Search results for: risk management model

Authors: Tony Jehi, Sujatha Rajaram, Nader majzoub, Joan Sabate

Abstract:

Aging significantly increases the incidence of various cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD). To combat CVD and its associated risk factors, it is imperative to adopt a healthy dietary pattern that is rife with beneficial nutrient and non-nutrient compounds. Unsaturated fats, specifically n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA), have cardio-protective effects; the opposite is true for saturated fatty acids. What role, if any, does the biomarker of fatty acid intake (specific fatty acids in the erythrocyte) play in predicting cardiometabolic risk among the elderly, a population highly susceptible to increased mortality and morbidity from CVD risk factors, remains unclear. This was a secondary analysis of the Walnuts and Healthy Aging Study. Briefly, elderly (n=192, mean age 69 y) participants followed their usual diet and were randomized into two groups to either eat walnuts daily or abstain from eating walnuts for a period of 2 years. The purpose was to identify potential associations between erythrocyte membrane fatty acids and cardiometabolic risk factors (body weight, blood pressure, blood lipids, and fasting glucose). Erythrocyte n-3 PUFA were inversely associated with total cholesterol (ß = -3.83; p= 0.02), triglycerides (ß = -7.66; p= <0.01), and fasting glucose (ß = -0.19; p=0.03). Specifically, erythrocyte ALA (ß= -1.59; P = 0.04) and DPA (ß= -0.62; P=0.04) were inversely associated with diastolic blood pressure and fasting glucose, respectively. N-6 PUFAs were positively associated with systolic blood pressure (ß=1.10; P=0.02). Mono-unsaturated fatty acids were positively associated with TAG (ß = 4.16; P=0.03). Total saturated fatty acids were not associated with any cardiometabolic risk factors. No association was found between any erythrocyte fatty acid and body weight. In conclusion, erythrocyte n-3 PUFA may be used as a biomarker to predict the cardiometabolic risk among healthy elders, providing support for the American Heart Association guidelines for including n-3 PUFA for preventing CVD.

Keywords: cardiometabolic diseases, erythrocyte fatty acids, elderly, n-3 PUFA

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Dalia Suša Vugec, Vesna Bosilj Vukšić, Ljubica Milanović Glavan

Abstract:

Business process management (BPM) is a well-known holistic discipline focused on managing business processes with the intention of achieving higher level of BPM maturity and better organizational performance. In recent period, traditional BPM faced some of its limitations like model-reality divide and lost innovation. Following latest trends, as an attempt to overcome the issues of traditional BPM, there has been an introduction of applying the principles of social software in managing business processes which led to the development of social BPM. However, there are not many authors or studies dealing with this topic so this study aims to contribute to that literature gap and to examine the link between the level of BPM maturity and the usage of social BPM. To meet these objectives, a survey within the companies with more than 50 employees has been conducted. The results reveal that the usage of social BPM is higher within the companies which achieved higher level of BPM maturity. This paper provides an overview, analysis and discussion of collected data regarding BPM maturity and social BPM within the observed companies and identifies the main social BPM principles.

Keywords: business process management, BPM maturity, process performance index, social BPM

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Rajesh Singh, Kailash Kale

Abstract:

In this paper, the Binomial process type occurrence of software failures is considered and failure intensity has been characterized by one parameter Rayleigh class Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM). The proposed SRGM is mathematical function of parameters namely; total number of failures i.e. η-0 and scale parameter i.e. η-1. It is assumed that very little or no information is available about both these parameters and then considering non-informative priors for both these parameters, the Bayes estimators for the parameters η-0 and η-1 have been obtained under square error loss function. The proposed Bayes estimators are compared with their corresponding maximum likelihood estimators on the basis of risk efficiencies obtained by Monte Carlo simulation technique. It is concluded that both the proposed Bayes estimators of total number of failures and scale parameter perform well for proper choice of execution time.

Keywords: binomial process, non-informative prior, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), rayleigh class, software reliability growth model (SRGM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 389

Authors: Israel Ropo Orimoloye, Johanes A. Belle, Olusola Adeyemi, Olusola O. Ololade

Abstract:

With more than 100,000 orbits during the past 20 years, Terra has significantly improved our knowledge of the Earth's climate and its implications on societies and ecosystems of human activity and natural disasters, including drought events. With Terra instrument's performance and the free distribution of its products, this study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and its spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the year 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the another. The result shows that from -24.5 to -25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80 to 120mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26° to -28° S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041 to 2050. This study emphasizes the strong spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and for environmental planning in the study area, which is characterised by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change-related drought impacts.

