Search results for: extreme weather events

Authors: Paulo José Sigaúque, Paulo Rosman

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The Itajurú channel, located in the Eastern side of the Araruama lagoon, Rio de Janeiro state, is the one who makes the connection between Araruama lagoon and the sea. It is important to understand the hydrodynamic circulation of the location and effects of the sedimentological processes, and also estimate of the hydrodynamic and sedimentological processes in the future after the sea level change due to effects of climate change. This work presents results of a study about sediments dynamics in the Araruama lagoon focusing on the Itajurú channel region considering the present mean sea level and a foreseen sea level rise of 0.5 meters due to climate changes. The study was conducted with the aid of computer modeling for hydrodynamic and morphodynamic in SisBaHiA®. The results indicate that Araruama lagoon is composed by two hydrodynamics compartments; one is dominated by the action of the tide between the entrance of the channel and the strait of Perynas, and another one by the action of wind in narrow region between strait of Perynas and western extreme of the lagoon. With sea level rise, the magnitude of current velocities and flow rates is increased and consequently flow of sediment transport from upstream to downstream of Itajurú channel is increased and has more effect in the bridge Feliciano Sodré.

Keywords: hydrodinamic, superelevation, sea level, climate change

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Authors: Devika Nair, Sean Bellairs, Ken Evans

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Flow and erosion modeling provides an avenue for simulating the fine suspended sediment in surface water systems like streams and creeks. Fine suspended sediment is highly mobile, and many contaminants that may have been released by any sort of catchment disturbance attach themselves to these sediments. Therefore, a knowledge of fine suspended sediment transport is important in assessing contaminant transport. The CAESAR-Lisflood Landform Evolution Model, which includes a hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) and a hydraulic model (Lisflood), is being used to assess the sediment movement in tropical streams on account of a disturbance in the catchment of the creek and to determine the dynamics of sediment quantity in the creek through the years by simulating the model for future years. The accuracy of future simulations depends on the calibration and validation of the model to the past and present events. Calibration and validation of the model involve finding a combination of parameters of the model, which, when applied and simulated, gives model outputs similar to those observed for the real site scenario for corresponding input data. Calibrating the sediment output of the CAESAR-Lisflood model at the catchment level and using it for studying the equilibrium conditions of the landform is an area yet to be explored. Therefore, the aim of the study was to calibrate the CAESAR-Lisflood model and then validate it so that it could be run for future simulations to study how the landform evolves over time. To achieve this, the model was run for a rainfall event with a set of parameters, plus discharge and sediment data for the input point of the catchment, to analyze how similar the model output would behave when compared with the discharge and sediment data for the output point of the catchment. The model parameters were then adjusted until the model closely approximated the real site values of the catchment. It was then validated by running the model for a different set of events and checking that the model gave similar results to the real site values. The outcomes demonstrated that while the model can be calibrated to a greater extent for hydrology (discharge output) throughout the year, the sediment output calibration may be slightly improved by having the ability to change parameters to take into account the seasonal vegetation growth during the start and end of the wet season. This study is important to assess hydrology and sediment movement in seasonal biomes. The understanding of sediment-associated metal dispersion processes in rivers can be used in a practical way to help river basin managers more effectively control and remediate catchments affected by present and historical metal mining.

Keywords: erosion modelling, fine suspended sediments, hydrology, surface water systems

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Authors: Michael Bellas, George Voulgaridis

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This paper refers to the world known mega - landslide induced at the community of Ropoto, belonging to the Municipality of Trikala, in the Central part of Greece. The landslide affected the debris as well as the colluvium mantle of the flysch, and makes up a special case of study in engineering geology and geotechnical engineering not only because of the size of the domain affected by the landslide (approximately 750m long), but also because of the geostructure’s global behavior. Due to the landslide, the whole community’s infrastructure massively collapsed and human lives were put in danger. After the complete simulation of the coupled Seepage - Deformation phenomenon due to the extreme rainfall, and by closely examining the slope’s global behavior, both the mitigation of the landslide, as well as, an advanced surveillance method (Fiber Bragg Grating) using fiber optics were further studied, in order both to retain the geostructure and to monitor its health by creating an early warning system, which would serve as a complete safety net for saving both the community’s infrastructure as well as the lives of its habitats.

