Search results for: predictive decision

Authors: Rui Serôdio, Alexandra Serra, José Albino Lima, Luísa Catita, Paula Lopes

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We will present the outline of the Project SIA (Social Inclusion through Accessibility) focusing in one of its core components: how our applied research model contributes to define community participation as a pillar for strategic and political agenda amongst local authorities. Project ISA, supported by EU regional funding, was design as part of a broader model developed by SIMLab–Social Inclusion Monitoring Laboratory, in which the relation University-Community is a core element. The project illustrates how University of Porto developed a large scale project of applied psychology research in a close partnership with 18 municipalities that cover almost all regions of Portugal, and with a private architecture enterprise, specialized in inclusive accessibility and “design for all”. Three fundamental goals were defined: (1) creation of a model that would promote the effective civic participation of local citizens; (2) the “voice” of such participation should be both individual and collective; (3) the scientific and technical framework should serve as one of the bases for political decision on inclusive accessibility local planning. The two main studies were run in a standardized model across all municipalities and the samples of the three modalities of community participation were the following: individual participation based on 543 semi-structured interviews and 6373 inquiries; collective participation based on group session with 302 local citizens. We present some of the broader findings of Project SIA and discuss how they relate to our applied research model.

Keywords: applied psychology, collective identity, community participation, inclusive accessibility

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Authors: David Cook, Brynhildur Davidsdottir, Dadi. M. Kristofersson

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The approval of development projects with significant environmental impacts implies that the economic costs of the affected environmental resources must be less than the financial benefits, but such irreversible decisions are frequently made without ever attempting to estimate the monetary value of the losses. Due to this knowledge gap in the processes informing decision-making, development projects are commonly approved despite the potential for social welfare to be undermined. Heeding a repeated call by the OECD to commence economic accounting of environmental impacts as part of the cost-benefit analysis process for Icelandic energy projects, this paper sets out the results pertaining to the nation’s first two contingent valuation studies of geothermal areas likely to be developed in the near future. Interval regression using log-transformation was applied to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for the preservation of the high-temperature Eldvörp and Hverahlíð fields. The estimated mean WTP was 8,333 and 7,122 ISK for Eldvörp and Hverahlíð respectively. Scaled up to the Icelandic population of national taxpayers, this equates to estimated total economic value of 2.10 and 1.77 billion ISK respectively. These results reinforce arguments in favour of accounting for the environmental impacts of Iceland’s future geothermal power projects as a mandatory component of the exploratory and production license application process. Further research is necessary to understand the economic impacts to specific ecosystem services associated with geothermal environments, particularly connected to changes in recreational amenity. In so doing, it would be possible to gain greater comprehension of the various components of total economic value, evolving understanding of why one geothermal area – in this case, Eldvörp – has a higher preservation value than another.

Keywords: decision-making, contingent valuation, geothermal energy, preservation

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Authors: Umugwaneza Francoise, Ntamazeze Janviere, Donghong Ding

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Entrepreneurship has been considered by majority people from developing world as “no other option” kind of career. Consequently, for a long time entrepreneurship in developing countries has been mainly practiced by people who have low or not at all formal education. Even today, to some extent, much of the actions taken by governments, donors and some societies have tendency to consider entrepreneurship as an instrument to lift up the most vulnerable population including uneducated women, school drop outers, people with disabilities and other groups who live with some sort of vulnerability. However, there is a shortage of knowledge based and know-how entrepreneurship in developing countries. Although, the entrepreneurship done with formal educated people would contribute indispensably and sustain the development, the low numbers of formal educated people become entrepreneurs in developing countries. Empirically, this paper investigated the influential factors affecting the entrepreneurial motivation, intentions and decision among African scientists and engineers postgraduate from china universities since 1995 to 2014. Results revealed that 39% are entrepreneurs, 43% work for private sectors and 18% work for governments. Only 6% of respondents are in technological entrepreneurship related to their field of graduation. Study location, mentors or research supervisors and life style are the major factors influenced their decisions to become entrepreneurs whereas complex financial systems and political instability pushed some to employments. Interestingly, significant number of entrepreneurs did not have any entrepreneurial intentions. This paper concludes with suggestions to policy makers and investors in order to encouraging technological entrepreneurs which will provide more opportunities, create jobs and improve people’s quality of life.

Keywords: technological entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial motivation, entrepreneurship decision making, entrepreneurship intentions, formal education

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Authors: Han Kuikui

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Adolescents, serving as the reserve force for technological innovation talents, possess STEM creativity that is not only pivotal to achieving STEM education goals but also provides a viable path for reforming science curricula in compulsory education and cultivating innovative talents in China. To investigate the relationship among adolescents' grit, creative self-efficacy, future time perspective, and STEM creativity, a survey was conducted in 2023 using stratified random sampling. A total of 1263 junior high school students from the main urban areas of Chongqing, from grade 7 to grade 9, were sampled. The results indicated that (1) Grit positively predicts adolescents' creative self-efficacy and STEM creativity significantly; (2) Creative self-efficacy mediates the positive relationship between grit and adolescents' STEM creativity; (3) The mediating role of creative self-efficacy is moderated by future time perspective, such that with a higher future time perspective, the positive predictive effect of grit on creative self-efficacy is more substantial, which in turn positively affects their STEM creativity.

