Search results for: commodity price uncertainties

Authors: Marju Ben Sayed, Shigeko Haruyama

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Among all kinds of natural disaster, the flood is a common feature in rapidly urbanizing Dhaka city. In this research, assessment of flood risk of Dhaka metropolitan area has been investigated by using an integrated approach of GIS, remote sensing and socio-economic data. The purpose of the study is to measure the flooding risk concerning with the flood protection embankment in big flooding events (1988, 1998 and 2004) and urbanization of Dhaka metropolitan zone. In this research, we considered the Dhaka city into two parts; East Dhaka (outside the flood protection embankment) and West Dhaka (inside the flood protection embankment). Using statistical data, we explored the socio-economic status of the study area population by comparing the density of population, land price and income level. We have drawn the cross section profile of the flood protection embankment into three different points for realizing the flooding risk in the study area, especially in the big flooding year (1988, 1998 and 2004). According to the physical condition of the study area, the land use/land cover map has been classified into five classes. Comparing with each land cover unit, historical weather station data and the socio-economic data, the flooding risk has been evaluated. Moreover, we compared between DEM data and each land cover units to find out the relationship with flood. It is expected that, this study could contribute to effective flood forecasting, relief and emergency management for a future flood event in Dhaka city.

Keywords: land use, land cover change, socio-economic, Dhaka city, GIS, flood

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Authors: Anitha Muralidhara, Victor Engelen, Christophe Len, Pascal Pandard, Guy Marlair

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Production of bio-based chemicals and materials from lignocellulosic biomass is gaining tremendous importance in advanced bio-refineries while aiming towards progressive replacement of petroleum based chemicals in transportation fuels and commodity polymers. One such attempt has resulted in the production of key furan derivatives (FD) such as furfural, HMF, MMF etc., via acid catalyzed dehydration (ACD) of C6 and C5 sugars, which are further converted into key chemicals or intermediates (such as Furandicarboxylic acid, Furfuryl alcohol etc.,). In subsequent processes, many high potential FD are produced, that can be converted into high added value polymers or high energy density biofuels. During ACD, an unavoidable polyfuranic byproduct is generated which is called humins. The family of FD is very large with varying chemical structures and diverse physicochemical properties. Accordingly, the associated risk profiles may largely vary. Hazardous Material (Haz-mat) classification systems such as GHS (CLP in the EU) and the UN TDG Model Regulations for transport of dangerous goods are one of the preliminary requirements for all chemicals for their appropriate classification, labelling, packaging, safe storage, and transportation. Considering the growing application routes of FD, it becomes important to notice the limited access to safety related information (safety data sheets available only for famous compounds such as HMF, furfural etc.,) in these internationally recognized haz-mat classification systems. However, these classifications do not necessarily provide information about the extent of risk involved when the chemical is used in any specific application. Factors such as thermal stability, speed of combustion, chemical incompatibilities, etc., can equally influence the safety profile of a compound, that are clearly out of the scope of any haz-mat classification system. Irrespective of the bio-based origin, FD has so far received inconsistent remarks concerning their toxicity profiles. With such inconsistencies, there is a fear that, a large family of FD may also follow extreme judgmental scenarios like ionic liquids, by ranking some compounds as extremely thermally stable, non-flammable, etc., Unless clarified, these messages could lead to misleading judgements while ranking the chemical based on its hazard rating. Safety is a key aspect in any sustainable biorefinery operation/facility, which is often underscored or neglected. To fill up these existing data gaps and to address ambiguities and discrepancies, the current study focuses on giving preliminary insights on safety assessment of FD and their potential targeted by-products. With the available information in the literature and obtained experimental results, physicochemical safety, environmental safety as well as (a scenario based) fire safety profiles of key FD, as well as side streams such as humins and levulinic acid, will be considered. With this, the study focuses on defining patterns and trends that gives coherent safety related information for existing and newly synthesized FD in the market for better functionality and sustainable applications.

Keywords: furanics, humins, safety, thermal and fire hazard, toxicity

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Authors: Ammar Y. Alqahtani

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In order to minimize the negative impact on the environment, it is essential to manage the waste that generated from the premature disposal of end-of-life (EOL) products properly. Consequently, government and international organizations introduced new policies and regulations to minimize the amount of waste being sent to landfills. Moreover, the consumers’ awareness regards environment has forced original equipment manufacturers to consider being more environmentally conscious. Therefore, manufacturers have thought of different ways to deal with waste generated from EOL products viz., remanufacturing, reusing, recycling, or disposing of EOL products. The rate of depletion of virgin natural resources and their dependency on the natural resources can be reduced by manufacturers when EOL products are treated as remanufactured, reused, or recycled, as well as this will cut on the amount of harmful waste sent to landfills. However, disposal of EOL products contributes to the problem and therefore is used as a last option. Number of EOL need to be estimated in order to fulfill the components demand. Then, disassembly process needs to be performed to extract individual components and subassemblies. Smart products, built with sensors embedded and network connectivity to enable the collection and exchange of data, utilize sensors that are implanted into products during production. These sensors are used for remanufacturers to predict an optimal warranty policy and time period that should be offered to customers who purchase remanufactured components and products. Sensor-provided data can help to evaluate the overall condition of a product, as well as the remaining lives of product components, prior to perform a disassembly process. In this paper, a multi-period disassembly-to-order (DTO) model is developed that takes into consideration the different system uncertainties. The DTO model is solved using Nonlinear Programming (NLP) in multiple periods. A DTO system is considered where a variety of EOL products are purchased for disassembly. The model’s main objective is to determine the best combination of EOL products to be purchased from every supplier in each period which maximized the total profit of the system while satisfying the demand. This paper also addressed the impact of sensor embedded products on the cost of warranties. Lastly, this paper presented and analyzed a case study involving various simulation conditions to illustrate the applicability of the model.

