Search results for: interest rate risk

Authors: Kaisy Xinhong Ye, Su Lin Lim, Jialiang Li, Lei Feng

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background: Multiple healthful dietary patterns have been linked with dementia, but limited studies have looked at the role of diet in cognitive health in Asians whose eating habits are very different from their counterparts in the west. This study aimed to derive a dietary pattern that is associated with the risk of cognitive impairment (CI) in the Singaporean population. Method: The analysis was based on 719 community older adults aged 60 and above. Dietary intake was measured using a validated semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Reduced rank regression (RRR) was used to extract dietary pattern from 45 food groups, specifying sugar, dietary fiber, vitamin A, calcium, and the ratio of polyunsaturated fat to saturated fat intake (P:S ratio) as response variables. The RRR-derived dietary patterns were subsequently investigated using multivariate logistic regression models to look for associations with the risk of CI. Results: A dietary pattern characterized by greater intakes of green leafy vegetables, red-orange vegetables, wholegrains, tofu, nuts, and lower intakes of biscuits, pastries, local sweets, coffee, poultry with skin, sugar added to beverages, malt beverages, roti, butter, and fast food was associated with reduced risk of CI [multivariable-adjusted OR comparing extreme quintiles, 0.29 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.77); P-trend =0.03]. This pattern was positively correlated with P:S ratio, vitamin A, and dietary fiber and negatively correlated with sugar. Conclusion: A dietary pattern providing high P:S ratio, vitamin A and dietary fiber, and a low level of sugar may reduce the risk of cognitive impairment in old age. The findings have significance in guiding local Singaporeans to dementia prevention through food-based dietary approaches.

Keywords: dementia, cognitive impairment, diet, nutrient, elderly

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Authors: Gehan Hussein, Hams Ahmad, Baher Matta, Yasmeen Mansi, Mohamad Fawzi

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Background: Congenital heart disease (CHD) is a common problem worldwide with variable incidence in different countries. The exact etiology is unknown, suggested to be multifactorial. We aimed to study the incidence of various CHD in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) in a tertiary care hospital in Egypt and the possible associations with variable risk factors. Methods: Prospective study was conducted over a period of one year (2013 /2014) at NICU KasrAlAini School of Medicine, Cairo University. Questionnaire about possible maternal and/or paternal risk factors for CHD, clinical examination, bedside echocardiography were done. Cases were classified into groups: group 1 without CHD and group 2 with CHD. Results: from 723 neonates admitted to NICU, 180 cases were proved to have CHD, 58 % of them were males. patent ductus arteriosus(PDA) was the most common CHD (70%), followed by an atrial septal defect (ASD8%), while Fallot tetralogy and single ventricle were the least common (0.45 %) for each. CHD was found in 30 % of consanguineous parents Maternal age ≥ 35 years at the time of conception was associated with increased incidence of PDA (p= 0.45 %). Maternal diabetes and insulin intake were significantly associated with cases of CHD (p=0.02 &0.001 respectively), maternal hypertension and hypothyroidism were both associated with VSD, but the difference did not reach statistical significance (P=0.36 &0.44respectively). Maternal passive smoking was significantly associated with PDA (p=0.03). Conclusion: The most frequent CHD in the studied population was PDA, followed by ASD. Maternal conditions as diabetes was associated with VSD occurrence.

Keywords: NICU, risk factors, congenital heart disease, echocardiography

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Authors: Emily Moskwa, Delene Weber, Jacob Arnold, Guy M. Robinson, Douglas K. Bardsley

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Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire are key contemporary concerns, with a growing literature exploring these issues from a social research perspective. Efforts range from narrowly focused examinations, such as comparing the level of community support for vegetation clearance with that of controlled burning, to broader considerations of what constitutes effective fire management policy and education campaigns. However, little analysis is available that integrates the social component of risk mitigation and the influence of educational materials with the biodiversity conservation strategies so often needed in fire-prone ecosystems found on the periphery of urban areas. Indeed many communities living on the fringe of Australian cities face major issues relating to an increased risk of wildfire events and a decline in local biodiversity. Inadequate policy and planning, and a lack of awareness or information, exacerbate this risk. This has brought forward an emerging governance challenge that requires the mitigation of wildfire risk while simultaneously supporting improved conservation practices in these urban-fringe areas. Focusing on the perceptions and experiences of residents of the Lower Eyre Peninsula in South Australia, this study analyses data collected from a series of semi-structured interviews with landholders (n=20) living in rural and urban-fringe areas surrounding the city of Port Lincoln, a city with a growing population and one that has faced a number of very large fires in recent years. In South Australia, new policies have assigned increased responsibility on individual landholders to manage their land and prepare themselves for a wildfire event, potentially to the detriment of the surrounding native vegetation. Our findings indicate the value of gaining a more nuanced understanding of the perceptions and behaviours of landholders living in areas of high fire risk, who often choose to live there in order to be close to the natural environment. Many interviewees demonstrated a high awareness of wildfire risk as a result of their past experience with fire, and the majority considered themselves to be well-prepared in the event of a future fire. Community interactions and educational programs were found to be effective in raising awareness of risk; however, negative trust relationships with government authorities and low exposure to information concerning biodiversity resulted in an overall misunderstanding of the relationship between risk mitigation and biodiversity protection. The study offers insights into how catastrophic fires are reframing perceptions of what constitutes effective vegetation management. It provides recommendations to assist with the development of education strategies that concurrently address wildfire management and biodiversity conservation, and contribute towards environmentally-informed and risk conscious governance.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, risk, peri-urban planning, wildfire management

