Search results for: confidence intervals
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 1622

Search results for: confidence intervals

182 Variation of Carbon Isotope Ratio (δ13C) and Leaf-Productivity Traits in Aquilaria Species (Thymelaeceae)

Authors: Arlene López-Sampson, Tony Page, Betsy Jackes

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Aquilaria genus produces a highly valuable fragrant oleoresin known as agarwood. Agarwood forms in a few trees in the wild as a response to injure or pathogen attack. The resin is used in perfume and incense industry and medicine. Cultivation of Aquilaria species as a sustainable source of the resin is now a common strategy. Physiological traits are frequently used as a proxy of crop and tree productivity. Aquilaria species growing in Queensland, Australia were studied to investigate relationship between leaf-productivity traits with tree growth. Specifically, 28 trees, representing 12 plus trees and 16 trees from yield plots, were selected to conduct carbon isotope analysis (δ13C) and monitor six leaf attributes. Trees were grouped on four diametric classes (diameter at 150 mm above ground level) ensuring the variability in growth of the whole population was sampled. Model averaging technique based on the Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) was computed to identify whether leaf traits could assist in diameter prediction. Carbon isotope values were correlated with height classes and leaf traits to determine any relationship. In average four leaves per shoot were recorded. Approximately one new leaf per week is produced by a shoot. Rate of leaf expansion was estimated in 1.45 mm day-1. There were no statistical differences between diametric classes and leaf expansion rate and number of new leaves per week (p > 0.05). Range of δ13C values in leaves of Aquilaria species was from -25.5 ‰ to -31 ‰ with an average of -28.4 ‰ (± 1.5 ‰). Only 39% of the variability in height can be explained by δ13C in leaf. Leaf δ13C and nitrogen content values were positively correlated. This relationship implies that leaves with higher photosynthetic capacities also had lower intercellular carbon dioxide concentrations (ci/ca) and less depleted values of 13C. Most of the predictor variables have a weak correlation with diameter (D). However, analysis of the 95% confidence of best-ranked regression models indicated that the predictors that could likely explain growth in Aquilaria species are petiole length (PeLen), values of δ13C (true13C) and δ15N (true15N), leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA) and number of new leaf produced per week (NL.week). The model constructed with PeLen, true13C, true15N, LA, SLA and NL.week could explain 45% (R2 0.4573) of the variability in D. The leaf traits studied gave a better understanding of the leaf attributes that could assist in the selection of high-productivity trees in Aquilaria.

Keywords: 13C, petiole length, specific leaf area, tree growth

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181 The Relations between Coping Strategies, Caregiver Bonding, and Dating Violence of Emerging Adults: Cross-Cultural Comparison between China and Turkiye

Authors: Zubaidan Yushan, Hudayar Cıhan

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Turkiye and China are countries that have collective cultures, but they have different cultural backgrounds. They have different cultures, different religions, and different levels of economic development. The aim of this study is to test the moderation effect of caregiver bonding on the relationship between dating violence and coping strategies among unmarried emerging adults in China and Turkiye. Participants ages were 19 and 26 years (X=23.66, SD=3.66), unmarried emerging adults Turkish 171 participants (72.5% women, 24% men, 3.5% prefer not to say), Chinese 170 participants (71.8% women, 21.8% men, 6.5% prefer not to say). All participants had been in a relationship for more than six months. Participants completed The Conflict Tactics Scales—(CTS2), The Cope Inventory, and The Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI). Examining the dating violence and coping strategies of the participant's relationship through caregiver bonding moderation analysis was performed using the Jamovi. Significance was tested using the bootstrapping method with bias-corrected confidence estimates. The outcome variable for analysis was dating violence, and the predictor variable for the analysis was coping strategies. The moderator variable evaluated for the analysis was parent attachment. Before the analysis, the mean-centered scores of each variable and moderator were calculated. Furthermore, the moderation analysis was conducted separately for each outcome. The Moderation analysis results show that the sub-dimension of over-protection moderates psychological aggression perpetration and avoidance coping in China. The sub-dimension of care moderates injury victimization and avoidance management in Turkiye; also, over-protection moderates injury victimization and social support coping. Moreover, the sub-dimension of care moderates sexual coercion perpetration and avoidance coping. In the results, caregiver bonding moderates the relationship between coping strategies and dating violence, which may be explained by the fact that our ways of coping with problems are learned, and people are influenced by their parents when they face problems. Therefore, problem-solving is permanently fixed, and each person has his or her fixed solution, which leads to a habit of using solutions to problems. However, sometimes, these solutions become the justification for the injured or abusive person. The quality of the attachment between parents can regulate this state. The results are somewhat similar to and slightly different from those in the previous literature. These mixed results indicate the need for further exploration. Many other factors, such as alcohol, drug violence, and pathological problems, maybe the reasons for these differences. In addition, diverse factors such as the study environment and the applied measurement scales may also affect the results.

Keywords: caregiver bonding, coping strategies, dating violence, emerging adulthood, cross-cultural, comparison

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180 Embryonic Aneuploidy – Morphokinetic Behaviors as a Potential Diagnostic Biomarker

Authors: Banafsheh Nikmehr, Mohsen Bahrami, Yueqiang Song, Anuradha Koduru, Ayse K. Vuruskan, Hongkun Lu, Mallory Pitts, Tolga B. Mesen, Tamer M. Yalcinkaya

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The number of people who receive in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment has increased on a startling trajectory over the past two decades. Despite advances in this field, particularly the introduction of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) and the preimplantation genetic screening (PGS), the IVF success remains low. A major factor contributing to IVF failure is embryonic aneuploidy (abnormal chromosome content), which often results in miscarriage and birth defects. Although PGS is often used as the standard diagnostic tool to identify aneuploid embryos, it is an invasive approach that could affect the embryo development, and yet inaccessible to many patients due its high costs. As such, there is a clear need for a non-invasive cost-effective approach to identify euploid embryos for single embryo transfer (SET). The reported differences between morphokinetic behaviors of aneuploid and euploid embryos has shown promise to address this need. However, current literature is inconclusive and further research is urgently needed to translate current findings into clinical diagnostics. In this ongoing study, we found significant differences between morphokinetic behaviors of euploid and aneuploid embryos that provides important insights and reaffirms the promise of such behaviors for developing non-invasive methodologies. Methodology—A total of 242 embryos (euploid: 149, aneuploid: 93) from 74 patients who underwent IVF treatment in Carolinas Fertility Clinics in Winston-Salem, NC, were analyzed. All embryos were incubated in an EmbryoScope incubator. The patients were randomly selected from January 2019 to June 2021 with most patients having both euploid and aneuploid embryos. All embryos reached the blastocyst stage and had known PGS outcomes. The ploidy assessment was done by a third-party testing laboratory on day 5-7 embryo biopsies. The morphokinetic variables of each embryo were measured by the EmbryoViewer software (Uniesense FertiliTech) on time-lapse images using 7 focal depths. We compared the time to: pronuclei fading (tPNf), division to 2,3,…,9 cells (t2, t3,…,t9), start of embryo compaction (tSC), Morula formation (tM), start of blastocyst formation (tSC), blastocyst formation (tB), and blastocyst expansion (tEB), as well as intervals between them (e.g., c23 = t3 – t2). We used a mixed regression method for our statistical analyses to account for the correlation between multiple embryos per patient. Major Findings— The average age of the patients was 35.04 yrs. The average patient age associated with euploid and aneuploid embryos was not different (P = 0.6454). We found a significant difference in c45 = t5-t4 (P = 0.0298). Our results indicated this interval on average lasts significantly longer for aneuploid embryos - c45(aneuploid) = 11.93hr vs c45(euploid) = 7.97hr. In a separate analysis limited to embryos from the same patients (patients = 47, total embryos=200, euploid=112, aneuploid=88), we obtained the same results (P = 0.0316). The statistical power for this analysis exceeded 87%. No other variable was different between the two groups. Conclusion— Our results demonstrate the importance of morphokinetic variables as potential biomarkers that could aid in non-invasively characterizing euploid and aneuploid embryos. We seek to study a larger population of embryos and incorporate the embryo quality in future studies.

