Search results for: CARE Model

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sanggoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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We present probabilistic multinomial Dirichlet classification model for multidimensional data and Gaussian process priors. Here, we have considered an efficient computational method that can be used to obtain the approximate posteriors for latent variables and parameters needed to define the multiclass Gaussian process classification model. We first investigated the process of inducing a posterior distribution for various parameters and latent function by using the variational Bayesian approximations and important sampling method, and next we derived a predictive distribution of latent function needed to classify new samples. The proposed model is applied to classify the synthetic multivariate dataset in order to verify the performance of our model. Experiment result shows that our model is more accurate than the other approximation methods.

Keywords: multinomial dirichlet classification model, Gaussian process priors, variational Bayesian approximation, importance sampling, approximate posterior distribution, marginal likelihood evidence

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Authors: Mahacine Amrani

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This paper aims at reviewing some Moroccan industrial applications of wavelet especially in the dynamic identification of a process model using Haar wavelet mother response. Two recent Moroccan study cases are described using dynamic data originated by a distillation column and an industrial polyethylene process plant. The purpose of the wavelet scheme is to build on-line dynamic models. In both case studies, a comparison is carried out between the Haar wavelet mother response model and a linear difference equation model. Finally it concludes, on the base of the comparison of the process performances and the best responses, which may be useful to create an estimated on-line internal model control and its application towards model-predictive controllers (MPC). All calculations were implemented using AutoSignal Software.

Keywords: process performance, model, wavelets, Haar, Moroccan

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Authors: Okike Benjamin, Garba E. J. D.

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The researcher has developed a new encryption technique known as Merged Irregular Transposition Cipher. In this cipher method of encryption, a message to be encrypted is split into parts and each part encrypted separately. Before the encrypted message is transmitted to the recipient(s), the positions of the split in the encrypted messages could be swapped to ensure more security. This work seeks to develop a model by considering the split number, S and the average number of characters per split, L as the message under consideration is split from 2 through 10. Again, after developing the model, the error level in the model would be determined.

Keywords: merged irregular transposition, error level, model estimation, message splitting

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Authors: Mohanaad Talal Shakir

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This paper tries to propose educational design by using multimedia technology for Engineering of computer Technology, Alma'ref University College in Iraq. This paper evaluates the acceptance, cognition, and interactiveness of the proposed model by students by using the statistical relationship to determine the stage of the model. Objectives of proposed education design are to develop a user-friendly software for education purposes using multimedia technology and to develop animation for 3D model to simulate assembling and disassembling process of high-speed flow.

Keywords: CAL, multimedia, shock tunnel, interactivity, engineering education

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Authors: T. S. Sowmya Bhaskaran, Shekhar Seshadri

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This study aims to study the clinical features of with a history of Child Sexual Abuse (CSA). A chart review of 40 children (<16 years) with history of CSA evaluated at the Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry of NIMHANS during a two year period was performed. Results:The most common form of abuse was contact penetrative abuse (65%) followed by non-contact penetrative abuse (32.5%). 75% (N=30) had a psychiatric diagnosis at baseline. 50% of these children had one or more psychiatric comorbidities. Anxiety disorder was the most common diagnosis (27.5%) which included PTSD (11%) followed by Depressive disorder (25.2%). Children abused by multiple perpetrators were found to be more likely to have depression, to having a comorbid psychiatric disorder and more prone to exhibit sexualized behaviour. Children who also experienced physical violence at home were more likely to develop psychiatric illness following child sexual abuse. Psychiatric morbidity is high in clinic population of children with history of CSA. It is important to increase the awareness regarding the consequences of CSA in order to increase help seeking.

