Search results for: fisheries support estimate

Authors: Kristiana Haryanti, Theresia Dwi Hastuti, Agustine Eva Maria Soekesi

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Entrepreneurship is an important topic today that is widely discussed in the business world. The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated all businesses in the world, especially businesses at the micro-level. This study tries to prove the relationship between job satisfaction of micro-level business owners and family social support for their resilience. The respondents of this study amounted to 58 entrepreneurs. The results of this study indicate that there is a relationship between job satisfaction and social support with entrepreneurial resilience in continuing the family business.

Keywords: family business, family social support, job satisfaction, resilience

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Ishfaq Ahmad, Yejuan Wang, Muhammad Salam

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Distribution models of the wind speed data are essential to assess the potential wind speed energy because it decreases the uncertainty to estimate wind energy output. Therefore, before performing a detailed potential energy analysis, the precise distribution model for data relating to wind speed must be found. In this research, material from numerous criteria goodness-of-fits, such as Kolmogorov Simonov, Anderson Darling statistics, Chi-Square, root mean square error (RMSE), AIC and BIC were combined finally to determine the wind speed of the best-fitted distribution. The suggested method collectively makes each criterion. This method was useful in a circumstance to fitting 14 distribution models statistically with the data of wind speed together at four sites in Pakistan. The consequences show that this method provides the best source for selecting the most suitable wind speed statistical distribution. Also, the graphical representation is consistent with the analytical results. This research presents three estimation methods that can be used to calculate the different distributions used to estimate the wind. In the suggested MLM, MOM, and MLE the third-order moment used in the wind energy formula is a key function because it makes an important contribution to the precise estimate of wind energy. In order to prove the presence of the suggested MOM, it was compared with well-known estimation methods, such as the method of linear moment, and maximum likelihood estimate. In the relative analysis, given to several goodness-of-fit, the presentation of the considered techniques is estimated on the actual wind speed evaluated in different time periods. The results obtained show that MOM certainly provides a more precise estimation than other familiar approaches in terms of estimating wind energy based on the fourteen distributions. Therefore, MOM can be used as a better technique for assessing wind energy.

Keywords: wind-speed modeling, goodness of fit, maximum likelihood method, linear moment

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Authors: Therese Scali

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Couple separations and divorces seem to be commonplace events. However, their frequency does not reduce their impact. Indeed, the adverse effects of parental divorce on children have been well documented. Thus, supporting the children from divorced families is a key concern. Several preventive interventions have been developed for children of divorced parents, such as Children’s Support Group. The present paper aims at presenting the program that has been created in Liege (Belgium). The setting and the tools will be presented. This Children’s Support Group is based on psychoeducational and systemic principles, art-therapy, and aims at acquiring coping skills and seeking social support. Also, the effectiveness of the program will be discussed. Results show that after parental divorce, a group intervention for children can be efficacious in promoting children’s well-being and parent-child communication. This paper contributes to enrich the understanding of children’s needs and to highlight the existence and efficacy of a program that helps them overcome the difficulties of divorce.

Keywords: art-therapy, children’s support group, divorce, efficacy, separation

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Authors: Joann Douziech

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Individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) possess characteristics that present both challenges and gifts. Individuals with IDD require and are worthy of intentional, strategic, and specialized support throughout their lifespan to ensure optimum quality-of-life outcomes. The current global advocacy movement advancing the rights of individuals with IDD emphasizes a high degree of choice over life decisions. For some individuals, this degree of choice results in a variety of negative health and well-being outcomes. Improving the quality of life outcomes requires the combination of a commitment to the rights of the individual with a responsibility to provide support and choice commensurate with individual capacity. A belief that individuals with IDD are capable of learning and they are worthy of being taught provides the foundation for a holistic model of support throughout their lifespan. This model is based on three pillars of engineering the environment, promoting skill development and maintenance, and staff support. In an ever-changing world, supporting quality of life requires attention to moments, phases, and changes in stages throughout the lifespan. Balancing these complexities with strategic, responsive, and dynamic interventions enhances the quality of life of individuals with ID throughout their lifespan.

Keywords: achieving optimum quality of life, comprehensive support, lifespan approach, philosophy and pedagogy

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Authors: Petra Palic, Maruska Vizek

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We provide an in-depth analysis of interdependence of asset returns and volatilities in developed and developing countries. The analysis is split into three parts. In the first part, we use multivariate GARCH model in order to provide stylized facts on cross-market volatility spillovers. In the second part, we use a generalized vector autoregressive methodology developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) in order to estimate separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers among sovereign bond, equity, foreign exchange and commodity markets. In particular, our analysis is focused on cross-market return, and volatility spillovers in 19 developed and developing countries. In order to estimate named spillovers, we use daily data from 2008 to 2017. In the third part of the analysis, we use a generalized vector autoregressive framework in order to estimate total and directional volatility spillovers. We use the same daily data span for one developed and one developing country in order to characterize daily volatility spillovers across stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodities markets.