Keywords: IVF, embryo, euploidy, aneuploidy, morphokinteic

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179 Returning to Work: A Qualitative Exploratory Study of Head and Neck Cancer Survivor Disability and Experience

Authors: Abi Miller, Eleanor Wilson, Claire Diver

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Background: UK Head and Neck Cancer incidence and prevalence were rising related to better treatment outcomes and changed demographics. More people of working-age now survive Head and Neck Cancer. For individuals, work provides income, purpose, and social connection. For society, work increases economic productivity and reduces welfare spending. In the UK, a cancer diagnosis is classed as a disability and more disabled people leave the workplace than non-disabled people. Limited evidence exists on return-to-work after Head and Neck Cancer, with no UK qualitative studies. Head and Neck Cancer survivors appear to return to work less when compared to other cancer survivors. This study aimed to explore the effects of Head and Neck Cancer disability on survivors’ return-to-work experience. Methodologies: This was an exploratory qualitative study using a critical realist approach to carry out semi-structured one-off interviews with Head and Neck Cancer survivors who had returned to work. Interviews were informed by an interview guide and carried out remotely by Microsoft Teams or telephone. Interviews were transcribed verbatim, pseudonyms allocated, and transcripts anonymized. Data were interpreted using Reflexive Thematic Analysis. Findings: Thirteen Head and Neck Cancer survivors aged between 41 -63 years participated in interviews. Three major themes were derived from the data: changed identity and meaning of work after Head and Neck Cancer, challenging and supportive work experiences and impact of healthcare professionals on return-to-work. Participants described visible physical appearance changes, speech and eating challenges, mental health difficulties and psycho-social shifts following Head and Neck Cancer. These factors affected workplace re-integration, ability to carry out work duties, and work relationships. Most participants experienced challenging work experiences, including stigmatizing workplace interactions and poor communication from managers or colleagues, which further affected participant confidence and mental health. Many participants experienced job change or loss, related both to Head and Neck Cancer and living through a pandemic. A minority of participants experienced strategies like phased return, which supported workplace re-integration. All participants, bar one, wanted conversations with healthcare professionals about return-to-work but perceived these conversations as absent. Conclusion: All participants found returning to work after Head and Neck Cancer to be a challenging experience. This appears to be impacted by participant physical, psychological, and functional disability following Head and Neck Cancer, work interaction and work context.

Keywords: disability, experience, head and neck cancer, qualitative, return-to-work

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178 Construction and Validation of Allied Bank-Teller Aptitude Test

Authors: Muhammad Kashif Fida

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In the bank, teller’s job (cash officer) is highly important and critical as at one end it requires soft and brisk customer services and on the other side, handling cash with integrity. It is always challenging for recruiters to hire competent and trustworthy tellers. According to author’s knowledge, there is no comprehensive test available that may provide assistance in recruitment in Pakistan. So there is a dire need of a psychometric battery that could provide support in recruitment of potential candidates for the teller’ position. So, the aim of the present study was to construct ABL-Teller Aptitude Test (ABL-TApT). Three major phases have been designed by following American Psychological Association’s guidelines. The first phase was qualitative, indicators of the test have been explored by content analysis of the a) teller’s job descriptions (n=3), b) interview with senior tellers (n=6) and c) interview with HR personals (n=4). Content analysis of above yielded three border constructs; i). Personality, ii). Integrity/honesty, iii). Professional Work Aptitude. Identified indicators operationalized and statements (k=170) were generated using verbatim. It was then forwarded to the five experts for review of content validity. They finalized 156 items. In the second phase; ABL-TApT (k=156) administered on 323 participants through a computer application. The overall reliability of the test shows significant alpha coefficient (α=.81). Reliability of subscales have also significant alpha coefficients. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) performed to estimate the construct validity, confirms four main factors comprising of eight personality traits (Confidence, Organized, Compliance, Goal-oriented, Persistent, Forecasting, Patience, Caution), one Integrity/honesty factor, four factors of professional work aptitude (basic numerical ability and perceptual accuracy of letters, numbers and signature) and two factors for customer services (customer services, emotional maturity). Values of GFI, AGFI, NNFI, CFI, RFI and RMSEA are in recommended range depicting significant model fit. In third phase concurrent validity evidences have been pursued. Personality and integrity part of this scale has significant correlations with ‘conscientiousness’ factor of NEO-PI-R, reflecting strong concurrent validity. Customer services and emotional maturity have significant correlations with ‘Bar-On EQI’ showing another evidence of strong concurrent validity. It is concluded that ABL-TAPT is significantly reliable and valid battery of tests, will assist in objective recruitment of tellers and help recruiters in finding a more suitable human resource.

Keywords: concurrent validity, construct validity, content validity, reliability, teller aptitude test, objective recruitment

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177 The Diagnostic Utility and Sensitivity of the Xpert® MTB/RIF Assay in Diagnosing Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Bone Marrow Aspirate Specimens

Authors: Nadhiya N. Subramony, Jenifer Vaughan, Lesley E. Scott

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In South Africa, the World Health Organisation estimated 454000 new cases of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) infection (MTB) in 2015. Disseminated tuberculosis arises from the haematogenous spread and seeding of the bacilli in extrapulmonary sites. The gold standard for the detection of MTB in bone marrow is TB culture which has an average turnaround time of 6 weeks. Histological examinations of trephine biopsies to diagnose MTB also have a time delay owing mainly to the 5-7 day processing period prior to microscopic examination. Adding to the diagnostic delay is the non-specific nature of granulomatous inflammation which is the hallmark of MTB involvement of the bone marrow. A Ziehl-Neelson stain (which highlights acid-fast bacilli) is therefore mandatory to confirm the diagnosis but can take up to 3 days for processing and evaluation. Owing to this delay in diagnosis, many patients are lost to follow up or remain untreated whilst results are awaited, thus encouraging the spread of undiagnosed TB. The Xpert® MTB/RIF (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA) is the molecular test used in the South African national TB program as the initial diagnostic test for pulmonary TB. This study investigates the optimisation and performance of the Xpert® MTB/RIF on bone marrow aspirate specimens (BMA), a first since the introduction of the assay in the diagnosis of extrapulmonary TB. BMA received for immunophenotypic analysis as part of the investigation into disseminated MTB or in the evaluation of cytopenias in immunocompromised patients were used. Processing BMA on the Xpert® MTB/RIF was optimised to ensure bone marrow in EDTA and heparin did not inhibit the PCR reaction. Inactivated M.tb was spiked into the clinical bone marrow specimen and distilled water (as a control). A volume of 500mcl and an incubation time of 15 minutes with sample reagent were investigated as the processing protocol. A total of 135 BMA specimens had sufficient residual volume for Xpert® MTB/RIF testing however 22 specimens (16.3%) were not included in the final statistical analysis as an adequate trephine biopsy and/or TB culture was not available. Xpert® MTB/RIF testing was not affected by BMA material in the presence of heparin or EDTA, but the overall detection of MTB in BMA was low compared to histology and culture. Sensitivity of the Xpert® MTB/RIF compared to both histology and culture was 8.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-28.04%) and sensitivity compared to histology only was 11.1% (95% CI: 1.38-34.7%). Specificity of the Xpert® MTB/RIF was 98.9% (95% CI: 93.9-99.7%). Although the Xpert® MTB/RIF generates a faster result than histology and TB culture and is less expensive than culture and drug susceptibility testing, the low sensitivity of the Xpert® MTB/RIF precludes its use for the diagnosis of MTB in bone marrow aspirate specimens and warrants alternative/additional testing to optimise the assay.

Keywords: bone marrow aspirate , extrapulmonary TB, low sensitivity, Xpert® MTB/RIF

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176 Optimization of MAG Welding Process Parameters Using Taguchi Design Method on Dead Mild Steel

Authors: Tadele Tesfaw, Ajit Pal Singh, Abebaw Mekonnen Gezahegn

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Welding is a basic manufacturing process for making components or assemblies. Recent welding economics research has focused on developing the reliable machinery database to ensure optimum production. Research on welding of materials like steel is still critical and ongoing. Welding input parameters play a very significant role in determining the quality of a weld joint. The metal active gas (MAG) welding parameters are the most important factors affecting the quality, productivity and cost of welding in many industrial operations. The aim of this study is to investigate the optimization process parameters for metal active gas welding for 60x60x5mm dead mild steel plate work-piece using Taguchi method to formulate the statistical experimental design using semi-automatic welding machine. An experimental study was conducted at Bishoftu Automotive Industry, Bishoftu, Ethiopia. This study presents the influence of four welding parameters (control factors) like welding voltage (volt), welding current (ampere), wire speed (m/min.), and gas (CO2) flow rate (lit./min.) with three different levels for variability in the welding hardness. The objective functions have been chosen in relation to parameters of MAG welding i.e., welding hardness in final products. Nine experimental runs based on an L9 orthogonal array Taguchi method were performed. An orthogonal array, signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio and analysis of variance (ANOVA) are employed to investigate the welding characteristics of dead mild steel plate and used in order to obtain optimum levels for every input parameter at 95% confidence level. The optimal parameters setting was found is welding voltage at 22 volts, welding current at 125 ampere, wire speed at 2.15 m/min and gas flow rate at 19 l/min by using the Taguchi experimental design method within the constraints of the production process. Finally, six conformations welding have been carried out to compare the existing values; the predicated values with the experimental values confirm its effectiveness in the analysis of welding hardness (quality) in final products. It is found that welding current has a major influence on the quality of welded joints. Experimental result for optimum setting gave a better hardness of welding condition than initial setting. This study is valuable for different material and thickness variation of welding plate for Ethiopian industries.

