Search results for: dynamic uncertainty

Authors: Maria Ahmadnezhad, Mohammad Reza Soltanpour

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Electrohydraulic servo systems have been used in industry in a wide number of applications. Its dynamics ‎are highly nonlinear and also have large extent of model uncertainties and external disturbances. In this ‎thesis, a robust back-stepping control (RBSC) scheme is proposed to overcome the problem of ‎disturbances and system uncertainties effectively and to improve the tracking performance of EHS ‎systems. In order to implement the proposed control scheme, the system uncertainties in EHS systems ‎are considered as total leakage coefficient and effective oil volume. In addition, in order to obtain the ‎virtual controls for stabilizing system, the update rule for the system uncertainty term is induced by the ‎Lyapunov control function (LCF). To verify the performance and robustness of the proposed control ‎system, computer simulation of the proposed control system using Matlab/Simulink Software is ‎executed. From the computer simulation, it was found that the RBSC system produces the desired ‎tracking performance and has robustness to the disturbances and system uncertainties of EHS systems.‎

Keywords: electro hydraulic servo system, back-stepping control, robust back-stepping control, Lyapunov redesign

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Authors: Fernanda A. P. Peres, Thiago N. Peres, Flavio S. Fogliatto, Michel J. Anzanello

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Batch processes are widely used in food industry and have an important role in the production of high added value products, such as chocolate. Process performance is usually described by variables that are monitored as the batch progresses. Data arising from these processes are likely to display a strong correlation-autocorrelation structure, and are usually monitored using control charts based on multiway principal components analysis (MPCA). Process control of a new batch is carried out comparing the trajectories of its relevant process variables with those in a reference set of batches that yielded products within specifications; it is clear that proper determination of the reference set is key for the success of a correct signalization of non-conforming batches in such quality control schemes. In chocolate manufacturing, misclassifications of non-conforming batches in the conching phase may lead to significant financial losses. In such context, the accuracy of process control grows in relevance. In addition to that, the main assumption in MPCA-based monitoring strategies is that all batches are synchronized in duration, both the new batch being monitored and those in the reference set. Such assumption is often not satisfied in chocolate manufacturing process. As a consequence, traditional techniques as MPCA-based charts are not suitable for process control and monitoring. To address that issue, the objective of this work is to compare the performance of three dynamic time warping (DTW) methods in the alignment and synchronization of chocolate conching process variables’ trajectories, aimed at properly determining the reference distribution for multivariate statistical process control. The power of classification of batches in two categories (conforming and non-conforming) was evaluated using the k-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm. Real data from a milk chocolate conching process was collected and the following variables were monitored over time: frequency of soybean lecithin dosage, rotation speed of the shovels, current of the main motor of the conche, and chocolate temperature. A set of 62 batches with durations between 495 and 1,170 minutes was considered; 53% of the batches were known to be conforming based on lab test results and experts’ evaluations. Results showed that all three DTW methods tested were able to align and synchronize the conching dataset. However, synchronized datasets obtained from these methods performed differently when inputted in the KNN classification algorithm. Kassidas, MacGregor and Taylor’s (named KMT) method was deemed the best DTW method for aligning and synchronizing a milk chocolate conching dataset, presenting 93.7% accuracy, 97.2% sensitivity and 90.3% specificity in batch classification, being considered the best option to determine the reference set for the milk chocolate dataset. Such method was recommended due to the lowest number of iterations required to achieve convergence and highest average accuracy in the testing portion using the KNN classification technique.

Keywords: batch process monitoring, chocolate conching, dynamic time warping, reference set distribution, variable duration

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Authors: Waleed Ahmed, Huang Xiaohua, Wilayat Ali

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The wheelchair users are generally exposed to physical and psychological health problems, e.g., pressure sores and pain in the hip joint, associated with seating posture or being inactive in a wheelchair for a long time. Reclining Wheelchair with back, thigh, and leg adjustment helps in daily life activities and health preservation. The seat elevating function of an electric wheelchair allows the user (lower limb amputation) to reach different heights. An electric wheelchair is expected to ease the lives of the elderly and disable people by giving them mobility support and decreasing the percentage of accidents caused by users’ narrow sight or joystick operation errors. Thus, this paper proposed the design, analysis and obstacle avoidance control of an electric wheelchair with sit-sleep-seat elevation functions. A 3D model of a wheelchair is designed in SolidWorks that was later used for multi-body dynamic (MBD) analysis and to verify driving control system. The control system uses the fuzzy algorithm to avoid the obstacle by getting information in the form of distance from the ultrasonic sensor and user-specified direction from the joystick’s operation. The proposed fuzzy driving control system focuses on the direction and velocity of the wheelchair. The wheelchair model has been examined and proven in MSC Adams (Automated Dynamic Analysis of Mechanical Systems). The designed fuzzy control algorithm is implemented on Gazebo robotic 3D simulator using Robotic Operating System (ROS) middleware. The proposed wheelchair design enhanced mobility and quality of life by improving the user’s functional capabilities. Simulation results verify the non-accidental behavior of the electric wheelchair.

Keywords: fuzzy logic control, joystick, multi body dynamics, obstacle avoidance, scissor mechanism, sensor

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Authors: Ganesh Prasad Mishra, Kusum Lata Mishra

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Structural, organizational ambidexterity influences along with transformational leadership (TL) in the firms to endure viability in conditions of environmental volatility, high level of uncertainty, and possible turbulence. Combining shreds of evidence from the study of N=693 employees of a large private multi-conglomerate organization in the Middle East, we tested whether social astuteness interceded the effects of (TL) on structural, organizational ambidexterity (SOA). Other tested areas were whether status incongruence moderated transformational leadership and structural, organizational ambidexterity relationships. After analyzing through Hierarchically Linear Modelling, we found that social astuteness interceded the effects of TL on SOA, and similarly, status incongruence moderated relationships between TL and SOA. The association between TL and SOA was found to be less encouraging with a high level of status incongruence, and their relationship was strengthened by a lower level of status incongruence. We tested the hypothesized theoretical framework that articulates the conditions under which the social astuteness ideology infused in transformational leadership for achieving higher structural and organizational ambidexterity will likely occur. Findings, suggestions, and future directions for research have been deliberated in detail.

