Search results for: analytical modelling

Authors: Lan Yang, Kathryn Cormican, Ming Yu

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ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288: 2015, Systems and Software Engineering - System Life Cycle Processes is an international standard that provides generic top-level process descriptions to support systems engineering (SE). However, the processes defined in the standard needs improvement to lift integrity and consistency. The goal of this research is to explore the way by building an ontology model for the SE standard to manage the knowledge of SE. The ontology model gives a whole picture of the SE knowledge domain by building connections between SE concepts. Moreover, it creates a hierarchical classification of the concepts to fulfil different requirements of displaying and analysing SE knowledge.

Keywords: knowledge management, model-based systems engineering, ontology modelling, systems engineering ontology

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Authors: Hari Govindmishra, Sarabjot Singh

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The study offers an approach to understand different determinants of shopping behaviour, and the effect of ethnicity on shopping behaviour. The results reveal that the Indian culture is composite in nature and because of which there is no difference between different ethnic groups in their preference for three shopping behaviour determinants, viz., status consciousness, need for touch and companion opinion. The research model investigates the relevant relationship between these constructs by using a structural equation modelling approach, which reveals that status consciousness, need for touch and companion opinion are significant determinants of shopping behaviour. Consequently, the shopping behaviour managers have to understand the collective nature of Indian ethnic consumers in their shopping behaviour.

Keywords: ethnic groups, status consciousness, companion opinion, need for touch, shopping behaviour

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Authors: Mohamed A. Abou-Shouk, Mahamoud M. Hewedi

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This study extends technology acceptance model (TAM) to investigate the antecedents and consequences of social media adoption by tourists and travel agents. It compares their perceptions on social media adoption and its consequences. Online survey was addressed to tourists and travel agents for data collection purposes. Structural equation modelling was employed for analysis purposes. The findings revealed that the majority of tourists and travel agents involved in the study believe in the usefulness of social media adoption for travel planning and marketing purposes. They agree that adopting social media could change the attitude of tourists towards specific destination or attraction and influence their purchasing decisions. This study contributes to knowledge by extending TAM and provides some managerial implication to marketers.

Keywords: TAM, social media, travel and tourism, travel agents

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Authors: Tudor Deaconescu, Andrea Deaconescu

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Deployment of pneumatic muscles in various industrial applications is still in its early days, considering the relative newness of these components. The field of robotics holds particular future potential for pneumatic muscles, especially in view of their specific behaviour known as compliance. The paper presents and discusses an innovative constructive solution for a gripper system mountable on an industrial robot, based on actuation by a linear pneumatic muscle and transmission of motion by gear and rack mechanism. The structural, operational and constructive models of the new gripper are presented, along with some of the experimental results obtained subsequently to the testing of a prototype. Further presented are two control variants of the gripper system, one by means of a 3/2-way fast-switching solenoid valve, the other by means of a proportional pressure regulator. Advantages and disadvantages are discussed for both variants.

Keywords: gripper system, pneumatic muscle, structural modelling, robotics

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Authors: N. M. Amin, W. N. A. W. Sulaiman

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The effectiveness of the seismic response between 3D solid elements model and simplified beam elements model has been investigated. At present, the studies of the numerical modelling using 3D solid element are minimal due to numerical software constraint. The finite element analysis using 3D solid element was chosen to study displacement response of laminated rubber bearing (LRB) during high intensity Kobe earthquake. In this research a simply supported bridge (single span), fixed at support was analysed by using transient analysis subjected to real time history loading of Kobe earthquake.