Keywords: landslide, remediation measures, the finite element method (FEM), Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sensing method

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Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

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In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used as regional climate model to dynamically downscale the ECHAM5 Global Climate Model projection for the regional climate change impact on air quality–related meteorological conditions in the upper northern Thailand. The analyses were focused on meteorological variables that potentially impact on the regional air quality such as sea level pressure, planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), surface temperature, wind speed and ventilation. Comparisons were made between the present (1990–2009) and future (2045–2064) climate downscaling results during majority air pollution season (dry season, January-April). Analyses showed that the sea level pressure will be stronger in the future, suggesting more stable atmosphere. Increases in temperature were obvious observed throughout the region. Decreases in surface wind and PBLH were predicted during air pollution season, indicating weaker ventilation rate in this region. Consequently, air quality-related meteorological variables were predicted to change in almost part of the upper northern Thailand, yielding a favorable meteorological condition for pollutant accumulation in the future.

Keywords: climate change, climate impact, air quality, air pollution, Thailand

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Authors: E. Ewemoje Oluseyi, T. A. Ewemoje, A. A. Adedeji

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Biodegradable solid waste disposal and management has been a major problem in Nigeria and indiscriminate dumping of this waste either into watercourses or drains has led to environmental hazards affecting public health. The study investigated the nutrients level of pit composting and vermicomposting. Wooden bins 60 cm × 30 cm × 30 cm³ in size were constructed and bedding materials (sawdust, egg shell, paper and grasses) and red worms (Eisenia fetida) introduced to facilitate the free movement and protection of the worms against harsh weather. A pit of 100 cm × 100 cm × 100 cm³ was dug and worms were introduced into the pit, which was turned every two weeks. Food waste was fed to the red worms in the bin and pit, respectively. The composts were harvested after 100 days and analysed. The analyses gave: nitrogen has average value 0.87 % and 1.29 %; phosphorus 0.66 % and 1.78 %; potassium 4.35 % and 6.27 % for the pit and vermicomposting, respectively. Higher nutrient status of vermicomposting over pit composting may be attributed to the secretions in the intestinal tracts of worms which are more readily available for plant growth. However, iron and aluminium were more in the pit compost than the vermin compost and this may be attributed to the iron and aluminium already present in the soil before the composting took place. Other nutrients in ppm concentrations were aluminium 4,999.50 and 3,989.33; iron 2,131.83 and 633.40 for the pit and vermicomposting, respectively. These nutrients are only needed by plants in small quantities. Hence, vermicomposting has the higher concentration of essential nutrients necessary for healthy plant growth.

Keywords: food wastes, pit composting, plant nutrient status, tropical environment, vermicomposting

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Authors: Naznin Sultana Daisy, Mohammad Hesam Hafezi, Lei Liu

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Nowadays, oily solid waste management has become an important issue for many countries due to frequent oil spill accidents and the increase of industrial oily wastewater. The historical oil spill data show that marine oil spills that affect the shoreline can, in extreme cases, produce up to 30 or 40 times more waste than the volume of oil initially released. Hence, responsive authorities aim to develop the most effective oily waste management solution in a timely manner to manage and minimize the waste generated. In this study initially, we tried to develop the roadmap of oily waste management for three-tiered spill scenarios for Atlantic Canada. For that purpose, three oily waste disposal scenarios are evaluated via six criteria which are determined according to the opinions of the experts from the field. Consequently, through sustainable response strategies, the most appropriate and feasible scenario is determined. The results of this study will assist to develop an integrated oily waste management system for identifying the optimal waste-generation-allocation-disposal schemes and generating the optimal management alternatives based on the holistic consideration of environmental, technological, economic, social, and regulatory factors.

Keywords: oily waste management, marine oil spill, multi-criteria decision making, oil spill response

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Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

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Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: just in time, lean manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, supply chain management

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Authors: Yu Yaochuan

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This paper explores the pivotal role of public opinion during the Xinhai Revolution. Examining the dynamics of public sentiment in Chinese society in 1911 shows how information dissemination, ideological propaganda, and public mobilization worked together to drive the revolution to success. The study highlights the indispensable role of revolutionary newspapers, assemblies, and speeches in spreading revolutionary ideas, mobilizing the public, and shaping policy perceptions. By analyzing these historical events, the paper provides a deeper insight into the Xinhai Revolution and offers theoretical and empirical support for understanding the application of public opinion in modern social and political transformations.

