Search results for: fuzzy model identification

Authors: Shabnam Dadparvar, Laijin Shen

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This paper focuses on China’s policy in the Middle East and the rivalry with the U.S. The question is that what are the main factors on China’s Middle East policy and its competition with the U.S? The hypothesis regards to three effective factors: 'China’s energy dependency' on the Middle East, 'economy' and support for 'stability' in the Middle East. What is important in China’s competition with the U.S regarding to its Middle East policy is the substantial difference in ways of treating the countries of the region; China is committed to Westphalia model based on non-interference in internal affairs of the countries and respect the sovereignty of the governments. However, after 9/11, the U.S is seeking a balance between stability and change through intervention in the international affairs and in some cases is looking for a regime change. From the other hand, China, due to its dependency on the region’s energy welcomes America’s military presence in the region for providing stability. The authors by using a descriptive analytical method try to explain the situation of rivalry between China and the United States in Middle East. China is an 'emerging power' with high economic growth and in demand of more energy supply. The problem is that a rising power in the region is often a source of concern for hegemony.

Keywords: China's foreign policy, energy, hegemony, the Middle East

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Authors: Yiming Jin, Ping Dong

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The primary resonance of a pipeline close to a plane boundary is investigated in this paper. Based on classic Van der Pol equation and added a nonlinear item, a new wake oscillator model is proposed to predict the vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a circular cylinder close to a plane boundary. Then, with the multi-scale method, the approximate solution for the case of the primary resonance is obtained. Besides, to study the characteristic of the primary resonance, the effects of the mass ration, frequency, damp ratio and gap ratio on the frequency-response curves of the pipeline are analysed. On the whole, the trend of the numerical results match up with that of the experimental data well and the mass ration, frequency, damp ratio and gap ratio play an important role in the vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a circular cylinder close to a plane boundary, especially, the smaller is the mass ratio, the larger impact the gap ratio has on the frequency-response curves of the primary resonance.

Keywords: primary resonance, gap ratio, vortex-induced vibration, multi-scale method

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Authors: Ana Paula P. dos Santos, Claudia R. Andrade, Edson L. Zaparoli

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Pressure loss in ductworks is an important factor to be considered in design of engineering systems such as power-plants, refineries, HVAC systems to reduce energy costs. Ductwork can be composed by straight ducts and different types of fittings (elbows, transitions, converging and diverging tees and wyes). Duct fittings are significant sources of pressure loss in fluid distribution systems. Fitting losses can be even more significant than equipment components such as coils, filters, and dampers. At the present work, a conventional 90o round elbow under turbulent incompressible airflow is studied. Mass, momentum, and k-e turbulence model equations are solved employing the finite volume method. The SIMPLE algorithm is used for the pressure-velocity coupling. In order to validate the numerical tool, the elbow pressure loss coefficient is determined using the same conditions to compare with ASHRAE database. Furthermore, the effect of Reynolds number variation on the elbow pressure loss coefficient is investigated. These results can be useful to perform better preliminary design of air distribution ductworks in air conditioning systems.

Keywords: duct fitting, pressure loss, elbow, thermodynamics

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Authors: A. Gherbi, L. Dahmani, A. Boudjemia

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This paper presents the Finite Element Method (FEM) for analyzing the failure pattern of rectangular slab with various edge conditions. Non-Linear static analysis is carried out using ANSYS 15 Software. Using SOLID65 solid elements, the compressive crushing of concrete is facilitated using plasticity algorithm, while the concrete cracking in tension zone is accommodated by the nonlinear material model. Smeared reinforcement is used and introduced as a percentage of steel embedded in concrete slab. The behavior of the analyzed concrete slab has been observed in terms of the crack pattern and displacement for various loading and boundary conditions. The finite element results are also compared with the experimental data. One of the other objectives of the present study is to show how similar the crack path found by ANSYS program to those observed for the yield line analysis. The smeared reinforcement method is found to be more practical especially for the layered elements like concrete slabs. The value of this method is that it does not require explicit modeling of the rebar, and thus a much coarser mesh can be defined.

