Dong through the lens of gender. Specifically, it examines how the patriarchal practice of Dong is manifested in terms of the spatial organization, the architectural feature, and the construction process of Dong houses in the southern dialect areas. While the residential architecture of Dong has been extensively researched, the role of gender culture in designing and constructing it deserves more research attention. Ultimately, the objective of this study is to challenge the notion of gender-inclusive design in the rural China context while opening up a cross-disciplinary discussion concerning Chinese minority architecture and gender studies.

Keywords: Dong minority residential architecture, gender study, built environment, male-dominated society, gender-inclusive design

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20541 The Geochemical Characteristic and Tectonic Setting of Mezoic-Cenozoic Volcanic and Granitic Rocks in Southern Sumatra, Indonesia

Authors: Syahrir Andi Mangga

Abstract:

During 1989–1993, the Geological Research and Development Center (recent Geological Survey Institute) Geological Agency, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Republic of Indonesia was the collaboration with British Geological Survey, the United Kingdom to do technical assistance in order to collect data of geology in Sumatra Island. The overall corporation of technical programs was larger concern in stratigraphy, geochemical and age-dating studies. Availability of new data has been stimulated to reassessment of tectonic evolution of Sumatra Island. The study area located in Southern Sumatra within at latitudes 0°-6° S and 99°40’-106’00 E longitudes. The study tectonic is situated within along South Western margin of Sunda land, The Southeast Asia Continental extension arc of the Eurasian Plate and formed as part of Sunda Arc. The oceanic crust of Indian-Australian plate recently is being oblique subduction along the Sunda Trench off the West coast Sumatra. The Mesozoic-Cenozoic of the volcanic and granitic rocks can be divided into northern and southern plutons, defining a series subparallel, controlled by fault, northwest-southeast trending belts, some of the plutons are deformed and under-formed. They are widely exposed along the south-eastern side of the Barisan mountain. Based on the characteristic of minerals and crystallography, rocks found in this study area were granite, granitic, monzogranite and andesitic-Basaltic Volcanic Rock. It belongs to calc Alkaline was predominantly metalumina, I-Type Granite, Volcanic arc granites, Syncollisonal Granites (Syn_COLG) and tholeiitic basalt. It was formed since 169±5 to 20±1 Ma. The origin of magmas in interpreted to be derived from partial melting of igneous rock. The occurrence of the gratoid and volcanic rocks supposed to be closely related to the subduction of the Australian-Hindia oceanic crust beneath the Eurasia/Sunda land Continental Crust as Volcanic arc or continental margin granitic and shown youngest to the southwest. The subduction process having probably been different in position between one terrane to others led to the occurrence of segmentation subduction system. The positional discontinuities of the subduction are probably caused by the difference in time of emplacement and mechanism of volcanic and granitic rock between segments.

Keywords: tectonic setting, I-type granitic, subduction, Southern Sumatra

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20540 Home-based Production of the Southern Dialect Dong Minority Women in Rural Hunan, China

Authors: Sze Wai Veera Fung, Peter W. Ferretto

Abstract:

Since the economic reform in 1980s, many men and women of the southern dialect Dong minority have migrated to coastal cities for employment. Responding to the outgoing providers of the families, women, especially those at the middle age, resort to the informal home-based services and goods production for income generation. Homework, therefore, becomes a key economic strategy in supporting the household expenses in rural China, where formal employment is often inadequate for local women. This paper seeks to examine the intersection between gender and household strategy in the broader economic context of rural China. Based on the interviews and site survey in Tongdao Dong Autonomous County, the study analyses the variety of the home-based production activities, the experience of women in the production process, and the impact on familial relation and gender division of labor at home. The objective of this research is to advance the understanding of the informal economic landscape in the contemporary rural China, through which an alternative and possibly a more appropriate mode of development can be investigated.

Keywords: gender relation, home-based production, household strategy, informal economy, rural China, dong minority

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20539 An Analysis of Fertility Decline in India: Evidences from Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh

Authors: Ajay Kumar

Abstract:

Using data from census of India, sample registration system and national family health survey (NFHS-3), this paper traces spatial pattern, trends and the factors which have played their role differently in fertility transition in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. For the purpose spatial variation analysis, trend line and binary logistic regression analysis has been carried out. There exist considerable regional disparities in terms of fertility decline in northern and southern states. The pace of fertility decline has been faster in southern and coastal regions, and at a slow pace in backward northern state. In Tamil Nadu fertility declined substantially among the women of lower and higher age groups in comparison to Uttar Pradesh characterized by low literacy, low female age at marriage, poor health infrastructure and low status of women. The Study shows that Fertility rates have been higher among the most vulnerable and deprived sections of the society like Illiterate women, women belong to scheduled caste, scheduled tribe and women residing in rural areas.

