Search results for: multivariate models.

Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

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Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

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Authors: Saeedullah J. Mandokhail, Shamsher Sadiq, Meer H. Khan

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This paper presents the comparison of excess pore water pressure ratio (ru) predicted by using accumulated stress based pore pressure model and plasticity model. One dimensional effective stress site response analyses were performed on a 30 m deep sand column (consists of a liquefiable layer in between non-liquefiable layers) using accumulated stress based pore pressure model in Deepsoil and PDMY2 (PressureDependentMultiYield02) model in Opensees. Three Input motions with different peak ground acceleration (PGA) levels of 0.357 g, 0.124 g, and 0.11 g were used in this study. The developed excess pore pressure ratio predicted by the above two models were compared and analyzed along the depth. The time history of the ru at mid of the liquefiable layer and non-liquefiable layer were also compared. The comparisons show that the two models predict mostly similar ru values. The predicted ru is also consistent with the PGA level of the input motions.

Keywords: effective stress, excess pore pressure ratio, pore pressure model, site response analysis

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Authors: Rosa Tsegaye Aga, Xuan Jiang, Pavel Vazquez Faci, Siqing Liu, Simon Rayner, Endalkachew Alemu, Markos Abebe

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of disease globally. In most cases, TB is treatable and curable, but only with the proper treatment. There is a time when drug-resistant TB occurs when bacteria become resistant to the drugs that are used to treat TB. Current strategies to identify drug-resistant TB bacteria are laboratory-based, and it takes a longer time to identify the drug-resistant bacteria and treat the patient accordingly. But machine learning (ML) and data science approaches can offer new approaches to the problem. In this study, we propose to develop an ML-based model to predict the antibiotic resistance phenotypes of TB isolates in minutes and give the right treatment to the patient immediately. The study has been using the whole genome sequence (WGS) of TB isolates as training data that have been extracted from the NCBI repository and contain different countries’ samples to build the ML models. The reason that different countries’ samples have been included is to generalize the large group of TB isolates from different regions in the world. This supports the model to train different behaviors of the TB bacteria and makes the model robust. The model training has been considering three pieces of information that have been extracted from the WGS data to train the model. These are all variants that have been found within the candidate genes (F1), predetermined resistance-associated variants (F2), and only resistance-associated gene information for the particular drug. Two major datasets have been constructed using these three information. F1 and F2 information have been considered as two independent datasets, and the third information is used as a class to label the two datasets. Five machine learning algorithms have been considered to train the model. These are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random forest (RF), Logistic regression (LR), Gradient Boosting, and Ada boost algorithms. The models have been trained on the datasets F1, F2, and F1F2 that is the F1 and the F2 dataset merged. Additionally, an ensemble approach has been used to train the model. The ensemble approach has been considered to run F1 and F2 datasets on gradient boosting algorithm and use the output as one dataset that is called F1F2 ensemble dataset and train a model using this dataset on the five algorithms. As the experiment shows, the ensemble approach model that has been trained on the Gradient Boosting algorithm outperformed the rest of the models. In conclusion, this study suggests the ensemble approach, that is, the RF + Gradient boosting model, to predict the antibiotic resistance phenotypes of TB isolates by outperforming the rest of the models.

Keywords: machine learning, MTB, WGS, drug resistant TB

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Authors: Zhifeng Kong

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Over-parameterized neural networks have attracted a great deal of attention in recent deep learning theory research, as they challenge the classic perspective of over-fitting when the model has excessive parameters and have gained empirical success in various settings. While a number of theoretical works have been presented to demystify properties of such models, the convergence properties of such models are still far from being thoroughly understood. In this work, we study the convergence properties of training two-hidden-layer partially over-parameterized fully connected networks with the Rectified Linear Unit activation via gradient descent. To our knowledge, this is the first theoretical work to understand convergence properties of deep over-parameterized networks without the equally-wide-hidden-layer assumption and other unrealistic assumptions. We provide a probabilistic lower bound of the widths of hidden layers and proved linear convergence rate of gradient descent. We also conducted experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets to validate our theory.

