Search results for: moral hazard incentives
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1381

Search results for: moral hazard incentives

91 Digital Skepticism In A Legal Philosophical Approach

Authors: dr. Bendes Ákos

Abstract:

Digital skepticism, a critical stance towards digital technology and its pervasive influence on society, presents significant challenges when analyzed from a legal philosophical perspective. This abstract aims to explore the intersection of digital skepticism and legal philosophy, emphasizing the implications for justice, rights, and the rule of law in the digital age. Digital skepticism arises from concerns about privacy, security, and the ethical implications of digital technology. It questions the extent to which digital advancements enhance or undermine fundamental human values. Legal philosophy, which interrogates the foundations and purposes of law, provides a framework for examining these concerns critically. One key area where digital skepticism and legal philosophy intersect is in the realm of privacy. Digital technologies, particularly data collection and surveillance mechanisms, pose substantial threats to individual privacy. Legal philosophers must grapple with questions about the limits of state power and the protection of personal autonomy. They must consider how traditional legal principles, such as the right to privacy, can be adapted or reinterpreted in light of new technological realities. Security is another critical concern. Digital skepticism highlights vulnerabilities in cybersecurity and the potential for malicious activities, such as hacking and cybercrime, to disrupt legal systems and societal order. Legal philosophy must address how laws can evolve to protect against these new forms of threats while balancing security with civil liberties. Ethics plays a central role in this discourse. Digital technologies raise ethical dilemmas, such as the development and use of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms that may perpetuate biases or make decisions without human oversight. Legal philosophers must evaluate the moral responsibilities of those who design and implement these technologies and consider the implications for justice and fairness. Furthermore, digital skepticism prompts a reevaluation of the concept of the rule of law. In an increasingly digital world, maintaining transparency, accountability, and fairness becomes more complex. Legal philosophers must explore how legal frameworks can ensure that digital technologies serve the public good and do not entrench power imbalances or erode democratic principles. Finally, the intersection of digital skepticism and legal philosophy has practical implications for policy-making. Legal scholars and practitioners must work collaboratively to develop regulations and guidelines that address the challenges posed by digital technology. This includes crafting laws that protect individual rights, ensure security, and promote ethical standards in technology development and deployment. In conclusion, digital skepticism provides a crucial lens for examining the impact of digital technology on law and society. A legal philosophical approach offers valuable insights into how legal systems can adapt to protect fundamental values in the digital age. By addressing privacy, security, ethics, and the rule of law, legal philosophers can help shape a future where digital advancements enhance, rather than undermine, justice and human dignity.

Keywords: legal philosophy, privacy, security, ethics, digital skepticism

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90 EQMamba - Method Suggestion for Earthquake Detection and Phase Picking

Authors: Noga Bregman

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Accurate and efficient earthquake detection and phase picking are crucial for seismic hazard assessment and emergency response. This study introduces EQMamba, a deep-learning method that combines the strengths of the Earthquake Transformer and the Mamba model for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking. EQMamba leverages the computational efficiency of Mamba layers to process longer seismic sequences while maintaining a manageable model size. The proposed architecture integrates convolutional neural networks (CNNs), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and Mamba blocks. The model employs an encoder composed of convolutional layers and max pooling operations, followed by residual CNN blocks for feature extraction. Mamba blocks are applied to the outputs of BiLSTM blocks, efficiently capturing long-range dependencies in seismic data. Separate decoders are used for earthquake detection, P-wave picking, and S-wave picking. We trained and evaluated EQMamba using a subset of the STEAD dataset, a comprehensive collection of labeled seismic waveforms. The model was trained using a weighted combination of binary cross-entropy loss functions for each task, with the Adam optimizer and a scheduled learning rate. Data augmentation techniques were employed to enhance the model's robustness. Performance comparisons were conducted between EQMamba and the EQTransformer over 20 epochs on this modest-sized STEAD subset. Results demonstrate that EQMamba achieves superior performance, with higher F1 scores and faster convergence compared to EQTransformer. EQMamba reached F1 scores of 0.8 by epoch 5 and maintained higher scores throughout training. The model also exhibited more stable validation performance, indicating good generalization capabilities. While both models showed lower accuracy in phase-picking tasks compared to detection, EQMamba's overall performance suggests significant potential for improving seismic data analysis. The rapid convergence and superior F1 scores of EQMamba, even on a modest-sized dataset, indicate promising scalability for larger datasets. This study contributes to the field of earthquake engineering by presenting a computationally efficient and accurate method for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking. Future work will focus on incorporating Mamba layers into the P and S pickers and further optimizing the architecture for seismic data specifics. The EQMamba method holds the potential for enhancing real-time earthquake monitoring systems and improving our understanding of seismic events.

Keywords: earthquake, detection, phase picking, s waves, p waves, transformer, deep learning, seismic waves

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89 Regulating the Ottomans on Turkish Television and the Making of Good Citizens

Authors: Chien Yang Erdem

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This paper takes up the proliferating historical dramas and children’s programs featuring the Ottoman-Islamic legacy on Turkish television as a locus where the processes of subjectification take place. A critical analysis of this emergent cultural phenomenon reveals an alliance of neoliberal and neoconservative political rationalities based on which the Turkish media is restructured to transform society. The existing debates have focused on how the Ottoman historical dramas manifest the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi) neo-Ottomanist ideology and foreign policy. However, this approach tends to overlook the more complex relationship between the media, government, and society. Employing Michel Foucault’s notion of 'technologies of the self,' this paper aims to examine the governing practices that are deployed to regulate the media and to transform individual citizens into governable subjects in contemporary Turkey. First, through a brief discussion of recent development of the Turkish media towards an authoritarian model, the paper suggests that the relation between the Ottoman television drama and the political subject in question cannot be adequately examined without taking into account the force of the market. Second, by focusing on the managerial restructuring of the Turkish Television and Radio Corporation (Türkiye Radyo ve Televizyon Kurumu), the paper aims to illustrate the rationale and process through which the Turkish media sector is transformed into an integral part of the free market where the government becomes a key actor. The paper contends that this new sphere of free market is organized in a way that enables direct interference of the government and divides media practitioners and consumers into opposing categories through their own participation in the media market. On the one hand, a 'free subject' is constituted based on the premise that the market is a sphere where individuals are obliged to exercise their right to freedom (of choice, lifestyle, and expression). On the other hand, this 'free subject' is increasingly subjugated to such disciplinary practices as censorship for being on the wrong side of the government. Finally, the paper examines the relation between the restructured Turkish media market and the proliferation of Ottoman television drama in the 2010s. The study maintains that the reorganization of the media market has produced a condition where private sector is encouraged to take an active role in reviving Turkey’s Ottoman-Islamic cultural heritage and promulgating moral-religious values. Paying specific attention to the controversial case of Magnificent Century (Muhteşem Yüzyıl) in contrast with TRT’s Ottoman historical drama and children’s programs, the paper aims to identify the ways in which individual citizens are directed to conduct themselves as a virtuous citizenry. It is through the double movement between the governing practices associated with the media market and those concerning the making of a 'conservative generation' that a subject of citizenry of new Turkey is constituted.

Keywords: neoconservatism, neoliberalism, ottoman historical drama, technologies of the self, Turkish television

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88 Urban Design as a Tool in Disaster Resilience and Urban Hazard Mitigation: Case of Cochin, Kerala, India

Authors: Vinu Elias Jacob, Manoj Kumar Kini

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Disasters of all types are occurring more frequently and are becoming more costly than ever due to various manmade factors including climate change. A better utilisation of the concept of governance and management within disaster risk reduction is inevitable and of utmost importance. There is a need to explore the role of pre- and post-disaster public policies. The role of urban planning/design in shaping the opportunities of households, individuals and collectively the settlements for achieving recovery has to be explored. Governance strategies that can better support the integration of disaster risk reduction and management has to be examined. The main aim is to thereby build the resilience of individuals and communities and thus, the states too. Resilience is a term that is usually linked to the fields of disaster management and mitigation, but today has become an integral part of planning and design of cities. Disaster resilience broadly describes the ability of an individual or community to 'bounce back' from disaster impacts, through improved mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. The growing population of the world has resulted in the inflow and use of resources, creating a pressure on the various natural systems and inequity in the distribution of resources. This makes cities vulnerable to multiple attacks by both natural and man-made disasters. Each urban area needs elaborate studies and study based strategies to proceed in the discussed direction. Cochin in Kerala is the fastest and largest growing city with a population of more than 26 lakhs. The main concern that has been looked into in this paper is making cities resilient by designing a framework of strategies based on urban design principles for an immediate response system especially focussing on the city of Cochin, Kerala, India. The paper discusses, understanding the spatial transformations due to disasters and the role of spatial planning in the context of significant disasters. The paper also aims in developing a model taking into consideration of various factors such as land use, open spaces, transportation networks, physical and social infrastructure, building design, and density and ecology that can be implemented in any city of any context. Guidelines are made for the smooth evacuation of people through hassle-free transport networks, protecting vulnerable areas in the city, providing adequate open spaces for shelters and gatherings, making available basic amenities to affected population within reachable distance, etc. by using the tool of urban design. Strategies at the city level and neighbourhood level have been developed with inferences from vulnerability analysis and case studies.

