Search results for: damage prediction models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10129

Search results for: damage prediction models

8689 Models, Methods and Technologies for Protection of Critical Infrastructures from Cyber-Physical Threats

Authors: Ivan Župan

Abstract:

Critical infrastructure is essential for the functioning of a country and is designated for special protection by governments worldwide. Due to the increase in smart technology usage in every facet of the industry, including critical infrastructure, the exposure to malicious cyber-physical attacks has grown in the last few years. Proper security measures must be undertaken in order to defend against cyber-physical threats that can disrupt the normal functioning of critical infrastructure and, consequently the functioning of the country. This paper provides a review of the scientific literature of models, methods and technologies used to protect from cyber-physical threats in industries. The focus of the literature was observed from three aspects. The first aspect, resilience, concerns itself with the robustness of the system’s defense against threats, as well as preparation and education about potential future threats. The second aspect concerns security risk management for systems with cyber-physical aspects, and the third aspect investigates available testbed environments for testing developed models on scaled models of vulnerable infrastructure.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, cyber-physical security, smart industry, security methodology, security technology

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8688 The Effect of Jujube Extract and Resistance Training on the Reduction of Complications Caused by the Induction of Anabolic Steroid Boldenone on the Histopathological Changes of Pancreatic Tissue of Male Wistar Rats

Authors: Sayyed-javad Ziaolhagh, Ali-Reza Saadatifar

Abstract:

Introduction: Athletes frequently perform anabolic steroid resistance exercise, but the effects of medical doses and abuse along with resistance exercise on structural damage to the Pancreases and also jujube extract are unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of resistance training on body weight and hip fractures induced by boldenone injection in male rats. Materials and methods: In this experimental study, 30 male Wistar rats aged 8-12 weeks (weight 202±9.34 g) were randomly divided into five groups: control, boldenone, extract of iujuba+boldenone, boldenone+resistance training and boldenone+resistance training +extract of jujuba. The resistance training program included climbing the ladder for 8 weeks, 3 days a week, 1 session training in a day and each session consisted of the 3 sets and 5 repetitions. Injection was conducted in depth in the hamstring once a week on an appointed day. After anesthesia, autopsy was performed, and the cardiac tissue was isolated. Results: Results showed that boldenone caused tissue damage, congestion, and nuclei unclear and diffuse. In the group "resistance + Boldenone," The Pancreases tissue showed a high degree of hyperemia, and the muscle cells were somewhat abnormal. In boldenone + jujube, the appearance of the tissue was normal, and the rejuvenating effect was visible. Conclusion: Boldenone appears to cause structural damage to the Pancreases tissue. Strength training with Jujube Extract can reduce part of the pancreatic system disorders (necrosis and inflammation) caused by anabolic steroid use.

Keywords: boldenone, Jujube extract, pancreases tissue, resistance training

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8687 Comparative Analysis of Effecting Factors on Fertility by Birth Order: A Hierarchical Approach

Authors: Ali Hesari, Arezoo Esmaeeli

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Regarding to dramatic changes of fertility and higher order births during recent decades in Iran, access to knowledge about affecting factors on different birth orders has crucial importance. In this study, According to hierarchical structure of many of social sciences data and the effect of variables of different levels of social phenomena that determine different birth orders in 365 days ending to 1390 census have been explored by multilevel approach. In this paper, 2% individual row data for 1390 census is analyzed by HLM software. Three different hierarchical linear regression models are estimated for data analysis of the first and second, third, fourth and more birth order. Research results displays different outcomes for three models. Individual level variables entered in equation are; region of residence (rural/urban), age, educational level and labor participation status and province level variable is GDP per capita. Results show that individual level variables have different effects in these three models and in second level we have different random and fixed effects in these models.

Keywords: fertility, birth order, hierarchical approach, fixe effects, random effects

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8686 Comparison of Different Machine Learning Algorithms for Solubility Prediction

Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

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Molecular solubility prediction plays a crucial role in various fields, such as drug discovery, environmental science, and material science. In this study, we compare the performance of five machine learning algorithms—linear regression, support vector machines (SVM), random forests, gradient boosting machines (GBM), and neural networks—for predicting molecular solubility using the AqSolDB dataset. The dataset consists of 9981 data points with their corresponding solubility values. MACCS keys (166 bits), RDKit properties (20 properties), and structural properties(3) features are extracted for every smile representation in the dataset. A total of 189 features were used for training and testing for every molecule. Each algorithm is trained on a subset of the dataset and evaluated using metrics accuracy scores. Additionally, computational time for training and testing is recorded to assess the efficiency of each algorithm. Our results demonstrate that random forest model outperformed other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy, achieving an 0.93 accuracy score. Gradient boosting machines and neural networks also exhibit strong performance, closely followed by support vector machines. Linear regression, while simpler in nature, demonstrates competitive performance but with slightly higher errors compared to ensemble methods. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the performance of machine learning algorithms for molecular solubility prediction, highlighting the importance of algorithm selection in achieving accurate and efficient predictions in practical applications.