Keywords: over-parameterization, rectified linear units ReLU, convergence, gradient descent, neural networks

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Authors: Sathiya Susuman Appunni

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Background: This article reviews the self-reported pregnancies among teenage girls currently attending secondary school in South Africa. The study aim is to examine the demographic and socio-economic factors associated with self-reported pregnancies among teenage girls currently attending secondary school in the study area. Data and Methods: Secondary data drawn from the General Household Surveys 2016 and Community Survey 2016 as well as 10 % sample data from the 2011 South African census were used. Bivariate, and Multivariate analyses were carried in order to meet the aims of the study. Results: The independent variable identified was the number of economically active people in the household, which indicated 3.3% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2016 for the household with no economically active member. Among the provinces, Limpopo has been leading by 5.2% of self-reported pregnancies among the girls currently attending secondary school in South Africa. Conclusion: It is recommended that the needs to be special health policies and strategies in place to address this epidemic and such policies need to be targeted to the different needs of teenagers in the different demarcations of the country.

Keywords: pregnancy prevalence, demographic, household, teenage girls, socio-economic

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Authors: Ajit Kumar Yadav, Priyanka Yadav, F. Ram

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In present study is an effort to analyse the burden of diseases in the state. Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) is estimated non-communicable diseases. Multi-rounds (52nd, 60th and 71st round) of the National Sample Surveys (NSSO), conducted in 1995-96, 2004 and 2014 respectively, and Million Deaths Study (MDS) of 2001-03, 2006 and 2013-14 datasets are used. Descriptive and multivariate analyses are carried out to identify the determinants of different types of self-reported morbidity and DALY. The prevalence was higher for population aged 60 and above, among females, illiterates, and rich across the time period and for all the selected morbidities. The results were found to be significant at P<0.001. The estimation of DALY revealed that, the burden of communicable diseases was higher during infancy, noticeably among males than females in 2002. However, females aged 1-5 years were more vulnerable to report communicable diseases than the corresponding males. The age distribution of DALY indicates that individuals aged below 5 years and above 60 year were more susceptible to ill health. The growing incidence of non-communicable diseases especially among the older generations put additional burden on the health system in the state. The state has to grapple with the unsettled preventable infectious diseases in one hand and growing non-communicable in other hand.

Keywords: disease burden, non-communicable, communicable, India and region

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Authors: Zeinab Yazdanfar, Dilan Robert, Daniel Lester, S. Setunge

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Scour has been identified as the most common threat to bridge stability worldwide. Traditionally, scour around bridge piers is calculated using the empirical approaches that have considerable limitations and are difficult to generalize. The multi-physic nature of scouring which involves turbulent flow, soil mechanics and solid-fluid interactions cannot be captured by simple empirical equations developed based on limited laboratory data. These limitations can be overcome by direct numerical modeling of coupled hydro-mechanical scour process that provides a robust prediction of bridge scour and valuable insights into the scour process. Several numerical models have been proposed in the literature for bridge scour estimation including Eulerian flow models and coupled Euler-Lagrange models incorporating an empirical sediment transport description. However, the contact forces between particles and the flow-particle interaction haven’t been taken into consideration. Incorporating collisional and frictional forces between soil particles as well as the effect of flow-driven forces on particles will facilitate accurate modeling of the complex nature of scour. In this study, a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Discrete Element Model (CFD-DEM) has been developed to simulate the scour process that directly models the hydro-mechanical interactions between the sediment particles and the flowing water. This approach obviates the need for an empirical description as the fundamental fluid-particle, and particle-particle interactions are fully resolved. The sediment bed is simulated as a dense pack of particles and the frictional and collisional forces between particles are calculated, whilst the turbulent fluid flow is modeled using a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stocks (RANS) approach. The CFD-DEM model is validated against experimental data in order to assess the reliability of the CFD-DEM model. The modeling results reveal the criticality of particle impact on the assessment of scour depth which, to the authors’ best knowledge, hasn’t been considered in previous studies. The results of this study open new perspectives to the scour depth and time assessment which is the key to manage the failure risk of bridge infrastructures.

Keywords: bridge scour, discrete element method, CFD-DEM model, multi-phase model

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Authors: Yuan Long, Fabrizio Ceschin, David Harrison

