Search results for: computable general equilibrium model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 21327

Search results for: computable general equilibrium model

19827 Deep Foundations: Analysis of the Lateral Response of Closed Ended Steel Tubular Piles Embedded in Sandy Soil Using P-Y Curves

Authors: Ameer A. Jebur, William Atherton, Rafid M. Alkhaddar, Edward Loffill

Abstract:

Understanding the behaviour of the piles under the action of the independent lateral loads and the precise prediction of the capacity of piles subjected to different lateral loads are vital topics in foundation design and analysis. Moreover, the laterally loaded behaviour of deep foundations penetrated in cohesive and non-cohesive soils is basically analysed by the Winkler Model (beam on elastic foundation), in which the interaction between the pile embedded depth and contacted soil is simulated by nonlinear p–y curves. The presence of many approaches to interpret the behaviour of soil-pile interaction has resulted in numerous outputs and indicates that no general approach has yet been adopted. The current study presents the result of numerical modelling of the behaviour of steel tubular piles (25.4mm) outside diameter with various embedment depth-to-diameter ratios (L/d) embedded in a sand calibrated chamber of known relative density. The study revealed that the shear strength parameters of the sand specimens and the (L/d) ratios are the most significant factor influencing the response of the pile and its capacity while taking into consideration the complex interaction between the pile and soil. Good agreement has been achieved when comparing the application of this modelling approach with experimental physical modelling carried out by another researcher.

Keywords: deep foundations, slenderness ratio, soil-pile interaction, winkler model (beam on elastic foundation), non-cohesive soil

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19826 An Efficient Motion Recognition System Based on LMA Technique and a Discrete Hidden Markov Model

Authors: Insaf Ajili, Malik Mallem, Jean-Yves Didier

Abstract:

Human motion recognition has been extensively increased in recent years due to its importance in a wide range of applications, such as human-computer interaction, intelligent surveillance, augmented reality, content-based video compression and retrieval, etc. However, it is still regarded as a challenging task especially in realistic scenarios. It can be seen as a general machine learning problem which requires an effective human motion representation and an efficient learning method. In this work, we introduce a descriptor based on Laban Movement Analysis technique, a formal and universal language for human movement, to capture both quantitative and qualitative aspects of movement. We use Discrete Hidden Markov Model (DHMM) for training and classification motions. We improve the classification algorithm by proposing two DHMMs for each motion class to process the motion sequence in two different directions, forward and backward. Such modification allows avoiding the misclassification that can happen when recognizing similar motions. Two experiments are conducted. In the first one, we evaluate our method on a public dataset, the Microsoft Research Cambridge-12 Kinect gesture data set (MSRC-12) which is a widely used dataset for evaluating action/gesture recognition methods. In the second experiment, we build a dataset composed of 10 gestures(Introduce yourself, waving, Dance, move, turn left, turn right, stop, sit down, increase velocity, decrease velocity) performed by 20 persons. The evaluation of the system includes testing the efficiency of our descriptor vector based on LMA with basic DHMM method and comparing the recognition results of the modified DHMM with the original one. Experiment results demonstrate that our method outperforms most of existing methods that used the MSRC-12 dataset, and a near perfect classification rate in our dataset.

Keywords: human motion recognition, motion representation, Laban Movement Analysis, Discrete Hidden Markov Model

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19825 Bi-objective Network Optimization in Disaster Relief Logistics

Authors: Katharina Eberhardt, Florian Klaus Kaiser, Frank Schultmann

Abstract:

Last-mile distribution is one of the most critical parts of a disaster relief operation. Various uncertainties, such as infrastructure conditions, resource availability, and fluctuating beneficiary demand, render last-mile distribution challenging in disaster relief operations. The need to balance critical performance criteria like response time, meeting demand and cost-effectiveness further complicates the task. The occurrence of disasters cannot be controlled, and the magnitude is often challenging to assess. In summary, these uncertainties create a need for additional flexibility, agility, and preparedness in logistics operations. As a result, strategic planning and efficient network design are critical for an effective and efficient response. Furthermore, the increasing frequency of disasters and the rising cost of logistical operations amplify the need to provide robust and resilient solutions in this area. Therefore, we formulate a scenario-based bi-objective optimization model that integrates pre-positioning, allocation, and distribution of relief supplies extending the general form of a covering location problem. The proposed model aims to minimize underlying logistics costs while maximizing demand coverage. Using a set of disruption scenarios, the model allows decision-makers to identify optimal network solutions to address the risk of disruptions. We provide an empirical case study of the public authorities’ emergency food storage strategy in Germany to illustrate the potential applicability of the model and provide implications for decision-makers in a real-world setting. Also, we conduct a sensitivity analysis focusing on the impact of varying stockpile capacities, single-site outages, and limited transportation capacities on the objective value. The results show that the stockpiling strategy needs to be consistent with the optimal number of depots and inventory based on minimizing costs and maximizing demand satisfaction. The strategy has the potential for optimization, as network coverage is insufficient and relies on very high transportation and personnel capacity levels. As such, the model provides decision support for public authorities to determine an efficient stockpiling strategy and distribution network and provides recommendations for increased resilience. However, certain factors have yet to be considered in this study and should be addressed in future works, such as additional network constraints and heuristic algorithms.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, bi-objective optimization, pre-positioning, last mile distribution, decision support, disaster relief networks

