Search results for: series compensation

Authors: Veronika Antoniou, Rene Carraz, Yiorgos Hadjichristou

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The Green Urban Lab took the form of public installations that were placed at various locations in four cities in Cyprus. These installations - through which a series of events, activities, workshops and research took place - were the main tools in regenerating a series of urban public spaces in Cyprus. The purpose of this project was to identify issues and opportunities related to public space and to offer guidelines on how design and participatory democracy improvements could strengthen civil society, while raising the quality of the urban public scene. Giant inflatable structures were injected in important urban fragments in order to accommodate series of events. The design and playful installation generated a wide community engagement. The fluid presence of the installations acted as a catalyst for social interaction. They were accessed and viewed effortlessly and surprisingly, creating opportunities to rediscover public spaces.

Keywords: bottom-up initiatives, creativity, public space, social innovation, urban environments

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

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Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction

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Authors: Galu Papy Yuma

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This paper presents a new dynamic simulation of a power system consisting of four machines equipped with the Generalized Unified Power Flow Controller (GUPFC) to improve power system stability. The dynamic simulation of the GUPFC consists of one shunt converter and two series converters based on voltage source converter, and DC link capacitor installed in the power system. MATLAB/Simulink is used to arrange the dynamic simulation of the GUPFC, where the power system is simulated in order to investigate the impact of the controller on power system oscillation damping and to show the simulation program reliability. The Improved Chaotic- Harmony Search (IC-HS) Algorithm is used to provide the parameter controller in order to lead-lag compensation design. The results obtained by simulation show that the power system with four machines is suitable for stability analysis. The use of GUPFC and IC-HS Algorithm provides the excellent capability in fast damping of power system oscillations and improve greatly the dynamic stability of the power system.

Keywords: GUPFC, IC-HS algorithm, Matlab/Simulink, damping oscillation

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Authors: A. K. M. Kamrul Islam, Abdelhamid Bouchachia, Suang Cang, Hongnian Yu

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Forecasting model has a great impact in terms of prediction and continues to do so into the future. Although many forecasting models have been studied in recent years, most researchers focus on different forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series to solve forecasting problems. The forecasted models accuracy fully depends on the two terms that are the length of the interval in the universe of discourse and the content of the forecast rules. Moreover, a hybrid forecasting method can be an effective and efficient way to improve forecasts rather than an individual forecasting model. There are different hybrids forecasting models which combined fuzzy time series with evolutionary algorithms, but the performances are not quite satisfactory. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid forecasting model which deals with the first order as well as high order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization to improve the forecasted accuracy. The proposed method used the historical enrollments of the University of Alabama as dataset in the forecasting process. Firstly, we considered an automatic clustering algorithm to calculate the appropriate interval for the historical enrollments. Then particle swarm optimization and fuzzy time series are combined that shows better forecasting accuracy than other existing forecasting models.

Keywords: fuzzy time series (fts), particle swarm optimization, clustering algorithm, hybrid forecasting model

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Authors: Christopher Latella, Ashlee M. Hendy, Dan Vander Westhuizen, Wei-Peng Teo

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Introduction: Neural adaptations following resistance training interventions have been widely investigated, however the evidence regarding the mechanisms of early adaptation are less clear. Understanding neural responses from an acute resistance training session is pivotal in the prescription of frequency, intensity and volume in applied strength and conditioning practice. Therefore the primary aim of this study was to investigate the time course of neurophysiological mechanisms post training against current super compensation theory, and secondly, to examine whether these responses reflect neural adaptations observed with resistance training interventions. Methods: Participants (N=14) completed a randomised, counterbalanced crossover study comparing; control, strength and hypertrophy conditions. The strength condition involved 3 x 5RM leg extensions with 3min recovery, while the hypertrophy condition involved 3 x 12 RM with 60s recovery. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and peripheral nerve stimulation were used to measure excitability of the central and peripheral neural pathways, and maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) to quantify strength changes. Measures were taken pre, immediately post, 10, 20 and 30 mins and 1, 2, 6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hrs following training. Results: Significant decreases were observed at post, 10, 20, 30 min, 1 and 2 hrs for both training groups compared to control group for force, (p <.05), maximal compound wave; (p < .005), silent period; (p < .05). A significant increase in corticospinal excitability; (p < .005) was observed for both groups. Corticospinal excitability between strength and hypertrophy groups was near significance, with a large effect (η2= .202). All measures returned to baseline within 6 hrs post training. Discussion: Neurophysiological mechanisms appear to be significantly altered in the period 2 hrs post training, returning to homeostasis by 6 hrs. The evidence suggests that the time course of neural recovery post resistance training occurs 18-40 hours shorter than previous super compensation models. Strength and hypertrophy protocols showed similar response profiles with current findings suggesting greater post training corticospinal drive from hypertrophy training, despite previous evidence that strength training requires greater neural input. The increase in corticospinal drive and decrease inl inhibition appear to be a compensatory mechanism for decreases in peripheral nerve excitability and maximal voluntary force output. The changes in corticospinal excitability and inhibition are akin to adaptive processes observed with training interventions of 4 wks or longer. It appears that the 2 hr recovery period post training is the most influential for priming further neural adaptations with resistance training. Secondly, the frequency of prescribed resistance sessions can be scheduled closer than previous super compensation theory for optimal strength gains.