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Environmental sustainability is under the threat of excessive single-use plastic packaging waste, and current waste management fails to address this issue. Therefore, it has led to a reidentification of the alternative, which can curb the packaging waste without reducing social needs. Reusable packaging represents a circular approach to close the loop of consumption in which packaging can stay longer in the system to satisfy social needs. However, the implementation of reusable packaging is fragmented and lacks systematic approaches. The product-service system (PSS) is widely regarded as a sustainable business model innovation for embracing circular consumption. As a result, applying PSS to reusable packaging solutions will be promising to address the packaging waste issue. This paper aims at filling the knowledge gap relating to apply PSS to reusable packaging solutions and provide a strategic design tool that could support packaging professionals to design reusable packaging solutions. The methodology of this paper is case studies and workshops to provide a design tool. The respondents are packaging professionals who are packaging consultants, NGO professionals, and entrepreneurs. 57 cases collected show that 15 archetypal models operate in the market. Subsequently, a polarity diagram is developed to embrace those 15 archetypal models, and a total number of 24 experts were invited for the workshop to evaluate the design tool. This research finally provides a strategic design tool to support packaging professionals to design reusable packaging solutions. The application of the tool is to support the understanding of the reusable packaging solutions, analyzing the markets, identifying new opportunities, and generate new business models. The implication of this research is to provide insights for academics and businesses in terms of tackling single-use packaging waste and build a foundation for further development of the reusable packaging solution tool.

Keywords: environmental sustainability, product-service system, reusable packaging, design tool

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Authors: Grmanesh Gidey Kahsay

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In modern technical engineering applications, quality is defined in two ways. The first one is that quality is the parameter that measures a product or service’s characteristics to meet and satisfy the pre-stated or fundamental needs (reliability, durability, serviceability). The second one is the quality of a product or service free of any defect or deficiencies. The American Society for Quality (ASQ) describes quality as a pursuit of optimal solutions to confirm successes and fulfillment to be accountable for the product or service's requirements and expectations. This article focuses on quality engineering tools in modern industrial applications. Quality engineering is a field of engineering that deals with the principles, techniques, models, and applications of the product or service to guarantee quality. Including the entire activities to analyze the product’s design and development, quality engineering emphasizes how to make sure that products and services are designed and developed to meet consumers’ requirements. This episode acquaints with quality tools such as quality systems, auditing, product design, and process control. The finding presents thoughts that aim to improve quality engineering proficiency and effectiveness by introducing essential quality techniques and tools in some selected industries.

Keywords: essential quality tools, quality systems and models, quality management systems, and quality assurance

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Authors: S. Khamtree, T. Ratanawilai, C. Nuntadusit

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Rubberwood is a crucial commercial timber in Southern Thailand. All processes in a rubberwood production depend on the knowledge and expertise of the technicians, especially the drying process. This research aims to develop an empirical model for drying kinetics in rubberwood. During the experiment, the temperature of the hot air and the average air flow velocity were kept at 80-100 °C and 1.75 m/s, respectively. The moisture content in the samples was determined less than 12% in the achievement of drying basis. The drying kinetic was simulated using an empirical solver. The experimental results illustrated that the moisture content was reduced whereas the drying temperature and time were increased. The coefficient of the moisture ratio between the empirical and the experimental model was tested with three statistical parameters, R-square (R²), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Chi-square (χ²) to predict the accuracy of the parameters. The experimental moisture ratio had a good fit with the empirical model. Additionally, the results indicated that the drying of rubberwood using the Henderson and Pabis model revealed the suitable level of agreement. The result presented an excellent estimation (R² = 0.9963) for the moisture movement compared to the other models. Therefore, the empirical results were valid and can be implemented in the future experiments.

Keywords: empirical models, rubberwood, moisture ratio, hot air drying

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Authors: A. Hol

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21^st century brought waves of business and industry eTransformations. The impact of change is also being seen in education. To identify the extent of this, scenario analysis methodology was utilised with the aim to assess business transformations across industry sectors ranging from craftsmanship, medicine, finance and manufacture to innovations and adoptions of new technologies and business models. Firstly, scenarios were drafted based on the current eTransformation models and its dimensions. Following this, eTransformation framework was utilised with the aim to derive the key eTransformation parameters, the essential characteristics that have enabled eTransformations across the sectors. Following this, identified key parameters were mapped to the transforming domain-education. The mapping assisted in deriving a cognitive eTransformation framework for education sector. The framework highlights the importance of context and the notion that education today needs not only to deliver content to students but it also needs to be able to meet the dynamically changing demands of specific student and industry groups. Furthermore, it pinpoints that for such processes to be supported, specific technology is required, so that instant, on demand and periodic feedback as well as flexible, dynamically expanding study content can be sought and received via multiple education mediums.

