Search results for: possibility uncertainty

Authors: Alireza Sohrabi, Hamid Mohammadi

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The pistachio fruit is a strategic product in Iran. One of the problems caused the reduction of pistachio proceeds is related to biennial- bearing or alternative bearing. Biennial- bearing is very important and is happened because of the fallen female bloom buds in vintage year. This test was done according to random blocks of 6 orchards in the type of Ahmad Aghaie with 4 iterations. Vegetative properties of branch are investigated. The results are shown that if the bunch numbers are increased, the possibility of falling is increased in bloom buds. The least possibility of falling of bloom buds is specified in trimming of one bunch and has significant difference with other trimming.

Keywords: alternate bearing, pistachio, cluster, bud

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Authors: Katarzyna Kamińska

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The main purpose of the work is to present the results of the studies regarding joint physical custody in the Polish legal system. The issues addressed fit into the ongoing process of modernising family law regulations and their adaptation to changing social reality in Poland. The Polish legislator now faces a dilemma: whether to introduce into Polish law a developed substantive or procedural regulation of joint physical custody and then whether it should be considered a legal presumption. Joint physical custody after divorce or separation is theoretically possible in Poland. It can either follow from the court’s independent proposal based on the assessment of the circumstances or from the parenting plan submitted by parents wishing to jointly retain full parental authority. However, joint physical custody does not result directly from the Polish Family and Guardianship Code. Therefore, there is real legal uncertainty in this matter, which leads to different treatment of citizens by the public authorities and courts. Another problem is that joint physical custody is misunderstood by the Polish courts. The main thesis of the work is that joint physical custody does not only mean the system of symmetrical child care (50/50), and the possibility to award joint physical custody will require the courts to carefully weigh the pros and cons of such an arrangement in each individual case.

Keywords: joint physical custody, shared parenting, divorce, separation, parental authority

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Authors: Bezhan Ghvaberidze

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A fuzzy multi-objective facility location-selection problem (FLSP) under uncertain and extreme environments based on possibility theory is developed. The model’s uncertain parameters in the q-rung orthopair fuzzy values are presented and transformed in the Dempster-Shaper’s belief structure environment. An objective function – distribution centers’ selection ranking index as an extension of Dempster’s extremal expectations under discrimination q-rung orthopair fuzzy information is constructed. Experts evaluate each humanitarian aid from distribution centers (HADC) against each of the uncertain factors. HADCs location problem is reduced to the bicriteria problem of partitioning the set of customers by the set of centers: (1) – Minimization of transportation costs; (2) – Maximization of centers’ selection ranking indexes. Partitioning type constraints are also constructed. For an illustration of the obtained results, a numerical example is created from the facility location-selection problem.

Keywords: FLSP, multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem, evidence theory, HADC, q-rung orthopair fuzzy set, possibility theory

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Authors: Mohammad Amini, Aliakbar Alijarahi

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This research that is collected and title as ‘ the search of possibility of running six sigma process in IT education center ‘ goals to test possibility of running the six sigma process and using in IT education center system. This process is a good method that is used for reducing process, errors. To evaluate running off six sigma in the IT education center, some variables relevant to this process is selected. These variables are: - The amount of support from organization master boss to process. - The current specialty. - The ability of training system for compensating reduction. - The amount of match between current culture whit six sigma culture . - The amount of current quality by comparing whit quality gain from running six sigma. For evaluation these variables we select four question and to gain the answers, we set a questionnaire from with 28 question and distribute it in our typical society. Since, our working environment is a very competition, and organization needs to decree the errors to minimum, otherwise it lasts their customers. The questionnaire from is given to 55 persons, they were filled and returned by 50 persons, after analyzing the forms these results is gained: - IT education center needs to use and run this system (six sigma) for improving their process qualities. - The most factors need to run the six sigma exist in the IT education center, but there is a need to support.

