Search results for: mode choice model

Authors: Nisha Budhwar, Sunita Daniel

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In this paper, we analyse the stability of the SEIR model of malaria with infective immigrants which was recently formulated by the authors. The model consists of an SEIR model for the human population and SI Model for the mosquitoes. Susceptible humans become infected after they are bitten by infectious mosquitoes and move on to the Exposed, Infected and Recovered classes respectively. The susceptible mosquito becomes infected after biting an infected person and remains infected till death. We calculate the reproduction number R0 using the next generation method and then discuss about the stability of the equilibrium points. We use the Lyapunov function to show the global stability of the equilibrium points.

Keywords: equilibrium points, exposed, global stability, infective immigrants, Lyapunov function, recovered, reproduction number, susceptible

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Mehtab Alam, Mudiarasan Kuppusamy, Puvaneswaran Kunaserkaran

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The purpose of this paper is to bridge the gap and complete the relationship between tourism destinations and image branding as a choice of edifice foreign policy. Such options became a crucial component for individuals interested in leisure and travel activities. The destination management factors have been evaluated and analyzed using the primary and secondary data in a mixed-methods approach (quantitative sample of 384 and qualitative 8 semi-structured interviews at saturated point). The study chose the Environmental Management Accounting (EMA) and Image Restoration (IR) theories, along with a schematic diagram and an analytical framework supported by NVivo software 12, for two locations in Abbottabad, KPK, Pakistan: Shimla Hill and Thandiani. This incorporates the use of PLS-SEM model for assessing validity of data while SPSS for data screening of descriptive statistics. The results show that destination management's promotion of tourism has significantly improved Pakistan's state image. The use of institutional setup, environmental drivers, immigration, security, and hospitality as well as recreational initiatives on destination management is encouraged. The practical ramifications direct the heads of tourism projects, diplomats, directors, and policymakers to complete destination projects before inviting people to Pakistan. The paper provides the extent of knowledge for academic tourism circles to use tourism destinations as brand ambassadors.

Keywords: tourism, management, state image, foreign policy, image branding

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Authors: Mubashar Iqbal, Iqra Anjum, Muhammad Dildar Gogi, Muhammad Jalal Arif

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The present study was carried to screen out the effective entomopathogenic fungi (EPF) inoculation method in maize and to evaluate pathogenicity and oviposition-choice in C. partellus. Three entomopathogenic fungi (EPF) formulations Pacer® (Metarhizium anisopliae), Racer® (Beauveria bassiana) and Meailkil® (Verticillium lecanii) were evaluated at three concentrations (5000, 10000 and 20000 ppm) for their endophytism in maize and pathogenicity in C. partellus. The stock solution of the highest concentration (20,000 ppm) was prepared and next lower from stock solution. In the first experiment, three EPF was inoculated in maize plant by four methods, i.e., leaf-inoculation (LI), whorl-inoculation (WI), shoot-inoculation (SI) and root-inoculation (RI). Leaf-discs and stem-cutting were sampled in all four inoculation methods and placed on fungus growth media in Petri dishes. In the second experiment, pathogenicity, pupal formation, adult emergence, sex ratio, oviposition-choice, and growth index of C. partellus were calculated. The leaves and stem of the inoculated plants were given to the counted number of larvae of C. Partellus. The mortality of larvae was recorded on daily basis till the pupation. The result shows that maximum percent mortality (86.67%) was recorded at high concentration (20000ppm) of Beauveria bassiana by leaf inoculation method. For oviposition choice bioassay, the newly emerged adults were fed on diet (water, honey and yeast in 9:1:1) for 48 hours. One pair of C. Partellus were aspirated from the rearing cages and were detained in large test tube plugged with diet soaked cotton. A set of four plants for each treatment were prepared and randomized inside the large oviposition chamber. The test tubes were opened and fitted in the hole made in the wall of oviposition chamber in front of each treatment. The oviposition chamber was placed in a completely dark laboratory to eliminate the effect of light on moth’s behavior. The plants were removed from the oviposition chamber after the death of adults. The number of eggs deposited on the plant was counted. The results of 2nd experiment revealed that in all EPF and inoculation methods, the fecundity, egg fertility and growth index of C. partellus decreased with the increase in concentration being significantly higher at low concentration (5000ppm) and lower at higher concentration (20000ppm). Application of B. bassiana demonstrated that minimum fecundity (126.83), egg fertility (119.52) and growth index (15%) in C. partellus followed by M. anisopliae with fecundity (135.93), egg fertility (132.29) and growth index (17.50%) while V. lecanii show higher values of fecundity (137.37), egg fertility (1135.42) and growth index (20%). Overall leaf inoculation method showed least fecundity (123.89) with egg fertility (115.36) and growth index (14%) followed by whorl, shoot inoculation method and root inoculation method show higher values of fecundity, egg fertility and growth index.