Keywords: education sector, business transformation, eTransformation model, cognitive model, cognitive systems, eTransformation

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Authors: Oladapo Tolulope Ibitoye

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Neural networks have become prominent and widely engaged in algorithmic-based machine learning networks. They are perfect in solving day-to-day issues to a certain extent. Neural networks are computing systems with several interconnected nodes. One of the numerous areas of application of neural networks is object detection. This is a prominent area due to the coronavirus disease pandemic and the post-pandemic phases. Wearing a face mask in public slows the spread of the virus, according to experts’ submission. This calls for the development of a reliable and effective model for detecting face masks on people's faces during compliance checks. The existing neural network models for facemask detection are characterized by their black-box nature and large dataset requirement. The highlighted challenges have compromised the performance of the existing models. The proposed model utilized Faster R-CNN Model on Inception V3 backbone to reduce system complexity and dataset requirement. The model was trained and validated with very few datasets and evaluation results shows an overall accuracy of 96% regardless of skin tone.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, face detection, face mask, masked faces

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Authors: Susan Diamond

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Machine Learning workloads have traditionally been run in high-performance computing (HPC) environments, where users log in to dedicated machines and utilize the attached GPUs to run training jobs on huge datasets. Training of large neural network models is very resource intensive, and even after exploiting parallelism and accelerators such as GPUs, a single training job can still take days. Consequently, the cost of hardware is a barrier to entry. Even when upfront cost is not a concern, the lead time to set up such an HPC environment takes months from acquiring hardware to set up the hardware with the right set of firmware, software installed and configured. Furthermore, scalability is hard to achieve in a rigid traditional lab environment. Therefore, it is slow to react to the dynamic change in the artificial intelligent industry. Watson Deep Learning as a service, a cloud-based deep learning platform that mitigates the long lead time and high upfront investment in hardware. It enables robust and scalable sharing of resources among the teams in an organization. It is designed for on-demand cloud environments. Providing a similar user experience in a multi-tenant cloud environment comes with its own unique challenges regarding fault tolerance, performance, and security. Watson Deep Learning as a service tackles these challenges and present a deep learning stack for the cloud environments in a secure, scalable and fault-tolerant manner. It supports a wide range of deep-learning frameworks such as Tensorflow, PyTorch, Caffe, Torch, Theano, and MXNet etc. These frameworks reduce the effort and skillset required to design, train, and use deep learning models. Deep Learning as a service is used at IBM by AI researchers in areas including machine translation, computer vision, and healthcare. 

Keywords: deep learning, machine learning, cognitive computing, model training

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Authors: Sedat Yayla, Mehmet Oruc, Shakhwan Yaseen

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Cavitation phenomena might rigorously impair machine parts such as pumps, propellers and impellers or devices as the pressure in the fluid declines under the liquid's saturation pressure. To evaluate the influence of cavitation, in this research two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) venturi models with variety of inlet pressure values, throat lengths and vapor fluid contents were applied. In this research three different vapor contents (0%, 5% 10%), four inlet pressures (2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 atm) and two venturi models were employed at different throat lengths ( 5, 10, 15 and 20 mm) for discovering the impact of each parameter on the cavitation number. It is uncovered that there is a positive correlation between pressure inlet and vapor fluid content and cavitation number. Furthermore, it is unveiled that velocity remains almost constant at the inlet pressures of 6, 8,10atm, nevertheless increasing the length of throat results in the substantial escalation in the velocity of the throat at inlet pressures of 2 and 4 atm. Furthermore, velocity and cavitation number were negatively correlated. The results of the cavitation number varied between 0.092 and 0.495 depending upon the velocity values of the throat.

Keywords: cavitation number, computational fluid dynamics, mixture of fluid, two-phase flow, velocity of throat

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Authors: V. Keim, J. Spachtholz, J. Hammer

