Search results for: logistic regression models

Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

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This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

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Authors: Wondmnew Derebe

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Increased adoption of modern beehives improves the livelihood of smallholder farmers whose income largely depends on mixed crop-livestock farming. Improved beehives have been disseminated to farmers in many parts of Ethiopia. However, its impact on income is less investigated. Thus, this study estimates how adopting improved beehives impacts rural households' income. Survey data were collected from 350 randomly selected households' and analyzed using an endogenous switching regression model. The result revealed that the adoption of improved beehives is associated with a higher annual income. On average, improved beehive adopters earned about 6,077 (ETB) more money than their counterparts. However, the impact of adoption would have been larger for actual non-adopters, as reflected in the negative transitional heterogeneity effect of 1792 (ETB). The result also indicated that the decision to adopt or not to adopt improved beehives was subjected to individual self-selection. Improved beehive adoption can increase farmers' income and can be used as an alternative poverty reduction strategy.

Keywords: impact, adoption, endogenous switching regression, income, improved

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Authors: Ceren Kaya, Okan Erkaymaz, Orhan Ayar, Mahmut Özer

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Diabetes Mellitus (Diabetes) is a disease based on insulin hormone disorders and causes high blood glucose. Clinical findings determine that diabetes can be diagnosed by electrophysiological signals obtained from the vital organs. 'Diabetic Retinopathy' is one of the most common eye diseases resulting on diabetes and it is the leading cause of vision loss due to structural alteration of the retinal layer vessels. In this study, features of horizontal and vertical Video-Oculography (VOG) signals have been used to classify non-proliferative and proliferative diabetic retinopathy disease. Twenty-five features are acquired by using discrete wavelet transform with VOG signals which are taken from 21 subjects. Two models, based on multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function, are recommended in the diagnosis of Diabetic Retinopathy. The proposed models also can detect level of the disease. We show comparative classification performance of the proposed models. Our results show that proposed the RBF model (100%) results in better classification performance than the MLP model (94%).

Keywords: diabetic retinopathy, discrete wavelet transform, multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function, video-oculography (VOG)

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: A.D. Susanti, W. B. Sediawan, S.K. Wirawan, Budhijanto, Ritmaleni

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Oryzanol content in rice bran oil (RBO) naturally has high antioxidant activity. Its reviewed has several health properties and high interested in pharmacy, cosmetics, and nutrition’s. Because of the low concentration of oryzanol in crude RBO (0.9-2.9%) then its need to be further processed for practical usage, such as via adsorption process. In this study, investigation and adjustment of adsorption equilibrium models were conducted through the kinetic data approachments. Mathematical modeling on kinetics of batch adsorption of oryzanol separation from RBO has been set-up and then applied for equilibrium results. The size of adsorbent particles used in this case are usually relatively small then the concentration in the adsorbent is assumed to be not different. Hence, the adsorption rate is controlled by the rate of oryzanol mass transfer from the bulk fluid of RBO to the surface of silica gel. In this approachments, the rate of mass transfer is assumed to be proportional to the concentration deviation from the equilibrium state. The equilibrium models applied were Langmuir, coefficient distribution, and Freundlich with the values of the parameters obtained from equilibrium results. It turned out that the models set-up can quantitatively describe the experimental kinetics data and the adjustment of the values of equilibrium isotherm parameters significantly improves the accuracy of the model. And then the value of mass transfer coefficient per unit adsorbent mass (kca) is obtained by curve fitting.

Keywords: adsorption equilibrium, adsorption kinetics, oryzanol, rice bran oil

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Authors: Desmond Adair, Kairat Ismailov, Martin Jaeger

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Modelling of Timoshenko beams on elastic foundations has been widely used in the analysis of buildings, geotechnical problems, and, railway and aerospace structures. For the elastic foundation, the most widely used models are one-parameter mechanical models or two-parameter models to include continuity and cohesion of typical foundations, with the two-parameter usually considered the better of the two. Knowledge of free vibration characteristics of beams on an elastic foundation is considered necessary for optimal design solutions in many engineering applications, and in this work, the efficient and accurate variational iteration method is developed and used to calculate natural frequencies of a Timoshenko beam on a two-parameter foundation. The variational iteration method is a technique capable of dealing with some linear and non-linear problems in an easy and efficient way. The calculations are compared with those using a finite-element method and other analytical solutions, and it is shown that the results are accurate and are obtained efficiently. It is found that the effect of the presence of the two-parameter foundation is to increase the beam’s natural frequencies and this is thought to be because of the shear-layer stiffness, which has an effect on the elastic stiffness. By setting the two-parameter model’s stiffness parameter to zero, it is possible to obtain a one-parameter foundation model, and so, comparison between the two foundation models is also made.

