Search results for: model data

Authors: V. Benedico, C. Anacleto, A. Bearzi, L. Brice, V. Delahaye

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The aim in present paper is to construct an affordable and reliable commodity prices based on a recalculation of its cost through time which allows visualize the potential risks and thus, take more appropriate decisions regarding forecasts. Here attention has been focused on Levy model, more reliable and realistic than classical random Gaussian one as it takes into consideration observed abrupt jumps in case of sudden price variation. In application to Energy Trading sector where it has never been used before, equations corresponding to Levy model have been written for electricity pricing in European market. Parameters have been set in order to predict and simulate the price and its evolution through time to remarkable accuracy. As predicted by Levy model, the results show significant spikes which reach unconventional levels contrary to currently used Brownian model.

Keywords: commodity pricing, Lévy Model, price spikes, electricity market

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Sudha T., Naveen C.

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Dengue is a serious public health issue that causes significant annual economic and welfare burdens on nations. However, enhanced optimization techniques and quantitative modeling approaches can predict the incidence of dengue. By advocating for a data-driven approach, public health officials can make informed decisions, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of sudden disease outbreak control efforts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are two of the U.S. Federal Government agencies from which this study uses environmental data. Based on environmental data that describe changes in temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and other factors known to affect dengue incidence, many predictive models are constructed that use different machine learning methods to estimate weekly dengue cases. The first step involves preparing the data, which includes handling outliers and missing values to make sure the data is prepared for subsequent processing and the creation of an accurate forecasting model. In the second phase, multiple feature selection procedures are applied using various machine learning models and optimization techniques. During the third phase of the research, machine learning models like the Huber Regressor, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Support Vector Regressor (SVR) are compared with several optimization techniques for feature selection, such as Harmony Search and Genetic Algorithm. In the fourth stage, the model's performance is evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as assistance. Selecting an optimization strategy with the least number of errors, lowest price, biggest productivity, or maximum potential results is the goal. In a variety of industries, including engineering, science, management, mathematics, finance, and medicine, optimization is widely employed. An effective optimization method based on harmony search and an integrated genetic algorithm is introduced for input feature selection, and it shows an important improvement in the model's predictive accuracy. The predictive models with Huber Regressor as the foundation perform the best for optimization and also prediction.

Keywords: deep learning model, dengue fever, prediction, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Sen Tanmoy, Jain Sarika, Panda Jagabandhu

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The studies regarding the impact of urbanization using the WRF-ARW model rely heavily on the static geographical information selected, including domain configuration and land use land cover (LULC) data. Accurate representation of LULC data provides essential information for understanding urban growth and simulating meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation etc. Researchers are using different LULC data as per availability and their requirements. As far as India is concerned, we have very limited resources and data availability. So, it is important to understand how we can optimize our results using limited LULC data. In this review article, we explored how a LULC map is generated from different sources in the Indian context and what its significance is in WRF-ARW modeling to study urbanization/Climate change or any other meteorological parameters. Bibliometric analyses were also performed in this review article based on countries of study and indexed keywords. Finally, some key points are marked out for selecting the most suitable LULC map for any urbanization-related study.

Keywords: LULC, LULC mapping, LANDSAT, WRF-ARW, ISRO, bibliometric Analysis.

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Authors: Duhania O. Mahara, Santi W. Purnami, Aulia N. Fitria, Merissa N. Z. Wirontono, Revina Musfiroh, Shofi Andari, Sagiran Sagiran, Estiana Khoirunnisa, Wahyudi Widada

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For assessing interventions in numerous disease areas, the use of multiple time-to-event outcomes is common. An individual might experience two different events called bivariate time-to-event data, the events may be correlated because it come from the same subject and also influenced by individual characteristics. The bivariate time-to-event case can be applied by copula-based bivariate Cox survival model, using the Clayton and Frank copulas to analyze the dependence structure of each event and also the covariates effect. By applying this method to modeling the recurrent event infection of hemodialysis insertion on chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, from the AIC and BIC values we find that the Clayton copula model was the best model with Kendall’s Tau is (τ=0,02).

