Search results for: climate change effects

Authors: Mamadou Diop, Florence Crick, Momadou Sow, Kate Elizabeth Gannon

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Understanding SME leaders’ responses to climate is essential to cope with ongoing changes in temperature and rainfall. This study analyzes the response of SME leaders to the adverse effects of climate change in semi-arid lands (SAL) in Senegal. Based on surveys administrated to 161 SME leaders, this research shows that 91% of economic units are affected by climatic conditions, although 70% do not have a plan to deal with climate risks. Economic actors have striven to take measures to adapt. However, their efforts are limited by various obstacles accentuated by a lack of support from public authorities. In doing so, substantial political, institutional and financial efforts at national and local levels are needed to promote an enabling environment for economic actors to adapt. This will focus on information and training about the threats and opportunities related to global warming, the creation of an adaptation support fund to support local initiatives and the improvement of the institutional, regulatory and political framework.

Keywords: small and medium-sized enterprises, climate change, adaptation, semi-arid lands

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Authors: Pier Andrea Marras, Daniela Lima, Pedro Matos Soares, Rita Maria Cardoso, Daniela Medas, Elisabetta Dore, Giovanni De Giudici

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Climate change effects on the hydrologic cycle are the main concern for the evaluation of water management strategies. Climate models project scenarios of precipitation changes in the future, considering greenhouse emissions. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) climate models were first evaluated in a Mediterranean island (Sardinia) against observed precipitation for a historical reference period (1976-2005). A weighted multi-model ensemble (ENS) was built, weighting the single models based on their ability to reproduce observed rainfall. Future projections (2071-2100) were carried out using the 8.5 RCP emissions scenario to evaluate changes in precipitations. ENS was then used as climate forcing for the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), with the aim to assess the consequences of such projected changes on streamflow and runoff of two small catchments located in the South-West Sardinia. Results showed that a decrease of mean rainfall values, up to -25 % at yearly scale, is expected for the future, along with an increase of extreme precipitation events. Particularly in the eastern and southern areas, extreme events are projected to increase by 30%. Such changes reflect on the hydrologic cycle with a decrease of mean streamflow and runoff, except in spring, when runoff is projected to increase by 20-30%. These results stress that the Mediterranean is a hotspot for climate change, and the use of model tools can provide very useful information to adopt water and land management strategies to deal with such changes.

Keywords: EURO-CORDEX, climate change, hydrology, SWAT model, Sardinia, multi-model ensemble

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Authors: David Ssekamate

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The study which is work in progress examines the opportunities and challenges for universities in Africa in addressing climate change issues in their programmes. Specifically, the study attempts to examine the current academic, research and community engagement programmes on climate change implemented by the Universities; the key challenges faced by the implementing units in carrying out these programmes and; the success factors that would support universities to adequately address climate change issues in their programmes. The researcher adopted a qualitative comparative case study design with Makerere University (Uganda) and University of Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) as comparative cases. Data will be collected using semi-structured in-depth interviews, Focus Group Discussions (FDGs) and Document review. A total of 12 semi-structured in-depth interviews and 4 Focus Group Discussions will be undertaken, collecting data from 36 respondents in both Uganda and Tanzania. The data will be analyzed using content and thematic analysis methods with the help of Nvivo software. The findings are envisaged to make a significant contribution to scholarly literature on climate change education and the role of higher education in addressing climate change issues, inform policy making in the sector and development planning to strengthen the academic, research and community engagement programmes on climate change by universities in Africa. The implications of the findings may go beyond the focus on climate change but also other related sustainable development issues incorporated in academic and research programmes of universities in Africa. The results may enable universities to re-think their approaches and practices and also deal with challenges effectively in addressing climate change related issues in their programmes.

Keywords: climate change, climate change education, African universities, challenges

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Authors: Rajendra Kumar Isaac, Monisha Isaac

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Climate variability and changes are the emerging challenges for Indian agriculture with the growing population to ensure national food security. A study was conducted to assess the Climatic Change effects in medium to low altitude areas of the Himalayan region causing changes in land use and cereal crop productivity with the various climatic parameters. The rainfall and temperature changes from 1951 to 2013 were studied at four locations of varying altitudes, namely Hardwar, Rudra Prayag, Uttar Kashi and Tehri Garwal. It was observed that there is noticeable increment in temperature on all the four locations. It was surprisingly observed that the mean rainfall intensity of 30 minutes duration has increased at the rate of 0.1 mm/hours since 2000. The study shows that the combined effect of increasing temperature, rainfall, runoff and urbanization at the mid-Himalayan region is causing an increase in various climatic disasters and changes in agriculture patterns. A noticeable change in cropping patterns, crop productivity and land use change was observed. Appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are necessary to ensure that sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture. Appropriate information is necessary for farmers, as well as planners and decision makers for developing, disseminating and adopting climate-smart technologies.