Keywords: age specific fertility rate, fertility transition, replacement level, total fertility rate

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20538 Research on Sensitivity of Geological Disasters in Road Area Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

Authors: Li Yongyi

Abstract:

In order to explore the distribution of geological disasters within the expressway area of Shaanxi Province, the Analytic Hierarchy Process theory is applied based on the geographic information system technology platform, and the ground elevation, rainfall, vegetation coverage and other indicators are selected for analysis, and the expressway area is sensitive Sexual evaluation. The results show that the highway area disasters in Shaanxi Province are mainly distributed in the southern mountainous areas and are dominated by landslides; the disaster area ratio basically increases with the increase in ground elevation, surface slope, surface undulation, rainfall, and vegetation coverage. The increase in the distance from the river shows a decreasing trend; after grading the disaster sensitivity within 5km of the expressway, the extremely sensitive area, the highly sensitive area, the medium sensitive area, the low sensitive area, and the extremely low sensitive area respectively account for 8.17%、15.80%、22.99%、26.22%、26.82%. Highly sensitive road areas are mainly distributed in southern Shaanxi.

Keywords: highway engineering, sensitivity, analytic hierarchy process, geological hazard, road area

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20537 Chromite Exploration Using Electrical Resistivity Tomography in Ingessana Hill, Blue Nile State, Sudan

Authors: Mohamed A. Mohamed-Ali, Jannis Simos, Khalid M. Kheiralla

Abstract:

The Ingessana hills in the southern Blue Nile of Sudan are part of the southern sector of the NE-SW trending ophiolithic belt of the Arab-Nubian Shield with mid-neoproterozoic age. The rocks are mainly serpentinized and in parts highly silicified dunites especially towards the contact with the intruding Bau granite. A promising chromite mineralization zones in the area tend to be generally associated with NE-SW trending shear-zones. A detailed geophysical survey employing electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) at 34 lines were carried out over a zone of a known chromite mineralization to test feasibility of detecting and delineating the ore (if exist) and accordingly facilitate the positioning of exploratory drill holes. ERT sections were inverted with smooth constraints inversion code where the contacts between the granite and the ultramafics are showing up clearly. The continuity of mineralization along the contact is not well confirmed. However, the low-resistivity anomalies are probably recognized as potential chromite mineralization zones. These anomalies represent prime targets for further exploration by drilling, trenching or shallow pits. If the results of the drilling or excavations are positive, small open pit exploitations may produce important tonnages of chromite.

Keywords: chromite exploration, ERT, Ingessana Hills, inversion

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20536 Characteristics of the Rocks Glacier Deposits in the Southern Carpathians, Romania

Authors: Petru Urdea

Abstract:

As a distinct part of the mountain system, the rock glacier system is a particularly periglacial debris system. Being an open system, it works in a manner of interconnection with others subsystems like glacial, cliffs, rocky slopes sand talus slope subsystems, which are sources of sediments. One characteristic is that for long periods of time it is like a storage unit for debris, and ice, and temporary for snow and water. In the Southern Carpathians 306 rock glaciers were identified. The vast majority of these rock glaciers, are talus rock glaciers, 74%, and 26%, are debris rock glaciers. In the area occupied by granites and granodiorites are present, 49% of all the rock glaciers, representing 61% of the area occupied by Southern Carpathians rock glaciers. This lithological dependence also leaves its mark on the specifics of the deposits, everything bearing the imprint of the particular way the rocks respond to the physical weathering processes, all in a periglacial regime. If in the domain of granites and granodiorites the blocks are large, - of metric order, even 10 m3 - , in the domain of the metamorphic rocks only gneisses can cut similar sizes. Amphibolites, amphibolitic schists, micaschists, sericite-chlorite schists and phyllites crop out in much smaller blocks, of decimetric order, mostly in the form of slabs. In the case of rock glaciers made up of large blocks, with a strcture of open-works type, the density and volume of voids between the blocks is greater, the smaller debris generating more compact structures with fewer voids. All these influences the thermal regime, associated with a certain type of air circulation during the seasons and the emergence of permafrost formation conditions. The rock glaciers are fed by rock falls, rock avalanches, debris flows, avalanches, so that the structure is heterogeneous, which is also reflected in the detailed topography of the rock glaciers. This heterogeneity is also influenced by the spatial assembly of the rock bodies in the supply area and, an element that cannot be omitted, the behavior of the rocks during periglacial weathering. The production of small gelifracts determines the filling of voids and the appearance of more compact structures, with effects on the creep process. In general, surface deposits are coarser, those in depth are finer, their characteristics being detectable by applying geophysical methods. The electrical tomography (ERT) and georadar (GPR) investigations carried out in the Făgăraş Mountains, Retezat and the Parâng Mountains, each with a different lithological specificity, allowed the identification of some differentiations, including the presence of permafrost bodies.

