Search results for: case finding

Authors: Adrienn Kiss, Karoly Zauer, Gyorgy Keglevich, Rita Molnarne Bernath

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Ginger (Zingiber officinale) is a perennial plant from Southeast Asia, widely used as a spice, herb, and medicine for many illnesses since its beneficial health effects were observed thousands of years ago. Among the compounds found in ginger, zingerone [4-hydroxy-3- methoxyphenyl-2-butanone] deserves special attention: it has an anti-inflammatory and antispasmodic effect, it can be used in case of diarrheal disease, helps to prevent the formation of blood clots, has antimicrobial properties, and can also play a role in preventing the Alzheimer's disease. Ferulic acid [(E)-3-(4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenyl)-prop-2-enoic acid] is another cinnamic acid derivative in ginger, which has promising properties. Like many phenolic compounds, ferulic acid is also an antioxidant. Based on the results of animal experiments, it is assumed to have a direct antitumoral effect in lung and liver cancer. It also deactivates free radicals that can damage the cell membrane and the DNA and helps to protect the skin against UV radiation. The aim of this work was to synthesize these two compounds by new methods. A few of the reactions were based on the hydrogenation of dehydrozingerone [4-(4-Hydroxy-3-methoxyphenyl)-3-buten-2-one] to zingerone. Dehydrozingerone can be synthesized by a relatively simple method from acetone and vanillin with good yield (80%, melting point: 41 °C). Hydrogenation can be carried out chemically, for example by the reaction of zinc and acetic acid, or Grignard magnesium and ethyl alcohol. Another way to complete the reduction is the electrochemical pathway. The electrolysis of dehydrozingerone without diaphragm in aqueous media was attempted to produce ferulic acid in the presence of sodium carbonate and potassium iodide using platinum electrodes. The electrolysis of dehydrozingerone in the presence of potassium carbonate and acetic acid to prepare zingerone was carried out similarly. Ferulic acid was expected to be converted to dihydroferulic acid [3-(4-Hydroxy-3-methoxyphenyl)propanoic acid] in potassium hydroxide solution using iron electrodes, separating the anode and cathode space with a Soxhlet paper sheath impregnated with saturated magnesium chloride solution. For this reaction, ferulic acid was synthesized from vanillin and malonic acid in the presence of pyridine and piperidine (yield: 88.7%, melting point: 173°C). Unfortunately, in many cases, the expected transformations did not happen or took place in low conversions, although gas evolution occurred. Thus, a deeper understanding of these experiments and optimization are needed. Since both compounds are found in different plants, they can also be obtained by alkaline extraction or steam distillation from distinct plant parts (ferulic acid from ground bamboo shoots, zingerone from grated ginger root). The products of these reactions are rich in several other organic compounds as well; therefore, their separation must be solved to get the desired pure material. The products of the reactions described above were characterized by infrared spectral data and melting points. The use of these two simple methods may be informative for the formation of the products. In the future, we would like to study the ferulic acid and zingerone content of other plants and extract them efficiently. The optimization of electrochemical reactions and the use of other test methods are also among our plans.

Keywords: ferulic acid, ginger, synthesis, zingerone

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Authors: Sinead Impey, Gaye Stephens, Declan O’Sullivan

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Mitigating organisational knowledge loss presents challenges for knowledge managers. Expert knowledge is embodied in people and captured in ‘routines, processes, practices and norms’ as well as in the paper system. These knowledge stores have limitations in so far as they make knowledge diffusion beyond geography or over time difficult. However, technology could present a potential solution by facilitating the capture and management of expert knowledge in a codified and sharable format. Before it can be digitised, however, the knowledge of healthcare experts must be captured. Methods: As a first step in a larger project on this topic, a scoping review was conducted to identify how expert healthcare knowledge is captured digitally. The aim of the review was to identify current healthcare knowledge capture practices, identify gaps in the literature, and justify future research. The review followed a scoping review framework. From an initial 3,430 papers retrieved, 22 were deemed relevant and included in the review. Findings: Two broad approaches –direct and indirect- with themes and subthemes emerged. ‘Direct’ describes a process whereby knowledge is taken directly from subject experts. The themes identified were: ‘Researcher mediated capture’ and ‘Digital mediated capture’. The latter was further distilled into two sub-themes: ‘Captured in specified purpose platforms (SPP)’ and ‘Captured in a virtual community of practice (vCoP)’. ‘Indirect’ processes rely on extracting new knowledge using artificial intelligence techniques from previously captured data. Using this approach, the theme ‘Generated using artificial intelligence methods’ was identified. Although presented as distinct themes, some papers retrieved discuss combining more than one approach to capture knowledge. While no approach emerged as superior, two points arose from the literature. Firstly, human input was evident across themes, even with indirect approaches. Secondly, a range of challenges common among approaches was highlighted. These were (i) ‘Capturing an expert’s knowledge’- Difficulties surrounding capturing an expert’s knowledge related to identifying the ‘expert’ say from the very experienced and how to capture their tacit or difficult to articulate knowledge. (ii) ‘Confirming quality of knowledge’- Once captured, challenges noted surrounded how to validate knowledge captured and, therefore, quality. (iii) ‘Continual knowledge capture’- Once knowledge is captured, validated, and used in a system; however, the process is not complete. Healthcare is a knowledge-rich environment with new evidence emerging frequently. As such, knowledge needs to be reviewed, updated, or removed (redundancy) as appropriate. Although some methods were proposed to address this, such as plausible reasoning or case-based reasoning, conclusions could not be drawn from the papers retrieved. It was, therefore, highlighted as an area for future research. Conclusion: The results described two broad approaches – direct and indirect. Three themes were identified: ‘Researcher mediated capture (Direct)’; ‘Digital mediated capture (Direct)’ and ‘Generated using artificial intelligence methods (Indirect)’. While no single approach was deemed superior, common challenges noted among approaches were: ‘capturing an expert’s knowledge’, ‘confirming quality of knowledge’, and ‘continual knowledge capture’. However, continual knowledge capture was not fully explored in the papers retrieved and was highlighted as an important area for future research. Acknowledgments: This research is partially funded by the ADAPT Centre under the SFI Research Centres Programme (Grant 13/RC/2106) and is co-funded under the European Regional Development Fund.

Keywords: expert knowledge, healthcare, knowledge capture and knowledge management

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Authors: Dario Milani, Guido Morgenthal

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Fluid dynamic computation of wind caused forces on bluff bodies e.g light flexible civil structures or high incidence of ground approaching airplane wings, is one of the major criteria governing their design. For such structures a significant dynamic response may result, requiring the usage of small scale devices as guide-vanes in bridge design to control these effects. The focus of this paper is on the numerical simulation of the bluff body problem involving multiscale phenomena induced by small scale devices. One of the solution methods for the CFD simulation that is relatively successful in this class of applications is the Vortex Particle Method (VPM). The method is based on a grid free Lagrangian formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations, where the velocity field is modeled by particles representing local vorticity. These vortices are being convected due to the free stream velocity as well as diffused. This representation yields the main advantages of low numerical diffusion, compact discretization as the vorticity is strongly localized, implicitly accounting for the free-space boundary conditions typical for this class of FSI problems, and a natural representation of the vortex creation process inherent in bluff body flows. When the particle resolution reaches the Kolmogorov dissipation length, the method becomes a Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). However, it is crucial to note that any solution method aims at balancing the computational cost against the accuracy achievable. In the classical VPM method, if the fluid domain is discretized by Np particles, the computational cost is O(Np2). For the coupled FSI problem of interest, for example large structures such as long-span bridges, the aerodynamic behavior may be influenced or even dominated by small structural details such as barriers, handrails or fairings. For such geometrically complex and dimensionally large structures, resolving the complete domain with the conventional VPM particle discretization might become prohibitively expensive to compute even for moderate numbers of particles. It is possible to reduce this cost either by reducing the number of particles or by controlling its local distribution. It is also possible to increase the accuracy of the solution without increasing substantially the global computational cost by computing a correction of the particle-particle interaction in some regions of interest. In this paper different strategies are presented in order to extend the conventional VPM method to reduce the computational cost whilst resolving the required details of the flow. The methods include temporal sub stepping to increase the accuracy of the particles convection in certain regions as well as dynamically re-discretizing the particle map to locally control the global and the local amount of particles. Finally, these methods will be applied on a test case and the improvements in the efficiency as well as the accuracy of the proposed extension to the method are presented. The important benefits in terms of accuracy and computational cost of the combination of these methods will be thus presented as long as their relevant applications.

Keywords: adaptation, fluid dynamic, remeshing, substepping, vortex particle method

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Authors: Milica B. Veljković, Milica B. Simović, Marija M. Ćorović, Ana D. Milivojević, Anja I. Petrov, Katarina M. Banjanac, Dejan I. Bezbradica

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In recent decades, the scientific community has recognized the growing importance of prebiotics, and therefore, numerous studies are focused on their economic production due to their low presence in natural resources. It has been confirmed that prebiotics is a source of energy for probiotics in the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) and enable their proliferation, consequently leading to the normal functioning of the intestinal microbiota. Also, products of their fermentation are short-chain fatty acids (SCFA), which play a key role in maintaining and improving the health not only of the GIT but also of the whole organism. Among several confirmed prebiotics, fructooligosaccharides (FOS) are considered interesting candidates for use in a wide range of products in the food industry. They are characterized as low-calorie and non-cariogenic substances that represent an adequate sugar substitute and can be considered suitable for use in products intended for diabetics. The subject of this research will be the production of FOS by transforming sucrose using a fructosyltransferase (FTase) present in commercial preparation Pectinex® Ultra SP-L, with special emphasis on the development of adequate FTase immobilization method that would enable selective isolation of the enzyme responsible for the synthesis of FOS from the complex enzymatic mixture. This would lead to considerable enzyme purification and allow its direct incorporation into different sucrose-based products without the fear that the action of the other hydrolytic enzymes may adversely affect the products' functional characteristics. Accordingly, the possibility of selective immobilization of the enzyme using support with primary amino groups, Purolite® A109, which was previously activated and modified using glutaraldehyde (GA), was investigated. In the initial phase of the research, the effects of individual immobilization parameters such as pH, enzyme concentration, and immobilization time were investigated to optimize the process using support chemically activated with 15% and 0.5% GA to form dimers and monomers, respectively. It was determined that highly active immobilized preparations (371.8 IU/g of support - dimer and 213.8 IU/g of support – monomer) were achieved under acidic conditions (pH 4) provided that an enzyme concentration was 50 mg/g of support after 7 h and 3 h, respectively. Bearing in mind the obtained results of the expressed activity, it is noticeable that the formation of dimers showed higher reactivity compared to the form of monomers. Also, in the case of support modification using 15% GA, the value of the ratio of FTase and pectinase (as dominant enzyme mixture component) activity immobilization yields was 16.45, indicating the high feasibility of selective immobilization of FTase on modified polystyrene resin. After obtaining immobilized preparations of satisfactory features, they were tested in a reaction of FOS synthesis under determined optimal conditions. The maximum FOS yields of approximately 50% of total carbohydrates in the reaction mixture were recorded after 21 h. Finally, it can be concluded that the examined immobilization method yielded highly active, stable and, more importantly, refined enzyme preparation that can be further utilized on a larger scale for the development of continual processes for FOS synthesis, as well as for modification of different sucrose-based mediums.

