Search results for: fire probabilistic risk assessment

Authors: Majid Arvan, Peyman Beygi, Sina Rokhsati

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In-time detection of fire in buildings is of great importance. Employing intelligent methods in data processing in fire detection systems leads to a significant reduction of fire damage at lowest cost. In this paper, the raw data obtained from the fire detection sensor networks in buildings is processed by using intelligent methods based on neural networks and the likelihood of fire happening is predicted. In order to enhance the quality of system, the noise in the sensor data is reduced by analyzing wavelets and applying SVD technique. Meanwhile, the proposed neural network is trained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). In the simulation work, the data is collected from sensor network inside the room and applied to the proposed network. Then the outputs are compared with conventional MLP network. The simulation results represent the superiority of the proposed method over the conventional one.

Keywords: intelligent fire detection, neural network, particle swarm optimization, fire sensor network

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Authors: Mohsin Ali Shaikh, Weiguo Song, Rehmat Karim, Muhammad Kashan Surahio, Muhammad Usman Shahid

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Fire investigations face challenges due to the complexity of fire development, and real-world accidents lack repeatability, making it difficult to apply standardized approaches. The unpredictable nature of fires and the unique conditions of each incident contribute to the complexity, requiring innovative methods and tools for effective analysis and reconstruction. This study proposes to provide the modern accident analysis model through numerical reconstruction for fire investigation in textile buildings. This method employs computer simulation to enhance the overall effectiveness of textile-building investigations. The materials and evidence collected from past incidents reconstruct fire occurrences, progressions, and catastrophic processes. The approach is demonstrated through a case study involving a tragic textile factory fire in Karachi, Pakistan, which claimed 257 lives. The reconstruction method proves invaluable for determining fire origins, assessing losses, establishing accountability, and, significantly, providing preventive insights for complex fire incidents.

Keywords: fire investigation, numerical simulation, fire safety, fire incident, textile building

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Authors: Ilzira A. Minigalieva

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Assessment of cumulative health risks associated with the widely observed combined exposures to two or more metals and their compounds on the organism in industrial or general environment, as well as respective regulatory and technical risk management decision-making have presumably the theoretical and experimental toxicology of mixtures as their reliable scientific basis. Analysis of relevant literature and our own experience proves, however, that there is no full match between these different practices. Moreover, some of the contradictions between them are of a fundamental nature. This unsatisfactory state of things may be explained not only by unavoidable simplifications characteristic of the methodologies of risk assessment and permissible exposure standards setting but also by the extreme intrinsic complexity of the combined toxicity theory, the most essential issues of which are considered and briefly discussed in this paper.

Keywords: toxic metals, nanoparticles, typology of combined toxicity, mathematical modeling, health risk assessment and management

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Authors: Chung-Hao Wu, Tung-Dju Lin, Ming-Chin Ho, Minehiro Nishiyama

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This paper discusses reported fire tests of concrete beams and columns, future fire tests of beam/column frames, and an innovative concept for designing a beam/column furnace. The proposed furnace could be designed to maximize the efficiency of fire test procedures and minimize the cost of furnace construction and fuel consumption. ASTM E119 and ISO 834 standards were drafted based on prescriptive codes and have several weaknesses. The first involves a provision allowing the support regions of a test element to be protected from fire exposure. The second deals with the L/30 deflection end point instead of the structural end point (collapse) in order to protect the hydraulic rams from fire damage. Furthermore, designers commonly use the measured fire endurances of interior columns to assess fire ratings of edge and corner columns of the same building. The validity of such an engineering practice is theoretically unsound. Performance-Based Codes (PBC) require verification tests of structural frames including the beam/column joints to overcome these weaknesses but allow the use of element test data as reference only. In the last 30 years, PBC have gained global popularity because the innovative design and flexibility in achieving an ultimate performance goal.

Keywords: fire resistance, concrete structure, beam/column frame, fire tests

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Authors: Ki-Seok Kwon, Heung-Youl Kim

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This research evaluated fire resistances of high-strengthened reinforced concrete (RC) column, spiral wire rope which applied with 60, and 100MPa. The fire resistance test of RC column with loading condition was conducted following the ISO 834 (3 hours). This experiment set mixing of fiber (PP fiber, Steel fiber) and types of horizontal reinforcement as a variable of reinforcement method. The fire resistance test measured the main steel bar’s max and mean temperatures also the shrinkage and shrinking ratio of columns(500 X 500 X 3,000mm) with loadings. As a result, the specimen of 60MPa attained three hours fire resistance with only spiral wire rope. Also, the specimen of 100MPa must be reinforced with fibers and spiral wire rope to attain three hours fire resistance.

