Search results for: geopolitical and economic crisis

Authors: Soumaya Ben Kheilifa, Dorra Mezzez Hmaied

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We propose two approaches to examine whether European hedge fund managers can time market liquidity. Using a sample of 1616 European hedge funds, we find evidence of liquidity timing. More importantly, this ability adds economic value to investors. Thus, it represents valuable managerial skill and a major source of European hedge funds’ performance. Also we show that the majority of these funds demonstrate liquidity timing ability especially during liquidity crisis. Finally, it emerged that our main evidence of liquidity timing remains significant after controlling for market timing and volatility timing.

Keywords: european hedge funds, liquidity timing ability, market liquidity, crisis

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Authors: Maryam Jabeen

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In recent times, there has been a notable surge in attention towards diverse literacy concepts such as media literacy, information literacy, and digital literacy. These concepts have garnered escalating interest, spurring the emergence of novel approaches, particularly in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis. However, amidst discussions of crises, the domain of crisis literacy remains largely uncharted within academic exploration. Crisis literacy, also referred to as disaster literacy, denotes an individual's aptitude to not only comprehend but also effectively apply information, enabling well-informed decision-making and adherence to instructions about disaster mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. This theoretical and descriptive study seeks to transcend foundational literacy concepts, underscoring the urgency for an in-depth exploration of crisis literacy and its interplay with the realm of media communication. Given the profound impact of the pandemic experience and the looming uncertainty of potential future crises, there arises a pressing need to elevate crisis literacy, or disaster literacy, towards heightened autonomy and active involvement within the spheres of critical disaster preparedness, recovery initiatives, and media communication domains. This research paper is part of my ongoing Ph.D. research study, which explores on a broader level the Encoding and decoding of media communications in relation to crisis literacy. The primary objective of this research paper is to expound upon a descriptive, theoretical research endeavor delving into this domain. The emphasis lies in highlighting the paramount significance of media communications in literacy of crisis, coupled with an accentuated focus on its role in providing information to marginalized populations amidst crises. In conclusion, this research bridges the gap in crisis literacy correlation to media communications exploration, advocating for a comprehensive understanding of its dynamics and its symbiotic relationship with media communications. It intends to foster a heightened sense of crisis literacy, particularly within marginalized communities, catalyzing proactive participation in disaster preparedness, recovery processes, and adept media interactions.

Keywords: covid-19, crisis literacy, crisis, marginalized, media and communications, pandemic, vulnerable people

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Authors: Michele Romanello

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COVID-19 has spread rapidly in Brazil since March 2020, making the country one of the most affected in the world by the pandemic. From an economic point of view, Brazil came from a pre-pandemic period characterized by low or negative growth, with a resulting increase in the number of unemployed and informal workers. This paper considers lockdown implementation in the situation of the large presence of informality in the economy. The objective of the paper is to analyze how the country has tried to help workers affected by economic crisis after the implementation of measures against COVID-19 and whether the emergency assistance from the government has been adequate to contain the increase of informal workers and unemployed. The methodology used in this paper is survival analysis. Through this methodology, the formality – informality, and informality – unemployment transitions are analyzed. This analysis draws data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Continuous PNAD) and from the National Household Sample Survey COVID-19 (PNAD COVID-19) covering the period of January 2020 – July 2020. The results indicate that emergency aid has been not sufficient to reduce the transitions of workers from formal to informal jobs and from informal jobs to unemployment. Emergency aid has been not sufficient considering the previous situation of the country, with levels of poverty and inequality very high. In the next months, another fundamental determinant of the income trajectory in the context of the COVID-19 crisis will be the continuity of the emergency aid, especially considering the fiscal adjustment policy pursued by the government. Therefore, the current negative portrait may be even worse in the coming months.

Keywords: Brazil, COVID-19, informality, survival analysis

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Authors: Majda Al Salti

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Tourism industry is considered globally as one of the leading industries due to its noticeable contribution to countries' gross domestic product (GDP) and job creation. However, tourism is vulnerable to crisis and disaster that requires its preparedness. With its limited capabilities, there is a need to improve links and the understanding between the tourism industry and the emergency services, thus facilitating future emergency response to any potential incident. This study aims to develop the concept of an integrated emergency management system for the tourism industry. The study used face-to-face semi-structured interviews to evaluate the level of crisis and disaster preparedness of the tourism industry in Oman. The findings suggested that there is a lack of understanding of crisis and disaster management, and hence preparedness level among Oman Tourism Authorities appears to be under-expectation. Therefore, a clear need for tourism sector inter- and intra-integration and collaboration is important in the pre-disaster stage. The need for such integrations can help the tourism industry in Oman to prepare for future incidents as well as identifying its requirements in time of crisis for effective response.