Keywords: rock glaciers deposits, structure, lithology, permafrost, Southern Carpathians, Romania

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20535 Alkaloid Levels in Experimental Lines of Ryegrass in Southtern Chile

Authors: Leonardo Parra, Manuel Chacón-Fuentes, Andrés Quiroz

Abstract:

One of the most important factors in beef and dairy production in the world as well as also in Chile, is related to the correct choice of cultivars or mixtures of forage grasses and legumes to ensure high yields and quality of grassland. However, a great problem is the persistence of the grasses as a result of the action of different hypogeous as epigean pests. The complex insect pests associated with grassland include white grubs (Hylamorpha elegans, Phytoloema herrmanni), blackworm (Dalaca pallens) and Argentine stem weevil (Listronotus bonariensis). In Chile, the principal strategy utilized for controlling this pest is chemical control, through the use of synthetic insecticides, however, underground feeding habits of larval and flight activity of adults makes this uneconomic method. Furthermore, due to problems including environmental degradation, development of resistance and chemical residues, there is a worldwide interest in the use of alternative environmentally friendly pest control methods. In this sense, in recent years there has been an increasing interest in determining the role of endophyte fungi in controlling epigean and hypogeous pest. Endophytes from ryegrass (Lolium perenne), establish a biotrophic relationship with the host, defined as mutualistic symbiosis. The plant-fungi association produces a “cocktail of alkaloids” where peramine is the main toxic substance present in endophyte of ryegrass and responsible for damage reduction of L. bonariensis. In the last decade, few studies have been developed on the effectiveness of new ryegrass cultivars carriers of endophyte in controlling insect pests. Therefore, the aim of this research is to provide knowledge concerning to evaluate the alkaloid content, such as peramine and Lolitrem B, present in new experimental lines of ryegrass and feasible to be used in grasslands of southern Chile. For this, during 2016, ryegrass plants of six experimental lines and two commercial cultivars sown at the Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias Carrillanca (Vilcún, Chile) were collected and subjected to a process of chemical extraction to identify and quantify the presence of peramine and lolitrem B by the technique of liquid chromatography of high resolution (HPLC). The results indicated that the experimental lines EL-1 and EL-3 had high content of peramine (0.25 and 0.43 ppm, respectively) than with lolitrem B (0.061 and 0.19 ppm, respectively). Furthermore, the higher contents of lolitrem B were detected in the EL-4 and commercial cultivar Alto (positive control) with 0.08 and 0.17 ppm, respectively. Peramine and lolitrem B were not detected in the cultivar Jumbo (negative control). These results suggest that EL-3 would have potential as future cultivate because it has high content of peramine, alkaloid responsible for controlling insect pest. However, their current role on the complex insects attacking ryegrass grasslands should be evaluated. The information obtained in this research could be used to improve control strategies against hypogeous and epigean pests of grassland in southern Chile and also to reduce the use of synthetic pesticides.

Keywords: HPLC, Lolitrem B, peramine, pest

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20534 Geomagnetic Jerks Observed in Geomagnetic Observatory Data Over Southern Africa Between 2017 and 2023

Authors: Sanele Lionel Khanyile, Emmanuel Nahayo

Abstract:

Geomagnetic jerks are jumps observed in the second derivative of the main magnetic field that occurs on annual to decadal timescales. Understanding these jerks is crucial as they provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of the Earth’s outer liquid core. In this study, we investigate the occurrence of geomagnetic jerks in geomagnetic observatory data collected at southern African magnetic observatories, Hermanus (HER), Tsumeb (TSU), Hartebeesthoek (HBK) and Keetmanshoop (KMH) between 2017 and 2023. The observatory data was processed and analyzed by retaining quiet night-time data recorded during quiet geomagnetic activities with the help of Kp, Dst, and ring current RC indices. Results confirm the occurrence of the 2019-2020 geomagnetic jerk in the region and identify the recent 2021 jerk detected with V-shaped secular variation changes in X and Z components at all four observatories. The highest estimated 2021 jerk secular acceleration amplitudes in X and Z components were found at HBK, 12.7 nT/year² and 19. 1 nT/year², respectively. Notably, the global CHAOS-7 model aptly identifies this 2021 jerk in the Z component at all magnetic observatories in the region.