Keywords: climate variability, agriculture, land use, mitigation strategies

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Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram

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This study examines adaptation measures and factors that influence adaptation decisions in Bequia by using multiple linear regression and a structural equation model. Using survey data, the results suggest that households are knowledgeable and concerned about climate change but lack knowledge about the measures needed to adapt. The findings from the SEM suggest that a positive relationship exist between vulnerability and adaptation, vulnerability and perception, along with a negative relationship between perception and adaptation. This suggests that being aware of the terms associated with climate change and knowledge about climate change is insufficient for implementing adaptation measures; instead the risk and importance placed on climate change, vulnerability experienced with household flooding, drainage and expected threat of future sea level are the main factors that influence the adaptation decision. The results obtained in this study are beneficial to all as adaptation requires a collective effort by stakeholders.

Keywords: adaptation, Bequia, multiple linear regression, structural equation model

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Authors: Abdullah M. Alzahrani, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

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There is an international consensus on the climate change in the entire world and this is as a result of the combination of the natural factors, such as volcanoes and hurricanes with increased of human activity on the earth, such as industrial renaissance. Where this solidarity increases emissions of greenhouse gases GHGs that considered as the main driver of climate change scenarios and related emerging risks and impacts on buildings. These climatic risks including damages, disruption and disquiet are set to increase and it is considered as the main challenges and difficulties facing built environment due to major implications on assets sector. Consequently, the threat from climate change patterns has a significant impact on a variety of complex human decisions, which affect all aspects of living. Understanding the relationship between buildings and such risks arising from climate change scenarios on buildings are the key in insuring the optimal timing and design of policies and systems, which affect all aspects of the built environment. This paper will uncovering this correlation between emerging climate change risks and the building assets. In addition, how these emerging risks can be classified in practical way in terms of their impact type on buildings. Hence, this mapping will assist professionals and interested parties in the building sector to cope with such risks in several systematic ways including development and designing of mitigation and adaptation strategies and processes of design, specification, construction, and operation; all these leads to successful management of assets.

Keywords: climate change, climate change risks, built environment, building sector, impacts

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Authors: Carmela Mariano

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The literature, the scientific and disciplinary debate related to the impacts of climate change on the territory has highlighted, in recent years, the need for climate-proof and resilient tools of urban planning that adopt an integrated and inter-scalar approach for the construction of urban regeneration strategies by the objectives of the European Strategy on adaptation to climate change, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Climate Conference. This article addresses the operational implications of urban climate resilience in urban planning tools as a priority objective of policymakers (government bodies, institutions, etc.) to respond to the risks of climate change-related impacts on the environment. Within the general framework of the research activities carried out by the author, this article provides a critical synthesis of the analysis and evaluation of some case studies from the Italian national context, which enabled, through an inductive method, the assessment of the process of implementing the adaptation to climate change within the regional urban planning frameworks (regional urban laws), specific regional adaptation strategies or local adaptation plans and within the territorial and urban planning tools of a metropolitan or local scale. This study aims to identify theoretical–methodological, and operational references for the innovation and integration of planning tools concerning climate change that allow local planners to test these references in specific territorial contexts to practical adaptation strategies for local action.

Keywords: urban resilience, urban regeneration, climate-proof-planning, urban planning

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Authors: Simiso Fisokuhle Nyandeni

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Climate change has turned out to be a pandemic that has drawn the attention of many countries’ households around the globe, especially those whose livelihood and economic status depend on agricultural productivity. Hence, the agricultural sector is regarded as the sector that is most dependent on climate conditions for its productivity/harvest, yet in recent years this sector has been experiencing drought. However, adaptation seems to be a tool that every farmer looks upon as a solution to their challenges as their productivity keeps on being vulnerable to climate effects. Thus, exposure/access to the market seems to be a major challenge that faces especially small-scale farmers. We, therefore, examine the small-scale farmers’ constraints or challenges towards getting access to the market for them to get proper sales of their farming products. As a result, the adaptation capacity of every farm household varies on the financial status.