Keywords: tourism, emergency services, crisis, disaster

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Authors: Mennani Maha, Attak El Houssain

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Under the massive effect of the Covid-19 health crisis, marked by a loss of competitiveness, a slowdown in growth and an accumulation of the repercussions of socio-economic inequalities, a considerable effort must be combined, in Morocco, to put into perspective macro-political, macro-economic and social opportunities. The development of a new economic and social approach is essential in order to respond to the authenticity of the new development model that will be used by the country. The appropriation of strategies of solidarity and social cohesion constitutes a participatory, competitive and inclusive approach to support the functionalities of the economic, social and political system. Therefore, the search for alternative financial resources has become a necessity to achieve the objectives of sustainable socio-economic growth on the one hand; and to promote, on the other hands, the dynamics, of large scale, social investments. The zakat remains a site of the Islamic economy dedicated to stimulating the bases of a collective adhesion of the population on the economic, as well as on the social level, thanks to a fair and equitable distribution of the zakat funds. However, Morocco is one of the few Muslim countries that has not yet had an institution for collecting and distributing this Islamic duty, which makes it difficult to measure the socio-economic impact of zakat. This theoretical document essentially ensures the development of the crucial utility of institutionalizing zakat in order to reinforce the objectives of social solidarity in Morocco in line with the process of conceptualizing a new development model.

Keywords: zakat, socio-economic development, solidarity, social investment

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Authors: Mohammad Mehdizadeh, Sara Miri

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Due to the recent events surrounding the global health crisis and the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), the activities of many businesses and start-up companies have been disrupted. It solves many economic problems and can reduce unemployment in countries because governments can take advantage of their potential without direct investment. However, with the help of their innovative ideas and new technologies, these companies can develop and grow the economy. But it is essential to consider that there will be no guarantee of their success in the event of unforeseen events, as the coronavirus outbreak in the last two years has seriously damaged these companies and, like other businesses, challenges and stagnation have started. The startup companies' challenge in the face of coronavirus begins with its impact on customers. Changing customer behavior can affect their products and distribution channels. On the other hand, to prevent countless losses in this crisis, startup companies require creative solutions to address challenges in various areas of human capital, supply chain management, sales and marketing, and so on. Therefore, all business leaders must consider and plan for the current crisis and the future; after overcoming these conditions and returning to regular business routines, it will no longer be an option, and new situations will prevail in a competitive environment. The essential strategies for developing and growing startups during the Coronavirus outbreak can be connecting with the global startup ecosystem, hosting webinars, providing podcasts and free question and answer sessions, mentoring services to growing teams, and consulting pointed out this to firms for digitalization.

Keywords: business, COVID-19, digitalization, startups

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Authors: German Ricci

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The research aims to analyse the symbolic power of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its relationship with a borrowing country, drawing upon Pierre Bourdieu’s Field Theory. This theory of power, typical of constructivist structuralism, has been minor used in international relations. Thus, selecting this perspective offers a new understanding of how the IMF's power operates and is structured. The IMF makes periodic economic reviews in which the staff evaluates the Government's performance. It also offers “last instance” loans when private external credit is not accessible. This relationship generates great expectations in financial agents because the IMF’s statements indicate the capacity of the Nation-State to meet its payment obligations (or not). Therefore, it is argued that the IMF is a legitimate actor for financial agents concerned about a government facing an economic crisis both for the effects of its immediate economic contribution through loans and the promotion of adjustment programs, helpful to guarantee the payment of the external debt. This legitimacy implies a symbolic power relationship in addition to the already known economic power relationship. Obtaining the IMF's consent implies that the government partially puts its political-economic decisions into play since the monetary policy must be agreed upon with the Fund. This has consequences at the local level. First, it implies that the debtor state must establish a daily relationship with the Fund. This everyday interaction with the Fund influences how officials and policymakers internalize the meaning of political management. On the other hand, if the Government has access to the IMF's seal of approval, the State will be again in a position to re-enter the financial market and go back into debt to face external debt. This means that private creditors increase the chances of collecting the debt and, again, grant credits. Thus, it is argued that the borrowing country submits to the relationship with the IMF in search of the latter's economic and symbolic capital. Access to this symbolic capital has objective and subjective repercussions at the national level that might tend to reproduce the relevance of the financial market and legitimizes the IMF’s intervention during economic crises. The paper has Argentina as its case study, given its historical relationship with the IMF and the relevance of the current indebtedness period, which remains largely unexplored. Argentina’s economy is characterized by recurrent financial crises, and it is the country to which the Fund has lent the most in its entire history. It surpasses more than three times the second, Egypt. In addition, Argentina is currently the country that owes the most to the Fund after receiving the largest loan ever granted by the IMF in 2018, and a new agreement in 2022. While the historical strong association with the Fund culminated in the most acute economic and social crisis in the country’s contemporary history, producing an unprecedented political and institutional crisis in 2001, Argentina still recognized the IMF as the only way out during economic crises.

