Search results for: road traffic model

Authors: Mohamad Najari, Gilbert Grondin, Marwan El-Rich

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Design trucks in standard codes are selected based on the amount of damage they cause on structures-specifically bridges- and roads to represent the real traffic loads. Some limited numbers of trucks are run on a bridge one at a time and the damage on the bridge is recorded for each truck. One design track is also run on the same bridge “n” times -“n” is the number of trucks used previously- to calculate the damage of the design truck on the same bridge. To make these damages equal a reduction factor is needed for that specific design truck in the codes. As the limited number of trucks cannot be the exact representative of real traffic through the life of the structure, these reduction factors are not accurately calculated and they should be modified accordingly. Started on July 2004, the vehicle load data were collected in six weigh in motion (WIM) sites owned by Alberta Transportation for eight consecutive years. This database includes more than 200 million trucks. Having these data gives the opportunity to compare the effect of any standard fatigue trucks weigh and the real traffic load on the fatigue life of the bridges which leads to a modification for the fatigue truck factor in the code. To calculate the damage for each truck, the truck is run on the bridge, moment history of the detail under study is recorded, stress range cycles are counted, and then damage is calculated using available S-N curves. A 2000 lines FORTRAN code has been developed to perform the analysis and calculate the damages of the trucks in the database for all eight fatigue categories according to Canadian Institute of Steel Construction (CSA S-16). Stress cycles are counted using rain flow counting method. The modification factors for design truck (CL-625) are calculated for two different bridge configurations and ten span lengths varying from 1 m to 200 m. The two considered bridge configurations are single-span bridge and four span bridge. This was found to be sufficient and representative for a simply supported span, positive moment in end spans of bridges with two or more spans, positive moment in interior spans of three or more spans, and the negative moment at an interior support of multi-span bridges. The moment history of the mid span is recorded for single-span bridge and, exterior positive moment, interior positive moment, and support negative moment are recorded for four span bridge. The influence lines are expressed by a polynomial expression obtained from a regression analysis of the influence lines obtained from SAP2000. It is found that for design truck (CL-625) fatigue truck factor is varying from 0.35 to 0.55 depending on span lengths and bridge configuration. The detail results will be presented in the upcoming papers. This code can be used for any design trucks available in standard codes.

Keywords: bridge, fatigue, fatigue design truck, rain flow analysis, FORTRAN

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Authors: Jan-Peter Mund, Christian Kind

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In view of the ongoing climate change and global warming, fires along railways in Germany are occurring more frequently, with sometimes massive consequences for railway operations and affected railroad infrastructure. In the absence of systematic studies within the infrastructure network of German Rail, little is known about the causes of such embankment fires. Since a further increase in these hazards is to be expected in the near future, there is a need for a sound knowledge of triggers and drivers for embankment fires as well as methodical knowledge of prediction tools. Two predictable future trends speak for the increasing relevance of the topic: through the intensification of the use of rail for passenger and freight transport (e.g..: doubling of annual passenger numbers by 2030, compared to 2019), there will be more rail traffic and also more maintenance and construction work on the railways. This research project approach uses satellite data to identify historical embankment fires along rail network infrastructure. The team links data from these fires with infrastructure and weather data and trains a machine-learning model with the aim of predicting fire hazards on sections of the track. Companies reflect on the results and use them on a pilot basis in precautionary measures.

Keywords: embankment fires, railway maintenance, machine learning, remote sensing, VIIRS data

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Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen

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This paper will demonstrate a simulation model of an information security system by using the systems dynamic approach. The relationships in the system model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular information security environments. The purpose of the paper aims to develop a generic system dynamic information security system model with implications on information security research. The interrelated and interdependent relationships of five primary sectors in the system dynamic model will be presented in this paper. The integrated information security systems model will include (1) information security characteristics, (2) users, (3) technology, (4) business functions, and (5) policy and management. Environments, attacks, government and social culture will be defined as the external sector. The interactions within each of these sectors will be depicted by system loop map as well. The proposed system dynamic model will not only provide a conceptual framework for information security analysts and designers but also allow information security managers to remove the incongruity between the management of risk incidents and the management of knowledge and further support information security managers and decision makers the foundation for managerial actions and policy decisions.