Keywords: disaster management, resilience, spatial planning, spatial transformations

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87 Microbial Contamination of Cell Phones of Health Care Workers: Case Study in Mampong Municipal Government Hospital, Ghana

Authors: Francis Gyapong, Denis Yar

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The use of cell phones has become an indispensable tool in the hospital's settings. Cell phones are used in hospitals without restrictions regardless of their unknown microbial load. However, the indiscriminate use of mobile devices, especially at health facilities, can act as a vehicle for transmitting pathogenic bacteria and other microorganisms. These potential pathogens become exogenous sources of infection for the patients and are also a potential health hazard for self and as well as family members. These are a growing problem in many health care institutions. Innovations in mobile communication have led to better patient care in diabetes, asthma, and increased in vaccine uptake via SMS. Notwithstanding, the use of cell phones can be a great potential source for nosocomial infections. Many studies reported heavy microbial contamination of cell phones among healthcare workers and communities. However, limited studies have been reported in our region on bacterial contamination on cell phones among healthcare workers. This study assessed microbial contamination of cell phones of health care workers (HCWs) at the Mampong Municipal Government Hospital (MMGH), Ghana. A cross-sectional design was used to characterize bacterial microflora on cell phones of HCWs at the MMGH. A total of thirty-five (35) swab samples of cell phones of HCWs at the Laboratory, Dental Unit, Children’s Ward, Theater and Male ward were randomly collected for laboratory examinations. A suspension of the swab samples was each streak on blood and MacConkey agar and incubated at 37℃ for 48 hours. Bacterial isolates were identified using appropriate laboratory and biochemical tests. Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion method was used to determine the antimicrobial sensitivity tests of the isolates. Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 16. All mobile phones sampled were contaminated with one or more bacterial isolates. Cell phones from the Male ward, Dental Unit, Laboratory, Theatre and Children’s ward had at least three different bacterial isolates; 85.7%, 71.4%, 57.1% and 28.6% for both Theater and Children’s ward respectively. Bacterial contaminants identified were Staphylococcus epidermidis (37%), Staphylococcus aureus (26%), E. coli (20%), Bacillus spp. (11%) and Klebsiella spp. (6 %). Except for the Children ward, E. coli was isolated at all study sites and predominant (42.9%) at the Dental Unit while Klebsiella spp. (28.6%) was only isolated at the Children’s ward. Antibiotic sensitivity testing of Staphylococcus aureus indicated that they were highly sensitive to cephalexin (89%) tetracycline (80%), gentamycin (75%), lincomycin (70%), ciprofloxacin (67%) and highly resistant to ampicillin (75%). Some of these bacteria isolated are potential pathogens and their presence on cell phones of HCWs could be transmitted to patients and their families. Hence strict hand washing before and after every contact with patient and phone be enforced to reduce the risk of nosocomial infections.

Keywords: mobile phones, bacterial contamination, patients, MMGH

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86 A Correlations Study on Nursing Staff's Shifts Systems, Workplace Fatigue, and Quality of Working Life

Authors: Jui Chen Wu, Ming Yi Hsu

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Background and Purpose: Shift work of nursing staff is inevitable in hospital to provide continuing medical care. However, shift work is considered as a health hazard that may cause physical and psychological problems. Serious workplace fatigue of nursing shift work might impact on family, social and work life, moreover, causes serious reduction of quality of medical care, or even malpractice. This study aims to explore relationships among nursing staff’s shift, workplace fatigue and quality of working life. Method: Structured questionnaires were used in this study to explore relationships among shift work, workplace fatigue and quality of working life in nursing staffs. We recruited 590 nursing staffs in different Community Teaching hospitals in Taiwan. Data analysed by descriptive statistics, single sample t-test, single factor analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient and hierarchical regression, etc. Results: The overall workplace fatigue score is 50.59 points. In further analysis, the score of personal burnout, work-related burnout, over-commitment and client-related burnout are 57.86, 53.83, 45.95 and 44.71. The basic attributes of nursing staff are significantly different from those of workplace fatigue with different ages, licenses, sleeping quality, self-conscious health status, number of care patients of chronic diseases and number of care people in the obstetric ward. The shift variables revealed no significant influence on workplace fatigue during the hierarchical regression analysis. About the analysis on nursing staff’s basic attributes and shift on the quality of working life, descriptive results show that the overall quality of working life of nursing staff is 3.23 points. Comparing the average score of the six aspects, the ranked average score are 3.47 (SD= .43) in interrelationship, 3.40 (SD= .46) in self-actualisation, 3.30 (SD= .40) in self-efficacy, 3.15 (SD= .38) in vocational concept, 3.07 (SD= .37) in work aspects, and 3.02 (SD= .56) in organization aspects. The basic attributes of nursing staff are significantly different from quality of working life in different marriage situations, education level, years of nursing work, occupation area, sleep quality, self-conscious health status and number of care in medical ward. There are significant differences between shift mode and shift rate with the quality of working life. The results of the hierarchical regression analysis reveal that one of the shifts variables 'shift mode' which does affect staff’s quality of working life. The workplace fatigue is negatively correlated with the quality of working life, and the over-commitment in the workplace fatigue is positively related to the vocational concept of the quality of working life. According to the regression analysis of nursing staff’s basic attributes, shift mode, workplace fatigue and quality of working life related shift, the results show that the workplace fatigue has a significant impact on nursing staff’s quality of working life. Conclusion: According to our study, shift work is correlated with workplace fatigue in nursing staffs. This results work as important reference for human resources management in hospitals to establishing a more positive and healthy work arrangement policy.

Keywords: nursing staff, shift, workplace fatigue, quality of working life

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85 The Connection between Qom Seminaries and Interpretation of Sacred Sources in Ja‘farī Jurisprudence

Authors: Sumeyra Yakar, Emine Enise Yakar

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Iran presents itself as Islamic, first and foremost, and thus, it can be said that sharī’a is the political and social centre of the states. However, actual practice reveals distinct interpretations and understandings of the sharī’a. The research can be categorised inside the framework of logic in Islamic law and theology. The first task of this paper will be to identify how the sharī’a is understood in Iran by mapping out how the judges apply the law in their respective jurisdictions. The attention will then move from a simple description of the diversity of sharī’a understandings to the question of how that diversity relates to social concepts and cultures. This, of course, necessitates a brief exploration of Iran’s historical background which will also allow for an understanding of sectarian influences and the significance of certain events. The main purpose is to reach an understanding of the process of applying sources to formulate solutions which are in accordance with sharī’a and how religious education is pursued in order to become official judges. Ultimately, this essay will explore the attempts to gain an understanding by linking the practices to the secondary sources of Islamic law. It is important to emphasise that these cultural components of Islamic law must be compatible with the aims of Islamic law and their fundamental sources. The sharī’a consists of more than just legal doctrines (fiqh) and interpretive activities (ijtihād). Its contextual and theoretical framework reveals a close relationship with cultural and historical elements of society. This has meant that its traditional reproduction over time has relied on being embedded into a highly particular form of life. Thus, as acknowledged by pre-modern jurists, the sharī’a encompasses a comprehensive approach to the requirements of justice in legal, historical and political contexts. In theological and legal areas that have the specific authority of tradition, Iran adheres to Shīa’ doctrine, and this explains why the Shīa’ religious establishment maintains a dominant position in matters relating to law and the interpretation of sharī’a. The statements and interpretations of the tradition are distinctly different from sunnī interpretations, and so the use of different sources could be understood as the main reason for the discrepancies in the application of sharī’a between Iran and other Muslim countries. The sharī’a has often accommodated prevailing customs; moreover, it has developed legal mechanisms to all for its adaptation to particular needs and circumstances in society. While jurists may operate within the realm of governance and politics, the moral authority of the sharī’a ensures that these actors legitimate their actions with reference to God’s commands. The Iranian regime enshrines the principle of vilāyāt-i faqīh (guardianship of the jurist) which enables jurists to solve the conflict between law as an ideal system, in theory, and law in practice. The paper aims to show how the religious, educational system works in harmony with the governmental authorities with the concept of vilāyāt-i faqīh in Iran and contributes to the creation of religious custom in the society.

Keywords: guardianship of the jurist (vilāyāt-i faqīh), imitation (taqlīd), seminaries (hawza), Shi’i jurisprudence

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84 Selfie: Redefining Culture of Narcissism

Authors: Junali Deka

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“Pictures speak more than a thousand words”. It is the power of image which can have multiple meanings the way it is read by the viewers. This research article is an outcome of the extensive study of the phenomenon of‘selfie culture’ and dire need of self-constructed virtual identity among youths. In the recent times, there has been a revolutionary change in the concept of photography in terms of both techniques and applications. The popularity of ‘self-portraits’ mainly depend on the temporal space and time created on social networking sites like Facebook, Instagram. With reference to Stuart’s Hall encoding and decoding process, the article studies the behavior of the users who post photographs online. The photographic messages (Roland Barthes) are interpreted differently by different viewers. The notion of ‘self’, ‘self-love and practice of looking (Marita Sturken) and ways of seeing (John Berger) got new definition and dimensional together. After Oscars Night, show host Ellen DeGeneres’s selfie created the most buzz and hype in the social media. The term was judged the word of 2013, and has earned its place in the dictionary. “In November 2013, the word "selfie" was announced as being the "word of the year" by the Oxford English Dictionary. By the end of 2012, Time magazine considered selfie one of the "top 10 buzzwords" of that year; although selfies had existed long before, it was in 2012 that the term "really hit the big time an Australian origin. The present study was carried to understand the concept of ‘selfie-bug’ and the phenomenon it has created among youth (especially students) at large in developing a pseudo-image of its own. The topic was relevant and gave a platform to discuss about the cultural, psychological and sociological implications of selfie in the age of digital technology. At the first level, content analysis of the primary and secondary sources including newspapers articles and online resources was carried out followed by a small online survey conducted with the help of questionnaire to find out the student’s view on selfie and its social and psychological effects. The newspapers reports and online resources confirmed that selfie is a new trend in the digital media and it has redefined the notion of beauty and self-love. The Facebook and Instagram are the major platforms used to express one-self and creation of virtual identity. The findings clearly reflected the active participation of female students in comparison to male students. The study of the photographs of few selected respondents revealed the difference of attitude and image building among male and female users. The study underlines some basic questions about the desire of reconstruction of identity among young generation, such as - are they becoming culturally narcissist; responsible factors for cultural, social and moral changes in the society, psychological and technological effects caused by Smartphone as well, culminating into a big question mark whether the selfie is a social signifier of identity construction.