Keywords: random forest, machine learning, comparison, feature extraction

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8685 Ground State Phases in Two-Mode Quantum Rabi Models

Authors: Suren Chilingaryan

Abstract:

We study two models describing a single two-level system coupled to two boson field modes in either a parallel or orthogonal setup. Both models may be feasible for experimental realization through Raman adiabatic driving in cavity QED. We study their ground state configurations; that is, we find the quantum precursors of the corresponding semi-classical phase transitions. We found that the ground state configurations of both models present the same critical coupling as the quantum Rabi model. Around this critical coupling, the ground state goes from the so-called normal configuration with no excitation, the qubit in the ground state and the fields in the quantum vacuum state, to a ground state with excitations, the qubit in a superposition of ground and excited state, while the fields are not in the vacuum anymore, for the first model. The second model shows a more complex ground state configuration landscape where we find the normal configuration mentioned above, two single-mode configurations, where just one of the fields and the qubit are excited, and a dual-mode configuration, where both fields and the qubit are excited.

Keywords: quantum optics, quantum phase transition, cavity QED, circuit QED

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8684 Robust Numerical Scheme for Pricing American Options under Jump Diffusion Models

Authors: Salah Alrabeei, Mohammad Yousuf

Abstract:

The goal of option pricing theory is to help the investors to manage their money, enhance returns and control their financial future by theoretically valuing their options. However, most of the option pricing models have no analytical solution. Furthermore, not all the numerical methods are efficient to solve these models because they have nonsmoothing payoffs or discontinuous derivatives at the exercise price. In this paper, we solve the American option under jump diffusion models by using efficient time-dependent numerical methods. several techniques are integrated to reduced the overcome the computational complexity. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm is used as a matrix-vector multiplication solver, which reduces the complexity from O(M2) into O(M logM). Partial fraction decomposition technique is applied to rational approximation schemes to overcome the complexity of inverting polynomial of matrices. The proposed method is easy to implement on serial or parallel versions. Numerical results are presented to prove the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: integral differential equations, jump–diffusion model, American options, rational approximation

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8683 Therapeutic Effect of Diisopropyldithiocarbamate Sodium Salt Against Diclofenac Induced Testicular Damage in Male Wistar Rats

Authors: Tella Toluwani, Adegbegi Ademuyiwa, Musei Chiedu, Adekunle Odola, Ayangbenro Ayansina, Adaramoye Oluwatosin

Abstract:

Dithiocarbamates are very useful biological agents with antioxidant properties. Diclofenac (DIC) is a non-steroidal analgesic, anti-inflammatory, and antipyretic agent. The use of diclofenac has been linked with reproductive toxicity/damage. The purpose of this study is (i) To investigate the therapeutic potential of diisopropyldithiocarbamate sodium salt (Na(i-Pr₂dtc)) and vitamin E (VIT E) against diclofenac induced toxicity in the testes of male Wistar rats. (ii) To investigate the effect of (Na(i-Pr₂dtc)) and vitamin E on ameliorating damage done to the testes through histological analysis of the testes. Thirty-six (36) male Wistar rats were used for the experiment, they were divided into six (6) groups, the animals in group 1 served as control, animals in groups 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 received DIC only, DIC and (Na(i-Pr₂dtc)), DIC and VIT E, (Na(i-Pr₂dtc) only and VIT E only respectively. A single dose of 100 mg/kg body weight of DIC was administered to male Wistar rats, while 30 mg/kg body weight of (Na(i-Pr₂dtc)) was used to treat both normal and DIC treated animals, control animals were treated with the vehicle, after 24 hrs of treatment the animals were euthanized and the testes were removed for analysis. The treatment of rats with Na(i-Pr₂dtc) significantly restored catalase (CAT) activity depressed by diclofenac. (Na(i-Pr₂dtc)) also restored glutathione levels reduced by DIC treatment and this was also accompanied by reduced lipid peroxidation (LPO) level. VIT E significantly restored superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity when compared with DIC only treated animals. Photomicrographs of testes from (Na(i-Pr₂dtc)) treated rats showed seminiferous epithelium with no lesions. We conclude that (Na(i-Pr₂dtc)) has an antioxidant effect, which might be related to the dose and duration of administration.