Keywords: grit, stem creativity, creative self-efficacy, future time perspective

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Authors: Anil Anand

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Despite enormous strides made during the past decade, particularly with the adoption and expansion of community policing, there remains much that police leaders can do to improve police-public relations. The urgency is particularly evident in cities across the United States and Europe where an increasing number of police interactions over the past few years have ignited large, sometimes even national, protests against police policy and strategy, highlighting a gap between what police leaders feel they have archived in terms of public satisfaction, support, and legitimacy and the perception of bias among many marginalized communities. The decision on which one policing strategy is chosen over another, how many resources are allocated, and how strenuously the policy is applied resides primarily with the police and the units and subunits tasked with its enforcement. The scope and opportunity for police officers in impacting social attitudes and social policy are important elements that cannot be overstated. How do police leaders, for instance, decide when to apply one strategy—say community-based policing—over another, like intelligence-led policing? How do police leaders measure performance and success? Should these measures be based on quantitative preferences over qualitative, or should the preference be based on some other criteria? And how do police leaders define, allow, and control discretionary decision-making? Mending Broken Fences Policing provides police and security services leaders with a model based on social cohesion, that incorporates intelligence-led and community policing (IP-CP), supplemented by a quality/quantity/crime (QQC) framework to provide a four-step process for the articulable application of police intervention, performance measurement, and application of discretion.

Keywords: social cohesion, quantitative performance measurement, qualitative performance measurement, sustainable leadership

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Authors: Emmanuel Chibuogu Asogwa, Tochukwu Sunday Belonwu

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An urgent demand for creative solutions has been created by the rapid expansion of medical knowledge, the complexity of patient care, and the requirement for more precise decision-making. As a solution to this problem, the creation of a Medical Intelligent Process Model (MIPM) utilizing ontology-based appears as a promising way to overcome this obstacle and unleash the full potential of healthcare systems. The development of a Medical Intelligent Process Model (MIPM) using ontology-based techniques is motivated by a lack of quick access to relevant medical information and advanced tools for treatment planning and clinical decision-making, which ontology-based techniques can provide. The aim of this work is to develop a structured and knowledge-driven framework that leverages ontology, a formal representation of domain knowledge, to enhance various aspects of healthcare. Object-Oriented Analysis and Design Methodology (OOADM) were adopted in the design of the system as we desired to build a usable and evolvable application. For effective implementation of this work, we used the following materials/methods/tools: the medical dataset for the test of our model in this work was obtained from Kaggle. The ontology-based technique was used with Confusion Matrix, MySQL, Python, Hypertext Markup Language (HTML), Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP), Cascaded Style Sheet (CSS), JavaScript, Dreamweaver, and Fireworks. According to test results on the new system using Confusion Matrix, both the accuracy and overall effectiveness of the medical intelligent process significantly improved by 20% compared to the previous system. Therefore, using the model is recommended for healthcare professionals.

Keywords: ontology-based, model, database, OOADM, healthcare

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Authors: F. Iberraken, R. Medjoudj, D. Aissani

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The development of the smart grids concept is built around two separate definitions, namely: The European one oriented towards sustainable development and the American one oriented towards reliability and security of supply. In this paper, we have investigated reliability merits enabling decision-makers to provide a high quality of service. It is based on system behavior using interruptions and failures modeling and forecasting from one hand and on the contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to mitigate catastrophic ones such as blackouts from the other hand. It was found that this concept has been adopted by developing and emerging countries in short and medium terms followed by sustainability concept at long term planning. This work has highlighted the reliability merits such as: Benefits, opportunities, costs and risks considered as consistent units of measuring power customer satisfaction. From the decision making point of view, we have used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to achieve customer satisfaction, based on the reliability merits and the contribution of such energy resources. Certainly nowadays, fossil and nuclear ones are dominating energy production but great advances are already made to jump into cleaner ones. It was demonstrated that theses resources are not only environmentally but also economically and socially sustainable. The paper is organized as follows: Section one is devoted to the introduction, where an implicit review of smart grids development is given for the two main concepts (for USA and Europeans countries). The AHP method and the BOCR developments of reliability merits against power customer satisfaction are developed in section two. The benefits where expressed by the high level of availability, maintenance actions applicability and power quality. Opportunities were highlighted by the implementation of ICT in data transfer and processing, the mastering of peak demand control, the decentralization of the production and the power system management in default conditions. Costs were evaluated using cost-benefit analysis, including the investment expenditures in network security, becoming a target to hackers and terrorists, and the profits of operating as decentralized systems, with a reduced energy not supplied, thanks to the availability of storage units issued from renewable resources and to the current power lines (CPL) enabling the power dispatcher to manage optimally the load shedding. For risks, we have razed the adhesion of citizens to contribute financially to the system and to the utility restructuring. What is the degree of their agreement compared to the guarantees proposed by the managers about the information integrity? From technical point of view, have they sufficient information and knowledge to meet a smart home and a smart system? In section three, an application of AHP method is made to achieve power customer satisfaction based on the main energy resources as alternatives, using knowledge issued from a country that has a great advance in energy mutation. Results and discussions are given in section four. It was given us to conclude that the option to a given resource depends on the attitude of the decision maker (prudent, optimistic or pessimistic), and that status quo is neither sustainable nor satisfactory.