Keywords: cross-market spillovers, sovereign bond markets, equity markets, value at risk (VAR)

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Authors: Tomas Kos

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An increasing body of research has explored patterns of interaction and peer support among young learners. Although some studies suggest that young learners can collaborate and support each other, other studies indicate that young learners may lack the ability to work together and support one another when interacting on classroom tasks. Moreover, despite the claims that peer collaboration is conducive to learning, studies have not paid enough attention to the “how” to enhance peer collaboration on classroom tasks. To fill this gap, this “how-to” article proposes that teaching young learners how to work together is a powerful pedagogical tool that can greatly improve collaborative behavior and a sense of mutuality among young learners. This article will pay particular attention to primary schools and the context of English as a foreign language. It will first review literature related to patterns of interaction and peer support conducted in the cognitive and sociocultural framework. It will then address what it actually means to collaborate. At the heart of the article, it will discuss some practical pedagogical ideas for language teachers, which entail teaching collaborative principles and strategies that will help their students to support each other and engage in communication with each other.

Keywords: young learners, peer collaboration, peer interaction, peer support, patterns of interaction

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

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The decades after the end of the second War provide evidence that infrastructures investments contibute to economic development, on terms of productivity and income growth. In order to force productivity and increase competitiveness the financing of large transport infrastructure projects are on the top of the agenda in strategic planning process. Such a decision may take form some days to some decades and stakeholders as well as decision makers need tools in order to estimate the economic impact on natioanl economy of such an investment. The key question in such decisions is if the effects caused by the new infrastructure could be able to boost economic development on one hand, and create new jobs and activities on the other. This paper deals with the review of estimation of the mega transport infrastructure projects economic effects in economy.

Keywords: economic impact, transport infrastructure, strategic planning, decision making

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Authors: Lauren A. Bailey, Amber R. Childs, Nicola C. James, Murray I. Duncan, Alexander Winkler, Warren M. Potts

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Changes in behaviour and physiology are the most important responses of marine life to anthropogenic impacts such as climate change and over-fishing. Behavioural changes (such as a shift in distribution or changes in phenology) can ensure that a species remains in an environment suited for its optimal physiological performance. However, if marine life is unable to shift their distribution, they are reliant on physiological adaptation (either by broadening their metabolic curves to tolerate a range of stressors or by shifting their metabolic curves to maximize their performance at extreme stressors). However, since there are links between fish physiology and behaviour, changes to either of these traits may have reciprocal interactions. This paper reviews the current knowledge of the links between the behaviour and physiology of fishes, discusses these in the context of exploitation and climate change, and makes recommendations for future research needs. The review revealed that our understanding of the links between fish behaviour and physiology is rudimentary. However, both are hypothesized to be linked to stress responses along the hypothalamic pituitary axis. The link between physiological capacity and behaviour is particularly important as both determine the response of an individual to a changing climate and are under selection by fisheries. While it appears that all types of capture fisheries are likely to reduce the adaptive potential of fished populations to climate stressors, angling, which is primarily associated with recreational fishing, may induce fission of natural populations by removing individuals with bold behavioural traits and potentially the physiological traits required to facilitate behavioural change. Future research should focus on assessing how the links between physiological capacity and behaviour influence catchability, the response to climate change drivers, and post-release recovery. The plasticity of phenotypic traits should be examined under a range of stressors of differing intensity in several species and life history stages. Future studies should also assess plasticity (fission or fusion) in the phenotypic structuring of social hierarchy and how this influences habitat selection. Ultimately, to fully understand how physiology is influenced by the selective processes driven by fisheries, long-term monitoring of the physiological and behavioural structure of fished populations, their fitness, and catch rates are required.