Keywords: neural responses, resistance training, super compensation, transcranial magnetic stimulation

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Authors: Riaz A. Agha, Alexander J. Fowler, Seon-Young Lee, Buket Gundogan, Katharine Whitehurst, Harkiran K. Sagoo, Kyung Jin Lee Jeong, Douglas G. Altman, Dennis P. Orgill

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Introduction: Case Series are an important and common study type. Currently, no guideline exists for reporting case series and there is evidence of key data being missed from such reports. We propose to develop a reporting guideline for case series using a methodologically robust technique. The first step in this process is a systematic review of literature relevant to the reporting deficiencies of case series. Methods: A systematic review of methodological and reporting quality in surgical case series was performed. The electronic search strategy was developed by an information specialist and included MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Methods Register, Science Citation index and Conference Proceedings Citation index, from the start of indexing until 5th November 2014. Independent screening, eligibility assessments and data extraction was performed. Included articles were analyzed for five areas of deficiency: failure to use standardized definitions missing or selective data transparency or incomplete reporting whether alternate study designs were considered. Results: The database searching identified 2,205 records. Through the process of screening and eligibility assessments, 92 articles met inclusion criteria. Frequency of methodological and reporting issues identified was a failure to use standardized definitions (57%), missing or selective data (66%), transparency, or incomplete reporting (70%), whether alternate study designs were considered (11%) and other issues (52%). Conclusion: The methodological and reporting quality of surgical case series needs improvement. Our data shows that clear evidence-based guidelines for the conduct and reporting of a case series may be useful to those planning or conducting them.

Keywords: case series, reporting quality, surgery, systematic review

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Authors: Sooyoung Cho, In-Gun Kim, Hyun-Seok Hong, Dong-Woo Kang, Ju Lee

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Series hybrid UAV(Unmanned aerial vehicle) that is proposed in this paper performs VTOL(Vertical take-off and landing) using the battery and generator, and it applies the series hybrid system with combination of the small engine and generator when cruising flight. This system can be described as the next-generation system that can dramatically increase the UAV flight times. Also, UAV systems require a large energy at the time of VTOL to be conducted for a short time. Therefore, this paper designs PMSG(Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator) having a high specific power considering VTOL through the FEA.

Keywords: PMSG, VTOL, UAV, high specific power density

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Authors: Emanuel Guariglia

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In this paper we deal with Chebyshev wavelets. We analyze their properties computing their Fourier transform. Moreover, we discuss the differential properties of Chebyshev wavelets due the connection coefficients. The differential properties of Chebyshev wavelets, expressed by the connection coefficients (also called refinable integrals), are given by finite series in terms of the Kronecker delta. Moreover, we treat the p-order derivative of Chebyshev wavelets and compute its Fourier transform. Finally, we expand the mother wavelet in Taylor series with an application both in fractional calculus and fractal geometry.