Keywords: Beauveria bassiana, Chilo partellus, entomopathoganic, Metarhizium anisopliae, Verticillium lecanii

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Authors: Runlin Liu, Shilong Li

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China is a mountainous country, with two-thirds of its territory covered by plateaus, hills, and mountains, and nearly half of the cities and towns are distributed in mountainous areas. Compared with the environmental constraints in the development path of cities and towns in the plains, there are heterogeneities in aspects such as spatial characteristics, growth mode, and ecological protection and so on for mountain village and townlets, and the development path of mountain village and townlets has a bidirectional relationship between mountain space and economic growth. Based on classical growth theory, this article explores the two-dimensional coupling relation between space and economy in mountain village and townlets under background of rural rejuvenation. GIS technology is adopted in the study to analyze spatial trends and patterns, economical spatial differentiation characteristics of village and townlets. This powerful tool can also help differentiate and analyze limiting factors and assessment systems in the economic growth of village and townlets under spatial dimension of mountainous space. To make the research more specific, this article selects mountain village and townlets in Southwest China as the object of study; this provides good cases for analyzing parallel coupling mechanism of the duality structure system between economic growth and spatial expansion and discussing the path selection of spatial economic growth of mountain village and towns with multiple constraints. The research results can provide quantitative references for the spatial and economic development paths of mountain villages and towns, which is helpful in realizing efficient and high-quality development mode with equal emphasis on spatial and economic benefits for these type of towns.

Keywords: coupling mechanism, geographic information technology, mountainous town, synergetic development, spatial economy

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Authors: Jian Yang, Atsushi Yagi

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Tree-grass coexistence system is of great importance for forest ecology. Mathematical models are being proposed to study the dynamics of tree-grass coexistence and the stability of the systems. However, few of the models concentrates on spatial dynamics of the tree-grass coexistence. In this study, we modified an age-structured continuous-space population model for forests, obtaining an age-structured continuous-space population model for the tree-grass competition model. In the model, for thermal competitions, adult trees can out-compete grass, and grass can out-compete seedlings. We mathematically studied the model to make sure tree-grass coexistence solutions exist. Numerical experiments demonstrated that a fraction of area that trees or grass occupies can affect whether the coexistence is stable or not. We also tried regulating the mortality of adult trees with other parameters and the fraction of area trees and grass occupies were fixed; results show that the mortality of adult trees is also a factor affecting the stability of the tree-grass coexistence in this model.

Keywords: population-structured models, stabilities of ecosystems, thermal competitions, tree-grass coexistence systems

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Authors: Sohaib Z. Khan, Farrukh Mustahsan, Essam R. I. Mahmoud, S. H. Masood

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Materials or structures that contract laterally on the application of a compressive load and vice versa are said to be Auxetic materials which exhibit Negative Poisson’s Ratio (NPR). Numerous auxetic structures are proposed in the literature. One of the most studied periodic auxetic structure is the re-entrant honeycomb model. In this paper, a modified re-entrant model is proposed to enhance the auxetic behavior. The paper aimed to investigate the elastic behaviour of the proposed model to improve Young’s modulus and NPR by evaluating the analytical model. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is also conducted to support the analytical results. A significant increment in Young’s modulus and NPR can be achieved in one of the two orthogonal directions of the loading at the cost of compromising these values in other direction. The proposed modification resulted in lower relative densities when compared to the existing re-entrant honeycomb structure. A trade-off in the elastic properties in one direction at low relative density makes the proposed model suitable for uni-direction applications where higher stiffness and NPR is required, and strength to weight ratio is important.