Keywords: closed-loop supply chains, environmentally conscious manufacturing, product recovery, reverse logistics

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Authors: Guenther Schuh, Michael Riesener, Frederic Diels

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Nowadays, manufacturing companies are faced with the challenge of meeting heterogeneous customer requirements in short product life cycles with a variety of product functions. So far, some of the functional requirements remain unknown until late stages of the product development. A way to handle these uncertainties is the highly iterative product development (HIP) approach. By structuring the development project as a highly iterative process, this method provides customer oriented and marketable products. There are first approaches for combined, hybrid models comprising deterministic-normative methods like the Stage-Gate process and empirical-adaptive development methods like SCRUM on a project management level. However, almost unconsidered is the question, which development scopes can preferably be realized with either empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative approaches. In this context, a development scope constitutes a self-contained section of the overall development objective. Therefore, this paper focuses on a methodology that deals with the uncertainty of requirements within the early development stages and the corresponding selection of the most appropriate development approach. For this purpose, internal influencing factors like a company’s technology ability, the prototype manufacturability and the potential solution space as well as external factors like the market accuracy, relevance and volatility will be analyzed and combined into an Agile-Indicator. The Agile-Indicator is derived in three steps. First of all, it is necessary to rate each internal and external factor in terms of the importance for the overall development task. Secondly, each requirement has to be evaluated for every single internal and external factor appropriate to their suitability for empirical-adaptive development. Finally, the total sums of internal and external side are composed in the Agile-Indicator. Thus, the Agile-Indicator constitutes a company-specific and application-related criterion, on which the allocation of empirical-adaptive and deterministic-normative development scopes can be made. In a last step, this indicator will be used for a specific clustering of development scopes by application of the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering algorithm. The FCM-method determines sub-clusters within functional clusters based on the empirical-adaptive environmental impact of the Agile-Indicator. By means of the methodology presented in this paper, it is possible to classify requirements, which are uncertainly carried out by the market, into empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative development scopes.

Keywords: agile, highly iterative development, agile-indicator, product development

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Authors: Mahya Naghipoor

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Purpose: Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the most common lung cancer type. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation is the main reason which causes NSCLC. Computed tomography (CT) is used for diagnosis and prognosis of lung cancers because of low price and little invasion. Semantic analyses of qualitative CT features are based on visual evaluation by radiologist. However, the naked eye ability may not assess all image features. On the other hand, radiomics provides the opportunity of quantitative analyses for CT images features. The aim of this review study was comparing accuracy of semantic and radiomics features in prognosis of EGFR mutation in NSCLC. Methods: For this purpose, the keywords including: non-small cell lung cancer, epidermal growth factor receptor mutation, semantic, radiomics, feature, receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) and area under curve (AUC) were searched in PubMed and Google Scholar. Totally 29 papers were reviewed and the AUC of ROC analyses for semantic and radiomics features were compared. Results: The results showed that the reported AUC amounts for semantic features (ground glass opacity, shape, margins, lesion density and presence or absence of air bronchogram, emphysema and pleural effusion) were %41-%79. For radiomics features (kurtosis, skewness, entropy, texture, standard deviation (SD) and wavelet) the AUC values were found %50-%86. Conclusions: In conclusion, the accuracy of radiomics analysis is a little higher than semantic in prognosis of EGFR mutation in NSCLC.

Keywords: lung cancer, radiomics, computer tomography, mutation

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Authors: Ma Yuzhe, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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The computer is a great invention. As people use computers more and more frequently, the demand for PCs is growing, and the performance of computer hardware is also rising to face more complex processing and operation. However, the operating system, which provides the soul for computers, has stopped developing at a stage. In the face of the high price of UNIX (Uniplexed Information and Computering System), batch after batch of personal computer owners can only give up. Disk Operating System is too simple and difficult to bring innovation into play, which is not a good choice. And MacOS is a special operating system for Apple computers, and it can not be widely used on personal computers. In this environment, Linux, based on the UNIX system, was born. Linux combines the advantages of the operating system and is composed of many microkernels, which is relatively powerful in the core architecture. Linux system supports all Internet protocols, so it has very good network functions. Linux supports multiple users. Each user has no influence on their own files. Linux can also multitask and run different programs independently at the same time. Linux is a completely open source operating system. Users can obtain and modify the source code for free. Because of these advantages of Linux, it has also attracted a large number of users and programmers. The Linux system is also constantly upgraded and improved. It has also issued many different versions, which are suitable for community use and commercial use. Linux system has good security because it relies on a file partition system. However, due to the constant updating of vulnerabilities and hazards, the using security of the operating system also needs to be paid more attention to. This article will focus on the analysis and discussion of Linux security issues.

Keywords: Linux, operating system, system management, security

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Authors: Achim Kampker, Christoph Deutskens, Heiner Hans Heimes, Mathias Ordung, Felix Optehostert

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In the past years electric mobility became part of a public discussion. The trend to fully electrified vehicles instead of vehicles fueled with fossil energy has notably gained momentum. Today nearly every big car manufacturer produces and sells fully electrified vehicles, but electrified vehicles are still not as competitive as conventional powered vehicles. As the traction battery states the largest cost driver, lowering its price is a crucial objective. In addition to improvements in product and production processes a non-negligible, but widely underestimated cost driver of production can be found in logistics, since the production technology is not continuous yet and neither are the logistics systems. This paper presents an approach to evaluate cost factors on different designs of load carrier systems. Due to numerous interdependencies, the combination of costs factors for a particular scenario is not transparent. This is effecting actions for cost reduction negatively, but still cost reduction is one of the major goals for simultaneous engineering processes. Therefore a concurrent and phase appropriate cost valuation method is necessary to serve cost transparency. In this paper the four phases of this cost valuation method are defined and explained, which based upon a new approach integrating the logistics development process in to the integrated product and process development.

Keywords: research and development, technology and innovation, lithium-ion-battery production, load carrier development process, cost valuation method

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Authors: Qian Wang, Haibo Gu

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To drive practical interpretations and applications of various policies in building the transnational education joint-ventures, middle managers learn to navigate through uncertainties and ambiguities. However, the current literature views very little about those middle managers’ experiences, perceptions, and practices. This paper takes the empirical approach and aims to uncover the middle managers’ experiences by conducting interviews, campus visits, and document analysis. Following the qualitative research method approach, the researchers gathered information from a mixture of fourteen foreign and Chinese managers. Their perceptions of the China-foreign cooperation in higher education and their perceived roles have offered important, valuable insights to this group of people’s attitudes and management performances. The diverse cultural and demographic backgrounds contributed to the significance of the study. There are four key findings. One, middle managers’ immediate micro-contexts and individual attitudes are the top two influential factors in managers’ performances. Two, the foreign middle managers showed a stronger sense of self-identity in risk-taking. Three, the Chinese middle managers preferred to see difficulties as part of their assigned responsibilities. Four, middle managers in independent universities demonstrated a stronger sense of belonging and fewer frustrations than middle managers in secondary institutes. The researchers propose that training for managers in a transnational educational setting should consider these discoveries when select fitting topics and content. In particular, middle managers should be better prepared to anticipate their everyday jobs in the micro-environment; hence, information concerning sponsor organizations’ working culture is as essential as knowing the national and local regulations, and socio-culture. Different case studies can help the managers to recognize and celebrate the diversity in transnational education. Situational stories can help them to become aware of the diverse and wide range of work contexts so that they will not feel to be left alone when facing challenges without relevant previous experience or training. Though this research is a case study based in the Chinese transnational higher education setting, the implications could be relevant and comparable to other transnational higher education situations and help to continue expanding the potential applications in this field.