Keywords: climate change, metabolic shifts, over-fishing, phenotypic plasticity, stress response

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Authors: Wieke Ellen Bouwes

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This study aims to unravel which factors enhance accessibility of video consultations (VCs) for patients with low digital literacy. Thirteen in-depth interviews with patients, hospital employees, eHealth experts, and digital support organizations were held. Patients with low digital literacy received in-home support during real-time video consultations and are observed during the set-up of these consultations. Key findings highlight the importance of patient acceptance, emphasizing video consultations benefits and avoiding standardized courses. The lack of a uniform video consultation system across healthcare providers poses a barrier. Familiarity with support organizations – to support patients in usage of digital tools - among healthcare practitioners enhances accessibility. Moreover, considerations regarding the Dutch General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) law influence support patients receive. Also, provider readiness to use video consultations influences patient access. Further, alignment between learning styles and support methods seems to determine abilities to learn how to use video consultations. Future research could delve into tailored learning styles and technological solutions for remote access to further explore effectiveness of learning methods.

Keywords: video consultations, digital literacy skills, effectiveness of support, intra- and inter-organizational relationships, patient acceptance of video consultations

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Authors: Nadia Jurkovic, Sarven McLinton, Alyson Crozier, Amber Mosewich, Ed O'Connor

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Retiring from elite sport can have detrimental effects on the mental health and life satisfaction of retired elite athletes. To aid in this transition, sporting organisations use retirement interventions. The aim of this study is to understand the experience of elite sport retirement from a holistic perspective, exploring the experiences of retiring athletes, retired athletes, and sport support staff. A secondary aim is used to uncover any recommendations both retiring/retired athletes and sport support staff suggest towards improving retirement programs or interventions. A total of N=15 participants took part in semi-structured interviews to explore their experiences with sport retirement. Retiring and retired elite athletes were asked about how they felt during their transition into retirement, and sport support staff were asked about their experience working with retiring athletes. Data collection and iterative qualitative analysis are still ongoing; however, it is anticipated that the final key themes to emerge will include isolation, identity loss, and lack of support, with varying sub-themes such as organisational support and family support. Relationships across and within themes will be explored within the study. The anticipated findings present retiring from elite sports as a challenging life and career transition; however, current support and resources for elite athletes are not addressing the core difficulties experienced by retiring elite athletes. The findings of this study will inform future development of new co-designed elite sport retirement interventions.

Keywords: elite athlete, retired elite athlete, retirement interventions, transition into retirement, interviews

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Authors: I. Ketut Yoga Adityawira, Putu Ayu Novia Viorica, Komang Rahayu Indrawati

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In addition to work and take care of the family, Balinese women also have a role to participate in social activities in Bali. So this will have an impact on the quality of work life of Balinese women. One way to reduce the impact of the fulfillment of the role of Balinese women namely through emotional support. The aim of this research is to find out the effect of emotional support towards the quality of work life on Balinese working women. Data were retrieved by quasi-experimental method with pretest-posttest design. Data were analyzed by Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) through SPSS 17.0 for Windows. The number of subjects in this research is 30 people with the criteria: Balinese Women, aged 27 to 55 years old, have a minimum of two years experience of work and has been married. The analysis showed that there is no effect of emotional support towards the quality of work life on Balinese working women, with information there is no significant of probability value p = 0.304 (p > 0.05).

Keywords: Balinese women, emotional support, quality of work life, working women

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Authors: Adriana Martínez-Arias, John Josephraj Selvaraj, Luis Octavio González-Salcedo

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In the Colombian Pacific, Dorado fish (Coryphaena hippurus L.) fisheries is of great commercial interest. However, its habitat and fisheries may be affected by climatic change especially by the actual increase in sea surface temperature. Hence, it is of interest to study the dynamics of these species fishing zones. In this study, we developed Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models to predict Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) as an indicator of species abundance. The model was based on four oceanographic variables (Chlorophyll a, Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Anomaly and Bathymetry) derived from satellite data. CPUE datasets for model training and cross-validation were obtained from logbooks of commercial fishing vessel. Sea surface Temperature for Colombian Pacific were projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CPUE maps were created. Our results indicated that an increase in sea surface temperature reduces the potential fishing zones of this species in the Colombian Pacific. We conclude that ANN is a reliable tool for simulation of climate change effects on the potential fishing zones. This research opens a future agenda for other species that have been affected by climate change.