Keywords: 2D model, auxetic materials, re-entrant honeycomb, negative Poisson's ratio

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Authors: Yunusa Aliyu Hadejia

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Cholera is a gastrointestinal disease caused by a bacterium called Vibrio Cholerae which spread as a result of eating food or drinking water contaminated with feaces from an infected person. In this work we proposed and analyzed the impact of isolating infected people and give them therapeutic treatment, the specific objectives of the research was to formulate a mathematical model of cholera transmission incorporating treatment class, to make analysis on stability of equilibrium points of the model, positivity and boundedness was shown to ensure that the model has a biological meaning, the basic reproduction number was derived by next generation matrix approach. The result of stability analysis show that the Disease free equilibrium was both locally and globally asymptotically stable when R_0< 1 while endemic equilibrium has locally asymptotically stable when R_0> 1. Sensitivity analysis was perform to determine the contribution of each parameter to the basic reproduction number. Numerical simulation was carried out to show the impact of the model parameters using MAT Lab Software.

Keywords: mathematical model, treatment, stability, sensitivity

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Authors: Nader Al-Rashidi, David Greenhalgh

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Mathematical modelling techniques are now being used by health organizations worldwide to help understand the likely impact that intervention strategies treatment options and combinations of these have on the prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the people who inject drugs (PWID) population. In this poster, we develop a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model to approximate the spread of the HCV in a PWID population that has been divided into two groups by time since onset of injection. The model assumes that after injection needles adopt the most infectious state of their previous state or that of the PWID who last injected with them. Using analytical techniques, we find that the model behaviour is determined by the basic reproductive number R₀, where R₀ = 1 is a critical threshold separating two different outcomes. The disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R₀ ≤ 1 and unstable if R₀ > 1. Additionally, we make some simulations where have confirmed that the model tends to this endemic equilibrium value with realistic parameter values giving an HCV prevalence.

Keywords: hepatitis C, people who inject drugs, HCV, PWID

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Authors: Guilherme B. B. Vieira, Rafael M. da Silva, Eliana T. P. Senna, Luiz A. S. Senna, Francisco J. Kliemann Neto

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Given the importance of ports as links in the global supply chains and because they are key elements to induce competitiveness in their hinterlands, the number of studies devoted to port governance, management and operations has increased in the last decades. Some of these studies address the port governance model as an element to improve coordination among the actors of the port logistics chain and to generate a better port performance. In this context, the present study analyzes the governance of Port of Santos through individual interviews with port managers, based on a conceptual model that considers the key dimensions associated with port governance. The results reinforce the usefulness of the applied model and highlight some existing improvement opportunities in the port studied.

Keywords: port governance, model, Port of Santos, managers’ perception

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Authors: Abdul Qader Melhm, Hussein Elrafidi

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This paper is dealing with studying the structural behavior of a steel-composite hollow reinforced concrete (RC) column model under combined eccentric loading. The composite model consists of an inner steel tube surrounded via a concrete core with longitudinal and circular transverse reinforcement. The radius of gyration according to American and Euro specifications be calculated, in order to calculate the thinnest ratio for this type of composite column model, in addition to the flexural rigidity. Formulas for interaction diagram is given for this type of model, which is a general loading conditions in which an element is exposed to an axial load with bending at the same time. The structural capacity of this model, elastic, plastic loads and strains will be computed and compared with experimental results. The total eccentric axial load of the column model is calculated based on the effective length KL available from several relationships provided in the paper. Furthermore, the inner tube experiences buckling failure after reaching its maximum strength will be investigated.