Keywords: Culture, Narcissist, Photographs, Selfie

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83 Gradient Length Anomaly Analysis for Landslide Vulnerability Analysis of Upper Alaknanda River Basin, Uttarakhand Himalayas, India

Authors: Hasmithaa Neha, Atul Kumar Patidar, Girish Ch Kothyari

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The northward convergence of the Indian plate has a dominating influence over the structural and geomorphic development of the Himalayan region. The highly deformed and complex stratigraphy in the area arises from a confluence of exogenic and endogenetic geological processes. This region frequently experiences natural hazards such as debris flows, flash floods, avalanches, landslides, and earthquakes due to its harsh and steep topography and fragile rock formations. Therefore, remote sensing technique-based examination and real-time monitoring of tectonically sensitive regions may provide crucial early warnings and invaluable data for effective hazard mitigation strategies. In order to identify unusual changes in the river gradients, the current study demonstrates a spatial quantitative geomorphic analysis of the upper Alaknanda River basin, Uttarakhand Himalaya, India, using gradient length anomaly analysis (GLAA). This basin is highly vulnerable to ground creeping and landslides due to the presence of active faults/thrusts, toe-cutting of slopes for road widening, development of heavy engineering projects on the highly sheared bedrock, and periodic earthquakes. The intersecting joint sets developed in the bedrocks have formed wedges that have facilitated the recurrence of several landslides. The main objective of current research is to identify abnormal gradient lengths, indicating potential landslide-prone zones. High-resolution digital elevation data and geospatial techniques are used to perform this analysis. The results of GLAA are corroborated with the historical landslide events and ultimately used for the generation of landslide susceptibility maps of the current study area. The preliminary results indicate that approximately 3.97% of the basin is stable, while about 8.54% is classified as moderately stable and suitable for human habitation. However, roughly 19.89% fall within the zone of moderate vulnerability, 38.06% are classified as vulnerable, and 29% fall within the highly vulnerable zones, posing risks for geohazards, including landslides, glacial avalanches, and earthquakes. This research provides valuable insights into the spatial distribution of landslide-prone areas. It offers a basis for implementing proactive measures for landslide risk reduction, including land-use planning, early warning systems, and infrastructure development techniques.

Keywords: landslide vulnerability, geohazard, GLA, upper Alaknanda Basin, Uttarakhand Himalaya

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82 Polar Bears in Antarctica: An Analysis of Treaty Barriers

Authors: Madison Hall

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The Assisted Colonization of Polar Bears to Antarctica requires a careful analysis of treaties to understand existing legal barriers to Ursus maritimus transport and movement. An absence of land-based migration routes prevent polar bears from accessing southern polar regions on their own. This lack of access is compounded by current treaties which limit human intervention and assistance to ford these physical and legal barriers. In a time of massive planetary extinctions, Assisted Colonization posits that certain endangered species may be prime candidates for relocation to hospitable environments to which they have never previously had access. By analyzing existing treaties, this paper will examine how polar bears are limited in movement by humankind’s legal barriers. International treaties may be considered codified reflections of anthropocentric values of the best knowledge and understanding of an identified problem at a set point in time, as understood through the human lens. Even as human social values and scientific insights evolve, so too must treaties evolve which specify legal frameworks and structures impacting keystone species and related biomes. Due to costs and other myriad difficulties, only a very select number of species will be given this opportunity. While some species move into new regions and are then deemed invasive, Assisted Colonization considers that some assistance may be mandated due to the nature of humankind’s role in climate change. This moral question and ethical imperative against the backdrop of escalating climate impacts, drives the question forward; what is the potential for successfully relocating a select handful of charismatic and ecologically important life forms? Is it possible to reimagine a different, but balanced Antarctic ecosystem? Listed as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, a result of the ongoing loss of critical habitat by melting sea ice, polar bears have limited options for long term survival in the wild. Our current regime for safeguarding animals facing extinction frequently utilizes zoos and their breeding programs, to keep alive the genetic diversity of the species until some future time when reintroduction, somewhere, may be attempted. By exploring the potential for polar bears to be relocated to Antarctica, we must analyze the complex ethical, legal, political, financial, and biological realms, which are the backdrop to framing all questions in this arena. Can we do it? Should we do it? By utilizing an environmental ethics perspective, we propose that the Ecological Commons of the Arctic and Antarctic should not be viewed solely through the lens of human resource management needs. From this perspective, polar bears do not need our permission, they need our assistance. Antarctica therefore represents a second, if imperfect chance, to buy time for polar bears, in a world where polar regimes, not yet fully understood, are themselves quickly changing as a result of climate change.

Keywords: polar bear, climate change, environmental ethics, Arctic, Antarctica, assisted colonization, treaty

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81 Chain Networks on Internationalization of SMEs: Co-Opetition Strategies in Agrifood Sector

Authors: Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Juan C. Pérez-Mesa, Laura Piedra-Muñoz, María C. García-Barranco, Jesús Hernández-Rubio

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The situation in which firms engage in simultaneous cooperation and competition with each other is a phenomenon known as co-opetition. This scenario has received increasing attention in business economics and management analyses. In the domain of supply chain networks and for small and medium-sized enterprises, SMEs, these strategies are of greater relevance given the complex environment of globalization and competition in open markets. These firms face greater challenges regarding technology and access to specific resources due to their limited capabilities and limited market presence. Consequently, alliances and collaborations with both buyers and suppliers prove to be key elements in overcoming these constraints. However, rivalry and competition are also regarded as major factors in successful internationalization processes, as they are drivers for firms to attain a greater degree of specialization and to improve efficiency, for example enabling them to allocate scarce resources optimally and providing incentives for innovation and entrepreneurship. The present work aims to contribute to the literature on SMEs’ internationalization strategies. The sample is constituted by a panel data of marketing firms from the Andalusian food sector and a multivariate regression analysis is developed, measuring variables of co-opetition and international activity. The hierarchical regression equations method has been followed, thus resulting in three estimated models: the first one excluding the variables indicative of channel type, while the latter two include the international retailer chain and wholesaler variable. The findings show that the combination of several factors leads to a complex scenario of inter-organizational relationships of cooperation and competition. In supply chain management analyses, these relationships tend to be classified as either buyer-supplier (vertical level) or supplier-supplier relationships (horizontal level). Several buyers and suppliers tend to participate in supply chain networks, and in which the form of governance (hierarchical and non-hierarchical) influences cooperation and competition strategies. For instance, due to their market power and/or their closeness to the end consumer, some buyers (e.g. large retailers in food markets) can exert an influence on the selection and interaction of several of their intermediate suppliers, thus endowing certain networks in the supply chain with greater stability. This hierarchical influence may in turn allow these suppliers to develop their capabilities (e.g. specialization) to a greater extent. On the other hand, for those suppliers that are outside these networks, this environment of hierarchy, characterized by a “hub firm” or “channel master”, may provide an incentive for developing their co-opetition relationships. These results prove that the analyzed firms have experienced considerable growth in sales to new foreign markets, mainly in Europe, dealing with large retail chains and wholesalers as main buyers. This supply industry is predominantly made up of numerous SMEs, which has implied a certain disadvantage when dealing with the buyers, as negotiations have traditionally been held on an individual basis and in the face of high competition among suppliers. Over recent years, however, cooperation among these marketing firms has become more common, for example regarding R&D, promotion, scheduling of production and sales.