Keywords: reliability, AHP, renewable energy resources, smart grids

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Authors: Alireza Jalilifar, Nadia Mayahi

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The dissertation defense as a complicated conflict-prone context entails the adoption of elegant interactional strategies, one of which is self-denigration. This study aimed to develop and validate a self-denigration model that fits the context of doctoral defense sessions in applied linguistics. Two focus group discussions provided the basis for developing this conceptual model, which assumed 10 functions for self-denigration, namely good manners, modesty, affability, altruism, assertiveness, diffidence, coercive self-deprecation, evasion, diplomacy, and flamboyance. These functions were used to design a 40-item questionnaire on the attitudes of applied linguists concerning self-denigration in defense sessions. The confirmatory factor analysis of the questionnaire indicated the predictive ability of the measurement model. The findings of this study suggest that self-denigration in doctoral defense sessions is the social representation of the participants’ values, ideas and practices adopted as a negotiation strategy and a conflict management policy for the purpose of establishing harmony and maintaining resilience. This study has implications for doctoral students and academics and illuminates further research on self-denigration in other contexts.

Keywords: academic discourse, politeness, self-denigration, grounded theory, dissertation defense

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Authors: Deyadeen Ali Alshibani

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In the literature, the multi-armed bandit problem as a statistical decision model of an agent trying to optimize his decisions while improving his information at the same time. There are several different algorithms models and their applications on this problem. In this paper, we evaluate the Regret-regression through comparing with Q-learning method. A simulation on determination of optimal treatment regime is presented in detail.

Keywords: optimal, bandit problem, optimization, dynamic programming

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Authors: Jonah Kenei, Elisha Opiyo

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Electronic health records, as a repository of patient information, is nowadays the most commonly used technology to record, store and review patient clinical records and perform other clinical tasks. However, the accurate identification and retrieval of relevant information from clinical records is a difficult task due to the unstructured nature of clinical documents, characterized in particular by a lack of clear structure. Therefore, medical practice is facing a challenge thanks to the rapid growth of health information in electronic health records (EHRs), mostly in narrative text form. As a result, it's becoming important to effectively manage the growing amount of data for a single patient. As a result, there is currently a requirement to visualize electronic health records (EHRs) in a way that aids physicians in clinical tasks and medical decision-making. Leveraging text visualization techniques to unstructured clinical narrative texts is a new area of research that aims to provide better information extraction and retrieval to support clinical decision support in scenarios where data generated continues to grow. Clinical datasets in electronic health records (EHR) offer a lot of potential for training accurate statistical models to classify facets of information which can then be used to improve patient care and outcomes. However, in many clinical note datasets, the unstructured nature of clinical texts is a common problem. This paper examines the very issue of getting raw clinical texts and mapping them into meaningful structures that can support healthcare professionals utilizing narrative texts. Our work is the result of a collaborative design process that was aided by empirical data collected through formal usability testing.

Keywords: classification, electronic health records, narrative texts, visualization

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Authors: Safa Kaka

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As more and more students are travelling to different countries to study and, in particular, to study English, the question of what motivates them to make such a large move has come under question. This is particularly pertinent in the case of Arab students who make up nearly 15% of the foreign student body in the UK. Given that the cultural differences between the UK and Arab nations are extremely wide, the decision to come to this country to study English must be driven by strong motivational forces. Numerous previous studies have considered what motivates foreign students to travel to the UK and other countries for their education or language learning but the specific motivators of Arab students have yet to be explored. This study undertakes to close that gap by examining the concepts and theories of motivation, both in general terms and in relation to English learning and foreign study. 70 Arab students currently studying in the UK were asked to participate in an online questionnaire which asked about their motivations for coming to the UK and for studying and learning English. A further six individuals were interviewed on a face to face basis. The outcomes have indicated that the factors which motivate the decision to come to the UK are similar to those that motivate the desire to learn English. In particular a motivation for self-improvement, career advancement and potential future benefits were cited by a number of respondents. Other indications were the ease of accessibility to the UK as an English speaking country, a motivation to experience different cultures and lifestyles and even political freedoms. Overall the motivations of Arab students were not found to be conspicuously different from those of other foreign students, although it was noted that their motivations did change, both positively and negatively following a period of time in the country. These changes were based on the expectations of the students pre-arrival and their actual experience of the country and its teaching approaches and establishments and were, as indicated both good and bad. The implications for the Arab student population and UK educational establishments are reviewed and future research pathways highlighted.