Keywords: laminated rubber bearing, solid element, simplified beam element, transient analysis

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Authors: Ivo Zution Goncalves, Christopher M. U. Neale, Hiran Medeiros, Everardo Mantovani, Natalia Souza

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Multispectral and thermal infrared imagery from satellite sensors coupled with climate and soil datasets were used to estimate evapotranspiration and biomass in center pivots planted to maize in Brazil during the 2016 season. The hybrid remote sensing based model named Spatial EvapoTranspiration Modelling Interface (SETMI) was applied using multispectral and thermal infrared imagery from the Landsat Thematic Mapper instrument. Field data collected by the IRRIGER center pivot management company included daily weather information such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity for estimating reference evapotranspiration. In addition, soil water content data were obtained every 0.20 m in the soil profile down to 0.60 m depth throughout the season. Early season soil samples were used to obtain water-holding capacity, wilting point, saturated hydraulic conductivity, initial volumetric soil water content, layer thickness, and saturated volumetric water content. Crop canopy development parameters and irrigation application depths were also inputs of the model. The modeling approach is based on the reflectance-based crop coefficient approach contained within the SETMI hybrid ET model using relationships developed in Nebraska. The model was applied to several fields located in Minas Gerais State in Brazil with approximate latitude: -16.630434 and longitude: -47.192876. The model provides estimates of real crop evapotranspiration (ET), crop irrigation requirements and all soil water balance outputs, including biomass estimation using multi-temporal satellite image inputs. An interpolation scheme based on the growing degree-day concept was used to model the periods between satellite inputs, filling the gaps between image dates and obtaining daily data. Actual and accumulated ET, accumulated cold temperature and water stress and crop water requirements estimated by the model were compared with data measured at the experimental fields. Results indicate that the SETMI modeling approach using data assimilation, showed reliable daily ET and crop water requirements for maize, interpolated between remote sensing observations, confirming the applicability of the SETMI model using new relationships developed in Nebraska for estimating mainly ET and water requirements in Brazil under tropical conditions.

Keywords: basal crop coefficient, irrigation, remote sensing, SETMI

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Authors: C. Patrascioiu

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The paper describes the modeling and simulation of the heat pumps domain processes. The main objective of the study is the use of the heat pump in propene–propane distillation processes. The modeling and simulation instrument is the Unisim^® Design simulator. The paper is structured in three parts: An overview of the compressing gases, the modeling and simulation of the freezing systems, and the modeling and simulation of the heat pumps. For each of these systems, there are presented the Unisim^® Design simulation diagrams, the input–output system structure and the numerical results. Future studies will consider modeling and simulation of the propene–propane distillation process with heat pump.

Keywords: distillation, heat pump, simulation, unisim design

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Authors: Hosein Rahmati

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The Fatimid government was one of the powerful Shiite governments that was formed in 297 AH in the Islamic Maghreb based on Ismaili ideas and played an important role in promoting the culture and civilization of the Islamic world. Ismaili is one of the Shiite sects that has its own beliefs and teachings. This research seeks to find out which of the Ismaili beliefs and teachings were considered by the Fatimid political government and which the Fatimid government paid serious attention to highlighting. The present study, based on library sources and descriptive-analytical method, has concluded that the Ismaili doctrinal foundations, especially the doctrine of Imamate, are essential elements in the formation and continuation of the Fatimid rule. Their goals were approaching.

Keywords: Fatimid rule, The Ismaili, The Islamic Maghreb, Imamate

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Authors: I. Baddari, A. Riahla, M. Mezghich

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Today in the literature, we discover a lot of routing algorithms which some have been the subject of normalization. Two great classes Routing algorithms are defined, the first is the class reactive algorithms and the second that of algorithms proactive. The aim of this work is to make a comparative study between some routing algorithms. Two comparisons are considered. The first will focus on the protocols of the same class and second class on algorithms of different classes (one reactive and the other proactive). Since they are not based on analytical models, the exact evaluation of some aspects of these protocols is challenging. Simulations have to be done in order to study their performances. Our simulation is performed in NS2 (Network Simulator 2). It identified a classification of the different routing algorithms studied in a metrics such as loss of message, the time transmission, mobility, etc.