Keywords: Xinhai Revolution, public opinion, social mobilization, information dissemination, ideology, political transformation

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Authors: Midhun Xavier

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This paper introduces a method to verify multi-agent systems in industrial control systems using blockchain technology. The proposed solution enables to record and verify each process that occurs while generating a customized product using Ethereum-based smart contracts. Node-Red software agents are developed with the help of semantic web technologies, and these software agents interact with IEC 61499 function blocks to execute the processes. The agent associated with each mechatronic component and its controller can communicate with the blockchain to record various events that occur during each process, and the latter smart contract helps to verify these process orders of the customized product.

Keywords: blockchain, Ethereum, node-red, IEC 61499, multi-agent system, MQTT

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Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Vineet Jain, Rajesh Chouhan

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Traffic management is one of the gigantic issue in most of the urban roads in al-most all metropolitan cities in India. Speed is one of the critical traffic parameters for effective Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) implementation as it decides the arrival rate of vehicles on an intersection which are majorly the point of con-gestions. The study aimed to leverage Machine Learning (ML) models to produce precise predictions of speed on urban roadway links. The research objective was to assess how categorized traffic volume and road width, serving as variables, in-fluence speed prediction. Four tree-based regression models namely: Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and Extreme Gradient Boost (XGB)are employed for this purpose. The models' performances were validated using test data, and the results demonstrate that Random Forest surpasses other machine learning techniques and a conventional utility theory-based model in speed prediction. The study is useful for managing the urban roadway network performance under mixed traffic conditions and effective implementation of ITS.

Keywords: stream speed, urban roads, machine learning, traffic flow

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Authors: A. H. Jagaba, Musa Babayo, Ab Aziz Abdul Latiff, Sule Abubakar, I. M. Lawal, Isa Zubairu, M. A. Nasara

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Wastewater containing heavy metals is of extreme importance globally because of its potential threat to both the aquatic ecosystem and the soil environment. Heavy metal is hazardous even at low concentration and thereby causing various forms of diseases. One method which has been tested and found to be effective for heavy metals removal is coagulation-flocculation. For the coagulation process of POME obtained from Pertubuhan Peladang Negeri Johor (PPNJ), Oil Palm Mill Company located in Kahang area of Kluang, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia, diffèrent coagulants would be used to absorb and then separate the metals from wastewater. The determination of heavy metals concentration in POME was carried out using an inductively coupled plasma (ICP) and an Atomic Absorption Spectrometer (AAS). Results of the study showed that alum coagulant was successful in effectively reducing Cu, Cd, and Mn from 0.840 mg/l, 0.00509 mg/l and 8.191 mg/l to as low as 0.107 mg/l, 0.000270 mg/l and 0.612 mg/l respectively. All were obtained at a dose of 1000 mg/l. 1000 mg/l dose of ferric chloride reduced Pb concentration from 0.0248 mg/l to 0.00151 mg/l. Chitosan was best at reducing Fe and Zn from 62.91 mg/l and 3.616 mg/l to 6.003 mg/l and 0.595 mg/l all at a dose of 400 mg/l.

Keywords: palm oil mill effluent, coagulation, heavy metals, Pertubuhan Peladang Negeri Johor, Malaysia

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Authors: Susana Almeida

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The right to adequate food is a human right protected under several international human rights treaties of universal or regional application. In addition, this social right is – as we intend to demonstrate – guaranteed under the Portuguese Constitution. Therefore, in order to assure the protection of this right, the Portuguese State must not only abstain from interfering with this human right (negative obligation) but also take action to secure the human right to adequate food (positive obligation). In this context, the Portuguese State has developed several governmental policies, such as taxing sugary drinks, setting the maximum amount of salt in the bread or creating the National Program for the Promotion of Healthy Food. Nevertheless, we intend to demonstrate that special attention should be given to advertising, as advertisements have an extreme influence on the consumers' decisions and hence on the food decisions. In this paper, besides explaining the cross construction of the human right to adequate food, we aim to examine the Advertising Portuguese Code and to study the several provisions that could be held by the Portuguese consumer to challenge some advertisements due to the violation of the right to health and the right to adequate food. Moreover, having in mind the influence of advertising on the food decisions and the serious problems that unhealthy food may bring (e.g., child obesity), one should ask if this legal framework should not be reviewed in order to lay out some restrictions on advertising, namely setting advices like in alcohol advertisements.