Keywords: chemical modification, fructooligosaccharides, glutaraldehyde, immobilization of fructosyltransferase

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Authors: Akane Uda, Ami Tabata, Mi An, Misa Komaki, Ryotaro Ito, Mayumi Inoue, Takehiro Sasai, Yusuke Kusano, Toshihiro Kato

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Early intervention is recommended for children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and an increasing number of children have received support and intervention before school age in recent years. In this study, we systematically reviewed preschool interventions focused on repetitive behaviors observed in children with ASD, which are often observed at younger ages. Inclusion criteria were as follows : (1) Child of preschool status (age ≤ 7 years) with a diagnosis of ASD (including autism, Asperger's, and pervasive developmental disorder) or a parent (caregiver) with a preschool child with ASD, (2) Physician-confirmed diagnosis of ASD (autism, Asperger's, and pervasive developmental disorder), (3) Interventional studies for repetitive behaviors, (4) Original articles published within the past 10 years (2012 or later), (5) Written in English and Japanese. Exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) Systematic reviews or meta-analyses, (2) Conference reports or books. We carefully scrutinized databases to remove duplicate references and used a two-step screening process to select papers. The primary screening included close scrutiny of titles and abstracts to exclude articles that did not meet the eligibility criteria. During the secondary screening, we carefully read the complete text to assess eligibility, which was double-checked by six members at the laboratory. Disagreements were resolved through consensus-based discussion. Our search yielded 304 papers, of which nine were included in the study. The level of evidence was as follows: three randomized controlled trials (level 2), four pre-post studies (level 4b), and two case reports (level 5). Seven articles selected for this study described the effectiveness of interventions. Interventions for repetitive behaviors in preschool children with ASD were categorized as five interventions that directly involved the child and four educational programs for caregivers and parents. Studies that directly intervened with children used early intensive intervention based on applied behavior analysis (Early Start Denver Model, Early Intensive Behavioral Intervention, and the Picture Exchange Communication System) and individualized education based on sensory integration. Educational interventions for caregivers included two methods; (a) education regarding combined methods and practices of applied behavior analysis in addition to classification and coping methods for repetitive behaviors, and (b) education regarding evaluation methods and practices based on children’s developmental milestones in play. With regard to the neurophysiological basis of repetitive behaviors, environmental factors are implicated as possible contributors. We assumed that applied behavior analysis was shown to be effective in reducing repetitive behaviors because analysis focused on the interaction between the individual and the environment. Additionally, with regard to educational interventions for caregivers, the intervention was shown to promote behavioral change in children based on the caregivers' understanding of the classification of repetitive behaviors and the children’s developmental milestones in play and adjustment of the person-environment context led to a reduction in repetitive behaviors.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, early intervention, repetitive behaviors, systematic review

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Authors: Swadha Singh

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International Solar Alliance is the foremost treaty-based global organization concerned with tapping the potential of sun-abundant nations between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn and enables co-operation among them. As a founding member of the International Solar Alliance, India exhibits its positioning as an upcoming leader in clean energy. India has set ambitious goals and targets to expand the share of solar in its energy mix and is playing a proactive role both at the regional and global levels. ISA aims to serve multiple goals- bring about scale commercialization of solar power, boost domestic manufacturing, and leverage solar diplomacy in African countries, amongst others. Against this backdrop, this paper attempts to examine the ways in which ISA as an intergovernmental organization under Indian leadership can leverage the cause of clean energy (solar) diplomacy and effectively shape partnerships and collaborations with other developing countries in terms of sharing solar technology, capacity building, risk mitigation, mobilizing financial investment and providing an aggregate market. A more specific focus of ISA is on the developing countries, which in the absence of a collective, are constrained by technology and capital scarcity, despite being naturally endowed with solar resources. Solar rich but finance-constrained economies face political risk, foreign exchange risk, and off-taker risk. Scholars argue that aligning India’s climate change discourse and growth prospects in its engagements, collaborations, and partnerships at the bilateral, multilateral and regional level can help promote trade, attract investments, and promote resilient energy transition both in India and in partner countries. For developing countries, coming together in an action-oriented way on issues of climate and clean energy is particularly important since it is developing and underdeveloped countries that face multiple and coalescing challenges such as the adverse impact of climate change, uneven and low access to reliable energy, and pressing employment needs. Investing in green recovery is agreed to be an assured way to create resilient value chains, create sustainable livelihoods, and help mitigate climate threats. If India is able to ‘green its growth’ process, it holds the potential to emerge as a climate leader internationally. It can use its experience in the renewable sector to guide other developing countries in balancing multiple similar objectives of development, energy security, and sustainability. The challenges underlying solar expansion in India have lessons to offer other developing countries, giving India an opportunity to assume a leadership role in solar diplomacy and expand its geopolitical influence through inter-governmental organizations such as ISA. It is noted that India has limited capacity to directly provide financial funds and support and is not a leading manufacturer of cheap solar equipment, as does China; however, India can nonetheless leverage its large domestic market to scale up the commercialization of solar power and offer insights and learnings to similarly placed abundant solar countries. The paper examines the potential of and limits placed on India’s solar diplomacy.

Keywords: climate diplomacy, energy security, solar diplomacy, renewable energy

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Authors: Alfredo Fortunato, Carmelofrancesco Origlia, Sara Laurita, Rossella Nicoletti

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In the post-pandemic recovery phase of tourism, the role of a Destination Management Organization (DMO) as a coordinated management system of all the elements that make up a destination (attractions, access, marketing, human resources, brand, pricing, etc.) is also becoming relevant for local territories. The objective of a DMO is to maximize the visitor's perception of value and quality while ensuring the competitiveness and sustainability of the destination, as well as the long-term preservation of its natural and cultural assets, and to catalyze benefits for the local economy and residents. In carrying out the multiple functions to which it is called, the DMO can leverage a collective intelligence that comes from the ability to pool information, explicit and tacit knowledge, and relationships of the various stakeholders: policymakers, public managers and officials, entrepreneurs in the tourism supply chain, researchers, data journalists, schools, associations and committees, citizens, etc. The DMO potentially has at its disposal large volumes of data and many of them at low cost, that need to be properly processed to produce value. Based on these assumptions, the paper presents a conceptual framework for building an information system to support the DMO in the intelligent management of a tourist destination tested in an area of southern Italy. The approach adopted is data-informed and consists of four phases: (1) formulation of the knowledge problem (analysis of policy documents and industry reports; focus groups and co-design with stakeholders; definition of information needs and key questions); (2) research and metadatation of relevant sources (reconnaissance of official sources, administrative archives and internal DMO sources); (3) gap analysis and identification of unconventional information sources (evaluation of traditional sources with respect to the level of consistency with information needs, the freshness of information and granularity of data; enrichment of the information base by identifying and studying web sources such as Wikipedia, Google Trends, Booking.com, Tripadvisor, websites of accommodation facilities and online newspapers); (4) definition of the set of indicators and construction of the information base (specific definition of indicators and procedures for data acquisition, transformation, and analysis). The framework derived consists of 6 thematic areas (accommodation supply, cultural heritage, flows, value, sustainability, and enabling factors), each of which is divided into three domains that gather a specific information need to be represented by a scheme of questions to be answered through the analysis of available indicators. The framework is characterized by a high degree of flexibility in the European context, given that it can be customized for each destination by adapting the part related to internal sources. Application to the case study led to the creation of a decision support system that allows: •integration of data from heterogeneous sources, including through the execution of automated web crawling procedures for data ingestion of social and web information; •reading and interpretation of data and metadata through guided navigation paths in the key of digital story-telling; •implementation of complex analysis capabilities through the use of data mining algorithms such as for the prediction of tourist flows.