Keywords: transformational leadership, social astuteness, status incongruence, relationship, structural organizational ambidexterity.

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Authors: Al. I. Diwedar, Moheb Iskander, Mohamed Yossef, Ahmed ElKut, Noha Fouad, Radwa Fathy, Mustafa M. Almaghraby, Amira Samir, Ahmed Romya, Nourhan Hassan, Asmaa Abo Zed, Bas Reijmerink, Julien Groenenboom

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Coastal problems are stressing the coastal environment due to its complexity. The dynamic interaction between the sea and the land results in serious problems that threaten coastal areas worldwide, in addition to human interventions and activities. This makes the coastal environment highly vulnerable to natural processes like flooding, erosion, and the impact of human activities as pollution. Protecting and preserving this vulnerable coastal zone with its valuable ecosystems calls for addressing the coastal problems. This, in the end, will support the sustainability of the coastal communities and maintain the current and future generations. Consequently applying suitable management strategies and sustainable development that consider the unique characteristics of the coastal system is a must. The coastal management philosophy aims to solve the conflicts of interest between human development activities and this dynamic nature. Modeling emerges as a successful tool that provides support to decision-makers, engineers, and researchers for better management practices. Modeling tools proved that it is accurate and reliable in prediction. With its capability to integrate data from various sources such as bathymetric surveys, satellite images, and meteorological data, it offers the possibility for engineers and scientists to understand this complex dynamic system and get in-depth into the interaction between both the natural and human-induced factors. This enables decision-makers to make informed choices and develop effective strategies for sustainable development and risk mitigation of the coastal zone. The application of modeling tools supports the evaluation of various scenarios by affording the possibility to simulate and forecast different coastal processes from the hydrodynamic and wave actions and the resulting flooding and erosion. The state-of-the-art application of modeling tools in coastal management allows for better understanding and predicting coastal processes, optimizing infrastructure planning and design, supporting ecosystem-based approaches, assessing climate change impacts, managing hazards, and finally facilitating stakeholder engagement. This paper emphasizes the role of hydraulic models in enhancing the management of coastal problems by discussing the diverse applications of modeling in coastal management. It highlights the modelling role in understanding complex coastal processes, and predicting outcomes. The importance of informing decision-makers with modeling results which gives technical and scientific support to achieve sustainable coastal development and protection.

Keywords: coastal problems, coastal management, hydraulic model, numerical model, physical model

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Authors: Richard Nelson

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The knowledge, skills, and identity of the Higher Education professional are constantly challenged with a demanding environment of teaching, research, administration, and pastoral care. It is more important than ever for professors and lecturers to maintain their professional development in a constantly changing environment. The importance of professional development has become more focused as new skills are needed to meet the demands of remote teaching and learning during a pandemic. Uncertainty and performance pressures influence teachers to try to return to physical spaces or recreate lecture and seminar rooms despite more effective online spaces being available. This case study uses the Boys’ spatial triad as a framework for qualitative interviews to capture the Lecturers’ experiences in Universities in the UK and the USA of moving to online learning spaces. The study finds that without effective professional development and time to reflect critically on remote learning innovation in their teaching practices, lecturers attempt to defer to lecture theatres and seminar rooms, or similes of, as their preferred space for teaching and learning. Professional Development is needed to encourage teachers to reflect on their professional identity and relationship to the teaching space.

Keywords: professional identity, learning, online, remote

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Authors: Katarzyna Kamińska

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The main purpose of the work is to present the results of the studies regarding joint physical custody in the Polish legal system. The issues addressed fit into the ongoing process of modernising family law regulations and their adaptation to changing social reality in Poland. The Polish legislator now faces a dilemma: whether to introduce into Polish law a developed substantive or procedural regulation of joint physical custody and then whether it should be considered a legal presumption. Joint physical custody after divorce or separation is theoretically possible in Poland. It can either follow from the court’s independent proposal based on the assessment of the circumstances or from the parenting plan submitted by parents wishing to jointly retain full parental authority. However, joint physical custody does not result directly from the Polish Family and Guardianship Code. Therefore, there is real legal uncertainty in this matter, which leads to different treatment of citizens by the public authorities and courts. Another problem is that joint physical custody is misunderstood by the Polish courts. The main thesis of the work is that joint physical custody does not only mean the system of symmetrical child care (50/50), and the possibility to award joint physical custody will require the courts to carefully weigh the pros and cons of such an arrangement in each individual case.

Keywords: joint physical custody, shared parenting, divorce, separation, parental authority

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Authors: Stehr Melanie

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The availability of apposite information is essential for the decision-making process of organizational buyers. Due to the constraints of the Covid-19 crisis, information channels that emphasize face-to-face contact (e.g. sales visits, trade shows) have been unavailable, and usage of digitally-driven information channels (e.g. videoconferencing, platforms) has skyrocketed. This paper explores the question in which areas the pandemic induced shift in the use of information channels could be sustainable and in which areas it is a temporary phenomenon. While information and buying behavior in B2C purchases has been regularly studied in the last decade, the last fundamental model of organizational buying behavior in B2B was introduced by Johnston and Lewin (1996) in times before the advent of the internet. Subsequently, research efforts in B2B marketing shifted from organizational buyers and their decision and information behavior to the business relationships between sellers and buyers. This study builds on the extensive literature on situational factors influencing organizational buying and information behavior and uses the economics of information theory as a theoretical framework. The research focuses on the German woodworking industry, which before the Covid-19 crisis was characterized by a rather low level of digitization of information channels. By focusing on an industry with traditional communication structures, a shift in information behavior induced by an exogenous shock is considered a ripe research setting. The study is exploratory in nature. The primary data source is 40 in-depth interviews based on the repertory-grid method. Thus, 120 typical buying situations in the woodworking industry and the information and channels relevant to them are identified. The results are combined into clusters, each of which shows similar information behavior in the procurement process. In the next step, the clusters are analyzed in terms of the post and pre-Covid-19 crisis’ behavior identifying stable and dynamic information behavior aspects. Initial results show that, for example, clusters representing search goods with low risk and complexity suggest a sustainable rise in the use of digitally-driven information channels. However, in clusters containing trust goods with high significance and novelty, an increased return to face-to-face information channels can be expected after the Covid-19 crisis. The results are interesting from both a scientific and a practical point of view. This study is one of the first to apply the economics of information theory to organizational buyers and their decision and information behavior in the digital information age. Especially the focus on the dynamic aspects of information behavior after an exogenous shock might contribute new impulses to theoretical debates related to the economics of information theory. For practitioners - especially suppliers’ marketing managers and intermediaries such as publishers or trade show organizers from the woodworking industry - the study shows wide-ranging starting points for a future-oriented segmentation of their marketing program by highlighting the dynamic and stable preferences of elaborated clusters in the choice of their information channels.

