Search results for: usability risk

Authors: Akash Soogumbur

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Tourniquets are commonly used in orthopaedic surgery to provide hemostasis during procedures on the upper and lower limbs. However, there is a risk of complications associated with tourniquet use, such as nerve damage, skin necrosis, and compartment syndrome. The British Orthopaedic Association (BOAST) guidelines recommend the use of tourniquets at a pressure of 300 mmHg or less for a maximum of 2 hours. Research Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a tourniquet checklist in improving compliance with the BOAST guidelines. Methodology: This was a retrospective study of all orthopaedic procedures performed at a single institution over a 12-month period. The study population included patients who had a tourniquet applied during surgery. Data were collected from the patients' medical records, including the duration of tourniquet use, the pressure used, and the method of exsanguination. Findings: The results showed that the use of the tourniquet checklist significantly improved compliance with the BOAST guidelines. Prior to the introduction of the checklist, compliance with the guidelines was 83% for the duration of tourniquet use and 73% for pressure used. After the introduction of the checklist, compliance increased to 100% for both duration of tourniquet use and pressure used. Theoretical Importance: The findings of this study suggest that the use of a tourniquet checklist can be an effective way to improve compliance with the BOAST guidelines. This is important because it can help to reduce the risk of complications associated with tourniquet use. Data Collection: Data were collected from the patients' medical records. The data included the following information: Patient demographics, procedure performed, duration of tourniquet use, pressure used, method of exsanguination. Analysis Procedures: The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The compliance with the BOAST guidelines was calculated as the percentage of patients who met the guidelines for the duration of tourniquet use and pressure used. Question Addressed: The question addressed by this study was whether the use of a tourniquet checklist could improve compliance with the BOAST guidelines. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that the use of a tourniquet checklist can be an effective way to improve compliance with the BOAST guidelines. This is important because it can help to reduce the risk of complications associated with tourniquet use.

Keywords: tourniquet, pressure, duration, complications, surgery

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Authors: Atef Mohamed Kamel Ahmed

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House crows (Corvus splendens) have become well-established in Ismailia Governorate, Egypt, where they pose several and serious impacts on native biodiversity, ecosystems and humans health. However, there is a lack of literature on the status and effects of invasive birds in Egypt. Over the past 10 years in Ismailia, House crow have increased at a rate approaching (60000 birds)15% per annum; if this were allowed to continue, the population now 10909 birds and will exceed more by 2013, probably accompanied by an increase in geographical distribution in all Suez canal regions and an exacerbation of the problems caused. Population control is recommended, involving improvements in urban hygiene and the capture of adult crows using stupefying baits. Suitable baits and stupefacient doses were identified and these should be used annually, just before the breeding season. Control should be accompanied by studies of relevant aspects of the biology of house crows in Ismailia Governorate.

Keywords: environmental impact t, non-native invasive species, House crow birds, risk management, Ismailia-Egypt

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Authors: Grace Fangmin Tan, Elaine Yiling Tay, Elizabeth Huiwen Tham, Andrea Wei Ching Yeo

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Background: While accidental poisonings in children may seem unavoidable, knowledge of circumstances surrounding such incidents and identification of risk factors is important in the development of secondary prevention strategies. Some risk factors include age of the child, lack of adequate supervision and improper storage of substances. The aim of this study is to assess risk factors and circumstances influencing outcomes in these children. Methodology: A retrospective medical record review of all accidental poisoning cases presenting to the Children’s Emergency at National University Hospital (NUH), Singapore between January 2014 and December 2015 was conducted. Information on demographics, poisoning circumstances and clinical outcomes were collected. Results: Ninety-nine of a total of 186 poisoning cases were accidental ingestions, with a mean age of 4.7 (range 0.4 to 18.3 years). The gender distribution is rather equal with 52(52.5%) females and 47(47.5%) males. Seventy-nine (79.8%) were self-administered by the child and in 20 cases (20.2%), the substance was administered erroneously by caregivers 12/20 (60.0%) of whom were given the wrong drug dose while 8/20 (40.0%) were given the wrong substance. Self-administration was associated with presentation to the ED within 12 hours (p=0.027, OR 6.65, 95% CI 1.24-35.72). Notably, 94.9% of the cases involved substances kept within reach of the child. Sixty-nine (82.1%) had the substance kept in the original container, 3(3.6%) in food containers, 8(9.5%) in other containers and 4(4.8%) without a container. Of the 50 cases with information on labelling, 40/50(80.0%) were accurately labelled, 2/50 (4.0%) wrongly labelled, and 8/50 (16.0%) were unlabelled. Implicated substances included personal care products (11.1%), household cleaning products (3.0%), and different classes of drugs such as paracetamol (22.2%), antihistamines (17.2%) and sympathomimetics (8.1%). Children < 3 years of age were 4.8 times more likely to be poisoned by household substances than children >3 years of age (p=0.009, 95% CI 1.48-15.77). Prehospital interventions were more likely to have been done in poisoning with household substances (p=0.005, OR 6.12 95% CI 1.73-21.68). Fifty-nine (59.6%) were asymptomatic, 34 (34.3%) had a Poisoning Severity Score (PSS) grade of 1 (minor) and 6 (6.1%) grade 2 (moderate). Older children were 9.3 times more likely to be symptomatic (p<0.001, 95% CI 3.15-27.25). Thirty (32%) required admission. Conclusion: A significant proportion of accidental poisoning cases were due to medication administration errors by caregivers, which should be preventable. Risk factors for accidental poisoning included lack of adequate caregiver supervision, improper labelling and young age of the child. There is an urgent need to improve caregiver counselling during medication dispensing as well as to educate caregivers on basic child safety measures in the home to prevent future accidental poisonings.

