Search results for: endogenous switching regression model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 18881

Search results for: endogenous switching regression model

17141 Kauffman Model on a Network of Containers

Authors: Johannes J. Schneider, Mathias S. Weyland, Peter Eggenberger Hotz, William D. Jamieson, Oliver Castell, Alessia Faggian, Rudolf M. Füchslin

Abstract:

In the description of the origin of life, there are still some open gaps, e.g., the formation of macromolecules cannot be fully explained so far. The Kauffman model proposes the existence of autocatalytic sets of macromolecules which mutually catalyze reactions leading to each other’s formation. Usually, this model is simulated in one well-stirred pot only, with a continuous inflow of small building blocks, from which larger molecules are created by a set of catalyzed ligation and cleavage reactions. This approach represents the picture of the primordial soup. However, the conditions on the early Earth must have differed geographically, leading to spatially different outcomes whether a specific reaction could be performed or not. Guided by this picture, the Kauffman model is simulated in a large number of containers in parallel, with neighboring containers being connected by diffusion. In each container, only a subset of the overall reaction set can be performed. Under specific conditions, this approach leads to a larger probability for the existence of an autocatalytic metabolism than in the original Kauffman model.

Keywords: agglomeration, autocatalytic set, differential equation, Kauffman model

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17140 Cross-Language Variation and the ‘Fused’ Zone in Bilingual Mental Lexicon: An Experimental Research

Authors: Yuliya E. Leshchenko, Tatyana S. Ostapenko

Abstract:

Language variation is a widespread linguistic phenomenon which can affect different levels of a language system: phonological, morphological, lexical, syntactic, etc. It is obvious that the scope of possible standard alternations within a particular language is limited by a variety of its norms and regulations which set more or less clear boundaries for what is possible and what is not possible for the speakers. The possibility of lexical variation (alternate usage of lexical items within the same contexts) is based on the fact that the meanings of words are not clearly and rigidly defined in the consciousness of the speakers. Therefore, lexical variation is usually connected with unstable relationship between words and their referents: a case when a particular lexical item refers to different types of referents, or when a particular referent can be named by various lexical items. We assume that the scope of lexical variation in bilingual speech is generally wider than that observed in monolingual speech due to the fact that, besides ‘lexical item – referent’ relations it involves the possibility of cross-language variation of L1 and L2 lexical items. We use the term ‘cross-language variation’ to denote a case when two equivalent words of different languages are treated by a bilingual speaker as freely interchangeable within the common linguistic context. As distinct from code-switching which is traditionally defined as the conscious use of more than one language within one communicative act, in case of cross-language lexical variation the speaker does not perceive the alternate lexical items as belonging to different languages and, therefore, does not realize the change of language code. In the paper, the authors present research of lexical variation of adult Komi-Permyak – Russian bilingual speakers. The two languages co-exist on the territory of the Komi-Permyak District in Russia (Komi-Permyak as the ethnic language and Russian as the official state language), are usually acquired from birth in natural linguistic environment and, according to the data of sociolinguistic surveys, are both identified by the speakers as coordinate mother tongues. The experimental research demonstrated that alternation of Komi-Permyak and Russian words within one utterance/phrase is highly frequent both in speech perception and production. Moreover, our participants estimated cross-language word combinations like ‘маленькая /Russian/ нывка /Komi-Permyak/’ (‘a little girl’) or ‘мунны /Komi-Permyak/ домой /Russian/’ (‘go home’) as regular/habitual, containing no violation of any linguistic rules and being equally possible in speech as the equivalent intra-language word combinations (‘учöтик нывка’ /Komi-Permyak/ or ‘идти домой’ /Russian/). All the facts considered, we claim that constant concurrent use of the two languages results in the fact that a large number of their words tend to be intuitively interpreted by the speakers as lexical variants not only related to the same referent, but also referring to both languages or, more precisely, to none of them in particular. Consequently, we can suppose that bilingual mental lexicon includes an extensive ‘fused’ zone of lexical representations that provide the basis for cross-language variation in bilingual speech.

Keywords: bilingualism, bilingual mental lexicon, code-switching, lexical variation

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17139 Estimation of Probabilistic Fatigue Crack Propagation Models of AZ31 Magnesium Alloys under Various Load Ratio Conditions by Using the Interpolation of a Random Variable

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The essential purpose is to present the good fatigue crack propagation model describing a stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior in a rolled magnesium alloy, AZ31, under various load ratio conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments were carried out in laboratory air under four conditions of load ratio, R, using AZ31 to investigate the crack growth behavior. The stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior was analyzed using an interpolation of random variable, Z, introduced to an empirical fatigue crack propagation model. The empirical fatigue models used in this study are Paris-Erdogan model, Walker model, Forman model, and modified Forman model. It was found that the random variable is useful in describing the stochastic fatigue crack growth behaviors under various load ratio conditions. The good probabilistic model describing a stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior under various load ratio conditions was also proposed.