Keywords: collective intelligence, data framework, destination management, smart tourism

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Authors: Kimberly Samaha

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In order to attract new types of investors into the emerging Bio-Economy, a new set of metrics and measurement system is needed to better quantify the environmental, social and economic impacts of circular zero-waste design. The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding the use of biomass as a feedstock for power plants. Lack of an economically-viable business model for bioenergy facilities has resulted in the continuation of idled and decommissioned plants. In particular, the forestry-based plants which have been an invaluable outlet for woody biomass surplus, forest health improvement, timber production enhancement, and especially reduction of wildfire risk. This study looked at repurposing existing biomass-energy plants into Circular Zero-Waste Bio-Hub Ecosystems. A Bio-Hub model that first targets a ‘whole-tree’ approach and then looks at the circular economics of co-hosting diverse industries (wood processing, aquaculture, agriculture) in the vicinity of the Biomass Power Plants facilities. It proposes not only models for integration of forestry, aquaculture, and agriculture in cradle-to-cradle linkages of what have typically been linear systems, but the proposal also allows for the early measurement of the circularity and impact of resource use and investment risk mitigation, for these systems. Typically, life cycle analyses measure environmental impacts of different industrial production stages and are not integrated with indicators of material use circularity. This concept paper proposes the further development of a new set of metrics that would illustrate not only the typical life-cycle analysis (LCA), which shows the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also the zero-waste circularity measures of mass balance of the full value chain of the raw material and energy content/caloric value. These new measures quantify key impacts in making hyper-efficient use of natural resources and eliminating waste to landfills. The project utilized traditional LCA using the GREET model where the standalone biomass energy plant case was contrasted with the integration of a jet-fuel biorefinery. The methodology was then expanded to include combinations of co-hosts that optimize the life cycle of woody biomass from tree to energy, CO₂, heat and wood ash both from an energy/caloric value and for mass balance to include reuse of waste streams which are typically landfilled. The major findings of both a formal LCA study resulted in the masterplan for the first Bio-Hub to be built in West Enfield, Maine. Bioenergy facilities are currently at a critical juncture where they have an opportunity to be repurposed into efficient, profitable and socially responsible investments, or be idled and scrapped. If proven as a model, the expedited roll-out of these innovative scenarios can set a new standard for circular zero-waste projects that advance the critical transition from the current ‘take-make-dispose’ paradigm inherent in the energy, forestry and food industries to a more sustainable bio-economy paradigm where waste streams become valuable inputs, supporting local and rural communities in simple, sustainable ways.

Keywords: bio-economy, biomass energy, financing, metrics

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Authors: Ashok Kumar Lonavath, V. Sathish Kumar

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Urban sprawl is the uncontrolled and uncoordinated outgrowth of towns and cities. The process of urban sprawl can be described by change in pattern over time, like proportional increase in built-up surface to population leading to rapid urban spatial expansion. Significant economic and livelihood opportunities in the urban areas results in lack of basic amenities due to the unplanned growth The patterns, processes, dynamic causes and consequences of sprawl can be explored and designed with the help of spatial planning support system. In India context the urban area is defined as the population more than 5000, density more than 400 persons per sq. km and 75% of the population is involved in non-agricultural occupations. India’s urban population is increasing at the rate of 2.35% pa. The class I town’s population of India according to 2011 census is 18.8% that accounts for 60.4% of total unban population. Similarly in Erstwhile Andhra Pradesh it is 22.9% which accounts for 68.8% of total urban population. Suryapet town has historical recognition as ‘Gate Way of Telangana’ in the Indian State of Andhra Pradesh. The Municipality was constituted in 1952 as Grade-III, later upgraded into Grade-II in 1984 and to Grade-I in 1998. The area is 35 Sq.kms. Three major tanks located in three different directions and Musi River is flowing from a distance of 8 kms. The average ground water table is about 50m below ground. It is a fast growing town with a population of 1, 06,805 and 25,448 households. Density is 3051pp sq km, It is a Class I city as per population census. It secured the ISO 14001-2004 certificate for establishing and maintaining an environment-friendly system for solid waste disposal. It is the first municipality in the country to receive such a certificate. It won HUDCO award under environment management, award of appreciation and cash from Ministry of Housing and Poverty Elevation from Government of India and undivided Andhra Pradesh under UN Human Settlement Programme, Greentech Excellance award, Supreme Courts appreciation for solid waste management. Foreign delegates from different countries and also from various other states of India visited Suryapet municipality for study tour and training programs as part of their official visit Suryapet is located at 17°5’ North Latitude and 79°37’ East Longitude. The average elevation is 266m, annual mean temperature is 36°C and average rainfall is 821.0 mm. The people of this town are engaged in Commercial and agriculture activities hence the town has become a centre for marketing and stocking agricultural produce. It is also educational centre in this region. The present paper on urban sprawl is a theoretical framework to analyze the interaction of planning and governance on the extent of outgrowth and level of services. The GIS techniques, SOI Toposheet, satellite imageries and image analysis techniques are extensively used to explore the sprawl and measure the urban land-use. This paper concludes outlining the challenges in addressing urban sprawl while ensuring adequate level of services that planning and governance have to ensure towards achieving sustainable urbanization.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, urban sprawl, urbanization

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Authors: Tzipi Eshet

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The primary objectives of this work are the examination of public preferences and attributed importance to different characteristics of coastal cliff protection alternatives, and drawing conclusions about the applicable alternative in Beit-Yanai beach. Erosion of coastal cliffs is a natural phenomenon that occurs in many places in the world. This creates problems along the coastlines, which are densely populated areas with highly developed economic activity. In recent years, various aspects of the aeolianite cliffs along the Israeli coast have been studied extensively. There is a consensus among researchers regarding a general trend of cliff retreat. This affects civilian infrastructure, wildlife habitats and heritage values, as well as Increases the risk to human life. The Israeli government, committed to the integrated coastal zones management approach, decided on a policy and guidelines to deal with cliff erosion, which includes establishing physical protection on land and in the sea, sand nourishment and runoff drainage. Physical protection solutions to reduce the rate of retreat of the cliffs are considerably important both for planning authorities and visitors to the beach. Direct costs of different protection alternatives, as well as external costs and benefits, may vary, thus affecting consumer preferences. Planning and execution of sustainable coastal cliff protection alternatives must take into account the different characteristics and their impact on aspects of economics, environment and leisure. The rocky shore of Beit-Yanai Beach was chosen as a case study to examine the nature of the influence of various protective solutions on consumer preferences. This beach is located in the center of Israel's coastline, and acts as a focus of attraction for recreation, land and sea sports, and educational activities as well. If no action will be taken, cliff retreat will continue. A survey was conducted to reveal the importance of coastal protection alternatives characteristics and the visual preferences to visitors at beach Beit-Yanai and residents living on the cliff (N=287). Preferences and willingness-to-pay were explored using Contingent-Ranking and Choice-Experiments techniques. Results show that visitors’ and residents’ willingness-to-pay for coastal cliff protection alternatives is affected both by financial and environmental aspects, as well as leisure. They prefer coastal cliff protection alternatives that are not visible and do not need constant maintenance, do not affect the quality of seawater or the habitats of wildlife and do not lower the security level of the swimmers. No significant difference was found comparing willingness-to-pay among local and non-local users. Additionally, they mostly prefer a protection solution which is integrated in the coastal landscape and maintains the natural appearance of the beach. Of the possible protection alternatives proposed for the protection of the cliff in Beit Yanai beach are two techniques that meet public preferences: rock revetments and submerged detached breakwaters. Results indicate that the visiting public prefer the implementation of these protection alternatives and will be willing to pay for them. Future actions to reduce retreat rate in Beit-Yanai have to consider implications on the economic, environmental and social conditions, along with weighting public interest against the interest of the individual.

Keywords: contingent-ranking, choice-experiments, coastal cliff protection, erosion of coastal cliffs, environment

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Authors: Anubhav Kumar Dwivedi, Arshad Khan, S. N. Tripathi, Manish Joshi, Gaurav Mishra, Dinesh Nath, Naveen Tiwari, B. K. Sapra

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In a nuclear reactor accident scenario, a large number of fission products may release to the piping system of the primary heat transport. The released fission products, mostly in the form of the aerosol, get deposited on the inner surface of the piping system mainly due to gravitational settling and thermophoretic deposition. The removal processes in the complex piping system are controlled to a large extent by the thermal-hydraulic conditions like temperature, pressure, and flow rates. These parameters generally vary with time and therefore must be carefully monitored to predict the aerosol behavior in the piping system. The removal process of aerosol depends on the size of particles that determines how many particles get deposit or travel across the bends and reach to the other end of the piping system. The released aerosol gets deposited onto the inner surface of the piping system by various mechanisms like gravitational settling, Brownian diffusion, thermophoretic deposition, and by other deposition mechanisms. To quantify the correct estimate of deposition, the identification and understanding of the aforementioned deposition mechanisms are of great importance. These mechanisms are significantly affected by different flow and thermodynamic conditions. Thermophoresis also plays a significant role in particle deposition. In the present study, a series of experiments were performed in the piping system of the National Aerosol Test Facility (NATF), BARC using metal aerosols (zinc) in dry environments to study the spatial distribution of particles mass and number concentration, and their depletion due to various removal mechanisms in the piping system. The experiments were performed at two different carrier gas flow rates. The commercial CFD software FLUENT is used to determine the distribution of temperature, velocity, pressure, and turbulence quantities in the piping system. In addition to the in-built models for turbulence, heat transfer and flow in the commercial CFD code (FLUENT), a new sub-model PBM (population balance model) is used to describe the coagulation process and to compute the number concentration along with the size distribution at different sections of the piping. In the sub-model coagulation kernels are incorporated through user-defined function (UDF). The experimental results are compared with the CFD modeled results. It is found that most of the Zn particles (more than 35 %) deposit near the inlet of the plenum chamber and a low deposition is obtained in piping sections. The MMAD decreases along the length of the test assembly, which shows that large particles get deposited or removed in the course of flow, and only fine particles travel to the end of the piping system. The effect of a bend is also observed, and it is found that the relative loss in mass concentration at bends is more in case of a high flow rate. The simulation results show that the thermophoresis and depositional effects are more dominating for the small and larger sizes as compared to the intermediate particles size. Both SEM and XRD analysis of the collected samples show the samples are highly agglomerated non-spherical and composed mainly of ZnO. The coupled model framed in this work could be used as an important tool for predicting size distribution and concentration of some other aerosol released during a reactor accident scenario.