Keywords: ANSYS, cracking pattern, displacements, reinforced concrete slab, smeared reinforcements

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Authors: Mallikarjuna Rao Gundavarapu, Ch. Mallikarjuna Rao, K. Anuradha Bai

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Real Time Video Tracking is a challenging task for computing professionals. The performance of video tracking techniques is greatly affected by background detection and elimination process. Local regions of the image frame contain vital information of background and foreground. However, pixel-level processing of local regions consumes a good amount of computational time and memory space by traditional approaches. In our approach we have explored the concurrent computational ability of General Purpose Graphic Processing Units (GPGPU) to address this problem. The Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) with adaptive weighted kernels is used for detecting the background. The weights of the kernel are influenced by local regions and are updated by inter-frame variations of these corresponding regions. The proposed system has been tested with GPU devices such as GeForce GTX 280, GeForce GTX 280 and Quadro K2000. The results are encouraging with maximum speed up 10X compared to sequential approach.

Keywords: connected components, embrace threads, local weighted kernel, structuring elements

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Authors: Maha Shamseddine, Amjad Nusayr, Wassim Itani

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In this paper, we present a Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) model for controlling the privacy enforcement mechanisms applied on user data when stored and processed in Cloud data centers. The proposed architecture consists of establishing user configurable ‘sticky’ policies on the Graphical User Interface (GUI) data-bound components during the application development phase to specify the details of privacy enforcement on the contents of these components. Various privacy classification classes on the data components are formally defined to give the user full control on the degree and scope of privacy enforcement including the type of execution containers to process the data in the Cloud. This not only enhances the privacy-awareness of the developed Cloud services, but also results in major savings in performance and energy efficiency due to the fact that the privacy mechanisms are solely applied on sensitive data units and not on all the user content. The proposed design is implemented in a real PaaS cloud computing environment on the Microsoft Azure platform.

Keywords: privacy enforcement, platform-as-a-service privacy awareness, cloud computing privacy

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Authors: Jinkoo Kim, Hyungoo Kang, Hyungjun Shin

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In this study, a hybrid energy dissipation device is developed by combining a steel slit plate and friction pads to be used for seismic retrofit of structures, and its effectiveness is investigated by comparing the life cycle costs of the structure before and after the retrofit. The seismic energy dissipation capability of the dampers is confirmed by cyclic loading tests. The probabilities of reaching various damage states are obtained by fragility analysis, and the life cycle costs of the model structures are computed using the PACT (Performance Assessment Calculation Tool) program based on FEMA P-58 methodology. The fragility analysis shows that the probabilities of reaching limit states are minimized by the seismic retrofit with hybrid dampers and increasing column size. The seismic retrofit with increasing column size and hybrid dampers results in the lowest repair cost and shortest repair time.

Keywords: slit dampers, friction dampers, seismic retrofit, life cycle cost, FEMA P-58, PACT

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Authors: Nurhak Altın, Ayhan Kucukmanisa, Oguzhan Urhan

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It is important that highways are in good condition for traffic safety. Road crashes (road cracks, erosion of lane markings, etc.) can cause accidents by affecting driving. Image processing based methods for detecting road cracks are available in the literature. In this paper, a deep learning based road crack detection approach is proposed. YOLO (You Look Only Once) is adopted as core component of the road crack detection approach presented. The YOLO network structure, which is developed for object detection, is trained with road crack images as a new class that is not previously used in YOLO. The performance of the proposed method is compared using different training methods: using randomly generated weights and training their own pre-trained weights (transfer learning). A similar training approach is applied to the simplified version of the YOLO network model (tiny yolo) and the results of the performance are examined. The developed system is able to process 8 fps on NVIDIA Jetson TX1 development kit.