Keywords: bivariate cox, bivariate event, copula function, survival copula

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Ahmed Elaksher, Islam Omar

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For many years, Mars surface has been a mystery for scientists. Lately with the help of geospatial data and photogrammetric procedures researchers were able to capture some insights about this planet. Two of the most imperative data sources to explore Mars are the The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) and the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA). HiRISE is one of six science instruments carried by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, launched August 12, 2005, and managed by NASA. The MOLA sensor is a laser altimeter carried by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and launched on November 7, 1996. In this project, we used MOLA-based DEMs to orthorectify HiRISE optical images for generating a more accurate and trustful surface of Mars. The MOLA data was interpolated using the kriging interpolation technique. Corresponding tie points were digitized from both datasets. These points were employed in co-registering both datasets using GIS analysis tools. In this project, we employed three different 3D to 2D transformation models. These are the parallel projection (3D affine) transformation model; the extended parallel projection transformation model; the Direct Linear Transformation (DLT) model. A set of tie-points was digitized from both datasets. These points were split into two sets: Ground Control Points (GCPs), used to evaluate the transformation parameters using least squares adjustment techniques, and check points (ChkPs) to evaluate the computed transformation parameters. Results were evaluated using the RMSEs between the precise horizontal coordinates of the digitized check points and those estimated through the transformation models using the computed transformation parameters. For each set of GCPs, three different configurations of GCPs and check points were tested, and average RMSEs are reported. It was found that for the 2D transformation models, average RMSEs were in the range of five meters. Increasing the number of GCPs from six to ten points improve the accuracy of the results with about two and half meters. Further increasing the number of GCPs didn’t improve the results significantly. Using the 3D to 2D transformation parameters provided three to two meters accuracy. Best results were reported using the DLT transformation model. However, increasing the number of GCPS didn’t have substantial effect. The results support the use of the DLT model as it provides the required accuracy for ASPRS large scale mapping standards. However, well distributed sets of GCPs is a key to provide such accuracy. The model is simple to apply and doesn’t need substantial computations.

Keywords: mars, photogrammetry, MOLA, HiRISE

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Yu Song, Yuefei Jin

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Urban public transportation can be integrated when there is an efficient connection between urban rail lines, however, there are currently no effective or quick solutions being investigated for this connection. This paper analyzes the space-time distribution and travel demand of passenger connection travel based on taxi track data and data from the road network, excavates potential bus connection stations based on potential connection demand data, and introduces the link growth probability model in the complex network to solve the basic connection bus lines in order to ascertain the direction of the bus lines that are the most connected given the demand characteristics. Then, a tree view exhaustive approach based on constraints is suggested based on graph theory, which can hasten the convergence of findings while doing chain calculations. This study uses WEI QU NAN Station, the Xi'an Metro Line 2 terminal station in Shaanxi Province, as an illustration, to evaluate the model's and the solution method's efficacy. According to the findings, 153 prospective stations have been dug up in total, the feeder bus network for the entire line has been laid out, and the best route adjustment strategy has been found.

Keywords: feeder bus, route optimization, link growth probability, the graph theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Katyana A. Vert-Pre, James T. Thorson, Thomas Trancart, Eric Feunteun

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In marine ecosystems, spatial and temporal species structure is an important component of ecosystems’ response to anthropological and environmental factors. Although spatial distribution patterns and fish temporal series of abundance have been studied in the past, little research has been allocated to the joint dynamic spatio-temporal functional patterns in marine ecosystems and their use in multispecies management and conservation. Each species represents a function to the ecosystem, and the distribution of these species might not be random. A heterogeneous functional distribution will lead to a more resilient ecosystem to external factors. Applying a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal (VAST) model for count data, we estimate the spatio-temporal distribution, shift in time, and abundance of 140 species of the Eastern English Chanel, Bay of Biscay and Mediterranean Sea. From the model outputs, we determined spatio-temporal clusters, calculating p-values for hierarchical clustering via multiscale bootstrap resampling. Then, we designed a functional map given the defined cluster. We found that the species distribution within the ecosystem was not random. Indeed, species evolved in space and time in clusters. Moreover, these clusters remained similar over time deriving from the fact that species of a same cluster often shifted in sync, keeping the overall structure of the ecosystem similar overtime. Knowing the co-existing species within these clusters could help with predicting data-poor species distribution and abundance. Further analysis is being performed to assess the ecological functions represented in each cluster.