Keywords: aerosol, CFD, deposition, coagulation

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Authors: Michael Josef Schwerer, Oliver Peschel

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Background: The sense and purpose of forensic postmortem examinations are undoubtedly the same in Institutes of Legal Medicine all over the world. Cause and manner of death must be determined, persons responsible for unnatural death must be brought to justice, and accidents demand changes in the respective scenarios to avoid future mishaps. The latter particularly concerns aircraft accidents, not only regarding consequences from criminal or civil law but also in pursuance of the International Civil Aviation Authority’s regulations, which demand lessons from mishap investigations to improve flight safety. Irrespective of the distinct circumstances of a given casualty or the respective questions in subsequent death investigations, a forensic autopsy is the basis for all further casework, the clue to otherwise hidden solutions, and the crucial limitation for final success when not all possible findings have been properly collected. This also implies that the targeted work of police forces and expert witnesses strongly depends on the quality of forensic pathology practice. Deadly events in foreign countries, which lead to investigations not only abroad but also in Germany, can be challenging in this context. Frequently, second-look autopsies after the repatriation of the deceased to Germany are requested by the legal authorities to ensure proper and profound documentation of all relevant findings. Aims and Methods: To validate forensic postmortem practice abroad, a retrospective study using the findings in the corresponding second-look autopsies in the Institute of Legal Medicine Munich over the last 20 years was carried out. New findings unreported in the previous autopsy were recorded and judged for their relevance to solving the respective case. Further, the condition of the corpse at the time of the second autopsy was rated to discuss artifacts mimicking evidence or the possibility of lost findings resulting from, e.g., decomposition. Recommendations for future handling of death cases abroad and efficient autopsy practice were pursued. Results and Discussion: Our re-evaluation confirmed a high quality of autopsy practice abroad in the vast majority of cases. However, in some casework, incomplete documentation of pathology findings was revealed along with either insufficient or misconducted dissection of organs. Further, some of the bodies showed missing parts of some organs, most probably resulting from sampling for histology studies during the first postmortem. For the aeromedical evaluation of a decedent’s health status prior to an aviation mishap, particularly lost or obscured findings in the heart, lungs, and brain impeded expert testimony. Moreover, incomplete fixation of the body or body parts for repatriation was seen in several cases. This particularly involved previously dissected organs deposited back into the body cavities at the end of the first autopsy. Conclusions and Recommendations: Detailed preparation in the first forensic autopsy avoids the necessity of a second-look postmortem in the majority of cases. To limit decomposition changes during repatriation from abroad, special care must be taken to include pre-dissected organs in the chemical fixation process, particularly when they are separated from the blood vessels and just deposited back into the body cavities.

Keywords: autopsy practice, second-look autopsy, retrospective study, quality standards, decomposition changes, repatriation

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Zofija Tupikovskaja-Omovie, David Tyler, Sam Dhanapala, Steve Hayes

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The UK is leading in online retail and mobile adoption. However, there is a dearth of information relating to mobile apparel retail, and developing an understanding about consumer browsing and purchase behavior in m-retail channel would provide apparel marketers, mobile website and app developers with the necessary understanding of consumers’ needs. Despite the rapid growth of mobile retail businesses, no published study has examined shopping behaviour on fashion mobile websites and apps. A mixed method approach helped to understand why fashion consumers prefer websites on mobile devices, when mobile apps are also available. The following research methods were employed: survey, eye-tracking experiments, observation, and interview with retrospective think aloud. The mobile gaze tracking device by SensoMotoric Instruments was used to understand frustrations in navigation and other issues facing consumers in mobile channel. This method helped to validate and compliment other traditional user-testing approaches in order to optimize user experience and enhance the development of mobile retail channel. The study involved eight participants - females aged 18 to 35 years old, who are existing mobile shoppers. The participants used the Topshop mobile app and website on a smart phone to complete a task according to a specified scenario leading to a purchase. The comparative study was based on: duration and time spent at different stages of the shopping journey, number of steps involved and product pages visited, search approaches used, layout and visual clues, as well as consumer perceptions and expectations. The results from the data analysis show significant differences in consumer behaviour when using a mobile app or website on a smart phone. Moreover, two types of problems were identified, namely technical issues and human errors. Having a mobile app does not guarantee success in satisfying mobile fashion consumers. The differences in the layout and visual clues seem to influence the overall shopping experience on a smart phone. The layout of search results on the website was different from the mobile app. Therefore, participants, in most cases, behaved differently on different platforms. The number of product pages visited on the mobile app was triple the number visited on the website due to a limited visibility of products in the search results. Although, the data on traffic trends held by retailers to date, including retail sector breakdowns for visits and views, data on device splits and duration, might seem a valuable source of information, it cannot explain why consumers visit many product pages, stay longer on the website or mobile app, or abandon the basket. A comprehensive list of pros and cons was developed by highlighting issues for website and mobile app, and recommendations provided. The findings suggest that fashion retailers need to be aware of actual consumers’ behaviour on the mobile channel and their expectations in order to offer a seamless shopping experience. Added to which is the challenge of retaining existing and acquiring new customers. There seem to be differences in the way fashion consumers search and shop on mobile, which need to be explored in further studies.

Keywords: consumer behavior, eye-tracking technology, fashion retail, mobile app, m-retail, smart phones, topshop, user experience, website

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Authors: Diana Reckien

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Vulnerability assessments are increasingly used to support policy-making in complex environments, like urban areas. Usually, vulnerability studies include the construction of aggregate (sub-) indices and the subsequent mapping of indices across an area of interest. Vulnerability studies show a couple of advantages: they are great communication tools, can inform a wider general debate about environmental issues, and can help allocating and efficiently targeting scarce resources for adaptation policy and planning. However, they also have a number of challenges: Vulnerability assessments are constructed on the basis of a wide range of methodologies and there is no single framework or methodology that has proven to serve best in certain environments, indicators vary highly according to the spatial scale used, different variables and metrics produce different results, and aggregate or composite vulnerability indicators that are mapped easily distort or bias the picture of vulnerability as they hide the underlying causes of vulnerability and level out conflicting reasons of vulnerability in space. So, there is urgent need to further develop the methodology of vulnerability studies towards a common framework, which is one reason of the paper. We introduce a social vulnerability approach, which is compared with other approaches of bio-physical or sectoral vulnerability studies relatively developed in terms of a common methodology for index construction, guidelines for mapping, assessment of sensitivity, and verification of variables. Two approaches are commonly pursued in the literature. The first one is an additive approach, in which all potentially influential variables are weighted according to their importance for the vulnerability aspect, and then added to form a composite vulnerability index per unit area. The second approach includes variable reduction, mostly Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that reduces the number of variables that are interrelated into a smaller number of less correlating components, which are also added to form a composite index. We test these two approaches of constructing indices on the area of New York City as well as two different metrics of variables used as input and compare the outcome for the 5 boroughs of NY. Our analysis yields that the mapping exercise yields particularly different results in the outer regions and parts of the boroughs, such as Outer Queens and Staten Island. However, some of these parts, particularly the coastal areas receive the highest attention in the current adaptation policy. We imply from this that the current adaptation policy and practice in NY might need to be discussed, as these outer urban areas show relatively low social vulnerability as compared with the more central parts, i.e. the high dense areas of Manhattan, Central Brooklyn, Central Queens and the Southern Bronx. The inner urban parts receive lesser adaptation attention, but bear a higher risk of damage in case of hazards in those areas. This is conceivable, e.g., during large heatwaves, which would more affect more the inner and poorer parts of the city as compared with the outer urban areas. In light of the recent planning practice of NY one needs to question and discuss who in NY makes adaptation policy for whom, but the presented analyses points towards an under representation of the needs of the socially vulnerable population, such as the poor, the elderly, and ethnic minorities, in the current adaptation practice in New York City.

Keywords: vulnerability mapping, social vulnerability, additive approach, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), New York City, United States, adaptation, social sensitivity

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Authors: Ayoti Banerjee, Meenakshi Banerjee

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The study of metamorphic reaction textures is important in contributing to our understanding of the evolution of metamorphic terranes. Where preserved, they provide information on changes in the P-T conditions during the metamorphic history of the rock, and thus allow us to speculate on the P-T-t evolution of the terrane. Mafic dykes have attracted the attention of petrologists because they act as window to mantle. This rock represents a mafic dyke of doleritic composition. It is fine to medium grained in which clinopyroxene are enclosed by the lath shaped plagioclase grains to form spectacular ophitic texture. At places, sub ophitic texture was also observed. Grains of pyroxene and plagioclase show very less deformation typically plagioclase showing deformed lamella along with plagioclase-clinopyroxene-phyric granoblastic fabric within a groundmass of feldspar microphenocrysts and Fe–Ti oxides. Both normal and reverse zoning were noted in the plagioclase laths. The clinopyroxene grains contain exsolved phases such as orthopyroxene, plagioclase, magnetite, ilmenite along the cleavage traces and the orthopyroxene lamella form granules in the periphery of the clinopyroxene grains. Garnet corona also develops preferentially around plagioclase at the contact of clinopyroxene, ilmenite or magnetite. Tiny quartz and K-fs grains showed symplectic intergrowth with garnet at a few places. The product quartz formed along with garnet rims the coronal garnet and the reacting clinopyroxene. Thin amphibole corona formed along the periphery of deformed plagioclase and clinopyroxene occur as patches over the magmatic minerals. The amphibole coronas cannot be assigned to a late magmatic stage and are interpreted as reactive being restricted to the contact between clinopyroxene and plagioclase, thus postdating the crystallization of both. The amphibole and garnet do not share grain boundary in the entire rock and is thus pointing towards simultaneous crystallization. Olivine is absent. Spectacular myrmekitic growth of orthoclase and quartz rimming the plagioclase is consistent with the potash metasomatic effects that is also found in other rocks of this region. These textural features are consistent with a phase of fluid induced metamorphism (retrogression). But the appearance of coronal garnet and amphibole exclusive of each other reflects the participation if Ti as the prime reason. Presence of Ti as a reactant phase is a must for amphibole forming reactions whereas it is not so in case of garnet forming reactions although the reactants are the same plagioclase and clinopyroxene in both cases. These findings are well validated by petrographical and textural analysis. In order to obtain balanced chemical reactions that explain formation of amphibole and garnet in the mafic dyke rocks a matrix operation technique called Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) was adopted utilizing the measured chemical compositions of the minerals. The computer program C-Space was used for this purpose and the required compositional matrix. Data fed to C-Space was after doing cation-calculation of the oxide percentages obtained from EPMA analysis. The Garnet-Clinopyroxene geothermometer yielded a temperature of 650 degrees Celsius. The Garnet-Clinopyroxene-Plagioclase geobarometer and Al-in amphibole yielded roughly 7.5 kbar pressure.