Keywords: system thinking, information security systems, security management, simulation

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Authors: Nadilla Saskia, Octoria Nur, Assegaf Zareeva

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Mass transport infrastructures are essential to enhance the connectivity between regions and regional equity in Indonesia. Indonesia’s capital city, Jakarta, ranked the 10th highest congestion rate in the world based on the 2019 traffic index, contributing to air pollution and energy consumption. Other than that, the World Air Quality Report in 2019 depicted Jakarta’s air pollutant concentration at 49.4 mg, the 5th highest in the world. Issues of severe traffic congestion, lack of sufficient urban infrastructure in Jakarta, and greenhouse gas emissions have to be addressed through mass transportation. Indonesia’s government is currently constructing The Greater Jakarta LRT (Light Rapid Transit) as convenient, efficient, and environmentally friendly transportation connecting Jakarta with Bekasi and Cibubur areas and plans to serve the passengers in August 2023. Greater Jakarta LRT is operated with Grade of Automation (GoA) No.3, Driverless Train Operation (DTO). Hence, the automated technology used in rail infrastructure is anticipated to address these issues with greater results. The paper will be validated and establish the extent to which the automation system would increase energy efficiency, help reduce carbon emissions, and benefit the environment. Based on the calculated CO2 emissions and fuel consumption for the existing condition (2015) during the feasibility study of the LRT Project and the predicted condition in 2030, it is obtained that Greater Jakarta LRT with GoA3 operation will reduce the CO2 emissions and fuel consumption by more than 50% in 2030. In the bigger picture, Greater Jakarta LRT supports the government's goal of achieving Jakarta Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) 2050.

Keywords: LRT, Grade of Automation (GoA), energy efficiency, carbon emissions, railway infrastructure, DKI Jakarta

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Authors: Semih Sözer

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One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.

Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development

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Authors: Albert Gyamfi

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Cocoa plays critical role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. Meanwhile, smallholder farmers most of whom are illiterate dominate the industry. According to the cocoa-based agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS) model knowledge is created and transferred to the industry between three key actors: cocoa researchers, extension experts, and cocoa farmers. Dwelling on the SECI model, the media richness theory (MRT), and the AKIS model, a conceptual model of web 2.0-based AKIS model (AKIS 2.0) is developed and used to assess the possible effects of social media usage for knowledge creation in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. A mixed method approach with a survey questionnaire was employed, and a second-order multi-group structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the data. The study concludes that the use of web 2.0 applications for knowledge creation would lead to sustainable interactions among the key knowledge actors for effective knowledge creation in the cocoa industry in Ghana.

Keywords: agriculture, cocoa, knowledge, media, web 2.0

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Authors: M. Lu

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The paper presents part of the results of EU-funded projects: SoCool@EU (Sustainable Organisation between Clusters Of Optimized Logistics @ Europe), DG-RTD (Research and Innovation), Regions of Knowledge Programme (FP7-REGIONS-2011-1). It will provide an in-depth review of emerging technologies for further improving urban mobility and freight transport systems, such as (information and physical) infrastructure, ICT-based Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS), vehicles, advanced logistics, and services. Furthermore, the paper will provide an analysis of the barriers and will review business models for the market uptake of innovations. From a perspective of science and technology, the challenges of urbanization could be mainly handled through adequate (human-oriented) solutions for urban planning, sustainable energy, the water system, building design and construction, the urban transport system (both physical and information aspects), and advanced logistics and services. Implementation of solutions for these domains should be follow a highly integrated and balanced approach, a silo approach should be avoided. To develop a sustainable urban transport system (for people and goods), including inter-hubs and intra-hubs, a holistic view is needed. To achieve a sustainable transport system for people and goods (in terms of cost-effectiveness, efficiency, environment-friendliness and fulfillment of the mobility, transport and logistics needs of the society), a proper network and information infrastructure, advanced transport systems and operations, as well as ad hoc and seamless services are required. In addition, a road map for an enhanced urban transport system until 2050 will be presented. This road map aims to address the challenges of urban transport, and to provide best practices in inter-city and intra-city environments from various perspectives, including policy, traveler behaviour, economy, liability, business models, and technology.