Keywords: IMF, fields theory, symbolic power, Argentina, Bourdieu

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Authors: Geetanjali Sharma

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There are always provincial variations which deserve more detailed treatment. Before the arrival of modern era, geography and cultural homogeneity were determining factors of human habitat and migration. Boundaries as if we see them, did not exist earlier. The connectivity of the world was also different as of now. The reinforcement of the old silk route will improve economic cooperation and connectivity between Asian, European and African countries, but obviously, it is designed to improve China’s geopolitical and geostrategic position in the world. The paper is based on the secondary sources of data. Analytical and historical approach has been used to clarify the ties between the old silk routes and new One-Belt-One-Road initiative China. The paper begins with an explanation of the historical background of the old Silk Route, its origin and development, trailed by an analysis of latest declarations by the Chinese leaders to revive it. It also discusses the impacts of this initiative on India’s economy and cultural exchange between associated regions. Lastly, the paper sums up the findings and suggestions for keeping a balance between the security and economic relationship between the countries. It concludes that the silk route is an effort in commencing a ‘grand strategy’ for global trade and cooperation with hidden objectives of China to increase the investment of China in other continents as well. The revival of silk route may prove to be a very helpful in reinforcing cooperation and raising it to a new level of economic establishments. However, China has yet to promote the much-needed political and strategic trust.

Keywords: OBOR (One-Belt-One-Road), geopolitics, economic relation, security concerns

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Authors: H. Malachova, A. Oulehlova, D. Rezac

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Crisis preparedness training is the best possible strategy for identifying weak points, understanding vulnerability, and finding possible strategies for mitigation of blackout consequences. Training represents an effective tool for developing abilities and skills to cope with crisis situations. This article builds on the results of the research carried out in the field of preparation, realization, process, and impacts of training on subjects of energy sector critical infrastructure as a part of crisis preparedness. The research has revealed that the subjects of energy sector critical infrastructure have not realized training and therefore are not prepared for the restoration of the energy supply and black start after blackout regardless of the fact that most subjects state blackout and subsequent black start as key dangers. Training, together with mutual communication and processed crisis documentation, represent a basis for successful solutions for dealing with emergency situations. This text presents the suggested model of SIMEX simulator as a tool which supports managing crisis situations, containing training environment. Training models, possibilities of constructive simulation making use of non-aggregated as well as aggregated entities and tools of communication channels of individual simulator nodes have been introduced by the article.

Keywords: communication, energetic critical infrastructure, training, simulation

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Authors: Philip Robert Alldritt

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The continuing increase in human migration is at crisis levels in all areas of the planet. The causes are varied, and the risks are high for the migrants. Migration has been ongoing since the beginning of human emergence on the planet, but for the first time in our historic memory has the, migration reached this level of critical mass. The causes are many. Climate collapse, economic opportunity, drug cartel activity, political upheaval, and gang wars. Many locations are seemingly “within reach” of the migrants, and the push factors are so loaded with hopelessness that almost anyone would be willing to risk anything to improve their conditions. There is no argument about that mass migrations are occurring and will increase in the future. The solutions to this increase are complex. This paper will examine the causes of migration and attempt to provide some reasonable solutions to mitigate the migrations with equitable outcomes that may guide immigration policy in impacted areas.

Keywords: immigration, crisis, climate, cartels

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Authors: Muhittin Fatih Demirhan, Sibel Alapala Demirhan

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Agriculture, is also regarded as the primary activity area in all economies. When international comparisons are made Turkey has comparative advantages in agricultural potential. However, it is diffi cult to say that Turkey's agricultural productivity and use of technology is well developed in terms of sufficieny. Turkey, in terms of agricultural production, is one of the rare self-sufficient countries, but for supplying excessive demand of its domesticproduction to foreign markets to obtain the necessary income it is rather insufficient. On the basis of wrong policies implemented during the crisis and found that bottlenecks in agriculture and animal husbandry or agriculture policies of the IMF and World Bank are imposed on countries like Turkey. The IMF and the World Bank, the reduction of support in the agricultural and livestock Turkey, is known to put pressure for the abolition. Under these circumstances, our farmers, livestock producers and breeders of, not a chance to compete in the same market with EU producers. Animal products that capture the productivity levels of developed countries, seems to be our chance to compete with the quality and hygiene criteria. Thus, the discussion of the issue must be raised as for the sector's contribution to the economy in terms of further increasing production of the existing potential in mobilization.