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The importance of fibre reinforced plastics continually increases due to the excellent mechanical properties, low material and manufacturing costs combined with significant weight reduction. Today, components are usually designed and calculated numerically by using finite element methods (FEM) to avoid expensive laboratory tests. These programs are based on material models including material specific deformation characteristics. In this research project, material models for short glass fibre reinforced plastics are presented to simulate the visco-elasto-plastic deformation behaviour. Prior to modelling specimens of the material EMS Grivory HTV-5H1, consisting of a Polyphthalamide matrix reinforced by 50wt.-% of short glass fibres, are characterized experimentally in terms of the highly time dependent deformation behaviour of the matrix material. To minimize the experimental effort, the cyclic deformation behaviour under tensile and compressive loading (R = −1) is characterized by isothermal complex low cycle fatigue (CLCF) tests. Combining cycles under two strain amplitudes and strain rates within three orders of magnitude and relaxation intervals into one experiment the visco-elastic deformation is characterized. To identify visco-plastic deformation monotonous tensile tests either displacement controlled or strain controlled (CERT) are compared. All relevant modelling parameters for this complex superposition of simultaneously varying mechanical loadings are quantified by these experiments. Subsequently, two different material models are compared with respect to their accuracy describing the visco-elasto-plastic deformation behaviour. First, based on Chaboche an extended 12 parameter model (EVP-KV2) is used to model cyclic visco-elasto-plasticity at two time scales. The parameters of the model including a total separation of elastic and plastic deformation are obtained by computational optimization using an evolutionary algorithm based on a fitness function called genetic algorithm. Second, the 12 parameter visco-elasto-plastic material model by Launay is used. In detail, the model contains a different type of a flow function based on the definition of the visco-plastic deformation as a part of the overall deformation. The accuracy of the models is verified by corresponding experimental LCF testing.

Keywords: complex low cycle fatigue, material modelling, short glass fibre reinforced polyphthalamides, visco-elasto-plastic deformation

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Authors: John Adebayo Oloyhede

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This paper examines effect of financial liberalization on the stability of the demand for money function and its implication for exchange rate behaviour of three African countries. As the demand for money function is regarded as one of the two main building blocks of most exchange rate determination models, the other being purchasing power parity, its stability is required for the monetary models of exchange rate determination to hold. To what extent has the liberalisation policy of these countries, for instance liberalised interest rate, affected the demand for money function and what has been the consequence on the validity and relevance of floating exchange rate models? The study adopts the Autoregressive Instrumental Package (AIV) of multiple regression technique and followed the Almon Polynomial procedure with zero-end constraint. Data for the period 1986 to 2011 were drawn from three developing countries of Africa, namely: Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, which did not only start the liberalization and floating system almost at the same period but share similar and diverse economic and financial structures. Its findings show that the demand for money was a stable function of income and interest rate at home and abroad. Other factors such as exchange rate and foreign interest rate exerted some significant effect on domestic money demand. The short-run and long-run elasticity with respect to income, interest rates, expected inflation rate and exchange rate expectation are not greater than zero. This evidence conforms to some extent to the expected behaviour of the domestic money function and underscores its ability to serve as good building block or assumption of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. This will, therefore, assist appropriate monetary authorities in the design and implementation of further financial liberalization policy packages in developing countries.

Keywords: financial liberalisation, exchange rates, demand for money, developing economies

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Authors: Trupti Meher, Harihar Sahoo

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Premature menopause refers to the occurrence of menopause before the age of 40 years. Women who experience premature menopause either due to biological or induced reasons have a longer duration of exposure to severe symptoms and adverse health consequences when compared to those who undergo menopause at a later age, despite the fact that premature menopause has a profound effect on the health of women. This study attempted to determine the prevalence and predictors of premature menopause among women aged 25-39 years, using data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) conducted during 2015–16 in India. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were used to carry out the result. The results revealed that the prevalence of premature menopause in India was 3.7 percent. Out of which, 2.1 percent of women had experienced natural premature menopause, whereas 1.7 percent had premature surgical menopause. The prevalence of premature menopause was highest in the southern region of India. Further, results of the multivariate model indicated that rural women, women with higher parity, early age at childbearing and women with smoking habits were at a greater risk of premature menopause. A sizeable proportion of women in India are attaining menopause prematurely. Unless due attention is given to this matter, it will emerge as a major problem in India in the future. The study also emphasized the need for further research to enhance knowledge on the problems of premature menopausal women in different socio-cultural settings in India.

Keywords: India, natural menopause, premature menopause, surgical menopause

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Authors: Sanja Pfeifer, Nataša Šarlija, Marina Jeger, Ana Bilandžić

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The purpose of this study is to explore the different facets of growth among micro, small and medium-sized firms in Croatia and to analyze the differences between models designed for all micro, small and medium-sized firms and those in creative industries. Three growth prediction models were designed and tested using the growth of sales, employment and assets of the company as dependent variables. The key drivers of sales growth are: prudent use of cash, industry affiliation and higher share of intangible assets. Growth of assets depends on retained profits, internal and external sources of financing, as well as industry affiliation. Growth in employment is closely related to sources of financing, in particular, debt and it occurs less frequently than growth in sales and assets. The findings confirm the assumption that growth strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in creative industries have specific differences in comparison to SMEs in general. Interestingly, only 2.2% of growing enterprises achieve growth in employment, assets and sales simultaneously.