Keywords: educational management, middle manager performance, transnational higher education

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Authors: Itay Harlap

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Over the past decade, LGBT figures have become increasingly visible on Israeli television in its various channels and genres. In recent years, however, the representation of gays on Israeli television has undergone an interesting shift, whereby many television texts feature gay people as fathers. These texts, mostly news items and documentaries, usually present gay parenthood as a positive phenomenon. The question in paper is whether LGBT parenting (in reality and as representation) fated to be part of the homonormativity that characterizes the LGBT community in Israel, or can it be an alternative to the hegemonic discourse? This paper embraces a dialectical position and explores the tension between mainstream and radical, or homonormativity and queer politics in the specific Israeli Jewish context through a textual and discursive reading of a selection of television programs that revolve principally around gay parenting in Israel. The first part of this lecture addresses the cultural and social context that generated these representations, dealing with three key Israeli areas: The fertility cult, the evolution of the LGBT community, and the evolution of local television. The second part offers a queer reading of these ‘positive’ representations (mainly in special reports on the news and programs labeled as ‘documentaries’ by broadcasters) and highlight the possible price of the ‘bear hug’ given by Israeli media to gay parents. The last part focuses on a single case study, the TV serial drama Ima Veabaz, and suggests that this drama exposes the performative aspect of parenting and the connection between ethnicity and fertility, and offers an alternative to normative displays of gay parenting.

Keywords: fatherhood, heteronormativity, Israel, queer theory, television

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Authors: Amel Graa, Maachou Dani El Kebir

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This paper investigates the impulse buying behavior of Algerian consumer. In that purpose, we try to better understand processes underlying impulsive buying experiences by examining the theoretical framework and using Mehrabian and Russell’s structure. A model is then proposed and tested on a sample of 1500 shoppers who were recruited among customers of food stores. This model aims to explain the role of some situational variables, personal variables, variables linked to the product characteristics and emotional states on the impulse buying behavior. Following to this empirical study, it was possible to conclude that Algerian consumer has a weak tendency toward impulse buying of food products. The results indicate that seller guidance has a significant impact on the impulse buying, whereas the price of the product was negatively related. According to the results; perception of crowding was associated with scarcity and it was positively linked with impulse buying behavior. This study can help marketers determine the in-store factors that impact purely spontaneous purchases of items that otherwise would not end up in the shopping cart. Our research findings offer important information for benchmarking managerial expectations with regard to product selection and merchandising decisions. As futures perspectives, we propose new research areas related to the impulse buying behavior such as studying different types of stores (for example supermarket), or other types of product (clothing), or studying consumption of food products in religious month of Muslims (Ramadan).

Keywords: impulse buying, situational variables, personal variables, emotional states, PAD model of Merhabian and Russell, Algerian consumer

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Authors: Christopher Benedikt Jakob

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Human beings are intrigued by luxury watches for decades. It is fascinating that customers pay an enormous amount of money for specific wristwatch models. It is fascinating that customers of the luxury watch industry accept a yearly price increase. This behavior increases their desirability even more. Luxury watches are perceived as status symbols, but they are additionally accepted as a currency without the disadvantage of currency fluctuations. It is obvious that the symbolic value is more important as the functional value with reference to the buying-reasons as regards luxury watches. Nowadays human beings do not need a wristwatch to read the time. Tablets, notebooks, smartphones, the watch in the car and watches on public places are used to inform people about the current time. This is one of the reasons why there is a trend that people do not wear wristwatches anymore. Due to these facts, this study has the intention to give answers to the question why people invest an enormous amount of money on the consumption of luxury watches and why those watches are seen as a status symbol. The study examines why the luxury watch industry records significant growth rates. The self-expression model is used as an appropriate methodology to find reasons why human beings purchase specific luxury watches. This evaluative approach further discusses if human beings are aware of their current self and their ideal self and how they express them. Furthermore, the research critically evaluates the people’s social self and their ideal social self. One of the goals is to identify if customers know why they like specific luxury watches and dislike others although they have the same quality and cost comparable prices.

Keywords: luxury watch, brand awareness, buying-behaviour, consumer, self-expression

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Authors: Natalia Kalinowska

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The adoption of the General Data Protection Regulation, (GDPR) finished the four-year work of the European Commission in this area in the European Union. Considering far-reaching changes, which will be applied by GDPR, the European legislator envisaged two-year transitional period. Member states and companies have to prepare for a new regulation until 25 of May 2018. The idea, which becomes a new look at an attitude to data protection in the European Union is risk-based approach. So far, as a result of implementation of Directive 95/46/WE, in many European countries (including Poland) there have been adopted very particular regulations, specifying technical and organisational security measures e.g. Polish implementing rules indicate even how long password should be. According to the new approach from May 2018, controllers and processors will be obliged to apply security measures adequate to level of risk associated with specific data processing. The risk in GDPR should be interpreted as the likelihood of a breach of the rights and freedoms of the data subject. According to Recital 76, the likelihood and severity of the risk to the rights and freedoms of the data subject should be determined by reference to the nature, scope, context and purposes of the processing. GDPR does not indicate security measures which should be applied – in recitals there are only examples such as anonymization or encryption. It depends on a controller’s decision what type of security measures controller considered as sufficient and he will be responsible if these measures are not sufficient or if his identification of risk level is incorrect. Data protection regulation indicates few levels of risk. Recital 76 indicates risk and high risk, but some lawyers think, that there is one more category – low risk/now risk. Low risk/now risk data processing is a situation when it is unlikely to result in a risk to the rights and freedoms of natural persons. GDPR mentions types of data processing when a controller does not have to evaluate level of risk because it has been classified as „high risk” processing e.g. processing on a large scale of special categories of data, processing with using new technologies. The methodology will include analysis of legal regulations e.g. GDPR, the Polish Act on the Protection of personal data. Moreover: ICO Guidelines and articles concerning risk based approach in GDPR. The main conclusion is that an appropriate risk assessment is a key to keeping data safe and avoiding financial penalties. On the one hand, this approach seems to be more equitable, not only for controllers or processors but also for data subjects, but on the other hand, it increases controllers’ uncertainties in the assessment which could have a direct impact on incorrect data protection and potential responsibility for infringement of regulation.