Keywords: cluster distribution shift, European marine ecosystems, functional distribution, spatio-temporal model

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Authors: Yihua Wang, Yunru Lai

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Statistical process control has been successfully applied in a variety of industries. In some applications, the quality of a process or product is better characterized and summarized by a functional relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables. A collection of this type of data is called a profile. Profile monitoring is used to understand and check the stability of this relationship or curve over time. The independent assumption for the error term is commonly used in the existing profile monitoring studies. However, in many applications, the profile data show correlations over time. Therefore, we focus on a general linear regression model with a first-order autocorrelation between profiles in this study. We propose an exponentially weighted moving average charting scheme to monitor this type of profile. The simulation study shows that our proposed methods outperform the existing schemes based on the average run length criterion.

Keywords: autocorrelation, EWMA control chart, general linear regression model, profile monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Jaroslav Krutil, Simona Fialová, , František Pochylý

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A nonlinear mathematical model of mutual fluid-structure interaction is presented in the work. The model is applicable to the general shape of sealing gaps. An in compressible fluid and turbulent flow is assumed. The shaft carries a rotational and procession motion, the gap is axially flowed through. The achieved results of the additional mass, damping and stiffness matrices may be used in the solution of the rotor dynamics. The usage of this mathematical model is expected particularly in hydraulic machines. The method of control volumes in the ANSYS Fluent was used for the simulation. The obtained results of the pressure and velocity fields are used in the mathematical model of additional effects.

Keywords: nonlinear mathematical model, CFD modeling, hydrodynamic sealing gap, matrices of mass, stiffness, damping

Procedia PDF Downloads 517

Authors: Samar Alkindy

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Purpose: The BIM model has been used to support the planning of different construction projects in the industry by showing the different stages of the construction process. The model has been instrumental in identifying some of the common errors in the construction process through the spatial arrangement. The continuous use of the BIM model in the construction industry has resulted in various radical changes such as virtual prototyping. Construction virtual prototyping is a highly advanced technology that incorporates a BIM model with realistic graphical simulations, and facilitates the simulation of the project before a product is built in the factory. The paper presents virtual prototyping in the construction industry by examining its application, challenges and benefits to a construction project. Methodology approach: A case study was conducted for this study in four major construction projects, which incorporate virtual construction prototyping in several stages of the construction project. Furthermore, there was the administration of interviews with the project manager and engineer and the planning manager. Findings: Data collected from the methodological approach shows a positive response for virtual construction prototyping in construction, especially concerning communication and visualization. Furthermore, the use of virtual prototyping has increased collaboration and efficiency between construction experts handling a project. During the planning stage, virtual prototyping has increased accuracy, reduced planning time, and reduced the amount of rework during the implementation stage. Irrespective of virtual prototyping being a new concept in the construction industry, the findings outline that the approach will benefit the management of construction projects.

Keywords: construction operations, construction planning, process simulation, virtual prototyping

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Jiwan Kumar, Pooja, Sandeep Negi, Anjum Rouf, Amit Kumar, Naveen Lakra

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In modern times where, health issues are increasing day by day, breast cancer is also one of them, which is very crucial and really important to find in the early stages. Doctors can use this model in order to tell their patients whether a cancer is not harmful (benign) or harmful (malignant). We have used the knowledge of machine learning in order to produce the model. we have used algorithms like Logistic Regression, Random forest, support Vector Classifier, Bayesian Network and Radial Basis Function. We tried to use the data of crucial parts and show them the results in pictures in order to make it easier for doctors. By doing this, we're making ML better at finding breast cancer, which can lead to saving more lives and better health care.

Keywords: Bayesian network, radial basis function, ensemble learning, understandable, data making better, random forest, logistic regression, breast cancer

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Authors: Yash Jain

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The US Center for Disease Control has recommended wearing masks to slow the spread of the virus. The research uses a video feed from a camera to conduct real-time classifications of whether or not a human is correctly wearing a mask, incorrectly wearing a mask, or not wearing a mask at all. Utilizing two distinct datasets from the open-source website Kaggle, a mask detection network had been trained. The first dataset that was used to train the model was titled 'Face Mask Detection' on Kaggle, where the dataset was retrieved from and the second dataset was titled 'Face Mask Dataset, which provided the data in a (YOLO Format)' so that the TinyYoloV3 model could be trained. Based on the data from Kaggle, two machine learning models were implemented and trained: a Tiny YoloV3 Real-time model and a two-stage neural network classifier. The two-stage neural network classifier had a first step of identifying distinct faces within the image, and the second step was a classifier to detect the state of the mask on the face and whether it was worn correctly, incorrectly, or no mask at all. The TinyYoloV3 was used for the live feed as well as for a comparison standpoint against the previous two-stage classifier and was trained using the darknet neural network framework. The two-stage classifier attained a mean average precision (MAP) of 80%, while the model trained using TinyYoloV3 real-time detection had a mean average precision (MAP) of 59%. Overall, both models were able to correctly classify stages/scenarios of no mask, mask, and incorrectly worn masks.