Keywords: advertising code, consumer law, right to adequate food, social human right

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Authors: V. Fuis, P. Janicek, T. Navrat

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The global solved problem is the calculation of the parameters of ceramic material from a set of destruction tests of ceramic heads of total hip joint endoprosthesis. The standard way of calculation of the material parameters consists in carrying out a set of 3 or 4 point bending tests of specimens cut out from parts of the ceramic material to be analysed. In case of ceramic heads, it is not possible to cut out specimens of required dimensions because the heads are too small (if the cut out specimens were smaller than the normalized ones, the material parameters derived from them would exhibit higher strength values than those which the given ceramic material really has). A special destruction device for heads destruction was designed and the solved local problem is the modification of this destructive device based on the analysis of tensile stress in the head for two different values of the depth of the conical hole in the head. The goal of device modification is a shift of the location with extreme value of 1 max from the region of head’s hole bottom to its opening. This modification will increase the credibility of the obtained material properties of bio ceramics, which will be determined from a set of head destructions using the Weibull weakest link theory.

Keywords: ceramic heads, depth of the conical hole, destruction test, material parameters, principal stress, total hip joint endoprosthesis

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Authors: Takele Nemomsa, Girma Mamo, Tesfaye Balemi

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Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or variance of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. In Ethiopia; Maize production in relation to climate change at regional and sub- regional scales have not been studied in detail. Thus, this study was aimed to analyse the impact of climate change on maize yield in Ambo Districts, Central Ethiopia. To this effect, weather data, soil data and maize experimental data for Arganne hybrid were used. APSIM software was used to investigate the response of maize (Zea mays) yield to different agronomic management practices using current and future (2020s–2080s) climate data. The climate change projections data which were downscaled using SDSM were used as input of climate data for the impact analysis. Compared to agronomic practices the impact of climate change on Arganne in Central Ethiopia is minute. However, within 2020s-2080s in Ambo area; the yield of Arganne hybrid is projected to reduce by 1.06% to 2.02%, and in 2050s it is projected to reduce by 1.56 While in 2080s; it is projected to increase by 1.03% to 2.07%. Thus, to adapt to the changing climate; farmers should consider increasing plant density and fertilizer rate per hectare.

Keywords: APSIM, downscaling, response, SDSM

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Authors: Cristiane C. B. Alves, Livia Eisler, Gustavo Mota, Kurt Faltin Jr., Cristina L. F. Ortolani

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The correct positioning of the brackets is essential for the success of orthodontic treatment. Indirect bracket placing technique has the main objective of eliminating the positioning errors, which commonly occur in the technique of direct system of brackets. The objective of this study is to demonstrate that the exact positioning of the brackets is of extreme relevance for the success of the treatment. The present work shows a case report of an adult female patient who attended the clinic with the complaint of being in orthodontic treatment for more than 5 years without noticing any progress. As a result of the intra-oral clinical examination and documentation analysis, a class III malocclusion, an anterior open bite, and absence of all third molars and first upper and lower bilateral premolars were observed. For the treatment, the indirect bonding technique with self-ligating ceramic braces was applied. The preparation of the trays was done after the intraoral digital scanning and printing of models with a 3D printer. Brackets were positioned virtually, using a specialized software. After twelve months of treatment, correction of the malocclusion was observed, as well as the closing of the anterior open bite. It is concluded that the adequate and precise positioning of brackets is necessary for a successful treatment.

Keywords: anterior open-bite, CAD/CAM, orthodontics, malocclusion, angle class III

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Authors: Robert Gilliland

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In any organization, a potential issue can arise and become a problem when management deviates from the standard norms set in the system development process of an IT system and the policies that pertain to it. In these instances, cybersecurity is a big challenge that organizations have to face in safeguarding the data that they generate and use. When a new idea, task, or process begins, specific standards must be followed, along with the policies and procedures that ensure the safeguard of data in the information system within the company. A good IT Strategy and Policy should have individuals who are in charge of overseeing the design, development, implementation, and auditing of these policies. Auditors are people who check to make sure that the issue conforms with the plan that is in place. Management has the ability through the role of the manager to potentially abuse power is given and to direct specific ideas, events, projects, and outcomes that are contrary to the vision or goals of the company.