Keywords: diisopropyldithiocarbamate sodium salt, diclofenac, vitamin E, testes

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8682 Chemometric Regression Analysis of Radical Scavenging Ability of Kombucha Fermented Kefir-Like Products

Authors: Strahinja Kovacevic, Milica Karadzic Banjac, Jasmina Vitas, Stefan Vukmanovic, Radomir Malbasa, Lidija Jevric, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanovic

Abstract:

The present study deals with chemometric regression analysis of quality parameters and the radical scavenging ability of kombucha fermented kefir-like products obtained with winter savory (WS), peppermint (P), stinging nettle (SN) and wild thyme tea (WT) kombucha inoculums. Each analyzed sample was described by milk fat content (MF, %), total unsaturated fatty acids content (TUFA, %), monounsaturated fatty acids content (MUFA, %), polyunsaturated fatty acids content (PUFA, %), the ability of free radicals scavenging (RSA Dₚₚₕ, % and RSA.ₒₕ, %) and pH values measured after each hour from the start until the end of fermentation. The aim of the conducted regression analysis was to establish chemometric models which can predict the radical scavenging ability (RSA Dₚₚₕ, % and RSA.ₒₕ, %) of the samples by correlating it with the MF, TUFA, MUFA, PUFA and the pH value at the beginning, in the middle and at the end of fermentation process which lasted between 11 and 17 hours, until pH value of 4.5 was reached. The analysis was carried out applying univariate linear (ULR) and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods on the raw data and the data standardized by the min-max normalization method. The obtained models were characterized by very limited prediction power (poor cross-validation parameters) and weak statistical characteristics. Based on the conducted analysis it can be concluded that the resulting radical scavenging ability cannot be precisely predicted only on the basis of MF, TUFA, MUFA, PUFA content, and pH values, however, other quality parameters should be considered and included in the further modeling. This study is based upon work from project: Kombucha beverages production using alternative substrates from the territory of the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina, 142-451-2400/2019-03, supported by Provincial Secretariat for Higher Education and Scientific Research of AP Vojvodina.

Keywords: chemometrics, regression analysis, kombucha, quality control

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8681 Modelling and Optimization of Laser Cutting Operations

Authors: Hany Mohamed Abdu, Mohamed Hassan Gadallah, El-Giushi Mokhtar, Yehia Mahmoud Ismail

Abstract:

Laser beam cutting is one nontraditional machining process. This paper optimizes the parameters of Laser beam cutting machining parameters of Stainless steel (316L) by considering the effect of input parameters viz. power, oxygen pressure, frequency and cutting speed. Statistical design of experiments are carried in three different levels and process responses such as 'Average kerf taper (Ta)' and 'Surface Roughness (Ra)' are measured accordingly. A quadratic mathematical model (RSM) for each of the responses is developed as a function of the process parameters. Responses predicted by the models (as per Taguchi’s L27 OA) are employed to search for an optimal parametric combination to achieve desired yield of the process. RSM models are developed for mean responses, S/N ratio, and standard deviation of responses. Optimization models are formulated as single objective problem subject to process constraints. Models are formulated based on Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) using MATLAB environment. Optimum solutions are compared with Taguchi Methodology results.

Keywords: optimization, laser cutting, robust design, kerf width, Taguchi method, RSM and DOE

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8680 Generating Swarm Satellite Data Using Long Short-Term Memory and Generative Adversarial Networks for the Detection of Seismic Precursors

Authors: Yaxin Bi

Abstract:

Accurate prediction and understanding of the evolution mechanisms of earthquakes remain challenging in the fields of geology, geophysics, and seismology. This study leverages Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), a generative model tailored to time-series data, for generating synthetic time series data based on Swarm satellite data, which will be used for detecting seismic anomalies. LSTMs demonstrated commendable predictive performance in generating synthetic data across multiple countries. In contrast, the GAN models struggled to generate synthetic data, often producing non-informative values, although they were able to capture the data distribution of the time series. These findings highlight both the promise and challenges associated with applying deep learning techniques to generate synthetic data, underscoring the potential of deep learning in generating synthetic electromagnetic satellite data.

Keywords: LSTM, GAN, earthquake, synthetic data, generative AI, seismic precursors

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8679 Development of Liquefaction-Induced Ground Damage Maps for the Wairau Plains, New Zealand

Authors: Omer Altaf, Liam Wotherspoon, Rolando Orense

Abstract:

The Wairau Plains are located in the north-east of the South Island of New Zealand in the region of Marlborough. The region is cut by many active crustal faults such as the Wairau, Awatere, and Clarence faults, which give rise to frequent seismic events. This paper presents the preliminary results of the overall project in which liquefaction-induced ground damage maps are developed in the Wairau Plains based on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment NZ guidance. A suite of maps has been developed in relation to the level of details that was available to inform the liquefaction hazard mapping. Maps at the coarsest level of detail make use of regional geologic information, applying semi-quantitative criteria based on geological age, design peak ground accelerations and depth to the water table. The next level of detail incorporates higher resolution surface geomorphologic characteristics to better delineate potentially liquefiable and non-liquefiable deposits across the region. The most detailed assessment utilised CPT sounding data to develop ground damage response curves for areas across the region and provide a finer level of categorisation of liquefaction vulnerability. Linking these with design level earthquakes defined through NZGS guidelines will enable detailed classification to be carried out at CPT investigation locations, from very low through to high liquefaction vulnerability. To update classifications to these detailed levels, CPT investigations in geomorphic regions are grouped together to provide an indication of the representative performance of the soils in these areas making use of the geomorphic mapping outlined above.