Keywords: reinforced concrete column, high strength concrete, wire rope, fire resistance test

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Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

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This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

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Authors: Tassadit Tabouche

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Water sprays pattern, and water droplets size (different droplets diameter) are a key factors in the success of the suppression by water spray. The effects of the two important factors are investigated in this study. However, the fire extinguishing mechanism in such devices is not well understood due to the complexity of the physical and chemical interactions between water spray and fire plume. in this study, 3D, unsteady, two phase flow CFD simulation approach is introduced to provide a quantitative analysis of the complex interactions occurring between water spray and fire plume. Lagrangian Discrete Phase Model (DPM) was used for water droplets and a global one-step reaction mechanism in combustion model was used for fire plume.

Keywords: droplets, water spray, water droplets size, 3D

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Authors: Omair Ghori, Anton Stadler, Stefan Wilk, Wolfgang Effelsberg

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Fire-related incidents account for extensive loss of life and material damage. Quick and reliable detection of occurring fires has high real world implications. Whereas a major research focus lies on the detection of outdoor fires, indoor camera-based fire detection is still an open issue. Cameras in combination with computer vision helps to detect flames and smoke more quickly than conventional fire detectors. In this work, we present a computer vision-based smoke detection algorithm based on contrast changes and a multi-step classification. This work accelerates computer vision-based fire detection considerably in comparison with classical indoor-fire detection.

Keywords: contrast analysis, early fire detection, video smoke detection, video surveillance

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Authors: Thi Thao Nguyen, Andrew McLennan, Shino Takayama

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We study the probabilistic allocation of finitely many indivisible objects to finitely many agents. Well known allocation rules for this problem include random priority, the market mechanism proposed by Hylland and Zeckhauser [1979], and the probabilistic serial rule of Bogomolnaia and Moulin [2001]. We propose a new allocation rule, which we call the lexico-graphic (serial) rule, that is tailored for situations in which each agent's primary concern is to maximize the probability of receiving her favourite object. Three axioms, lex efficiency, lex envy freeness and fairness, are proposed and fully characterize the lexicographic serial rule. We also discuss how our axioms and the lexicographic rule are related to other allocation rules, particularly the probabilistic serial rule.

Keywords: Efficiency, Envy free, Lexicographic, Probabilistic Serial Rule

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Authors: J. Tamosaitiene

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The article focuses on the identification and classification of key risk management criteria that represent the most important sustainability aspects of the construction industry. The construction sector is one of the most important sectors in Lithuania. Nowadays, the assessment of the risk level of a construction project is especially important for the quality of construction projects, the growth of enterprises and the sector. To establish the most important criteria for successful growth of the sector, a questionnaire for experts was developed. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the expert judgement method and other multicriteria decision making (MCDM) methods were used to develop the hybrid model. The results were used to develop an integrated knowledge system for the measurement of a risk level particular to construction projects. The article presents a practical case that details the developed system, sustainable aspects, and risk assessment.

Keywords: risk, system, model, construction

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Authors: Bum Yean Cho, Heung-Youl Kim, Ki-Seok Kwon, Kang-Su Kim

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In this study, a full-scale test and analysis (numerical analysis) of fire resistance performance of bare CFT column on which slot was used instead of existing welding method to connect the steel pipe on the concrete-filled tube were conducted. Welded CFT column is known to be vulnerable to high or low temperature because of low brittleness of welding part. As a result of a fire resistance performance test of slot CFT column after removing the welding part and fixing it by a slot which was folded into the tube, slot type CFT column indicated the improved fire resistance performance than welded CFT column by 28% or more. And as a result of conducting finite element analysis of slot type column using ABAQUS, analysis result proved the reliability of the test result in predicting the fire behavior and fire resistance hour.