Keywords: Weld quality, metal active gas welding, dead mild steel plate, orthogonal array, analysis of variance, Taguchi method

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175 An Initiative for Improving Pre-Service Teachers’ Pedagogical Content Knowledge in Mathematics

Authors: Taik Kim

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Mathematics anxiety has an important consequence for teacher practices that influence students’ attitudes and achievement. Elementary prospective teachers have the highest levels of mathematics anxiety in comparison with other college majors. In his teaching practice, the researcher developed a highly successful teaching model to reduce pre-service teachers’ higher math anxiety and simultaneously to improve their pedagogical math content knowledge. There were eighty one participants from 2015 to 2018 who took the Mathematics for Elementary Teachers I and II. As the analysis data indicated, elementary prospective teachers’ math anxiety was greatly reduced with improving their math pedagogical knowledge. U.S encounters a critical shortage of well qualified educators. To solve the issue, it is essential to engage students in a long-term commitmentto shape better teachers, who will, in turn, produce k-12 school students that are better-prepared for college students. It is imperative that new instructional strategies are implemented to improve student learning and address declining interest, poor preparedness, a lack of diverse representation, and low persistence of students in mathematics. Many four year college students take math courses from the math department in the College of Arts& Science and then take methodology courses from the College of Education. Before taking pedagogy, many students struggle in learning mathematics and lose their confidence. Since the content course focus on college level math, instead of pre service teachers’ teaching area, per se elementary math, they do not have a chance to improve their teaching skills on topics which eventually they teach. The research, a joint appointment of math and math education, has been involved in teaching content and pedagogy. As the result indicated, participants were able to math content at the same time how to teach. In conclusion, the new initiative to use several teaching strategies was able not only to increase elementary prospective teachers’ mathematical skills and knowledge but also to improve their attitude toward mathematics. We need an innovative teaching strategy which implements evidence-based tactics in redesigning a education and math to improve pre service teachers’math skills and which can improve students’ attitude toward math and students’ logical and reasoning skills. Implementation of these best practices in the local school district is particularly important because K-8 teachers are not generally familiar with lab-based instruction. At the same time, local school teachers will learn a new way how to teach math. This study can be a vital teacher education model expanding throughout the State and nationwide. In summary, this study yields invaluable information how to improve teacher education in the elementary level and, eventually, how to enhance K-8 students’ math achievement.

Keywords: quality of education and improvement method, teacher education, innovative teaching and learning methodologies, math education

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174 Technology Changing Senior Care

Authors: John Kosmeh

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Introduction – For years, senior health care and skilled nursing facilities have been plagued with the dilemma of not having the necessary tools and equipment to adequately care for senior residents in their communities. This has led to high transport rates to emergency departments and high 30-day readmission rates, costing billions of unnecessary dollars each year, as well as quality assurance issues. Our Senior care telemedicine program is designed to solve this issue. Methods – We conducted a 1-year pilot program using our technology coupled with our 24/7 telemedicine program with skilled nursing facilities in different parts of the United States. We then compared transports rates and 30-day readmission rates to previous years before the use of our program, as well as transport rates of other communities of similar size not using our program. This data was able to give us a clear and concise look at the success rate of reducing unnecessary transport and readmissions as well as cost savings. Results – A 94% reduction nationally of unnecessary out-of-facility transports, and to date, complete elimination of 30-day readmissions. Our virtual platform allowed us to instruct facility staff on the utilization of our tools and system as well as deliver treatment by our ER-trained providers. Delay waiting for PCP callbacks was eliminated. We were able to obtain lung, heart, and abdominal ultrasound imaging, 12 lead EKG, blood labs, auscultate lung and heart sounds, and collect other diagnostic tests at the bedside within minutes, providing immediate care and allowing us to treat residents within the SNF. Are virtual capabilities allowed for loved ones, family members, and others who had medical power of attorney to virtually connect with us at the time of visit, to speak directly with the medical provider, providing increased confidence in the decision to treat the resident in-house. The decline in transports and readmissions will greatly reduce governmental cost burdens, as well as fines imposed on SNF for high 30-day readmissions, reduce the cost of Medicare A readmissions, and significantly impact the number of patients visiting overcrowded ERs. Discussion – By utilizing our program, SNF can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary transports of residents, as well as create significant savings from loss of day rates, transportation costs, and high CMS fines. The cost saving is in the thousands monthly, but more importantly, these facilities can create a higher quality of life and medical care for residents by providing definitive care instantly with ER-trained personnel.

Keywords: senior care, long term care, telemedicine, technology, senior care communities

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173 The Challenge of Assessing Social AI Threats

Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Theofanis Fotis, Nineta Polemi

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The European Union (EU) directive Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act in Article 9 requires that risk management of AI systems includes both technical and human oversight, while according to NIST_AI_RFM (Appendix C) and ENISA AI Framework recommendations, claim that further research is needed to understand the current limitations of social threats and human-AI interaction. AI threats within social contexts significantly affect the security and trustworthiness of the AI systems; they are interrelated and trigger technical threats as well. For example, lack of explainability (e.g. the complexity of models can be challenging for stakeholders to grasp) leads to misunderstandings, biases, and erroneous decisions. Which in turn impact the privacy, security, accountability of the AI systems. Based on the NIST four fundamental criteria for explainability it can also classify the explainability threats into four (4) sub-categories: a) Lack of supporting evidence: AI systems must provide supporting evidence or reasons for all their outputs. b) Lack of Understandability: Explanations offered by systems should be comprehensible to individual users. c) Lack of Accuracy: The provided explanation should accurately represent the system's process of generating outputs. d) Out of scope: The system should only function within its designated conditions or when it possesses sufficient confidence in its outputs. Biases may also stem from historical data reflecting undesired behaviors. When present in the data, biases can permeate the models trained on them, thereby influencing the security and trustworthiness of the of AI systems. Social related AI threats are recognized by various initiatives (e.g., EU Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI), standards (e.g. ISO/IEC TR 24368:2022 on AI ethical concerns, ISO/IEC AWI 42105 on guidance for human oversight of AI systems) and EU legislation (e.g. the General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679, the NIS 2 Directive 2022/2555, the Directive on the Resilience of Critical Entities 2022/2557, the EU AI Act, the Cyber Resilience Act). Measuring social threats, estimating the risks to AI systems associated to these threats and mitigating them is a research challenge. In this paper it will present the efforts of two European Commission Projects (FAITH and THEMIS) from the HorizonEurope programme that analyse the social threats by building cyber-social exercises in order to study human behaviour, traits, cognitive ability, personality, attitudes, interests, and other socio-technical profile characteristics. The research in these projects also include the development of measurements and scales (psychometrics) for human-related vulnerabilities that can be used in estimating more realistically the vulnerability severity, enhancing the CVSS4.0 measurement.

Keywords: social threats, artificial Intelligence, mitigation, social experiment

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172 Subjective Probability and the Intertemporal Dimension of Probability to Correct the Misrelation Between Risk and Return of a Financial Asset as Perceived by Investors. Extension of Prospect Theory to Better Describe Risk Aversion

Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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171 Physical Activity in Pacific Adolescent Girls with a Physical Disability

Authors: Caroline Dickson

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While adolescence can be a challenging time, it may also be a time of opportunity. Whereas adolescents with a physical disability negotiate the adolescent developmental stage with similar issues to able-bodied adolescents, they additionally may encounter developmental problems which may impede their adulthood. In part due to the restricted opportunities disabled adolescents experience, they may experience difficulty with mastering this developmental stage. As is well documented, health and wellbeing are positively associated with participating in physical activity. However, the little research available suggested that Pacific adolescents generally are participating in less physical activity than adolescents of other ethnic groups. Objective/Study: The main aim of the study (from a larger mixed method study), was to explore physical activity participation in Pacific adolescent girls with a physical disability in relation to their physiological and psychological wellbeing. The qualitative descriptive study comprised of seven interviews with Pacific adolescent girls and their mothers in a family setting and also included the providers of services to Pacific girls with a physical disability. Including the providers of disability services allowed the researchers to identity a further understanding into challenges of participation for the Pacific adolescent girls and their families while the girls were attempting to participate in physical activity. The purpose of the talanoa (face-to-face interviews that were deemed informal) was to identify partaking and factors influencing participation in physical activity, whilst listening to the voices of the participants. The stories revealed the multitude of factors that influenced physical activity for the Pacific girls with a physical disability. Results: Findings from the qualitative descriptive study found that through physical activity, the Pacific adolescent girls with a physical disability experienced benefits from participation. The findings suggested that these girls wanted to participate in physical activity and clearly indicated the physical activities they preferred. Amongst the physiological and psychological benefits of the Pacific adolescents engaging in physical activity, the adolescents were able to develop positive social relationships, experience autonomy, and generally, their self-worth improved while building confidence. Nevertheless, the adolescents experienced a multitude of factors impeding their engagement in physical activity including cultural stigmas. Their participation was influenced by the interplay of a range of gender, cultural, age-related (adolescence) and socio-economic factors alongside policy and structurally related constraints. Conclusion: Physical activity has the potential to improve the general physiological and psychological health of all adolescents. It should be prioritised particularly in vulnerable populations where they may have limited access. As the Pacific adolescents with a physical activity are dependent on their families for physical activity participation, it is imperative the family be included and consulted. To increase participation, and reduce sedentary behaviours, factors influencing both participation and non-participation need to be considered.