Keywords: hazard, liquefaction, mapping, seismicity

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8678 Structural Damage Detection in a Steel Column-Beam Joint Using Piezoelectric Sensors

Authors: Carlos H. Cuadra, Nobuhiro Shimoi

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Application of piezoelectric sensors to detect structural damage due to seismic action on building structures is investigated. Plate-type piezoelectric sensor was developed and proposed for this task. A film-type piezoelectric sheet was attached on a steel plate and covered by a layer of glass. A special glue is used to fix the glass. This glue is a silicone that requires the application of ultraviolet rays for its hardening. Then, the steel plate was set up at a steel column-beam joint of a test specimen that was subjected to bending moment when test specimen is subjected to monotonic load and cyclic load. The structural behavior of test specimen during cyclic loading was verified using a finite element model, and it was found good agreement between both results on load-displacement characteristics. The cross section of steel elements (beam and column) is a box section of 100 mm×100 mm with a thin of 6 mm. This steel section is specified by the Japanese Industrial Standards as carbon steel square tube for general structure (STKR400). The column and beam elements are jointed perpendicularly using a fillet welding. The resulting test specimen has a T shape. When large deformation occurs the glass plate of the sensor device cracks and at that instant, the piezoelectric material emits a voltage signal which would be the indicator of a certain level of deformation or damage. Applicability of this piezoelectric sensor to detect structural damages was verified; however, additional analysis and experimental tests are required to establish standard parameters of the sensor system.

Keywords: piezoelectric sensor, static cyclic test, steel structure, seismic damages

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8677 Investigation on Remote Sense Surface Latent Heat Temperature Associated with Pre-Seismic Activities in Indian Region

Authors: Vijay S. Katta, Vinod Kushwah, Rudraksh Tiwari, Mulayam Singh Gaur, Priti Dimri, Ashok Kumar Sharma

Abstract:

The formation process of seismic activities because of abrupt slip on faults, tectonic plate moments due to accumulated stress in the Earth’s crust. The prediction of seismic activity is a very challenging task. We have studied the changes in surface latent heat temperatures which are observed prior to significant earthquakes have been investigated and could be considered for short term earthquake prediction. We analyzed the surface latent heat temperature (SLHT) variation for inland earthquakes occurred in Chamba, Himachal Pradesh (32.5 N, 76.1E, M-4.5, depth-5km) nearby the main boundary fault region, the data of SLHT have been taken from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). In this analysis, we have calculated daily variations with surface latent heat temperature (0C) in the range area 1⁰x1⁰ (~120/KM²) with the pixel covering epicenter of earthquake at the center for a three months period prior to and after the seismic activities. The mean value during that period has been considered in order to take account of the seasonal effect. The monthly mean has been subtracted from daily value to study anomalous behavior (∆SLHT) of SLHT during the earthquakes. The results found that the SLHTs adjacent the epicenters all are anomalous high value 3-5 days before the seismic activities. The abundant surface water and groundwater in the epicenter and its adjacent region can provide the necessary condition for the change of SLHT. To further confirm the reliability of SLHT anomaly, it is necessary to explore its physical mechanism in depth by more earthquakes cases.

Keywords: surface latent heat temperature, satellite data, earthquake, magnetic storm

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8676 Evaluating the Hepato-Protective Activities of Combination of Aqueous Extract of Roots of Tinospora cordifolia and Rhizomes of Curcuma longa against Paracetamol Induced Hepatic Damage in Rats

Authors: Amberkar Mohanbabu Vittalrao, Avin, Meena Kumari Kamalkishore, Padmanabha Udupa, Vinaykumar Bavimane, Honnegouda

Abstract:

Objective: To evaluate the hepato-protective activity of Tinospora cordiofolia (Tc) against paracetamol induced hepatic damage in rats. Methods: The plant stem (test drug) was procured locally, shade dried, powdered and extracted with water. Silymarin was used as standard hepatoprotective drugs and 2% gum acacia as a control (vehicle) against paracetamol (PCT) induced hepatotoxicity. Results and Discussion: The hepato-protective activity of aqueous stem extract was assessed by paracetamol induced hepatotoxicity preventive model in rats. Alteration in the levels of biochemical markers of hepatic damage like AST, ALT, ALP and lipid peroxides were tested in both paracetamol treated and untreated groups. Paracetamol (3g/kg) had enhanced the AST, ALT, ALP and the lipid peroxides in the serum. Treatment of silymarin and aqueous stem extract of Tc (200 and 400mg/kg) extract showed significant hepatoprotective activity by altering biochemical marker levels to the near normal. Preliminary phytochemical tests were done. Aqueous Tc extract showed presence of phenolic compound and flavonoids. Our findings suggested that Tc extract possessed hepatoprotective activity in a dose dependent manner. Conclusions: Tc was found to possess significant hepatoprotective property when treated with PCT. This was evident by decreasing the liver enzymes significantly when treated with PCT as compared to PCT only treated group (P < 0.05). Hence Tinospora cardiofolia could be a good, promising, preventive agent against PCT induced hepatotoxicity.

Keywords: Tinospora cardiofolia, hepatoprotection, paracetamol, silymarin

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8675 Vibration and Parametric Instability Analysis of Delaminated Composite Beams

Authors: A. Szekrényes

Abstract:

This paper revisits the free vibration problem of delaminated composite beams. It is shown that during the vibration of composite beams the delaminated parts are subjected to the parametric excitation. This can lead to the dynamic buckling during the motion of the structure. The equation of motion includes time-dependent stiffness and so it leads to a system of Mathieu-Hill differential equations. The free vibration analysis of beams is carried out in the usual way by using beam finite elements. The dynamic buckling problem is investigated locally, and the critical buckling forces are determined by the modified harmonic balance method by using an imposed time function of the motion. The stability diagrams are created, and the numerical predictions are compared to experimental results. The most important findings are the critical amplitudes at which delamination buckling takes place, the stability diagrams representing the instability of the system, and the realistic mode shape prediction in contrast with the unrealistic results of models available in the literature.

Keywords: delamination, free vibration, parametric excitation, sweep excitation

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8674 Prediction of California Bearing Ratio of a Black Cotton Soil Stabilized with Waste Glass and Eggshell Powder using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Biruhi Tesfaye, Avinash M. Potdar

Abstract:

The laboratory test process to determine the California bearing ratio (CBR) of black cotton soils is not only overpriced but also time-consuming as well. Hence advanced prediction of CBR plays a significant role as it is applicable In pavement design. The prediction of CBR of treated soil was executed by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) which is a Computational tool based on the properties of the biological neural system. To observe CBR values, combined eggshell and waste glass was added to soil as 4, 8, 12, and 16 % of the weights of the soil samples. Accordingly, the laboratory related tests were conducted to get the required best model. The maximum CBR value found at 5.8 at 8 % of eggshell waste glass powder addition. The model was developed using CBR as an output layer variable. CBR was considered as a function of the joint effect of liquid limit, plastic limit, and plastic index, optimum moisture content and maximum dry density. The best model that has been found was ANN with 5, 6 and 1 neurons in the input, hidden and output layer correspondingly. The performance of selected ANN has been 0.99996, 4.44E-05, 0.00353 and 0.0067 which are correlation coefficient (R), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) respectively. The research presented or summarized above throws light on future scope on stabilization with waste glass combined with different percentages of eggshell that leads to the economical design of CBR acceptable to pavement sub-base or base, as desired.

Keywords: CBR, artificial neural network, liquid limit, plastic limit, maximum dry density, OMC

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8673 Application of Post-Stack and Pre-Stack Seismic Inversion for Prediction of Hydrocarbon Reservoirs in a Persian Gulf Gas Field

Authors: Nastaran Moosavi, Mohammad Mokhtari

Abstract:

Seismic inversion is a technique which has been in use for years and its main goal is to estimate and to model physical characteristics of rocks and fluids. Generally, it is a combination of seismic and well-log data. Seismic inversion can be carried out through different methods; we have conducted and compared post-stack and pre- stack seismic inversion methods on real data in one of the fields in the Persian Gulf. Pre-stack seismic inversion can transform seismic data to rock physics such as P-impedance, S-impedance and density. While post- stack seismic inversion can just estimate P-impedance. Then these parameters can be used in reservoir identification. Based on the results of inverting seismic data, a gas reservoir was detected in one of Hydrocarbon oil fields in south of Iran (Persian Gulf). By comparing post stack and pre-stack seismic inversion it can be concluded that the pre-stack seismic inversion provides a more reliable and detailed information for identification and prediction of hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Keywords: density, p-impedance, s-impedance, post-stack seismic inversion, pre-stack seismic inversion

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8672 Investigations of Flow Field with Different Turbulence Models on NREL Phase VI Blade