Keywords: climatic change, artificial neural networks, dorado fish, CPUE

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Authors: Frappi Sofia, Nicolas Pilcher, Sander DenHaring, Royale Hardenstine, Luis Silva, Collin Williams, Mattie Rodrigue, Vincent Pieriborne, Mohammed Qurban, Carlos M. Duarte

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Nowadays, elasmobranch populations are disappearing at a dangerous rate, mainly due to overexploitation, extensive fisheries, as well as climate change. The decline of these species can trigger a cascade effect, which may eventually lead to detrimental impacts on local ecosystems. The Elasmobranch in the Red Sea is facing one of the highest risks of extinction, mainly due to unregulated fisheries activities. Thus, it is of paramount importance to assess their current distribution and unveil their environmental preferences in order to improve conservation measures. Important data have been collected throughout the whole red Sea during the Red Sea Decade Expedition (RSDE) to achieve this goal. Elasmobranch sightings were gathered through the use of submarines, remotely operated underwater vehicles (ROV), scuba diving operations, and helicopter surveys. Over a period of 5 months, we collected 891 sightings, 52 with submarines, 138 with the ROV, 67 with the scuba diving teams, and 634 from helicopters. In total, we observed 657 and 234 individuals from the superorder Batoidea and Selachimorpha, respectively. The most common shark encountered was Iago omanensis, a deep-water shark of the order Carcharhiniformes. To each sighting, data on temperature, salinity density, and dissolved oxygen were integrated to reveal favorable conditions for each species. Additionally, an extensive literature review on elasmobranch research in the Eastern Red Sea has been carried out in order to obtain more data on local populations and to be able to highlight patterns of their distribution.

Keywords: distribution, elasmobranchs, habitat, rays, red sea, sharks

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Authors: Ketan Tamirisa, Kathleen P. Tebb

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In the U.S., annually, there are over 1 million pregnancies in teenagers and most (85%) are unintended. The need for proactive prevention measures is imperative to support adolescents with their pregnancy prevention and family planning goals. To date, there is limited research examining the extent to which support from a sexual partner(s) influences contraceptive use. To address this gap, this study assessed the relationship between sexually active adolescents, sex-assigned birth as female, and their perceived support from their sexual partner(s) about their contraceptive use in the last three months. Baseline data from sexually active adolescent females, between 13-19 years who were not currently using a long-acting contraceptive device, were recruited from 32 school-based health centers (SBHCs) in seven states in the U.S. as part of a larger study to evaluate Health-E You/ Salud iTuTM, a web-based contraceptive decision support tool. Fisher’s exact test assessed the cross-sectional association between perceived sexual partner support of contraceptive use in the past three months (felt no support, felt little support, and felt a lot of support), and current use of non-barrier contraception. A total of 91 sexually active adolescent females were eligible and completed the baseline survey. The mean age was 16.7 and nearly half (49.3%) were Hispanic/Latina. Most (85.9%) indicated it was very important to avoid becoming pregnant. A total of 60 participants (65.9%) reported use of non-barrier contraception. Of these, most used birth control pills (n=26), followed by Depo-Provera injection (n=12), patch (n=1), and ring (n=1). Most of the participants (80.2%) indicated that they perceived a lot of support from their partners and 19.8% reported no or little support. Among those reporting a lot of support, 69.9% (51/73) reported current use of non-barrier contraception compared to 50% (9/18) who felt no/little support and reported contraceptive use. This difference approached but did not reach statistical significance (p=0.096). Results from this preliminary data indicate that many adolescents who are coming in for care at SBHCs are at risk of unintended pregnancy. Many participants also reported a lot of support from their sexual partner(s) to use contraception. While the associations only approached significance, this is likely due to the small sample size. This and future research can better understand this association to inform interventions aimed at sexual partners to strengthen education and social support, increase healthcare accessibility, and ultimately reduce rates of unintended pregnancy.

Keywords: adolescents, contraception, pregnancy, SBHCs, sexual partners

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Authors: Yonguk L. Park, Jeonghoon Seol

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The Republic of Korea is facing a special situation as it is the only divided country in the world. Even though Korea is facing such unstable circumstances in terms of a foreign diplomacy situation, Korea is one of the countries who, in concern for world peace, have been sending troops overseas. The troops spend more than a year at sea and may suffer from different types of psychological disorders. The purpose of this study is to try to find factors that promote psychological well-being of troops and improve their psychological health. We investigated the effect of dispatch sailors’ occupational calling and social support on anxiety before they are sent overseas and also examined the interaction between occupational calling and social support on anxiety. One hundred thirty-eight dispatched sailors participated in this study, wherein they completed the Korean calling scale, multifaceted social support scale, and anxiety scale –Y form. We analyzed the data using hierarchical regression. The results showed that after controlling gender, marital status, and the previous experiences of dispatch, those who have a higher level of occupational calling and perceived social support experienced a low level of anxiety before they are sent (β = -.276, β = -.395). Furthermore, we examined the interaction effect. If the troops’ perceived social support is high, they experience a low level of anxiety—even if they have a low level of occupational calling. This study confirms that both occupational calling and social support reduce the level of anxiety of the troops. The research provides meaningful information in understanding those who serve in the Navy’s distinctive situations and contributes to improving their psychological well-being. We suggest that sailors undergo training to have a higher occupational calling and healthy relationships with friends, families, and co-workers who provide emotional and social support.