Keywords: corona, dolerite, geothermometer, metasomatism, metamorphic reaction texture, retrogression

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Authors: Sara Saboonian, Pierre Filion

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The dispersed-suburban model has been the dominant one across North America for the past seventy years, characterized by automobile reliance, low density, and land-use specialization. Two planning models have emerged as possible alternatives to address the ills inflicted by this development pattern. First, there is intensification, which promotes efficient infrastructure by connecting high-density, multi-functional, and walkable nodes with public transit services within the suburban landscape. Second is green infrastructure, which provides environmental health and human well-being by preserving and restoring ecosystem services. This research studies incompatibilities and the possibility of amalgamating the two alternatives in an attempt to develop a comprehensive alternative to suburban model that advocates density, multi-functionality and transit- and pedestrian-conduciveness, with measures capable of mitigating the adverse environmental impacts of compactness. The research investigates three Canadian urban growth centers, where intensification is the current planning practice, and the awareness of green infrastructure benefits is on the rise. However, these three centers are contrasted by their development stage, the presence or absence of protected natural land, their environmental approach, and their adverse environmental consequences according to the planning cannons of different periods. The methods include reviewing the literature on green infrastructure planning, criticizing the Ontario provincial plans for intensification, surveying residents’ preferences for alternative models, and interviewing officials who deal with the local planning for the centers. Moreover, the research draws on recalling debates between New Urbanism and Landscape/Ecological Urbanism. The case studies expose the difficulties in creating urban growth centres that accommodate green infrastructure while adhering to intensification principles. First, the dominant status of intensification and the obstacles confronting intensification have monopolized the planners’ concerns. Second, the tension between green infrastructure and intensification explains the absence of the green infrastructure typologies that correspond to intensification-compatible forms and dynamics. Finally, the lack of highlighted social-economic benefits of green infrastructure reduces residents’ participation. Moreover, the results from the research provide insight into predominating urbanization theories, New Urbanism and Landscape/Ecological Urbanism. In order to understand political, planning, and ecological dynamics of such blending, dexterous context-specific planning is required. Findings suggest the influence of the following factors on amalgamating intensification and green infrastructure. Initially, producing ecosystem services-based justifications for green infrastructure development in the intensification context provides an expert-driven backbone for the implementation programs. This knowledge-base should be translated to effectively imbue different urban stakeholders. Moreover, due to the limited greenfields in intensified areas, spatial distribution and development of multi-level corridors such as pedestrian-hospitable settings and transportation networks along green infrastructure measures are required. Finally, to ensure the long-term integrity of implemented green infrastructure measures, significant investment in public engagement and education, as well as clarification of management responsibilities is essential.

Keywords: ecosystem services, green infrastructure, intensification, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 355

Authors: Hayden R Schott, John M Felder III

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Introduction: Chronic lower extremity wounds in the diabetic and vasculopathic populations are associated with a high degree of morbidity.When wounds require more extensive treatment than can be offered by wound care centers, more aggressive solutions involve local tissue transfer and microsurgical free tissue transfer for achieving definitive soft tissue coverage. These procedures of autologous tissue transfer (ATT) offer resilient, soft tissue coverage of limb-threatening wounds and confer promising limb salvage rates. However, chronic osteomyelitis and recalcitrant soft tissue infections are common in severe diabetic foot wounds and serve to significantly complicate ATT procedures. Stimulan is a resorbable calcium sulfate antibiotic carrier. The use of stimulan antibiotic beads to treat chronic osteomyelitis is well established in the orthopedic and plastic surgery literature. In these procedures, the beads are placed beneath the skin flap to directly deliver antibiotics to the infection site. The purpose of this study was to quantify the success of Stimulan antibiotic beads in treating recalcitrant infections in patients with diabetic foot wounds receiving ATT. Methods: A retrospective review of clinical and demographic information was performed on patients who underwent ATT with the placement of Stimulan antibiotic beads for attempted limb salvage from 2018-21. Patients were analyzed for preoperative wound characteristics, demographics, infection recurrence, and adverse outcomes as a result of product use. The primary endpoint was 90 day infection recurrence, with secondary endpoints including 90 day complications. Outcomes were compared using basic statistics and Fisher’s exact tests. Results: In this time span, 14 patients were identified. At the time of surgery, all patients exhibited clinical signs of active infection, including positive cultures and erythema. 57% of patients (n=8) exhibited chronic osteomyelitis prior to surgery, and 71% (n=10) had exposed bone at the wound base. In 57% of patients (n=8), Stimulan beads were placed beneath a free tissue flap and beneath a pedicle tissue flap in 42% of patients (n=6). In all patients, Stimulan beads were only applied once. Recurrent infections were observed in 28% of patients (n=4) at 90 days post-op, and flap nonadherence was observed in 7% (n=1). These were the only Stimulan related complications observed. Ultimately, lower limb salvage was successful in 85% of patients (n=12). Notably, there was no significant association between the preoperative presence of osteomyelitis and recurrent infections. Conclusions: The use of Stimulanantiobiotic beads to treat recalcitrant infections in patients receiving definitive skin coverage of diabetic foot wounds does not appear to demonstrate unnecessary risk. Furthermore, the lack of significance between the preoperative presence of osteomyelitis and recurrent infections indicates the successful use of Stimulan to dampen infection in patients with osteomyelitis, as is consistent with the literature. Further research is needed to identify Stimulan as the significant contributor to infection treatment using future cohort and case control studies with more patients. Nonetheless, the use of Stimulan antibiotic beads in patients with diabetic foot wounds demonstrates successful infection suppression and maintenance of definitive soft tissue coverage.

Keywords: wound care, stimulan antibiotic beads, free tissue transfer, plastic surgery, wound, infection

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Yael Rieder, Yael Gilboa, S. O. Adva, Efrat Halevi, Ronnie Tepper

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Background: Operation of ultrasound equipment is a core skill for many clinical specialties. As part of the training program at -Simultech- a simulation center for Ob\Gyn at the Meir Medical Center, Israel, teaching how to operate ultrasound equipment requires dealing with misunderstandings of spatial and 3D orientation, failure of the operator to hold a transducer correctly, and limited ability to evaluate the data on the screen. We have developed a platform intended to endow physicians and sonographers with clinical and operational skills of obstetric ultrasound. Simultech's simulations are focused on medical knowledge, risk management, technology operations and physician-patient communication. The simulations encompass extreme work conditions. Setup: Between eight and ten of the eight hundred and fifty physicians and sonographers of the Clalit health services from seven hospitals and eight community centers across Israel, participate in individual Ob/Gyn training sessions each week. These include Ob/Gyn specialists, experts, interns, and sonographers. Innovative teaching and training methodologies: The six-hour training program includes: (1) An educational computer program that challenges trainees to deal with medical questions based upon ultrasound pictures and films. (2) Sophisticated hands-on simulators that challenge the trainees to practice correct grip of the transducer, elucidate pathology, and practice daily tasks such as biometric measurements and analysis of sonographic data. (3) Participation in a video-taped simulation which focuses on physician-patient communications. In the simulation, the physician is required to diagnose the clinical condition of a hired actress based on the data she provides and by evaluating the assigned ultrasound films accordingly. Giving ‘bad news’ to the patient may put the physician in a stressful situation that must be properly managed. (4) Feedback at the end of each phase is provided by a designated trainer, not a physician, who is specially qualified by Ob\Gyn senior specialists. (5) A group exercise in which the trainer presents a medico-legal case in order to encourage the participants to use their own experience and knowledge to conduct a productive ‘brainstorming’ session. Medical cases are presented and analyzed by the participants together with the trainer's feedback. Findings: (1) The training methods and content that Simultech provides allows trainees to review their medical and communications skills. (2) Simultech training sessions expose physicians to both basic and new, up-to-date cases, refreshing and expanding the trainee's knowledge. (3) Practicing on advanced simulators enables trainees to understand the sonographic space and to implement the basic principles of ultrasound. (4) Communications simulations were found to be beneficial for trainees who were unaware of their interpersonal skills. The trainer feedback, supported by the recorded simulation, allows the trainee to draw conclusions about his performance. Conclusion: Simultech was found to contribute to physicians at all levels of clinical expertise who deal with ultrasound. A break in daily routine together with attendance at a neutral educational center can vastly improve performance and outlook.

Keywords: medical training, simulations, ultrasound, Simultech

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Ishita Singh

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Social-dimension of Climate Change is no longer peripheral to Science, Technology and Innovation (STI). Indeed, STI is being mobilized to address small farmers’ vulnerability and adaptation to Climate Change. The experiences from the cold desert of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya illustrate the potential of STI to address the challenges of Climate Change and the needs of small farmers through the use of Artificial Glacier Techniques. Small farmers have a unique technique of water harvesting to augment irrigation, called “Artificial Glaciers” - an intricate network of water channels and dams along the upper slope of a valley that are located closer to villages and at lower altitudes than natural glaciers. It starts to melt much earlier and supplements additional irrigation to small farmers’ improving their livelihoods. Therefore, the issue of vulnerability, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategy needs to be analyzed in a local context and the communities as well as regions where people live. Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya provides a Case Study for exploring the ways in which adaptation to Climate Change is taking place at a community scale using Artificial Glacier Technology. With the above backdrop, an attempt has been made to analyze the rural poor households' vulnerability and adaptation practices to Climate Change using this technology, thereby drawing lessons on vulnerability-livelihood interactions in the cold desert of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya, India. The study is based on primary data and information collected from 675 households confined to 27 villages of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya, India. It reveals that 61.18% of the population is driving livelihoods from agriculture and allied activities. With increased irrigation potential due to the use of Artificial Glaciers, food security has been assured to 77.56% of households and health vulnerability has been reduced in 31% of households. Seasonal migration as a livelihood diversification mechanism has declined in nearly two-thirds of households, thereby improving livelihood strategies. Use of tactical adaptations by small farmers in response to persistent droughts, such as selling livestock, expanding agriculture lands, and use of relief cash and foods, have declined to 20.44%, 24.74% and 63% of households. However, these measures are unsustainable on a long-term basis. The role of policymakers and societal stakeholders becomes important in this context. To address livelihood challenges, the role of technology is critical in a multidisciplinary approach involving multilateral collaboration among different stakeholders. The presence of social entrepreneurs and new actors on the adaptation scene is necessary to bring forth adaptation measures. Better linkage between Science and Technology policies, together with other policies, should be encouraged. Better health care, access to safe drinking water, better sanitary conditions, and improved standards of education and infrastructure are effective measures to enhance a community’s adaptive capacity. However, social transfers for supporting climate adaptive capacity require significant amounts of additional investment. Developing institutional mechanisms for specific adaptation interventions can be one of the most effective ways of implementing a plan to enhance adaptation and build resilience.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, livelihood, stakeholders