Keywords: motivation, Arab learners of English, language teaching, applied linguistics

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Authors: S. M. Anowarul Haque, Md. Asiful Islam

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Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

Keywords: load forecasting, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization

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Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

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Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

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Authors: Myung-Soo Lee, Sun-Jin Jo, Kyoung-Sae Na, Joo-Eon Park

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Early intervention after a disaster is important for recovery of disaster victims and each country has its own professional mental health service system such as Disaster Psychiatric Assistant Team in Japan and Crisis Counseling Program in the USA. The purpose of this study was to determine key prior components of the Korean Disaster Psychiatric Assistant Team (K-DPAT) for building up Korean disaster mental health service system. We conducted an Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) with disaster mental health experts using pairwise comparison questionnaire which compares the relative importance of the key components of Korean disaster mental health service system. Forty-one experts answered the first online survey, and among them, 36 responded to the second. Ten experts were participated in panel meeting and discussed the results of the survey and AHP process. Participants decided the relative importance of the Korean disaster mental health service system regarding initial professional intervention as follows. K-DPAT could be organized at a national level (43.0%) or regional level (40.0%). K-DPAT members should be managed (59.0%) and educated (52.1%) by national level than regional or local level. K-DPAT should be organized independent of the preexisting mental health system (70.1%). Funding for K-DPAT should be from the Ministry of Public Safety and the system could be managed by Ministry of Health (65.8%). Experts agreed K-DPAT leader is suitable for key decision maker for most types of disaster except infectious disease. We expect new model for disaster mental health services can improve insufficiency of the system such as fragmentation and decrease the unmet needs of early professional intervention for the disaster victims.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, decision making, disaster, DPAT, mental health services

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Authors: Loris Franchi, Daniele Calvi, Sabrina Corpino

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This paper presents a design methodology in which stakeholders are assisted with the exploration of a so-called negotiation space, aiming to the maximization of both group social welfare and single stakeholder’s perceived utility. The outcome results in less design iterations needed for design convergence while obtaining a higher solution effectiveness. During the early stage of a space project, not only the knowledge about the system but also the decision outcomes often are unknown. The scenario is exacerbated by the fact that decisions taken in this stage imply delayed costs associated with them. Hence, it is necessary to have a clear definition of the problem under analysis, especially in the initial definition. This can be obtained thanks to a robust generation and exploration of design alternatives. This process must consider that design usually involves various individuals, who take decisions affecting one another. An effective coordination among these decision-makers is critical. Finding mutual agreement solution will reduce the iterations involved in the design process. To handle this scenario, the paper proposes a design methodology which, aims to speed-up the process of pushing the mission’s concept maturity level. This push up is obtained thanks to a guided negotiation space exploration, which involves autonomously exploration and optimization of trade opportunities among stakeholders via Artificial Intelligence algorithms. The negotiation space is generated via a multidisciplinary collaborative optimization method, infused by game theory and multi-attribute utility theory. In particular, game theory is able to model the negotiation process to reach the equilibria among stakeholder needs. Because of the huge dimension of the negotiation space, a collaborative optimization framework with evolutionary algorithm has been integrated in order to guide the game process to efficiently and rapidly searching for the Pareto equilibria among stakeholders. At last, the concept of utility constituted the mechanism to bridge the language barrier between experts of different backgrounds and differing needs, using the elicited and modeled needs to evaluate a multitude of alternatives. To highlight the benefits of the proposed methodology, the paper presents the design of a CubeSat mission for the observation of lunar radiation environment. The derived solution results able to balance all stakeholders needs and guaranteeing the effectiveness of the selection mission concept thanks to its robustness in valuable changeability. The benefits provided by the proposed design methodology are highlighted, and further development proposed.

Keywords: concurrent engineering, artificial intelligence, negotiation in engineering design, multidisciplinary optimization

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Authors: Olabisi Badmos, Daniel Callo-Concha, Babatunde Agbola, Andreas Rienow, Klaus Greve, Carsten Jurgens

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Slums are important components of city development planning, especially in Africa where slum growth is on par with urban growth. Purposefully, our knowledge on the residential choice of slum dwellers, which contributes to population growth in slums, is limited. This is the case in Lagos, a megacity reportedly dominated by slum dwellers. Thus, this study aims to disclose the factors influencing the residential choices and causes of people to remain in Lagos slums. Data was collected through questionnaire administration and focus group discussions. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze and describe the factors influencing residential location choice; logistic regression was utilized to determine the extent to which the neighborhood and household attributes, influence slum dwellers decisions to remain in the slums. Results showed that movement to Lagos was the main cause of population growth in slums; most of the migrants were from closer geopolitical zones (in Nigeria). Further, the movement patterns observed support two theories of human mobility in slums: slum as a sink, and as a final destination. Also, the factors that brought most of the slum dwellers to the slums (cheap housing, proximity to work etc.) differs from the ones that made them stay (Gender, employment status, housing status etc.). This study concludes that residential choice and intention to stay are the major contributors to population growth in a slum. It is therefore important for Lagos state Government to incorporate these elements of residential choices of slum dwellers in their slum management policies if the city aims to be free of slums by 2030

Keywords: Lagos, population growth, residential decision choices, slum

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Authors: Qin Xvelian

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organic renewal" based on the development of existing resources in high-density urban areas has become the mainstream of urban development in the new era. As an important stock resource of public space in high-density urban areas, promoting its value remodeling is an effective way to alleviate the shortage of public space resources. However, due to the lack of evaluation links in the process of underpass space renewal, a large number of underpass space resources have been left idle, facing the problems of low space conversion efficiency, lack of accuracy in development decision-making, and low adaptability of functional positioning to citizens' needs. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to construct the evaluation system of under-bridge space renewal potential and explore the renewal mode. In this paper, some of the under-bridge spaces in the main urban area of Chongqing are selected as the research object. Through the questionnaire interviews with the users of the built excellent space under the bridge, three types of six levels and twenty-two potential evaluation indexes of "objective demand factor, construction feasibility factor and construction suitability factor" are selected, including six levels of land resources, infrastructure, accessibility, safety, space quality and ecological environment. The analytical hierarchy process and expert scoring method are used to determine the index weight, construct the potential evaluation system of the space under the bridge in high-density urban areas of Chongqing, and explore the direction of renewal and utilization of its suitability. To provide feasible theoretical basis and scientific decision support for the use of under bridge space in the future.