Keywords: synchromodality, multimodal transport, logistics, Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation

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Authors: Ma Lanting, S. Eguilior, A. Hurtado, Juan F. Llamas Borrajo

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Horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a technology to increase natural gas flow and improve productivity in the low permeability formation. During this drilling operation tons of flowback and produced water which contains many organic compounds return to the surface with a potential risk of influencing the surrounding environment and human health. A mathematical model is urgently needed to represent organic compounds in water transportation process behavior and the concentration change with time throughout the hydraulic fracturing operation life cycle. A comprehensive model combined Organic Matter Transport Dynamic Model with Two-Compartment First-order Model Constant (TFRC) Model has been established to quantify the organic compounds concentration. This algorithm model is composed of two transportation parts based on time factor. For the fast part, the curve fitting technique is applied using flowback water data from the Marcellus shale gas site fracturing and the coefficients of determination (R2) from all analyzed compounds demonstrate a high experimental feasibility of this numerical model. Furthermore, along a decade of drilling the concentration ratio curves have been estimated by the slow part of this model. The result shows that the larger value of Koc in chemicals, the later maximum concentration in water will reach, as well as all the maximum concentrations percentage would reach up to 90% of initial concentration from shale formation within a long sufficient period.

Keywords: model, shale gas, concentration, organic compounds

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Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo

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Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.

Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML

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Authors: Robert Setekera, Ramses van der Toorn

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We present an extensive analysis of the temperature dependence of the local avalanche model used in most of the modern compact models for bipolar transistors. This local avalanche model uses the Chynoweth's empirical law for ionization coefficient to define the generation of the avalanche current in terms of the local electric field. We carry out the model analysis using DC-measurements taken on both Si and advanced SiGe bipolar transistors. For the advanced industrial SiGe-HBTs, we consider both high-speed and high-power devices (both NPN and PNP transistors). The limitations of the local avalanche model in modeling the temperature dependence of the avalanche current mostly in the weak avalanche region are demonstrated. In addition, the model avalanche parameters are analyzed to see if they are in agreement with semiconductor device physics.

Keywords: avalanche multiplication, avalanche current, bipolar transistors, compact modeling, electric field, impact ionization, local avalanche

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Authors: Jiri Dufek

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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Mohsen Solimani Babarsad, Payam Taheri

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Numerical results of vertical slot fishways with and without cylinders study are presented. The simulated results and the measured data in the fishways are compared to validate the application of the model. This investigation is made using FLUENT V.6.3, a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver. Advantages of using these types of numerical tools are the possibility of avoiding the St.-Venant equations’ limitations, and turbulence can be modeled by means of different models such as the k-ε model. In general, the present study has demonstrated that the CFD model could be useful for analysis and design of vertical slot fishways with cylinders.

Keywords: slot Fish-way, CFD, k-ε model, St.-Venant equations’

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Authors: N. P. Bhandary, R. C. Tiwari, R. Yatabe