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Authors: Mansour Hadji Hosseinlou, Alireza Mahdavi

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Transportation is one of any society's needs which have developed after improving economically and socially and is one of civilization symbols today. Although it is so useful for human, it leads to many serious harms and injuries. The development of communication system and building new roads has resulted in increasing the rate of accidents; therefore, in practice, this increasing rate has decreased the advantages of transportation. Traffic accidents are one of the causes of death, serious financial and bodily harms and its significant social, economic and cultural consequences threatens the societies seriously. Iran's ground transportation system is one of the most eventful transportation systems in the world and mortality rate and financial harms cost too much for the country in national aspect. Therefore, we have presented a data collection by referring to recorded statistics of the accidents occurred in freeways from 2013 to 2015. These statistics are recorded in different related databases, generally police and road transportation system. The data is separated and arranged in tables and after preparing, processing and prioritizing the factors, the achieved collection is presented to the departments, managers and researchers to help them suggest practical solutions.

Keywords: freeways’ accidents, humane causes, death, tiredness, drowsiness

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Authors: Sahar Tabarroki, Ahad Nazari

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The design process is one of the most key project processes in the construction industry. Although architects have the responsibility to produce complete, accurate, and coordinated documents, architectural design is accompanied by many errors. A design error occurs when the constraints and requirements of the design are not satisfied. Errors are potentially costly and time-consuming to correct if not caught early during the design phase, and they become expensive in either construction documents or in the construction phase. The aim of this research is to identify the risk factors of architectural design errors, so identification of risks is necessary. First, a literature review in the design process was conducted and then a questionnaire was designed to identify the risks and risk factors. The questions in the form of the questionnaire were based on the “similar service description of study and supervision of architectural works” published by “Vice Presidency of Strategic Planning & Supervision of I.R. Iran” as the base of architects’ tasks. Second, the top 10 risks of architectural activities were identified. To determine the positions of possible causes of risks with respect to architectural activities, these activities were located in a design process modeled by the IDEF0 technique. The research was carried out by choosing a case study, checking the design drawings, interviewing its architect and client, and providing a checklist in order to identify the concrete examples of architectural design errors. The results revealed that activities such as “defining the current and future requirements of the project”, “studies and space planning,” and “time and cost estimation of suggested solution” has a higher error risk than others. Moreover, the most important causes include “unclear goals of a client”, “time force by a client”, and “lack of knowledge of architects about the requirements of end-users”. For error detecting in the case study, lack of criteria, standards and design criteria, and lack of coordination among them, was a barrier, anyway, “lack of coordination between architectural design and electrical and mechanical facility”, “violation of the standard dimensions and sizes in space designing”, “design omissions” were identified as the most important design errors.

Keywords: architectural design, design error, risk management, risk factor

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Authors: Safia Akram

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The influence of nanofluid with different waveforms in the presence of inclined asymmetric channel on peristaltic transport of a pseudoplastic fluid is examined. The governing equations for two-dimensional and two directional flows of a pseudoplastic fluid along with nanofluid are modeled and then simplified under the assumptions of long wavelength and low Reynolds number approximation. The exact solutions for temperature and nanoparticle volume fraction are calculated. Series solution of the stream function and pressure gradient are carried out using perturbation technique. The flow quantities have been examined for various physical parameters of interest. It was found, that the magnitude value of the velocity profile decreases with an increase in volume flow rate (Q) and relaxation times (ζ) and increases in sinusoidal, multisinusoidal, trapezoidal and triangular waves. It was also observed that the size of the trapping bolus decreases with the drop of the width of the channel ‘d’ and increases with a rise of relaxation times ζ.

Keywords: nanofluid particles, peristaltic flow, pseudoplastic fluid, different waveforms, inclined asymmetric channel

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Authors: Bahareh Montakhabi

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Earthquake is known as one of the deadliest natural disasters, with a high potential for damage to life and property. Some of Iran's cities were completely destroyed after major earthquakes, and the people of the region suffered a lot of mental, financial and psychological damage. Tehran is one of the cities located on the fault line. According to experts, the only city that could be severely damaged by a moderate earthquake in Earthquake Engineering Intensity Scale (EEIS) (70% destruction) is Tehran because Tehran is built precisely on the fault. Seismic risk assessment (SRA) of cities in the scale of urban areas and neighborhoods is the first phase of the earthquake crisis management process, which can provide the information required to make optimal use of available resources and facilities in order to reduce the destructive effects and consequences of an earthquake. This study has investigated strategies to promote safety and reduce the vulnerability of worn-out urban textures in the District 12 of Tehran to the potential risk of earthquake aimed at prioritizing the factors affecting the vulnerability of worn-out urban textures to earthquake crises and how to reduce them, using the analytical-exploratory method, analytical hierarchy process (AHP), Expert choice and SWOT technique. The results of SWAT and AHP analysis of the vulnerability of the worn-out textures of District 12 to internal threats (1.70) and external threats (2.40) indicate weak safety of the textures of District 12 regarding internal and external factors and a high possibility of damage.