Keywords: geomagnetic jerks, secular variation, magnetic observatory data, South Atlantic Anomaly

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20533 Viewers’ Reactions to Excessive Ritual Themes in Nigerian Home Videos: A Portharcourt City Survey

Authors: Godwin Bassey Okon

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The need to streamline viewers’ disposition towards the predominant portrayal of rituals, in most Nigerian home videos, as a way of life in the southern part of Nigeria necessitated this study. The focus however was on ascertaining if such portrayals dovetail within the framework of construction of social reality or misconstruction of social reality. In other words, do the people of the southern part of Nigeria engage in rituals as a means of acquiring wealth or do they merely have proclivity for diabolism, as frequently portrayed in home videos subsumed in their socio-cultural settings? The method of study was survey with the questionnaire as the predominant instrument. The questionnaire was used to elicit responses from Portharcourt city residents on their views and reactions in the light of ritual themes in Nigerian home videos. The choice of Portharcourt was informed by the fact that it is a foremost cosmopolitan city in the south. A Sample size of 400 was drawn from a population of 1,382,392 using Taro Yamane’s formula. Actual respondents were reached using a multi-stage cluster sampling technique. The reliability of the instrument as ascertained through Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation stood at 0.89. Findings however revealed that ritual themes, as used in Nigerian home videos, did not significantly reflect the cultural heritage of the people of southern Nigeria. Findings further showed that their excessive use in Nigerian home videos served only to create frills and thrills in plots. A synthesis of the foregoing, however, revealed that viewers are not favourably disposed towards the excessive use of ritual themes since they inadvertently portray the cultural heritage of the people of the south in the negative. To this end, it was recommended that producers of Nigerian home videos should focus more on themes that serve to construct social reality while projecting favorably the rich cultural heritage of the people. In terms of contribution to knowledge, the findings of this study tend to reinforce the notion of film as a conveyor belt in cognitive constructs.

Keywords: disposition, home videos, ritual, social reality, themes

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20532 Pregnancy Outcomes Affected by COVID-19, Large Obstetrics and Gynecology Cohort in Southern Vietnam

Authors: Le-Quyen Nguyen, Hoang Van Bui, Ngoc Thi Tran, Binh Thanh Le, Linus Olson, Thanh Quang Le

Abstract:

Objective: We compared of outcomes between infected and non-infected COVID-19 pregnant at the largest obstetrics and gynecology hospital in southern Vietnam. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was conducted at gestational age (GA) 28-42 weeks, who terminated pregnancy and had a real-time PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 at Tu Du Hospital. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and epidemiological data were collected from hospital electronic-medical-records. Diagnosis and screening of SARS-CoV-2 used Real-time-PCR. Results: From July to October 2021, 9,246 pregnant with GA of 28-42 weeks were delivered, including 664 infected with COVID-19 and 8,582 non-infected. The cesarean section (CS) rates of pregnant with and without COVID-19 were 47.3% and 46.0%. At GA 32-34 weeks, the rate of CS with COVID-19 was 5.07 times higher than without. The rate of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) and the Apgar score between these two groups were similar. The mortality rate of infected pregnants was 2.26%. Conclusions: COVID-19 infection increased the CS rate in the group of preterm pregnancies from 32 to less than 34 weeks. COVID-19 did not increase the risk of complications related to adverse pregnancy outcomes such as PPH, Apgar scores, the ratio of stillbirths, deaths due to malformation, and fetal deaths in labor.

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, pregnancy, outcome, vietnam

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20531 Influence of Shear Parameter on Liquefaction Susceptibility of Ramsar Sand

Authors: Siavash Salamatpoor, Hossein Motaghedi, Jr., Mehrdad Nategh

Abstract:

In this study, undrained triaxial tests under anisotropic consolidation were conducted on the reconstituted samples of Ramsar sand, which underlies a densely populated, seismic region of the southern coast of Caspian Sea in Mazandaran province, Iran. Ramsar costal city is regularly visited by many tourists. Accordingly, many tall building and heavy structures are going to be constructed over this coastal area. This region is overlaid by poorly graded clean sand and because of high water level, is susceptible to liquefaction. The specimens were consolidated anisotropically to simulate initial shear stress which is mobilized due to surface constructions. Different states of soil behavior were obtained by applying different levels of initial relative density, shear stress, and effective stress. It is shown that Ramsar clean sand can experience the whole possible states of liquefiable soils i.e. fully liquefaction, limited liquefaction, and dilation behaviors. It would be shown that by increasing the shear parameter in high confine pressure, the liquefaction susceptibility has increased while for low confine pressure it would be vice versa.