Keywords: climate change, small-scale farming, agriculture sector, adaptation

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Authors: Simiso Fisokuhle Nyandeni

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The environment is one of the major components of intergenerational equity under sustainability; however, this component has been facing a lot of issues/crises, which include those that are caused by natural systems due to the actions of humans. Although some of those environmental issues may occur from natural causes, however, climate change effects have shown to increase rapidly due to human behavior, which led to the increase in greenhouse emissions and the over-exploitation of natural resources that maintain an ecological balance in our environment. Based on the recent projections, the growing population tends to outstrip the environmental resources, and as a result, the rapid depletion of natural resources that maintain ecological balance within the environment has resulted in such environmental issues. This paper has adopted desktop analysis to address the main objective, which seeks to address the effects of population dynamics on environmental issues and what needs to be done to maintain the ecological balance between the growing population and the limited resources that are available; thus, the collective data sources were used to justify the literature in order to get adequate results to influence the potential findings. The major findings postulate that there is an ecological imbalance between limited resources available and the growing population; as a result, the environment is taking action against humanity through climate change impacts. Hence findings further outline that in order to prevent such impacts, there should be drastic interventions by the governments (all stakeholders should be involved in decision-making; Governmental or non-governmental institutions, scientists, researchers, etc.) around the world to maintain this ecological balance and also to prioritize the adaptation measures. Therefore, this paper seeks to examine the implications of population dynamics on the environmental issues and what needs to be done in order to maintain this ecological balance between the growing population and environmental resources; hence, this review will be based on the climate change context.

Keywords: population dynamics, climate change, environment, sustainability

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Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

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Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

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Authors: Kenneth Nhundu, Leocadia Zhou, Farhad Aghdasi, Voster Muchenje

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Climate change poses increased risks to rural communities that rely on natural resources, such as forests, cropland and rangeland, waterways, and open spaces Because of their connection to the land and the potential for climate change to impact natural resources and disrupt ecosystems and seasons, rural livelihoods and well-being are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change. Climate change has the potential to affect the environment in a number of ways that place increased stress on everyone, but disproportionately on the most vulnerable populations, including the young, the old, those with chronic illness, and the poor. The communities in the study area are predominantly rural, resource-based and are generally surrounded by public or private lands that are dominated by natural resources, including forests, rangelands, and agriculture. The livelihoods of these communities are tied to natural resources. Therefore, targeted strategies to cope will be required. This paper assessed the household socio-economic characteristics and their implications to household vulnerability to climate change impacts in the rural Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The results indicate that the rural communities are climate-vulnerable populations as they have a large proportion of people who are less economically or physically capable of adapting to climate change. The study therefore recommends that at each level, the needs, knowledge, and voices of vulnerable populations, including indigenous peoples and resource-based communities, deserve consideration and incorporation so that climate change policy (1) ensures that all people are supported and able to act, (2) provides as robust a strategy as possible to address a rapidly changing environment, and (3) enhances equity and justice.

Keywords: climate change, vulnerable, socio-economic, livelihoods

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Authors: Mario Calabrese, Francesca Iandolo, Pietro Vito, Raffaele D'Amore, Francesco Caputo

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This article presents a synopsis of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), a fresh and emerging concept in mitigating and adapting to climate change. It outlines a classification of NBS, from the least intrusive to the most advanced engineering, and provides illustrations of each. Moreover, it gives an overview of the 'Life Metro Adapt' initiative, which dealt with the climatic challenges faced by the Milan Metropolitan City and encouraged the development of climate change adaptation methods using alternative, nature-focused solutions. Lastly, the article emphasizes the necessity of raising awareness about environmental issues to ensure that NBS becomes a regular practice today and can be refined in the future.