Keywords: accidental, caregiver, paediatrics, poisoning

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Authors: Suliman Khan, Rabeea Siddique, Mengzhou Xue

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Background: Patients with neurological disorders often display altered circadian rhythms. The disrupted circadian rhythms through chronic jetlag or shiftwork are thought to increase the risk and severity of human disease, including cancer, psychiatric, and related brain diseases. In this study, we investigated the impact of shiftwork or chronic jetlag (CJL) like conditions on mice’s brains. Transcriptome profiling based on RNA sequencing revealed that genes associated with serious neurological disorders were differentially expressed in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and prefrontal cortex (PFC). According to the qPCR analysis, several key regulatory genes associated with neurological disorders were significantly altered in the NAc, PFC, hypothalamus, hippocampus, and striatum. Serotonin levels and the expression levels of serotonin transporters and receptors were significantly altered in mice treated with CJL. Overall, these results indicate that CJL may increase the risk of neurological disorders by disrupting the key regulatory genes, biological functions, serotonin, and corticosterone. These molecular linkages can further be studied to investigate the mechanism underlying CJL or shiftwork-mediated neurological disorders in order to develop treatment strategies.

Keywords: chronic jetlag, molecular profiles, brain disorders, circadian rhythms

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Authors: Merve Denizci Nazligul

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Dancers seem to have much higher risk levels for the development of eating disorders, compared to non-dancing counterparts. In a remarkably competitive nature of dance environment, perfectionism and emotion regulation difficulties become inevitable risk factors. Moreover, early maladaptive schemas are associated with various eating disorders. In the current study, it was aimed to investigate the mediating role of difficulties with emotion regulation on the relationship between perfectionism and disordered eating behaviors, as well as on the relationship between early maladaptive schemas and disordered eating behaviors. A total of 70 volunteer dancers (n = 47 women, n = 23 men) were recruited in the study (M age = 25.91, SD = 8.9, range 19–63) from the university teams or private clubs in Turkey. The sample included various types of dancers (n = 26 ballets or ballerinas, n =32 Latin, n = 10 tango, n = 2 hiphop). The mean dancing hour per week was 11.09 (SD = 7.09) within a range of 1-30 hours. The participants filled a questionnaire set including demographic information form, Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire, Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale, three subscales (Emotional Inhibition, Unrelenting Standards-Hypercriticalness, Approval Seeking-Recognition Seeking) from Young Schema Questionnaire-Short Form-3 and Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale. The mediation hypotheses were tested using the PROCESS macro in SPSS. The findings revealed that emotion regulation difficulties significantly mediated the relationship between three distinct subtypes of perfectionism and emotional eating. The results of the Sobel test suggested that there were significant indirect effects of self-oriented perfectionism (b = .06, 95% CI = .0084, .1739), other-oriented perfectionism (b = .15, 95% CI = .0136, .4185), and socially prescribed perfectionism (b = .09, 95% CI = .0104, .2344) on emotional eating through difficulties with emotion regulation. Moreover, emotion regulation difficulties significantly mediated the relationship between emotional inhibition and emotional eating (F(1,68) = 4.67, R2 = .06, p < .05). These results seem to provide some evidence that perfectionism might become a risk factor for disordered eating behaviors when dancers are not able to regulate their emotions. Further, gaining an understanding of how inhibition of emotions leads to inverse effects on eating behavior may be important to develop intervention strategies to manage their disordered eating patterns in risk groups. The present study may also support the importance of using unified protocols for transdiagnostic approaches which focus on identifying, accepting, prompting to express maladaptive emotions and appraisals.

Keywords: dancers, disordered eating, emotion regulation difficulties, perfectionism

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Authors: Joanna Błach, Anna Doś, Maria Gorczyńska, Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala

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Financial innovations can be regarded as the cause and the effect of the evolution of the financial system. Most of financial innovations are created by various financial institutions for their own purposes and needs. However, due to their diversity, financial innovations can be also applied by various business entities (other than financial institutions). This paper focuses on the potential application of financial innovations by non-financial companies. It is assumed that financial innovations may be effectively applied in all fields of corporate financial decisions integrating financial management with the risk management process. Appropriate application of financial innovations may enhance the development of the company and increase its value by improving its financial situation and reducing the level of risk. On the other hand, misused financial innovations may become the source of extra risk for the company threatening its further operation. The main objective of the paper is to identify the major types of financial innovations offered to non-financial companies by the banking system in Poland. It also aims at identifying the main factors determining the creation of financial innovations in the banking system in Poland and indicating future directions of their development. This paper consists of conceptual and empirical part. Conceptual part based on theoretical study is focused on the determinants of the process of financial innovations and their application by the non-financial companies. Theoretical study is followed by the empirical research based on the analysis of the actual offer of the 20 biggest banks operating in Poland with regard to financial innovations offered to SMEs and large corporations. These innovations are classified according to the main functions of the integrated financial management, such as: Financing, investment, working capital management and risk management. Empirical study has proved that the biggest banks operating in the Polish market offer to their business customers many types and classes of financial innovations. This offer appears vast and adequate to the needs and purposes of the Polish non-financial companies. It was observed that financial innovations pertained to financing decisions dominate in the banks’ offer. However, due to high diversification of the offered financial innovations, business customers may effectively apply them in all fields and areas of integrated financial management. It should be underlined, that the banks’ offer is highly dispersed, which may limit the implementation of financial innovations in the corporate finance. It would be also recommended for the banks operating in the Polish market to intensify the education campaign aiming at increasing knowledge about financial innovations among business customers.