Keywords: anisotropic, triaxial test, shear parameter, static liquefaction

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20530 The Right Hand in Indigenous African Economic Thought: The Case of the Benin People of Southern Nigeria

Authors: Idahosa Osagie Ojo

Abstract:

The paper analyses the right hand in indigenous African economic thought using the Benin people of Southern Nigeria as a case study. The Benin people esteemed handiwork and industriousness and embodied it with the right hand, which was regarded as the ultimate bringer of material wellbeing and societal status. The paper aims to contribute to African economic thought by analysing the conception of the hand in pre-colonial Benin society as the source of material wherewithal and to reveal how the hand was epitomised as the ultimate purveyor of economic providence and class status. The study adopts the historical method, and the interpretive design was used. Primary and secondary sources were utilised, and the findings confirm that the conception of the hand as the giver of material wellbeing was calculatingly done to recompense an industrious and productive lifestyle worthy of accolades and emulations. Findings also show that the people of Benin thought that the right hand is the ultimate bringer of material prosperity and therefore placed tremendous value on it up to the point of veneration. The paper also reveals that the Benin people thought that the fruits of one’s labour outvalued other possessions like an inheritance. The paper also shows that the Benin economic thought, on the hand, as signifying productiveness, intensely encouraged productivity and disdained indolence in the society.

Keywords: Benin, economic thought, hand, industriousness

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20529 Assessment of Pedestrian Comfort in a Portuguese City Using Computational Fluid Dynamics Modelling and Wind Tunnel

Authors: Bruno Vicente, Sandra Rafael, Vera Rodrigues, Sandra Sorte, Sara Silva, Ana Isabel Miranda, Carlos Borrego

Abstract:

Wind comfort for pedestrians is an important condition in urban areas. In Portugal, a country with 900 km of coastline, the wind direction are predominantly from Nor-Northwest with an average speed of 2.3 m·s -1 (at 2 m height). As a result, a set of city authorities have been requesting studies of pedestrian wind comfort for new urban areas/buildings, as well as to mitigate wind discomfort issues related to existing structures. This work covers the efficiency evaluation of a set of measures to reduce the wind speed in an outdoor auditorium (open space) located in a coastal Portuguese urban area. These measures include the construction of barriers, placed at upstream and downstream of the auditorium, and the planting of trees, placed upstream of the auditorium. The auditorium is constructed in the form of a porch, aligned with North direction, driving the wind flow within the auditorium, promoting channelling effects and increasing its speed, causing discomfort in the users of this structure. To perform the wind comfort assessment, two approaches were used: i) a set of experiments using the wind tunnel (physical approach), with a representative mock-up of the study area; ii) application of the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model VADIS (numerical approach). Both approaches were used to simulate the baseline scenario and the scenarios considering a set of measures. The physical approach was conducted through a quantitative method, using hot-wire anemometer, and through a qualitative analysis (visualizations), using the laser technology and a fog machine. Both numerical and physical approaches were performed for three different velocities (2, 4 and 6 m·s-1 ) and two different directions (NorNorthwest and South), corresponding to the prevailing wind speed and direction of the study area. The numerical results show an effective reduction (with a maximum value of 80%) of the wind speed inside the auditorium, through the application of the proposed measures. A wind speed reduction in a range of 20% to 40% was obtained around the audience area, for a wind direction from Nor-Northwest. For southern winds, in the audience zone, the wind speed was reduced from 60% to 80%. Despite of that, for southern winds, the design of the barriers generated additional hot spots (high wind speed), namely, in the entrance to the auditorium. Thus, a changing in the location of the entrance would minimize these effects. The results obtained in the wind tunnel compared well with the numerical data, also revealing the high efficiency of the purposed measures (for both wind directions).

Keywords: urban microclimate, pedestrian comfort, numerical modelling, wind tunnel experiments

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20528 A Geospatial Approach to Coastal Vulnerability Using Satellite Imagery and Coastal Vulnerability Index: A Case Study Mauritius

Authors: Manta Nowbuth, Marie Anais Kimberley Therese

Abstract:

The vulnerability of coastal areas to storm surges stands as a critical global concern. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased the risks faced by communities living along the coastlines Worldwide. Small Island developing states (SIDS) stands out as being exceptionally vulnerable, coastal regions, ecosystems of human habitation and natural forces, bear witness to the frontlines of climate-induced challenges, and the intensification of storm surges underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of coastal vulnerability. With limited landmass, low-lying terrains, and resilience on coastal resources, SIDS face an amplified vulnerability to the consequences of storm surges, the delicate balance between human activities and environmental dynamics in these island nations increases the urgency of tailored strategies for assessing and mitigating coastal vulnerability. This research uses an approach to evaluate the vulnerability of coastal communities in Mauritius. The Satellite imagery analysis makes use of sentinel satellite imageries, modified normalised difference water index, classification techniques and the DSAS add on to quantify the extent of shoreline erosion or accumulation, providing a spatial perspective on coastal vulnerability. The coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is applied by Gonitz et al Formula, this index considers factors such as coastal slope, sea level rise, mean significant wave height, and tidal range. Weighted assessments identify regions with varying levels of vulnerability, ranging from low to high. The study was carried out in a Village Located in the south of Mauritius, namely Rivière des Galets, with a population of about 500 people over an area of 60,000m². The Village of Rivière des Galets being located in the south, and the southern coast of Mauritius being exposed to the open Indian ocean, is vulnerable to swells, The swells generated by the South east trade winds can lead to large waves and rough sea conditions along the Southern Coastline which has an impact on the coastal activities, including fishing, tourism and coastal Infrastructures, hence, On the one hand, the results highlighted that from a stretch of 123km of coastline the linear rate regression for the 5 –year span varies from-24.1m/yr. to 8.2m/yr., the maximum rate of change in terms of eroded land is -24m/yr. and the maximum rate of accretion is 8.2m/yr. On the other hand, the coastal vulnerability index varies from 9.1 to 45.6 and it was categorised into low, moderate, high and very high risks zones. It has been observed that region which lacks protective barriers and are made of sandy beaches are categorised as high risks zone and hence it is imperative to high risk regions for immediate attention and intervention, as they will most likely be exposed to coastal hazards and impacts from climate change, which demands proactive measures for enhanced resilience and sustainable adaptation strategies.

Keywords: climate change, coastal vulnerability, disaster management, remote sensing, satellite imagery, storm surge

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20527 Understanding the Architecture of Hindu Temples: A Philosophical Interpretation

Authors: A. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

Vedic philosophy is one of the oldest existing philosophies of the world. Started around 6500 BC, in Western Indian subcontinent, the Indus valley Civilizations developed a theology which, gradually developed into a well-established philosophy of beliefs, popularly known as ‘Hindu religion’. In Vedic theology, the abstract concept of God was formulated mostly by close observation of the dynamicity and the recurrence of natural and universal phenomena. Through the ages, the philosophy of this theology went through various discursions, debates, and questionings and the abstract concept of God was, in time, formalized into more representational forms by the means of various signs and symbols. Often, these symbols were used in more subtle ways in the construction of “sacred” sculptures and structures. Apparently, two different philosophies were developed from the Vedic philosophy and these two philosophies are mostly seen in the northern part and southern part of the Indian subcontinent. This paper tries to summarize the complex philosophical treaties of Hinduism of northern and southern India and seeks to understand the meanings of the various signs and symbolisms that were incorporated in the architecture of Hindu temples, including the names given to various parts of the temples. The Hindu temples are not only places of worship or ‘houses of Gods’ like the Greek and Roman temples but are also structures that symbolize the dynamicity and also spiritual upliftment of human beings.

Keywords: Hindu, philosophy, temple, Vedic

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20526 First Surveillance Results Bring No Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 Spillback in Bats of Central-Southern Italy

Authors: Hiba Dakroub, Danilo Russo, Luca Cistrone, Francesco Serra, Giovanna Fusco, Esterina De Carlo, Maria Grazia Amoroso

Abstract:

The question of the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and the cycle of transmission between humans and animals is still unanswered. One serious concern associated with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is that the virus might spill back from humans to wildlife, which would render some animal species reservoirs of the human virus. The aim of the present study is to monitor the potential risk of SARS-CoV-2 reverse infection from humans to bats, by performing bat surveillance from different sites in Central-Southern Italy. We collected 240 droppings or saliva from 129 bats and tested them using specific and general primers of SARS-COV-2 and coronaviruses respectively. All samples, including 127 nasal swabs and 113 fecal droppings resulted negative for SARS-COV-2, and these results were confirmed by testing the samples with the Droplet Digital PCR. Also, an end-point RT-PCR was performed and no sample showed specific bands. The absence of SARS-CoV-2 in the bats we surveyed is a first step towards a better understanding of reverse transmission to bats of this virus. We hope our first contribution will encourage the establishment of systematic surveillance of wildlife, and specifically bats, to help prevent reverse zoonotic episodes that would jeopardize human health as well as biodiversity conservation and management.