Keywords: remote sensing, drought disaster, climate scenario, assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

Abstract:

The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), prediction, stock market, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Eun Hui Bae, Sang Yeob Lim, Bongseong Kim, Tae Ryom Oh, Su Hyun Song, Sang Heon Suh, Hong Sang Choi, Eun Mi Yang, Chang Seong Kim, Seong Kwon Ma, Kyung-Do Han, Soo Wan Kim

Abstract:

Background: Recent hypertension guidelines have recommended lower blood pressure (BP) targets in high-risk patients. However, there are no specific guidelines based on age or systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, respectively). We aimed to assess the effects of age-related BP on the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with diabetes. Methods: A total of 2,563,870 patients with DM aged >20 years were selected from the Korean National Health Screening Program from 2009 to 2012 and followed up until the end of 2019. Participants were categorized into age and BP groups, and the hazard ratios (HRs) for ESRD were calculated. Results: During a median follow-up of 7.15 years, the incidence rates of ESRD increased with increasing SBP and DBP. The HR for ESRD was the highest in patients younger than 40 years of age with DBP ≥ 100 mmHg. The effect of SBP and DBP on ESRD development was attenuated with age (interaction p-value was <0.0001 for age and SBP and 0.0022 for age and DBP). The subgroup analysis for sex, anti-hypertension medication, and history of chronic kidney disease (CKD) showed higher HRs for ESRD among males younger than 40 years, not taking anti-hypertension medications and CKD compared to those among females older than 40 years, anti-hypertension medication and non-CKD groups. Conclusions: Higher SBP and DBP increase the risk of developing ESRD in patients with diabetes, and in particular, younger individuals face greater risk. Therefore, intensive BP management is warranted in younger patients to prevent ESRD.

Keywords: hypertension, young adult, end-stage renal disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, blood pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Mohammad A. Alolayan, John S. Evans, James K. Hammitt

Abstract:

The value of statistical life has been estimated for a middle eastern country with high economical subsidization system. In this study, in-person interviews were conducted on a stratified random sample to estimate the value of mortality risk. Double-bounded dichotomous choice questions followed by open-ended question were used in the interview to investigate the willingness to pay of the respondent for mortality risk reduction. High willingness to pay was found to be associated with high income and education. Also, females were found to have lower willingness to pay than males. The estimated value of statistical life is larger than the ones estimated for western countries where taxation system exists. This estimate provides a baseline for monetizing the health benefits for proposed policy or program to the decision makers in an eastern country. Also, the value of statistical life for a country in the region can be extrapolated from this this estimate by using the benefit transfer method.

Keywords: mortality, risk, VSL, willingness-to-pay

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Fahreza, Yudhi Herliansyah, Harnovinsah

Abstract:

This study aims to examine how management compensation and auditor reputation effect on corporate tax management in banking using a sample banking companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. At first, this study examines how the influence of management compensation on the implementation of tax management that may be made by management in order to improve the performance of the company. Second, this study also examines the effect of auditor reputation conducting audit on the implementation of the tax management. The population used in this study is the banking companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The method used was purposive sampling because the samples of this study have certain criteria that are tailored to the purpose of the study. Based on purposive sampling method, the number of samples in this study is 28 samples. Hypothesis tested using multiple regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that on the 5 % significance level, management compensation significantly influenced tax management as measured using the proxy book tax gap. Other result is management compensation does not significantly affect the tax management that measured using a proxy GAAP effective tax rate. In addition the auditor's reputation does significantly influence tax management as measured using the proxy book tax gap and GAAP effective tax rate.

Keywords: tax management, management compensation, auditor reputation, corporate characteristic

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Tauseef-ur-Rehman, Rao Zahid Abbas, Wasim Babar, Arbab Sikandar

Abstract:

Babesiosis is an infection due to the multiplication of tick borne parasite, Babesia sp., in erythrocytes of host (variety of vertebrates) including small ruminants and is responsible for decreased livestock output and hence economic losses. A cross-sectional study was designed in order to evaluate the prevalence of Babesia and its relation with various associated factors in district Toba Tek Singh, Central Punjab, Pakistan in 2009-2010. A total 10.84% (50/461) out of 461 examined cases for Babesia were found positive for Babesia infection. Month-wise peak prevalence was observed in July (17.95%), while no positive case was recorded in Dec-2009 and Jan-2010. The prevalence of infection in different goat breeds was found as non-significant (P < 0.05) for Babesia infection. The prevalence of Babesia was found significantly (P < 0.05) dependent to the goat age and sex. The feeding system, housing system, floor type and herd size revealed strong correlation with Babesia prevalence, while watering system and body conditions were found to be non-significant (P < 0.05), and hence it is suggested that with the improvement of management precautions Babesiosis can be avoided.

