Search results for: equivalent linear model

Authors: Mauricio Molina

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The present research project aims to determine whether it is possible to have a statement, allowing you to have an economic model to establish clearly if the population that uses the rail system underground in the city of Medellin with an increase in productivity total factor. The present project aims to concentrate on the surroundings to the system underground for a period of 60 months in the city of Medellin. According to the review bibliographic is can establish that in it most of them cases, the cities that have with systems of transport rail are more productive. And should to its time present is an analysis that may lead to determine if effectively the use of the transport railway improves the productivity of a city and its inhabitants.

Keywords: economic growth, mobility urban, total factor productivity, rail transport

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a severe health problem which is common among obese individuals. The components of MetS are rather stable in adults compared to the components discussed for children. Due to the ambiguity in this group of the population, how to diagnose MetS in morbid obese (MO) children still constitutes a matter of discussion. For this purpose, a formula, which facilitates the diagnosis of MetS in MO children, was investigated. The aim of this study was to develop a formula which was capable of discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings. Study population comprised MO children. Age and sex-dependent body mass index (BMI) percentiles of the children were above 99. Metabolic syndrome components were also determined. Elevated systolic and diastolic blood pressures (SBP and DBP), elevated fasting blood glucose (FBG), elevated triglycerides (TRG), and/or depressed high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) in addition to central obesity were listed as MetS components for each child. Presence of at least two of these components confirmed that the case was MetS. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, there were forty-two MO children without MetS components. Second group was composed of forty-four MO children with at least two MetS components. Anthropometric measurements, including weight, height, waist, and hip circumferences, were performed following physical examination. Body mass index and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance values were calculated. Informed consent forms were obtained from the parents of the children. Institutional Non-Interventional Ethics Committee approved the study design. Blood pressure values were recorded. Routine biochemical analysis, including FBG, insulin (INS), TRG, HDL-C were performed. The performance and the clinical utility of the Diagnostic Obesity Notation Model Assessment Metabolic Syndrome Index (DONMA MetS index) [(INS/FBG)/(HDL-C/TRG)*100] was tested. Appropriate statistical tests were applied to the study data. p value smaller than 0.05 was defined as significant. Metabolic syndrome index values were 41.6±5.1 in MO group and 104.4±12.8 in MetS group. Corresponding values for HDL-C values were 54.5±13.2 mg/dl and 44.2±11.5 mg/dl. There were statistically significant differences between the groups (p<0.001). Upon evaluation of the correlations between MetS index and HDL-C values, a much stronger negative correlation was found in MetS group (r=-0.515; p=0.001) in comparison with the correlation detected in MO group (r=-0.371; p=0.016). From these findings, it was concluded that the statistical significance degree of the difference between MO and MetS groups was highly acceptable for this recently introduced MetS index as expected. This was due to the involvement of all of the biochemically defined MetS components into the index. This is particularly important because each of these four parameters used in the formula is cardiac risk factor. Aside from discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings, MetS index introduced in this study is important from the cardiovascular risk point of view in MetS group of children.

Keywords: children, fasting blood glucose, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, index, insulin, metabolic syndrome, morbid obesity, triglycerides.

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Authors: Oscar Vega Camacho, Andrea Vargas, Ellery Ariza

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This paper presents the application of finite dynamic programming, specifically the "Markov Chain" model, as part of the decision making process of a company in the cosmetics sector located in the vicinity of Bogota DC. The objective of this process was to decide whether the company should completely reconstruct its waste water treatment plant or instead optimize the plant through the addition of equipment. The goal of both of these options was to make the required improvements in order to comply with parameters established by national legislation regarding the treatment of waste before it is released into the environment. This technique will allow the company to select the best option and implement a solution for the processing of waste to minimize environmental damage and the acquisition and implementation costs.

Keywords: decision making, markov chain, optimization, waste water

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Authors: Ruwaida Abdul Rasid, Kevin J. Hughes, Peter J. Henggs, Mohamed Pourkashanian

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Heightened concerns over the amount of carbon emitted from coal-related processes are generating shifts to the application of biomass. In co-gasification, where coal is gasified along with biomass, the biomass may be fed together with coal (co-feeding) or an independent biomass gasifier needs to be integrated with the coal gasifier. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the biomass introduction methods in coal co-gasification. This includes the evaluation of biomass concentration input (B0 to B100) and its gasification performance. A process model is developed and simulated in Aspen HYSYS, where both coal and biomass are modeled according to its ultimate analysis. It was found that the syngas produced increased with increasing biomass content for both co-feeding and independent schemes. However, the heating values and heat duties decreases with biomass concentration as more CO2 are produced from complete combustion.