Keywords: education, customer, self-action, quality, continuous improvement process

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Authors: Alexa L. Walsh, Christine Hartl, Juliette Ferdschneider, Lezode Kipoliongo, Eleonora Feketeova

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The investigation of COVID-19 and its effects has been at the forefront of clinical research since its emergence in the United States in 2020. Although the possibility of severe infection in immunocompromised individuals has been documented, within the general population of pregnant individuals, there remains to be vaccine hesitancy and uncertainty regarding how the virus may affect the individual and fetus. To combat this hesitancy, this study aims to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 infection on maternal and neonatal complication rates. This retrospective study was conducted by manual chart review of women who were diagnosed with COVID-19 during pregnancy (n = 78) and women who were not diagnosed with COVID-19 during pregnancy (n = 1,124) that gave birth at Garnet Health Medical Centers between 1/1/2019-1/1/2021. Both the COVID+ and COVID- groups exhibited similar median ages, BMI, and parity. The rates of complications were compared between the groups and statistical significance was determined using Chi-squared analysis. Results demonstrated a statistically higher rate of PROM, polyhydramnios, oligohydramnios, GDM, DVT/PE, preterm birth, and the overall incidence of any birth complication in the population that was infected with COVID-19 during their pregnancy. With this information, obstetrical providers can be better prepared for the management of COVID-19+ pregnancies and continue to educate their patients on the benefits of vaccination.

Keywords: complications, COVID-19, Gynecology, Obstetrics

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Authors: Mohamed Dhouibi, Bogdan Stirbu, Chabotier André, Marc Pirlot

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Internal barrel wear is a major factor affecting the performance of small caliber guns in their different life phases. Wear analysis is, therefore, a very important process for understanding how wear occurs, where it takes place, and how it spreads with the aim on improving the accuracy and effectiveness of small caliber weapons. This paper discusses the measurement and analysis of combustion chamber wear for a small-caliber gun using a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM). Initially, two different NATO small caliber guns: 5.56x45mm and 7.62x51mm, are considered. A Micura Zeiss Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) equipped with the VAST XTR gold high-end sensor is used to measure the inner profile of the two guns every 300-shot cycle. The CMM parameters, such us (i) the measuring force, (ii) the measured points, (iii) the time of masking, and (iv) the scanning velocity, are investigated. In order to ensure minimum measurement error, a statistical analysis is adopted to select the reliable CMM parameters combination. Next, two measurement strategies are developed to capture the shape and the volume of each gun chamber. Thus, a task-specific measurement uncertainty (TSMU) analysis is carried out for each measurement plan. Different approaches of TSMU evaluation have been proposed in the literature. This paper discusses two different techniques. The first is the substitution method described in ISO 15530 part 3. This approach is based on the use of calibrated workpieces with similar shape and size as the measured part. The second is the Monte Carlo simulation method presented in ISO 15530 part 4. Uncertainty evaluation software (UES), also known as the Virtual Coordinate Measuring Machine (VCMM), is utilized in this technique to perform a point-by-point simulation of the measurements. To conclude, a comparison between both approaches is performed. Finally, the results of the measurements are verified through calibrated gauges of several dimensions specially designed for the two barrels. On this basis, an experimental database is developed for further analysis aiming to quantify the relationship between the volume of wear and the muzzle velocity of small caliber guns.

Keywords: coordinate measuring machine, measurement uncertainty, erosion and wear volume, small caliber guns

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Y. Wang, S. Zhang, X. Chen

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The longitudinal compressive strength of fibre reinforced plastic (FRP) possess a large stochastic variability, which limits efficient application of composite structures. This study aims to address how the random fibre packing affects the uncertainty of FRP compressive strength. An novel approach is proposed to generate random fibre packing status by a combination of Latin hypercube sampling and random sequential expansion. 3D nonlinear finite element model is built which incorporates both the matrix plasticity and fibre geometrical instability. The matrix is modeled by isotropic ideal elasto-plastic solid elements, and the fibres are modeled by linear-elastic rebar elements. Composite with a series of different nominal fibre volume fractions are studied. Premature fibre waviness at different magnitude and direction is introduced in the finite element model. Compressive tests on uni-directional CFRP (carbon fibre reinforced plastic) are conducted following the ASTM D6641. By a comparison of 3D FE models and compressive tests, it is clearly shown that the stochastic variation of compressive strength is partly caused by the random fibre packing, and normal or lognormal distribution tends to be a good fit the probabilistic compressive strength. Furthermore, it is also observed that different random fibre packing could trigger two different fibre micro-buckling modes while subjected to longitudinal compression: out-of-plane buckling and twisted buckling. The out-of-plane buckling mode results much larger compressive strength, and this is the major reason why the random fibre packing results a large uncertainty in the FRP compressive strength. This study would contribute to new approaches to the quality control of FRP considering higher compressive strength or lower uncertainty.