Keywords: Babesia, goat, prevalence, Pakistan, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 520

Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

Abstract:

Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Kamal Hammad, Alexey Fedorenko, Ivan Sergeichev

Abstract:

This study uses analytical modeling, experimental testing, and explicit numerical simulations to evaluate failure and spall damage in Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) composite confinement vessels. It investigates the response of composite materials to explosive loading dynamic impact, revealing varied failure modes. Hashin damage was used to model inplane failure, while the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) modeled inter-laminar damage. Results show moderate agreement between simulations and experiments regarding free surface velocity and failure stresses, with discrepancies due to wire alignment imperfections and wave reverberations in the experimental test. The findings can improve design and risk-reduction strategies in high-risk scenarios, leading to enhanced safety and economic efficiency in material assessment and structural design processes.

Keywords: explicit, numerical, spall, damage, CFRP, composite, vessels, explosive, dynamic, impact, Hashin, VCCT

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Franziska Mais, Till Gramberg

Abstract:

The paper presents the development of a sustainable business model for a platform-based application tailored for sawing companies in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The focus is on the integration of sustainability principles into the design of the business model to ensure a technologically advanced, legally sound, and economically efficient solution. Easy2IoT is a research project that aims to enable companies in the prefabrication sheet metal and sheet metal processing industry to enter the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) with a low-threshold and cost-effective approach. The methodological approach of Easy2IoT includes an in-depth requirements analysis and customer interviews with stakeholders along the value chain. Based on these insights, actions, requirements, and potential solutions for smart services are derived. The structuring of the business ecosystem within the application plays a central role, whereby the roles of the partners, the management of the IT infrastructure and services, as well as the design of a sustainable operator model are considered. The business model is developed using the value proposition canvas, whereby a detailed analysis of the requirements for the business model is carried out, taking sustainability into account. This includes coordination with the business model patterns, according to Gassmann, and integration into a business model canvas for the Easy2IoT product. Potential obstacles and problems are identified and evaluated in order to formulate a comprehensive and sustainable business model. In addition, sustainable payment models and distribution channels are developed. In summary, the article offers a well-founded insight into the systematic development of a sustainable business model for platform-based applications in SME sawmills, with a particular focus on the synergy of ecological responsibility and economic efficiency.

Keywords: business model, sustainable business model, IIoT, IIoT-platform, industrie 4.0, big data

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Asma Qudrat, Abid Ullah, Rafi Ullah, Ali Raza, Shah Zeb, Syed Ali Shan Ul-Haq, Shahkar Ahmed Shah, Attiya Hameed Khan, Saad Zaheer, Umama Qasim, Kiran Jamal, Zahoor khan

Abstract:

Objectives: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the major public health issue associated with high mortality and morbidity rate worldwide. Young patients with ACS have unique characteristics with different demographic profiles and risk factors. The precise diagnosis and early risk stratification is important in guiding treatment and predicting the prognosis of young patients with ACS. To evaluate the associated demographics, risk factors, and outcomes profile of ACS in young age patients. Methods: The research follow a retrospective design, the single centre study of patients diagnosis with the first event of ACS in young age (>18 and <40) were included. Data collection included demographic profiles, risk factors, and in-hospital outcomes of young ACS patients. The patient’s data was retrieved through Electronic Medical Records (EMR) of Peshawar Institute of Cardiology (PIC), and all characteristic were assessed. Results: In this study, 77% were male, and 23% were female patients. The risk factors were assessed with CAD and shown significant results (P < 0.01). The most common presentation was STEMI, with (45%) most in ACS young patients. The angiographic pattern showed single vessel disease (SVD) in 49%, double vessel disease (DVD) in 17% and triple vessel disease (TVD) was found in 10%, and Left Artery Disease (LAD) (54%) was present to be the most common involved artery. Conclusion: It is concluded that the male sex was predominant in ACS young age patients. SVD was the common coronary angiographic finding. Risk factors showed significant results towards CAD and common presentations.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, ST elevation myocardial infarction, unstable angina, acute coronary syndrome

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Melkamu A. Zeru, Aweke A. Mitiku, Endashaw Amuka

Abstract:

Background: Under-five mortality is the likelihood that a baby will pass away before turning exactly 5 years old, represented as a percentage per 1,000 live births. Exploring the spatial distribution and identifying the temporal pattern is important to reducing under-five child mortality globally, including in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality and the spatiotemporal variation in Ethiopian administrative zones. Method: This study used the 2000-2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data, which were collected using a two-stage sampling method. A total of 43,029 (10,873 in 2000, 9,861 in 2005, 11,654 in 2011, and 10,641 in 2016) weighted sample under-five child mortality was used. The space-time dynamic model was employed to account for spatial and time effects in 65 administrative zones in Ethiopia. Results: From the result of a general nesting spatial-temporal dynamic model, there was a significant space-time interaction effect [γ = -0.1444, 95 % CI (-0.6680, -0.1355)] for under-five mortality. The increase in the percentages of mothers illiteracy [𝛽 = 0.4501, 95% CI (0.2442, 0.6559)], not vaccinated[𝛽= 0.7681, 95% CI (0.5683, 0.9678)], unimproved water[𝛽= 0.5801, CI (0.3793, 0.7808)] were increased death rates for under five children while increased percentage of contraceptive use [𝛽= -0.6609, 95% CI (-0.8636, -0.4582)] and ANC visit > 4 times [𝛽= -0.1585, 95% CI(-0.1812, -0.1357)] were contributed to the decreased under-five mortality rate at the zone in Ethiopia. Conclusions: Even though the mortality rate for children under five has decreased over time, still there is still higher in different zones of Ethiopia. There exists spatial and temporal variation in under-five mortality among zones. Therefore, it is very important to consider spatial neighbourhoods and temporal context when aiming to avoid under-five mortality.

Keywords: under-five children mortality, space-time dynamic, spatiotemporal, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Helen S. Ghali, Haidy S. Ghali, Salma Ibrahim, Ossama Hosny, Hatem S. Elbehairy

Abstract:

Infrastructure systems are essential assets in any community; accordingly, authorities aim to maximize its life span while minimizing the life cycle cost. This requires studying the asset conditions throughout its operation and forming a cost-efficient maintenance strategy plan. The objective of this study is to develop a highway management system that provides medium-term maintenance plans with the minimum life cycle cost subject to budget constraints. The model is applied to data collected for the highway network in India with the aim to output a 5-year maintenance plan strategy from 2019 till 2023. The main element considered is the surface coarse, either rigid or flexible pavement. The model outputs a 5-year maintenance plan for each segment given the budget constraint while maximizing the new pavement condition rating and minimizing its life cycle cost.

Keywords: infrastructure, asset management, optimization, maintenance plan

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: Inten Meutia, Emylia Yuniarti

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of interest rate, the rate of return of Islamic banks on the amount of mudarabah deposits in Islamic banks. In analyzing the effect of rate of return in the Islamic banks and interest rate risk in the conventional banks, the 1-month Islamic deposit rate of return and 1 month fixed deposit interest rate of a total Islamic deposit are considered. Using data covering the period from January 2010 to Sepember 2013, the study applies the regression analysis to analyze the effect between variable and independence t-test to analyze the mean difference between rate of return and rate of interest. Regression analysis shows that rate of return have significantly negative influence on mudarabah deposits, while interest rate have negative influence but not significant. The result of independent t test shows that the interest rate is not different from the rate of return in Islamic Bank. It supports the hyphotesis that rate of return in Islamic banking mimic rate of interest in conventional bank. The results of the study have important implications on the risk management practices of the Islamic banks in Indonesia.

Keywords: conventional bank, interest rate, Islamic bank, rate of return

Procedia PDF Downloads 512

Authors: Khaled M.Naguib, Ahmed M.Noureldin

Abstract:

This paper aims to achieve many goals such as knowing (quantities produced- main properties- characteristics) of sludge produced from Bahr EL-Baqar drains treatment plant. This prediction or projection was made by laboratory analysis and modelling of Model samples from sludge depending on many studies that have previously done, second check the feasibility and do a risk analysis to know the best alternatives for reuse in producing secondary products that add value to sludge. Also, to know alternatives that have no value to add. All recovery methods are relatively very expensive and challenging to be done in this mega plant, so the recommendation from this study is to use the sludge as a coagulant to reduce some compounds or in secondary products. The study utilized sludge-cement replacement percentages of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50%. Produced tiles were tested for water absorption and breaking (bending) strength. The study showed that all produced tiles exhibited a water absorption ratio of around 10%. The study concluded that produced tiles, except for 50% sludge-cement replacement, comply with the breaking strength requirements of 2.8 MPa for tiles for external use.