Keywords: deep learning, embedded platform, real-time processing, road crack detection

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Authors: Wheyming Song, Ssu-Ping Lin

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The primary advantage of package-on-package (PoP) packaging is that since it has less volume, it weighs less. But this is also related to its principal drawback, which is warpage. This research investigates how PoP package warpage patterns are affected by assembling process parameters, including substrate temperature, injection speed, injection temperature, and compound forces. We also investigate how warpage patterns are affected by the location of the silicon chip. The methodologies used in this research are design of experiment and warpage simulation via ANSYS. We propose a regression model to predict the warpage value as a function of substrate temperature, injection speed, injection temperature, and compound forces. Our results show that interaction effects exist between substrate temperature and compound forces and between injection speed and injection temperature. Therefore, determining the optimal values for substrate temperature, compound forces, injection speed, and injection temperature cannot be done individually. Also, our results show that the warpage patterns based on the location of silicon chips can be classified into 11 groups, with the largest warpage occurring at the left-most and right-most sides.

Keywords: package-on-package, warpage, design of experiment, simulation

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Authors: Fahad Javed, Tasneem Akhter, Maria Zafar, Adnan Shafique

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Evaluation and quantification of techniques is critical element of research and development of technology. Simulations and models play an important role in providing the tools for such assessments. When we look at technologies which impact or is dependent on an average Joe consumer then modeling the socio-economic and psychological aspects of the consumer also gain an importance. For feed in tariff for home consumers which is being deployed for average consumer may force many consumers to be adapters of the technology. Understanding how consumers will adapt this technologies thus hold as much significance as evaluating how the techniques would work in consumer agnostic scenarios. In this paper we first build the case for simulators which accommodate socio-economic realities of the consumers to evaluate smart grid technologies, provide a glossary of data that can aid in this effort and present an abstract model to capture and simulate consumers' adaptation and behavioral response to smart grid technologies. We provide a case study to express the power of such simulators.

Keywords: smart grids, simulation, socio-economic parameters, feed in tariff (FiT), forecasting

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Authors: Josua K. Junias, Fillemon N. Nangolo, Petrina T. Johaness

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The deterioration of pavement can lead to the formation of potholes, which cause the wheels of a vehicle to experience unusual and uneven movement. In addition, improper loading practices of heavy vehicles can result in dynamic loading of the pavement due to the vehicle's response to the irregular movement caused by the potholes. Previous studies have only focused on the effects of either the road's uneven surface or the asymmetrical loading of the vehicle, but not both. This study aimed to model the pavement's dynamic response to heavy vehicles under different loading configurations and wheel movements. A sample of 225 cases with symmetrical and asymmetrical loading and kinematic movements was used, and 27 validated 3D pavement-vehicle interactive models were developed using SIMWISE 4D. The study found that the type of kinematic movement experienced by the heavy vehicle affects the pavement's dynamic loading, with eccentrically loaded, asymmetrically kinematic heavy vehicles having a statistically significant impact. The study also suggests that the mass of the vehicle's suspension system plays a role in the pavement's dynamic loading.

Keywords: eccentricities, pavement dynamic loading, vertical displacement dynamic response, heavy vehicles

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Authors: Dražen Cvitanić, Biljana Maljković

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This paper presents models for predicting operating speeds on tangent sections of two-lane rural roads developed on continuous speed data. The data corresponds to 20 drivers of different ages and driving experiences, driving their own cars along an 18 km long section of a state road. The data were first used for determination of maximum operating speeds on tangents and their comparison with speeds in the middle of tangents i.e. speed data used in most of operating speed studies. Analysis of continuous speed data indicated that the spot speed data are not reliable indicators of relevant speeds. After that, operating speed models for tangent sections were developed. There was no significant difference between models developed using speed data in the middle of tangent sections and models developed using maximum operating speeds on tangent sections. All developed models have higher coefficient of determination then models developed on spot speed data. Thus, it can be concluded that the method of measuring has more significant impact on the quality of operating speed model than the location of measurement.

