Search results for: forecast uncertainty

Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Mehmet Kunt, Mahdi Nourollahi

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Evaluating the environmental risk factors is a combination of analysis of transportation effects. Various definitions for risk can be found in different scientific sources. Each definition depends on a specific and particular perspective or dimension. The effects of potential risks present along the new proposed routes and existing infrastructures of large transportation projects like railways should be studied under comprehensive engineering frameworks. Despite various definitions provided for ‘risk’, all include a uniform concept. Two obvious aspects, loss and unreliability, have always been pointed in all definitions of this term. But, selection as the third aspect is usually implied and means how one notices it. Currently, conducting engineering studies on the environmental effects of railway projects have become obligatory according to the Environmental Assessment Act in developing countries. Considering the longitudinal nature of these projects and probable passage of railways through various ecosystems, scientific research on the environmental risk of these projects have become of great interest. Although many areas of expertise such as road construction in developing countries have not seriously committed to these studies yet, attention to these subjects in establishment or implementation of different systems have become an inseparable part of this wave of research. The present study used environmental risks identified and existing in previous studies and stations to use in next step. The second step proposes a new hybrid approach of analytical network process (ANP) and DEMATEL in fuzzy conditions for assessment of determined risks. Since evaluation of identified risks was not an easy touch, mesh structure was an appropriate approach for analyzing complex systems which were accordingly employed for problem description and modeling. Researchers faced the shortage of real space data and also due to the ambiguity of experts’ opinions and judgments, they were declared in language variables instead of numerical ones. Since fuzzy logic is appropriate for ambiguity and uncertainty, formulation of experts’ opinions in the form of fuzzy numbers seemed an appropriate approach. Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used to extract the relations between major and minor risk factors. Considering the internal relations of risk major factors and its sub-factors in the analysis of fuzzy network, the weight of risk’s main factors and sub-factors were determined. In general, findings of the present study, in which effective railway environmental risk indicators were theoretically identified and rated through the first usage of combined model of DEMATEL and fuzzy network analysis, indicate that environmental risks can be evaluated more accurately and also employed in railway projects.

Keywords: DEMATEL, ANP, fuzzy, risk

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Authors: Qiyao Han, Xianhai Meng

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Urban infrastructures refer to the fundamental facilities and systems that serve cities. Due to the global climate change and human activities in recent years, many urban areas around the world are facing enormous challenges from natural and man-made disasters, like flood, earthquake and terrorist attack. For this reason, urban resilience to disasters has attracted increasing attention from researchers and practitioners. Given the complexity of infrastructure systems and the uncertainty of disasters, this paper suggests that studies of resilience could focus on urban functional sustainability (in social, economic and environmental dimensions) supported by infrastructure systems under disturbance. It is supposed that urban infrastructure systems with high resilience should be able to reconfigure themselves without significant declines in critical functions (services), such as primary productivity, hydrological cycles, social relations and economic prosperity. Despite that some methods have been developed to integrate the resilience and sustainability of individual infrastructure components, more work is needed to enable system-level integration. This research presents a conceptual analysis framework for integrating resilience and sustainability based on fractal theory. It is believed that the ability of an ecological system to maintain structure and function in face of disturbance and to reorganize following disturbance-driven change is largely dependent on its self-similar and hierarchical fractal structure, in which cross-scale resilience is produced by the replication of ecosystem processes dominating at different levels. Urban infrastructure systems are analogous to ecological systems because they are interconnected, complex and adaptive, are comprised of interconnected components, and exhibit characteristic scaling properties. Therefore, analyzing resilience of ecological system provides a better understanding about the dynamics and interactions of infrastructure systems. This paper discusses fractal characteristics of ecosystem resilience, reviews literature related to system-level infrastructure resilience, identifies resilience criteria associated with sustainability dimensions, and develops a conceptual analysis framework. Exploration of the relevance of identified criteria to fractal characteristics reveals that there is a great potential to analyze infrastructure systems based on fractal. In the conceptual analysis framework, it is proposed that in order to be resilient, urban infrastructure system needs to be capable of “maintaining” and “reorganizing” multi-scale critical functions under disasters. Finally, the paper identifies areas where further research efforts are needed.

Keywords: fractal, urban infrastructure, sustainability, system-level resilience

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Authors: Paul Holmes, Mike N. G.

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Foundation-year doctors face increased stress, pressure and uncertainty when starting new rotations throughout their first years of work. This research questionnaire resulted in an induction cheat sheet and induction video that enhanced the Junior doctor's understanding of how to work effectively within the plastic surgery department at NHS Tayside. The objectives and goals were to improve the transition between cohorts of junior doctors in ward 26 at Ninewells Hospital. Before this quality improvement project, the induction pack was 74 pages long and over eight years old. With the support of consultant Mike Ng a new up-to-date induction was created. This involved a questionnaire and cheat sheet being developed. The questionnaire covered clerking, venipuncture, ward pharmacy, theatres, admissions, specialties on the ward, the cardiac arrest trolley, clinical emergencies, discharges and escalation. This audit has three completed cycles between August 2022 and August 2023. The cheat sheet developed a concise two-page A4 document designed for doctors to be able to reference easily and understand the essentials. The document format is a table containing ward layout; specialty; location; physician associate, shift patterns; ward rounds; handover location and time; hours coverage; senior escalation; nights; daytime duties, meetings/MDTs/board meetings, important bleeps and codes; department guidelines; boarders; referrals and patient stream; pharmacy; absences; rota coordinator; annual leave; top tips. The induction video is a 10-minute in-depth explanation of all aspects of the ward. The video explores in more depth the contents of the cheat sheet. This alternative visual format familiarizes the junior doctor with all aspects of the ward. These were provided to all foundation year 1 and 2 doctors on ward 26 at Ninewells Hospital at NHS Tayside Scotland. This work has since been adopted by the General Surgery Department, which extends to six further wards and has improved the effective handing over of the junior doctor’s role between cohorts. There is potential to further expand the cheat sheet to other departments as the concise document takes around 30 minutes to complete by a doctor who is currently on that ward. The time spent filling out the form provides vital information to the incoming junior doctors, which has a significant possibility to improve patient care.

Keywords: induction, junior doctor, handover, plastic surgery

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Authors: Razaq A. Olaitan, Ayansina Ayanlade

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Understanding aerosol properties is the main goal of global research in order to lower the uncertainty associated with climate change in the trends and magnitude of aerosol particles. In order to identify aerosol particle types, optical properties, and the relationship between aerosol properties and particle concentration between 2019 and 2021, a study conducted in Ilorin, Nigeria, examined the aerosol robotic network's ground-based sun/sky scanning radiometer. The AERONET algorithm version 2 was utilized to retrieve monthly data on aerosol optical depth and angstrom exponent. The version 3 algorithm, which is an almucantar level 2 inversion, was employed to retrieve daily data on single scattering albedo and aerosol size distribution. Excel 2016 was used to analyze the data's monthly, seasonal, and annual mean averages. The distribution of different types of aerosols was analyzed using scatterplots, and the optical properties of the aerosol were investigated using pertinent mathematical theorems. To comprehend the relationships between particle concentration and properties, correlation statistics were employed. Based on the premise that aerosol characteristics must remain constant in both magnitude and trend across time and space, the study's findings indicate that the types of aerosols identified between 2019 and 2021 are as follows: 29.22% urban industrial (UI) aerosol type, 37.08% desert (D) aerosol type, 10.67% biomass burning (BB), and 23.03% urban mix (Um) aerosol type. Convective wind systems, which frequently carry particles as they blow over long distances in the atmosphere, have been responsible for the peak-of-the-columnar aerosol loadings, which were observed during August of the study period. The study has shown that while coarse mode particles dominate, fine particles are increasing in seasonal and annual trends. Burning biomass and human activities in the city are linked to these trends. The study found that the majority of particles are highly absorbing black carbon, with the fine mode having a volume median radius of 0.08 to 0.12 meters. The investigation also revealed that there is a positive coefficient of correlation (r = 0.57) between changes in aerosol particle concentration and changes in aerosol properties. Human activity is rapidly increasing in Ilorin, causing changes in aerosol properties, indicating potential health risks from climate change and human influence on geological and environmental systems.