Keywords: CFT (concrete-filled tube) column, fire resistance performance, slot, weld

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Authors: Idris Haruna Muhammad, Okorie Austine Uche

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This paper presents a study on reliability of shear connector exposed to fire situation in accordance with Eurocode 4. The reliability analysis i reliability analysis is based on First Order Second Moment Integration Technique (FOSMIT) using FORM 5. Performance functions for shear connector are derived for normal and under fire condition and their implied safety levels are evaluated. Four (4) design variables which include ultimate tensile strength, diameter of the stud, temperature and span of the steel beam are treated as random variables with their statistical characteristic adopted from literature. Results show that for normal condition the β – value decrease from 7.95 to 5.43 which show it is conservative in safety level for normal condition. Under fire condition, β – value decrease from 2.88 to – 0.32 with corresponding load ratio of 0.2 to 1.2. It was also shown from sensitivity assessment, that the temperature and span of the beam decrease with increase in their β – values while ultimate tensile strength and diameter of the stud increase with increase in their β – values for a given load ratio of 0.2 to 1.2.

Keywords: Composite steel beam, Fire condition, Shear stud, Sensitivity study

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Authors: Thirumila Muthukamaru

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The objective of a Health Risk Assessment (HRA) is to achieve a quality evaluation of risk assessments in a timely manner where adequate controls can be in place to protect workers health, especially during turnarounds where the exposure to health hazards is expected to rise during the performance of the many activities that take place, exposing workers to health risk. HRA development requires a competent team comprising experienced subject matter experts in the field, such as Industrial hygienists, Occupational Health Doctors, Turnaround Coordinators, Operation / Maintenance personnel, etc. The conventional way of conducting HRA is not only tedious and time-consuming but also less appreciated when it is not interpreted correctly, which may contribute to inadequate operationalization of it. Simplification can be the essence of timely intervention in managing health risks. This paper is intended as a sharing of the approach taken to simplify the methodology of developing the HRA report and operationalizing it. The approach includes developing a Generic HRA for turnaround activities to be used as a reference document and the empowerment of identified personnel through upskilling sessions to take up the role of facilitating HRA sessions. This empowerment is one of the key approaches towards the successful translation of the HRA into specific turnaround Job Hazard Analysis (JHA) that embed it in the Permit to Work (PTW) process. The approach used here increases awareness and compliance on HRA for turnaround activities through better interpretation and operationalization of the HRA report, adding value to the risk assessment for turnaround activities.

Keywords: industrial hygiene, health risk assessment, HRA, risk assessment

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Authors: Abraham O. Olaniyi, Oluyemi Oke, Atilade Otunla

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The structural performance of bridges decreases progressively throughout their service life due to many contributing factors (fatigue, carbonation, fire incidents etc.). Around the world, numerous bridges have attained their estimated service life and many have approached this limit. The structural integrity assessment of the burnt composite bridge located at CH57+450, Koita village along Abuja-Abaji-Lokoja road, Nigeria, is presented as a case study and shall be forthwith referred to as the 'Koita bridge' in this paper. From the technical evaluation, the residual compressive strength of the concrete piers was found to be below 16.0 N/mm2. This value is very low compared to the expected design value of 30.0 N/mm2. The pier capping beam at pier location 1 has a very low residual compressive strength. The cover to the reinforcement of certain capping beams has an outline of reinforcement which signifies poor concrete cover and the mean compressive strength is also less than 20.0 N/mm2. The steel girder indicated black colouration as a result of the fire incident without any significant structural defect like buckling or warping of the steel section. This paper reviews the structural integrity assessment and repair methodology of the Koita bridge; a composite bridge damaged by fire, highlighting the various challenges of limited obtainable guidance documents about the bridge. The objectives are to increase the understanding of processes and versatile equipment required to test and assess a fire-damaged bridge in order to improve the quality of structural appraisal and rehabilitation; thus, eliminating the prejudice associated with current visual inspection techniques.

Keywords: assessment, bridge, rehabilitation, sustainability

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Authors: Mara Balestrieri, Clara Pusceddu

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Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk. Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and transformations of society, and this brings other relevant factors. The reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable management of landscape. How planners relate to this problem and which aspects should be monitored in order to prepare responsible and useful interventions?

Keywords: assessment, landscape, risk, planning

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Authors: Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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Analytical probabilistic approach is an innovative approach for urban stormwater modeling. It can provide information about the long-term performance of a stormwater management facility without being computationally very demanding. This paper explores the application of the analytical probabilistic approach in New Zealand. The paper presents the results of a case study aimed at development of an objective way of identifying what constitutes a rainfall storm event and the estimation of the corresponding statistical properties of storms using two selected automatic rainfall stations located in the Auckland region in New Zealand. The storm identification and the estimation of the storm statistical properties are regarded as the first step in the development of the analytical probabilistic models. The paper provides a recommendation about the definition of the storm inter-event time to be used in conjunction with the analytical probabilistic approach.