Keywords: banking products and services, banking sector in Poland, corporate financial management, financial innovations, theory of innovation

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Authors: Mengestie Mulugeta Belay, Serebe Abay Gebrie, Biruk Lambbiso Wamisho, Amare Worku

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Background: Low back pain (LBP) related to nursing profession, is a very common public health problem throughout the world. Various risk factors have been implicated in the etiology and LBP is assumed to be of multi-factorial origin as individual, work-related and psychosocial factors can contribute to its development. Objectives: To determine the prevalence and to identify risk factors of LBP among nurses working in Addis Ababa City Public Hospitals, Ethiopia, in the year 2015. Settings: Addis Ababa University, Black-Lion (‘Tikur Anbessa’) Hospital-BLH, is the country’s highest tertiary level referral and teaching Hospital. The three departments in connection with this study: Radiology, Pathology and Orthopedics, run undergraduate and residency programs and receive referred patients from all over the country. Methods: A cross-sectional study with internal comparison was conducted throughout the period October-December, 2015. Sample was chosen by simple random sampling technique by taken the lists of nurses from human resource departments as a sampling frame. A well-structured, pre-tested and self-administered questionnaire was used to collect quantifiable information. The questionnaire included socio-demographic, back pain features, consequences of back pain, work-related and psychosocial factors. The collected data was entered into EpiInfo version 3.5.4 and was analyzed by SPSS. A probability level of 0.05 or less and 95% confidence level was used to indicate statistical significance. Ethical clearance was obtained from all respected administrative bodies, Hospitals and study participants. Results: The study included 395 nurses and gave a response rate of 91.9%. The mean age was 30.6 (±8.4) years. Majority of the respondents were female (285, 72.2%). Nearly half of the participants (n=181, 45.8% (95% CI (40.8%- 50.6%))) were complained low back pain. There was statistical significant association between low back pain and working shift, physical activities at work; sleep disturbance and felt little pleasure by doing things. Conclusion: A high prevalence of low back pain was found among nurses working in Addis Ababa Public Hospitals. Recognition and preventive measures like providing resting periods should be taken to reduce the risk of low back pain in nurses working in Public hospitals.

Keywords: low back pain, risk factors, nurses, public hospitals

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Authors: I. Grigoratos, R. Monteiro

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Regions with a significant percentage of non-seismically designed buildings and reduced urban planning are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In this context, the project ‘Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria’ (ITERATE) aims at seismic risk mitigation in Algeria. Past earthquakes in North Algeria caused extensive damages, e.g. the El Asnam 1980 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 and Boumerdes 2003 Mw 6.8 earthquakes. This paper will address a number of proposed developments and considerations made towards a further improvement of the component of seismic hazard. In specific, an updated earthquake catalog (until year 2018) is compiled, and new conversion equations to moment magnitude are introduced. Furthermore, a network-based method for the estimation of the spatial and temporal distribution of the minimum magnitude of completeness is applied. We found relatively large values for M_c, due to the sparse network, and a nonlinear trend between M_w and body wave (m_b) or local magnitude (M_L), which are the most common scales reported in the region. Lastly, the resulting b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution is sensitive to the declustering method.

Keywords: conversion equation, magnitude of completeness, seismic events, seismic hazard

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Authors: Alina Smalinskiene Janina Petkeviciene, Jurate Klumbiene, Vilma Kriaucioniene, Vaiva Lesauskaite

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The worldwide prevalence of obesity has been increasing dramatically in the last few decades, and Lithuania is no exception. In 2012, every fifth adult (19% of men and 20.5 % of women) was obese and every third was overweight Association studies have highlighted the influence of SNPs in obesity, with particular focus on FTO rs9939609. Thus far, no data on the possible association of this SNP to obesity in the adult Lithuanian population has been reported. Here, for the first time, we demonstrate an association between the FTO rs9939609 homozygous AA genotype and increased BMI when compared to homozygous TT. Furthermore, a positive association was determined between the FTO rs9939609 variant and risk of metabolic syndrome. Background: This study aimed to examine the associations between the fat mass and obesity associated (FTO) gene rs9939609 variant with obesity and metabolic syndrome in Lithuanian adult population. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional health survey was carried out in randomly selected municipalities of Lithuania. The random sample was obtained from lists of 25–64 year-old inhabitants. The data from 1020 subjects were analysed. The rs9939609 SNP of the FTO gene was assessed using TaqMan assays (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA, USA). The Applied Biosystems 7900HT Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction System was used for detecting the SNPs. Results: The carriers of the AA genotype had the highest mean values of BMI and waist circumference (WC) and the highest risk of obesity. Interactions ‘genotype x age’ and ‘genotype x physical activity’ in determining BMI and WC were shown. Neither lipid and glucose levels, nor blood pressure were associated with the rs9939609 independently of BMI. In the age group of 25-44 years, association between the FTO genotypes and metabolic syndrome was found. Conclusion: The FTO rs9939609 variant was significantly associated with BMI and WC, and with the risk of obesity in Lithuanian population. The FTO polymorphism might have a greater influence on weight status in younger individuals and in subjects with a low level of physical activity.

Keywords: obesity metabolic syndrome, FTO gene, polymorphism, Lithuania

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Authors: Kathleen Canul

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Bullying is on the rise according to several recent studies. Workplace bullying has garnered less attention than other forms yet incidence rates range from 35-45%. The consequences of being bullied at work are broad, ranging from physiological to psychological to occupational. As the bullying progresses, employees begin to exhibit physical and psychological symptoms. Blood pressure rises, along with other cardiac related concerns. For men, covert coping with job unfairness was associated with a four-fold risk of heart attack and death. Gastrointestinal distress, headaches, muscle tension, sleep disorders and exhaustion are also common. Workplace bullying appears to contribute to the risk of subsequent psychotropic medication, as well. Emotionally, anxiety and depression increase along with lowered self-esteem and problems concentrating on the duties of the job. In an attempt to cope, individuals may succumb to unhealthy practices involving food, alcohol and other drugs. Patterns of bullying vary by gender, race, and ethnicity, as well as sexual orientation, with women, ethnic minorities and LGBTQ employees reporting higher rates of bullying in the workplace. Not only is this an issue of inequity on the job, but also a problem of health disparities as there are few mental health professionals confident and competent in dealing with workplace bullying issues, and the lack of culturally competent clinicians exacerbates this inequality in receiving adequate care. Alone, the topic of workplace bullying is not unique; however, the diverse experiences of underrepresented groups who disproportionately are affected on the job and suffer untreated, health related concerns represent a significant and emerging problem requiring attention. Conference participants who have experienced, witnessed or help those bullied on the job would benefit most from this review of the literature on the consequences of bullying experienced by diverse and underrepresented groups in the workplace.