Keywords: aerosol loading, aerosol types, health risks, optical properties

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Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

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Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

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Authors: Peter Boyes, Sarah Sharples, Paul Tennent, Gary Priestnall, Jeremy Morley

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Significant long-term investment projects can involve complex decisions. These are often described as capital projects, and the factors that contribute to their complexity include budgets, motivating reasons for investment, stakeholder involvement, interdependent projects, and the delivery phases required. The complexity of these projects often requires management groups to be established involving stakeholder representatives; these teams are inherently multidisciplinary. This study uses two university campus capital projects as case studies for this type of management group. Due to the interaction of projects with wider campus infrastructure and users, decisions are made at varying spatial granularity throughout the project lifespan. This spatial-related context brings complexity to the group decisions. Sensemaking is the process used to achieve group situational awareness of a complex situation, enabling the team to arrive at a consensus and make a decision. The purpose of this study is to understand the role of people and data in the complex spatial related long-term decision and sensemaking processes. The paper aims to identify and present issues experienced in practical settings of these types of decision. A series of exploratory semi-structured interviews with members of the two projects elicit an understanding of their operation. From two stages of thematic analysis, inductive and deductive, emergent themes are identified around the group structure, the data usage, and the decision making within these groups. When data were made available to the group, there were commonly issues with the perception of veracity and validity of the data presented; this impacted the ability of group to reach consensus and, therefore, for decisions to be made. Similarly, there were different responses to forecasted or modelled data, shaped by the experience and occupation of the individuals within the multidisciplinary management group. This paper provides an understanding of further support required for team sensemaking and decision making in complex capital projects. The paper also discusses the barriers found to effective decision making in this setting and suggests opportunities to develop decision support systems in this team strategic decision-making process. Recommendations are made for further research into the sensemaking and decision-making process of this complex spatial-related setting.

Keywords: decision making, decisions under uncertainty, real decisions, sensemaking, spatial, team decision making

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Authors: Priyanka Bharti

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Decades ago designs were based on common sense and tradition, but after an enhancement in visualization technology and research, we are now able to comprehend the cognitive ability involved in the decoding of the visual information. However, many fields in visuals need intense research to deliver an efficient explanation for the events. Visuals are an information representation mode through images, symbols and graphics. It plays an impactful role in decision making by facilitating quick recognition, comprehension, and analysis of a situation. They enhance problem-solving capabilities by enabling the processing of more data without overloading the decision maker. As research proves that, visuals offer an improved learning environment by a factor of 400 compared to textual information. Visual information engages learners at a cognitive level and triggers the imagination, which enables the user to process the information faster (visuals are processed 60,000 times faster in the brain than text). Appropriate information, visualization, and its presentation are known to aid and intensify the decision-making process for the users. However, most literature discusses the role of visual aids in comprehension and decision making during normal conditions alone. Unlike emergencies, in a normal situation (e.g. our day to day life) users are neither exposed to stringent time constraints nor face the anxiety of survival and have sufficient time to evaluate various alternatives before making any decision. An emergency is an unexpected probably fatal real-life situation which may inflict serious ramifications on both human life and material possessions unless corrective measures are taken instantly. The situation demands the exposed user to negotiate in a dynamic and unstable scenario in the absence or lack of any preparation, but still, take swift and appropriate decisions to save life/lives or possessions. But the resulting stress and anxiety restricts cue sampling, decreases vigilance, reduces the capacity of working memory, causes premature closure in evaluating alternative options, and results in task shedding. Limited time, uncertainty, high stakes and vague goals negatively affect cognitive abilities to take appropriate decisions. More so, theory of natural decision making by experts has been understood with far more depth than that of an ordinary user. Therefore, in this study, the author aims to understand the role of visual aids in supporting rapid comprehension to take appropriate decisions during an emergency situation.

Keywords: cognition, visual, decision making, graphics, recognition

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Authors: Yonit Nissim, Eyal Weissblueth

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This research is the continuation of a process that began in 2010 with the goal of redesigning the training program for future early childhood teachers at the Ohalo College, to integrate technology and provide 21st-century skills. The article focuses on a study of the processes involved in developing a special educational unit which challenged students with the task of designing, planning and building an internet site for kindergartens. This project was part of their second-year studies in the early childhood track of an interdisciplinary course entitled 'Educating for the Future.' The goal: enabling students to gain experience in developing an internet site specifically for kindergartens, and gain familiarity with Google platforms, the acquisition and use of innovative skills and the integration of technology in pedagogy. Research questions examined how students handled the task of building an internet site. The study explored whether the guided process of building a site helped them develop proficiency in creativity, teamwork, evaluation and learning appropriate to the 21st century. The research tool was a questionnaire constructed by the researchers and distributed online to the students. Answers were collected from 50-course participants. Analysis of the participants’ responses showed that, along with the significant experience and benefits that students gained from building a website for kindergarten, ambivalence was shown toward the use of new, unfamiliar and complex technology. This attitude was characterized by unease and initial emotional distress triggered by the departure from routine training to an island of uncertainty. A gradual change took place toward the adoption of innovation with the help of empathy, training, and guidance from the instructors, leading to the students’ success in carrying out the task. Initial success led to further successes, resulting in a quality product and a feeling of personal competency among the students. A clear and extreme emotional shift was observed on the spectrum from a sense of difficulty and dissatisfaction to feelings of satisfaction, joy, competency and cognitive understanding of the importance of facing a challenge and succeeding. The findings of this study can contribute to increased understanding of the complex training process of future kindergarten teachers, coping with a changing world, and pedagogy that is supported by technology.

Keywords: early childhood teachers, educating for the future, emotions, kindergarten website

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Authors: Siva K. Bathina, Sudheer Siddapureddy

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Pool fires are formed when the flammable liquid accidentally spills on the ground or water and ignites. Pool fire is a kind of buoyancy-driven and diffusion flame. There have been many pool fire accidents caused during processing, handling and storing of liquid fuels in chemical and oil industries. Such kind of accidents causes enormous damage to property as well as the loss of lives. Pool fires are complex in nature due to the strong interaction among the combustion, heat and mass transfers and pyrolysis at the fuel surface. Moreover, the experimental study of such large complex fires involves fire safety issues and difficulties in performing experiments. In the present work, large eddy simulations are performed to study such complex fire scenarios using fire dynamic simulator. A 1 m diesel pool fire is considered for the studied cases, and diesel is chosen as it is most commonly involved fuel in fire accidents. Fire simulations are performed by specifying two different boundary conditions: one the fuel is in liquid state and pyrolysis model is invoked, and the other by assuming the fuel is initially in a vapor state and thereby prescribing the mass loss rate. A domain of size 11.2 m × 11.2 m × 7.28 m with uniform structured grid is chosen for the numerical simulations. Grid sensitivity analysis is performed, and a non-dimensional grid size of 12 corresponding to 8 cm grid size is considered. Flame properties like mass burning rate, irradiance, and time-averaged axial flame temperature profile are predicted. The predicted steady-state mass burning rate is 40 g/s and is within the uncertainty limits of the previously reported experimental data (39.4 g/s). Though the profile of the irradiance at a distance from the fire along the height is somewhat in line with the experimental data and the location of the maximum value of irradiance is shifted to a higher location. This may be due to the lack of sophisticated models for the species transportation along with combustion and radiation in the continuous zone. Furthermore, the axial temperatures are not predicted well (for any of the boundary conditions) in any of the zones. The present study shows that the existing models are not sufficient enough for modeling blended fuels like diesel. The predictions are strongly dependent on the experimental values of the soot yield. Future experiments are necessary for generalizing the soot yield for different fires.