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Muhammad Alhada Fuadilah Habib, Ayla Karina Budita, Cut Rizka Al Usrah, Mukhammad Fatkhullah, Kanita Khoirun Nisa, Siti Muslihatul Mukaromah

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In this contemporary era, the term of development often emphasised merely on the economic growth aspect. Development of a program often considered as superior by the government, in fact, it often raises various problems. The problems occur because the development policies determined by the government tend to favor private entrepreneurs and impose on the oppression toward the community. The development promised to prosper the community's life, turn out in fact of harming the community, threatening the survival of the community and damaging the ecosystem of nature where the community hangs their life to it. Nowadays many natural resources should be used for the community’s life prosperity. However, the prosperity is conquered by the private entrepreneurs that are regulated through the free market mechanism and wrapped in democratization. This condition actually is a form of neoliberalism that builds new administration order system which is far from the meaning of the word democracy. The government should play more role in protecting community's life and prosperity, but in fact, the government sides with the private entrepreneurs for the sake of the economic benefits regardless of other aspects of the community’s life. This unjustified condition presents a wide range of social movements from the community in response to the neoliberalis policy that actually eliminates the doctrine of community sovereignty. Social movements performed by Yogyakarta south coastal area community, as the focus of the discussion in this paper, is one of the community’s response toward the government policies related to the construction of the ferruginous sand quarry which is tend to favor on private entrepreneurs and highly prejudicing or even threatening the survival of Yogyakarta south coastal area community. The data collection in this study uses qualitative research methods with in-depth interview data collection techniques and purposive informant determination techniques. This method was chosen in order to obtain the insightful data and detailed information to uncover the injustice policies committed by the government-private entrepreneurs toward Yogyakarta south coastal area community. The brief results of this study show that the conflicts between the community and government-private entrepreneurs occurred because of the differences of interests and paradigm of natural resource management. The resistance movements done by the community to fight back the government-private entrepreneurs was conducted by forming an organization called Paguyupan Petani Lahan Pantai Kulon Progo (PPLP-KP). This organization do the resistances through two ways; firstly, quiet action done through various actions such as; refusing against the socialization, performing discussion to deliberate their argument with the government-private entrepreneurs, complaining the problems to the central government, creating banners or billboards which contain the writing of rejection, performing pray rituals to invoke the justice from the God, as well as instill the resistance ideology to their young generation. Secondly, the rough action also is done through various actions such as; doing roadblocks, conducting rallies, as well as doing clash with the government apparatus. In case the resistances done by the community are seen from the pattern. Actually, the resistances are reaction toward the aggression carried out by the government-private entrepreneurs.

Keywords: community resistance, conflict, ferruginous sand quarry construction, social movement

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Authors: Nitin Bhagat

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Drought is a global phenomenon. It has a huge impact on agriculture and allied sector activities. Agriculture plays a substantial role in the economy of developing countries, which mainly depends on rainfall. The present study illustrates the drought conditions in Masurdi village of Latur district in the Marathwada region, Maharashtra. This paper is based on both primary as well as secondary data sources. The multistage sample method was used for primary data collection. The 100 households sample survey data has been collected from the village through a semi-structured questionnaire. The crop production data is collected from the Department of Agriculture, Government of Maharashtra. The rainfall data is obtained from the Department of Revenue, Office of Divisional Commissioner, Aurangabad for the period from 1988 to 2018. This paper examines the severity of drought consequences of the 2015 drought on domestic water supply, crop production, and the effect on children's schooling, livestock assets, bank credit, and migration. The study also analyzed climate variables' impact on the Latur district's total food grain production for 19 years from 2000 to 2018. This study applied multiple regression analysis to check the relationship between climatic variables and the Latur district's total food grain production. The climate variables are annual rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. The study considered that climatic variables are independent variables and total food grain as the dependent variable. It shows there is a significant relationship between rainfall and maximum temperature. The study also calculated rainfall deviations to find out the drought and normal years. According to drought manual 2016, the rainfall deviation calculated using the following formula. RF dev = {(RFi – RFn) / RFn}*100.Approximately 27.43 % of the workforce migrated from rural to urban areas for searching jobs, and crop production decreased tremendously due to inadequate rainfall in the drought year 2015. Many farm and non-farm labor, some marginal and small cultivators, migrated from rural to urban areas (like Pune, Mumbai, and Western Maharashtra).About 48 % of the households' children faced education difficulties; in the drought period, children were not going to school. They left their school and joined to bring water with their mother and fathers, sometimes they fetched water on their head or using a bicycle, near about 2 km from the village. In their school-going days, drinking water was not available in their schools, so the government declared holidays early in the academic education year 2015-16 compared to another academic year. Some college and 10th class students left their education due to financial problems. Many households benefited from state government schemes, like drought subsidies, crop insurance, and bank loans. Out of 100 households, about 50 (50 %) have obtained financial support from the state government’s subsidy scheme, 58 ( 58 %) have got crop insurance, and 41(41 %) irrigated households have got bank loans from national banks; besides that, only two families have obtained loans from their relatives and moneylenders.

Keywords: agriculture, drought, household, rainfall

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Authors: Ksenia Volkova, Artur Petrosyan, Ignatii Dubyshkin, Alexei Ossadtchi

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Brain-computer interfaces are a growing research field producing many implementations that find use in different fields and are used for research and practical purposes. Despite the popularity of the implementations using non-invasive neuroimaging methods, radical improvement of the state channel bandwidth and, thus, decoding accuracy is only possible by using invasive techniques. Electrocorticography (ECoG) is a minimally invasive neuroimaging method that provides highly informative brain activity signals, effective analysis of which requires the use of machine learning methods that are able to learn representations of complex patterns. Deep learning is a family of machine learning algorithms that allow learning representations of data with multiple levels of abstraction. This study explores the potential of deep learning approaches for ECoG processing, decoding movement intentions and the perception of proprioceptive information. To obtain synchronous recording of kinematic movement characteristics and corresponding electrical brain activity, a series of experiments were carried out, during which subjects performed finger movements at their own pace. Finger movements were recorded with a three-axis accelerometer, while ECoG was synchronously registered from the electrode strips that were implanted over the contralateral sensorimotor cortex. Then, multichannel ECoG signals were used to track finger movement trajectory characterized by accelerometer signal. This process was carried out both causally and non-causally, using different position of the ECoG data segment with respect to the accelerometer data stream. The recorded data was split into training and testing sets, containing continuous non-overlapping fragments of the multichannel ECoG. A deep convolutional neural network was implemented and trained, using 1-second segments of ECoG data from the training dataset as input. To assess the decoding accuracy, correlation coefficient r between the output of the model and the accelerometer readings was computed. After optimization of hyperparameters and training, the deep learning model allowed reasonably accurate causal decoding of finger movement with correlation coefficient r = 0.8. In contrast, the classical Wiener-filter like approach was able to achieve only 0.56 in the causal decoding mode. In the noncausal case, the traditional approach reached the accuracy of r = 0.69, which may be due to the presence of additional proprioceptive information. This result demonstrates that the deep neural network was able to effectively find a representation of the complex top-down information related to the actual movement rather than proprioception. The sensitivity analysis shows physiologically plausible pictures of the extent to which individual features (channel, wavelet subband) are utilized during the decoding procedure. In conclusion, the results of this study have demonstrated that a combination of a minimally invasive neuroimaging technique such as ECoG and advanced machine learning approaches allows decoding motion with high accuracy. Such setup provides means for control of devices with a large number of degrees of freedom as well as exploratory studies of the complex neural processes underlying movement execution.

Keywords: brain-computer interface, deep learning, ECoG, movement decoding, sensorimotor cortex

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Authors: Monica Arnaudo, Monika Topel, Bjorn Laumert

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Within the Swedish context, the current trend of relatively low electricity prices promotes the electrification of the energy infrastructure. The residential heating sector takes part in this transition by proposing a switch from a centralized district heating system towards a distributed heat pumps-based setting. When it comes to urban environments, two issues arise. The first, seen from an electricity-sector perspective, is related to the fact that existing networks are limited with regards to their installed capacities. Additional electric loads, such as heat pumps, can cause severe overloads on crucial network elements. The second, seen from a heating-sector perspective, has to do with the fact that the indoor comfort conditions can become difficult to handle when the operation of the heat pumps is limited by a risk of overloading on the distribution grid. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the electricity market prices in the future introduces an additional variable. This study aims at assessing the extent to which distributed heat pumps can penetrate an existing heat energy network while respecting the technical limitations of the electricity grid and the thermal comfort levels in the buildings. In order to account for the multi-disciplinary nature of this research question, a cosimulation modeling approach was adopted. In this way, each energy technology is modeled in its customized simulation environment. As part of the cosimulation methodology: a steady-state power flow analysis in pandapower was used for modeling the electrical distribution grid, a thermal balance model of a reference building was implemented in EnergyPlus to account for space heating and a fluid-cycle model of a heat pump was implemented in JModelica to account for the actual heating technology. With the models set in place, different scenarios based on forecasted electricity market prices were developed both for present and future conditions of Hammarby Sjöstad, a neighborhood located in the south-east of Stockholm (Sweden). For each scenario, the technical and the comfort conditions were assessed. Additionally, the average cost of heat generation was estimated in terms of levelized cost of heat. This indicator enables a techno-economic comparison study among the different scenarios. In order to evaluate the levelized cost of heat, a yearly performance simulation of the energy infrastructure was implemented. The scenarios related to the current electricity prices show that distributed heat pumps can replace the district heating system by covering up to 30% of the heating demand. By lowering of 2°C, the minimum accepted indoor temperature of the apartments, this level of penetration can increase up to 40%. Within the future scenarios, if the electricity prices will increase, as most likely expected within the next decade, the penetration of distributed heat pumps can be limited to 15%. In terms of levelized cost of heat, a residential heat pump technology becomes competitive only within a scenario of decreasing electricity prices. In this case, a district heating system is characterized by an average cost of heat generation 7% higher compared to a distributed heat pumps option.