Keywords: cement, tiles, water treatment sludge, breaking strength, absorption, heavy metals, risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

Abstract:

Over the past decade, the non-elective admissions in the UK have increased significantly. Taking into account limited resources (i.e. beds), the related service managers are obliged to manage their resources effectively due to the non-elective admissions which are mostly admitted to inpatient specialities via A&E departments. Geriatric medicine is one of specialities that have long length of stay for the non-elective admissions. This study aims to develop a discrete event simulation model to understand how possible increases on non-elective demand over the next 12 months affect the bed occupancy rate and to determine required number of beds in a geriatric medicine speciality in a UK hospital. In our validated simulation model, we take into account observed frequency distributions which are derived from a big data covering the period April, 2009 to January, 2013, for the non-elective admission and the length of stay. An experimental analysis, which consists of 16 experiments, is carried out to better understand possible effects of case studies and scenarios related to increase on demand and number of bed. As a result, the speciality does not achieve the target level in the base model although the bed occupancy rate decreases from 125.94% to 96.41% by increasing the number of beds by 30%. In addition, the number of required beds is more than the number of beds considered in the scenario analysis in order to meet the bed requirement. This paper sheds light on bed management for service managers in geriatric medicine specialities.

Keywords: bed management, bed occupancy rate, discrete event simulation, geriatric medicine, non-elective admission

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Jean Paul Muambangu Milambo, Peter Nyasulu, John Akudugu, Leonidas Ndayisaba, Joyce Tsoka-Gwegweni, Lebwaze Massamba Bienvenu, Mitshindo Mwambangu Chiro

Abstract:

In 2018, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were responsible for 48% of deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with cancer contributing to 5% of these deaths. There is a notable absence of cancer registries, capacity-building activities, budgets, and treatment roadmaps in the DRC. Current cancer estimates are primarily based on mathematical modeling with limited data from neighboring countries. This study aimed to assess cancer subtype prevalence in Kinshasa hospitals and compare these findings with WHO model estimates. Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted from 2018 to 2020 at HJ Hospitals in Kinshasa. Data were collected using American Cancer Society (ACS) questionnaires and physician logs. Descriptive analysis was performed using STATA version 16 to estimate cancer burden and provide evidence-based recommendations. Results: The results from the chart review at HJ Hospitals in Kinshasa (2018-2020) indicate that out of 6,852 samples, approximately 11.16% were diagnosed with cancer. The distribution of cancer subtypes in this cohort was as follows: breast cancer (33.6%), prostate cancer (21.8%), colorectal cancer (9.6%), lymphoma (4.6%), and cervical cancer (4.4%). These figures are based on histopathological confirmation at the facility and may not fully represent the broader population due to potential selection biases related to geographic and financial accessibility to the hospital. In contrast, the World Health Organization (WHO) model estimates for cancer prevalence in the DRC show different proportions. According to WHO data, the distribution of cancer types is as follows: cervical cancer (15.9%), prostate cancer (15.3%), breast cancer (14.9%), liver cancer (6.8%), colorectal cancer (5.9%), and other cancers (41.2%) (WHO, 2020). Conclusion: The data indicate a rising cancer prevalence in DRC but highlight significant gaps in clinical, biomedical, and genetic cancer data. The establishment of a population-based cancer registry (PBCR) and a defined cancer management pathway is crucial. The current estimates are limited due to data scarcity and inconsistencies in clinical practices. There is an urgent need for multidisciplinary cancer management, integration of palliative care, and improvement in care quality based on evidence-based measures.

Keywords: cancer, risk factors, DRC, gene-environment interactions, survivors

Procedia PDF Downloads 22

Authors: Ivana Kašparová, Emilie Pecharová

Abstract:

The experience of radiological contamination of land, especially after the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters have shown the need to explore possibilities to the capture of radionuclides in the area affected and to adapt the landscape management to this purpose ex –ante the considered accident in terms of prevention. The project‚ Minimizing the impact of radiation contamination on land in the emergency zone of Temelin NPP‘ (2012-2015), dealt with the possibility of utilization of wetlands as retention sites for water carrying radionuclides in the case of a radiation accident. A model artificial wetland was designed and adopted as a utility model by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Czech Republic. The article shows the conditions of construction of designed wetlands in the landscape with regard to minimizing the negative effect on agricultural production and enhancing the hydrological functionality of the landscape.

Keywords: artificial wetland, land use/ land cover, old maps, surface-to-water transport of radionuclides

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Samuel Emeka Anarah, Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Obasi Arinze

Abstract:

Quantifying the hydrological response due to changes in climate change is imperative for proper management of water resources within a watershed. The impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Ebony River (UER) watershed, South East Nigeria, was studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A climatological time series analysis from 1985 - 2014 using non-parametric test showed significant negative trends in precipitation and relative humidity trend while minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and wind speed showed significant positive trends. Future hypothetical land-use change scenarios (Scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4) representing urbanization and conversion of forest to agricultural land were combined with future downscaled climate model (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0) and simulated in SWAT model. Relative to the Baseline scenario (2005 - 2014), the results showed a decrease in streamflow by 10.29%, 26.20%, 11.80% and 26.72% for Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Model results suggest development of adaptation strategies to cope with the predicted hydrological conditions under future climate change in the watershed.