Keywords: burning rate, fire accidents, fire dynamic simulator, pyrolysis

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Authors: Leja Salciute

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Mental health difficulties are one of the reasons for abnormal feeding behaviour. This is especially evident in a crisis situation. Abnormal feeding behaviour occurs when individuals use food as a method to provide relief for these negative emotions. The study aimed to discover an association between emotional regulation, mental health difficulties and disruption in feeding behaviours in the UK in times of crisis. A mixed-methods design was used. Abnormal feeding behaviour was measured using the Binge Eating Disorder Screener-7, SCOFF scale, Crisis impact scale, Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale and demographics. The sample comprised 342 participants with a history of excessive overeating. The participants (male= 198, female= 141 and other= 3) came from the general population and they were aged 16 and over. Participants ranged in age from 16 to 89. Findings from the survey concluded that difficulties with emotion regulation were found to be associated with abnormal feeding behaviours. Mental health difficulties correlated significantly with changes in individuals’ lives, such as work or routines. Individuals differed in their abnormal feeding behaviour in terms of their age, that is, younger individuals showed less struggle with their eating patterns while older individuals faced greater struggles with their abnormal feeding behaviour. Emotion regulation significantly influenced abnormal feeding behaviour. Results from qualitative data suggest four common themes that were identified: demonstration of gratitude, negative emotions, disruptions to social life, and financial loss. For example, participants developed and gained an awareness of being grateful for the simple things in life even when participants experienced hardships. The results also suggested that emotional eating acted like a sedative that allowed the participant to run away from their painful reality. Crisis situation negatively affected relationships among participants and induced negativity related to social interaction. Finally, the respondents highlighted that the presence of uncertainty made it hard to plan ahead and look forward to the future. Although respondents experienced negative emotions and financial losses, some of them still managed to allocate time for themselves and enjoy their time off during crisis. However, majority of respondents referred to their inability to control their external circumstances and turned to and relied upon food overconsumption instead. This had a negative effect on their mental health and presented disruptions in feeding behaviour. It was recommended for individuals in times of crisis to seek psychological support in the form of Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT).

Keywords: binge eating, maladaptive eating behaviours, mental health, negative emotions in crisis

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Authors: Anisah Ari

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Effects of organized crime permeate all facets of life, including public health, socio-economic endeavors, and human security. If any element of this is affected, it impacts large-scale national and global interest. Seeking to address terrorist networks through technical thinking is like trying to kill a weed by just cutting off its branches. It will re-develop and expand in proportions beyond one’s imagination, even in horrific ways that threaten human security. The continent of Africa has been bedeviled by this menace, with little or no solution to the problem. Nigeria is dealing with a protracted insurgency that is perpetrated by a sect against any form of westernization. Reimagining approaches to dealing with pressing issues like terrorism may require engaging the right set of people in the conversation for any sustainable change. These are people who have lived through the daily effects of the violence that ensues from the activities of terrorist activities. Effective leadership is required for an inclusive process, where spaces are created for diverse voices to be heard, and multiple perspectives are listened to, and not just heard, that supports a determination of the realistic outcome. Addressing insurgency in Nigeria has experienced a lot of disinformation and uncertainty. This may be in part due to poor leadership or an iteration of technical solutions to adaptive challenge peacemaking efforts in Nigeria has focused on behaviors, attitudes and practices that contribute to violence. However, it is important to consider the underlying issues that build-up, ignite and fan the flames of violence—looking at conflict as a complex system, issues like climate change, low employment rates, corruption and the impunity of discrimination due to ethnicity and religion. This article will be looking at an option of the more relational way of addressing insurgency through adaptive approaches that embody engagement and solutions with the people rather than for the people. The construction of a local turn in peacebuilding is informed by the need to create a locally driven and sustained peace process that embodies the culture and practices of the people in enacting an everyday peace beyond just a perennial and universalist outlook. A critical analysis that explores the socially identified individuals and situations will be made, considering the more adaptive approach to a complex existential challenge rather than a universalist frame. Case Study and Ethnographic research approach to understand what other scholars have documented on the matter and also a first-hand understanding of the experiences and viewpoints of the participants.

Keywords: terrorism, adaptive, peace, culture

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Authors: Hellen L. De Castro e Silva, Ana A. Robles Aguilar, Erik Meers

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Digestates are residual by-products, rich in nutrients and trace elements, which can be used as organic fertilisers on soils. However, due to the non-digestibility of these elements and reduced dry matter during the anaerobic digestion process, metal concentrations are higher in digestates than in feedstocks, which might hamper their use as fertilisers according to the threshold values of some country policies. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the required assimilated amount of these elements by some crops, which might result in their bioaccumulation. Therefore, further processing of the digestate to obtain safe fertilizing products has been recommended. This research aims to analyze the effect of applying the hydrothermal carbonization process to manure-derived digestates as a thermal treatment to reduce the bioavailability of heavy metals in mono and co-digestates derived from pig manure and maize from contaminated land in France. This study examined pig manure collected from a novel stable system (VeDoWs, province of East Flanders, Belgium) that separates the collection of pig urine and feces, resulting in a solid fraction of manure with high up-concentration of heavy metals and nutrients. Mono-digestion and co-digestion processes were conducted in semi-continuous reactors for 45 days at mesophilic conditions, in which the digestates were dried at 105 °C for 24 hours. Then, hydrothermal carbonization was applied to a 1:10 solid/water ratio to guarantee controlled experimental conditions in different temperatures (180, 200, and 220 °C) and residence times (2 h and 4 h). During the process, the pressure was generated autogenously, and the reactor was cooled down after completing the treatments. The solid and liquid phases were separated through vacuum filtration, in which the solid phase of each treatment -hydrochar- was dried and ground for chemical characterization. Different fractions (exchangeable / adsorbed fraction - F1, carbonates-bound fraction - F2, organic matter-bound fraction - F3, and residual fraction – F4) of some heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Ni, and Cr) have been determined in digestates and derived hydrochars using the modified Community Bureau of Reference (BCR) sequential extraction procedure. The main results indicated a difference in the heavy metals fractionation between digestates and their derived hydrochars; however, the hydrothermal carbonization operating conditions didn’t have remarkable effects on heavy metals partitioning between the hydrochars of the proposed treatments. Based on the estimated potential ecological risk assessment, there was one level decrease (considerate to moderate) when comparing the HMs partitioning in digestates and derived hydrochars.

