Search results for: path dependence
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1973

Search results for: path dependence

533 Towards a Biologically Relevant Tumor-on-a-Chip: Multiplex Microfluidic Platform to Study Breast Cancer Drug Response

Authors: Soroosh Torabi, Brad Berron, Ren Xu, Christine Trinkle

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Microfluidics integrated with 3D cell culture is a powerful technology to mimic cellular environment, and can be used to study cell activities such as proliferation, migration and response to drugs. This technology has gained more attention in cancer studies over the past years, and many organ-on-a-chip systems have been developed to study cancer cell behaviors in an ex-vivo tumor microenvironment. However, there are still some barriers to adoption which include low throughput, complexity in 3D cell culture integration and limitations on non-optical analysis of cells. In this study, a user-friendly microfluidic multi-well plate was developed to mimic the in vivo tumor microenvironment. The microfluidic platform feeds multiple 3D cell culture sites at the same time which enhances the throughput of the system. The platform uses hydrophobic Cassie-Baxter surfaces created by microchannels to enable convenient loading of hydrogel/cell suspensions into the device, while providing barrier free placement of the hydrogel and cells adjacent to the fluidic path. The microchannels support convective flow and diffusion of nutrients to the cells and a removable lid is used to enable further chemical and physiological analysis on the cells. Different breast cancer cell lines were cultured in the device and then monitored to characterize nutrient delivery to the cells as well as cell invasion and proliferation. In addition, the drug response of breast cancer cell lines cultured in the device was compared to the response in xenograft models to the same drugs to analyze relevance of this platform for use in future drug-response studies.

Keywords: microfluidics, multi-well 3d cell culture, tumor microenvironment, tumor-on-a-chip

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532 Development of Highly Repellent Silica Nanoparticles Treatment for Protection of Bio-Based Insulation Composite Material

Authors: Nadia Sid, Alan Taylor, Marion Bourebrab

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The construction sector is on the critical path to decarbonise the European economy by 2050. In order to achieve this objective it must enable reducing its CO2 emission by 90% and its energy consumption by as much as 50%. For this reason, a new class of low environmental impact construction materials named “eco-material” are becoming increasingly important in the struggle against climate change. A European funded collaborative project ISOBIO coordinated by TWI is aimed at taking a radical approach to the use of bio-based aggregates to create novel construction materials that are usable in high volume in using traditional methods, as well as developing markets such as exterior insulation of existing house stocks. The approach taken for this project is to use finely chopped material protected from bio-degradation through the use of functionalized silica nanoparticles. TWI is exploring the development of novel inorganic-organic hybrid nano-materials, to be applied as a surface treatment onto bio-based aggregates. These nanoparticles are synthesized by sol-gel processing and then functionalised with silanes to impart multifunctionality e.g. hydrophobicity, fire resistance and chemical bonding between the silica nanoparticles and the bio-based aggregates. This talk will illustrate the approach taken by TWI to design the functionalized silica nanoparticles by using a material-by-design approach. The formulation and synthesize process will be presented together with the challenges addressed by those hybrid nano-materials. The results obtained with regards to the water repellence and fire resistance will be displayed together with preliminary public results of the ISOBIO project. (This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 641927).

Keywords: bio-sourced material, composite material, durable insulation panel, water repellent material

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531 Development of an Autonomous Automated Guided Vehicle with Robot Manipulator under Robot Operation System Architecture

Authors: Jinsiang Shaw, Sheng-Xiang Xu

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This paper presents the development of an autonomous automated guided vehicle (AGV) with a robot arm attached on top of it within the framework of robot operation system (ROS). ROS can provide libraries and tools, including hardware abstraction, device drivers, libraries, visualizers, message-passing, package management, etc. For this reason, this AGV can provide automatic navigation and parts transportation and pick-and-place task using robot arm for typical industrial production line use. More specifically, this AGV will be controlled by an on-board host computer running ROS software. Command signals for vehicle and robot arm control and measurement signals from various sensors are transferred to respective microcontrollers. Users can operate the AGV remotely through the TCP / IP protocol and perform SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping). An RGBD camera and LIDAR sensors are installed on the AGV, using these data to perceive the environment. For SLAM, Gmapping is used to construct the environment map by Rao-Blackwellized particle filter; and AMCL method (Adaptive Monte Carlo localization) is employed for mobile robot localization. In addition, current AGV position and orientation can be visualized by ROS toolkit. As for robot navigation and obstacle avoidance, A* for global path planning and dynamic window approach for local planning are implemented. The developed ROS AGV with a robot arm on it has been experimented in the university factory. A 2-D and 3-D map of the factory were successfully constructed by the SLAM method. Base on this map, robot navigation through the factory with and without dynamic obstacles are shown to perform well. Finally, pick-and-place of parts using robot arm and ensuing delivery in the factory by the mobile robot are also accomplished.

Keywords: automated guided vehicle, navigation, robot operation system, Simultaneous Localization and Mapping

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530 Elastic Collisions of Electrons with DNA and Water From 10 eV to 100 KeV: Scar Macro Investigation

Authors: Aouina Nabila Yasmina, Zine El Abidine Chaoui

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Recently, understanding the interactions of electrons with the DNA molecule and its components has attracted considerable interest because DNA is the main site damaged by ionizing radiation. The interactions of radiation with DNA induce a variety of molecular damage such as single-strand breaks, double-strand breaks, basic damage, cross-links between proteins and DNA, and others, or the formation of free radicals, which, by chemical reactions with DNA, can also lead to breakage of the strand. One factor that can contribute significantly to these processes is the effect of water hydration on the formation and reaction of radiation induced by these radicals in and / or around DNA. B-DNA requires about 30% by weight of water to maintain its native conformation in the crystalline state. The transformation depends on various factors such as sequence, ion composition, concentration and water activity. Partial dehydration converts it to DNA-A. The present study shows the results of theoretical calculations for positrons and electrons elastic scattering with DNA medium and water over a broad energy range from 10 eV to 100 keV. Indeed, electron elastic cross sections and elastic mean free paths are calculated using a corrected form of the independent atom method, taking into account the geometry of the biomolecule (SCAR macro). Moreover, the elastic scattering of electrons and positrons by atoms of the biomolecule was evaluated by means of relativistic (Dirac) partial wave analysis. Our calculated results are compared with theoretical data available in the literature in the absence of experimental data, in particular for positron. As a central result, our electron elastic cross sections are in good agreement with existing theoretical data in the range of 10 eV to 1 keV.