Keywords: ad-hoc network routing protocol, simulation, NS2, delay, packet loss, wideband, mobility

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Authors: Ezrah Kipkirui Tonui, George Otieno Orwa

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A survey of 138 farmers was conducted in Rift valley, Kenya, in November and December 2013 in three counties (Uasin-gishu, Elgeyo-marakwet, and Tranzoia) to determine public knowledge and attitude towards genetically modified (GM) maize. Above two third (70%) of the respondents had knowledge of GM maize, mostly those educated and male. Female was found to be having low knowledge on GM maize. Public acknowledged the technology’s potential positive impacts, with more than 90% willing to adopt and more than 98% willing to buy GM seedlings at any given price. A small percentage less than 3% were of a negative opinion about willing to buy and adopt GM seeds. We conclude that GM technology has a role to play in food security in Kenya. However, the public needs more information about the technology, which can be provided through established sources of information and training. Finally, public knowledge and attitude on GM maize should be studied on a regular basis, and the survey population broadened to 47 counties.

Keywords: public, knowledge, attitudes, GM maize, Kenya

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Authors: M. Wigwe, J. G Akpa, E. N Wami

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Mathematical models of the absorber of a glycol dehydration facility was developed using the principles of conservation of mass and energy. Models which predict variation of the water content of gas in mole fraction, variation of gas and liquid temperatures across the parking height were developed. These models contain contributions from bulk and diffusion flows. The effect of diffusion on the process occurring in the absorber was studied in this work. The models were validated using the initial conditions in the plant data from Company W TEG unit in Nigeria. The results obtained showed that the effect of diffusion was noticed between z=0 and z=0.004 m. A deviation from plant data of 0% was observed for the gas water content at a residence time of 20 seconds, at z=0.004 m. Similarly, deviations of 1.584% and 2.844% were observed for the gas and TEG temperatures.

Keywords: separations, absorption, simulation, dehydration, water content, triethylene glycol

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Authors: Belhaj Mohamed, M. Saidi, N. Boucherab, N. Ouertani, I. Bouazizi, M. Ben Jrad

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Natural hydrocarbon seepage has helped petroleum exploration as a direct indicator of gas and/or oil subsurface accumulations. Surface macro-seeps are generally an indication of a fault in an active Petroleum Seepage System belonging to a Total Petroleum System. This paper describes a case study in which multiple analytical techniques were used to identify and characterize trace petroleum-related hydrocarbons and other volatile organic compounds in groundwater samples collected from Sousse aquifer (Central Tunisia). The analytical techniques used for analyses of water samples included gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), capillary GC with flame-ionization detection, Compund Specific Isotope Analysis, Rock Eval Pyrolysis. The objective of the study was to confirm the presence of gasoline and other petroleum products or other volatile organic pollutants in those samples in order to assess the respective implication of each of the potentially responsible parties to the contamination of the aquifer. In addition, the degree of contamination at different depths in the aquifer was also of interest. The oil and gas seeps have been investigated using biomarker and stable carbon isotope analyses to perform oil-oil and oil-source rock correlations. The seepage gases are characterized by high CH4 content, very low δ13CCH4 values (-71,9 ‰) and high C1/C1–5 ratios (0.95–1.0), light deuterium–hydrogen isotope ratios (-198 ‰) and light δ13CC2 and δ13CCO2 values (-23,8‰ and-23,8‰ respectively) indicating a thermogenic origin with the contribution of the biogenic gas. An organic geochemistry study was carried out on the more ten oil seep samples. This study includes light hydrocarbon and biomarkers analyses (hopanes, steranes, n-alkanes, acyclic isoprenoids, and aromatic steroids) using GC and GC-MS. The studied samples show at least two distinct families, suggesting two different types of crude oil origins: the first oil seeps appears to be highly mature, showing evidence of chemical and/or biological degradation and was derived from a clay-rich source rock deposited in suboxic conditions. It has been sourced mainly by the lower Fahdene (Albian) source rocks. The second oil seeps was derived from a carbonate-rich source rock deposited in anoxic conditions, well correlated with the Bahloul (Cenomanian-Turonian) source rock.