Keywords: nature-based solutions, urban resilience, climate change adaptation, life metro adapt initiative

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Authors: Ali M. Subyani

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The increase in the greenhouse gas emission has had a severe impact on global climate change and is bound to affect the weather patterns worldwide. This climate change impacts are among the future significant effects on any society. Rainfall levels are drastically increasing with flash floods in some places and long periods of droughts in others, especially in arid regions. These extreme events are causes of interactions concerning environmental, socio-economic and cultural life and their implementation. This paper presents the detailed features of dry and wet spell durations and rainfall intensity series available (1971-2012) on daily basis for the Jeddah area, Western, Saudi Arabia. It also presents significant articles for combating the climate change impacts on this area. Results show trend changes in dry and wet spell durations and rainfall amount on daily, monthly and annual time series. Three rain seasons were proposed in this investigation: high rain, low rain, and dry seasons. It shows that the overall average dry spell durations is about 80 continuous days while the average wet spell durations is 1.39 days with an average rainfall intensity of 8.2 mm/day. Annual and seasonal autorun analyses confirm that the rainy seasons are tending to have more intense rainfall while the seasons are becoming drier. This study would help decision makers in future for water resources management and flood risk analysis.

Keywords: climate change, daily rainfall, dry and wet spill, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Zh. Bolatova, Zh. Bulkhairova, M. Kulshigashova

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In this article, the authors consider the main aspects of climate change's impact on the economic efficiency of leguminous crop production and perspectives in Kazakhstan. It is worth noting that climate change has an impact on the instability of leguminous crops and leads to a decrease in production efficiency. Ultimately, all of the above determines the relevance and significance of this topic. The level of productivity of grain and legumes in the country and by regions of Kazakhstan was also analyzed. The authors conducted a survey and a deeper analysis of agricultural producers in the Kazakhstan region. In the end, the authors considered the prospects for the development of leguminous crops in Kazakhstan. For the article have been used different literature and reports from IPCC, WMO, WTO, FAO, UNEP, UNFCCC, UNDP, IMF, WB, OECD, KAZHYDROMET, Committee of the Statistics of Kazakhstan, etc.

Keywords: climate change, economic efficiency, leguminous crops, production, yield

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Authors: H. Fraga, J. A. Santos

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Vitiviniculture in Portugal is a key socio-economic sector, with a strong connection to local traditions and culture. Despite being a relatively small country, with prevailing Mediterranean environments, Portugal comprises an exceptionally large diversity of growth conditions (Terroirs). The vineyard area in Portugal is over 190 thousand hectares, being the eleventh wine producer and ninth wine exporter worldwide. Owing to the strong impact of weather and climate conditions on grapevine physiological development, grape berry quantity and quality show important inter-annual variability. Grapevines are also susceptible to climate change, as their responses will be unavoidably different under future climates. These impacts may change wine typicity of a given region or even its viticultural suitability. The current study reveals that the projected warming and drying trends for Portugal under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are projected to 1) significantly shift current grapevine growing thermal conditions (e.g., heat and chill accumulation), 2) enhance water stress, 3) anticipate phenological timings and 4) modify yields. Moreover, the present study provides some hints regarding the effectiveness of mulching and irrigation as climate change adaptation measures. Our results show that the effectiveness of these adaptation measures will strongly rest on the strength of the climate change signal at a local scale, thus emphasizing the need for local-to-regional climate change assessments.

Keywords: viticulture, climate change, adaptation measures, Portugal

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Authors: T. Davitashvili

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At present impact of global climate change on the territory of Georgia is evident at least on the background of the Caucasus glaciers melting which during the last century have decreased to half their size. Glaciers are early indicators of ongoing global and regional climate change. Knowledge of the Caucasus glaciers fluctuation (melting) is an extremely necessary tool for planning hydro-electric stations and water reservoir, for development tourism and agriculture, for provision of population with drinking water and for prediction of water supplies in more arid regions of Georgia. Otherwise, the activity of anthropogenic factors has resulted in decreasing of the mowing, arable, unused lands, water resources, shrubs and forests, owing to increasing the production and building. Transformation of one type structural unit into another one has resulted in local climate change and its directly or indirectly impacts on different components of water resources on the territory of Georgia. In the present paper, some hydrological specifications of Georgian water resources and its potential pollutants on the background of regional climate change are presented. Some results of Georgian’s glaciers pollution and its melting process are given. The possibility of surface and subsurface water pollution owing to accidents at oil pipelines or railway routes are discussed. The specific properties of regional climate warming process in the eastern Georgia are studied by statistical methods. The effect of the eastern Georgian climate change upon water resources is investigated.