Keywords: elastic cross scrion, elastic mean free path, scar macro method, electron collision

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529 Analysing “The Direction of Artificial Intelligence Legislation from a Global Perspective” from the Perspective of “AIGC Copyright Protection” Content

Authors: Xiaochen Mu

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Due to the diversity of stakeholders and the ambiguity of ownership boundaries, the current protection models for Artificial Intelligence Generated Content (AIGC) have many disadvantages. In response to this situation, there are three different protection models worldwide. The United States Copyright Office stipulates that works autonomously generated by artificial intelligence ‘lack’ the element of human creation, and non-human AI cannot create works. To protect and promote investment in the field of artificial intelligence, UK legislation, through Section 9(3) of the CDPA, designates the author of AI-generated works as ‘the person by whom the arrangements necessary for the creation of the work are undertaken.’ China neither simply excludes the work attributes of AI-generated content based on the lack of a natural person subject as the sole reason, nor does it generalize that AIGC should or should not be protected. Instead, it combines specific case circumstances and comprehensively evaluates the degree of originality of AIGC and the contributions of natural persons to AIGC. In China's first AI drawing case, the court determined that the image in question was the result of the plaintiff's design and selection through inputting prompt words and setting parameters, reflecting the plaintiff's intellectual investment and personalized expression, and should be recognized as a work in the sense of copyright law. Despite opposition, the ruling also established the feasibility of the AIGC copyright protection path. The recognition of the work attributes of AIGC will not lead to overprotection that hinders the overall development of the AI industry. Just as with the legislation and regulation of AI by various countries, there is a need for a balance between protection and development. For example, the provisional agreement reached on the EU AI Act, based on a risk classification approach, seeks a dynamic balance between copyright protection and the development of the AI industry.

Keywords: generative artificial intelligence, originality, works, copyright

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528 Analysis of Gender Budgeting in Healthcare Sector: A Case of Gujarat State of India

Authors: Juhi Pandya, Elekes Zsuzsanna

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Health is related to every aspect of human being. Even a quintal change leads to ill-health of an individual. Gender plays an eminent role in determining an individual health exposure. Political implications on health have implicit effects on the individual, societal and economical. The inclusion of gender perspective into policies have plunged enormous attention globally, nationally and locally to detract inequalities and achieve economic growth. Simultaneously, there is an initiation of policies with gender perspective which are named differently but hold similar meaning or objective. They are named gender mainstreaming policies or gender sensitization policies. Gender budgeting acts as a tool for the application of gender mainstreaming policies. It incorporates gender perspective into the budgetary process by restricting the revenues and expenditures at all level of the budget. The current study takes into account the analysis of Gender Budgeting reports in terms of healthcare from the 2014-16 year of Gujarat State, India. The expenditures and literature under the heading of gender budgeting reports named “Health and Family Welfare Department” are discussed in the paper. The data analytics is done with the help of reports published by the Gujarat government on Gender Budgeting. The results discuss upon the expenditure and initiation of new policies as a roadmap for the promotion of gender equality from the path of gender budgeting. It states with the escalation of the budgetary numbers for the health expenditure. Additionally, the paper raises the questions on the hypothetical loopholes pertaining to the gender budgeting in Gujarat. The budget reports do not show a specify explanation to the expenditure use of budget for the schemes mentioned in healthcare. It also does not clarify that how many beneficiaries are benefited through gender budget. The explanation just provides an overlook of theory for healthcare Schemes/Yojana or Abhiyan.

Keywords: gender, gender budgeting, gender equality, healthcare

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527 Effect of thermal aging on Low Cycle Fatigue of Alloy 690

Authors: Kushal Gowda Jayaram, Joseph Huret, Jonathan Quibel, Walter-John Chitty, Gilbert Henaff

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Thermal aging is one of the concerns for the long-term operation of nuclear power plants. Indeed, components in the primary circuit undergo thermal aging while exposed to the chemically active environment of Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) over time. Among the materials used in the reactor components, Alloy 690 can be found in some critical components for nuclear safety. Despite its importance, research on the effect of thermal aging on the microstructural changes and low cycle fatigue (LCF) behavior of Alloy 690 remains limited. This study aims to assess the impact of thermal aging on the fatigue life of Alloy 690. The as-received sample underwent aging at 420°C for 4000 hours, representing the equivalent aging of 60 years in reactor working conditions. First, the characterization of the area and density of intergranular and intragranular precipitates was performed to understand the microstructural changes in the aged specimen. Then, low cycle fatigue tests were conducted on the as received and aged samples at varying strain amplitudes. To investigate the influence of thermal aging on the fatigue behavior of Alloy 690, fracture surfaces were analyzed to estimate fatigue crack growth rates based on striation spacing measurements. Additionally, the axially cut fractured samples have undergone analysis using Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) to understand the effect of aging on strain localization near the crack path. Results indicate that while the characterization of the area and density of intergranular precipitates in the aged specimen (for 2000 hours, approximately 30 years) showed no significant changes, there was a slight increase in the area and density of intragranular precipitates under the same conditions.

Keywords: alloy 690, thermal aging, low cycle fatigue, precipitates

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526 Adaptable Regulatory Oversight and Safety Awareness Regime: An Experience-Based Contribution Towards Sustainability in a Changing Railway Environment

Authors: Peaceman Sopazi, Mabila Mathebula, John Smallwood

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Recent health and safety (H&S) concerns and their resultant impact on railway operations, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) or collectively known as SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic and the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), which have dominated public discourse, brought into question as to whether, or not, some aspects of how we have so far managed safety oversight as railway regulatory bodies and operators will remain relevant in a changing railway environment. Railway practitioners have generally found themselves between a proverbial rock and a hard place by being confronted by emerging challenges which have brought along great opportunities for sustainability. As witnesses and participants to the progressively introduced railway safety management, and transformation regimes, this paper attempts to share gathered field experience on adaptable regulatory oversight and safety awareness. The discourse is approached from a South African context but also with an informed perspective of what seems to work and what usually does not. The authors share their own multi and transdisciplinary experience coupled with insights they have gained as researchers of global trends in general safety management and specific aspects of railway safety management, for sustainability. In addition to sharing a largely experience-based methodology for survival, suggestions are offered for consideration as a way of keeping the railway safety management discourse alive as practitioners navigate a new path which is shrouded in a cloud of untold uncertainty. The authors further believe that the right timing for the implementation of the proposed suggestions in this paper will produce beneficial outcomes. Finally, the paper will identify areas that are still open for further investigation for and by researchers and practitioners alike.