Keywords: creative industries, growth prediction model, growth determinants, growth measures

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Authors: Jiashu Shen

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Background: The abortion rate has increased significantly, which is harmful especially to adolescents, making repeat induced abortion (RIA) among adolescents a social problem. This study aims to investigate the associations of family support with sexual behavior and repeat induced abortion among Chinese adolescents Methods: This study based on a national hospital-based sample with 945 girls aged 15-19 who underwent induced abortion in 43 hospitals. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to estimated odds ratio for the risk factors. Results: Adolescences living with parents were less inclined to undergo RIA, especially if they were rural (adjusted odds ratio=0.48 95%CI 0.31-0.72) and local (adjusted odds ratio =0.39 95%=0.23-0.66). Those with parental financial support were likely to have less sexual partnersand take contraceptives more regularly. Those with higher self-perceived importance in family were more likely to take contraceptives during the first sexual intercourse in higher age, and with higher first abortion age and less sexual partners. Conclusion: In mainland China, living with parents, parental financial support, high self-perceived importance in family and adequate family sexuality communications may contribute to lower incidence of RIA.

Keywords: Chinese adolescent, family support, repeat induced abortion, sexual behavior

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Authors: Chang Soo Chon, Cheol Woong Ko, Han Sung Kim

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The aim of this study is to develop an anterior lumbar interbody fusion (ALIF) PEEK cage suitable for Korean people. In this study, CT images were obtained from Korean male (173cm, 71kg) and 3D Korean lumbar models were reconstructed based on the CT images to investigate anatomical characteristics. Major design parameters of anterior lumbar interbody fusion (ALIF) PEEK Cage were selected using the morphological measurement information of the Korean Lumbar models. Through finite element analysis and mechanical tests, the developed ALIF PEEK Cage prototype was compared with the Fidji Cage (Zimmer.Inc, USA) and it was found that the ALIF prototype showed similar and/or superior mechanical performance compared to the FidJi Cage. Also, clinical validation for the ALIF PEEK Cage prototype was carried out to check predictable troubles in surgical operations. Finally, it is considered that the convenience and stability of the prototype was clinically verified.

Keywords: inter-body anterior fusion, ALIF cage, PEEK, Korean lumbar, CT image, animal test

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Authors: Mina Jafari, Kobra Hamraee, Saied Hossein Hosseini

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The prediction of breast cancer disease is one of the challenges in medicine. In this paper we collected 528 records of women’s information who live in Kabul including demographic, life style, diet and pregnancy data. There are many classification algorithm in breast cancer prediction and tried to find the best model with most accurate result and lowest error rate. We evaluated some other common supervised algorithms in data mining to find the best model in prediction of breast cancer disease among afghan women living in Kabul regarding to momography result as target variable. For evaluating these algorithms we used Cross Validation which is an assured method for measuring the performance of models. After comparing error rate and accuracy of three models: Decision Tree, Naive Bays and Rule Induction, Decision Tree with accuracy of 94.06% and error rate of %15 is found the best model to predicting breast cancer disease based on the health care records.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer, probability, data mining

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Authors: Mergim Gasia, Bojan Milovanovica, Sanjin Gumbarevic

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Better energy performance of the building envelope is one of the most important aspects of energy savings if the goals set by the European Union are to be achieved in the future. Dynamic heat transfer simulations are being used for the calculation of building energy consumption because they give more realistic energy demands compared to the stationary calculations that do not take the building’s thermal mass into account. Software used for these dynamic simulation use methods that are based on the analytical models since numerical models are insufficient for longer periods. The analytical models used in this research fall in the category of the conduction transfer functions (CTFs). Two methods for calculating the CTFs covered by this research are the Laplace method and the State-Space method. The literature review showed that the main disadvantage of these methods is that they are inadequate for heavyweight façade elements and shorter time periods used for the calculation. The algorithms for both the Laplace and State-Space methods are implemented in Mathematica, and the results are compared to the results from EnergyPlus and TRNSYS since these software use similar algorithms for the calculation of the building’s energy demand. This research aims to check the efficiency of the Laplace and the State-Space method for calculating the building’s energy demand for heavyweight building elements and shorter sampling time, and it also gives the means for the improvement of the algorithms used by these methods. As the reference point for the boundary heat flux density, the finite difference method (FDM) is used. Even though the dynamic heat transfer simulations are superior to the calculation based on the stationary boundary conditions, they have their limitations and will give unsatisfactory results if not properly used.