Keywords: biomarkers, oil and gas seeps, organic geochemistry, source rock

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Authors: Tizi Hayet, Berrama Tarek, Bounif Nadia

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Phenol and its derivatives are organic compounds utilized in the chemical industry. They are introduced into the environment by accidental spills and illegal release of industrial and municipal wastewater. Phenols are organic intermediaries that considered as potential pollutants. Adsorption is one of the purification and separation techniques used in this area. Algeria produces annually 131000 tones of fig; therefore, a large amount of fig leaves is generated, and the conversion of this waste into adsorbent allows the valorization of agricultural residue. The main purpose of this present work is to describe an application of the statistical method for modeling and optimization of the conditions of the phenol (Ph) adsorption from agricultural by-product locally available (fig leaves). The best experimental performance of Ph elimination on the adsorbent was obtained with: Adsorbent concentration (X2) = 0.2 g L-1; Initial concentration (X3) = 150 mg L-1; Speed agitation (X1) = 300 rpm.

Keywords: low-cost adsorbents, fig leaves, full factorial design, phenol, biosorption

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Authors: Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas, Gonzalo Leon

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A price competition algorithm for ABMs based on game theory principles is proposed to deal with the simulation of theoretical market models. The algorithm is applied to the classical Hotelling’s model and to a two-sided market model to show it leads to the optimal behavior predicted by theoretical models. However, when theoretical models fail to predict the equilibrium, the algorithm is capable of reaching a feasible outcome. Results highlight that the algorithm can be implemented in other simulation models to guarantee rational users and endogenous optimal behaviors. Also, it can be applied as a tool of verification given that is theoretically based.

Keywords: agent-based models, algorithmic game theory, multi-sided markets, price optimization

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Authors: Dewi Selvia Fardhyanti, Astrilia Damayanti

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Coal tar is a liquid by-product of the process of coal gasification and carbonation, also in some industries such as steel, power plant, cement, and others. This liquid oil mixture contains various kinds of useful compounds such as aromatic compounds and phenolic compounds. These compounds are widely used as raw material for insecticides, dyes, medicines, perfumes, coloring matters, and many others. This research investigates thermodynamic modelling of liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) in solvent extraction of o-Cresol from the coal tar. The equilibria are modeled by ternary components of Wohl, Van Laar, and Three-Suffix Margules models. The values of the parameters involved are obtained by curve-fitting to the experimental data. Based on the comparison between calculated and experimental data, it turns out that among the three models studied, the Three-Suffix Margules seems to be the best to predict the LLE of o-Cresol for those system.

Keywords: coal tar, o-Cresol, Wohl, Van Laar, three-suffix margules

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Authors: Oulad Naoui Noureddine, Cherif ELAmine, Djehiche Abdelkader

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Water resources management includes several disciplines; the modeling of rainfall-runoff relationship is the most important discipline to prevent natural risks. There are several models to study rainfall-runoff relationship in watersheds. However, the majority of these models are not applicable in all basins of the world.  In this study, a new stochastic method called The Only Corresponding Competitor method (OCC) was used for the hydrological modeling of M’ZAB   Watershed (South East of Algeria) to adapt a few empirical models for any hydrological regime.  The results obtained allow to authorize a certain number of visions, in which it would be interesting to experiment with hydrological models that improve collectively or separately the data of a catchment by the OCC method.

Keywords: modelling, optimization, rainfall-runoff relationship, empirical model, OCC

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Authors: Mohsen Nouraei, Maryam Amouei

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Islamic studies are considered in both the Quran and Hadith. Hadith is defined as a set of reports that narrated the words and behaviors of infallible persons such as the holy Prophet (pbuh) or the Infallible Imams (as). The issue of biodiversity which is the one of the most important environmental aspects is considered in the field of Hadith. The present paper has investigated biodiversity on the basis of descriptive-analytical methods and with the approach of library-documentary. The household of the Prophet (as) have referred biodiversity that were included diversity of animals, plants, climate etc. In addition, they also have emphasized on the human need to keep diversity and no damage. It should be noted that they have expressed the rights of the animals and plants for correct using of human, so that human can use these rights in conservation of diversity and their generation.