Keywords: aspen HYSYS, biomass, coal, co-gasification modelling, simulation

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Authors: Benjamin Mauck, Kevin Winter

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The city of Cape Town in South Africa, has shown consistent economic and population growth in the last few decades and that growth is expected to continue to increase into the future. These projected economic and population growth rates are set to place additional pressure on the city’s already strained water supply system. Thus, given Cape Town’s water scarcity, increasing water demands and stressed water supply system, coupled with global awareness around the issues of sustainable development, environmental protection and climate change, alternative water management strategies are required to ensure water is sustainably managed. Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) is an approach to sustainable urban water management that attempts to assign a resource value to all forms of water in the urban context, viz. stormwater, wastewater, potable water and groundwater. WSUD employs a wide range of strategies to improve the sustainable management of urban water such as the water reuse, developing alternative available supply sources, sustainable stormwater management and enhancing the aesthetic and recreational value of urban water. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is one WSUD strategy which has proven to be a successful reuse strategy in a number of places around the world. MAR is the process where an aquifer is intentionally or artificially recharged, which provides a valuable means of water storage while enhancing the aquifers supply potential. This paper investigates the feasibility of implementing MAR in the sandy, unconfined Cape Flats Aquifer (CFA) in Cape Town. The main objective of the study is to assess if MAR is a viable strategy for stormwater management on the Cape Flats, aiding the prevention or mitigation of the seasonal flooding that occurs on the Cape Flats, while also improving the supply potential of the aquifer. This involves the infiltration of stormwater into the CFA during the wet winter months and in turn, abstracting from the CFA during the dry summer months for fit-for-purpose uses in order to optimise the recharge and storage capacity of the CFA. The fully-integrated MIKE SHE model is used in this study to simulate both surface water and groundwater hydrology. This modelling approach enables the testing of various potential recharge and abstraction scenarios required for implementation of MAR on the Cape Flats. Further MIKE SHE scenario analysis under projected future climate scenarios provides insight into the performance of MAR as a stormwater management strategy under climate change conditions. The scenario analysis using an integrated model such as MIKE SHE is a valuable tool for evaluating the feasibility of the MAR as a stormwater management strategy and its potential to contribute towards improving Cape Town’s water security into the future.

Keywords: managed aquifer recharge, stormwater management, cape flats aquifer, MIKE SHE

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Authors: Hyung Joo Lee, Jin Young Choi, Gun Soo Park, Kyo Sun Oh, Dong Jun Won

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The fluctuation of the output of the renewable generator caused by weather conditions must be mitigated because it imposes strain on the system and adversely affects power quality. In this paper, we focus on mitigating the output fluctuation of the photovoltaic (PV) using battery energy storage system (BESS). To satisfy tight conditions of system, proposed algorithm is developed. This algorithm focuses on adjusting the integrated output curve considering state of capacity (SOC) of the battery. In this paper, the simulation model is PSCAD / EMTDC software. SOC of the battery and the overall output curve are shown using the simulation results. We also considered losses and battery efficiency.

Keywords: photovoltaic generation, battery energy storage system, renewable integration, power smoothing

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Authors: Amira Khelil, Habib Affes

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The XXIst century is characterized by promoting teamwork as one of the main drivers of firms` performance. Collective competence is becoming crucial in developing and maintaining a firm’s competitive advantage, as well as its contributions to organizational innovation. In other words, the improvement of collective competence for a firm is no longer a choice, but rather an obligation. Learning capabilities of a firm in the context of knowledge management are assumed to be the main drivers of collective competence. Although there are some efforts to consider these concepts together; they are mostly discussed separately in the management theory. Thus, this paper aims to offer a holistic approach for development collective competence on the basis of Knowledge Management and Organizational Learning Capabilities. A theoretical model that defines a relationship between knowledge management, organizational learning and collective competence is presented at the end of this paper.

Keywords: collective competence, exploitation learning, exploration learning, knowledge management, organizational learning capabilities

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Authors: Tugba Ayas Onol

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The paper revisits Jean-François Lyotard’s interpretation of the Kantian Sublime as a tool for understanding politics after modernity. In 1985 Lyotard announces the end of rational politics based on consensus and claims that new strategies are urged to recognize the political imperatives of marginalized groups. The charm of the sublime as a reflective judgment is grounded on the fact that the judgment of sublime is free from any notion of consensus or common sense in particular. Lyotard interprets this feature of the sublime as a respect for heterogeneity and for him aesthetic judgments can be a model for understanding justice in postmodern times, in which it seems hard to follow a single universal law among different phrase regimes. More importantly, the Kantian sublime speaks to what Lyotard addresses as the incommensurability of phase genres. The present paper shall try to evaluate Lyotard’s employment of the Kantian notion of the sublime in relation to its possible political import.

Keywords: Kant, Lyotard, sublime, politics

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Authors: Noor-ul-Ain, Muhammad Thair Khan, Adeela Ajmal, Hamid Mustafa

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Pakistan is an agricultural country and livestock only share 11.8 percent to national GDP during 2015-16. Pakistan is a 3rd largest milk producing country having 41.2, 35.6, 29.4, 68.4 and 1.0 million head cattle, buffalo, sheep, goat and camel, respectively. Modern urbanization and shortage of feed resources for livestock species in a country is an alarming threat. The introduction of new technology and advanced techniques solve this issue. This includes drought feeding, increase production, aid to crop management, balance nutrition and easily storaged of wet feed products. It is therefore clear that silage has important role in animal feed and feeding. Financial model of this study clear the effectiveness of silage. Therefore, it is revealed from this study that silage is a cost-effective option for a profitable dairy farming in Pakistan.