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19824 The Logistics Collaboration in Supply Chain of Orchid Industry in Thailand

Authors: Chattrarat Hotrawaisaya

Abstract:

This research aims to formulate the logistics collaborative model which is the management tool for orchid flower exporter. The researchers study logistics activities in orchid supply chain that stakeholders can collaborate and develop, including demand forecasting, inventory management, warehouse and storage, order-processing, and transportation management. The research also explores logistics collaboration implementation into orchid’s stakeholders. The researcher collected data before implementation and after model implementation. Consequently, the costs and efficiency were calculated and compared between pre and post period of implementation. The research found that the results of applying the logistics collaborative model to orchid exporter reduces inventory cost and transport cost. The model also improves forecasting accuracy, and synchronizes supply chain of exporter. This research paper contributes the uniqueness logistics collaborative model which value to orchid industry in Thailand. The orchid exporters may use this model as their management tool which aims in competitive advantage.

Keywords: logistics, orchid, supply chain, collaboration

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19823 Hydro-Gravimetric Ann Model for Prediction of Groundwater Level

Authors: Jayanta Kumar Ghosh, Swastik Sunil Goriwale, Himangshu Sarkar

Abstract:

Groundwater is one of the most valuable natural resources that society consumes for its domestic, industrial, and agricultural water supply. Its bulk and indiscriminate consumption affects the groundwater resource. Often, it has been found that the groundwater recharge rate is much lower than its demand. Thus, to maintain water and food security, it is necessary to monitor and management of groundwater storage. However, it is challenging to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) by making use of existing hydrological models. To overcome the difficulties, machine learning (ML) models are being introduced for the evaluation of groundwater level (GWL). Thus, the objective of this research work is to develop an ML-based model for the prediction of GWL. This objective has been realized through the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) model based on hydro-gravimetry. The model has been developed using training samples from field observations spread over 8 months. The developed model has been tested for the prediction of GWL in an observation well. The root means square error (RMSE) for the test samples has been found to be 0.390 meters. Thus, it can be concluded that the hydro-gravimetric-based ANN model can be used for the prediction of GWL. However, to improve the accuracy, more hydro-gravimetric parameter/s may be considered and tested in future.

Keywords: machine learning, hydro-gravimetry, ground water level, predictive model

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19822 The Effect of the Organization of Mental Health Care on General Practitioners’ Prescription Behavior of Psychotropics for Adolescents in Belgium

Authors: Ellen Lagast, Melissa Ceuterick, Mark Leys

Abstract:

Although adolescence is a stressful period with an increased risk for mental illnesses such as anxiety and depression, little in-depth knowledge is available on the determinants of the use of psychotropic drugs (BZD/SSRIs) and the effects. A qualitative research with adolescents in Flanders was performed. Based on indepth interviews, the interviewees indicate feelings of ambiguity towards their medication use because on the one hand the medication helps to manage their mental vulnerability and disrupted lives, but on the other hand they experience a loss of control of their self and their environment. Undesired side-effects and stigma led to a negative pharmaceutical self. The interviewed youngsters also express dissatisfaction about the prescription behavior with regard to psychotropic drugs of their general practitioner (GP). They wished to have received more information about alternative non-pharmaceutical treatment options. Notwithstanding these comments, the majority of the interviewees maintained trust in their GP to act in their best interest. This paper will relate the prescription behavior in primary care to the organization of mental health care to better understand the “phamaceuticalization” and medicalization of mental health problems in Belgium. Belgium implemented fundamental mental health care reforms to collaborate, to integrate care and to optimize continuity of care. Children and adolescents still are confronted with long waiting lists to access (non-medicalized) mental health services. This access to mental health care partly explains general practitioners’ prescription behavior of psychotropics. Moreover, multidisciplinary practices have not pervaded primary health care yet. Medicalization and pharmaceuticalization of mental health vulnerabilities of youth are both a structural and cultural problem.

Keywords: adolescents, antidepressants, benzodiazepines, mental health system, psychotropic drugs

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19821 Study and Analysis of a Susceptible Infective Susceptible Mathematical Model with Density Dependent Migration

Authors: Jitendra Singh, Vivek Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper, a susceptible infective susceptible mathematical model is proposed and analyzed where the migration of human population is given by migration function. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted by direct contact of susceptible and infective populations with constant contact rate. The equilibria and their stability are studied by using the stability theory of ordinary differential equations and computer simulation. The model analysis shows that the spread of infectious disease increases when human population immigration increases in the habitat but it decreases if emigration increases.

Keywords: SIS (Susceptible Infective Susceptible) model, migration function, susceptible, stability

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19820 Determination of the Axial-Vector from an Extended Linear Sigma Model

Authors: Tarek Sayed Taha Ali

Abstract:

The dependence of the axial-vector coupling constant gA on the quark masses has been investigated in the frame work of the extended linear sigma model. The field equations have been solved in the mean-field approximation. Our study shows a better fitting to the experimental data compared with the existing models.