Keywords: navy, occupational calling, social support, anxiety

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Authors: Cristina Galván-Fernández, Elena Barberà, Jingjing Zhang

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In recent years, MOOCs have been in the spotlight for its high drop-out rates, which potentially impact on the quality of the learning experience. This study attempts to explore how learning support can be used to keep student retention, and in turn to improve the quality of learning in MOOCs. In this study, the patterns of learning support were identified from a total of 4202592 units of video sessions, clickstream data of 25600 students, and 382 threads generated in 10 forums (optional and mandatory) in five different types of MOOCs (e.g. conventional MOOCs, professional MOOCs, and informal MOOCs). The results of this study have shown a clear correlation between the types of MOOCs, the design framework of the MOOCs, and the learning support. The patterns of tutor-peer interaction are identified, and are found to be highly correlated with student retention in all five types of MOOCs. In addition, different patterns of ‘good’ students were identified, which could potentially inform the instruction design of MOOCs.

Keywords: higher education, learning support, MOOC, retention

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Authors: R. R. Dewi Rahmawaty Aktyani Putri, Earmporn Thongkrajai, Dedy Purwito

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There were many instruments have been developed to assess social support which has the different dimension in breast cancer patients. The Issue of measurement is a challenge to determining the component of dimensional concept, defining the unit of measurement, and establishing the validity and reliability of the measurement. However, the instruments where need to know how much support which obtained and perceived among women with breast cancer who undergone chemotherapy which it can help nurses to prevent of non-adherence in chemotherapy. This study aimed to measure the reliability of BC-SSAS instrument among 30 Indonesian women with breast cancer aged 18 years and above who undergone chemotherapy for six cycles in the oncological unit of Outpatient Department (OPD), Margono Soekardjo Hospital, Central Java, Indonesia. Data were collected during October to December 2015 by using modified the Breast Cancer Social Support Assessment (BC-SSAS). The Cronbach’s alpha analysis was carried out to measure internal consistency for reliability test of BC-SSAS instrument. This study used five experts for content validity index. The results showed that for content validity, I-CVI was 0.98 and S-CVI was 0.98; Cronbach’s alpha value was 0.971 and the Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for the subscales were high, with 0.903 for emotional support, 0.865 for informational support, 0.901 for tangible support, 0.897 for appraisal support and 0.884 for positive interaction support. The results confirmed that the BC-SSAS instrument has high reliability. BC-SSAS instruments were reliable and can be used in health care services to measure the social support received and perceived among women with breast cancer who undergone chemotherapy so that preventive interventions can be developed and the quality of health services can be improved.

Keywords: BC-SSAS, women with breast cancer, chemotherapy, Indonesia

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Authors: Shauma L. Tamba

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This study examined whether morality is the most important aspect in actual behavior. The prediction was that people tend to behave in line with moral (as compared to competence) norms, especially when such norms are presented by their ingroup. The actual behavior that was tested was support for a military intervention without a mandate from the UN. In addition, this study also examined whether identification with the ingroup and religion moderated the effect of group and norm on support for the norm that was prescribed by their ingroup. The prediction was that those who identified themselves higher with the ingroup moral would show a higher support for the norm. Furthermore, the prediction was also that those who have religion would show a higher support for the norm in the ingroup moral rather than competence. In an online survey, participants were asked to read a scenario in which a military intervention without a mandate was framed as either the moral (but stupid) or smart (but immoral) thing to do by members of their own (ingroup) or another (outgroup) society. This study found that when people identified themselves with the smart (but immoral) norm, they showed a higher support for the norm. However, when people identified themselves with the moral (but stupid) norm, they tend to show a lesser support towards the norm. Most of the results in the study did not support the predictions. Possible explanations and implications are discussed.