Keywords: Timoshenko beam, variational iteration method, two-parameter elastic foundation model

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Authors: Ming Su, Ziqiang Mu

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This paper proposes a synthesis method for nonuniform linear antenna arrays that combine Gaussian process regression (GPR) and genetic algorithm (GA). In this method, the GPR model can be used to calculate the array radiation pattern in the presence of mutual coupling effects, and then the GA is used to optimize the excitations and locations of the elements so as to generate the desired radiation pattern. In this paper, taking a 9-element nonuniform linear array as an example and the desired radiation pattern corresponding to a Chebyshev distribution as the optimization objective, optimize the excitations and locations of the elements. Finally, the optimization results are verified by electromagnetic simulation software CST, which shows that the method is effective.

Keywords: nonuniform linear antenna arrays, GPR, GA, mutual coupling effects, active element pattern

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Authors: Jiaqi Huang, Yuheng Wang

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Premises selection, the task of selecting a set of axioms for proving a given conjecture, is a major bottleneck in automated theorem proving. An array of deep-learning-based methods has been established for premises selection, but a perfect performance remains challenging. Our study examines the inaccuracy of deep neural networks in premises selection. Through training network models using encoded conjecture and axiom pairs from the Mizar Mathematical Library, two potential biases are found: the network models classify more premises as necessary than unnecessary, referred to as the ‘positive bias’, and the network models perform better in proving conjectures that paired with more axioms, referred to as ‘length bias’. The ‘positive bias’ and ‘length bias’ discovered could inform the limitation of existing deep neural networks.

Keywords: automated theorem proving, premises selection, deep learning, interpreting deep learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Henok Yebyo Henok, Araya Abrha Araya, Alemayehu Bayray Alemayehu, Gelila Goba Gelila

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Background: Every year, an estimated 19–20 million unsafe abortions take place, almost all in developing countries, leading to 68,000 deaths and millions more injured many permanently. Many women throughout the world, experience more than one abortion in their lifetimes. Repeat abortion is an indicator of the larger problem of unintended pregnancy. This study aimed to identify determinants of repeat abortion in Tigray Region, Ethiopia. Methods: Unmatched case-control study was conducted in hospitals in Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia, from November 2014 to June 2015. The sample included 105 cases and 204 controls, recruited from among women seeking abortion care at public hospitals. Clients having two or more abortions (“repeat abortion”) were taken as cases, and those who had a total of one abortion were taken as controls (“single abortion”). Cases were selected consecutive based on proportional to size allocation while systematic sampling was employed for controls. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Binary and multiple variable logistic regression analyses were calculated with 95% CI. Results: Mean age of cases was 24 years (±6.85) and 22 years (±6.25) for controls. 79.0% of cases had their sexual debut in less than 18 years of age compared to 57% of controls. 42.2% of controls and 23.8% of cases cited rape as the reason for having an abortion. Study participants who did not understand their fertility cycle and when they were most likely to conceive after menstruation (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-3.7), having a previous abortion using medication(AOR=3.3, CI: 1.83, 6.11), having multiple sexual partners in the preceding 12 months (AOR=4.4, CI: 2.39,8.45), perceiving that the abortion procedure is not painful (AOR=2.3, CI: 1.31,4.26), initiating sexual intercourse before the age of 18 years (AOR=2.7, CI: 1.49, 5.23) and disclosure to a third-party about terminating the pregnancy (AOR=2.1, CI: 1.2,3.83) were independent predictors of repeat abortion. Conclusion: This study identified several factors correlated with women having repeat abortions. It may be helpful for the Government of Ethiopia to encourage women to delay sexual debut and decrease their number of sexual partners, including by promoting discussion within families about sexuality, to decrease the occurrence of repeated abortion.