Keywords: extended linear sigma model, nucleon properties, axial coupling constant, physic

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19819 Brachypodium: A Model Genus to Study Grass Genome Organisation at the Cytomolecular Level

Authors: R. Hasterok, A. Betekhtin, N. Borowska, A. Braszewska-Zalewska, E. Breda, K. Chwialkowska, R. Gorkiewicz, D. Idziak, J. Kwasniewska, M. Kwasniewski, D. Siwinska, A. Wiszynska, E. Wolny

Abstract:

In contrast to animals, the organisation of plant genomes at the cytomolecular level is still relatively poorly studied and understood. However, the Brachypodium genus in general and B. distachyon in particular represent exceptionally good model systems for such study. This is due not only to their highly desirable ‘model’ biological features, such as small nuclear genome, low chromosome number and complex phylogenetic relations, but also to the rapidly and continuously growing repertoire of experimental tools, such as large collections of accessions, WGS information, large insert (BAC) libraries of genomic DNA, etc. Advanced cytomolecular techniques, such as fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) with evermore sophisticated probes, empowered by cutting-edge microscope and digital image acquisition and processing systems, offer unprecedented insight into chromatin organisation at various phases of the cell cycle. A good example is chromosome painting which uses pools of chromosome-specific BAC clones, and enables the tracking of individual chromosomes not only during cell division but also during interphase. This presentation outlines the present status of molecular cytogenetic analyses of plant genome structure, dynamics and evolution using B. distachyon and some of its relatives. The current projects focus on important scientific questions, such as: What mechanisms shape the karyotypes? Is the distribution of individual chromosomes within an interphase nucleus determined? Are there hot spots of structural rearrangement in Brachypodium chromosomes? Which epigenetic processes play a crucial role in B. distachyon embryo development and selective silencing of rRNA genes in Brachypodium allopolyploids? The authors acknowledge financial support from the Polish National Science Centre (grants no. 2012/04/A/NZ3/00572 and 2011/01/B/NZ3/00177)

Keywords: Brachypodium, B. distachyon, chromosome, FISH, molecular cytogenetics, nucleus, plant genome organisation

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19818 The Importance of Effectively Communicating Science and Economics to the Public (Layman)

Authors: Puran Prasad Adhikari

Abstract:

Considering the fact that when we are able to communicate science and economics effectively to broader nonprofessional audiences, it promotes a great understanding of its wider relevance to society and encourages more informed and confident decision-making at all levels, from the government to communities to individuals. The study has been conducted. This study is aimed to examine the understanding of the general public of economics and the basic sciences functioning in our surroundings in our day-to-day life. Data was gathered through historical documents related to science communication and through interviews with the public. The statistical result shows that there is a great lack of knowledge in the general public about the basic sciences and how economics impacts their life daily. The difficulties faced by the public include the view that these things can only be understood by professionals and it is beyond their capacity to grasp these concepts, the use of technical words and jargon by the professionals, and the lack of the medium to understand even if they want to learn it. The result further indicates that the lack of this basic knowledge also leads to bad decision-making, which causes frustration and anxiety. The result shows the great correlation between the confidence level of a person and the knowledge of basic science and economics. The factor behind this was the right decision-making capacity of the individual, which boosts the happy hormones of the individual. So indirectly, we found the correlation between mental health and the understanding of science and economics. The public wants to have a basic understanding and concepts of these topics, but they complain that there is no effective medium through which they can gain the understanding; the medium which is available is full of jargon and technical terms directed to professional and highly educated which they consider is beyond their reach. So, communicating the basic concepts to the general public is of great importance in the 21st century for the overall progress of society. The professional one can make this possible by considering the level of public understanding and making the communication and the programs comprehensible to the layman. Various means can be used to make this successful and effective, e.g., cartoon guide books, Q&A with the layman, animations use, and daily life examples. This study’s implication will help educators of high-level institutions and policymakers improve general public [layman] access to comprehensible knowledge.

Keywords: layman, comprehensible, decision making, frustration, confidence

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19817 A Comparison of Smoothing Spline Method and Penalized Spline Regression Method Based on Nonparametric Regression Model

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

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19816 Prismatic Bifurcation Study of a Functionally Graded Dielectric Elastomeric Tube Using Linearized Incremental Theory of Deformations

Authors: Sanjeet Patra, Soham Roychowdhury

Abstract:

In recent times, functionally graded dielectric elastomer (FGDE) has gained significant attention within the realm of soft actuation due to its dual capacity to exert highly localized stresses while maintaining its compliant characteristics on application of electro-mechanical loading. Nevertheless, the full potential of dielectric elastomer (DE) has not been fully explored due to their susceptibility to instabilities when subjected to electro-mechanical loads. As a result, study and analysis of such instabilities becomes crucial for the design and realization of dielectric actuators. Prismatic bifurcation is a type of instability that has been recognized in a DE tube. Though several studies have reported on the analysis for prismatic bifurcation in an isotropic DE tube, there is an insufficiency in studies related to prismatic bifurcation of FGDE tubes. Therefore, this paper aims to determine the onset of prismatic bifurcations on an incompressible FGDE tube when subjected to electrical loading across the thickness of the tube and internal pressurization. The analysis has been conducted by imposing two axial boundary conditions on the tube, specifically axially free ends and axially clamped ends. Additionally, the rigidity modulus of the tube has been linearly graded in the direction of thickness where the inner surface of the tube has a lower stiffness than the outer surface. The static equilibrium equations for deformation of the axisymmetric tube are derived and solved using numerical technique. The condition for prismatic bifurcation of the axisymmetric static equilibrium solutions has been obtained by using the linearized incremental constitutive equations. Two modes of bifurcations, corresponding to two different non-circular cross-sectional geometries, have been explored in this study. The outcomes reveal that the FGDE tubes experiences prismatic bifurcation before the Hessian criterion of failure is satisfied. It is observed that the lower mode of bifurcation can be triggered at a lower critical voltage as compared to the higher mode of bifurcation. Furthermore, the tubes with larger stiffness gradient require higher critical voltages for triggering the bifurcation. Moreover, with the increase in stiffness gradient, a linear variation of the critical voltage is observed with the thickness of the tube. It has been found that on applying internal pressure to a tube with low thickness, the tube becomes less susceptible to bifurcations. A thicker tube with axially free end is found to be more stable than the axially clamped end tube at higher mode of bifurcation.