Keywords: datasets, classifier, mask-detection, real-time, TinyYoloV3, two-stage neural network classifier

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Miguel Mariano Rivera Galvan

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The purpose of this research was to create a digital tool by which users can obtain an immediate and accurate solution of the angular characteristics of an irregular quadrilateral. The development of this project arose because of the frequent absence of a polygon’s geometric information in land ownership accreditation documents. The researcher created a mathematical model using a linear approximation iterative method, employing various disciplines and techniques including trigonometry, geometry, algebra, and topography. This mathematical model uses as input data the surface of the quadrilateral, as well as the length of its sides, to obtain its interior angles and make possible its representation in a coordinate system. The results are as accurate and reliable as the user requires, offering the possibility of using this tool as a support to develop future engineering and architecture projects quickly and reliably.

Keywords: digital tool, geometry, mathematical model, quadrilateral, solution

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: J. H. Park, R. H. Hwang, K. B. Yi

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Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is one of the important technology to reduce the CO₂ emission from large stationary sources such as a power plant. Among the carbon technologies for power plants, chemical looping combustion (CLC) has attracted much attention due to a higher thermal efficiency and a lower cost of electricity. A CLC process is consists of a fuel reactor and an air reactor which are interconnected fluidized bed reactor. In the fuel reactor, an oxygen carrier (OC) is reduced by fuel gas such as CH₄, H₂, CO. And the OC is send to air reactor and oxidized by air or O₂ gas. The oxidation and reduction reaction of OC occurs between the two reactors repeatedly. In the CLC system, high concentration of CO₂ can be easily obtained by steam condensation only from the fuel reactor. It is very important to understand the oxidation and reduction characteristics of oxygen carrier in the CLC system to determine the solids circulation rate between the air and fuel reactors, and the amount of solid bed materials. In this study, we have conducted the experiment and interpreted oxidation and reduction reaction characteristics via observing weight change of Ni-based oxygen carrier using the TGA with varying as concentration and temperature. Characterizations of the oxygen carrier were carried out with BET, SEM. The reaction rate increased with increasing the temperature and increasing the inlet gas concentration. We also compared experimental results and adapted basic reaction kinetic model (JMA model). JAM model is one of the nucleation and nuclei growth models, and this model can explain the delay time at the early part of reaction. As a result, the model data and experimental data agree over the arranged conversion and time with overall variance (R²) greater than 98%. Also, we calculated activation energy, pre-exponential factor, and reaction order through the Arrhenius plot and compared with previous Ni-based oxygen carriers.

Keywords: chemical looping combustion, kinetic, nickel-based, oxygen carrier, spray drying method

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Julio Franco

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Water is used, directly and indirectly, in all activities of the construction productive chain, making it a subject of worldwide relevance for sustainable development. The ongoing expansion of urban areas leads to a high demand for natural resources, which in turn cause significant environmental impacts. The present work proposes the application of BIM tools to assist the measurement of the water footprint (WF) of civil construction supplies. Data was inserted into the model as element properties, allowing them to be analyzed by element or in the whole model. The WF calculation was automated using parameterization in Autodesk Revit software. Parameterization was associated to the materials of each element in the model so that any changes in these elements directly alter the results of WF calculations. As a case study, we applied into a building project model to test the parameterized calculus of WF. Results show that the proposed parameterization successfully automated WF calculations according to design changes. We envision this tool to assist the measurement and rationalization of the environmental impact in terms of WF of construction projects.