Keywords: abortion, Ethiopia, repeated abortion, single abortion

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Authors: Mohammad Z. Ansari, Lisa Brodie, Marilyn Goh

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Change facilitators are individuals who utilize change philosophy to make a positive change to organizations. The application of change facilitators can be seen in various change models; Lewin, Lippitt, etc. The facilitators within numerous change models are considered as internal/external consultants. Whilst most of the scholarly paper considers change facilitation as a consensus attempt to improve organization, there is a lack of a framework that develops both the organization and the change facilitator creating a self-sustaining change environment. This research paper introduces the development of the framework for change Leaders, Planners, and Executers (LPE), aiming at various organizational levels (Process, Departmental, and Organisational). The LPE framework is derived by exploring interrelated characteristics between facilitator(s) and the organization through qualitative research for understanding change management techniques and facilitator(s) behavioral aspect from existing Change Management models and Organisation behavior works of literature. The introduced framework assists in highlighting and identify the most appropriate change team to successfully deliver the change initiative within any organization (s).

Keywords: change initiative, LPE framework, change facilitator(s), sustainable change

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Authors: Arjun G. Koppad

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The study was conducted in Joida taluk of Uttara Kannada district, Karnataka, India, to assess the land use land cover (LULC) and forest aboveground biomass using L band SAR data. The study area covered has dense, moderately dense, and sparse forests. The sampled area was 0.01 percent of the forest area with 30 sampling plots which were selected randomly. The point center quadrate (PCQ) method was used to select the tree and collected the tree growth parameters viz., tree height, diameter at breast height (DBH), and diameter at the tree base. The tree crown density was measured with a densitometer. Each sample plot biomass was estimated using the standard formula. In this study, the LULC classification was done using Freeman-Durden, Yamaghuchi and Pauli polarimetric decompositions. It was observed that the Freeman-Durden decomposition showed better LULC classification with an accuracy of 88 percent. An attempt was made to estimate the aboveground biomass using SAR backscatter. The ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 L-band data (HH, HV, VV &VH) fully polarimetric quad-pol SAR data was used. SAR backscatter-based regression model was implemented to retrieve forest aboveground biomass of the study area. Cross-polarization (HV) has shown a good correlation with forest above-ground biomass. The Multi Linear Regression analysis was done to estimate aboveground biomass of the natural forest areas of the Joida taluk. The different polarizations (HH &HV, VV &HH, HV & VH, VV&VH) combination of HH and HV polarization shows a good correlation with field and predicted biomass. The RMSE and value for HH & HV and HH & VV were 78 t/ha and 0.861, 81 t/ha and 0.853, respectively. Hence the model can be recommended for estimating AGB for the dense, moderately dense, and sparse forest.

Keywords: forest, biomass, LULC, back scatter, SAR, regression

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Authors: J. Jasmee, I. Roslina, A. Mohammed Yaziz & A.H Juazer Rizal

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The need of an effective building information collection method is vital to support a diversity of land development activities. At present, advances in remote sensing such as airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) is an established technology for building information collection, location, and elevation of the reflecting laser points towards the construction of 3D building models. In this study, LiDAR datasets and terrestrial photographic images of buildings towards the construction of 3D building models is explored. It is found that, the quantitative accuracy of the constructed 3D building model, namely in the horizontal and vertical components were ± 0.31m (RMSEx,y) and ± 0.145m (RMSEz) respectively. The accuracies were computed based on sixty nine (69) horizontal and twenty (20) vertical surveyed points. As for the qualitative assessment, it is shown that the appearance of the 3D building model is adequate to support the requirements of LOD3 presentation based on the OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) standard CityGML.

Keywords: LiDAR datasets, DSM, DTM, 3D building models

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Authors: Dinka Fikadu, Mulugeta Shegaze