Keywords: climate, droughts, pollution, water resources

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Authors: Mathieu Hemono, Sophie Puig-Malet, Patrick Zylberman, Avner Bar-Hen, Rainer Sauerborn, Stefanie Schütte, Niamh Herlihi, Antoine Flahault et Anneliese Depoux

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Since the IPCC released its first report in 1990, an increasing number of peer-reviewed publications have reported the health risks associated with climate change. Although there is a large body of evidence supporting the association between climate change and poor health outcomes, the media is inconsistent in the attention it pays to the subject matter. This study aims to analyze the modalities and rhetoric in the media concerning the impact of climate change on health in order to better understand its role in information dissemination. A review was conducted of articles published between 1990 and 2015 in the francophone newspapers Le Monde and Jeune Afrique. A detailed search strategy including specific climate and health terminology was used to search the newspapers’ online databases. 1202 articles were identified as having referenced the terms climate change and health. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to narrow the search to articles referencing the effects of climate change on human health and 160 articles were included in the final analysis. Data was extracted and categorized to create a structured database allowing for further investigation and analysis. The review indicated that although 66% of the selected newspaper articles reference scientific evidence of the impact of climate change on human health, the focus on the topic is limited major political events or is circumstances relating to public health crises. Main findings also include that among the many direct and indirect health outcomes, infectious diseases are the main health outcome highlighted in association with climate change. Lastly, the articles suggest that while developed countries have caused most of the greenhouse effect, the global south is more immediately affected. Overall, the reviewed articles reinforce the need for international cooperation in finding a solution to mitigate the effects of climate change on health. The manner in which scientific results are communicated and disseminated, impact individual and collective perceptions of the topic in the public sphere and affect political will to shape policy. The results of this analysis will underline the modalities of the rhetoric of transparency and provide the basis for a perception study of media discourses. This study is part of an interdisciplinary project called 4CHealth that confronts results of the research done on scientific, political and press literature to better understand how the knowledge on climate changes and health circulates within those different fields and whether and how it is translated to real world change.

Keywords: climate change, health, health impacts, communication, media, rhetoric, awareness, Global South, Africa

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Authors: Nita Mitra, Pranab Chanda

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In this paper, the issue of attitude-behavior consistency has been addressed in the context of climate change. Scientists (about 98 percent) opine that human behavior has a significant role in climate change. Such climate changes are harmful for human life. Thus, it is natural to conclude that only change of human behavior can avoid harmful consequences. Government and Non-Government Organizations are taking steps to bring in the desired changes in behavior. However, it seems that although the efforts are achieving changes in the attitudes to some degree, those steps are failing to materialize the corresponding behavioral changes. This has been a great concern for environmentalists. Psychologists have noticed the problem as a particular case of the general psychological problem of making attitude and behavior consistent with each other. The present study is in continuation of a previous work of the same author based upon descriptive research on the status of attitude and behavior of the people of a foot-hill region of the Himalayas in India regarding climate change. The observations confirm the mismatch of attitude and behavior of the people of the region with respect to climate change. While doing so an attitude-behavior mismatch has been noticed with respect to the acceptance of psychological findings by the public. People have been found to be interested in Psychology as an important subject, but they are reluctant to take the observations of psychologists seriously. A comparative study in this regard has been made with similar studies done elsewhere. Finally, an attempt has been made to perceive observations in the framework of observational learning due to Bandura's and behavior change due to Lewin.

Keywords: acceptance of psychological variables, attitude-behavior consistency, behavior change, climate change, observational learning

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Authors: Sejin Jung, Dongho Kang, Byungsik Kim

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Assessing the impact of climate change requires the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to quantify uncertainties between scenarios and produce downscaled outlines for simulation of climate under the influence of different factors, including topography. This study decreases climate change scenarios from the 13 global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impacts of future climate change. Unlike South Korea, North Korea lacks in studies using climate change scenarios of the CoupledModelIntercomparisonProject (CMIP5), and only recently did the country start the projection of extreme precipitation episodes. One of the main purposes of this study is to predict changes in the average climatic conditions of North Korea in the future. The result of comparing downscaled climate change scenarios with observation data for a reference period indicates high applicability of the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME). Furthermore, the study classifies climatic zones by applying the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system to the MME, which is validated for future precipitation and temperature. The result suggests that the continental climate (D) that covers the inland area for the reference climate is expected to shift into the temperate climate (C). The coefficient of variation (CVs) in the temperature ensemble is particularly low for the southern coast of the Korean peninsula, and accordingly, a high possibility of the shifting climatic zone of the coast is predicted. This research was supported by a grant (MOIS-DP-2015-05) of Disaster Prediction and Mitigation Technology Development Program funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS, Korea).