Keywords: biodiversity, conservation of biodiversity, degradation of biodiversity, extinction of biodiversity

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Authors: Ayda Nikkar, Roghayye Ahmadiasl

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In this letter, a new analytical method called homotopy perturbation method, which does not need small parameter in the equation is implemented for solving the nonlinear Whitham–Broer–Kaup (WBK) partial differential equation. In this method, a homotopy is introduced to be constructed for the equation. The initial approximations can be freely chosen with possible unknown constants which can be determined by imposing the boundary and initial conditions. Comparison of the results with those of exact solution has led us to significant consequences. The results reveal that the HPM is very effective, convenient and quite accurate to systems of nonlinear equations. It is predicted that the HPM can be found widely applicable in engineering.

Keywords: homotopy perturbation method, Whitham–Broer–Kaup (WBK) equation, Modified Boussinesq, Approximate Long Wave

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Authors: Nazia Muhsin, Tofael Ahamed, Ryozo Noguchi, Tomohiro Takigawa

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One of the most challenging issues to achieve sustainable development on food security is land use changes. The crisis of lands for agricultural production mainly arises from the unplanned transformation of agricultural lands to infrastructure development i.e. urbanization and industrialization. Land use without sustainability assessment could have impact on the food security and environmental protections. Bangladesh, as the densely populated country with limited arable lands is now facing challenges to meet sustainable food security. Agricultural lands are using for economic growth by establishing industries. The industries are spreading from urban areas to the suburban areas and using the agricultural lands. To minimize the agricultural land losses for unplanned industrialization, compact economic zones should be find out in a scientific approach. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to find out suitable sites for industrial growth by land suitability analysis (LSA) by using Geographical Information System (GIS) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The goal of the study was to emphases both agricultural lands and industries for sustainable development in land use. The study also attempted to analysis the agricultural land use changes in a suburban area by statistical data of agricultural lands and primary data of the existing industries of the study place. The criteria were selected as proximity to major roads, and proximity to local roads, distant to rivers, waterbodies, settlements, flood-flow zones, agricultural lands for the LSA. The spatial dataset for the criteria were collected from the respective departments of Bangladesh. In addition, the elevation spatial dataset were used from the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) data source. The criteria were further analyzed with factors and constraints in ArcGIS®. Expert’s opinion were applied for weighting the criteria according to the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), a multi-criteria technique. The decision rule was set by using ‘weighted overlay’ tool to aggregate the factors and constraints with the weights of the criteria. The LSA found only 5% of land was most suitable for industrial sites and few compact lands for industrial zones. The developed LSA are expected to help policy makers of land use and urban developers to ensure the sustainability of land uses and agricultural production.

Keywords: AHP (analytical hierarchy process), GIS (geographic information system), LSA (land suitability analysis), MCA (multi-criteria analysis)

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Authors: Yan Jiajun, Baroque Opera, Florentine Camerata

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This paper explores the origins, development, and cultural impact of early European opera, particularly focusing on its inception in late 16th century Italy and its subsequent spread across Europe. Through an in-depth analysis of key operas and performers, this study demonstrates how opera served as both a reflection of and an influence on the social, political, and economic landscapes of early modern Europe. The discussion includes the role of public opera houses, the commercialization of the art form, and the significance of the prima donna, supported by references to relevant literature and historical documents.

Keywords: early European opera, baroque opera, Florentine camerata, prima donna, cultural impact

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Authors: M. Kamel, A. Hoayek, M. Batton-Hubert

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With the increase of network virtualization and the disparity of vendors, the continuous monitoring and detection of anomalies cannot rely on static rules. An advanced analytical methodology is needed to discriminate between ordinary events and unusual anomalies. In this paper, we focus on log data (textual data), which is a crucial source of information for network performance. Then, we introduce an algorithm used as a pipeline to help with the pretreatment of such data, group it into patterns, and dynamically label each pattern as an anomaly or not. Such tools will provide users and experts with continuous real-time logs monitoring capability to detect anomalies and failures in the underlying system that can affect performance. An application of real-world data illustrates the algorithm.