Keywords: child sexual abuse, India, tertiary care centre, clinical characteristics

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Authors: Deborah Weidner, Melissa Morgera

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The model of care delivery in the Behavioral Health Network (BHN) is integrated across all five regions of Hartford Healthcare and thus spans the entirety of the state of Connecticut, with care provided in seven inpatient settings and over 30 ambulatory outpatient locations. While safety has been a core priority of the BHN in alignment with High Reliability practices, safety initiatives have historically been facilitated locally in each region or within each entity, with interventions implemented locally as opposed to throughout the network. To address this, the BHN introduced a network wide Safety Huddle during 2022. Launched in January, the BHN Safety Huddle brought together internal stakeholders, including medical and administrative leaders, along with executive institute leadership, quality, and risk management. By bringing leaders together and introducing a network-wide safety huddle into the way we work, the benefit has been an increase in awareness of safety events occurring in behavioral health areas as well as increased systemization of countermeasures to prevent future events. One significant discussion topic presented in huddles has pertained to environmental design and patient access to potentially dangerous items, addressing some of the most relevant factors resulting in harm to patients in inpatient and emergency settings for behavioral health patients. The safety huddle has improved visibility of potential environmental safety risks through the generation of over 15 safety alerts cascaded throughout the BHN and also spurred a rapid improvement project focused on standardization of patient belonging searches to reduce patient access to potentially dangerous items on inpatient units. Safety events pertaining to potentially dangerous items decreased by 31% as a result of standardized interventions implemented across the network and as a result of increased awareness. A second positive outcome originating from the BHN Safety Huddle was implementation of a recommendation to increase the emergency Narcan®(naloxone) supply on hand in ambulatory settings of the BHN after incidents involving accidental overdose resulted in higher doses of naloxone administration. By increasing the emergency supply of naloxone on hand in all ambulatory and residential settings, colleagues are better prepared to respond in an emergency situation should a patient experience an overdose while on site. Lastly, discussions in safety huddle spurred a new initiative within the BHN to improve responsiveness to assaultive incidents through a consultation service. This consult service, aligned with one of the network’s improvement priorities to reduce harm events related to assaultive incidents, was borne out of discussion in huddle in which it was identified that additional interventions may be needed in providing clinical care to patients who are experiencing multiple and/ or frequent safety events.

Keywords: quality, safety, behavioral health, risk management

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Yingchen Yang

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In this study, a diagnostic assessment model for Mastery Engineering Learning was established based on a group of undergraduate students who studied in an engineering course. A diagnostic assessment model can examine both students' learning process and report achievement results. One very unique characteristic is that the diagnostic assessment model can recognize the errors and anything blocking students in their learning processes. The feedback is provided to help students to know how to solve the learning problems with alternative strategies and help the instructor to find alternative pedagogical strategies in the instructional designs. Dynamics is a core course in which is a common course being shared by several engineering programs. This course is a very challenging for engineering students to solve the problems. Thus knowledge acquisition and problem-solving skills are crucial for student success. Therefore, developing an effective and valid assessment model for student learning are of great importance. Diagnostic assessment is such a model which can provide effective feedback for both students and instructor in the mastery of engineering learning.

Keywords: diagnostic assessment, mastery learning, engineering, bayesian network model, learning processes

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults

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Authors: Yu-Yu Wang, Shih-Hua Hsieh, Ru-Shian Hsieh