Keywords: hydrology, rainfall storm, storm inter-event time, New Zealand, stormwater management

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Authors: Juhi Kaushik, Abhishek Agarwal, Manoj Sarda, Vatsal Sanjay, Arup Kumar Das

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Fire accidents in trains bring huge disaster to human life and property. Evacuation becomes a major challenge in such incidents owing to confined spaces, large passenger density and trains moving at high speeds. The pantry car in Indian Railways trains carry inflammable materials like cooking fuel and LPG and electrical fittings. The pantry car is therefore highly susceptible to fire accidents. Numerical simulations have been done in a pantry car of Indian locomotive train using computational fluid dynamics based software. Different scenarios of a fire outbreak have been explored by varying Heat Release Rate per Unit Area (HRRPUA) of the fire source, introduction of exhaust in the cooking area, and taking a case of an air conditioned pantry car. Temporal statures of flame and soot have been obtained for each scenario and differences have been studied and reported. Inputs from this study can be used to assess casualties in fire accidents in locomotive trains and development of smoke control/detection systems in Indian trains.

Keywords: fire propagation, flame contour, pantry fire, soot flow

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Authors: Amit Kumar Verma

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The present study deals with fire prediction model in Terai Arc Landscape, one of the most dramatic ecosystems in Asia where large, wide-ranging species such as tiger, rhinos, and elephant will thrive while bringing economic benefits to the local people. Forest fires cause huge economic and ecological losses and release considerable quantities of carbon into the air and is an important factor inflating the global burden of carbon emissions. Forest fire is an important factor of behavioral cum ecological habit of tiger in wild. Post fire changes i.e. micro and macro habitat directly affect the tiger habitat or land. Vulnerability of fire depicts the changes in microhabitat (humus, soil profile, litter, vegetation, grassland ecosystem). Microorganism like spider, annelids, arthropods and other favorable microorganism directly affect by the forest fire and indirectly these entire microorganisms are responsible for the development of tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat. On the other hand, fire brings depletion in prey species and negative movement of tiger from wild to human- dominated areas, which may leads the conflict i.e. dangerous for both tiger & human beings. Early forest fire prediction through mapping the risk zones can help minimize the fire frequency and manage forest fires thereby minimizing losses. Satellite data plays a vital role in identifying and mapping forest fire and recording the frequency with which different vegetation types are affected. Thematic hazard maps have been generated by using IDW technique. A prediction model for fire occurrence is developed for TAL. The fire occurrence records were collected from state forest department from 2000 to 2014. Disciminant function models was used for developing a prediction model for forest fires in TAL, random points for non-occurrence of fire have been generated. Based on the attributes of points of occurrence and non-occurrence, the model developed predicts the fire occurrence. The map of predicted probabilities classified the study area into five classes very high (12.94%), high (23.63%), moderate (25.87%), low(27.46%) and no fire (10.1%) based upon the intensity of hazard. model is able to classify 78.73 percent of points correctly and hence can be used for the purpose with confidence. Overall, also the model works correctly with almost 69% of points. This study exemplifies the usefulness of prediction model of forest fire and offers a more effective way for management of forest fire. Overall, this study depicts the model for conservation of tiger’s natural habitat and forest conservation which is beneficial for the wild and human beings for future prospective.

Keywords: fire prediction model, forest fire hazard, GIS, landsat, MODIS, TAL

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Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

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Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova

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Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.