Keywords: risk management, vulnerability, worn-out textures, earthquake

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Authors: Nqobizwe Mvelo Ngema

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Botswana has a dual legal system, one based on customary law and the other on the received law. This appears clearly from the Constitution that ring-fenced customary law from any constitutional scrutiny. A customary practice may continue even if it discriminates against women and children. As a result of this, numerous human rights of children are infringed. Firstly, if parents are married under customary law and separated, the custody is granted to the father and the mother merely having the right to visit. Secondly, female children are not entitled to inherit property. Thirdly, there is no age for marriage under customary law and even a child at the age of 10 years can get married. Lastly, marital power of a husband still continues under customary law and therefore females are still treated as perpetual minors. The latter infringement of rights is not in the best interests of children and conflicts with Botswana’s international obligations. Botswana is a signatory of various international and regional human rights instruments and it is suggested that it has to accelerate the incorporation of human rights instruments into domestic law in order to safeguard the best interest of children.

Keywords: custody, marital power, children's best interest, customary law

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Authors: Malik Shahzad Shabbir, Muhammad Saarim Ghazi, Amir Khalil ur Rehman

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This study examines the factors which influence and contribute towards the financial viability of Islamic finance and its impact on global financial stability. However, the purpose of this paper is to differentiate the practical implications of both Islamic and conventional finance on global financial stability. The Islamic finance is asset backed financing which creates wealth through trade, commerce and believes in risk and return sharing. Islamic banking is asset driven as against to conventional banking which is liability driven. In order to introduce new financial products for market, financial innovation in Islamic finance must be within the Shari’ah parameters that are tested against the ‘Maqasid al-Shari’ah’. Interest-based system leads to income and wealth inequalities and mis-allocation of resources. Moreover, this system has absence of just and equitable aspect of distribution that may exploit either the debt holder or the financier. Such implications are reached to a tipping point that leaves only one choice: change or face continued decline and misery.

Keywords: viability, global financial stability, practical implications, asset driven, tipping point

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Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

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This study was analyzed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Thailand for the period 1981-2011.The study includes an analysis of the average and trends of changes in temperature and precipitation using 22 climate indices, related to the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme climate events. The results showed that the averaged trend of maximum, minimum and mean temperature is likely to increase over the study area in rate of 0.5, 0.9 and 0.7 °C in last 30 years. Changes in temperature at nighttime, then rising at a rate higher daytime is resulting to decline of diurnal temperature range throughout the area. Trend of changes in average precipitation during the year 1981-2011 is expected to increase at an average rate of 21%. The intensity of extreme temperature events is increasing almost all station. In particular, the changes of the night were unusually hot has intensified throughout the region. In some provinces such as Chiang Mai and Lampang are likely be faced with the severity of hot days and hot nights in increasing rate. Frequency of extreme temperature events are likely to increase each station, especially hot days, and hot nights are increasing at a rate of 2.38 and 3.58 days per decade. Changes in the cold days and cold nights are declining at a rate of 0.82 and 3.03 days per decade. The duration of extreme temperature events is expected to increase the events hot in every station. An average of 17.8 days per decade for the number of consecutive cold winter nights likely shortens the rate of 2.90 days per decade. The analysis of the precipitation indices reveals the intensity of extreme precipitation is increasing almost across the region. The intensify expressed the heavy rain in one day (Rx1day) and very heavy rain accumulated in 5 days (RX5day) which is likely to increase, and very heavy rainfall is likely to increase in intensity. Frequency of extreme precipitation events is likely to increase over the station. The average frequency of heavy precipitation events increased xxx days per decade. The duration of extreme precipitation events, such as the consecutive dry days are likely to reduce the numbers almost all station while the consecutive wet days tends to increase and decrease at different numbers in different areas.

Keywords: climate extreme, temperature extreme, precipitation extreme, Northern Thailand

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Authors: Taeho Park, Ming Zhou, Sangryul Shim

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With the emergence of the global economy, today’s business environment is getting more competitive than ever in the past. And many supply chain (SC) strategies and operations have significantly been altered over the past decade to overcome more complexities and risks imposed onto the global business. First, offshoring and outsourcing are more adopted as operational strategies. Manufacturing continues to move to better locations for enhancing competitiveness. Second, international operations are a challenge to a company’s SC system. Third, the products traded in the SC system are not just physical goods, but also digital goods (e.g., software, e-books, music, video materials). There are three main flows involved in fulfilling the activities in the SC system: physical flow, information flow, and financial flow. An advance of the Internet and electronic communication technologies has enabled companies to perform the flows of SC activities in electronic formats, resulting in the advent of an electronic supply chain management (e-SCM) system. A SC system for digital goods is somewhat different from the supply chain system for physical goods. However, it involves many similar or identical SC activities and flows. For example, like the production of physical goods, many third parties are also involved in producing digital goods for the production of components and even final products. This research aims at identifying process flows of both physical and digital goods in a SC system, and then investigating all risk elements involved in the physical, information, and financial flows during the fulfilment of SC activities. There are many risks inherent in the e-SCM system. Some risks may have severe impact on a company’s business, and some occur frequently but are not detrimental enough to jeopardize a company. Thus, companies should assess the impact and frequency of those risks, and then prioritize them in terms of their severity, frequency, budget, and time in order to be carefully maintained. We found risks involved in the global trading of physical and digital goods in four different categories: environmental risk, strategic risk, technological risk, and operational risk. And then the significance of those risks was investigated through a survey. The survey asked companies about the frequency and severity of the identified risks. They were also asked whether they had faced those risks in the past. Since the characteristics and supply chain flows of digital goods are varying industry by industry and country by country, it is more meaningful and useful to analyze risks by industry and country. To this end, more data in each industry sector and country should be collected, which could be accomplished in the future research.