Keywords: feed, silage, dairy, production, Pakistan

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Authors: Maria Debora Braga, Luigi Riso, Maria Grazia Zoia

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Risk-based approaches to asset allocation are portfolio construction methods that do not rely on the input of expected returns for the asset classes in the investment universe and only use risk information. They include the Minimum Variance Strategy (MV strategy), the traditional (volatility-based) Risk Parity Strategy (SRP strategy), the Most Diversified Portfolio Strategy (MDP strategy) and, for many, the Equally Weighted Strategy (EW strategy). All the mentioned approaches were based on portfolio volatility as a reference risk measure but in 2023, the Kurtosis-based Risk Parity strategy (KRP strategy) and the Minimum Kurtosis strategy (MK strategy) were introduced. Understandably, they used the fourth root of the portfolio-fourth moment as a proxy for portfolio kurtosis to work with a homogeneous function of degree one. This paper contributes mainly theoretically and methodologically to the framework of risk-based asset allocation approaches with two steps forward. First, a new and more flexible objective function considering a linear combination (with positive coefficients that sum to one) of portfolio volatility and portfolio kurtosis is used to alternatively serve a risk minimization goal or a homogeneous risk distribution goal. Hence, the new basic idea consists in extending the achievement of typical risk-based approaches’ goals to a combined risk measure. To give the rationale behind operating with such a risk measure, it is worth remembering that volatility and kurtosis are expressions of uncertainty, to be read as dispersion of returns around the mean and that both preserve adherence to a symmetric framework and consideration for the entire returns distribution as well, but also that they differ from each other in that the former captures the “normal” / “ordinary” dispersion of returns, while the latter is able to catch the huge dispersion. Therefore, the combined risk metric that uses two individual metrics focused on the same phenomena but differently sensitive to its intensity allows the asset manager to express, in the context of an objective function by varying the “relevance coefficient” associated with the individual metrics, alternatively, a wide set of plausible investment goals for the portfolio construction process while serving investors differently concerned with tail risk and traditional risk. Since this is the first study that also implements risk-based approaches using a combined risk measure, it becomes of fundamental importance to investigate the portfolio effects triggered by this innovation. The paper also offers a second contribution. Until the recent advent of the MK strategy and the KRP strategy, efforts to highlight interesting properties of risk-based approaches were inevitably directed towards the traditional MV strategy and SRP strategy. Previous literature established an increasing order in terms of portfolio volatility, starting from the MV strategy, through the SRP strategy, arriving at the EQ strategy and provided the mathematical proof for the “equalization effect” concerning marginal risks when the MV strategy is considered, and concerning risk contributions when the SRP strategy is considered. Regarding the validity of similar conclusions when referring to the MK strategy and KRP strategy, the development of a theoretical demonstration is still pending. This paper fills this gap.

Keywords: risk parity, portfolio kurtosis, risk diversification, asset allocation

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Authors: Marwa Hussien Mohamed, Mohamed Helmy Khafagy

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Map-Reduce is a programming model which is widely used to extract valuable information from enormous volumes of data. Map-reduce designed to support heterogeneous datasets. Apache Hadoop map-reduce used extensively to uncover hidden pattern like data mining, SQL, etc. The most important operation for data analysis is joining operation. But, map-reduce framework does not directly support join algorithm. This paper explains and compares two-way and multi-way map-reduce join algorithms for map reduce also we implement MR join Algorithms and show the performance of each phase in MR join algorithms. Our experimental results show that map side join and map merge join in two-way join algorithms has the longest time according to preprocessing step sorting data and reduce side cascade join has the longest time at Multi-Way join algorithms.

Keywords: Hadoop, MapReduce, multi-way join, two-way join, Ubuntu

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Authors: Mustapha Aminu Bagiwa, Ainuddin Wahid Abdul Wahab, Mohd Yamani Idna Idris, Suleman Khan

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Video source device identification has become a problem of concern in numerous domains especially in multimedia security and digital investigation. This is because videos are now used as evidence in legal proceedings. Source device identification aim at identifying the source of digital devices using the content they produced. However, due to affordable processing tools and the influx in digital content generating devices, source device identification is still a major problem within the digital forensic community. In this paper, we discuss source device identification for digital videos by identifying techniques that were proposed in the literature for model or specific device identification. This is aimed at identifying salient open challenges for future research.

Keywords: video forgery, source camcorder, device identification, forgery detection

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Authors: Laurent Thiry, Michel Hassenforder

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This paper presents a general approach to implement efficient queries’ interpreters in a functional programming language. Indeed, most of the standard tools actually available use an imperative and/or object-oriented language for the implementation (e.g. Java for Jena-Fuseki) but other paradigms are possible with, maybe, better performances. To proceed, the paper first explains how to model data structures and queries in a functional point of view. Then, it proposes a general methodology to get performances (i.e. number of computation steps to answer a query) then it explains how to integrate some optimization techniques (short-cut fusion and, more important, data transformations). It then compares the functional server proposed to a standard tool (Fuseki) demonstrating that the first one can be twice to ten times faster to answer queries.

Keywords: data transformation, functional programming, information server, optimization

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Authors: Mohammed Salem Atoum

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The success of audio steganography is to ensure imperceptibility of the embedded message in stego file and withstand any form of intentional or un-intentional degradation of message (robustness). Audio steganographic that utilized LSB of audio stream to embed message gain a lot of popularity over the years in meeting the perceptual transparency, robustness and capacity. This research proposes an XLSB technique in order to circumvent the weakness observed in LSB technique. Scrambling technique is introduce in two steps; partitioning the message into blocks followed by permutation each blocks in order to confuse the contents of the message. The message is embedded in the MP3 audio sample. After extracting the message, the permutation codebook is used to re-order it into its original form. Md5sum and SHA-256 are used to verify whether the message is altered or not during transmission. Experimental result shows that the XLSB performs better than LSB.