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Background: Currently in health facility, provider-initiated human immunodeficiency virus testing is the key entry point to prevention, care, treatment and support services, but most people remains unaware of their HIV status due to various reasons. In many high-prevalence countries, fewer than one in ten people with HIV are aware of their HIV status. HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, “acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, "has become one of the world’s most serious health and development challenges. Reaching individuals with HIV who do not know their serostatus is a global public health priority. Objective: To assess utilization of provider initiated HIV testing and counseling and associated factors among adult outpatient department patients. Methods: Health facility based cross sectional study was conducted among 392 adult outpatient department patients in Wonchi woreda from February 24 to March 24 /2013. The study participant was recruited patients from all adult outpatient department patients of all four public health facilities of wonchi woreda using systematic sampling. A structured interviewer administered questionnaire was used to elicit all important variables from the study participants and multiple logistic regression analysis was used. Result: A total of 371 adult outpatient department patients aged between 15 to 64 years were actively participated in the study and 291(78.4%) of them utilized provider initiated HIV testing and counseling and 80(21.6%) of them refused. Knowledge on HIV is low in the study population; majority of the participants didn’t have comprehensive knowledge (64.7%) and (35.3%) fail to reject misconception about means of HIV transmission and prevention. Utilization of provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling were associated with divorced/widowed marital status[AOR (95%CI) = 0.32(0.15, 0.69)], being male sex [AOR (95%CI) =1.81(1.01, 3.24)], having comprehensive knowledge on HIV [AOR (95%CI) =0.408(0.220,0.759)],having awareness about provider initiated HIV testing and counseling [AOR(95%CI) =2.89(1.48,5.66)] and receiving test on HIV before[AOR (95%CI)=4.15(2.30, 7.47)]. Conclusion: Utilization of provider initiated HIV testing and counseling among adult outpatient departments in wonchi woreda public health facility was [(78.4%)].Strengthening health information through mass media and peer education on HIV to address barrier to testing in the community such as low awareness on PITC, to increase up take of PITC among adult OPD patients.

Keywords: utilization, human immune deficiency, testing, provider, initiate

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Authors: Mladen Dragičević, Mirjana Pejić Bach, Vanja Šimičević

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The purpose of this paper is to develop models that would enable predicting student success. These models could improve allocation of students among colleges and optimize the newly introduced model of government subsidies for higher education. For the purpose of collecting data, an anonymous survey was carried out in the last year of undergraduate degree student population using random sampling method. Decision trees were created of which two have been chosen that were most successful in predicting student success based on two criteria: Grade Point Average (GPA) and time that a student needs to finish the undergraduate program (time-to-degree). Decision trees have been shown as a good method of classification student success and they could be even more improved by increasing survey sample and developing specialized decision trees for each type of college. These types of methods have a big potential for use in decision support systems.

Keywords: data mining, knowledge discovery in databases, prediction models, student success

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Authors: Othmane Touri, Sanaa El Filali, El Habib Benlahmar

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Natural Language Processing (NLP) has gained significant attention lately. It has proved its ability to analyze and extract insights from unstructured text data in various languages. It is found that one of the most popular NLP applications is sentiment analysis which aims to identify the sentiment expressed in a piece of text, such as positive, negative, or neutral, in multiple languages. While there are several multilingual NLP models available for sentiment analysis, there is a need to investigate their effectiveness in different contexts and applications. In this study, we aim to investigate the effectiveness of different multilingual NLP models for sentiment analysis on a dataset of online product reviews in multiple languages. The performance of several NLP models, including Google Cloud Natural Language API, Microsoft Azure Cognitive Services, Amazon Comprehend, Stanford CoreNLP, spaCy, and Hugging Face Transformers are being compared. The models based on several metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score, are being evaluated and compared to their performance across different categories of product reviews. In order to run the study, preprocessing of the dataset has been performed by cleaning and tokenizing the text data in multiple languages. Then training and testing each model has been applied using a cross-validation approach where randomly dividing the dataset into training and testing sets and repeating the process multiple times has been used. A grid search approach to optimize the hyperparameters of each model and select the best-performing model for each category of product reviews and language has been applied. The findings of this study provide insights into the effectiveness of different multilingual NLP models for Multilingual Sentiment Analysis and their suitability for different languages and applications. The strengths and limitations of each model were identified, and recommendations for selecting the most performant model based on the specific requirements of a project were provided. This study contributes to the advancement of research methods in multilingual NLP and provides a practical guide for researchers and practitioners in the field.