Keywords: co-petition networks, international supply chain, maketing agrifood firms, SMEs strategies

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80 Knowledge Based Software Model for the Management and Treatment of Malaria Patients: A Case of Kalisizo General Hospital

Authors: Mbonigaba Swale

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Malaria is an infection or disease caused by parasites (Plasmodium Falciparum — causes severe Malaria, plasmodium Vivax, Plasmodium Ovale, and Plasmodium Malariae), transmitted by bites of infected anopheles (female) mosquitoes to humans. These vectors comprise of two types in Africa, particularly in Uganda, i.e. anopheles fenestus and Anopheles gambaie (‘example Anopheles arabiensis,,); feeds on man inside the house mainly at dusk, mid-night and dawn and rests indoors and makes them effective transmitters (vectors) of the disease. People in both urban and rural areas have consistently become prone to repetitive attacks of malaria, causing a lot of deaths and significantly increasing the poverty levels of the rural poor. Malaria is a national problem; it causes a lot of maternal pre-natal and antenatal disorders, anemia in pregnant mothers, low birth weights for the newly born, convulsions and epilepsy among the infants. Cumulatively, it kills about one million children every year in sub-Saharan Africa. It has been estimated to account for 25-35% of all outpatient visits, 20-45% of acute hospital admissions and 15-35% of hospital deaths. Uganda is the leading victim country, for which Rakai and Masaka districts are the most affected. So, it is not clear whether these abhorrent situations and episodes of recurrences and failure to cure from the disease are a result of poor diagnosis, prescription and dosing, treatment habits and compliance of the patients to the drugs or the ethical domain of the stake holders in relation to the main stream methodology of malaria management. The research is aimed at offering an alternative approach to manage and deal absolutely with problem by using a knowledge based software model of Artificial Intelligence (Al) that is capable of performing common-sense and cognitive reasoning so as to take decisions like the human brain would do to provide instantaneous expert solutions so as to avoid speculative simulation of the problem during differential diagnosis in the most accurate and literal inferential aspect. This system will assist physicians in many kinds of medical diagnosis, prescribing treatments and doses, and in monitoring patient responses, basing on the body weight and age group of the patient, it will be able to provide instantaneous and timely information options, alternative ways and approaches to influence decision making during case analysis. The computerized system approach, a new model in Uganda termed as “Software Aided Treatment” (SAT) will try to change the moral and ethical approach and influence conduct so as to improve the skills, experience and values (social and ethical) in the administration and management of the disease and drugs (combination therapy and generics) by both the patient and the health worker.

Keywords: knowledge based software, management, treatment, diagnosis

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79 A Critical Evaluation of Occupational Safety and Health Management Systems' Implementation: Case of Mutare Urban Timber Processing Factories, Zimbabwe

Authors: Johanes Mandowa

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The study evaluated the status of Occupational Safety and Health Management Systems’ (OSHMSs) implementation by Mutare urban timber processing factories. A descriptive cross sectional survey method was utilized in the study. Questionnaires, interviews and direct observations were the techniques employed to extract primary data from the respondents. Secondary data was acquired from OSH encyclopedia, OSH journals, newspaper articles, internet, past research papers, African Newsletter on OSH and NSSA On-guard magazines among others. Analysis of data collected was conducted using statistical and descriptive methods. Results revealed an unpleasant low uptake rate (16%) of OSH Management Systems by Mutare urban timber processing factories. On a comparative basis, low implementation levels were more pronounced in small timber processing factories than in large factories. The low uptake rate of OSH Management Systems revealed by the study validates the Government of Zimbabwe and its social partners’ observation that the dismal Zimbabwe OSH performance was largely due to non implementation of safety systems at most workplaces. The results exhibited a relationship between availability of a SHE practitioner in Mutare urban timber processing factories and OSHMS implementation. All respondents and interviewees’ agreed that OSH Management Systems are handy in curbing occupational injuries and diseases. It emerged from the study that the top barriers to implementation of safety systems are lack of adequate financial resources, lack of top management commitment and lack of OSHMS implementation expertise. Key motivators for OSHMSs establishment were cited as provision of adequate resources (76%), strong employee involvement (64%) and strong senior management commitment and involvement (60%). Study results demonstrated that both OSHMSs implementation barriers and motivators affect all Mutare urban timber processing factories irrespective of size. The study recommends enactment of a law by Ministry of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare in consultation with NSSA to make availability of an OSHMS and qualified SHE practitioner mandatory at every workplace. More so, the enacted law should prescribe minimum educational qualification required for one to practice as a SHE practitioner. Ministry of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare and NSSA should also devise incentives such as reduced WCIF premiums for good OSH performance to cushion Mutare urban timber processing factories from OSHMS implementation costs. The study recommends the incorporation of an OSH module in the academic curriculums of all programmes offered at tertiary institutions so as to ensure that graduates who later end up assuming influential management positions in Mutare urban timber processing factories are abreast with the necessity of OSHMSs in preventing occupational injuries and diseases. In the quest to further boost management’s awareness on the importance of OSHMSs, NSSA and SAZ are urged by the study to conduct OSHMSs awareness breakfast meetings targeting executive management on a periodic basis. The Government of Zimbabwe through the Ministry of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare should also engage ILO Country Office for Zimbabwe to solicit for ILO’s technical assistance so as to enhance the effectiveness of NSSA’s and SAZ’s OSHMSs promotional programmes.

Keywords: occupational safety health management system, national social security authority, standard association of Zimbabwe, Mutare urban timber processing factories, ministry of public service, labour and social welfare

Procedia PDF Downloads 336
78 Predicting Loss of Containment in Surface Pipeline using Computational Fluid Dynamics and Supervised Machine Learning Model to Improve Process Safety in Oil and Gas Operations

Authors: Muhammmad Riandhy Anindika Yudhy, Harry Patria, Ramadhani Santoso

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Loss of containment is the primary hazard that process safety management is concerned within the oil and gas industry. Escalation to more serious consequences all begins with the loss of containment, starting with oil and gas release from leakage or spillage from primary containment resulting in pool fire, jet fire and even explosion when reacted with various ignition sources in the operations. Therefore, the heart of process safety management is avoiding loss of containment and mitigating its impact through the implementation of safeguards. The most effective safeguard for the case is an early detection system to alert Operations to take action prior to a potential case of loss of containment. The detection system value increases when applied to a long surface pipeline that is naturally difficult to monitor at all times and is exposed to multiple causes of loss of containment, from natural corrosion to illegal tapping. Based on prior researches and studies, detecting loss of containment accurately in the surface pipeline is difficult. The trade-off between cost-effectiveness and high accuracy has been the main issue when selecting the traditional detection method. The current best-performing method, Real-Time Transient Model (RTTM), requires analysis of closely positioned pressure, flow and temperature (PVT) points in the pipeline to be accurate. Having multiple adjacent PVT sensors along the pipeline is expensive, hence generally not a viable alternative from an economic standpoint.A conceptual approach to combine mathematical modeling using computational fluid dynamics and a supervised machine learning model has shown promising results to predict leakage in the pipeline. Mathematical modeling is used to generate simulation data where this data is used to train the leak detection and localization models. Mathematical models and simulation software have also been shown to provide comparable results with experimental data with very high levels of accuracy. While the supervised machine learning model requires a large training dataset for the development of accurate models, mathematical modeling has been shown to be able to generate the required datasets to justify the application of data analytics for the development of model-based leak detection systems for petroleum pipelines. This paper presents a review of key leak detection strategies for oil and gas pipelines, with a specific focus on crude oil applications, and presents the opportunities for the use of data analytics tools and mathematical modeling for the development of robust real-time leak detection and localization system for surface pipelines. A case study is also presented.

Keywords: pipeline, leakage, detection, AI

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77 Comparison of a Capacitive Sensor Functionalized with Natural or Synthetic Receptors Selective towards Benzo(a)Pyrene

Authors: Natalia V. Beloglazova, Pieterjan Lenain, Martin Hedstrom, Dietmar Knopp, Sarah De Saeger

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In recent years polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which represent a hazard to humans and entire ecosystem, have been receiving an increased interest due to their mutagenic, carcinogenic and endocrine disrupting properties. They are formed in all incomplete combustion processes of organic matter and, as a consequence, ubiquitous in the environment. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is on the priority list published by the Environmental Agency (US EPA) as the first PAH to be identified as a carcinogen and has often been used as a marker for PAHs contamination in general. It can be found in different types of water samples, therefore, the European Commission set up a limit value of 10 ng L–1 (10 ppt) for BAP in water intended for human consumption. Generally, different chromatographic techniques are used for PAHs determination, but these assays require pre-concentration of analyte, create large amounts of solvent waste, and are relatively time consuming and difficult to perform on-site. An alternative robust, stand-alone, and preferably cheap solution is needed. For example, a sensing unit which can be submerged in a river to monitor and continuously sample BaP. An affinity sensor based on capacitive transduction was developed. Natural antibodies or their synthetic analogues can be used as ligands. Ideally the sensor should operate independently over a longer period of time, e.g. several weeks or months, therefore the use of molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs) was discussed. MIPs are synthetic antibodies which are selective for a chosen target molecule. Their robustness allows application in environments for which biological recognition elements are unsuitable or denature. They can be reused multiple times, which is essential to meet the stand-alone requirement. BaP is a highly lipophilic compound and does not contain any functional groups in its structure, thus excluding non-covalent imprinting methods based on ionic interactions. Instead, the MIPs syntheses were based on non-covalent hydrophobic and π-π interactions. Different polymerization strategies were compared and the best results were demonstrated by the MIPs produced using electropolymerization. 4-vinylpyridin (VP) and divinylbenzene (DVB) were used as monomer and cross-linker in the polymerization reaction. The selectivity and recovery of the MIP were compared to a non-imprinted polymer (NIP). Electrodes were functionalized with natural receptor (monoclonal anti-BaP antibody) and with MIPs selective towards BaP. Different sets of electrodes were evaluated and their properties such as sensitivity, selectivity and linear range were determined and compared. It was found that both receptor can reach the cut-off level comparable to the established ML, and despite the fact that the antibody showed the better cross-reactivity and affinity, MIPs were more convenient receptor due to their ability to regenerate and stability in river till 7 days.