Keywords: Pacific adolescent girls, physical activity, physical disability, qualitative descriptive study

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170 Cross-Validation of the Data Obtained for ω-6 Linoleic and ω-3 α-Linolenic Acids Concentration of Hemp Oil Using Jackknife and Bootstrap Resampling

Authors: Vibha Devi, Shabina Khanam

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Hemp (Cannabis sativa) possesses a rich content of ω-6 linoleic and ω-3 linolenic essential fatty acid in the ratio of 3:1, which is a rare and most desired ratio that enhances the quality of hemp oil. These components are beneficial for the development of cell and body growth, strengthen the immune system, possess anti-inflammatory action, lowering the risk of heart problem owing to its anti-clotting property and a remedy for arthritis and various disorders. The present study employs supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) approach on hemp seed at various conditions of parameters; temperature (40 - 80) °C, pressure (200 - 350) bar, flow rate (5 - 15) g/min, particle size (0.430 - 1.015) mm and amount of co-solvent (0 - 10) % of solvent flow rate through central composite design (CCD). CCD suggested 32 sets of experiments, which was carried out. As SFE process includes large number of variables, the present study recommends the application of resampling techniques for cross-validation of the obtained data. Cross-validation refits the model on each data to achieve the information regarding the error, variability, deviation etc. Bootstrap and jackknife are the most popular resampling techniques, which create a large number of data through resampling from the original dataset and analyze these data to check the validity of the obtained data. Jackknife resampling is based on the eliminating one observation from the original sample of size N without replacement. For jackknife resampling, the sample size is 31 (eliminating one observation), which is repeated by 32 times. Bootstrap is the frequently used statistical approach for estimating the sampling distribution of an estimator by resampling with replacement from the original sample. For bootstrap resampling, the sample size is 32, which was repeated by 100 times. Estimands for these resampling techniques are considered as mean, standard deviation, variation coefficient and standard error of the mean. For ω-6 linoleic acid concentration, mean value was approx. 58.5 for both resampling methods, which is the average (central value) of the sample mean of all data points. Similarly, for ω-3 linoleic acid concentration, mean was observed as 22.5 through both resampling. Variance exhibits the spread out of the data from its mean. Greater value of variance exhibits the large range of output data, which is 18 for ω-6 linoleic acid (ranging from 48.85 to 63.66 %) and 6 for ω-3 linoleic acid (ranging from 16.71 to 26.2 %). Further, low value of standard deviation (approx. 1 %), low standard error of the mean (< 0.8) and low variance coefficient (< 0.2) reflect the accuracy of the sample for prediction. All the estimator value of variance coefficients, standard deviation and standard error of the mean are found within the 95 % of confidence interval.

Keywords: resampling, supercritical fluid extraction, hemp oil, cross-validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 128
169 The Communication of Audit Report: Key Audit Matters in United Kingdom

Authors: L. Sierra, N. Gambetta, M. A. Garcia-Benau, M. Orta

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Financial scandals and financial crisis have led to an international debate on the value of auditing. In recent years there have been significant legislative reforms aiming to increase markets’ confidence in audit services. In particular, there has been a significant debate on the need to improve the communication of auditors with audit reports users as a way to improve its informative value and thus, to improve audit quality. The International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB) has proposed changes to the audit report standards. The International Standard on Auditing 701, Communicating Key Audit Matters (KAM) in the Independent Auditor's Report, has introduced new concepts that go beyond the auditor's opinion and requires to disclose the risks that, from the auditor's point of view, are more significant in the audited company information. Focusing on the companies included in the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 index, this study aims to focus on the analysis of the determinants of the number of KAM disclosed by the auditor in the audit report and moreover, the analysis of the determinants of the different type of KAM reported during the period 2013-2015. To test the hypotheses in the empirical research, two different models have been used. The first one is a linear regression model to identify the client’s characteristics, industry sector and auditor’s characteristics that are related to the number of KAM disclosed in the audit report. Secondly, a logistic regression model is used to identify the determinants of the number of each KAM type disclosed in the audit report; in line with the risk-based approach to auditing financial statements, we categorized the KAM in 2 groups: Entity-level KAM and Accounting-level KAM. Regarding the auditor’s characteristics impact on the KAM disclosure, the results show that PwC tends to report a larger number of KAM while KPMG tends to report less KAM in the audit report. Further, PwC reports a larger number of entity-level risk KAM while KPMG reports less account-level risk KAM. The results also show that companies paying higher fees tend to have more entity-level risk KAM and less account-level risk KAM. The materiality level is positively related to the number of account-level risk KAM. Additionally, these study results show that the relationship between client’s characteristics and number of KAM is more evident in account-level risk KAM than in entity-level risk KAM. A highly leveraged company carries a great deal of risk, but due to this, they are usually subject to strong capital providers monitoring resulting in less account-level risk KAM. The results reveal that the number of account-level risk KAM is strongly related to the industry sector in which the company operates assets. This study helps to understand the UK audit market, provides information to auditors and finally, it opens new research avenues in the academia.

Keywords: FTSE 100, IAS 701, key audit matters, auditor’s characteristics, client’s characteristics

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168 Human Interaction Skills and Employability in Courses with Internships: Report of a Decade of Success in Information Technology

Authors: Filomena Lopes, Miguel Magalhaes, Carla Santos Pereira, Natercia Durao, Cristina Costa-Lobo

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The option to implement curricular internships with undergraduate students is a pedagogical option with some good results perceived by academic staff, employers, and among graduates in general and IT (Information Technology) in particular. Knowing that this type of exercise has never been so relevant, as one tries to give meaning to the future in a landscape of rapid and deep changes. We have as an example the potential disruptive impact on the jobs of advances in robotics, artificial intelligence and 3-D printing, which is a focus of fierce debate. It is in this context that more and more students and employers engage in the pursuit of career-promoting responses and business development, making their investment decisions of training and hiring. Three decades of experience and research in computer science degree and in information systems technologies degree at the Portucalense University, Portuguese private university, has provided strong evidence of its advantages. The Human Interaction Skills development as well as the attractiveness of such experiences for students are topics assumed as core in the Ccnception and management of the activities implemented in these study cycles. The objective of this paper is to gather evidence of the Human Interaction Skills explained and valued within the curriculum internship experiences of IT students employability. Data collection was based on the application of questionnaire to intern counselors and to students who have completed internships in these undergraduate courses in the last decade. The trainee supervisor, responsible for monitoring the performance of IT students in the evolution of traineeship activities, evaluates the following Human Interaction Skills: Motivation and interest in the activities developed, interpersonal relationship, cooperation in company activities, assiduity, ease of knowledge apprehension, Compliance with norms, insertion in the work environment, productivity, initiative, ability to take responsibility, creativity in proposing solutions, and self-confidence. The results show that these undergraduate courses promote the development of Human Interaction Skills and that these students, once they finish their degree, are able to initiate remunerated work functions, mainly by invitation of the institutions in which they perform curricular internships. Findings obtained from the present study contribute to widen the analysis of its effectiveness in terms of future research and actions in regard to the transition from Higher Education pathways to the Labour Market.

Keywords: human interaction skills, employability, internships, information technology, higher education

Procedia PDF Downloads 274
167 Geochemical Characterization of Geothermal Waters in Albania, Preliminary Results

Authors: Aurela Jahja, Katarzyna Wątor, Arjan Beqiraj, Piotr Rusiniak, Nevton Kodhelaj

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Albanian geological terrains represent an important node of the Alpine – Mediterranean mountain belt and are divided into several predominantly NNW - SSE striking geotectonic units, which, based on the presence or lack of Cretaceous transgression and magmatic rocks, belong to Internal or External Albanides. The internal (Korabi, Mirdita and Gashi) units are characterized by the Lower Cretaceous discordance and the presence of abundant magmatic rocks whereas in the external (Alps, Krasta-Cukali, Kruja, Ionian, Sazani and Peri Adriatic Depression) units an almost continuous sedimentation from Triassic to Paleogene is evidenced. The internal and external units show relevant differences in both geothermal and heat flow density values. The gradient values vary from 15-21.3 to 36 mK/m, while the heat flow density ranges from 42 to 60 mW/m2, in the external (Preadriatic Depression) and internal (ophiolitic belt) units, respectively. The geothermal fluids, which are found in natural springs and deep oil wells of Albania, are located in four thermo-mineral provinces: a) Peshkopi (Korabi) province; b) Kruja province; c) Preadriatic basin province, and d) South Ionian province. Thirteen geothermal waters were sampled from 11 natural springs and 2 deep wells, of which 6 springs and 2 wells from Kruja, 1 spring from Peshkopia, 2 springs from Preadriatic basin and 2 springs South Ionian province. Temperature, pH and Electrical Conductivity were measured in situ, while in laboratory were analyzed by ICP method major anions and cations and several trace elements (B, Li, Sr, Rb, I, Br, etc.). The measured values of temperature, pH and electrical conductivity range within 17-63°C, 6.26-7.92 and 724- 26856µS/cm intervals, respectively. The chemical type of the Albania thermal waters is variable. In the Kruja province prevail the Cl-SO4-NaCa and Cl-Na-Ca water types; while SO4-Ca, HCO3-Ca and Cl-HCO3-Na-Ca, and Cl-Na are found in the provinces of Peshkopi, Ionian and Preadriatic basin, respectively. In the Cl-SO4-HCO3 triangular diagram most of the geothermal waters are close to the chloride corner that belong to “mature waters”, typical of geothermal deep and hot fluids. Only samples from the Ionian province are located within the region of high bicarbonate concentration and they can be classified as peripheral waters that may have mixed with cold groundwater. In the Na-Ca-Mg and Na-K-Mg triangular diagram the majority of waters fall in the corner of sodium, suggesting that their cation ratios are controlled by mineral-solution equilibrium. There is a linear relationship between Cl and B which indicates the mixing of geothermal water with cold water, where the low-chlorine thermal waters from Ionian basin and Preadriatic depression provinces are distinguished by high-chlorine thermal waters from Kruja province. The Cl/Br molar ration of the thermal waters from Kruja province ranges from 1000 to 2660 and separates them from the thermal waters of Ionian basin and Preadriatic depression provinces having Cl/Br molar ratio lower than 650. The apparent increase of Cl/Br molar ratio that correlates with the increasing of the chloride, is probably related with dissolution of the Halite.