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Wishes and choices being respected, and the right to be supported rather than coerced, have been internationally recognized as the human rights of persons with mental illness. In Taiwan, ‘coerced hospitalization’ has become difficult since the revision of the mental health legislation in 2007. Despite trend towards human rights, the real problem families face when their family members are in mental health crisis is the lack of alternative services. This study aims to explore: 1) When is hospitalization seen as the only solution by family members? 2) What are the barriers for arranging hospitalization, and how are they managed? 3) What have family carers learned, in their experiences of caring for their family members with mental illness? To answer these questions, qualitative approach was adopted, and focus group interviews were taken to collect data. This study includes 24 family carers. The main findings of this research include: First, hospital is the last resort for carers in helplessness. Family carers tend to do everything they could to provide care at home for their family members with mental illness. Carers seek hospitalization only when a patient’s behavior is too violent, weird, and/or abnormal, and beyond their ability to manage. Hospitalization, nevertheless, is never an easy choice. Obstacles emanate from the attitudes of the medical doctors, the restricted areas of ambulance service, and insufficient information from the carers’ part. On the other hand, with some professionals’ proactive assistance, access to medical care while in crisis becomes possible. Some family carers obtained help from the medical doctor, nurse, therapist and social workers. Some experienced good help from policemen, taxi drivers, and security guards at the hospital. The difficulty in accessing medical care prompts carers to work harder on assisting their family members with mental illness to stay in stable states. Carers found different ways of helping the ‘person’ to get along with the ‘illness’ and have better quality of life. Taking back ‘the right to control’ in utilizing medication, from passiveness to negotiating with medical doctors and seeking alternative therapies, are seen in many carers’ efforts. Besides, trying to maintain regular activities in daily life and play normal family roles are also experienced as important. Furthermore, talking with the patient as a person is also important. The authors conclude that in order to protect the human rights of persons with mental illness, it is crucial to make the medical care system more flexible and to make the services more humane: sufficient information should be provided and communicated, and efforts should be made to maintain the person’s social roles and to support the family.

Keywords: family carers, independent living, mental health crisis, persons with mental illness

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Authors: Seema Singh Parmar, Shweta Chauhan

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Aims & Objectives: To evaluate the presence of various psychiatric disorders in patients reporting with a headache as the only symptom. Methodology: 200 patients with the chief complain of a headache who visited the psychiatric OPD of a tertiary care were investigated. Out of them 50 who had pure psychiatric illness without any other neurological disease were investigated, and their diagnosis was made. Independent sample t-tests were applied to generate results. Results: The most common psychiatric diagnosis seen in the sample was Depression (64%) out of which 47% showed features of Depression with anxious distress. Other psychiatric disorders seen were Generalized Anxiety Disorder, Panic Attacks, Somatic Symptom Disorder and Obsessive Compulsive Disorder. For pure psychiatry, headache related illnesses female to male ratio was 1.64. Conclusion: The increasing frequency of psychiatric disorders among patients who only visit the doctor seeking treat a headache shows the need for better identification of psychiatric disorders because proper diagnosis and target of psychiatric treatment shall give complete relief to the patient’s symptomatology.

Keywords: anxiety disorders, depression, headache, panic attacks

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Authors: Yun Chan Lee

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Background: End-of-life care is a large area of all nursing practice and student nurses are likely to meet dying patients in many placement areas. It is therefore important to understand the emotional responses and coping strategies of student nurses in order for nursing education systems to have some appreciation of how nursing students might be supported in the future. Methodology: This research used a qualitative phenomenological approach. Six student nurses understanding a degree-level adult nursing course were interviewed. Their responses to questions were analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Finding: The findings identified 3 main themes. First, the common experience of ‘unpreparedness’. A very small number of participants felt that this was unavoidable and that ‘no preparation is possible’, the majority felt that they were unprepared because of ‘insufficient input’ from the university and as a result of wider ‘social taboos’ around death and dying. The second theme showed that emotions were affected by ‘the personal connection to the patient’ and the important sub-themes of ‘the evoking of memories’, ‘involvement in care’ and ‘sense of responsibility’. The third theme, the coping strategies used by students, seemed to fall into two broad areas those ‘internal’ with the student and those ‘external’. In terms of the internal coping strategies, ‘detachment’, ‘faith’, ‘rationalization’ and ‘reflective skills’ are the important components of this part. Regarding the external coping strategies, ‘clinical staff’ and ‘the importance of family and friends’ are the importance of accessing external forms of support. Implication: It is clear that student nurses are affected emotionally by caring for dying patients and many of them have apprehension even before they begin on their placements but very often this is unspoken. Those anxieties before the placement become more pronounced during and continue after the placements. This has implications for when support is offered and possibly its duration. Another significant point of the study is that participants often highlighted their wish to speak to qualified nurses after their experiences of being involved in end-of-life care and especially when they had been present at the time of death. Many of the students spoke that qualified nurses were not available to them. This seemed to be due to a number of reasons. Because the qualified nurses were not available, students had to make use of family members and friends to talk to. Consequently, the implication of this study is not only to educate student nurses but also to educate the qualified mentors on the importance of providing emotional support to students.