Keywords: health & safety management, safety awareness, railway safety management, railway systems sustainability

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525 Pragmatic Language Characteristics of Individuals with Asperger Syndrome: Systematic Literature Review and Meta-analysis

Authors: Sadeq Alyaari, Muhammad Alkhunayn, Montaha Al Yaari, Ayman Al Yaari, Ayah Al Yaari, Adham Al Yaari, Sajedah Al Yaari, Fatehi Eissa

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Introduction. The purpose of this Systematic Literature Review and Meta-analysis ((SLR & Meta-analysis) was to examine the differences between Asperger syndrome (AS) individuals and typically developing and achieving individuals (TD) regarding language competence and how these differences related to AS individuals’ age and the significance such differences add to our knowledge of understanding their language performance as issues that are still underdiagnosed and ill-treated entities. Methods. The study followed SLR & Meta-analysis protocol and was armed with data of 456 AS subjects and controls (231 and 225, respectively) abstracted from 14 studies that have been collected from different electronic bibliographic databases including web of science, Scopus, EMBASE, Cochrane library, PubMed, PsycInfo and google scholar along with unpublished literature. Results. Outlined results show deterioration in language competence of AS subjects in comparison to TD controls. Such deterioration impairs conversational implicature more than it does conventional maxims of AS individuals’ pragmatic language and has no relationship with their age. Results also show that the difference in intelligence features of the mental reality in the language competence becomes smaller with increasing age and that the difference in representational content features becomes larger. Conclusions. These findings help experts in the field not only predict pragmatic language impairments in AS individuals but also enable AS individuals themselves to decode and/or interpret speech inputs; therefore, perceive the world around them and interact with their community members. Outcomes should be considered to lay out a path for further exploration of genetics, etiology, and response to treatment of all these premises that are currently unsearched in AS individuals.

Keywords: pragmatic language characteristics, language competence, mental faculty, mental reality, features, language performance, pragmatics, conventional maxims

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524 Digital Fashion: An Integrated Approach to Additive Manufacturing in Wearable Fashion

Authors: Lingju Wu, Hao Hua

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This paper presents a digital fashion production methodology and workflow based on fused deposition modeling additive manufacturing technology, as demonstrated through a 3D printed fashion show held at Southeast University in Nanjing, China. Unlike traditional fashion, 3D printed fashion allows for the creation of complex geometric shapes and unique structural designs, facilitating diverse reconfiguration and sustainable production of textile fabrics. The proposed methodology includes two components: morphogenesis and the 3D printing process. The morphogenesis part comprises digital design methods such as mesh deformation, structural reorganization, particle flow stretching, sheet partitioning, and spreading methods. The 3D printing process section includes three types of methods: sculptural objects, multi-material composite fabric, and self-forming composite fabrics. This paper focuses on multi-material composite fabrics and self-forming composite fabrics, both of which involve weaving fabrics with 3D-printed material sandwiches. Multi-material composite fabrics create specially tailored fabric from the original properties of the printing path and multiple materials, while self-forming fabrics apply pre-stress to the flat fabric and then print the sandwich, allowing the fabric's own elasticity to interact with the printed components and shape into a 3D state. The digital design method and workflow enable the integration of abstract sensual aesthetics and rational thinking, showcasing a digital aesthetic that challenges conventional handicraft workshops. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive framework for the production of 3D-printed fashion, from concept to final product.

Keywords: digital fashion, composite fabric, self-forming structure, additive manufacturing, generating design

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523 Yield Level, Variability and Yield Gap of Maize (Zea Mays L.) Under Variable Climate Condition of the Semi-arid Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that affect crop yields and are directly or indirectly affected by climate variability and change. The study examined climate-induced yield level, yield variability and gap of maize during 1981-2010 main growing season in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Pearson correlation test was employed to see the relationship between climate variables and yield. The coefficient of variation (CV) was used to analyze annual yield variability. Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate the growth and yield of maize for the study period. The result indicated that maize grain yield was strongly (P<0.01) and positively correlated with seasonal rainfall (r=0.67 at Melkassa and r = 0.69 at Ziway) in the CRV while day temperature affected grain yield negatively (r= -0.44) at Ziway (P<0.05) during the simulation period. Variations in total seasonal rainfall at Melkassa and Ziway explained 44.9 and 48.5% of the variation in yield, respectively, under optimum nutrition. Following variation in rainfall, high yield variability (CV=23.5%, Melkassa and CV=25.3%, Ziway) was observed for optimum nutrient simulation than the corresponding nutrient limited simulation (CV=16%, Melkassa and 24.1%, Ziway) in the study period. The observed farmers’ yield was 72, 52 and 43% of the researcher-managed, water-limited and potential yield of the crop, respectively, indicating a wide maize yield gap in the region. The study revealed rainfed crop production in the CRV is prone to yield variabilities due to its high dependence on seasonal rainfall and nutrient level. Moreover, the high coefficient of variation in the yield gap for the 30-year period also foretells the need for dependable water supply at both locations. Given the wide yield gap especially during lower rainfall years across the simulation periods, it signifies the requirement for a more dependable application of irrigation water and a potential shift to irrigated agriculture; hence, adopting options that can improve water availability and nutrient use efficiency would be crucial for crop production in the area.

Keywords: climate variability, crop model, water availability, yield gap, yield variability

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522 Optimization of Culture Conditions of Paecilomyces tenuipes, Entomopathogenic Fungi Inoculated into the Silkworm Larva, Bombyx mori

Authors: Sunghee Nam

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Entomopathogenic fungi is a Cordyceps species that is isolated from dead silkworm and cicada. Fungi on cicadas were described in old Chinese medicinal books and from ancient times, vegetable wasps and plant worms were widely known to have active substance and have been studied for pharmacological use. Among many fungi belonging to the genus Cordyceps, Cordyceps sinensis have been demonstrated to yield natural products possessing various biological activities and many bioactive components. Generally, It is commonly used to replenish the kidney and soothe the lung, and for the treatment of fatigue. Due to their commercial and economic importance, the demand for Cordyceps has been rapidly increased. However, a supply of Cordyceps specimen could not meet the increasing demand because of their sole dependence on field collection and habitat destruction. Because it is difficult to obtain many insect hosts in nature and the edibility of host insect needs to be verified in a pharmacological aspect. Recently, this setback was overcome that P. tenuipes was able to be cultivated in a large scale using silkworm as host. Pharmacological effects of P. tenuipes cultured on silkworm such as strengthening immune function, anti-fatigue, anti-tumor activity and controlling liver etc. have been proved. They are widely commercialized. In this study, we attempted to establish a method for stable growth inhibition of P. tenuipes on silkworm hosts and an optimal condition for synnemata formation. To determine optimum culturing conditions, temperature and light conditions were varied. The length and number of synnemata was highest at 25℃ temperature and 100~300 lux illumination. On an average, the synnemata of wild P. tenuipes measures 70 ㎜ in length and 20 in number; those of the cultured strain were relatively shorter and more in number. The number of synnemata may have increased as a result of inoculating the host with highly concentrated conidia, while the length may have decreased due to limited nutrition per individual. It is not able that changes in light illumination cause morphological variations in the synnemata. However, regulation of only light and temperature could not produce stromata like perithecia, asci, and ascospores.

