An Analysis of Fertility Decline in India: Evidences from Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh

Authors: Ajay Kumar

Abstract:

Using data from census of India, sample registration system and national family health survey (NFHS-3), this paper traces spatial pattern, trends and the factors which have played their role differently in fertility transition in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. For the purpose spatial variation analysis, trend line and binary logistic regression analysis has been carried out. There exist considerable regional disparities in terms of fertility decline in northern and southern states. The pace of fertility decline has been faster in southern and coastal regions, and at a slow pace in backward northern state. In Tamil Nadu fertility declined substantially among the women of lower and higher age groups in comparison to Uttar Pradesh characterized by low literacy, low female age at marriage, poor health infrastructure and low status of women. The Study shows that Fertility rates have been higher among the most vulnerable and deprived sections of the society like Illiterate women, women belong to scheduled caste, scheduled tribe and women residing in rural areas.

Keywords: age specific fertility rate, fertility transition, replacement level, total fertility rate