Keywords: antibody, benzo(a)pyrene, capacitive sensor, MIPs, river water

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76 Horizontal Cooperative Game Theory in Hotel Revenue Management

Authors: Ririh Rahma Ratinghayu, Jayu Pramudya, Nur Aini Masruroh, Shi-Woei Lin

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This research studies pricing strategy in cooperative setting of hotel duopoly selling perishable product under fixed capacity constraint by using the perspective of managers. In hotel revenue management, competitor’s average room rate and occupancy rate should be taken into manager’s consideration in determining pricing strategy to generate optimum revenue. This information is not provided by business intelligence or available in competitor’s website. Thus, Information Sharing (IS) among players might result in improved performance of pricing strategy. IS is widely adopted in the logistics industry, but IS within hospitality industry has not been well-studied. This research put IS as one of cooperative game schemes, besides Mutual Price Setting (MPS) scheme. In off-peak season, hotel manager arranges pricing strategy to offer promotion package and various kinds of discounts up to 60% of full-price to attract customers. Competitor selling homogenous product will react the same, then triggers a price war. Price war which generates lower revenue may be avoided by creating collaboration in pricing strategy to optimize payoff for both players. In MPS cooperative game, players collaborate to set a room rate applied for both players. Cooperative game may avoid unfavorable players’ payoff caused by price war. Researches on horizontal cooperative game in logistics show better performance and payoff for the players, however, horizontal cooperative game in hotel revenue management has not been demonstrated. This paper aims to develop hotel revenue management models under duopoly cooperative schemes (IS & MPS), which are compared to models under non-cooperative scheme too. Each scheme has five models, Capacity Allocation Model; Demand Model; Revenue Model; Optimal Price Model; and Equilibrium Price Model. Capacity Allocation Model and Demand Model employs self-hotel and competitor’s full and discount price as predictors under non-linear relation. Optimal price is obtained by assuming revenue maximization motive. Equilibrium price is observed by interacting self-hotel’s and competitor’s optimal price under reaction equation. Equilibrium is analyzed using game theory approach. The sequence applies for three schemes. MPS Scheme differently aims to optimize total players’ payoff. The case study in which theoretical models are applied observes two hotels offering homogenous product in Indonesia during a year. The Capacity Allocation, Demand, and Revenue Models are built using multiple regression and statistically tested for validation. Case study data confirms that price behaves within demand model in a non-linear manner. IS Models can represent the actual demand and revenue data better than Non-IS Models. Furthermore, IS enables hotels to earn significantly higher revenue. Thus, duopoly hotel players in general, might have reasonable incentives to share information horizontally. During off-peak season, MPS Models are able to predict the optimal equal price for both hotels. However, Nash equilibrium may not always exist depending on actual payoff of adhering or betraying mutual agreement. To optimize performance, horizontal cooperative game may be chosen over non-cooperative game. Mathematical models can be used to detect collusion among business players. Empirical testing can be used as policy input for market regulator in preventing unethical business practices potentially harming society welfare.

Keywords: horizontal cooperative game theory, hotel revenue management, information sharing, mutual price setting

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75 Applying Simulation-Based Digital Teaching Plans and Designs in Operating Medical Equipment

Authors: Kuo-Kai Lin, Po-Lun Chang

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Background: The Emergency Care Research Institute released a list for the top 10 medical technology hazards in 2017, with the following hazard topping the list: ‘infusion errors can be deadly if simple safety steps are overlooked.’ In addition, hospitals use various assessment items to evaluate the safety of their medical equipment, confirming the importance of medical equipment safety. In recent years, the topic of patient safety has garnered increasing attention. Accordingly, various agencies have established patient safety-related committees to coordinate, collect, and analyze information regarding abnormal events associated with medical practice. Activities to promote and improve employee training have been introduced to diminish the recurrence of medical malpractice. Objective: To allow nursing personnel to acquire the skills needed to operate common medical equipment and update and review such skills whenever necessary to elevate medical care quality and reduce patient injuries caused by medical equipment operation errors. Method: In this study, a quasi-experimental design was adopted and nurses from a regional teaching hospital were selected as the study sample. Online videos instructing the operation method of common medical equipment were made and quick response codes were designed for the nursing personnel to quickly access the videos when necessary. Senior nursing supervisors and equipment experts were invited to formulate a ‘Scale-based Questionnaire for Assessing Nursing Personnel’s Operational Knowledge of Common Medical Equipment’ to evaluate the nursing personnel’s literacy regarding the operation of the medical equipment. From March to October 2017, an employee training on medical equipment operation and a practice course (simulation course) were implemented, after which the effectiveness of the training and practice course were assessed. Results: Prior to and after the training and practice course, the 66 participating nurses scored 58 and 87 on ‘operational knowledge of common medical equipment,’ respectively (showing a significant statistical difference; t = -9.407, p < .001); 53.5 and 86.3 on ‘operational knowledge of 12-lead electrocardiography’ (z = -2.087, p < .01), respectively; 40 and 79.5 on ‘operational knowledge of cardiac defibrillators’ (z = -3.849, p < .001), respectively; 90 and 98 on ‘operational knowledge of Abbott pumps’ (z = -1.841, p = 0.066), respectively; and 8.7 and 13.7 on ‘perceived competence’ (showing a significant statistical difference; t = -2.77, p < .05). In the participating hospital, medical equipment operation errors were observed in both 2016 and 2017. However, since the implementation of the intervention, medical equipment operation errors have not yet been observed up to October 2017, which can be regarded as the secondary outcome of this study. Conclusion: In this study, innovative teaching strategies were adopted to effectively enhance the professional literacy and skills of nursing personnel in operating medical equipment. The training and practice course also elevated the nursing personnel’s related literacy and perceived competence of operating medical equipment. The nursing personnel was thus able to accurately operate the medical equipment and avoid operational errors that might jeopardize patient safety.

Keywords: medical equipment, digital teaching plan, simulation-based teaching plan, operational knowledge, patient safety

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74 The Interrelation of Institutional Care and Successful Aging

Authors: Naphaporn Sapsopha

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Aging population has been growing rapidly in Thailand due to several factors – namely, the declining size of the average Thai family, changing family structure, higher survival rates of women, and job migration patterns – there are fewer working-age citizens who are able to care for and support their aging family members. When a family can no longer provide for their elders, the responsibility shifts to the government. Many non-profit institutional care facilities for older adults have already been established, but having such institutions are not enough. In addition to the provisions that a reliable shelter can provide, older adults also need efficient social services, physical wellness, and mental health, all of which are crucial for successful aging. Yet, to date, there is no consensus or a well-accepted definition of what constitutes successful aging. The issue is further complicated by cultural expectations, and the gendered experience of the older adults. These issues need to be better understood to promote effective care and wellness. This qualitative research investigates the relationship between institutional care and successful aging among the institutionalized Thai older adults at a non-profit facility in Bangkok, Thailand. Specifically, it examines: a) How do institutionalized older adults define successful aging?, b) What factors do they believe contribute to successful aging?, and c) Do their beliefs vary by gender? Data was collected using a phenomenological research approach that included focus groups and in-depth interviews using open-ended questions, conducted on 10 institutionalized older adults (5 men and 5 women) ages 60 or over. Interview transcripts were coded and analyzed using grounded theory methodology. The participants aged between 70-91 years old, and they varied in terms of gender, education, occupation, and life background. The results revealed that Thai institutionalized older adults viewed successful aging as a result of multiple interrelated factors: maintaining physical health, good mental and cognitive abilities. Remarkably, the participants identified as successful aging include independence for self-care and financial support, adhering to moral principles and religious practice, seeing the success of their loved ones, and making social contributions to their community. In addition, three primary themes were identified as a coping strategy to age successfully: self-acceptance by being sufficient and satisfied with all aspects of life, preparedness and adaptation for every stage of life, and self-esteem by maintaining their self. These beliefs are shared across gender and age differences. However, participants highlighted the importance of the interrelationship among these attributes similar to the need for a secure environment, the thoughtfulness and social support of institutional care in order to maintain positive attitude and well-being. With highly increased Thai aging population, many of these older adults will find themselves living in the institutional care; therefore, it is important to intensively understand how older adults viewed successful aging, what constituted successful aging and what could be done to promote it. Interventions to enhance successful aging may include meaningful practice and along with an effective coping strategy in order to lead a better quality of life those living in institutional care.

Keywords: institutional care, older adults, self-acceptant, successful aging

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73 L1 Poetry and Moral Tales as a Factor Affecting L2 Acquisition in EFL Settings

Authors: Arif Ahmed Mohammed Al-Ahdal

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Poetry, tales, and fables have always been a part of the L1 repertoire and one that takes the learners to another amazing and fascinating world of imagination. The storytelling class and the genre of poems are activities greatly enjoyed by all age groups. The very significant idea behind their inclusion in the language curriculum is to sensitize young minds to a wide range of human emotions that are believed to greatly contribute to building their social resilience, emotional stability, empathy towards fellow creatures, and literacy. Quite certainly, the learning objective at this stage is not language acquisition (though it happens as an automatic process) but getting the young learners to be acquainted with an entire spectrum of what may be called the ‘noble’ abilities of the human race. They enrich their very existence, inspiring them to unearth ‘selves’ that help them as adults and enable them to co-exist fruitfully and symbiotically with their fellow human beings. By extension, ‘higher’ training in these literature genres shows the universality of human emotions, sufferings, aspirations, and hopes. The current study is anchored on the Reader-Response-Theory in literature learning, which suggests that the reader reconstructs work and re-enacts the author's creative role. Reiteratingly, literary works provide clues or verbal symbols in a linguistic system, widely accepted by everyone who shares the language, but everyone reads their own life experiences and situations into them. The significance of words depends on the reader, even if they have a typical relationship. In every reading, there is an interaction between the reader and the text. The process of reading is an experience in which the reader tries to comprehend the literary work, which surpasses its full potential since it provides emotional and intellectual reactions that are not anticipated from the document but cannot be affirmed just by the reader as a part of the text. The idea is that the text forms the basis of a unifying experience. A reinterpretation of the literary text may transform it into a guiding principle to respond to actual experiences and personal memories. The impulses delivered to the reader vary according to poetry or texts; nevertheless, the readers differ considerably even with the same material. Previous studies confirm that poetry is a useful tool for learning a language. This present paper works on these hypotheses and proposes to study the impetus given to L2 learning as a factor of exposure to poetry and meaningful stories in L1. The driving force behind the choice of this topic is the first-hand experience that the researcher had while teaching a literary text to a group of BA students who, as a reaction to the text, initially burst into tears and ultimately turned the class into an interactive session. The study also intends to compare the performance of male and female students post intervention using pre and post-tests, apart from undertaking a detailed inquiry via interviews with college learners of English to understand how L1 literature plays a great role in the acquisition of L2.