Keywords: harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese

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Authors: Behzad Moeini Sam, Sara Mohammadi Avandi

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The rituals of fire among the Iranians go back to the general Proto-Indo-European and Indo-Iranian eras when they lived in regions known as the Pontic-Caspian (Indo-Europeans) and Kazakhstan (the Andronovo culture belonging to the Indo-Iranian tribes), and we can get to know about their vulgar heritage despite their separation from each other during several millennia. The early Aryan settlers of Iran had brought their cults to their new home and were bequeathed to them by their Indo-Iranian ancestors. Tradition speaks of several great sacred Iranian fires consecrated by the pre-Zoroastrian kings. Ātar or fire corresponds to the Vedic Agni Atar's functions are elaborately delineated in the Later Avesta. This paper aims to show the fire cults among the Iranian Lur tribes that originate in the past. Therefore, it will be searched for rituals in equally Indo-European and Indo-Iranian Periods and Old Iranian Texts and their frequency among the Lur tribes. In addition to the library books, we tried to interview the chiefs of Lur tribes. Finally, we concluded that the fire among the Lur Tribes is a sequence of beliefs of the Proto-Indo-European and Indo-Iranian Periods reflected in Old and Middle Iranian texts.

Keywords: Indo-European, ancient Iran, fire, Lur, Zoroastrian

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Authors: Megan Alkazoff, Charles Ruffner

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Tallgrass prairies and sand savannas, once covering northern to central Illinois, are ecosystems in need of restoration and conservation in the Midwestern United States. The Nature Conservancy manages five sites containing fragments of remaining tallgrass prairies and sand savannas within the Kankakee Sands using techniques such as prescribed burning and invasive species removal. The objective of this study was to conduct a ten-year resampling of transects established on these five sites during previous studies to assess whether the management tools applied there are helping maintain the tallgrass prairie and sand savannas. During the summer of 2020, permanent transect lines were sampled using a quadrat to determine the % Cover Class of each species rooted in the quadrat. Data gathered was analyzed using linear regression to illustrate the relationship between fire occurrence and species composition on the landscape. The fire frequency had a highly significant effect (P= 0.0025) on the species richness of all sites. The frequency of fire had a non-significant effect (P>0.05) on the Floristic Quality Index, percent C value 4-10, and bare-ground percentage of a site. These results suggest that fire on the landscape, both wild and prescribed, have increased biodiversity on all five sites but has not affected the Floristic Quality Index, percent C value 4-10, and the percentage of bare-ground on the sites.

Keywords: fire, floristic quality assessment, sand savanna, species richness, tallgrass prairie

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Authors: Sakir Tasdemir, Mustafa Altin, Gamze Fahriye Pehlivan, Sadiye Didem Boztepe Erkis, Ismail Saritas, Selma Tasdemir

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Artificial intelligence applications are commonly used in industry in many fields in parallel with the developments in the computer technology. In this study, a fire room was prepared for the resistance of wooden construction elements and with the mechanism here, the experiments of polished materials were carried out. By utilizing from the experimental data, an artificial neural network (ANN) was modeled in order to evaluate the final cross sections of the wooden samples remaining from the fire. In modelling, experimental data obtained from the fire room were used. In the system developed, the first weight of samples (ws-gr), preliminary cross-section (pcs-mm2), fire time (ft-minute), fire temperature (t-oC) as input parameters and final cross-section (fcs-mm2) as output parameter were taken. When the results obtained from ANN and experimental data are compared after making statistical analyses, the data of two groups are determined to be coherent and seen to have no meaning difference between them. As a result, it is seen that ANN can be safely used in determining cross sections of wooden materials after fire and it prevents many disadvantages.

Keywords: artificial neural network, final cross-section, fire retardant polishes, fire safety, wood resistance.

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Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov

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Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.

Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk

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Authors: Mariza Kaskara, Stella Girtsou, Maria Prodromou, Alexia Tsouni, Christodoulos Mettas, Stavroula Alatza, Kyriaki Fotiou, Marios Tzouvaras, Charalampos Kontoes, Diofantos Hadjimitsis