Keywords: B2B buying process, crisis, economics of information theory, information channel

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Authors: Anuraj Singh

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The complex dynamics is explored in a prey predator system with multiple delays. The predator dynamics is governed by Leslie-Gower scheme. The existence of periodic solutions via Hopf bifurcation with respect to delay parameters is established. To substantiate analytical findings, numerical simulations are performed. The system shows rich dynamic behavior including chaos and limit cycles.

Keywords: chaos, Hopf bifurcation, stability, time delay

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Dineshsingh Thakur, S. Nagesh, J. Basha

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A lightweight High Speed Flexible Coupling (HSFC) is used to connect the Engine Gear Box (EGB) with an Accessory Gear Box (AGB) of the combat aircraft. The HSFC transmits the power at high speeds ranging from 10000 to 18000 rpm from the EGB to AGB. The HSFC is also accommodates larger misalignments resulting from thermal expansion of the aircraft engine and mounting arrangement. The HSFC has the series of metallic contoured annular thin cross-sectioned flexible plates to accommodate the misalignments. The flexible plates are accommodating the misalignment by the elastic material flexure. As the HSFC operates at higher speed, the flexural and axial resonance frequencies are to be kept away from the operating speed and proper prediction is required to prevent failure in the transmission line of a single engine fighter aircraft. To study the influence of flexible plate’s contour on the lateral critical speed (LCS) of HSFC, a mathematical model of HSFC as a elven rotor system is developed. The flexible plate being the bending member of the system, its bending stiffness which results from the contoured governs the LCS. Using transfer matrix method, Influence of various flexible plate contours on critical speed is analyzed. In the above analysis, the support bearing flexibility on critical speed prediction is also considered. Based on the study, a model is built with the optimum contour of flexible plate, for validation by experimental modal analysis. A good correlation between the theoretical prediction and model behavior is observed. From the study, it is found that the flexible plate’s contour is playing vital role in modification of system’s dynamic behavior and the present model can be extended for the development of similar type of flexible couplings for its computational simplicity and reliability.

Keywords: flexible rotor, critical speed, experimental modal analysis, high speed flexible coupling (HSFC), misalignment

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Authors: Tomohiko Utsuki, Kyoka Sato

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In emergency medicine, it is recognized that brain resuscitation is very important for the reduction of mortality rate and neurological sequelae. Especially, the control of brain temperature (BT), intracranial pressure (ICP), and cerebral blood flow (CBF) are most required for stabilizing brain’s physiological state in the treatment for such as brain injury, stroke, and encephalopathy. However, the manual control of BT, ICP, and CBF frequently requires the decision and operation of medical staff, relevant to medication and the setting of therapeutic apparatus. Thus, the integration and the automation of the control of those is very effective for not only improving therapeutic effect but also reducing staff burden and medical cost. For realizing such integration and automation, a mathematical model of brain physiological state is necessary as the controlled object in simulations, because the performance test of a prototype of the control system using patients is not ethically allowed. A model of cerebral blood circulation has already been constructed, which is the most basic part of brain physiological state. Also, a migration model of extracellular fluid in brain has been constructed, however the condition that the total volume of intracranial cavity is almost changeless due to the hardness of cranial bone has not been considered in that model. Therefore, in this research, the dynamic migration model of extracellular fluid in brain was constructed on the consideration of the changelessness of intracranial cavity’s total volume. This model is connectable to the cerebral blood circulation model. The constructed model consists of fourteen compartments, twelve of which corresponds to perfused area of bilateral anterior, middle and posterior cerebral arteries, the others corresponds to cerebral ventricles and subarachnoid space. This model enable to calculate the migration of tissue fluid from capillaries to gray matter and white matter, the flow of tissue fluid between compartments, the production and absorption of cerebrospinal fluid at choroid plexus and arachnoid granulation, and the production of metabolic water. Further, the volume, the colloid concentration, and the tissue pressure of/in each compartment are also calculable by solving 40-dimensional non-linear simultaneous differential equations. In this research, the obtained model was analyzed for its validation under the four condition of a normal adult, an adult with higher cerebral capillary pressure, an adult with lower cerebral capillary pressure, and an adult with lower colloid concentration in cerebral capillary. In the result, calculated fluid flow, tissue volume, colloid concentration, and tissue pressure were all converged to suitable value for the set condition within 60 minutes at a maximum. Also, because these results were not conflict with prior knowledge, it is certain that the model can enough represent physiological state of brain under such limited conditions at least. One of next challenges is to integrate this model and the already constructed cerebral blood circulation model. This modification enable to simulate CBF and ICP more precisely due to calculating the effect of blood pressure change to extracellular fluid migration and that of ICP change to CBF.