Keywords: SLA, literary text, poetry, tales, affective factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 77
72 Survey of Prevalence of Noise Induced Hearing Loss in Hawkers and Shopkeepers in Noisy Areas of Mumbai City

Authors: Hitesh Kshayap, Shantanu Arya, Ajay Basod, Sachin Sakhuja

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This study was undertaken to measure the overall noise levels in different locations/zones and to estimate the prevalence of Noise induced hearing loss in Hawkers & Shopkeepers in Mumbai, India. The Hearing Test developed by American Academy Of Otolaryngology, translated from English to Hindi, and validated is used as a screening tool for hearing sensitivity was employed. The tool is having 14 items. Each item is scored on a scale 0, 1, 2 and 3. The score 6 and above indicated some difficulty or definite difficulty in hearing in daily activities and low score indicated lesser difficulty or normal hearing. The subjects who scored 6 or above or having tinnitus were made to undergo hearing evaluation by Pure tone audiometer. Further, the environmental noise levels were measured from Morning to Evening at road side at different Location/Hawking zones in Mumbai city using SLM9 Agronic 8928B & K type Digital Sound Level Meter) in dB (A). The maximum noise level of 100.0 dB (A) was recorded during evening hours from Chattrapati Shivaji Terminal to Colaba with overall noise level of 79.0 dB (A). However, the minimum noise level in this area was 72.6 dB (A) at any given point of time. Further, 54.6 dB (A) was recorded as minimum noise level during 8-9 am at Sion Circle. Further, commencement of flyovers with 2-tier traffic, sky walks, increasing number of vehicular traffic at road, high rise buildings and other commercial & urbanization activities in the Mumbai city most probably have resulted in increasing the overall environmental noise levels. Trees which acted as noise absorbers have been cut owing to rapid construction. The study involved 100 participants in the age range of 18 to 40 years of age, with the mean age of 29 years (S.D. =6.49). 46 participants having tinnitus or have obtained the score of 6 were made to undergo Pure Tone Audiometry and it was found that the prevalence rate of hearing loss in hawkers & shopkeepers is 19% (10% Hawkers and 9 % Shopkeepers). The results found indicates that 29 (42.6%) out of 64 Hawkers and 17 (47.2%) out of 36 Shopkeepers who underwent PTA had no significant difference in percentage of Noise Induced Hearing loss. The study results also reveal that participants who exhibited tinnitus 19 (41.30%) out of 46 were having mild to moderate sensorineural hearing loss between 3000Hz to 6000Hz. The Pure tone Audiogram pattern revealed Hearing loss at 4000 Hz and 6000 Hz while hearing at adjacent frequencies were nearly normal. 7 hawkers and 8 shopkeepers had mild notch while 3 hawkers and 1 shopkeeper had a moderate degree of notch. It is thus inferred that tinnitus is a strong indicator for presence of hearing loss and 4/6 KHz notch is a strong marker for road/traffic/ environmental noise as an occupational hazard for hawkers and shopkeepers. Mass awareness about these occupational hazards, regular hearing check up, early intervention along with sustainable development juxtaposed with social and urban forestry can help in this regard.

Keywords: NIHL, noise, sound level meter, tinnitus

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71 Ground Motion Modeling Using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator

Authors: Yildiz Stella Dak, Jale Tezcan

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Ground motion models that relate a strong motion parameter of interest to a set of predictive seismological variables describing the earthquake source, the propagation path of the seismic wave, and the local site conditions constitute a critical component of seismic hazard analyses. When a sufficient number of strong motion records are available, ground motion relations are developed using statistical analysis of the recorded ground motion data. In regions lacking a sufficient number of recordings, a synthetic database is developed using stochastic, theoretical or hybrid approaches. Regardless of the manner the database was developed, ground motion relations are developed using regression analysis. Development of a ground motion relation is a challenging process which inevitably requires the modeler to make subjective decisions regarding the inclusion criteria of the recordings, the functional form of the model and the set of seismological variables to be included in the model. Because these decisions are critically important to the validity and the applicability of the model, there is a continuous interest on procedures that will facilitate the development of ground motion models. This paper proposes the use of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) in selecting the set predictive seismological variables to be used in developing a ground motion relation. The LASSO can be described as a penalized regression technique with a built-in capability of variable selection. Similar to the ridge regression, the LASSO is based on the idea of shrinking the regression coefficients to reduce the variance of the model. Unlike ridge regression, where the coefficients are shrunk but never set equal to zero, the LASSO sets some of the coefficients exactly to zero, effectively performing variable selection. Given a set of candidate input variables and the output variable of interest, LASSO allows ranking the input variables in terms of their relative importance, thereby facilitating the selection of the set of variables to be included in the model. Because the risk of overfitting increases as the ratio of the number of predictors to the number of recordings increases, selection of a compact set of variables is important in cases where a small number of recordings are available. In addition, identification of a small set of variables can improve the interpretability of the resulting model, especially when there is a large number of candidate predictors. A practical application of the proposed approach is presented, using more than 600 recordings from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) database, where the effect of a set of seismological predictors on the 5% damped maximum direction spectral acceleration is investigated. The set of candidate predictors considered are Magnitude, Rrup, Vs30. Using LASSO, the relative importance of the candidate predictors has been ranked. Regression models with increasing levels of complexity were constructed using one, two, three, and four best predictors, and the models’ ability to explain the observed variance in the target variable have been compared. The bias-variance trade-off in the context of model selection is discussed.

Keywords: ground motion modeling, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, penalized regression, variable selection

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70 Socio-Psychological Significance of Vandalism in the Urban Environment: Destruction, Modernization, Communication

Authors: Olga Kruzhkova, Irina Vorobyeva, Roman Porozov

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Vandalism is a common phenomenon, but its definition is still not clearly defined. In the public sense, vandalism is the blatant cases of pogroms in cemeteries, destruction of public places (regardless of whether these actions are authorized), damage to significant objects of culture and history (monuments, religious buildings). From a legal point of view, only such an act can be called vandalism, which is aimed at 'desecrating buildings or other structures, damaging property on public transport or in other public places'. The key here is the notion of public property that is being damaged. In addition, the principal is the semantics of messages, expressed in a kind of sign system (drawing, inscription, symbol), which initially threatens public order, the calmness of citizens, public morality. Because of this, the legal qualification of vandalism doesn’t include a sufficiently wide layer of environmental destructions that are common in modern urban space (graffiti and other damage to private property, broken shop windows, damage to entrances and elevator cabins), which in ordinary consciousness are seen as obvious facts of vandalism. At the same time, the understanding of vandalism from the position of psychology implies an appeal to the question of the limits of the activity of the subject of vandalism and his motivational basis. Also recently, the discourse on the positive meaning of some forms of vandalism (graffiti, street-art, etc.) has been activated. But there is no discussion of the role and significance of vandalism in public and individual life, although, like any socio-cultural and socio-psychological phenomenon, vandalism is not groundless and meaningless. Our aim of the study was to identify and describe the functions of vandalism as a socio-cultural and socio-psychological phenomenon of the life of the urban community, as well as personal determinants of its manifestations. The study was conducted in the spatial environment of the Russian megalopolis (Ekaterinburg) by photographing visual results of vandal acts (6217 photos) with subsequent trace-assessment and image content analysis, as well as diagnostics of personal characteristics and motivational basis of vandal activity of possible subjects of vandalism among youth. The results of the study allowed to identify the functions of vandalism at the socio-environmental and individual-subjective levels. The socio-environmental functions of vandalism include the signaling function, the function of preparing of social changes, the constructing function, and the function of managing public moods. The demonstrative-protest function, the response function, the refund function, and the self-expression function are assigned to the individual-subjective functions of vandalism. A two-dimensional model of vandal functions has been formed, where functions are distributed in the spaces 'construction reconstruction', 'emotional regulation/moral regulation'. It is noted that any function of vandal activity at the individual level becomes a kind of marker of 'points of tension' at the social and environmental level. Acknowledgment: The research was supported financially by Russian Science Foundation, (Project No. 17-18-01278).