Keywords: climate change, hydrology, runoff, SWAT model

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Rafat Rob, Khaled Alotaibi, Dana Nour, Abdullah Albadrani, Abdulmohsen Mulhim

Abstract:

Power systems digitization solutions provides a comprehensive smart, cohesive, interconnected network, extensive connectivity between digital assets, physical power plants, and resources to form digital economies. However, digitization has exposed the classical air gapped power plants to the rapid spread of cyber threats and attacks in the process delaying and forcing many organizations to rethink their cyber security policies and standards before they can augment their operation the new advanced digital devices. Cyber Security requirements for power systems (and industry control systems therein) demand a new approach, unique methodology, and design process that is completely different to Cyber Security measures designed for the IT systems. In practice, Cyber Security strategy, as applied to power systems, tends to be closely aligned to those measures applied for IT system purposes. The differentiator for Cyber Security in terms of power systems are the physical assets and applications used, alongside the ever-growing rate of expansion within the industry controls sector (in comparison to the relatively saturated growth observed for corporate IT systems). These factors increase the magnitude of the cyber security risk within such systems. The introduction of smart devices and sensors along the grid initiate vulnerable entry points to the systems. Every installed Smart Meter is a target; the way these devices communicate with each other may instigate a Denial of Service (DoS) and Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack. Attacking one sensor or meter has the potential to propagate itself throughout the power grid reaching the IT network, where it may manifest itself as a malware infiltration.

Keywords: supply chain, cybersecurity, maturity model, risk, smart grid

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Dimitra V. Peristeri, Hussameldin M. Nour, Amiya Ahsan, Sameh Abogabal, Krishna K. Singh, Muhammad Shafique Sajid

Abstract:

Introduction: The use of optimal skin antiseptic agents for the prevention of surgical site infection (SSI) is of critical importance, especially during abdominal surgical procedures. Alcohol-based chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) and aqueous-based povidone-iodine (PVI) are the two most common skin antiseptics used nowadays. The objective of this article is to evaluate the effectiveness of alcohol-based CHG versus aqueous-based PVI used for skin preparation before abdominal surgery to reduce SSIs. Methods: Standard medical databases such as MEDLINE, Embase, Pubmed, and Cochrane Library were searched to find randomised, controlled trials (RCTs) comparing alcohol-based CHG skin preparation versus aqueous-based PVI in patients undergoing abdominal surgery. The combined outcomes of SSIs were calculated using an odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). All data were analysed using Review Manager (RevMan) Software 5.4, and the meta-analysis was performed with a random effect model analysis. Results: A total of 11 studies, all RCTs, were included (n= 12072 participants), recruiting adult patients undergoing abdominal surgery. In the random effect model analysis, the use of alcohol-based CHG in patients undergoing abdominal surgery was associated with a reduced risk of SSI compared to aqueous-based PVI (OR: 0.84; 95% CI [0.74, 0.96], z= 2.61, p= 0.009). Conclusion: Alcohol-based CHG may be more effective for preventing the risk of SSI compared to aqueous-based PVI agents in abdominal surgery. The conclusion of this meta-analysis may add a guiding value to reinforce current clinical practice guidelines.

Keywords: skin preparation, surgical site infection, chlorhexidine, skin antiseptics

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Thomas D. Collin, Rachel Cunningham, Bruce Jefferson, Raffaella Villa

Abstract:

Fats, oils and grease (FOG) are by-products of food preparation and cooking processes. FOG enters wastewater systems through a variety of sources such as households, food service establishments, and industrial food facilities. Over time, if no source control is in place, FOG builds up on pipe walls, leading to blockages, and potentially to sewer overflows which are a major risk to the Environment and Human Health. UK water utilities spend millions of pounds annually trying to control FOG. Despite UK legislation specifying that discharge of such material is against the law, it is often complicated for water companies to identify and prosecute offenders. Hence, it leads to uncertainties regarding the attitude to take in terms of FOG management. Research is needed to seize the full potential of implementing current practices. The aim of this research was to undertake a comprehensive study to document the extent of FOG problems in sewer lines and reinforce existing knowledge. Data were collected to develop a model estimating quantities of FOG available for recovery within Thames Water wastewater catchments. Geographical Information System (GIS) software was used in conjunction to integrate data with a geographical component. FOG was responsible for at least 1/3 of sewer blockages in Thames Water waste area. A waste-based approach was developed through an extensive review to estimate the potential for FOG collection and recovery. Three main sources were identified: residential, commercial and industrial. Commercial properties were identified as one of the major FOG producers. The total potential FOG generated was estimated for the 354 wastewater catchments. Additionally, raw and settled sewage were sampled and analysed for FOG (as hexane extractable material) monthly at 20 sewage treatment works (STW) for three years. A good correlation was found with the sampled FOG and population equivalent (PE). On average, a difference of 43.03% was found between the estimated FOG (waste-based approach) and sampled FOG (raw sewage sampling). It was suggested that the approach undertaken could overestimate the FOG available, the sampling could only capture a fraction of FOG arriving at STW, and/or the difference could account for FOG accumulating in sewer lines. Furthermore, it was estimated that on average FOG could contribute up to 12.99% of the primary sludge removed. The model was further used to investigate the relationship between estimated FOG and number of blockages. The higher the FOG potential, the higher the number of FOG-related blockages is. The GIS-based tool was used to identify critical areas (i.e. high FOG potential and high number of FOG blockages). As reported in the literature, FOG was one of the main causes of sewer blockages. By identifying critical areas (i.e. high FOG potential and high number of FOG blockages) the model further explored the potential for source-control in terms of ‘sewer relief’ and waste recovery. Hence, it helped targeting where benefits from implementation of management strategies could be the highest. However, FOG is still likely to persist throughout the networks, and further research is needed to assess downstream impacts (i.e. at STW).

Keywords: fat, FOG, GIS, grease, oil, sewer blockages, sewer networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 209

Authors: Afifa Aslam, Muhammad Ibrahim, Abid Mahmood, Muhammad Usman Alvi, Fariha Jabeen, Umara Tabassum

Abstract:

Many factors cause air pollution in Pakistan, which poses a significant threat to human health. Diesel fuel and gasoline motor vehicles, as well as industrial companies, pollute the air in Pakistan's cities. The study's goal is to determine the level of air pollution in a Pakistani industrial city and to establish risk levels for the health of the population. We measured the intensity of air pollution by chemical characterization and examination of air samples collected at stationary remark sites. The PM10 levels observed at all sampling sites, including residential, commercial, high-traffic, and industrial areas were well above the limits imposed by Pakistan EPA, the United States EPA, and WHO. We assessed the health risk via chemical factors using a methodology approved for risk assessment. All Igeo index values greater than one were considered moderately contaminated or moderately to severely contaminated. Heavy metals have a substantial risk of acute adverse effects. In Faisalabad, Pakistan, there was an enormously high risk of chronic effects produced by a heavy metal acquaintance. Concerning specified toxic metals, intolerable levels of carcinogenic risks have been determined for the entire population. As a result, in most of the investigated areas of Faisalabad, the indices and hazard quotients for chronic and acute exposure exceeded the permissible level of 1.0. In the current study, re-suspended roadside mineral dust, anthropogenic exhaust emissions from traffic and industry, and industrial dust were identified as major emission sources of elemental particulate contents. Because of the unacceptable levels of risk in the research area, it is strongly suggested that a comprehensive study of the population's health status as a result of air pollution should be conducted for policies to be developed against these risks.

Keywords: elemental composition, particulate pollution, Igeo index, health risk assessment, hazard quotient

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Matthew I. Bellgard

Abstract:

The field of bioinformatics has made, and continues to make, substantial progress and contributions to life science research and development. However, this paper contends that a systems approach integrates bioinformatics activities for any project in a defined manner. The application of critical control points in this bioinformatics systems approach may be useful to identify and evaluate points in a pathway where specified activity risk can be reduced, monitored and quality enhanced.

Keywords: bioinformatics, food security, personalized medicine, systems approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 424

Authors: Ifeyinwa Victor-Uadiale, Georgina Pearson, Sophie Witter, D. Reidpath

Abstract:

Introduction: Smoking, alcohol misuse, unhealthy diet, and physical inactivity are the primary drivers of noncommunicable diseases (NCD), including cardiovascular diseases, cancers, respiratory diseases, and diabetes, worldwide. Collectively, these diseases are the leading cause of all global deaths, most of which are premature, affecting people between 30 and 70 years. Empirical evidence suggests that these risk behaviors can be modified by community-based interventions (CBI). However, there is little insight into the mechanisms and contextual factors of successful community interventions that impact risk behaviours for chronic diseases. This study examined “Under what circumstances, for whom, and how, do community-based interventions modify smoking, alcohol use, unhealthy diet, and physical inactivity among adults”. Adopting the Capability (C), Opportunity (O), Motivation (M), Behavior (B) (COM-B) framework for behaviour change, it sought to: (1) identify the mechanisms through which CBIs could reduce tobacco use and alcohol consumption and increase physical activity and the consumption of healthy diets and (2) examine the contextual factors that trigger the impact of these mechanisms on these risk behaviours among adults. Methods: Pawson’s realist review method was used to examine the literature. Empirical evidence and theoretical understanding were combined to develop a realist program theory that explains how CBIs influence NCD risk behaviours. Documents published between 2002 and 2020 were systematically searched in five electronic databases (CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Medline, ProQuest Central, and PsycINFO). They were included if they reported on community-based interventions aimed at cardiovascular diseases, cancers, respiratory diseases, and diabetes in a global context; and had an outcome targeted at smoking, alcohol, physical activity, and diet. Findings: Twenty-nine scientific documents were retrieved and included in the review. Over half of them (n = 18; 62%) focused on three of the four risk behaviours investigated in this review. The review identified four mechanisms: capability, opportunity, motivation, and social support that are likely to change the dietary and physical activity behaviours in adults given certain contexts. There were weak explanations of how the identified mechanisms could likely change smoking and alcohol consumption habits. In addition, eight contextual factors that may affect how these mechanisms impact physical activity and dietary behaviours were identified: suitability to work and family obligations, risk status awareness, socioeconomic status, literacy level, perceived need, availability and access to resources, culture, and group format. Conclusion: The findings suggest that CBIs are likely to improve the physical activity and dietary habits of adults if the intervention function seeks to educate, incentivize, change the environment, and model the right behaviours. The review applies and advances theory, realist research, and the design and implementation of community-based interventions for NCD prevention.

Keywords: community-based interventions, noncommunicable disease, realist program theory, risk behaviors

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: W. Badla

Abstract:

A significant portion of the buildings constructed in Algeria is structural frames with infill panels which are usually considered as non structural components and are neglected in the analysis. However, these masonry panels tend to influence the structural response. Thus, these structures can be regarded as seismic risk buildings, although in the Algerian seismic code there is little guidance on the seismic evaluation of infilled frame buildings. In this study, three RC frames with 2, 4, and 8 story and subjected to three recorded Algerian accelerograms are studied. The diagonal strut approach is adopted for modeling the infill panels and a fiber model is used to model RC members. This paper reports on the seismic evaluation of RC frames with brick infill panels. The results obtained show that the masonry panels enhance the load lateral capacity of the buildings and the infill panel configuration influences the response of the structures.

Keywords: seismic design, RC frames, infill panels, non linear dynamic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 546

Authors: Ya-Li Tsai

Abstract:

Nitrogen is a vital element crucial for crop growth, significantly influencing crop yield. In rice cultivation, farmers often apply substantial nitrogen fertilizer to maximize yields. However, excessive nitrogen application increases the risk of lodging and pest infestation, leading to yield losses. Additionally, conventional flooded irrigation methods consume significant water resources, necessitating precise agricultural and intelligent water management systems. In this study, it leveraged physiological data and field images captured by unmanned aerial vehicles, considering fertilizer treatment and irrigation as key factors. Statistical models incorporating rice physiological data, yield, and vegetation indices from image data were developed. Missing physiological data were addressed using multiple imputation and regression methods, and regression models were established using principal component analysis and stepwise regression. Target nitrogen accumulation at key growth stages was identified to optimize fertilizer application, with the difference between actual and target nitrogen accumulation guiding recommendations for ear dressing dosage. Field experiments conducted in 2022 validated the recommended ear dressing dosage, demonstrating no significant difference in final yield compared to traditional fertilizer levels under alternate wetting and drying irrigation. These findings highlight the efficacy of applying recommended dosages based on fertilizer decision models, offering the potential for reduced fertilizer use while maintaining yield in rice cultivation.

Keywords: intelligent fertilizer management, nitrogen top and ear dressing fertilizer, rice, yield optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Ahmed Abbou

Abstract:

This paper present a sensorless controller designed by the backstepping approach for the speed control of induction motor. In this strategy of control, we also combined the method Fuzzy MRAS to estimate the rotor speed and the observer type Luenburger to observe Rotor flux. The control model involves a division by the flux variable that may lead to unbounded solutions. Such a risk is avoided by basing the controller design on Lyapunov function that accounts for the model singularity. On the other hand, this mixed method gives better results in Sensorless operation and especially at low speed. The response time at 5% of the flux is 20ms while the error between the speed with sensor and the estimated speed remains in the range of ±0.8 rad/s for the rated functioning and ±1.5 rad/s for low speed.

Keywords: backstepping approach, fuzzy logic, induction motor, luenburger observer, sensorless MRAS

Procedia PDF Downloads 373