Search results for: real time model

Authors: Min Wang, Sergey Utev

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The lessons from the 2007-09 global financial crisis have driven scientific research, which considers the design of new methodologies and financial models in the global market. The quantum mechanics approach was introduced in the unpredictable stock market modeling. One famous quantum tool is Feynman path integral method, which was used to model insurance risk by Tamturk and Utev and adapted to formalize the path-dependent option pricing by Hao and Utev. The research is based on the path-dependent calculation method, which is motivated by the Feynman path integral method. The path calculation can be studied in two ways, one way is to label, and the other is computational. Labeling is a part of the representation of objects, and generating functions can provide many different ways of representing share price paths. In this paper, the recent works on graphical theoretical construction of individual share price path via matroid is presented. Firstly, a study is done on the knowledge of matroid, relationship between lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials and ways to connect points in the lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials is suggested. Secondly, It is found that a general binary tree can be validly constructed from a connected lattice path matroid rather than general lattice path matroid. Lastly, it is suggested that there is a way to represent share price paths via a general binary tree, and an algorithm is developed to construct share price paths from general binary trees. A relationship is also provided between lattice integer points and Tutte polynomials of a transversal matroid. Use this way of connection together with the algorithm, a share price path can be constructed from a given connected lattice path matroid.

Keywords: combinatorial construction, graphical representation, matroid, path calculation, share price, Tutte polynomial

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Authors: Imam Muthohar, Budi Hartono, Sigit Priyanto, Hardiansyah Hardiansyah

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The eruption of Merapi Volcano in Yogyakarta, Indonesia in 2010 caused many casualties due to minimum preparedness in facing disaster. Increasing population capacity and evacuating to safe places become very important to minimize casualties. Regional government through the Regional Disaster Management Agency has divided disaster-prone areas into three parts, namely ring 1 at a distance of 10 km, ring 2 at a distance of 15 km and ring 3 at a distance of 20 km from the center of Mount Merapi. The success of the evacuation is fully supported by road network infrastructure as a way to rescue in an emergency. This research attempts to model evacuation process based on the rise of refugees in ring 1, expanded to ring 2 and finally expanded to ring 3. The model was developed using SATURN (Simulation and Assignment of Traffic to Urban Road Networks) program version 11.3. 12W, involving 140 centroid, 449 buffer nodes, and 851 links across Yogyakarta Special Region, which was aimed at making a preliminary identification of road networks considered vulnerable to disaster. An assumption made to identify vulnerability was the improvement of road network performance in the form of flow and travel times on the coverage of ring 1, ring 2, ring 3, Sleman outside the ring, Yogyakarta City, Bantul, Kulon Progo, and Gunung Kidul. The research results indicated that the performance increase in the road networks existing in the area of ring 2, ring 3, and Sleman outside the ring. The road network in ring 1 started to increase when the evacuation was expanded to ring 2 and ring 3. Meanwhile, the performance of road networks in Yogyakarta City, Bantul, Kulon Progo, and Gunung Kidul during the evacuation period simultaneously decreased in when the evacuation areas were expanded. The results of preliminary identification of the vulnerability have determined that the road networks existing in ring 1, ring 2, ring 3 and Sleman outside the ring were considered vulnerable to the evacuation of Mount Merapi eruption. Therefore, it is necessary to pay a great deal of attention in order to face the disasters that potentially occur at anytime.

Keywords: model, evacuation, SATURN, vulnerability

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Authors: Mlondi Ndovela

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Globally, the manufacturing employment has been declining and the South African manufacturing sector experiences the very same trend. Despite the commonality between the global and South African manufacturing trend, there is an understanding that local areas provide distinct contributions to the provincial/national economy. Therefore, the growth/decline of a particular manufacturing division in one local area may not be evident in another area since economic performances vary from region to region. In view of the above, the study employed the Esteban-Marquillas model of shift-share analysis (SSA) to conduct an empirical analysis of manufacturing employment performance at uMhlathuze Local Municipality in the KwaZulu-Natal province. The study set out two objectives; those are, to quantify uMhlathuze manufacturing jobs that are attributed to the provincial manufacturing employment trends and identify manufacturing divisions are growing/declining in terms of employment. To achieve these objectives, the study sampled manufacturing employment data from 2010 to 2017 and this data was categorised into ten manufacturing divisions. Furthermore, the Esteban-Marquillas model calculated manufacturing employment in terms of two effects, namely; provincial growth effect (PGE) and industrial mix effect (IME). The results show that even though uMhlathuze manufacturing sector has a positive PGE (+230), the municipality performed poorly in terms of IME (-291). A further analysis included other economic sectors of the municipality to draw employment performance comparison and the study found that agriculture; construction; trade, catering and accommodation; and transport, storage and communication, performed well above manufacturing sector in terms of PGE (+826) and IME (+532). This suggests that uMhlathuze manufacturing sector is not necessarily declining; however, other economic sectors are growing faster and bigger than it is, therefore, reducing the employment share of the manufacturing sector. To promote manufacturing growth from a policy standpoint, the government could create favourable macroeconomic policies such as import substitution policies and support labour-intensive manufacturing divisions. As a result, these macroeconomic policies can help to protect local manufacturing firms and stimulate the growth of manufacturing employment.

Keywords: allocation effect, Esteban-Marquillas model, manufacturing employment, regional competitive effect, shift-share analysis

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

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The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs

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Authors: José Francisco Urrutia Reyes, Judith Espinosa Real

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This paper is meant to re-examine the role of street art in the contemporary world. By studying this form of art in Brussels, it can be explained how murals show the socio-political reality of a given community and influence on its interaction. Through the definitions of street art, murals and street artists, and analysing their role in Brussels, it is possible to understand how this counter culture movement serves as an engine of social development, as it interacts with its surroundings sending a clear message to a wider audience. Street art impacts on its environment because it interacts with the people who occupies the day-to-day public space. This has proven to be effective in the arouse of social consciousness, up to the point of being adopted by the government of Brussels to promote social movements such as the AIDS-HIV campaign along with the Plate-Forme Prévention Sida. It can be concluded that street art has evolved since its vandalic beginnings, to become a form of art that has not lost it counter official status, but now has a critical vision that can promote social awakening. Street art is now a global trend that uses visual inputs to create a positive impact.