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The research employs finite element method to evaluate the stability of roadside settlements slopes from Barpak to Yamagaon through Laprak village of Gorkha, Nepal after the 7.8Mw 2015 Barpak, Gorkha, Nepal earthquake. It includes three major villages of Gorkha, i.e., Barpak, Laprak and Yamagaun that were devastated by 2015 Gorkhas’ earthquake. The road head distance from the Barpak to Laprak and Laprak to Yamagaun are about 14 and 29km respectively. The epicentral distance of main shock of magnitude 7.8 and aftershock of magnitude 6.6 were respectively 7 and 11 kilometers (South-East) far from the Barpak village nearer to Laprak and Yamagaon. It is also believed that the epicenter of the main shock as said until now was not in the Barpak village, it was somewhere near to the Yamagaun village. The chaos that they had experienced during the earthquake in the Yamagaun was much more higher than the Barpak. In this context, we have carried out a detailed study to investigate the stability of Yamagaun settlements slope as a case study, where ground fissures, ground settlement, multiple cracks and toe failures are the most severe. In this regard, the stability issues of existing settlements and proposed road alignment, on the Yamagaon village slope are addressed, which is surrounded by many newly activated landslides. Looking at the importance of this issue, field survey is carried out to understand the behavior of ground fissures and multiple failure characteristics of the slopes. The results suggest that the Yamgaun slope in Profile 2-2, 3-3 and 4-4 are not safe enough for infrastructure development even in the normal soil slope conditions as per 2, 3 and 4 material models; however, the slope seems quite safe for at Profile 1-1 for all 4 material models. The result also indicates that the first three profiles are marginally safe for 2, 3 and 4 material models respectively. The Profile 4-4 is not safe enough for all 4 material models. Thus, Profile 4-4 needs a special care to make the slope stable.

Keywords: earthquake, finite element method, landslide, stability

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Authors: Arpita Mondal, Aurobinda Routray, Sreeraj Puravankara, Rajashree Biswas

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The most difficult part of designing a battery management system (BMS) is battery modeling. A good battery model can capture the dynamics which helps in energy management, by accurate model-based state estimation algorithms. So far the most suitable and fruitful model is the equivalent circuit model (ECM). However, in real-time applications, the model parameters are time-varying, changes with current, temperature, state of charge (SOC), and aging of the battery and this make a great impact on the performance of the model. Therefore, to increase the equivalent circuit model performance, the parameter estimation has been carried out in the frequency domain. The battery is a very complex system, which is associated with various chemical reactions and heat generation. Therefore, it’s very difficult to select the optimal model structure. As we know, if the model order is increased, the model accuracy will be improved automatically. However, the higher order model will face the tendency of over-parameterization and unfavorable prediction capability, while the model complexity will increase enormously. In the time domain, it becomes difficult to solve higher order differential equations as the model order increases. This problem can be resolved by frequency domain analysis, where the overall computational problems due to ill-conditioning reduce. In the frequency domain, several dominating frequencies can be found in the input as well as output data. The selective frequency domain estimation has been carried out, first by estimating the frequencies of the input and output by subspace decomposition, then by choosing the specific bands from the most dominating to the least, while carrying out the least-square, recursive least square and Kalman Filter based parameter estimation. In this paper, a second order battery model consisting of three resistors, two capacitors, and one SOC controlled voltage source has been chosen. For model identification and validation hybrid pulse power characterization (HPPC) tests have been carried out on a 2.6 Ah LiFePO₄ battery.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, frequency estimation, parameter estimation, subspace decomposition

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Authors: Birinderjit Singh Kalyan, Inderpreet Kaur, Balwinder Singh Sohi

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In this paper, an equivalent model for floating gate transistor has been proposed. Using the floating gate voltage value, capacitive coupling coefficients has been found at different bias conditions. The amount of charge present on the gate has been then calculated using the transient models of hot electron programming and Fowler-Nordheim Tunnelling. The proposed model can be extended to the transient conditions as well. The SPICE equivalent model is designed and current-voltage characteristics and Transfer characteristics are comparatively analysed. The dc current-voltage characteristics, as well as dc transfer characteristics, have been plotted for an FGMOS with W/L=0.25μm/0.375μm, the inter-poly capacitance of 0.8fF for both programmed and erased states. The Comparative analysis has been made between the present model and capacitive coefficient coupling methods which were already available.