Keywords: strategic policy, policy management, new policy, strategic planning

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Authors: Muhammad Noor Ul Ane, Dong-Soon Kim, Myron P. Zalucki

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Models can be useful to help understand population dynamics of insects under diverse environmental conditions and in developing strategies to manage pest species better. Adult longevity and fecundity of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) were evaluated against a wide range of constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 37.5ᵒC). The modified Sharpe and DeMichele model described adult aging rate and was used to estimate adult physiological age. Maximum fecundity of H. armigera was 973 egg/female at 25ᵒC decreasing to 72 eggs/female at 37.5ᵒC. The relationship between adult fecundity and temperature was well described by an extreme value function. Age-specific cumulative oviposition rate and age-specific survival rate were well described by a two-parameter Weibull function and sigmoid function, respectively. An oviposition model was developed using three temperature-dependent components: total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate. The oviposition model was validated against independent field data and described the field occurrence pattern of egg population of H. armigera very well. Our model should be a useful component for population modeling of H. armigera and can be independently used for the timing of sprays in management programs of this key pest species.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, life table, temperature-dependent adult development, temperature-dependent fecundity

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Authors: Amir H. Farivarrad, Kiarash M. Dolatshahi

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During earthquake events, aftershocks can significantly increase the probability of collapse of buildings, especially for those with induced damages during the mainshock. In this paper, a practical approach is proposed for seismic rehabilitation of mainshock-damaged buildings that can be easily implemented within few days after the mainshock. To show the efficacy of the proposed method, a case study nine story steel moment frame building is chosen which was designed to pre-Northridge codes. The collapse fragility curve for the aftershock is presented for both the retrofitted and non-retrofitted structures. Comparison of the collapse fragility curves shows that the proposed method is indeed applicable to reduce the seismic collapse risk.

Keywords: aftershock, the collapse fragility curve, seismic rehabilitation, seismic retrofitting

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Authors: Eric Shannon, Mark J. McGuire, John P. Parmigiani

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A hazard associated with the use of timber harvesters is chain shot. Harvester saw chain is subjected to large dynamic mechanical stresses which can cause it to fracture. The resulting open loop of saw chain can fracture a second time and create a projectile consisting of several saw-chain links referred to as a chain shot. Its high kinetic energy enables it to penetrate operator enclosures and be a significant hazard. Accurate data on projectile composition, mass, and speed are needed for the design of both operator enclosures resistant to projectile penetration and for saw chain resistant to fracture. The work presented here contributes to providing this data through the use of a test machine designed and built at Oregon State University. The machine’s enclosure is a standard shipping container. To safely contain any anticipated chain shot, the container was lined with both 9.5 mm AR500 steel plates and 50 mm high-density polyethylene (HDPE). During normal operation, projectiles are captured virtually undamaged in the HDPE enabling subsequent analysis. Standard harvester components are used for bar mounting and chain tensioning. Standard guide bars and saw chains are used. An electric motor with flywheel drives the system. Testing procedures follow ISO Standard 11837. Chain speed at break was approximately 45.5 m/s. Data was collected using both a 75 cm solid bar (Oregon 752HSFB149) and 90 cm solid bar (Oregon 902HSFB149). Saw chains used were 89 Drive Link .404”-18HX loops made from factory spools. Standard 16-tooth sprockets were used. Projectile speed was measured using both a high-speed camera and a chronograph. Both rotational and translational kinetic energy are calculated. For this study 50 chain shot events were executed. Results showed that projectiles consisted of a variety combinations of drive links, tie straps, and cutter links. Most common (occurring in 60% of the events) was a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link combination having a mass of approximately 10.33 g. Projectile mass varied from a minimum of 2.99 g corresponding to a drive link only to a maximum of 18.91 g corresponding to a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link / cutter-link / drive-link combination. Projectile translational speed was measured to be approximately 270 m/s and rotational speed of approximately 14000 r/s. The calculated translational and rotational kinetic energy magnitudes each average over 600 J. This study provides useful information for both timber harvester manufacturers and saw chain manufacturers to design products that reduce the hazards associated with timber harvesting.