Keywords: street art, Brussels, social impact, political perspective

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Authors: Mahmood Naghizadeh, Maryam Memarian, Hourshad Irvash

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Following the rise in the world population and the upward growth of urbanization, the design, planning, and management of the site scenery for the purpose of presentation and expansion of sustainable site scenery has turned to be the greatest concern to experts. Since the fundamental principles of the site scenery change more and less haphazardly over time, sustainable site scenery can be viewed as an ideal goal because both sustainability and dynamism come into view in urban site scenery and it wouldn’t be designed according to a set of pre-determined principles. Sustainable site scenery, as the ongoing interaction between idealism and pragmatism with sustainability factors, is a dynamic phenomenon created by bringing cultural, historical, social and natural scenery together. Such an interaction is not to subdue other factors but to reinforce the aforementioned factors. The sustainable site scenery is a persistently occurring event not only has attenuated over time but has gained strength. The sustainability of a site scenery or an event over time depends on its site identity which grows out of its continuous association with the past. The sustainability of a site scene or an event in a time frame intertwined with the identity of the place from past to present. This past history supports the present and future of the scene. The result of such a supportive role is the sustainability of site scenery. Isfahan Naqsh-e-Jahan Square is one of the most outstanding squares in the world and the best embodiment of Iranian site scenery architecture. This square is an arena that brings people together and a dynamic city center comprising various urban and religious complexes, spaces and facilities and is considered as one of the most favorable traditional urban space of Iran. Such a place can illustrate many factors related to sustainable site scenery. One the other hand, there are still no specific principles concerning sustainability in the architecture of site scenery. Meanwhile, sustainability is recognized as a rather modern view in architecture. The purpose of this research is to identify factors involved in sustainability in general and to examine their effects on site scenery architecture in particular. Finally, these factors will be studied with taking Naqsh-e-Jahan Square into account. This research adopts an analytic-descriptive approach that has benefited from the review of literature available in library studies and the documents related to sustainability and site scenery architecture. The statistical population used for the purpose of this research includes square constructed during the Safavid dynasty and Naqsh-e-Jahan Square was picked out as the case study. The purpose of this paper is to come up with a rough definition of sustainable site scenery and demonstrate this concept by analyzing it and recognizing the social, economic and ecological aspects of this project.

Keywords: Naqsh-e-Jahan Square, site scenery architecture, sustainability, sustainable site scenery

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Authors: Lu Ren, You-Liang Fang, Yan-Gang Zhao

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In recent years, the application of BIM (Building Information Modelling) to construction schedule plan has been the focus of more and more researchers. In order to assess the reasonable level of the BIM-based construction schedule plan, that is whether the schedule can be completed on time, some researchers have introduced reliability theory to evaluate. In the process of evaluation, the uncertain factors affecting the construction schedule plan are regarded as random variables, and probability distributions of the random variables are assumed to be normal distribution, which is determined using two parameters evaluated from the mean and standard deviation of statistical data. However, in practical engineering, most of the uncertain influence factors are not normal random variables. So the evaluation results of the construction schedule plan will be unreasonable under the assumption that probability distributions of random variables submitted to the normal distribution. Therefore, in order to get a more reasonable evaluation result, it is necessary to describe the distribution of random variables more comprehensively. For this purpose, cubic normal distribution is introduced in this paper to describe the distribution of arbitrary random variables, which is determined by the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). In this paper, building the BIM model firstly according to the design messages of the structure and making the construction schedule plan based on BIM, then the cubic normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of the random variables due to the collecting statistical data of the random factors influencing construction schedule plan. Next the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM can be carried out more reasonably. Finally, the more accurate evaluation results can be given providing reference for the implementation of the actual construction schedule plan. In the last part of this paper, the more efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methodology for the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM are conducted through practical engineering case.

Keywords: BIM, construction schedule plan, cubic normal distribution, reliability analysis

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Authors: Zohreh Soltani, Seyedmohammadhossein Hosseinian

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Reduction of energy consumption in built infrastructure, through the installation of energy-efficient technologies, is a major approach to achieving sustainability. In practice, the viability of energy efficiency projects strongly depends on the cost reimbursement and profitability. These projects are subject to failure if the actual cost savings do not reimburse the project cost in a timely manner. In such cases, refinancing could be a solution to benefit from the long-term returns of the project if implemented wisely. However, very little is still known about the effect of refinancing options on financial performance of energy efficiency projects. To fill this gap, the present study investigates the financial behavior of energy efficiency projects with focus on refinancing options, such as Leveraged Loans. A System Dynamics (SD) model is introduced, and the model application is presented using an actual case-study data. The case study results indicate that while high-interest start-ups make using Leveraged Loan inevitable, refinancing can rescue the project and bring about profitability. This paper also presents some managerial implications of refinancing energy efficiency projects based on the case-study analysis. Results of this study help implementing financially viable energy efficiency projects, so the community could benefit from their environmental advantages widely.