Keywords: compressive strength, FRP, micro-buckling, random fibre packing

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Authors: Chung To Kong, Siu Ming Yiu

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Rubik's cube was invented in 1974. Since then, speedcubers all over the world try their best to break the world record again and again. The newest record is 3.47 seconds. There are many factors that affect the timing, including turns per second (tps), algorithm, finger trick, hardware of the cube. In this paper, the lower bound of the cube solving time will be discussed using convex optimization. Extended analysis of the world records will be used to understand how to improve the timing. With the understanding of each part of the solving step, the paper suggests a list of speed improvement techniques. Based on the analysis of the world record, there is a high possibility that the 3 seconds mark will be broken soon.

Keywords: Rubik's Cube, speed, finger trick, optimization

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Authors: Otto Kakhidze, Hoda Alkhzaimi, Adam Ramey, Nasir Memon

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This paper provides an alternative, cyber security based a conceptual framework for the ethics of automated warfare. The large body of work produced on fully or partially autonomous warfare systems tends to overlook malicious security factors as in the possibility of technical attacks on these systems when it comes to the moral and legal decision-making. The argument provides a risk-oriented justification to why technical malicious risks cannot be dismissed in legal, ethical and policy considerations when warfare models are being implemented and deployed. The assumptions of the paper are supported by providing a broader model that contains the perspective of technological vulnerabilities through the lenses of the Game Theory, Just War Theory as well as standard and non-standard defense ethics. The paper argues that a conventional risk-benefit analysis without considering ethical factors is insufficient for making legal and policy decisions on automated warfare. This approach will provide the substructure for security and defense experts as well as legal scholars, ethicists and decision theorists to work towards common justificatory grounds that will accommodate the technical security concerns that have been overlooked in the current legal and policy models.

Keywords: automated warfare, ethics of automation, inherent hijacking, security vulnerabilities, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Belkacem Laimouche

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With the field of artificial intelligence (AI) experiencing exponential growth, fueled by technological advancements that pave the way for increasingly innovative and promising applications, there is an escalating need to develop rigorous methods for assessing their performance in pursuit of transparency and equity. This article proposes a metrology-inspired statistical framework for evaluating bias and explainability in AI systems. Drawing from the principles of metrology, we propose a pioneering approach, using a concrete example, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AI models, as well as to quantify the sources of measurement uncertainty that can lead to bias in their predictions. Furthermore, we explore a statistical approach for evaluating the explainability of AI systems based on their ability to provide interpretable and transparent explanations of their predictions.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, metrology, measurement uncertainty, prediction error, bias, machine learning algorithms, probabilistic models, interlaboratory comparison, data analysis, data reliability, measurement of bias impact on predictions, improvement of model accuracy and reliability

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Authors: Ibrahim M. Alwehaibi