Keywords: column, composite, eccentric, inner tube, interaction, reinforcement

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Authors: Hassan Youssef Mohamed

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In this paper, we show new wave equations, and by using the equations, we concluded that the strong force and the weak force are not fundamental, but they are quantum effects for electromagnetism. This result is different from the current scientific understanding about strong and weak interactions at all. So, we introduce three evidences for our theory. First, we prove the asymptotic freedom phenomenon in the strong force by using our model. Second, we derive the nuclear shell model as an approximation of our model. Third, we prove that the leptons do not participate in the strong interactions, and we prove the short ranges of weak and strong interactions. So, our model is consistent with the current understanding of physics. Finally, we introduce the electron-positron model as the basic ingredients for protons, neutrons, and all matters, so we can study all particles interactions and nuclear interaction as many-body problems of electrons and positrons. Also, we prove the violation of parity conservation in weak interaction as evidence of our theory in the weak interaction. Also, we calculate the average of the binding energy per nucleon.

Keywords: new wave equations, the strong force, the grand unification theory, hydrogen atom, weak force, the nuclear shell model, the asymptotic freedom, electron-positron model, the violation of parity conservation, the binding energy

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Authors: I. A Tijani, Y. F Wu, C.W. Lim

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Concrete Damaged Plasticity Model (CDPM) is capable of modeling the stress-strain behavior of confined concrete. Nevertheless, the accuracy of the model largely depends on its parameters. To date, most research works mainly focus on the identification and modification of the parameters for fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) confined concrete prior to damage. And, it has been established that the FRP-strengthened concrete behaves differently to FRP-repaired concrete. This paper presents a modified plastic damage model within the context of the CDPM in ABAQUS for modelling of a uniformly FRP-confined repaired concrete under monotonic loading. The proposed model includes infliction damage, elastic stiffness, yield criterion and strain hardening rule. The distinct feature of damaged concrete is elastic stiffness reduction; this is included in the model. Meanwhile, the test results were obtained from a physical testing of repaired concrete. The dilation model is expressed as a function of the lateral stiffness of the FRP-jacket. The finite element predictions are shown to be in close agreement with the obtained test results of the repaired concrete. It was observed from the study that with necessary modifications, finite element method is capable of modeling FRP-repaired concrete structures.

Keywords: Concrete, FRP, Damage, Repairing, Plasticity, and Finite element method

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Authors: A. S. Mousa, F. Shoman

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We present a discrete game theoretical model with homogeneous individuals who make simultaneous decisions. In this model the strategy space of all individuals is a discrete and dichotomous set which consists of two strategies. We fully characterize the coherent, split and mixed strategies that form Nash equilibria and we determine the corresponding Nash domains for all individuals. We find all strategic thresholds in which individuals can change their mind if small perturbations in the parameters of the model occurs.

Keywords: coherent strategy, split strategy, pure strategy, mixed strategy, Nash equilibrium, game theory

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Authors: Hyun-Kyu Cho, Jun-Su Kim, Choon-Geun Huh, Geon Lee Young-Chul Park

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In this study, the relationship between flow properties and fluid projection distance look into connection for shape variations of foam monitor. A numerical analysis technique for fluid analysis of a foam monitor was developed for the prediction. Shape of foam monitor the flow path of fluid flow according to the shape, The fluid losses were calculated from flow analysis result.. The modified model used the length increase model of the flow path, and straight line of the model. Inlet pressure was 7 [bar] and external was atmosphere codition. am. The results showed that the length increase model of the flow path and straight line of the model was improved in the nozzle projection distance.

Keywords: injection performance, finite element method, foam monitor, Projection distance

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Authors: Bello Gonzalez, Setten Van M., Brouwer M.