Keywords: energy efficiency projects, leveraged loan, refinancing, sustainability

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Authors: Anita Bajpai, Sarah Duan, Ashlee Erskine, Shehzein Khan, Raymond Kramer

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Introduction: This research focuses on exploring the beneficial effects if any, of Vitamin-D in reducing the need for supplemental oxygen among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Two questions are investigated – Q1)Doeshaving a healthy level of baselineVitamin-D 25-OH (≥ 30ng/ml) help,andQ2) does administering Vitamin-D therapy after-the-factduring inpatient hospitalization help? Methods/Study Design: This is a comprehensive, retrospective, observational study of all inpatients at RUHS from March through December 2020 who tested positive for COVID-19 based on real-time reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction assay of nasal and pharyngeal swabs and rapid assay antigen test. To address Q1, we looked atall N1=182 patients whose baseline plasma Vitamin-D 25-OH was known and who needed supplemental oxygen. Of this, a total of 121 patients had a healthy Vitamin-D level of ≥30 ng/mlwhile the remaining 61 patients had low or borderline (≤ 29.9ng/ml)level. Similarly, for Q2, we looked at a total of N2=893 patients who were given supplemental oxygen, of which713 were not given Vitamin-D and 180 were given Vitamin-D therapy. The numerical value of the maximum amount of oxygen flow rate(dependent variable) administered was recorded for each patient. The mean values and associated standard deviations for each group were calculated. Thesetwo sets of independent data served as the basis for independent, two-sample t-Test statistical analysis. To be accommodative of any reasonable benefitof Vitamin-D, ap-value of 0.10(α< 10%) was set as the cutoff point for statistical significance. Results: Given the large sample sizes, the calculated statistical power for both our studies exceeded the customary norm of 80% or better (β< 0.2). For Q1, the mean value for maximumoxygen flow rate for the group with healthybaseline level of Vitamin-D was 8.6 L/min vs.12.6L/min for those with low or borderline levels, yielding a p-value of 0.07 (p < 0.10) with the conclusion that those with a healthy level of baseline Vitamin-D needed statistically significant lower levels of supplemental oxygen. ForQ2, the mean value for a maximum oxygen flow rate for those not administered Vitamin-Dwas 12.5 L/min vs.12.8L/min for those given Vitamin-D, yielding a p-valueof 0.87 (p > 0.10). We thereforeconcludedthat there was no statistically significant difference in the use of oxygen therapy between those who were or were not administered Vitamin-D after-the-fact in the hospital. Discussion/Conclusion: We found that patients who had healthy levels of Vitamin-D at baseline needed statistically significant lower levels of supplemental oxygen. Vitamin-D is well documented, including in a recent article in the Lancet, for its anti-inflammatory role as an adjuvant in the regulation of cytokines and immune cells. Interestingly, we found no statistically significant advantage for giving Vitamin-D to hospitalized patients. It may be a case of “too little too late”. A randomized clinical trial reported in JAMA also did not find any reduction in hospital stay of patients given Vitamin-D. Such conclusions come with a caveat that any delayed marginal benefits may not have materialized promptly in the presence of a significant inflammatory condition. Since Vitamin-D is a low-cost, low-risk option, it may still be useful on an inpatient basis until more definitive findings are established.

Keywords: COVID-19, vitamin-D, supplemental oxygen, vitamin-D in primary care

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Authors: Lillian Musila, Valerie Oundo, Daniel Erwin, Willie Sang

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Staphylococcus aureus infections are a major cause of nosocomial infections in Kenya. Methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA) infections are a significant burden to public health and are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. At a hospital in Western Kenya two clusters of MRSA cases emerged within short periods of time. In this study we explored whether these clusters represented a nosocomial outbreak by characterizing the isolates using phenotypic and molecular assays and examining epidemiological data to identify possible transmission patterns. Specimens from the site of infection of the subjects were collected, cultured and S. aureus isolates identified phenotypically and confirmed by APIStaph™. MRSA were identified by cefoxitin disk screening per CLSI guidelines. MRSA were further characterized based on their antibiotic susceptibility patterns and spa gene typing. Characteristics of cases with MRSA isolates were compared with those with MSSA isolated around the same time period. Two cases of MRSA infection were identified in the two week period between 21 April and 4 May 2015. A further 2 MRSA isolates were identified on the same day on 7 September 2015. The antibiotic resistance patterns of the two MRSA isolates in the 1st cluster of cases were different suggesting that these were distinct isolates. One isolate had spa type t2029 and the other had a novel spa type. The 2 isolates were obtained from urine and an open skin wound. In the 2nd cluster of MRSA isolates, the antibiotic susceptibility patterns were similar but isolates had different spa types: one was t037 and the other a novel spa type different from the novel MRSA spa type in the first cluster. Both cases in the second cluster were admitted into the hospital but one infection was community- and the other hospital-acquired. Only one of the four MRSA cases was classified as an HAI from an infection acquired post-operatively. When compared to other S. aureus strains isolated within the same time period from the same hospital only one spa type t2029 was found in both MRSA and non-MRSA strains. None of the cases infected with MRSA in the two clusters shared any common epidemiological characteristic such as age, sex or known risk factors for MRSA such as prolonged hospitalization or institutionalization. These data suggest that the observed MRSA clusters were multi strain clusters and not an outbreak of a single strain. There was no clear relationship between the isolates by spa type suggesting that no transmission was occurring within the hospital between these cluster cases but rather that the majority of the MRSA strains were circulating in the community. There was high diversity of spa types among the MRSA strains with none of the isolates sharing spa types. Identification of disease clusters in space and time is critical for immediate infection control action and patient management. Spa gene typing is a rapid way of confirming or ruling out MRSA outbreaks so that costly interventions are applied only when necessary.