Keywords: bullying, ethnic minorities, health disparities, workplace conflict

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Authors: Sreejith Gopinath, Aspen Olmsted

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This paper is based on our previous work that proposed a risk-transference-based architecture for healthcare systems to store sensitive data outside the system boundary, rendering the system unattractive to would-be bad actors. This architecture also allows a compromised system to be abandoned and a new system instance spun up in place to ensure business continuity without paying a ransom or engaging with a bad actor. This paper delves into the details of various attacks we simulated against the prototype system. In the paper, we discuss at length the time and computational costs associated with storing and retrieving data in the prototype system, abandoning a compromised system, and setting up a new instance with existing data. Lastly, we simulate some analytical workloads over the data stored in our specialized data storage system and discuss the time and computational costs associated with running analytics over data in a specialized storage system outside the system boundary. In summary, this paper discusses the total costs of data storage, access, and analytics incurred with the proposed architecture.

Keywords: cybersecurity, healthcare, ransomware, resilience, risk transference

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Authors: D. Naranchimeg, G. Ulziisaikhan

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Student dropout problem has not been recently investigated within the Mongolian higher education. A student dropping out is a personal decision, but it may cause unemployment and other social problems including low quality of life because students who are not completed a degree cannot find better-paid jobs. The research aims to determine percentage of at-risk students, and understand reasons for dropouts and to find a way to predict. The study based on the students of the Mongolian National University of Education including its Arkhangai branch school, National University of Mongolia, Mongolian University of Life Sciences, Mongolian University of Science and Technology, Mongolian National University of Medical Science, Ikh Zasag International University, and Dornod University. We conducted the paper survey by method of random sampling and have surveyed about 100 students per university. The margin of error - 4 %, confidence level -90%, and sample size was 846, but we excluded 56 students from this study. Causes for exclusion were missing data on the questionnaire. The survey has totally 17 questions, 4 of which was demographic questions. The survey shows that 1.4% of the students always thought to dropout whereas 61.8% of them thought sometimes. Also, results of the research suggest that students’ dropouts from university do not have relationships with their sex, marital and social status, and peer and faculty climate, whereas it slightly depends on their chosen specialization. Finally, the paper presents the reasons for dropping out provided by the students. The main two reasons for dropouts are personal reasons related with choosing wrong study program, not liking the course they had chosen (50.38%), and financial difficulties (42.66%). These findings reveal the importance of early prevention of dropout where possible, combined with increased attention to high school students in choosing right for them study program, and targeted financial support for those who are at risk.

Keywords: at risk students, dropout, faculty climate, Mongolian universities, peer climate

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Authors: Ratna Kuswardani

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This paper aims to study the impact of recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on 6 selected emerging Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, and South Korea). We first figure out the contagion of GFC from the US and Europe to the selected emerging Asian countries by studying the tail dependence of market stock returns between those countries. We apply the concept of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the dependence between multiple returns series of variables under examination. We explore the factors causing the contagion between the regions. We find dependencies between markets that are influenced by their size, especially for large markets in emerging Asian countries that tend to have a higher dependency to the market in the more advanced country such as the U.S. and some countries in Europe. The results also suggest that the dependencies between market returns and bank stock returns in the same region tend to be higher than dependencies between these returns across two different regions. We extend our analysis by studying the impact of GFC on the systemic in the banking system. We also find that larger institution has more dependencies with the market stock, suggesting that larger size bank can cause disruption in the market. Further, the higher probability of extreme loss can be seen during the crisis period, which is shown by the non-linear dependency between the pre-crisis and the post-crisis period. Finally, our analysis suggests that systemic risk appears in the domestic banking systems in emerging Asia, as shown by the extreme dependencies within banks in the system. Overall, our results provide caution to policy makers and investors alike on the possible contagion of the impact of global financial crisis across different markets.

Keywords: contagion, extreme value theory, global financial crisis, systemic risk

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Authors: Housein Deli, Loui Al-Shrouf, Hammoud Al Joumaa, Mohieddine Jelali

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When forming metallic materials, fluctuations in material properties, process conditions, and wear lead to deviations in the component geometry. Several hundred features sometimes need to be measured, especially in the case of functional and safety-relevant components. These can only be measured offline due to the large number of features and the accuracy requirements. The risk of producing components outside the tolerances is minimized but not eliminated by the statistical evaluation of process capability and control measurements. The inspection intervals are based on the acceptable risk and are at the expense of productivity but remain reactive and, in some cases, considerably delayed. Due to the considerable progress made in the field of condition monitoring and measurement technology, permanently installed sensor systems in combination with machine learning and artificial intelligence, in particular, offer the potential to independently derive forecasts for component geometry and thus eliminate the risk of defective products - actively and preventively. The reliability of forecasts depends on the quality, completeness, and timeliness of the data. Measuring all geometric characteristics is neither sensible nor technically possible. This paper, therefore, uses the example of car seat rail production to discuss the necessary first step of feature selection and reduction by correlation analysis, as otherwise, it would not be possible to forecast components in real-time and inline. Four different car seat rails with an average of 130 features were selected and measured using a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). The run of such measuring programs alone takes up to 20 minutes. In practice, this results in the risk of faulty production of at least 2000 components that have to be sorted or scrapped if the measurement results are negative. Over a period of 2 months, all measurement data (> 200 measurements/ variant) was collected and evaluated using correlation analysis. As part of this study, the number of characteristics to be measured for all 6 car seat rail variants was reduced by over 80%. Specifically, direct correlations for almost 100 characteristics were proven for an average of 125 characteristics for 4 different products. A further 10 features correlate via indirect relationships so that the number of features required for a prediction could be reduced to less than 20. A correlation factor >0.8 was assumed for all correlations.