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Recently the windows of globalization weirdly open, which increase the trade between the Western countries and Muslim nations. Sales of goods contracts are one of the most common business transaction in the world. This commercial exchange has faced many obstacles. One of the most concerned obstacles is the conflicts between laws. Thus, United Nation created a Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods (CISG). Some of Islamic countries have ratified the CISG, while other Islamic countries have concerns about the feasibility of ratification of the CISG, and many businessmen have a concern of application of the convention. The concerns related to the conflict between CISG and Sharia, and the long debate about the success, ambiguity, and stability of the CISG. Therefore, this research will examine the feasibility of Muslim countries and Muslim businessmen to adopt the CISG by following steps: First, this research will introduce sharia Law (Islamic contracts law) and CISG and provide backgrounds of both laws. Second, this research will compare the provisions of CISG and Sharia and figuring out the conflicts and provide possible solutions for the conflicts. Third, this study will examine the advantages and disadvantages of adopting the CISG and examining the success of the CISG. Fourth, this study will explore the current situation in Islamic countries by taking Saudi Arabia as a case and explore how the application of Sharia law works and the possibility to enforce the CISG and explore the current practice of foreign Sales in Saudi Arabia. The research finds that there are some conflicts between CISG and Sharia Law. The most notable conflicts are interest and uncertainty in considerations. Also, this research finds that it seems that ratification of CISG is not beneficial for Muslim countries because the convention has not reached its goal which is uniformity of laws. Moreover, the CISG has been excluded and ignored by businessmen and some courts. Additionally, this research finds that it could be possible to enforce CISG in Saudi Arabia, provided that no conflict between the enforced provision and Sharia Law. This study is following the competitive and analysis methodologies to reach its findings. The researcher analyzes the provision of CISG and compares them with Sharia rules and finds the conflicts and compatibilities. In fact, CISG has 101 articles, so a comprehensive comparison of all articles in CISG with Sharia is difficult. Thus, in order to deeply analyze all aspects of this issue, this study will exclude some areas of contract which have been discussed by other researchers such as deliver of goods, conformity, and mirror image rules. The comparative section of this study will focus on the most concerned articles that conflict or doubtful of conflict with Sharia, which are interest, uncertainty, statute of limitation, specific performance, and pass of risk.

Keywords: Sharia, CISG, Contracts for International Sale of Goods, contracts, sale of goods, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Samira Alvandi

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In the context of the circular economy, production planning aims to eliminate waste and emissions and maximize resource efficiency. Historically production planning is challenged through arrays of uncertainty and complexity arising from the interdependence and variability of products, processes, and systems. Manufacturers worldwide are facing new challenges in tackling various environmental issues such as climate change, resource depletion, and land degradation. In managing the inherited complexity and uncertainty and yet maintaining profitability, the manufacturing sector is in need of a holistic framework that supports energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction schemes. The proposed framework addresses the current challenges and integrates simulation modeling with optimization for finding optimal machine-job allocation to maximize throughput and total energy consumption while minimizing lead time. The aluminium refinery facility in western Sydney, Australia, is used as an exemplar to validate the proposed framework.

Keywords: smart production planning, simulation-optimisation, energy aware capacity planning, energy intensive industries

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Authors: Hao Zhang, Hongyang Yu

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Scale uncertainty is a well-known challenging problem in visual SLAM. Because RGB-D sensor provides depth information, RGB-D SLAM improves this scale uncertainty problem. However, due to the limitation of physical hardware, the depth map output by RGB-D sensor usually contains a large area of missing depth values. These missing depth information affect the accuracy and robustness of RGB-D SLAM. In order to reduce these effects, this paper completes the missing area of the depth map output by RGB-D sensor and then fuses the completed dense depth map into ORB SLAM2. By adding the process of obtaining pixel-level dense depth maps, a better RGB-D visual SLAM algorithm is finally obtained. In the process of obtaining dense depth maps, a deep learning model of indoor scenes is adopted. Experiments are conducted on public datasets and real-world environments of indoor scenes. Experimental results show that the proposed SLAM algorithm has better robustness than ORB SLAM2.

Keywords: RGB-D, SLAM, dense depth, depth map

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Authors: Ameen Alshugaa, Abul Mansur Masih

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This paper sheds light on the economic impacts of political uncertainty caused by the civil uprisings that swept the Arab World and have been collectively known as the Arab Spring. Measuring documented effects of political uncertainty on regional stock market indices, we examine the impact of the Arab Spring on the volatility of stock markets in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Egypt, Lebanon, Jordon, United Arab Emirate, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. This analysis also permits testing the existence of financial contagion among equity markets in the MENA region during the Arab Spring. To capture the time-varying and multi-horizon nature of the evidence of volatility and contagion in the eight MENA stock markets, we apply two robust methodologies on consecutive data from November 2008 to March 2014: MGARCH-DCC, Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWT). Our results indicate two key findings. First, the discrepancies between volatile stock markets of countries directly impacted by the Arab Spring and countries that were not directly impacted indicate that international investors may still enjoy portfolio diversification and investment in MENA markets. Second, the lack of financial contagion during the Arab Spring suggests that there is little evidence of cointegration among MENA markets. Providing a general analysis of the economic situation and the investment climate in the MENA region during and after the Arab Spring, this study bear significant importance for policy makers, local and international investors, and market regulators.