Keywords: cluster, Kenya, MRSA, spa typing

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Authors: Zakheleni P. Dube, Phatu W. Mashela

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The Curve-fitting Allelochemical Response Data (CARD) model had been adopted as a valuable tool in enhancing the understanding of the efficacy of cucurbitacin-containing phytonematicides on the suppression of nematodes. In most cases, for registration purposes, the active ingredients should be in purified form. Evidence in other phytonematicides suggested that purified active ingredients were less effective in suppression of nematodes. The objective of this study was to use CARD model to compare the overall sensitivities of Meloidogyne incognita J2 hatch, mobility and mortality to Nemarioc-AL phytonematicides, cucurbitacin A, Nemafric-BL phytonematicide and cucurbitacin B. Meloidogyne incognita eggs and J2 were exposed to 0.00, 0.50, 1.00, 1.50, 2.00, 2.50, 3.00, 3.50, 4.00, 4.50 and 5.00% of each phytonematicide, whereas in purified form the concentrations were 0.00, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, 1.25, 1.50, 1.75, 2.00, 2.25 and 2.50 μg.mL⁻¹. The exposure period to each concentration was 24-, 48- and 72-h. The overall sensitivities of J2 hatch to Nemarioc-AL phytonematicide, cucurbitacin A, Nemafric-BL phytonematicide and cucurbitacin B were 1, 30, 5 and 2 units, respectively, whereas J2 mobiltity were 3, 17, 3 and 6 units, respectively. For J2 mortality overall sensitivities to Nemarioc-AL phytonematicide, cucurbitacin A, Nemafric-BL phytonematicide and cucurbitacin B were 2, 4, 1 and 4 units, respectively. In conclusion, the two crude extracts, Nemarioc-AL and Nemafric-BL phytonematicides were generally more potent to M. incognita compared to their pure active ingredients. The crude plant extract preparation is easy, and they could be an ideal tactic for the management of nematodes in resource poor farming communities.

Keywords: Botanicals, cucumin, leptodermin, plant extracts, triterpenoids

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Authors: Sunil Dutta

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Synchronization is defined as ‘the sequencing and re-sequencing of all relative and absolute activities in time and space and continuous alignment of those actions with purposeful objective in a complex and dynamic atmosphere. In a complex and dynamic production / maintenance setup, no single group can work in isolation for long. In addition, many activities in projects take place simultaneously at the same time. Work of every section / group is interwoven with work of others. The various activities / interactions which take place in production / overhaul workshops are interlinked because of physical requirements (information, material, workforces, equipment, and space) and dependencies. The activity sequencing is determined by physical dependencies of various department / sections / units (e.g., inventory availability must be ensured before stripping and disassembling of equipment), whereas resource dependencies do not. Theory of constraint facilitates identification, analyses and exploitation of the constraint in methodical manner. These constraints (equipment, manpower, policies etc.) prevent the department / sections / units from getting optimum exploitation of available resources. The significance of theory of constraints for achieving synchronization at overhaul workshop is illustrated in this paper.

Keywords: synchronization, overhaul, throughput, obsolescence, uncertainty

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Authors: Ali Raza, Rizwan Latif, Syed Adnan Qasim, Imran Shafi

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Diesel engines are most efficient and reliable in terms of efficiency, reliability, and adaptability. Most of the research and development up till now have been directed towards High Speed Diesel Engine, for Commercial use. In these engines, objective is to optimize maximum acceleration by reducing exhaust emission to meet international standards. In high torque low speed engines, the requirement is altogether different. These types of engines are mostly used in Maritime Industry, Agriculture Industry, Static Engines Compressors Engines, etc. On the contrary, high torque low speed engines are neglected quite often and are eminent for low efficiency and high soot emissions. One of the most effective ways to overcome these issues is by efficient combustion in an engine cylinder. Fuel spray dynamics play a vital role in defining mixture formation, fuel consumption, combustion efficiency and soot emissions. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the fuel spray characteristics and atomization process in high torque low speed diesel engine is of great importance. Evaporation in the combustion chamber has a rigorous effect on the efficiency of the engine. In this paper, multiphase evaporation of fuel is modeled for high torque low speed engine using the CFD (computational fluid dynamics) codes. Two distinct phases of evaporation are modeled using modeling soft wares. The basic model equations are derived from the energy conservation equation and Naiver-Stokes equation. O’Rourke model is used to model the evaporation phases. The results obtained showed a generous effect on the efficiency of the engine. Evaporation rate of fuel droplet is increased with the increase in vapor pressure. An appreciable reduction in size of droplet is achieved by adding the convective heat effects in the combustion chamber. By and large, an overall increase in efficiency is observed by modeling distinct evaporation phases. This increase in efficiency is due to the fact that droplet size is reduced and vapor pressure is increased in the engine cylinder.

Keywords: diesel fuel, CFD, evaporation, multiphase

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Authors: Nima Amani, Ali Salehi Dastjerdi, Fatemeh Ahmadi, Ardalan Sabamehr

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The cost overrun of the construction projects has always been one of the main problems of the construction companies caused by the risky nature of the construction projects. Therefore, today, the application of risk management is inevitable. Although in theory, the issue of risk management is divided into the opportunities and threats management, in practice, most of the projects have been focused on the threats management. However, considering the opportunities management and applying the opportunities-response strategies can lead to the improved profitability of the construction projects of the companies. In this paper, a new technique is developed to identify the opportunities in the construction projects using an improved protocol and propose the appropriate opportunities-response strategies to the construction companies to provide them with higher profitability. To evaluate the effectiveness of the protocol for selecting the most appropriate strategies in ‎response to the opportunities and threats, two projects from a construction company in Iran were ‎studied. Both projects selected were in mid-range in terms of size and similar in terms of time, ‎run time and costs. Finally, the output indicates that using the proposed opportunities-response strategies show that the company's profitability in the future can be increased approximately for similar projects.