Keywords: magnesium alloys, fatigue crack propagation model, load ratio, interpolation of random variable

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17138 Parental Bonding and Cognitive Emotion Regulation

Authors: Fariea Bakul, Chhanda Karmaker

Abstract:

The present study was designed to investigate the effects of parental bonding on adult’s cognitive emotion regulation and also to investigate gender differences in parental bonding and cognitive emotion regulation. Data were collected by using convenience sampling technique from 100 adult students (50 males and 50 females) of different universities of Dhaka city, ages between 20 to 25 years, using Bengali version of Parental Bonding Inventory and Bengali version of Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire. The obtained data were analyzed by using multiple regression analysis and independent samples t-test. The results revealed that fathers care (β =0.317, p < 0.05) was only significantly positively associated with adult’s cognitive emotion regulation. Adjusted R² indicated that the model explained 30% of the variance in adult’s adaptive cognitive emotion regulation. No significant association was found between parental bonding and less adaptive cognitive emotion regulations. Results from independent samples t-test also revealed that there was no significant gender difference in both parental bonding and cognitive emotion regulations.

Keywords: cognitive emotion regulation, parental bonding, parental care, parental over-protection

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17137 Smallholder Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies and Socioeconomic Determinants of Climate Variability in Boset District, Oromia, Ethiopia

Authors: Hurgesa Hundera, Samuel Shibeshibikeko, Tarike Daba, Tesfaye Ganamo

Abstract:

The study aimed at examining the ongoing adaptation strategies used by smallholder farmers in response to climate variability in Boset district. It also assessed the socioeconomic factors that influence the choice of adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers to climate variability risk. For attaining the objectives of the study, both primary and secondary sources of data were employed. The primary data were obtained through a household questionnaire, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and observations, while secondary data were acquired through desk review. Questionnaires were distributed and filled by 328 respondents, and they were identified through systematic random sampling technique. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression model were applied in this study as the main analytical methods. The findings of the study reveal that the sample households have utilized multiple adaptation strategies in response to climate variability, such as cropping early mature crops, planting drought resistant crops, growing mixed crops on the same farm lands, and others. The results of the binary logistic model revealed that education, sex, age, family size, off farm income, farm experience, access to climate information, access to farm input, and farm size were significant and key factors determining farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies to climate variability in the study area. To enable effective adaptation measures, Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resource, with its regional bureaus and offices and concerned non–governmental organizations, should consider climate variability in their planning and budgeting in all levels of decision making.

Keywords: adaptation strategies, boset district, climate variability, smallholder farmers

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17136 A Nonlinear Parabolic Partial Differential Equation Model for Image Enhancement

Authors: Tudor Barbu

Abstract:

We present a robust nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation (PDE)-based denoising scheme in this article. Our approach is based on a second-order anisotropic diffusion model that is described first. Then, a consistent and explicit numerical approximation algorithm is constructed for this continuous model by using the finite-difference method. Finally, our restoration experiments and method comparison, which prove the effectiveness of this proposed technique, are discussed in this paper.

Keywords: anisotropic diffusion, finite differences, image denoising and restoration, nonlinear PDE model, anisotropic diffusion, numerical approximation schemes

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17135 Walking Cadence to Attain a Minimum of Moderate Aerobic Intensity in People at Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases

Authors: Fagner O. Serrano, Danielle R. Bouchard, Todd A. Duhame

Abstract:

Walking cadence (steps/min) is an effective way to prescribe exercise so an individual can reach a moderate intensity, which is recommended to optimize health benefits. To our knowledge, there is no study on the required walking cadence to reach a moderate intensity for people that present chronic conditions or risk factors for chronic conditions such as Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD). The objectives of this study were: 1- to identify the walking cadence needed for people at risk of CVD to a reach moderate intensity, and 2- to develop and test an equation using clinical variables to help professionals working with individuals at risk of CVD to estimate the walking cadence needed to reach moderate intensity. Ninety-one people presenting a minimum of two risk factors for CVD completed a medically supervised graded exercise test to assess maximum oxygen consumption at the first visit. The last visit consisted of recording walking cadence using a foot pod Garmin FR-60 and a Polar heart rate monitor, aiming to get participants to reach 40% of their maximal oxygen consumption using a portable metabolic cart on an indoor flat surface. The equation to predict the walking cadence needed to reach moderate intensity in this sample was developed as follows: The sample was randomly split in half and the equation was developed with one half of the participants, and validated using the other half. Body mass index, height, stride length, leg height, body weight, fitness level (VO2max), and self-selected cadence (over 200 meters) were measured using objective measured. Mean walking cadence to reach moderate intensity for people age 64.3 ± 10.3 years old at risk of CVD was 115.8  10.3 steps per minute. Body mass index, height, body weight, fitness level, and self-selected cadence were associated with walking cadence at moderate intensity when evaluated in bivariate analyses (r ranging from 0.22 to 0.52; all P values ≤0.05). Using linear regression analysis including all clinical variables associated in the bivariate analyses, body weight was the significant predictor of walking cadence for reaching a moderate intensity (ß=0.24; P=.018) explaining 13% of walking cadence to reach moderate intensity. The regression model created was Y = 134.4-0.24 X body weight (kg).Our findings suggest that people presenting two or more risk factors for CVD are reaching moderate intensity while walking at a cadence above the one officially recommended (116 steps per minute vs. 100 steps per minute) for healthy adults.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, moderate intensity, older adults, walking cadence