Keywords: general data protection regulation, personal data protection, privacy protection, risk based approach

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Authors: N. C. Shahi, Anupama Singh, E. Kate

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Drying is practiced to enhance the storage life, to minimize losses during storage, and to reduce transportation costs of agricultural products. Drying processes range from open sun drying to industrial drying. In most of the developing countries, use of fossil fuels for drying of agricultural products has not been practically feasible due to unaffordable costs to majority of the farmers. On the other hand, traditional open sun drying practiced on a large scale in the rural areas of the developing countries suffers from high product losses due to inadequate drying, fungal growth, encroachment of insects, birds and rodents, etc. To overcome these problems a middle technology dryer having low cost need to be developed for farmers. In case of mechanical dryers, the heated air is the main driving force for removal of moisture. The air is heated either electrically or by burning wood, coal, natural gas etc. using heaters. But, all these common sources have finite supplies. The lifetime is estimated to range from 15 years for a natural gas to nearly 250 years for coal. So, mankind must turn towards its safe and reliable utilization and may have undesirable side effects. The mechanical drying involves higher cost of drying and open sun drying deteriorates the quality. The solar tunnel dryer is one of promising option for drying various agricultural and agro-industrial products on large scale. The advantage of Solar tunnel dryer is its relatively cheaper cost of construction and operation. Although many solar dryers have been developed, still there is a scope of modification in them. Therefore, an attempt was made to develop Solar tunnel dryer and test its performance using highly perishable commodity i.e. leafy vegetables (spinach). The effect of air velocity, loading density and shade net on performance parameters namely, collector efficiency, drying efficiency, overall efficiency of dryer and specific heat energy consumption were also studied. Thus, the need for an intermediate level technology was realized and an effort was made to develop a small scale Solar Tunnel Dryer . A dryer consisted of base frame, semi cylindrical drying chamber, solar collector and absorber, air distribution system with chimney and auxiliary heating system, and wheels for its mobility were the main functional components. Drying of fenugreek was carried out to analyze the performance of the dryer. The Solar Tunnel Dryer temperature was maintained using the auxiliary heating system. The ambient temperature was in the range of 12-33oC. The relative humidity was found inside and outside the Solar Tunnel Dryer in the range of 21-75% and 35-79%, respectively. The solar radiation was recorded in the range of 350-780W/m2 during the experimental period. Studies revealed that total drying time was in range of 230 to 420 min. The drying time in Solar Tunnel Dryer was considerably reduced by 67% as compared to sun drying. The collector efficiency, drying efficiency, overall efficiency and specific heat consumption were determined and were found to be in the range of 50.06- 38.71%, 15.53-24.72%, 4.25 to 13.34% and 1897.54-3241.36 kJ/kg, respectively.

Keywords: overall efficiency, solar tunnel dryer, specific heat consumption, sun drying

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Authors: Ntloana Hlabishi Peter

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The availability of public transportation modes and qualitative infrastructure is a burning issue that affects urban sustainability. Public transportation is indispensable in providing adequate transportation means to people at an affordable price, and it promotes public transport reliance. Burgersfort town has a critical condition on the urban public transportation infrastructure which affects the bus and taxi public transport modes and the existing infrastructure. The municipality is regarded as one of the mining towns in Limpopo Province considering the availability of mining activities and proposal on establishment of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The study aim is to assess the efficacy of current public transportation infrastructure and to propose relevant recommendations that will unlock the possibility of future supportable public transportation systems. The Key Informant Interview (KII) was used to acquire data on the views from commuters and stakeholders involved. There KII incorporated three relevant questions in relation to services rendered in public transportation. Relevant literature relating to public transportation modes and infrastructure revealed the imperatives of public transportation infrastructure, and relevant legislation was reviewed concerning public transport infrastructure. The finding revealed poor conditions on the public transportation ranks and also inadequate parking space for public transportation modes. The study reveals that 100% of people interviewed were not satisfied with the condition of public transportation infrastructure and 100% are not satisfied with the services offered by public transportation sectors. The findings revealed that the municipality is the main player who can upgrade the existing conditions of public transportation. The study recommended that an intermodal transportation facility must be established to resolve the emerging challenges.

Keywords: public transportation, modes, infrastructure, urban sustainability

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Authors: Ifeoma Patricia Osamor, Ayotunde Qudus Saka, Godwin Omoregbee, Hikmat Oreoluwalomo Omolaja

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Persistent fall in the value of Nigeria's currency compared to other foreign currencies, constant fluctuations in the exchange rate, and an increase in the price of goods and services necessitated the examination of the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the economic performance of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. An ex-post facto research design was adopted. Manufacturing gross domestic product (MGDP) was proxied for performance; Naira/Dollar exchange rate (NDE), Naira/Pounds exchange rate (NPE), Foreign exchange supply (FES) were used for exchange rate fluctuations; and inflation rate (INF) was a control variable. Data were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin (2020) also World Development Indicators of the World Bank, while data collected were analysed using descriptive analysis, unit root, bounds cointegration test, and ARDL. Findings showed that changes in Naira/Dollar exchange rate (NDE) and Naira/Pound Sterling exchange rate negatively but significantly impact the economic performance of the manufacturing sector, while foreign exchange supply leads to an insignificant positive effect on the economic performance of the manufacturing. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuations negatively impact the performance of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria and, therefore, recommends that government should encourage export diversification through agriculture, agro-investment, and agro-allied industries that would boost export in order to improve the value of the Naira, thereby stabilizing the exchange rate.