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The chicken small intestine represents a dynamic and complex organ in which the enzymatic digestion and absorption of nutrients take place. The development of an in vitro fermentation chicken small intestinal model could be used as an alternative to explore the interaction between the microbiota and nutrient metabolism and to enhance the efficacy of targeting interventions to improve animal health. In the present study we have developed an in vitro fermentation chicken ileum microbiota model for unrevealing the complex interaction of ileum microbial community under physiological conditions. A two-vessel continuous fermentation process simulating in real-time the physiological conditions of the ileum content (pH, temperature, microaerophilic/anoxic conditions, and peristaltic movements) has been standardized as a proof of concept. As inoculum, we use a pool of ileum microbial community obtained from chicken broilers at the age of day 14. The development and validation of the model provide insight into the initial characterization of the ileum microbial community and its dynamics over time-related to nutrient assimilation and fermentation. Samples can be collected at different time points and can be used to determine the microbial compositional structure, dynamics, and diversity over time. The results of studies using this in vitro model will serve as the foundation for the development of a whole small intestine in vitro fermentation chicken gastrointestinal model to complement our already established in vitro fermentation chicken caeca model. The insight gained from this model could provide us with some information about the nutritional strategies to restore and maintain chicken gut homeostasis. Moreover, the in vitro fermentation model will also allow us to study relationships between gut microbiota composition and its dynamics over time associated with nutrients, antimicrobial compounds, and disease modelling.

Keywords: broilers, in vitro model, ileum microbiota, fermentation

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Authors: Sikiru Ademola Adewale, Joe Thomas, Bolanle Hafiz Matti, Tosin Ige

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This project demonstrates the implementation and use of an encoder-decoder model to perform a many-to-many mapping of video data to text captions. The many-to-many mapping occurs via an input temporal sequence of video frames to an output sequence of words to form a caption sentence. Data preprocessing, model construction, and model training are discussed. Caption correctness is evaluated using 2-gram BLEU scores across the different splits of the dataset. Specific examples of output captions were shown to demonstrate model generality over the video temporal dimension. Predicted captions were shown to generalize over video action, even in instances where the video scene changed dramatically. Model architecture changes are discussed to improve sentence grammar and correctness.

Keywords: decoder, encoder, many-to-many mapping, video captioning, 2-gram BLEU

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Authors: Alaa Morsy, Youssef Ibrahim

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Earthquake is one of the most catastrophic events, which makes enormous harm to properties and human lives. As a piece of a safe building configuration, reinforced concrete walls are given in structures to decrease horizontal displacements under seismic load. Shear walls are additionally used to oppose the horizontal loads that might be incited by the impact of wind. Reinforced concrete walls in residential buildings might have openings that are required for windows in outside walls or for doors in inside walls or different states of openings due to architectural purposes. The size, position, and area of openings may fluctuate from an engineering perspective. Shear walls can encounter harm around corners of entryways and windows because of advancement of stress concentration under the impact of vertical or horizontal loads. The openings cause a diminishing in shear wall capacity. It might have an unfavorable impact on the stiffness of reinforced concrete wall and on the seismic reaction of structures. Finite Element Method using software package ‘ANSYS ver. 12’ becomes an essential approach in analyzing civil engineering problems numerically. Now we can make various models with different parameters in short time by using ANSYS instead of doing it experimentally, which consumes a lot of time and money. Finite element modeling approach has been conducted to study the effect of opening shape, size and position in RC wall with different thicknesses under axial and lateral static loads. The proposed finite element approach has been verified with experimental programme conducted by the researchers and validated by their variables. A very good correlation has been observed between the model and experimental results including load capacity, failure mode, and lateral displacement. A parametric study is applied to investigate the effect of opening size, shape, position on different reinforced concrete wall thicknesses. The results may be useful for improving existing design models and to be applied in practice, as it satisfies both the architectural and the structural requirements.