Keywords: destruction, urban environment, vandal behavior, vandalism, vandalism functions

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69 Innocent Victims and Immoral Women: Sex Workers in the Philippines through the Lens of Mainstream Media

Authors: Sharmila Parmanand

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This paper examines dominant media representations of prostitution in the Philippines and interrogates sex workers’ interactions with the media establishment. This analysis of how sex workers are constituted in media, often as both innocent victims and immoral actors, contributes to an understanding of public discourse on sex work in the Philippines, where decriminalisation has recently been proposed and sex workers are currently classified as potential victims under anti-trafficking laws but also as criminals under the penal code. The first part is an analysis of media coverage of two prominent themes on prostitution: first, raid and rescue operations conducted by law enforcement; and second, prostitution on military bases and tourism hotspots. As a result of pressure from activists and international donors, these two themes often define the policy conversations on sex work in the Philippines. The discourses in written and televised news reports and documentaries from established local and international media sources that address these themes are explored through content analysis. Conclusions are drawn based on specific terms commonly used to refer to sex workers, how sex workers are seen as performing their cultural roles as mothers and wives, how sex work is depicted, associations made between sex work and public health, representations of clients and managers and ‘rescuers’ such as the police, anti-trafficking organisations, and faith-based groups, and which actors are presumed to be issue experts. Images of how prostitution is used as a metaphor for relations between the Philippines and foreign nations are also deconstructed, along with common tropes about developing world female subjects. In general, sex workers are simultaneously portrayed as bad mothers who endanger their family’s morality but also as long-suffering victims who endure exploitation for the sake of their children. They are also depicted as unclean, drug-addicted threats to public health. Their managers and clients are portrayed as cold, abusive, and sometimes violent, and their rescuers as moral and altruistic agents who are essential for sex workers’ rehabilitation and restoration as virtuous citizens. The second part explores sex workers’ own perceptions of their interactions with media, through interviews with members of the Philippine Sex Workers Collective, a loose organisation of sex workers around the Philippines. They reveal that they are often excluded by media practitioners and that they do not feel that they have space for meaningful self-revelation about their work when they do engage with journalists, who seem to have an overt agenda of depicting them as either victims or women of loose morals. In their assessment, media narratives do not necessarily reflect their lived experiences, and in some cases, coverage of rescues and raid operations endangers their privacy and instrumentalises their suffering. Media representations of sex workers may produce subject positions such as ‘victims’ or ‘criminals’ and legitimize specific interventions while foreclosing other ways of thinking. Further, in light of media’s power to reflect and shape public consciousness, it is a valuable academic and political project to examine whether sex workers are able to assert agency in determining how they are represented.

Keywords: discourse analysis, news media, sex work, trafficking

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68 Intrigues of Brand Activism versus Brand Antagonism in Rival Online Football Brand Communities: The Case of the Top Two Premier Football Clubs in Ghana

Authors: Joshua Doe, George Amoako

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Purpose: In an increasingly digital world, the realm of sports fandom has extended its borders, creating a vibrant ecosystem of online communities centered around football clubs. This study ventures into the intricate interplay of motivations that drive football fans to respond to brand activism and its profound implications for brand antagonism and engagement among two of Ghana's most revered premier football clubs. Methods: A sample of 459 fervent fans from these two rival clubs were engaged through self-administered questionnaires expertly distributed via social media and online platforms. Data was analysed, using PLS-SEM. Findings: The tapestry of motivations that weave through these online football communities is as diverse as the fans themselves. It becomes apparent that fans are propelled by a spectrum of incentives. They seek education, yearn for information, revel in entertainment, embrace socialization, and fortify their self-esteem through their interactions within these digital spaces. Yet, it is the nuanced distinction in these motivations that shapes the trajectory of brand antagonism and engagement. Surprisingly, the study reveals a remarkable pattern. Football fans, despite their fierce rivalries, do not engage in brand antagonism based on educational pursuits, information-seeking endeavors, or socialization. Instead, it is motivations rooted in entertainment and self-esteem that serve as the fertile grounds for brand antagonism. Paradoxically, it is these very motivations coupled with the desire for socialization that nurture brand engagement, manifesting as active support and advocacy for their chosen club brand. Originality: Our research charters new waters by extending the boundaries of existing theories in the field. The Technology Acceptance Uses and Gratifications Theory, and Social Identity Theory all find new dimensions within the context of online brand community engagement. This not only deepens our understanding of the multifaceted world of online football fandom but also invites us to explore the implications these insights carry within the digital realm. Contribution to Practice: For marketers, our findings offer a treasure trove of actionable insights. They beckon the development of targeted content strategies that resonate with fan motivations. The implementation of brand advocacy programs, fostering opportunities for socialization, and the effective management of brand antagonism emerge as pivotal strategies. Furthermore, the utilization of data-driven insights is poised to refine consumer engagement strategies and strengthen brand affinity. Future Studies: For future studies, we advocate for longitudinal, cross-cultural, and qualitative studies that could shed further light on this topic. Comparative analyses across different types of online brand communities, an exploration of the role of brand community leaders, and inquiries into the factors that contribute to brand community dissolution all beckon the research community. Furthermore, understanding motivation-specific antagonistic behaviors and the intricate relationship between information-seeking and engagement present exciting avenues for further exploration. This study unfurls a vibrant tapestry of fan motivations, brand activism, and rivalry within online football communities. It extends a hand to scholars and marketers alike, inviting them to embark on a journey through this captivating digital realm, where passion, rivalry, and engagement harmonize to shape the world of sports fandom as we know it.

Keywords: online brand engagement, football fans, brand antagonism, motivations

Procedia PDF Downloads 65
67 Problem, Policy and Polity in Agenda Setting: Analyzing Safe Motherhood Program in India

Authors: Vanita Singh

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In developing countries, there are conflicting political agendas; policy makers have to prioritize issues from a list of issues competing for the limited resources. Thus, it is imperative to understand how some issues gain attention, and others lose in the policy circles. Multiple-Streams Theory of Kingdon (1984) is among the influential theories that help to understand the public policy process and is utilitarian for health policy makers to understand how certain health issues emerge on the policy agendas. The issue of maternal mortality was long standing in India and was linked with high birth rate thus the focus of maternal health policy was on family planning since India’s independence. However, a paradigm shift was noted in the maternal health policy in the year 1992 with the launch of Safe Motherhood Programme and then in the year 2005, when the agenda of maternal health policy became universalizing institutional deliveries and phasing-out of Traditional Birth Attendants (TBAs) from the health system. There were many solutions proposed by policy communities other than universalizing of institutional deliveries, including training of TBAs and improving socio-economic conditions of pregnant women. However, Government of India favored medical community, which was advocating for the policy of universalizing institutional delivery, and neglected the solutions proposed by other policy communities. It took almost 15 years for the advocates of institutional delivery to transform their proposed solution into a program - the Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), a safe-motherhood program promoting institutional delivery through cash incentives to pregnant women. Thus, the case of safe motherhood policy in India is worth studying to understand how certain issues/problems gain political attention and how advocacy work in policy circles. This paper attempts to understand the factors that favored the agenda of safe-motherhood in the policy circle in India, using John Kingdon’s Multiple-Stream model of agenda-setting. Through document analysis and literature review, the paper traces the evolution of safe motherhood program and maternal health policy. The study has used open source documents available on the website of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, media reports (Times of India Archive) and related research papers. The documents analyzed include National health policy-1983, National Health Policy-2002, written reports of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Department, National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) document, documents related to Janani Suraksha Yojana and research articles related to maternal health programme in India. The study finds that focusing events and credible indicators coupled with media attention has the potential to recognize a problem. The political elites favor clearly defined and well-accepted solutions. The trans-national organizations affect the agenda-setting process in a country through conditional resource provision. The closely-knit policy communities and political entrepreneurship are required for advocating solutions high on agendas. The study has implications for health policy makers in identifying factors that have the potential to affect the agenda-setting process for a desired policy agenda and identify the challenges in generating political priorities.

Keywords: agenda-setting, focusing events, Kingdon’s model, safe motherhood program India

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66 Implications of Agricultural Subsidies Since Green Revolution: A Case Study of Indian Punjab

Authors: Kriti Jain, Sucha Singh Gill

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Subsidies have been a major part of agricultural policies around the world, and more extensively since the green revolution in developing countries, for the sake of attaining higher agricultural productivity and achieving food security. But entrenched subsidies lead to distorted incentives and promote inefficiencies in the agricultural sector, threatening the viability of these very subsidies and sustainability of the agricultural production systems, posing a threat to the livelihood of farmers and laborers dependent on it. This paper analyzes the economic and ecological sustainability implications of prolonged input and output subsidies in agriculture by studying the case of Indian Punjab, an agriculturally developed state responsible for ensuring food security in the country when it was facing a major food crisis. The paper focuses specifically on the environmentally unsustainable cropping pattern changes as a result of Minimum Support Price (MSP) and assured procurement and on the resource use efficiency and cost implications of power subsidy for irrigation in Punjab. The study is based on an analysis of both secondary and primary data sources. Using secondary data, a time series analysis was done to capture the changes in Punjab’s cropping pattern, water table depth, fertilizer consumption, and electrification of agriculture. This has been done to examine the role of price and output support adopted to encourage the adoption of green revolution technology in changing the cropping structure of the state, resulting in increased input use intensities (especially groundwater and fertilizers), which harms the ecological balance and decreases factor productivity. Evaluation of electrification of Punjab agriculture helped evaluate the trend in electricity productivity of agriculture and how free power imposed further pressure on the extant agricultural ecosystem. Using data collected from a primary survey of 320 farmers in Punjab, the extent of wasteful application of groundwater irrigation, water productivity of output, electricity usage, and cost of irrigation driven electricity subsidy to the exchequer were estimated for the dominant cropping pattern amongst farmers. The main findings of the study revealed how because of a subsidy has driven agricultural framework, Punjab has lost area under agro climatically suitable and staple crops and moved towards a paddy-wheat cropping system, that is gnawing away the state’s natural resources like water table has been declining at a significant rate of 25 cms per year since 1975-76, and excessive and imbalanced fertilizer usage has led to declining soil fertility in the state. With electricity-driven tubewells as the major source of irrigation within a regime of free electricity and water-intensive crop cultivation, there is both wasteful application of irrigation water and electricity in the cultivation of paddy crops, burning an unproductive hole in the exchequer’s pocket. There is limited access to both agricultural extension services and water-conserving technology, along with policy imbalance, keeping farmers in an intensive and unsustainable production system. Punjab agriculture is witnessing diminishing returns to factor, which under the business-as-usual scenario, will soon enter the phase of negative returns to factor.