Keywords: digital goods, e-SCM, risk analysis, supply chain flows

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Authors: S. Rezaei, Z. Mirzaei, M. Khalighi, J. Bahrami

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Bridges, as an essential part of road infrastructures, are affected by various deterioration mechanisms over time due to the changes in their performance. As changes in performance can have many negative impacts on society, it is essential to be able to evaluate and measure the performance of bridges throughout their life. This evaluation includes the development or the choice of the appropriate performance indicators, which, in turn, are measured based on the selection of appropriate models for the existing deterioration mechanism. The purpose of this article is a statistical study of indicators and deterioration mechanisms of bridges in order to discover further research capacities in bridges performance assessment. For this purpose, some of the most common indicators of bridge performance, including reliability, risk, vulnerability, robustness, and resilience, were selected. The researches performed on each index based on the desired deterioration mechanisms and hazards were comprehensively reviewed. In addition, the formulation of the indicators and their relationship with each other were studied. The research conducted on the mentioned indicators were classified from the point of view of deterministic or probabilistic method, the level of study (element level, object level, etc.), and the type of hazard and the deterioration mechanism of interest. For each of the indicators, a number of challenges and recommendations were presented according to the review of previous studies.

Keywords: bridge, deterioration mechanism, lifecycle, performance indicator

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Authors: Houman Tamaddon, Mehrdad Behnia, Masud Behnia

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An accurate study of blood flow is associated with an accurate vascular pattern and geometrical properties of the organ of interest. Due to the complexity of vascular networks and poor accessibility in vivo, it is challenging to reconstruct the entire vasculature of any organ experimentally. The objective of this study is to introduce an innovative approach for the reconstruction of a full vascular tree from available morphometric data. Our method consists of implementing morphometric data on those parts of the vascular tree that are smaller than the resolution of medical imaging methods. This technique reconstructs the entire arterial tree down to the capillaries. Vessels greater than 2 mm are obtained from direct volume and surface analysis using contrast enhanced computed tomography (CT). Vessels smaller than 2mm are reconstructed from available morphometric and distensibility data and rearranged by applying Murray’s Laws. Implementation of morphometric data to reconstruct the branching pattern and applying Murray’s Laws to every vessel bifurcation simultaneously, lead to an accurate vascular tree reconstruction. The reconstruction algorithm generates full arterial tree topography down to the first capillary bifurcation. Geometry of each order of the vascular tree is generated separately to minimize the construction and simulation time. The node-to-node connectivity along with the diameter and length of every vessel segment is established and order numbers, according to the diameter-defined Strahler system, are assigned. During the simulation, we used the averaged flow rate for each order to predict the pressure drop and once the pressure drop is predicted, the flow rate is corrected to match the computed pressure drop for each vessel. The final results for 3 cardiac cycles is presented and compared to the clinical data.

Keywords: blood flow, morphometric data, vascular tree, Strahler ordering system

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Authors: Mustafa Sertçelik, Turan Çalban, Hacali Necefoğlu, Sabri Çolak

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In this study, Chevreul’s salt solubility and its dissolution kinetics in ammonium chloride solutions were investigated. Chevreul’s salt that we used in the studies was obtained by using the optimum conditions (ammonium sulphide concentration; 0,4 M, copper sulphate concentration; 0,25 M, temperature; 60°C, stirring speed; 600 rev/min, pH; 4 and reaction time; 15 mins) determined by T. Çalban et al. Chevreul’s salt solubility in ammonium chloride solutions and the kinetics of dissolution were investigated. The selected parameters that affect solubility were reaction temperature, concentration of ammonium chloride, stirring speed, and solid/liquid ratio. Correlation of experimental results had been achieved using linear regression implemented in the statistical package program statistica. The effect of parameters on Chevreul’s salt solubility was examined and integrated rate expression of dissolution rate was found using kinetic models in solid-liquid heterogeneous reactions. The results revealed that the dissolution rate of Chevreul’s salt was decreasing while temperature, concentration of ammonium chloride and stirring speed were increasing. On the other hand, dissolution rate was found to be decreasing with the increase of solid/liquid ratio. Based on result of the applications of the obtained experimental results to the kinetic models, we can deduce that Chevreul’s salt dissolution rate is controlled by diffusion through the ash (or product layer). Activation energy of the reaction of dissolution was found as 74.83 kJ/mol. The integrated rate expression along with the effects of parameters on Chevreul's salt solubility was found to be as follows: 1-3(1-X)2/3+2(1-X)= [2,96.1013.(CA)3,08 .(S/L)-038.(W)1,23 e-9001,2/T].t

Keywords: Chevreul's salt, copper, ammonium chloride, ammonium sulphide, dissolution kinetics

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Authors: Hamid Ghasemzadeh- Nava, Maziar Kaveh Baghbadorani, Amin Tamadon

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Considering response of uterus to ecbolic effect of oxytocin near the time of parturition, this study was done for investigating the effect of prophylactic administration of this hormone on duration of fetal membrane retention, time interval to first detectable estrus, time interval to first service, and conception rate at first service in cases of both normal parturition and dystocia. For this reason cows with (n=18) and without (n=18) dystocia assigned randomly to treatment (n=12) or control (n=6) groups and received intramuscular injection of 100 IU of oxytocin or 10 mL of normal saline respectively. Further observations and investigations indicate that duration of fetal retention is significantly shorter in treatment group cows compared to control groups, regardless of having dystocia (P=0.002) or normal spontaneous calving (P=0.001). The same trend exists for conception rate at first service in which cows in treatment groups had significantly higher conception rate (CR) in comparison to cows in control groups with (P=0.0003) or without dystocia (P=0.017). The time interval to first detected heat and first service didn’t show any difference between groups.