Keywords: geothermal fluids, geotectonic units, natural springs, deep wells, mature waters, peripheral waters

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166 Improving Student Learning in a Math Bridge Course through Computer Algebra Systems

Authors: Alejandro Adorjan

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Universities are motivated to understand the factor contributing to low retention of engineering undergraduates. While precollege students for engineering increases, the number of engineering graduates continues to decrease and attrition rates for engineering undergraduates remains high. Calculus 1 (C1) is the entry point of most undergraduate Engineering Science and often a prerequisite for Computing Curricula courses. Mathematics continues to be a major hurdle for engineering students and many students who drop out from engineering cite specifically Calculus as one of the most influential factors in that decision. In this context, creating course activities that increase retention and motivate students to obtain better final results is a challenge. In order to develop several competencies in our students of Software Engineering courses, Calculus 1 at Universidad ORT Uruguay focuses on developing several competencies such as capacity of synthesis, abstraction, and problem solving (based on the ACM/AIS/IEEE). Every semester we try to reflect on our practice and try to answer the following research question: What kind of teaching approach in Calculus 1 can we design to retain students and obtain better results? Since 2010, Universidad ORT Uruguay offers a six-week summer noncompulsory bridge course of preparatory math (to bridge the math gap between high school and university). Last semester was the first time the Department of Mathematics offered the course while students were enrolled in C1. Traditional lectures in this bridge course lead to just transcribe notes from blackboard. Last semester we proposed a Hands On Lab course using Geogebra (interactive geometry and Computer Algebra System (CAS) software) as a Math Driven Development Tool. Students worked in a computer laboratory class and developed most of the tasks and topics in Geogebra. As a result of this approach, several pros and cons were found. It was an excessive amount of weekly hours of mathematics for students and, as the course was non-compulsory; the attendance decreased with time. Nevertheless, this activity succeeds in improving final test results and most students expressed the pleasure of working with this methodology. This teaching technology oriented approach strengthens student math competencies needed for Calculus 1 and improves student performance, engagement, and self-confidence. It is important as a teacher to reflect on our practice, including innovative proposals with the objective of engaging students, increasing retention and obtaining better results. The high degree of motivation and engagement of participants with this methodology exceeded our initial expectations, so we plan to experiment with more groups during the summer so as to validate preliminary results.

Keywords: calculus, engineering education, PreCalculus, Summer Program

Procedia PDF Downloads 272
165 The Two Question Challenge: Embedding the Serious Illness Conversation in Acute Care Workflows

Authors: D. M. Lewis, L. Frisby, U. Stead

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Objective: Many patients are receiving invasive treatments in acute care or are dying in hospital without having had comprehensive goals of care conversations. Some of these treatments may not align with the patient’s wishes, may be futile, and may cause unnecessary suffering. While many staff may recognize the benefits of engaging patients and families in Serious Illness Conversations (a goal of care framework developed by Ariadne Labs in Boston), few staff feel confident and/or competent in having these conversations in acute care. Another barrier to having these conversations may be due to a lack of incorporation in the current workflow. An educational exercise, titled the Two Question Challenge, was initiated on four medical units across two Vancouver Coastal Health (VCH) hospitals in attempt to engage the entire interdisciplinary team in asking patients and families questions around goals of care and to improve the documentation of these expressed wishes and preferences. Methods: Four acute care units across two separate hospitals participated in the Two Question Challenge. On each unit, over the course of two eight-hour shifts, all members of the interdisciplinary team were asked to select at least two questions from a selection of nine goals of care questions. They were asked to pose these questions of a patient or family member throughout their shift and then asked to document their conversations in a centralized Advance Care Planning/Goals of Care discussion record in the patient’s chart. A visual representation of conversation outcomes was created to demonstrate to staff and patients the breadth of conversations that took place throughout the challenge. Staff and patients were interviewed about their experiences throughout the challenge. Two palliative approach leads remained present on the units throughout the challenge to support, guide, or role model these conversations. Results: Across four acute care medical units, 47 interdisciplinary staff participated in the Two Question Challenge, including nursing, allied health, and a physician. A total of 88 questions were asked of patients, or their families around goals of care and 50 newly documented goals of care conversations were charted. Two code statuses were changed as a result of the conversations. Patients voiced an appreciation for these conversations and staff were able to successfully incorporate these questions into their daily care. Conclusion: The Two Question Challenge proved to be an effective way of having teams explore the goals of care of patients and families in an acute care setting. Staff felt that they gained confidence and competence. Both staff and patients found these conversations to be meaningful and impactful and felt they were notably different from their usual interactions. Documentation of these conversations in a centralized location that is easily accessible to all care providers increased significantly. Application of the Two Question Challenge in non-medical units or other care settings, such as long-term care facilities or community health units, should be explored in the future.

Keywords: advance care planning, goals of care, interdisciplinary, palliative approach, serious illness conversations

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164 The Financial Impact of Covid 19 on the Hospitality Industry in New Zealand

Authors: Kay Fielden, Eelin Tan, Lan Nguyen

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In this research project, data was gathered at a Covid 19 Conference held in June 2021 from industry leaders who discussed the impact of the global pandemic on the status of the New Zealand hospitality industry. Panel discussions on financials, human resources, health and safety, and recovery were conducted. The themes explored for the finance panel were customer demographics, hospitality sectors, financial practices, government impact, and cost of compliance. The aim was to see how the hospitality industry has responded to the global pandemic and the steps that have been taken for the industry to recover or sustain their business. The main research question for this qualitative study is: What are the factors that have impacted on finance for the hospitality industry in New Zealand due to Covid 19? For financials, literature has been gathered to study global effects, and this is being compared with the data gathered from the discussion panel through the lens of resilience theory. Resilience theory applied to the hospitality industry suggests that the challenges imposed by Covid 19 have been the catalyst for government initiatives, technical innovation, engaging local communities, and boosting confidence. Transformation arising from these ground shifts have been a move towards sustainability, wellbeing, more awareness of climate change, and community engagement. Initial findings suggest that there has been a shift in customer base that has prompted regional accommodation providers to realign offers and to become more flexible to attract and maintain this realigned customer base. Dynamic pricing structures have been required to meet changing customer demographics. Flexible staffing arrangements include sharing staff between different accommodation providers, owners with multiple properties adopting different staffing arrangements, maintaining a good working relationship with the bank, and conserving cash. Uncertain times necessitate changing revenue strategies to cope with external factors. Financial support offered by the government has cushioned the financial downturn for many in the hospitality industry, and managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) arrangements have offered immediate financial relief for those hotels involved. However, there is concern over the long-term effects. Compliance with mandated health and safety requirements has meant that the hospitality industry has streamlined its approach to meeting those requirements and has invested in customer relations to keep paying customers informed of the health measures in place. Initial findings from this study lie within the resilience theory framework and are consistent with findings from the literature.