Keywords: cropping pattern, electrification, subsidy, sustainability

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65 Discourse Functions of Rhetorical Devices in Selected Roman Catholic Bishops' Pastoral Letters in the Ecclesiastical Province of Onitsha, Nigeria

Authors: Virginia Chika Okafor

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The pastoral letter, an open letter addressed by a bishop to members of his diocese for the purpose of promoting faith and good Christian living, constitutes a persuasive religious discourse characterized by numerous rhetorical devices. Previous studies on Christian religious language have concentrated mainly on sermons, liturgy, prayers, theology, scriptures, hymns, and songs to the exclusion of the persuasive power of pastoral letters. This study, therefore, examined major rhetorical devices in selected Roman Catholic bishops’ Lenten pastoral letters in the Ecclesiastical Province of Onitsha, with a view to determining their persuasive discourse functions. Aristotelian Rhetoric was adopted as the framework because of its emphasis on persuasion through three main rhetorical appeals: logos, pathos, and ethos. Data were drawn from 10 pastoral letters of five Roman Catholic bishops in five dioceses (two letters from each) out of the seven in the Ecclesiastical of Onitsha. The five dioceses (Onitsha arch-diocese, Nnewi, Awka, Enugu, and Awgu dioceses) were chosen because pastoral letters are regularly published there. The 10 pastoral letters were published between 2000 and 2010 and range between 20 and 104 pages. They were selected, through purposive sampling, based on consistency in the publication and rhetorical content. Data were subjected to discourse analysis. Three categories of rhetorical devices were identified: those relating to logos (logical devices), those relating to pathos (pathetical devices), and those relating to ethos (ethical devices). Major logical devices deployed were: testimonial reference functioning as authority to validate messages; logical arguments appealing to the rationality of the audience; nominalization and passivation objectifying the validity of ideas; and modals of obligation/necessity appealing to the audience’s sense of responsibility and moral duty. Prominent among the pathetical devices deployed were: use of Igbo language to express solidarity with the audience; inclusive pronoun (we) to create a feeling of belonging, collectivism and oneness with them; prayers to inspire them; and positive emotion-laden words to refer to the Roman Catholic Church (RCC) to keep the audience emotionally attached to it. Finally, major ethical devices deployed were: use of first-person singular pronoun (I) and imperatives to invoke the authority of the bishops’ office; Latinisms to show learnedness; greetings and appreciation to express goodwill; and exemplary Biblical characters as models of faith, repentance, and love. The rhetorical devices were used in relation to the bishops’ messages of faith, repentance, love and loyalty to the Roman Catholic Church. Roman Catholic bishops’ pastoral letters in the Ecclesiastical Province of Onitsha are thus characterized by logos-, pathos-, and ethos-related rhetorical devices designed to persuade the audience to live according to the bishops’ messages of faith, love, repentance, and loyalty to the Roman Catholic Church. The rhetorical devices, therefore, establish the pastoral letters as a significant form of persuasive religious discourse.

Keywords: ecclesiastical province of Onitsha, pastoral letters, persuasive discourse functions, rhetorical devices, Roman Catholic bishops

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64 Policies for Circular Bioeconomy in Portugal: Barriers and Constraints

Authors: Ana Fonseca, Ana Gouveia, Edgar Ramalho, Rita Henriques, Filipa Figueiredo, João Nunes

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Due to persistent climate pressures, there is a need to find a resilient economic system that is regenerative in nature. Bioeconomy offers the possibility of replacing non-renewable and non-biodegradable materials derived from fossil fuels with ones that are renewable and biodegradable, while a Circular Economy aims at sustainable and resource-efficient operations. The term "Circular Bioeconomy", which can be summarized as all activities that transform biomass for its use in various product streams, expresses the interaction between these two ideas. Portugal has a very favourable context to promote a Circular Bioeconomy due to its variety of climates and ecosystems, availability of biologically based resources, location, and geomorphology. Recently, there have been political and legislative efforts to develop the Portuguese Circular Bioeconomy. The Action Plan for a Sustainable Bioeconomy, approved in 2021, is composed of five axes of intervention, ranging from sustainable production and the use of regionally based biological resources to the development of a circular and sustainable bioindustry through research and innovation. However, as some statistics show, Portugal is still far from achieving circularity. According to Eurostat, Portugal has circularity rates of 2.8%, which is the second lowest among the member states of the European Union. Some challenges contribute to this scenario, including sectorial heterogeneity and fragmentation, prevalence of small producers, lack of attractiveness for younger generations, and absence of implementation of collaborative solutions amongst producers and along value chains.Regarding the Portuguese industrial sector, there is a tendency towards complex bureaucratic processes, which leads to economic and financial obstacles and an unclear national strategy. Together with the limited number of incentives the country has to offer to those that pretend to abandon the linear economic model, many entrepreneurs are hesitant to invest the capital needed to make their companies more circular. Absence of disaggregated, georeferenced, and reliable information regarding the actual availability of biological resources is also a major issue. Low literacy on bioeconomy among many of the sectoral agents and in society in general directly impacts the decisions of production and final consumption. The WinBio project seeks to outline a strategic approach for the management of weaknesses/opportunities in the technology transfer process, given the reality of the territory, through road mapping and national and international benchmarking. The developed work included the identification and analysis of agents in the interior region of Portugal, natural endogenous resources, products, and processes associated with potential development. Specific flow of biological wastes, possible value chains, and the potential for replacing critical raw materials with bio-based products was accessed, taking into consideration other countries with a matured bioeconomy. The study found food industry, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries generate huge amounts of waste streams, which in turn provide an opportunity for the establishment of local bio-industries powered by this biomass. The project identified biological resources with potential for replication and applicability in the Portuguese context. The richness of natural resources and potentials known in the interior region of Portugal is a major key to developing the Circular Economy and sustainability of the country.

Keywords: circular bioeconomy, interior region of portugal, regional development., public policy

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63 Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, Flash Flooding and Organisational Resilience Capacity: Qualitative Findings on Implications of the Catastrophic 2017 Flash Flood Event in Mandra, Greece

Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Loannis Nikolaou

Abstract:

On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece's deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event too small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs' resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioral responses and experiences, can feed into a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organizational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study

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62 Disaster Management Approach for Planning an Early Response to Earthquakes in Urban Areas

Authors: Luis Reynaldo Mota-Santiago, Angélica Lozano

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Determining appropriate measures to face earthquakesarea challenge for practitioners. In the literature, some analyses consider disaster scenarios, disregarding some important field characteristics. Sometimes, software that allows estimating the number of victims and infrastructure damages is used. Other times historical information of previous events is used, or the scenarios’informationis assumed to be available even if it isnot usual in practice. Humanitarian operations start immediately after an earthquake strikes, and the first hours in relief efforts are important; local efforts are critical to assess the situation and deliver relief supplies to the victims. A preparation action is prepositioning stockpiles, most of them at central warehouses placed away from damage-prone areas, which requires large size facilities and budget. Usually, decisions in the first 12 hours (standard relief time (SRT)) after the disaster are the location of temporary depots and the design of distribution paths. The motivation for this research was the delay in the reaction time of the early relief efforts generating the late arrival of aid to some areas after the Mexico City 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2017. Hence, a preparation approach for planning the immediate response to earthquake disasters is proposed, intended for local governments, considering their capabilities for planning and for responding during the SRT, in order to reduce the start-up time of immediate response operations in urban areas. The first steps are the generation and analysis of disaster scenarios, which allow estimatethe relief demand before and in the early hours after an earthquake. The scenarios can be based on historical data and/or the seismic hazard analysis of an Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risk as a way to address the limited or null available information.The following steps include the decision processes for: a) locating local depots (places to prepositioning stockpiles)and aid-giving facilities at closer places as possible to risk areas; and b) designing the vehicle paths for aid distribution (from local depots to the aid-giving facilities), which can be used at the beginning of the response actions. This approach allows speeding up the delivery of aid in the early moments of the emergency, which could reduce the suffering of the victims allowing additional time to integrate a broader and more streamlined response (according to new information)from national and international organizations into these efforts. The proposed approachis applied to two case studies in Mexico City. These areas were affectedby the 2017’s earthquake, having limited aid response. The approach generates disaster scenarios in an easy way and plans a faster early response with a short quantity of stockpiles which can be managed in the early hours of the emergency by local governments. Considering long-term storage, the estimated quantities of stockpiles require a limited budget to maintain and a small storage space. These stockpiles are useful also to address a different kind of emergencies in the area.

Keywords: disaster logistics, early response, generation of disaster scenarios, preparation phase

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