Keywords: agricultural development, animal production, competition, economic crisis, food supply

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Authors: R. Conde

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The Brazilian economic projections and social indicators show a future of crisis for the country. Solutions to avoid this crisis scenario are necessary. Several developed countries implement initiatives linked to sustainability, mainly related to the circular economy, to solve their crises quickly - green recovery. This article aims to assess social gains if Brazil followed the same recovery strategy. Furthermore, with the use of data presented and recognized in the international academic society, the number of jobs that can be created, if Brazil took the first steps towards a more circular economy, was found. Moreover, in addition to the gross value in the number of jobs created, this article also detailed the number of these jobs by type of activity (collection, processing, and manufacturing) and by type of material.

Keywords: circular economy, green recovery, job creation, social gains

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Authors: Priyal Sepaha

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A refugee crisis is manifested by challenges, both for the refugees and the asylum giving state. The situation turns into a mega-crisis when the situation is prejudicially handled by the home state, inappropriate refugee laws, exploding refugee population, and above all, no hope of any foreseeable solution or remedy. This paper studies the impact on the capability of stateless Rohingyas to migrate and seek refuge due to the enforcement of rigid criteria of movement imposed both by Myanmar as well as the adjoining countries in the name of national security. This theoretical study identifies the issues and the key factors and players which have precipitated the crisis. It further discusses the possible ramifications in the home, asylum giving, and the adjoining countries for not discharging their roles aptly. Additionally, an attempt has been made to understand the scarce response given to the impending crisis by the regional organizations like SAARC, ASEAN and CHOGAM as well as international organizations like United Nations Human Rights Council, Security Council, Office of High Commissioner for Refugees and so on, in the name of inadequacy of monetary funds and physical resources. Based on the refugee laws and practices pertaining to the case of Rohingyas, this paper analyses that the Rohingya Crisis is in dire need of an effective action plan to curb and resolve the biggest humanitarian crisis situation of the century. This mounting human tragedy can be mitigated permanently, by strengthening existing and creating new interdependencies among all stakeholders, as further ignorance can drive the countries of the Indian Sub-continent, in particular, and South East Asia, by and large into a violent civil war for seizing long-awaited civil rights by the marginalized Rohingyas. To curb this mass crisis, it will require the application of coercive pressure and diplomatic pursuance on the home country to acknowledge the rights of its fleeing citizens. This further necessitates mustering adequate monetary funds and physical resources for the asylum providing state. Additional challenges such as devising mechanisms for the refugee’s safe return, comprehensive planning for their holistic economic development and rehabilitation plan are needed. These, however, can only come into effect with a conscious strive by the regional and international community to fulfil their assigned role.

Keywords: asylum, citizenship, crisis, humanitarian, human rights, refugee, rohingya

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Authors: A. Beril Tugrul

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Demand on production and thereby the global need of energy is growing continuously. Each country has different trends on energy demand and supply according to their geopolitical and geographical locations, underground reserves, weather conditions and level of industrialization. Conventional energy resources such as oil, gas and coal –in other words fossil resources- remain dominant on primary energy supply in spite of causing of environmental problems. Energy supply and demand securities are essential within the energy importing and exporting countries. This concept affected all sectors, but especially impressed on political aspects of the countries and also global economic views.

Keywords: energy policy, energy economics, energy strategy, global trends, petro-dollar recycling

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Authors: Mohammad Q. M. Momani

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The objective of this study is to examine whether the value relevance of ownership structure changed as the Amman Stock Exchange market conditions changed. Using data from 2005 to 2014, the study finds that the performance of portfolios that contain firms with concentrated ownership structure declines significantly during the post-crisis period. These portfolios exhibit poor performance relative to portfolios that contain firms with dispersed ownership structure during the post-crisis period. The results argue that uninspired performance of the Amman Stock Exchange during the post-crisis period, increased the incentives for controlling shareholders to expropriate. Investors recognized these incentives and discounted firms that were more likely to expropriate.

Keywords: value relevance, ownership structure, portfolio performance, Jordan, ASE

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Authors: Bilge Afşar, Zeynep Karaçor, Burcu Guvenek

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The aim of this study is to examine and analyze the effect of macroeconomic policies on foreign trade. In the study, the effect of the macroeconomic policies applied in Turkey after 2001 on foreign trade was scrutinized carrying out a survey study in the sample of the province Konya. In the survey study, the survey was administered to a total of 209 exporter firms, which are the members of Konya Chamber of Commerce. While 51 of the firms, to which the survey was administered, exported below $ 100,000, 158 of them are the firms exporting above $ 100,000. Survey was realized in the way of face to face interview with the firms in the rate of 79%. 47% of the institutions forming the mass were reached. In forming survey questionnaire, in general, 5-point Likert scale was used. In order to assess the study results, SPSS 15 package program was utilized. In the survey, foreign trade activities of the firms in Konya were analyzed; and the problems they face, while performing foreign trade, and those needing to be carried out for increasing foreign trade volume of Konya were revealed by determining how and at what degree they were affected from the macroeconomic policies applied. Thus, foreign trade structure and state of the province Konya were attempted to be analyzed. In the survey study, it emerges that although the problems Konya faces in foreign trade overlap with the problems across Turkey, the province Konya seems to be affected relatively less from the last crisis with its equity capital in either trade or other areas. Until the year 2008, while Konya is in a position of the province continuously increasing its export, also with the effect of global crisis, in 2009, a fall was seen in the amount of export. The results emerging in the survey study also confirm this case. In parallel with demand inadequacy and recession all over the world, firms experience trouble. However, again according to our survey result, foreign market weight of firms shifted from EU countries to Russia, East Bloc, and Middle East countries. This prevented Konya from negative affecting from EU crisis at maximum level. That is, Russian and Middle East market express significance for Konya. That market is diversified, and being relatively rid of dependence to EU is extremely important in terms of Konya export.