Keywords: cosimulation, distributed heat pumps, district heating, electrical distribution grid, integrated energy systems

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Authors: Jan Van Uden

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The paper reviews classical agency-theory and its contributions to the analysis of complex business negotiations and gives an approach for the modification of the basic agency-model in order to examine the negotiation specific dimensions of agency-problems. By illustrating fundamental potentials for the modification of agency-theory in context of business negotiations the paper highlights recent empirical research that investigates agent-based negotiations and inter-team constellations. A general theoretical analysis of complex negotiation would be based on a two-level approach. First, the modification of the basic agency-model in order to illustrate the organizational context of business negotiations (i.e., multi-agent issues, common-agencies, multi-period models and the concept of bounded rationality). Second, the application of the modified agency-model on complex business negotiations to identify agency-problems and relating areas of risk in the negotiation process. The paper is placed on the first level of analysis – the modification. The method builds on the one hand on insights from behavior decision research (BRD) and on the other hand on findings from agency-theory as normative directives to the modification of the basic model. Through neoclassical assumptions concerning the fundamental aspects of agency-relationships in business negotiations (i.e., asymmetric information, self-interest, risk preferences and conflict of interests), agency-theory helps to draw solutions on stated worst-case-scenarios taken from the daily negotiation routine. As agency-theory is the only universal approach able to identify trade-offs between certain aspects of economic cooperation, insights obtained provide a deeper understanding of the forces that shape business negotiation complexity. The need for a modification of the basic model is illustrated by highlighting selected issues of business negotiations from agency-theory perspective: Negotiation Teams require a multi-agent approach under the condition that often decision-makers as superior-agents are part of the team. The diversity of competences and decision-making authority is a phenomenon that overrides the assumptions of classical agency-theory and varies greatly in context of certain forms of business negotiations. Further, the basic model is bound to dyadic relationships preceded by the delegation of decision-making authority and builds on a contractual created (vertical) hierarchy. As a result, horizontal dynamics within the negotiation team playing an important role for negotiation success are therefore not considered in the investigation of agency-problems. Also, the trade-off between short-term relationships within the negotiation sphere and the long-term relationships of the corporate sphere calls for a multi-period perspective taking into account the sphere-specific governance-mechanisms already established (i.e., reward and monitoring systems). Within the analysis, the implementation of bounded rationality is closely related to findings from BRD to assess the impact of negotiation behavior on underlying principal-agent-relationships. As empirical findings show, the disclosure and reservation of information to the agent affect his negotiation behavior as well as final negotiation outcomes. Last, in context of business negotiations, asymmetric information is often intended by decision-makers acting as superior-agents or principals which calls for a bilateral risk-approach to agency-relations.

Keywords: business negotiations, agency-theory, negotiation analysis, interteam negotiations

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Authors: Leah Li Echiverri, Haoyu Shang, Yue Li

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Wenzhou-Kean University (WKU) is a Sino-US Cooperative University in China. It practices the English Immersion Program (EIP), where all the courses are taught in English. Class discussions and presentations are pervasively interwoven in designing students’ learning experiences. This WKU model has brought positive influences on students and is in some way ahead of traditional college English majors. However, literature to support the perceptions on the positive outcomes of this teaching and learning model remain scarce. The distinctive profile of Chinese-ESL students in an English Medium of Instruction (EMI) environment contributes further to the scarcity of literature compared to existing studies conducted among ESL learners in Western educational settings. Hence, the study investigated the students’ perceptions towards the English Immersion Program and determine how it influences Chinese-ESL students’ academic performance (AP). This research can provide empirical data that would be helpful to educators, teaching practitioners, university administrators, and other researchers in making informed decisions when developing curricular reforms, instructional and pedagogical methods, and university-wide support programs using this educational model. The purpose of the study was to establish the relationship between the English Immersion Program and Academic Performance among Chinese-ESL students enrolled at WKU for the academic year 2020-2021. Course length, immersion location, course type, and instructional design were the constructs of the English immersion program. English language learning, learning efficiency, and class participation were used to measure academic performance. Descriptive-correlational design was used in this cross-sectional research project. A quantitative approach for data analysis was applied to determine the relationship between the English immersion program and Chinese-ESL students’ academic performance. The research was conducted at WKU; a Chinese-American jointly established higher educational institution located in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province. Convenience, random, and snowball sampling of 283 students, a response rate of 10.5%, were applied to represent the WKU student population. The questionnaire was posted through the survey website named Wenjuanxing and shared to QQ or WeChat. Cronbach’s alpha was used to test the reliability of the research instrument. Findings revealed that when professors integrate technology (PowerPoint, videos, and audios) in teaching, students pay more attention. This contributes to the acquisition of more professional knowledge in their major courses. As to course immersion, students perceive WKU as a good place to study, providing them a high degree of confidence to talk with their professors in English. This also contributes to their English fluency and better pronunciation in their communication. In the construct of designing instruction, the use of pictures, video clips, and professors’ non-verbal communication, and demonstration of concern for students encouraged students to be more active in-class participation. Findings on course length and academic performance indicated that students’ perception regarding taking courses during fall and spring terms can moderately contribute to their academic performance. In conclusion, the findings revealed a significantly strong positive relationship between course type, immersion location, instructional design, and academic performance.

Keywords: class participation, English immersion program, English language learning, learning efficiency

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Authors: Jiri Nepereny, Vladimir Vrzal

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Staphylococcus intermedius/pseudintermedius bacteria are commonly found on the skin of healthy dogs and can cause pruritic skin diseases under certain circumstances (trauma, allergy, immunodeficiency, ectoparasitosis, endocrinological diseases, glucocorticoid therapy, etc.). These can develop into complicated superficial or deep pyoderma, which represent a large group of problematic skin diseases in dogs. These are predominantly inflammations of a secondary nature, associated with the occurrence of coagulase-positive Staphylococcus spp. A major problem is increased itching, which greatly complicates the healing process. The aim of this work is to verify the efficacy of the developed preparation Bacteriophage SI (Staphylococcus intermedius). The tested preparation contains a lysate of bacterial cells of S. intermedius host culture including culture medium and live virions of specific phage. Sodium Merthiolate is added as a preservative in a safe concentration. Validation of the efficacy of the product was demonstrated by monitoring the therapeutic effect after application to indicated cases from clinical practice. The indication for inclusion of the patient into the trial was an adequate history and clinical examination accompanied by sample collection for bacteriological examination and isolation of the specific causative agent. Isolate identification was performed by API BioMérieux identification system (API ID 32 STAPH) and rep-PCR typing. The suitability of therapy for a specific case was confirmed by in vitro testing of the lytic ability of the bacteriophage to lyse the specific isolate = formation of specific plaques on the culture isolate on the surface of the solid culture medium. So far, a total of 32 dogs of different sexes, ages and breed affiliations with different symptoms of staphylococcal dermatitis have been included in the testing. Their previous therapy consisted of more or less successful systemic or local application of broad-spectrum antibiotics. The presence of S. intermedius/pseudintermedius has been demonstrated in 26 cases. The isolates were identified as a S. pseudintermedius, in all cases. Contaminant bacterial microflora was always present in the examined samples. The test product was applied subcutaneously in gradually increasing doses over a period of 1 month. After improvement in health status, maintenance therapy was followed by application of the product once a week for 3 months. Adverse effects associated with the administration of the product (swelling at the site of application) occurred in only 2 cases. In all cases, there was a significant reduction in clinical signs (healing of skin lesions and reduction of inflammation) after therapy and an improvement in the well-being of the treated animals. A major problem in the treatment of pyoderma is the frequent resistance of the causative agents to antibiotics, especially the increasing frequency of multidrug-resistant and methicillin-resistant S. pseudintermedius (MRSP) strains. Specific phagolysate using for the therapy of these diseases could solve this problem and to some extent replace or reduce the use of antibiotics, whose frequent and widespread application often leads to the emergence of resistance. The advantage of the therapeutic use of bacteriophages is their bactericidal effect, high specificity and safety. This work was supported by Project FV40213 from Ministry of Industry and Trade, Czech Republic.