Keywords: NLP, multilingual, sentiment analysis, texts

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Authors: Saima Shafiq, Najma Iqbal Malik

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This study was aimed to explore the relationship of perceived stigma, perception of burden and psychological distress among parents of intellectually disabled children. The study also aimed to explore the moderating role of perceived social support on all the variables of the study. The sample of the study comprised of (N = 250) parents of intellectually disabled children. The present study utilized the co-relational research design. It consists of two phases. Phase-I consisted of two steps which contained the translation of two scales that were used in the present study and tried out on the sample of parents (N = 70). The Affiliated Stigma Scale and Care Giver Burden Inventory were translated into Urdu for the present study. Phase-1 revealed that translated scaled entailed satisfactory psychometric properties. Phase -II of the study was carried out in order to test the hypothesis. Correlation, linear regression analysis, and t-test were computed for hypothesis testing. Hierarchical regression analysis was applied to study the moderating effect of perceived social support. Findings revealed that there was a positive relationship between perceived stigma and psychological distress, perception of burden and psychological distress. Linear regression analysis showed that perceived stigma and perception of burden were positive predictors of psychological distress. The study did not show the moderating role of perceived social support among variables of the present study. The major limitation of the study is the sample size and the major implication is awareness regarding problems of parents of intellectually disabled children.

Keywords: perceived stigma, perception of burden, psychological distress, perceived social support

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Authors: Chi-Yueh Hsu, Hsuan-Liang Hsu, Hsiu-Hui Chiang

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This study is to explore the relationship between the conspicuous consumption, leisure involvement and physical and mental health, and to understand the prediction of conspicuous consumption and leisure involvement to physical and mental health. The data was collected and analysed by purposive sampling, and the research objects were the dog walkers in Taiwan area. A total of 300 questionnaires were issued and after shaving the invalid questionnaire, a total of 246 valid samples were collected, and the effective rate was 82%.. The data were analyzed by correlation analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis. The results showed that there was a significant correlation between conspicuous consumption and leisure involvement, and the conspicuous consumption and leisure involvement of dog walkers have a significant impact on physical and mental health, especially in self-expression, attractiveness and centrality of leisure involvement have a significant impact on physical and mental health.

Keywords: walking dog, attractiveness, self-expression, multiple stepwise regression analysis

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Authors: Malo Pocheau-Lesteven, Olivier Le Maître

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Engineering and optimisation of complex systems is often achieved through multi-disciplinary analysis of the system, where each subsystem is modeled and interacts with other subsystems to model the complete system. The coherence of the output of the different sub-systems is achieved through the use of compatibility constraints, which enforce the coupling between the different subsystems. Due to the complexity of some sub-systems and the computational cost of evaluating their respective models, it is often necessary to build surrogate models of these subsystems to allow repeated evaluation these subsystems at a relatively low computational cost. In this paper, gaussian processes are used, as their probabilistic nature is leveraged to evaluate the likelihood of satisfying the compatibility constraints. This paper presents infilling strategies to build accurate surrogate models of the subsystems in areas where they are likely to meet the compatibility constraint. It is shown that these infilling strategies can reduce the computational cost of building surrogate models for a given level of accuracy. An application of these methods to velocity prediction programs used in offshore racing naval architecture further demonstrates these method's applicability in a real engineering context. Also, some examples of the application of uncertainty quantification to field of naval architecture are presented.

Keywords: infilling strategy, gaussian process, multi disciplinary analysis, velocity prediction program

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Authors: Fatemeh Noori

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The fashion industry is a dynamic and ever-evolving realm that continuously shapes societal perceptions of beauty and style. Within this industry, fashion modeling plays a crucial role, acting as the visual representation of brands and designers. However, behind the glamorous façade lies a complex web of legal considerations that govern the rights, responsibilities, and ethical practices within the field. This paper aims to explore the legal landscape surrounding fashion modeling, shedding light on key issues such as contract law, intellectual property, labor rights, and the increasing importance of ethical considerations in the industry. Fashion modeling involves the collaboration of various stakeholders, including models, designers, agencies, and photographers. To ensure a fair and transparent working environment, it is imperative to establish a comprehensive legal framework that addresses the rights and obligations of each party involved. One of the primary legal considerations in fashion modeling is the contractual relationship between models and agencies. Contracts define the terms of engagement, including payment, working conditions, and the scope of services. This section will delve into the essential elements of modeling contracts, the negotiation process, and the importance of clarity to avoid disputes. Models are not just individuals showcasing clothing; they are integral to the creation and dissemination of artistic and commercial content. Intellectual property rights, including image rights and the use of a model's likeness, are critical aspects of the legal landscape. This section will explore the protection of models' image rights, the use of their likeness in advertising, and the potential for unauthorized use. Models, like any other professionals, are entitled to fair and ethical treatment. This section will address issues such as working conditions, hours, and the responsibility of agencies and designers to prioritize the well-being of models. Additionally, it will explore the global movement toward inclusivity, diversity, and the promotion of positive body image within the industry. The fashion industry has faced scrutiny for perpetuating harmful standards of beauty and fostering a culture of exploitation. This section will discuss the ethical responsibilities of all stakeholders, including the promotion of diversity, the prevention of exploitation, and the role of models as influencers for positive change. In conclusion, the legal considerations in fashion modeling are multifaceted, requiring a comprehensive approach to protect the rights of models and ensure ethical practices within the industry. By understanding and addressing these legal aspects, the fashion industry can create a more transparent, fair, and inclusive environment for all stakeholders involved in the art of modeling.