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17134 Artificial Neural Network to Predict the Optimum Performance of Air Conditioners under Environmental Conditions in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Amr Sadek, Abdelrahaman Al-Qahtany, Turkey Salem Al-Qahtany

Abstract:

In this study, a backpropagation artificial neural network (ANN) model has been used to predict the cooling and heating capacities of air conditioners (AC) under different conditions. Sufficiently large measurement results were obtained from the national energy-efficiency laboratories in Saudi Arabia and were used for the learning process of the ANN model. The parameters affecting the performance of the AC, including temperature, humidity level, specific heat enthalpy indoors and outdoors, and the air volume flow rate of indoor units, have been considered. These parameters were used as inputs for the ANN model, while the cooling and heating capacity values were set as the targets. A backpropagation ANN model with two hidden layers and one output layer could successfully correlate the input parameters with the targets. The characteristics of the ANN model including the input-processing, transfer, neurons-distance, topology, and training functions have been discussed. The performance of the ANN model was monitored over the training epochs and assessed using the mean squared error function. The model was then used to predict the performance of the AC under conditions that were not included in the measurement results. The optimum performance of the AC was also predicted under the different environmental conditions in Saudi Arabia. The uncertainty of the ANN model predictions has been evaluated taking into account the randomness of the data and lack of learning.

Keywords: artificial neural network, uncertainty of model predictions, efficiency of air conditioners, cooling and heating capacities

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17133 Dynamic Investigation of Brake Squeal Problem in The Presence of Kinematic Nonlinearities

Authors: Shahroz Khan, Osman Taha Şen

Abstract:

In automotive brake systems, brake noise has been a major problem, and brake squeal is one of the critical ones which is an instability issue. The brake squeal produces an audible sound at high frequency that is irritating to the human ear. To study this critical problem, first a nonlinear mathematical model with three degree of freedom is developed. This model consists of a point mass that simulates the brake pad and a sliding surface that simulates the brake rotor. The model exposes kinematic and clearance nonlinearities, but no friction nonlinearity. In the formulation, the friction coefficient is assumed to be constant and the friction force does not change direction. The nonlinear governing equations of the model are first obtained, and numerical solutions are sought for different cases. Second, a computational model for the squeal problem is developed with a commercial software, and computational solutions are obtained with two different types of contact cases (solid-to-solid and sphere-to-plane). This model consists of three rigid bodies and several elastic elements that simulate the key characteristics of a brake system. The response obtained from this model is compared with numerical solutions in time and frequency domain.

Keywords: contact force, nonlinearities, brake squeal, vehicle brake

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17132 Stability of Hybrid Stochastic Systems

Authors: Manlika Ratchagit

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with robust mean square stability of uncertain stochastic switched discrete time-delay systems. The system to be considered is subject to interval time-varying delays, which allows the delay to be a fast time-varying function and the lower bound is not restricted to zero. Based on the discrete Lyapunov functional, a switching rule for the robust mean square stability for the uncertain stochastic discrete time-delay system is designed via linear matrix inequalities. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: robust mean square stability, discrete-time stochastic systems, hybrid systems, interval time-varying delays, Lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequalities

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17131 Development of a Wind Resource Assessment Framework Using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, Python Scripting and Geographic Information Systems

Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

Abstract:

Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: wind resource assessment, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, python, GIS software

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17130 Water Demand Modelling Using Artificial Neural Network in Ramallah

Authors: F. Massri, M. Shkarneh, B. Almassri

Abstract:

Water scarcity and increasing water demand especially for residential use are major challenges facing Palestine. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. The main objective of this paper is to (i) study the major factors influencing the water consumption in Palestine, (ii) understand the general pattern of Household water consumption, (iii) assess the possible changes in household water consumption and suggest appropriate remedies and (iv) develop prediction model based on the Artificial Neural Network to the water consumption in Palestinian cities. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part includes literature review of household water consumption studies. The second part concerns data collection methodology, conceptual frame work for the household water consumption surveys, survey descriptions and data processing methods. The third part presents descriptive statistics, multiple regression and analysis of the water consumption in the two Palestinian cities. The final part develops the use of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the water consumption in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: water management, demand forecasting, consumption, ANN, Ramallah

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17129 The Process of Crisis: Model of Its Development in the Organization

Authors: M. Mikušová

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to present a clear and comprehensive picture of the process of a crisis in the organization which will help to better understand its possible developments. For a description of the sequence of individual steps and an indication of their causation and possible variants of the developments, a detailed flow diagram with verbal comment is applied. For simplicity, the process of the crisis is observed in four basic phases called: symptoms of the crisis, diagnosis, action and prevention. The model highlights the complexity of the phenomenon of the crisis and that the various phases of the crisis are interweaving.