Keywords: critical voltage, functionally graded dielectric elastomer, linearized incremental approach, modulus of rigidity, prismatic bifurcation

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19815 Topology Optimization of Heat Exchanger Manifolds for Aircraft

Authors: Hanjong Kim, Changwan Han, Seonghun Park

Abstract:

Heat exchanger manifolds in aircraft play an important role in evenly distributing the fluid entering through the inlet to the heat transfer unit. In order to achieve this requirement, the manifold should be designed to have a light weight by withstanding high internal pressure. Therefore, this study aims at minimizing the weight of the heat exchanger manifold through topology optimization. For topology optimization, the initial design space was created with the inner surface extracted from the currently used manifold model and with the outer surface having a dimension of 243.42 mm of X 74.09 mm X 65 mm. This design space solid model was transformed into a finite element model with a maximum tetrahedron mesh size of 2 mm using ANSYS Workbench. Then, topology optimization was performed under the boundary conditions of an internal pressure of 5.5 MPa and the fixed support for rectangular inlet boundaries by SIMULIA TOSCA. This topology optimization produced the minimized finial volume of the manifold (i.e., 7.3% of the initial volume) based on the given constraints (i.e., 6% of the initial volume) and the objective function (i.e., maximizing manifold stiffness). Weight of the optimized model was 6.7% lighter than the currently used manifold, but after smoothing the topology optimized model, this difference would be bigger. The current optimized model has uneven thickness and skeleton-shaped outer surface to reduce stress concentration. We are currently simplifying the optimized model shape with spline interpolations by reflecting the design characteristics in thickness and skeletal structures from the optimized model. This simplified model will be validated again by calculating both stress distributions and weight reduction and then the validated model will be manufactured using 3D printing processes.

Keywords: topology optimization, manifold, heat exchanger, 3D printing

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19814 Rheological Modeling for Shape-Memory Thermoplastic Polymers

Authors: H. Hosseini, B. V. Berdyshev, I. Iskopintsev

Abstract:

This paper presents a rheological model for producing shape-memory thermoplastic polymers. Shape-memory occurs as a result of internal rearrangement of the structural elements of a polymer. A non-linear viscoelastic model was developed that allows qualitative and quantitative prediction of the stress-strain behavior of shape-memory polymers during heating. This research was done to develop a technique to determine the maximum possible change in size of heat-shrinkable products during heating. The rheological model used in this work was particularly suitable for defining process parameters and constructive parameters of the processing equipment.

Keywords: elastic deformation, heating, shape-memory polymers, stress-strain behavior, viscoelastic model

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19813 3-D Numerical Model for Wave-Induced Seabed Response around an Offshore Pipeline

Authors: Zuodong Liang, Dong-Sheng Jeng

Abstract:

Seabed instability around an offshore pipeline is one of key factors that need to be considered in the design of offshore infrastructures. Unlike previous investigations, a three-dimensional numerical model for the wave-induced soil response around an offshore pipeline is proposed in this paper. The numerical model was first validated with 2-D experimental data available in the literature. Then, a parametric study will be carried out to examine the effects of wave, seabed characteristics and confirmation of pipeline. Numerical examples demonstrate significant influence of wave obliquity on the wave-induced pore pressures and the resultant seabed liquefaction around the pipeline, which cannot be observed in 2-D numerical simulation.

Keywords: pore pressure, 3D wave model, seabed liquefaction, pipeline

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19812 Research on the Application of Renewability in the Construction Model of Zhejiang Rural Revitalization

Authors: Zheng Junchao, Wang Zhu

Abstract:

With the advancement of China's urbanization process, the Chinese government has put forward the strategy of rural revitalization which is aiming at realizing the comprehensive integration of urban and rural areas and the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas. The path of rural revitalization in Zhejiang province put forward a typical model from four dimensions: suburban area, plain, island and mountain area. Research methods include on-the-spot investigation, visiting a number of successful demonstration villages in Zhejiang and interviewing village officials. Based on the location conditions, resource endowments, industrial forms and development foundations of Zhejiang Province, this paper introduces in detail the model of rural revitalization in Zhejiang Province and the challenges it encounters, as well as the role of building construction. The rural development model of Zhejiang province makes the rural culture flourish. Taking the construction of rural scenic spots as the carrier, the rural culture, and natural landscape are constantly improved. It provides a model and template for the country's rural revitalization. The promotion of Zhejiang rural revitalization model will improve the current rural landscape, living standard and industrial structure, which will narrow the urban-rural gap greatly.