Keywords: fashion modeling contracts, image rights in modeling, labor rights for models, ethical practices in fashion, diversity and inclusivity in modeling

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Authors: Nepton Kiani

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Dental decay is one of the most common chronic diseases worldwide and imposes significant costs annually on people and healthcare systems. Addressing this issue is among the important programs of the World Health Organization in the field of oral and dental disease prevention and health promotion. In this context, oral and dental health in vulnerable groups, especially pregnant women, is of greater importance due to the health maintenance of the mother and fetus. The aim of this study is to investigate the DMFT index and various factors affecting it in order to identify different factors influencing the process of dental decay and to take an effective step in reducing the progression of this disease, control, and prevention. In this cross-sectional descriptive study, 120 pregnant women attending Nepton Policlinica clinic in Malaga, Spain, were evaluated for the DMFT index and oral and dental hygiene. In this regard, interviews, precise observations, and data collection were used. Subsequently, data analysis was performed using SPSS software and employing correlation tests, Kruskal-Wallis, and Mann-Whitney tests. The DMFT index for pregnant women in three age groups 22-26, 27- 31, and 32-36 years was respectively 2.8, 4.5, and 5.6. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that demographic variables (age, education, job, economic status) and the frequency of brushing and flossing lead to preventive behavior up to 49.58 percent (P<0.05). Generally, the results indicated that oral and dental care during pregnancy is poor. Only a small number of pregnant women regularly used toothbrush and dental floss or visited the dentist regularly. On the other hand, poor performance in adopting oral and dental care was more observed in pregnant women with lower economic and educational status. The present study showed that raising the level of awareness and education on oral and dental health in pregnant women is essential. In this field, it is necessary to focus on conducting educational-care courses at the level of healthcare centers for midwives, healthcare personnel, and at the community level for families, to prevent and perform dental treatments before the pregnancy period

Keywords: Malaga, oral and dental health, pregnant women, Spain

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Authors: Manisha Mukherjee, Diptarka Saha

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Reliable forecasts of univariate time series data are often necessary for several contexts. ARIMA models are quite popular among practitioners in this regard. Hence, choosing correct parameter values for ARIMA is a challenging yet imperative task. Thus, a stepwise algorithm is introduced to provide automatic and robust estimates for parameters (p; d; q)(P; D; Q) used in seasonal ARIMA models. This process is focused on improvising the overall quality of the estimates, and it alleviates the problems induced due to the unidimensional nature of the methods that are currently used such as auto.arima. The fast and automated search of parameter space also ensures reliable estimates of the parameters that possess several desirable qualities, consequently, resulting in higher test accuracy especially in the cases of noisy data. After vigorous testing on real as well as simulated data, the algorithm doesn’t only perform better than current state-of-the-art methods, it also completely obviates the need for human intervention due to its automated nature.

Keywords: time series, ARIMA, auto.arima, ARIMA parameters, forecast, R function

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Authors: Cesar Hernández, Diego Giral, Fernando Santa

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The spectral handoff is important in cognitive wireless networks to ensure an adequate quality of service and performance for secondary user communications. This work proposes a benchmarking of performance of the three spectrum handoff models: VIKOR, SAW and MEW. Four evaluation metrics are used. These metrics are, accumulative average of failed handoffs, accumulative average of handoffs performed, accumulative average of transmission bandwidth and, accumulative average of the transmission delay. As a difference with related work, the performance of the three spectrum handoff models was validated with captured data of spectral occupancy in experiments realized at the GSM frequency band (824 MHz-849 MHz). These data represent the actual behavior of the licensed users for this wireless frequency band. The results of the comparative show that VIKOR Algorithm provides 15.8% performance improvement compared to a SAW Algorithm and, 12.1% better than the MEW Algorithm.