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Natural hazard assessment and monitoring are crucial in managing the risks associated with fires, floods, and geohazards, particularly in regions prone to these natural disasters, such as Greece and Cyprus. Recent advancements in technology, developed by the BEYOND Center of Excellence of the National Observatory of Athens, have been successfully applied in Greece and are now set to be transferred to Cyprus. The implementation of these advanced technologies in Greece has significantly improved the country's ability to respond to these natural hazards. For wildfire risk assessment, a scalar wildfire occurrence risk index is created based on the predictions of machine learning models. Predicting fire danger is crucial for the sustainable management of forest fires as it provides essential information for designing effective prevention measures and facilitating response planning for potential fire incidents. A reliable forecast of fire danger is a key component of integrated forest fire management and is heavily influenced by various factors that affect fire ignition and spread. The fire risk model is validated by the sensitivity and specificity metric. For flood risk assessment, a multi-faceted approach is employed, including the application of remote sensing techniques, the collection and processing of data from the most recent population and building census, technical studies and field visits, as well as hydrological and hydraulic simulations. All input data are used to create precise flood hazard maps according to various flooding scenarios, detailed flood vulnerability and flood exposure maps, which will finally produce the flood risk map. Critical points are identified, and mitigation measures are proposed for the worst-case scenario, namely, refuge areas are defined, and escape routes are designed. Flood risk maps can assist in raising awareness and save lives. Validation is carried out through historical flood events using remote sensing data and records from the civil protection authorities. For geohazards monitoring (e.g., landslides, subsidence), Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical satellite imagery are combined with geomorphological and meteorological data and other landslide/ground deformation contributing factors. To monitor critical infrastructures, including dams, advanced InSAR methodologies are used for identifying surface movements through time. Monitoring these hazards provides valuable information for understanding processes and could lead to early warning systems to protect people and infrastructure. Validation is carried out through both geotechnical expert evaluations and visual inspections. The success of these systems in Greece has paved the way for their transfer to Cyprus to enhance Cyprus's capabilities in natural hazard assessment and monitoring. This transfer is being made through capacity building activities, fostering continuous collaboration between Greek and Cypriot experts. Apart from the knowledge transfer, small demonstration actions are implemented to showcase the effectiveness of these technologies in real-world scenarios. In conclusion, the transfer of advanced natural hazard assessment technologies from Greece to Cyprus represents a significant step forward in enhancing the region's resilience to disasters. EXCELSIOR project funds knowledge exchange, demonstration actions and capacity-building activities and is committed to empower Cyprus with the tools and expertise to effectively manage and mitigate the risks associated with these natural hazards. Acknowledgement:Authors acknowledge the 'EXCELSIOR': ERATOSTHENES: Excellence Research Centre for Earth Surveillance and Space-Based Monitoring of the Environment H2020 Widespread Teaming project.

Keywords: earth observation, monitoring, natural hazards, remote sensing

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Authors: Francesca Marsili

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The reliability assessment of existing structures with probabilistic methods is becoming an increasingly important and frequent engineering task. However probabilistic reliability methods are based on an exhaustive knowledge of the stochastic modeling of the variables involved in the assessment; at the moment standards for the modeling of variables are absent, representing an obstacle to the dissemination of probabilistic methods. The framework according to probability distribution functions (PDFs) are established is represented by the Bayesian statistics, which uses Bayes Theorem: a prior PDF for the considered parameter is established based on information derived from the design stage and qualitative judgments based on the engineer past experience; then, the prior model is updated with the results of investigation carried out on the considered structure, such as material testing, determination of action and structural properties. The application of Bayesian statistics arises two different kind of problems: 1. The results of the updating depend on the engineer previous experience; 2. The updating of the prior PDF can be performed only if the structure has been tested, and quantitative data that can be statistically manipulated have been collected; performing tests is always an expensive and time consuming operation; furthermore, if the considered structure is an ancient building, destructive tests could compromise its cultural value and therefore should be avoided. In order to solve those problems, an interesting research path is represented by investigating Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques that can be useful for the automation of the modeling of variables and for the updating of material parameters without performing destructive tests. Among the others, one that raises particular attention in relation to the object of this study is constituted by Case-Based Reasoning (CBR). In this application, cases will be represented by existing buildings where material tests have already been carried out and an updated PDFs for the material mechanical parameters has been computed through a Bayesian analysis. Then each case will be composed by a qualitative description of the material under assessment and the posterior PDFs that describe its material properties. The problem that will be solved is the definition of PDFs for material parameters involved in the reliability assessment of the considered structure. A CBR system represent a good candi¬date in automating the modelling of variables because: 1. Engineers already draw an estimation of the material properties based on the experience collected during the assessment of similar structures, or based on similar cases collected in literature or in data-bases; 2. Material tests carried out on structure can be easily collected from laboratory database or from literature; 3. The system will provide the user of a reliable probabilistic description of the variables involved in the assessment that will also serve as a tool in support of the engineer’s qualitative judgments. Automated modeling of variables can help in spreading probabilistic reliability assessment of existing buildings in the common engineering practice, and target at the best intervention and further tests on the structure; CBR represents a technique which may help to achieve this.