Keywords: opportunities management, risk-response strategy, opportunity-response strategy, productivity, risk management

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Authors: Sherif Sabri, Suzy Fawzi, Sanaa Abdelshafy, Ayman Nagah

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Introduction: Static derangements in lactate homeostasis during ICU stay have become established as a clinically useful marker of increased risk of hospital and ICU mortality. Lactate indices or kinetic alteration of the anaerobic metabolism make it a potential parameter to evaluate disease severity and intervention adequacy. This is an inexpensive and simple clinical parameter that can be obtained by a minimally invasive means. Aim of work: Comparing the predictive value of dynamic indices of hyperlactatemia in the first twenty four hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission with other static values are more commonly used. Patients and Methods: This study included 40 critically ill patients above 18 years old of both sexes with Hyperlactamia (≥ 2 m mol/L). Patients were divided into septic group (n=20) and low oxygen transport group (n=20), which include all causes of low-O2. Six lactate indices specifically relating to the first 24 hours of ICU admission were considered, three static indices and three dynamic indices. Results: There were no statistically significant differences among the two groups regarding age, most of the laboratory results including ABG and the need for mechanical ventilation. Admission lactate was significantly higher in low-oxygen transport group than the septic group [37.5±11.4 versus 30.6±7.8 P-value 0.034]. Maximum lactate was significantly higher in low-oxygen transport group than the septic group P-value (0.044). On the other hand absolute lactate (mg) was higher in septic group P-value (< 0.001). Percentage change of lactate was higher in the septic group (47.8±11.3) than the low-oxygen transport group (26.1±12.6) with highly significant P-value (< 0.001). Lastly, time weighted lactate was higher in the low-oxygen transport group (1.72±0.81) than the septic group (1.05±0.8) with significant P-value (0.012). There were statistically significant differences regarding lactate indices in survivors and non survivors, whether in septic or low-oxygen transport group. Conclusion: In critically ill patients, time weighted lactate and percent in lactate change in the first 24 hours can be an independent predictive factor in ICU mortality. Also, a rising compared to a falling blood lactate concentration over the first 24 hours can be associated with significant increase in the risk of mortality.

Keywords: critically ill patients, lactate indices, mortality in intensive care, anaerobic metabolism

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Authors: Aurica P. Chiriac, Vera Balan, Mihai Asandulesa, Elena Butnaru, Nita Tudorachi, Elena Stoleru, Loredana E. Nita, Iordana Neamtu, Alina Diaconu, Liliana Mititelu-Tartau

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The interest for studying ‘smart’ materials is entirely justified and in this context were realized investigations on poly(2-hydroxyethylmethacrylate-co-3, 9-divinyl-2, 4, 8, 10-tetraoxaspiro (5.5) undecane), which is a macromolecular compound with sensibility at pH and temperature, gel formation capacity, binding properties, amphilicity, good oxidative and thermal stability. Physico-chemical characteristics in terms of the molecular weight, temperature-sensitive abilities and thermal stability, as well rheological, dielectric and spectroscopic properties were evaluated in correlation with further coupling capabilities. Differential scanning calorimetry investigation indicated Tg at 36.6 °C and a melting point at Tm=72.8°C, for the studied copolymer, and up to 200oC two exothermic processes (at 99.7°C and 148.8°C) were registered with losing weight of about 4 %, respective 19.27%, which indicate just processes of thermal decomposition (and not phenomena of thermal transition) owing to scission of the functional groups and breakage of the macromolecular chains. At the same time, the rheological studies (rotational tests) confirmed the non-Newtonian shear-thinning fluid behavior of the copolymer solution. The dielectric properties of the copolymer have been evaluated in order to investigate the relaxation processes and two relaxation processes under Tg value were registered and attributed to localized motions of polar groups from side chain macromolecules, or parts of them, without disturbing the main chains. According to literature and confirmed as well by our investigations, β-relaxation is assigned with the rotation of the ester side group and the γ-relaxation corresponds to the rotation of hydroxy- methyl side groups. The fluorescence spectroscopy confirmed the copolymer structure, the spiroacetal moiety getting an axial conformation, more stable, with lower energy, able for specific interactions with molecules from environment, phenomena underlined by different shapes of the emission spectra of the copolymer. Also, the copolymer was used as template for indomethacin incorporation as model drug, and the biocompatible character of the complex was confirmed. The release behavior of the bioactive compound was dependent by the copolymer matrix composition, the increasing of 3, 9-divinyl-2, 4, 8, 10-tetraoxaspiro (5.5) undecane comonomer amount attenuating the drug release. At the same time, the in vivo studies did not show significant differences of leucocyte formula elements, GOT, GPT and LDH levels, nor immune parameters (OC, PC, and BC) between control mice group and groups treated just with copolymer samples, with or without drug, data attesting the biocompatibility of the polymer samples. The investigation of the physico-chemical characteristics of poly(2-hydrxyethyl methacrylate-co-3, 9-divinyl-2, 4, 8, 10-tetraoxaspiro (5.5) undecane) in terms of temperature-sensitive abilities, rheological and dielectrical properties, are bringing useful information for further specific use of this polymeric compound.

Keywords: bioapplications, dielectric and spectroscopic properties, dual sensitivity at pH and temperature, smart materials

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Authors: Girmaye Abebe, Brook Lemma

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Adsorption of phosphorus (P as PO43-) in filter cake was studied to assess the media's capability in removing phosphorous from wastewaters. The composition of the filter cake that was generated from alum manufacturing process as waste residue has high amount of silicate from the complete silicate analysis of the experiment. Series of batches adsorption experiments were carried out to evaluate parameters that influence the adsorption capacity of PO43-. The factors studied include the effect of contact time, adsorbent dose, thermal pretreatment of the adsorbent, neutralization of the adsorbent, initial PO43- concentration, pH of the solution and effect of co-existing anions. Results showed that adsorption of PO43- is fairly rapid in first 5 min and after that it increases slowly to reach the equilibrium in about 1 h. The treatment efficiency of PO43- was increased with adsorbent extent. About 90% removal efficiency was increased within 1 h at an optimum adsorbent dose of 10 g/L for initial PO43- concentration of 10 mg/L. The amount of PO43- adsorbed increased with increasing initial PO43- concentration. Heat treatment and surface neutralization of the adsorbent did not improve the PO43- removal capacity and efficiency. The percentage of PO43- removal remains nearly constant within the pH range of 3-8. The adsorption data at ambient pH were well fitted to the Langmuir Isotherm and Dubinin–Radushkevick (D–R) isotherm model with a capacity of 25.84 and 157.55 mg/g of the adsorbent respectively. The adsorption kinetic was found to follow a pseudo-second-order rate equation with an average rate constant of 3.76 g.min−1.mg−1. The presence of bicarbonate or carbonate at higher concentrations (10–1000 mg/L) decreased the PO43- removal efficiency slightly while other anions (Cl-, SO42-, and NO3-) have no significant effect within the concentration range tested. The overall result shows that the filter cake is an efficient PO43- removing adsorbent against many parameters.