Keywords: operating speed, continuous speed data, tangent sections, spot speed, consistency

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Authors: J. Koiso-Kanttila, A. Soikkeli, A. Aapaoja

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Construction in Finland is focusing increasingly on renovation instead of conventional new construction, and this trend will continue to grow in the coming years and decades. Renovation of the large number of suburban residential apartment buildings built in the 1960s and 1970s poses a particular challenge. However, renovation projects are demanding for the residents of these buildings, since they usually are uninitiated in construction issues. On the other hand, renovation projects generally apply the operating models of new construction. Nevertheless, the residents of an existing residential apartment building are some of the best experts on the site. Thus, in this research project we applied a relational model in developing and testing at case sites a planning process that employs interactive planning methods. Current residents, housing company managers, the city zoning manager, the contractor’s and prefab element supplier’s representatives, professional designers and researchers all took part in the planning. The entire interactive planning process progressed phase by phase as the participants’ and designers’ concerted discussion and ideation process, so that the end result was a renovation plan desired by the residents.

Keywords: apartment building renovation, interactive planning, project alliance, user-orientedness

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Authors: Parinaz Arashnia, Farzad Hatami, Saeed Ghaffarpour Jahromi

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Using steel in bridges’ construction because of their desired tensile and compressive strength and light weight especially in large spans was widely popular. Disadvantages of steel such as corrosion, buckling and weaknesses in high temperature and unsuitable weld could be solve with using Fibres Reinforced Polymer (FRP) profiles. The FRP is a remarkable class of composite polymers that can improve structural elements behaviour like corrosion resistance, fir resistance with good proofing and electricity and magnetic non-conductor. Nowadays except FRP reinforced bars and laminates, FRP I-beams are made and studied. The main reason for using FRP profiles is, prevent of corrosion and increase the load carrying capacity and durability, especially in large spans in bridges’ deck. In this paper, behaviour of I-section glass fibres reinforced polymer (GFRP) beam is discussed under point loads with numerical models and results has been compared and verified with experimental tests.

Keywords: glass fibres reinforced polymer, composite, I-section beam, durability, finite element method, numerical model

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Authors: Pradeep Singh, Shrish Verma

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Software fault prediction models are created by using the source code, processed metrics from the same or previous version of code and related fault data. Some company do not store and keep track of all artifacts which are required for software fault prediction. To construct fault prediction model for such company, the training data from the other projects can be one potential solution. The earlier we predict the fault the less cost it requires to correct. The training data consists of metrics data and related fault data at function/module level. This paper investigates fault predictions at early stage using the cross-project data focusing on the design metrics. In this study, empirical analysis is carried out to validate design metrics for cross project fault prediction. The machine learning techniques used for evaluation is Naïve Bayes. The design phase metrics of other projects can be used as initial guideline for the projects where no previous fault data is available. We analyze seven data sets from NASA Metrics Data Program which offer design as well as code metrics. Overall, the results of cross project is comparable to the within company data learning.

Keywords: software metrics, fault prediction, cross project, within project.

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Authors: Mai Ghazal, Ahmed Hammad

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Cost overruns in construction projects are considered as worldwide challenges since the cost performance is one of the main measures of success along with schedule performance. To overcome this problem, studies were conducted to investigate the cost overruns' factors, also projects' historical data were analyzed to extract new and useful knowledge from it. This research is studying and analyzing the effect of some factors causing cost overruns using the historical data from completed construction projects. Then, using these factors to estimate the probability of cost overrun occurrence and predict its percentage for future projects. First, an intensive literature review was done to study all the factors that cause cost overrun in construction projects, then another review was done for previous researcher papers about mining process in dealing with cost overruns. Second, a proposed data warehouse was structured which can be used by organizations to store their future data in a well-organized way so it can be easily analyzed later. Third twelve quantitative factors which their data are frequently available at construction projects were selected to be the analyzed factors and suggested predictors for the proposed model.