Keywords: heavy metals, bioavailability, hydrothermal treatment, bio-based fertilisers, agriculture

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Authors: Ajit Singh, Waliur Rahaman, Parmanand Sharma, Laluraj C. M., Lavkush Patel, Bhanu Pratap, Vinay Kumar Gaddam, Meloth Thamban

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The Himalayan glaciers are the potential source of perennial water supply to Asia’s major river systems like the Ganga, Brahmaputra and the Indus. In order to improve our understanding about the source of precipitation and hydrograph components in the interior Himalayan glaciers, it is important to decipher the sources of moisture and their contribution to the glaciers in this river system. In doing so, we conducted an extensive pilot study in a Sutri Dhaka glacier, western Himalaya during 2014-15. To determine the moisture sources, rain, surface snow, ice, and stream meltwater samples were collected and analyzed for stable oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and hydrogen (δD) isotopes. A two-component hydrograph separation was performed for the glacier stream using these isotopes assuming the contribution of rain, groundwater and spring water contribution is negligible based on field studies and available literature. To validate the results obtained from hydrograph separation using above method, snow and ice melt ablation were measured using a network of bamboo stakes and snow pits. The δ¹⁸O and δD in rain samples range from -5.3% to -20.8% and -31.7% to -148.4% respectively. It is noteworthy to observe that the rain samples showed enriched values in the early season (July-August) and progressively get depleted at the end of the season (September). This could be due to the ‘amount effect’. Similarly, old snow samples have shown enriched isotopic values compared to fresh snow. This could because of the sublimation processes operating over the old surface snow. The δ¹⁸O and δD values in glacier ice samples range from -11.6% to -15.7% and -31.7% to -148.4%, whereas in a Sutri Dhaka meltwater stream, it ranges from -12.7% to -16.2% and -82.9% to -112.7% respectively. The mean deuterium excess (d-excess) value in all collected samples exceeds more than 16% which suggests the predominant moisture source of precipitation is from the Western Disturbances. Our detailed estimates of the hydrograph separation of Sutri Dhaka meltwater using isotope hydrograph separation and glaciological field methods agree within their uncertainty; stream meltwater budget is dominated by glaciers ice melt over snowmelt. The present study provides insights into the sources of moisture, controlling mechanism of the isotopic characteristics of Sutri Dhaka glacier water and helps in understanding the snow and ice melt components in Chandra basin, Western Himalaya.

Keywords: D-excess, hydrograph separation, Sutri Dhaka, stable water isotope, western Himalaya

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Authors: Yogesh Kumar Singh, T. S. Murugesh Prabhu, Upasana Dutta, Girishchandra Yendargaye, Rahul Yadav, Rohini Gopinath Kale, Binay Kumar, Manoj Khare

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The Indian subcontinent is severely affected by floods that cause intense irreversible devastation to crops and livelihoods. With increased incidences of floods and their related catastrophes, an Early Warning System for Flood Prediction and an efficient Flood Management System for the river basins of India is a must. Accurately modeled hydrological conditions and a web-based early warning system may significantly reduce economic losses incurred due to floods and enable end users to issue advisories with better lead time. This study describes the design and development of an EWS-FP using advanced computational tools/methods, viz. High-Performance Computing (HPC), Remote Sensing, GIS technologies, and open-source tools for the Mahanadi River Basin of India. The flood prediction is based on a robust 2D hydrodynamic model, which solves shallow water equations using the finite volume method. Considering the complexity of the hydrological modeling and the size of the basins in India, it is always a tug of war between better forecast lead time and optimal resolution at which the simulations are to be run. High-performance computing technology provides a good computational means to overcome this issue for the construction of national-level or basin-level flash flood warning systems having a high resolution at local-level warning analysis with a better lead time. High-performance computers with capacities at the order of teraflops and petaflops prove useful while running simulations on such big areas at optimum resolutions. In this study, a free and open-source, HPC-based 2-D hydrodynamic model, with the capability to simulate rainfall run-off, river routing, and tidal forcing, is used. The model was tested for a part of the Mahanadi River Basin (Mahanadi Delta) with actual and predicted discharge, rainfall, and tide data. The simulation time was reduced from 8 hrs to 3 hrs by increasing CPU nodes from 45 to 135, which shows good scalability and performance enhancement. The simulated flood inundation spread and stage were compared with SAR data and CWC Observed Gauge data, respectively. The system shows good accuracy and better lead time suitable for flood forecasting in near-real-time. To disseminate warning to the end user, a network-enabled solution is developed using open-source software. The system has query-based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. System effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to floods, like displaying spatial maps of the area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of the damage.

Keywords: flood, modeling, HPC, FOSS

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Authors: Nivedhitha Venkatakrishnan

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Flooding in urban areas in India has become a usual ritual phenomenon and a nightmare to most cities, which is a consequence of man-made disruption resulting in disaster. The City planning in India falls short of withstanding hydro generated disasters. This has become a barrier and challenge in the process of development put forth by urbanization, high population density, expanding informal settlements, environment degradation from uncollected and untreated waste that flows into natural drains and water bodies, this has disrupted the natural mechanism of hazard protection such as drainage channels, wetlands and floodplains. The magnitude and the impact of the mishap was high because of the failure of development policies, strategies, plans that the city had adopted. In the current scenario, cities are becoming the home for future, with economic diversification bringing in more investment into cities especially in domains of Urban infrastructure, planning and design. The uncertainty of the Urban futures in these low elevated coastal zones faces an unprecedented risk and threat. The study on focuses on three major pillars of resilience such as Recover, Resist and Restore. This process of getting ready to handle the situation bridges the gap between disaster response management and risk reduction requires a shift in paradigm. The study involved a qualitative research and a system design approach (framework). The initial stages involved mapping out of the urban water morphology with respect to the spatial growth gave an insight of the water bodies that have gone missing over the years during the process of urbanization. The major finding of the study was missing links between traditional water harvesting network was a major reason resulting in a manmade disaster. The research conceptualized the ideology of a sponge city framework which would guide the growth through institutional frameworks at different levels. The next stage was on understanding the implementation process at various stage to ensure the shift in paradigm. Demonstration of the concepts at a neighborhood level where, how, what are the functions and benefits of each component. Quantifying the design decision with rainwater harvest, surface runoff and how much water is collected and how it could be collected, stored and reused. The study came with further recommendation for Water Mitigation Spaces that will revive the traditional harvesting network.

Keywords: flooding, man made disaster, resilient city, traditional harvesting network, waterbodies

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Authors: Francesca Schiavello

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This work aims to create a hybrid algorithm, combining Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) with an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) in the place of traditional gradient based optimization processes. QAOA’s were first introduced in 2014, where, at the time, their algorithm performed better than the traditional best known classical algorithm for Max-cut graphs. Whilst classical algorithms have improved since then and have returned to being faster and more efficient, this was a huge milestone for quantum computing, and their work is often used as a benchmarking tool and a foundational tool to explore variants of QAOA’s. This, alongside with other famous algorithms like Grover’s or Shor’s, highlights to the world the potential that quantum computing holds. It also presents the reality of a real quantum advantage where, if the hardware continues to improve, this could constitute a revolutionary era. Given that the hardware is not there yet, many scientists are working on the software side of things in the hopes of future progress. Some of the major limitations holding back quantum computing are the quality of qubits and the noisy interference they generate in creating solutions, the barren plateaus that effectively hinder the optimization search in the latent space, and the availability of number of qubits limiting the scale of the problem that can be solved. These three issues are intertwined and are part of the motivation for using EAs in this work. Firstly, EAs are not based on gradient or linear optimization methods for the search in the latent space, and because of their freedom from gradients, they should suffer less from barren plateaus. Secondly, given that this algorithm performs a search in the solution space through a population of solutions, it can also be parallelized to speed up the search and optimization problem. The evaluation of the cost function, like in many other algorithms, is notoriously slow, and the ability to parallelize it can drastically improve the competitiveness of QAOA’s with respect to purely classical algorithms. Thirdly, because of the nature and structure of EA’s, solutions can be carried forward in time, making them more robust to noise and uncertainty. Preliminary results show that the EA algorithm attached to QAOA can perform on par with the traditional QAOA with a Cobyla optimizer, which is a linear based method, and in some instances, it can even create a better Max-Cut. Whilst the final objective of the work is to create an algorithm that can consistently beat the original QAOA, or its variants, due to either speedups or quality of the solution, this initial result is promising and show the potential of EAs in this field. Further tests need to be performed on an array of different graphs with the parallelization aspect of the work commencing in October 2023 and tests on real hardware scheduled for early 2024.