Keywords: economy, foreign trade, economic crise, macro economic politicies

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Authors: Maria Angela Bedini, Fabio Bronzini

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Most of the Italian territory is at seismic risk. Many earthquakes have hit Italy, and devastating effects have been generated. The specific objective of the research is to distinguish the negative approaches that have generated unacceptable social situations of marginalization, abandonment, and economic regression, from positive methodological approaches. On the basis of the different situations examined, the study proposes strategies and guidelines to obtain the best possible results, in Italy or abroad, in the event of new earthquakes. At national and international level, many theoretical studies address the aspects of prevention, while the comparisons, carried out in this study, between the techniques and the operative procedures applied and the results obtained are rare. The adopted methodology compares the different pre-earthquake urban-planning approaches, for the emergency (temporary urban planning), and for the post-earthquake (socio-economic-territorial processes) in Italy. Attention is placed on the current consolidated planning and programming acquisitions, pre and post-earthquake. The main results of the study concern the prospects in Italy of protection from seismic risks in the next decades. An integrated settlement system for a new economic and social model, aimed at the rebirth of territories in crisis, is proposed. Finally, the conclusions describe the disciplinary positions, procedures and the fundamental points generally shared by the scientific community for each approach, in order to identify the strategic choices and the disciplinary and management paths that will be followed in the coming decades.

Keywords: post-earthquake, seismic emergency, seismic prevention, urban planning interventions in Italy

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Authors: Fernando Martín-Espejo, Christophe Crombez

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This paper presents a political-economic analysis of the reforms introduced during the coronavirus crisis at the EU level with a special emphasis on the recovery fund Next Generation EU (NGEU). It also introduces a spatial model to evaluate whether the governmental features of the recovery fund can be framed inside the community method. Particularly, by evaluating the brake clause in the NGEU legislation, this paper analyses theoretically the political and legislative implications of the introduction of flexibility clauses in the EU decision-making process.

Keywords: EU, legislative procedures, spatial model, coronavirus

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Authors: Inka Maria Vilhelmiina Hiltunen

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The crisis of liberal democracy has been recognized from many sites of political literature; scholars of Marxist critical political economy and deliberative democracy, as well as critics of neoliberalism, have become concerned about how either the rise of populism and authoritarianism, institutional decline or the overarching economic rationality erode political democratic citizenship in favor of economic technocracy or conservative protectionism. However, even if these bodies of literature recognize the generalized crisis that haunts Western democracies, dialogue between them has been very limited. That said, drawing from contemporary Marxist perspectives, this article aims at bridging the gap between the criticism of neoliberalism and theories of deliberative democracy. The first section starts by outlining what is meant by neoliberalism, liberal democracy, and the crisis of liberal democracy. The next section explores how contemporary capitalism acts upon society and transforms it. It introduces Jurgen Habermas’ thesis of the ‘colonization of the lifeworld’, Wendy Brown’s analysis of neoliberal rationality and Étienne Balibar’s concepts of ‘absolute capitalism’ and ‘total subsumption,’ that the essay aims at connecting in the last section. The third section is concerned with the deliberative democratic theory and practice. The section highlights the qualitative socio-political impacts of deliberation, as predicted by theorists and shown by empirical studies. The last section draws from contemporary Marxist perspectives to examine the question if deliberative democratic theories and practices can resolve the crisis of liberal democracy in the current financially driven era of neoliberal capitalism. By asking this question, the essay aims to consider what is required to reverse the current global trend of rising inequality. If liberal democracy has declined towards commodified and reactionary forms of politics and if ‘market rationality’ has shaped social agency to the extent that politicians and the public struggle to imagine ‘any alternatives’, the most urgent political task is to bring to life a new political imagination based on democratic ideals of equality, inclusivity, reciprocity, and solidarity, that thereby enables the revision of the transnational institutional design. This part focuses on the hegemonic role of finance and money. The essay concludes by stating that the implementation of substantive global democracy must start from the dissolution of the hegemony of finance, centered on U.S., and from the remaking of the conditions of socioeconomic reproduction world-wide. However, given the still present overarching neoliberal status quo, the essay is skeptical of the ideological feasibility of this remaking.