Keywords: construction management, construction projects, cost overrun, cost performance, data mining, data warehousing, knowledge discovery, knowledge management

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Authors: Henrik L. Funke, Lars Ulke-Winter, Sandra Gelbrich, Lothar Kroll

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This work reports about an approach for an automatic adaptation of concrete formulations based on genetic algorithms (GA) to optimize a wide range of different fit-functions. In order to achieve the goal, a method was developed which provides a numerical description of a fibre reinforced concrete (FRC) mixture regarding the production technology and the property spectrum of the concrete. In a first step, the FRC mixture with seven fixed components was characterized by varying amounts of the components. For that purpose, ten concrete mixtures were prepared and tested. The testing procedure comprised flow spread, compressive and bending tensile strength. The analysis and approximation of the determined data was carried out by GAs. The aim was to obtain a closed mathematical expression which best describes the given seven-point cloud of FRC by applying a Gene Expression Programming with Free Coefficients (GEP-FC) strategy. The seven-parametric FRC-mixtures model which is generated according to this method correlated well with the measured data. The developed procedure can be used for concrete mixtures finding closed mathematical expressions, which are based on the measured data.

Keywords: concrete design, fibre reinforced concrete, genetic algorithms, GEP-FC

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Authors: Yi Ming Zhang, Zhan Xi Wang, Hang Chen, Gang Wang

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Manual polishing has problems such as high labor intensity, low production efficiency and difficulty in guaranteeing the consistency of polishing quality. It is more and more necessary to replace manual polishing with robot polishing. Polishing force directly affects the quality of polishing, so accurate tracking and control of polishing force is one of the most important conditions for improving the accuracy of robot polishing. The traditional force control strategy is difficult to adapt to the strong coupling of force control and position control during the robot polishing process. Therefore, based on the analysis of force-based impedance control and position-based impedance control, this paper proposed a new type of adaptive controller. Based on force feedback control of active compliance control, the controller can adaptively estimate the stiffness and position of the external environment and eliminate the steady-state force error produced by traditional impedance control. The simulation results of the model shows that the adaptive controller has good adaptability to changing environmental positions and environmental stiffness, and can accurately track and control polishing force.

Keywords: robot polishing, force feedback, impedance control, adaptive control

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Authors: A. Abdikian

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Propagation of nonlinear acoustic wave in dense electron-positron (e-p) plasmas in the presence of an external magnetic field and stationary ions (to neutralize the plasma background) is studied. By means of the quantum hydrodynamics model and applying the reductive perturbation method, the Zakharov-Kuznetsov equation is derived. Using the bifurcation theory of planar dynamical systems, the compressive structure of electrostatic solitary wave and periodic travelling waves is found. The numerical results show how the ion density ratio, the ion cyclotron frequency, and the direction cosines of the wave vector affect the nonlinear electrostatic travelling waves. The obtained results may be useful to better understand the obliquely nonlinear electrostatic travelling wave of small amplitude localized structures in dense magnetized quantum e-p plasmas and may be applicable to study the particle and energy transport mechanism in compact stars such as the interior of massive white dwarfs etc.

Keywords: bifurcation theory, phase portrait, magnetized electron-positron plasma, the Zakharov-Kuznetsov equation

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Authors: Alpesh Adeshara, Rajendrasinh Jadeja, Praghnesh Bhatt

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Implementation of advanced technologies requires sophisticated instruments that deal with the operation, control, restoration and protection of rapidly growing power system network under normal and abnormal conditions. Presently, the applications of Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) are widely found in real time operation, monitoring, controlling and analysis of power system network as it eliminates the various limitations of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA) conventionally used in power system. The use of PMU data is very rapidly increasing its importance for online and offline analysis. Wide Area Measurement System (WAMS) is developed as new technology by use of multiple PMUs in power system. The present paper proposes a model of MATLAB based PMU using Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) algorithm and evaluation of its operation under different contingencies. In this paper, PMU based two bus system having WAMS network is presented as a case study.