Keywords: nursing students, coping strategies, end-of-life care, emotional responses

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Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

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This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption, in Romania. Both techno-economic and consumer behavior approaches have been considered, in order to develop the model. The proposed model aims to reduce the energy consumption, in households, by assembling in a unitary model, aspects concerning: residential lighting, space heating, hot water, and combined space heating – hot water, space cooling, and passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating domestic energy consumption model, and quantify not only technical-economic issues, but also consumer behavior impact, related to people decision to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: consumer behavior, open source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model, virtual technologies

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Authors: Samar Mousa, Galini Mavromatidou, Rebecca Shirley

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Surgeons carry out numerous operations in the busy burns and plastic surgery department daily. Writing an accurate operation note with all the essential information is crucial for communication not only within the plastics team but also to the multi-disciplinary team looking after the patient, including other specialties, nurses and GPs. The Royal college of surgeons of England, in its guidelines of good surgical practice, mentioned that the surgeon should ensure that there are clear (preferably typed) operative notes for every procedure. The notes should accompany the patient into recovery and to the ward and should give sufficient detail to enable continuity of care by another doctor. The notes should include the Date and time, Elective/emergency procedure, Names of the operating surgeon and assistant, Name of the theatre anesthetist, Operative procedure carried out, Incision, Operative diagnosis, Operative findings, Any problems/complications, Any extra procedure performed and the reason why it was performed, Details of tissue removed, added or altered, Identification of any prosthesis used, including the serial numbers of prostheses and other implanted materials, Details of closure technique, Anticipated blood loss, Antibiotic prophylaxis (where applicable), DVT prophylaxis (where applicable), Detailed postoperative care instructions and Signature. Fourteen random days were chosen in December 2021 to assess the accuracy of operative notes and post-operative care. A total of 163 operative notes were examined. The average completion rates in all domains were 85.4%. An electronic operative note template was designed to cover all domains mentioned in the Royal College of surgeons' good surgical practice. It is kept in the hospital drive for all surgeons to use.

Keywords: operative notes, plastic surgery, documentation, electronic

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Authors: Cristina Schreiner, Romeo Ciobanu, Marius Pislaru

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This paper aims to build a system based on fuzzy models that can be implemented in the assessment of ecological systems, to determine appropriate methods of action for reducing adverse effects on environmental and implicit the population. The model proposed provides new perspective for environmental assessment, and it can be used as a practical instrument for decision-making.

Keywords: ecosystem model, environmental security, fuzzy logic, sustainability of habitable regions

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Authors: Hassan Al Salman

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We consider a nonlinear parabolic cross diffusion model arising in applied mathematics. A fully practical piecewise linear finite element approximation of the model is studied. By using entropy-type inequalities and compactness arguments, existence of a global weak solution is proved. Providing further regularity of the solution of the model, some uniqueness results and error estimates are established. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed.