Keywords: comprehensive rural revitalization, Zhejiang model, reproducible, comprehensive integration

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19811 Assessment of Impact of Urbanization in High Mountain Urban Watersheds

Authors: D. M. Rey, V. Delgado, J. Zambrano Nájera

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Increases in urbanization during XX century, has produced changes in natural dynamics of the basins, which has resulted in increases in runoff volumes, peak flows and flow velocities, that in turn increases flood risk. Higher runoff volumes decrease sewerage networks hydraulic capacity and can cause its failure. This in turn generates increasingly recurrent floods causing mobility problems and general economic detriment in the cities. In Latin America, especially Colombia, this is a major problem because urban population at late XX century was more than 70% is in urban areas increasing approximately in 790% in 1940-1990 period. Besides, high slopes product of Andean topography and high precipitation typical of tropical climates increases velocities and volumes even more, causing stopping of cities during storms. Thus, it becomes very important to know hydrological behavior of Andean Urban Watersheds. This research aims to determine the impact of urbanization in high sloped urban watersheds in its hydrology. To this end, it will be used as study area experimental urban watershed named Palogrande-San Luis watershed, located in the city of Manizales, Colombia. Manizales is a city in central western Colombia, located in Colombian Central Mountain Range (part of Los Andes Mountains) with an abrupt topography (average altitude is 2.153 m). The climate in Manizales is quite uniform, but due to its high altitude it presents high precipitations (1.545 mm/year average) with high humidity (83% average). It was applied HEC-HMS Hydrologic model on the watershed. The inputs to the model were derived from Geographic Information Systems (GIS) theme layers of the Instituto de Estudios Ambientales –IDEA of Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales (Institute of Environmental Studies) and aerial photography taken for the research in conjunction with available literature and look up tables. Rainfall data from a network of 4 rain gages and historical stream flow data were used to calibrate and validate runoff depth using the hydrologic model. Manual calibration was made, and the simulation results show that the model selected is able to characterize the runoff response of the watershed due to land use for urbanization in high mountain watersheds.

Keywords: Andean watersheds modelling, high mountain urban hydrology, urban planning, hydrologic modelling

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19810 Optimization Model for Support Decision for Maximizing Production of Mixed Fruit Tree Farms

Authors: Andrés I. Ávila, Patricia Aros, César San Martín, Elizabeth Kehr, Yovana Leal

Abstract:

We consider a linear programming model to help farmers to decide if it is convinient to choose among three kinds of export fruits for their future investment. We consider area, investment, water, productivitiy minimal unit, and harvest restrictions and a monthly based model to compute the average income in five years. Also, conditions on the field as area, water availability and initia investment are required. Using the Chilean costs and dollar-peso exchange rate, we can simulate several scenarios to understand the possible risks associated to this market.

Keywords: mixed integer problem, fruit production, support decision model, fruit tree farms

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19809 The Winning Possibility of Female Candidate in Korea

Authors: Minjeoung Kim

Abstract:

The majority of Korean female members of parliament(MPs) had been elected from the proportional representation till the 19th assemblies but in the 20th general election women MPs of the district representation is slightly more than women MPs of the proportional representation. The chance of women candidates to win is not as low as we assume. Therefore this study aims to reveal which factors influence the election of women candidates, other factors except the political party, because the effect of political party is already well known. Gangnam Eul is selected because female candidate was elected in spite of the low percentage of vote won by her political party. According to the survey, the female candidate was elected thanks to her policies and election pledges. Therefore, women candidates can be elected when they are nominated as candidates by their party in a safe constituency but also they can be elected with their good policies and election pledges in an unsafe constituency. And also the degree of the education, the age and the profession of voters influenced the support of female candidate.

Keywords: women candidates, 20th general election, winning in the district representation, policies and election pledges

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19808 A New Model for Production Forecasting in ERP

Authors: S. F. Wong, W. I. Ho, B. Lin, Q. Huang

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ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.

Keywords: ERP, grey system, LSSVM, production forecasting

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19807 Constitutive Model for Analysis of Long-Term Municipal Solid Waste Landfill Settlement

Authors: Irena Basaric Ikodinovic, Dragoslav Rakic, Mirjana Vukicevic, Sanja Jockovic, Jovana Jankovic Pantic

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Large long-term settlement occurs at the municipal solid waste landfills over an extended period of time which may lead to breakage of the geomembrane, damage of the cover systems, other protective systems or facilities constructed on top of a landfill. Also, municipal solid waste is an extremely heterogeneous material and its properties vary over location and time within a landfill. These material characteristics require the formulation of a new constitutive model to predict the long-term settlement of municipal solid waste. The paper presents a new constitutive model which is formulated to describe the mechanical behavior of municipal solid waste. Model is based on Modified Cam Clay model and the critical state soil mechanics framework incorporating time-dependent components: mechanical creep and biodegradation of municipal solid waste. The formulated constitutive model is optimized and defined with eight input parameters: five Modified Cam Clay parameters, one parameter for mechanical creep and two parameters for biodegradation of municipal solid waste. Thereafter, the constitutive model is implemented in the software suite for finite element analysis (ABAQUS) and numerical analysis of the experimental landfill settlement is performed. The proposed model predicts the total settlement which is in good agreement with field measured settlement at the experimental landfill.