Keywords: optimization of culture conditions of paecilomyces tenuipes, entomopathogenic fungi optimization of culture conditions of paecilomyces tenuipes, entomopathogenic fungi silkworm larva, bombyx mori

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521 The Psychology of Cross-Cultural Communication: A Socio-Linguistics Perspective

Authors: Tangyie Evani, Edmond Biloa, Emmanuel Nforbi, Lem Lilian Atanga, Kom Beatrice

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The dynamics of languages in contact necessitates a close study of how its users negotiate meanings from shared values in the process of cross-cultural communication. A transverse analysis of the situation demonstrates the existence of complex efforts on connecting cultural knowledge to cross-linguistic competencies within a widening range of communicative exchanges. This paper sets to examine the psychology of cross-cultural communication in a multi-linguistic setting like Cameroon where many local and international languages are in close contact. The paper equally analyses the pertinence of existing macro sociological concepts as fundamental knowledge traits in literal and idiomatic cross semantic mapping. From this point, the article presents a path model of connecting sociolinguistics to the increasing adoption of a widening range of communicative genre piloted by the on-going globalisation trends with its high-speed information technology machinery. By applying a cross cultural analysis frame, the paper will be contributing to a better understanding of the fundamental changes in the nature and goals of cross-cultural knowledge in pragmatics of communication and cultural acceptability’s. It emphasises on the point that, in an era of increasing global interchange, a comprehensive inclusive global culture through bridging gaps in cross-cultural communication would have significant potentials to contribute to achieving global social development goals, if inadequacies in language constructs are adjusted to create avenues that intertwine with sociocultural beliefs, ensuring that meaningful and context bound sociolinguistic values are observed within the global arena of communication.

Keywords: cross-cultural communication, customary language, literalisms, primary meaning, subclasses, transubstantiation

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520 Before Decision: Career Motivation of Teacher Candidates

Authors: Pál Iván Szontagh

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We suppose that today, the motivation for the career of a pedagogue (including its existential, organizational and infrastructural conditions) is different from the level of commitment to the profession of an educator (which can be experienced informally, or outside of the public education system). In our research, we made efforts to address the widest possible range of student elementary teachers, and to interpret their responses using different filters. In the first phase of our study, we analyzed first-year kindergarten teacher students’ career motivation and commitment to the profession, and in the second phase, that of final-year kindergarten teacher candidates. In the third phase, we conducted surveys to explore students’ motivation for the profession and the career path of a pedagogue in four countries of the Carpathian Basin (Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Serbia). The surveys were conducted in 17 campuses of 11 Hungarian teacher’s training colleges and universities. Finally, we extended the survey to practicing graduates preparing for their on-the-job rating examination. Based on our results, in all breakdowns, regardless of age group, training institute or - in part - geographical location and nationality, it is proven that lack of social- and financial esteem of the profession poses serious risks for recruitment and retention of teachers. As a summary, we searched for significant differences between the professional- and career motivations of the three respondent groups (kindergarten teacher students, elementary teacher students and practicing teachers), i.e. the motivation factors that change the most with education and/or with the time spent on the job. Based on our results, in all breakdowns, regardless of age group, training institute or - in part - geographical location and nationality, it is proven that lack of social- and financial esteem of the profession poses serious risks for recruitment and retention of teachers.

Keywords: career motivation, career socialization, professional motivation, teacher training

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519 Advances in Health Risk Assessment of Mycotoxins in Africa

Authors: Wilfred A. Abiaa, Chibundu N. Ezekiel, Benedikt Warth, Michael Sulyok, Paul C. Turner, Rudolf Krska, Paul F. Moundipa

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Mycotoxins are a wide range of toxic secondary metabolites of fungi that contaminate various food commodities worldwide especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Such contamination seriously compromises food safety and quality posing a serious problem for human health as well as to trade and the economy. Their concentrations depend on various factors, such as the commodity itself, climatic conditions, storage conditions, seasonal variances, and processing methods. When humans consume foods contaminated by mycotoxins, they exert toxic effects to their health through various modes of actions. Rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa, are exposed to dietary mycotoxins, but it is supposed that exposure levels and health risks associated with mycotoxins between SSA countries may vary. Dietary exposures and health risk assessment studies have been limited by lack of equipment for the proper assessment of the associated health implications on consumer populations when they eat contaminated agricultural products. As such, mycotoxin research is premature in several SSA nations with product evaluation for mycotoxin loads below/above legislative limits being inadequate. Few nations have health risk assessment reports mainly based on direct quantification of the toxins in foods ('external exposure') and linking food levels with data from food frequency questionnaires. Nonetheless, the assessment of the exposure and health risk to mycotoxins requires more than the traditional approaches. Only a fraction of the mycotoxins in contaminated foods reaches the blood stream and exert toxicity ('internal exposure'). Also, internal exposure is usually smaller than external exposure thus dependence on external exposure alone may induce confounders in risk assessment. Some studies from SSA earlier focused on biomarker analysis mainly on aflatoxins while a few recent studies have concentrated on the multi-biomarker analysis of exposures in urine providing probable associations between observed disease occurrences and dietary mycotoxins levels. As a result, new techniques that could assess the levels of exposures directly in body tissue or fluid, and possibly link them to the disease state of individuals became urgent.

Keywords: mycotoxins, biomarkers, exposure assessment, health risk assessment, sub-Saharan Africa

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518 Chemical, Structural and Mechanical Optimization of Zr-Based Bulk Metallic Glass for Biomedical Applications

Authors: Eliott Guérin, Remi Daudin, Georges Kalepsi, Alexis Lenain, Sebastien Gravier, Benoit Ter-Ovanessian, Damien Fabregue, Jean-Jacques Blandin