Keywords: GPS global positioning system, PMU phasor measurement system, WAMS wide area monitoring system, DFT, PDC

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Authors: Paiwan Buachan, Maneekarn Namsa-Aid, Suchada Jongrungruangchok, Foengchat Jarintanan, Wanlaya Uthaisang-Tanechpongtamb

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Lung cancer or pulmonary carcinoma is the uncontrolled growth of abnormal cells in one or both of the lungs. These abnormal cells can spread to other organs of the body through lymphatic system or bloodstream which is called metastatic stage that leading cause of cancer death. Terrein (C₈H₁₀O₃; MW= 154.06 kDa) is a secondary bioactive fungal metabolite, which was isolated from the Aspergillus terreus. In this study, we investigated the effects of terrein on the inhibition of human lung cancer cell proliferation and metastasis. The A549 human non-small cell lung cancer cell line was used as a model. Terrein significantly inhibited lung cancer cell proliferation measuring by a colorimetric MTT assay (IC₅₀ 0.32 mM) and significantly inhibited metastatic processes including migration, invasion, and adhesion that determined by wound healing assay, transwell assay, and adhesion assay, respectively. These findings indicate that terrein could be a potential therapeutic agent for lung cancer.

Keywords: terrein, lung cancer, anticancer, antimetastatic

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Authors: Kunto Nurcahyoko

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The fundamental perception used in this study is that teaching and learning activities in Indonesian classroom have potentially generated individual’s sensitivity on cross-cultural understanding. This study aims at investigating Indonesian university students’ perception on cross-cultural understanding after doing Cultural Snapshot Project. The data was critically analyzed through multicultural ideology and diversity theories. The subjects were 30 EFL college students in one of colleges in Indonesia. Each student was assigned to capture a photo which depicted the existence of any cultural manifestation in their surrounding such as discrimination, prejudice and stereotype. Students were then requested asked to reflect on the picture by writing a short description on the picture and make an exhibition using their pictures. In the end of the project, students were instructed to fill in questionnaires to show their perception before and after the project. The result reveals that Cultural Snapshot Project has given the opportunity for the students to better realize cross-cultural understanding in their environment. In conclusion, the study shows that Cultural Snapshot Project has specifically enhanced students’ perception of multiculturalism in three major areas: cultural sensitivity and empathy, social tolerance, and understanding of diversity.

Keywords: cultural snapshot, cross-cultural understanding, students’ perception, multiculturalism

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Authors: Pruethipong Xinghatiraj, Rajwanlop Kumpoopong

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Considering the current situation of road safety, Thailand has the world’s second-highest road fatality rate. Therefore, decreasing the road accidents in Thailand is a prime policy of the Thai government seeking to accomplish. One of the approaches to reduce the accident rate is to improve road environments to fit with the local behavior of the road users. The Department of Highways ensures that choosing the road median types right to the road characteristics, e.g. roadside characteristics, traffic volume, truck traffic percentage, etc., can decrease the possibility of accident occurrence. Presently, raised median, depressed median, painted median and median barriers are typically used in Thailand Highways. In this study, factors affecting road accident for each median type will be discovered through the analysis of the collecting of accident data, death numbers on sample of 600 Kilometers length across the country together with its roadside characteristics, traffic volume, heavy vehicles percentage, and other key factors. The benefits of this study can assist the Highway designers to select type of road medians that can match local environments and then cause less accident prone.