Authors: T. Y. Liu, C. H. Lin, Y. M. Ferng

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Wind energy is one of the clean renewable energy. However, the low frequency (20-200HZ) noise generated from the wind turbine blades, which bothers the residents, becomes the major problem to be developed. It is useful for predicting the aerodynamic noise by flow field and pressure distribution analysis on the wind turbine blades. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to use different turbulence models to analyse the flow field and pressure distributions of the wing blades. Three-dimensional Computation Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation of the flow field was used to calculate the flow phenomena for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Phase VI horizontal axis wind turbine rotor. Two different flow cases with different wind speeds were investigated: 7m/s with 72rpm and 15m/s with 72rpm. Four kinds of RANS-based turbulence models, Standard k-ε, Realizable k-ε, SST k-ω, and v2f, were used to predict and analyse the results in the present work. The results show that the predictions on pressure distributions with SST k-ω and v2f turbulence models have good agreements with experimental data.

Keywords: horizontal axis wind turbine, turbulence model, noise, fluid dynamics

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8671 Climate Change Effects on Agriculture

Authors: Abdellatif Chebboub

Abstract:

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Keywords: climate change, agriculture, weather change, danger of climate change

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8670 Proposing a Strategic Management Maturity Model for Continues Innovation

Authors: Ferhat Demir

Abstract:

Even if strategic management is highly critical for all types of organizations, only a few maturity models have been proposed in business literature for the area of strategic management activities. This paper updates previous studies and presents a new conceptual model for assessing the maturity of strategic management in any organization. Strategic management maturity model (S-3M) is basically composed of 6 maturity levels with 7 dimensions. The biggest contribution of S-3M is to put innovation into agenda of strategic management. The main objective of this study is to propose a model to align innovation with business strategies. This paper suggests that innovation (breakthrough new products/services and business models) is the only way of creating sustainable growth and strategy studies cannot ignore this aspect. Maturity models should embrace innovation to respond dynamic business environment and rapidly changing customer behaviours.

Keywords: strategic management, innovation, business model, maturity model

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8669 A Finite Element Study of Laminitis in Horses

Authors: Naeim Akbari Shahkhosravi, Reza Kakavand, Helen M. S. Davies, Amin Komeili

Abstract:

Equine locomotion and performance are significantly affected by hoof health. One of the most critical diseases of the hoof is laminitis, which can lead to horse lameness in a severe condition. This disease exhibits the mechanical properties degradation of the laminar junction tissue within the hoof. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the biomechanics of the hoof, focusing specifically on excessive and cumulatively accumulated stresses within the laminar junction tissue. For this aim, the current study generated a novel equine hoof Finite Element (FE) model under dynamic physiological loading conditions and employing a hyperelastic material model. Associated tissues of the equine hoof were segmented from computed tomography scans of an equine forelimb, including the navicular bone, third phalanx, sole, frog, laminar junction, digital cushion, and medial- dorsal- lateral wall areas. The inner tissues were connected based on the hoof anatomy, and the hoof was under a dynamic loading over cyclic strides at the trot. The strain distribution on the hoof wall of the model was compared with the published in vivo strain measurements to validate the model. Then the validated model was used to study the development of laminitis. The ultimate stress tolerated by the laminar junction before rupture was considered as a stress threshold. The tissue damage was simulated through iterative reduction of the tissue’s mechanical properties in the presence of excessive maximum principal stresses. The findings of this investigation revealed how damage initiates from the medial and lateral sides of the tissue and propagates through the hoof dorsal area.

Keywords: horse hoof, laminitis, finite element model, continuous damage

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8668 Reburning Characteristics of Biomass Syngas in a Pilot Scale Heavy Oil Furnace

Authors: Sang Heon Han, Daejun Chang, Won Yang

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NOx reduction characteristics of syngas fuel were numerically investigated for the 2MW pilot scale heavy oil furnace of KITECH (Korea Institute of Industrial Technology). The secondary fuel and syngas was fed into the furnace with two purposes- partial replacement of main fuel and reburning of NOx. Some portion of syngas was fed into the flame zone to partially replace the heavy oil, while the other portion was fed into the furnace downstream to reduce NOx generation. The numerical prediction was verified by comparing it with the experimental results. Syngas of KITECH’s experiment, assumed to be produced from biomass, had very low calorific value and contained 3% hydrocarbon. This study investigated the precise behavior of NOx generation and NOx reduction as well as thermo-fluidic characteristics inside the furnace, which was unavailable with experiment. In addition to 3% hydrocarbon syngas, 5%, and 7% hydrocarbon syngas were numerically tested as reburning fuels to analyze the effect of hydrocarbon proportion to NOx reduction. The prediction showed that the 3% hydrocarbon syngas is as much effective as 7% hydrocarbon syngas in reducing NOx.