Keywords: evolutionary algorithm, max cut, parallel simulation, quantum optimization

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Authors: Kristen Emory, Jerry Flores

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Purpose: We explore the unique and underrepresented experiences of Indigenous women living in Toronto, Canada, during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to better document the impacts of COVID-19 on the mental health and well-being of Indigenous women in Toronto, Canada, in order to better understand unmet needs, as well as lay the groundwork for more targeted research and potential interventions based on these needs. Background: It has been fairly well documented that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased mental health concerns among various populations globally. There have also been numerous studies indicating increases in substance use and abuse in response to the stress of the pandemic. There is also evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted a variety of historically marginalized populations in Canada, the US, and globally, including Indigenous populations. While these studies provide some insight into how the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the global population, much less is known about the lived experiences of Indigenous populations during the time of COVID-19. Better understanding these experiences will allow public health professionals, governments, and non-governmental organizations better combat health inequities related to the pandemic. Methods: In-depth qualitative semi-structured virtual (due to COVID-19) interviews with 13 Indigenous women were conducted during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020). Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed by team members using Dedoose qualitative analysis software. Findings: COVID-19 negatively affected Indigenous females identifying participants’ mental health and corresponding reported increases in substance use. In addition to the daily stress of the unpredictability of life in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic, participants cited job loss, economic concerns, homeschooling, and lack of access to medical resources as primary factors in increasing their stress and decreasing mental health and wellbeing. In response to these stressors, a majority of participants cited coping mechanisms such as increased substance use to help deal with the uncertainty. In particular, alcohol and tobacco emerged as coping mechanisms to help participants cope with stress related to the pandemic (as well as its social and economic toll on respondents' lives). We will present qualitative data to be presented, including participant direct quotes, explaining their experiences with COVID-19, mental health, and increased substance use, as well as analysis and synthesis with the existing scientific evidence base. Conclusion: This research is among the good studies to our knowledge that scientifically explore the impact of COVID-19 on mental health and well-being and corresponding increases in reported substance use.

Keywords: mental health, covid-19, indigenous, inequity, anxiety, depression, stress

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Authors: Manana Lobzhanidze

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The COVID-19 pandemic has made significant changes in migration processes, notably changes in the study migration process. The constraints caused by the COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in the studying process, which negatively affected its efficiency. The educational process has partially or completely shifted to distance learning; Both labor and study migration have increased significantly in the world. The employment and education market has become global and consequently, a number of challenges have arisen for employers, researchers, and businesses. The role of preparing qualified personnel in achieving high productivity is justified, the benefits for employers and employees are assessed on the one hand, and the role of study migration for the country’s development is examined on the other hand. Research methods. The research is based on methods of analysis and synthesis, quantitative and qualitative, groupings, relative and mean quantities, graphical representation, comparison, analysis and etc. In-depth interviews were conducted with experts to determine quantitative and qualitative indicators. Research findings. Factors affecting study migration are analysed in the paper and the environment that stimulates migration is explored. One of the driving forces of migration is considered to be the desire for receiving higher pay. Levels and indicators of study migration are studied by country. Comparative analysis has found that study migration rates are high in countries where the price of skilled labor is high. The productivity of individuals with low skills is low, which negatively affects the economic development of countries. It has been revealed that students leave the country to improve their skills during study migration. The process mentioned in the article is evaluated as a positive event for a developing country, as individuals are given the opportunity to share the technology of developed countries, gain knowledge, and then introduce it in their own country. The downside of study migration is the return of a small proportion of graduates from developed economies to their home countries. The article concludes that countries with emerging economies devote less resources to research and development, while this is a priority in developed countries, allowing highly skilled individuals to use their skills efficiently. The paper studies the national education system examines the level of competition in the education market and the indicators of educational migration. The level of competition in the education market and the indicators of educational migration are studied. The role of qualified personnel in achieving high productivity is substantiated, the benefits of employers and employees are assessed on the one hand, and the role of study migration in the development of the country is revealed on the other hand. The paper also analyzes the level of competition in the education and labor markets and identifies indicators of study migration. During the pandemic period, there was a great demand for the digital technologies. Open access to a variety of comprehensive platforms will significantly reduce study migration to other countries. As a forecast, it can be said that the intensity of the use of e-learning platforms will be increased significantly in the post-pandemic period. The paper analyzes the positive and negative effects of study migration on economic development, examines the challenges of study migration in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests ways to avoid negative consequences, and develops recommendations for improving the study migration process in the post-pandemic period.

Keywords: study migration, COVID-19 pandemic, factors affecting migration, economic development, post-pandemic migration

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Authors: Rene Hellmuth

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Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the construction of a factory. The requirements for factory planning and the building of a factory have changed in recent years. Regular restructuring of the factory building is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A building information model (BIM) is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable data repository to be able to react quickly to changes. Use as a planning basis for restructuring measures in factories only succeeds if the BIM model has adequate data quality. Under this aspect and the industrial requirement, three data quality factors are particularly important for this paper regarding the BIM model: up-to-dateness, completeness, and correctness. The research question is: how can a BIM model be kept up to date with required data quality and which visualization techniques can be applied in a short period of time on the construction site during conversion measures? An as-is analysis is made of how BIM models and digital factory models (including laser scans) are currently being kept up to date. Industrial companies are interviewed, and expert interviews are conducted. Subsequently, the results are evaluated, and a procedure conceived how cost-effective and timesaving updating processes can be carried out. The availability of low-cost hardware and the simplicity of the process are of importance to enable service personnel from facility mnagement to keep digital factory models (BIM models and laser scans) up to date. The approach includes the detection of changes to the building, the recording of the changing area, and the insertion into the overall digital twin. Finally, an overview of the possibilities for visualizations suitable for construction sites is compiled. An augmented reality application is created based on an updated BIM model of a factory and installed on a tablet. Conversion scenarios with costs and time expenditure are displayed. A user interface is designed in such a way that all relevant conversion information is available at a glance for the respective conversion scenario. A total of three essential research results are achieved: As-is analysis of current update processes for BIM models and laser scans, development of a time-saving and cost-effective update process and the conception and implementation of an augmented reality solution for BIM models suitable for construction sites.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory model, factory planning, restructuring

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Authors: Monica Racha, Siva Chandrasekaran, Alex Stojcevski