Keywords: FGMOS, floating gate transistor, capacitive coupling coefficient, SPICE model

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Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Wei-Ting Hsu

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The purposes of the study were to understand these topics as follows: 1. To explore the effect of merging teaching personal and social responsibility (TPSR) with sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 2. To explore the effect of sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 3. To compare the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' game performance and responsibility. The participants include three high school physical education teachers and six physical education classes. Every teacher teaches an experimental group and a control group. The participants had 121 students, including 65 students in the experimental group and 56 students in the control group. The research methods had game performance assessment, questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments include personal and social responsibility questionnaire and game performance assessment instrument. Paired t-test test and MANCOVA were used to test the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' learning performance. 1) "Merging TPSR with sports education model" showed significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with self-direction, helping others, cooperation. 2) "Sports education model" also had significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with effort, self-direction, helping others. 3.) There was no significant difference in game performance and responsibilities between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model". 4)."Merging TPSR with sports education model" significantly improve learning atmosphere and peer relationships, it may be developed in the physical education curriculum. The conclusions were as follows: Both "Merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" can help improve students' responsibility and game performance. However, "Merging TPSR with sports education model" can reduce the competitive atmosphere in highly intensive games between students. The curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model is a good approach for moral character education.

Keywords: curriculum and teaching model, sports self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, character education

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Authors: Suparman Suparman

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A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

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Authors: Mohammad Saber Rohi, Saghar Heidari

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In this paper, we studied the pricing problem of American options under a regime-switching model with the possibility of a non-optimal exercise policy (early or late exercise time) which is called an irrational strategy. For this, we consider a Markovmodulated model for the dynamic of the underlying asset as an alternative model to the classical Balck-Scholes-Merton model (BSM) and an intensity-based model for the irrational strategy, to provide more realistic results for American option prices under the irrational behavior in real financial markets. Applying a partial differential equation (PDE) approach, the pricing problem of American options under regime-switching models can be formulated as coupled PDEs. To solve the resulting systems of PDEs in this model, we apply a finite element method as the numerical solving procedure to the resulting variational inequality. Under some appropriate assumptions, we establish the stability of the method and compare its accuracy to some recent works to illustrate the suitability of the proposed model and the accuracy of the applied numerical method for the pricing problem of American options under the regime-switching model with irrational behaviors.

Keywords: irrational exercise strategy, rationality parameter, regime-switching model, American option, finite element method, variational inequality

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Authors: K. G. R. M. Jayathilake, S. Rudra

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Wood degradation in hot compressed water is modeled with a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code using cellulose, xylan, and lignin as model compounds. Model compounds are reacted under catalyst-free conditions in a temperature range from 250 to 370 °C. Using a simplified reaction scheme where water soluble products, methanol soluble products, char like compounds and gas are generated through intermediates with each model compound. A modified multistage shrinking core model is developed to simulate particle degradation. In the modified shrinking core model, each model compound is hydrolyzed in separate stages. Cellulose is decomposed to glucose/oligomers before producing degradation products. Xylan is decomposed through xylose and then to degradation products where lignin is decomposed into soluble products before producing the total guaiacol, organic carbon (TOC) and then char and gas. Hydrolysis of each model compound is used as the main reaction of the process. Diffusion of water monomers to the particle surface to initiate hydrolysis and dissolution of the products in water is given importance during the modeling process. In the developed model the temperature variation depends on the Arrhenius relationship. Kinetic parameters from the literature are used for the mathematical model. Meanwhile, limited initial fast reaction kinetic data limit the development of more accurate CFD models. Liquefaction results of the CFD model are analyzed and validated using the experimental data available in the literature where it shows reasonable agreement.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, liquefaction, shrinking-core, wood