Keywords: Ansys, concrete walls, openings, out of plane behavior, seismic, shear wall

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Authors: A. Bayaga

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This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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Authors: Morteza Giti

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As online shopping is becoming increasingly popular, computing customer lifetime value for better knowing the customers is also gaining more importance. Two distinct factors that can affect the value of a customer in the context of online shopping is the number of returned orders and payment method. Returned orders are those which have been shipped but not collected by the customer and are returned to the store. Payment method refers to the way that customers choose to pay for the price of the order which are usually two: Pre-pay and Cash-on-delivery. In this paper, a novel model called RFMSP is presented to calculated the customer lifetime value, taking these two parameters into account. The RFMSP model is based on the common RFM model while adding two extra parameter. The S represents the order status and the P indicates the payment method. As a case study for this model, the purchase history of customers in an online shop is used to compute the customer lifetime value over a period of twenty months.

Keywords: RFMSP model, AHP, customer lifetime value, k-means clustering, e-commerce

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Authors: Fangyuan Shao, Wei Liu, Deli Gao

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Polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bits have occupied a large market of unconventional oil and gas drilling. The application of PDC bits benefits from the efficient rock breaking of PDC cutters. In response to increasingly complex formations, many shaped cutters have been invited, but many of them have not been solved by the mechanism of rock breaking. In this paper, two kinds of PDC cutters: a new axe-shaped (NAS) cutter and cylindrical cutter (benchmark) were studied by laboratory experiments. NAS cutter is obtained by optimizing two sides of axe-shaped cutter with curved surfaces. All the cutters were put on a vertical turret lathe (VTL) in the laboratory for cutting tests. According to the cutting distance, the VTL tests can be divided into two modes: single-turn rotary cutting and continuous cutting. The cutting depth of cutting (DOC) was set at 1.0 mm and 2.0 mm in the former mode. The later mode includes a dry VTL test for thermal stability and a wet VTL test for wear resistance. Load cell and 3D optical profiler were used to obtain the value of cutting forces and wear area, respectively. Based on the findings of the single-turn rotary cutting VTL tests, the performance of A NAS cutter was better than the benchmark cutter on elastoplastic material cutting. The cutting forces (normal forces, tangential force, and radial force) and special mechanical energy (MSE) of a NAS cutter were lower than that of the benchmark cutter under the same condition. It meant that a NAS cutter was more efficient on elastoplastic material breaking. However, the wear resistance of a new axe-shaped cutter was higher than that of a benchmark cutter. The results of the dry VTL test showed that the thermal stability of a NAS cutter was higher than that of a benchmark cutter. The cutting efficiency can be improved by optimizing the geometric structure of the PDC cutter. The change of thermal stability may be caused by the decrease of the contact area between cutter and rock at given DOC. The conclusions of this paper can be used as an important reference for PDC cutters designers.

Keywords: axe-shaped cutter, PDC cutter, rotary cutting test, vertical turret lathe

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Authors: Martin Alexander Eder, Sergei Semenov