Keywords: cross diffusion model, entropy-type inequality, finite element approximation, numerical analysis

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Authors: Chui Ling Teng, R. Matsa

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We report a case with combined overdose of Lercanidipine (non-dihydropyridine calcium channel blocker), Quetiapine (Atypical antipsychotic), Ramipril and Duloxetine. A 66-year old male presented to the Emergency Department 12-hours after the ingestion of 1.2g Lercanidipine, 3g Quetiapine, 280mg of Ramipril and 420mg of Duloxetine. He describes lethargic, drowsiness and was unable to pass any urine since overdosed. He was found to be bradycardic, hypotensive and anuric. He had refractory hypotension and anuric despite fluid resuscitation, glucagon therapy and intravenous naloxone. His care was escalated to Intensive care, requiring noradrenaline, adrenaline, vasopressin, and hyperinsulinaemic euglycaemia therapy. He achieved haemodynamic stability and kidney function improved gradually with the support received. The total length of therapy lasted for 30 horus in which individual therapy was weaned down based on the requirement. He was then transferred to medical ward for further psychiatric assessment. This is a the first repored case of mixed overdose with lercanidipine, Quetiapine, Rampmipril and Duloxetine.

Keywords: calcium channel blocker, hyperinsulinaemic Euglycaemia therapy, lercanidipine, overdose

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Authors: Rui Mao, Heming Ji, Xiaoyu Wang

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Keystroke dynamics are widely used in identity recognition. It has the advantage that the individual typing rhythm is difficult to imitate. It also supports continuous authentication through the keyboard without extra devices. The existing keystroke dynamics authentication methods based on machine learning have a drawback in supporting relatively complex scenarios with massive data. There are drawbacks to both feature extraction and model optimization in these methods. To overcome the above weakness, an authentication model of keystroke dynamics based on deep learning is proposed. The model uses feature vectors formed by keystroke content and keystroke time. It ensures efficient continuous authentication by cooperating attention mechanisms with the combination of CNN and Bi-LSTM. The model has been tested with Open Data Buffalo dataset, and the result shows that the FRR is 3.09%, FAR is 3.03%, and EER is 4.23%. This proves that the model is efficient and accurate on continuous authentication.

Keywords: keystroke dynamics, identity authentication, deep learning, CNN, LSTM

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Authors: Anwar Jarndal

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In this paper, a genetic-neural-network (GNN) based large-signal model for GaN HEMTs is presented along with its parameters extraction procedure. The model is easy to construct and implement in CAD software and requires only DC and S-parameter measurements. An improved decomposition technique is used to model self-heating effect. Two GNN models are constructed to simulate isothermal drain current and power dissipation, respectively. The two model are then composed to simulate the drain current. The modeling procedure was applied to a packaged GaN-on-Si HEMT and the developed model is validated by comparing its large-signal simulation with measured data. A very good agreement between the simulation and measurement is obtained.

Keywords: GaN HEMT, computer-aided design and modeling, neural networks, genetic optimization

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Authors: Abdulrazzak Akroot, Lutfu Namli

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Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are one of the most promising technologies since they can produce electricity directly from fuel and generate a lot of waste heat that is generally used in the gas turbines to promote the general performance of the thermal power plant. In this study, the energy, and exergy analysis of a solid oxide fuel cell/gas turbine hybrid system was proceed in MATLAB to examine the performance characteristics of the hybrid system in two different configurations: anode-supported model and electrolyte-supported model. The obtained results indicate that if the fuel utilization factor reduces from 0.85 to 0.65, the overall efficiency decreases from 64.61 to 59.27% for the anode-supported model whereas it reduces from 58.3 to 56.4% for the electrolyte-supported model. Besides, the overall exergy reduces from 53.86 to 44.06% for the anode-supported model whereas it reduces from 39.96 to 33.94% for the electrolyte-supported model. Furthermore, increasing the air utilization factor has a negative impact on the electrical power output and the efficiencies of the overall system due to the reduction in the O₂ concentration at the cathode-electrolyte interface.

Keywords: solid oxide fuel cell, anode-supported model, electrolyte-supported model, energy analysis, exergy analysis

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

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The purpose of work is to study the phenomenon of agitation of storm waves at basin caused by different directions of waves relative to the current provision thrown numerical model based on the equation in shallow water using Boussinesq model MIKE 21 BW. According to the diminishing effect of penetration of a wave optimal solution will be available to be reproduced in reduced model. Another alternative arrangement throws will be proposed to reduce the agitation and the effects of the swell reflection caused by the penetration of waves in the harbor.