Keywords: Chebyshev wavelets, Fourier transform, connection coefficients, Taylor series, local fractional derivative, Cantor set

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Authors: Olivier Delage, Hassan Bencherif, Alain Bourdier

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Signal decomposition approaches represent an important step in time series analysis, providing useful knowledge and insight into the data and underlying dynamics characteristics while also facilitating tasks such as noise removal and feature extraction. As most of observational time series are nonlinear and nonstationary, resulting of several physical processes interaction at different time scales, experimental time series have fluctuations at all time scales and requires the development of specific signal decomposition techniques. Most commonly used techniques are data driven, enabling to obtain well-behaved signal components without making any prior-assumptions on input data. Among the most popular time series decomposition techniques, most cited in the literature, are the empirical mode decomposition and its variants, the empirical wavelet transform and singular spectrum analysis. With increasing popularity and utility of these methods in wide ranging applications, it is imperative to gain a good understanding and insight into the operation of these algorithms. In this work, we describe all of the techniques mentioned above as well as their ability to denoise signals, to capture trends, to identify components corresponding to the physical processes involved in the evolution of the observed system and deduce the dimensionality of the underlying dynamics. Results obtained with all of these methods on experimental total ozone columns and rainfall time series will be discussed and compared

Keywords: denoising, empirical mode decomposition, singular spectrum analysis, time series, underlying dynamics, wavelet analysis

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Authors: Adebayo John Julius, Emmanuel Imoagene

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Mitigating global warming through reducing emission from deforestation and degradation (REDD) has been given increasing attentions in government-to-government negotiations while discussions among decision-makers have been going on, it is important to learn about the perception of local people in relation to REDD because the implementation will affect their lives. A survey was conducted using questionnaires to examine the livelihood and forest dependency of the local people in the vicinity of Onigambari and Ido area. Respondents’ income from forest activities and forest resources are collected. Participation in tourism related activities among the household members was also investigated to measure the potential of this “eco-friendly” income generation activity in the local communities. There was a general indication of reducing slash-and-burn activities with distance from the park and involvement in tourism-related job. Most of the local people were willing to accept compensation as alternative for slash-and-burn activities. The compensation preferred is in various form of development and different level of forest and environmental activities

Keywords: livelihood, emission, deforestation, degradation, local people, southwest Nigeria

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Authors: Shreemoyee Sarkar, Vikhyat Chadha

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In this paper, the local fractal properties and chaotic properties of financial time series are investigated by calculating two exponents, the Local Hurst Exponent: LHE and Lyapunov Exponent in a moving time window of a financial series.y. For the purpose of this paper, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) and S&P 500, two of the major indices of United States have been considered. The behaviour of the above-mentioned exponents prior to some major crashes (1998 and 2008 crashes in S&P 500 and 2002 and 2008 crashes in DIJA) is discussed. Also, the optimal length of the window for obtaining the best possible results is decided. Based on the outcomes of the above, an attempt is made to predict the crashes and accuracy of such an algorithm is decided.

Keywords: local hurst exponent, lyapunov exponent, market crash prediction, time series chaos, time series local fractal properties

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Authors: O. Abdelkhalek, A. Naimi, M. Rami, M. N. Tandjaoui, A. Kechich

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This paper deals with the active and reactive power flow analysis inside the unified power quality conditioner (UPQC) during several cases. The UPQC is a combination of shunt and series active power filter (APF). It is one of the best solutions towards the mitigation of voltage sags and swells problems on distribution network. This analysis can provide the helpful information to well understanding the interaction between the series filter, the shunt filter, the DC bus link and electrical network. The mathematical analysis is based on active and reactive power flow through the shunt and series active power filter. Wherein series APF can absorb or deliver the active power to mitigate a swell or sage voltage where in the both cases it absorbs a small reactive power quantity whereas the shunt active power absorbs or releases the active power for stabilizing the storage capacitor’s voltage as well as the power factor correction. The voltage sag and voltage swell are usually interpreted through the DC bus voltage curves. These two phenomena are introduced in this paper with a new interpretation based on the active and reactive power flow analysis inside the UPQC. For simplifying this study, a linear load is supposed in this digital simulation. The simulation results are carried out to confirm the analysis done.

Keywords: UPQC, Power flow analysis, shunt filter, series filter.