Keywords: crisis, management, model, organization

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17128 High-Tech Based Simulation and Analysis of Maximum Power Point in Energy System: A Case Study Using IT Based Software Involving Regression Analysis

Authors: Enemeri George Uweiyohowo

Abstract:

Improved achievement with respect to output control of photovoltaic (PV) systems is one of the major focus of PV in recent times. This is evident to its low carbon emission and efficiency. Power failure or outage from commercial providers, in general, does not promote development to public and private sector, these basically limit the development of industries. The need for a well-structured PV system is of importance for an efficient and cost-effective monitoring system. The purpose of this paper is to validate the maximum power point of an off-grid PV system taking into consideration the most effective tilt and orientation angles for PV's in the southern hemisphere. This paper is based on analyzing the system using a solar charger with MPPT from a pulse width modulation (PWM) perspective. The power conditioning device chosen is a solar charger with MPPT. The practical setup consists of a PV panel that is set to an orientation angle of 0∘N, with a corresponding tilt angle of 36∘, 26∘ and 16∘. Preliminary results include regression analysis (normal probability plot) showing the maximum power point in the system as well the best tilt angle for maximum power point tracking.

Keywords: poly-crystalline PV panels, information technology (IT), maximum power point tracking (MPPT), pulse width modulation (PWM)

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17127 Moderating Influence of Environmental Hostility and External Relational Capital on the Effect of Entrepreneurial Orientation on Performance

Authors: Peter Ugbedeojo Nelson

Abstract:

Despite the tremendous advancements and knowledge acquisition around entrepreneurship orientation (EO) research, there may still be more to learn on how environmental dynamics would permute organizational processes and determine the extent to which success would be achieved. Using the contingency theory, we test a model that proposes a moderating influence of external relational capital and environmental hostility on the EO-performance effect of 423 managers/owners of small and medium scale enterprises. The hypotheses were tested using Hayes simultaneous regression, and the results showed that all EO dimensions (risk-taking, innovation, and performance) had a main effect on performance while the moderating variables interacted well with risk-taking (more than other EO dimensions) to improve performance. However, external relational capital, more than environmental hostility, influences the EO-performance relationship. Our findings highlight the differential ways that EO dimensions interact with environmental contingencies to influence performance. Further studies can examine how competitive aggressiveness and autonomy are moderated by external relational capital and environmental hostility.

Keywords: external relational capital, entrepreneurial orientation, risk-taking, innovation, proactiveness

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17126 Effect of Lactone Glycoside on Feeding Deterrence and Nutritive Physiology of Tobacco Caterpillar Spodoptera litura Fabricius (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera)

Authors: Selvamuthukumaran Thirunavukkarasu, Arivudainambi Sundararajan

Abstract:

The plant active molecules with their known mode of action are important leads to the development of newer insecticides. Lactone glycoside was identified earlier as the active principle in Cleistanthus collinus (Roxb.) Benth. (Fam: Euphorbiaceae). It possessed feeding deterrent, insecticidal and insect growth regulatory actions at varying concentrations. Deducing its mode of action opens a possibility of its further development. A no-choice leaf disc bioassay was carried out with lactone glycoside at different doses for different instars and Deterrence Indices were worked out. Using regression analysis concentrations imparting 10, 30 and 50 per cent deterrence (DI10, DI30 & DI50) were worked out. At these doses, effect on nutritional indices like Relative Consumption and Growth Rates (RCR & RGR), Efficiencies of Conversion of Ingested and Digested food (ECI & ECD) and Approximate Digestibility (AD) were worked out. The Relative Consumption and Growth Rate of control and lactone glycoside larva were compared by regression analysis. Regression analysis of deterrence indices revealed that the concentrations needed for imparting 50 per cent deterrence was 60.66, 68.47 and 71.10 ppm for third, fourth and fifth instars respectively. Relative consumption rate (RCR) and relative growth rate (RGR) were reduced. This confirmed the antifeedant action of the fraction. Approximate digestibility (AD) was found greater in treatments indicating reduced faeces because of poor digestibility and retention of food in the gut. Efficiency of conversion of both ingested and digested (ECI and ECD) food was also found to be greatly reduced. This indicated presence of toxic action. This was proved by comparing growth efficiencies of control and lactone glycoside treated larvae. Lactone glycoside was found to possess both feeding deterrent and toxic modes of action. Studies on molecular targets based on this preliminary site of action lead to new insecticide development.