Keywords: XLSB, scrambling, audio steganography, security

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Authors: Jesús Horacio, Alfredo Ollero, Víctor Bouzas-Blanco, Augusto Pérez-Alberti

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Rivers have traditionally been classified, assessed and managed in terms of hydrological, chemical and / or biological criteria. Geomorphological classifications had in the past a secondary role, although proposals like River Styles Framework, Catchment Baseline Survey or Stroud Rural Sustainable Drainage Project did incorporate geomorphology for management decision-making. In recent years many studies have been attracted to the geomorphological component. The geomorphological processes and their associated forms determine the structure of a river system. Understanding these processes and forms is a critical component of the sustainable rehabilitation of aquatic ecosystems. The fluvial auto-classification approach suggests that a river is a self-built natural system, with processes and forms designed to effectively preserve their ecological function (hydrologic, sedimentological and biological regime). Fluvial systems are formed by a wide range of elements with multiple non-linear interactions on different spatial and temporal scales. Besides, the fluvial auto-classification concept is built using data from the river itself, so that each classification developed is peculiar to the river studied. The variables used in the classification are specific stream power and mean grain size. A discriminant analysis showed that these variables are the best characterized processes and forms. The statistical technique applied allows to get an individual discriminant equation for each geomorphological type. The geomorphological classification was developed using sites with high naturalness. Each site is a control point of high ecological and geomorphological quality. The changes in the conditions of the control points will be quickly recognizable, and easy to apply a right management measures to recover the geomorphological type. The study focused on Galicia (NW Spain) and the mapping was made analyzing 122 control points (sites) distributed over eight river basins. In sum, this study provides a method for fluvial geomorphological classification that works as an open and flexible tool underlying the fluvial auto-classification concept. The hydrographic mapping is the visual expression of the results, such that each river has a particular map according to its geomorphological characteristics. Each geomorphological type is represented by a particular type of hydraulic geometry (channel width, width-depth ratio, hydraulic radius, etc.). An alteration of this geometry is indicative of a geomorphological disturbance (whether natural or anthropogenic). Hydrographic mapping is also dynamic because its meaning changes if there is a modification in the specific stream power and/or the mean grain size, that is, in the value of their equations. The researcher has to check annually some of the control points. This procedure allows to monitor the geomorphology quality of the rivers and to see if there are any alterations. The maps are useful to researchers and managers, especially for conservation work and river restoration.

Keywords: fluvial auto-classification concept, mapping, geomorphology, river

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Authors: Nulu Nanono

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Background: The Ugandan national health policy and the national population policy all recognize the need to increase access to quality, affordable, acceptable and sustainable contraceptive services for all people but provision and utilization of quality services remains low. Two contraceptive methods are categorized as long-acting temporary methods: intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUCDs) and implants. Copper-containing IUCDs, generally available in Ministry of Health (MoH) family planning programs and is effective for at least 12 years while Implants, depending on the type, last for up to three to seven years. Uganda’s current policy and political environment are favorable towards achieving national access to quality and safe contraceptives for all people as evidenced by increasing government commitments and innovative family planning programs. Despite the increase of modern contraception use from 14% to 26%, long acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) utilization has relatively remained low with less than 5% using IUDs & Implants which in a way explains Uganda’s persistent high fertility rates. Main question/hypothesis: The purpose of the study was to examine relationship between the demographic, socio-economic characteristics of women, health facility factors and long acting reversible contraception utilization. Methodology: LARC utilization was investigated comprising of the two questions namely are you or your partner currently doing something or using any method to delay or avoid getting pregnant? And which method or methods are you using? Data for the study was sourced from the 2016 Uganda Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 Survey comprising of 3816 female respondents aged 15 to 49 years. The analysis was done using the Chi-squared tests and the probit regression at bivariate and multivariate levels respectively. The model was further tested for validity and normality of the residuals using the Sharipo wilks test and test for kurtosis and skewness. Results: The results showed the model the age, parity, marital status, region, knowledge of LARCs, availability of LARCs to be significantly associated with long acting contraceptive utilization with p value of less than 0.05. At the multivariate analysis level, women who had higher parities (0.000) tertiary education (0.013), no knowledge about LARCs (0.006) increases their probability of using LARCs. Furthermore while women age 45-49, those who live in the eastern region reduces their probability of using LARCs. Knowledge contribution: The findings of this study join the debate of prior research in this field and add to the body of knowledge related to long acting reversible contraception. An outstanding and queer finding from the study is the non-utilization of LARCs by women who are aware and have knowledge about them, this may be an opportunity for further research to investigate the attribution to this.