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Authors: Mekamı Hayet, Bounoua Nacer, Benabderrahmane Sidahmed, Taleb Ahmed

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Pose estimation is an important task in computer vision. Though the majority of the existing solutions provide good accuracy results, they are often overly complex and computationally expensive. In this perspective, we propose the use of dimensionality reduction techniques to address the problem of facial pose estimation. Firstly, a face image is converted into one-dimensional time series using Hilbert space filling curve, then the approach converts these time series data to a symbolic representation. Furthermore, a distance matrix is calculated between symbolic series of an input learning dataset of images, to generate classifiers of frontal vs. profile face pose. The proposed method is evaluated with three public datasets. Experimental results have shown that our approach is able to achieve a correct classification rate exceeding 97% with K-NN algorithm.

Keywords: machine learning, pattern recognition, facial pose classification, time series

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Authors: Christian Lavault

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In this paper, the generalized fractional integral operators of two generalized Mittag-Leffler type functions are investigated. The special cases of interest involve the generalized M-series and K-function, both introduced by Sharma. The two pairs of theorems established herein generalize recent results about left- and right-sided generalized fractional integration operators applied here to the M-series and the K-function. The note also results in important applications in physics and mathematical engineering.

Keywords: Fox–Wright Psi function, generalized hypergeometric function, generalized Riemann– Liouville and Erdélyi–Kober fractional integral operators, Saigo's generalized fractional calculus, Sharma's M-series and K-function

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Authors: Salako Rotimi, Oshungade Stephen, Ojewoye Opeyemi

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The maintenance of price stability is one of the macroeconomic challenges facing Nigeria as a nation. This paper attempts to build a co-integration multivariate time series model for inflation movement in Nigeria using data extracted from the abstract of statistics of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 2008 to 2017. The Johansen cointegration test suggests at least one co-integration vector describing the long run relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI), Food Price Index (FPI) and Non-Food Price Index (NFPI). All three series show increasing pattern, which indicates a sign of non-stationary in each of the series. Furthermore, model predictability was established with root-mean-square-error, mean absolute error, mean average percentage error, and Theil’s unbiased statistics for n-step forecasting. The result depicts that the long run coefficient of a consumer price index (CPI) has a positive long-run relationship with the food price index (FPI) and non-food price index (NFPI).

Keywords: economic, inflation, model, series

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Authors: Wahab Ali Shah, Junjia He

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Transferring electrical power without any wiring has been a dream since late 19^th century. There were some advances in this area as to know more about microwave systems. However, this subject has recently become very attractive due to their practiScal systems. There are low power applications such as charging the batteries of contactless tooth brushes or implanted devices, and higher power applications such as charging the batteries of electrical automobiles or buses. In the first group of applications operating frequencies are in microwave range while the frequency is lower in high power applications. In the latter, the concept is also called inductive power transfer. The aim of the paper is to have an overview of the inductive power transfer for electrical vehicles with a special concentration on coil design and power converter simulation for static charging. Coil design is very important for an efficient and safe power transfer. Coil design is one of the most critical tasks. Power converters are used in both side of the system. The converter on the primary side is used to generate a high frequency voltage to excite the primary coil. The purpose of the converter in the secondary is to rectify the voltage transferred from the primary to charge the battery. In this paper, an inductive power transfer system is studied. Inductive power transfer is a promising technology with several possible applications. Operation principles of these systems are explained, and components of the system are described. Finally, a single phase 2 kW system was simulated and results were presented. The work presented in this paper is just an introduction to the concept. A reformed compensation network based on traditional inductor-capacitor-inductor (LCL) topology is proposed to realize robust reaction to large coupling variation that is common in dynamic wireless charging application. In the future, this type compensation should be studied. Also, comparison of different compensation topologies should be done for the same power level.

Keywords: coil design, contactless charging, electrical automobiles, inductive power transfer, operating frequency

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Authors: Krytskyy T.