Keywords: conception rate, oxytocin, RFM, time to first service

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Authors: Jiaqi Huang, Lu Jin

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Pervious concrete features with high water permeability rate. However, due to the lack of fine aggregates, the compressive strength is usually lower than other conventional concrete products. Optimization of pervious concrete mix design has long been recognized as an effective mechanism to achieve high compressive strength while maintaining desired permeability rate. In this paper, a Gibbs Sampling based algorithm is proposed to approximate the optimal mix design to achieve a high compressive strength of pervious concrete. We prove that the proposed algorithm efficiently converges to the set of global optimal solutions. The convergence rate and accuracy depend on a control parameter employed in the proposed algorithm. The simulation results show that, by using the proposed approach, the system converges to the optimal solution quickly and the derived optimal mix design achieves the maximum compressive strength while maintaining the desired permeability rate.

Keywords: convergence, Gibbs Sampling, high compressive strength, optimal mix design, pervious concrete

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Authors: Costrie Ganes Widayanti

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Learning Disabilities (LDs) are less understood by the Indonesia’s educational practitioners. As a result, students with LDs are at risk of being outcast from the learning process that requires participation, which potentially disconnects them academically and socially. Its objective is to raise the voice of students with LDs regarding their engagement in the classroom. This research is conducted in two urban regular public primary schools in Indonesia. The study uses an ethnographic case study research design, which explores the views and experiences of four (4) students with LDs. The data were collected using participant observations and interviews. The preliminary findings highlighted two areas: 1) the stigmatization about LDs; and 2) perceived membership. Having LDs was a barrier to fully engage in the academic and social life. Interestingly, they were more likely dependent on each other for support as limited assistance was offered by teachers and peers. Their peers did not take a keen interest in helping them when they found difficulties with the assignments. Furthermore, due to their low academic performance, they were not in favor of being nominated as a group member. In a situation that required them to do a group assignment, they were not expected to give a contribution, positioning themselves as incompatible. These findings indicated that such practices legitimate the hegemony of the superior over those who are powerless and left behind.

Keywords: engagement, experiences, learning disability, qualitative design

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Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouri, Majid Bayatian

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Analysis of fire data is a way for the implementation of any plan to improve the level of safety in cities. Such an analysis is able to reveal signs of changes in a given period and can be used as a measure of safety. The information of about 66,341 fires (from 2002 to 2012) released by Tehran Safety Services and Fire-Fighting Organization and data on the population and the number of households provided by Tehran Municipality and the Statistical Yearbook of Iran were extracted. Using the data, the fire changes, the rate of injuries, and mortality rate were determined and analyzed. The rate of injuries and mortality rate of fires per one million population of Tehran were 59.58% and 86.12%, respectively. During the study period, the number of fires and fire stations increased by 104.38% and 102.63%, respectively. Most fires (9.21%) happened in the 4th District of Tehran. The results showed that the recorded fire data have not been systematically planned for fire prevention since one of the ways to reduce injuries caused by fires is to develop a systematic plan for necessary actions in emergency situations. To determine a reliable source for fire prevention, the stages, definitions of working processes and the cause and effect chains should be considered. Therefore, a comprehensive statistical system should be developed for reported and recorded fire data.

Keywords: fire statistics, fire analysis, accident prevention, Tehran

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Authors: Enrique Barbieri

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The basic disease-spread model described by three states denoting the susceptible (S), infectious (I), and removed (recovered and deceased) (R) sub-groups of the total population N, or SIR model, has been considered. Heuristic mitigating action profiles of the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical types may be developed in a control design setting for the purpose of reducing the transmission rate or improving the recovery rate parameters in the model. Even though the transmission and recovery rates are not control inputs in the traditional sense, a linear observer and feedback controller can be tuned to generate an asymptotic estimate of the transmission rate for a linearized, discrete-time version of the SIR model. Then, a set of mitigating actions is suggested to steer the basic reproduction number toward unity, in which case the disease does not spread, and the infected population state does not suffer from multiple waves. The special case of piecewise constant transmission rate is described and applied to a seventh-order SEIQRDP model, which segments the population into four additional states. The offline simulations in discrete time may be used to produce heuristic policies implemented by public health and government organizations.

Keywords: control of SIR, observer, SEIQRDP, disease spread

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Authors: Irfan Khairi

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It is arguable that today's social media has dramatically redefined human contact, and chiefly because the platforms enable communication opportunities unprecedented. Without question, billions of individuals globally engage in the media, a reality by no means lost on businesses and social entrepreneurs desirous of generating interest in a cause, movement, or other social effort. If, however, the opportunities are immense, so too is the competition. Private persons and entrepreneurial concerns alike virtually saturate the popular sites of Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, and most are intent on capturing as much external interest as possible. At the same time, however, the social entrepreneur possesses an advantage over the individual concerned only the social aspects of the sites, as they express interests in, and measures applicable to, important causes of which the public at large may be unaware. There is, unfortunately, no single means of assuring success in using the media outlets to generate interest. Nonetheless, a general awareness of how social media sites function, as well as the psychological elements relevant to the functioning, is necessary. It is as important to comprehend basic realities of the platforms and approaches that fail as it is to develop strategy, for the latter relies on knowledge of the former. This awareness in place, the social entrepreneur is then better enabled to determine strategy, in terms of which sites to focus upon and how to most effectively convey their message. What is required is familiarity with the online communities, with attention to the specific advantages each provides. Ultimately, today's social entrepreneur may establish a highly effective platform of promotion and engagement, provided they fully comprehend the social investment necessary for success.