Keywords: global pandemic, hospitality industry, new Zealand, resilience

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163 Providing Health Promotion Information by Digital Animation to International Visitors in Japan: A Factorial Design View of Nurses

Authors: Mariko Nishikawa, Masaaki Yamanaka, Ayami Kondo

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Background: International visitors to Japan are at a risk of travel-related illnesses or injury that could result in hospitalization in a country where the language and customs are unique. Over twelve million international visitors came to Japan in 2015, and more are expected leading up to the Tokyo Olympics. One aspect of this is the potentially greater demand on healthcare services by foreign visitors. Nurses who take care of them have anxieties and concerns of their knowledge of the Japanese health system. Objectives: An effective distribution of travel-health information is vital for facilitating care for international visitors. Our research investigates whether a four-minute digital animation (Mari Info Japan), designed and developed by the authors and applied to a survey of 513 nurses who take care of foreigners daily, could clarify travel health procedures, reduce anxieties, while making it enjoyable to learn. Methodology: Respondents to a survey were divided into two groups. The intervention group watched Mari Info Japan. The control group read a standard guidebook. The participants were requested to fill a two-page questionnaire called Mari Meter-X, STAI-Y in English and mark a face scale, before and after the interventions. The questions dealt with knowledge of health promotion, the Japanese healthcare system, cultural concerns, anxieties, and attitudes in Japan. Data were collected from an intervention group (n=83) and control group (n=83) of nurses in a hospital, Japan for foreigners from February to March, 2016. We analyzed the data using Text Mining Studio for open-ended questions and JMP for statistical significance. Results: We found that the intervention group displayed more confidence and less anxiety to take care of foreign patients compared to the control group. The intervention group indicated a greater comfort after watching the animation. However, both groups were most likely to be concerned about language, the cost of medical expenses, informed consent, and choice of hospital. Conclusions: From the viewpoint of nurses, the provision of travel-health information by digital animation to international visitors to Japan was more effective than traditional methods as it helped them be better prepared to treat travel-related diseases and injury among international visitors. This study was registered number UMIN000020867. Funding: Grant–in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research 2010-2012 & 2014-16, Japanese Government.

Keywords: digital animation, health promotion, international visitor, Japan, nurse

Procedia PDF Downloads 297
162 Predictors for Success in Methadone Maintenance Treatment Clinic: 24 Years of Experience

Authors: Einat E. Peles, Shaul Schreiber, Miriam Adelson

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Background: Since established more than 50 years ago, methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) is the most effective treatment for opioid addiction, a chronic relapsing brain disorder that became an epidemic in western societies. Treatment includes daily individual optimal medication methadone dose (a long acting mu opioid receptor full agonist), accompanied with psychosocial therapy. It is well established that the longer retention in treatment the better outcome and survival occur. It reduces the likelihood to infectious diseases and overdose death that associated with drug injecting, enhanced social rehabilitation and eliminate criminal activity, and lead to healthy productive life. Aim: To evaluate predictors for long term retention in treatment we analyzed our prospective follow up of a major MMT clinic affiliated to a big tertiary medical center. Population Methods: Between June 25, 1993, and June 24, 2016, all 889 patients ( ≥ 18y) who ever admitted to the clinic were prospectively followed-up until May 2017. Duration in treatment from the first admission until the patient quit treatment or until the end of follow-up (24 years) was taken for calculating cumulative retention in treatment using survival analyses (Kaplan Meier) with log-rank and Cox regression for multivariate analyses. Results: Of the 889 patients, 25.2% were females who admitted to treatment at younger age (35.0 ± 7.9 vs. 40.6 ± 9.8, p < .0005), but started opioid usage at same age (22.3 ± 6.9). In addition to opioid use, on admission to MMT 58.5% had positive urine for benzodiazepines, 25% to cocaine, 12.4% to cannabis and 6.9% to amphetamines. Hepatitis C antibody tested positive in 55%, and HIV in 7.8% of the patients and 40%. Of all patients, 75.7% stayed at least one year in treatment, and of them, 67.7% stopped opioid usage (based on urine tests), and a net reduction observed in all other substance abuse (proportion of those who stopped minus proportion of those who have started). Long term retention up to 24 years was 8.0 years (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 7.4-8.6). Predictors for longer retention in treatment (Cox regression) were being older on admission ( ≥ 30y) Odds Ratio (OR) =1.4 (CI 1.1-1.8), not abusing opioids after one year OR=1.8 (CI 1.5-2.1), not abusing benzodiazepine after one year OR=1.7 (CI 1.4-2.1) and treating with methadone dose ≥ 100mg/day OR =1.8 (CI 1.5-2.3). Conclusions: Treating and following patients over 24 years indicate success of two main outcomes, high rate of retention after one year (75.7%) and high proportion of opiate abuse cessation (67.7%). As expected, longer cumulative retention was associated with patients treated with high adequate methadone dose that successfully result in opioid cessation. Based on these findings, in order to reduce morbidity and mortality, we find the establishment of more MMT clinics within a general hospital, a most urgent necessity.

Keywords: methadone maintenance treatment, epidemic, opioids, retention

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
161 A Meta-Analysis of School-Based Suicide Prevention for Adolescents and Meta-Regressions of Contextual and Intervention Factors

Authors: E. H. Walsh, J. McMahon, M. P. Herring

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Post-primary school-based suicide prevention (PSSP) is a valuable avenue to reduce suicidal behaviours in adolescents. The aims of this meta-analysis and meta-regression were 1) to quantify the effect of PSSP interventions on adolescent suicide ideation (SI) and suicide attempts (SA), and 2) to explore how intervention effects may vary based on important contextual and intervention factors. This study provides further support to the benefits of PSSP by demonstrating lower suicide outcomes in over 30,000 adolescents following PSSP and mental health interventions and tentatively suggests that intervention effectiveness may potentially vary based on intervention factors. The protocol for this study is registered on PROSPERO (ID=CRD42020168883). Population, intervention, comparison, outcomes, and study design (PICOs) defined eligible studies as cluster randomised studies (n=12) containing PSSP and measuring suicide outcomes. Aggregate electronic database EBSCO host, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were searched. Cochrane bias tools for cluster randomised studies demonstrated that half of the studies were rated as low risk of bias. The Egger’s Regression Test adapted for multi-level modelling indicated that publication bias was not an issue (all ps > .05). Crude and corresponding adjusted pooled log odds ratios (OR) were computed using the Metafor package in R, yielding 12 SA and 19 SI effects. Multi-level random-effects models accounting for dependencies of effects from the same study revealed that in crude models, compared to controls, interventions were significantly associated with 13% (OR=0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI), [0.78,0.96], Q18 =15.41, p=0.63) and 34% (OR=0.66, 95%CI [0.47,0.91], Q10=16.31, p=0.13) lower odds of SI and SA, respectively. Adjusted models showed similar odds reductions of 15% (OR=0.85, 95%CI[0.75,0.95], Q18=10.04, p=0.93) and 28% (OR=0.72, 95%CI[0.59,0.87], Q10=10.46, p=0.49) for SI and SA, respectively. Within-cluster heterogeneity ranged from no heterogeneity to low heterogeneity for SA across crude and adjusted models (0-9%). No heterogeneity was identified for SI across crude and adjusted models (0%). Pre-specified univariate moderator analyses were not significant for SA (all ps < 0.05). Variations in average pooled SA odds reductions across categories of various intervention characteristics were observed (all ps < 0.05), which preliminarily suggests that the effectiveness of interventions may potentially vary across intervention factors. These findings have practical implications for researchers, clinicians, educators, and decision-makers. Further investigation of important logical, theoretical, and empirical moderators on PSSP intervention effectiveness is recommended to establish how and when PSSP interventions best reduce adolescent suicidal behaviour.

Keywords: adolescents, contextual factors, post-primary school-based suicide prevention, suicide ideation, suicide attempts

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160 Electrochemical Activity of NiCo-GDC Cermet Anode for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Operated in Methane

Authors: Kamolvara Sirisuksakulchai, Soamwadee Chaianansutcharit, Kazunori Sato

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Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) have been considered as one of the most efficient large unit power generators for household and industrial applications. The efficiency of an electronic cell depends mainly on the electrochemical reactions in the anode. The development of anode materials has been intensely studied to achieve higher kinetic rates of redox reactions and lower internal resistance. Recent studies have introduced an efficient cermet (ceramic-metallic) material for its ability in fuel oxidation and oxide conduction. This could expand the reactive site, also known as the triple-phase boundary (TPB), thus increasing the overall performance. In this study, a bimetallic catalyst Ni₀.₇₅Co₀.₂₅Oₓ was combined with Gd₀.₁Ce₀.₉O₁.₉₅ (GDC) to be used as a cermet anode (NiCo-GDC) for an anode-supported type SOFC. The synthesis of Ni₀.₇₅Co₀.₂₅Oₓ was carried out by ball milling NiO and Co3O4 powders in ethanol and calcined at 1000 °C. The Gd₀.₁Ce₀.₉O₁.₉₅ was prepared by a urea co-precipitation method. Precursors of Gd(NO₃)₃·6H₂O and Ce(NO₃)₃·6H₂O were dissolved in distilled water with the addition of urea and were heated subsequently. The heated mixture product was filtered and rinsed thoroughly, then dried and calcined at 800 °C and 1500 °C, respectively. The two powders were combined followed by pelletization and sintering at 1100 °C to form an anode support layer. The fabrications of an electrolyte layer and cathode layer were conducted. The electrochemical performance in H₂ was measured from 800 °C to 600 °C while for CH₄ was from 750 °C to 600 °C. The maximum power density at 750 °C in H₂ was 13% higher than in CH₄. The difference in performance was due to higher polarization resistances confirmed by the impedance spectra. According to the standard enthalpy, the dissociation energy of C-H bonds in CH₄ is slightly higher than the H-H bond H₂. The dissociation of CH₄ could be the cause of resistance within the anode material. The results from lower temperatures showed a descending trend of power density in relevance to the increased polarization resistance. This was due to lowering conductivity when the temperature decreases. The long-term stability was measured at 750 °C in CH₄ monitoring at 12-hour intervals. The maximum power density tends to increase gradually with time while the resistances were maintained. This suggests the enhanced stability from charge transfer activities in doped ceria due to the transition of Ce⁴⁺ ↔ Ce³⁺ at low oxygen partial pressure and high-temperature atmosphere. However, the power density started to drop after 60 h, and the cell potential also dropped from 0.3249 V to 0.2850 V. These phenomena was confirmed by a shifted impedance spectra indicating a higher ohmic resistance. The observation by FESEM and EDX-mapping suggests the degradation due to mass transport of ions in the electrolyte while the anode microstructure was still maintained. In summary, the electrochemical test and stability test for 60 h was achieved by NiCo-GDC cermet anode. Coke deposition was not detected after operation in CH₄, hence this confirms the superior properties of the bimetallic cermet anode over typical Ni-GDC.