Keywords: long-term SHM, condition monitoring, machine learning, correlation analysis, component prediction, wear prediction, regressions analysis

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Authors: Claudeline D. Cellan

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Development is multifaceted, and efforts to hasten growth in all these facets have been gaining traction in recent years. Thus, producing a composite index that is reflective of these multidimensional impacts captures the interests of policymakers. The problem lies in going through a mixture of theoretical, methodological and empirical decisions and complexities which, when done carelessly, can lead to inconsistent and unreliable results. This study looks into index computation from a different and less complex perspective. Borrowing the idea of archetypes or ‘pure types’, archetypal analysis looks for points in the convex hull of the multivariate data set that captures as much information in the data as possible. The archetypes or 'pure types' are estimated such that they are convex combinations of all the observations, which in turn are convex combinations of the archetypes. This ensures that the archetypes are realistically observable, therefore achievable. In the sense of composite indices, we look for the best among these archetypes and use this as a benchmark for index computation. Its straightforward and simplistic approach does away with aggregation and substitutability problems which are commonly encountered in index computation. As an example of the application of archetypal analysis in index construction, the country data for the Human Development Index (HDI 2017) of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is used. The goal of this exercise is not to replicate the result of the UNDP-computed HDI, but to illustrate the usability of archetypal analysis in index construction. Here best is defined in the context of life, education and gross national income sub-indices. Results show that the HDI from the archetypal analysis has a linear relationship with the UNDP-computed HDI.

Keywords: archetypes, composite index, convex combination, development

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Authors: Nicolaas Unland, John Webb

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The acidification and mobilisation of metals during the oxidation of acid sulfate soils exposed during lake bed drying is an increasingly common phenomenon under climate scenarios with reduced rainfall. In order to assess the risk of generating high concentrations of acidity and dissolved metals, chromium suite analysis are fundamental, but sometimes limited in characterising the potential risks they pose. This study combines such fundamental test work, along with incubation tests and 1D modelling to investigate the risks associated with the drying of Third Reedy Lake in South East Australia. Core samples were collected from a variable depth of 0.5 m below the lake bed, at 19 locations across the lake’s footprint, using a boat platform. Samples were subjected to a chromium suite of analysis, including titratable actual acidity, chromium reducible sulfur and acid neutralising capacity. Concentrations of reduced sulfur up to 0.08 %S and net acidities up to 0.15 %S indicate that acid sulfate soils have formed on the lake bed during permanent inundation over the last century. A further sub-set of samples were prepared in 7 columns and subject to accelerated heating, drying and wetting over a period of 64 days in laboratory. Results from the incubation trial indicate that while pyrite oxidation proceeded, minimal change to soil pH or the acidity of leachate occurred, suggesting that the internal buffering capacity of lake bed sediments was sufficient to neutralise a large proportion of the acidity produced. A 1D mass balance model was developed to assess potential changes in lake water quality during drying based on the results of chromium suite and incubation tests. Results from the above test work and modelling suggest that acid sulfate soils pose a moderate to low risk to the Third Reedy Lake system. Further, the risks can be effectively managed during the initial stages of lake drying via flushing with available mildly alkaline water. The study finds that while test work such as chromium suite analysis are fundamental in characterizing acid sulfate soil environments, they can the overestimate risks associated with the soils. Subsequent incubation test work may more accurately characterise such soils and lead to better-informed management strategies.

Keywords: acid sulfate soil, incubation, management, model, risk

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Authors: Nora Kuiper, Candace Rowell, Hugues Preud'Homme, Basem Shomar

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As the global dependence on seawater desalination as a primary drinking water resource increases, a unique class of secondary pollutants is emerging. The presence of bromide salts in seawater may result in increased levels of bromine and brominated byproducts in drinking water. The State of Qatar offers a unique setting to study these pollutants and their impacts on consumers as the country is 100% dependent on seawater desalination to supply municipal tap water and locally produced bottled water. Tap water (n=115) and bottled water (n=62) samples were collected throughout the State of Qatar and analyzed for a suite of inorganic and organic compounds, including 54 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), with an emphasis on brominated byproducts. All VOC identification and quantification was completed using a Bruker Scion GCMSMS with static headspace technologies. A risk survey tool was used to collect information regarding local consumption habits, health outcomes and perception of water sources for adults and children. This study is the first of its kind in the country. Dibromomethane, bromoform, and bromobenzene were detected in 61%, 88% and 2%, of the drinking water samples analyzed. The levels of dibromomethane ranged from approximately 100-500 ng/L and the concentrations of bromoform ranged from approximately 5-50 µg/L. Additionally, bromobenzene concentrations were 60 ng/L. The presence of brominated compounds in drinking water is a public health concern specific to populations using seawater as a feed water source and may pose unique risks that have not been previously studied. Risk assessments are ongoing to quantify the risks associated with prolonged consumption of disinfection byproducts; specifically the risks of brominated trihalomethanes as the levels of bromoform found in Qatar’s drinking water reach more than 60% of the US EPA’s Maximum Contaminant Level of all THMs.