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Due to interesting compromise between mechanical and corrosion properties, Zr-based BMGs are attractive for biomedical applications. However, the enhancement of their glass forming ability (GFA) is often achieved by addition of toxic elements like Ni or Be, which is of course a problem for such applications. Consequently, the development of Ni-free Be-free Zr-based BMGs is of great interest. We have developed a Zr-based (Ni and Be-free) amorphous metallic alloy with an elastic limit twice the one of Ti-6Al-4V. The Zr56Co28Al16 composition exhibits a yield strength close to 2 GPa and low Young’s modulus (close to 90 GPa) [1-2]. In this work, we investigated Niobium (Nb) addition through substitution of Zr up to 8 at%. Cobalt substitution has already been reported [3], but we chose Zr substitution to preserve the glass forming ability. In this case, we show that the glass forming ability for 5 mm diameters rods is maintained up to 3 at% of Nb substitution using suction casting in cooper moulds. Concerning the thermal stability, we measure a strong compositional dependence on the glass transition (Tg). Using DSC analysis (heating rate 20 K/min), we show that the Tg rises from 752 K for 0 at% of Nb to 759 K for 3 at% of Nb. Yet, the thermal range between Tg and the crystallisation temperature (Tx) remains almost unchanged from 33 K to 35 K. Uniaxial compression tests on 2 mm diameter pillars and 3 points bending (3PB) tests on 1 mm thick plates are performed to study the Nb addition on the mechanical properties and the plastic behaviour. With these tests, an optimal Nb concentration is found, improving both plasticity and fatigue resistance. Through interpretations of DSC measurements, an attempt is made to correlate the modifications of the mechanical properties with the structural changes. The optimized chemical, structural and mechanical properties through Nb addition are encouraging to develop the potential of this BMG alloy for biomedical applications. For this purpose, we performed polarisation, immersion and cytotoxicity tests. The figure illustrates the polarisation response of Zr56Co28Al16, Zr54Co28Al16Nb2 and TA6V as a reference after 2h of open circuit potential. The results show that the substitution of Zr by a small amount of Nb significantly improves the corrosion resistance of the alloy.

Keywords: metallic glasses, amorphous metal, medical, mechanical resistance, biocompatibility

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517 Design and Development of Fleet Management System for Multi-Agent Autonomous Surface Vessel

Authors: Zulkifli Zainal Abidin, Ahmad Shahril Mohd Ghani

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Agent-based systems technology has been addressed as a new paradigm for conceptualizing, designing, and implementing software systems. Agents are sophisticated systems that act autonomously across open and distributed environments in solving problems. Nevertheless, it is impractical to rely on a single agent to do all computing processes in solving complex problems. An increasing number of applications lately require multiple agents to work together. A multi-agent system (MAS) is a loosely coupled network of agents that interact to solve problems that are beyond the individual capacities or knowledge of each problem solver. However, the network of MAS still requires a main system to govern or oversees the operation of the agents in order to achieve a unified goal. We had developed a fleet management system (FMS) in order to manage the fleet of agents, plan route for the agents, perform real-time data processing and analysis, and issue sets of general and specific instructions to the agents. This FMS should be able to perform real-time data processing, communicate with the autonomous surface vehicle (ASV) agents and generate bathymetric map according to the data received from each ASV unit. The first algorithm is developed to communicate with the ASV via radio communication using standard National Marine Electronics Association (NMEA) protocol sentences. Next, the second algorithm will take care of the path planning, formation and pattern generation is tested using various sample data. Lastly, the bathymetry map generation algorithm will make use of data collected by the agents to create bathymetry map in real-time. The outcome of this research is expected can be applied on various other multi-agent systems.

Keywords: autonomous surface vehicle, fleet management system, multi agent system, bathymetry

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516 HIV/AIDS Family Dysfunction Trajectories, Child Abuse and Psychosocial Problems among Adolescents

Authors: Paul Narh Doku

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The relationship between parental HIV/AIDS status or death and child mental health is well known, although the role of child maltreatment as a confounder or mediator in this relationship remains uncertain. This study examined the potential path mechanism through child maltreatment mediating the link between HIV/AIDS family dysfunction trajectories and psychosocial problems. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in the Lower Manya Municipal Assembly of Ghana. A questionnaire which consisted of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), Social and Health Assessment (SAHA), Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES), and the Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS) was completed by 291 adolescents. Controlling for relevant sociodemographic confounders, mediation analyses using linear regression were fitted to examine whether the association between family dysfunction and psychosocial problems is mediated by child maltreatment. The results indicate that, among adolescents, child maltreatment fully mediated the association between being orphaned by AIDS and self-esteem, delinquency and risky behaviours, and peer problems. Similarly, child maltreatment fully mediated the association between living with an HIV/AIDS-infected parent and self-esteem, delinquency and risky behaviours, depression/emotional problems, and peer problems. Partial mediation was found for hyperactivity. Child maltreatment mediates the association between the family dysfunction trajectories of parental HIV/AIDS or death and psychosocial problems among adolescents. This implies that efforts to address child maltreatment among families affected by HIV/AIDS may be helpful in the prevention of psychosocial problems among these children, thus enhancing their well-being. The findings, therefore, underscore the need for comprehensive psychosocial interventions that address both the unique negative exposures of HIV/AIDS and maltreatment for children affected by HIV.

Keywords: child maltreatment, child abuse, mental health, psychosocial problems, domestic violence, HIV/AIDS, adolescents

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515 Distribution and Population Status of Canis spp. Threats and Conservation in Lehri Nature Park, Salt Range, District Jhelum

Authors: Muhammad Saad, AzherBaig, Anwar Maqsood, Muhammad Waseem

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The grey wolf has been ranked endangered and Asiatic jackal as near threatened in Pakistan. Scientific data on population and threats to these species are not available in Pakistan, which is required for their proper management and conservation. The present study was conducted to collect data on distribution range, population status and threats to both of these Canis species in Lehri Nature Park. The data were collected using direct observations and indirect signs in the field. The population of grey wolf and Asiatic jackal were scattered into pocket of the study area and its surroundings. The current population of grey wolf was estimated 06 individuals and that of Asiatic jackal 28 individuals in the study area. The present study showed that grey wolf and Asiatic jackal were distributed in the northern and southern part of the study area having dense vegetation cover of tress and shrub between the altitudes of 330 m and 515 m. The research finding revealed that the scrub forest is the most preferred habitat of both the species but due to anthropogenic pressure the scrub forest is under severe threat. The dominant trees species were Acacia modesta, Zizyphus nummularia, and Prosopis juliflora and shrubs species of Dodonea-viscosa, Calotropis procera and Adhatoda vasica. Urial is one of the natural prey species: their population is low due to a number of reasons and therefore the maximum dependence of the wolves was on the livestock of the local and nomadic shepherds. The main prey species in the livestock was goats and sheep. The interviews were conducted with the eye witnesses of wolf attacks including livestock being killed by 5-6 numbers of wolves in different hamlets in the study area. The killing rate of the livestock by the wolves was greater when the nomadic shepherds were present in the area and decreased when they left the area. Presence of nomadic shepherds and killing rate has relation with the shifting of the wolves from the study area. It is further concluded that the population of the grey wolf and Asiatic jackal has decreased over time due to less availability of the natural prey species and habitat destruction.