Keywords: bimetallic catalyst, ceria-based SOFCs, methane oxidation, solid oxide fuel cell

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159 Wildland Fire in Terai Arc Landscape of Lesser Himalayas Threatning the Tiger Habitat

Authors: Amit Kumar Verma

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The present study deals with fire prediction model in Terai Arc Landscape, one of the most dramatic ecosystems in Asia where large, wide-ranging species such as tiger, rhinos, and elephant will thrive while bringing economic benefits to the local people. Forest fires cause huge economic and ecological losses and release considerable quantities of carbon into the air and is an important factor inflating the global burden of carbon emissions. Forest fire is an important factor of behavioral cum ecological habit of tiger in wild. Post fire changes i.e. micro and macro habitat directly affect the tiger habitat or land. Vulnerability of fire depicts the changes in microhabitat (humus, soil profile, litter, vegetation, grassland ecosystem). Microorganism like spider, annelids, arthropods and other favorable microorganism directly affect by the forest fire and indirectly these entire microorganisms are responsible for the development of tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat. On the other hand, fire brings depletion in prey species and negative movement of tiger from wild to human- dominated areas, which may leads the conflict i.e. dangerous for both tiger & human beings. Early forest fire prediction through mapping the risk zones can help minimize the fire frequency and manage forest fires thereby minimizing losses. Satellite data plays a vital role in identifying and mapping forest fire and recording the frequency with which different vegetation types are affected. Thematic hazard maps have been generated by using IDW technique. A prediction model for fire occurrence is developed for TAL. The fire occurrence records were collected from state forest department from 2000 to 2014. Disciminant function models was used for developing a prediction model for forest fires in TAL, random points for non-occurrence of fire have been generated. Based on the attributes of points of occurrence and non-occurrence, the model developed predicts the fire occurrence. The map of predicted probabilities classified the study area into five classes very high (12.94%), high (23.63%), moderate (25.87%), low(27.46%) and no fire (10.1%) based upon the intensity of hazard. model is able to classify 78.73 percent of points correctly and hence can be used for the purpose with confidence. Overall, also the model works correctly with almost 69% of points. This study exemplifies the usefulness of prediction model of forest fire and offers a more effective way for management of forest fire. Overall, this study depicts the model for conservation of tiger’s natural habitat and forest conservation which is beneficial for the wild and human beings for future prospective.

Keywords: fire prediction model, forest fire hazard, GIS, landsat, MODIS, TAL

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158 Self-Care and Emotional Wellbeing of Nurses Using Playback Theatre and Expressive Arts

Authors: Radhika Jain

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The nursing community in India face unique challenges ranging from lack of adequate career progression, low social status attached to the profession, poor nurse-to-patient ratio leading to heavy workload resulting in stress and burnout, lack of general recognition and the responsibility of often having to deal with the ire of the patients and their families. This study explores how a combination of Playback Theatre and Expressive Arts could be used as a very powerful tool to understand the concerns, and consequently as a self-care tool to bring about the sense of well-being and emotional awareness for the nurses. For the purpose of this study, Playback Theatre was used as an entry tool to understand the thoughts, feelings and concerns. Playback theatre is a unique improvisational form of theatre developed by Jonathan Fox and Jo Salas in 1975, in which audience share their own stories from their lives and the performers play them back through a range of improv techniques such as metaphor, poetry, music and movement. Playback Theatre helped in first warming them up to the idea of sharing and then gave them the confidence of a safe space to collectively go deeper into their emotional experiences. As the next step, structured sessions of Expressive Arts were conducted with the same set of nurses, for them to work on the issues and concerns they have (and which they shared during the Playback performance). These sessions were to enable longer engagements as many of the concerns expressed were related to perceptions and beliefs that have been ingrained over a period of time and hence it needs a longer engagement to be worked on in detail. The Expressive Art sessions helped in this regard. Expressive arts therapy combines psychology and the creative process to promote emotional growth and healing. The study was conducted at two places: one a geriatric centre and the other, a palliative care centre. The study revealed that concerns and challenges would not be identical across the nursing community or across similar types of health care organizations but would be specific to each organization or centre as the circumstances and set-up at each place would be different. At the geriatric centre, stress and burnout emerged as the main concerns while at the palliative care centre, the main concern that came up was around the difficulty the nurses faced in expressing emotions and in communicating their feelings. The objective analysis of the results of the study indicated how longer-term engagements using Expressive Arts as the modality helped the nurses have better awareness of their emotions and helped them develop tools of self-care tools while also tapping into their emotions to express and experience. The process of eliciting the main concerns from the nurses using a Playback Theatre performance and then following that with subsequent sessions of expressive arts helped the nurses in the way nurses approached their job and the reduced level of overwhelm that they felt.

Keywords: palliative care, nurses, self-care, expressive arts, playback theatre

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157 The Immunology Evolutionary Relationship between Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription Genes from Three Different Shrimp Species in Response to White Spot Syndrome Virus Infection

Authors: T. C. C. Soo, S. Bhassu

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Unlike the common presence of both innate and adaptive immunity in vertebrates, crustaceans, in particular, shrimps, have been discovered to possess only innate immunity. This further emphasizes the importance of innate immunity within shrimps in pathogenic resistance. Under the study of pathogenic immune challenge, different shrimp species actually exhibit varying degrees of immune resistance towards the same pathogen. Furthermore, even within the same shrimp species, different batches of challenged shrimps can have different strengths of immune defence. Several important pathways are activated within shrimps during pathogenic infection. One of them is JAK-STAT pathway that is activated during bacterial, viral and fungal infections by which STAT(Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription) gene is the core element of the pathway. Based on theory of Central Dogma, the genomic information is transmitted in the order of DNA, RNA and protein. This study is focused in uncovering the important evolutionary patterns present within the DNA (non-coding region) and RNA (coding region). The three shrimp species involved are Macrobrachium rosenbergii, Penaeus monodon and Litopenaeus vannamei which all possess commercial significance. The shrimp species were challenged with a famous penaeid shrimp virus called white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) which can cause serious lethality. Tissue samples were collected during time intervals of 0h, 3h, 6h, 12h, 24h, 36h and 48h. The DNA and RNA samples were then extracted using conventional kits from the hepatopancreas tissue samples. PCR technique together with designed STAT gene conserved primers were utilized for identification of the STAT coding sequences using RNA-converted cDNA samples and subsequent characterization using various bioinformatics approaches including Ramachandran plot, ProtParam and SWISS-MODEL. The varying levels of immune STAT gene activation for the three shrimp species during WSSV infection were confirmed using qRT-PCR technique. For one sample, three biological replicates with three technical replicates each were used for qRT-PCR. On the other hand, DNA samples were important for uncovering the structural variations within the genomic region of STAT gene which would greatly assist in understanding the STAT protein functional variations. The partially-overlapping primers technique was used for the genomic region sequencing. The evolutionary inferences and event predictions were then conducted through the Bayesian Inference method using all the acquired coding and non-coding sequences. This was supplemented by the construction of conventional phylogenetic trees using Maximum likelihood method. The results showed that adaptive evolution caused STAT gene sequence mutations between different shrimp species which led to evolutionary divergence event. Subsequently, the divergent sites were correlated to the differing expressions of STAT gene. Ultimately, this study assists in knowing the shrimp species innate immune variability and selection of disease resistant shrimps for breeding purpose. The deeper understanding of STAT gene evolution from the perspective of both purifying and adaptive approaches not only can provide better immunological insight among shrimp species, but also can be used as a good reference for immunological studies in humans or other model organisms.