Keywords: deliberative democracy, criticism of neoliberalism, marxist political economy, crisis of liberal democracy

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Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili

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There are a number of factors that determine the growth and development of the country's economy; however, trade and economic relations with other countries are the most important of all these factors. The paper analyzes the trade and economic relations between Georgia and Germany, identifies the impediments caused by the Covid pandemic, and substantiates the need for further economic cooperation between the countries. Research objectives. The objective of the research is to develop recommendations and reveal the prospects of further cooperation between Georgia and Germany based on identifying the problems in the field of trade and economy in the post-crisis situation. The research object is Georgian German economic relations. Germany is Georgia's largest trading partner in the European Union. Georgia and Germany actively cooperate within the framework of international organizations as well. The paper analyzes the multilateral and intensive economic relations between Germany and Georgia; evaluates the investments of German companies in Georgia and the activities of Georgian companies in Germany. Research methods. The paper uses general and specific research methods; in particular, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparison, statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend), and other research methods.SWOT analysis is used to determine development opportunities between countries. As a result of the research economic ranking of Georgia and Germany are determined according to the above criteria, the causes of the impediments due to the pandemic are studied; the main problems in the field of trade and economy are identified. The paper provides conclusions on the problems in the trade relations between Georgia and Germany and suggests recommendations regarding the prospects for improving these relations.

Keywords: georgia-germany, trade and economic relations, economic ranking, perspective directions

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Authors: Zhao Xinlei

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In general, interstate relations are diverse and include economic, political, military, and diplomatic. Therefore, by analyzing the development of the relationship between Malaysia and China, we can better verify how the Hirschman effect works between small countries and great powers. This paper mainly adopts qualitative research methods and uses Malaysia's 2020-2022 political crisis as a specific case to verify the practice of the Hirschman effect between small and large countries. In particular, the interest groups in small countries that are closely related to trade with extraordinary abilities, as the primary beneficiaries in the development of trade between the two countries, although they may use their resources to a certain extent to influence the decisions of small countries towards great powers, they do not fundamentally determine the small countries' response to large countries. In this process, the relative power asymmetry between states plays a dominant role, as small states lack trust and suspicion in political diplomacy towards large states based on the perception of threat arising from the relative power asymmetry. When developing bilateral relations with large countries, small states seek practical cooperation to promote economic and trade development but become more cautious in their political ties to avoid being caught in power struggles between large states or being controlled by them. The case of Malaysia-China relations also illustrates that despite the ongoing political crisis in Malaysia, which saw the country go through the transition from (Perikatan Nasional) PN to (Barisan Nasional) BN, different governments have maintained a pragmatic and proactive economic policy towards China to reduce suspicion and mistrust between the two countries in political and diplomatic affairs, thereby enhancing cooperation and interactions between the two countries. At the same time, the Malaysian government is developing multi-dimensional foreign relations and actively participating in multilateral, regional organizations and platforms, such as those organized by the United States, to maintain a relative balance in the influence of the US and China on Malaysia.

Keywords: Hirschman effect, interest groups, Malaysia, China, bilateral relations

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Authors: Ahmed A. A. Fadol, Guangji Tong, Wlaa Mohamed

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This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of food insecurity in Sudan, focusing on consumption patterns and their implications, employing the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) assessment framework. Years of conflict and economic instability have driven large segments of the population in Sudan into crisis levels of acute food insecurity according to the (IPC). A substantial number of people are estimated to currently face emergency conditions, with an additional sizeable portion categorized under less severe but still extreme hunger levels. In this study, we explore the multifaceted nature of food insecurity in Sudan, considering its historical, political, economic, and social dimensions. An analysis of consumption patterns and trends was conducted, taking into account cultural influences, dietary shifts, and demographic changes. Furthermore, we employ logistic regression and random forest analysis to identify significant independent variables influencing food security status in Sudan. Random forest clearly outperforms logistic regression in terms of area under curve (AUC), accuracy, precision and recall. Forward projections of the IPC for Sudan estimate that 15 million individuals are anticipated to face Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity conditions between October 2023 and February 2024. Of this, 60% are concentrated in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Khartoum State, with Greater Darfur alone representing 29% of this total. These findings emphasize the urgent need for both short-term humanitarian aid and long-term strategies to address Sudan's deepening food insecurity crisis.