Keywords: reliability assessment of existing buildings, Bayesian analysis, case-based reasoning, historical structures

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Authors: Dêivisson Alves Anjos, Blenda Fonseca Aires Teles, Queitiane Castro Costa

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Fire is one of the biggest dangers for factories, warehouses, mills, among other places, causing unimaginable damage, because besides the material damage also directly affects the lives of workers who are likely to suffer death or very serious consequences. This protection of the lives of these people should be taken seriously, always seeking safety. Thus investment in security and monitoring equipment must be high, so you can prevent or reduce the impacts of a possible fire. Our device, made in PIC micro controller monitors the temperature and the presence of gas in the environment, it sends the data via Bluetooth device to a developed in LabVIEW interface saves these data continuously and alert if the temperature exceeds the allowed or some gas is detected. Currently the device is in operation and can perform several tests, as well as use in different areas for which you need anti-fire protection.

Keywords: pic, bluetooth, fire, temperature, gas, LabVIEW

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Authors: Serkan Kocapinar, Gülay Altay

Abstract:

This study investigates the efficiency of two different industrial intumescent coatings which have different types of certifications, in the fire protection performance in steel beams in the case of ISO 834 fire for 2 hours. A better understanding of industrial intumescent coatings, which assure structural integrity and prevent a collapse of steel structures, is needed to minimize the fire risks in steel structures. A comparison and understanding of different fire protective intumescent coatings, which are Product A and Product B, are used as a thermal barrier between the steel components and the fire. Product A is tested according to EN 13381-8 and BS 476-20,22 and is certificated by ISO Standards. Product B is tested according to EN 13381-8 and ASTM UL-94 and is certificated by the Turkish Standards Institute (TSE). Generally, fire tests to evaluate the fire performance of steel components are done numerically with commercial software instead of experiments due to the high cost of an ISO 834 fire test in a furnace. Hence, there is a gap in the literature about the comparisons of different certificated intumescent coatings for fire protection in the case of ISO 834 fire in a furnace experiment for 2 hours. The experiment was carried out by using two 1-meter UPN 200 steel sections. Each one was coated by different industrial intumescent coatings. A furnace was used by the Turkish Standards Institute (TSE) for the experiment. The temperature of the protected steels and the inside of the furnace was measured with the help of 24 thermocouples which were applied before the intumescent coatings during the two hours for the performance of intumescent coatings by getting a temperature-time curve of steel components. FIN EC software was used to determine the critical temperatures of protected steels, and Abaqus was used for thermal analysis to get theoretical results to compare with the experimental results.

Keywords: fire safety, structural steel, ABAQUS, thermal analysis, FIN EC, intumescent coatings

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Arezoo Sadrinezhad, Kallol Sett, S. I. Hariharan

Abstract:

In this paper, a probabilistic framework based on Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) approach has been applied to simulate triaxial cyclic constitutive behavior of uncertain soils. The framework builds upon previous work of the writers, and it has been extended for cyclic probabilistic simulation of triaxial undrained behavior of soils. von Mises elastic-perfectly plastic material model is considered. It is shown that by using probabilistic framework, some of the most important aspects of soil behavior under cyclic loading can be captured even with a simple elastic-perfectly plastic constitutive model.

Keywords: elasto-plasticity, uncertainty, soils, fokker-planck equation, fourier spectral method, finite difference method

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Peng Cheng, Liqing Wei, Hongyu Chen, Ruomiao Wang

Abstract:

This paper discusses a light-weight reinforced thermoplastic (LWRT) composite with superior fire retardancy. This porous LWRT composite is manufactured using polyolefin, fiberglass, and fire retardant additives via a wet-lay process. However, discoloration of the LWRT can be induced by various mechanisms, which may be a concern in the building and construction industry. It is commonly understood that discoloration is strongly associated with the presence of phenolic antioxidant(s) and NO_x. The over-oxidation of phenolic antioxidant(s) is probably the root-cause of the discoloration (pinking/yellowing). Hanwha Azdel, Inc. developed a LWRT with fire-retardant property of ASTM E84-Class A specification, as well as negligible discoloration even under harsh conditions. In addition, this thermoplastic material is suitable for secondary processing (e.g. compression molding) if necessary.

Keywords: discoloration, fire-retardant, thermoplastic composites, wet-lay process

Procedia PDF Downloads 125