Keywords: Spodoptera litura Fabricius, Cleistanthus collinus (Roxb.) Benth, feeding deterrence, mode of action

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17125 New Results on Stability of Hybrid Stochastic Systems

Authors: Manlika Rajchakit

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with robust mean square stability of uncertain stochastic switched discrete time-delay systems. The system to be considered is subject to interval time-varying delays, which allows the delay to be a fast time-varying function and the lower bound is not restricted to zero. Based on the discrete Lyapunov functional, a switching rule for the robust mean square stability for the uncertain stochastic discrete time-delay system is designed via linear matrix inequalities. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: robust mean square stability, discrete-time stochastic systems, hybrid systems, interval time-varying delays, lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequalities

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17124 Classification Based on Deep Neural Cellular Automata Model

Authors: Yasser F. Hassan

Abstract:

Deep learning structure is a branch of machine learning science and greet achievement in research and applications. Cellular neural networks are regarded as array of nonlinear analog processors called cells connected in a way allowing parallel computations. The paper discusses how to use deep learning structure for representing neural cellular automata model. The proposed learning technique in cellular automata model will be examined from structure of deep learning. A deep automata neural cellular system modifies each neuron based on the behavior of the individual and its decision as a result of multi-level deep structure learning. The paper will present the architecture of the model and the results of simulation of approach are given. Results from the implementation enrich deep neural cellular automata system and shed a light on concept formulation of the model and the learning in it.

Keywords: cellular automata, neural cellular automata, deep learning, classification

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17123 Regional Hydrological Extremes Frequency Analysis Based on Statistical and Hydrological Models

Authors: Hadush Kidane Meresa

Abstract:

The hydrological extremes frequency analysis is the foundation for the hydraulic engineering design, flood protection, drought management and water resources management and planning to utilize the available water resource to meet the desired objectives of different organizations and sectors in a country. This spatial variation of the statistical characteristics of the extreme flood and drought events are key practice for regional flood and drought analysis and mitigation management. For different hydro-climate of the regions, where the data set is short, scarcity, poor quality and insufficient, the regionalization methods are applied to transfer at-site data to a region. This study aims in regional high and low flow frequency analysis for Poland River Basins. Due to high frequent occurring of hydrological extremes in the region and rapid water resources development in this basin have caused serious concerns over the flood and drought magnitude and frequencies of the river in Poland. The magnitude and frequency result of high and low flows in the basin is needed for flood and drought planning, management and protection at present and future. Hydrological homogeneous high and low flow regions are formed by the cluster analysis of site characteristics, using the hierarchical and C- mean clustering and PCA method. Statistical tests for regional homogeneity are utilized, by Discordancy and Heterogeneity measure tests. In compliance with results of the tests, the region river basin has been divided into ten homogeneous regions. In this study, frequency analysis of high and low flows using AM for high flow and 7-day minimum low flow series is conducted using six statistical distributions. The use of L-moment and LL-moment method showed a homogeneous region over entire province with Generalized logistic (GLOG), Generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson type III (P-III), Generalized Pareto (GPAR), Weibull (WEI) and Power (PR) distributions as the regional drought and flood frequency distributions. The 95% percentile and Flow duration curves of 1, 7, 10, 30 days have been plotted for 10 stations. However, the cluster analysis performed two regions in west and east of the province where L-moment and LL-moment method demonstrated the homogeneity of the regions and GLOG and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions as regional frequency distributions for each region, respectively. The spatial variation and regional frequency distribution of flood and drought characteristics for 10 best catchment from the whole region was selected and beside the main variable (streamflow: high and low) we used variables which are more related to physiographic and drainage characteristics for identify and delineate homogeneous pools and to derive best regression models for ungauged sites. Those are mean annual rainfall, seasonal flow, average slope, NDVI, aspect, flow length, flow direction, maximum soil moisture, elevation, and drainage order. The regional high-flow or low-flow relationship among one streamflow characteristics with (AM or 7-day mean annual low flows) some basin characteristics is developed using Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) regression model, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of flood and drought of desired return periods for ungauged catchments.

Keywords: flood , drought, frequency, magnitude, regionalization, stochastic, ungauged, Poland

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17122 Optimization of Scheduling through Altering Layout Using Pro-Model

Authors: Zouhair Issa Ahmed, Ahmed Abdulrasool Ahmed, Falah Hassan Abdulsada

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This paper presents a layout of a factory using Pro-Model simulation by choosing the best layout that gives the highest productivity and least work in process. The general problem is to find the best sequence in which jobs pass between the machines which are compatible with the technological constraints and optimal with respect to some performance criteria. The best simulation with Pro-Model program increased productivity and reduced work in process by balancing lines of production compared with the current layout of factory when productivity increased from 45 products to 180 products through 720 hours.