Keywords: social media, marketing, e-commerce, internet business

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Authors: Yin-Hsuan Wu, Perng-Jy Tsai, Ying-Fang Wang, Shun-Hui Chung

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The present study was conducted to characterize exposure concentrations, concentrations deposited on the different respiratory regions, and resultant health risks associated with heavy metal exposures for road marking workers. Road marking workers of three similar exposure groups (SEGs) were selected, including the paint pouring worker, marking worker, and preparing worker. Personal exposure samples were collected using an inhalable dust sampler (IOM), and the involved particle size distribution samples were estimated using an eight-stage Marple personal cascade impactor during five working days. In total, 25 IOM samples and 20 Marple samples were collected. All collected samples were analyzed for their heavy metal contents using the ICP/MS. The resultant heavy metal particle size distributions were also used to estimate the fractions of particle deposited on the head airways (Chead), tracheobronchial (Cthorac) and alveolar regions (Cresp) of the exposed workers. In addition, Pb and Cr were selected to estimate the incremental cancer risk, and Zn, Ti, and Mo were selected to estimate the corresponding non-cancer risk in the present study. Results show that three heavy metals, including Pb, Cr, and Ti, were found with the highest concentrations for the SEG of the paint pouring worker (=0.585±2.98, 0.307±1.71, 0.902±2.99 μg/m³, respectively). For the fraction of heavy metal particle deposited on the respiratory tract, both alveolar and head regions were found with the highest values (=23-43% and 39-61%, respectively). For both SEGs of the paint pouring and marking, 51% of Cr, 59-61% of Zn, and 48-51% of Ti were found to be deposited on the alveolar region, and 41-43% of Pb was deposited on the head region. Finally, the incremental cancer risk for the SEGs of the paint pouring, marking, and preparing were found as 1.08×10⁻⁵, 2.78×10⁻⁶, and 2.20×10⁻⁶, respectively. In addition, the estimated non-cancer risk for the above three SEGs was found to be consistently less than unity. In conclusion, though the estimated non-cancer risk was less than unity, all resultant incremental cancer risk was greater than 10⁻⁶ indicating the abatement of workers’ exposure is necessary. It is suggested that strategies, including placing on the molten kettle, substitution the currently used paints for less heavy metal containing paints, and wearing fume protecting personal protective equipment can be considered in the future from reducing the worker’s exposure aspect.

Keywords: health risk assessment, heavy metal, respiratory track deposition, road marking

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Authors: Tetyana Baydyk, Ernst Kussul, Sandra Bonilla Meza

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There are many articles that attempt to establish the role of different facial fragments in face recognition. Various approaches are used to estimate this role. Frequently, authors calculate the entropy corresponding to the fragment. This approach can only give approximate estimation. In this paper, we propose to use a more direct measure of the importance of different fragments for face recognition. We propose to select a recognition method and a face database and experimentally investigate the recognition rate using different fragments of faces. We present two such experiments in the paper. We selected the PCNC neural classifier as a method for face recognition and parts of the LFW (Labeled Faces in the Wild) face database as training and testing sets. The recognition rate of the best experiment is comparable with the recognition rate obtained using the whole face.

Keywords: face recognition, labeled faces in the wild (LFW) database, random local descriptor (RLD), random features

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Authors: Tamer Shehata

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Recently, nanotechnology acquired a great interest in the field of pharmaceutical production. Several pharmaceutical equipment were introduced into the research field for production of nanoparticles, among them, BÜCHI’ fourth generation nano-spray dryer B-90. B-90 is specialized with single step of production and drying of nano and microparticles. Currently, our research group is investigating several pharmaceutical formulations utilizing BÜCHI Nano-Spray Dryer B-90 technology. One of our projects is the formulation and evaluation of metformin hydrochloride mucoadhesive microparticles for treatment of type 2-diabetis. Several polymers were investigated, among them, gelatin and sodium alginate. The previous polymers are natural polymers with mucoadhesive properties. Preformulation studies such as atomization head mesh size, flow rate, head temperature, polymer solution viscosity and surface tension were performed. Postformulation characters such as particle size, flowability, surface scan and dissolution profile were evaluated. Finally, the pharmacological activity of certain selected formula was evaluated in streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats. B-90’spray head was 7 µm hole heated to 120 with air flow rate 3.5 mL/min. The viscosity of the solution was less than 11.5 cP with surface tension less than 70.1 dyne/cm. Successfully, discrete, non-aggregated particles and free flowing powders with particle size was less than 2000 nm were obtained. Gelatin and Sodium alginate combination in ratio 1:3 were successfully sustained the in vitro release profile of the drug. Hypoglycemic evaluation of the previous formula showed a significant reduction of blood glucose level over 24 h. In conclusion, mucoadhesive metformin hydrochloride microparticles obtained from B-90 could offer a convenient dosage form with enhanced hypoglycemic activity.