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Introduction: The role of androgen deficiency in men as a factor in the pathogenesis of many somatic diseases is unmistakable. The interaction of thyroid and sex hormones with hypothyroidism in men is still the subject of discussions. The purpose of the study is to assess the androgen status of men with primary hypothyroidism, depending on its duration and the state of compensation. Materials and methods: 45 men with primary hypothyroidism aged 35 to 60 years, as well as 25 healthy men, who formed a control group, were under supervision. A selection of men for examination was conducted in the process of outpatient and in-patient treatment at the endocrinology department of the University Hospital in Ternopil. The functional state of the pituitary-gonadal system was evaluated in order to characterize the androgen status of patients. The concentration of follicle stimulating hormone, luteinizing hormone, prolactin, thyroid-stimulating hormone was determined in blood with the help of enzyme-linked method. Also, the content of hormones: total testosterone, linking sex hormones globulin were determined. Results: Reduced total testosterone (TT) content was found in 42.2% of patients with hypothyroidism. Herewith in 17.8% of patients, blood TT levels were lower than 8.0 nmol / L, and in 11 (24.4%) men, the rate was in the range of 8.0 to 12.0 nmol / L. Based on the results of the determination of the content of free testosterone (FT), the frequency of laboratory hypogonadism in men with hypothyroidism was higher than the results of the determination of TT. The degree of compensation of hypothyroidism probably did not affect the average levels of gonadotropic and sex hormones. Conclusions: Reduced total testosterone content was found in 42.2% of patients with primary hypothyroidism. Herewith, in 17.8% of patients blood TT levels were lower than 8.0 nmol / L, which is a sign of absolute deficiency of testosterone, and in 24.4% of men the rate ranged from 8.0 to 12.0 nmol / l , indicating partial androgen deficiency. Linking sex hormones globulin levels were believed to be lower in 46.7% of patients with hypothyroidism compared to control group. The average levels of E2 in the examined patients did not significantly differ from the mean of control group. FSH, LH, and prolactin levels in men with hypothyroidism were within the normal age limits and probably did not differ from those of control group. The degree of compensation of hypothyroidism probably did not affect the average levels of gonadotropic and sex hormones. The mean LH content in the blood was significantly increased in men with a duration of hypothyroidism up to 5 years and did not differ from that of the control group and in men with a duration of hypothyroidism over 5 years. In men with hypothyroidism, a probable reduction in T / LH coefficient is found. The obtained data may indicate a combined lesion of the central and peripheral parts of the pituitary-gonadal system in men with hypothyroidism.

Keywords: androgenic status, hypothyroidism, testosterone, linking sex hormones globulin

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Authors: Bum-Soo Kim, Jin-Uk Kim

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In this paper, we design and implement a partial denoising boundary image matching system using indexing techniques. Converting boundary images to time-series makes it feasible to perform fast search using indexes even on a very large image database. Thus, using this converting method we develop a client-server system based on the previous partial denoising research in the GUI (graphical user interface) environment. The client first converts a query image given by a user to a time-series and sends denoising parameters and the tolerance with this time-series to the server. The server identifies similar images from the index by evaluating a range query, which is constructed using inputs given from the client, and sends the resulting images to the client. Experimental results show that our system provides much intuitive and accurate matching result.

Keywords: boundary image matching, indexing, partial denoising, time-series matching

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Authors: Ibrahim Tiryakioglu, Mehmet Ali Ugur, Caglar Ozkaymak

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The development of GNSS technology has led to increasingly widespread and successful applications of GNSS surveys for monitoring crustal movements. However, multi-period GPS survey solutions have not been applied in monitoring vertical surface deformation. This study uses long-term GNSS time series that are required to determine vertical deformations. In recent years, the surface deformations that are parallel and semi-parallel to Bolvadin fault have occurred in Western Anatolia. These surface deformations have continued to occur in Bolvadin settlement area that is located mostly on alluvium ground. Due to these surface deformations, a number of cracks in the buildings located in the residential areas and breaks in underground water and sewage systems have been observed. In order to determine the amount of vertical surface deformations, two continuous GNSS stations have been established in the region. The stations have been operating since 2015 and 2017, respectively. In this study, GNSS observations from the mentioned two GNSS stations were processed with GAMIT/GLOBK (GNSS Analysis Massachusetts Institute of Technology/GLOBal Kalman) program package to create a coordinate time series. With the time series analyses, the GNSS stations’ behavior models (linear, periodical, etc.), the causes of these behaviors, and mathematical models were determined. The study results from the time series analysis of these two 2 GNSS stations shows approximately 50-80 mm/yr vertical movement.