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The engineering programs focus on promoting students' personal and professional development by ensuring that students acquire technical and professional competencies during four-year studies. The traditional engineering laboratory provides an opportunity for students to "practice by doing," and laboratory facilities aid them in obtaining insight and understanding of their discipline. Due to rapid technological advancements and the current COVID-19 outbreak, the traditional labs were transforming into virtual learning environments. Aim: To better understand the limitations of the physical laboratory, this research study aims to use a Machine Learning (ML) algorithm that interfaces with the Augmented Reality HoloLens and predicts the image behavior to classify and detect the electronic components. The automated electronic components error classification and detection automatically detect and classify the position of all components on a breadboard by using the ML algorithm. This research will assist first-year undergraduate engineering students in conducting laboratory practices without any supervision. With the help of HoloLens, and ML algorithm, students will reduce component placement error on a breadboard and increase the efficiency of simple laboratory practices virtually. Method: The images of breadboards, resistors, capacitors, transistors, and other electrical components will be collected using HoloLens 2 and stored in a database. The collected image dataset will then be used for training a machine learning model. The raw images will be cleaned, processed, and labeled to facilitate further analysis of components error classification and detection. For instance, when students conduct laboratory experiments, the HoloLens captures images of students placing different components on a breadboard. The images are forwarded to the server for detection in the background. A hybrid Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) algorithm will be used to train the dataset for object recognition and classification. The convolution layer extracts image features, which are then classified using Support Vector Machine (SVM). By adequately labeling the training data and classifying, the model will predict, categorize, and assess students in placing components correctly. As a result, the data acquired through HoloLens includes images of students assembling electronic components. It constantly checks to see if students appropriately position components in the breadboard and connect the components to function. When students misplace any components, the HoloLens predicts the error before the user places the components in the incorrect proportion and fosters students to correct their mistakes. This hybrid Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) algorithm automating electronic component error classification and detection approach eliminates component connection problems and minimizes the risk of component damage. Conclusion: These augmented reality smart glasses powered by machine learning provide a wide range of benefits to supervisors, professionals, and students. It helps customize the learning experience, which is particularly beneficial in large classes with limited time. It determines the accuracy with which machine learning algorithms can forecast whether students are making the correct decisions and completing their laboratory tasks.

Keywords: augmented reality, machine learning, object recognition, virtual laboratories

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Authors: Keith Schofield, Leigh Morland

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Storytelling is an established means of leadership and management development and is also considered a form of leadership of self and others in its own right. This study focuses on the utility of storytelling in the development of management narratives in an MBA programme; sources include programme participants as well as international recruiters, whose voices are often only heard in terms of economic contribution and globalisation. For many MBA candidates, the return to study requires the development of a new identity which complements their professional identity; each candidate has their own journey and expectations, the use of story can enable candidates to explore their aspirations and assumptions and give voice to previously unspoken ideas. For international recruitment, the story of market development and change must be captured if MBAs are to remain fit for purpose. If used effectively, story acts as a form of critical reflection that can inform the learning journeys of individuals, emerging identities as well as the ongoing design and development of programmes. The landscape of management education is shifting; the MBA begins to attract a different kind of candidate, some are younger than before, others are seeking validation for their existing work practices, yet more are entrepreneurial and wish to capitalise on an institutional experience to further their career. There is a shift in context, creating uncertainty and ambiguity for programme managers and recruiters, thus requiring institutions to create a new MBA narrative. This study utilises Lego SeriousPlay as the means to engaging programme participants and international agents in telling the story of their MBA. We asked MBA participants to tell the story of their leadership and management aspirations and compare these to stories of their development journeys, allowing for critical reflection of their respective development gaps. We asked international recruiters, who act as university agents and promote courses in the student’s country of origin, to explore their mental models of MBA candidates and their learning agenda. The purpose of this process was to explore the agent’s perception of the MBA programme and to articulate the student journey from a recruitment perspective. The paper’s unique contribution is in combining these stories in order to explore the assumptions that determine programme design. Data drawn from reflective statements together with images of Lego ‘builds’ created the opportunity for reflection between the mental models of these groups. Findings will inform the design of the MBA journey and experience; we review the extent to which the changing identities of learners are congruent with programme design. Data from international recruiters also determines the extent to which marketing and recruitment strategies identify with would be candidates.

Keywords: critical reflection, programme management, recruitment, storytelling

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Authors: Stephanie Watson, Fabrice Stephenson, Conrad Pilditch, Carolyn Lundquist

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Spatial data detailing both the distribution and density of functionally important marine species are needed to inform management decisions. Species distribution models (SDMs) have proven helpful in this regard; however, models often focus only on species occurrences derived from spatially expansive datasets and lack the resolution and detail required to inform regional management decisions. Boosted regression trees (BRT) were used to produce high-resolution SDMs (250 m) at two spatial scales predicting probability of occurrence, abundance (count per sample unit), density (count per km2) and uncertainty for seven coastal seafloor taxa that vary in habitat usage and distribution to examine prediction differences and implications for coastal management. We investigated if small scale regionally focussed models (82,000 km2) can provide improved predictions compared to data-rich national scale models (4.2 million km2). We explored the variability in predictions across model type (occurrence vs abundance) and model scale to determine if specific taxa models or model types are more robust to geographical variability. National scale occurrence models correlated well with broad-scale environmental predictors, resulting in higher AUC (Area under the receiver operating curve) and deviance explained scores; however, they tended to overpredict in the coastal environment and lacked spatially differentiated detail for some taxa. Regional models had lower overall performance, but for some taxa, spatial predictions were more differentiated at a localised ecological scale. National density models were often spatially refined and highlighted areas of ecological relevance producing more useful outputs than regional-scale models. The utility of a two-scale approach aids the selection of the most optimal combination of models to create a spatially informative density model, as results contrasted for specific taxa between model type and scale. However, it is vital that robust predictions of occurrence and abundance are generated as inputs for the combined density model as areas that do not spatially align between models can be discarded. This study demonstrates the variability in SDM outputs created over different geographical scales and highlights implications and opportunities for managers utilising these tools for regional conservation, particularly in data-limited environments.

Keywords: Benthic ecology, spatial modelling, multi-scalar modelling, marine conservation.

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Authors: Ruchirat Patanathabutr

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This applied research has adopted descriptive social science research methodology to interpret, analyze and assess the data and used descriptive analysis to present the research results. The objective of this research is to investigate the behaviors and opinions on the service and construction of cable car system at the Upper Esaan Wild Animal Adventure Park (Khon Kaen – Udon Thani) in Khao Suan Kwang District, Khon Kaen Province (Khon Kaen Zoo) of people in the local and distant communities as well as the service users. The research results have revealed that the main target group is the residents in the upper northeastern region of Thailand, especially those who have resided in the immediate vicinity of the cable car project and in nearby districts for more than 10 years. They are men and women at the age of 20-60 with high school diploma and higher levels of education, working as traders/entrepreneurs, government officers/state enterprise employees, and freelancers/self-employed, with the average monthly income of no more than 30,000 baht. Khon Kaen Zoo should improve its 4 organizational images as a tourist attraction, an animal display enclosure, an educational institution and as a provincial symbol; however, the zoo should mainly be presented as an important tourist attraction. The service should focus on maintaining the service standards in both the animal display area and the ocean park. The attention should also be directed at the types and numbers of animals, service quality, service fee, convenient access and transportation, promotions and the standards of other services. Regarding the community involvement in the cable car system construction project, it is strongly agreed that there should be a cable car service between the animal display area and the ocean park and a round-trip ticket should cost 20 baht, 50 baht or 100 baht, respectively. Khon Kaen Zoo or responsible entity must provide related groups of people, such as people in the local and distant communities as well as the service users, with accurate information about the community management guidelines. This is because the community opinions have showed the uncertainty about the cable car system construction at Khon Kaen Zoo and the 4 principles of management, including planning, organizing, leading and controlling, are indicated as uncertain as there is no statistically significant difference at 0.05. In addition, the social, economic, and environmental impacts of the cable car system construction at Khon Kaen Zoo on the communities must be considered carefully.