Keywords: morality, competence, ingroup identification, religion, group norm

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Authors: Ahmad Zulfahmi Mohd Kamaruzaman, Mohd Ismail Ibrahim, Ariffin Marzuki Mokhtar, Maizun Mohd Zain, Saiful Nazri Satiman, Mohd Najib Majdi Yaacob

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Background: Aftermath any patient safety incidents, the involved healthcare providers possibly sustained second victim-related distress (second victim distress and reduced their professional efficacy), with subsequent negative work-related outcomes or vice versa cultivating resilience. This study aimed to investigate the factors affecting negative work-related outcomes and resilience, with the triad of support; colleague, supervisor, and institutional support as the hypothetical mediators. Methods: This was a cross sectional study recruiting a total of 733 healthcare providers from three tertiary care in Kelantan, Malaysia. Three steps of hierarchical linear regression were developed for each outcome; negative work-related outcomes and resilience. Then, four multiple mediator models of support triad were analyzed. Results: Second victim distress, professional efficacy, and the support triad contributed significantly for each regression model. In the pathway of professional efficacy on each negative work-related outcomes and resilience, colleague support partially mediated the relationship. As for second victim distress on negative work related outcomes, colleague and supervisor support were the partial mediator, and on resilience; all support triad also produced a similar effect. Conclusion: Second victim distress, professional efficacy, and the support triad influenced the relationship with the negative work-related outcomes and resilience. Support triad as the mediators ameliorated the effect in between and explained the urgency of having good support for recovery post encountering patient safety incidents.

Keywords: second victims, patient safety incidents, hierarchical linear regression, mediation, support

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Authors: Lotha Valan, Åsa Hörnsten, Ulf Isaksson

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Introduction: Sweden has a national child health care program (CHCP) where all parents are offered support to raise their children and support them for lifelong health. A systematic review concludes that there is a request for guidance in using the internet effectively for the health purposes of their children. However, a study about internet use among young mothers means that the internet is not always easy to navigate for parents, and they may need support. To fill this gap and develop a digital channel to complement the child health care (CHC) for the support of parents of children within CHC, there is a demand to investigate parents' needs in relation to this purpose. Methods: The study had a qualitative approach using focus group interviews with parents. The interview data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Results: The main theme highlights that parents expected that a digital support channel would be something that might strengthen them toward independence concerning the care of their children in a positive way. However, they also felt that they needed personal support and that relationships with other parents and the child health care nurse were significant and meaningful. Another parental desire that emerged was that a future digital channel would facilitate and simplify access to care, and they suggested having both planned and urgent times available for parents to book. The digital channel was expected to make this possible and be a good complement to the physical contacts the traditional child healthcare currently offers. Discussion/conclusions: The parents in this study believed that digital solutions could increase their parental power in relation to the care of their children. Examples were given as nurse-led parent groups where parents with similar problems and experiences around their children could support each other and were expected to strengthen them over time. The parents stressed that a planned digital support channel also needs satisfactory solutions for both contact and response. It was suggested that there should be bookable times for both planned and urgent needs and also the possibility of rescheduling visits.

Keywords: child healthcare, parents, digital support, nursing

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Authors: Mesias Alfeus, Kirsty Fitzhenry, Alessia Lederer

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The present paper provides empirical studies to estimate defaultable bonds in the South African financial market. The main goal is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. Multi-dimensional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered. Results show that default risk increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the CIR model with jumps exhibits a better performance.

Keywords: default intensity, unobservable state variables, CIR, α-CIR, extended kalman filtering

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Authors: Manel Youssef, Lotfi Belkacem

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This paper employs multivariate long memory GARCH models to simultaneously estimate mean and conditional variance spillover effects between oil prices and different financial markets. Since different financial assets are traded based on these market sector returns, it’s important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism over time and across these series in order to make optimal portfolio allocation decisions. We examine weekly returns from January 1, 2003 to November 30, 2012 and find evidence of significant transmission of shocks and volatilities between oil prices and some of the examined financial markets. The findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by investors.

Keywords: oil prices, stock indices returns, oil volatility, contagion, DCC-multivariate (FI) GARCH