Keywords: Portfolio Diversification , MENA Region , Stock Market Indices, MGARCH-DCC, Wavelet Analysis, CWT

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Authors: Desmond Agbolade Ademola

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This work aimed to introduce a theory, called Guided Energy Theory of a particle that answered questions that arise from quantum foundation, quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation such as: what is nature of wavefunction? Is mathematical formalism of wavefunction correct? Does wavefunction collapse during measurement? Do quantum physical entanglement and many world interpretations really exist? In addition, is there uncertainty in the physical reality of our nature as being concluded in the Quantum theory? We have been able to show by the fundamental analysis presented in this work that the way quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation describes nature is not correlated with physical reality. Because, we discovered amongst others that, (1) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally provides complete physical observable series of quantized measurement of a particle momentum, force, energy e.t.c. in a given distance and time.In contrast, quantum mechanics wavefunction describes that nature has inherited probabilistic and indeterministic physical quantities, resulting in unobservable physical quantities that lead to many worldinterpretation.(2) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally predicts that it is mathematically possible to determine precise quantized measurementof position and momentum of a particle simultaneously. Because, there is no uncertainty in nature; nature however naturally guides itself against uncertainty. Contrary to the conclusion in quantum mechanics theory that, it is mathematically impossible to determine the position and the momentum of a particle simultaneously. Furthermore, we have been able to show by this theory that, it is mathematically possible to determine quantized measurement of force acting on a particle simultaneously, which is not possible on the premise of quantum mechanics theory. (3) It is evidently shown by our theory that, guided energy does not collapse, only describes the lopsided nature of a particle behavior in motion. This pretty offers us insight on gradual process of engagement - convergence and disengagement – divergence of guided energy holders which further highlight the picture how wave – like behavior return to particle-like behavior and how particle – like behavior return to wave – like behavior respectively. This further proves that the particles’ behavior in motion is oscillatory in nature. The mathematical formalism of Guided energy theory shows that nature is certainty whereas the mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory shows that nature is absolutely probabilistics. In addition, the nature of wavefunction is the guided energy of the wave. In conclusion, the fundamental mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory is wrong.

Keywords: momentum, physical entanglement, wavefunction, uncertainty

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Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol

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We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making makes it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and statistical analysis of the results. We study the generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.

Keywords: inventory management, reinforcement learning, supply chain optimization, uncertainty

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Authors: Ahmad K. Jassim, Raheem Kh. Al-Subar

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Friction stir welding is a modern and an environmentally friendly solid state joining process used to joint relatively lighter family of materials. Recently, friction stir spot welding has been used instead of resistance spot welding which has received considerable attention from the automotive industry. It is environmentally friendly process that eliminated heat and pollution. In this research, friction stir spot welding has been used to study the possibility to weld AA1100 aluminum alloy sheet with 3 mm thickness by overlapping the edges of sheet as lap joint. The process was done using a drilling machine instead of milling machine. Different tool rotational speeds of 760, 1065, 1445, and 2000 RPM have been applied with manual and automatic compression to study their effect on the quality of welded joints. Heat generation, pressure applied, and depth of tool penetration have been measured during the welding process. The result shows that there is a possibility to weld AA1100 sheets; however, there is some surface defect that happened due to insufficient condition of welding. Moreover, the relationship between rotational speed, pressure, heat generation and tool depth penetration was created.