Keywords: community opinion, cable car system, Khon Kaen Zoo, Thailand

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Authors: Sven Borén, Henrik Ny

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Ambitions within the EU for moving towards sustainable transport include major emission reductions for fossil fuel road vehicles, especially for buses, trucks, and cars. The electric driveline seems to be an attractive solution for such development. This study first applied the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development to compare sustainability effects of today’s fossil fuel vehicles with electric vehicles that have batteries or hydrogen fuel cells. The study then addressed a scenario were electric vehicles might be in majority in Europe by 2050. The methodology called Strategic Lifecycle Assessment was first used, were each life cycle phase was assessed for violations against sustainability principles. This indicates where further analysis could be done in order to quantify the magnitude of each violation, and later to create alternative strategies and actions that lead towards sustainability. A Life Cycle Assessment of combustion engine cars, plug-in hybrid cars, battery electric cars and hydrogen fuel cell cars was then conducted to compare and quantify environmental impacts. The authors found major violations of sustainability principles like use of fossil fuels, which contribute to the increase of emission related impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, ozone depletion, and particulate matters. Other violations were found, such as use of scarce materials for batteries and fuel cells, and also for most life cycle phases for all vehicles when using fossil fuel vehicles for mining, production and transport. Still, the studied current battery and hydrogen fuel cell cars have less severe violations than fossil fuel cars. The life cycle assessment revealed that fossil fuel cars have overall considerably higher environmental impacts compared to electric cars as long as the latter are powered by renewable electricity. By 2050, there will likely be even more sustainable alternatives than the studied electric vehicles when the EU electricity mix mainly should stem from renewable sources, batteries should be recycled, fuel cells should be a mature technology for use in vehicles (containing no scarce materials), and electric drivelines should have replaced combustion engines in other sectors. An uncertainty for fuel cells in 2050 is whether the production of hydrogen will have had time to switch to renewable resources. If so, that would contribute even more to a sustainable development. Except for being adopted in the GreenCharge roadmap, the authors suggest that the results can contribute to planning in the upcoming decades for a sustainable increase of EVs in Europe, and potentially serve as an inspiration for other smaller or larger regions. Further studies could map the environmental effects in LCA further, and include other road vehicles to get a more precise perception of how much they could affect sustainable development.

Keywords: strategic, electric vehicles, sustainability, LCA

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Authors: Shaine Mehta, Neelam Parmar, Patrick White, Mark Ashworth

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Patients with a history of substance have a high prevalence of comorbidities, including asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Mortality rates are higher than that of the general population and the link to respiratory disease is reported. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) support opioid substitution therapy as an effective means for harm reduction. However, whilst a high proportion of patients receiving opioid substitution therapy are smokers, to the author’s best knowledge there have been no studies of respiratory disease and smoking intensity in these patients. A cross sectional prevalence study was conducted using an anonymised patient-level database in primary care, Lambeth DataNet (LDN). We included patients aged 18 years and over who had records of ever having been prescribed methadone in primary care. Patients under 18 years old or prescribed buprenorphine (because of uncertainty about the prescribing indication) were excluded. Demographic, smoking, alcohol and asthma and COPD coding data were extracted. Differences between methadone and non-methadone users were explored with multivariable analysis. LDN contained data on 321, 395 patients ≥ 18 years; 676 (0.16%) had a record of methadone prescription. Patients prescribed methadone were more likely to be male (70.7% vs. 50.4%), older (48.9yrs vs. 41.5yrs) and less likely to be from an ethnic minority group (South Asian 2.1% vs. 7.8%; Black African 8.9% vs. 21.4%). Almost all those prescribed methadone were smokers or ex-smokers (97.3% vs. 40.9%); more were non-alcohol drinkers (41.3% vs. 24.3%). We found a high prevalence of COPD (12.4% vs 1.4%) and asthma (14.2% vs 4.4%). Smoking intensity data shows a high prevalence of ≥ 20 cigarettes per day (21.5% vs. 13.1%). Risk of COPD, adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity and deprivation, was raised in smokers: odds ratio 14.81 (95%CI 11.26, 19.47), and in the methadone group: OR 7.51 (95%CI: 5.78, 9.77). Furthermore, after adjustment for smoking intensity (number of cigarettes/day), the risk was raised in methadone group: OR 4.77 (95%CI: 3.13, 7.28). High burden of respiratory disease compounded by the high rates of smoking is a public health concern. This supports an integrated approach to health in patients treated for opiate dependence, with access to smoking cessation support. Further work may evaluate the current structure and commissioning of substance misuse services, including smoking cessation. Regression modelling highlights that methadone as a ‘risk factor’ was independently associated with COPD prevalence, even after adjustment for smoking intensity. This merits further exploration, as the association may be related to unexplored aspects of smoking (such as the number of years smoked) or may be related to other related exposures, such as smoking heroin or crack cocaine.

Keywords: methadone, respiratory disease, smoking cessation, substance misuse

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Authors: Rawan K. Al-Duaij, Salem A. Al-Salem

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Projects, the unique and temporary process of achieving a set of requirements have always been challenging; Planning the schedule and budget, managing the resources and risks are mostly driven by a similar past experience or the technical consultations of experts in the matter. With that complexity of Projects in Scope, Time, and execution environment, Adjustment Orders are tools to reflect changes to the original project parameters after Contract signature. Adjustment Orders are the official/legal amendments to the terms and conditions of a live Contract. Reasons for issuing Adjustment Orders arise from changes in Contract scope, technical requirement and specification resulting in scope addition, deletion, or alteration. It can be as well a combination of most of these parameters resulting in an increase or decrease in time and/or cost. Most business leaders (handling projects in the interest of the owner) refrain from using Adjustment Orders considering their main objectives of staying within budget and on schedule. Success in managing the changes results in uninterrupted execution and agreed project costs as well as schedule. Nevertheless, this is not always practically achievable. In this paper, a detailed study through utilizing Industrial Engineering & Systems Management tools such as Six Sigma, Data Analysis, and Quality Control were implemented on the organization’s five years records of the issued Adjustment Orders in order to investigate their prevalence, and time and cost impact. The analysis outcome revealed and helped to identify and categorize the predominant causations with the highest impacts, which were considered most in recommending the corrective measures to reach the objective of minimizing the Adjustment Orders impacts. Data analysis demonstrated no specific trend in the AO frequency in past five years; however, time impact is more than the cost impact. Although Adjustment Orders might never be avoidable; this analysis offers’ some insight to the procedural gaps, and where it is highly impacting the organization. Possible solutions are concluded such as improving project handling team’s coordination and communication, utilizing a blanket service contract, and modifying the projects gate system procedures to minimize the possibility of having similar struggles in future. Projects in the Oil and Gas sector are always evolving and demand a certain amount of flexibility to sustain the goals of the field. As it will be demonstrated, the uncertainty of project parameters, in adequate project definition, operational constraints and stringent procedures are main factors resulting in the need for Adjustment Orders and accordingly the recommendation will be to address that challenge.

Keywords: adjustment orders, data analysis, oil and gas sector, systems management

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Authors: Mike Wei, Mario Cedillo, Jiahui Lin, Carol Lorraine Storey-Johnson, Carla Boutin-Foster

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Purpose: The extent to which health insurance enrollment succeeds under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) rests heavily on the ability to reach the uninsured and motivate them to enroll. We sought to identify perceptions about the ACA among uninsured patients at a free clinic in New York City. Background: The ACA holds tremendous promise for reducing the number of uninsured Americans. As of April 2014, nearly 8 million people had signed up for health insurance through the Health Insurance Marketplace. Despite this early success, future and continued enrollment rests heavily on the degree of public awareness. Reaching eligible individuals and increasing their awareness and understanding remains a fundamental challenge to realizing the full potential of the ACA. Reaching out to uninsured patients who are seeking care through safety net facilities such as free clinics may provide important avenues for reaching potential enrollees. This project focuses on the experience at the free clinic at Weill Cornell Medical College, the Weill Cornell Community Clinic (WCCC), and seeks to understand perceptions about the ACA among its patient population. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of all patients who visited the free clinic at Weill Cornell Medical College, the Weill Cornell Community Clinic, from July 2013 to May 2014. Patients who provided informed consent at their visit and completed a semi-structured questionnaire were included (N=62). The questionnaire comprised of questions about demographic characteristics and open-ended questions about their knowledge and perception of the impact of the ACA. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the population demographics. Qualitative coding techniques were used for open-ended items. Results: Approximately one third of patients surveyed never had health insurance. Of the remaining 65%, 20% lost their insurance within the past year. Only 55% had heard about the ACA, and only 10% knew about the Health Benefits Exchange. Of those who had heard about the ACA, sentiments were tinged with optimistic misperceptions, such as “it will be free health care for all.” While optimistic, most of the responses focused on the economic implications of the ACA. Conclusions: These findings reveal the immense amount of misconception and lack of understanding with regards to the ACA. As such, the study highlights the need to educate and address the concerns of those who remain skeptical or uncertain about the implications of the ACA.