Keywords: cognitive radio, decision making, MEW, SAW, spectrum handoff, VIKOR

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Authors: Kemi Olalekan Oduntan

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This paper was carried out in order to empirical, and descriptively analysis how interest rate and foreign exchange rate liberalization influence investment decision in Nigeria. The study spanned through the period of 1985 – 2014, secondary data were restricted to relevant variables such as investment (Proxy by Gross Fixed Capital Formation) saving rate, interest rate and foreign exchange rate. Theories and empirical literature from various scholars were reviews in the paper. Ordinary Least Square regression method was used for the analysis of data collection. The result of the regression was critically interpreted and discussed. It was discovered for empirical finding that tax investment decision in Nigeria is highly at sensitive rate. Hence, all the alternative hypotheses were accepted while the respective null hypotheses were rejected as a result of interest rate and foreign exchange has significant effect on investment in Nigeria. Therefore, impact of interest rate and foreign exchange rate on the state of investment in the economy cannot be over emphasized.

Keywords: interest rate, foreign exchange liberalization, investment decision, economic growth

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Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, prediction modeling, rail track degradation

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Authors: Arturo Galván, Jatziri Y. Moreno-Martínez, Israel Enrique Herrera Díaz, José Ramón Gasca Tirado

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In recent years, one of the methods most used for the construction of tunnels in soft soil is the shield-driven tunneling. The advantage of this construction technique is that it allows excavating the tunnel while at the same time a primary lining is placed, which consists of precast segments. There are joints between segments, also called longitudinal joints, and joints between rings (called as circumferential joints). This is the reason because of this type of constructions cannot be considered as a continuous structure. The effect of these joints influences in the rigidity of the segmental lining and therefore in its structural response. A parametric study was performed to take into account the effect of different parameters in the structural response of typical segmental tunnels built in soft soil by using non-linear numerical models based on Finite Element Method by means of the software package ANSYS v. 11.0. In the first part of this study, two types of numerical models were performed. In the first one, the segments were modeled by using beam elements based on Timoshenko beam theory whilst the segment joints were modeled by using inelastic rotational springs considering the constitutive moment-rotation relation proposed by Gladwell. In this way, the mechanical behavior of longitudinal joints was simulated. On the other hand for simulating the mechanical behavior of circumferential joints elastic springs were considered. As well as, the stability given by the soil was modeled by means of elastic-linear springs. In the second type of models, the segments were modeled by means of three-dimensional solid elements and the joints with contact elements. In these models, the zone of the joints is modeled as a discontinuous (increasing the computational effort) therefore a discrete model is obtained. With these contact elements the mechanical behavior of joints is simulated considering that when the joint is closed, there is transmission of compressive and shear stresses but not of tensile stresses and when the joint is opened, there is no transmission of stresses. This type of models can detect changes in the geometry because of the relative movement of the elements that form the joints. A comparison between the numerical results with two types of models was carried out. In this way, the hypothesis considered in the simplified models were validated. In addition, the numerical models were calibrated with (Lab-based) experimental results obtained from the literature of a typical tunnel built in Europe. In the second part of this work, a parametric study was performed by using the simplified models due to less used computational effort compared to complex models. In the parametric study, the effect of material properties, the geometry of the tunnel, the arrangement of the longitudinal joints and the coupling of the rings were studied. Finally, it was concluded that the mechanical behavior of segment and ring joints and the arrangement of the segment joints affect the global behavior of the lining. As well as, the effect of the coupling between rings modifies the structural capacity of the lining.

Keywords: numerical models, parametric study, segmental tunnels, structural response

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Authors: Xueqing Ivy Chen, Christo De Coning

Abstract:

It is clear from practice that a gap exists between Result-Based Monitoring and Evaluation (RBME) as a discipline, and Knowledge Management (KM) on the other hand. Whereas various government departments have institutionalised these functions, KM and M&E has functioned in isolation from each other in a practical sense in the public sector. It’s therefore necessary to explore the relationship between KM and M&E and the necessity for integration, so that a convergence of these disciplines can be established. An integration of KM and M&E will lead to integration and improvement of evidence-based information and policy decision-making. M&E and KM process models are available but the complementarity between specific process steps of these process models are not exploited. A need exists to clarify the relationships between these functions in order to ensure evidence based information and policy decision-making. This paper will depart from the well-known policy process models, such as the generic model and consider recent on the interface between policy, M&E and KM.