Keywords: coronaviruses, bats, zoonotic viruses, spillback, SARS-CoV-2

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20525 Bipolar Reduction and Lithic Miniaturization: Experimental Results and Archaeological Implications

Authors: Justin Pargeter, Metin Eren

Abstract:

Lithic miniaturization, the systematic production and use of small tools from small cores, was a consequential development in Pleistocene lithic technology. The bipolar reduction is an important, but often overlooked and misidentified, strategy for lithic miniaturization. This experiment addresses the role of axial bipolar reduction in processes of lithic miniaturization. The experiments answer two questions: what benefits does axial bipolar reduction provide, and can we distinguish axial bipolar reduction from freehand reduction? Our experiments demonstrate the numerous advantages of bipolar reduction in contexts of lithic miniaturization. Bipolar reduction produces more cutting edge per gram and is more economical than freehand reduction. Our cutting edge to mass values exceeds even those obtained with pressure blade production on high-quality obsidian. The experimental results show that bipolar reduction produces cutting edge quicker and is more efficient than freehand reduction. We show that bipolar reduction can be distinguished from freehand reduction with a high degree of confidence using the quantitative criteria in these experiments. These observations overturn long-held perceptions about bipolar reduction. We conclude by discussing the role of bipolar reduction in lithic miniaturization and Stone Age economics more broadly.

Keywords: lithic miniaturization, bipolar reduction, late Pleistocene, Southern Africa

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20524 The Effects of Above-Average Precipitation after Extended Drought on Phytoplankton in Southern California Surface Water Reservoirs

Authors: Margaret K. Spoo-Chupka

Abstract:

The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWDSC) manages surface water reservoirs that are a source of drinking water for more than 19 million people in Southern California. These reservoirs experience periodic planktonic cyanobacteria blooms that can impact water quality. MWDSC imports water from two sources – the Colorado River (CR) and the State Water Project (SWP). The SWP brings supplies from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta that are characterized as having higher nutrients than CR water. Above average precipitation in 2017 after five years of drought allowed the majority of the reservoirs to fill. Phytoplankton was analyzed during the drought and after the drought at three reservoirs: Diamond Valley Lake (DVL), which receives SWP water exclusively, Lake Skinner, which can receive a blend of SWP and CR water, and Lake Mathews, which generally receives only CR water. DVL experienced a significant increase in water elevation in 2017 due to large SWP inflows, and there were no significant changes to total phytoplankton biomass, Shannon-Wiener diversity of the phytoplankton, or cyanobacteria biomass in 2017 compared to previous drought years despite the higher nutrient loads. The biomass of cyanobacteria that could potentially impact DVL water quality (Microcystis spp., Aphanizomenon flos-aquae, Dolichospermum spp., and Limnoraphis birgei) did not differ significantly between the heavy precipitation year and drought years. Compared to the other reservoirs, DVL generally has the highest concentration of cyanobacteria due to the water supply having greater nutrients. Lake Mathews’ water levels were similar in drought and wet years due to a reliable supply of CR water and there were no significant changes in the total phytoplankton biomass, phytoplankton diversity, or cyanobacteria biomass in 2017 compared to previous drought years. The biomass of cyanobacteria that could potentially impact water quality at Lake Mathews (L. birgei and Microcystis spp.) did not differ significantly between 2017 and previous drought years. Lake Mathews generally had the lowest cyanobacteria biomass due to the water supply having lower nutrients. The CR supplied most of the water to Lake Skinner during drought years, while the SWP was the primary source during 2017. This change in water source resulted in a significant increase in phytoplankton biomass in 2017, no significant change in diversity, and a significant increase in cyanobacteria biomass. Cyanobacteria that could potentially impact water quality at Skinner included: Microcystis spp., Dolichospermum spp., and A.flos-aquae. There was no significant difference in Microcystis spp. biomass in 2017 compared to previous drought years, but biomass of Dolichospermum spp. and A.flos-aquae were significantly greater in 2017 compared to previous drought years. Dolichospermum sp. and A. flos-aquae are two cyanobacteria that are more sensitive to nutrients than Microcystis spp., which are more sensitive to temperature. Patterns in problem cyanobacteria abundance among Southern California reservoirs as a result of above-average precipitation after more than five years of drought were most closely related to nutrient loading.