Keywords: contraception, long acting, utilization, women (15-49)

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Authors: Tomasz Robert Kuczerski

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The high complexity of the algorithm of the autonomous tandem detonator system creates an optimization problem due to the parallel operation of several machine states of the system. Many years of experience and classic analyses have led to a partially optimized model. Limitations on the energy resources of this class of autonomous systems make it necessary to search for more effective methods of optimisation. The use of the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) in these studies shows the most promising results. With the help of multiple evaluations of several qubit quantum circuits, proper results of variable parameter optimization were obtained. In addition, it was observed that the increase in the number of assessments does not result in further efficient growth due to the increasing complexity of optimising variables. The tests confirmed the effectiveness of the QAOA optimization method.

Keywords: algorithm analysis, autonomous system, quantum optimization, tandem detonator

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Authors: M. Amara, M. Tahar Abbes, A. Dokkiche, M. Benbrike

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Shear stresses generate frictional forces thus lead to the reduction of engine performance due to the power losses. This friction can also cause damage to the piston material. Thus, the choice of an optimal material for the piston is necessary to improve the elastohydrodynamical contacts of the piston. In this study, to achieve this objective, an elastohydrodynamical lubrication model that satisfies the best tribological behavior of the piston with the optimum choice of material is developed. Several aluminum alloys composed of different components are studied in this simulation. An application is made on the piston 60 x 120 mm Diesel engine type F8L413 currently mounted on Deutz trucks TB230 by using different aluminum alloys where alloys based on aluminum-silicon have better tribological performance.

Keywords: EHD lubricated contacts, friction, properties of materials, tribological performance

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Authors: Sofie Verstraete, Stijn Debruyne, Frederik Desplentere

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Considering environmental issues, the interest to apply sustainable materials in industry increases. Specifically for composites, there is an emerging need for suitable materials and bonding techniques. As an alternative to traditional composites, short bio-fiber (cellulose-based flax) reinforced Polylactic Acid (PLA) is gaining popularity. However, these thermoplastic based composites show issues in adhesive bonding. This research focusses on analyzing the effects of the fibers near the bonding interphase. The research applies injection molded plate structures. A first important parameter concerns the fiber volume fraction, which directly affects adhesion characteristics of the surface. This parameter is varied between 0 (pure PLA) and 30%. Next to fiber volume fraction, the orientation of fibers near the bonding surface governs the adhesion characteristics of the injection molded parts. This parameter is not directly controlled in this work, but its effects are analyzed. Surface roughness also greatly determines surface wettability, thus adhesion. Therefore, this research work considers three different roughness conditions. Different mechanical treatments yield values up to 0.5 mm. In this preliminary research, only one adhesive type is considered. This is a two-part epoxy which is cured at 23 °C for 48 hours. In order to assure a dedicated parametric study, simple and reproduceable adhesive bonds are manufactured. Both single lap (substrate width 25 mm, thickness 3 mm, overlap length 10 mm) and double lap tests are considered since these are well documented and quite straightforward to conduct. These tests are conducted for the different substrate and surface conditions. Dog bone tensile testing is applied to retrieve the stiffness and strength characteristics of the substrates (with different fiber volume fractions). Numerical modelling (non-linear FEA) relates the effects of the considered parameters on the stiffness and strength of the different joints, obtained through the abovementioned tests. Ongoing work deals with developing dedicated numerical models, incorporating the different considered adhesion parameters. Although this work is the start of an extensive research project on the bonding characteristics of thermoplastic bio-fiber reinforced composites, some interesting results are already prominent. Firstly, a clear correlation between the surface roughness and the wettability of the substrates is observed. Given the adhesive type (and viscosity), it is noticed that an increase in surface energy is proportional to the surface roughness, to some extent. This becomes more pronounced when fiber volume fraction increases. Secondly, ultimate bond strength (single lap) also increases with increasing fiber volume fraction. On a macroscopic level, this confirms the positive effect of fibers near the adhesive bond line.

Keywords: adhesive bonding, bio-fiber reinforced composite, flax fibers, lap joint

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Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

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Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

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Authors: Ebru Ozgur Guler, Huseyin Guler, Sera Sanli

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Social Progress Index (SPI) whose fundamentals have been thrown in the World Economy Forum is an index which aims to form a systematic basis for guiding strategy for inclusive growth which requires achieving both economic and social progress. In this research, it has been aimed to determine the relations among “Basic Human Needs” (BHN) (including four variables of ‘Nutrition and Basic Medical Care’, ‘Water and Sanitation’, ‘Shelter’ and ‘Personal Safety’) and “Opportunity” (OPT) (that is composed of ‘Personal Rights’, ‘Personal Freedom and Choice’, ‘Tolerance and Inclusion’, and ‘Access to Advanced Education’ components) dimensions of 2016 SPI for 138 countries which take place in the website of Social Progress Imperative by carrying out canonical correlation analysis (CCA) which is a data reduction technique that operates in a way to maximize the correlation between two variable sets. In the interpretation of results, the first pair of canonical variates pointing to the highest canonical correlation has been taken into account. The first canonical correlation coefficient has been found as 0.880 indicating to the high relationship between BHN and OPT variable sets. Wilk’s Lambda statistic has revealed that an overall effect of 0.809 is highly large for the full model in order to be counted as statistically significant (with a p-value of 0.000). According to the standardized canonical coefficients, the largest contribution to BHN set of variables has come from ‘shelter’ variable. The most effective variable in OPT set has been detected to be ‘access to advanced education’. Findings based on canonical loadings have also confirmed these results with respect to the contributions to the first canonical variates. When canonical cross loadings (structure coefficients) are examined, for the first pair of canonical variates, the largest contributions have been provided by ‘shelter’ and ‘access to advanced education’ variables. Since the signs for structure coefficients have been found to be negative for all variables; all OPT set of variables are positively related to all of the BHN set of variables. In case canonical communality coefficients which are the sum of the squares of structure coefficients across all interpretable functions are taken as the basis; amongst all variables, ‘personal rights’ and ‘tolerance and inclusion’ variables can be said not to be useful in the model with 0.318721 and 0.341722 coefficients respectively. On the other hand, while redundancy index for BHN set has been found to be 0.615; OPT set has a lower redundancy index with 0.475. High redundancy implies high ability for predictability. The proportion of the total variation in BHN set of variables that is explained by all of the opposite canonical variates has been calculated as 63% and finally, the proportion of the total variation in OPT set that is explained by all of the canonical variables in BHN set has been determined as 50.4% and a large part of this proportion belongs to the first pair. The results suggest that there is a high and statistically significant relationship between BHN and OPT. This relationship is generally accounted by ‘shelter’ and ‘access to advanced education’.