Keywords: syngas, reburning, heavy oil, furnace

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8667 Correlation between Speech Emotion Recognition Deep Learning Models and Noises

Authors: Leah Lee

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This paper examines the correlation between deep learning models and emotions with noises to see whether or not noises mask emotions. The deep learning models used are plain convolutional neural networks (CNN), auto-encoder, long short-term memory (LSTM), and Visual Geometry Group-16 (VGG-16). Emotion datasets used are Ryerson Audio-Visual Database of Emotional Speech and Song (RAVDESS), Crowd-sourced Emotional Multimodal Actors Dataset (CREMA-D), Toronto Emotional Speech Set (TESS), and Surrey Audio-Visual Expressed Emotion (SAVEE). To make it four times bigger, audio set files, stretch, and pitch augmentations are utilized. From the augmented datasets, five different features are extracted for inputs of the models. There are eight different emotions to be classified. Noise variations are white noise, dog barking, and cough sounds. The variation in the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is 0, 20, and 40. In summation, per a deep learning model, nine different sets with noise and SNR variations and just augmented audio files without any noises will be used in the experiment. To compare the results of the deep learning models, the accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) are checked.

Keywords: auto-encoder, convolutional neural networks, long short-term memory, speech emotion recognition, visual geometry group-16

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8666 Evaluation of Thermal Barrier Coating According to Temperature and Curvature

Authors: Hyunwoo Song, Jeong-Min Lee, Yongseok Kim, Junghan Yun, Jungin Byun, Jae-Mean Koo, Chang-Sung Seok

Abstract:

To avoid the damage of gas turbine blade from high-temperature, thermal barrier coating (TBC) is applied on the blade. However, it is damaged by thermal fatigue during the operation of gas turbine, and this damage lead to delamination of TBC between top coat and bond coat. The blade can be damaged after the failure of TBC, so durability evaluation of TBC should be performed. The durability of thermal barrier coating was decreased according to the increase of temperature, because thermal stress according to increase of temperature. Also, the curvature can be affect to durability of TBC, because the stress is determined by the shape of the TBC. Therefore, the effect of temperature and curvature on the stress should be evaluated. In this study, finite element analysis according to temperature and curvature were performed in the same condition of Kim et al. Finally, the stress was evaluated from the finite element analysis results according to temperature and curvature.

Keywords: curvature, finite element analysis, thermal barrier coating, thermal fatigue, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 551
8665 Operating System Based Virtualization Models in Cloud Computing

Authors: Dev Ras Pandey, Bharat Mishra, S. K. Tripathi

Abstract:

Cloud computing is ready to transform the structure of businesses and learning through supplying the real-time applications and provide an immediate help for small to medium sized businesses. The ability to run a hypervisor inside a virtual machine is important feature of virtualization and it is called nested virtualization. In today’s growing field of information technology, many of the virtualization models are available, that provide a convenient approach to implement, but decision for a single model selection is difficult. This paper explains the applications of operating system based virtualization in cloud computing with an appropriate/suitable model with their different specifications and user’s requirements. In the present paper, most popular models are selected, and the selection was based on container and hypervisor based virtualization. Selected models were compared with a wide range of user’s requirements as number of CPUs, memory size, nested virtualization supports, live migration and commercial supports, etc. and we identified a most suitable model of virtualization.

Keywords: virtualization, OS based virtualization, container based virtualization, hypervisor based virtualization

Procedia PDF Downloads 298
8664 Predicting Wealth Status of Households Using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: Habtamu Ayenew Asegie

Abstract:

Wealth, as opposed to income or consumption, implies a more stable and permanent status. Due to natural and human-made difficulties, households' economies will be diminished, and their well-being will fall into trouble. Hence, governments and humanitarian agencies offer considerable resources for poverty and malnutrition reduction efforts. One key factor in the effectiveness of such efforts is the accuracy with which low-income or poor populations can be identified. As a result, this study aims to predict a household’s wealth status using ensemble Machine learning (ML) algorithms. In this study, design science research methodology (DSRM) is employed, and four ML algorithms, Random Forest (RF), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Light Gradient Boosted Machine (LightGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), have been used to train models. The Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) dataset is accessed for this purpose from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA)'s database. Various data pre-processing techniques were employed, and the model training has been conducted using the scikit learn Python library functions. Model evaluation is executed using various metrics like Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score, area under curve-the receiver operating characteristics (AUC-ROC), and subjective evaluations of domain experts. An optimal subset of hyper-parameters for the algorithms was selected through the grid search function for the best prediction. The RF model has performed better than the rest of the algorithms by achieving an accuracy of 96.06% and is better suited as a solution model for our purpose. Following RF, LightGBM, XGBoost, and AdaBoost algorithms have an accuracy of 91.53%, 88.44%, and 58.55%, respectively. The findings suggest that some of the features like ‘Age of household head’, ‘Total children ever born’ in a family, ‘Main roof material’ of their house, ‘Region’ they lived in, whether a household uses ‘Electricity’ or not, and ‘Type of toilet facility’ of a household are determinant factors to be a focal point for economic policymakers. The determinant risk factors, extracted rules, and designed artifact achieved 82.28% of the domain expert’s evaluation. Overall, the study shows ML techniques are effective in predicting the wealth status of households.