Keywords: logs, anomaly detection, ML, scoring, NLP

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Authors: Julia R. Beulig, Stefan Ohla, Detlev Belder

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In contrast to off-line analytical methods, lab-on-a-chip technology delivers direct information about the observed reaction. Therefore, microfluidic devices make an important scientific contribution, e.g. in the field of synthetic chemistry. Herein, the rapid generation of analytical data can be applied for the optimization of chemical reactions. These microfluidic devices enable a fast change of reaction conditions as well as a resource saving method of operation. In the presented work, we focus on the investigation of multiphase regimes, more specifically on a biphasic microfluidic droplet systems. Here, every single droplet is a reaction container with customized conditions. The biggest challenge is the rapid qualitative and quantitative readout of information as most detection techniques for droplet systems are non-specific, time-consuming or too slow. An exception is the electrospray mass spectrometry (ESI-MS). The combination of a reaction screening platform with a rapid and specific detection method is an important step in droplet-based microfluidics. In this work, we present a novel approach for synthesis optimization on the nanoliter scale with direct ESI-MS detection. The development of a droplet-based microfluidic device, which enables the modification of different parameters while simultaneously monitoring the effect on the reaction within a single run, is shown. By common soft- and photolithographic techniques a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) microfluidic chip with different functionalities is developed. As an interface for the MS detection, we use a steel capillary for ESI and improve the spray stability with a Teflon siphon tubing, which is inserted underneath the steel capillary. By optimizing the flow rates, it is possible to screen parameters of various reactions, this is exemplarity shown by a Domino Knoevenagel Hetero-Diels-Alder reaction. Different starting materials, catalyst concentrations and solvent compositions are investigated. Due to the high repetition rate of the droplet production, each set of reaction condition is examined hundreds of times. As a result, of the investigation, we receive possible reagents, the ideal water-methanol ratio of the solvent and the most effective catalyst concentration. The developed system can help to determine important information about the optimal parameters of a reaction within a short time. With this novel tool, we make an important step on the field of combining droplet-based microfluidics with organic reaction screening.

Keywords: droplet, mass spectrometry, microfluidics, organic reaction, screening

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Authors: Mehdi Saeidmanesh, Razali Ismail

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Recently, Graphene Nanoribbon Field Effect Transistors (GNR FETs) attract a great deal of attention due to their better performance in comparison with conventional devices. In this paper, channel length Modulation (CLM) effect on the electrical characteristics of GNR FETs is analytically studied and modeled. To this end, the special distribution of the electric potential along the channel and current-voltage characteristic of the device is modeled. The obtained results of analytical model are compared to the experimental data of published works. As a result, it is observable that considering the effect of CLM, the current-voltage response of GNR FET is more realistic.

Keywords: graphene nanoribbon, field effect transistors, short channel effects, channel length modulation

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Authors: Guy Joseph Eyebe, Gambo Betchewe, Alidou Mohamadou, Timoleon Crepin Kofane

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In the present study, the dynamics of nanobeam resting on fractional order softening nonlinear viscoelastic pasternack foundations is studied. The Hamilton principle is used to derive the nonlinear equation of the motion. Approximate analytical solution is obtained by applying the standard averaging method. The Melnikov method is used to investigate the chaotic behaviors of device, the critical curve separating the chaotic and non-chaotic regions are found. It is shown that appearance of chaos in the system depends strongly on the fractional order parameter.