Keywords: canonical communality coefficient, canonical correlation analysis, redundancy index, social progress index

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Authors: C. C. Kruger, P. Van Tonder

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Concrete deteriorates over time and the deterioration can be escalated due to multiple factors. When deteriorations are beneath the concrete’s surface, they could be unknown, even more so when they are located at high elevations. Establishing the severity of such defects could prove difficult and therefore the need to find efficient, safe and economical methods to find these defects becomes ever more important. Current methods using thermography to find defects require equipment such as scaffolding to reach these higher elevations. This could become time- consuming and costly. The risks involved with personnel scaffold or abseil to such heights are high. Accordingly, by combining the technologies of a thermal camera and a Remotely Piloted Aerial System it could be used to find better diagnostic methods. The data could then be constructed into a 3D thermal model to easy representation of the results

Keywords: concrete, infrared thermography, 3D thermal models, diagnostic

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Authors: Bayu Dwi Cahyo, Ekohariadi, Theodorus Wiyanto Wibowo, I. G. P. Asto Budithahjanto, Eppy Yundra

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The objective of this study is to examine the effects of self-confidence, adversity quotient, and self-efficacy variables on critical thinking. This research's participants are 137 cadets of Aviation Polytechnics of Surabaya with the sampling technique that was purposive sampling. In this study, the data collection method used a questionnaire with Linkert-scale and distributed or given to respondents by the specified number of samples. The SPSS AMOS v23 was used to test a number of a priori multivariate growth curve models and examining relationships between the variables via path analysis. The result of path analysis was (χ² = 88.463, df= 71, χ² /df= 1.246, GFI= .914, CFI= .988, P= .079, AGFI= .873, TLI= .985, RMSEA= .043). According to the analysis, there is a positive and significant relationship between self-confidence, adversity quotient, and self-efficacy variables on critical thinking.

Keywords: self-confidence, adversity quotient, self-efficacy variables, critical thinking

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Authors: Abdurrahim Dal, Tuncay Karaçay

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Dynamics of a rotor supported by air bearings is strongly depends on the pressure distribution between the rotor and the bearing. In this study, internal pressure in air bearings is numerical and experimental analyzed for different radial clearances. Firstly the pressure distribution between rotor and bearing is modeled using Reynold's equation and this model is solved numerically. The rotor-bearing system is also modeled in four degree of freedom and it is simulated for different radial clearances. Then, in order to validate numerical results, a test rig is designed and the rotor bearing system is run under the same operational conditions. Pressure signals of left and right bearings are recorded. Internal pressure variations are compared for numerical and experimental results for different radial clearances.

Keywords: air bearing, internal pressure, Reynold’s equation, rotor

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Authors: Ping-Hsiung Wang, Kuo-Chun Chang

Abstract:

There has been a common trend worldwide in the seismic design and evaluation of bridges towards the performance-based method where the lateral displacement or the displacement ductility of bridge column is regarded as an important indicator for performance assessment. However, the seismic response of a bridge to an earthquake is a combined result of cyclic displacements and accumulated energy dissipation, causing damage to the bridge, and hence the lateral displacement (ductility) alone is insufficient to tell its actual seismic performance. This study aims to propose a damage-based seismic design and evaluation method for reinforced concrete bridges on the basis of the newly developed capacity-based inelastic displacement spectra. The capacity-based inelastic displacement spectra that comprise an inelastic displacement ratio spectrum and a corresponding damage state spectrum was constructed by using a series of nonlinear time history analyses and a versatile, smooth hysteresis model. The smooth model could take into account the effects of various design parameters of RC bridge columns and correlates the column’s strength deterioration with the Park and Ang’s damage index. It was proved that the damage index not only can be used to accurately predict the onset of strength deterioration, but also can be a good indicator for assessing the actual visible damage condition of column regardless of its loading history (i.e., similar damage index corresponds to similar actual damage condition for the same designed columns subjected to very different cyclic loading protocols as well as earthquake loading), providing a better insight into the seismic performance of bridges. Besides, the computed spectra show that the inelastic displacement ratio for far-field ground motions approximately conforms to the equal displacement rule when structural period is larger than around 0.8 s, but that for near-fault ground motions departs from the rule in the whole considered spectral regions. Furthermore, the near-fault ground motions would lead to significantly greater inelastic displacement ratio and damage index than far-field ground motions and most of the practical design scenarios cannot survive the considered near-fault ground motion when the strength reduction factor of bridge is not less than 5.0. Finally, the spectrum formula is presented as a function of structural period, strength reduction factor, and various column design parameters for far-field and near-fault ground motions by means of the regression analysis of the computed spectra. And based on the developed spectrum formula, a design example of a bridge is presented to illustrate the proposed damage-based seismic design and evaluation method where the damage state of the bridge is used as the performance objective.