Keywords: brominated byproducts, desalination, trihalomethanes, risk assessment

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Authors: Yousef S. Al-Othman

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The growth and expansion of the industrial facilities comes proportional to the market increasing demand of products and services. Furthermore, raw material producers such as oil companies usually undergo massive revamping projects to maintain a synchronized supply. These revamping projects are usually delivered through challenging construction projects held and associated with daily site risks related to the construction process. Henceforth, a case study related to these risks and corresponding on-spot corrective measurements has been made on a certain number of construction project contractors at Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) to derive the benefits and overall effectiveness of the on-spot corrective measurements during the construction phase of a project, and how would the same help in avoiding major incidents, ensuring a smooth, cost effective and on time delivery of the project. Findings of this case study shall have an added value to the overall risk management process by minimizing the daily site risks that may affect the project lead time, resulting in an undisturbed on-site construction process.

Keywords: oil and gas, risk management, construction projects, project lead time

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Authors: Joshua Abraham, Craig Wales

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Abstract—SIGN Guideline 122 recommends that all patients who are admitted to hospital are assessed for venous thromboembolism risk within 24 hours of admission. NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde provide guidance on this in the form of a proforma. Patients are then subsequently prescribed either thrombo-embolic-deterrent stockings (TEDS)/low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) for the prevention of VTE based on their score. A retrospective casenote audit of a random sample of fifty oncology and trauma inpatients at the QEUH in December 2019 was performed. 90% of patients had a risk assessment conducted as evidenced by a completed proforma. In 78% of these patients, the proforma fully completed. Overall 94% of patients had some for of thromboprophylaxis prescribed in the form of TEDS or LMWH. A lack of 100% compliance against the given standards highlighted potential implications for patient safety, but also medico-legal ramifications for staff. Clinical judgement can only be relied upon if there is written documentation as evidence. Further staff education and the suggestion of a written prompt to the clerk-in documentation will hopefully improve compliance, whilst a repeat audit should demonstrate any improvement.

Keywords: Maxillofacial , Thromboembolism, Thromboprophylaxis , Prescription

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Authors: Carlos M. Parra, Matthew Sutherland, Ranjita Poudel

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Reduced mental-bandwidth related to low socioeconomic status (low-SES) might lead to impulsivity and risk-taking behavior, which poses as a major hurdle towards asset building (savings) behavior. Understanding the relationship between risk-related personality metrics as well as laboratory risk behavior and real-life savings behavior can help facilitate the development of effective asset building programs, which are vital for mitigating financial vulnerability and income inequality. As such, this study explored the relationship between personality metrics, laboratory behavior in a risky decision-making task and real-life asset building (savings) behaviors among individuals with low-SES from Miami, Florida (FL). Study participants (12 male, 15 female) included racially and ethnically diverse adults (mean age 41.22 ± 12.65 years), with incomplete higher education (18% had High School Diploma, 30% Associates, and 52% Some College), and low annual income (mean $13,872 ± $8020.43). Participants completed eight self-report surveys and played a widely used risky decision-making paradigm called the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). Specifically, participants played three runs of BART (20 trials in each run; total 60 trials). In addition, asset building behavior data was collected for 24 participants who opened and used savings accounts and completed a 6-month savings program that involved monthly matches, and a final reward for completing the savings program without any interim withdrawals. Each participant’s total savings at the end of this program was the main asset building indicator considered. In addition, a new effective use of average pump bet (EUAPB) indicator was developed to characterize each participant’s ability to place winning bets. This indicator takes the ratio of each participant’s total BART earnings to average pump bet (APB) in all 60 trials. Our findings indicated that EUAPB explained more than a third of the variation in total savings among participants. Moreover, participants who managed to obtain BART earnings of at least 30 cents out of their APB, also tended to exhibit better asset building (savings) behavior. In particular, using this criterion to separate participants into high and low EUAPB groups, the nine participants with high EUAPB (mean BART earnings of 35.64 cents per APB) ended up with higher mean total savings ($255.11), while the 15 participants with low EUAPB (mean BART earnings of 22.50 cents per APB) obtained lower mean total savings ($40.01). All mean differences are statistically significant (2-tailed p  .0001) indicating that the relation between higher EUAPB and higher total savings is robust. Overall, these findings can help refine asset building interventions implemented by policy makers and practitioners interested in reducing financial vulnerability among low-SES population. Specifically, by helping identify individuals who are likely to readily take advantage of savings opportunities (such as matched savings programs) and avoiding the stipulation of unnecessary and expensive financial coaching programs to these individuals. This study was funded by J.P. Morgan Chase (JPMC) and carried out by scientists from Florida International University (FIU) in partnership with Catalyst Miami.

Keywords: balloon analogue risk task (BART), matched savings programs, asset building capability, low-SES participants

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Authors: Mauricio Quintero Angel, Alexander Pereira, Selene Alarcón