Keywords: building information modeling, BIM, sustainable development, water footprint

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Grienggrai Rajchakit

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As we all know that coronavirus is announced as a pandemic in the world by WHO. It is speeded all over the world with few days of time. To control this spreading, every citizen maintains social distance and self-preventive measures are the best strategies. As of now, many researchers and scientists are continuing their research in finding out the exact vaccine. The machine learning model finds that the coronavirus disease behaves in an exponential manner. To abolish the consequence of this pandemic, an efficient step should be taken to analyze this disease. In this paper, a recurrent neural network model is chosen to predict the number of active cases in a particular state. To make this prediction of active cases, we need a database. The database of COVID-19 is downloaded from the KAGGLE website and is analyzed by applying a recurrent LSTM neural network with univariant features to predict the number of active cases of patients suffering from the corona virus. The downloaded database is divided into training and testing the chosen neural network model. The model is trained with the training data set and tested with a testing dataset to predict the number of active cases in a particular state; here, we have concentrated on Andhra Pradesh state.

Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, KAGGLE, LSTM neural network, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Lavan Vickneson

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In today’s modern economy, the conventional banking model is the primary banking system used around the world. A significant problem faced by the conventional banking model is the recurring nature of banking crises. History’s record of the various banking crises, ranging from the Great Depression to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, is testament to the fact that banking crises continue to strike despite the preventive measures in place, such as bank’s minimum capital requirements and deposit guarantee schemes. If banking crises continue to occur despite these preventive measures, it necessarily follows that there are inherent flaws with the conventional banking model itself. In light of this, a possible alternative banking model to the conventional banking model is Islamic banking. To date, Islamic banking has been a niche market, predominantly serving Muslim investors. This paper seeks to explore the possibility of Islamic banking being more than just a niche market and playing a greater role in banking sectors around the world, by being a viable alternative to the conventional banking model.

Keywords: bank crises, conventional banking model, Islamic banking, niche market

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Rene Hellmuth

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Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the construction of a factory. The requirements for factory planning and the building of a factory have changed in recent years. Regular restructuring of the factory building is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A building information model (BIM) is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable data repository to be able to react quickly to changes. Use as a planning basis for restructuring measures in factories only succeeds if the BIM model has adequate data quality. Under this aspect and the industrial requirement, three data quality factors are particularly important for this paper regarding the BIM model: up-to-dateness, completeness, and correctness. The research question is: how can a BIM model be kept up to date with required data quality and which visualization techniques can be applied in a short period of time on the construction site during conversion measures? An as-is analysis is made of how BIM models and digital factory models (including laser scans) are currently being kept up to date. Industrial companies are interviewed, and expert interviews are conducted. Subsequently, the results are evaluated, and a procedure conceived how cost-effective and timesaving updating processes can be carried out. The availability of low-cost hardware and the simplicity of the process are of importance to enable service personnel from facility mnagement to keep digital factory models (BIM models and laser scans) up to date. The approach includes the detection of changes to the building, the recording of the changing area, and the insertion into the overall digital twin. Finally, an overview of the possibilities for visualizations suitable for construction sites is compiled. An augmented reality application is created based on an updated BIM model of a factory and installed on a tablet. Conversion scenarios with costs and time expenditure are displayed. A user interface is designed in such a way that all relevant conversion information is available at a glance for the respective conversion scenario. A total of three essential research results are achieved: As-is analysis of current update processes for BIM models and laser scans, development of a time-saving and cost-effective update process and the conception and implementation of an augmented reality solution for BIM models suitable for construction sites.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory model, factory planning, restructuring

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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In biomedical researches and randomized clinical trials, the most commonly interested outcomes are time-to-event so-called survival data. The importance of robust models in this context is to compare the effect of randomly controlled experimental groups that have a sense of causality. Causal estimation is the scientific concept of comparing the pragmatic effect of treatments conditional to the given covariates rather than assessing the simple association of response and predictors. Hence, the causal effect based semiparametric transformation model was proposed to estimate the effect of treatment with the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Due to its high flexibility and robustness, the semiparametric transformation model which shall be applied in this paper has been given much more attention for estimation of a causal effect in modeling left-truncated and right censored survival data. Despite its wide applications and popularity in estimating unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation technique is quite complex and burdensome in estimating unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function in the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Thus, to ease the complexity we proposed the modified estimating equations. After intuitive estimation procedures, the consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were derived and the characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance of the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data example. To sum up the study, the bias of covariates was adjusted via estimating the density function for truncation variable which was also incorporated in the model as a covariate in order to relax the independence assumption of failure time and truncation time. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm was described for the estimation of iterative unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function. In addition, the causal effect was derived by the ratio of the cumulative hazard function of active and passive experiments after adjusting for bias raised in the model due to the truncation variable.