Keywords: dynamic model, cerebral extracellular migration, brain resuscitation, automatic control

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Authors: F. Pottmeyer, M. Weispfenning, K. A. Weidenmann

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Continuous carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP) exhibit a high application potential for lightweight structures due to their outstanding specific mechanical properties. Embedded metal elements, so-called inserts, can be used to join structural CFRP parts. Drilling of the components to be joined can be avoided using inserts. In consequence, no bearing stress is anticipated. This is a distinctive benefit of embedded inserts, since continuous CFRP have low shear and bearing strength. This paper aims at the investigation of the load bearing capacity after preinduced damages from impact tests and thermal-cycling. In addition, characterization of mechanical properties during dynamic high speed pull-out testing under different loading velocities was conducted. It has been shown that the load bearing capacity increases up to 100% for very high velocities (15 m/s) in comparison with quasi-static loading conditions (1.5 mm/min). Residual strength measurements identified the influence of thermal loading and preinduced mechanical damage. For both, the residual strength was evaluated afterwards by quasi-static pull-out tests. Taking into account the DIN EN 6038 a high decrease of force occurs at impact energy of 16 J with significant damage of the laminate. Lower impact energies of 6 J, 9 J, and 12 J do not decrease the measured residual strength, although the laminate is visibly damaged - distinguished by cracks on the rear side. To evaluate the influence of thermal loading, the specimens were placed in a climate chamber and were exposed to various numbers of temperature cycles. One cycle took 1.5 hours from -40 °C to +80 °C. It could be shown that already 10 temperature cycles decrease the load bearing capacity up to 20%. Further reduction of the residual strength with increasing number of thermal cycles was not observed. Thus, it implies that the maximum damage of the composite is already induced after 10 temperature cycles.

Keywords: composite, joining, inserts, dynamic loading, thermal loading, residual strength, impact

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Authors: Asmita A. Vaidya, Shahista S. Inamdar

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Society is dynamic, in this changing and development processes, Indian Muslim women where no exception to this social change. Islam has elevated her status from being chattels/commodity to individual human being having separate legal personality and equal to that of men but in India, even two women are not equal in availing their matrimonial rights and remedies, separate personal laws are applicable to them and thus gender justice is a fragile myth.

Keywords: Muslim women, gender justice, polygamy, Islamic jurisprudence, equality

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Authors: Ezgi Nevruz, Kasirga Yildirak, Ashis SenGupta

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Comparing or ranking risks is the main motivating factor behind the human trait of making choices. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a preference theory approach that evaluates perception and bias in decision making under risk and uncertainty. We aim to investigate the aggregate claims of different risk classes in terms of their comparability and amenability to ordering when the impact of risk perception is considered. For this aim, we prioritize the aggregate claims taken as actuarial risks by using various stochastic ordering relations. In order to prioritize actuarial risks, we use stochastic relations such as stochastic dominance and stop-loss dominance that are proposed in the frame of partial order theory. We take into account the dependency of the individual claims exposed to similar environmental risks. At first, we modify the zero-utility premium principle in order to obtain a solution for the stop-loss premium under CPT. Then, we propose a stochastic stop-loss dominance of the aggregate claims and find a relation between the stop-loss dominance and the first-order stochastic dominance under the dependence assumption by using properties of the familiar as well as some emerging multivariate claim distributions.

Keywords: cumulative prospect theory, partial order theory, risk perception, stochastic dominance, stop-loss dominance

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Authors: N. Harun, E. E. Masiren, W. H. W. Ibrahim, F. Adam

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Amine absorption process is an approach for mitigation of CO2 from flue gas that produces from power plant. This process is the most common system used in chemical and oil industries for gas purification to remove acid gases. On the challenges of this process is high energy requirement for solvent regeneration to release CO2. In the past few years, mixed alkanolamines have received increasing attention. In most cases, the mixtures contain N-methyldiethanolamine (MDEA) as the base amine with the addition of one or two more reactive amines such as PZ. The reason for the application of such blend amine is to take advantage of high reaction rate of CO2 with the activator combined with the advantages of the low heat of regeneration of MDEA. Several experimental and simulation studies have been undertaken to understand this process using blend MDEA/PZ solvent. Despite those studies, the mechanism of CO2 absorption into the aqueous MDEA is not well understood and available knowledge within the open literature is limited. The aim of this study is to investigate the intermolecular interaction of the blend MDEA/PZ using Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation. MD simulation was run under condition 313K and 1 atm using NVE ensemble at 200ps and NVT ensemble at 1ns. The results were interpreted in term of Radial Distribution Function (RDF) analysis through two system of interest i.e binary and tertiary. The binary system will explain the interaction between amine and water molecule while tertiary system used to determine the interaction between the amine and CO2 molecule. For the binary system, it was observed that the –OH group of MDEA is more attracted to water molecule compared to –NH group of MDEA. The –OH group of MDEA can form the hydrogen bond with water that will assist the solubility of MDEA in water. The intermolecular interaction probability of –OH and –NH group of MDEA with CO2 in blended MDEA/PZ is higher than using single MDEA. This findings show that PZ molecule act as an activator to promote the intermolecular interaction between MDEA and CO2.Thus, blend of MDEA with PZ is expecting to increase the absorption rate of CO2 and reduce the heat regeneration requirement.

Keywords: amine absorption process, blend MDEA/PZ, CO2 capture, molecular dynamic simulation, radial distribution function

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Authors: Sherif Sabri, Suzy Fawzi, Sanaa Abdelshafy, Ayman Nagah