Keywords: MME, North Korea, Koppen–Geiger, climatic zones, coefficient of variation, CV

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Authors: Xiaoyan Wang, Zhongde Wang

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The issue of climate change, which originated in the middle of the twentieth century, has become a focus of international political, academic, and non-governmental organizations and public attention. In order to address the problems caused by climate change, the Chinese government has proposed a dual-carbon target and taken some national measures, such as ecological priority and green low-carbon development. These goals and measures are highly aligned with the values of the landscape architecture industry. This is an opportunity for the architectural discipline and the landscape architecture industry, so it is very necessary to summarize and analyze the hotspots related to climate change in the field of building science in China, which can assist the landscape architecture industry and related organizations in formulating more rational professional goals and taking actions that contribute to the betterment of societal, environmental development. Through the study, it is found as follows: firstly, after 20 years of rapid development, the research on climate change in the major architectural disciplines has shown a trend of diversification of research perspectives, interdisciplinary cross-cutting, and broadening of content; secondly, the research contents of landscape architecture focuses on the strategies to adapt to climate change, such as selection of urban tree species, the urban green infrastructure space layout, and the resilient city. Finally, in the future, climate change-based landscape architecture research will make the content system more diversified, but at the same time, it is still necessary to further deepen the research on quantitative methodology and construct scale systematic planning and design methods.

Keywords: climate change, landscape architecture, knowledge mapping, cites-pace

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Authors: Tesfay Gidey Bezabeh, Tânia Sofia Oliveira, Josep Crous-Duran, João H. N. Palma

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Ethiopia's economy depends strongly on Coffea arabica production. Coffee, like many other crops, is sensitive to climate change. An urgent development and application of strategies against the negative impacts of climate change on coffee production is important. Agroforestry-based system is one of the strategies that may ensure sustainable coffee production amidst the likelihood of future impacts of climate change. This system involves the combination of trees in buffer extremes, thereby modifying microclimate conditions. This paper assessed coffee production under 1) coffee monoculture and 2) coffee grown using an agroforestry system, under a) current climate and b) two different future climate change scenarios. The study focused on two representative coffee-growing regions of Ethiopia under different soil, climate, and elevation conditions. A process-based growth model (Yield-SAFE) was used to simulate coffee production for a time horizon of 40 years. Climate change scenarios considered were representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The results revealed that in monoculture systems, the current coffee yields are between 1200-1250 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with an expected decrease between 4-38% and 20-60% in scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. However, in agroforestry systems, the current yields are between 1600-2200 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹; the decrease was lower, ranging between 4-13% and 16-25% in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. From the results, it can be concluded that coffee production under agroforestry systems has a higher level of resilience when facing future climate change and reinforces the idea of using this type of management in the near future for adapting climate change's negative impacts on coffee production.

Keywords: Albizia gummifera, CORDEX, Ethiopia, HADCM3 model, process-based model

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Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Niels E. Joergensen, Ataur Rahman, Hassan Qasem

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Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth Assessment Report AR4 predicts a more extreme climate towards the end of the century, which is likely to impact the design of engineering infrastructure projects with a long design life. A recent study in 2013 developed new design rainfall for Qatar, which provides an improved design basis of drainage infrastructure for the State of Qatar under the current climate. The current design standards in Qatar do not consider increased rainfall intensity caused by climate change. The focus of this paper is to update recently developed design rainfalls in Qatar under the changing climatic conditions based on IPCC's AR4 allowing a later revision to the proposed design standards, relevant for projects with a longer design life. The future climate has been investigated based on the climate models released by IPCC’s AR4 and A2 story line of emission scenarios (SRES) using a stationary approach. Annual maximum series (AMS) of predicted 24 hours rainfall data for both wet (NCAR-CCSM) scenario and dry (CSIRO-MK3.5) scenario for the Qatari grid points in the climate models have been extracted for three periods, current climate 2010-2039, medium term climate (2040-2069) and end of century climate (2070-2099). A homogeneous region of the Qatari grid points has been formed and L-Moments based regional frequency approach is adopted to derive design rainfalls. The results indicate no significant changes in the design rainfall on the short term 2040-2069, but significant changes are expected towards the end of the century (2070-2099). New design rainfalls have been developed taking into account climate change for 2070-2099 scenario and by averaging results from the two scenarios. IPCC’s AR4 predicts that the rainfall intensity for a 5-year return period rain with duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 11% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Similarly, the rainfall intensity for more extreme rainfall, with a return period of 100 years and duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 71% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Infrastructure with a design life exceeding 60 years should add safety factors taking the predicted effects from climate change into due consideration.