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One of the elements of greatest importance in agricultural production is the harvesting; an activity associated to different occupational health risks such as harvesting in high altitudes, the transport of heavy materials and the application of excessive muscle strain that leads to muscular-bone disorders. Therefore, there is an urgent necessity to improve and validate interventions to reduce exposition and risk to harvesters. This article has the objective of describing the co-development under the ergonomic analysis framework of an assisted manual harvesting tool for peach palm oriented to reduce the risk of death and accidents as it avoid the harvest in heights. The peach palm is a palm tree that is cultivated in Colombia, Perú, Brasil, Costa Rica, among others and that reaches heights of over 20 m, with stipes covered with spines. The fruits are drupes of variable size. For the harvesting of peach palm, in Colombia farmers use the “Marota” or “Climber”, a tool in a closed X shape built in wood, that has two supports adjusted at the stipe, that elevate alternately until reaching a point high enough to grab the bunch that is brought down using a rope. An activity of high risk since it is done at a high altitude without any type of protection and safety measures. The Marota is alternated with a rod, which as variable height between 5 and 12 Meters with a harness system at one end to hold the bunch that is lowered with the whole system (bamboo bunch). The rod is used from the ground or from the Marota in height. As an alternative to traditional tools, the Bajachonta was co-developed with farmers, a tool that employs a traditional bamboo hook system with modifications, to be able to hold it with a rope that passes through a pulley. Once the bunch is hitched, the hook system is detached and this stays attached to the peduncle of the palm tree, afterwards through a pulling force being exerted towards the ground by tensioning the rope, the bunch comes loose to be taken down using a rope and the pulley system to the ground, reducing the risk and efforts in the operation. The bajachonta was evaluated in tree productive zones of Colombia, with innovative farmers, were the adoption is highly probable, with some modifications to improve its efficiency and effectiveness, keeping in mind that the farmers perceive in it an advantage in the reduction of death and accidents by not having to harvest in heights.

Keywords: assisted harvesting, ergonomics, harvesting in high altitudes, participative design, peach palm

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Authors: T. Pradhan, P. Rijal, M. C. Regmi

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Background: Eclampsia is a multisystem disorder that involves vital organs and failure of these may lead to deterioration of maternal condition and hypoxia and acidosis of fetus resulting in high maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Thus, evaluation of the contributing factors for this condition and its complications leading to maternal deaths should be the priority. Formulating the plan and protocol to decrease these losses should be our goal. Aims and Objectives: To evaluate the risk factors associated with adverse maternal and fetal outcome in patients with eclampsia and to correlate the risk factors associated with maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Methods: All patients with eclampsia admitted in Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, B. P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences were enrolled after informed consent from February 2013 to February 2014. Questions as per per-forma were asked to patients, and attendants like Antenatal clinic visits, parity, number of episodes of seizures, duration from onset of seizure to magnesium sulfate and the patients were followed as per the hospital protocol, the mode of delivery, outcome of baby, post partum maternal condition like maternal Intensive Care Unit admission, neurological impairment and mortality were noted before discharge. Statistical analysis was done using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 11). Mean and percentage were calculated for demographic variables. Pearson’s correlation test and chi-square test were applied to find the relation between the risk factors and the outcomes. P value less than 0.05 was considered significant. Results: There were 10,000 antenatal deliveries during the study period. Fifty-two patients with eclampsia were admitted. All of the patients were unbooked for our institute. Thirty-nine patients were antepartum eclampsia. Thirty-one patients required mechanical ventilator support. Twenty-four patients were delivered by emergency c-section and 21 babies were Low Birth Weight and there were 9 stillbirths. There was one maternal mortality and 45 patients were discharged with improvement but 3 patients had neurological impairment. Mortality was significantly related with number of seizure episodes and time interval between seizure onset and administration of magnesium sulphate. Conclusion: Early detection and management of hypertensive complicating pregnancy during antenatal clinic check up. Early hospitalization and management with magnesium sulphate for eclampsia can help to minimize the maternal and fetal adverse outcomes.

Keywords: eclampsia, maternal mortality, perinatal mortality, risk factors

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Authors: Jonathan J. Burson

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With the rise of virtually costless, mobile-based trading platforms, stock market trading activity has increased significantly over the past decade, particularly for the millennial generation. This increased stock market attention, combined with the recent market turmoil due to the economic upset caused by COVID-19, make the topics of market-timing and forecasting particularly relevant. While the overall stock market saw an unprecedented, historically-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, the end of that bull market reignited a search by investors for a way to reduce risk and increase return. Similar searches for outperformance occurred in the early, and late 2000’s as the Dotcom bubble burst and the Great Recession led to years of negative returns for mean-variance, index investors. Extensive research has been conducted on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, and other techniques—all using different methodologies and investment periods—in pursuit of higher returns with lower risk. The enormous variety of timeframes, data, and methodologies used by the diverse forecasting methods makes it difficult to compare the outcome of each method directly to other methods. This paper establishes a process to evaluate the market-timing methods in an apples-to-apples manner based on simplicity, performance, and feasibility. Preliminary findings show that certain technical analysis models provide a higher return with lower risk when compared to the buy-and-hold method and to other market-timing strategies. Furthermore, technical analysis models tend to be easier for individual investors both in terms of acquiring the data and in analyzing it, making technical analysis-based market-timing methods the preferred choice for retail investors.

Keywords: buy-and-hold, forecast, market-timing, probit, technical analysis

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Authors: Abimbola Motunrayo Enitan, Ibironke Titilayo Enitan, John Odiyo

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The study assessed quality of surface water across Ndawuse River Phase 1, District of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria based on physico-chemical variables that are linked to agrochemical and eutrophication, as well as heavy metals concentrations. In total, sixteen surface water samples were obtained from five locations along the river. The results were compared with the standard limits set by both World Health Organization and Federal Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water. The results obtained indicated that BOD5, turbidity, 0.014-3.511 mg Fe/L and 0.078-0.14 mg Cr/L were all above the standard limits. The results further showed that the quality of surface water is being significantly affected by human activities around the Ndawuse River which could pose an adverse health risk to several communities that rely on these receiving water bodies primarily as their source of water. Therefore, there is a need for strict enforcement of environmental laws considering the physico-chemical analysis.