Keywords: exchange rate, economic performance, gross domestic product, inflation rate, foreign exchange supply

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Authors: Francesco Berald, Yunhui Zhao

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The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices associated with monetary easing. We first set up a stylized general equilibrium model and show that although monetary easing decreases the mortgage payment burden, it would raise house prices and lower housing affordability for first-time homebuyers (through the initial housing wealth channel and the liquidity constraint channel that increases repeat buyers’ housing demand), and increase housing wealth inequality between first-time and repeat homebuyers. We then use the U.S. household-level data to quantify the effect of the house price change on housing affordability relative to that of the interest rate change. We find evidence of the pricing-out effect for all homebuyers; moreover, we find that the pricing-out effect is stronger for first-time homebuyers than for repeat homebuyers. The paper highlights the importance of accounting for general equilibrium effects and distributional implications of monetary policy while assessing housing affordability. It also calls for complementing monetary easing with well-targeted policy measures that can boost housing affordability, particularly for first-time and lower-income households. Such measures are also needed during aggressive monetary tightening, given that the fall in house prices may be insufficient or too slow to fully offset the immediate adverse impact of higher rates on housing affordability.

Keywords: pricing-out, U.S. housing market, housing affordability, distributional effects, monetary policy

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Authors: Suhrita Saha

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Barbie is a fashion doll manufactured by the American toy company Mattel Inc and it made debut at the American International Toy Fair in New York in 9 March 1959. From being a fashion doll to a symbol of fetishistic commodification, Barbie has come a long way. A Barbie doll is sold every three seconds across the world, which makes the billion dollar brand the world’s most popular doll for the girls. The 11.5 inch moulded plastic doll has a height of 5 feet 9 inches at 1/6 scale. Her vital statistics have been estimated at 36 inches (chest), 18 inches (waist) and 33 inches (hips). Her weight is permanently set at 110 pounds which would be 35 pounds underweight. Ruth Handler, the creator of Barbie wanted a doll that represented adulthood and allowed children to imagine themselves as teenagers or adults. While Barbie might have been intended to be independent, imaginative and innovative, the physical uniqueness does not confine the doll to the status of a play thing. It is a cultural icon but with far reaching critical implications. The doll is a commodity bearing more social value than practical use value. The way Barbie is produced represents industrialization and commodification of the process of symbolic production. And this symbolic production and consumption is a standardized planned one that produce stereotypical ‘pseudo-individuality’ and suppresses cultural alternatives. Children are being subject to and also arise as subjects in this consumer context. A very gendered, physiologically dissected sexually charged symbolism is imposed upon children (both male and female), childhood, their social worlds, identity, and relationship formation. Barbie is also very popular among Indian children. While the doll is essentially an imaginative representation of the West, it is internalized by the Indian sensibilities. Through observation and questionnaire-based interview within a sample population of adolescent children (primarily female, a few male) and parents (primarily mothers) in Kolkata, an Indian metropolis, the paper puts forth findings of sociological relevance. 1. Barbie creates, recreates, and accentuates already existing divides between the binaries like male- female, fat- thin, sexy- nonsexy, beauty- brain and more. 2. The Indian girl child in her associative process with Barbie wants to be like her and commodifies her own self. The male child also readily accepts this standardized commodification. Definition of beauty is thus based on prejudice and stereotype. 3. Not being able to become Barbie creates health issues both psychological and physiological varying from anorexia to obesity as well as personality disorder. 4. From being a plaything Barbie becomes the game maker. Barbie along with many other forms of simulation further creates a consumer culture and market for all kind of fitness related hyper enchantment and subsequent disillusionment. The construct becomes the reality and the real gets lost in the play world. The paper would thus argue that Barbie from being an innocuous doll transports itself into becoming social construct with long term and irreversible adverse impact.

Keywords: barbie, commodification, personality disorder, sterotype

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Authors: Omer Burak Iskender, Keck Voon Ling, Vincent Dubanchet, Luca Simonini

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This paper presents Guidance and Control (G&C) strategy to approach and synchronize with potentially rotating targets. The proposed strategy generates and tracks a safe trajectory for space servicing missions, including tasks like approaching, inspecting, and capturing. The main objective of this paper is to validate the G&C laws using a Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) setup with realistic rendezvous and docking equipment. Throughout this work, the assumption of full relative state feedback is relaxed by onboard sensors that bring realistic errors and delays and, while the proposed closed loop approach demonstrates the robustness to the above mentioned challenge. Moreover, G&C blocks are unified via the Model Predictive Control (MPC) paradigm, and the coupling between translational motion and rotational motion is addressed via dual quaternion based kinematic description. In this work, G&C is formulated as a convex optimization problem where constraints such as thruster limits and the output constraints are explicitly handled. Furthermore, the Monte-Carlo method is used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed method to the initial condition errors, the uncertainty of the target's motion and attitude, and actuator errors. A capture scenario is tested with the robotic test bench that has onboard sensors which estimate the position and orientation of a drifting satellite through camera imagery. Finally, the approach is compared with currently used robust H-infinity controllers and guidance profile provided by the industrial partner. The HIL experiments demonstrate that the proposed strategy is a potential candidate for future space servicing missions because 1) the algorithm is real-time implementable as convex programming offers deterministic convergence properties and guarantee finite time solution, 2) critical physical and output constraints are respected, 3) robustness to sensor errors and uncertainties in the system is proven, 4) couples translational motion with rotational motion.

Keywords: dual quaternion, model predictive control, real-time experimental test, rendezvous and docking, spacecraft autonomy, space servicing

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Authors: Byeongcheol Kang, Junyi Kim, Hyungsik Jung, Hyungjun Yang, Jaewoo An, Jonggeun Choe