Keywords: chain shot, timber harvesters, safety, testing

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Rufus Temidayo Akinnubi, M. O. Adeniyi

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Existing diurnal air temperature models simulate night time air temperature over Nigeria with high biases. An improved parameterization is presented for modeling the diurnal pattern of air temperature (Ta) which is applicable in the calculation of turbulent heat fluxes in Global climate models, based on Nigeria Micrometeorological Experimental site (NIMEX) surface layer observations. Five diurnal Ta models for estimating hourly Ta from daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean air temperature were validated using root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean Error Bias (MBE) and scatter graphs. The original Fourier series model showed better performance for unstable air temperature parameterizations while the stable Ta was strongly overestimated with a large error. The model was improved with the inclusion of the atmospheric cooling rate that accounts for the temperature inversion that occurs during the nocturnal boundary layer condition. The MBE and RMSE estimated by the modified Fourier series model reduced by 4.45 oC and 3.12 oC during the transitional period from dry to wet stable atmospheric conditions. The modified Fourier series model gave good estimation of the diurnal weather patterns of Ta when compared with other existing models for a tropical environment.

Keywords: air temperature, mean bias error, Fourier series analysis, surface energy balance,

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Authors: Joseph Thomas Eghwerido, Julian I. Mbegbu

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In modelling environment processes, we apply multidisciplinary knowledge to explain, explore and predict the Earth's response to natural human-induced environmental changes. Thus, the analysis of spatial-time ecological and environmental studies, the spatial parameters of interest are always heterogeneous. This often negates the assumption of stationarity. Hence, the dispersion of the transportation of atmospheric pollutants, landscape or topographic effect, weather patterns depends on a good estimate of spatial covariance. The generalized linear mixed model, although linear in the expected value parameters, its likelihood varies nonlinearly as a function of the covariance parameters. As a consequence, computing estimates for a linear mixed model requires the iterative solution of a system of simultaneous nonlinear equations. In other to predict the variables at unsampled locations, we need to know the estimate of the present sampled variables. The geostatistical methods for solving this spatial problem assume covariance stationarity (locally defined covariance) and uniform in space; which is not apparently valid because spatial processes often exhibit nonstationary covariance. Hence, they have globally defined covariance. We shall consider different existing methods of solutions of spatial covariance of a space-time processes at unsampled locations. This stationary covariance changes with locations for multiple time set with some asymptotic properties.

Keywords: parametric, nonstationary, Kernel, Kriging

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Authors: Abhijit Pattnayak, Abhijith N.V, Deepak Kumar, Jayant Jain, Vijay Chaudhry

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Hard and dense ceramic coatings deposited on the surface provide the ideal solution to the poor tribological properties exhibited by some popular stainless steels like EN-36, 17-4PH, etc. These steels are widely used in nuclear, fertilizer, food processing, and marine industries under extreme environmental conditions. The present study focuses on the development of Al₂O₃-CeO₂-rGO-based coatings on the surface of 17-4PH steel using High-Velocity Oxygen Flame (HVOF) thermal spray process. The coating is developed using an oxyacetylene flame. Further, we report the physical (Density, Surface roughness, Surface energetics), Metallurgical (Scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, Raman), Mechanical (Hardness(Vickers and Nano Hard-ness)), Tribological (Wear, Scratch hardness) and Chemical (corrosion) characterization of both As-sprayed coating and the Substrate (17-4 PH steel). The comparison of the properties will help us to understand the microstructure-property relationship of the coating and reveal the necessity and challenges of such coatings.

Keywords: thermal spray process, HVOF, ceramic coating, hardness, wear, corrosion

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Authors: Hargunjeet Shergill, Palwinder Singh

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The present paper analyzes the lack of teachers' awareness and knowledge regarding the Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in the college students. Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder causes individuals to consistently display extreme inattention, impulsivity and in many cases hyperactivity as a result of the physiological differences of the brain. Teachers have a formative influence on their students and can play a key role in identifying and supporting students with Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Despite the pervasiveness and salience of this disorder, educators at college continue to labor under a number of misconceptions about the nature of ADHD. In order to fulfill this important role, it is imperative for teachers to have explicit knowledge about this disorder. ADHD in college students remains the most under-recognized and undertreated mental health condition. The overall aim of this study is to investigate teachers’ knowledge and misconceptions of ADHD with a particular focus on recognition, assessment and management of ADHD in adult college students. It designed to assess the college teachers' knowledge, opinions, and experience related to the diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and by maintaining open lines of communication with the students and understanding some key elements that can affect students’ overall growth and ability. The discussion focuses on the value of the role of teachers and their relationship with each college student dealing with ADHD.