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Introduction: Static derangements in lactate homeostasis during ICU stay have become established as a clinically useful marker of increased risk of hospital and ICU mortality. Lactate indices or kinetic alteration of the anaerobic metabolism make it a potential parameter to evaluate disease severity and intervention adequacy. This is an inexpensive and simple clinical parameter that can be obtained by a minimally invasive means. Aim of work: Comparing the predictive value of dynamic indices of hyperlactatemia in the first twenty four hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission with other static values are more commonly used. Patients and Methods: This study included 40 critically ill patients above 18 years old of both sexes with Hyperlactamia (≥ 2 m mol/L). Patients were divided into septic group (n=20) and low oxygen transport group (n=20), which include all causes of low-O2. Six lactate indices specifically relating to the first 24 hours of ICU admission were considered, three static indices and three dynamic indices. Results: There were no statistically significant differences among the two groups regarding age, most of the laboratory results including ABG and the need for mechanical ventilation. Admission lactate was significantly higher in low-oxygen transport group than the septic group [37.5±11.4 versus 30.6±7.8 P-value 0.034]. Maximum lactate was significantly higher in low-oxygen transport group than the septic group P-value (0.044). On the other hand absolute lactate (mg) was higher in septic group P-value (< 0.001). Percentage change of lactate was higher in the septic group (47.8±11.3) than the low-oxygen transport group (26.1±12.6) with highly significant P-value (< 0.001). Lastly, time weighted lactate was higher in the low-oxygen transport group (1.72±0.81) than the septic group (1.05±0.8) with significant P-value (0.012). There were statistically significant differences regarding lactate indices in survivors and non survivors, whether in septic or low-oxygen transport group. Conclusion: In critically ill patients, time weighted lactate and percent in lactate change in the first 24 hours can be an independent predictive factor in ICU mortality. Also, a rising compared to a falling blood lactate concentration over the first 24 hours can be associated with significant increase in the risk of mortality.

Keywords: critically ill patients, lactate indices, mortality in intensive care, anaerobic metabolism

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Authors: Stefanie M. Vanneste, Stijn Goeminne

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This paper studies the effect of political characteristics of 308 Flemish municipalities on their budget balance in the period 1995-2011. All local governments experience the same economic and financial setting, however some governments have high budget balances, while others have low budget balances. The aim of this paper is to explain the differences in municipal budget balances by a number of economic, socio-demographic and political variables. The economic and socio-demographic variables will be used as control variables, while the focus of this paper will be on the political variables. We test four hypotheses resulting from the literature, namely (i) the partisan hypothesis tests if left wing governments have lower budget balances, (ii) the fragmentation hypothesis stating that more fragmented governments have lower budget balances, (iii) the hypothesis regarding the power of the government, higher powered governments would resolve in higher budget balances, and (iv) the opportunistic budget cycle to test whether politicians manipulate the economic situation before elections in order to maximize their reelection possibilities and therefore have lower budget balances before elections. The contributions of our paper to the existing literature are multiple. First, we use the whole array of political variables and not just a selection of them. Second, we are dealing with a homogeneous database with the same budget and election rules, making it easier to focus on the political factors without having to control for the impact of differences in the political systems. Third, our research extends the existing literature on Flemish municipalities as this is the first dynamic research on local budget balances. We use a dynamic panel data model. Because of the two lagged dependent variables as explanatory variables, we employ the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator. This is the best possible estimator as we are dealing with political panel data that is rather persistent. Our empirical results show that the effect of the ideological position and the power of the coalition are of less importance to explain the budget balance. The political fragmentation of the government on the other hand has a negative and significant effect on the budget balance. The more parties in a coalition the worse the budget balance is ceteris paribus. Our results also provide evidence of an opportunistic budget cycle, the budget balances are lower in pre-election years relative to the other years to try and increase the incumbents reelection possibilities. An additional finding is that the incremental effect of the budget balance is very important and should not be ignored like is being done in a lot of empirical research. The coefficients of the lagged dependent variables are always positive and very significant. This proves that the budget balance is subject to incrementalism. It is not possible to change the entire policy from one year to another so the actions taken in recent past years still have an impact on the current budget balance. Only a relatively small amount of research concerning the budget balance takes this considerable incremental effect into account. Our findings survive several robustness checks.

Keywords: budget balance, fragmentation, ideology, incrementalism, municipalities, opportunistic budget cycle, panel data, political characteristics, power, system GMM

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Authors: Soheil Heydari, Ailar Hajimohammadi, Nasser Khalili

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The application of plastic waste for asphalt modification is a sustainable strategy to deal with the enormous plastic waste generated each year and enhance the properties of asphalt. The modification is either practiced by the dry process or the wet process. In the dry process, plastics are added straight into the asphalt mixture, and in the wet process, they are mixed and digested into bitumen. In this article, the effects of plastic inclusion in asphalt mixture, through the dry process, on the permanent deformation of the asphalt are investigated. The main waste plastics that are usually used in asphalt modification are taken into account, which is linear, low-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene, and polypropylene. Also, to simulate a plastic waste stream, different grades of each virgin plastic are mixed and used. For instance, four different grades of polypropylene are mixed and used as representative of polypropylene. A precisely designed mixing condition is considered to dry-mix the plastics into the mixture such that the polymer was melted and modified by the later introduced binder. In this mixing process, plastics are first added to the hot aggregates and mixed three times in different time intervals, then bitumen is introduced, and the whole mixture is mixed three times in fifteen minutes intervals. Marshall specimens were manufactured, and dynamic creep tests were conducted to evaluate the effects of modification on the permanent deformation of the asphalt mixture. Dynamic creep is a common repeated loading test conducted at different stress levels and temperatures. Loading cycles are applied to the AC specimen until failure occurs; with the amount of deformation constantly recorded, the cumulative, permanent strain is determined and reported as a function of the number of cycles. The results of this study showed that the dry inclusion of the waste plastics is very effective in enhancing the resistance against permanent deformation of the mixture. However, the mixing process must be precisely engineered to melt the plastics, and a homogenous mixture is achieved.