Keywords: highways, road safety, road median, forecasting model

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Authors: Geoffrey J. Blanford, Christoph Weissbart

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The prospects for the European power sector indicate that it has to almost fully decarbonize in order to reach the economy-wide target of CO₂-emission reduction. We apply the EU-REGEN model to explain the penetration of RES from an economic perspective, their spatial distribution, and the complementary role of conventional generation technologies. Furthermore, we identify economic consequences of national energy and climate targets. Our study shows that onshore wind power will be the most crucial generation technology for the future European power sector. Its geographic distribution is driven by resource quality. Gas power will be the major conventional generation technology for backing-up wind power. Moreover, a complete phase out of coal power proves to be not economically optimal. The paper demonstrates that existing national targets have a negative impact, especially on the German region with higher prices and lower revenues. The remaining regions profit are hardly affected. We encourage an EU-wide coordination on the expansion of wind power with harmonized policies. Yet, this requires profitable market structures for both, RES and conventional generation technologies.

Keywords: European, policy evaluation, power sector investment, technology choices

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Authors: I. O. Oyatayo, K. T. Oyatayo, B. Mamman

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This study was aimed at the assessment of heavy metal pollution of the water in river Benue along Ibi, Taraba State, Nigeria. Water samples were collected at ten sampling points over a distance of 100 meters each. The following water quality parameters were determined: TDS, copper, zinc, chromium, iron, mercury, nickel, and manganese, and the results were compared with the Nigerian Standard for Drinking Water Quality (NSDWQ) and WHO maximum permitted limits. The water quality analysis was conducted using the atomic absorption spectrophotometer (Model: 01-0960-00) at 510 nm. The mean value concentrations of copper, zinc, chromium, nickel, mercury, and mercury are within the permissible limits, while that of iron is above the limit. The summary of ANOVA single-factor statistics with a specified rejection level at α 0.05 is insignificant. The study concludes that the quality of water from river Benue along Ibi is deteriorating and unfit for human consumption. It was recommended that residents of the study area should be enlightened on the effects of indiscriminate dumping of waste and the proper handling and application of fertilizer and herbicides, as some of these end up in the river via surface runoff.

Keywords: heavy, metal, pollution, river, Ibi

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Authors: S. Nickolas, Shobha K.

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The treatment of incomplete data is an important step in the data pre-processing. Missing values creates a noisy environment in all applications and it is an unavoidable problem in big data management and analysis. Numerous techniques likes discarding rows with missing values, mean imputation, expectation maximization, neural networks with evolutionary algorithms or optimized techniques and hot deck imputation have been introduced by researchers for handling missing data. Among these, imputation techniques plays a positive role in filling missing values when it is necessary to use all records in the data and not to discard records with missing values. In this paper we propose a novel artificial neural network based clustering algorithm, Adaptive Resonance Theory-2(ART2) for imputation of missing values in mixed attribute data sets. The process of ART2 can recognize learned models fast and be adapted to new objects rapidly. It carries out model-based clustering by using competitive learning and self-steady mechanism in dynamic environment without supervision. The proposed approach not only imputes the missing values but also provides information about handling the outliers.

Keywords: ART2, data imputation, clustering, missing data, neural network, pre-processing

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Authors: Madhu Sudan, G. N. Tiwari

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In this paper, an attempt has been made to analyze the effect of wall window orientation on Daylight Illuminance Ratio (DIR) and energy saving in a building known as “SODHA BERS COMPLEX (SBC)” at Varanasi, UP, India. The building has been designed incorporating all passive concepts for thermal comfort as well daylighting concepts to maximize the use of natural daylighting for the occupants in the day to day activities. The annual average DIR and the energy saving has been estimated by using the DIR model for wall window with different orientations under clear sky condition. It has been found that for south oriented window the energy saving per square meter is more compared to the other orientations due to the higher level of solar insolation for the south window in northern hemisphere whereas energy saving potential is minimum for north oriented wall window. The energy saving potential was 26%, 81% and 51% higher for east, south and west oriented window in comparison to north oriented window. The average annual DIR has same trends of variation as the annual energy saving and it is maximum for south oriented window and minimum for north oriented window.