Keywords: wastewater, filter cake, adsorption capacity, phosphate (PO43-)

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Authors: Hossam Shalabi, George Hadjisophocleous

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The Canadian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) use some portions of NUREG/CR-6850 in carrying out Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). An assessment for the applicability of NUREG/CR-6850 to CANDU reactors was performed and a CANDU Fire PRA was introduced. There are 19 operating CANDU reactors in Canada at five sites (Bruce A, Bruce B, Darlington, Pickering and Point Lepreau). A fire load density survey was done for all Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis (FSSA) fire zones in all CANDU sites in Canada. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 557 proposes that a fire load survey must be conducted by either the weighing method or the inventory method or a combination of both. The combination method results in the most accurate values for fire loads. An updated CANDU Fire PRA model is demonstrated in this paper that includes the fuel survey in all Canadian CANDU stations. A qualitative screening step for the CANDU fire PRA is illustrated in this paper to include any fire events that can damage any part of the emergency power supply in addition to FSSA cables.

Keywords: fire safety, CANDU, nuclear, fuel densities, FDS, qualitative analysis, fire probabilistic risk assessment

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Authors: Yani Shi, Jiaqi Yan

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A new product is important for companies to extend consumers and manifest competitiveness. New product often involves new features that consumers might not be familiar with while it may also have a competitive advantage to attract consumers compared to established products. However, although most online retailers employ recommendation agents (RA) to influence consumers’ product choice decision, recommended new products are not accepted and chosen as expected. We argue that it might also be caused by providing a new product recommendation in the wrong way at the wrong time. This study seeks to discuss how new product evaluations sourced from third parties could be employed in RAs as evidence of the superiority for the new product and how the new product recommendation could be provided to a consumer at the right time so that it can be accepted and finally chosen during the consumer’s decision-making process. A 2*2 controlled laboratory experiment was conducted to understand the selection of new product recommendation sources and recommendation timing. Human subjects were randomly assigned to one of the four treatments to minimize the effects of individual differences on the results. Participants were told to make purchase choices from our product categories. We find that a new product recommended right after a similar existing product and with the source of the expert review will be more likely to be accepted. Based on this study, both theoretical and practical contributions are provided regarding new product recommendation.

Keywords: new product recommendation, recommendation timing, recommendation source, recommendation agents

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Authors: Ganfeng Yu, Yuefeng Ma, Shanliang Yang

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The word discovery is a key problem in text information retrieval technology. Methods in new word discovery tend to be closely related to words because they generally obtain new word results by analyzing words. With the popularity of social networks, individual netizens and online self-media have generated various network texts for the convenience of online life, including network words that are far from standard Chinese expression. How detect network words is one of the important goals in the field of text information retrieval today. In this paper, we integrate the word embedding model and clustering methods to propose a network word discovery framework based on sentence semantic similarity (S³-NWD) to detect network words effectively from the corpus. This framework constructs sentence semantic vectors through a distributed representation model, uses the similarity of sentence semantic vectors to determine the semantic relationship between sentences, and finally realizes network word discovery by the meaning of semantic replacement between sentences. The experiment verifies that the framework not only completes the rapid discovery of network words but also realizes the standard word meaning of the discovery of network words, which reflects the effectiveness of our work.

Keywords: text information retrieval, natural language processing, new word discovery, information extraction

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Authors: Chengfeng Fang, Mohamed Ali Sadakkathulla, Abdul Sheikh

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Ultra-high-performance fiber reinforced concrete (UHPFRC) is a specially formulated cement-based composite characterized with an ultra-high compressive strength (f_c^’ = 240 MPa) and a low water-cement ratio (W/B= 0.2). With such material characteristics, UHPFRC is favored for the design and constructions of structures required high structural performance and slender geometries. Unlike conventional concrete, the structural performance of members manufactured with UHPFRC has not yet been fully studied, particularly, for UHPFRC columns with high slenderness. In this study, the behaviors of slender UHPFRC columns under concentric or eccentric load will be investigated both experimentally and numerically. Four slender UHPFRC columns were tested under eccentric loads with eccentricities, of 0 mm, 35 mm, 50 mm, and 85 mm, respectively, and one UHPFRC beam was tested under four-point bending. Finite element (FE) analysis was conducted with concrete damage plasticity (CDP) modulus to simulating the load-middle height or middle span deflection relationships and damage patterns of all UHPFRC members. Simulated results were compared against the experimental results and observation to gain the confidence of FE model, and this model was further extended to conduct parametric studies, which aim to investigate the effects of slenderness regarding failure modes and load-moment interaction relationships. Experimental results showed that the load bearing capacities of the slender columns reduced with an increase in eccentricity. Comparisons between load-middle height and middle span deflection relationships as well as damage patterns of all UHPFRC members obtained both experimentally and numerically demonstrated high accuracy of the FE simulations. Based on the available FE model, the following parametric study indicated that a further increase in the slenderness of column resulted in significant decreases in the load-bearing capacities, ductility index, and flexural bending capacities.

Keywords: eccentric loads, ductility index, RC column, slenderness, UHPFRC

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Authors: Wenting Zhang, Shishi Liu, Peihong Fu

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As an indicator of air quality and directly related to concentration of ground PM2.5, the spatial-temporal variation and impact factor analysis of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) have been a hot spot in air pollution. This paper concerns the non-stationarity and the autocorrelation (with Moran’s I index of 0.75) of the AOD in Wuhan agglomeration (WHA), in central China, uses the geographically weighted regression (GRW) to identify the spatial relationship of AOD and its impact factors. The 3 km AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) is used in this study. Beyond the economic-social factor, land use density factors, vegetable cover, and elevation, the landscape metric is also considered as one factor. The results suggest that the GWR model is capable of dealing with spatial varying relationship, with R square, corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and standard residual better than that of ordinary least square (OLS) model. The results of GWR suggest that the urban developing, forest, landscape metric, and elevation are the major driving factors of AOD. Generally, the higher AOD trends to located in the place with higher urban developing, less forest, and flat area.