Keywords: attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, development of ADHD, diagnostic criteria, role of teachers

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Authors: Ahmed Abdallatif

Abstract:

Background: Patients with malignant germ cell tumors have age distribution in two peaks, with the first one during infancy and the second after the onset of puberty. Gonadal germ cell tumors are the most common malignant ovarian tumor in females aged below twenty years. Sacrococcygeal and retroperitoneal abdominal tumors usually presents in a large size before the onset of symptoms. Methods: Patients with pediatric germ cell tumors presenting to Children’s Cancer Hospital Egypt and National Cancer Institute Egypt from January 2008 to June 2011 Patients underwent stratification according to risk into low, intermediate and high risk groups according to children oncology group classification. Objectives: Assessment of the clinicopathologic features of all cases of pediatric germ cell tumors and classification of malignant cases according to their stage, and the primary site to low, intermediate and high risk patients. Evaluation of surgical management in each group of patients focusing on surgical approach, the extent of surgical resection according to each site, ability to achieve complete surgical resection and perioperative complications. Finally, determination of the three years overall and disease-free survival in different groups and the relation to different prognostic factors including the extent of surgical resection. Results: Out of 131 cases surgically explored only 26 cases had re exploration with 8 cases explored for residual disease 9 cases for remote recurrence or metastatic disease and the other 9 cases for other complications. Patients with low risk kept under follow up after surgery, out of those of low risk group (48 patients) only 8 patients (16.5%) shifted to intermediate risk. There were 20 patients (14.6%) diagnosed as intermediate risk received 3 cycles of compressed (Cisplatin, Etoposide and Bleomycin) and all high risk group patients 69patients (50.4%) received chemotherapy. Stage of disease was strongly and significantly related to overall survival with a poorer survival in late stages (stage IV) as compared to earlier stages. Conclusion: Overall survival rate at 3 three years was (76.7% ± 5.4, 3) years EFS was (77.8 % ±4.0), however 3 years DFS was much better (89.8 ± 3.4) in whole study group with ovarian tumors had significantly higher Overall survival (90% ± 5.1). Event Free Survival analysis showed that Male gender was 3 times likely to have bad events than females. Patients who underwent incomplete resection were 4 times more than patients with complete resection to have bad events. Disease free survival analysis showed that Patients who underwent incomplete surgery were 18.8 times liable for recurrence compared to those who underwent complete surgery, and patients who were exposed to re-excision were 21 times more prone to recurrence compared to other patients.

Keywords: extragonadal, germ cell tumors, gonadal, pediatric

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Authors: Abdelaziz Ghrib, Samir Hattali, Mouloud Ghrib, Mohamed Lamine Aouissia, David Ruch

Abstract:

In the present study, the solid solutions with a chemical composition of Zr0.8Y0.2-xLaxO2 (x=0, 0.1, 0.2) were synthesized via two routes, by hydrothermal method using NaOH as precipitating agent at 230°C for 15h and by the sol–gel process using citric acid as complexing agent. Compounds have been characterized by powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Thermo gravimetric Analysis (TGA) and Differential Thermal Analysis (DTA) techniques for appropriate characterization of the distinct thermal events occurring during synthesis. All the compounds crystallize in cubic fluorite structure, as indicated by X-ray diffraction studie. The microstructure of oxides synthesized by sol-gel showed porosity that increased with the lanthanum La3+ contents compared to hydrothermal method which gives a single crystal oxide.