Keywords: permanent deformation, waste plastics, low-density polyethene, high-density polyethene, polypropylene, linear low-density polyethene, dry process

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Authors: Liu Jia’nan

Abstract:

The default accounts hold the view that there exists a kind of scalar implicature which can be processed without context and own a psychological privilege over other scalar implicatures which depend on context. In contrast, the Relevance Theorist regards context as a must because all the scalar implicatures have to meet the need of relevance in discourse. However, in Katsos, the experimental results showed: Although quantitatively the adults rejected under-informative utterance with lexical scales (context-independent) and the ad hoc scales (context-dependent) at almost the same rate, adults still regarded the violation of utterance with lexical scales much more severe than with ad hoc scales. Neither default account nor Relevance Theory can fully explain this result. Thus, there are two questionable points to this result: (1) Is it possible that the strange discrepancy is due to other factors instead of the generation of scalar implicature? (2) Are the ad hoc scales truly formed under the possible influence from mental context? Do the participants generate scalar implicatures with ad hoc scales instead of just comparing semantic difference among target objects in the under- informative utterance? In my Experiment 1, the question (1) will be answered by repetition of Experiment 1 by Katsos. Test materials will be showed by PowerPoint in the form of pictures, and each procedure will be done under the guidance of a tester in a quiet room. Our Experiment 2 is intended to answer question (2). The test material of picture will be transformed into the literal words in DMDX and the target sentence will be showed word-by-word to participants in the soundproof room in our lab. Reading time of target parts, i.e. words containing scalar implicatures, will be recorded. We presume that in the group with lexical scale, standardized pragmatically mental context would help generate scalar implicature once the scalar word occurs, which will make the participants hope the upcoming words to be informative. Thus if the new input after scalar word is under-informative, more time will be cost for the extra semantic processing. However, in the group with ad hoc scale, scalar implicature may hardly be generated without the support from fixed mental context of scale. Thus, whether the new input is informative or not does not matter at all, and the reading time of target parts will be the same in informative and under-informative utterances. People’s mind may be a dynamic system, in which lots of factors would co-occur. If Katsos’ experimental result is reliable, will it shed light on the interplay of default accounts and context factors in scalar implicature processing? We might be able to assume, based on our experiments, that one single dominant processing paradigm may not be plausible. Furthermore, in the processing of scalar implicature, the semantic interpretation and the pragmatic interpretation may be made in a dynamic interplay in the mind. As to the lexical scale, the pragmatic reading may prevail over the semantic reading because of its greater exposure in daily language use, which may also lead the possible default or standardized paradigm override the role of context. However, those objects in ad hoc scale are not usually treated as scalar membership in mental context, and thus lexical-semantic association of the objects may prevent their pragmatic reading from generating scalar implicature. Only when the sufficient contextual factors are highlighted, can the pragmatic reading get privilege and generate scalar implicature.

Keywords: scalar implicature, ad hoc scale, dynamic interplay, default account, Mandarin Chinese processing

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Authors: Jhonnatan Eduardo Zamudio Palacios, Oscar Leonardo Mosquera Dussan, Daniel Guzman Perez, Daniel Alfonso Botero Rosas, Oscar Fabian Rubiano Espinosa, Jose Antonio Garcia Torres, Ivan Dario Chavarro, Ivan Ramiro Rodriguez Camacho, Jaime Orlando Rodriguez

Abstract:

The training of cilsitas with some type of disability finds in the technological development an indispensable ally, generating every day advances to contribute to the quality of life allowing to maximize the capacities of the athletes. The performance of a cyclist depends on physiological and biomechanical factors, such as aerodynamic profile, bicycle measurements, connecting rod length, pedaling systems, type of competition, among others. This study particularly focuses on the description of the dynamic model of a transtibial prosthesis for Paralympic cyclists. To make the model, two points are chosen: in the radius centers of rotation of the plate and pinion of the track bicycle. The parametric scheme of the track bike represents a model of 6 degrees of freedom due to the displacement in X - Y of each of the reference points of the angles of the curve profile β, cant of the velodrome α and the angle of rotation of the connecting rod φ. The force exerted on the crank of the bicycle varies according to the angles of the curve profile β, the velodrome cant of α and the angle of rotation of the crank φ. The behavior is analyzed through the Matlab R2015a software. The average strength that a cyclist exerts on the cranks of a bicycle is 1,607.1 N, the Paralympic cyclist must perform a force on each crank about 803.6 N. Once the maximum force associated with the movement has been determined, it is continued to the dynamic modeling of the transtibial prosthesis that represents a model of 6 degrees of freedom with displacement in X - Y in relation to the angles of rotation of the hip π, knee γ and ankle λ. Subsequently, an analysis of the kinematic behavior of the prosthesis was carried out by means of SolidWorks 2017 and Matlab R2015a, which was used to model and analyze the variation of the hip angles π, knee γ and ankle of the λ prosthesis. The reaction forces generated in the prosthesis were performed on the ankle of the prosthesis, performing the summation of forces on the X and Y axes. The same analysis was then applied to the tibia of the prosthesis and the socket. The reaction force of the parts of the prosthesis varies according to the hip angles π, knee γ and ankle of the prosthesis λ. Therefore, it can be deduced that the maximum forces experienced by the ankle of the prosthesis is 933.6 N on the X axis and 2.160.5 N on the Y axis. Finally, it is calculated that the maximum forces experienced by the tibia and the socket of the transtibial prosthesis in high performance competitions is 3.266 N on the X axis and 1.357 N on the Y axis. In conclusion, it can be said that the performance of the cyclist depends on several physiological factors, linked to biomechanics of training. The influence of biomechanical factors such as aerodynamics, bicycle measurements, connecting rod length, or non-circular pedaling systems on the cyclist performance.

Keywords: biomechanics, dynamic model, paralympic cyclist, transtibial prosthesis

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Authors: Mustarakh Gelfi, Poonam Taneja, Tiedo Vellinga, Delon Hamonangan

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The initial masterplan of New Priok in the Port of Tanjung Priok was developed in 2012 is being updated to cater to new developments and new demands. In the new masterplan (2017), Phase II of development will start from 2035-onwards, depending on the future conditions. This study is about creating a robust masterplan for Phase II, which will remain functional under future uncertainties. The methodology applied in this study is scenario-based planning in the framework of Adaptive Port Planning (APP). Scenario-based planning helps to open up the perspective of the future as a horizon of possibilities. The scenarios are built around two major uncertainties in a 2x2 matrix approach. The two major uncertainties for New Priok port are economics and sustainability awareness. The outcome is four plausible scenarios: Green Port, Business As Usual, Moderate Expansion, and No Expansion. Terminal needs in each scenario are analyzed through traffic analysis and identifying the key cargos and commodities. In conclusion, this study gives the wide perspective for Port of Tanjung Priok for the planning Phase II of the development. The port has to realize that uncertainties persevere and are very likely to influence the decision making as to the future layouts. Instead of ignoring uncertainty, the port needs to make the action plans to deal with these uncertainties.