Keywords: friction, spot, stir, environmental, sustainable, AA1100 aluminum alloy

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Authors: Martin Juhas, Bohuslava Juhasova, Igor Halenar, Andrej Elias

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This article deals with the possibility of increasing efficiency, reliability and safety of the system for teledosimetric data collection management and their evaluation as a part of complex study for activity “Research of data collection, their measurement and evaluation with mobile and autonomous units” within project “Research of monitoring and evaluation of non-standard conditions in the area of nuclear power plants”. Possible weaknesses in existing system are identified. A study of available cluster solutions with possibility of their deploying to analysed system is presented.

Keywords: teledosimetric data, efficiency, reliability, safety, cluster solution

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Authors: Ling-Han Liu, Qian-Qian Yu, Xiang-Lin Gu

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In this paper, the fragility analysis of earthquake-strong wind concurrent hazards considering structural uncertainties was conducted. Eleven sets of structural uncertainty parameters were considered, and random structural models were generated using Latin hypercube sampling. The uncertainties in seismic ground motion and wind load inputs were incorporated, and the conditional failure probability of the structures was calculated. A 12-story concrete building was used as an example, with the IDR (Inter-story Drift Ratio) as the performance indicator. The failure probabilities under individual and multiple hazards were compared, along with a comparison of fragility analysis results with and without considering structural uncertainties. The numerical simulations show that including structural uncertainties increases the structural failure probability by 20%. The peak stress and strain of core-restrained concrete, the structural damping ratio, and the peak stress of unrestrained concrete are found to be decisive factors in the structural response.

Keywords: structural uncertainty, incremental dynamic analysis, multi-hazard fragility, latin hypercube sampling

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Authors: J. Kosikova, B. Vacenovska, M. Vyhnankova

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The paper reports on the subject of recycling and further use of secondary raw materials obtained from solar panels, which is becoming a very up to date topic in recent years. Recycling these panels is very difficult and complex, and the use of resulting secondary raw materials is still not fully resolved. Within the research carried out at the Brno University of Technology, new polymer materials used for industrial floors are being developed. Secondary raw materials are incorporated into these polymers as fillers. One of the tested filler materials was glass obtained from solar panels. The following text describes procedures and results of the tests that were performed on these materials, confirming the possibility of the use of solar panel glass in industrial polymer flooring systems.

Keywords: fillers, industrial floors, recycling, secondary raw material, solar panel

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Authors: Marta Fernández Olmos, Ana Gargallo Castel, Alice Salami

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The literature has shown the importance of studying the issue of business survival in highly competitive environments. In particular, the wine sector has certain characteristics that make it interesting to study factors that increase the possibility of wineries' survival, such as individual productivity, winery size, age, innovation efforts or the maturity of the industry itself, among others. Due to the importance of these factors, this research aims to analyze whether the possibility of wineries' survival increases if they are family businesses or if there is gender diversity in senior management. To this end, a nationwide survey was carried out. The sample was made up of wineries from all the Spanish appellations of origin, using this sample to analyze the survival of the diverse types of wineries according to the factors to be studied. The main results indicate that family wineries survive longer, suggesting that this may be due to the fact that the main objective of family wineries is the continuity of the business in the long term. Regarding gender diversity, wineries that have a female presence in top roles in management, adding gender diversity, survive more than those with a predominantly male presence. Based on these results, it is advisable to consider the importance of family businesses, especially in this type of sector. In addition, support should be provided for the inclusion of a female labor force to improve the possibility of survival.

Keywords: gender, family business, wine industry, survival

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Authors: Babak Kamrani, Nozar Kishi

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Stochastic catalog represents the events module of the earthquake loss estimation models. It includes series of events with different magnitudes and corresponding frequencies/probabilities. For the development of the stochastic catalog, random or uniform sampling methods are used to sample the events from the seismicity model. For covering all the Magnitude Frequency Distribution (MFD), a huge number of events should be generated for the above-mentioned methods. Characteristic Event (CE) method chooses the events based on the interest of the insurance industry. We divide the MFD of each source into bins. We have chosen the bins based on the probability of the interest by the insurance industry. First, we have collected the information for the available seismic sources. Sources are divided into Fault sources, subduction, and events without specific fault source. We have developed the MFD for each of the individual and areal source based on the seismicity of the sources. Afterward, we have calculated the CE magnitudes based on the desired probability. To develop the stochastic catalog, we have introduced uncertainty to the location of the events too.