Keywords: Bolvadin fault, GAMIT, GNSS time series, surface deformations

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Authors: Tatiana Tunon, Gottfried Pestal

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Government agencies responsible for the management of fisheries resources publish many types of grey literature, and these materials are increasingly accessible to the public on agency websites. However, scope and quality vary considerably, and end-users need meta-data about the report series when deciding whether to use the information (e.g. apply the methods, include the results in a systematic review), or when prioritizing materials for archiving (e.g. library holdings, reference databases). A proposed taxonomy for these report series was developed based on a review of 41 report series from 6 government agencies in 4 countries (Canada, New Zealand, Scotland, and United States). Each report series was categorized according to multiple criteria describing peer-review process, content, and purpose. A robust classification tree was then fitted to these descriptions, and the resulting taxonomic groups were used to compare agency output from 4 countries using reports available in their online repositories.

Keywords: classification tree, fisheries, government, grey literature

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Authors: Amartya Hatua, Trung Nguyen, Andrew Sung

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In this paper, we study the information diffusion process on Twitter as a multivariate time series problem. Our model concerns three measures (volume, network influence, and sentiment of tweets) based on 10 features, and we collected 27 million tweets to build our information diffusion time series dataset for analysis. Then, different time series clustering techniques with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance were used to identify different patterns of information diffusion. Finally, we built the information diffusion prediction models for new hashtags which comprise two phrases: The first phrase is recognizing the pattern using k-NN with DTW distance; the second phrase is building the forecasting model using the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the non-linear recurrent neural network of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Preliminary results of performance evaluation between different forecasting models show that LSTM with clustering information notably outperforms other models. Therefore, our approach can be applied in real-world applications to analyze and predict the information diffusion characteristics of selected topics or memes (hashtags) in Twitter.

Keywords: ARIMA, DTW, information diffusion, LSTM, RNN, time series clustering, time series forecasting, Twitter

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Authors: Lakdar Sadi-Haddad

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The past few years study of very high speed electrical drives have seen a resurgence of interest. An inventory of the number of scientific papers and patents dealing with the subject makes it relevant. In fact democratization of magnetic bearing technology is at the origin of recent developments in high speed applications. These machines have as main advantage a much higher power density than the state of the art. Nevertheless particular attention should be paid to the design of the inverter as well as control and command. Surface mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine is the most appropriate technology to address high speed issues. However, it has the drawback of using a carbon sleeve to contain magnets that could tear because of the centrifugal forces generated in rotor periphery. Carbon fiber is well known for its mechanical properties but it has poor heat conduction. It results in a very bad evacuation of eddy current losses induce in the magnets by time and space stator harmonics. The three-phase inverter is the main harmonic source causing eddy currents in the magnets. In high speed applications such harmonics are harmful because on the one hand the characteristic impedance is very low and on the other hand the ratio between the switching frequency and that of the fundamental is much lower than that of the state of the art. To minimize the impact of these harmonics a first lever is to use strategy of modulation producing low harmonic distortion while the second is to introduce a sinus filter between the inverter and the machine to smooth voltage and current waveforms applied to the machine. Nevertheless, in very high speed machine the interaction of the processes mentioned above may introduce particular harmonics that can irreversibly damage the system: harmonics at the resonant frequency, harmonics at the shaft mode frequency, subharmonics etc. Some studies address these issues but treat these phenomena with separate solutions (specific strategy of modulation, active damping methods ...). The purpose of this paper is to present a complete new active harmonic compensation algorithm based on an improvement of the standard vector control as a global solution to all these issues. This presentation will be based on a complete theoretical analysis of the processes leading to the generation of such undesired harmonics. Then a state of the art of available solutions will be provided before developing the content of a new active harmonic compensation algorithm. The study will be completed by a validation study using simulations and practical case on a high speed machine.

Keywords: active harmonic compensation, eddy current losses, high speed machine

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Authors: Theophilus Adjirackor, Frederic Sam, Irene Opoku-Ntim, David Okoh Kpeglo, Prince K. Gyekye, Frank K. Quashie, Kofi Ofori

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Indoor radon concentrations were collected monthly over a period of one year in 10 different levels in an underground goldmine, and the data was analyzed using a four-moving average time series to determine the relationship between the depths of the underground mine and the indoor radon concentration. The detectors were installed in batches within four quarters. The measurements were carried out using LR115 solid-state nuclear track detectors. Statistical models are applied in the prediction and analysis of the radon concentration at various depths. The time series model predicted a positive relationship between the depth of the underground mine and the indoor radon concentration. Thus, elevated radon concentrations are expected at deeper levels of the underground mine, but the relationship was insignificant at the 5% level of significance with a negative adjusted R2 (R2 = – 0.021) due to an appropriate engineering and adequate ventilation rate in the underground mine.