Keywords: damage index, far-field, near-fault, reinforced concrete bridge, seismic design and evaluation

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan

Abstract:

The article analyzes problems of improving the management systems of the ownership risks in the conditions of the transformation of the Russian economy. Among the main sources of threats business owners should highlight is the inefficiency of the implementation of business models and interaction with hired managers. In this context, it is particularly important to analyze the relationship of business models and ownership risks. The analysis of this problem appears to be relevant for a number of reasons: Firstly, the increased risk appetite of the owner directly affects the business model and the composition of his holdings; secondly, owners with significant stakes in the company are factors in the formation of particular types of risks for owners, for which relations have a significant influence on a firm's competitiveness and ultimately determines its survival; and thirdly, inefficient system of management ownership of risk is one of the main causes of mass bankruptcies, which significantly affects the stable operation of the economy as a whole. The separation of the processes of possession, disposal and use in modern organizations is the cause of not only problems in the process of interaction between the owner and managers in managing the organization as a whole, but also the asymmetric information about the kinds and forms of the main risks. Managers tend to avoid risky projects, inhibit the diversification of the organization's assets, while owners can insist on the development of such projects, with the aim not only of creating new values for themselves and consumers, but also increasing the value of the company as a result of increasing capital. In terms of separating ownership and management, evaluation of projects by the ratio of risk-yield requires preservation of the influence of the owner on the process of development and making management decisions. It is obvious that without a clearly structured system of participation of the owner in managing the risks of their business, further development is hopeless. In modern conditions of forming a risk management system, owners are compelled to compromise between the desire to increase the organization's ability to produce new value, and, consequently, increase its cost due to the implementation of risky projects and the need to tolerate the cost of lost opportunities of risk diversification. Improving the effectiveness of the management of ownership risks may also contribute to the revitalization of creditors on implementation claims to inefficient owners, which ultimately will contribute to the efficiency models of ownership control to exclude variants of insolvency. It is obvious that in modern conditions, the success of the model of the ownership of risk management and audit is largely determined by the ability and willingness of the owner to find a compromise between potential opportunities for expanding the firm's ability to create new value through risk and maintaining the current level of new value creation and an acceptable level of risk through the use of models of diversification.

Keywords: improving, ownership risks, problem, Russia

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Authors: O. Adjoul, A. Feugier, K. Benfriha, A. Aoussat

Abstract:

In general, issues related to design and maintenance are considered in an independent manner. However, the decisions made in these two sets influence each other. The design for maintenance is considered an opportunity to optimize the life cycle cost of a product, particularly in the nuclear or aeronautical field, where maintenance expenses represent more than 60% of life cycle costs. The design of large-scale systems starts with product architecture, a choice of components in terms of cost, reliability, weight and other attributes, corresponding to the specifications. On the other hand, the design must take into account maintenance by improving, in particular, real-time monitoring of equipment through the integration of new technologies such as connected sensors and intelligent actuators. We noticed that different approaches used in the Design For Maintenance (DFM) methods are limited to the simultaneous characterization of the reliability and maintainability of a multi-component system. This article proposes a method of DFM that assists designers to propose dynamic maintenance for multi-component industrial systems. The term "dynamic" refers to the ability to integrate available monitoring data to adapt the maintenance decision in real time. The goal is to maximize the availability of the system at a given life cycle cost. This paper presents an approach for simultaneous optimization of the design and maintenance of multi-component systems. Here the design is characterized by four decision variables for each component (reliability level, maintainability level, redundancy level, and level of monitoring data). The maintenance is characterized by two decision variables (the dates of the maintenance stops and the maintenance operations to be performed on the system during these stops). The DFM model helps the designers choose technical solutions for the large-scale industrial products. Large-scale refers to the complex multi-component industrial systems and long life-cycle, such as trains, aircraft, etc. The method is based on a two-level hybrid algorithm for simultaneous optimization of design and maintenance, using genetic algorithms. The first level is to select a design solution for a given system that considers the life cycle cost and the reliability. The second level consists of determining a dynamic and optimal maintenance plan to be deployed for a design solution. This level is based on the Maintenance Free Operating Period (MFOP) concept, which takes into account the decision criteria such as, total reliability, maintenance cost and maintenance time. Depending on the life cycle duration, the desired availability, and the desired business model (sales or rental), this tool provides visibility of overall costs and optimal product architecture.