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It is important to figure out reservoir properties for better production management. Due to the limited information, there are geological uncertainties on very heterogeneous or channel reservoir. One of the solutions is to generate multiple equi-probable realizations using geostatistical methods. However, some models have wrong properties, which need to be excluded for simulation efficiency and reliability. We propose a novel method of model selection scheme, based on distance-based clustering for reliable application of production optimization algorithm. Distance is defined as a degree of dissimilarity between the data. We calculate Hausdorff distance to classify the models based on their similarity. Hausdorff distance is useful for shape matching of the reservoir models. We use multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) to describe the models on two dimensional space and group them by K-means clustering. Rather than simulating all models, we choose one representative model from each cluster and find out the best model, which has the similar production rates with the true values. From the process, we can select good reservoir models near the best model with high confidence. We make 100 channel reservoir models using single normal equation simulation (SNESIM). Since oil and gas prefer to flow through the sand facies, it is critical to characterize pattern and connectivity of the channels in the reservoir. After calculating Hausdorff distances and projecting the models by MDS, we can see that the models assemble depending on their channel patterns. These channel distributions affect operation controls of each production well so that the model selection scheme improves management optimization process. We use one of useful global search algorithms, particle swarm optimization (PSO), for our production optimization. PSO is good to find global optimum of objective function, but it takes too much time due to its usage of many particles and iterations. In addition, if we use multiple reservoir models, the simulation time for PSO will be soared. By using the proposed method, we can select good and reliable models that already matches production data. Considering geological uncertainty of the reservoir, we can get well-optimized production controls for maximum net present value. The proposed method shows one of novel solutions to select good cases among the various probabilities. The model selection schemes can be applied to not only production optimization but also history matching or other ensemble-based methods for efficient simulations.

Keywords: distance-based clustering, geological uncertainty, particle swarm optimization (PSO), production optimization

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Authors: C. Nathanailides, S. Anastasiou, A. Dimitroglou, P. Logothetis, G. Kanlis

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In the present work we reviewed historical data of the Greek Marine aquaculture industry including adoption of new methods and technological innovation. The results indicate that the industry exhibited a rapid rise in production efficiency, employment and adoption of new technologies which reduced outbreaks of diseases, reduced production risk and the price of the farmed fish. The improvements of total quality practices and technological input on the Greek Aquaculture industry include improved survival, growth and body shape of farmed fish, which resulted from development of new aquaculture feeds and the genetic selection of the bloodstock. Also improvements in the quality of the final product were achieved via technological input in the methods and technology applied during harvesting, packaging, and transportation-preservation of farmed fish ensuring high quality of the product from the fish farm to the plate of the consumers. These parameters (health management, nutrition, genetics, harvesting and post-harvesting methods and technology) changed significantly over the last twenty years and the results of these improvements are reflected in the production efficiency of the Aquaculture industry and the quality of the final product. It is concluded that the Greek aquaculture industry exhibited a rapid growth, adoption of technologies and supply was stabilized after the global financial crisis, nevertheless, the development of the Greek aquaculture industry is currently limited by international trade sanctions, credit crunch, and increased taxation and not by limited technology or resources.

Keywords: innovation, aquaculture, total quality, management

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Authors: Kai Zhang, Xi Jiang

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Effect of fuel variabilities on premixed combustion of bio-syngas mixtures is of great importance in bio-syngas utilisation. The uncertainties of concentrations of fuel constituents such as H2, CO and CH4 may lead to unpredictable combustion performances, combustion instabilities and hot spots which may deteriorate and damage the combustion hardware. Numerical modelling and simulations can assist in understanding the behaviour of bio-syngas combustion with pre-defined species concentrations, while the evaluation of variabilities of concentrations is expensive. To be more specific, questions such as ‘what is the burning velocity of bio-syngas at specific equivalence ratio?’ have been answered either experimentally or numerically, while questions such as ‘what is the likelihood of burning velocity when precise concentrations of bio-syngas compositions are unknown, but the concentration ranges are pre-described?’ have not yet been answered. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods can be used to tackle such questions and assess the effects of fuel compositions. An efficient probabilistic UQ method based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) techniques is employed in this study. The method relies on representing random variables (combustion performances) with orthogonal polynomials such as Legendre or Gaussian polynomials. The constructed PCE via Galerkin Projection provides easy access to global sensitivities such as main, joint and total Sobol indices. In this study, impacts of fuel compositions on combustion (adiabatic flame temperature and laminar flame speed) of bio-syngas fuel mixtures are presented invoking this PCE technique at several equivalence ratios. High-pressure effects on bio-syngas combustion instability are obtained using detailed chemical mechanism - the San Diego Mechanism. Guidance on reducing combustion instability from upstream biomass gasification process is provided by quantifying the significant contributions of composition variations to variance of physicochemical properties of bio-syngas combustion. It was found that flame speed is very sensitive to hydrogen variability in bio-syngas, and reducing hydrogen uncertainty from upstream biomass gasification processes can greatly reduce bio-syngas combustion instability. Variation of methane concentration, although thought to be important, has limited impacts on laminar flame instabilities especially for lean combustion. Further studies on the UQ of percentage concentration of hydrogen in bio-syngas can be conducted to guide the safer use of bio-syngas.

Keywords: bio-syngas combustion, clean energy utilisation, fuel variability, PCE, targeted uncertainty reduction, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Wenhao Li, Shijun Guo

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Carbon fibre reinforced composites are progressively replacing metal structures in modern civil aircraft. This is because composite materials have large potential of weight saving compared with metal. However, the achievement to date of weight saving in composite structure is far less than the theoretical potential due to many uncertainties in structural integrity and safety concern. Unlike the conventional metallic structure, composite components are bonded together along the joints where structural integrity is a major concern. To ensure the safety, metal fasteners are used to reinforce the composite bonded joints. One of the solutions for a significant weight saving of composite structure is to develop an effective technology of on-board Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) System. By monitoring the real-life stress status of composite structures during service, the safety margin set in the structure design can be reduced with confidence. It provides a means of safeguard to minimize the need for programmed inspections and allow for maintenance to be need-driven, rather than usage-driven. The aim of this paper is to develop smart composite joint. The key technology is a multifunctional thermoplastic composite fastener (MTCF). The MTCF will replace some of the existing metallic fasteners in the most concerned locations distributed over the aircraft composite structures to reinforce the joints and form an on-board SHM network system. Each of the MTCFs will work as a unit of the AU and AE technology. The proposed MTCF technology has been patented and developed by Prof. Guo in Cranfield University, UK in the past a few years. The manufactured MTCF has been successfully employed in the composite SLJ (Single-Lap Joint). In terms of the structure integrity, the hybrid SLJ reinforced by MTCF achieves 19.1% improvement in the ultimate failure strength in comparison to the bonded SLJ. By increasing the diameter or rearranging the lay-up sequence of MTCF, the hybrid SLJ reinforced by MTCF is able to achieve the equivalent ultimate strength as that reinforced by titanium fastener. The predicted ultimate strength in simulation is in good agreement with the test results. In terms of the structural health monitoring, a signal from the MTCF was measured well before the load of mechanical failure. This signal provides a warning of initial crack in the joint which could not be detected by the strain gauge until the final failure.