Keywords: Abuja, heavy metals, human exposure risk, Ndawuse River, Nigeria, surface water

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Authors: A. Buruzs, M. F. Hatwágner, A. Torma, L. T. Kóczy

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The development, operation and maintenance of Integrated Waste Management Systems (IWMS) affects essentially the sustainable concern of every region. The features of such systems have great influence on all of the components of sustainability. In order to reach the optimal way of processes, a comprehensive mapping of the variables affecting the future efficiency of the system is needed such as analysis of the interconnections among the components and modelling of their interactions. The planning of a IWMS is based fundamentally on technical and economical opportunities and the legal framework. Modelling the sustainability and operation effectiveness of a certain IWMS is not in the scope of the present research. The complexity of the systems and the large number of the variables require the utilization of a complex approach to model the outcomes and future risks. This complex method should be able to evaluate the logical framework of the factors composing the system and the interconnections between them. The authors of this paper studied the usability of the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) approach modelling the future operation of IWMS’s. The approach requires two input data set. One is the connection matrix containing all the factors affecting the system in focus with all the interconnections. The other input data set is the time series, a retrospective reconstruction of the weights and roles of the factors. This paper introduces a novel method to develop time series by content analysis.

Keywords: content analysis, factors, integrated waste management system, time series

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Authors: Jean-michel Sahut, Lubica Hikkerova, Wissal Ben Arfi

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The Internet of Things (IoT) emerged over the last few decades in many fields. Healthcare can significantly benefit from IoT. This study aims to examine factors influencing the adoption of IoT in eHealth. To do so, an innovative framework has been developed which applies both the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the United Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model and builds on them by analyzing trust and perceived-risk dimensions to predict intention to use IoT in eHealth. In terms of methodology, a Partial Least Approach Structural Equation Modelling was carried out on a sample of 267 French users. The findings of this research support the significant positive effect of constructs set out in the TAM (perceived ease of use) on predicting behavioral intention by adding the effects identified for UTAUT variables. This research also demonstrates how perceived risk and trust are significant factors for models examining behavioral intentions to use IoT. Perceived risk enhanced by the trust has a significant effect on patients’ behavioral intentions. Moreover, the results highlight the key role of prescription as a moderator of IoT adoption in eHealth. Depending on whether an individual has a prescription to use connected devices or not, ease of use has a stronger impact on adoption, while trust has a negative impact on adoption for users without a prescription. In accordance with the empirical results, several practical implications can be proposed. All connected devices applied in a medical context should be divided into groups according to their functionality: whether they are essential for the patient’s health and whether they require a prescription or not. Devices used with a prescription are easily accepted because the intention to use them is moderated by the medical trust (discussed above). For users without a prescription, ease of use is a more significant factor than for users who have a prescription. This suggests that currently, connected e-Health devices and online healthcare systems have to take this factor into account to better meet the needs and expectations of end-users.

Keywords: internet of things, Healthcare, trust, consumer acceptance

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Authors: Fatou Cisse

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Depression is one of the most serious health problems experienced by immigrants and refugees, who are likely to undergo heightened political, economic, social, and environmental stressors as they transition to a new culture. The purpose of this literature review is to identify and compare risks associated with depression among young adult immigrants and refugees aged 18 to 25. Ten articles focused on risks associated with depression symptoms among this population were reviewed, revealing several common themes: Stress, identity, culture, language barriers, discrimination, social support, self-esteem, length of time in the receiving country, origins, or background. Existing research has failed to account adequately for sample size, language barriers, how the concept of "depression" differs across cultures, and stressors immigrants and refugees experience prior to the transition to the new culture. The study revealed that immigrants and refugees are at risk for depression and that the risk is greater in the refugee population due to their history of trauma. The Roy Adaptation Model was employed to understand the coping mechanisms that refugees and immigrants could use to reduce rates of depression. The psychiatric nurse practitioner must be prepared to intervene and educate this population on these coping mechanisms to help them overcome the feelings that lead to depression and facilitate a smooth integration into the new culture.

Keywords: immigration, refugees, depression, young adults

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Authors: Kgantsi B. T., Ochwelwang A. R., Mathuthu M., Jegede O. A.

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Anthropogenic activities near water bodies contribute to poor water quality, which degrades the condition of the biota and elevates the risk to human health. The Vaal River is essential in supplying Gauteng and neighboring regions of South Africa with portable water for a variety of consumers and industries. Consequently, it is necessary to monitor and assess the radioactive risk in relation to the river's water quality. This study used an inductive coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICPMS) to analyze the radionuclide activity concentration in the Vaal River, South Africa. Along with thorium and potassium, the total uranium concentration was calculated using the isotopic content of uranium. The elemental concentration of ²³⁸U, ²³⁵U, ²³⁴U, ²³²Th, and 40K were translated into activity concentrations. To assess the water safety for all users and consumers, all values were compared to world average activity concentrations 35, 30, and 400 Bqkg⁻¹ for ²³⁸U, ²³⁴Th, and ⁴⁰K, respectively, according to the UNSCEAR report. The results will serve as a database for further monitoring and evaluation of the radionuclide from the river, taking cognisance of potential health hazards.

Keywords: Val Rivers, ICPMS, uranium, risks

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Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

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Authors: Duygu Dere, Mert Ergeneci, Kaan Gokcesu

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Google Trends data has gained increasing popularity in the applications of behavioral finance, decision science and risk management. Because of Google’s wide range of use, the Trends statistics provide significant information about the investor sentiment and intention, which can be used as decisive factors for corporate and risk management fields. However, an anomaly, a significant increase or decrease, in a certain query cannot be detected by the state of the art applications of computation due to the random baseline noise of the Trends data, which is modelled as an Additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN). Since through time, the baseline noise power shows a gradual change an adaptive thresholding method is required to track and learn the baseline noise for a correct classification. To this end, we introduce an online method to classify meaningful deviations in Google Trends data. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method can successfully classify various anomalies for plenty of different data.

Keywords: adaptive data processing, behavioral finance , convex optimization, online learning, soft minimum thresholding

Procedia PDF Downloads 166