Keywords: Laplace method, state-space method, conduction transfer functions, finite difference method

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Authors: Nawaporn Srisarankullawong

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This research is about the creating the design by the inspiration of the flowers, which were once planted in Suan Sunandha Palace. The researcher have conducted the research regarding the history of Suan Sunandha Palace and the flowers which have been planted in the palace’s garden, in order to use this research to create the new designs in the future. The objective are as follows; 1. To study the shape and the pattern of the flowers in Suan Sunandha Palace, in order to select a few of them as the model to create the new design. 2. In order to create the flower design from the flowers in Suan Sunandha Palace by using the current photograph of the flowers which were once used to be planted inside the palace and using adobe Illustrator and Adobe Photoshop programs to create the patterns and the model. The result of the research: From the research, the researcher had selected three types of flowers to crate the pattern model; they are Allamanda, Orchids and Flamingo Plant. The details of the flowers had been reduced in order to show the simplicity and create the pattern model to use them for models, so three flowers had created three pattern models and they had been developed into six patterns, using universal artist techniques, so the pattern created are modern and they can be used for further decoration.

Keywords: patterns design, Suan Sunandha Palace, pattern of the flowers, visual arts and design

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Authors: Erwin Stolz, Hannes Mayerl, Anja Waxenegger, Wolfgang Freidl

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Research has often found poverty associated with adverse health outcomes, but it is unclear which (interplay of) mechanisms actually translate low economic resources into poor physical health. The goal of this study was to assess the impact of educational, material, psychosocial and behavioural factors in explaining the poverty-health association in old age. We analysed 28,360 observations from 11,390 community-dwelling respondents (65+) from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2004-2013, 10 countries). We used multilevel growth curve models to assess the impact of combined income- and asset poverty risk on old age frailty index levels and trajectories. In total, 61.8% of the variation of poverty risk on frailty levels could be explained by direct and indirect effects, thereby highlighting the role of material and particularly psychosocial factors, such as perceived control and social isolation. We suggest strengthening social policy and public health efforts in order to fight poverty and its deleterious effects from early age on and to broaden the scope of interventions with regard to psychosocial factors.

Keywords: frailty, health inequality, old age, poverty

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Authors: Mehrdad Shahrbanozadeh, Gholam Abbas Barani, Saeed Shojaee

Abstract:

In this study, a finite element (Seep3D model) and an artificial neural network (ANN) model were developed to simulate flow through dam foundation. Seep3D model is capable of simulating three-dimensional flow through a heterogeneous and anisotropic, saturated and unsaturated porous media. Flow through the Shahid Abbaspour dam foundation has been used as a case study. The FEM with 24960 triangular elements and 28707 nodes applied to model flow through foundation of this dam. The FEM being made denser in the neighborhood of the curtain screen. The ANN model developed for Shahid Abbaspour dam is a feedforward four layer network employing the sigmoid function as an activator and the back-propagation algorithm for the network learning. The water level elevations of the upstream and downstream of the dam have been used as input variables and the piezometric heads as the target outputs in the ANN model. The two models are calibrated and verified using the Shahid Abbaspour’s dam piezometric data. Results of the models were compared with those measured by the piezometers which are in good agreement. The model results also revealed that the ANN model performed as good as and in some cases better than the FEM.

Keywords: seepage, dam foundation, finite element method, neural network, seep 3D model

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Authors: Ezgi Nevruz, Kasirga Yildirak, Ashis SenGupta

Abstract:

Comparing or ranking risks is the main motivating factor behind the human trait of making choices. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a preference theory approach that evaluates perception and bias in decision making under risk and uncertainty. We aim to investigate the aggregate claims of different risk classes in terms of their comparability and amenability to ordering when the impact of risk perception is considered. For this aim, we prioritize the aggregate claims taken as actuarial risks by using various stochastic ordering relations. In order to prioritize actuarial risks, we use stochastic relations such as stochastic dominance and stop-loss dominance that are proposed in the frame of partial order theory. We take into account the dependency of the individual claims exposed to similar environmental risks. At first, we modify the zero-utility premium principle in order to obtain a solution for the stop-loss premium under CPT. Then, we propose a stochastic stop-loss dominance of the aggregate claims and find a relation between the stop-loss dominance and the first-order stochastic dominance under the dependence assumption by using properties of the familiar as well as some emerging multivariate claim distributions.