Keywords: climate change, design rainfalls, IDF, Qatar

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Authors: Abdelghani Qadem, Zouhair Qadem

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Like the countries of the Mediterranean region, Morocco is likely to be at high risk of water scarcity due to climate change. Morocco, which is the subject of this study, is located between two climatic zones, temperate in the North tropical in the South, Morocco is distinguished by four types of climate: humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid. The last decades attest to the progression of the semi-arid climate towards the North of the country. The IPCC projections, which have been made in this direction, show that there is an overall downward trend in rainfall contributions varying on average between 10% and 30% depending on the scenario selected and the region considered, they also show an upward trend in average annual temperatures. These trends will have a real impact on water resources, which will result in a drop in the volume of water resources varying between 7.6% and 40.6%. The present study aims to describe the meteorological conditions of Morocco in order to answer the problem dealing with the effect of climatic fluctuations on water resources and to assess water vulnerability in the face of climate change.

Keywords: morocco, climate change, water resources, impact, water scarcity

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Authors: Nishi Bhuvandas, P. V. Timbadiya, P. L. Patel, P. D. Porey

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Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. According to the sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Paper on Climate Change and water, changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although many previous research carried on effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.

Keywords: climate change, downscaling, GCM, RCM

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Authors: Indrapriya Kularatne, Olufemi Omisakin

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Climate change mitigation is one of the most complex challenges that humanity has ever faced in the context of global environmental protection. This a multifaceted challenge that needs immediate, targeted and concentrated actions at global, national and local levels. Individual actions play a crucial role in mitigating climate change. New Zealand attracts a significant number of international students annually for higher education. Therefore, it is critical to understand what international students are bringing into the country in terms of their practices for mitigating climate change challenges. This exploratory research aims to investigate international students' perceptions on mitigating climate change issues. The study focuses particularly on the areas of energy conservation and effective transportation. A specific questionnaire was developed covering the areas of energy conserving practices, use of energy efficient products, use of environmentally friendly transportation methods and practices to reduce vehicle usage. The quantitative data was collected from nearly 240 participants using the Qualtrics online system. The research findings provide valuable insights into international students' perceptions of sustainability and environmental protection actions, particularly in the areas of energy conservation and effective transportation. These insights can contribute to ongoing efforts to mitigate climate change issues and promote sustainable development practices in New Zealand.

Keywords: climate change, energy conservation, effective transportation, perceptions

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Authors: A. F. Alves, L. Schmidt, J. Ferrao

Abstract:

Portugal is one of the more vulnerable European countries to the impacts of climate change. These include: temperature increase; coastal sea level rise; desertification and drought in the countryside; and frequent and intense extreme weather events. Hence, adaptation strategies to climate change are of great importance. This is what was addressed by ClimAdaPT.Local. This policy-oriented project had the main goal of developing 26 Municipal Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change, through the identification of local specific present and future vulnerabilities, the training of municipal officials, and the engagement of local communities. It is intended to be replicated throughout the whole territory and to stimulate the creation of a national network of local adaptation in Portugal. Supported by methodologies and tools specifically developed for this project, our paper is based on the surveys, training and stakeholder engagement workshops implemented at municipal level. In an 'adaptation-as-learning' process, these tools functioned as a social-learning platform and an exercise in knowledge and policy co-production. The results allowed us to explore the nature of local vulnerabilities and the exposure of gaps in the context of reappraisal of both future climate change adaptation opportunities and possible dysfunctionalities in the governance arrangements of municipal Portugal. Development issues are highlighted when we address the sectors and social groups that are both more sensitive and more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. We argue that a pluralistic dialogue and a common framing can be established between them, with great potential for transformational adaptation. Observed climate change, present-day climate variability and future expectations of change are great societal challenges which should be understood in the context of the sustainable development agenda.