Keywords: mucoadhesive, microparticles, metformin hydrochloride, nano-spray dryer

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Authors: Marisa Chrysochoou, James Mahoney, Kay Wille

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Pyrrhotite is an iron-sulfide mineral which releases sulfuric acid when exposed to water and oxygen. The presence of this mineral in concrete foundations across Connecticut and Massachusetts in the US is causing in some cases premature failure. This has resulted in a devastating crisis for all parties affected by this type of failure which can take up to 15-25 years before internal damage becomes visible on the surface. This study shares laboratory results aimed to investigate the fundamental mechanisms of pyrrhotite reaction and to further the understanding of its deterioration kinetics within concrete. This includes the following analyses: total sulfur, wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence, expansion, reaction rate combined with ion-chromatography, as well as damage evolution using electro-chemical acceleration. This information is coupled to a statistical analysis of over 150 analyzed concrete foundations. Those samples were obtained and process using a developed and validated sampling method that is minimally invasive to the foundation in use, provides representative samples of the concrete matrix across the entire foundation, and is time and cost-efficient. The processed samples were then analyzed using a developed modular testing method based on total sulfur and wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis to quantify the amount of pyrrhotite. As part of the statistical analysis the results were grouped into the following three categories: no damage observed and no pyrrhotite detected, no damage observed and pyrrhotite detected and damaged observed and pyrrhotite detected. As expected, a strong correlation between amount of pyrrhotite, age of the concrete and damage is observed. Information from the laboratory investigation and from the statistical analysis of field samples will aid in forming a scientific basis to support the decision process towards sustainable financial and administrative solutions by state and local stakeholders.

Keywords: concrete, pyrrhotite, risk of failure, statistical analysis

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Authors: Tomas Vencurik, Jiri Nykodym

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This study compares the intensity of game load among player positions and between the 1st and the 2nd half of the games. Two guards, three forwards, and three centers (female basketball players) participated in this study. The heart rate (HR) and its development were monitored during two competitive games. Statistically insignificant differences in the intensity of game load were recorded between guards, forwards, and centers below and above 85% of the maximal heart rate (HRmax) and in the mean HR as % of HRmax (87.81±3.79%, 87.02±4.37%, and 88.76±3.54%, respectively). Moreover, when the 1st and the 2nd half of the games were compared in the mean HR (87.89±4.18% vs. 88.14±3.63% of HRmax), no statistical significance was recorded. This information can be useful for coaching staff, to manage and to precisely plan the training process.

Keywords: game load, heart rate, player positions, the 1st, the 2nd half of the games

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Authors: Erin V. Kelly, Nicola C. Newton, Lexine A. Stapinski, Maree Teesson

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Introduction: There is a lack of targeted prevention programs for reducing bullying and distress among adolescents involved in bullying. The current study aimed to examine the impact of a personality-targeted intervention (Preventure) on bullying (victimization and perpetration) and distress among adolescent victims/bullies with high-risk personality types. Method: A cluster randomized trial (RCT) was conducted in 26 secondary schools (2190 students) in NSW and Victoria, Australia, as part of the Climate Schools and Preventure trial. The schools were randomly allocated to Preventure (13 schools received Preventure, 13 did not). Students were followed up at 4 time points (6, 12, 24 and 36 months post-baseline). Preventure involves two group sessions, based on cognitive behavioral therapy, and tailored to four personality types shown to increase risk of substance misuse and other emotional and behavioural problems, including impulsivity, sensation-seeking, anxiety sensitivity and hopelessness. Students were allocated to the personality-targeted groups based on their scores on the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale. Bullying was measured using an amended version of the Revised Olweus Bully/Victim Scale. Psychological distress was measured using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale. Results: Among high-risk students classified as victims at baseline, those in Preventure schools reported significantly less victimization and distress over time than those in control schools. Among high-risk students classified as bullies at baseline, those in Preventure schools reported significantly less distress over time than those in control schools (no difference for perpetration). Conclusion: Preventure is a promising intervention for reducing bullying victimization and psychological distress among adolescents involved in bullying.

Keywords: adolescents, bullying, personality, prevention

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Authors: Souheila Zemmouchi

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Introduction: Diabetes is currently the leading cause of end-stage chronic kidney disease and dialysis, so it adds additional complexity to the management of chronic hemodialysis patients. These patients are extremely fragile because of their multiple cardiovascular and metabolic comorbidities. Clear and complete description of the experience: the management of a diabetic on hemodialysis is particularly difficult due to frequent hypoglycaemia and significant inter and perdialyticglycemic variability that is difficult to predict. The aim of our study is to describe the clinical-biological profile and to assess the cardiovascular risk of diabetics undergoing chronic hemodialysis, and compare them with non-diabetic hemodialysis patients. Methods: This cross-sectional, descriptive, and analytical study was carried out between January 01 and December 31, 2018, involving 309 hemodialysis patients spread over 4 centersThe data were collected prospectively then compiled and analyzed by the SPSS Version 10 software The FRAMINGHAM RISK SCORE has been used to assess cardiovascular risk in all hemodialysis patients Results: The survey involved 309 hemodialysis patients, including 83 diabetics, for a prevalence of 27% The average age 53 ± 10.2 years. The sex ratio is 1.5. 50% of diabetic hemodialysis patients retained residual diuresis against 32% in non-diabetics. In the group of diabetics, we noted more hypertension (70% versus 38% non-diabetics P 0.004), more intradialytichypoglycemia (15% versus 3% non-diabetics P 0.007), initially, vascular exhaustion was found in 4 diabetics versus 2 non-diabetics. 70% of diabetics with anuria had postdialytichyperglycemia. The study found a statistically significant difference between the different levels of cardiovascular risk according to the diabetic status. Conclusion: There are many challenges in the management of diabetics on hemodialysis, both to optimize glycemic control according to an individualized target and to coordinate comprehensive and effective care.