Keywords: Affordable Care Act, demographics, free clinics, underserved.

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Authors: Kimuel Suyat, Francis Aldrine Uy, John Paul Carreon

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The Philippines, composed of many islands, is connected with approximately 8030 bridges. Continuous evaluation of the structural condition of these bridges is needed to safeguard the safety of the general public. With most bridges reaching its design life, retrofitting and replacement may be needed. Concerned government agencies allocate huge costs for periodic monitoring and maintenance of these structures. The rising volume of traffic and aging of these infrastructures is challenging structural engineers to give rise for structural health monitoring techniques. Numerous techniques are already proposed and some are now being employed in other countries. Vibration Analysis is one way. The natural frequency and vibration of a bridge are design criteria in ensuring the stability, safety and economy of the structure. Its natural frequency must not be so high so as not to cause discomfort and not so low that the structure is so stiff causing it to be both costly and heavy. It is well known that the stiffer the member is, the more load it attracts. The frequency must not also match the vibration caused by the traffic loads. If this happens, a resonance occurs. Vibration that matches a systems frequency will generate excitation and when this exceeds the member’s limit, a structural failure will happen. This study presents a method for calculating dynamic fragility through the use of vibration-based monitoring system. Dynamic fragility is the probability that a structural system exceeds a limit state when subjected to dynamic loads. The bridge is modeled in SAP2000 based from the available construction drawings provided by the Department of Public Works and Highways. It was verified and adjusted based from the actual condition of the bridge. The bridge design specifications are also checked using nondestructive tests. The approach used in this method properly accounts the uncertainty of observed values and code-based structural assumptions. The vibration response of the structure due to actual loads is monitored using installed sensors on the bridge. From the determinacy of these dynamic characteristic of a system, threshold criteria can be established and fragility curves can be estimated. This study conducted in relation with the research project between Department of Science and Technology, Mapúa Institute of Technology, and the Department of Public Works and Highways also known as Mapúa-DOST Smart Bridge Project deploys Structural Health Monitoring Sensors at Zamora Bridge. The bridge is selected in coordination with the Department of Public Works and Highways. The structural plans for the bridge are also readily available.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, dynamic characteristic, threshold criteria, traffic loads

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Authors: Olga Maksakova

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A work with unconscious patients after acute brain damages besides special knowledge and practical skills of all the participants requires a very specific organization. A lot of said about team approach in neurorehabilitation, usually as for outpatient mode. Rehabilitologists deal with fixed patient problems or deficits (motion, speech, cognitive or emotional disorder). Team-building means superficial paradigm of management psychology. Linear mode of teamwork fits casual relationships there. Cases with deep altered states of consciousness (vegetative states, coma, and confusion) require non-linear mode of teamwork: recovery of consciousness might not be the goal due to phenomenon uncertainty. Rehabilitation team as Semi-open Complex System includes the patient as a part. Patient's response pattern becomes formed not only with brain deficits but questions-stimuli, context, and inquiring person. Teamwork is sourcing of phenomenology knowledge of patient's processes as Third-person approach is replaced with Second- and after First-person approaches. Here is a chance for real-time change. Patient’s contacts with his own body and outward things create a basement for restoration of consciousness. The most important condition is systematic feedbacks to any minimal movement or vegetative signal of the patient. Up to now, recovery work with the most severe contingent is carried out in the mode of passive physical interventions, while an effective rehabilitation team should include specially trained psychologists and psychotherapists. It is they who are able to create a network of feedbacks with the patient and inter-professional ones building up the team. Characteristics of ‘Team-Patient’ system (TPS) are energy, entropy, and complexity. Impairment of consciousness as the absence of linear contact appears together with a loss of essential functions (low energy), vegetative-visceral fits (excessive energy and low order), motor agitation (excessive energy and excessive order), etc. Techniques of teamwork are different in these cases for resulting optimization of the system condition. Directed regulation of the system complexity is one of the recovery tools. Different signs of awareness appear as a result of system self-organization. Joint meetings are an important part of teamwork. Regular or event-related discussions form the language of inter-professional communication, as well as the patient's shared mental model. Analysis of complex communication process in TPS may be useful for creation of the general theory of consciousness.

Keywords: rehabilitation team, urgent rehabilitation, severe brain damage, consciousness disorders, complex system theory

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Authors: Xavier Louis, Madhava Soma Sundaram

Abstract:

The Palk Bay, a narrow strip of water, separates the state of Tamil Nadu in India from north Sri Lanka. The bay, which is 137 km in length and varies from 64 to 137 kilometers in width and is home to more than 580 fish species and chunks of shrimp’s resources, is divided by the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL). The bay, bordering it are five Tamil Nadu districts of India and three Sri Lankan districts and assumes importance as it is one of the areas presenting permanent and serious challenges to both India and Sri Lanka with respect to the fishing rights in the Bay. Fishermen from both sides were enjoying fishing with hormones for centuries. Katchchadeevu is a tiny Island located in the Bay, which was a part of India. After the Katchchadeevu agreement 1974 it became a part of Sri Lanka and a fishing conflict arose between the two countries' fishermen. Fuelling the dispute over Katchatheevu is the overfishing of Indian mechanized trawlers in Palk Bay and the damaging environmental and economic effects of trawling. Since 2008, more than 300 Indian fishermen have been killed by firing by Sri Lankan Navy, nearly 100 fishermen have gone missing and more than 3000 fishermen were arrested and later released after the trials for trespassing into Sri Lankan waters. Currently, more than 120 fishing boats and 29 fishermen are in Sri Lankan custody. This paper attempts to find out the causes of fishing conflict and who has the fishing rights in the mentioned waters, how the international treaties are complied with at the time of arrest and trials, how the arrested fishermen are treated by them and how they suffer from fishermen families without a breadwinner. A Semi-structured interview schedule tool was prepared by the researcher, which is suitable for measuring quantitative and qualitative aspects of the above-mentioned theme. One hundred arrested fishermen were interviewed and recorded their prison experiences in Sri Lanka. The research found that the majority of the fishermen believe that they have the right to fish in the historical water and that the Sri Lankan Naval personnel have brutally attacked the Indian fishermen at the time of the arrest. The majority of the fishermen accepted that they had limited fishing grounds. As a result, they entered Sri Lankan waters for their livelihood. The majority of the fishermen expected that they would also get their belongings back at the time of release, primarily the boats. Most of the arrested fishermen's families face financial crises in the absence of their breadwinners and this situation has created conditions for child labor among the affected families and some fishers migrate to different places for different occupations. The majority of the fishers have trauma about their victimization and face uncertainty in the future of their occupation. We can discuss more the causes and nature of the fishing conflict and the financial and psychological victimization of Indian fishermen in relation to the conflict.

Keywords: palk bay, historical water, fishing conflict, arrested fishermen, victimization

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