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Many glass-epoxy composite structures, such as large utility wind turbine rotor blades (WTBs), comprise of adhesive joints with typically thick bond lines used to connect the different components during assembly. Performance optimization of rotor blades to increase power output by simultaneously maintaining high stiffness-to-low-mass ratios entails intricate geometries in conjunction with complex anisotropic material behavior. Consequently, adhesive joints in WTBs are subject to multiaxial stress states with significant stress gradients depending on the local joint geometry. Moreover, the dynamic aero-elastic interaction of the WTB with the airflow generates non-proportional, variable amplitude stress histories in the material. Empiricism shows that a prominent failure type in WTBs is high cycle fatigue failure of adhesive bond line interfaces, which in fact over time developed into a design driver as WTB sizes increase rapidly. Structural optimization employed at an early design stage, therefore, sets high demands on computationally efficient interface fatigue models capable of predicting the critical locations prone for interface failure. The numerical stress-based interface fatigue model presented in this work uses the Drucker-Prager criterion to compute three different damage indices corresponding to the two interface shear tractions and the outward normal traction. The two-parameter Drucker-Prager model was chosen because of its ability to consider shear strength enhancement under compression and shear strength reduction under tension. The governing interface damage index is taken as the maximum of the triple. The damage indices are computed through the well-known linear Palmgren-Miner rule after separate rain flow-counting of the equivalent shear stress history and the equivalent pure normal stress history. The equivalent stress signals are obtained by self-similar scaling of the Drucker-Prager surface whose shape is defined by the uniaxial tensile strength and the shear strength such that it intersects with the stress point at every time step. This approach implicitly assumes that the damage caused by the prevailing multiaxial stress state is the same as the damage caused by an amplified equivalent uniaxial stress state in the three interface directions. The model was implemented as Python plug-in for the commercially available finite element code Abaqus for its use with solid elements. The model was used to predict the interface damage of an adhesively bonded, tapered glass-epoxy composite cantilever I-beam tested by LM Wind Power under constant amplitude compression-compression tip load in the high cycle fatigue regime. Results show that the model was able to predict the location of debonding in the adhesive interface between the webfoot and the cap. Moreover, with a set of two different constant life diagrams namely in shear and tension, it was possible to predict both the fatigue lifetime and the failure mode of the sub-component with reasonable accuracy. It can be concluded that the fidelity, robustness and computational efficiency of the proposed model make it especially suitable for rapid fatigue damage screening of large 3D finite element models subject to complex dynamic load histories.

Keywords: adhesive, fatigue, interface, multiaxial stress

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Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

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Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf=bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf=diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution

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Authors: Guorong Sui, Xingwei Jia, Fei Tong, Xiumin Gao

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Camera calibration is a fundamental issue of high precision noncontact measurement. And it is necessary to analyze and study the reliability and application range of its linear model which is often used in the camera calibration. According to the imaging features of monocular cameras, a camera model which is based on the image pixel coordinates and three dimensional space coordinates is built. Using our own customized template, the image pixel coordinate is obtained by the subpixel corner detection method. Without considering the aberration of the optical system, the feature extraction and linearity analysis of the line segment in the template are performed. Moreover, the experiment is repeated 11 times by constantly varying the measuring distance. At last, the linearity of the camera is achieved by fitting 11 groups of data. The camera model measurement results show that the relative error does not exceed 1%, and the repeated measurement error is not more than 0.1 mm magnitude. Meanwhile, it is found that the model has some measurement differences in the different region and object distance. The experiment results show this linear model is simple and practical, and have good linearity within a certain object distance. These experiment results provide a powerful basis for establishment of the linear model of camera. These works will have potential value to the actual engineering measurement.

Keywords: camera linear model, geometric imaging relationship, image pixel coordinates, three dimensional space coordinates, sub-pixel corner detection

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Naragain Phumchusri, Kittitach Pongpairoj

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Overbooking is a very useful revenue management technique that could help reduce costs caused by either undersales or oversales. In this paper, we propose an overbooking model for two types of cars that can minimize the total cost for car rental service. With two types of cars, there is an upgrade possibility for lower type to upper type. This makes the model more complex than one type of cars scenario. We have found that convexity can be proved in this case. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is conducted to observe the effects of relevant parameters on the optimal solution. Model simplification is proposed using multiple linear regression analysis, which can help estimate the optimal overbooking level using appropriate independent variables. The results show that the overbooking level from multiple linear regression model is relatively close to the optimal solution (with the adjusted R-squared value of at least 72.8%). To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, the total cost was compared with the case where the decision maker uses a naïve method for the overbooking level. It was found that the total cost from optimal solution is only 0.5 to 1 percent (on average) lower than the cost from regression model, while it is approximately 67% lower than the cost obtained by the naïve method. It indicates that our proposed simplification method using regression analysis can effectively perform in estimating the overbooking level.