Keywords: wildlife ecology, population conservation, rehabilitation, conservation

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514 Psychological Aspects of Quality of Life in Patients with Primary and Metastatic Bone Tumors

Authors: O. Yu Shchelkova, E. B. Usmanova

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Introduction: Last decades scientific research of quality of life (QoL) is developing fast worldwide. QoL concept pays attention to emotional experience of disease in patients, particularly to personal sense of possibility to satisfy actual needs and possibility of full social functioning in spite of disease limitations. QoL in oncological patients is studied intensively. Nevertheless, the issue of QoL in patients with bone tumors focused on psychological factors of QoL and relation to disease impact on QoL is not discussed. The aim of the study was to reveal the basic aspects and personality factors of QoL in patients with bone tumor. Results: Study participants were 139 patients with bone tumors. The diagnoses were osteosarcoma (n=42), giant cell tumor (n=32), chondrosarcoma (n=32), Ewing sarcoma (n=10) and bone metastases (n=23). The study revealed that patients with bone metastases assess their health significantly worse than other patients. Besides patients with osteosarcoma evaluate their general health higher than patients with giant cell tumors. Social functioning in patients with chondrosarcoma is higher than in patients with bone metastases and patients with giant cell tumor. Patients with chondrosarcoma have higher physical functioning and less restricted in daily activities than patients with bone metastases. Patients with bone metastases characterize their pain as more widespread than patients with primary bone tumors and have more functional restrictions due to bone incision. Moreover, the study revealed personality significant influence on QoL related to bone tumors. Such characteristics in structure of personality as high degree of self-consciousness, personal resources, cooperation and disposition to positive reappraisal in difficult situation correspond to higher QoL. Otherwise low personal resources and slight problem solving behaviour, low degree of self-consciousness and high social dependence correspond to decrease of QoL in patients with bone tumors. Conclusion: Patients with bone metastasis have lower QoL compared to patients with primary bone tumors. Patients with giant cell tumor have the worth quality of life among patients with primary bone tumors. Furthermore, the results revealed differences in QoL parameters associated with personality characteristics in patients with bone tumors. Such psychological factors as future goals, interest in life and emotional saturation, besides high degree of personal resources and cooperation influence on increasing QoL in patients with bone tumors.

Keywords: quality of life, psychological factors, bone tumor, personality

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513 The Association Between CYP2C19 Gene Distribution and Medical Cannabis Treatment

Authors: Vichayada Laohapiboolkul

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Introduction: As the legal use of cannabis is being widely accepted throughout the world, medical cannabis has been explored in order to become an alternative cure for patients. Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and Cannabidiol (CBD) are natural cannabinoids found in the Cannabis plant which is proved to have positive treatment for various diseases and symptoms such as chronic pain, neuropathic pain, spasticity resulting from multiple sclerosis, reduce cancer-associated pain, autism spectrum disorders (ASD), dementia, cannabis and opioid dependence, psychoses/schizophrenia, general social anxiety, posttraumatic stress disorder, anorexia nervosa, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, and Tourette's disorder. Regardless of all the medical benefits, THC, if not metabolized, can lead to mild up to severe adverse drug reactions (ADR). The enzyme CYP2C19 was found to be one of the metabolizers of THC. However, the suballele CYP2C19*2 manifests as a poor metabolizer which could lead to higher levels of THC than usual, possibly leading to various ADRs. Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the distribution of CYP2C19, specifically CYP2C19*2, genes in Thai patients treated with medical cannabis along with adverse drug reactions. Materials and Methods: Clinical data and EDTA whole blood for DNA extraction and genotyping were collected from patients for this study. CYP2C19*2 (681G>A, rs4244285) genotyping was conducted using the Real-time PCR (ABI, Foster City, CA, USA). Results: There were 42 medical cannabis-induced ADRs cases and 18 medical cannabis tolerance controls who were included in this study. A total of 60 patients were observed where 38 (63.3%) patients were female and 22 (36.7%) were male, with a range of age approximately 19 - 87 years. The most apparent ADRs for medical cannabis treatment were dry mouth/dry throat (76.7%), followed by tachycardia (70%), nausea (30%) and a few arrhythmias (10%). In the total of 27 cases, we found a frequency of 18 CYP2C19*1/*1 alleles (normal metabolizers, 66.7%), 8 CYP2C19*1/*2 alleles (intermediate metabolizers, 29.6%) and 1 CYP2C19*2/*2 alleles (poor metabolizers, 3.7%). Meanwhile, 63.6% of CYP2C19*1/*1, 36.3% and 0% of CYP2C19*1/*2 and *2/*2 in the tolerance controls group, respectively. Conclusions: This is the first study to confirm the distribution of CYP2C19*2 allele and the prevalence of poor metabolizer genes in Thai patients who received medical cannabis for treatment. Thus, CYP2C19 allele might serve as a pharmacogenetics marker for screening before initiating treatment.

Keywords: medical cannabis, adverse drug reactions, CYP2C19, tetrahydrocannabinol, poor metabolizer

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512 The Role of Psychosis Proneness in the Association of Metacognition with Psychological Distress in Non-Clinical Population

Authors: Usha Barahmand, Ruhollah Heydari Sheikh Ahmad

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Distress refers to an unpleasant metal state or emotional suffering marked by negative affect such as depression (e.g., lost interest; sadness; hopelessness), anxiety (e.g., restlessness; feeling tense). These negative affect have been mostly suggested to be concomitant of metal disorders such as positive psychosis symptoms and also of proneness to psychotic features in non-clinical population. Psychotic features proneness including hallucination, delusion and schizotypal traits, have been found to be associated with metacognitive beliefs. Metacognition has been conceptualized as ‘thinking about thoughts, monitoring and controlling of cognitive processes’. The aim of the current study was to investigate the role of psychosis proneness in the association of metacognitions and distress. We predicted psychosis proneness would mediate the association of metacognitive beliefs and the distress. A sample of 420 university students was randomly recruited to endorse questionnaires of the study that consisted of DASS-21questionnaire for assessing levels of distress, Cartwright–Hatton & Wells, Meta-cognitions Questionnaire (MCQ-30) for assessing metacognitive beliefs, Launay-Slade Hallucination Scale-revised (LSHS-R), Peters et al. Delusions Inventory, Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire-Brief. Conducting a bootstrapping approach in order to investigate our hypothesis, the result showed that there was no a direct association between metacognitive dimensions and psychological distress and psychosis proneness significantly mediated the association. Finding suggested that individuals with dysfunctional metacognitive beliefs experience high levels of distress if they are prone to psychosis symptoms. In other words, psychosis proneness is a path through which individuals with dysfunctional metacognitions experience high levels of psychological distress.