Keywords: bacteriophage, pyoderma, staphylococcus spp, therapy

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Authors: R. Pardo, P. Menendez, MA Gil-Olarte, S. Sanchez, E. García, R. Quintana, J. Martín

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Introduction : Within oncoplastic breast techniques there is increased interest in immediate partial breast reconstruction. The volume resected is greater than that of conventional conservative techniques. Central tumours of the breast have classically been treated with a mastectomy with regard to oncological safety and cosmetic secondary effects after wide central resection of the nipple and breast tissue beneath. Oncological results for central quadrantectomy have a recurrence level, disease- free period and survival identical to mastectomy. Grissoti flap is an oncoplastic surgical technique that allows the surgeon to perform a safe central quadrantectomy with excellent cosmetic results. Material and methods: The Grissoti flap is a glandular cutaneous advancement rotation flap that can fill the defect in the central portion of the excised breast. If the inferior border is affected by tumour and further surgery is decided upon at the Multidisciplinary Team Meeting, it will be necessary to perform a mastectomy. All patients with a Grisotti flap undergoing surgery since 2009 were reviewed obtaining the following data: age, hystopathological diagnosis, size, operating time, volume of tissue resected, postoperative admission time, re-excisions due to positive margins affected by tumour, wound dehiscence, complications and recurrence. Analysis and results of sentinel node biopsy were also obtained. Results: 12 patients underwent surgery between 2009-2015. The mean age was 54 years (34-67) . All had a preoperative diagnosis of ductal infiltrative carcinoma of less than 2 cm,. Diagnosis was made with Ultrasound, Mamography or both . Magnetic resonance was used in 5 cases. No patients had preoperative positive axilla after ultrasound exploration. Mean operating time was 104 minutes (84-130). Postoperative stay was 24 hours. Mean volume resected was 159 cc (70-286). In one patient the surgical border was affected by tumour and a further procedure with resection of the affected border was performed as ambulatory surgery. The sentinel node biopsy was positive for micrometastasis in only two cases. In one case lymphadenectomy was performed in 2009. In the other, treated in 2015, no lymphadenectomy was performed as the patient had a favourable histopathological prognosis and the multidisciplinary team meeting agreed that lymphadenectomy was not required. No recurrence has been diagnosed in any of the patients who underwent surgery and they are all disease free at present. Conclusions: Conservative surgery for retroareolar central tumours of the breast results in good local control of the disease with free surgical borders, including resection of the nipple areola complex and pectoral major muscle fascia. Reconstructive surgery with the inferior Grissoti flap adequately fills the defect after central quadrantectomy with creation of a new cutaneous disc where a new nipple areola complex is reconstructed with a local flap or micropigmentation. This avoids the need for contralateral symmetrization. Sentinel Node biopsy can be performed without added morbidity. When feasible, the Grissoti flap will avoid skin-sparing mastectomy for central breast tumours that will require the use of an expander, prosthesis or myocutaneous flap, with all the complications of a more complex operation.

Keywords: Grisotti flap, oncoplastic surgery, central tumours, breast

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Authors: Sakshi Gupta, Kavita Sardana

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Management of a forest catchment involves diverse dimensions, multiple stakeholders, and conflicting interests, primarily due to the wide variety of valuable ecosystem services offered by it. Often, the coordination among different levels of formal institutions governing the catchment, local communities, as well as societal norms, taboos, customs and practices, happens to be amiss, leading to conflicting policy interventions which prove detrimental for such resources. In the case of Ala Catchment, which is a protected forest located at a distance of 9 km North-East of the town of Dalhousie, within district Chamba of Himachal Pradesh, India, and serves as one of the primary sources of public water supply for the downstream town of Dalhousie and nearby areas, several policy measures have been adopted for the restoration of the forest catchment, as well as for the improvement of public water supply. These catchment forest restoration measures include; the installation of a fence along the perimeter of the catchment, plantation of trees in the empty patches of the forest, construction of check dams, contour trenches, contour bunds, issuance of grazing permits, and installation of check posts to keep track of trespassers. While the measures adopted to address the acute shortage of public water supply in the Dalhousie region include; building and maintenance of large capacity water storage tanks, laying of pipelines, expanding public water distribution infrastructure to include water sources other than Ala Catchment Forest and introducing of five new water supply schemes for drinking water as well as irrigation. However, despite these policy measures, the degradation of the Ala catchment and acute shortage of water supply continue to distress the region. This study attempts to conduct an institutional analysis to assess the impact of policy measures for the restoration of the Ala Catchment in the Chamba district of Himachal Pradesh in India. For this purpose, the theoretical framework of Ostrom’s Institutional Assessment and Development (IAD) Framework was used. Snowball sampling was used to conduct private interviews and focused group discussions. A semi-structured questionnaire was administered to interview a total of 184 respondents across stakeholders from both formal and informal institutions. The central hypothesis of the study is that the interplay of formal and informal institutions facilitates the implementation of policy measures for ameliorating Ala Catchment, in turn improving the livelihood of people depending on this forest catchment for direct and indirect benefits. The findings of the study suggest that leakages in the successful implementation of policy measures occur at several nodes of decision-making, which adversely impact the catchment and the ecosystem services provided by it. Some of the key reasons diagnosed by the immediate analysis include; ad-hoc assignment of property rights, rise in tourist inflow increasing the pressures on water demand, illegal trespassing by local and nomadic pastoral communities for grazing and unlawful extraction of forest products, and rent-seeking by a few influential formal institutions. Consequently, it is indicated that the interplay of formal and informal institutions may be obscuring the consequentiality of the policy measures on the restoration of the catchment.

Keywords: catchment forest restoration, institutional analysis and development framework, institutional interplay, protected forest, water supply management

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Authors: Biao Hu, Mark E. J. Cutler, Alexandra C. Morel

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Global climate change introduces both opportunities and challenges for crop productivity, with differences in temperature stress across latitudes and crop types, one of the most important meteorological factors impacting crop productivity. The development and productivity of crops are particularly impacted when temperatures occur outwith their preferred ranges, which has implications for global agri-food sector. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK arable lands for rapeseed cropping between 1961 and 2020, using a 1 km spatial resolution temperature dataset. Stress indices, including heat stress index (fHS) defined as the ratio of “Tmax - Tcrit_h” to “Tlimit_h - Tcrit_h” where Tmax, Tcrit_h and Tlimit_h represent the daily maximum temperature (°C), critical high temperature threshold (°C) and limiting high temperature threshold (°C) of rapeseed crop respectively; cold degree days (CDD) as the difference between daily Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tcrit_l (critical low temperature threshold); and a normalized rapeseed production loss index (fRPL) as the product of fHS and attainable rapeseed yield in the same land pixel were established. The values of fHS and CDD, percentages of days experiencing each stress and fRPL were investigated. Results found increasing fHS and the areas impacted by heat stress during flowering (from April to May) and reproductive (from April to July) stages over time, with the mean fHS being negatively correlated with latitude. This pattern of increased heat stress agrees with previous research on rapeseed cropping, which have been noted at global scale in response to changes in climate. The decreasing number of CDD and frequency of cold stress suggest cold stress decreased during flowering, vegetative (from September to March next year) and reproductive stages, and the magnitude of cold stress in the south of the UK was smaller to that compared to northern regions over the studied periods. The decreasing CDD matches observed declining cold stress of global rapeseed and of other crops such as rice in the northern hemisphere. Notably, compared with previous studies which mainly tracked the trends of heat stress and cold stress individually, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the rate of their changes and found heat stress of rapeseed crops in the UK was increasing at a faster rate than cold stress, which was seen to decrease during flowering. The increasing values of fRPL, with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between regions of the UK, suggested an increasing loss in rapeseed due to heat stress in the studied period. The largest increasing trend in heat stress was observed in South-eastern England, where a decreasing cold stress was taking place. While the present study observed a relatively slowly increasing heat stress, there is a worrying trend of increasing heat stress for rapeseed cropping into the future, as the cases of other main rapeseed cropping systems in the northern hemisphere including China, European counties, the US, and Canada. This study demonstrates the negative impact of global warming on rapeseed cropping, highlighting the adaptation and mitigations strategies for sustainable rapeseed cultivation across the globe.

Keywords: rapeseed, UK, heat stress, cold stress, global climate change, spatiotemporal analysis, production loss index

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Authors: Athina Thanou, Eirini Eleni Tsiropoulou, Symeon Papavassiliou

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The problem of museum visitor experience and congestion management – in various forms - has come increasingly under the spotlight over the last few years, since overcrowding can significantly decrease the quality of visitors’ experience. Evidence suggests that on busy days the amount of time a visitor spends inside a crowded house museum can fall by up to 60% compared to a quiet mid-week day. In this paper we consider the aforementioned problem, by treating museums as evolving social systems that induce constraints. However, in a cultural heritage space, as opposed to the majority of social environments, the momentum of the experience is primarily controlled by the visitor himself. Visitors typically behave selfishly regarding the maximization of their own Quality of Experience (QoE) - commonly expressed through a utility function that takes several parameters into consideration, with crowd density and waiting/visiting time being among the key ones. In such a setting, congestion occurs when either the utility of one visitor decreases due to the behavior of other persons, or when costs of undertaking an activity rise due to the presence of other persons. We initially investigate how visitors’ behavioral risk attitudes, as captured and represented by prospect theory, affect their decisions in resource sharing settings, where visitors’ decisions and experiences are strongly interdependent. Different from the majority of existing studies and literature, we highlight that visitors are not risk neutral utility maximizers, but they demonstrate risk-aware behavior according to their personal risk characteristics. In our work, exhibits are organized into two groups: a) “safe exhibits” that correspond to less congested ones, where the visitors receive guaranteed satisfaction in accordance with the visiting time invested, and b) common pool of resources (CPR) exhibits, which are the most popular exhibits with possibly increased congestion and uncertain outcome in terms of visitor satisfaction. A key difference is that the visitor satisfaction due to CPR strongly depends not only on the invested time decision of a specific visitor, but also on that of the rest of the visitors. In the latter case, the over-investment in time, or equivalently the increased congestion potentially leads to “exhibit failure”, interpreted as the visitors gain no satisfaction from their observation of this exhibit due to high congestion. We present a framework where each visitor in a distributed manner determines his time investment in safe or CPR exhibits to optimize his QoE. Based on this framework, we analyze and evaluate how visitors, acting as prospect-theoretic decision-makers, respond and react to the various pricing policies imposed by the museum curators. Based on detailed evaluation results and experiments, we present interesting observations, regarding the impact of several parameters and characteristics such as visitor heterogeneity and use of alternative pricing policies, on scalability, user satisfaction, museum capacity, resource fragility, and operation point stability. Furthermore, we study and present the effectiveness of alternative pricing mechanisms, when used as implicit tools, to deal with the congestion management problem in the museums, and potentially decrease the exhibit failure probability (fragility), while considering the visitor risk preferences.

Keywords: museum resource and visitor management, congestion management, propsect theory, cyber physical social systems

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