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Authors: Sami Houry

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Complex systems exhibit universal characteristics as they near a tipping point. Among them are common generic early warning signals which precede critical transitions. These signals include: critical slowing down in which the rate of recovery from perturbations decreases over time; an increase in the variance of the state variable; an increase in the skewness of the state variable; an increase in the autocorrelations of the state variable; flickering between different states; and an increase in spatial correlations over time. The presence of the signals has management implications, as the identification of the signals near the tipping point could allow management to identify intervention points. Despite the applications of the generic early warning signals in various scientific fields, such as fisheries, ecology and finance, a review of literature did not identify any applications that address the program student withdrawal problem at the undergraduate distance universities. This area could benefit from the application of generic early warning signals as the program withdrawal rate amongst distance students is higher than the program withdrawal rate at face-to-face conventional universities. This research specifically assessed the generic early warning signals through an intensive case study of undergraduate program student withdrawal at a Canadian distance university. The university is non-cohort based due to its system of continuous course enrollment where students can enroll in a course at the beginning of every month. The assessment of the signals was achieved through the comparison of the incidences of generic early warning signals among students who withdrew or simply became inactive in their undergraduate program of study, the true positives, to the incidences of the generic early warning signals among graduates, the false positives. This was achieved through significance testing. Research findings showed support for the signal pertaining to the rise in flickering which is represented in the increase in the student’s non-pass rates prior to withdrawing from a program; moderate support for the signals of critical slowing down as reflected in the increase in the time a student spends in a course; and moderate support for the signals on increase in autocorrelation and increase in variance in the grade variable. The findings did not support the signal on the increase in skewness of the grade variable. The research also proposes a new signal based on the fractal-like characteristic of student behavior. The research also sought to extend knowledge by investigating whether the emergence of a program withdrawal status is self-similar or fractal-like at multiple levels of observation, specifically the program level and the course level. In other words, whether the act of withdrawal at the program level is also present at the course level. The findings moderately supported self-similarity as a potential signal. Overall, the assessment of the signals suggests that the signals, with the exception with the increase of skewness, could be utilized as a predictive management tool and potentially add one more tool, the fractal-like characteristic of withdrawal, as an additional signal in addressing the student program withdrawal problem.

Keywords: critical transitions, fractals, generic early warning signals, program student withdrawal

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Authors: Divvela Vishnu Sai Kumar, Deepak Arora, Sheenu Rizvi

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Forecasting a cyclone through satellite images consists of the estimation of the intensity of the cyclone and predicting it before a cyclone comes. This research work can help people to take safety measures before the cyclone comes. The prediction of the intensity of a cyclone is very important to save lives and minimize the damage caused by cyclones. These cyclones are very costliest natural disasters that cause a lot of damage globally due to a lot of hazards. Authors have proposed five different CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) models that estimate the intensity of cyclones through INSAT-3D IR images. There are a lot of techniques that are used to estimate the intensity; the best model proposed by authors estimates intensity with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 10.02 kts.

Keywords: estimating cyclone intensity, deep learning, convolution neural network, prediction models

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Authors: Rosemary E. Huntriss, Lucy Jones

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Obesity and excess weight continue to be significant health problems in England. Traditional weight management programmes offer face-to-face support or group education. Remote care is recognised as a viable means of support; however, its effectiveness has not previously been evaluated in a tier 3 weight management setting. This service evaluation explored the effectiveness of online coaching, telephone support, and face-to-face support as optional management strategies within a tier 3 weight management programme. Outcome data were collected for adults with a BMI ≥ 45 or ≥ 40 with complex comorbidity who were referred to a Tier 3 weight management programme from January 2018 and had been discharged before October 2018. Following an initial 45-minute consultation with a specialist weight management dietitian, patients were offered a choice of follow-up support in the form of online coaching supported by an app (8 x 15 minutes coaching), face-to-face or telephone appointments (4 x 30 minutes). All patients were invited to a final 30-minute face-to-face assessment. The planned intervention time was between 12 and 24 weeks. Patients were offered access to adjunct face-to-face or telephone psychological support. One hundred and thirty-nine patients were referred into the programme from January 2018 and discharged before October 2018. One hundred and twenty-four patients (89%) attended their initial assessment. Out of those who attended their initial assessment, 110 patients (88.0%) completed more than half of the programme and 77 patients (61.6%) completed all sessions. The average length of the completed programme (all sessions) was 17.2 (SD 4.2) weeks. Eighty-five (68.5%) patients were coached online, 28 (22.6%) patients were supported face-to-face support, and 11 (8.9%) chose telephone support. Two patients changed from online coaching to face-to-face support due to personal preference and were included in the face-to-face group for analysis. For those with data available (n=106), average weight loss across the programme was 4.85 (SD 3.49)%; average weight loss was 4.70 (SD 3.19)% for online coaching, 4.83 (SD 4.13)% for face-to-face support, and 6.28 (SD 4.15)% for telephone support. There was no significant difference between weight loss achieved with face-to-face vs. online coaching (4.83 (SD 4.13)% vs 4.70 (SD 3.19) (p=0.87) or face-to-face vs. remote support (online coaching and telephone support combined) (4.83 (SD 4.13)% vs 4.85 (SD 3.30)%) (p=0.98). Remote support has been shown to be as effective as face-to-face support provided by a dietitian in the short-term within a tier 3 weight management setting. The completion rates were high compared with another tier 3 weight management services suggesting that offering remote support as an option may improve completion rates within a weight management service.