Keywords: cumulative prospect theory, partial order theory, risk perception, stochastic dominance, stop-loss dominance

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Authors: Tiago do Carmo Nogueira, Cássio Dener Noronha Vinhal, Gélson da Cruz Júnior, Matheus Rudolfo Diedrich Ullmann

Abstract:

Generating automatic image descriptions through natural language is a challenging task. Image captioning is a task that consistently describes an image by combining computer vision and natural language processing techniques. To accomplish this task, cutting-edge models use encoder-decoder structures. Thus, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are used to extract the characteristics of the images, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) generate the descriptive sentences of the images. However, cutting-edge approaches still suffer from problems of generating incorrect captions and accumulating errors in the decoders. To solve this problem, we propose a model based on the encoder-decoder structure, introducing a module that generates the weights according to the importance of the word to form the sentence, using the part-of-speech (PoS). Thus, the results demonstrate that our model surpasses state-of-the-art models.

Keywords: gated recurrent units, caption generation, convolutional neural network, part-of-speech

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Authors: Thota Sai Prakash, B. Yaswanth, Jhade Bhuvaneswar, Marreddy Divakar Reddy, Shyam Ji Gupta

Abstract:

Across the globe, there are a lot of chronic diseases, and heart disease stands out as one of the most perilous. Sadly, many lives are lost to this condition, even though early intervention could prevent such tragedies. However, identifying heart disease in its initial stages is not easy. To address this challenge, we propose an automated system aimed at predicting the presence of heart disease using advanced techniques. By doing so, we hope to empower individuals with the knowledge needed to take proactive measures against this potentially fatal illness. Our approach towards this problem involves meticulous data preprocessing and the development of predictive models utilizing classification algorithms such as Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree, and Random Forest. We assess the efficiency of every model based on metrics like accuracy, ensuring that we select the most reliable option. Additionally, we conduct thorough data analysis to reveal the importance of different attributes. Among the models considered, Random Forest emerges as the standout performer with an accuracy rate of 96.04% in our study.

Keywords: support vector machines, decision tree, random forest

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Authors: Deepika Christopher, Garima Anand

Abstract:

To determine the best model for churn prediction in the telecom industry, this paper compares 11 machine learning algorithms, namely Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Decision Tree, XGBoost, LightGBM, Cat Boost, AdaBoost, Extra Trees, Deep Neural Network, and Hybrid Model (MLPClassifier). It also aims to pinpoint the top three factors that lead to customer churn and conducts customer segmentation to identify vulnerable groups. According to the data, the Logistic Regression model performs the best, with an F1 score of 0.6215, 81.76% accuracy, 68.95% precision, and 56.57% recall. The top three attributes that cause churn are found to be tenure, Internet Service Fiber optic, and Internet Service DSL; conversely, the top three models in this article that perform the best are Logistic Regression, Deep Neural Network, and AdaBoost. The K means algorithm is applied to establish and analyze four different customer clusters. This study has effectively identified customers that are at risk of churn and may be utilized to develop and execute strategies that lower customer attrition.

Keywords: attrition, retention, predictive modeling, customer segmentation, telecommunications

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Authors: A. Bayle, F. Plouraboué

Abstract:

Water Distribution Network (WDN) still suffers from a lack of knowledge about fast pressure transient events prediction, although the latter may considerably impact their durability. Accidental or planned operating activities indeed give rise to complex pressure interactions and may drastically modified the local pressure value generating leaks and, in rare cases, pipe’s break. In this context, a numerical predictive analysis is conducted to prevent such event and optimize network management. A couple of Python/FORTRAN 90, home-made software, has been developed using Method Of Characteristic (MOC) solving for water-hammer equations. The solver is validated by direct comparison with theoretical and experimental measurement in simple configurations whilst afterward extended to network analysis. The algorithm's most costly steps are designed for parallel computation. A various set of boundary conditions and energetic losses models are considered for the network simulations. The results are analyzed in both real and frequencies domain and provide crucial information on the pressure distribution behavior within the network.

Keywords: energetic losses models, method of characteristic, numerical predictive analysis, water distribution network, water hammer

Procedia PDF Downloads 214