Keywords: agitation, Boussinesq equations, combination, harbor

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Authors: Matthew Perkins-McVey

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The pharmacological arm of mental health treatment is in a state of crisis. The promises of the Prozac century have fallen short; the number of different therapeutically significant medications that successfully complete development shrinks with every passing year, and the demand for better treatments only grows. Answering these hardships is a renewed optimism concerning the efficacy of controlled psychedelic therapy, a renaissance that has seen the return of a familiar concept: intoxication as a model psychosis. First appearing in the mid-19th century and featuring in an array of 20th century efforts in psychedelic research, model psychosis has, once more, come to the foreground of psychedelic research. And yet, little has been made of where this peculiar, perhaps even intoxicatingly mad, the idea originates. This paper seeks to uncover the conceptual foundations underlying the early emergence of model psychosis. This narrative will explore the conceptual foundations behind their independent development of the concept of model psychosis, considering their similarities and differences. In the course of this examination, it becomes apparent that the definition of endogenous psychosis, which formed in the mid-19th century, is the direct product of emerging understandings of exogenous psychosis, or model psychosis. Ultimately, the goal is not merely to understand how and why model psychosis became thinkable but to examine how seemingly secondary concept changes can engender new ways of being a psychiatric subject.

Keywords: history of psychiatry, model psychosis, history of medicine, history of science

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Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee

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The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.

Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting

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Authors: Mario Isaza-Ruget, Claudia C. Colmenares-Mejia, Nancy Yomayusa, Camilo A. González, Andres Cely, Jossie Murcia

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Quantification of risks associated with complications development from chronic kidney disease (CKD) through accurate survival models can help with patient management. A retrospective cohort that included patients diagnosed with CKD from a primary care program and followed up between 2013 and 2018 was carried out. Time-dependent and static covariates associated with demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors were included. Deep Learning (DL) survival analyzes were developed for three CKD outcomes: CKD stage progression, >25% decrease in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR), and Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT). Models were evaluated and compared with Random Survival Forest (RSF) based on concordance index (C-index) metric. 2.143 patients were included. Two models were developed for each outcome, Deep Neural Network (DNN) model reported C-index=0.9867 for CKD stage progression; C-index=0.9905 for reduction in eGFR; C-index=0.9867 for RRT. Regarding the RSF model, C-index=0.6650 was reached for CKD stage progression; decreased eGFR C-index=0.6759; RRT C-index=0.8926. DNN models applied in survival analysis context with considerations of longitudinal covariates at the start of follow-up can predict renal stage progression, a significant decrease in eGFR and RRT. The success of these survival models lies in the appropriate definition of survival times and the analysis of covariates, especially those that vary over time.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chronic kidney disease, deep neural networks, survival analysis

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Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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Authors: R. Nandhini, Gaurab Mudbhari

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Ranging from the field of health care to self-driving cars, machine learning and deep learning algorithms have revolutionized the field with the proper utilization of images and visual-oriented data. Segmentation, regression, classification, clustering, dimensionality reduction, etc., are some of the Machine Learning tasks that helped Machine Learning and Deep Learning models to become state-of-the-art models for the field where images are key datasets. Among these tasks, classification and clustering are essential but difficult because of the intricate and high-dimensional characteristics of image data. This finding examines and assesses advanced techniques in supervised classification and unsupervised clustering for image datasets, emphasizing the relative efficiency of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Vision Transformers (ViTs), Deep Embedded Clustering (DEC), and self-supervised learning approaches. Due to the distinctive structural attributes present in images, conventional methods often fail to effectively capture spatial patterns, resulting in the development of models that utilize more advanced architectures and attention mechanisms. In image classification, we investigated both CNNs and ViTs. One of the most promising models, which is very much known for its ability to detect spatial hierarchies, is CNN, and it serves as a core model in our study. On the other hand, ViT is another model that also serves as a core model, reflecting a modern classification method that uses a self-attention mechanism which makes them more robust as this self-attention mechanism allows them to lean global dependencies in images without relying on convolutional layers. This paper evaluates the performance of these two architectures based on accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score across different image datasets, analyzing their appropriateness for various categories of images. In the domain of clustering, we assess DEC, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and conventional clustering techniques like k-means, which are used on embeddings derived from CNN models. DEC, a prominent model in the field of clustering, has gained the attention of many ML engineers because of its ability to combine feature learning and clustering into a single framework and its main goal is to improve clustering quality through better feature representation. VAEs, on the other hand, are pretty well known for using latent embeddings for grouping similar images without requiring for prior label by utilizing the probabilistic clustering method.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, image classification, image clustering