Keywords: LR115, radon concentration, rime series, underground goldmine

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Authors: Eric Mwenda, Shadrack Ngene

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Human-wildlife conflicts (HWCs) are the main threat to conservation in Africa. This is because wildlife needs overlap with those of humans. In Kenya, about 70% of wildlife occurs outside protected areas. As a result, wildlife and human range overlap, causing HWCs. The HWCs in Kenya occur in the drylands adjacent to protected areas. The top five counties with the highest incidences of HWC are Taita Taveta, Narok, Lamu, Kajiado, and Laikipia. The common wildlife species responsible for HWCs are elephants, buffaloes, hyenas, hippos, leopards, baboons, monkeys, snakes, and crocodiles. To ensure individuals affected by the conflicts are compensated, Kenya has developed a model of HWC compensation claims data collection and payment. We collected data on HWC from all eight Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) Conservation Areas from 2009 to 2019. Additional data was collected from stakeholders' consultative workshops held in the Conservation Areas and a literature review regarding payment of injuries and ongoing insurance schemes being practiced in areas. This was followed by the description of the claims administration process and calculation of the pricing of the compensation claims. We further developed a digital platform for data capture and processing of all reported conflict cases and payments. Our product recognized four categories of HWC (i.e., human death and injury, property damage, crop destruction, and livestock predation). Personal bodily injury and human death were provided based on the Continental Scale of Benefits. We proposed a maximum of Kenya Shillings (KES) 3,000,000 for death. Medical, pharmaceutical, and hospital expenses were capped at a maximum of KES 150,000, as well as funeral costs at KES 50,000. Pain and suffering were proposed to be paid for 12 months at the rate of KES 13,500 per month. Crop damage was to be based on farm input costs at a maximum of KES 150,000 per claim. Livestock predation leading to death was based on Tropical Livestock Unit (TLU), which is equivalent to KES 30,000, whick includes Cattle (1 TLU = KES 30,000), Camel (1.4 TLU = KES 42,000), Goat (0.15 TLU = 4,500), Sheep (0.15 TLU = 4,500), and Donkey (0.5 TLU = KES 15,000). Property destruction (buildings, outside structures and harvested crops) was capped at KES 150,000 per any one claim. We conclude that it is possible to use an administrator to collect data on HWC compensation claims and make payments using technology. The success of the new approach will depend on a piloting program. We recommended that a pilot scheme be initiated for eight months in Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Narok, and Meru Counties. This will test the claims administration process as well as harmonize data collection methods. The results of this pilot will be crucial in adjusting the scheme before country-wide roll out.

Keywords: human-wildlife conflicts, compensation, human death and injury, crop destruction, predation, property destruction

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Authors: Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Maria C. Mariani, Osei K. Tweneboah

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In the present work, we develop a technique for estimating the volatility of financial time series by using stochastic differential equation. Taking the daily closing prices from developed and emergent stock markets as the basis, we argue that the incorporation of stochastic volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves the forecasting performance via Maximum Likelihood Estimation. While using the technique, we see the long-memory behavior of data sets and one-step-ahead-predicted log-volatility with ±2 standard errors despite the variation of the observed noise from a Normal mixture distribution, because the financial data studied is not fully Gaussian. Also, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process followed in this work simulates well the financial time series, which aligns our estimation algorithm with large data sets due to the fact that this algorithm has good convergence properties.

Keywords: financial time series, maximum likelihood estimation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type models, stochastic volatility model

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Authors: Aswathi Thrivikraman, S. Advaith

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The study is aimed at designing encoders for deciphering intricacies in time series data by redescribing the dynamics operating on a lower-dimensional manifold. A semi-supervised LSTM autoencoder is devised and investigated to see if the latent representation of the time series data can better forecast the data. End-to-end training of the LSTM autoencoder, together with another LSTM network that is connected to the latent space, forces the hidden states of the encoder to represent the most meaningful latent variables relevant for forecasting. Furthermore, the study compares the predictions with those of a traditional seq2seq model.