Keywords: constitutive model, finite element analysis, municipal solid waste, settlement

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19806 Techno-Economic Optimization and Evaluation of an Integrated Industrial Scale NMC811 Cathode Active Material Manufacturing Process

Authors: Usama Mohamed, Sam Booth, Aliysn J. Nedoma

Abstract:

As part of the transition to electric vehicles, there has been a recent increase in demand for battery manufacturing. Cathodes typically account for approximately 50% of the total lithium-ion battery cell cost and are a pivotal factor in determining the viability of new industrial infrastructure. Cathodes which offer lower costs whilst maintaining or increasing performance, such as nickel-rich layered cathodes, have a significant competitive advantage when scaling up the manufacturing process. This project evaluates the techno-economic value proposition of an integrated industrial scale cathode active material (CAM) production process, closing the mass and energy balances, and optimizing the operation conditions using a sensitivity analysis. This is done by developing a process model of a co-precipitation synthesis route using Aspen Plus software and validated based on experimental data. The mechanism chemistry and equilibrium conditions were established based on previous literature and HSC-Chemistry software. This is then followed by integrating the energy streams, adding waste recovery and treatment processes, as well as testing the effect of key parameters (temperature, pH, reaction time, etc.) on CAM production yield and emissions. Finally, an economic analysis estimating the fixed and variable costs (including capital expenditure, labor costs, raw materials, etc.) to calculate the cost of CAM ($/kg and $/kWh), total plant cost ($) and net present value (NPV). This work sets the foundational blueprint for future research into sustainable industrial scale processes for CAM manufacturing.

Keywords: cathodes, industrial production, nickel-rich layered cathodes, process modelling, techno-economic analysis

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19805 Influence of Confinement on Phase Behavior in Unconventional Gas Condensate Reservoirs

Authors: Szymon Kuczynski

Abstract:

Poland is characterized by the presence of numerous sedimentary basins and hydrocarbon provinces. Since 2006 exploration for hydrocarbons in Poland become gradually more focus on new unconventional targets, particularly on the shale gas potential of the Upper Ordovician and Lower Silurian in the Baltic-Podlasie-Lublin Basin. The first forecast prepared by US Energy Information Administration in 2011 indicated to 5.3 Tcm of natural gas. In 2012, Polish Geological Institute presented its own forecast which estimated maximum reserves on 1.92 Tcm. The difference in the estimates was caused by problems with calculations of the initial amount of adsorbed, as well as free, gas trapped in shale rocks (GIIP - Gas Initially in Place). This value is dependent from sorption capacity, gas saturation and mutual interactions between gas, water, and rock. Determination of the reservoir type in the initial exploration phase brings essential knowledge, which has an impact on decisions related to the production. The study of porosity impact for phase envelope shift eliminates errors and improves production profitability. Confinement phenomenon affects flow characteristics, fluid properties, and phase equilibrium. The thermodynamic behavior of confined fluids in porous media is subject to the basic considerations for industrial applications such as hydrocarbons production. In particular the knowledge of the phase equilibrium and the critical properties of the contained fluid is essential for the design and optimization of such process. In pores with a small diameter (nanopores), the effect of the wall interaction with the fluid particles becomes significant and occurs in shale formations. Nano pore size is similar to the fluid particles’ diameter and the area of particles which flow without interaction with pore wall is almost equal to the area where this phenomenon occurs. The molecular simulation studies have shown an effect of confinement to the pseudo critical properties. Therefore, the critical parameters pressure and temperature and the flow characteristics of hydrocarbons in terms of nano-scale are under the strong influence of fluid particles with the pore wall. It can be concluded that the impact of a single pore size is crucial when it comes to the nanoscale because there is possible the above-described effect. Nano- porosity makes it difficult to predict the flow of reservoir fluid. Research are conducted to explain the mechanisms of fluid flow in the nanopores and gas extraction from porous media by desorption.

Keywords: adsorption, capillary condensation, phase envelope, nanopores, unconventional natural gas

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19804 Journal Bearing with Controllable Radial Clearance, Design and Analysis

Authors: Majid Rashidi, Shahrbanoo Farkhondeh Biabnavi

Abstract:

The hydrodynamic instability phenomenon in a journal bearing may occur by either a reduction in the load carried by journal bearing, by an increase in the journal speed, by change in the lubricant viscosity, or a combination of these factors. The previous research and development work done to overcome the instability issue of journal bearings, operating in hydrodynamic lubricate regime, can be categorized as follows: A) Actively controlling the bearing sleeve by using piezo actuator, b) Inclusion of strategically located and shaped internal grooves within inner surface of the bearing sleeve, c) Actively controlling the bearing sleeve using an electromagnetic actuator, d)Actively and externally pressurizing the lubricant within a journal bearing set, and e)Incorporating tilting pads within the inner surface of the bearing sleeve that assume different equilibrium angular position in response to changes in the bearing design parameter such as speed and load. This work presents an innovative design concept for a 'smart journal bearing' set to operate in a stable hydrodynamic lubrication regime, despite variations in bearing speed, load, and its lubricant viscosity. The proposed bearing design allows adjusting its radial clearance for an attempt to maintain a stable bearing operation under those conditions that may cause instability for a bearing with a fixed radial clearance. The design concept allows adjusting the radial clearance at small increments in the order of 0.00254 mm. This is achieved by axially moving two symmetric conical rigid cavities that are in close contact with the conically shaped outer shell of a sleeve bearing. The proposed work includes a 3D model of the bearing that depicts the structural interactions of the bearing components. The 3D model is employed to conduct finite element Analyses to simulate the mechanical behavior of the bearing from a structural point of view. The concept of controlling of the radial clearance, as presented in this work, is original and has not been proposed and discuss in previous research. A typical journal bearing was analyzed under a set of design parameters, namely r =1.27 cm (journal radius), c = 0.0254 mm (radial clearance), L=1.27 cm (bearing length), w = 445N (bearing load), μ = 0.028 Pascale (lubricant viscosity). A shaft speed as 3600 r.p.m was considered, and the mass supported by the bearing, m, is set to be 4.38kg. The Summerfield Number associated with the above bearing design parameters turn to be, S=0.3. These combinations resulted in stable bearing operation. Subsequently, the speed was postulated to increase from 3600 r.p.mto 7200 r.p.m; the bearing was found to be unstable under the new increased speed. In order to regain stability, the radial clearance was increased from c = 0.0254 mm to0.0358mm. The change in the radial clearance was shown to bring the bearing back to stable an operating condition.