Keywords: aerosol optical depth, geographically weighted regression, land use change, Wuhan agglomeration

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Authors: Sumaira Zafar, Arjumand Zaidi

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During past few years, several floods have adversely affected the areas along lower Indus River. Besides other climate related anomalies, rapidly increasing urbanization and blockage of natural drains due to siltation or encroachments are two other critical causes that may be responsible for these disasters. Due to flat topography of river Indus plains and blockage of natural waterways, drainage of storm water takes time adversely affecting the crop health and soil properties of the area. Government of Sindh is taking a keen interest in revival of natural drainage network in the province and has initiated this work under Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority. In this paper, geospatial techniques are used to analyze landuse/land-cover changes of Larkana district over the past three decades (1980-present) and their impact on natural drainage system. Satellite derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and topographic sheets (recent and 1950) are used to delineate natural drainage pattern of the district. The urban landuse map developed in this study is further overlaid on drainage line layer to identify the critical areas where the natural floodwater flows are being inhibited by urbanization. Rainfall and flow data are utilized to identify areas of heavy flow, whereas, satellite data including Landsat 7 and Google Earth are used to map previous floods extent and landuse/cover of the study area. Alternatives to natural drainage systems are also suggested wherever possible. The output maps of natural drainage pattern can be used to develop a decision support system for urban planners, Sindh development authorities and flood mitigation and management agencies.

Keywords: geospatial techniques, satellite data, natural drainage, flood, urbanization

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Authors: Tarikayehu Amanuel, Abraham Mohammed

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The production of biodiesel from waste materials is becoming an increasingly important research area in the field of renewable energy. One potential waste material source is avocado, a fruit with a large seed and peel that are typically discarded after consumption. This research aims to investigate the feasibility of using avocado waste as a feedstock for the production of biodiesel. The study focuses on extracting oil from the waste material using the transesterification technique and then characterizing the properties of oil to determine its suitability for conversion to biodiesel. The study was conducted experimentally, and a maximum oil yield of 11.583% (150g of oil produced from 1.295kg of avocado waste powder) was obtained from avocado waste powder at an extraction time of 4hr. An 87% fatty acid methyl ester (biodiesel) conversion was also obtained using a methanol/oil ratio of 6:1, 1.3g NaOH, reaction time 60min, and 65°C reaction temperature. Furthermore, from 145 ml of avocado waste oil, 126.15 ml of biodiesel was produced, indicating a high percentage of conversion (87%). Conclusively, the produced biodiesel showed comparable physical and chemical characteristics to that of standard biodiesel samples considered for the study. The results of this research could help to identify a new source of biofuel production while also addressing the issue of waste disposal in the food industry.

Keywords: biodiesel, avocado, transesterification, soxhlet extraction

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Authors: Shamsul Chowdhury

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to present the detailed analysis of the turbulent wave boundary layer produced by progressive finite-amplitude waves theory. Most of the works have done for the mass transport in the turbulent boundary layer assuming the eddy viscosity is not time varying, where the sediment movement is induced by the mean velocity. Near the ocean bottom, the waves produce a thin turbulent boundary layer, where the flow is highly rotational, and shear stress associated with the fluid motion cannot be neglected. The magnitude and the predominant direction of the sediment transport near the bottom are known to be closely related to the flow in the wave induced boundary layer. The magnitude of water particle velocity at the Crest phase differs from the one of the Trough phases due to the non-linearity of the waves, which plays an important role to determine the sediment movement. The non-linearity of the waves become predominant in the surf zone area, where the sediment movement occurs vigorously. Therefore, in order to describe the flow near the bottom and relationship between the flow and the movement of the sediment, the analysis was done using the non-linear boundary layer equation and the finite amplitude wave theory was applied to represent the velocity fields in the turbulent wave boundary layer. At first, the calculation was done for turbulent wave boundary layer by two-dimensional model where throughout the calculation is non-linear. But Stokes second order wave profile is adopted at the upper boundary. The calculated profile was compared with the experimental data. Finally, the calculation is done based on various modes of the velocity and turbulent energy. The mean velocity is found to differ from condition of the relative depth and the roughness. It is also found that due to non-linearity, the absolute value for velocity and turbulent energy as well as Reynolds stress are asymmetric. The mean velocity of the laminar boundary layer is always positive but in the turbulent boundary layer plays a very complicated role.

Keywords: wave boundary, mass transport, mean velocity, shear stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Gunasekaran Raja, Kottilingam Kottursamy, Rajakumar Arul, Ramkumar Jayaraman, Krithika Sairam, Lakshmi Ravi

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The synchronization server maintains a dynamically changing cache, which contains the data items which were requested and collected by the mobile node from the server. The order and presence of tuples in the cache changes dynamically according to the frequency of updates performed on the data, by the server and client. To synchronize, the data which has been modified by client and the server at an instant are collected, batched together by the type of modification (insert/ update/ delete), and sorted according to their update frequencies. This ensures that the DCASH (Dynamic Cache Synchronization Algorithm for Heterogeneous Reverse Y synchronizing Mobile Database Systems) gives priority to the frequently accessed data with high usage. The optimal memory management algorithm is proposed to manage data items according to their frequency, theorems were written to show the current mobile data activity is reverse Y in nature and the experiments were tested with 2g and 3g networks for various mobile devices to show the reduced response time and energy consumption.