Keywords: LSTM, autoencoder, forecasting, seq2seq model

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Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

Abstract:

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model

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Authors: Marina Benito-Parejo, Raul Perez-Lopez, Miguel Herraiz, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, Cesar Martinez

Abstract:

Persistency, long-term memory and randomness are intrinsic properties of time-series of earthquakes. The Rescaled Range Analysis (RS-Analysis) was introduced by Hurst in 1956 and modified by Mandelbrot and Wallis in 1964. This method represents a simple and elegant analysis which determines the range of variation of one natural property (the seismic energy released in this case) in a time interval. Despite the simplicity, there is complexity inherent in the property measured. The cumulative curve of the energy released in time is the well-known fractal geometry of a devil’s staircase. This geometry is used for determining the maximum and minimum value of the range, which is normalized by the standard deviation. The rescaled range obtained obeys a power-law with the time, and the exponent is the Hurst value. Depending on this value, time-series can be classified in long-term or short-term memory. Hence, an algorithm has been developed for compiling the RS-Analysis for time series of earthquakes by days. Completeness time distribution and locally stationarity of the time series are required. The interest of this analysis is their application for a complex seismic crisis where different earthquakes take place in clusters in a short period. Therefore, the Hurst exponent has been obtained for the seismic crisis of Alhoceima (Mediterranean Sea) of January-March, 2016, where at least five medium-sized earthquakes were triggered. According to the values obtained from the Hurst exponent for each cluster, a different mechanical origin can be detected, corroborated by the focal mechanisms calculated by the official institutions. Therefore, this type of analysis not only allows an approach to a greater understanding of a seismic series but also makes possible to discern different types of seismic origins.

Keywords: Alhoceima crisis, earthquake time series, Hurst exponent, rescaled range analysis

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Authors: Abiodun Ayodele Sanyaolu

Abstract:

The research was carried out to investigate the time series analysis on quarterly production of fruit juice at the National Horticultural Research Institute Ibadan from 2010 to 2018. Documentary method of data collection was used, and the method of least square and moving average were used in the analysis. From the calculation and the graph, it was glaring that there was increase, decrease, and uniform movements in both the graph of the original data and the tabulated quarter values of the original data. Time series analysis was used to detect the trend in the highest number of fruit juice and it appears to be good over a period of time and the methods used to forecast are additive and multiplicative models. Since it was observed that the production of fruit juice is usually high in January of every year, it is strongly advised that National Horticultural Research Institute should make more provision for fruit juice storage outside this period of the year.

Keywords: fruit juice, least square, multiplicative models, time series

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Authors: Hanan Eltayeb, Reem Al Refaie

Abstract:

To be able to connect and relate to shows spoken in a foreign language, advanced learners must understand not only linguistics inferences but also cultural, metacognitive, and pragmatic connotations in colloquial Egyptian TV series. These connotations are needed to both understand the different facets of the dramas put before them, and they’re also consistently grown and formulated through watching these shows. The inferences have become a staple in the Egyptian colloquial culture over the years, making their way into day-to-day conversations as Egyptians use them to speak, relate, joke, and connect with each other, without having known one another from previous times. As for advanced learners, they need to understand these inferences not only to watch these shows, but also to be able to converse with Egyptians on a level that surpasses the formal, or standard. When faced with some of the somewhat recent shows on the Egyptian screens, learners faced challenges in understanding pragmatics, cultural, and religious background of the target language and consequently not able to interact effectively with a native speaker in real-life situations. This study aims to enhance the linguistic and cultural proficiency of learners through studying two genres of TV Colloquial Egyptian series. Study samples derived from two recent comedian and social Egyptian series ('The Seventh Neighbor' سابع جار, and 'Nelly and Sherihan' نيللي و شريهان). When learners watch such series, they are usually faced with a problem understanding inferences that have to do with social, religious, and political events that are addressed in the series. Using discourse analysis of the sematic, semantic, pragmatic, cultural, and linguistic characteristics of the target language, some major deductions were highlighted and repeated, showing a pattern in both. The research paper concludes that there are many sets of lingual and para-lingual phrases, idioms, and proverbs to be acquired and used effectively by teaching these series. The strategies adopted in the study can be applied to different types of media, like movies, TV shows, and even cartoons, to enhance student proficiency.

Keywords: Egyptian series, culture, linguistic competence, pragmatics, semantics, social

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