Keywords: stochastic catalogue, earthquake loss, uncertainty, characteristic event

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

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As for any nuclear power plant, human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents. Thus, for accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze and to manage the influence of any factor which may raise the possibility of human errors. Among lots factors, stress has been reported to have significant influence on human performance. Stress level of a person may fluctuate over time. To handle the possibility over time, robust stress management program is required, especially in nuclear power plants. Therefore, to overcome the possibility of human errors, this study aimed to develop a stress management program as a part of Fitness-for-Duty (FFD) Program for the workers in nuclear power plants. The meaning of FFD might be somewhat different by research objectives, appropriate definition of FFD was accomplished in this study with special reference to human error prevention, and diverse stress factors were elicited for management of human error susceptibility. In addition, with consideration of conventional FFD management programs, appropriate tests and interventions were introduced over the whole employment cycle including selection and screening of workers, job allocation, job rotation, and disemployment as well as Employee-Assistance-Program (EAP). The results showed that most tools mainly concentrated their weights on common organizational factors such as Demands, Supports, and Relationships in sequence, which were referred as major stress factors.

Keywords: human error, accident prevention, work performance, stress, fatigue

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Authors: Ivana Lončarević, Biljana Pajin, Radovan Omorjan, Aleksandra Torbica, Danica Zarić, Jovana Maksimović

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Soybean seeds are the main source of lecithin in confectionery industry in Serbia and elsewhere. The extensive production of sunflower and rapeseed oil opens the possibility of using lecithin from these sources, as an alternative. Also, the development of functional foods dictates the use of edible fats with no undesirable trans fatty acids, obtained by fractionation and transesterification instead of common hydrogenation process. Crystallization properties of nontrans vegetable fat with the addition of soybean, sunflower and rapeseed lecithin were investigated in this paper. NMR technique was used for measuring the solid fat content (SFC) of fats at different temperatures, as well as for crystallization rate under static conditions. Also, the possibility of applying Gompertz function to define kinetics of crystallization was investigated.

Keywords: non-trans fat, lecithin, fatty acids, SFC

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, Michael Smithson, Jane E. Joseph, Christine Corbly, Ifat Levy

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Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities (“ambiguity”). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design, the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on both expected value and variance. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across subjects. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. This novel double dissociation indicates that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research.

Keywords: decision making, uncertainty, ambiguity, conflict, fMRI

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Authors: Gia Sirbiladze

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Route planning problems are among the activities that have the highest impact on logistical planning, transportation, and distribution because of their effects on efficiency in resource management, service levels, and client satisfaction. In extreme conditions, the difficulty of vehicle movement between different customers causes the imprecision of time of movement and the uncertainty of the feasibility of movement. A feasibility level of vehicle movement on the closed route of the disaster-streaking zone is defined for the construction of an objective function. Experts’ evaluations of the uncertain parameters in q-rung ortho-pair fuzzy numbers (q-ROFNs) are presented. A fuzzy bi-objective combinatorial optimization problem of fuzzy vehicle routine problem (FVRP) is constructed based on the technique of possibility theory. The FVRP is reduced to the bi-criteria partitioning problem for the so-called “promising” routes which were selected from the all-admissible closed routes. The convenient selection of the “promising” routes allows us to solve the reduced problem in real-time computing. For the numerical solution of the bi-criteria partitioning problem, the -constraint approach is used. The main results' support software is designed. The constructed model is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: q-rung ortho-pair fuzzy sets, facility location selection problem, multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem, partitioning problem

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Authors: Xueming Xu, Jiahao Liu, Jichao Li, Kewei Yang, Minghao Li, Bingfeng Ge

Abstract:

A combat system-of-systems (CSoS) comprises various types of functional combat entities that interact to meet corresponding task requirements in the present and future. Enhancing the resilience of CSoS holds significant military value in optimizing the operational planning process, improving military survivability, and ensuring the successful completion of operational tasks. Accordingly, this research proposes an integrated framework called CSoS resilience enhancement (CSoSRE) to enhance the resilience of CSoS from a recovery perspective. Specifically, this research presents a two-phase resilience optimization model to define a resilience optimization objective for CSoS. This model considers not only task baseline, recovery cost, and recovery time limit but also the characteristics of emergency recovery and comprehensive recovery. Moreover, the research extends it from the deterministic case to the stochastic case to describe the uncertainty in the recovery process. Based on this, a resilience-oriented recovery optimization method based on deep reinforcement learning (RRODRL) is proposed to determine a set of entities requiring restoration and their recovery sequence, thereby enhancing the resilience of CSoS. This method improves the deep Q-learning algorithm by designing a discount factor that adapts to changes in CSoS state at different phases, simultaneously considering the network’s structural and functional characteristics within CSoS. Finally, extensive experiments are conducted to test the feasibility, effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework. The obtained results offer useful insights for guiding operational recovery activity and designing a more resilient CSoS.

Keywords: combat system-of-systems, resilience optimization model, recovery optimization method, deep reinforcement learning, certainty and uncertainty

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Authors: Julius Ilawe Osayi, Peter Osifo

Abstract:

Solid waste disposal, such as used tires is a global challenge as well as energy crisis due to rising energy demand amidst price uncertainty and depleting fossil fuel reserves. Therefore, the effectiveness of pyrolysis as a disposal method that can transform used tires into liquid fuel and other end-products has made the process attractive to researchers. Although used tires have been converted to liquid fuel using pyrolysis, there is the need to improve on the liquid fuel properties. Hence, this paper reports the investigation of zeolite NaY synthesized from kaolin, a locally abundant soil material in the Benin metropolis as a suitable catalyst and its effect on the properties of pyrolytic oil produced from used tires. The pyrolysis process was conducted for a range of 1 to 10 wt.% of catalyst concentration to used tire at a temperature of 600 oC, a heating rate of 15oC/min and particle size of 6mm. Although no significant increase in pyrolytic oil yield was observed compared to the previously investigated non-catalytic pyrolysis of a used tire. However, the Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR); and Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) characterization results revealed the pyrolytic oil to possess an improved physicochemical and fuel properties alongside valuable industrial chemical species. This confirms the possibility of transforming kaolin into a catalyst suitable for improved fuel properties of the liquid fraction obtainable from thermal cracking of hydrocarbon materials.

Keywords: catalytic pyrolysis, fossil fuel, kaolin, pyrolytic oil, used tyres, Zeolite NaY

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Shreya Banerjee, Prasanta K. Panigrahi

Abstract:

The three-way distributive entanglement is shown to be related to the parallelism of vectors. Using a measurement-based approach a set of 2−dimensional vectors is formed, representing the post-measurement states of one of the parties. These vectors originate at the same point and have an angular distance between them. The area spanned by a pair of such vectors is a measure of the entanglement of formation. This leads to a geometrical manifestation of the 3−tangle in 2−dimensions, from inequality in the area which generalizes for n− qubits to reveal that the n− tangle also has a planar structure. Quantifying the genuine n−party entanglement in every 1|(n − 1) bi-partition it is shown that the genuine n−way entanglement does not manifest in n− tangle. A new quantity geometrically similar to 3−tangle is then introduced that represents the genuine n− way entanglement. Extending the formalism to 3− qutrits, the nonlocality without entanglement can be seen to arise from a condition under which the post-measurement state vectors of a separable state show parallelism. A connection to nontrivial sum uncertainty relation analogous to Maccone and Pati uncertainty relation is then presented using decomposition of post-measurement state vectors along parallel and perpendicular direction of the pre-measurement state vectors. This study opens a novel way to understand multiparty entanglement in qubit and qudit systems.

Keywords: Geometry of quantum entanglement, Multipartite and distributive entanglement, Parallelism of vectors , Tangle

Procedia PDF Downloads 155