Keywords: dietitian, digital health, obesity, weight management

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Abdullah A. AlShaher

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In this paper, we demonstrate how regression curves can be used to recognize 2D non-rigid handwritten shapes. Each shape is represented by a set of non-overlapping uniformly distributed landmarks. The underlying models utilize 2^nd order of polynomials to model shapes within a training set. To estimate the regression models, we need to extract the required coefficients which describe the variations for a set of shape class. Hence, a least square method is used to estimate such modes. We then proceed by training these coefficients using the apparatus Expectation Maximization algorithm. Recognition is carried out by finding the least error landmarks displacement with respect to the model curves. Handwritten isolated Arabic characters are used to evaluate our approach.

Keywords: character recognition, regression curves, handwritten Arabic letters, expectation maximization algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Hamna Hamid, Kashmala Zaman

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between self-efficacy, resilience and social support among clinical psychologists, counselors and teachers of special schools. The study also assesses the gender differences on self-efficacy, resilience, social support and vicarious trauma and also vicarious trauma differences among three professions i.e. clinical psychologists, counselors and teachers of special schools. A sample of 150 women and 97 men were handed out a set questionnaire to complete: General Self-Efficacy Scale, Brief Resilience Scale, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support and Vicarious Trauma Scale. Results showed that there is significant negative correlation between self-efficacy, resilience and vicarious trauma. Women experiences higher levels of vicarious trauma as compared to men. While clinical psychologists and counselors experience higher levels of vicarious trauma as compared to teachers of special schools. Moderation effect of social support is not significant towards resilience and vicarious trauma.

Keywords: self-efficacy, resilience, vicarious trauma, social-support

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Emily J. Winnall

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It is understood that China has the largest population of people living with dementia in the world; however, little is known about this culturally diverse community, specifically the Chinese Communities, which has been poorly represented in past British research Literature. Further research is needed to gain a greater understanding of the support needs of caregivers caring for a relative living with dementia from the Chinese background. Dementia care and caregivers in Chinese communities are less investigated. The study is a case study of two Chinese community centers and one housing support service. Semi-structured one-to-one interviews and a pilot questionnaire were used as the methods for the study. A toolkit will also be created as a document that provides guidance and signposting to health and social care services for Chinese communities. The findings identified three main themes. Caregivers do not receive any formal support from the UK health and social services, and they felt they would have benefited from getting advice on what support they could access. Furthermore, the data also identified that Chinese organisations do not have the knowledge of dementia, to be able to support those living with dementia and their families. Also, people living with dementia and their families rarely present to Chinese organisations and UK health and social care services, meaning they are not receiving the support they are entitled to or need. Additionally, the community center would like to see workshops/courses around dementia for people from Chinese backgrounds. The study concludes that people from Chinese cultural backgrounds do not have sufficient access to support from UK health and social care services. More information needs to be published that will benefit Chinese communities.

Keywords: Chinese, Chinese organisations, Dementia, family caregivers, social care

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: T. Yamazaki, R. Onuma, H. Kaminaga, Y. Miyadera, S. Nakamura

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Web exploration has increasingly diversified in accordance with the development of browsing environments on the Internet. Moreover, advanced exploration often conducted in intellectual activities such as surveys in research activities. This kind of exploration is conducted for a long period with trials and errors. In such a case, it is extremely important for a user to accumulate the search contexts and understand them. However, existing support systems were not effective enough since most systems could not handle the various factors involved in the exploration. This research aims to develop a novel system to support web exploration focusing on the accumulation of the search contexts. This paper mainly describes the outline of the system. An experiment using the system is also described. Finally, features of the system are discussed based on the results.

Keywords: web exploration context, refinement of search intention, accumulation of context, exploration support, information visualization

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Authors: Chia-Hung Liao, Shih-Chieh Lin

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X-ray computed tomography (CT) technology has been used in the electronics industry as one of the non-destructive inspection tools for years. The key advantage of X-ray computed tomography technology superior to traditional optical inspection is the penetrating characteristics of X-rays can be used to detect defects in the interior of objects. The objective of this study is to find a way to estimate the system geometric deviation of X-ray CT equipment. Projection trajectories of the characteristic points of standard parts were tracked, and ways to calculate the deviation of various geometric parameters of the system will be proposed and evaluated. A simulation study will be conducted to first find out the effects of system geometric deviation on projected trajectories. Then ways to estimate geometric deviation with collected trajectories will be proposed and tested through simulations.

Keywords: geometric calibration, X-ray computed tomography, trajectory tracing, reconstruction optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 109