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Authors: Dorota Miroslaw-Swiatek, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sylwia Szporak

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We applied a two-dimensional surface water flow model with irregular wet boundaries. In this model, flow equations are in the form of a 2-D, non-linear diffusion equations which allows to account spatial variations in flow resistance and topography. Calculation domain to simulate the flow pattern in the floodplain is congruent with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) grid. The rate and direction of sheet flow in wetlands is affected by vegetation type and density, therefore the developed model take into account spatial distribution vegetation resistance to the water flow. The model was tested in a part of the Biebrza Valley, of an outstanding heterogeneity in the elevation and flow resistance distributions due to various ecohydrological conditions and management measures. In our approach we used the highest-possible quality of the DEM in order to obtain hydraulic slopes and vegetation distribution parameters for the modelling. The DEM was created from the cloud of points measured in the LiDAR technology. The LiDAR reflects both the land surface as well as all objects on top of it such as vegetation. Depending on the density of vegetation cover the ability of laser penetration is variable. Therefore to obtain accurate land surface model the “vegetation effect” was corrected using data collected in the field (mostly the vegetation height) and satellite imagery such as Ikonos (to distinguish different vegetation types of the floodplain and represent them spatially). Model simulation was performed for the spring thaw flood in 2009.

Keywords: floodplain flow, Biebrza valley, model simulation, 2D surface flow model

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Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hyunwoo Park, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

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The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.

Keywords: age grouping, aging, mode choice model, multinomial logit model

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Authors: Li Xiaoge, Wang Chaodong

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We introduce the first Chinese Coreference Resolution Model based on BERT (CCRM-BERT) and show that it significantly outperforms all previous work. The key idea is to consider the features of the mention, such as part of speech, width of spans, distance between spans, etc. And the influence of each features on the model is analyzed. The model computes mention embeddings that combine BERT with features. Compared to the existing state-of-the-art span-ranking approach, our model significantly improves accuracy on the Chinese OntoNotes benchmark.

Keywords: BERT, coreference resolution, deep learning, nature language processing

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Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

Abstract:

HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

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Authors: Babak Bashari Rad

Abstract:

A metamorphic computer virus uses different code transformation techniques to mutate its body in duplicated instances. Characteristics and function of new instances are mostly similar to their parents, but they cannot be easily detected by the majority of antivirus in market, as they depend on string signature-based detection techniques. The purpose of this research is to propose a Hidden Markov Model for classification of metamorphic viruses in executable files. In the proposed solution, portable executable files are inspected to extract the instructions opcodes needed for the examination of code. A Hidden Markov Model trained on portable executable files is employed to classify the metamorphic viruses of the same family. The proposed model is able to generate and recognize common statistical features of mutated code. The model has been evaluated by examining the model on a test data set. The performance of the model has been practically tested and evaluated based on False Positive Rate, Detection Rate and Overall Accuracy. The result showed an acceptable performance with high average of 99.7% Detection Rate.

Keywords: malware classification, computer virus classification, metamorphic virus, metamorphic malware, Hidden Markov Model

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