Keywords: ensemble machine learning, households wealth status, predictive model, wealth status prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 24
8663 Estimation of Coefficient of Discharge of Side Trapezoidal Labyrinth Weir Using Group Method of Data Handling Technique

Authors: M. A. Ansari, A. Hussain, A. Uddin

Abstract:

A side weir is a flow diversion structure provided in the side wall of a channel to divert water from the main channel to a branch channel. The trapezoidal labyrinth weir is a special type of weir in which crest length of the weir is increased to pass higher discharge. Experimental and numerical studies related to the coefficient of discharge of trapezoidal labyrinth weir in an open channel have been presented in the present study. Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) with the transfer function of quadratic polynomial has been used to predict the coefficient of discharge for the side trapezoidal labyrinth weir. A new model is developed for coefficient of discharge of labyrinth weir by regression method. Generalized models for predicting the coefficient of discharge for labyrinth weir using Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) network have also been developed. The prediction based on GMDH model is more satisfactory than those given by traditional regression equations.

Keywords: discharge coefficient, group method of data handling, open channel, side labyrinth weir

Procedia PDF Downloads 147
8662 In vivo Protective Effects of Ginger Extract on Cyclophosphamide Induced Chromosomal Aberrations in Bone Marrow Cells of Swiss Mice

Authors: K. Yadamma, K. Rudrama Devi

Abstract:

The protective effect of Ginger Extract against cyclophosphamide induced cytotoxicity was evaluated in in vivo animal model using analysis of chromosomal aberrations in somatic cells of mice. Three doses of Ginger Extract (150mg/kg, 200mg/kg, and 250mg/kg body weight) were selected for modulation and given to animals after priming. The animals were sacrificed 24, 48, 72 hrs after the treatment and slides were prepared for the incidence of chromosomal aberrations in bone marrow cells of mice. When animals were treated with cyclophosphamide 50mg/kg, showed cytogenetic damage in somatic cells. However, a significant decrease was observed in the percentage of chromosomal aberrations when animals were primed with various doses of Ginger Extract. The present results clearly indicate the protective nature of Ginger Extract against cyclophosphamide induced genetic damage in mouse bone marrow cells.

Keywords: ginger extract, protection, bone marrow cells, swiss albino mice

Procedia PDF Downloads 426
8661 Instability Index Method and Logistic Regression to Assess Landslide Susceptibility in County Route 89, Taiwan

Authors: Y. H. Wu, Ji-Yuan Lin, Yu-Ming Liou

Abstract:

This study aims to set up the landslide susceptibility map of County Route 89 at Ren-Ai Township in Nantou County using the Instability Index Method and Logistic regression. Seven susceptibility factors including Slope Angle, Aspect, Elevation, Distance to fold, Distance to River, Distance to Road and Accumulated Rainfall were obtained by GIS based on the Typhoon Toraji landslide area identified by Industrial Technology Research Institute in 2001. To calculate the landslide percentage of each factor and acquire the weight and grade the grid by means of Instability Index Method. In this study, landslide susceptibility can be classified into four grades: high, medium high, medium low and low, in order to determine the advantages and disadvantages of the two models. The precision of this model is verified by classification error matrix and SRC curve. These results suggest that the logistic regression model is a preferred method than instability index in the assessment of landslide susceptibility. It is suitable for the landslide prediction and precaution in this area in the future.

Keywords: instability index method, logistic regression, landslide susceptibility, SRC curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 273
8660 Regression Model Evaluation on Depth Camera Data for Gaze Estimation

Authors: James Purnama, Riri Fitri Sari

Abstract:

We investigate the machine learning algorithm selection problem in the term of a depth image based eye gaze estimation, with respect to its essential difficulty in reducing the number of required training samples and duration time of training. Statistics based prediction accuracy are increasingly used to assess and evaluate prediction or estimation in gaze estimation. This article evaluates Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R-Squared statistical analysis to assess machine learning methods on depth camera data for gaze estimation. There are 4 machines learning methods have been evaluated: Random Forest Regression, Regression Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Regression. The experiment results show that the Random Forest Regression has the lowest RMSE and the highest R-Squared, which means that it is the best among other methods.

Keywords: gaze estimation, gaze tracking, eye tracking, kinect, regression model, orange python

Procedia PDF Downloads 525