Keywords: composite single-lap joint, crack propagation, multifunctional composite fastener, structural health monitoring

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Authors: A. Al Hinai, H. Jayasuriya, H. Kotagama

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Most Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries with oil-based economy like Oman are looking for other potential revenue generation options as the crude oil price is regularly fluctuating due to changing geopolitical environment. Oman has advantage of possessing world-heritage nature tourism hotspots around the country and the government is making investments and strategies to uplift the tourism industry following Oman Vision 2040 strategies. Oman’s agriculture is not significantly contributing to the economy, but possesses specific and diversified arid cropping systems. Oman has modern farms; nevertheless some of the agricultural production activities are done with cultural practices and styles that would be attractive to tourists. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potentials for promoting agritourism industry in Oman; recognize potential sites, commodities and activities, and predict potential revenue generation as a projection from that of the tourism sector. Moreover, the study enables to foresee possible auxiliary advantages of agritourism such as, empowerment of women and youth, enhancement in the value-addition industry for agricultural produce through technology transfer and capacity building, and producing export quality products. Agritourism could increase employability, empowerment of women and youth, improve value-addition industry and export-oriented agribusiness. These efforts including provision of necessary technology-transfer and capacity-building should be rendered by the collaboration of academic institutions, relevant ministries and other public and private sector stakeholders.

Keywords: agritourism, nature-based tourism, potentials, revenue generation, value addition

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Authors: Luís Miguel Cabeça Marques, Alberto Manuel Martinho Vale, José Pedro Miragaia Trancoso Vaz, Ana Sofia Baptista Fernandes, Rui Alexandre de Barros Coito, Tiago Miguel Prates da Costa

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The detection and localization of hidden radioactive sources are of significant importance in countering the illicit traffic of Special Nuclear Materials and other radioactive sources and materials. Radiation portal monitors are commonly used at airports, seaports, and international land borders for inspecting cargo and vehicles. However, these equipment can be expensive and are not available at all checkpoints. Consequently, the localization of SNM and other radioactive sources often relies on handheld equipment, which can be time-consuming. The current study presents the advantages of real-time analysis of gamma-ray count rate data from a mobile radiation detection system based on simulated data and field tests. The incorporation of profit functions and decision criteria to optimize the detection system's path significantly enhances the radiation field information and reduces survey time during cargo inspection. For source position estimation, a maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is employed, and confidence intervals are derived using the Fisher information. The study also explores the impact of uncertainties, baselines, and thresholds on the performance of the profit function. The proposed detection system, utilizing a plastic scintillator with silicon photomultiplier sensors, boasts several benefits, including cost-effectiveness, high geometric efficiency, compactness, and lightweight design. This versatility allows for seamless integration into any mobile platform, be it air, land, maritime, or hybrid, and it can also serve as a handheld device. Furthermore, integration of the detection system into drones, particularly multirotors, and its affordability enable the automation of source search and substantial reduction in survey time, particularly when deploying a fleet of drones. While the primary focus is on inspecting maritime container cargo, the methodologies explored in this research can be applied to the inspection of other infrastructures, such as nuclear facilities or vehicles.

Keywords: plastic scintillators, profit functions, path planning, gamma-ray detection, source localization, mobile radiation detection system, security scenario

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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Construction industry, as one of the main contributor in depletion of natural resources, influences climate change. This paper discusses incremental and evolutionary development of the proposed models for optimization of a life-cycle analysis to explicit strategy for evaluation systems. The main categories are virtually irresistible for introducing uncertainties, uptake composite structure model (CSM) as environmental management systems (EMSs) in a practice science of evaluation small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The model simplified complex systems to reflect nature systems’ input, output and outcomes mode influence “framework measures” and give a maximum likelihood estimation of how elements are simulated over the composite structure. The traditional knowledge of modeling is based on physical dynamic and static patterns regarding parameters influence environment. It unified methods to demonstrate how construction systems ecology interrelated from management prospective in procedure reflects the effect of the effects of engineering systems to ecology as ultimately unified technologies in extensive range beyond constructions impact so as, - energy systems. Sustainability broadens socioeconomic parameters to practice science that meets recovery performance, engineering reflects the generic control of protective systems. When the environmental model employed properly, management decision process in governments or corporations could address policy for accomplishment strategic plans precisely. The management and engineering limitation focuses on autocatalytic control as a close cellular system to naturally balance anthropogenic insertions or aggregation structure systems to pound equilibrium as steady stable conditions. Thereby, construction systems ecology incorporates engineering and management scheme, as a midpoint stage between biotic and abiotic components to predict constructions impact. The later outcomes’ theory of environmental obligation suggests either a procedures of method or technique that is achieved in sustainability impact of construction system ecology (SICSE), as a relative mitigation measure of deviation control, ultimately.

Keywords: sustainability, environmental impact assessment, environemtal management, construction ecology

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Authors: Dibya Jivan Pati, Kazuhisa Iki, Riken Homma

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Unlike other metro cities of India, Bhubaneswar–the capital city of Odisha, is expected to reach 1-million-mark population by now. The demands of dwelling unit requirement mostly among urban poor belonging to Economically Weaker section (EWS) and Low Income groups (LIG) is becoming a challenge due to high housing cost and rents. As a matter of fact, it’s also noted that, with increase in population, the solid waste generation also increases subsequently affecting the environment due to inefficiency in collection of waste by local government bodies. Methods of utilizing Solid Waste - especially in form of Plastic bottles, Glass bottles and Metal cans (PGM) are now widely used as an alternative material for construction of low-cost building by Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) in developing countries like India to help the urban poor afford a shelter. The application of disposed plastic bottle used in construction of single dwelling significantly reduces the overall cost of construction to as much as 14% compared to traditional construction material. Therefore, considering its cost-benefit result, it’s possible to provide housing to EWS and LIGs at an affordable price. In this paper, we estimated the quantity of plastic bottles generated in Bhubaneswar which further helped to estimate the possible number of single dwelling unit that can be constructed on yearly basis so as to refrain from further housing shortage. The estimation results will be practically used for planning and managing low-cost housing business by local government and NGOs.