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Authors: A. Amar

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A new model, namely the crystal model, has been modified to calculate the radius and density distribution of light nuclei up to ⁸Be. The crystal model has been modified according to solid-state physics, which uses the analogy between nucleon distribution and atoms distribution in the crystal. The model has analytical analysis to calculate the radius where the density distribution of light nuclei has obtained from analogy of crystal lattice. The distribution of nucleons over crystal has been discussed in a general form. The equation that has been used to calculate binding energy was taken from the solid-state model of repulsive and attractive force. The numbers of the protons were taken to control repulsive force, where the atomic number was responsible for the attractive force. The parameter has been calculated from the crystal model was found to be proportional to the radius of the nucleus. The density distribution of light nuclei was taken as a summation of two clusters distribution as in ⁶Li=alpha+deuteron configuration. A test has been done on the data obtained for radius and density distribution using double folding for d+⁶,⁷Li with M3Y nucleon-nucleon interaction. Good agreement has been obtained for both the radius and density distribution of light nuclei. The model failed to calculate the radius of ⁹Be, so modifications should be done to overcome discrepancy.

Keywords: nuclear physics, nuclear lattice, study nucleus as crystal, light nuclei till to ⁸Be

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Authors: Jamil Ahmed

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Access control models aim to decide whether a user should be denied or granted access to the user‟s requested activity. Various access control models have been established and proposed. The most prominent of these models include role-based, attribute-based, policy based access control models as well as role-centric attribute based access control model. In this paper, a novel access control model is presented called “Role centric Attribute based Policy Driven Access Control (RAPDAC) model”. RAPDAC incorporates the concept of “policy” in the “role centric attribute based access control model”. It leverages the concept of "policy‟ by precisely combining the evaluation of conditions, attributes, permissions and roles in order to allow authorization access. This approach allows capturing the "access control policy‟ of a real time application in a well defined manner. RAPDAC model allows making access decision at much finer granularity as illustrated by the case study of a real time library information system.

Keywords: authorization, access control model, role based access control, attribute based access control

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Authors: Mumtaz Ali, Hamzullah Khan, Khalid Khanzada, Shahid Ayub, Aurangzeb Wazir

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Objective: To analyse the death of patients treated in neuro-surgical ICU for severe head injuries from different perspectives. The evaluation of the data so obtained to help improve the health care delivery to this group of patients in ICU. Study Design: It is a descriptive study based on retrospective analysis of patients presenting to neuro-surgical ICU in Lady Reading Hospital, Peshawar. Study Duration: It covered the period between 1st January 2009 to 31st December 2009. Material and Methods: The Clinical record of all the patients presenting with the clinical radiological and surgical features of severe head injuries, who expired in neuro-surgical ICU was collected. A separate proforma which mentioned age, sex, time of arrival and death, causes of head injuries, the radiological features, the clinical parameters, the surgical and non surgical treatment given was used. The average duration of stay and the demographic and domiciliary representation of these patients was noted. The record was analyzed accordingly for discussion and recommendations. Results: Out of the total 112 (n-112) patients who expired in one year in the neuro-surgical ICU the young adults made up the majority 64 (57.14%) followed by children, 34 (30.35%) and then the elderly age group: 10 (8.92%). Road traffic accidents were the major cause of presentation, 75 (66.96%) followed by history of fall; 23 (20.53%) and then the fire arm injuries; 13 (11.60%). The predominant CT scan features of these patients on presentation was cerebral edema, and midline shift (diffuse neuronal injuries). 46 (41.07%) followed by cerebral contusions. 28 (25%). The correctable surgical causes were present only in 18 patients (16.07%) and the majority 94 (83.92%) were given conservative management. Of the 69 (n=69) patients in which CT scan was repeated; 62 (89.85%) showed worsening of the initial CT scan abnormalities while in 7 cases (10.14%) the features were static. Among the non surgical cases both ventilatory therapy in 7 (6.25%) and tracheostomy in 39 (34.82%) failed to change the outcome. The maximum stay in the neuro ICU leading upto the death was 48 hours in 35 (31.25%) cases followed by 31 (27.67%) cases in 24 hours; 24 (21.42%) in one week and 16 (14.28%) in 72 hours. Only 6 (5.35%) patients survived more than a week. Patients were received from almost all the districts of NWFP except. The Hazara division. There were some Afghan refugees as well. Conclusion: Mortality following the head injuries is alarmingly high despite repeated claims about the professional and administrative improvement. Even places like ICU could not change the out come according to the desired aims and objectives in the present set up. A rethinking is needed both at the individual and institutional level among the concerned quarters with a clear aim at the more scientific grounds. Only then one can achieve the desired results.