Keywords: high density urban area, potential evaluation, space under bridge, updated using

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Authors: Fangtian Fan, Zhaoguo Liu, Yin Lu

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Early recurrence (ER) (< 1 year) after liver resection is one of the most important factors that impacts the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the molecular mechanisms and predictive indexes of ER after curative resection remain largely unknown. The present study aimed to exploit the role of EGFR signaling in EMT and early recurrence of HCC after curative resection and elucidate the molecular mechanisms. Our results showed that nuclear beta-catenin / PKM2 was a independent predictor of early recurrence after curative resection in EGFR-overexpressed HCC. Mechanistic investigation indicated that nuclear accumulation of beta-catenin and PKM2 induced by EGFR signal promoted HCC cell invasion and proliferation, which were required for early recurrence of HCC. These effects were mediated by PI3K/AKT and ERK pathways rather than the canonical Wnt signaling. In conclusions, EGFR signal induced-nuclear translocation of beta-catenin and PKM2 promotes HCC malignancy and indicates early recurrence after curative resection.

Keywords: beta-catenin, early recurrence, hepatocellular carcinoma, malignancy, PKM2

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Authors: Ali E. Abbas

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This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.

Keywords: decision analysis, thresholds, risk, reliability

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Authors: Ayoub El Bourtali, Abdessamed Najine, Amrou Moussa Benmoussa

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It is becoming more and more necessary to manage flood risk, and it must include all stakeholders and all possible means available. The goal of this work is to map the vulnerability of the Oued Derna-region Tagzirt flood zone in the semi-arid region. This is about implementing predictive models and flood control. This allows for the development of flood risk prevention plans. In this study, A resistivity survey was conducted over the area to locate and evaluate soil characteristics in order to calculate discharges and prevent flooding for the study area. The development of a one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic model of the Derna River was carried out in HEC-RAS 5.0.4 using a combination of survey data and spatially extracted cross-sections and recorded river flows. The study area was hit by several extreme floods, causing a lot of property loss and loss of life. This research focuses on the most recent flood events, based on the collected data, the water level, river flow and river cross-section were analyzed. A set of flood levels were obtained as the outputs of the hydraulic model and the accuracy of the simulated flood levels and velocity.

Keywords: derna river, 1D hydrodynamic model, flood modelling, HEC-RAS 5.0.4

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Authors: Nelson Barrientos, Matthew J. Davies, Marco C. Marques, Darren N. Nesbeth, Gary J. Lye, Nicolas Szita

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Microbioreactor technology is making important advances towards its application in cell culture and bioprocess development. In particular, the technology promises flexible and controllable devices capable to perform parallelised experimentation at low cost. Currently, state of the art methods (e.g. optical sensors) allow the accurate monitoring of the microbioreactor operation. In addition, the laminar flow regime encountered in these devices allows more predictive fluid dynamics modelling, improving the control over the soluble, physical and mechanical environment of the cells. This work describes the development and characterisation of a novel microbioreactor cassette system (microbioreactor volume is 150 μL. The volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (KLa) and mixing time have been characterised to be between 25 to 113 h-1 and 0.5 and 0.1 s, respectively. In addition, the Residence time distribution (RTD) analysis confirms that the reactor operates at well mixed conditions. Finally, Staphylococcus carnosus TM300 growth is demonstrated via batch culture experiments. Future work consists in expanding the optics of the microbioreactor design to include the monitoring of variables such as fluorescent protein expression, among others.

Keywords: microbioreactor, cell-culture, fermentation, microfluidics

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Authors: Ali E. Abbas

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Industrial Engineering is a broad multidisciplinary field with intersections and applications in numerous areas. When designing a product, it is important to determine the appropriate attributes of value and the preference function for which the product is optimized. This paper provides some guidelines on appropriate selection of attributes for preference and value functions for engineering design.

Keywords: decision analysis, industrial engineering, direct vs. indirect values, engineering management

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Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh

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In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.

Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion

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Authors: Dina Farran, Mark Ashworth, Fiona Gaughran

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Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia, is associated with an increased risk of stroke, contributing to heart failure and death. In this project, we aim to improve patient safety by screening for stroke risk among people with AF and co-morbid mental illness. To do so, we started by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis on prevalence, management, and outcomes of AF in people with Serious Mental Illness (SMI) versus the general population. We then evaluated oral anticoagulation (OAC) prescription trends in people with AF and co-morbid SMI in King’s College Hospital. We also evaluated the association between mental illness severity and OAC prescription in eligible patients in South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Foundation Trust. Next, we implemented an electronic clinical decision support system (eCDSS) consisting of a visual prompt on patient electronic Personal Health Records to screen for AF-related stroke risk in three Mental Health of Older Adults wards at SLaM. Finally, we assessed the feasibility and acceptability of the eCDSS by qualitatively investigating clinicians’ perspectives of the potential usefulness of the eCDSS (pre-intervention) and their experiences and their views regarding its impact on clinicians and patients (post-intervention). The systematic review showed that people with SMI had low reported rates of AF. AF patients with SMI were less likely to receive OAC than the general population. When receiving warfarin, people with SMI, particularly bipolar disorder, experienced poor anticoagulation control compared to the general population. Meta-analysis showed that SMI was not significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke or major bleeding when adjusting for underlying risk factors. The main findings of the first observational study were that among AF patients having a high stroke risk, those with co-morbid SMI were less likely than non-SMI to be prescribed any OAC, particularly warfarin. After 2019, there was no significant difference between the two groups. In the second observational study, patients with AF and co-morbid SMI were less likely to be prescribed any OAC compared to those with dementia, substance use disorders, or common mental disorders, adjusting for age, sex, stroke, and bleeding risk scores. Among AF patients with co-morbid SMI, warfarin was less likely to be prescribed to those having alcohol or substance dependency, serious self-injury, hallucinations or delusions, and activities of daily living impairment. In the intervention, clinicians were asked to confirm the presence of AF, clinically assess stroke and bleeding risks, record risk scores in clinical notes, and refer patients at high risk of stroke to OAC clinics. Clinicians reported many potential benefits for the eCDSS, including improving clinical effectiveness, better identification of patients at risk, safer and more comprehensive care, consistency in decision making and saving time. Identified potential risks included rigidity in decision-making, overreliance, reduced critical thinking, false positive recommendations, annoyance, and increased workload. This study presents a unique opportunity to quantify AF patients with mental illness who are at high risk of severe outcomes using electronic health records. This has the potential to improve health outcomes and, therefore patients' quality of life.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, stroke, mental health conditions, electronic clinical decision support systems

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Authors: Muhammad Zia Ullah Baig, Atiq Uz Zama

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The motivation of the project is to facilitate the governance body, as well as the common man in his/her daily life consuming product rates, to easily monitor the expense, to control the budget with the help of single SMS (message), e-mail facility, and to manage governance body by task management system. The system will also be capable of finding irregularities being done by the concerned department in mitigating the complaints generated by the customer and also provide a solution to overcome problems. We are building a system that easily controls the price control system of any country, we will feeling proud to give this system free of cost to Indian Government also. The system is able to easily manage and control the price control department of government all over the country. Price control department run in different cities under City District Government, so the system easily run in different cities with different SMS Code and decentralize Database ensure the non-functional requirement of system (scalability, reliability, availability, security, safety). The customer request for the government official price list with respect to his/her city SMS code (price list of all city available on website or application), the server will forward the price list through a SMS, if the product is not available according to the price list the customer generate a complaint through an SMS or using website/smartphone application, complaint is registered in complaint database and forward to inspection department when the complaint is entertained, the inspection department will forward a message about the complaint to customer. Inspection department physically checks the seller who does not follow the price list, but the major issue of the system is corruption, may be inspection officer will take a bribe and resolve the complaint (complaint is fake) in that case the customer will not use the system. The major issue of the system is to distinguish the fake and real complain and fight for corruption in the department. To counter the corruption, our strategy is to rank the complain if the same type of complaint is generated the complaint is in high rank and the higher authority will also notify about that complain, now the higher authority of department have reviewed the complaint and its history, the officer who resolve that complaint in past and the action against the complaint, these data will help in decision-making process, if the complaint was resolved because the officer takes bribe, the higher authority will take action against that officer. When the price of any good is decided the market/former representative is also there, with the mutual understanding of both party the price is decided, the system facilitate the decision-making process. The system shows the price history of any goods, inflation rate, available supply, demand, and the gap between supply and demand, these data will help to allot for the decision-making process.

Keywords: price control, goods, government, inspection, department, customer, employees

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Authors: Keyvan Molanorouzi, Selina Khoo, Tony Morris