Keywords: mobile databases, synchronization, cache, response time

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Teresita Lopez Joy, Jose A. Acevedo Suarez, Martha I. Gomez Acosta, Ana Julia Acevedo Urquiaga

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Current trends in business competitiveness indicate the need to manage businesses as supply chains and not in isolation. The use of strategies aimed at maximum satisfaction of customers in a network and based on inter-company cooperation; contribute to obtaining successful joint results. In the Cuban economic context, the development of productive linkages to achieve integrated management of supply chains is considering a key aspect. In order to achieve this jump, it is necessary to develop acting capabilities in the entities that make up the chains through a systematic procedure that allows arriving at a management model in consonance with the environment. The objective of the research focuses on: designing a model and procedure for the development of integrated management of supply chains in economic entities. The results obtained are: the Model and the Procedure for the Development of the Supply Chains Integrated Management (MP-SCIM). The Model is based on the development of logistics in the network actors, the joint work between companies, collaborative planning and the monitoring of a main indicator according to the end customers. The application Procedure starts from the well-founded need for development in a supply chain and focuses on training entrepreneurs as doers. The characterization and diagnosis is done to later define the design of the network and the relationships between the companies. It takes into account the feedback as a method of updating the conditions and way to focus the objectives according to the final customers. The MP-SCIM is the result of systematic work with a supply chain approach in companies that have consolidated as coordinators of their network. The cases of the edible oil chain and explosives for construction sector reflect results of more remarkable advances since they have applied this approach for more than 5 years and maintain it as a general strategy of successful development. The edible oil trading company experienced a jump in sales. In 2006, the company started the analysis in order to define the supply chain, apply diagnosis techniques, define problems and implement solutions. The involvement of the management and the progressive formation of performance capacities in the personnel allowed the application of tools according to the context. The company that coordinates the explosives chain for construction sector shows adequate training with independence and opportunity in the face of different situations and variations of their business environment. The appropriation of tools and techniques for the analysis and implementation of proposals is a characteristic feature of this case. The coordinating entity applies integrated supply chain management to its decisions based on the timely training of the necessary action capabilities for each situation. Other cases of study and application that validate these tools are also detailed in this paper, and they highlight the results of generalization in the quantitative and qualitative improvement according to the final clients. These cases are: teaching literature in universities, agricultural products of local scope and medicine supply chains.

Keywords: integrated management, logistic system, supply chain management, tactical-operative planning

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Authors: Nadeem Bashir, Ghulam Mustafa Peerzada

Abstract:

The present study pertains to the nonlinear behavior of acetaminophen based uncatalyzed Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) oscillator and its dynamics in the presence of Ferroin as the catalyst. The role of free metal ions as catalysts was examined and the results compared with corresponding complexed catalysts. Free metal ions were found to be sluggish with respect to the evolution of the oscillatory regime as compared to complexed ones. Effect of change of the ligand moiety of the catalyst complex on the oscillatory parameters was monitored. Since ethanol potentiates the hepatotoxicity caused by acetaminophen in-vivo, it is thought to understand this interaction by virtue of causing perturbation of the acetaminophen based oscillator with different concentrations of the ethanol with and without ferroin as the catalyst. Another dimension to the ethanol effect was added by perturbation of the system with ethanol at different stages of the reaction so as to get an idea whether it is acetaminophen or some reactive intermediate generated in the reaction system which reacts with ethanol. Further, the ferroin-catalyzed oscillator is taken as a prototype inorganic model of the acetaminophen-ethanol syndrome, as ferroin and HOBr were inorganic replacements to Cyt P450 and NADPH in the alcohol metabolism.

Keywords: Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction, ferroin, Paracetamol-Ethanol syndrome, kinetics

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Authors: I. Mahmood

Abstract:

This survey was conducted to explore the hypothesis that excessive screen exposure combined with a subsequent decrease in parent-child interaction during infancy might be associated with autism. The main questions being asked are: Were children with autism exposed to long hours of screen time during the first 2 years of life? And what was the reason(s) for exposure at such an early age? Other variables were also addressed in this survey. An Arabic questionnaire was administered online (June 2019) via a Facebook page, relatively well-known in Arab countries. 1725 parents of children diagnosed with autism participated in this survey. Results show that 80.9% of children surveyed who were diagnosed with autism had been exposed to screens for long periods of time during the first 2 years of life. It can be inferred from the results of this survey that over-exposure to screens disrupt the parent-child interaction which is shown to be associated with ASD. The results of this survey highlight the harmful effects of screen exposure during infancy and the importance of parent-child interaction during the critical period of brain development. This paper attempts to further explore the connection between parent-child interaction and ASD, as well as serve as a call for further research and investigation of the relation between screens and parent-child interactions during infancy and Autism.

Keywords: attachment disorder, autism, screen exposure, virtual autism

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Authors: Meng Koon Lee, Mohammad Hosseini Fouladi, Satesh Narayana Namasivayam

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Research is focused on the response of soundboards of Classical guitars at frequencies up to 5 kHz as the soundboard is a major contributor to acoustic radiation at high frequencies when compared to the bridge and sound hole. A thin rectangular plate of variable thickness that is simply-supported on all sides is used as an analytical model of the research. This model is used to study the response of the guitar soundboard as the latter can be considered as a modified form of a rectangular plate. Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM) is selected as a mathematical method to obtain an analytical solution of the 4th-order parabolic partial differential equation of motion of the rectangular plate of constant thickness viewed as a linear problem. This procedure is generalized to the nonlinear problem of the rectangular plate with variable thickness and an analytical solution can also be obtained. Sound power is used as a parameter to investigate the acoustic radiation of soundboards made from spruce using various bracing patterns. The sound power of soundboards made from Malaysian softwood such as damar minyak, sempilor or podo are investigated to determine the viability of replacing spruce as future materials for soundboards of Classical guitars.

Keywords: rectangular plates, analytical solution, homotopy perturbation, natural frequencies

Procedia PDF Downloads 386