Keywords: adaptation, ClimAdaPT.Local, climate change, Portugal, sustainable development

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Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

Abstract:

Changes in precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to alter agricultural productivity patterns worldwide. The interactive effects of soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that determine crop yield and are sensitive to climatic changes. The study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and corresponding water productivity and nutrient use efficiency under climate change scenarios for the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia by mid (2041-2070) and end century (2071-2100). Projected impacts were evaluated using climate scenarios generated from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by the Swedish RCA4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5). Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate yield, water and nutrient use for the study periods. Results indicate that rainfed maize yield might decrease on average by 16.5 and 23% by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively, due to climate change. Water productivity is expected to decline on average by 2.2 and 12% in the CRV by mid and end centuries with respect to the baseline. Nutrient uptake and corresponding nutrient use efficiency (NUE) might also be negatively affected by climate change. Phosphorus uptake probably will decrease in the CRV on average by 14.5 to 18% by 2050s, while N uptake may not change significantly at Melkassa. Nitrogen and P use efficiency indicators showed decreases in the range between 8.5 to 10.5% and between 9.3 to 10.5%, respectively, by 2050s relative to the baseline average. The simulation results further indicated that a combination of increased water availability and optimum nutrient application might increase both water productivity and nutrient use efficiency in the changed climate, which can ensure modest production in the future. Potential options that can improve water availability and nutrient uptake should be identified for the study locations using a crop modeling approach.

Keywords: crop model, climate change scenario, nutrient uptake, nutrient use efficiency, water productivity

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Authors: Athul T.

Abstract:

Kerala cities in India are grappling with an alarming rise in temperatures fueled by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This phenomenon, exacerbated by rapid urbanization and climate change, poses a significant threat to public health and environmental well-being. In response to this growing concern, this study investigates the potential of urban vegetation as a powerful mitigation strategy against UHI. The study delves into the intricate relationship between micro-climate changes, UHI intensity, and the strategic placement of greenery in alleviating these effects. Utilizing advanced simulation software, the most effective vegetation types and configurations for maximizing UHI reduction will be identified. By analyzing the current state of Kozhikode's urban vegetation and its influence on microclimates, this study aims to tailor actionable strategies for Kerala cities, potentially paving the way for a more sustainable and thermally comfortable urban future.

Keywords: urban heat island, climate change, micro climate, urban vegetation

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Authors: Ester B. Onag, Manuel Morga, Belen Tangco

Abstract:

Evidence-based research attested that Climate Change is a global phenomenon that has a massive impact on the economy, the government and the people. To minimize its impact, the national government must undertake social orders to ensure the needs of the people by implementing developmental policies that provide adequate social service to improve the quality of life for all. This research attempts to evaluate the political accountability of the Sangguniang Barangay of Malabon on its readiness for climate change. Which, the theory of decentralization takes an active participation, where the the national policies for climate change are adopted by local ordinances and it is enforced, monitored, and reported through the Barangay ordinance enacted by the Sangguniang Barangay. This paper also analyzes certain factors anchored on the political accountability of the Sangguniang Barangay which determines the state of their readiness in climate change, such as the gravity of their accountability which extends beyond the lines of their responsibility as stated in the local government code. It also evaluated the degree of their capabilities in actual legislation, the nature of their prioritization through their enacted ordinances and the extent of participation from different stakeholders of barangay such as the sectoral representatives and the citizens in which their participation is a means that leads to community awareness.

Keywords: climate change, local government, Sangguniang Barangay, government

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Authors: Enze Zhang

Abstract:

Large numbers of inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) projects are constructed or proposed all around the world as solutions to water distribution and supply problems. Nowadays, as climate change warms the atmosphere, alters the hydrologic cycle, and perturbs water availability, large scale IBWTs which are sensitive to these water-related changes may carry significant risk. Given this reality, IBWTs have elicited great controversy and assessments of vulnerability to climate change are urgently needed worldwide. In this paper, we consider the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) in China as a case study, and introduce a bottom-up vulnerability assessment framework. Key hazards and risks related to climate change that threaten future water availability for the SNWTP are firstly identified. Then a performance indicator is presented to quantify the vulnerability of IBWT by taking three main elements (i.e., sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure degree) into account. A probabilistic Budyko model is adapted to estimate water availability responses to a wide range of possibilities for future climate conditions in each region of the study area. After bottom-up quantifying the vulnerability based on the estimated water availability, our findings confirm that SNWTP would greatly alleviate geographical imbalances in water availability under some moderate climate change scenarios but raises questions about whether it is a long-term solution because the donor basin has a high level of vulnerability due to extreme climate change.

Keywords: vulnerability, climate change, inter-basin water transfer, bottom-up

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