Keywords: clear sky, daylight factor, energy saving, wall window

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Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

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In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

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Authors: Karolína Vozková, Matěj Kuc

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Net fee and commission income is one of the key elements of a bank’s core income. In the current low-interest rate environment, this type of income is gaining importance relative to net interest income. This paper analyses the effects of bank and country specific determinants of net fee and commission income on a set of cooperative banks from European countries in the 2007-2014 period. In order to do that, dynamic panel data methods (system Generalized Methods of Moments) were employed. Subsequently, alternative panel data methods were run as robustness checks of the analysis. Strong positive impact of bank concentration on the share of net fee and commission income was found, which proves that cooperative banks tend to display a higher share of fee income in less competitive markets. This is probably connected with the fact that they stick with their traditional deposit-taking and loan-providing model and fees on these services are driven down by the competitors. Moreover, compared to commercial banks, cooperatives do not expand heavily into non-traditional fee bearing services under competition and their overall fee income share is therefore decreasing with the increased competitiveness of the sector.

Keywords: cooperative banking, dynamic panel data models, net fee and commission income, system GMM

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Authors: Richard McGregor, Carmen Reaiche, Stephen Boyle

Abstract:

Cyber threats are a relatively recent phenomenon and offer cyber insurers a dynamic and intelligent peril. As individuals en mass become increasingly digitally dependent, Personal Cyber Insurance (PCI) offers an attractive option to mitigate cyber risk at a personal level. This abstract proposes a literature review that conceptualises a framework for siting Personal Cyber Insurance (PCI) within the context of cyberspace. The lack of empirical research within this domain demonstrates an immediate need to define the scope of PCI to allow cyber insurers to understand personal cyber risk threats and vectors, customer awareness, capabilities, and their associated needs. Additionally, this will allow cyber insurers to conceptualise appropriate frameworks allowing effective management and distribution of PCI products and services within a landscape often in-congruent with risk attributes commonly associated with traditional personal line insurance products. Cyberspace has provided significant improvement to the quality of social connectivity and productivity during past decades and allowed enormous capability uplift of information sharing and communication between people and communities. Conversely, personal digital dependency furnish ample opportunities for adverse cyber events such as data breaches and cyber-attacksthus introducing a continuous and insidious threat of omnipresent cyber risk–particularly since the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic and wide-spread adoption of ‘work-from-home’ practices. Recognition of escalating inter-dependencies, vulnerabilities and inadequate personal cyber behaviours have prompted efforts by businesses and individuals alike to investigate strategies and tactics to mitigate cyber risk – of which cyber insurance is a viable, cost-effective option. It is argued that, ceteris parabus, the nature of cyberspace intrinsically provides characteristic peculiarities that pose significant and bespoke challenges to cyber insurers, often in-congruent with risk attributes commonly associated with traditional personal line insurance products. These challenges include (inter alia) a paucity of historical claim/loss data for underwriting and pricing purposes, interdependencies of cyber architecture promoting high correlation of cyber risk, difficulties in evaluating cyber risk, intangibility of risk assets (such as data, reputation), lack of standardisation across the industry, high and undetermined tail risks, and moral hazard among others. This study proposes a thematic overview of the literature deemed necessary to conceptualise the challenges to issuing personal cyber coverage. There is an evident absence of empirical research appertaining to PCI and the design of operational business models for this business domain, especially qualitative initiatives that (1) attempt to define the scope of the peril, (2) secure an understanding of the needs of both cyber insurer and customer, and (3) to identify elements pivotal to effective management and profitable distribution of PCI - leading to an argument proposed by the author that postulates that the traditional general insurance customer journey and business model are ill-suited for the lineaments of cyberspace. The findings of the review confirm significant gaps in contemporary research within the domain of personal cyber insurance.

Keywords: cyberspace, personal cyber risk, personal cyber insurance, customer journey, business model

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