Keywords: adjustable clearance, bearing, hydrodynamic, instability, journal

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19803 Students’ Perceptions Regarding Homosexuality at Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University

Authors: Deborah O. Okusanya, Chris Vanrooyen, Stefan de Jager

Abstract:

Introduction: Homosexuality has been and continues to be a controversial subject across many disciplines; it has generated many debates around religious, academic institutions, political, socio-cultural as well as medical domains. The current study investigated students from a previously disadvantaged African university’s perception regarding homosexuality. Method: This qualitative study utilized two focus groups to collect data, which then was analyzed using thematic content analysis. Result: The study revealed that students’ level of awareness with regard to homosexuality is very high and their perceptions largely negative. Students predominantly found the practice unethical, and un-African. Discussion: Students tend to show a lot of stereotypical prejudicial responses and there seems to be a general lack of willingness to discuss this in a public discourse. In conclusion, there seems to be a tension between cultural values and the open environment such as academic institutions. Students’ perceptions go a long way in shaping public discourse and the larger population’s general attitude toward homosexuality.

Keywords: discourse, homosexuality, stereotypical, un-African

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19802 Removal of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Present in Tyre Pyrolytic Oil Using Low Cost Natural Adsorbents

Authors: Neha Budhwani

Abstract:

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are formed during the pyrolysis of scrap tyres to produce tyre pyrolytic oil (TPO). Due to carcinogenic, mutagenic, and toxic properties PAHs are priority pollutants. Hence it is essential to remove PAHs from TPO before utilising TPO as a petroleum fuel alternative (to run the engine). Agricultural wastes have promising future to be utilized as biosorbent due to their cost effectiveness, abundant availability, high biosorption capacity and renewability. Various low cost adsorbents were prepared from natural sources. Uptake of PAHs present in tyre pyrolytic oil was investigated using various low-cost adsor¬bents of natural origin including sawdust (shiham), coconut fiber, neem bark, chitin, activated charcol. Adsorption experiments of different PAHs viz. naphthalene, acenaphthalene, biphenyl and anthracene have been carried out at ambient temperature (25°C) and at pH 7. It was observed that for any given PAH, the adsorption capacity increases with the lignin content. Freundlich constant kf and 1/n have been evaluated and it was found that the adsorption isotherms of PAHs were in agreement with a Freundlich model, while the uptake capacity of PAHs followed the order: activated charcoal> saw dust (shisham) > coconut fiber > chitin. The partition coefficients in acetone-water, and the adsorption constants at equilibrium, could be linearly correlated with octanol–water partition coefficients. It is observed that natural adsorbents are good alternative for PAHs removal. Sawdust of Dalbergia sissoo, a by-product of sawmills was found to be a promising adsorbent for the removal of PAHs present in TPO. It is observed that adsorbents studied were comparable to those of some conventional adsorbents.

Keywords: natural adsorbent, PAHs, TPO, coconut fiber, wood powder (shisham), naphthalene, acenaphthene, biphenyl and anthracene

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19801 Segregation Patterns of Trees and Grass Based on a Modified Age-Structured Continuous-Space Forest Model

Authors: Jian Yang, Atsushi Yagi

Abstract:

Tree-grass coexistence system is of great importance for forest ecology. Mathematical models are being proposed to study the dynamics of tree-grass coexistence and the stability of the systems. However, few of the models concentrates on spatial dynamics of the tree-grass coexistence. In this study, we modified an age-structured continuous-space population model for forests, obtaining an age-structured continuous-space population model for the tree-grass competition model. In the model, for thermal competitions, adult trees can out-compete grass, and grass can out-compete seedlings. We mathematically studied the model to make sure tree-grass coexistence solutions exist. Numerical experiments demonstrated that a fraction of area that trees or grass occupies can affect whether the coexistence is stable or not. We also tried regulating the mortality of adult trees with other parameters and the fraction of area trees and grass occupies were fixed; results show that the mortality of adult trees is also a factor affecting the stability of the tree-grass coexistence in this model.