Keywords: causal estimation, EM algorithm, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Faiza Babur Khan, Sohail Asghar

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With an emergence of distributed environment, cloud computing is proving to be the most stimulating computing paradigm shift in computer technology, resulting in spectacular expansion in IT industry. Many companies have augmented their technical infrastructure by adopting cloud resource sharing architecture. Cloud computing has opened doors to unlimited opportunities from application to platform availability, expandable storage and provision of computing environment. However, from a security viewpoint, an added risk level is introduced from clouds, weakening the protection mechanisms, and hardening the availability of privacy, data security and on demand service. Issues of trust, confidentiality, and integrity are elevated due to multitenant resource sharing architecture of cloud. Trust or reliability of cloud refers to its capability of providing the needed services precisely and unfailingly. Confidentiality is the ability of the architecture to ensure authorization of the relevant party to access its private data. It also guarantees integrity to protect the data from being fabricated by an unauthorized user. So in order to assure provision of secured cloud, a roadmap or model is obligatory to analyze a security problem, design mitigation strategies, and evaluate solutions. The aim of the paper is twofold; first to enlighten the factors which make cloud security critical along with alleviation strategies and secondly to propose an intrusion detection model that identifies the attackers in a preventive way using machine learning Random Forest classifier with an accuracy of 99.8%. This model uses less number of features. A comparison with other classifiers is also presented.

Keywords: cloud security, threats, machine learning, random forest, classification

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Authors: Laleh Boroumand, Muhammad Shiraz, Abdullah Gani, Rashid Hafeez Khokhar

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Cloud computing being the use of hardware and software that are delivered as a service over a network has its application in the area of health care. Due to the emergency cases reported in most of the medical centers, prompt for an efficient scheme to make health data available with less response time. To this end, we propose a mobile global healthcare village (MGHV) model that combines the components of three deployment model which include country, continent and global health cloud to help in solving the problem mentioned above. In the creation of continent model, two (2) data centers are created of which one is local and the other is global. The local replay the request of residence within the continent, whereas the global replay the requirements of others. With the methods adopted, there is an assurance of the availability of relevant medical data to patients, specialists, and emergency staffs regardless of locations and time. From our intensive experiment using the simulation approach, it was observed that, broker policy scheme with respect to optimized response time, yields a very good performance in terms of reduction in response time. Though, our results are comparable to others when there is an increase in the number of virtual machines (80-640 virtual machines). The proportionality in increase of response time is within 9%. The results gotten from our simulation experiments shows that utilizing MGHV leads to the reduction of health care expenditures and helps in solving the problems of unqualified medical staffs faced by both developed and developing countries.

Keywords: cloud computing (MCC), e-healthcare, availability, response time, service broker policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor Sookia

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In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that 'fat-tailedness' alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: extreme value theory, financial crisis 2008, value at risk, frontier markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Bernard Igoche Igoche, Olumuyiwa Matthew, Peter Bednar, Alexander Gegov

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This study presents an ontology-driven approach for knowledge discovery and validation from admission databases in Nigerian polytechnic institutions. The research aims to address the challenges of extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of admission data and utilizing them for decision-making and process improvement. The proposed methodology combines the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) process with a structural causal model (SCM) ontological framework. The admission database of Benue State Polytechnic Ugbokolo (Benpoly) is used as a case study. The KDD process is employed to mine and distill knowledge from the database, while the SCM ontology is designed to identify and validate the important features of the admission process. The SCM validation is performed using the conditional independence test (CIT) criteria, and an algorithm is developed to implement the validation process. The identified features are then used for machine learning (ML) modeling and prediction of admission status. The results demonstrate the adequacy of the SCM ontological framework in representing the admission process and the high predictive accuracies achieved by the ML models, with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) achieving 92% accuracy. The study concludes that the proposed ontology-driven approach contributes to the advancement of educational data mining and provides a foundation for future research in this domain.