Keywords: construction, dwelling unit, plastic bottle, solid waste generation, groups

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Authors: Jun-Ki Choi

Abstract:

The usage of valuable resources and the potential for waste generation at the end of the life cycle of photovoltaic (PV) technologies necessitate a proactive planning for a PV recycling infrastructure. To ensure the sustainability of PV in large scales of deployment, it is vital to develop and institute low-cost recycling technologies and infrastructure for the emerging PV industry in parallel with the rapid commercialization of these new technologies. There are various issues involved in the economics of PV recycling and this research examine those at macro and micro levels, developing a holistic interpretation of the economic viability of the PV recycling systems. This study developed mathematical models to analyze the profitability of recycling technologies and to guide tactical decisions for allocating optimal location of PV take-back centers (PVTBC), necessary for the collection of end of life products. The economic decision is usually based on the level of the marginal capital cost of each PVTBC, cost of reverse logistics, distance traveled, and the amount of PV waste collected from various locations. Results illustrated that the reverse logistics costs comprise a major portion of the cost of PVTBC; PV recycling centers can be constructed in the optimally selected locations to minimize the total reverse logistics cost for transporting the PV wastes from various collection facilities to the recycling center. In the micro- process level, automated recycling processes should be developed to handle the large amount of growing PV wastes economically. The market price of the reclaimed materials are important factors for deciding the profitability of the recycling process and this illustrates the importance of the recovering the glass and expensive metals from PV modules.

Keywords: photovoltaic, recycling, mathematical models, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Edward Chamisa, Colin C. Smith, Hamutyinei H. Pamburai, Abdul C. Abdulla

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South Africa (SA) adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for listed firms effective 1 January 2005. However, it was not until 2011 that substantial financial reporting enforcement changes were introduced, which were meant to ensure compliance with IFRS. This innovative setting allows us to examine the value relevance of accounting amounts during the (1) pre-IFRS adoption period (2002-2004); (2) post-IFRS adoption, but pre-enforcement changes period (2006-2010); and (3) post-enforcement changes period (2011-2012). The results show that accounting amounts were most value relevant in the post-enforcement changes period (R2, 75.5%) compared to both the pre-IFRS adoption period (adjusted R2 is 24.3%) and the period after IFRS adoption but before enforcement changes (adjusted R2 is 37.5%). Also, during the 2008 financial crisis, the equity book value per share was significantly value relevant (at 1%) but not earnings per share, whereas before the crisis, the opposite was true. We make two important contributions to the literature. First, we identify SA as an innovative setting that allows researchers to examine separately the effects of IFRS adoption and enforcement changes on capital markets and accounting quality. This is a departure from prior studies that are dominated by the European Union setting, where IFRS adoption occurred contemporaneously with enforcement and other regulatory changes. Second, we provide preliminary findings which suggest that while the adoption of IFRS seems to have improved the financial reporting quality of accounting amounts of SA listed firms, its impact appears to be limited unless combined with effective enforcement.

Keywords: international financial reporting standards (ifrs), ifrs adoption, financial reporting enforcement, value relevance, price model, equity book value, earnings per share

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Authors: Panasbodee Thachaopas, Duangdorm Gamnerdsap, Waraporn Inthip, Arissara Pungpa

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LDD’s IM Farm or Land Development Department’s Integrated Management Farm is the agricultural simulation application developed by Land Development Department relies on actual data in simulation game to grow 12 cash crops which are rice, corn, cassava, sugarcane, soybean, rubber tree, oil palm, pineapple, longan, rambutan, durian, and mangosteen. Launching in simulation game, players could select preferable areas for cropping from base map or Orthophoto map scale 1:4,000. Farm management is simulated from field preparation to harvesting. The system uses soil group, and present land use database to facilitate player to know whether what kind of crop is suitable to grow in each soil groups and integrate LDD’s data with other agencies which are soil types, soil properties, soil problems, climate, cultivation cost, fertilizer use, fertilizer price, socio-economic data, plant diseases, weed, pest, interest rate for taking on loan from Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), labor cost, market prices. These mentioned data affect the cost and yield differently to each crop. After completing, the player will know the yield, income and expense, profit/loss. The player could change to other crops that are more suitable to soil groups for optimal yields and profits.

Keywords: agricultural simulation, smart farmer, web application, factors of agricultural production

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Mustarakh Gelfi, Tiedo Vellinga, Poonam Taneja, Delon Hamonangan

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The development of New Priok/Kalibaru as an expansion terminal of the old port has been being done by IPC (Indonesia Port Cooperation) together with the subsidiary company, Port Developer (PT Pengembangan Pelabuhan Indonesia). As stated in the master plan, from 2 phases that had been proposed, phase I has shown its form and even Container Terminal I has been operated in 2016. It was planned principally, the development will be divided into Phase I (2013-2018) consist of 3 container terminals and 2 product terminals and Phase II (2018-2023) consist of 4 container terminals. In fact, the master plan has to be changed due to some major uncertainties which were escaped in prediction. This study is focused on the design scenario of phase II (2035- onwards) to deal with future uncertainty. The outcome is the robust design of phase II of the Kalibaru Terminal taking into account the future changes. Flexibility has to be a major goal in such a large infrastructure project like New Priok in order to deal and manage future uncertainty. The phasing of project needs to be adapted and re-look frequently before being irrelevant to future challenges. One of the frameworks that have been developed by an expert in port planning is Adaptive Port Planning (APP) with scenario-based planning. The idea behind APP framework is the adaptation that might be needed at any moment as an answer to a challenge. It is a continuous procedure that basically aims to increase the lifespan of waterborne transport infrastructure by increasing flexibility in the planning, contracting and design phases. Other methods used in this study are brainstorming with the port authority, desk study, interview and site visit to the real project. The result of the study is expected to be the insight for the port authority of Tanjung Priok over the future look and how it will impact the design of the port. There will be guidelines to do the design in an uncertain environment as well. Solutions of flexibility can be divided into: 1 - Physical solutions, all the items related hard infrastructure in the projects. The common things in this type of solution are using modularity, standardization, multi-functional, shorter and longer design lifetime, reusability, etc. 2 - Non-physical solutions, usually related to the planning processes, decision making and management of the projects. To conclude, APP framework seems quite robust to deal with the problem of designing phase II of New Priok Project for such a long period.

Keywords: Indonesia port, port's design, port planning, scenario-based planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 217