Keywords: population-structured models, stabilities of ecosystems, thermal competitions, tree-grass coexistence systems

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19800 The Incidental Linguistic Information Processing and Its Relation to General Intellectual Abilities

Authors: Evgeniya V. Gavrilova, Sofya S. Belova

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The present study was aimed at clarifying the relationship between general intellectual abilities and efficiency in free recall and rhymed words generation task after incidental exposure to linguistic stimuli. The theoretical frameworks stress that general intellectual abilities are based on intentional mental strategies. In this context, it seems to be crucial to examine the efficiency of incidentally presented information processing in cognitive task and its relation to general intellectual abilities. The sample consisted of 32 Russian students. Participants were exposed to pairs of words. Each pair consisted of two common nouns or two city names. Participants had to decide whether a city name was presented in each pair. Thus words’ semantics was processed intentionally. The city names were considered to be focal stimuli, whereas common nouns were considered to be peripheral stimuli. Along with that each pair of words could be rhymed or not be rhymed, but this phonemic aspect of stimuli’s characteristic (rhymed and non-rhymed words) was processed incidentally. Then participants were asked to produce as many rhymes as they could to new words. The stimuli presented earlier could be used as well. After that, participants had to retrieve all words presented earlier. In the end, verbal and non-verbal abilities were measured with number of special psychometric tests. As for free recall task intentionally processed focal stimuli had an advantage in recall compared to peripheral stimuli. In addition all the rhymed stimuli were recalled more effectively than non-rhymed ones. The inverse effect was found in words generation task where participants tended to use mainly peripheral stimuli compared to focal ones. Furthermore peripheral rhymed stimuli were most popular target category of stimuli that was used in this task. Thus the information that was processed incidentally had a supplemental influence on efficiency of stimuli processing as well in free recall as in word generation task. Different patterns of correlations between intellectual abilities and efficiency in different stimuli processing in both tasks were revealed. Non-verbal reasoning ability correlated positively with free recall of peripheral rhymed stimuli, but it was not related to performance on rhymed words’ generation task. Verbal reasoning ability correlated positively with free recall of focal stimuli. As for rhymed words generation task, verbal intelligence correlated negatively with generation of focal stimuli and correlated positively with generation of all peripheral stimuli. The present findings lead to two key conclusions. First, incidentally processed stimuli had an advantage in free recall and word generation task. Thus incidental information processing appeared to be crucial for subsequent cognitive performance. Secondly, it was demonstrated that incidentally processed stimuli were recalled more frequently by participants with high nonverbal reasoning ability and were more effectively used by participants with high verbal reasoning ability in subsequent cognitive tasks. That implies that general intellectual abilities could benefit from operating by different levels of information processing while cognitive problem solving. This research was supported by the “Grant of President of RF for young PhD scientists” (contract № is 14.Z56.17.2980- MK) and the Grant № 15-36-01348a2 of Russian Foundation for Humanities.

Keywords: focal and peripheral stimuli, general intellectual abilities, incidental information processing

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19799 A Global Perspective on Neuropsychology: The Multicultural Neuropsychological Scale

Authors: Tünde Tifordiána Simonyi, Tímea Harmath-Tánczos

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The primary aim of the current research is to present the significance of a multicultural perspective in clinical neuropsychology and to present the test battery of the Multicultural Neuropsychological Scale (MUNS). The method includes the MUNS screening tool that involves stimuli common to most cultures in the world. The test battery measures general cognitive functioning focusing on five cognitive domains (memory, executive function, language, visual construction, and attention) tested with seven subtests that can be utilized within a wide age range (15-89), and lower and higher education participants. It is a scale that is sensitive to mild cognitive impairments. Our study presents the first results with the Hungarian translation of MUNS on a healthy sample. The education range was 4-25 years of schooling. The Hungarian sample was recruited by snowball sampling. Within the investigated population (N=151) the age curve follows an inverted U-shaped curve regarding cognitive performance with a high load on memory. Age, reading fluency, and years of education significantly influenced test scores. The sample was tested twice within a 14-49 days interval to determine test-retest reliability, which is satisfactory. Besides the findings of the study and the introduction of the test battery, the article also highlights its potential benefits for both research and clinical neuropsychological practice. The importance of adapting, validating and standardizing the test in other languages besides the Hungarian language context is also stressed. This test battery could serve as a helpful tool in mapping general cognitive functions in psychiatric and neurological disorders regardless of the cultural background of the patients.

Keywords: general cognitive functioning, multicultural, MUNS, neuropsychological test battery

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19798 Policy Effectiveness in the Situation of Economic Recession

Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

Abstract:

The proper policy handling might not able to attain the target since some of recessions, e.g., pandemic-led crises, the variables shocks of the economics. At the level of this situation, the Central bank implements the monetary policy to choose increase the exogenous expenditure and level of money supply consecutively for booster level economic growth, whether the monetary policy is relatively more effective than fiscal policy in altering real output growth of a country or both stand for relatively effective in the direction of output growth of a country. The dispute with reference to the relationship between the monetary policy and fiscal policy is centered on the inflationary penalty of the shortfall financing by the fiscal authority. The latest variables socks of economics as well as the pandemic-led crises, central banks around the world predicted just about a general dilemma in relation to increase rates to face the or decrease rates to sustain the economic movement. Whether the prices hang about fundamentally unaffected, the aggregate demand has also been hold a significantly negative attitude by the outbreak COVID-19 pandemic. To empirically investigate the effects of economics shocks associated COVID-19 pandemic, the paper considers the effectiveness of the monetary policy and fiscal policy that linked to the adjustment mechanism of different economic variables. To examine the effects of economics shock associated COVID-19 pandemic towards the effectiveness of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy in the direction of output growth of a Country, this paper uses the Simultaneous equations model under the estimation of Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Method.

Keywords: IS-LM framework, pandemic. Economics variables shocks, simultaneous equations model, output growth

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