Keywords: food insecurity, consumption patterns, logistic regression, random forest analysis

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

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The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system

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Authors: Ana Mouro, Ana Ramalheira

Abstract:

Since 1989, with the Fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany has undergone a profound restructuring political and economic process. When the Euro Crisis broke out, Germany was no longer the “sick man” of Europe. Instead, it had recovered its dominance as the strongest and wealthiest economy within the European Union. With the European Debt Crisis, that has been taking place in the European Union since the end of 2009, Germany´s Chancellor Angela Merkel has gained the power of deciding, so to say, on the fate of the debtor nations, but she neither stands for binding German commitments, nor refuses assistance. A debate on whether Merkel’s hesitation has been deliberated and used as a means of coercion has arisen on international print media, and the Portuguese Press has been no exception. This study, which was conducted by using news reporting, opinion articles, interviews and editorials, published in the Portuguese weekly Expresso and the daily Público, from 2008 to 2015, tries to show how Merkel’s hesitation, depicted in the press by the term “Merkiavelli”, was perceived in Portugal, a country that had to embrace the austerity measures, imposed by the European Central Bank, but defined under Angela Merkel´s leading role.

Keywords: Euro crisis, “Merkiavelli”, cultural studies, Portuguese quality press

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Authors: Joanna Stawska

Abstract:

The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of interest rates on investments in Poland in the context of financial crisis. The paper also investigates the dependence of bank loans to enterprises on interbank market rates. The article studies the impact of interbank market rate on the level of investments in Poland. Besides, this article focuses on the research of the correlation between the level of corporate loans and the amount of investments in Poland in order to determine the indirect impact of central bank interest rates through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on the real economy. To achieve the objective we have used econometric and statistical research methods like: econometric model and Pearson correlation coefficient. This analysis suggests that the central bank reference rate inversely proportionally affects the level of investments in Poland and this dependence is moderate. This is also important issue because it is related to preparing of Poland to accession to euro area. The research is important from both theoretical and empirical points of view. The formulated conclusions and recommendations determine the practical significance of the paper which may be used in the decision making process of monetary and economic authorities of the country.

Keywords: central bank, financial crisis, interest rate, investments

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Authors: Sogo Angel Olofinbiyi

Abstract:

There have been widespread assumptions across the globe that the root cause of Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria is religious rather than socio-economic. An investigation into this dichotomy allowed this study to fully demonstrate that the root cause of Boko Haram’s terrorist actions emanates from the non-fulfillment of socio-economic goals that are prompted by the violation of fundamental human rights, corruption, poverty, unconstitutional and undemocratic practices in the northern part of the Nigerian state. To achieve its aim of establishing the root cause of the terrorism crisis in the latter country, the study critically appraised the socio-economic context of the insurgency by adopting one-on-one in-depth interviews involving forty (40) participants to interrogate the phenomenon. Empirical evidence from the study demonstrated that the evolution of Boko Haram terrorism was a response to socio-economic phlebotomy, political and moral putrescence, and the dehumanization of people that stem from a combination of decades of mismanagement and pervasive corruption by various Nigerian leaders. The study concludes that, as long as the endemic socio-economic problems caused by global capitalism vis-a-vis unequal hegemonic power exchange as expressed in socio-political, ethno-religious and cultural forms persist in the Nigerian society, the terrorism insurgency will recur and remain an inevitable enterprise and indeed a normal social reaction to every undesirable state of affairs. Based on the findings, the study urges the need for the amelioration of the conditions of the vast majority of the Nigerian populace by making socio-economic facilities available to them through the political state.

Keywords: Boko Haram Terrorism, insurgency, socio-economic, religious injunctions

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Authors: B. Waked Najar

Abstract:

Since the spread of Covid- 19, Israel and other countries suffer from lockdowns and social distance, which impose different kinds of restrictions. On the one side, many organization closed and unemployment increased, bringing about economic problems and distress. On the other side, family ties were damaged due to inability to sustain close relations with some family members and too frequent interactions with others. Unfortunately, conflicts within families, controlling behavior and domestic violence appear more often. Purpose: to examine the phenomenon of domestic violence and its expansion during the Covid-19 crisis, to propose and classify strategies of dealing with it, including encouragement of public systems providing more information and support to domestic violence victims. Methodology: the author strives to reveal methods of supporting domestic violence victims through public and private treatment organizations. The author interviewed battered women and families who experienced violence during the Covid-19 crisis. Findings: victims of domestic violence often feel isolated and helpless. It is a real challenge to track and support them, especially in the traditional minorities’ communities. Research limitations: Many families refused to be interviewed because they did not want to be exposed to the community, especially religious families. Originality: research is aimed to examine a phenomenon of domestic violence during the Covid-19 crisis and methods of help and support the victims, which is not a common theme of research during the pandemic.