Keywords: result-based monitoring and evaluation, RBME, knowledge management, KM, evident based decision making, public policy, information systems, institutional arrangement

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Authors: Asimina Paparrigopoulou, John Pavlopoulos, Maria Konstantinidou

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Dating papyri accurately is crucial not only to editing their texts but also for our understanding of palaeography and the history of writing, ancient scholarship, material culture, networks in antiquity, etc. Most ancient manuscripts offer little evidence regarding the time of their production, forcing papyrologists to date them on palaeographical grounds, a method often criticized for its subjectivity. By experimenting with data obtained from the Collaborative Database of Dateable Greek Bookhands and the PapPal online collections of objectively dated Greek papyri, this study shows that deep learning dating models, pre-trained on generic images, can achieve accurate chronological estimates for a test subset (67,97% accuracy for book hands and 55,25% for documents). To compare the estimates of these models with those of humans, experts were asked to complete a questionnaire with samples of literary and documentary hands that had to be sorted chronologically by century. The same samples were dated by the models in question. The results are presented and analysed.

Keywords: image classification, papyri images, dating

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Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

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Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control promulgated by Shewhart in the years 30, and on the principles of PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act) developed by Deming and Juran. Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models includes COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them based on points of reflection and analysis done by some authors. Almost all limitations are related to the mechanistic and reductionist approach of the principles over those models are built. As Systems Theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises from as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of an organization, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, maturity model, systems theory, viable system model

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Authors: Bret Brooks

Abstract:

As the international community has focused their attention in recent times on international and transnational terrorism, many nations have ignored their own domestic terrorist groups. Domestic terrorism has significantly evolved over the last 15 years and as such nation states must adequately understand their own individual issues as well as the broader worldwide perspective. Contemporary models show that obtaining peace with domestic groups is not only the end goal, but also very obtainable. By evaluating modern examples and incorporating successful strategies, countries around the world have the ability to bring about a diplomatic resolution to domestic extremism and domestic terrorism.

Keywords: domestic, evolution, peace, terrorism

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Authors: Akiode Ayobami, Akiode Akinsewa, Odeku Mojisola, Salako Busola, Odutolu Omobola, Nuhu Khadija

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Purpose: Evidence exists that family planning use can contribute to reduction in infant and maternal mortality in any country. Despite these benefits, contraceptive use in Nigeria still remains very low, only 10% among married women. Understanding factors that predict contraceptive use is very important in order to improve the situation. In this paper, we analysed data from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) to better understand predictors of contraceptive use in Nigeria. The use of logistics regression and other traditional models in this type of situation is not appropriate as they do not account for social structure influence brought about by the hierarchical nature of the data on response variable. We therefore used multilevel modelling to explore the determinants of contraceptive use in order to account for the significant variation in modern contraceptive use by socio-demographic, and other proximate variables across the different Nigerian states. Method: This data has a two-level hierarchical structure. We considered the data of 26, 403 married women of reproductive age at level 1 and nested them within the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja at level 2. We modelled use of modern contraceptive against demographic variables, being told about FP at health facility, heard of FP on TV, Magazine or radio, husband desire for more children nested within the state. Results: Our results showed that the independent variables in the model were significant predictors of modern contraceptive use. The estimated variance component for the null model, random intercept, and random slope models were significant (p=0.00), indicating that the variation in contraceptive use across the Nigerian states is significant, and needs to be accounted for in order to accurately determine the predictors of contraceptive use, hence the data is best fitted by the multilevel model. Only being told about family planning at the health facility and religion have a significant random effect, implying that their predictability of contraceptive use varies across the states. Conclusion and Recommendation: Results showed that providing FP information at the health facility and religion needs to be considered when programming to improve contraceptive use at the state levels.

Keywords: multilevel modelling, family planning, predictors, Nigeria

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Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

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Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss

Procedia PDF Downloads 389