Keywords: admission databases, educational data mining, machine learning, ontology-driven knowledge discovery, polytechnic education, structural causal model

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Authors: Mohammad Bakhshandeh

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Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is a crucial and necessary practice that plays a vital role in ensuring the safety and integrity of critical structures, and in particular, bridges. The continuous monitoring of bridges for signs of damage or degradation through Bridge Health Monitoring (BHM) enables early detection of potential problems, allowing for prompt corrective action to be taken before significant damage occurs. Although all monitoring techniques aim to provide accurate and decisive information regarding the remaining useful life, safety, integrity, and serviceability of bridges, understanding the development and propagation of damage is vital for maintaining uninterrupted bridge operation. Over the years, extensive research has been conducted on BHM methods, and experts in the field have increasingly adopted new methodologies. In this article, we provide a comprehensive exploration of the various BHM approaches, including sensor-based, non-destructive testing (NDT), model-based, and artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods. We also discuss the challenges associated with BHM, including sensor placement and data acquisition, data analysis and interpretation, cost and complexity, and environmental effects, through an extensive review of relevant literature and research studies. Additionally, we examine potential solutions to these challenges and propose future research ideas to address critical gaps in BHM.

Keywords: structural health monitoring (SHM), bridge health monitoring (BHM), sensor-based methods, machine-learning algorithms, and model-based techniques, sensor placement, data acquisition, data analysis

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Authors: Petr Gurný

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One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the credit-scoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: credit-scoring models, multidimensional subordinated Lévy model, probability of default

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Authors: M. Bruzza, M. Tupia, F. Rodríguez

Abstract:

As part of the regulatory compliance process and the streamlining of public administration, the Peruvian government has implemented the National E-Government Plan in all state institutions with the aim of providing citizens with solid services based on the use of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT). As part of the regulations, the requisites to be met by public institutions have been submitted. However, the lack of an implementation model was detected, one that can serve as a guide to such institutions in order to materialize the organizational and technological structures needed, which allow them to provide the required digital services. This paper develops an implementation model of electronic government (e-government) for Peru’s state institutions, in compliance with current regulations based on a COBIT 5.0 framework. Furthermore, the paper introduces phase 1 of this model: business and IT goals, the goals cascade and the future model of processes.

Keywords: e-government, u-government, COBIT, implementation model

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Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

Abstract:

In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

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Authors: Shengwei Zhu, Alireza Afshani, Hirokazu Akagi

Abstract:

Ground surface settlement induced by shield tunneling is addressing increasing attention as shield tunneling becomes a popular construction technique for tunnels in urban areas. This paper discusses a 2D longitudinal FEM simulation of a tunneling case study in Japan (Tokyo Metro Yurakucho Line). Tunneling-induced field data was already collected and is used here for comparison and evaluating purposes. In this model, earth pressure, face pressure, backfilling grouting, elastic tunnel lining, and Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion for soil elements are considered. A method called ‘stress relaxation’ is also exploited to simulate the gradual tunneling excavation. Ground surface settlements obtained from numerical results using the introduced method are then compared with the measurement data.

Keywords: 2D longitudinal FEM model, tunneling case study, stress relaxation, shield tunneling excavation

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Authors: M. S. Maglasang, S. O. Palacio, L. P. Ogdoc

Abstract:

Business Process Outsourcing has been one of the fastest growing and emerging industry in the Philippines today. Unlike most of the contact service centers, more popularly known as "call centers", The BPO Industry’s primary outsourced service is performing audits of the global clients' logistics. As a service industry, manpower is considered as the most important yet the most expensive resource in the company. Because of this, there is a need to maximize the human resources so people are effectively and efficiently utilized. The main purpose of the study is to optimize the current manpower resources through effective distribution and assignment of different types of bills to the different skill-level of data entry operators. The assignment model parameters include the average observed time matrix gathered from through time study, which incorporates the learning curve concept. Subsequently, a simulation model was made to duplicate the arrival rate of demand which includes the different batches and types of bill per day. Next, a mathematical linear programming model was formulated. Its objective is to minimize direct labor cost per bill by allocating the different types of bills to the different skill-levels of operators. Finally, a hypothesis test was done to validate the model, comparing the actual and simulated results. The analysis of results revealed that the there’s low utilization of effective capacity because of its failure to determine the product-mix, skill-mix, and simulated demand as model parameters. Moreover, failure to consider the effects of learning curve leads to overestimation of labor needs. From 107 current number of operators, the proposed model gives a result of 79 operators. This results to an increase of utilization of effective capacity to 14.94%. It is recommended that the excess 28 operators would be reallocated to the other areas of the department. Finally, a manpower capacity planning model is also recommended in support to management’s decisions on what to do when the current capacity would reach its limit with the expected increasing demand.

Keywords: optimization modelling, linear programming, simulation, time and motion study, capacity planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 497

Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

Abstract:

The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 326