Keywords: scheduling, Pro-Model, simulation, balancing lines of production, layout planning, WIP

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17121 Effect of Exercise and Mindfulness on Cognitive and Psycho-Emotional Functioning in Children with ADHD

Authors: Hannah Bigelow, Marcus D. Gottlieb, Michelle Ogrodnik, Jeffrey, D. Graham, Barbara Fenesi

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Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders affecting approximately 6% of children worldwide. ADHD is characterized by a combination of persistent deficits including impaired inhibitory control, working memory and task-switching. Many children with ADHD also have comorbid mental health issues such as anxiety and depression. There are several treatment options to manage ADHD impairments, including drug and behavioural management therapy, but they all have drawbacks, such as worsening mood disturbances or being inaccessible to certain demographics. Both physical exercise and mindfulness meditation serve as alternative options to potentially help mitigate ADHD symptoms. Although there is extensive support for the benefits of long-term physical exercise or mindfulness meditation programs, there is insufficient research investigating how acute bouts (i.e., single, short bouts) can help children with ADHD. Thus, the current study aimed to understand how single, short bouts of exercise and mindfulness meditation impacts executive functioning and psycho-emotional well-being in children with ADHD, as well as to directly compare the efficacy of these two interventions. The study used a a pre- post-test, within-subjects design to assess the effects of a 10-minute bout of moderate intensity exercise versus a 10-minute bout of mindfulness meditation (versus 10 minutes of a reading control) on the executive functioning and psycho-emotional well-being of 16 children and youth with ADHD aged 10-14 (male=11; White=80%). Participants completed all three interventions: 10 minutes of exercise, 10 minutes of mindfulness meditation, and 10 minutes of reading (control). Executive functioning (inhibitory control, working memory, task-switching) and psycho-emotional well-being (mood, self-efficacy) were assessed before and after each intervention. Mindfulness meditation promoted executive functioning, while exercise enhanced positive mood and self-efficacy. Critically, this work demonstrates that a single, short bout of mindfulness meditation session can promote inhibitory control among children with ADHD. This is especially important for children with ADHD as inhibitory control deficits are among the most pervasive challenges that they face. Furthermore, the current study provides preliminary evidence for the benefit of acute exercise for promoting positive mood and general self-efficacy for children and youth with ADHD. These results may increase the accessibility of acute exercise for children with ADHD, providing guardians and teachers a feasible option to incorporate just 10 minutes of exercise to assist children emotionally. In summary, this research supports the use of acute exercise and mindfulness meditation on varying aspects of executive functioning and psycho-emotional well-being in children and youth with ADHD. This work offers important insight into how behavioural interventions could be personalized according to a child’s needs.

Keywords: attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), acute exercise, mindfulness meditation, executive functioning, psycho-emotional well-being

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17120 Commercial Automobile Insurance: A Practical Approach of the Generalized Additive Model

Authors: Nicolas Plamondon, Stuart Atkinson, Shuzi Zhou

Abstract:

The insurance industry is usually not the first topic one has in mind when thinking about applications of data science. However, the use of data science in the finance and insurance industry is growing quickly for several reasons, including an abundance of reliable customer data, ferocious competition requiring more accurate pricing, etc. Among the top use cases of data science, we find pricing optimization, customer segmentation, customer risk assessment, fraud detection, marketing, and triage analytics. The objective of this paper is to present an application of the generalized additive model (GAM) on a commercial automobile insurance product: an individually rated commercial automobile. These are vehicles used for commercial purposes, but for which there is not enough volume to apply pricing to several vehicles at the same time. The GAM model was selected as an improvement over GLM for its ease of use and its wide range of applications. The model was trained using the largest split of the data to determine model parameters. The remaining part of the data was used as testing data to verify the quality of the modeling activity. We used the Gini coefficient to evaluate the performance of the model. For long-term monitoring, commonly used metrics such as RMSE and MAE will be used. Another topic of interest in the insurance industry is to process of producing the model. We will discuss at a high level the interactions between the different teams with an insurance company that needs to work together to produce a model and then monitor the performance of the model over time. Moreover, we will discuss the regulations in place in the insurance industry. Finally, we will discuss the maintenance of the model and the fact that new data does not come constantly and that some metrics can take a long time to become meaningful.