Keywords: metacognition, non-clinical population, psychological distress, psychosis proneness

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511 Automated Method Time Measurement System for Redesigning Dynamic Facility Layout

Authors: Salam Alzubaidi, G. Fantoni, F. Failli, M. Frosolini

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The dynamic facility layout problem is a really critical issue in the competitive industrial market; thus, solving this problem requires robust design and effective simulation systems. The sustainable simulation requires inputting reliable and accurate data into the system. So this paper describes an automated system integrated into the real environment to measure the duration of the material handling operations, collect the data in real-time, and determine the variances between the actual and estimated time schedule of the operations in order to update the simulation software and redesign the facility layout periodically. The automated method- time measurement system collects the real data through using Radio Frequency-Identification (RFID) and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies. Hence, attaching RFID- antenna reader and RFID tags enables the system to identify the location of the objects and gathering the time data. The real duration gathered will be manipulated by calculating the moving average duration of the material handling operations, choosing the shortest material handling path, and then updating the simulation software to redesign the facility layout accommodating with the shortest/real operation schedule. The periodic simulation in real-time is more sustainable and reliable than the simulation system relying on an analysis of historical data. The case study of this methodology is in cooperation with a workshop team for producing mechanical parts. Although there are some technical limitations, this methodology is promising, and it can be significantly useful in the redesigning of the manufacturing layout.

Keywords: dynamic facility layout problem, internet of things, method time measurement, radio frequency identification, simulation

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510 Viability of EBT3 Film in Small Dimensions to Be Use for in-Vivo Dosimetry in Radiation Therapy

Authors: Abdul Qadir Jangda, Khadija Mariam, Usman Ahmed, Sharib Ahmed

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The Gafchromic EBT3 film has the characteristic of high spatial resolution, weak energy dependence and near tissue equivalence which makes them viable to be used for in-vivo dosimetry in External Beam and Brachytherapy applications. The aim of this study is to assess the smallest film dimension that may be feasible for the use in in-vivo dosimetry. To evaluate the viability, the film sizes from 3 x 3 mm to 20 x 20 mm were calibrated with 6 MV Photon and 6 MeV electron beams. The Gafchromic EBT3 (Lot no. A05151201, Make: ISP) film was cut into five different sizes in order to establish the relationship between absorbed dose vs. film dimensions. The film dimension were 3 x 3, 5 x 5, 10 x 10, 15 x 15, and 20 x 20 mm. The films were irradiated on Varian Clinac® 2100C linear accelerator for dose range from 0 to 1000 cGy using PTW solid water phantom. The irradiation was performed as per clinical absolute dose rate calibratin setup, i.e. 100 cm SAD, 5.0 cm depth and field size of 10x10 cm2 and 100 cm SSD, 1.4 cm depth and 15x15 cm2 applicator for photon and electron respectively. The irradiated films were scanned with the landscape orientation and a post development time of 48 hours (minimum). Film scanning accomplished using Epson Expression 10000 XL Flatbed Scanner and quantitative analysis carried out with ImageJ freeware software. Results show that the dose variation with different film dimension ranging from 3 x 3 mm to 20 x 20 mm is very minimal with a maximum standard deviation of 0.0058 in Optical Density for a dose level of 3000 cGy and the the standard deviation increases with the increase in dose level. So the precaution must be taken while using the small dimension films for higher doses. Analysis shows that there is insignificant variation in the absorbed dose with a change in film dimension of EBT3 film. Study concludes that the film dimension upto 3 x 3 mm can safely be used up to a dose level of 3000 cGy without the need of recalibration for particular dimension in use for dosimetric application. However, for higher dose levels, one may need to calibrate the films for a particular dimension in use for higher accuracy. It was also noticed that the crystalline structure of the film got damage at the edges while cutting the film, which can contribute to the wrong dose if the region of interest includes the damage area of the film

Keywords: external beam radiotherapy, film calibration, film dosimetery, in-vivo dosimetery

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509 Analysis of the Operating Load of Gas Bearings in the Gas Generator of the Turbine Engine during a Deceleration to Dash Maneuver

Authors: Zbigniew Czyz, Pawel Magryta, Mateusz Paszko

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The paper discusses the status of loads acting on the drive unit of the unmanned helicopter during deceleration to dash maneuver. Special attention was given for the loads of bearings in the gas generator turbine engine, in which will be equipped a helicopter. The analysis was based on the speed changes as a function of time for manned flight of helicopter PZL W3-Falcon. The dependence of speed change during the flight was approximated by the least squares method and then determined for its changes in acceleration. This enabled us to specify the forces acting on the bearing of the gas generator in static and dynamic conditions. Deceleration to dash maneuvers occurs in steady flight at a speed of 222 km/h by horizontal braking and acceleration. When the speed reaches 92 km/h, it dynamically changes an inclination of the helicopter to the maximum acceleration and power to almost maximum and holds it until it reaches its initial speed. This type of maneuvers are used due to ineffective shots at significant cruising speeds. It is, therefore, important to reduce speed to the optimum as soon as possible and after giving a shot to return to the initial speed (cruising). In deceleration to dash maneuvers, we have to deal with the force of gravity of the rotor assembly, gas aerodynamics forces and the forces caused by axial acceleration during this maneuver. While we can assume that the working components of the gas generator are designed so that axial gas forces they create could balance the aerodynamic effects, the remaining ones operate with a value that results from the motion profile of the aircraft. Based on the analysis, we can make a compilation of the results. For this maneuver, the force of gravity (referring to statistical calculations) respectively equals for bearing A = 5.638 N and bearing B = 1.631 N. As overload coefficient k in this direction is 1, this force results solely from the weight of the rotor assembly. For this maneuver, the acceleration in the longitudinal direction achieved value a_max = 4.36 m/s2. Overload coefficient k is, therefore, 0.44. When we multiply overload coefficient k by the weight of all gas generator components that act on the axial bearing, the force caused by axial acceleration during deceleration to dash maneuver equals only 3.15 N. The results of the calculations are compared with other maneuvers such as acceleration and deceleration and jump up and jump down maneuvers. This work has been financed by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

Keywords: gas bearings, helicopters, helicopter maneuvers, turbine engines

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508 Project Production Control (PPC) Implementation for an Offshore Facilities Construction Project

Authors: Muhammad Hakim Bin Mat Tasir, Erwan Shahfizad Hasidan, Hamidah Makmor Bakry, M. Hafiz B. Izhar

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Every key performance indicator used to monitor a project’s construction progress emphasizes trade productivity or specific commodity run-down curves. Examples include the productivity of welding by the number of joints completed per day, quantity of NDT (Non-Destructive Tests) inspection per day, etc. This perspective is based on progress and productivity; however, it does not enable a system perspective of how we produce. This paper uses a project production system perspective by which projects are a collection of production systems comprising the interconnected network of processes and operations that represent all the work activities to execute a project from start to finish. Furthermore, it also uses the 5 Levels of production system optimization as a frame. The goal of the paper is to describe the application of Project Production Control (PPC) to control and improve the performance of several production processes associated with the fabrication and assembly of a Central Processing Platform (CPP) Jacket, part of an offshore mega project. More specifically, the fabrication and assembly of buoyancy tanks as they were identified as part of the critical path and required the highest demand for capacity. In total, seven buoyancy tanks were built, with a total estimated weight of 2,200 metric tons. These huge buoyancy tanks were designed to be reversed launching and self-upending of the jacket, easily retractable, and reusable for the next project, ensuring sustainability. Results showed that an effective application of PPC not only positively impacted construction progress and productivity but also exposed sources of detrimental variability as the focus of continuous improvement practices. This approach augmented conventional project management practices, and the results had a high impact on construction scheduling, planning, and control.