Keywords: violence, coronavirus, domestic violence, influence

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Authors: M. G. Shilina

Abstract:

The interstate economic interaction phenomenon is complex. ‘Economic integration’, as one of its types, can be explored through the prism of international law, the theories of the world economy, politics and international relations. The most objective study of the phenomenon requires a comprehensive multifactoral approach. In new geopolitical realities, the problems of coexistence and possible interconnection of various mechanisms of interstate economic interaction are actively discussed. Currently, the Eurasian continent states support the direction to economic integration. At the same time, the existing international economic law fragmentation in Eurasia is seen as the important problem. The Eurasian space is characterized by a various types of interstate relations: international agreements (multilateral and bilateral), and a large number of cooperation formats (from discussion platforms to organizations aimed at deep integration). For their harmonization, it is necessary to have a clear vision to the phased international economic relations regulation options. In the conditions of rapid development of international economic relations, the modeling (including prognostic) can be optimally used as the main scientific method for presenting the phenomenon. On the basis of this method, it is possible to form the current situation vision and the best options for further action. In order to determine the most objective version of the integration development, the combination of several approaches were used. The normative legal approach- the descriptive method of legal modeling- was taken as the basis for the analysis. A set of legal methods was supplemented by the international relations science prognostic methods. The key elements of the model are the international economic organizations and states' associations existing in the Eurasian space (the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the European Union (EU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Chinese project ‘One belt-one road’ (OBOR), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), BRICS, etc.). A general term for the elements of the model is proposed - the interstate interaction mechanisms (IIM). The aim of building a model of current and future Eurasian economic integration is to show optimal options for joint economic development of the states and IIMs. The long-term goal of this development is the new economic and political space, so-called the ‘Great Eurasian Community’. The process of achievement this long-term goal consists of successive steps. Modeling the integration architecture and dividing the interaction into stages led us to the following conclusion: the SCO is able to transform Eurasia into a single economic space. Gradual implementation of the complex phased model, in which the SCO+ plays a key role, will allow building an effective economic integration for all its participants, to create an economically strong community. The model can have practical value for politicians, lawyers, economists and other participants involved in the economic integration process. A clear, systematic structure can serve as a basis for further governmental action.

Keywords: economic integration, The Eurasian Economic Union, The European Union, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, The Silk Road Economic Belt

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Authors: Katrina Angeline Santos, Francis Mark Fernandez, Francheska Esmao

Abstract:

Intervention is defined as a forcible interference by a state or states with power in the affairs of another state using force or the threat of force. On the other hand, a military intervention is an intervention, specifically used to define an intervention which uses force. With these, the authors realized a lack in the concept of intervention wherein it is an invited one.The authors wrote this paper to introduce a concept of intervention wherein the intervening state is offering assistance to the state in crisis which asked for one. The authors decided to make a contextual description of this phenomenon because of the lack of concepts regarding intervention between the idea of a single state performing a ‘heroic’ role of intervening in the crisis of another state. The problem that the authors would like to address is regarding the lack of availability in the concept of intervention wherein the state in crisis is seeking the assistance of another state. The authors utilized a contextual description approach to the study through the descriptive presentation of the series of events, by utilizing the news articles and news reports published, which happened in Ukraine and Crimea. This concept is further demonstrated through the utilization of a conceptual framework which shows the mutual relationship between the states. From the analysis of the behavior of Russia and its role in the Crimean Crisis 2014, the authors are able to coin the term, 'Caped Intervention' to describe an intervention of a state as a response to the invitation of assistance of a state in crisis in order for them to achieve their goals. This concept entails a mutual relationship between an intervening state and a sate in crisis. The concept of Caped Intervention describes the role of Russia as a Caped State or an intervening state observed through its action towards Crimea. This concept will help in the observation of the behavior of actors or states in events such as this. It will further help in analyzing the actors’ role in intervention by making it possible to classify the intervening acts into another concept.

Keywords: assistance, caped intervention, crisis, heroic

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Authors: Doki Naomi Onyeje, Doki Gowon Ama

Abstract:

The past 4 years have been traumatic for Nigerians, having to deal with a number of complex economic issues with dire consequences for the economy. Households have had to respond variously to some of these problems in peculiar ways, depending, of course, on the nature and character of a particular shock. The type, magnitude, intensity and duration of a particular shock might be the determinant of different household responses. While households’ responses to the Global Financial Crisis and Covid 19 Pandemic have been documented by researchers, other economic shocks have continued to emerge in Nigeria. The dramatic turn of events since coming on board of the new government on May 29th 2023, has introduced a new economic twist that households will have to adjust to. This study, therefore, sets out to examine household responses by disaggregating them by their livelihood sources. A survey of 420 households across North Central Nigeria will be done to generate information on the respective responses. A Multinomial logit regression analysis will be employed to test the hypothesis that livelihood source(s) influences household responses to economic shocks. Consequently, responses from public and private households will be examined. The expected results should be that household responses might have some similarities, but it is expected that some peculiar responses across groups will emerge and these differences will guide for group-specific interventions. The Theatre for Development (TfD) approach will be used to disseminate and propagate results from this study to and among stakeholders for effective policy frameworks.

Keywords: drama, dynamics, economic shocks, household responses, Nigeria

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