Keywords: drought, reservoirs, cyanobacteria, and phytoplankton ecology

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20523 Species Composition of Alticinae Newman, 1834 (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae): Distribution and Host Plants in Eastern Upper Plains (Setif, Algeria)

Authors: M. Bounechada, M. Fenni, S. Bouharati, S. E. Doumandji

Abstract:

The study was taken in Setif region (36° 11' 29 N and 5° 24' 34 E) located at the north-eastern of Algeria. This paper recorded and discusses zoogeography and host plant relationships of Setifian species Alticinae subfamily. A total of 50 species belonging to Alticinae subfamily of Chrysomelidae which is the economically important familty, were recorded from differentes localities of Setif region. They are included in 10 genera. Genera Longitarsus Berthold, 1827 is less species-rich than the other Alticinae genera captured. It represens about 38% of the all species collected. Cruciferae and Compositae were the mostly prefered host plant families representing Alticinae species. For each species we mentioned the collecting sites, geographical distribution and the host plants.

Keywords: Algeria, Alticinae, Chrysomelidae, Coleoptera, distribution, host plants, species composition, Setif

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20522 Prediction of Malawi Rainfall from Global Sea Surface Temperature Using a Simple Multiple Regression Model

Authors: Chisomo Patrick Kumbuyo, Katsuyuki Shimizu, Hiroshi Yasuda, Yoshinobu Kitamura

Abstract:

This study deals with a way of predicting Malawi rainfall from global sea surface temperature (SST) using a simple multiple regression model. Monthly rainfall data from nine stations in Malawi grouped into two zones on the basis of inter-station rainfall correlations were used in the study. Zone 1 consisted of Karonga and Nkhatabay stations, located in northern Malawi; and Zone 2 consisted of Bolero, located in northern Malawi; Kasungu, Dedza, Salima, located in central Malawi; Mangochi, Makoka and Ngabu stations located in southern Malawi. Links between Malawi rainfall and SST based on statistical correlations were evaluated and significant results selected as predictors for the regression models. The predictors for Zone 1 model were identified from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans while those for Zone 2 were identified from the Pacific Ocean. The correlation between the fit of predicted and observed rainfall values of the models were satisfactory with r=0.81 and 0.54 for Zone 1 and 2 respectively (significant at less than 99.99%). The results of the models are in agreement with other findings that suggest that SST anomalies in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans have an influence on the rainfall patterns of Southern Africa.

Keywords: Malawi rainfall, forecast model, predictors, SST

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20521 Outbound Tourism in Developed Countries: Analysis of the Trends, Behavior and the Transformation of the Moroccan Demand for International Travels

Authors: M. Boukhrouk, R. Ed-Dali

Abstract:

Outbound tourism in Morocco, as in the majority of developing countries, reveals some of the aspects of inequality between the north and the south. Considered by some researchers as one of the facets of the development crisis, access to tourism and especially international tourism is a chance for a small minority with financial means, while the vast portions of the population dream rather of immigrating to a developed country for the sake of improving their standard of living. The right to travel is also limited by visa requirements, procedures in host countries, security and technical measures and creates discrimination in the practice of tourism. These conditions do not seem to be favorable to the democratization of the practice of international tourism for the populations of the southern countries. This paper is a contribution to the reading of the trends of outbound tourism in developing countries through the example of Morocco. It highlights the different aspects of Moroccan outbound tourism, destinations and the behavior of tourists through an analysis of the offer of a sample of 50 travel agencies. In the same vein, it offers a reading grid of the possibilities offered for the development of outbound tourism and the various existing obstacles to the democratization of international outbound tourism in the southern countries. This reading reveals the transformation in the behavior of Moroccan international tourists as well as the profound changes in Moroccan society, through a model of statistical analysis.

Keywords: demand, Hajj, Morocco, outbound tourism, tendency, Umrah

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20520 The Hurricane 'Bump': Measuring the Effects of Hurricanes on Wages in Southern Louisiana

Authors: Jasmine Latiolais

Abstract:

Much of the disaster-related literature finds a positive relationship between the impact of a natural disaster and the growth of wages. Panel datasets are often used to explore these effects. However, natural disasters do not impact a single variable in the economy. Rather, natural disasters affect all facets of the economy, simultaneously, upon impact. It is difficult to control for all factors that would be influenced by the impact of a natural disaster, which can lead to lead to omitted variable bias in those studies employing panel datasets. To address this issue of omitted variable bias, an interrupted time series analysis is used to test the short-run relationship between the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on parish wage levels in Southern Louisiana, inherently controlling for economic conditions. This study provides evidence that natural disasters do increase wages in the very short term (one quarter following the impact of the hurricane) but that these results are not seen in the longer term and are not robust. In addition, the significance of the coefficients changes depending on the parish. Overall, this study finds that previous literature on this topic may not be robust when considered through a time-series lens.

Keywords: economic recovery, local economies, local wage growth, natural disasters

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20519 Development of Time Series Forecasting Model for Dengue Cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Southern Thailand

Authors: Manit Pollar

Abstract:

Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 358