Keywords: oxide, hydrothermal, rare earth, solubility, sol-gel, ternary mixture

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Authors: Lina Lukusa, Ulrike Rivett

Abstract:

Poor water management can increase the extreme pressure already faced by water scarcity. Unless water management is addressed holistically, water quality and quantity will continue to degrade. A holistic approach to water management named Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) has thus been created to facilitate the effective management of water. Traditionally, water management has employed a linear design approach, while WSUD requires a systematic, cyclical approach. In simple terms, WSUD assumes that everything is connected. Hence, it is critical for different stakeholders involved in WSUD to engage and reach a consensus on a solution. However, many stakeholders in WSUD have conflicting interests. Using the soft system methodology (SSM), developed by Peter Checkland, as a problem-solving method, decision-makers can understand this problematic situation from different world views. The SSM addresses ill and complex challenging situations involving human activities in a complex structured scenario. This paper demonstrates how SSM can be applied to understand the complexity of stakeholder engagement in WSUD. The paper concludes that SSM is an adequate solution to understand a complex problem better and then propose efficient solutions.

Keywords: co-design, ICT platform, soft systems methodology, water sensitive urban design

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Authors: Jan Muhammad, Saad Malik, Fadia W. Al-Azawi, Ali Imran

Abstract:

In the era of climate variability, rising temperatures are the most significant aspect. In this study PRECIS model data and observed data are used for assessing the temperature change scenarios of Sindh province during the first half of present century. Observed data from various meteorological stations of Sindh are the primary source for temperature change detection. The current scenario (1961–1990) and the future one (2010-2050) are acted by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 * 25 km. Regional Climate Model (RCM) can yield reasonably suitable projections to be used for climate-scenario. The main objective of the study is to map the simulated temperature as obtained from climate model-PRECIS and their comparison with observed temperatures. The analysis is done on all the districts of Sindh in order to have a more precise picture of temperature change scenarios. According to results the temperature is likely to increases by 1.5 - 2.1°C by 2050, compared to the baseline temperature of 1961-1990. The model assesses more accurate values in northern districts of Sindh as compared to the coastal belt of Sindh. All the district of the Sindh province exhibit an increasing trend in the mean temperature scenarios and each decade seems to be warmer than the previous one. An understanding of the change in temperatures is very vital for various sectors such as weather forecasting, water, agriculture, and health, etc.

Keywords: PRECIS Model, real observed data, Arc GIS, interpolation techniques

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Authors: John Christian Lequiron, Gerry Bagtasa, Olivia Cabrera, Leoncio Amadore, Tolentino Moya

Abstract:

Changes in air surface temperature play an important role in the Philippine’s economy, industry, health, and food production. While increasing global mean temperature in the recent several decades has prompted a number of climate change and variability studies in the Philippines, most studies still focus on rainfall and tropical cyclones. This study aims to investigate the trend and variability of observed air surface temperature and determine its major influencing factor/s in the Philippines. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to monthly mean temperature of 17 synoptic stations covering 56 years from 1960 to 2015 and a mean change of 0.58 °C or a positive trend of 0.0105 °C/year (p < 0.05) was found. In addition, wavelet decomposition was used to determine the frequency of temperature variability show a 12-month, 30-80-month and more than 120-month cycles. This indicates strong annual variations, interannual variations that coincide with ENSO events, and interdecadal variations that are attributed to PDO and CO2 concentrations. Air surface temperature was also correlated with smoothed sunspot number and galactic cosmic rays, the results show a low to no effect. The influence of ENSO teleconnection on temperature, wind pattern, cloud cover, and outgoing longwave radiation on different ENSO phases had significant effects on regional temperature variability. Particularly, an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow east of the Philippines during the peak and decay phase of El Niño (La Niña) events leads to the advection of warm southeasterly (cold northeasterly) air mass over the country. Furthermore, an apparent increasing cloud cover trend is observed over the West Philippine Sea including portions of the Philippines, and this is believed to lessen the effect of the increasing air surface temperature. However, relative humidity was also found to be increasing especially on the central part of the country, which results in a high positive trend of heat index, exacerbating the effects on human discomfort. Finally, an assessment of gridded temperature datasets was done to look at the viability of using three high-resolution datasets in future climate analysis and model calibration and verification. Several error statistics (i.e. Pearson correlation, Bias, MAE, and RMSE) were used for this validation. Results show that gridded temperature datasets generally follows the observed surface temperature change and anomalies. In addition, it is more representative of regional temperature rather than a substitute to station-observed air temperature.

Keywords: air surface temperature, carbon dioxide, ENSO, galactic cosmic rays, smoothed sunspot number

Procedia PDF Downloads 305