Keywords: gene evolution, JAK-STAT pathway, immunology, STAT gene

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156 Solid State Drive End to End Reliability Prediction, Characterization and Control

Authors: Mohd Azman Abdul Latif, Erwan Basiron

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A flaw or drift from expected operational performance in one component (NAND, PMIC, controller, DRAM, etc.) may affect the reliability of the entire Solid State Drive (SSD) system. Therefore, it is important to ensure the required quality of each individual component through qualification testing specified using standards or user requirements. Qualification testing is time-consuming and comes at a substantial cost for product manufacturers. A highly technical team, from all the eminent stakeholders is embarking on reliability prediction from beginning of new product development, identify critical to reliability parameters, perform full-blown characterization to embed margin into product reliability and establish control to ensure the product reliability is sustainable in the mass production. The paper will discuss a comprehensive development framework, comprehending SSD end to end from design to assembly, in-line inspection, in-line testing and will be able to predict and to validate the product reliability at the early stage of new product development. During the design stage, the SSD will go through intense reliability margin investigation with focus on assembly process attributes, process equipment control, in-process metrology and also comprehending forward looking product roadmap. Once these pillars are completed, the next step is to perform process characterization and build up reliability prediction modeling. Next, for the design validation process, the reliability prediction specifically solder joint simulator will be established. The SSD will be stratified into Non-Operating and Operating tests with focus on solder joint reliability and connectivity/component latent failures by prevention through design intervention and containment through Temperature Cycle Test (TCT). Some of the SSDs will be subjected to the physical solder joint analysis called Dye and Pry (DP) and Cross Section analysis. The result will be feedbacked to the simulation team for any corrective actions required to further improve the design. Once the SSD is validated and is proven working, it will be subjected to implementation of the monitor phase whereby Design for Assembly (DFA) rules will be updated. At this stage, the design change, process and equipment parameters are in control. Predictable product reliability at early product development will enable on-time sample qualification delivery to customer and will optimize product development validation, effective development resource and will avoid forced late investment to bandage the end-of-life product failures. Understanding the critical to reliability parameters earlier will allow focus on increasing the product margin that will increase customer confidence to product reliability.

Keywords: e2e reliability prediction, SSD, TCT, solder joint reliability, NUDD, connectivity issues, qualifications, characterization and control

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155 Challenges of Strategies for Improving Sustainability in Urban Historical Context in Developing Countries: The Case of Shiraz Bein Al-Haramein

Authors: Amir Hossein Ashari, Sedighe Erfan Manesh

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One of the problems in developing countries is renovating the historical context and inducing behaviors appropriate to modern life to such a context. This study was conducted using field and library methods in 2012. Similar cases carried out in Iran and developing countries were compared to unveil the strengths and weaknesses of these projects. At present, in the historical context of Shiraz, the distance between two religious shrines of Shahcheragh (Ahmad ibn Musa) and Astaneh (Sayed Alaa al-Din Hossein), which are significant places in religious, cultural, social, and economic terms, is an area full of historic places called Bein Al-Haramein. Unfortunately, some of these places have been worn out and are not appropriate for common uses. The basic strategy of Bein Al-Haramein was to improve social development of Shiraz, to enhance the vitality and dynamism of the historical context of Bein Al-Haramein and to create tourist attractions in order to boost the city's economic and social stability. To this end, the project includes the huge Bein Al-Haramein Commercial Complex which is under construction now. To construct the complex, officials have decided to demolish places of historical value which can lead to irreparable consequences. Iranian urban design has always been based on three elements of bazaars, mosques and government facilities with bazaars being the organic connector of the other elements. Therefore, the best strategy in the above case is to provide for a commercial connection between the two poles. Although this strategy is included in the project, lack of attention to renovation principles in this area and complete destruction of the context will lead to its irreversible damage and will destroy its cultural and historical identity. In urban planning of this project, some important issues have been neglected including: preserving valuable buildings and special old features of the city, rebuilding worn buildings and context to attract trust and confidence of the people, developing new models according to changes, improving the structural position of old context with minimal degradation, attracting partnerships of residents and protecting their rights and finally using potential facilities of the old context. The best strategy for achieving sustainability in Bein Al-Haramein can be the one used in the distance between Santa Maria Novella and Santa Maria Del Fiore churches in historical context where while protecting the historic context and constructions, old buildings were renovated and given different commercial and service uses making them sustainable and dynamic places. Similarly, in Bein Al-Haramein, renovating old constructions and monuments and giving different commercial and other uses to them can help improve the economic and social sustainability of the area.

Keywords: Bein Al-Haramein, sustainability, historical context, historical context

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154 Variations in Breast Aesthetic Reconstruction Rates between Asian and Caucasian Patients Post Mastectomy in a UK Tertiary Breast Referral Centre: A Five-Year Institutional Review

Authors: Wisam Ismail, Chole Wright, Elizabeth Baker, Cathy Tait, Mohamed Salhab, Richard Linforth

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Background: Post-mastectomy breast reconstruction is an important treatment option for women with breast cancer with psychosocial, emotional and quality of life benefits. Despite this, Asian patients are one-fifth as likely as Caucasian patients to undergo reconstruction after mastectomy. Aim: This study aimed to assess the difference in breast reconstruction rates between Asian and Caucasian patients treated at Bradford Teaching Hospitals between May 2011 – December 2015.The long-term goal is to equip healthcare professionals to improve breast cancer treatment outcome by increasing breast reconstruction rates in this sub-population. Methods: All patients undergoing mastectomy were identified using a prospectively collected departmental database. Further data was obtained via retrospective electronic case note review. Bradford city population is about 530.000 by the end of 2015, with 67.44% of the city's population was White ethnic groups and 26.83% Asian Ethnic Groups (UK population consensus). The majority of Asian population speaks Urdu, hence an Urdu speaking breast care nurse was appointed to facilitate communications and deliver a better understanding of the reconstruction options and pathways. Statistical analysis was undertaken using the SAS program. Patients were stratified by age, self-reported ethnicity, axillary surgery and reconstruction. Relative odds were calculated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses with adjustment for known confounders. An Urdu speaking breast care nurse was employed throughout this period to facilitate communication and patient decision making. Results: 506 patients underwent Mastectomy over 5 years. 72 (14%) Asian v. 434 (85%) Caucasian. Overall median age is 64 years (SD1.1). Asian median age is 62 (SD0.9), versus Caucasian 65 (SD1.2). Total axillary clearance rate was 30% (42% Asian v.30% Caucasian). Overall reconstruction rate was 126 patients (28.9%).Only 6 of 72 Asian patients (<1%) underwent breast reconstruction versus 121of 434 Caucasian (28%) (p < 0.04), Odds ratio 0.68, (95% confidence interval 0.57-0.79). Conclusions: There is a significant difference in post-mastectomy reconstruction rates between Asian and Caucasian patients. This difference is likely to be multi-factorial. Higher rates of axillary clearance in Asian patients might suggest later disease presentation and/or higher rates of subsequent adjuvant therapy, both of which, can impact on the suitability of breast reconstruction. Strategies aimed at reducing racial disparities in breast reconstruction should include symptom awareness to enable earlier presentation and facilitated communication to ensure informed decision-making.

Keywords: aesthetic, Asian, breast, reconstruction

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153 The Medical Student Perspective on the Role of Doubt in Medical Education

Authors: Madhavi-Priya Singh, Liam Lowe, Farouk Arnaout, Ludmilla Pillay, Giordan Perez, Luke Mischker, Steve Costa

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Introduction: An Emergency Department consultant identified the failure of medical students to complete the task of clerking a patient in its entirety. As six medical students on our first clinical placement, we recognised our own failure and endeavored to examine why this failure was consistent among all medical students that had been given this task, despite our best motivations as adult learners. Aim: Our aim is to understand and investigate the elements which impeded our ability to learn and perform as medical students in the clinical environment, with reference to the prescribed task. We also aim to generate a discussion around the delivery of medical education with potential solutions to these barriers. Methods: Six medical students gathered together to have a comprehensive reflective discussion to identify possible factors leading to the failure of the task. First, we thoroughly analysed the delivery of the instructions with reference to the literature to identify potential flaws. We then examined personal, social, ethical, and cultural factors which may have impacted our ability to complete the task in its entirety. Results: Through collation of our shared experiences, with support from discussion in the field of medical education and ethics, we identified two major areas that impacted our ability to complete the set task. First, we experienced an ethical conflict where we believed the inconvenience and potential harm inflicted on patients did not justify the positive impact the patient interaction would have on our medical learning. Second, we identified a lack of confidence stemming from multiple factors, including the conflict between preclinical and clinical learning, perceptions of perfectionism in the culture of medicine, and the influence of upward social comparison. Discussion: After discussions, we found that the various factors we identified exacerbated the fears and doubts we already had about our own abilities and that of the medical education system. This doubt led us to avoid completing certain aspects of the tasks that were prescribed and further reinforced our vulnerability and perceived incompetence. Exploration of philosophical theories identified the importance of the role of doubt in education. We propose the need for further discussion around incorporating both pedagogic and andragogic teaching styles in clinical medical education and the acceptance of doubt as a driver of our learning. Conclusion: Doubt will continue to permeate our thoughts and actions no matter what. The moral or psychological distress that arises from this is the key motivating factor for our avoidance of tasks. If we accept this doubt and education embraces this doubt, it will no longer linger in the shadows as a negative and restrictive emotion but fuel a brighter dialogue and positive learning experience, ultimately assisting us in achieving our full potential.

Keywords: ethics, medical student, doubt, medical education, faith

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