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In recent years, there has been a decline in physical activity among adults. Motivation has been shown to be a crucial factor in maintaining physical activity. The purpose of this study was to whether PA motives measured by the Physical Activity and Leisure Motivation Scale PALMS predicted actual amount of PA at a later time to provide evidence for the construct validity of the PALMS. A quantitative, cross-sectional descriptive research design was employed. The Demographic Form, PALMS, and International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short form (IPAQ-S) questionnaires were used to assess motives and amount for physical activity in adults on two occasions. A sample of 640 (489 male, 151 female) undergraduate students aged 18 to 25 years (mean ±SD; 22.30±8.13 years) took part in the study. Male participants were divided into three types of activities, namely exercise, racquet sport, and team sports and female participants only took part in one type of activity, namely team sports. After 14 weeks, all 640 undergraduate students who had filled in the initial questionnaire (Occasion 1) received the questionnaire via email (Occasion 2). Of the 640 students, 493 (77%; 378 males, 115 females) emailed back the completed questionnaire. The results showed that not only were pertinent sub-scales of PALMS positively related to amount of physical activity, but separate regression analyses showed the positive predictive effect of PALMS motives for amount of physical activity for each type of physical activity among participants. This study supported the construct validity of the PALMS by showing that the motives measured by PALMS did predict amount of PA. This information can be obtained to match people with specific sport or activity which in turn could potentially promote longer adherence to the specific activity.Methods: A quantitative, cross-sectional descriptive research design was employed. The Demographic Form, PALMS, and International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short form (IPAQ-S) questionnaires were used to assess motives and amount for physical activity in adults on two occasions. A sample of 640 (489 male, 151 female) undergraduate students aged 18 to 25 years (mean ±SD; 22.30±8.13 years) took part in the study. Male participants were divided into three types of activities, namely exercise, racquet sport, and team sports and female participants only took part in one type of activity, namely team sports. After 14 weeks, all 640 undergraduate students who had filled in the initial questionnaire (Occasion 1) received the questionnaire via email (Occasion 2). Of the 640 students, 493 (77%; 378 males, 115 females) emailed back the completed questionnaire. Results: The results showed that not only were pertinent sub-scales of PALMS positively related to amount of physical activity, but separate regression analyses showed the positive predictive effect of PALMS motives for amount of physical activity for each type of physical activity among participants. This study supported the construct validity of the PALMS by showing that the motives measured by PALMS did predict amount of PA. Conclusion: This information can be obtained to match people with specific sport or activity which in turn could potentially promote longer adherence to the specific activity.

Keywords: physical activity, motivation, level of physical activity, type of physical activity

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Authors: C. Mazziotti Gomez de Teran, D. Fiore, B. Cola, A. Fardelli

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The present paper summarizes the analysis of the request for consultation of information and data on industrial emissions made publicly available on the web site of the Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea on integrated pollution prevention and control from large industrial installations, the so called “AIA Portal”. However, since also local Competent Authorities have been organizing their own web sites on IPPC permits releasing procedures for public consultation purposes, as a result, a huge amount of information on national industrial plants is already available on internet, although it is usually proposed as textual documentation or images. Thus, it is not possible to access all the relevant information through interoperability systems and also to retrieval relevant information for decision making purposes as well as rising of awareness on environmental issue. Moreover, since in Italy the number of institutional and private subjects involved in the management of the public information on industrial emissions is substantial, the access to the information is provided on internet web sites according to different criteria; thus, at present it is not structurally homogeneous and comparable. To overcome the mentioned difficulties in the case of the Coordinating Committee for the implementation of the Agreement for the industrial area in Taranto and Statte, operating before the IPPC permit granting procedures of the relevant installation located in the area, a big effort was devoted to elaborate and to validate data and information on characterization of soil, ground water aquifer and coastal sea at disposal of different subjects to derive a global perspective for decision making purposes. Thus, the present paper also focuses on main outcomes matured during such experience.

Keywords: public information, emissions into atmosphere, IPPC permits, territorial information systems

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Authors: Antonella Falanga, Armando Cartenì

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Today, an unprecedented amount of data coming from several sources, including mobile devices, sensors, tracking systems, and online platforms, characterizes our lives. The term “big data” not only refers to the quantity of data but also to the variety and speed of data generation. These data hold valuable insights that, when extracted and analyzed, facilitate informed decision-making. The 4Vs of big data - velocity, volume, variety, and value - highlight essential aspects, showcasing the rapid generation, vast quantities, diverse sources, and potential value addition of these kinds of data. This surge of information has revolutionized many sectors, such as business for improving decision-making processes, healthcare for clinical record analysis and medical research, education for enhancing teaching methodologies, agriculture for optimizing crop management, finance for risk assessment and fraud detection, media and entertainment for personalized content recommendations, emergency for a real-time response during crisis/events, and also mobility for the urban planning and for the design/management of public and private transport services. Big data's pervasive impact enhances societal aspects, elevating the quality of life, service efficiency, and problem-solving capacities. However, during this transformative era, new challenges arise, including data quality, privacy, data security, cybersecurity, interoperability, the need for advanced infrastructures, and staff training. Within the transportation sector (the one investigated in this research), applications span planning, designing, and managing systems and mobility services. Among the most common big data applications within the transport sector are, for example, real-time traffic monitoring, bus/freight vehicle route optimization, vehicle maintenance, road safety and all the autonomous and connected vehicles applications. Benefits include a reduction in travel times, road accidents and pollutant emissions. Within these issues, the proper transport demand estimation is crucial for sustainable transportation planning. Evaluating the impact of sustainable mobility policies starts with a quantitative analysis of travel demand. Achieving transportation decarbonization goals hinges on precise estimations of demand for individual transport modes. Emerging technologies, offering substantial big data at lower costs than traditional methods, play a pivotal role in this context. Starting from these considerations, this study explores the usefulness impact of big data within transport demand estimation. This research focuses on leveraging (big) data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic to estimate the evolution of the mobility demand in Italy. Estimation results reveal in the post-COVID-19 era, more than 96 million national daily trips, about 2.6 trips per capita, with a mobile population of more than 37.6 million Italian travelers per day. Overall, this research allows us to conclude that big data better enhances rational decision-making for mobility demand estimation, which is imperative for adeptly planning and allocating investments in transportation infrastructures and services.