Keywords: insurance, data science, modeling, monitoring, regulation, processes

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17119 Control Technique for Single Phase Bipolar H-Bridge Inverter Connected to the Grid

Authors: L. Hassaine, A. Mraoui, M. R. Bengourina

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In photovoltaic system, connected to the grid, the main goal is to control the power that the inverter injects into the grid from the energy provided by the photovoltaic generator. This paper proposes a control technique for a photovoltaic system connected to the grid based on the digital pulse-width modulation (DSPWM) which can synchronise a sinusoidal current output with a grid voltage and generate power at unity power factor. This control is based on H-Bridge inverter controlled by bipolar PWM Switching. The electrical scheme of the system is presented. Simulations results of output voltage and current validate the impact of this method to determinate the appropriate control of the system. A digital design of a generator PWM using VHDL is proposed and implemented on a Xilinx FPGA.

Keywords: grid connected photovoltaic system, H-Bridge inverter, control, bipolar PWM

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17118 The Long-Run Impact of Financial Development on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in India: An Application of Regime Shift Based Cointegration Approach

Authors: Javaid Ahmad Dar, Mohammad Asif

Abstract:

The present study investigates the long-run impact of financial development, energy consumption and economic growth on greenhouse gas emissions for India, in presence of endogenous structural breaks, over a period of 1971-2013. Autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure and Hatemi-J threshold cointegration technique have been used to test the variables for cointegration. ARDL bounds test did not confirm any cointegrating relationship between the variables. The threshold cointegration test establishes the presence of long-run impact of financial development, energy use and economic growth on greenhouse gas emissions in India. The results reveal that the long-run relationship between the variables has witnessed two regime shifts, in 1978 and 2002. The empirical evidence shows that financial sector development and energy consumption in India degrade environment. Unlike previous studies, this paper finds no statistical evidence of long-run relationship between economic growth and environmental deterioration. The study also challenges the existence of environmental Kuznets curve in India.

Keywords: cointegration, financial development, global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, regime shift, unit root

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17117 Turbulent Forced Convection of Cu-Water Nanofluid: CFD Models Comparison

Authors: I. Behroyan, P. Ganesan, S. He, S. Sivasankaran

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This study compares the predictions of five types of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models, including two single-phase models (i.e. Newtonian and non-Newtonian) and three two-phase models (Eulerian-Eulerian, mixture and Eulerian-Lagrangian), to investigate turbulent forced convection of Cu-water nanofluid in a tube with a constant heat flux on the tube wall. The Reynolds (Re) number of the flow is between 10,000 and 25,000, while the volume fraction of Cu particles used is in the range of 0 to 2%. The commercial CFD package of ANSYS-Fluent is used. The results from the CFD models are compared with results from experimental investigations from literature. According to the results of this study, non-Newtonian single-phase model, in general, does not show a good agreement with Xuan and Li correlation in prediction of Nu number. Eulerian-Eulerian model gives inaccurate results expect for φ=0.5%. Mixture model gives a maximum error of 15%. Newtonian single-phase model and Eulerian-Lagrangian model, in overall, are the recommended models. This work can be used as a reference for selecting an appreciate model for future investigation. The study also gives a proper insight about the important factors such as Brownian motion, fluid behavior parameters and effective nanoparticle conductivity which should be considered or changed by the each model.

Keywords: heat transfer, nanofluid, single-phase models, two-phase models

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17116 Particle Filter Implementation of a Non-Linear Dynamic Fall Model

Authors: T. Kobayashi, K. Shiba, T. Kaburagi, Y. Kurihara

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For the elderly living alone, falls can be a serious problem encountered in daily life. Some elderly people are unable to stand up without the assistance of a caregiver. They may become unconscious after a fall, which can lead to serious aftereffects such as hypothermia, dehydration, and sometimes even death. We treat the subject as an inverted pendulum and model its angle from the equilibrium position and its angular velocity. As the model is non-linear, we implement the filtering method with a particle filter which can estimate true states of the non-linear model. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the particle filter estimation results, we calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the estimated angle/angular velocity and the true values generated by the simulation. The experimental results give the highest accuracy RMSE of 0.0141 rad and 0.1311 rad/s for the angle and angular velocity, respectively.

Keywords: fall, microwave Doppler sensor, non-linear dynamics model, particle filter

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17115 Exploratory Study of Individual User Characteristics That Predict Attraction to Computer-Mediated Social Support Platforms and Mental Health Apps