Keywords: chaos, fractional-order, Melnikov method, nanobeam

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Authors: Woraya Som-Indra

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This article purposes to decode the notion of democracy embedded in the political speeches of Aung San Su Kyi by adopting critical discourse analysis approach, using Systemic Function Linguistics (SFL) and transitivity as a vital analytical tool. Two main objectives of the study are 1) to analyze linguistic strategies constituted the crucial characteristics of Su Kyi's political speeches by employing SFL and transitivity and 2) to examine ideology manifested the notion of democracy behind Su Kyi’s political speeches. The data consists of four speeches of Su Kyi delivering in different places within the year 2011 broadcasted through the website of US campaign for Burma. By employing linguistic tool and the concept of ideology as an analytical frame, the word choice selection found in the speeches assist explaining the manifestation of Su Kyi’s ideology toward democracy and power struggle. The finding revealed eight characters of word choice projected from Su Kyi’s political speeches, as follows; 1) support, hope and encouragement which render the recipients to uphold with the mutual aim to fight for democracy together and moving forwards for change and solution in the future, 2) aim and achievement evoke the recipients to attach with the purpose to fight for democracy, 3) challenge and change release energy to challenge the present political regime of Burma to change to the new political regime of democracy, 4) action, doing and taking signify the action and practical process to call for a new political regime, 5) struggle represents power struggle during the process of democracy requesting and it could refer to her long period of house arrest in Burma, 6) freedom implies what she has been long fighting for- to be released from house arrest, be able to access to the freedom of speech related to political ideology, and moreover, be able to speak out for the people of Burmese about their desirable political regime and political participation, 7) share and scarify call the recipients to have the spirit of shared value in the process of acquiring democracy, and 8) solution and achievement remind her recipients of what they have been long fighting for, and what could lead them to reach out the mutual achievement of a new political regime, i.e. democracy. Those word choice selections are plausible representation of democracy notion in Su Kyi’s terms. Due to her long journey of fighting for democracy in Burma, Suu Kyi’s political speeches always possess tremendously strong leadership characteristic, using words of wisdom and moreover, they are encoded with a wide range of words related to democracy ideology in order to push forward the future change into the Burma’s political regime.

Keywords: Aung San Su Kyi’s speeches, critical discourse analysis, democracy ideology, systemic function linguistics, transitivity

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Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

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The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spill-over effects in the context of globalization and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: export, GFEVD, global VAR, international trade, weak exogeneity

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Authors: Muhammad Hassan Khalil, Xu Jiadong

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Early detection through screening is the best tool short of a perfect treatment against the malignant tumor inside the breast of a woman. By detecting cancer in its early stages, it can be recognized and treated before it has the opportunity to spread and change into potentially dangerous. Microwave tomography is a new imaging method based on contrast in dielectric properties of materials. The mathematical theory of microwave tomography involves solving an inverse problem for Maxwell’s equations. In this paper, we present designed antenna for breast cancer detection, which will use in microwave tomography configuration.

Keywords: microwave imaging, inverse scattering, breast cancer, malignant tumor detection

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Authors: Abdullahi Mohammed Auwal

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Formation and change or decamping from one political party to another have now become a common trend in Nigeria. Many of the parties’ members who could not secure positions and or win elections in their parties or are not very much satisfied with the trends occurring in the party’s internal democratic principles and mechanisms, change their respective parties. This paper developed/presented and analyzed the used of non linear mathematical model for defections between two political parties using epidemiological approach. The whole population was assumed to be a constant and homogeneously mixed. Equilibria have been analytically obtained and their local and global stability discussed. Conditions for the co-existence of both the political parties have been determined, in the study of defections between People Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressive Congress (APC) in Nigeria using numerical simulations to support the analytical results.

Keywords: model, political parties, deffection, stability, equilibrium, epidemiology

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Olga V. Korotkaya

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This article is devoted to an important problem of calculation of deflected mode of the combustion chamber and the nozzle end of a new liquid-propellant rocket cruise engine. A special attention is given to the methodology of calculation. Three operating modes are considered. The analysis has been conducted in ANSYS software. The methods of conducted research are mathematical modelling, substructure method, cyclic symmetry, and finite element method. The calculation has been carried out to order of S. P. Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation «Energia». The main results are practical. Proposed methodology and created models would be able to use for a wide range of strength problems.

Keywords: combustion chamber, cyclic symmetry, finite element method, liquid-propellant rocket engine, nozzle end, substructure

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