Keywords: big data, cloud computing, decision-making, mobility demand, transportation

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Authors: Izabela Kapsa

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Civic participation is an important aspect of democracy. The contemporary model of democracy is based on citizens' participation in political decision-making (deliberative democracy, participatory democracy). This participation takes many forms of activities like display of slogans and symbols, voting, social consultations, political demonstrations, membership in political parties or organizing civil disobedience. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe after 1989 are characterized by great social, economic and political diversity. Civil society is also part of the process of democratization. Civil society, funded by the rule of law, civil rights, such as freedom of speech and association and private ownership, was to play a central role in the development of liberal democracy. Among the many interpretations of concepts, defining the concept of contemporary democracy, one can assume that the terms civil society and democracy, although different in meaning, nowadays overlap. In the post-communist countries, the process of shaping and maturing societies took place in the context of a struggle with a state governed by undemocratic power. State fraud or repudiation of the institution is a representative state, which in the past was the only way to manifest and defend its identity, but after the breakthrough became one of the main obstacles to the development of civil society. In Central and Eastern Europe, there are many obstacles to the development of civil society, for example, the elimination of economic poverty, the implementation of educational campaigns, consciousness-related obstacles, the formation of social capital and the deficit of social activity. Obviously, civil society does not only entail an electoral turnout but a broader participation in the decision-making process, which is impossible without direct and participative democratic institutions. This article considers such broad forms of civic participation and their characteristics in Central and Eastern Europe. The paper is attempts to analyze the functioning of electronic forms of civic participation in Central and Eastern European states. This is not accompanied by a referendum or a referendum initiative, and other forms of political participation, such as public consultations, participative budgets, or e-Government. However, this paper will broadly present electronic administration tools, the application of which results from both legal regulations and increasingly common practice in state and city management. In the comparative analysis, the experiences of post-communist bloc countries will be summed up to indicate the challenges and possible goals for further development of this form of citizen participation in the political process. The author argues that for to function efficiently and effectively, states need to involve their citizens in the political decision-making process, especially with the use of electronic tools.

Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, e-participation, e-government, post-communism

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Authors: Esmael Makarian, Ayub Elyasi, Fatemeh Saberi, Olusegun Stanley Tomomewo

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Rock mechanical investigation is one of the most crucial activities in underground operations, especially in surveys related to hydrocarbon exploration and production, geothermal reservoirs, energy storage, mining, and geotechnics. There is a wide range of traditional methods for driving, collecting, and analyzing rock mechanics data. However, these approaches may not be suitable or work perfectly in some situations, such as fractured zones. Cutting-edge technologies have been provided to solve and optimize the mentioned issues. Internet of Things (IoT), Edge, and Cloud Computing technologies (ECt & CCt, respectively) are among the most widely used and new artificial intelligence methods employed for geomechanical studies. IoT devices act as sensors and cameras for real-time monitoring and mechanical-geological data collection of rocks, such as temperature, movement, pressure, or stress levels. Structural integrity, especially for cap rocks within hydrocarbon systems, and rock mass behavior assessment, to further activities such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and underground gas storage (UGS), or to improve safety risk management (SRM) and potential hazards identification (P.H.I), are other benefits from IoT technologies. EC techniques can process, aggregate, and analyze data immediately collected by IoT on a real-time scale, providing detailed insights into the behavior of rocks in various situations (e.g., stress, temperature, and pressure), establishing patterns quickly, and detecting trends. Therefore, this state-of-the-art and useful technology can adopt autonomous systems in rock mechanical surveys, such as drilling and production (in hydrocarbon wells) or excavation (in mining and geotechnics industries). Besides, ECt allows all rock-related operations to be controlled remotely and enables operators to apply changes or make adjustments. It must be mentioned that this feature is very important in environmental goals. More often than not, rock mechanical studies consist of different data, such as laboratory tests, field operations, and indirect information like seismic or well-logging data. CCt provides a useful platform for storing and managing a great deal of volume and different information, which can be very useful in fractured zones. Additionally, CCt supplies powerful tools for predicting, modeling, and simulating rock mechanical information, especially in fractured zones within vast areas. Also, it is a suitable source for sharing extensive information on rock mechanics, such as the direction and size of fractures in a large oil field or mine. The comprehensive review findings demonstrate that digital transformation through integrated IoT, Edge, and Cloud solutions is revolutionizing traditional rock mechanical investigation. These advanced technologies have empowered real-time monitoring, predictive analysis, and data-driven decision-making, culminating in noteworthy enhancements in safety, efficiency, and sustainability. Therefore, by employing IoT, CCt, and ECt, underground operations have experienced a significant boost, allowing for timely and informed actions using real-time data insights. The successful implementation of IoT, CCt, and ECt has led to optimized and safer operations, optimized processes, and environmentally conscious approaches in underground geological endeavors.

Keywords: rock mechanical studies, internet of things, edge computing, cloud computing, underground surveys, geological operations

Procedia PDF Downloads 63