Keywords: availability, design for maintenance (DFM), dynamic maintenance, life cycle cost (LCC), maintenance free operating period (MFOP), simultaneous optimization

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Authors: Bahlouli Ahmed, Bentalab Nourdin, Nigrou Mourad

Abstract:

This study was aimed at investigating the effect of orientation fiber reinforced on dynamic properties of laminate composite FRP. An experimental investigation is implemented using an impulse technique. The various specimens are excited in free vibration by the use of bi-channel Analyzer. The experimental results are compared by model of finite element analysis using ANSYS. The results studies (natural frequencies measurements, vibration mode, dynamic modulus and damping ratio) show that the effects of significant parameters such as lay-up and stacking sequence, boundary conditions and excitation place of accelerometer. These results are critically examined and discussed. The accuracy of these results is demonstrated by comparing results with those available in the literature.

Keywords: natural frequency, damping ratio, laminate composite, dynamic modulus

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Mohammed AL-Hasani

Abstract:

The Pandemic COVID-19 altered the daily habits and affected the functional performance of the cities after this crisis leaving remarkable impacts on many metropolises worldwide. It is so obvious that having more densification in the city leads to more threats altering this main approach that was called for achieving sustainable development. The main goal to achieve resiliency in the cities, especially in forcing risks, is to deal with a planning system that is able to resist, absorb, accommodate and recover from the impacts that had been affected. Many Cities in London, Wuhan, New York, and others worldwide carried different planning approaches and varied in reaction to safeguard the impacts of the pandemic. The cities globally varied from the radiant pattern predicted by Le Corbusier, or having multi urban centers more like the approach of Frank Lloyd Wright’s Broadacre City, or having linear growth or gridiron expansion that was common by Doxiadis, compact pattern, and many other hygiene patterns. These urban patterns shape the spatial distribution and Identify both open and natural spaces with gentrified and gentrifying areas. This crisis paid attention to reassess many planning approaches and examine the existing urban patterns focusing more on the aim of continuity and resiliency in managing the crises within the rapid transformation and the power of market forces. According to that, this paper hypothesized that those urban planning patterns determine the method of reaction in assuring quarantine for the inhabitance and the performance of public services and need to be updated through carrying out an innovative urban management system and adopt further resilience patterns in prospective urban planning approaches. This paper investigates the adaptivity and resiliency of variant urban planning patterns regarding selected cities worldwide that affected by COVID-19 and their role in applying certain management strategies in controlling the pandemic spread, finding out the main potentials that should be included in prospective planning approaches. The examination encompasses the spatial arrangement, blocks definition, plots arrangement, and urban space typologies. This paper aims to investigate the urban patterns to deliberate also the debate between densification as one of the more sustainable planning approaches and disaggregation tendency that was followed after the pandemic by restructuring and managing its application according to the assessment of the spatial distribution and urban patterns. The biggest long-term threat to dense cities proves the need to shift to online working and telecommuting, creating a mixture between using cyber and urban spaces to remobilize the city. Reassessing spatial design and growth, open spaces, urban population density, and public awareness are the main solutions that should be carried out to face the outbreak in our current cities that should be managed from global to tertiary levels and could develop criteria for designing the prospective cities

Keywords: COVID-19, densification, resiliency, urban patterns

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Authors: Ciro Moreno-Ramirez, Maria Tomas-Rodriguez, Simos A. Evangelou

Abstract:

A motorcycle's front end links the front wheel to the motorcycle's chassis and has two main functions: the front wheel suspension and the vehicle steering. Up to this date, several suspension systems have been developed in order to achieve the best possible front end behavior, being the telescopic fork the most common one and already subjected to several years of study in terms of its kinematics, dynamics, stability and control. A motorcycle telescopic fork suspension model consists of a couple of outer tubes which contain the suspension components (coil springs and dampers) internally and two inner tubes which slide into the outer ones allowing the suspension travel. The outer tubes are attached to the frame through two triple trees which connect the front end to the main frame through the steering bearings and allow the front wheel to turn about the steering axis. This system keeps the front wheel's displacement in a straight line parallel to the steering axis. However, there exist alternative suspension designs that allow different trajectories of the front wheel with the suspension travel. In this contribution, the authors investigate an alternative front suspension system (Hossack suspension) and its influence on the motorcycle nonlinear dynamics to identify and reduce stability risks that a new suspension systems may introduce in the motorcycle dynamics. Based on an existing high-fidelity motorcycle mathematical model, the front end geometry is modified to accommodate a Hossack suspension system. It is characterized by a double wishbone design that varies the front end geometry on certain maneuverings and, consequently, the machine's behavior/response. It consists of a double wishbone structure directly attached to the chassis. In here, the kinematics of this system and its impact on the motorcycle performance/stability are analyzed and compared to the well known telescopic fork suspension system. The framework of this research is the mathematical modelling and numerical simulation. Full stability analyses are performed in order to understand how the motorcycle dynamics may be affected by the newly introduced front end design. This study is carried out by a combination of nonlinear dynamical simulation and root-loci methods. A modal analysis is performed in order to get a deeper understanding of the different modes of oscillation and how the Hossack suspension system affects them. The results show that different kinematic designs of a double wishbone suspension systems do not modify the general motorcycle's stability. The normal modes properties remain unaffected by the new geometrical configurations. However, these normal modes differ from one suspension system to the other. It is seen that the normal modes behaviour depends on various important dynamic parameters, such as the front frame flexibility, the steering damping coefficient and the centre of mass location.

Keywords: nonlinear mechanical systems, motorcycle dynamics, suspension systems, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 211