Keywords: Glasgow Coma Scale, pediatrics, geriatrics, Peshawar

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Authors: Panagiota Koliousi, Natasha Miaouli

Abstract:

We compare product and labour market liberalization under the two trade union bargaining models: the Right-to-Manage (RTM) model and the Efficient Bargaining (EB) model. The vehicle is a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model that incorporates two types of agents (capitalists and workers), imperfectly competitive product and labour markets. The model is solved numerically employing common parameter values and data from the euro area. A key message is that product market deregulation is favourable under any labour market structure while opting for labour market deregulation one should provide special attention to the structure of the labour market such as the bargaining system of unions. If the prevailing way of bargaining is the RTM model then restructuring both markets is beneficial for all agents.

Keywords: market structure, structural reforms, trade unions, unemployment

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Authors: Tanya Kaur Bedi, Shankha Pratim Bhattacharya

Abstract:

The US Environmental Protection Agency defines indoor air pollution as “The air quality within and around buildings, especially as it relates to the health and comfort of building occupants”. According to the 2021 report by the Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, Indian residents, a country which is home to the highest levels of air pollution in the world, lose about 5.9 years from life expectancy due to poor air quality and yet has numerous dwellings dependent on natural ventilation. Currently the urban population spends 90% of the time indoors, this scenario raises a concern for occupant health and well-being. This study attempts to demonstrate the causal relationship between the indoor air pollution and its determining aspects. Detailed indoor air pollution audits were conducted in residential buildings located in Kolkata, India in the months of December and January 2021. According to the air pollution knowledge assessment city program in India, Kolkata is also the second most polluted mega-city after Delhi. Although the air pollution levels are alarming year-long, the winter months are most crucial due to the unfavourable environmental conditions. While emissions remain typically constant throughout the year, cold air is denser and moves slower than warm air, trapping the pollution in place for much longer and consequently is breathed in at a higher rate than the summers. The air pollution monitoring period was selected considering environmental factors and major pollution contributors like traffic and road dust. This study focuses on the relationship between the built environment and the spatial-temporal distribution of air pollutants in and around it. The measured parameters include, temperature, relative humidity, air velocity, particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, formaldehyde, and benzene. A total of 56 rooms were audited, selectively targeting the most dominant middle-income group in the urban area of the metropolitan. The data-collection was conducted using a set of instruments positioned in the human breathing-zone. The study assesses the relationship between indoor air pollution levels and factors determining natural ventilation and air pollution dispersion such as surrounding environment, dominant wind, openable window to floor area ratio, windward or leeward side openings, and natural ventilation type in the room: single side or cross-ventilation, floor height, residents cleaning habits, etc.

Keywords: indoor air quality, occupant health, air pollution, architecture, urban environment

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Authors: Benjamin Aina Peter, Amos Wale Ogunsola

Abstract:

In this paper, a mathematical model of malaria transmission was presented with the effect of seasonal shift, due to global fluctuation in temperature, on the increase of conveyor of the infectious disease, which probably alters the region transmission potential of malaria. A deterministic compartmental model was proposed and analyzed qualitatively. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches of the model were considered. The next-generation matrix is employed to determine the basic reproduction number of the model. Equilibrium points of the model were determined and analyzed. The numerical simulation is carried out using Excel Micro Software to validate and support the qualitative results. From the analysis of the result, the optimal temperature for the transmission of malaria is between and . The result also shows that an increase in temperature due to seasonal shift gives rise to the development of parasites which consequently leads to an increase in the widespread of malaria transmission in Kampala. It is also seen from the results that an increase in temperature leads to an increase in the number of infectious human hosts and mosquitoes.

Keywords: seasonal variation, indoor residual spray, efficacy of spray, temperature-dependent model

Procedia PDF Downloads 167