Keywords: offshore, construction, project management, sustainability

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507 Economic Evaluation of an Advanced Bioethanol Manufacturing Technology Using Maize as a Feedstock in South Africa

Authors: Ayanda Ndokwana, Stanley Fore

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Industrial prosperity and rapid expansion of human population in South Africa over the past two decades, have increased the use of conventional fossil fuels such as crude oil, coal and natural gas to meet the country’s energy demands. However, the inevitable depletion of fossil fuel reserves, global volatile oil price and large carbon footprint are some of the crucial reasons the South African Government needs to make a considerable investment in the development of the biofuel industry. In South Africa, this industry is still at the introductory stage with no large scale manufacturing plant that has been commissioned yet. Bioethanol is a potential replacement of gasoline which is a fossil fuel that is used in motor vehicles. Using bioethanol for the transport sector as a source of fuel will help Government to save heavy foreign exchange incurred during importation of oil and create many job opportunities in rural farming. In 2007, the South African Government developed the National Biofuels Industrial Strategy in an effort to make provision for support and attract investment in bioethanol production. However, capital investment in the production of bioethanol on a large scale, depends on the sound economic assessment of the available manufacturing technologies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the profitability of an advanced bioethanol manufacturing technology which uses maize as a feedstock in South Africa. The impact of fiber or bran fractionation in this technology causes it to possess a number of merits such as energy efficiency, low capital expenditure, and profitability compared to a conventional dry-mill bioethanol technology. Quantitative techniques will be used to collect and analyze numerical data from suitable organisations in South Africa. The dependence of three profitability indicators such as the Discounted Payback Period (DPP), Net Present Value (NPV) and Return On Investment (ROI) on plant capacity will be evaluated. Profitability analysis will be done on the following plant capacities: 100 000 ton/year, 150 000 ton/year and 200 000 ton/year. The plant capacity with the shortest Discounted Payback Period, positive Net Present Value and highest Return On Investment implies that a further consideration in terms of capital investment is warranted.

Keywords: bioethanol, economic evaluation, maize, profitability indicators

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506 Russian pipeline natural gas export strategy under uncertainty

Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

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Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

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505 Investigating Homicide Offender Typologies Based on Their Clinical Histories and Crime Scene Behaviour Patterns

Authors: Valeria Abreu Minero, Edward Barker, Hannah Dickson, Francois Husson, Sandra Flynn, Jennifer Shaw

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify offender typologies based on aspects of the offenders’ psychopathology and their associations with crime scene behaviours using data derived from the National Confidential Enquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health concerning homicides in England and Wales committed by offenders in contact with mental health services in the year preceding the offence (n=759). Design/methodology/approach – The authors used multiple correspondence analysis to investigate the interrelationships between the variables and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to identify offender typologies. Variables describing: the offender’s mental health history; the offenders’ mental state at the time of offence; characteristics useful for police investigations; and patterns of crime scene behaviours were included. Findings – Results showed differences in the offender’s histories in relation to their crime scene behaviours. Further, analyses revealed three homicide typologies: externalising, psychosis and depression. Analyses revealed three homicide typologies: externalising, psychotic and depressive. Practical implications – These typologies may assist the police during homicide investigations by: furthering their understanding of the crime or likely suspect; offering insights into crime patterns; provide advice as to what an offender’s offence behaviour might signify about his/her mental health background; findings suggest information concerning offender psychopathology may be useful for offender profiling purposes in cases of homicide offenders with schizophrenia, depression and comorbid diagnosis of personality disorder and alcohol/drug dependence. Originality/value – Empirical studies with an emphasis on offender profiling have almost exclusively focussed on the inference of offender demographic characteristics. This study provides a first step in the exploration of offender psychopathology and its integration to the multivariate analysis of offence information for the purposes of investigative profiling of homicide by identifying the dominant patterns of mental illness within homicidal behaviour.

Keywords: offender profiling, mental illness, psychopathology, multivariate analysis, homicide, crime scene analysis, crime scene behviours, investigative advice

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504 Programmatic Actions of Social Welfare State in Service to Justice: Law, Society and the Third Sector

Authors: Bruno Valverde Chahaira, Matheus Jeronimo Low Lopes, Marta Beatriz Tanaka Ferdinandi

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This paper proposes to dissect the meanings and / or directions of the State, in order, to present the State models to elaborate a conceptual framework about its function in the legal scope. To do so, it points out the possible contracts established between the State and the Society, since the general principles immanent in them can guide the models of society in force. From this orientation arise the contracts, whose purpose is by the effect to modify the status (the being and / or the opinion) of each of the subjects in presence - State and Society. In this logic, this paper announces the fiduciary contracts and “veredicção”(portuguese word) contracts, from the perspective of semiotics discourse (or greimasian). Therefore, studies focus on the issue of manifest language in unilateral and bilateral or reciprocal relations between the State and Society. Thus, under the biases of the model of the communicative situation and discourse, the guidelines of these contractual relations will be analyzed in order to see if there is a pragmatic sanction: positive when the contract is signed between the subjects (reward), or negative when the contract between they are broken (punishment). In this way, a third path emerges which, in this specific case, passes through the subject-third sector. In other words, the proposal, which is systemic in nature, is to analyze whether, since the contract of the welfare state is not carried out in the constitutional program on fundamental rights: education, health, housing, an others. Therefore, in the structure of the exchange demanded by the society according to its contractual obligations (others), the third way (Third Sector) advances in the empty space left by the State. In this line, it presents the modalities of action of the third sector in the social scope. Finally, the normative communication organization of these three subjects is sought in the pragmatic model of discourse, namely: State, Society and Third Sector, in an attempt to understand the constant dynamics in the Law and in the language of the relations established between them.

Keywords: access to justice, state, social rights, third sector

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