Authors: Rachel Cherner

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Introduction: The current study investigates several user characteristics that may predict the adoption of digital mental health supports. The extent to which individual characteristics predict preferences for functional elements of computer-mediated social support (CMSS) platforms and mental health (MH) apps is relatively unstudied. Aims: The present study seeks to illuminate the relationship between broad user characteristics and perceived attraction to CMSS platforms and MH apps. Methods: Participants (n=353) were recruited using convenience sampling methods (i.e., digital flyers, email distribution, and online survey forums). The sample was 68% male, and 32% female, with a mean age of 29. Participant racial and ethnic breakdown was 75% White, 7%, 5% Asian, and 5% Black or African American. Participants were asked to complete a 25-minute self-report questionnaire that included empirically validated measures assessing a battery of characteristics (i.e., subjective levels of anxiety/depression via PHQ-9 (Patient Health Questionnaire 9-item) and GAD-7 (Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item); attachment style via MAQ (Measure of Attachment Qualities); personality types via TIPI (The 10-Item Personality Inventory); growth mindset and mental health-seeking attitudes via GM (Growth Mindset Scale) and MHSAS (Mental Help Seeking Attitudes Scale)) and subsequent attitudes toward CMSS platforms and MH apps. Results: A stepwise linear regression was used to test if user characteristics significantly predicted attitudes towards key features of CMSS platforms and MH apps. The overall regression was statistically significant (R² =.20, F(1,344)=14.49, p<.000). Conclusion: This original study examines the clinical and sociocultural factors influencing decisions to use CMSS platforms and MH apps. Findings provide valuable insight for increasing adoption and engagement with digital mental health support. Fostering a growth mindset may be a method of increasing participant/patient engagement. In addition, CMSS platforms and MH apps may empower under-resourced and minority groups to gain basic access to mental health support. We do not assume this final model contains the best predictors of use; this is merely a preliminary step toward understanding the psychology and attitudes of CMSS platform/MH app users.

Keywords: computer-mediated social support platforms, digital mental health, growth mindset, health-seeking attitudes, mental health apps, user characteristics

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17114 Enhancing Food Security through Cabbage Production by Local Fammers in Nkokobe Municipality

Authors: Sipumle Qapeshu, Bongiwe Mcata, Ajuruchukwu Obi

Abstract:

Subsistence farmers practice farming for survival while commercial farmers produce to feed themselves and larger society with the motive to achieve highest profit. These types of farmers are characterised by growing what they eat, live without making regular purchases in the markets. The main objective of subsistence/peasant farmers is to ensure food security at household level. Cabbage is a crop that has been identified to have vital food nutrient sources like Vitamin A, B and C, protein, calcium, iron and antioxidative compounds beneficial for preventing cancer. This paper, therefore, looks at the potential that cabbage production has in enhancing household food security and also the challenges encountered by these cabbage producers. Primary data was obtained from 50 respondents, and linear regression model was used to analyse the data used. Income was used as food security measure. The results showed that three variables were statistically significant and they are gender (10%), education (5%) and household size (5%). Meaning that these are variables that influenced cabbage production by these households, and it also affects their food security status since income is affected.

Keywords: subsistence farmers, food security, cabbage, farming

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17113 Algorithm Research on Traffic Sign Detection Based on Improved EfficientDet

Authors: Ma Lei-Lei, Zhou You

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Aiming at the problems of low detection accuracy of deep learning algorithm in traffic sign detection, this paper proposes improved EfficientDet based traffic sign detection algorithm. Multi-head self-attention is introduced in the minimum resolution layer of the backbone of EfficientDet to achieve effective aggregation of local and global depth information, and this study proposes an improved feature fusion pyramid with increased vertical cross-layer connections, which improves the performance of the model while introducing a small amount of complexity, the Balanced L1 Loss is introduced to replace the original regression loss function Smooth L1 Loss, which solves the problem of balance in the loss function. Experimental results show, the algorithm proposed in this study is suitable for the task of traffic sign detection. Compared with other models, the improved EfficientDet has the best detection accuracy. Although the test speed is not completely dominant, it still meets the real-time requirement.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, transformer, feature pyramid networks, loss function

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17112 A Gastro-Intestinal Model for a Rational Design of in vitro Systems to Study Drugs Bioavailability

Authors: Pompa Marcello, Mauro Capocelli, Vincenzo Piemonte

Abstract:

This work focuses on a mathematical model able to describe the gastro-intestinal physiology and providing a rational tool for the design of an artificial gastro-intestinal system. This latter is mainly devoted to analyse the absorption and bioavailability of drugs and nutrients through in vitro tests in order to overcome (or, at least, to partially replace) in vivo trials. The provided model realizes a conjunction ring (with extended prediction capability) between in vivo tests and mechanical-laboratory models emulating the human body. On this basis, no empirical equations controlling the gastric emptying are implemented in this model as frequent in the cited literature and all the sub-unit and the related system of equations are physiologically based. More in detail, the model structure consists of six compartments (stomach, duodenum, jejunum, ileum, colon and blood) interconnected through pipes and valves. Paracetamol, Ketoprofen, Irbesartan and Ketoconazole are considered and analysed in this work as reference drugs. The mathematical model has been validated against in vivo literature data. Results obtained show a very good model reliability and highlight the possibility to realize tailored simulations for different couples patient-drug, including food adsorption dynamics.

Keywords: gastro-intestinal model, drugs bioavailability, paracetamol, ketoprofen

Procedia PDF Downloads 157