Keywords: overbooking, car rental industry, revenue management, stochastic model

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Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat, A. Alhilo, L. Tamimi

Abstract:

Oil in water (O/W) emulsions are utilized extensively for cooling and lubricating cutting tools during parts machining. A robust Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) thermal-surfactants model, which provides a useful platform for exploring complex emulsions’ characteristics under variety of flow conditions, is used here for the study of the fluid behavior during conventional tools cooling. The transient thermal capabilities of the model are employed for simulating the effects of the flow conditions of O/W emulsions on the cooling of cutting tools. The model results show that the temperature outcome is slightly affected by reversing the direction of upper plate (workpiece). On the other hand, an important increase in effective viscosity is seen which supports better lubrication during the work.

Keywords: hybrid lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, surfactant-covered droplet, Marangoni stress

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

Abstract:

The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

Abstract:

Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

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Authors: Madina Hamiane

Abstract:

Modelling and simulation of an analogy function generator is presented based on a polynomial expansion model. The proposed function generator model is based on a 10th order polynomial approximation of any of the required functions. The polynomial approximations of these functions can then be implemented using basic CMOS circuit blocks. In this paper, a circuit model is proposed that can simultaneously generate many different mathematical functions. The circuit model is designed and simulated with HSPICE and its performance is demonstrated through the simulation of a number of non-linear functions.

Keywords: modelling and simulation, analog function generator, polynomial approximation, CMOS transistors

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Authors: V. Nikolov, I. Koseva, R. Sole, F. Diaz

Abstract:

Cr4+ doped oxide compounds are particularly preferred active media for solid-state lasers with a wide emission region from 1.1 to 1.6 µm. However, obtaining of single crystals of these compounds is often problematic. An alternative solution of this problem is replacing the single crystals with a transparent glassceramics containing the desired crystalline phase. Germanate compounds, especially Li2MgGeO4, Li2ZnGeO4 and Li2CaGeO4, are suitable for Cr4+ doped glass-ceramics because of their relatively low melting temperature and tetrahedral coordination of all ions. The latter ensures the presence of chromium in the 4+ valence. Cr doped Li2CaGeO4 g lass-ceramic was synthesized by thermal treating using glasses from the Li2O-CaO-GeO2-B2O3 system. Special investigations were carried out for optimizing the initial glasscomposition, as well as the thermal treated conditions. The synthesis of the glass ceramics was accompanied by appropriate characterization methods such as: XRD, TEM, EPR, UVVIS-NIR, emission spectra and time decay as main characteristic for the laser emission. From the systematic studies carried out in the four-component system Li2O-CaO-GeO2-B2O3 for establishing the Li2CaGeO4 crystallization area and suitable thermal treatment conditions, several main conclusions can be drawn: 1. The crystallization region of Li2CaGeO4 is relatively narrow, localized around the stoichiometric composition of the Li2CaGeO4 compound. 2. The presence of the glass former B2O3 strongly supports the obtaining of homogeneous glasses at relatively low temperatures, but it is also the reason for the crystallization of borate phases. 3. The crystallization of glasses during thermal treatment is related to the production of more than one phase and it is correct to speak for crystallization of a main phase and accompanying crystallization of other phases. The crystallization of a given phase is related to changing the composition of the residual glass and creating conditions for the crystallization of other phases. 4. The separate studies show that glass-ceramics with different crystallized phases in different quantitative ratios can be obtained from the same composition of glass playing by the thermal treatment conditions. In other words, the choice of temperature and time of thermal treatment of the glass is an extremely important condition, along with the optimization of the starting glass composition. As a result of the conducted research, an optimal composition of the starting glass and an optimal mode of thermal treatment were selected. Glass-ceramic with a main phase Li2CaGeO4 doped by Cr4+ was obtained. The obtained glass-ceramic possess very good properties containing up to 60 mass% of Li2CaGeO4, with an average size of nanoparticles of 20 nm and with transparency about 70 % relative to the transparency of the parent glass. The emission of the obtained glass-ceramics is in a wide range between 1050 and 1500 nm. The obtained results are the basis for further optimization of the glass-ceramic characteristics to obtain an effective laser-active medium with radiation in the 1.1-1.6 nm range.

Keywords: glass, glass-ceramics, multicomponent systems, NIR emission

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