Keywords: Indonesia Port, port's layout, port planning, scenario-based planning

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Authors: Boris Blostotsky, Elia Efraim

Abstract:

The phenomenon of buckling of structural elements under compression is revealed in many cases of loading and found consideration in many structures and mechanisms. In the present work the method and results of dynamic test for buckling of bar loaded by a compression force directed towards the pole are considered. Experimental determination of critical force for such system has not been made previously. The tested object is a bar with semi-rigid connection to the base at one of its ends, and with a hinge moving along a circle at the other. The test includes measuring the natural frequency of the bar at different values of compression load. The lateral stiffness is calculated based on natural frequency and reduced mass on the bar's movable end. The critical load is determined by extrapolation the values of lateral stiffness up to zero value. For the experimental investigation the special test-bed was created that allows the stability testing at positive and negative curvature of the movable end's trajectory, as well as varying the rotational stiffness of the other end connection. Decreasing a friction at the movable end allows extend the diapason of applied compression force. The testing method includes: - Methodology of the experiment planning, that allows determine the required number of tests under various loads values in the defined range and the type of extrapolating function; - Methodology of experimental determination of reduced mass at the bar's movable end including its own mass; - Methodology of experimental determination of lateral stiffness of uncompressed bar rotational semi-rigid connection at the base. For planning the experiment and for comparison of the experimental results with the theoretical values of critical load, the analytical dependencies of lateral stiffness of the bar with defined end conditions on compression load. In the particular case of perfectly rigid connection of the bar to the base, the critical load value corresponds to solution by S.P. Timoshenko. Correspondence of the calculated and experimental values was obtained.

Keywords: non-destructive test, buckling, dynamic method, semi-rigid connections

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Authors: Ivana Bulog, Ana Rimac Smiljanić, Sandra Pepur

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The financial fragility of households has received increased attention following the recent health crisis, which has created uncertainty and caused increased levels of stress and consequently impaired individual and family well-being. Job losses and/or reduced wages and insecurity increased the number of people that were unable to meet unexpected expenses, which, in many cases, led to increased household debt levels. This presents a threat to the stability of the financial system and the whole economy; therefore, reducing financial fragility and improving financial literacy present challenges for academicians, practitioners, and policymakers. Concerning financial fragility, significant research attention has been devoted to financial knowledge and financial literacy. However, apart from specific knowledge, personal characteristics are of great importance in making financial decisions in the household. Self-efficacy is one of the personal non-cognitive attributes that is a valuable framework for understanding how household financial decisions are made. Thus, this research proposes that individual levels of financial literacy and self-efficacy are related to the indebtedness and financial instability of the household. The primary data were collected using a structured, self-administered online questionnaire, and a snowball sampling method was applied to reach the participants. Preliminary results confirm our assumptions on the influence of financial literacy and self-efficacy on household financial stability.

Keywords: financial literacy, self-efficacy, household financial fragility, well-being

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Authors: Raphaël Weuts, Mykyta Petik, Anton Vedder

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence has the potential to create and already creates enormous value in healthcare. Prescriptive systems might be able to make the use of healthcare capacity more efficient. Such systems might entail interpretations that exclude the effect of confounders that brings risks with it. Those risks might be mitigated by regulation that prevents systems entailing such risks to come to market. One modality of regulation is that of legislation, and the European AI Act is an example of such a regulatory instrument that might mitigate these risks. To assess the risk mitigation potential of the AI Act for those risks, this research focusses on a case study of a hypothetical application of medical device software that entails the aforementioned risks. The AI Act refers to the harmonised norms for already existing legislation, here being the European medical device regulation. The issue at hand is a causal link between a confounder and the value the algorithm optimises for by proxy. The research identifies where the AI Act already looks at confounders (i.a. feedback loops in systems that continue to learn after being placed on the market). The research identifies where the current proposal by parliament leaves legal uncertainty on the necessity to check for confounders that do not influence the input of the system, when the system does not continue to learn after being placed on the market. The authors propose an amendment to article 15 of the AI Act that would require high-risk systems to be developed in such a way as to mitigate risks from those aforementioned confounders.

Keywords: AI Act, healthcare, confounders, risks

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Authors: Byl Farney Cunha Junior

Abstract:

In this work the dynamic three-dimensional analysis of a 47-story building located in Goiania city when subjected to wind loads generated using both the Wind Brazilian code, NBR6123 (ABNT, 1988) and the Synthetic-Wind method is realized. To model the frames three different methodologies are used: the shear building model and both bi and three-dimensional finite element models. To start the analysis, a plane frame is initially studied to validate the shear building model and, in order to compare the results of natural frequencies and displacements at the top of the structure the same plane frame was modeled using the finite element method through the SAP2000 V10 software. The same steps were applied to an idealized 20-story spacial frame that helps in the presentation of the stiffness correction process applied to columns. Based on these models the two methods used to generate the Wind loads are presented: a discrete model proposed in the Wind Brazilian code, NBR6123 (ABNT, 1988) and the Synthetic-Wind method. The method uses the Davenport spectrum which is divided into a variety of frequencies to generate the temporal series of loads. Finally, the 47- story building was analyzed using both the three-dimensional finite element method through the SAP2000 V10 software and the shear building model. The models were loaded with Wind load generated by the Wind code NBR6123 (ABNT, 1988) and by the Synthetic-Wind method considering different wind directions. The displacements and internal forces in columns and beams were compared and a comparative study considering a situation of a full elevated reservoir is realized. As can be observed the displacements obtained by the SAP2000 V10 model are greater when loaded with NBR6123 (ABNT, 1988) wind load related to the permanent phase of the structure’s response.