Keywords: hemodialysis, diabetes, chronic renal failure, glycemic control

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Authors: Guilhermina Torrao

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An extensive number of studies have been conducted to determine the factors which influence crash injury risk (CIR); however, uncertainties inherent to selected variables have been neglected. A review of existing literature is required to not only obtain an overview of the variables and measures but also ascertain the implications when comparing studies without a systematic view of variable taxonomy. Therefore, the aim of this literature review is to examine and report on peer-reviewed studies in the field of crash analysis and to understand the implications of broad variations in variable selection in CIR analysis. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the variance in variable selection and classification when modeling injury risk involving occupants of light vehicles by presenting an analytical review of the literature. Based on data collected from 64 journal publications reported over the past 21 years, the analytical review discusses the variables selected by each study across an organized list of predictors for CIR analysis and provides a better understanding of the contribution of accident and vehicle factors to injuries acquired by occupants of light vehicles. A cross-comparison analysis demonstrates that almost half the studies (48%) did not consider vehicle design specifications (e.g., vehicle weight), whereas, for those that did, the vehicle age/model year was the most selected explanatory variable used by 41% of the literature studies. For those studies that included speed risk factor in their analyses, the majority (64%) used the legal speed limit data as a ‘proxy’ of vehicle speed at the moment of a crash, imposing limitations for CIR analysis and modeling. Despite the proven efficiency of airbags in minimizing injury impact following a crash, only 22% of studies included airbag deployment data. A major contribution of this study is to highlight the uncertainty linked to explanatory variable selection and identify opportunities for improvements when performing future studies in the field of road injuries.

Keywords: crash, exploratory, injury, risk, variables, vehicle

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Authors: Zaw Z Aung

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Background: High-risk groups for hepatitis B infection (HBV) are people who injected drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM), people living with HIV (PLHIV) and persons with hepatitis C (HCV), etc. HBV/HCV coinfected patients are at increased risk of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma. To the best of author’s knowledge, there is currently no data for hepatitis B vaccine utilization in HCV positive patients and their antibody response. Methodology: From February 2018 to May 2018, consented participants at or above 18 years who came to the clinic in Mandalay were tested with the anti-HCV rapid test. Those who tested HCV positive (n=168) were further tested with hepatitis B profile and asked about their previous hepatitis B vaccination history and risk factors. Results: Out of 168 HCV positive participants, three were excluded for active HBV infections. The remaining 165 were categorized into previously vaccinated 64% (n=106) and unvaccinated 36% (n=59) There were three characteristics groups- PWID monoinfected (n=77), General Population (GP) monoinfected (n=22) and HIV/HCV coinfected participants (n=66). Unvaccinated participants were highest in HIV/HCV, with 68%(n=45) followed by GP (23%, n=5) and PWID (12%, n=9). Among previously vaccinated participants, the highest percentage was PWID (88%, n=68), the second highest was GP (77%, n=17) and lowest in HIV/HCV patients (32%, n=21). 63 participants completed third doses of vaccination (PWID=36, GP=13, HIV/HCV=14). 53% of participants who completed 3 dose of hepatitis B were non-responders (n=34): HIV/HCV (86%, n=12), PWID (44%, n=16), and GP (46%, n=6) Conclusion: Even in the presence of effective and safe hepatitis B vaccine, uptake is low among high risk groups especially PLHIV that needs to be improved. Integration or collaboration of hepatitis B vaccination program, HIV/AIDS and hepatitis C treatment centers is desirable. About half of vaccinated participants were non-responders so that optimal doses, schedule and follow-up testing need to be addressed carefully for those groups.

Keywords: Hepatitis B vaccine, Hepatitis C, HIV, Myanmar

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Authors: Antonio Horta, Renato Marinho, Raimir Holanda

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Considered as an evolution of the Blockchain, the Ethereum platform, besides allowing transactions of its cryptocurrency named Ether, it allows the programming of decentralised applications (DApps) and smart contracts. However, this functionality into blockchains has raised other types of threats, and the exploitation of smart contracts vulnerabilities has taken companies to experience big losses. This research intends to figure out the number of contracts that are under risk of being drained. Through a deep investigation, more than two hundred thousand smart contracts currently available in the Ethereum platform were scanned and estimated how much money is at risk. The experiment was based in a query run on Google Big Query in July 2022 and returned 50,707,133 contracts published on the Ethereum platform. After applying the filtering criteria, the experimentgot 430,584 smart contracts to download and analyse. The filtering criteria consisted of filtering out: ERC20 and ERC721 contracts, contracts without transactions, and contracts without balance. From this amount of 430,584 smart contracts selected, only 268,103 had source codes published on Etherscan, however, we discovered, using a hashing process, that there were contracts duplication. Removing the duplicated contracts, the process ended up with 20,417 source codes, which were analysed using the open source SAST tool smartbugswith oyente and securify algorithms. In the end, there was nearly $100,000 at risk of being drained from the potentially vulnerable smart contracts. It is important to note that the tools used in this study may generate false positives, which may interfere with the number of vulnerable contracts. To address this point, our next step in this research is to develop an application to test the contract in a parallel environment to verify the vulnerability. Finally, this study aims to alert users and companies about the risk on not properly creating and analysing their smart contracts before publishing them into the platform. As any other application, smart contracts are at risk of having vulnerabilities which, in this case, may result in direct financial losses.

Keywords: blockchain, reentrancy, static application security testing, smart contracts

Procedia PDF Downloads 74