Keywords: finite element method, synthetic wind, tall buildings, shear building

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Authors: Abeer Amayri, Akif A. Bulgak

Abstract:

Due to today’s globalization as well as outsourcing practices of the companies, the Supply Chain (SC) performances have become more dependent on the efficient movement of material among places that are geographically dispersed, where there is more chance for disruptions. One such disruption is the quality and delivery uncertainties of outsourcing. These uncertainties could lead the products to be unsafe and, as is the case in a number of recent examples, companies may have to end up in recalling their products. As a result of these problems, there is a need to develop a methodology for selecting suppliers globally in view of risks associated with low quality and late delivery. Accordingly, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that captures the risks associated with uncertainty in quality and delivery as well as a solution procedure for the model. The stochastic model developed simultaneously optimizes supplier selection and purchase quantities under price discounts over a time horizon. In particular, our target is the study of global organizations with multiple sites and multiple overseas suppliers, where the pricing is offered in suppliers’ local currencies. Our proposed methodology is applied to a case study for a US automotive company having two assembly plants and four potential global suppliers to illustrate how the proposed model works in practice.

Keywords: global supply chains, quality, stochastic programming, supplier selection

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Authors: Angelo Lerro, Manuela Battipede, Piero Gili, Alberto Brandl

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Redundancy requirements for UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) are hardly faced due to the generally restricted amount of available space and allowable weight for the aircraft systems, limiting their exploitation. Essential equipment as the Air Data, Attitude and Heading Reference Systems (ADAHRS) require several external probes to measure significant data as the Angle of Attack or the Sideslip Angle. Previous research focused on the analysis of a patented technology named Smart-ADAHRS (Smart Air Data, Attitude and Heading Reference System) as an alternative method to obtain reliable and accurate estimates of the aerodynamic angles. This solution is based on an innovative sensor fusion algorithm implementing soft computing techniques and it allows to obtain a simplified inertial and air data system reducing external devices. In fact, only one external source of dynamic and static pressures is needed. This paper focuses on the benefits which would be gained by the implementation of this system in UAV applications. A simplification of the entire ADAHRS architecture will bring to reduce the overall cost together with improved safety performance. Smart-ADAHRS has currently reached Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. Real flight tests took place on ultralight aircraft equipped with a suitable Flight Test Instrumentation (FTI). The output of the algorithm using the flight test measurements demonstrates the capability for this fusion algorithm to embed in a single device multiple physical and virtual sensors. Any source of dynamic and static pressure can be integrated with this system gaining a significant improvement in terms of versatility.

Keywords: aerodynamic angles, air data system, flight test, neural network, unmanned aerial vehicle, virtual sensor

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Authors: Alexa L. Walsh, Christine Hartl, Juliette Ferdschneider, Lezode Kipoliongo, Eleonora Feketeova

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The investigation of COVID-19 and its effects has been at the forefront of clinical research since its emergence in the United States in 2020. Although the possibility of severe infection in immunocompromised individuals has been documented, within the general population of pregnant individuals, there remains to be vaccine hesitancy and uncertainty regarding how the virus may affect the individual and fetus. To combat this hesitancy, this study aims to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 infection on maternal and neonatal complication rates. This retrospective study was conducted by manual chart review of women who were diagnosed with COVID-19 during pregnancy (n = 78) and women who were not diagnosed with COVID-19 during pregnancy (n = 1,124) that gave birth at Garnet Health Medical Centers between 1/1/2019-1/1/2021. Both the COVID+ and COVID- groups exhibited similar median ages, BMI, and parity. The rates of complications were compared between the groups and statistical significance was determined using Chi-squared analysis. Results demonstrated a statistically higher rate of PROM, polyhydramnios, oligohydramnios, GDM, DVT/PE, preterm birth, and the overall incidence of any birth complication in the population that was infected with COVID-19 during their pregnancy. With this information, obstetrical providers can be better prepared for the management of COVID-19+ pregnancies and continue to educate their patients on the benefits of vaccination.

Keywords: complications, COVID-19, Gynecology, Obstetrics

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Authors: Dorota Kobus-Ostrowska

Abstract:

Work for everyone, especially for person with disability is a condition in independence; it secures basic needs and develops manual and intellectual capabilities. The work is a source of income, and it builds and strengthens of self-esteem and competence. The purpose of this article is to identify work as an important factor in everyone’s life, despite Polish disabled persons rarely having the chance to undertake a job. In order to achieve this purpose, two methods were used: comparative and qualitative. The theoretical part of this article is based on studies of a wide range of Polish and foreign literature devoted to the issue of the occupational development of people with disabilities. The article was also enriched with the institutional and legal analysis types of support for people with disabilities in Poland. Currently, a Polish person with disability who wants to enter or return to the labor market is under a special protection. Those entities employing workers with disabilities may obtain a subsidy for the salary of a person with disabilities. Unfortunately, people with disability in Poland rarely participate in the workforce. The factors that contribute to this include the difficulty in obtaining work, the uncertainty of keeping it, and the low salary offered. Despite that domestic and foreign literature highlight the important role of disabled people as a workforce, very few people with disability in Poland are economically active.

Keywords: disabled person, employer, rehabilitation, work

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Authors: Brajesh Kumar, Luis Cumbal

Abstract:

An eco-friendly Citrus paradisi peel extract mediated synthesis of TiO2 nanoparticles is reported under sonication. U.V.-vis, Transmission Electron Microscopy, Dynamic Light Scattering and X-ray analyses are performed to characterize the formation of TiO2 nanoparticles. It is almost spherical in shape, having a size of 60–140 nm and the XRD peaks at 2θ = 25.363° confirm the characteristic facets for anatase form. The synthesized nano catalyst is highly active in the decomposition of methyl orange (64 mg/L) in sunlight (~73%) for 2.5 hours.

Keywords: eco-friendly, TiO2 nanoparticles, citrus paradisi, TEM

Procedia PDF Downloads 523